Showing posts with label Rubin Kazan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rubin Kazan. Show all posts

06 November 2015

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Rubin Kazan

Previous Match Infographics: Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.

(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

That was Liverpool's first clean sheet in Russia in five attempts (0-2 Zenit, 0-1 Anzhi, 3-1 Spartak Moscow, 2-1 Spartak Vladikavkaz, 0-2 Spartak Moscow), six if you want to count an 0-3 loss at Dinamo Tbilisi – then part of the USSR and Soviet League – in 1979. It was the first time any English side avoided defeat in Kazan, let alone won: Kazan beat Wigan 1-0 in 2013-14, 3-2 v Chelsea in 2012-13, and 1-0 Tottenham in 2010-11. It's the furthest an English side has traveled in European competition and won.

Never mind the narrow scoreline, continued wastefulness, or quality of opposition. Those are some impressive streaks to have broken.

And at the same time, Liverpool hadn't won an away match in Europe since a 1-0 victory at Udinese in December 2012, the final Europa League group stage match that campaign. Since then? 0-2 Zenit, 0-1 Basel, 0-1 Madrid, 2-2 Ludogorets, 0-1 Besiktas, 1-1 Bordeaux. Six matches: two draws, four losses, three goals scored.

That's really all that matters. Liverpool stopped the rot away from home, especially in Europe; Liverpool eked out a fairly comfortable victory, despite the scoreline, in a difficult away match far from home; and Liverpool remain unbeaten since Jürgen Klopp became manager. Anything else is just quibbling.

But I can't help some quibbling. If you guessed it's mainly about Liverpool's shooting, well, great, you've also seen Liverpool in the last two seasons.

Over the two fixtures against Kazan, Liverpool out-shot their opponents 58-12 on aggregate. By a factor of nearly five to one. Just 12 of Liverpool's 58 shots (20.7%) were on-target. And Liverpool out-scored Kazan 2-1.

• Prior to Liverpool's goal: 15 Liverpool shots – eight off-target, seven blocked. Nine of 15 from outside the box.

• After the goal: seven Liverpool shots – five on-target, one off, one blocked. None of Liverpool's shots after the goal came from outside the box.

Once Liverpool got the goal – quick passing from Sakho to Allen to Firmino after Sakho claimed a wayward goal kick, a lovely layoff from Firmino to Ibe, Ibe's pace on the quick transition finally breaching Kazan's back line – Liverpool at least got smarter and more accurate with its shots. That's no small matter.

Milner hit the crossbar, Liverpool should have earned a penalty (Liverpool still haven't earned a penalty this season), Ryzhikov made an outstanding save (albeit on what would have been an own goal) just before halftime. Good chances were few and far between, but Liverpool had chances, away from home in Europe, against a side that wanted nothing more than to defend.

The scoring issues are slowly getting better – Liverpool have at least scored once in every match under Klopp except the first at Tottenham – but Liverpool still have issues scoring. This should surprise no one.



But it is getting better. Liverpool are putting slightly fewer shots on-target, but Liverpool are taking more shots and allowing fewer, with an especially stark difference away from home. There are caveats, because of course. Sample size. The 47 shots against Carlisle, with extra time, boosting the early season totals. Rodgers' away matches were Stoke, Arsenal, United, Bordeaux, and Everton; only Bordeaux were "weak" opposition. Klopp's have been Tottenham, Chelsea, and Kazan – just three matches, and Kazan probably the worst of any side Liverpool have faced away.

Still, those totals look promising, and seeing Liverpool take the game to their opponents, any opponent, away from home, especially in Europe, is a welcome sight.

Liverpool never took more than 15 shots in the 11 European away matches under Brendan Rodgers, that "high" coming in the 0-1 loss at Basel last season. Sure, most of Liverpool's opponents were better than Rubin Kazan, but that murderers' row also includes the likes of Gomel and Hearts (albeit in qualifying rounds, before the full side returned), Young Boys, Udinese, and Ludogorets. Meanwhile, Liverpool's opponents in those 11 matches averaged more than 15 shots per match. That's exacerbated by Real Madrid's 27, but Ludogorets took 18, Besiktas took 21 (albeit with extra time), Zenit took 16, etc.

Despite being at home, Kazan took just seven shots – only two more than at Anfield – and didn't put any of them on target. Liverpool allowed zero shots on-target just four times during Brendan Rodgers' tenure: twice last season (1-0 at Burnley and 0-0 v Bolton, 16 and seven total shots respectively) and twice in 2013-14 (2-0 v Hull and 5-0 at Tottenham, 10 and nine shots respectively).

That's now three consecutive wins – the first time that's happened since February – after three consecutive draws. The last Liverpool manager to go unbeaten in his first six games? Bob Paisley, way back in the 1974-75 season, with seven wins (one, in the Charity Shield, on penalties) and a draw before a loss at Manchester City. Rodgers won his first two, the two legs against Gomel; Dalglish lost his first match at United in the FA Cup; Hodgson was unbeaten through four, European wins against Rabotnicki (twice) and Trabzonspor as well as a draw v Arsenal; Benitez won two and drew one before losing; Houllier lost his first match v Leeds; Evans drew once before losing; Souness won twice before losing; Dalglish won one and drew one to start his first stint; Fagan lost his first match (albeit in the Charity Shield, before a seven-match unbeaten run). It's even more impressive that Klopp's done it mid-season; Dalglish, Houllier, and Evans all struggled for a time after taking over during the campaign.

So, yeah, Liverpool could have shot better. But, after finally winning in Europe and again winning away from home, that's not a massive concern. My biggest concern is the cost. The reason that Rodgers struggled in Europe is that Rodgers rarely played full-strength sides in Europe, protecting players for the more important league matches. I'm curious – and apprehensive – to see what effect yesterday's efforts have on Sunday's match against a dangerous Crystal Palace.

04 November 2015

Liverpool at Rubin Kazan 11.05.15

1pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Chelsea (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-1 Southampton (h)
Kazan: 2-1 Anzhi (a); 1-2 Krasnodar (a); 1-1 Liverpool (a)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Kazan: 0-0 Bordeaux (h); 1-2 Sion (a); 1-0 Rabotnicki (h), 1-1 Rabotnicki (a); 1-1 Sturm Graz (h), 3-2 Sturm Graz (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2, Can 1
Kazan: Kanunnikov, Karadeniz 2; Carlos Eduardo, Devic, Kuzmin, Portnyagin 1

Referee: Kevin Blom (NED)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Milner Allen Can
Lallana Coutinho
Origi

Brendan Rodgers almost never played a full-strength side in away Europe League matches, especially not in the group stage.

We won't see a full-strength XI tomorrow either, but it's still strange to read the "Klopp travels with all available first-team players" stories making the rounds.

It's been almost three years to the day since Liverpool went to Russia to face Anzhi Makhachkala for the fourth match of the group. Sure, Liverpool were top of the group at that point. Liverpool had an arguably weaker – if far less injury-plagued – squad. Liverpool's XI that day was Jones; Wisdom, Coates, Carragher; Flanagan, Henderson, Coady, Shelvey, Downing; Cole; Morgan. The likes of Suarez, Gerrard, Agger, Allen, Skrtel, Sterling, Johnson, Reina, Enrique, and Şahin all stayed on Merseyside.

It's also been exactly a year since Liverpool traveled to Real Madrid and played that XI but the less said about that, the better.

It's a fairly dramatic difference to what we'll see tomorrow.

With a full complement of players, the XI could be anywhere from Mignolet; Clyne, Skrtel, Lovren, Moreno; Brannagan, Allen; Ibe, Firmino, Lallana; Origi to the above guess. And maybe it'll be even stronger than the above guess: Benteke in place of Origi, Sakho instead of Lovren, Lucas instead of Allen. But those three seem the most likely to be protected: the first because he's still recently back from injury, the latter two because they still seem the most in need of rest and/or protection. Maybe it's a mix between the two poles: Firmino and/or Ibe starts in place of Lallana or Coutinho, or the 4-2-3-1 we saw at Chelsea rather than the more usual 4-3-2-1.

Liverpool finally have options in most areas of the pitch. Most. Clyne and Moreno will both start for lack of options; Randall is one of the few involved recently to not travel.

Rubin Kazan are pretty much right where Liverpool left them. They (coincidentally) beat Anzhi, dead bottom of the Russian League, on Sunday, but lost to Krasnodar, one place behind Kazan in the table, the weekend before. They've no new injuries since the last meeting. Kuzmin's suspended after his red card two weeks ago, but Kislyak will return from suspension. I suspect we'll see a very similar XI, probably solely accounting for those two changes: Ryzhikov; Ustinov, Kverkvelia, Kambolov, Nabiullin; Ozdoev, Kislyak; Kanunnikov, Carlos Eduardo, Karadeniz; Devic.

Maybe Georgiev keeps his place, most likely over Karadeniz, making Kazan more a 4-3-3. Maybe Portnyagin reclaims his striker role instead of Devic. Kazan will necessarily be more attacking; they're at home, inaugurating a new arena. They'll at least start with a full complement of players rather than 10 men. But we'll still see a lot of Liverpool in possession trying to break down a deep defense.

Yet to win a match in the Europa League, Liverpool could really do with a victory tomorrow. They're four points behind Sion, but just one ahead of both Bordeaux and Kazan. A draw will keep Liverpool in a holding pattern, likely still second (with struggling Bordeaux away to Sion) but with little room for error. Defeat will see Liverpool drop to third or even fourth, probably needing wins in both of the final two matches to qualify.

Which is why Liverpool are traveling with a full-strength squad, and why we'll probably see a surprisingly strong XI tomorrow. It's a big change from what we're used to in this competition. But the last few weeks have been a big change from what came in the year before.

23 October 2015

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Rubin Kazan

Previous Match Infographics: Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

What, you mean Klopp hasn't fixed all of Liverpool's problems in a week? JÜRGEN OUT, etc etc.

On the surface, that was a very Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool performance and there were an awful lot of uncomfortable familiarities.

• The result: Liverpool's sixth 1-1 draw in the last eight matches.

• Conceding a goal that Liverpool probably shouldn't have conceded, with the defense beaten by a long cross-field pass over the top and Devic in behind Clyne and Skrtel far too easily, although not many players will take a first touch as lovely as that.

• Liverpool's shooting: reasonably prolific – Carlisle aside, Liverpool's 35 shots were a high for both this season and last – but horribly inaccurate, with far too many efforts off-target or blocked, and far too many from outside the box. Just six shots on-target, with 19 off (including one off the woodwork) and 11 blocked.

• Liverpool scored just one goal from all those shots. Kazan scored one goal from just five. And four of those five shots came from inside the box, compared to just 14 of Liverpool's 35.

You have heard this song before. But there were a few important differences as well.

35 shots vastly outnumbered any total that Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool accumulated in Europe. The previous high under the previous manager was 23 shots against Ludogorets last season. That was the only time a Rodgers side took more than 20 shots in a European match. Liverpool averaged 13.8 shots per match in Rodgers' 18 European contests (not counting qualifiers against Hearts and Gomel, which I don't have stats for).

Unlike against Sion, only two of Liverpool's 35 shots were clear-cut chances: Can scoring once, Benteke missing the other in the 74th. Liverpool had six against Sion: the first scored by Lallana, the subsequent five either saved (4) or blocked (1). Liverpool weren't quite as wasteful as they were in the last 1-1 European home draw, their opponents were (necessarily) more focused on defense.

It's not easy to break down a 10-man side, especially one that has no need to come out. Liverpool at least did well to create chances and get into some decent positions against a team that, down a man, desired to do nothing but defend. They varied their build-up, attempting both crosses and playing through the middle, trying one-two one-touch passes and running at defenders, rather than the often staid stuff we saw earlier this season and last. Benteke and Firmino were clearly rusty, Origi's only 20, Coutinho's poor form continues (although he was at least creating chances in addition to taking speculative shots), almost every player showed the effects of tiredness after a difficult match at Tottenham four days earlier.

If Liverpool continue to create that volume of shots – especially when they out-shoot their opponents by 30 – I'm fairly confident Liverpool will usually score more than one goal and Liverpool will win more matches than they lose or draw.

And Liverpool had lost six of the last seven matches when conceding first, going back to the last time they won after conceding first: at Palace last February in the FA Cup. At United, against West Ham, at Hull, at Arsenal, against United, at Besiktas. The only exception was a draw at Chelsea last May – a Chelsea who'd already clinched the league – Gerrard's headed equalizer after Terry gave Chelsea the lead.

It is a good thing that Liverpool rarely conceded first, in just seven out of the previous 30 matches. It is a bad thing that Liverpool almost never got back into the game if they did concede first. At least that wasn't the case yesterday, keeping unrelenting pressure on Kazan's defense for the final hour.

Can, Lallana, and Sakho – players who were misused and/or underused under Rodgers – were all excellent, for the second successive match. That's no small matter either.

So, yes, there's still quite a bit of progress that needs to be made. And the majority of it is at the sharp end of the pitch. We knew (or should have known) that'd be the case. But, despite a disappointing draw, the second consecutive draw under Klopp, there are some good signs.

21 October 2015

Liverpool v Rubin Kazan 10.22.15

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Tottenham (a); 1-1 Everton (a); 1-1 Sion (h)
Kazan: 3-1 Ufa (h); 1-2 Terek Grozny (a); 0-0 Bordeaux (h)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Kazan: 0-0 Bordeaux (h); 1-2 Sion (a); 1-0 Rabotnicki (h), 1-1 Rabotnicki (a); 1-1 Sturm Graz (h), 3-2 Sturm Graz (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2
Kazan: Kanunnikov, Karadeniz 2; Carlos Eduardo, Kuzmin, Portnyagin 1

Referee: Robert Schörgenhofer (AUT)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Allen Can
Milner Coutinho Ibe
Origi

An entirely different manager, an entirely new attempt to gauge how seriously that manager will take this competition. If Klopp puts out a full-strength XI – and that's a fairly big if – I can only see a couple of changes: Ibe for Lallana or Coutinho, and Allen for Lucas or Can.

Even if Klopp wanted to, there are few options for alterations. Ings, Gomez, and Flanagan are out for months; Henderson and Rossiter for a little while longer. Sturridge, Benteke, Lovren, and Firmino are back in training, but none will start – or probably even play – until Sunday at the earliest.

I remind: Liverpool's bench on Saturday was Bogdan, Toure, Allen, Ibe, Randall, Teixeira, and Sinclair. Other than Ibe, Allen, and possibly Toure, if there are changes, it'll be youth players getting a chance. There were the three on the bench on Saturday – a right back, attacking midfielder, and striker – but Chirivella, Brannagan, and Maguire are also remote possibilities. Maybe, under a new manager, Jose Enrique is once again a thing that exists, but I doubt it. (Whoops. Derped that. Neither Enrique nor Teixeira are registered for the EL. Thanks to wides in the comments).

So you balance who's actually available with the regular starters you're most concerned about. Lucas rarely played three matches in a week under Rodgers. Lallana rarely plays 80+ minutes, rarely starts multiple matches in a matter of days, and ran an awful lot on Saturday. We're always concerned about Sakho's number of matches and ability to stay fit. Emre Can has still featured in every match this season.

In addition, Sunday's clearly the more important, tougher fixture, but if Liverpool want to qualify for the knockout rounds, Liverpool probably need to win this match. Sion have four points, Bordeaux and Liverpool two, Kazan one. Liverpool will only have one more home match after this. Advancement isn't impossible with a draw or even a loss tomorrow, but it makes doing so infinitely harder.

At the same time, it's not as if Liverpool's opponents are in sparkling form. Kazan's home win against second-to-bottom Ufa last weekend was Kazan's first win in any competition since September 12. After 12 matches, they sit 12 in the 16-team Russian League, with three wins, a draw, and eight losses.

Midfielder Kislyak is suspended after two yellows against Bordeaux, with Georgiev the most likely replacement – although he's also questionable after missing the weekend match through injury – but otherwise, my best guess at an XI is the same which Kazan started in both their last league match. Ryzhikov; Kuzmin, Kverkvelia, Kambolov, Nabiullin; Ozdoev, Georgiev; Kanunnikov, Carlos Eduardo, Karadeniz; Portnyagin.

Maybe ex-Evertonian Diniyar Bilyaletdinov – who has received fewer opportunities since his father was fired in September, replaced by Valeri Chaly – comes into the side. Maybe Marko Devic, a former Ukrainian international, starts up front in place of the struggling Portnyagin or alongside him. Kanunnikov can start up front or on the flanks; Carlos Eduardo as the #10 or out wide. Rubin Kazan, unlike Liverpool, seemingly have options. It's just that I'm not entirely sure what those options entail or which will be preferred.

It'll be interesting to see how Liverpool under Klopp respond to the pressure of expectations. Everyone was on a high following Klopp's appointment at Tottenham – and, to be fair, still are – and considering each side's respective forms and venue, anything earned at White Hart Lane, any progress, even marginal, made would be a bonus.

That's not the case tomorrow. Liverpool are at home, for Klopp's Anfield debut. Liverpool are deservedly favored. Liverpool are the better side. Liverpool need to win. How will Liverpool react?