On Lucas Leiva

The inevitable finally happens. After 10 seasons at the club – Liverpool's longest serving player by some distance – Lucas is moving to Lazio for a rumored £5m. It's a day long in coming, a day filled with happy memories, but also a day filled with regret. And sadness.

And with a couple of what-ifs.

What if Lucas Leiva scores on his league debut, coming on as a substitute for Steven Gerrard in a Merseyside Derby at Everton with the score 1-1? A goal-bound shot in added time, saved on the line by Phil Neville's handball. Dirk Kuyt scored the resulting penalty for Liverpool's win, but I still wonder if Lucas' career would've turned out differently had he been the hero.

More meaningfully, what if Lucas doesn't blow out his ACL in a League Cup match against Chelsea in November 2011? He's in the best form of his career after nearly being sold in the summer of 2010 by Roy Hodgson, notably dominant in the previous match, a 1-1 draw against eventual league winners Manchester City. He's the linchpin of Liverpool's midfield under Kenny Dalglish, a side finally returning to form after the Hodgson horrors. And it wasn't a stepped-wrong, would-probably-have-eventually-happened-regardless injury. It came from contact: first, a bad foul from Ramires, then a collision with Mata less than a minute later. In a League Cup match, more than an hour in, with the tie all but won. And Liverpool's medical staff sent him back on to play for three more minutes before he finally came off, unable to get off of Chelsea's pitch under his own weight.

That season, and the season before, Lucas might not have been Liverpool's best player, but there was a case to be made that he was Liverpool's most important. Gerrard had been dealing with injuries, and would do so off and on for all of 2011-12. Lucas' back-ups were Charlie Adam and Jay Spearing. Jordan Henderson, signed that summer, was used as a tucked-in winger as often as an orthodox central midfielder. So, unsurprisingly, Liverpool are notably worse without him, for the rest of the season. Liverpool end the campaign as League Cup winners and FA Cup runners-up, but finish eighth in the league. And Kenny Dalglish gets fired.

And, honestly, Lucas is never the same player again.

Lucas played more than 2800 Premier League minutes in each of the two seasons before that ACL injury, making 32 league starts in both campaigns. He never played more than 2000 league minutes in a season again.

Nevertheless, Lucas ends his Liverpool career with 346 appearances, the 46th-most all-time. He's 6th in Premier League appearances – behind only Carragher, Gerrard, Hyypiä, Reina, and Fowler.

Since World War II, there have been only four non-British or Irish Liverpool players to last at least 10 years with the club. Lucas Leiva is one. The others are Bruce Grobbelaar, Jan Mølby, and Sami Hyypiä. Grobbelaar, Hyypiä, Pepe Reina, and John Arne Riise are the only non-British or non-Irish players with more Liverpool appearances than Lucas Leiva.

Lucas has made the most Premier League appearances of any Brazilian player. Nobby Solano and Antonio Valencia are the only South American players with more than Lucas.

That's some company.

And no one could or would have predicted it ten years ago.



Incidentally, Lucas made his debut in the same match as Sebastian Leto: a 4-0 win over Toulouse in the Champions League qualifying round. Leto started. Lucas came on as a substitute, replacing Momo Sissoko. Leto made just four appearances for Liverpool, none in the league, mainly due to work permit problems. I'm fairly certain most would have expected Leto to do more in a Liverpool shirt than Lucas Leiva would.

Lucas would have to wait three months to make his first Premier League start.



There are some fun names in those two sides. And some very good players. It is safe to say he's seen quite a bit of change over the last 10 seasons.









It has been an eventual 10 seasons. As I suspect you remember.

Lucas has played alongside just shy of 120 different Liverpool players. For five different managers. Five very different managers: Rafa Benitez, Roy Hodgson, Kenny Dalglish, Brendan Rodgers, and Jürgen Klopp.

He came billed as a Bola de Ouro-winning box-to-box midfielder – taking the Brazilian league award a year after Carlos Tevez won it – then grew into an at-times-dominant defensive midfielder after a period of adjustment, and finished his tenure as a reserve splitting time between holding midfielder and center-back.

From young golden hope, to scapegoat, to under-appreciated internet darling, to one of the first names on the teamsheet, to useful squad player, to cagey veteran, to cult hero.

From this:



To this:



Time makes fools of us all.

He remains a still-valuable member of the squad, if only for his presence in the dressing room and institutional memory. Sure, he's still more than capable of putting in good games, even if it's mixed with poor ones and mistakes. One week, he'd stuff Harry Kane in his pocket. The next, he's being beaten all ends up by Jamie Vardy. He'd become serviceable but not great at both defensive midfielder and center-back, and he's probably not good enough to play more than a few games at either position in a side being built to compete for the Premier League title.

But, at this point in his career, it seemed the legacy that mattered more. He was the last player signed by Rafa Benitez still at the club. He made it through both Hicks and Gillett, and Roy Hodgson. He played a fairly substantial role in two of the best Liverpool sides in the last 25 years, and played for the side which tallied Liverpool's lowest points total in a league campaign since the switch to three points for a win (which, coincidentally, was Lucas' ACL injury season). He'd become a Liverpool fixture, wholly understanding both club and city. At the absolute least, I suspect he was crucial in helping Coutinho and Firmino adjust to life at Liverpool. And, I mean, the man did this. "Unluckeeeeeeee" will live long in the memory.

Liverpool's longest serving player is now Liverpool's captain: Jordan Henderson, who joined the club in June 2011. Who has made 107 fewer appearances for Liverpool than Lucas Leiva. Who is still only 27 years old. And who also embarrassed himself in all sorts of ways in that "Unluckeeee" video, but that's not really here nor there.

For better and for worse, one of the youngest sides in the league has gotten even younger.

To be fair, it's time for Lucas to move on. Long past time if you believe some, but the right time in my opinion. That doesn't make it any less sad. But I'm still proud that Lucas Leiva played 10 seasons for Liverpool. I'm still delighted that Liverpool didn't sell him in 2010, or 2014, or 2016. Lucas Leiva still is, and will always be, one of my favorite under-loved Liverpool players from the last 15 years, alongside Agger, alongside Kuyt.

Also, hey, Liverpool, when's the testimonial? You really need to get on that. It's embarrassing that it hasn't already happened.

Obrigado e boa sorte, Lucas.

OYB: Really? A Decade?

If you'll permit me a bit of self-indulgence...

Ten years ago, I started this site out of boredom and a lack of football writing on the internet. Well, ten years and two days ago. I'd like to plead extenuating circumstances as to why this is two days late, but it honestly seems fitting.

Ten years later, we've seen two seasons where Liverpool nearly won the title, and too many more seasons where Liverpool's disappointed us.

Ten years later, I've written 2041 posts, now 2042. Which is probably somewhere around a million words. And, for some reason, y'all read it. Some of it, at least.

So, in looking back, I'd like to highlight a few of my favorites.

The vast majority of links included below came in the last few years. Reading my early stuff is painful, especially in that first year when I had no clue what I wanted this blog to be. There were super short posts, Premier League predictions (which were spectacularly wrong), and actual things written about teams other than Liverpool. It's all quite embarrassing in retrospect. Which, I'm pretty sure, is what everyone always says about stuff they've written.

I'm unsurprisingly proudest of the infographics. I like to think they've gotten a bit better than the first. There are those on Liverpool's season-long goals scored and conceded, in-depth looks at individual players, and an animated chalkboard, among multiple others.

The match infographics have become the most prevalent, my preferred way of looking at a game in a bit more depth than is possible in a post-game write-up. Once again, I like to think they've gotten a bit better than the first.

But the most in-depth – both my favorites and the longest to make – have been about Liverpool's former captain, arguably Liverpool's best player. Steven Gerrard. The man who inspired the line which this website's named after. A career retrospective. His goals, all 186 of them. A timeline of his career with another Liverpool-born legend, Jamie Carragher.

Some of my other favorite stuff's come when working with others, especially the lot over at The Liverpool Offside. A long, long conversation with Ed about Rafa Benitez that came just a few months before he was fired. The 2010-11 Blog Carnival with them, Anfield Asylum, Paisley Gates, and a few other good folks, arguably the best thing to come out of that season (well, after sacking Hodgson and getting rid of Hicks and Gillett and signing Luis Suarez). The 2013 March Madness, where y'all voted on your favorite players from the Premier League era (spoiler: Steven Gerrard won).

And, while I can't take credit for much of this, three outstanding maps – where Liverpool players were born and Liverpool's European games – made by Eben Dennis of Chartophile and LFC Denver.

Ten years ago, there was a dearth of good football writing, whether about Liverpool or the sport in general. Now, there's a plethora. In addition to the above sites, there are This is Anfield, Anfield Index, The Anfield Wrap, The Tomkins Times, Bass Tuned to Red, and numerous others. We've all got our favorites, whether they write about Liverpool, or the Premier League, or international soccer, or analytics, or all of the above. I can't possibly list all the ones I read. I'm sure you read multiple sites that I should but don't know about.

Football writing is in an amazing place.

Long story short, it's been a wild ten years, and this ain't goodbye. My deepest thanks to all who've read, commented, shared, emailed, tweeted. To all who've gotten in touch in any way. It's what makes this worth doing.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-3 Sevilla

Previous Match Infographics: West Brom (a), Chelsea (h), Watford (h), Villarreal (h), Swansea (a), Villarreal (a),Newcastle (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Life is not fair. Sometimes there isn't a storytale ending.

Liverpool needed this. We needed this. And it's all set up perfectly.

The narrative's written. First, Manchester United. Then, that comeback against Dortmund. Then, a comprehensive victory over a similar, higher-in-the-table Spanish side in Villarreal. The overwhelming parallels with Liverpool's Champions League run in Benitez's first season 11 years ago.

Liverpool weather Sevilla's brief early storm. Liverpool are denied five potential penalties – three handballs, two fouls, a handball and foul on the same move in the 12th minute, the third handball seemingly stone-cold certain – but then Liverpool score one of the prettiest strikes you'll see, when Sturridge somehow breaks every one of Newton's laws of motion to score with the outside of his left foot in the 35th minute.

Sevilla had offered next-to-nothing after the first five-to-ten minutes of somewhat frightening possession with no results. Liverpool grew in control and confidence from then on. Sevilla took just one shot in the entire first half: Gamiero's overhead on a scrambled corner, covered by Mignolet if it was on-target at his near post. Liverpool should have made more of their dominance, should have created more chances – and it's not as if we're saying this for the first time this season – but between their control and the lead and the fact that the referee was the only thing keeping Sevilla in the game and THE NARRATIVE, it seemed as if Liverpool would be okay. Liverpool would continue to do good things in the second half, eventually get the second, and lift that much-needed trophy.

Whoops.

Ever heard the phrase "a game of two halves"? The Europa League final is like its platonic essence. pic.twitter.com/l7smD8mAfz

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) May 18, 2016

In the future, maybe don't concede 18 seconds after the restart.

It's hard to do more than scapegoat Alberto Moreno and ready the rocket to fire him into the sun. First, the weak clearing header to Mariano on Escudero's hopeful cross-field ball. Then, brainlessly charging in and trying to tackle rather getting into position to push Mariano wide or to the byline; he gave Mariano an angle rather than removing one, and reduced the amount of time Liverpool's other defenders had to get into position. He's got a record of doing similar over and over and over and etc.

To be slightly fairer, Moreno's not the only one at fault: Coutinho wandered into the middle on the kick-off, coming in to "track" N'Zonzi (who looking like coming forward but quickly retreated into his midfield position) rather than the right-back he should be up against, leaving Moreno to defend the entire side of his pitch when Escudero crossed; both Toure and Lovren were caught flat-footed on Mariano's centered pass, marking the same space which Can pretty much had covered; and at the last second, Toure tries to play the offside trap, which wouldn't have worked and he was the only one to do so. Sigh. And let's give credit where it's due: that was a lovely step inside and nutmeg by Mariano.

Most importantly, Liverpool still had 45 minutes to reassert themselves despite the set-back. There was still an entire half left.

Put simply – maybe too simply, but I doubt it – Liverpool lost their heads. "Oh shit, here we go again. And it's the final! Why, lord, why?!" Sevilla, who hadn't won this competition the last two seasons on blind luck, didn't lose theirs. They regrouped at halftime. They got the early goal and pushed for more. They got the needed bit of luck and combined it with an absolutely brilliant 25 minutes of football.



They broke Liverpool's lines, something they'd wholly failed to do in the first half. They beat and bypassed Liverpool's counter-press, most notably on the second goal. That was a thing of beauty. A bit of patience in their own half to draw Liverpool's attackers into the press then out of position, then Vitolo to Coke to Vitolo to Banega to Vitolo to Coke to smash through Liverpool's midfield. It was pass and move football that the all-conquering Liverpool side in the 1980s would've been proud of.

Sevilla should have scored a second long before then, with Liverpool given a short reprieve first by Toure's last-ditch recovery tackle in the 48th, then Mignolet's point-blank save on Gamiero in the 60th. The first with Can and the center-backs the only Liverpool players in Liverpool's half (and all three fairly high up the pitch) as Liverpool pressed too hard too fast to get back in the game and lost consecutive aerial duels in midfield, with Gamiero released by an easy throughball; the second from a set play (Escudero's long throw) because of course there has to be at least one set play involved.

And then there's Sevilla's third. A flawless, cue-Yakety-Sax, oh-so-Liverpool capstone six minutes after Coke gave Sevilla the lead: first, Can's slip and giveaway in midfield, then Clyne's tackle at the top of the box hitting Coutinho and ricocheting perfectly for a wide-open Coke seven yards from goal, onside because of Liverpool's touches, with Mignolet unable to do much about it. As many Liverpool players were involved in the build-up to that goal as Sevilla players.

You need that bit of luck in finals. And you need talent, which Sevilla simply had more of, fully on display in the 25 minutes after halftime. And you need self-belief, which seemed to completely evaporate after Sevilla's first goal.

The belief we saw against Dortmund simply wasn't there. Liverpool did not, could not regroup. Sure, Klopp probably should have made changes earlier (*glares at 2-3 Southampton and 2-2 Newcastle*), but you've got to credit Sevilla for a good bit of that.

Got interested in the age structure of @SevillaFC_ENG squad after reading about their scouting process @EuropaLeague pic.twitter.com/8dpQOkVBSC

— FitbaFancyStats (@226blog) May 18, 2016

.And here is @LFC for comparison @EuropaLeague pic.twitter.com/ln4N9l7dmn

— FitbaFancyStats (@226blog) May 18, 2016

Experience matters. Sevilla, and the majority of these players, had been here before. Have won things before. Five of Sevilla's starters also started last year's final, with three others involved as substitutes. Liverpool, the vast majority of these players, haven't. The first hill is always hardest to climb.

This is how far Liverpool still have to go. A young side, nowhere near built in the new manager's image yet. A new manager who came in midseason, had to work with this unbalanced squad, and had to cope with numerous injuries and more matches than any of his teams' have ever played in a single season.

Yes, Liverpool lost two cup finals. And it really hurts. You can't help but wonder what might have been: both the relief of rejoining the big kids' table and the doors that qualification to next season's Champions League could have opened.

But Liverpool hadn't been in a single cup final since 2011-12, when Dalglish's side won the Carling Cup against second-division Cardiff on penalties and lost in the FA Cup to Chelsea. Those are the only two cup finals Liverpool have been in since Athens 2007. Nine years ago. Since then, we've seen Hicks and Gillett's attempt to gut the club, Benitez coming close to in the league and Europa League then getting sacked, The Hodge, Dalglish, and Rodgers. We've seen league finishes of 2nd, 7th, 6th, 8th, 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 8th.

And Klopp somehow got Liverpool to two cup finals in his first abbreviated season.

There is still a lot of work to be done. A lot of room for growth, for players individually and Liverpool as both a team and a club. And it's going to be a very interesting summer; in Klopp's first at Dortmund, they brought in 11 players (six for a fee, two free transfers, Schmelzer promoted from the youth squad, Kevin Prince-Boateng on-loan, and Sahin's return from loan) and sold or released nine.

It's been less than 24 hours, and I've mostly processed this. Accepted this. Mostly. As much as I can, and as much as I will. And I don't want to eulogize this match or this season (although, as usual, there will probably be a lot of season wrap-up graphics and stuff over the next few weeks). I just want next season now. Optimism, which still remains despite this setback and this season, is a hell of a drug. It's one we've been without for far too long.

Up the Reds.

On Simon Mignolet

The official site just posted confirmation of Simon Mignolet's move to Liverpool, the club's fourth summer signing after Kolo Toure, Luis Alberto, and Iago Aspas. And it's only June 25. Sometimes, I don't recognize this Liverpool anymore.

So what kind of goalkeeper is Liverpool getting?




Wow, what an upgrade! Liverpool are going from a keeper who saved just 42 shots on target last season, 55% of the shots on target he faced, to a keeper who saved 124 shots, slightly less than 70% of the opposition shots on target. Mignolet averaged 3.26 saves per match, Reina averaged 1.35.

And here are the locations, via Squawka, of both saves made and goals conceded.




Mignolet allowed more in the center of the goal and the top right corner but saved loads more low shots to the bottom corners, while Reina allowed notably more low to his right.

Okay. Of course, it's not as clear cut as shots saved and goals conceded totals.

Reina, in seven fewer league appearances, faced fewer than half the amount of shots on target as Mignolet, which makes fairly clear the difference in playing for Liverpool versus playing for Sunderland. The most shots on target Mignolet faced in a single match was 11, against Tottenham on the last day, but he also saw 10 from Liverpool and Villa, eight from Arsenal, and seven from City and Wigan. The most Reina saw in a single match was five: from Spurs (a), Stoke (a), and Wigan (a). Five shots on target would have been a fairly easy day for Mignolet last season. If your defense is allowing that many more shots, especially shots from distance, you're bound to come up with a few more saves.

And almost as important as save percentage is the goalkeeper's distribution. Reina's passing from the back has been one of his biggest assets during his Liverpool tenure, and it's especially crucial in Brendan Rodgers' system, where every defensive player needs to be comfortable with the ball at his feet.

Mignolet completed just 41.4% of his passes last season; 746 attempted, 306 successful. Reina completed 70.8%; 692 attempted, 490 successful. The average length of a Mignolet pass was 51 meters; Reina's average was 36 meters. Sure, much of that may have to do with both Martin O'Neill and Paolo di Canio's managerial preferences – especially's O'Neill love of hoofing and hoping – but in naming him player of the season, the incomparable Sunderland blog Roker Report notably mentioned Mignolet's need to improve his distribution. That's no small matter at Liverpool.

In addition to his outstanding save percentage, Mignolet also had a higher success rate claiming crosses and punching clear than Reina, although both were well above the league average.

The Belgian was the best keeper in the league last season according to WhoScored's player rating, but the fourth highest-rated by Squawka, behind Cech, Begovic, and Pepe Reina, mainly due to his horrific possession score.

Despite Liverpool's claims to the contrary, you'd have to assume this signals the end for Pepe Reina, whether he leaves this summer or next summer. We've seen quotes to the contrary from both Reina and Rodgers, but you rarely buy a £9m keeper just for "competition" (*ignores references to Chris Kirkland*).

And Pepe Reina is both one of Liverpool's longest serving players and biggest personalities in the dressing room. His exit in the same summer as Jamie Carragher's retirement would leave a massive, gaping hole in the squad. Only Gerrard and Brad Jones will be 30 years or older, only Gerrard has been at the club longer than Reina. Only Gerrard, Agger, Lucas, and Skrtel would have made their debuts prior to the 2009-10 season, when Liverpool began this Hicks & Gillet-induced decline they've yet to recover from. That's a starling lack of institutional memory.

Still, I guess change has to happen sometime.

Both Mignolet and Reina are excellent keepers, despite Reina's drop in form last season (and then subsequent improvement as the season went on). But Pepe Reina is 30 years old, soon to be 31, and rumored to be on wages of approximately £100k a week. Simon Mignolet is six years younger, and will probably earn about half of Reina's wages, at most. Which is around £2.5m-per-year difference.

That, coupled with Reina's longing glances toward Barcelona, whether this summer or next summer, is pretty much the alpha and omega of this deal. For a change, Liverpool are proactive in dealing with a key player's possible exit. A welcome change. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a better young keeper in the Premier League who's available for less money.

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If it's not clear from the multiple links, this would have been vastly more difficult without Squawka, who are, hands down, one of the best resources for football analysis.

On Philippe Coutinho

Finally passing his medical and approved for a work permit, Philippe Coutinho is the 15th player bought since FSG took control of the club. 10 of the previous 14 are still with the club: Suarez, Henderson, Downing, Enrique, Coates, Borini, Allen, Assaidi, Yesil, and Sturridge (no, we're not counting Carroll or Doni). The average age of those players when they signed was 22.5. Downing was the only older than 25, Enrique was 25, and Suarez had just turned 24. Everyone else was 23 or younger.

Compare that to the players brought in during the summer of 2010, the last Hicks and Gillett transfer window: Jovanovic (29), Cole (28), Aurelio (29), Poulsen (30), Jones (28), Meireles (27), Konchesky (29), Shelvey (18), and Wilson (18). While Shelvey, Flanagan, Wilson, Eccleston, Pacheco, and Robinson – all younger than 20 – made appearances that season, you also may remember the likes of Kuyt, Poulsen, Maxi, Kyrgiakos, Konchesky, Aurelio (when actually fit), and Jovanovic playing key roles, especially under Hogdson. All were either 29 or 30. The only players in this season's squad who are that age or older are Carragher, Gerrard, Reina, and Jones.

Liverpool are not wholly without experience. In addition to those four who are 30 or older, Agger, Skrtel, Downing, and Johnson are 28; Suarez, Enrique, and Lucas are 26. Still, Liverpool are the only club to name three teenagers in a Premiership starting XI this season. They've done it in six of the 23 league matches.

That was a long, somewhat tangential introduction to that fact that Philippe Coutinho is 20. If you hadn't heard.

In theory, Coutinho is a player who fits into Rodgers' system, whether 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. Predominantly right-footed but capable with his left, Coutinho is versatile enough to play anywhere along the attacking line of three. He made his Inter debut under Rafa Benitez, most often as a left-sided attacker, but has increasingly preferred to play as a central attacking midfielder, a #10 in the vein of how Suarez has played in the last 135 minutes of league football, a player who wants the ball at his feet, taking on a defender one-on-one.

Making just a handful of appearances for Inter this season, he's started in all four attacking positions: as a forward, on the left, on the right, and in the hole. His preferred position has usually been filled by Guarin or Palacio. With Stramaccioni often using three at the back, the width has primarily come from wing-backs or out-and-out forwards rather than midfielders, which is why more of Coutinho's appearances this season have come in the front three.



He's only started three league matches, also making seven substitute appearances, but started five of Inter's six Europa League group stage matches. Only Bayer Leverkusen's Karim Bellarabi, who's played in just two matches, is averaging more successful dribbles per match in that competition. There are just nine players who are averaging more shots per Europa League match than Coutinho (he's even averaging more shots than Suarez, although both players have scored just once).

Given his paucity of opportunities at Inter following the departure of Benitez, a loan to Espanyol last season came at a crucial time. Coutinho made 14 starts during his loan at Espanyol last season: 10 were on the left of Pochettino's 4-2-3-1, two were on the right, and two were as the #10. Only Sergio Garcia took more shots per game for Espanyol last season, only Garcia and Vladimir Weiss averaged more successful dribbles. All five of Coutinho's goals and his lone assist came as a left-sided attacker. This seems his most likely position at Liverpool, but it's also where Borini has looked most comfortable in his few appearances, as well as Sterling's preferred position.

The Score, In Bed With Maradona, and the Daily Mirror (I know, right?) have excellent articles about Coutinho's progress and promise if you're interested.

My short version: it's another raw attacker added to a still developing group. Rodgers already has to figure out how to combine Sturridge, Suarez, and the returning Borini (which went, um, poorly last time out); now he's adding another laden-with-potential youngling to the mix. And, of course, I can't go without mentioning that Coutinho will almost assuredly need time to adapt to the Premier League. Brazilian-born and coming from Serie A? Double whammy.

Have you repressed Oldham yet? I apologize for digging at recently formed scabs, but it's not as if Liverpool's problem appeared to be in attack, despite scoring just twice against the League One side. Liverpool were young (the starting XI had an average age of 22.7; only Skrtel and Jones were over 23), Liverpool were unbalanced, and Liverpool were outmuscled. Liverpool can be both mentally and physically fragile, and Liverpool are inexperienced. Coutinho, while an incredible prospect, addresses none of those concerns.

He has piles and piles of potential, but he is a project. Liverpool already have an awful lot of projects.

Also, loan Suso. Immediately. From all I've read and seen, he's the most similar to Coutinho in Liverpool's squad, if younger and even more inexperienced.

2012-13 Liverpool Season Preview

Year Zero? Year Zero.

Is this the third year zero or the first? It's the third year in a row where Liverpool have started the season with a new manager, something that's never happened in the club's 120-year history. Brendan Rodgers replaces Dalglish who replaced Hodgson who replaced Benitez. But if Hodgson wasn't year zero and Dalglish wasn't year zero, why is Rodgers?

Hodgson was the last dismal dying breath of the previous owners' malignant regime. Dalglish was never FSG's choice for Liverpool's renaissance, with their hand forced by the surprisingly improved results during the 2010-11 run-in. Brendan Rodgers is FSG's first manager, and their ownership will be defined by his results – not necessarily this season's results, but over the long term. Because this is a long-term hire. Which is why this is much more a year zero than any Liverpool season since 2004-05.

Summer Business:
In: Joe Allen (£15m), Fabio Borini (£10.4m) = £25.4m
Out: Alberto Aquilani (£7m), Fabio Aurelio (free), Craig Bellamy (free), Dirk Kuyt (£1m), Maxi Rodriguez (free) = £8m

Rodgers impressed FSG so much that they did away with their notion of a director of football, although Damien Comolli's almost-wholly inauspicious tenure may have made that an easier decision.

Comolli's one true success – aside from signing Luis Suarez, of course – was last summer's deadwood clear-out. Joe Cole somehow found his way back, but Konchesky, Poulsen, Jovanovic, Kyrgiakos, El Zhar, and Degen got gone and stayed gone, saving Liverpool millions after Hicks, Gillett, Purslow, and Hodgson wasted more millions on their purchases and salaries.

And as with last summer, Liverpool prioritized clearing out older players on relatively high wages, slash-and-burn agriculture so new fields can start from scratch. Or as close to scratch as possible.

If reports are to be believed, Rodgers didn't want to lose either Bellamy and Maxi – both would have fit fairly flawlessly into the new system – but relented to let them join boyhood favorites in their home countries. How touching. Kuyt was one of Liverpool's highest earners and a fan favorite, but his increasingly decreasing output made him more than expendable. We've finally passed the point of no return with Alberto Aquilani: no more band-aid loans, no more false hope that this might be the year where he returns to save the world. All, along with the sadly perpetually-broken Fabio Aurelio, cost Liverpool more than they were worth to the club or Rodgers' squad.

Rodgers first two signings followed this new template. Both are under 22, Premiership-experienced, teeming-with-potential starlets who've already made international debuts. Both are prototypical Rodgers-style players who Rodgers has managed before, and both fill problem areas from last season's Liverpool squad. And, incidentally, neither happen to be English.

The summer's business isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, and probably won't be until the last minute and last second of the transfer window. Liverpool will continue to try to sell Carroll, hoping that someone will pay somewhere near £20m and Carroll might actually agree to the move. We can scream, shout, and threaten all we want, but if City stump up £27m, Daniel Agger will probably depart as well. I am not liable for my words or actions if that happens, but we'll burn that bridge if we come to it.

Despite a still somewhat-too-shallow squad, there's only one huge hole apparent. And it's the drum I've been banging all summer: Liverpool needs needs needs at least one more wide forward to compete with Borini, Downing, Sterling, and Cole (and sometimes, possibly, Suarez). We've seen Clint Dempsey, Cristian Tello, Theo Walcott, Adam Johnson, and Gaston Ramirez mooted, but we've no idea who, if any, the club prefers. Or could get. Which, I guess, it how it should be. That Shelvey was used there for 45 minutes in Sunday's friendly – a position he played while on loan at Blackpool but assuredly isn't his best – demonstrates that the manager's cognizant of the issue as well. But whether he's able to rectify it before August 31 remains to be seen.

Expected Formation and Suspected Depth Chart:



Otherwise, Liverpool has a fairly strong first XI, and a fair bit of depth in certain positions. With the signing of Joe Allen, Liverpool has an impressive, versatile, and relatively youthful central midfield. Nearly every three-man midfield is built on the creator-passer-destroyer archetype: Gerrard, Henderson, Shelvey, and potentially Adam can play as the attacking midfielder creator; Allen, Henderson, Shelvey, and Adam can fill the passer role; and Lucas, Allen, and Spearing can play as the deeper destroyer. All but Gerrard are 26 or younger; Adam is 26, Lucas 25, Spearing 23, Allen and Henderson 22, and Shelvey is 20. If Liverpool sign Nuri Sahin on loan, as has been heavily rumored, the midfield will be even stronger, but that would seemingly demand someone make way, whether it's Shelvey loaned out or Adam sold.

If Agger stays (pleasepleaseplease don't make me beg), Liverpool's first-choice defense should remain one of the strongest in the league. He and Skrtel are arguably the best center-back pairing in the Premiership, while Glen Johnson is one of the best right-backs and Jose Enrique – for all his faults, especially in the opposition half – is at least "above average." Only City and United conceded fewer goals last season, with 29 and 33 to Liverpool's 40 (Everton also conceded 40). As with everywhere else in the squad, depth is a concern (except at right back), but Carragher remains serviceable – and, on the whole, impressed in preseason – while Coates has clear potential. Danny Wilson, Stephen Sama, and Andre Wisdom all made preseason appearances as well, and could all benefit from loan moves. Jack Robinson is another for the future, while both Johnson and Kelly can also deputize at left-back if need be.

Suarez, Borini, and Carroll (with the now-usual "if he stays" caveat) can all play as the central striker, with Morgan as fourth-choice back-up if the other three are somehow absent. None can replicate Suarez's all-around brilliance, but Borini has played as the focal point in Rodgers' system before, while Carroll demonstrated that there's at least a chance that he can fit in this style of play against Bayer Leverkusen.

However, the flanks remain an rather large issue. If Downing can continue in the form he's shown on the right in these very early matches, the Borini-Suarez-Downing troika could be very impressive; how they linked up against Gomel is the template, and in theory, should get even better as they familiarize with the system and each other. But if Borini or Suarez are missing, Liverpool could well be in trouble. Deep trouble.

Liverpool are going to play 4-3-3. Whether it's a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-2-3 variant remains to be seen, but the last three matches suggest the former will be the dominant version. Even if Suarez or Gerrard or Lucas or Borini or Allen or whomever is missing, that will almost certainly remain the preferred formation. Liverpool will have to find a way to plug those holes if key players are missing, because the pattern of play will likely remain the same. On the whole, Liverpool should be able to compensate if one or even two of those players are absent, as long as it's not for an extended spell. Any more than that, however…

Miscellaneous Thoughts, Comments, Concerns…
• Whither Fortress Anfield? If we're starting from square one, the first task is improving Liverpool's home form. Liverpool's Anfield winning percentage last season was an abhorrent 32%. Six wins, nine draws, and four losses. A possible 57 points and Liverpool earned just 27, an average of 1.42 points-per-game. The last time Liverpool failed to win less than half of its league matches at Anfield? 2002-03. Prior to that? 1969-1970. Despite the multiple, egregious failings in 2009-10 and 2010-11, Liverpool still won 68% and 63% of its home matches. Hopefully the new red nets portend a better future. It can't get much worse.

• We always complain about the difficulty of the first few fixtures and the necessity of a strong start to begin the campaign on the right foot. But it's exceptionally true this season. Liverpool will face last season's top three within the first five games, albeit at home, with trips to West Brom – against Liverpool's previous assistant manager – and Sunderland – where Liverpool have lost in two of the last three seasons – rounding out the bunch. Incidentally, Sunderland away was the last opening day fixture which Liverpool won, way back in August 2008. Since then, Liverpool have lost, drawn, and drawn its first league match.

The Europa League will also impact those league fixtures. Matches against Manchester City and Arsenal will take place three days after the two legs against Hearts; neither City nor Arsenal will have Champions League matches that week. If Liverpool qualify for the group stage, they'll play United (H), Stoke (H), Everton (A), Chelsea (A), Swansea (A), and West Ham (A) after each of the six group matches. Liverpool's schedule will be far more compressed this season – matches will come fast and furious, on the dreaded Thursday/Sunday schedule more often than not – and it's still more than debatable whether Liverpool has the squad to cope.

• And whether or not Liverpool has the squad to cope with the amount of matches, the club will also remain fairly reliant on Suarez and Gerrard. That's not to downplay the importance of, say, Lucas – especially Lucas, which last season painfully proved – or Agger or Reina, but only those two lightning rods can grab the game by its cliched 'scruff of the neck,' evidenced by the dramatic difference in the home and away legs against Gomel. The two started together in just nine league matches last season, and Gerrard played as a deeper 4-4-2 midfielder in most of them; it should be a much different story if he remains in a more attacking role. Liverpool should be a more cohesive team this season, one of the hallmarks of Rodgers' system, but its fortunes will most likely stay dependent on Gerrard and Suarez's successes. The two combined for 34% of Liverpool Premiership goals last season, 33% of the goals in all competitions. Even if Liverpool gets better production from the supporting cast – and honestly, there's seemingly nowhere to go but up in that category – as those two go, so goes Liverpool. Plus, Lucas. Always Lucas.

• Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good. And Liverpool had less than zero luck last season. The woodwork, the missed penalties, Suarez's suspension, Lucas injured for two-thirds of the season. If Liverpool can convert more clear-cut chances, if Liverpool can keep key players fit and available, then Liverpool will be better. If Liverpool are "luckier" than average, whatever your definition of luck, then Liverpool could be really good. Those are obviously fairly big ifs. Honestly, all I'm asking for is regression – or, more aptly, progression – to the mean.


The usual mantra of "just be better," that all that's required is evolution from the previous season, won't suffice this year. Liverpool should better last season's return, at least in the league, just by showing up. There seems little way that Liverpool could hit the woodwork 33 times or miss five penalties. Liverpool cannot possibly draw 150% more home games than they win.

However, I'm sick of hearing about the importance of fourth, the importance of the Champions League. I imagine you're sick of hearing it too. Of course that's a goal, but it's not an expectation. It can't be an expectation when Liverpool haven't come close to achieving it in the last two seasons.

Still, the core of Suarez, Gerrard, Lucas, Reina, Skrtel, and Johnson (and Agger!) rivals almost any other club at those positions. Borini and Allen are valuable additions, Henderson, Shelvey, and Sterling could well be stars of the future. Once Liverpool's best players became involved, Liverpool looked incredibly promising against both Gomel and Leverkusen. While that's not saying much at this very, very early stage, it's cause for optimism.

And after the last few years, we could certainly do with some optimism.

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Tradition dictates that I restart the OYB fantasy league, after a couple of people asked about it and I got a handful of replies on Twitter. There are almost assuredly no prizes unless advertisers send me free stuff (ps: send me free stuff), and I will probably stop remembering to update my team around November, but dammit, tradition is tradition.

I use the official Premier League game. Create a team, then click "join a league." The entry code for the OYB League is 853013-274016. I'm pretty sure if you were in the league last year and create a team, you'll automatically be re-entered.

Dalglish Out!

I honestly don't know this club anymore. I'd better get used to that fact.

Look, we're all aware this season's results were horrendous. The denizens of the Andromeda Galaxy are aware of that. The fact remains it was one season, the season after Hicks and Gillett nearly destroyed the club and Hodgson helped dig the hole deeper.

Liverpool is not – well, was not – a club that changes managers by the minute. Especially not when the manager is the best player in club history and the last manager to deliver the league title. Hodgson was and remains a special case, for the dire football, brainless remarks, and complete lack of understanding of the club. Dalglish committed none of those sins. But this is increasingly a results-oriented business, with emphasis on the word business. Welcome to 21st-century sport.

Right now, I don't really care about how much Dalglish got to spend, whether gross or net. I don't care who was a Comolli signing and who was a Dalglish signing. FSG gave the club's greatest servant one year to rebuild from ground zero and then sacked him when the team failed to achieve the desired results immediately. I truly despair for the future.

This renders my mostly-written season review moot, but I guess I'll touch upon some of the "highlights" here. For all the bad we saw – and there was an incredible amount of bad – there were positives and are excuses. A trophy, any trophy. The emergence of a top shelf first-choice back four. Much better football, if not results, than we've seen for the majority of the previous two seasons. Liverpool's failure to win close games mostly thanks to an incredulous inability to score goals, finding it easier to hit the woodwork. Liverpool's most important player tearing his ACL in November, Liverpool's best player suspended for nine matches during the heart of the season, Liverpool's aging talisman struggling with injuries for the duration of the campaign.

Admittedly, by the end of the season, I was eminently frustrated by many things about the team and manager, most notably a lack of a cohesive tactical or transfer strategy to go along with questionable personnel decisions throughout the campaign. There were some positive signs and good matches, but Liverpool rarely looked like they knew what they were doing on and off the pitch. That is a very bad thing. I'm still not sure if it's a sackable offense given the above excuses, what (little) Liverpool had accomplished in the two previous seasons, and who said manager is was.

Now, a new manager will start all over, wanting to spend a similar amount to that spent last summer to forge "his team." Liverpool will again (still) need to settle on a preferred plan, preferred formation, and preferred tactics – things which eluded the side for nearly an entire season. There is currently no Director of Football, no Head of Communications, no new stadium, and now, no manager.

Despite the horrific results, there was a foundation in place and good football played on occasion. Now, Liverpool are back to ground zero. And that ground zero is further and further behind the league's front-runners. City will be undoubtedly bolstered by their title victory; the first is always the hardest, and it's always easier to attract players to a winning project, especially with gobs of money. Manchester United is still Manchester United. Odds are that Chelsea again fails to secure Roman's much-desired Champions League (please!), which will give them further impetus to throw unlimited rubles at rebuilding an aging squad. Arsenal and probably Tottenham will have Champions League football and Champions League money to entice players.

This was always the danger of appointing Dalglish. He was not FSG's first choice, and only Hodgson's complete inability to do anything right forced their hand. It was always going to be harder to sack Dalglish if something went wrong, and yes, things went wrong. Still, most managers deserve better, deserve more time, and this man deserves much, much better.

I thought he merited another season if not for the few positives signs than because of who he is and what he's done for the club over the last four decades.

It goes without saying that FSG had better have a plan. And that plan had better work, and soon. This sets a very unwanted precedent. If Dalglish is sacked after one bad season, the next man will get even less time and far less patience.

Why Can't Everything Be Like Last April?

There has been lots of talk around the internet and in the comments of yesterday's match review about this side regressing from last season's run-in. And Dalglish (and Comolli) is obviously at fault and I'm an idiot for holding fire on the manager. Instead of replying under the fold, I figured I'd ramble here on the front page. The short version is that Liverpool weren't as good as you remember last season and aren't are bad as you think now. There. I saved you 1500 words.

But if you're still here...

A five-match stretch from April through early May is used as definitive proof of regression. 3-0 v City, 1-1 at Arsenal, 5-0 v Brum, 3-0 v Newcastle, and 5-2 at Fulham. All very good results. But those results also blind some to the memory of Liverpool losing 1-3 at West Ham, 1-2 at West Brom, 0-2 v Spurs, 0-1 at Aston Villa and insipidly going out of the Europa League, both before and after than five-match stretch.

Regardless, there was some very good football played over that stretch. Some very good football and even better results, which seemingly raised expectations for this season more than a little bit too high. There are also, unsurprisingly, some vast differences between the end of last season and Liverpool's current state.

Goals, goals, goals
Conversion of chances. Pretty much the alpha and omega of Liverpool's problems, as has been written since September. A handful of draws this season (and at least one of the losses) were just about as impressive as last season's large wins in everything but the goals. Liverpool pummeled Sunderland, United, Blackburn, and Stoke, among others, but drew, drew, drew, and lost. Aside from Maxi, who I mentioned in yesterday's review, it's the same players who were scoring at the end of last season who aren't scoring now: Kuyt, Suarez, even Carroll (against City). And not playing Maxi is not the reason Liverpool are tallying fewer than 10% of their chances. At the same time, Liverpool usually played 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 through that run-in, but 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 this season is the devil and should be killed with fire, whether it's Kuyt-Suarez or Carroll-Suarez up front.

As for chances created, the focus of last summer's spending. During that Brum-Newcastle-Fulham stretch, with 13 goals scored, Liverpool created 35 chances – 13 against Birmingham and Fulham, nine against Newcastle. Compare that to three of the eminently-frustrating results mentioned in the previous paragraph. Liverpool created 12 chances against Sunderland, 18 at Stoke, and 19 against Blackburn. And these aren't cherry-picked numbers. Chances created in other disappointing results: 12 at Wigan, 17 at Fulham, 15 against Swansea, 20 against Norwich, etc. All via FourFourTwo's StatsZone.

Two of Liverpool's summer signings, Adam and Downing, have created the most Liverpool chances by some distance. The reason each was purchased. The obvious logic is that more chances created leads to more goals created. This season's done much to kill that notion. Liverpool's attack at the end of last season was ruthless in front of goal. The same front players, on the whole, are the opposite of ruthless this season, and it's not because of fewer opportunities or where they're getting said opportunities.

And it's a problem that grows as the monkey on strikers' back grows. Each miss makes the player think longer and harder about the next. Confidence drains with every post hit and penalty spurned. At the same time, it's far easier to score after scoring. Hot and cold streaks happen in every sport, even when they're sustained over the course of a season. After all we've seen, I still believe one or two ruthless demolitions like we saw 11 months ago changes an awful lot. Much like a fortunate hat-trick against United pushed Kuyt on for the rest of the campaign or, further back, Crouch's first Liverpool goal after a long barren stretch led to him scoring seven in the same month. And Liverpool's current players have ruthless demolitions in them, whether for Liverpool in the past or at their previous clubs. As unfulfilling as it as to credit intangibles like confidence and luck, both go a long way in determining form. Single spark, prairie fire. Yes, still.

Short-term v long-term
Last season's attack during the run-in was consistent; Carroll played against City and Arsenal, but otherwise it was Suarez, Kuyt, Maxi, and Meireles in Liverpool's big wins. That consistent front four was also getting on in years. Kuyt, Suarez, Meireles, and Maxi's average age at the time was 28.5; Kuyt and Maxi were 30, Meireles 28. Keeping the latter and using Kuyt and Maxi more might have led to a few more points this season (although, given Kuyt and Maxi's form when they have played, that's in doubt), but it would also put Liverpool in a worse position long-term, even if Liverpool's most recent signings don't pan out. It's also probably churlish to mention that Meireles has had a stinker of a season for Chelsea.

The damage which Hicks and Gillett inflicted required a massive overhaul, no matter a five-match hot streak with Champions League qualification a lost cause. Liverpool made six summer signings not counting Doni, four of whom usually start if available. The average age of Adam, Bellamy, Coates, Downing, Enrique, and Henderson is 25, which drops to 23.6 without free-transfer Bellamy. Because of Hicks and Gillett (and because of Hodgson's signings), Liverpool had to get younger. And fast. With four to six changes to the first-team, growing pains were inevitable. At least now Liverpool have a foundation for the future. Downing and Adam may have disappointed more than they've impressed, Henderson remains more potential than potent, but those three players still put Liverpool in a better position for the future than Maxi and Meireles did. The squad is now deeper, younger, and more valuable.

Liverpool are in transition. We'd hoped the transition would go more smoothly. We arguably had a right to expect it. It hasn't. Nonetheless, again, aside from that five-match stretch, Liverpool weren't radically better during last season's run-in, simply more ruthless in front of goal. Performances this season, while massively inconsistent, remain better than under Hodgson and 'nearly' as good as during last season's run-in, even if results don't measure up. Because of goal-scoring. Because Suarez and Kuyt and even Carroll aren't scoring as they did at times last season. It's not Adam, Henderson, and Downing's fault those players, in position to score, aren't scoring more.

I love you, Lucas Leiva
Also, this. Goal-scoring may be the alpha and omega, but missing the Brazilian midfielder has been almost as much of an issue. Admittedly, Comolli and Dalglish deserve criticism for not replacing him; Spearing is a useful squad player, but nowhere near Lucas' level, and has played his best football for the club when partnered with Lucas. Spearing's not as effective holding in front of the back four, setting the tempo, starting the attacks, etc. In retrospect, no other absence could have hurt Liverpool's more: not Suarez, not Gerrard, not Agger. Maybe not even Reina.

Also, a lack of Lucas has assuredly hurt Charlie Adam. I maintain what I've said all season: Adam has his faults and his benefits, and the former frequently obscure the latter. Without Lucas, those faults are magnified. That partnership was increasingly potent as they formed an understanding, a near-archetypal blend of creator and destroyer. And without Lucas, Adam (or Gerrard, for that matter) necessarily has more defensive work to do. Which isn't his strong suit in the slightest. Still, it's hard to blame Adam's frequent inability to tackle for Liverpool's problems when conceding goals isn't Liverpool's problem. Liverpool miss Lucas as metronome much more than Lucas as wrecking ball. Which is the one facet that Adam, Gerrard, and Spearing can't replicate.

Liverpool could and should have planned better, but there's only so many fingers to stick in the dike's numerous holes. And Liverpool couldn't have predicted that Lucas would have missed 2/3rds of the season thanks to a freak injury.


There are other, less important excuses. Suarez's stupidly-incurred suspension(s). Gerrard's continued injury problems. Reina conceding a handful more goals because of arguable mistakes. And, yes, a handful of mistakes from the manager: tactical, selection, or substitution. Still, I'm content laying most of the blame with goal-scorers, transition, and a lack of Lucas. One facet at the foot of aforementioned players, two thanks to the cruel hand of fate.

The easiest recommendation is adding an out-and-out scorer, either replacing or in addition to Carroll. As much as I hate writing it, that purchase looks Liverpool's worst business by some distance, record fee or no record fee. I really want to like the player: young, multi-talented (even if he doesn't show it enough), and with a physicality that most defenders can't handle when he's on his game. But goals are the problem and Liverpool's most-expensive striker rarely looks like scoring. When he can even get in the side.

But then again, Andy Carroll is just 23. It could also mean, much to our chagrin, that Liverpool still needs more time to adjust to the past year's overhaul, made with an eye on the future despite short-term hopes for an immediate return to the Champions League.

I'm not exonerating Liverpool's player recruitment or certain team selections. Despite the above excuses, there's still a chance Downing, Adam, Henderson, and/or Carroll don't work out. It was a calculated gamble, one we still can't fully judge. Liverpool's pre-FSG state, Chelsea and City's oil money, United's insane commercial revenue, Financial Fair Play regulations, and no Champions League football means Liverpool have to gamble. But Liverpool also gambled when paying £10m for Alonso, taking West Ham-outcast Mascherano on an expensive loan, and breaking the club transfer record on an unproven-outside-of-Spain Torres. And gambled on Pennant, Gonzalez, Riera, etc solving the non-stop problem on the flanks. Sometimes gambles work and sometimes gambles don't.

All I meant by yesterday's review was that things aren't as bad as some make out and Liverpool's tactics against Arsenal worked well everywhere but in front of goal. We all mock Chelsea for failing to give Villas-Boas time and leeway to make necessary changes, then demand Dalglish return to what worked for a month almost a year ago. No one likes suffering through the short-term in the hopes it'll eventually pay off, but patience remains a virtue. Yes, even when the sky is falling. Which it isn't at the moment. Even if/when Liverpool miss Champions League qualification for next season, there's still a very good chance that patience pays off in the future.

Close a window, open a door

Once again, the deadline headline is Liverpool's hands forced by Chelsea's last-minute pillaging. Unable to get Modric or Moutinho, Chelsea settled for yet another Liverpool player who scored the most-recent winner against them. With less than half an hour left in the window, Meireles' transfer request was made public and a £12m deal announced. Takes some of the shine off the most successful transfer window in recent history.

Meireles was going to be a squad player this season. A versatile, useful squad player, but a squad player nonetheless. Gerrard, Suarez, and Henderson are preferred behind the striker in a 4-2-3-1. Gerrard, Lucas, Adam, and Henderson are preferred in central midfield. Kuyt, Henderson and Downing are preferred on the right, and Downing, Maxi, and now Bellamy are preferred on the left. Liverpool have depth to cover all the positions Meireles could cover, but more cover is usually more better, especially with Meireles' clear talents. He linked (and seemed to get along) brilliantly with Suarez, Maxi, and Lucas and was one of last season's few revelations until Dalglish took the reins. But he understandably wanted a raise, FSG understandably didn't want to give him one (or one as large as he wanted), and Liverpool made a small bit of money on a 28-year-old back-up after one good year. C'est la guerre. Shelvey will get his minutes. My lone concern is how it affects squad harmony, but Dalglish doesn't seem to have a problem dealing with that.

As to Liverpool's other business of the day, I'm pleased to see Bellamy's return. Yes, he's 32. Yes, you can probably hear his knees creak from three rooms away. But he's still got bags of pace when fit, can lead the line or play on either wing (he's far better on the left), and is a tricky, creative game winner. I still have no clue why City were so eager to get rid after Bellamy was their player of the season in 2009-10 (hint: Mancini). And the dark side is strong in this one – just like Suarez – which I'm always in favor of. The fear is Bellamy's competitiveness will upset the ship if he's not consistently in the side, but one would assume he's had the future spelled out for him clearly. Plus, defending a front-line of Suarez, Kuyt, and Bellamy will be like trying to herd a swarm of bees. I cannot wait to see it.

Overall, the summer's business in total, according to LFC History:

The above chart only includes those who played for the first team, if only sparingly, so fees for Ince and Mavinga aren't included. Rory Smith, of the Telegraph, writes that Liverpool recouped something around £25m from sales this summer. More important were the savings to the wage bill – around £30m over the lives of those players' contracts. By my quick back of the envelope math, using extremely rough estimates, those 13 who actually played for the first team would probably have cost Liverpool around £12m in wages this season. That's a fair bit extra into the transfer kitty.

Liverpool paid out £54m in fees for seven players, but the two over 30 – Doni and Bellamy – were free transfers, fitting into FSG's frequently-misunderstood Moneyball philosophy. Adam, Coates, Downing, Enrique, and Henderson all have their best days ahead of them, and four of the five have already impressed in Liverpool's first matches.

Which takes FSG's total spending to around £113m while recouping about £75m. Just under £40m to turn Torres, Babel, Konchesky, Ayala, El Zhar, Aquilani, Kyrgiakos, Insua, Jovanovic, Poulsen, Cole, Ngog, Degen, Pacheco, and Meireles into Suarez, Carroll, Henderson, Adam, Downing, Doni, Enrique, Coates, and Bellamy. That'll do, pig.

Yes, the club had to resort to loans and free transfers to get rid of the majority of useless players, but shifting the likes of Cole, Jovanovic, Poulsen, Degen, et al – those who added absolutely nothing to the squad – will save Liverpool a lot in unnecessary wages and headaches. Comolli earned his salary finding those suckers born every minute, and for once, thanks to the new owners, Liverpool were able to focus on quality instead of quantity.

A lot of clubs would have been forced to sell before buying, reducing overhead and overall numbers before bringing players in, but FSG opened the checkbook immediately. Getting Adam, Downing, and Henderson signed early allowed those players time to bed into the squad during preseason, and also meant that Liverpool weren't feverishly trawling for last-minute fallback options (cough Arsenal cough). And then Comolli went to work shifting dead weight. Success on all front. That rarely happens.

Aside from overwrought debates as to the necessity of Aquilani and Meireles, Liverpool fans haven't had to worry which player will turn into this window's Judas. We haven't spent the summer in fear of Reina's exit, for example, like with Mascherano the year before and Alonso the year before that. With Hicks and Gillett long gone, the days where Liverpool were "a selling club" are long gone as well. It was odd, but more than welcome, having such a stress-free summer.

As with the tactics, manager, and atmosphere, Liverpool's squad is now light years different than it was a year ago. Light years better.

That's why it was most successful transfer window in recent history.

2011-12 Liverpool Season Preview

The difference a year makes. From Hicks and Gillett setting the club's money on fire to FSG opening the checkbook at will. From an owl-faced over-matched media darling who "deserved a chance" as manager to the club's greatest living legend. Checking under couch cushions for the privilege of buying Konchesky and Poulsen to slightly less than £50m spent on Adam, Doni, Downing, Enrique, and Henderson. All this optimism is starting to make me pessimistic.

Business Time (so far)
In: Jordan Henderson (£16m), Charlie Adam (£8m), Stewart Downing (£18.5m), Doni (free), Jose Enrique (~£6m)
Out: Daniel Ayala (£850,000), Milan Jovanovic (free), Paul Konchesky (£1.5m), Chris Mavinga (£1m)
Fees taken from LFC History, except in the case of Ayala and Enrique, which haven't been finalized yet.

With news today that Liverpool and Newcastle have agreed a fee for Jose Enrique, another problem area can be checked off Comolli and Dalglish's list. Liverpool now have a completely new left side, far more threatening than any deployed on that flank in ages, to go with added depth in the middle.

Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam, Jose Enrique, and Jordan Henderson represent an excellent summer's worth of business, while adding the experienced Doni allows prospects Gulasci and Hansen to go on loan. Downing and Enrique were crucial, giving the club proven quality at positions where Liverpool often had to cram round pegs into square holes last season. The squad desperately lacked left-footers last season; Downing, Enrique, and Adam all have gifted left pegs, and all three are outstanding crossers of the ball, which probably pleases Andy Carroll. Henderson – the first player signed the summer, with the most surprising fee – seems solely for insurance this season: capable of replacing Gerrard if he spends any extended spells on the sidelines and able to play multiple positions in midfield to cover for others. It is an outstanding haul, even without adding mooted depth at center-back or striker.

But with three weeks left in the window, business time hasn't quite ended. The flashing neon "Free To A Good Home" signs hung around the necks of Cole, Poulsen, et al haven't enticed one of those suckers born every minute yet. For some reason, other clubs don't want to pay hard-earned money for Liverpool's misfits, especially considering what a certain few (coughJoeColecough) earn in wages.

Center-back may still be addressed, although talk of another striker has died down since Wickham signed for Sunderland and Ngog's remained at the club. Dann and Cahill continue to be suggested targets, with Phil Jones pursued before United lured him to the dark side. But CB is much less a priority than left back is/was. Liverpool could certainly do with more top quality, but in Carragher, Agger, Skrtel, Kyrgiakos, Wilson, and potentially Kelly, Liverpool at least have strength in depth. Even if that depth is fragile, aging, or inexperienced.

Expected Formation and "Best" XI


Like at the best of times under Benitez, it's difficult to forecast next season's formation, let alone line-up.

The diagrams I posted following Adam's purchase – for potential 4-2-2-2 and 4-3-3 – still hold water. I've drawn it up above as 4-2-3-1, which we've seen most frequently in preseason and is the formation the Academy and reserves have been using for the last two seasons. The difference could well be negligible, dependent on which central midfielders and wide-men play.

However, it's even harder than usual to use preseason as a gauge because two of the most important players – Suarez and Gerrard – were unavailable throughout. Lucas, the lone out-and-out defensive midfielder (Poulsen does not count), featured for the just final 45 minutes. Including those three players could necessitate an entire change of system – where does Suarez fit in the 4-2-3-1?

By my reckoning, Liverpool only used the 4-2-3-1 formation twice in Suarez's 12 starts – the 5-2 win over Fulham and 0-1 loss at Villa. He was the out-and-out striker in both, a position Carroll seems likely to fill more often than not. Suarez is as much creator as well as scorer, but I worry that playing him on the flanks in that system could put him where he's less dangerous. That Carroll is an every-game starter is by no means a given, but it'll take all of Dalglish's chutzpah to render a £35m player a spot starter.

The other elephant in the room is the obvious central midfield glut. Stockpiling in that area suggests either 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3; Liverpool would struggle to shoehorn Gerrard, Lucas, Adam, Henderson, Meireles, Spearing, etc in the 4-2-2-2 we saw during the latter half of last season. Aquilani's also lingering on the periphery, somehow still with the club, tempting us with whispered suggestions of potential. I still find it hard to believe he'll be on Merseyside come September.

It may seem too much muchness when other fields lay fallow, but it's both strength and depth in the most important part of the pitch, where the game is often won. Liverpool's best season in recent memory came with its strongest central midfield – a base of Mascherano-Alonso-Gerrard. That trio stuck to the "destroyer-passer-creator" archetype perfectly: Mascherano tackled, Alonso played chess, Gerrard made and notched goals.

This season's version is similar. Yes, it's probably weaker when everyone’s fit – Alonso is one of the best deep-lying passers in the world and Gerrard is three years older – but it's also less specialized and more versatile. Lucas isn't all snarls, tackles, and cards like Mascherano, Adam gets forward and scores more than Alonso. Gerrard's injury problems have only increased with age, but Liverpool has the likes of Henderson and Meireles (and possibly Aquilani) – each with different qualities – if the captain's (inevitably) unavailable. Both those players can also play wide if needed, as proven last season. This corps is far deeper than the '08-09 version, with Liverpool much less effective if one of Gerrard, Alonso, or Mascherano were missing. In the early, early stages of Hicks and Gillett's financial shenanigans, one of that side's biggest weaknesses was its lack of depth.

It's also worth noting that Liverpool's academy prospects are in better shape than ever. Spearing, Kelly, Flanagan, and Robinson have all successfully graduated to the first team, while Sterling, Coady, Wisdom, Ngoo, Suso, and others wait in the wings for their opportunity. I'll be amazed if fewer than 3-5 become first-team regulars in coming years, and we should start to see the likes of Sideshow Raheem et al make their debuts in this season's cup competitions.

The Chevrolet Keys To The Game
• Subterranean Homesick Blues: Liverpool were indescribably atrocious away from Anfield under Hodgson. Dalglish's record was unsurprisingly better, but not better enough. Yes, under Dalglish, Liverpool did manage to win away more than once, and did manage to score more than one goal in multiple away matches. Dalglish's side even scored five in one match; Hodgson's Liverpool scored seven total in ten away matches. However, losses to relegated West Ham and Blackpool under Dalglish, as well as at West Brom and Villa, remain drilled deep in the memory.

With Liverpool's recently-acquired midfield versatility, we may well see different line-ups home and away. Dalglish's willingness to vary systems was evident in changing to three at the back against Chelsea, Stoke, and West Ham. That flexibility allows Liverpool to test multiple formations. As an example, Carroll could be used as an away day weapon/super sub – holding up play and bruising defenders away from Anfield comforts, with Liverpool reverting to a more mobile style on its own ground (as in the late season romps against Birmingham and Newcastle). But regardless of the solution, it's one of the problems most in need of remedy.

• Keep On Keeping On: Liverpool were the third best side in the league from the date Dalglish took over through the end of the season. Only Chelsea and United gained more points than Liverpool from January 8 through mid-May. Remaining that strong is far easier said than done.

Liverpool never truly played without pressure after Dalglish's appointment, as some have suggested. But the pressure of expectations is both different and heavier than the pressures of playing for pride and a new manager. Not only that, but Liverpool will have to bed in new and important players into a potentially new system. And quickly. Last season's perennial starters Kuyt and Meireles look likely to lose their guaranteed places to Downing and Adam (and Carroll, in the case of Kuyt). Liverpool will need to start fast to prove to themselves and the chattering masses that they belong in the top tier of the top tier.

• What is Liverpool's Best Side?: That aforementioned versatility could come at a cost. The extended, rambling discussion above hints at the fact we've no clue what Dalglish thinks is his best team. But Liverpool don't have the luxury of growing into the season at a leisurely pace. The team needs to gel quickly before the knives come out. And make no mistake, the toothy media horde are already sharpening said blades. The first six fixtures of the season are Sunderland (H), Arsenal (A), Bolton (H), Stoke (A), Tottenham (A), and Wolves (H). Two top-six trips London are no small matter, but it's a vastly easier start than last season, when Liverpool hosted Arsenal and traveled to City and United before the end of September.

• No European Distraction: Yes, I'd rather be distracted, even if only by the Europa League. But I completely understand (and somewhat endorse) the argument that Liverpool's league form will benefit from a lack of continental competition. The still shallow side will have fewer games to play than their closest rivals, allowing for more training and recovery time between matches.

Liverpool's goal has to be a return to European competition, specifically THE European competition. Anything more is a pipe dream after finishing 22 points behind the leaders last season. And it'll be difficult to argue that anything less is a successful season. Liverpool have spent like a top four side, have the wage bill of a top four side, and finally seem to have a squad capable of being a top four side. But after the drama and trauma of the last two seasons, just seeing some stable progress is what's essential. Evolution, not revolution, and so on.

Just be better.

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Update: As David helpfully reminded in the comments below, I've only mentioned the OYB Fantasy League on Twitter. And in case you're not following on there, I am "running" the league again this year and will try to maintain interest in it, with the potential of prizes at the end. I am sorry there were no prizes last year. There might not be prizes this year. But if I have some extra funds or advertisers send me free stuff, there will be at least one prize.

Anyway. The details. As always, the league is at the Premier League's official game. Create a team, then click "join a league." The entry code for the OYB League is 302898-189271. If you were in the league last year and create a team, I think you'll automatically be re-entered.

I'll put up another reminder in tomorrow's preview of the opening match against Sunderland.

On Stewart Downing

Done deal subject to a medical, announced on the official site last night.

Downing has been consistently good in the league for more than five years, whether as the big fish, small pond focal point of UEFA Cup runners-up Boro or outshining the more-hyped Ashley Young as Villa's Player of the Season last campaign. Eight days away from turning 27, he's entering the prime of his career, contrary to Liverpool's supposed focus on developing diamonds.

Like Adam (and Carroll), he's another left foot in a squad that desperately lacked them. Like Henderson, he's versatile; Downing can get chalk on his boots on the left or cut in from the right, where he spent most of last season and notched seven goals and nine assists.

The easy comparison is Downing's a rich man's Riera – the last true left winger on Liverpool's books. Each's willingness to whip in crosses and well-rounded game are the most tangible similarities, but Downing's better in every regard, most notably in his aforementioned versatility and knack for scoring at the back post. For example, his winner against Liverpool just two months ago (see also: Stoke, West Brom, and Wolves, among others). Also, he doesn't seem a self-absorbed, selfish, teen-punching shithead.

This article from Football 365 spells out what Downing can add to Liverpool, even if it features the dreaded, often-misused Moneyball concept, as well some insightful stats from Opta.

135 - Stewart Downing has completed more crosses in open play than any other player in the Premier League over the last three seasons. Whip.

34.4 - Stewart Downing has averaged 34.4 appearances over the past five Premier League seasons. Reliable.

Not enough stats? More from Opta's Twitter feed? How about:

• 421 - Since Aug 2004, only 4 players (Lampard, Fabregas, Gerrard & Giggs) have created more PL chances than Stewart Downing. Craftsman.

• 56% - Downing, Adam & Henderson created 239 chances in the PL last season, equivalent to 56% of Liverpool's 2010-11 total (429). Blueprint.

• 243 - Only Leighton Baines (247) fired over more crosses in open play than Stewart Downing in the 2010-11 Premier League. Supply.

• 40 - Since August 2004, Stewart Downing & Steven Gerrard have both assisted 40 Premier League goals. Homologous.

In theory, Downing's talents will be seamlessly symbiotic with Liverpool's gargantuan number nine, his crosses pollinating Carroll's field of colossal headers. He fills a gaping, obvious hole in Liverpool's growing panorama of abilities and can play in the 4-3-3 or 4-2-2-2 I suggested after Adam's signing or the 4-2-3-1 we saw in the Guangdong friendly.

~£19m, give or take a million, represents a substantial investment. As did ~£8m for Adam or ~£16m for Henderson. Liverpool fans have become well aware that vaunted Premier League experience comes at a steep premium, especially when UK passports are involved. But after Hicks and Gillett's criminal parsimony, we can't complain when the manager gets his man, no matter the number of zeros sent in the opposite direction.

That was the case with Suarez, Carroll, Henderson, and Adam. And it's the case with Stewart Downing.

Quick update: Respected journalists (and I don't use those two words together often) Gabriele Marcotti and Tony Evans have both mooted Downing at left wing-back. So is the following formation feasible?



Seems a stronger, more attacking version of the 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-2 played against Stoke and Chelsea respectively.

Infographic – I Get Older, They Stay The Same Age

As much as I hate my birthday (and have since I turned 21), I'm actually publicly acknowledging it this year for some reason. A moment of weakness, most likely.

So, with a lack of content worth scribbling about – at least until tomorrow's first friendly against Guangzhou (8am on FSC in the US) – I thought I'd post a self-indulgent infographic showing my age relative to Liverpool's squad from the season before.



I guess my lifelong goal of featuring at Anfield is long gone, even if goalkeepers have a longer lifespan. And in lieu of more self-absorbed reminiscing, I'll mention two facets which actually make this worth posting.

First, it's interesting to see how many more players Liverpool has used over the years. The club went from averaging around 18 players per campaign in the mid-80s to more than 25 since 2000. Such are the demands of the Premiership these days.

Second, this chart demonstrates the well-known fact that Liverpool's squad got older prior to last season. Four of the five players bought by Hodgson are older than me, not counting Aurelio (who is, but never really left) or Wilson (negotiations started under Benitez). At the same time, the squad got smaller, constricted by Hicks and Gillett's dire need to get marginal players (Aquilani, Insua, El Zhar, Plessis, etc) off the wage bill.

FSG's focus on youth and depth will assuredly change next season totals. As will the fact that we'll all be yet another year older. Here's hoping Carragher and Gerrard never retire. I'm pretty sure they'll always be older than me.

Sources: Flip Flop Fly Ball for graphic idea, LFC History for squad lists.

Infographics – Squad Turnover

This is what Hicks and Gillett did to Liverpool's playing squad.

Yes, Benitez had a Redknappian fondness for wheeling and dealing – and had to rebuild right away despite winning the Champions League in his first season – but an awful lot of that business was compelled by the tumors' poverty and indebtedness, evident in the number of transfers in the last two to three seasons.

• Just six of the 29 players used this season arrived prior to the previous owners.

• Barely more than a third made their debut before the 2009-10 season: Carra, Gerrard, Reina, Agger, Aurelio, Kuyt, Lucas, Skrtel, Ngog, and Spearing. That's not even a full XI of players; like Liverpool as a whole, it's missing a left-sided attacker.

• An 18-year-old, Jack Robinson, is the 17th-longest-serving player out of a squad of 29. Ngog, at 22, is the 9th-longest serving. Lucas, at 24, is the 7th.

• 12 of the 29 players made their debuts in 2010-11: ten purchases and two youth-team players. As per usual, quantity isn't necessarily better than quality.

• The average age of the squad is only 25.6, but nine players are 30 or older: Carragher, Gerrard, Aurelio, Kuyt, Kyrgiakos, Maxi, Jovanovic, Konchesky, and Poulsen. I'd be extremely surprised if more than five were still at the club come September.

A similar graphic made a year from now probably wouldn't look much different. Multiple changes seem likely again this summer: casting out the dead wood, adding both depth and top talent.

But the most stabile teams are almost always the most successful. The despicable example of Manchester United is no small proof of that. Arsenal punches above their weight primarily through youth development – and probably would have won the league this season if the manager had spent a little more in the transfer market. And at the same time, City's extraordinarily talented band of mercenaries – on paper, the strongest squad – has been inconsistency squared, slowly climbing from fifth in 2009-10 to third last season as they've gelled. Continued familiarity in addition to a never-ending wallet is why the blue half of Manchester seems the biggest threat come next campaign if they can hold onto the talismanic Tevez.

However, FSG's plan of buying younger – Suarez is just 24, Carroll 22 – and building around the Academy will ensure that this kind of discontinuity won't be standard practice for much longer.

Bonus graphic: Where are they now...


FYI: full-size version is much clearer. Admittedly, the concept and layout was almost completely aped from Flip Flop Fly Ball, who does some of the best sports infographics on the web. Pity his focus is on cricket's even-less-exciting cousin.

It's interesting to see how few players remained at Liverpool after the Champions League victory, which is in tune with the first graphic. Nine of the 27 players who played at least one game in Europe that season left immediately after Istanbul – a third of the squad. Only five of those nine remained in the Premier League. Seven more left Liverpool after the 2005-06 season.

Because of Liverpool's economic situation, Benitez was usually selling Player A for Player B, only to sell Player B for Player C in a year's time, which continued for the duration of his managerial reign. The immediate rebuilding after Istanbul shows how flawed that team was. Making that year's victory considerably more impressive.

Five times.