Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 QPR

Previous Match Infographics: Hull City (a), West Brom (a), Newcastle (h), Blackburn [FA Cup] (a), Arsenal (a), Manchester United (h), Swansea (a), Burnley (h), Manchester City (h), Besiktas (a), Southampton (a), Besiktas (h), Tottenham (h), Everton (a), West Ham (h), Chelsea (a) [League Cup], Chelsea (h) [League Cup], Villa (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Swansea (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (a), Basel (h), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke (h), Ludogorets (a), Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


This is the second time that Gerrard led Liverpool in both shots and chances created in a single match since I started doing these infographics, since Rodgers became manager. The only other time was the 2-1 home victory against West Brom in October, a match incredibly similar to yesterday's. On that day, he took three shots, the same amount as Lambert and Balotelli, and created five chances from a deep-lying midfield role, with far fewer defensive responsibilities than that position usually entails because of both opposition and venue.

Part of the reason he's usually failed to post such high totals is due to playing with Sturridge, Suarez, and Coutinho: the first two shot-monsters, the latter two chance creation monsters. If you're playing with Luis Suarez – who only misses matches through suspension, never through injury – chances are you aren't leading the side in shots or key passes (unless you're Messi). Part of it is due to the position Gerrard's played in the last few seasons. And part is obviously due to age; time makes fools of every single one of us.

Does this mean Gerrard had a good game on Saturday? Well, yeah. Liverpool didn't really need him to protect the back four, so often where he's struggled as the deepest midfielder. And Liverpool did need him to lead the side in shots and key passes, despite playing as the deepest of the front six. No one else, except maybe Coutinho – who had every shot bar the opening goal blocked – seemed capable of doing so.

Gerrard's taken six or more shots and created three or more chances just one other time in the last three seasons: Liverpool's 5-1 win at Norwich in December 2013, a match where Suarez took more shots, and Coutinho, Johnson and Suarez created more chances. That was a very different Liverpool team than this Liverpool team. Coutinho remains a vital cog, but one of those players isn't at Liverpool anymore and the other has fallen off an even steeper cliff than Gerrard has.

Put simply, even in his dotage, Liverpool don't have a match-winner like Steven Gerrard in its squad anymore.

With Sturridge perpetually injured, Coutinho's the only other who comes close these days. See 2-1 City, 2-1 Bolton, 1-0 Blackburn in the last few months. But that's still a fairly recent phenomenon and he's still not consistent enough in front of goal, too reliant on often-speculative shots from distance that could either travel into the top corner or 20 rows up into some poor sap's face.

Lallana pressed well and was tidy in possession. Sterling, deployed on the right, was more of a passenger than usual, but pressed similarly well and at least attempted to take players on. You couldn't help but see their respective misses just after halftime as glaring demonstrations that they're either not ready or not the answer.

And while Rickie Lambert was a vast improvement on Balotelli, he's certainly not the answer either. Yes, he made Liverpool better just by being more involved in the play; compare Lambert's passes to Balotelli's at West Brom and Hull. But his pass accuracy (59%), shooting (two on-target shots easily saved, one off, one blocked), and general lack of mobility (no tackles or interceptions, just one attempted unsuccessful dribble) highlight his deficiencies as well.

Gerrard's certainly not able to do it against every opponent, whether their tactics force him into a more defensive role (Villa in the FA Cup semifinal, among many others) or because he just doesn't have it in his locker every day anymore (at West Brom two weeks ago). And QPR certainly helped by being quite bad: allowing the most shots Liverpool have taken when playing four-at-the-back (only the 27 in the 2-2 against Arsenal saw more this season), making just six interceptions despite Liverpool's vast supremacy in possession, creating just four chances and putting just two shots on-target.

But Gerrard's still capable of it once in a (great) while, and that's more than you can say for some of the players currently at the club. And that's why Rodgers still tries to shoehorn him into the side, even when it seems to be to Liverpool's detriment. And that's why Liverpool will still miss him next season, no matter the issues his inclusion creates.

Liverpool need players capable of grabbing the game by the throat. Liverpool need players capable of scoring game-winning goals, or any goals for that matter. It's why Liverpool have so vainly struggled in the previous two season-killing matches, it's why Liverpool have so vainly struggled throughout this season. And it's something Liverpool desperately need to remedy next season, whether through transfers or by current "key" players finally stepping up. Ideally both.

Liverpool 2-1 QPR

Goals:
Coutinho 19'
Fer 73'
Gerrard 87'

For awhile, it looked like we'd once again achieved Peak Liverpool.

The same formation which had led to disaster against West Brom and Hull. A difficult, lethargic start, but a surprisingly well-worked opening goal to give the team hope.

Then, a complete inability to get the game-killing second despite multiple opportunities to do so, including missed sitters from Lallana and Sterling. Followed by the least surprising of equalizers when QPR finally took advantage of one of the set plays Liverpool kept conceding.

There was renewed hope when Liverpool won a soft, stupid penalty, which was promptly saved when Gerrard shot too close to Robert Green. Onuoha sent off for a second yellow in as many minutes, but Liverpool once again raging with sound and fury that would seemingly signify nothing.

Until Liverpool's ninth corner of the match in the 87th minute, having wasted the previous eight. A storming header in front of the Kop by Gerrard, reminiscent of his opener against Everton last season, of the first in Liverpool's 2005 Champions League comeback. Liverpool's first league goal from a corner in 2015, just Liverpool's third league goal from a corner this season.

It may be a meaningless moral victory in the grand scheme of things, but it's a moral victory nonetheless, both for Liverpool and for Gerrard personally. And, even more important, it's an actual victory, Liverpool's first since April 13. That's the way Gerrard's Liverpool career should end: a late winner in front of the Kop that turned back the clock. That's the narrative he should go out with, not the pain we've endured, he's endured over the last calendar year.

To be fair to Liverpool, it was better than we'd seen in the last two matches. Lambert was much more involved than Balotelli, and did well to set up Liverpool's first goal. Lallana made Liverpool more coherent in the final third, despite that awful miss which would have made the game a lot easier (a miss, to be fair, which was nowhere near as bad as Sterling's). The two former Southampton players were more influential as starters then they'd been as substitutes, while Ibe did well off the bench when replacing Lallana. Coutinho ran the game wonderfully despite the tricky surface; Sterling, Coutinho, Lallana, Henderson, and Lambert all combined fairly well. Can actually looked more like a right-back, not trying to act as another midfielder with Liverpool in possession, exposing Liverpool to unnecessary threats.

With different fullbacks, a different holding midfielder, a different striker, and Sakho instead of Lovren, you could maybe almost kinda see a future for this formation.

How much of that was down to QPR being QPR is a valid question, though. QPR are deservedly 19th, nearly relegated; they battled for the points they so desperately need – never giving up as Newcastle (and arguably Burnley) have given up – but it's also clear why that defense has conceded the most goals in the league this season. Liverpool remained goal shy, creating better chances but putting too many shots off-target. Liverpool remained vulnerable on counters and set plays, the back four still nowhere near as secure as the back three. Liverpool again conceded a goal they had no business conceding. Liverpool still looks far too much like the Liverpool we saw from September through November rather than the one from January through March.

But at this point, I'll happily settle for "better" any way it happens. Today certainly wasn't the matches at West Brom or Hull, two teams that aren't much more troublesome than QPR have been recently. I'll happily settle for Liverpool's first late winner in the league since Balotelli's against Tottenham back in February. I'll happily settle for Gerrard remembered for scoring a vital goal rather than missing a penalty or being run past by yet another opposition midfielder.

I'll happily settle for all three points, points which make Liverpool's hold on fifth slightly more secure.

Liverpool v QPR 05.02.15

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-2 Liverpool (a) 10.19.14
1-0 Liverpool (h) 05.19.13
3-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.12
2-3 QPR (a) 03.21.12

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Hull (a); 0-0 West Brom (a); 1-2 Villa (n); 2-0 Newcastle (h)
QPR: 0-0 West Ham (h); 0-1 Chelsea (h); 3-3 Villa (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sterling 7; Gerrard, Henderson 6; Coutinho, Lallana, Sturridge 4; Lambert, Markovic, Moreno 2; Allen, Balotelli, Borini, Can, Johnson, Skrtel 1
QPR: Austin 17; Fer 4; Vargas, Zamora 3; Kranjcar, Phillips 2; Barton, Caulker, Hill, Sandro 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Can Skrtel Lovren
Ibe Henderson Allen Moreno
Lallana Sterling Coutinho

It's been 200 minutes since Liverpool last scored a league goal: the last two matches and the last 20 minutes against Newcastle. 200 minutes against teams currently 13th, 14th, and 15th.

Even if the season's gone, with a Champions League place gone and with the FA Cup gone, that's unacceptable. So you can't keep doing the same things that have gotten Liverpool to this place. You can't keep playing 4-1-2-3 or 4-2-3-1 with Balotelli or Borini or Lambert up front and hope that things improve. Because we've seen little sign of that happening.

But what's the alternative? Sterling as the main striker rather than one of those three misfit musketeers? A return to the 3-4-3 which was so swiftly dropped when it appeared that teams had started to figure it out? A 4-4-2 diamond? That Gerrard, Lucas, and Moreno should all return to the squad gives Liverpool a few more options, even if none adds firepower to a squad which so desperately needs it.

I honestly don't know what the answer is. There simply aren't goals in this squad, no matter how you dress it up. But since Liverpool has looked best this season when playing 3-4-3 and QPR will most likely play 4-4-2, a return to 3-4-3 seems the safest option. Or, differently put, Austin and Zamora one-on-one against Skrtel and Lovren is a terrifying prospect and for the love of all that's holy, stop playing Balotelli, Lambert, or Borini as a lone striker.

There's no guarantee that Bobby Zamora – who caused Liverpool a fair few problems in the reverse fixture – will be fit, a late fitness test after suffering a knock last week. And if Zamora's not fit, QPR will struggle to deploy two strikers with Vargas also injured, Junior Hoilett out of favor, and Zarate returning to West Ham from loan after an injury earlier this month.

If that's the case, QPR will probably have to play 4-2-3-1, with either Fer or Taarabt or Wright-Phillips coming into the side. Otherwise, the QPR line-up is far easier to predict. Green, Onuoha, Dunne, Caulker, Hill; Phillips, Barton, Sandro, Henry; Austin have started almost every match under Ramsey when available.

The above guess would mean that Gerrard's left on the bench despite being available, which – sentimentality be damned – I'm fine with. At this point, no matter that he has at most four Liverpool games left, he's best used as a substitute, and Liverpool are best served by playing players who'll be here next season. Similar goes for Johnson, and probably Balotelli, Lambert, and Borini as well.

The "best" way to shoehorn Gerrard into the XI is probably in a 4-2-3-1 behind Sterling, flanked by Lallana and Coutinho, with Henderson and Lucas or Allen as the central midfielders. But that's only because it's where he can do the least damage; Liverpool have looked far worse when he's been one of the wide attackers in the 3-4-3, or as one of the central midfielders, or as the deepest midfielder in either a 4-2-1-3 or a 4-4-2 diamond.

Which probably means that we'll see Mignolet; Can, Skrtel, Lovren, Moreno; Gerrard, Lucas, Henderson; Coutinho, Balotelli, Sterling, because there's only four weeks left and Liverpool have so much more pain left to give us.

So will this be another match where Liverpool hand points to a relegation-threatened side which desperately needs them? QPR are currently 19th, four points from safety, with just one win in their last nine matches. QPR need points even more than West Brom, even more than Hull, and will have to go in search of them.

Of course, there's a "but." QPR's lone win over that stretch was a 4-1 annihilation of West Brom, a team that held Liverpool scoreless a week ago. They drew 3-3 with Villa, another who's beaten Liverpool's recently, drew with West Ham, and took Chelsea all the way to the end before losing 0-1 on a late goal. Their last two wins, against West Brom and Sunderland, both came away from home. Like Hull, like West Brom, QPR will look at Liverpool's form and go "yep, this is probably our best chance at getting some points." They'll attack Liverpool like Villa attacked Liverpool: long balls to Zamora or Austin like Benteke; Phillips and another floating inside like Grealish and N'Zogbia; runners from midfield, whether Barton or Sandro, like Delph.

QPR have nothing to lose. Sure, a loss will probably seal relegation, but they're expected to lose, they're expected to go down. Meanwhile, Liverpool have played their last two matches like they've nothing to play for.

That bodes poorly, and it's up to Rodgers and Liverpool to change that trend in what little time they have left this season.

Visualized: Liverpool 3-2 QPR

Previous Match Infographics: West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Where do you start with that? An abysmal performance at both ends of the pitch, except Liverpool's counter-attack came to life in the final 5-10 minutes, against the worst side in the division. Rodgers experimenting with both personnel and formation with Madrid imminent, and none of those experiments working out.

The biggest surprise was moving Gerrard forward after using a similar set-up to finish the win against West Brom.

As a defensive tactic, Gerrard as the #10 made little sense. There have been games where he's been attacked and suffered, but his performance as the ostensible defensive midfielder hasn't been why Liverpool concede early and often. Even if QPR had started with its more-frequent 4-5-1 system, they'd still have focused on attacking down the flanks, most likely Liverpool's left.

It seems to me that it had to have been an attacking tactic, based solely off of the final 15-20 minutes against West Brom, trying to get more out of Balotelli by providing service from the captain. Which makes little sense, because the game states were vastly different. Then, West Brom had to throw men forward in search of an equalizer, there was space for Gerrard to roam. That wasn't going to be the case at the beginning of the match at QPR, up against two very defensive midfielders in Henry and Sandro. And it failed miserably.

Liverpool were utterly insipid in attack in the first half, unable to even take a shot until the 26th minute.



And Gerrard and Balotelli exchanged all of five passes. Just one came with Gerrard in an advanced role: Balotelli's key pass for Gerrard's shot off-target in the 44th minute, by far Liverpool's best chance to that point.

Yes, some of that was down to Balotelli, not only a fish out of water in this team, who still shoots from less-than-ideal positions when a pass is a much better option, but also a fish wholly devoid of confidence. We're reaching Peter Crouch territory here, a player who took 1227 minutes to score his first Liverpool goal (706 minutes in the league). Balotelli's been held scoreless for 427 minutes in the league, after registering his first Liverpool goal in the Champions League after 214 minutes for the club. A player with confidence, even with Balotelli's flaws, buries that chance in the 61st first rather than rushing his shot and hammering it over. I am admittedly still quite worried, but I also still truly believe all he needs is just one league goal to get the rock rolling downhill, as it did for Crouch.



At least Balotelli did a much better job of actually getting into the box compared to previous performances. That's not enough, but it is a start.

Regardless, is an attacking role really the best use of Steven Gerrard these days?



So it was no surprise to see Liverpool more cohesive in attack after the interval.



To be fair, some of that was QPR's doing, pressing very well, especially in the first half, with seven of their 21 successful tackles in Liverpool's half. Credit to Redknapp for realizing that Liverpool have had trouble when playing against two strikers all season long; I was fairly certain he'd bunker down with the more frequently deployed 4-5-1 formation. Liverpool have faced two-striker formations three times now: at City (4-2-2-2), at West Ham (4-Diamond-2), and at QPR (lopsided 4-4-2). Coincidentally, those are the only three league matches where Liverpool have conceded at least two goals.

Meanwhile, Liverpool have played 4-2-3-1 in five matches this season (four in the league, as well as Basel), and it's seemed reasonably competent twice: the first match against Southampton, won thanks to Sturridge and Sterling far more than the formation, and at Everton, where Liverpool were still disjointed in attack but would have won if not for Jagielka's hapax legomenon. Both with and without Sturridge – and sadly, we've far more evidence without – Liverpool remain better with two mobile midfielders deployed ahead of Gerrard, at both ends.

Finally, the elephant stomping, stamping, snorting, and screaming in the room. I'm at a loss for answers about the defense. It's been bad all season long, but yesterday's performance was the worst. Personnel certainly had something to do with it – we can lay at least 80% of QPR's first goal at Enrique's feet, almost all of QPR's chances came down that flank, Lallana (for all his positive attributes) isn't especially suited to providing defensive support, Johnson was no great shakes either – but it has to be systemic as well. Different players keep making similar errors: Henderson, Johnson, and Skrtel all missing tackles in the run up to Austin's early effort; Lovren and Enrique switching off on Zamora in the run up to the first time Fer hit the crossbar; Lovren's misplayed header going backwards perfectly for Austin on the first goal; Gerrard switching off on Vargas for the second goal, even with Joe Allen pointing and screaming about the open space. Et cetera, et cetera.

Given his complete lack of match practice, it's little surprise that Enrique was tormented all game long, but that both Skrtel and Lovren were outplayed by Zamora was embarrassing. I was amazed to see that Lovren actually won 10 of his 14 aerial duels (and Skrtel won five of six), because it certainly didn't seem that way during the match.

Even at their worst, either last season or this season, Liverpool have at least been decent at preventing danger zone shots. Not yesterday. Nine of QPR's 15 efforts came from the six-yard box or the center of the 18-yard box, including both goals, as well as those three first half chances that should have led to goals. That's a massive step backwards, and bodes very badly for the future if it continues.

At least Sterling was nearly back to his best, at the heart of all three Liverpool goals, receiving and playing his high in passes this season, and Liverpool's joint-top chance creator. That he didn't take any shots is worrying, but also symptomatic of when he plays on the right, unable to cut inside onto his stronger foot. At least the counter came to life late on, with Coutinho also impressive when Liverpool broke; the pass to set up Liverpool's third was as good as any he's played while at the club. At least Liverpool didn't lose, unwilling and unable to give up, and not for the first time this season.

But you cannot be mistake-prone, abysmal on set plays, and then allow that many danger zone shots. You cannot be that disjointed in attack for nearly 90 minutes. It is a recipe for disaster against almost every side in the world. Except, I guess, Harry Redknapp's QPR.

Liverpool 3-2 QPR

Goals:
Dunne OG 66'
Vargas 87' 90+2'
Coutinho 90'
Caulker OG 90+5'

There are times when football makes absolutely zero sense. Today was one of those times.

Liverpool had no right to win that match. Liverpool had that match won twice and threw it away twice and still somehow took all three points.

QPR should have been three up at halftime. Liverpool coupled the same defensive mistakes – even more of them! – with two different, inferior fullbacks and a change in midfield which wholly disrupted the side. We're not at a loss for choices, but the first half was, by far, the worst half Liverpool's played this season.

With a eye on Madrid, Rodgers rested both Manquillo and Moreno, the first time both Johnson and Enrique have started since the 1-0 win over United on September 1 2013. After seeing Gerrard and Balotelli link up to near-acceptable effect when West Brom were chasing the match two weeks ago, Gerrard started as the #10, the first time that's happened since very early in Rodgers' first season.

Neither alteration worked. In the slightest bit. It could and should have been Aston Villa or West Ham all over again. But Austin shot into the side netting after Johnson couldn't clear and Skrtel couldn't clear and Mignolet parried his first effort straight back into his path. Leroy Fer hit the bar twice, the first after Zamora got behind both Lovren and Enrique, the second from Zamora's cross, with Johnson blocking a rebound on the line and Skrtel somehow scrambling clear. QPR clearly targeted Liverpool's left, especially with Fer tucking in on the opposite flank in a very unbalanced 4-4-2, and it should have paid dividends if not for the crossbar. But, to be fair, the crossbar has owed Liverpool for some time now.

Meanwhile, Liverpool's only effort of note was Balotelli's chance created for Gerrard in the 44th minute, the captain controlling well to make space in the box but shooting narrowly wide. Otherwise, lots of Balotelli isolated, a handful of the usual shots from distance nowhere near threatening. When Liverpool actually had possession in QPR's half.

So it was no surprise that Liverpool reverted to the more usual midfield to start the second half, with Henderson and Can ahead of Gerrard. And Liverpool were marginally better, although QPR continued to have the better chances: a massive save from Mignolet on Sandro's shot, Austin's effort from no angle skittering across the face of goal.

Balotelli should have opened the scoring in the 61st minute, ballooning an open goal rebound after good work from Sterling and Lallana, but Liverpool didn't truly improve until Coutinho and Allen replaced Lallana and Can in the 66th minute.

Still, it was both coincidental and lucky that the opening goal came a minute after the substitutions. A free kick won by Sterling quickly taken, Johnson's cross towards Balotelli poked into the net by Richard Dunne, with Balotelli not even paying attention until just before Dunne redirected the pass. It is better to be lucky than good, but it would be nice if Liverpool were good for a change.

So, how were Liverpool going to throw it away, as they did against Boro and Everton, as they nearly did against Ludogorets and West Brom? Well, for 20 minutes, it didn't look like they would, with Liverpool surprisingly secure – well, secure for Liverpool – and Mignolet making two more good saves on Austin and Traore. But then QPR's substitute striker struck, again a goal conceded from a half-cleared set play, aided by some absolutely horrific defending from Enrique. Enrique half-cleared. Enrique over-ran when trying to defend Vargas, allowing the cross. Enrique didn't track Vargas' run, perfectly placed for Austin's header back across goal. It was auspicious, to say the least. And QPR nearly took the lead two minutes later from a similar situation, with Skrtel making a last-ditch clearance just in front of Vargas. It would have seemed fitting.

But then, a ray of hope. The first time Liverpool have clicked on the counter-attack this season. A break after clearing QPR's corner, Sterling excellent run then to Gerrard then to Coutinho, the Brazilian cutting inside from the left with his shot partially deflected past McCarthy. About damn time.

Phew. Just like Ludogorets. A dumb late mistake somehow saved. Shut up shop, take the undeserved three points, do better next time. Ha. Hahahahaha.

Because QPR were again level two minutes later. Stop me if you've heard this before, but it was from a set play: Phillips' corner headed by Vargas at the near post, somehow getting through both Henderson and Gerrard and between Allen's legs on the post. Utterly, indescribably comical. More bad set play defending, but also Allen making the schoolboy error of spreading his legs while on the post, then screened by two players late to react to Vargas so he saw the ball too late to react.

One point would have been more than Liverpool deserved. But the insanity wasn't over. Another QPR set play, again cleared. Another Liverpool counter-attack featuring Coutinho, this time starting the move after Lovren's header out and playing a delicious, last season-esque throughball to Sterling, whose centered pass towards Balotelli was redirected by Caulker. In the 95th minute. Absolutely unbelievable. And, yes, it's probably for the best the pass didn't reach Balotelli. Every set play in the final 10 minutes seemed to lead to a QPR goal or a Liverpool counter-attacking goal. Feast or famine, and no in-between.

Make no mistake. If Liverpool play like that on Wednesday, they will be thoroughly curb-stomped by Real Madrid. Thoroughly. There is a reason why QPR are currently propping up the table. Multiple reasons, actually. Almost any other side would have punished Liverpool, like Villa punished Liverpool, like West Ham punished Liverpool, etc, etc. QPR did not deserve to lose that game, but it couldn't have happened to a better manager than Harry Redknapp. It almost makes up for the 2-3 loss at Loftus Road in 2012 which helped doom Dalglish.

And Liverpool did not deserve to win that game. The negatives were set play defending (obviously), the fullbacks, Rodgers' initial tactics, Balotelli's decision-making and finishing, the continued disconnect in attack, and a fair bit more. The few positives were Mignolet, Coutinho off the bench, Lovren at times, and those two late counters with the game more open than a pervert's trench coat.

And, I guess, Liverpool's resilience. For all that bad play, Liverpool didn't give up, and somehow scored twice after the clock struck 90. That's no small matter. That sort of resilience has started winning streaks in the past. Liverpool are, almost unbelievably, in fifth, only outside of the Champions League places on goal difference, at least until United play tomorrow, ahead of Arsenal, Spurs, and Everton.

But resilience alone will not be enough against better opposition. Not if Liverpool continue to play like this.

Liverpool at QPR 10.19.14

8:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h) 05.19.13
3-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.12
2-3 QPR (a) 03.21.12
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.10.11

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 West Brom (h); 0-1 Basel (a); 1-1 Everton (h)
QPR: 0-2 West Ham (a); 1-2 Southampton (a); 2-2 Stoke (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sterling 3; Gerrard 2; Henderson, Lallana, Moreno, Sturridge 1
QPR: Austin 2; Caulker, Kranjcar 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Manquillo Skrtel Toure Moreno
Gerrard
Henderson Allen
Sterling Balotelli Lallana

Well shit. Just when we thought we were out of the woods.

Allen's back! Can's back! Markovic wasn't really injured! Lovren might even be available! For once, an international break wasn't that bad.

And then Daniel Sturridge had to go and get injured again, in training, just when we thought he'd finally recovered. A calf strain now, after the earlier thigh strain. Fantastic.

So while Allen's return (as well as Can's) has the potential to help Liverpool's midfield immensely, we're still at frustrating square one up front.

And we're left with the same cobbled solutions. Will Lallana's steady improvement after missing the start of the season through injury lead to enough improvement in the 4-3-3? Does Rodgers need to give Borini or Lambert another shot in the 4-4-2 diamond? Can Balotelli get more of his shots inside the box rather than settling for long range efforts and/or put more of his shots on target?

We supposedly have a month to find out before Sturridge will be fit again. Just in time for another international break.

So I suspect it'll be the same formation which beat West Brom just before the break, but with Balotelli instead of Lambert and Allen back in the fold, and Liverpool will continue to need the type of support that Lallana, Sterling, and Henderson provided to fairly good effect in that fixture. The other possible change is at center-back, with Lovren questionable after pulling out of the Croatia squad with an abdomen issue. If Lovren's unavailable, we'll probably get a Kolo Toure sighting, as Sakho's still injured as well. So hold onto your butts.

If Toure has to play, at least Liverpool are facing what's been the worst side and worst attack in the league so far this season. QPR are currently bottom of the table on goal difference, having taken just four points while scoring just four goals and conceding 15. Although similar abhorrent records haven't stopped sides scoring against Liverpool before.

Redknapp's primarily played 4-5-1 so far this season, rarely braving two strikers up top. Even though they're at home, chances are that'll be the case tomorrow, more concerned with packing the midfield and defense against Liverpool than testing Liverpool's sometimes shambling defense. There's a template out there for stopping Liverpool, especially Liverpool without Sturridge, and I expect Redknapp will mostly follow it.

Barton, Mutch, and Faurlin are out injured, while Kranjcar will be a late fitness test, although I expect him to play if available. Which would make tomorrow's likely XI: Green; Onouha, Caulker, Ferdinand, Traore; Hoilett, Henry, Sandro, Fer, Kranjcar; Austin. The same XI which lost 0-2 to West Ham last time out. Matt Phillips and Adel Taraabt are options if Kranjcar is unavailable or in place of Hoilett. Isla could also play at either right wing – if Redknapp wants to double up with defenders on that flank – or right-back. If Redknapp surprisingly decides to go with two up front, the second striker will probably be Zamora, but Chilean Eduardo Vargas is also an option.

Liverpool have seven matches in the next 21 days. QPR, Madrid, Hull, Swansea, Newcastle, Madrid, and Chelsea. And Liverpool cannot look past tomorrow's fixture, no matter how weak they're opponent's been so far this season. The key to this run, which will go a long way in defining Liverpool's Champions League campaign, if not the league campaign, is to start it well, to build confidence and momentum before heading into more difficult fixtures. And, as usual, the key to playing well tomorrow will be to start tomorrow's match quickly, in complete contrast to the return from the last international break, where Liverpool went behind early to Aston Villa and never recovered.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 QPR

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a), QPR (a), Sunderland (h), Manchester United (a), Norwich (h), Arsenal (a), Manchester City (a), West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Wigan (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Aston Villa (a), West Ham (h), Reading (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


It's dangerous to take too much away from the last match of the campaign, with little to play for and against already relegated opposition. However, pretty much every section of the above infographic confirms Liverpool's dominance. Not that that's stopped them from throwing away points earlier in the season, mind.

Still, 536 completed passes (and 607 attempted) were the most since the 5-0 win against Norwich 16 matches ago. 66.4% possession was the most since that Norwich match as well, only topped by the two fixtures against Norwich and equalling the possession totals at QPR and against Sunderland. 28 shots were the most since hitting that mark at Reading six matches ago, and was the third-highest total of the season (behind 35 against Swansea and 29 against Villa). Liverpool completed more than twice as many passes as QPR, took almost three times as many shots, monopolized the ball, and really should have won by more than a single goal.

That Liverpool won by just a single goal really was yesterday's only disappointment. Well, that and Carragher's shot cannoning off the post in the 62nd minute. But Liverpool were wasteful, Liverpool were too content to shoot from distance, and too many of Liverpool's shots were blocked by QPR defenders. Which, although it hasn't happened much over the last few months, have been recurring problems this season.

Liverpool's 14 blocked shots were a high for the season; only the two matches against Aston Villa saw Liverpool's opponents block more than 10. Redknapp's sole desire yesterday was to prevent the type of humiliation his side endured in the reverse fixture at Loftus Road, where Liverpool scored three in opening half an hour against QPR's wide-open defense. Anything QPR managed to create in Liverpool's half was a bonus, and the utter paucity of Liverpool tackles and interceptions demonstrates just how small a priority attacking was for QPR. And on the whole, Redknapp succeeded, evident in the number of blocked shots, the number of shots Liverpool took from outside the box, and the copious tackles and interceptions just outside QPR's box. Unfortunately for Redknapp and QPR, they had already been humiliated by the events over the course of the season.

Coutinho took Liverpool's first four shots, more a finisher rather than creator yesterday, while Sturridge didn't take one until the 45th minute. Compare where Sturridge received the ball yesterday to his passes received at Fulham; operating much deeper and often with his back to goal. Against Fulham, Liverpool players created four chances for Sturridge inside the penalty box, but all three of the chances created for Sturridge yesterday came from outside the box, which led to two shots off-target and one shot blocked. Yesterday, against a packed defense, was the sort of match that Suarez often thrives in, although, admittedly, we saw similar attacking struggles against West Ham and Reading before his suspension. Without him for six more fixtures, Liverpool will need to improve against these sorts of parked bus back lines. Not everyone's as bad as QPR.

At least we can't credit Liverpool's lack of goals to an offensively-lacking center midfield. The worry about the Henderson/Lucas pairing was that they'd be functional and diligent, but unable to create enough against determined defending. Henderson and Lucas did wholly monopolize the ball as expected, jointly completing 168 of 183 passes (91.8%), but they also created five chances and completed 50 of 58 passes in the attacking third (86.2%). Which are excellent signs for the pairing in the future, even if there's still the caveat that yesterday's opponents posed next to no challenge.

Liverpool 1-0 QPR

Goals:
Coutinho 23'

Acta est fabula, plaudite!

No, that wasn't Jamie Carragher's testimonial. That happened a few years ago. Although, for all of QPR's threat, it might as well have been. He leaves with yet another clean sheet, and his 398th win in 737 appearances for Liverpool. And had his 62nd minute shot been two inches to the right, a goal that would have imploded Anfield.

It was only Liverpool's third 1-0 win in the league, following home victories against Reading and Southampton in October and December. But it never felt like a 1-0 win, with QPR offering next to no threat and Liverpool comfortable throughout. The margin of victory probably should have been more, which is a phrase I haven't written in a while.

There was less experimentation than with last week's XI, but Liverpool still found a place for Jordon Ibe, the seventh Academy player to make his debut this season, starting ahead of Shelvey and Borini on the left. And from the opening whistle, Ibe demonstrated the same strong running and intent he's shown for the u21s this season. Liverpool should have taken the lead within two minutes, from a corner no less, when QPR cleared Coutinho's header from about a foot behind the goal line, unseen by both referee and linesman. But goal line technology would ruin the game, right Sepp?

At least Liverpool didn't make us wait too much longer for the opening goal, unsurprisingly scored by the same player, who was the hub of everything good. The Brazilian received the ball from Ibe 25 yards out and whistled an unstoppable low shot past the despairing Rob Green, just rewards for the way Liverpool started the match.

But despite continued dominance, Liverpool couldn't find the second. Coutinho pulled the strings while Johnson and Enrique rampaged forward at will, but Sturridge couldn't make the same impact he had against Fulham, mostly well marshaled by Hill and Onouha. After halftime, Enrique, Ibe, Downing, and that aforementioned Carragher blast nearly extended the lead, Borini and Suso replaced Ibe and Coutinho, and Green saved shots from Suso and Enrique. Otherwise, the highlight was Carragher's substitution with five minutes to play, going off for a deserved standing ovation, followed by a tear-inducing low, slow version of You'll Never Walk Alone.

And thus ends Liverpool's season, and Jamie Carragher's 23-year affiliation with the club.

61 points is Liverpool's highest total since Rafa Benitez's final season four campaigns ago. It's nine points more and one place higher more than last season. Liverpool scored 29 more league goals this season, and conceded just three more. A lot of credit for that last stat goes to Jamie Carragher; Liverpool let in just 12 goals in the 15 league games he played since Norwich on January 19, keeping eight clean sheets.

There is obviously still much work to be done, not least in replacing a Liverpool legend. And I caution that we felt similar optimism at the end of the 2010-11 season, when Dalglish as caretaker seemed to put Liverpool on the right path, before Liverpool's summer transfer dealings took Liverpool off that path.

Nonetheless, over the second half of the season, we've seen Liverpool improve, in all areas and phases of the game. That improvement is a definite cause for optimism, and that optimism that will make the next three months a long, eagerly anticipated wait.

Liverpool v QPR 05.19.13

11am ET, not live on the US. Live on Fox Soccer 2Go, and delayed at 6:30pm ET on FSC.

Last season, Fox televised every match on the final day other than the one on espn2. There were matches on Speed, on Fuel TV, on pretty much every cable station Fox owned. This season? Nothing extra; just the standard three televised matches. Because what the fans want isn't worth shit now that Fox lost the PL contract. Good riddance, you terrible, terrible network.

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.12
2-3 QPR (a) 03.21.12
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.10.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 02.11.96

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Fulham (a); 0-0 Everton (h); 6-0 Newcastle (a)
QPR: 1-2 Newcastle (h); 0-1 Arsenal (h); 0-0 Reading (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 23; Sturridge 10; Gerrard 9; Henderson 5; Agger, Downing 3; Coutinho, Enrique, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Borini, Cole, Johnson, Şahin 1
QPR: Remy 6; Taarabt 5; Zamora 4; Cisse 3; Jenas, Mackie, Townsend 2; Bothroyd, Granero, Hoilett, Nelsen, Wright-Phillips 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Henderson Lucas
Downing Coutinho Shelvey
Sturridge

All's well that ends?

As has seemingly been written around this time in each of the last four years, it's been a long season. At least, in comparison to the previous campaign, it's gotten better as the season's gone on. There has been obvious progression, especially after Sturridge and Coutinho joined the club. Is that enough to make up for the lack of trophies, last season's sole consolation?

Tomorrow's focus will rightfully be on Jamie Carragher, who'll captain the side in his 737th appearance for Liverpool, 508th in the Premier League. His final appearance for Liverpool. When Carragher hangs up his boots, he'll have played in 81.8% of the 901 Liverpool games since he made his debut against Middlesbrough in January 1997. All the tributes the club have planned for tomorrow, all the fully deserved complimentary articles featured on the official site don't come close to encapsulating what Carragher's meant to this club, what Carragher's done for this club. It's imperative he's sent off with the best possible result, and "imperative" isn't a word I use lightly.

Otherwise, the major question is whether we'll see more experimentation. Last week's 3-6-1 trial worked and didn't work; Liverpool were far better when reverting to the more familiar 4-2-3-1 but the benefit was in the experiment, as well as in playing time for the likes of Coates and Wisdom.

Even with little to play for other than pride, I expect there will be fewer changes tomorrow, both in tactics and personnel. Skrtel should return from illness, partnering Carragher in central defense. If Liverpool play three at the back again, I suspect Coates will make way, with the more versatile Wisdom as one of the outside center-backs and Skrtel as the sweeper, but I still don't think that formation's likely. I also wouldn't be opposed to Wisdom starting in place of Glen Johnson, who – more than any other player – has shown the effects of the long season.

One of Henderson, Shelvey, and Borini will probably be the odd man out in attack. Both Henderson and Shelvey can play in central midfield or on the flanks, while Borini's finding his way back to fitness. I suspect that it'll be as Liverpool started the second half against Fulham, with Henderson in a deeper role and Shelvey deployed on the left but often cutting inside. But Henderson and Shelvey's versatility could allow them to switch roles, or one could be left out so the returning Borini can receive more playing time after spending the majority of the season injured.

Otherwise, no matter any experimentation, Reina will play, Lucas will play, Coutinho will play, Sturridge will play. Both Downing and Enrique – along with Henderson, two of Rodgers' greatest man-management successes this season – should play. Even in the last match of the season, the lineup still very much writes itself, especially in certain positions.

As for QPR, we'll start with this, as it's still incredibly hilarious.

I genuinely believe Harry will lead QPR to a higher finish than Spurs under AVB.

— talkSPORTDrive (@talkSPORTDrive) November 23, 2012

Not quite.

QPR have won four league matches under Redknapp of the 24 played, and have never been higher than 19th in the table. They'd need to win tomorrow with Reading also losing to West Ham to get out of 20th position. And they're winless in their last eight, with two draws and six losses, further evidence of the overpaid and overhyped side's inability to even pretend at staying in this league. This mercenary side deserves to finish rock bottom.

Julio Cesar, Chris Samba, and Shaun Wright-Phillips will miss tomorrow's match through injury. You'd think Loic Remy also wouldn't play after being arrested on suspicion of rape earlier in the week, but QPR have announced that he's available for selection.

Which means tomorrow's XI will most likely be Green; Boswinga, Onouha, Hill, Traore; Townsend, Jenas, Mbia, Taarabt; Remy, Zamora. But it's not as if Redknapp's wanting for options; Hoilett, Mackie, Granero, Park, and Fabio, among others, have all proven (at least in previous campaigns) that they're decent footballers. Which makes QPR's plight all the more egregious. And all the more hilarious.

I had hoped that QPR would stave off relegation until the final day. It'd have been throughly enjoyable had it been Liverpool who got to swing the sword of Damocles. Still, we'll have to make due with sending Jamie Carragher out in some style, in front of a grateful Anfield appreciative of his 23-year tenure with the club, and appreciative of the small, tentative strides that Liverpool have made over the course of the season.

Visualized: Liverpool 3-0 QPR

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.



Not much surprising; Liverpool controlled the match from start to finish, got the early goals (emphasis on the plural) in the first 30 minutes which allowed them to cruise to the finish line without breaking a sweat in the second half.

The 520 completed passes and 614 attempted passes were second- and third-most Liverpool played in a single match this season. The side completed more against Sunderland and Norwich, attempted more against just Norwich. Those are the only three league matches where Liverpool have attempted more than 600 passes and completed more than 500.

First proposed after the 4-0 victory over Fulham, the Reina passing theory remains in effect. Reina completed 20 passes against QPR, Liverpool won. Reina completed 16 passes against Stoke, Liverpool lost. The majority against QPR were short passes, but he even completed more than 50% of his long passes (six of 11). The updated record when Reina completes 20 or more passes is 5W-1D-1L; 1W-3D-5L when he doesn't. When the opposition presses the goalkeeper and defenders, forcing more long passes from Reina, Liverpool struggles to build attacks. Thankfully, not all sides can press Liverpool like Stoke, Villa, and a handful of others.

The shot-by-shot chart emphasizes just how much Liverpool took its foot off the gas in the second half. The side's only shot in the final 35 minutes was Agger's blocked effort following a short corner. Comparatively, ten of Liverpool's 19 shots came in the final 20 minutes of the first half, including the killer third goal, with four in the three minutes prior to that death knell. A spell of pressure wearing down the opposition, leading to a goal. That's exactly what we haven't seen enough of this season. Liverpool took more than 15 shots in a single half just once this season: 21 in the second half against Aston Villa (and we all remember how that worked out, mostly because 11 of those 21 came outside the box). There have been three matches this season where Liverpool took fewer than 15 shots in 90 minutes: against United, Everton, and Chelsea.

Similar is the case when comparing Liverpool's passing chalkboards for each half. It's even clearer when considering just the attacking third passes, attempting 21 fewer in the final 45 minutes. Most notably, there's a big hole on the right flank. Much of that is due to Enrique's injury – compare Downing and Suso's passes received – but Liverpool were also simply far less attacking-oriented after the interval.

Some credit for that also goes to QPR's change in tactics; Redknapp wasn't kidding about "damage limitation" with the Derry for Cisse substitution. QPR made just one more tackle and three more interceptions in the second half, but those interceptions came far deeper in their own half, just as happy as Liverpool to keep the scoreline at 3-0, sitting back in order to prevent yet another breakthrough.

One of QPR's (and Cisse's) many failings was a failure to test Agger and Skrtel in the air, which was a large reason for both Villa and Stoke's success. The away side won 11 of the 19 aerial duels; Villa won 16 of 26, Stoke 24 of 50. That wasn't even close to an issue yesterday. QPR won just one in Liverpool's defensive third: Clint Hill out-jumping Raheem Sterling in the 77th minute during a free kick – a free kick that Liverpool eventually counter-attacked from. However, Steven Fletcher should present more of a problem on Wednesday, especially with Sunderland's willingness to cross through Johnson and McClean, as well as Enrique's likely absence at left back.

Liverpool 3-0 QPR

Goals:
Suarez 10' 16'
Agger 28'

The first half was another "proper response" to a Liverpool disappointment. The second half was a mere formality that both sides probably would have rather done without. So be it; that'll more than do. Goodbye and good riddance, 2012.

It followed the same script as Liverpool's last proper response. Lose to Villa, hammer Fulham, out of sight by halftime. Lose to Stoke, hammer QPR, out of sight within 30 minutes. I don't think this is the consistency that Rodgers was after, but it's consistency none the less.

That performance made it fairly easy to understand why QPR prop up the Premier League table, but – like against Fulham – Liverpool fully merited its early advantage. This time it was thanks to Suarez, all Suarez, creating both goals from next to nothing after laying a marker by testing Cesar with a fierce blast in the third minute. Clint Hill won't enjoy watching replays of the opener, made when Suarez received a pass from Henderson in space between the lines and charged at Hill, completely bamboozling him with a shoulder feint, then sprinting past to easily slot into the corner. Opta's head of content sarcastically called it a Suarez throughball for himself. He wasn't far off.

Six minutes later, that same man tallied again: flicking on a Skrtel long ball for Downing, getting the return pass and racing across the byline. His low cross towards Sterling was well cut out by Onouha, but Suarez was first to the rebound by some distance, smashing in with his left foot from point-blank range.

From there, it looked as if Liverpool could have any scoreline they chose. QPR's ragged defense retreated deeper and deeper and Liverpool monopolized the ball, with Henderson heavily involved as the most advanced midfielder and Gerrard making excellent runs from deep. Taarabt was literally the only QPR player making an effort, and was limited to more-than-hopeful shots from distance, none of which truly tested Reina.

Liverpool chose 3-0, all but declaring after Agger headed in from a short corner, the second time Liverpool's scored from a short corner in the last three games after going a full year without doing so. Gerrard had a deflected shot cleared off the line in the 37th and sailed an effort over the bar four minutes later, but otherwise, Liverpool were happy to be comfortable.

On the one hand, it's completely understandable to take the foot off the gas after a packed festive season, two more matches within a week, and with handful of players and staff suffering from sickness (Rodgers, Brad Jones, and Glen Driscoll had to miss the match with norovirus, Colin Pascoe took Rodgers' place but reportedly had a different illness). On the other, a curb-stomping – which QPR were totally there for – is not only tons of fun but good for morale. Especially when it's a Harry Redknapp side getting curb-stomped.

Liverpool took 15 shots in the first half. They took four in the second half. That about sums it up. Lucas replaced Henderson, Suso replaced Enrique, and Carragher came on for Allen in the final minutes as the side cruised home with next to no energy expended.

Unfortunately, the only incident of note in the final 45 minutes was an injury to Enrique: at best a hamstring strain, at worse a hamstring tear. Neither is good. Whether he's replaced by Downing or Johnson, with Wisdom at right back, is a discussion for another day, but he's assuredly missing the next few matches at the very least. It just wouldn't be Liverpool without some bad news.

Like against Fulham, it's hard to tell how much was due to Liverpool competence or QPR's incompetence. Given QPR's league form, it's tempting to assume their incompetence played a large part in it. Nonetheless, credit where due. In those first 30 minutes, Suarez was at his unplayable best; Clint Hill's having nightmares for at least a week. Gerrard was again outstanding in a deeper role, making smart runs into the box (and unlucky not to score at least once) while contributing with some key defensive plays. His five tackles and three interceptions were both team highs. Allen and Gerrard kept Taarabt fairly quiet despite those multiple shots from distance, Henderson did well in an attacking role, and Agger and Skrtel both responded brilliantly at the other end of the pitch, marking Cisse into such oblivion that he was taken off at half-time for a defensive midfielder. At the same time, it's the first time that QPR have conceded more than twice in Redknapp's seven matches, as well as the first time they've lost by more than a single goal.

QPR may have been utterly dire, but at least Liverpool end 2012 on a positive note. Another annus horribilis, arguably the third in a row, started with a 0-3 away defeat, but ends with a 3-0 away win (don't bother looking up the respective opposition). There's obviously a long, long way to go, but here's hoping it's a sign of better to come in 2013.

Liverpool at QPR 12.30.12

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
2-3 QPR (a) 03.21.12
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.10.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 02.11.96
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.30.95

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Stoke (a); 4-0 Fulham (h); 1-3 Villa (h)
QPR: 1-2 WBA (h); 0-1 Newcastle (a); 2-1 Fulham (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 11; Gerrard 4; Skrtel 2; Agger, Cole, Downing, Enrique, Johnson, Şahin, Sterling 1
QPR: Taarabt 4; Cisse, Zamora 3; Mackie 2; Granero, Hoilett, Nelsen 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Allen
Gerrard
Downing Suarez Sterling

Joy. Another "bounce back" match. Haven't been enough of those so far this season.

Unlike on Boxing Day, there should definitely be some changes for this one. As usual, the preeminent questions are about rotation in midfield and who'll play on the flanks in attack. With the preferred back four fit, the preferred back four will start, despite concerns about form after the displays against West Ham, Villa, and Stoke.

That Rodgers spoke about the need to manage Lucas' fitness when discussing injury concerns makes me think that the Brazilian may be left out of tomorrow's XI. Although that might not be the smartest idea with QPR's Adel Taarabt lurking dangerously between the lines.

Regardless, I'd be incredibly surprised if Allen didn't start for the third successive match. And assuming Lucas doesn't start, that leaves Shelvey and Henderson competing for the last spot. Because Gerrard's starting because Gerrard starts, end of discussion. Either Henderson can play deeper, with Allen behind Gerrard, or Shelvey reprises the attacking midfield role he played against Fulham and Stoke. Considering how poorly his last performance went, I'd think the former is the more likely possibility. But again, this is all dependent on whether I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, and Rodgers truly will rest Lucas.

The front three seems slightly more straight-forward. Like Allen, Sterling also looks certain to come back into the side, meaning Downing and Suso are in contention for the final slot; as far as we know, Assaidi's still battling a knee problem, and Joe Cole has reverted to being Joe Cole after his one-off rage against the dying of light against West Ham. After his inauspicious display against Fulham, and despite the team-wide failure against Stoke, Downing seems deserving of a run of games, a chance at multiple consecutive starts under Rodgers before the opening of the transfer window.

After a month on the job, Harry Redknapp's QPR remain rooted to the bottom of the table, but only behind Reading on goal difference (at least until Reading host West Ham later today). Redknapp finally broke QPR's cherry with a home win against Fulham two weeks ago, but failed to build on that breakthrough, losing to Newcastle and West Brom in the last two matches.

'Arry 'as kept a fairly consistent XI during his reign, with his hands partly tied by injuries. Nelsen, Onouha, Park, and Julio Cesar are doubtful; Boswinga, Zamora, and Andy Johnson are definitely out.

Redknapp's side has played 4-2-3-1 in five of his six matches – the lone change to 4-1-4-1 against Wigan, ostensibly to counteract Martinez's unusual formation – and it'll probably be the case tomorrow as well. If Cesar's not available, Robert Green will start in goal. If neither Nelsen nor Onouha are fit, the back four should be Fabio, Ferdinand, Hill, and Traore. Two from Mbia, Faurlin, and Diakite have been the midfielders in all of Redknapp's matches, and the former two have been preferred in the last three. The attacking line of three will be one of two options: either Taarabt plays in the middle, flanked by Mackie and Wright-Phillips, or Granero starts as the #10 with Taarabt and one of the two aforementioned wingers; Junior Hoillett, often rumored to be a Liverpool target last season, has primarily been used as a substitute. Finally, ex-Liverpool player Djibril Cisse will start up front.

Given how much trouble Carlton Cole, Benteke, and Kenwyne Jones have caused Liverpool during the last month, maybe it's a good thing that Zamora's out injured. But Djibril CIsse presents a whole host of different concerns. He's still the same player he was at Liverpool: incredibly fast and incredibly frustrating; can score from anywhere on the pitch and will shoot from everywhere on the pitch; and will probably be flagged offside approximately 16 times per match. On his day, he's unplayable. As with all ex-Liverpool players, I worry tomorrow will be that day, but in theory, Agger's well-equipped to deal with Cisse's talents. Like Cisse, Taarabt's also capable of the deliriously brilliant and the simply delirious. If Lucas is out, Allen will have a tough task marking him. And if he plays on the flank – most likely the left flank if that's the case – Liverpool's fullback, whether Johnson or Enrique, will have to restrain his runs forward to keep an eye on him. Conversely, that fullback will also know Taarabt won't be tracking back.

In the previous two seasons, a trip to relegation-threatened QPR would be cause for concern; for the most part, Liverpool punched above their weight against the top six then proceeded to draw or lose to sides in the bottom half of the table. Like, you may remember, against this side on this ground last season, when Liverpool somehow squandered a 2-0 lead in the final 15 minutes. The opposite has been the case this season. All six of Liverpool's league wins have come against sides below them in the table, while the only defeat against a bottom-half team was two weeks ago to Aston Villa. Who – yes, yes – proceeded to concede 12 goals in their next two matches while scoring none, but bear with me anyway.

The above isn't to suggest this will be a cut-and-dry three points. We're all well aware – fans, players, manager, the world – that there are no cut-and-dry three points for Liverpool. Not this season, not anymore. Nonetheless, the expectation is there. Everyone expects a response to the Boxing Day Massacre, expects Liverpool to win, even though they've won so few matches during this season and this calendar year. If you thought the howls of condemnation were loud after Stoke, I shudder to imagine the criticism if Liverpool turn out a similarly disappointing performance tomorrow.

It's the last match of 2012, a year that began with a demoralizing 0-3 defeat and somehow saw many more nadirs. End it on a different note, please.

Liverpool 2-3 QPR

Goals:
Coates 54'
Kuyt 72'
Derry 77'
Cisse 86'
Mackie 90+1'

Unforgivable.

In a season full of stupid, regrettable results, this may well be the worst – a line I've definitely written before. Liverpool, despite some poor play, had all three points wrapped up, signed, sealed, and set for delivery. And, beyond carelessly, handed them straight back to an equally-if-not-even-more insipid QPR. Because of individual mistakes from supposedly-stalwart veterans, and mostly because this team has all the confidence of a hormonal, pubescent teenager.

Liverpool were never going to deploy the same XI which beat Stoke, or Everton for that matter. Three games in eight days, with Wigan on Saturday, made that an impossibility. Still, the change in formation, if not personnel, was surprising. Adam and Kuyt came in for Maxi and Carroll, with Liverpool shifting to a 4-3-3.

While it wasn't as fluid as the 4-4-2 we'd seen in the last two matches, it was certainly strong enough. Had Liverpool – read: Suarez – scored in the 4th minute, it might have all been different. Once again, Liverpool began like a house engulfed in flames, but were frustratingly unable to burn said house to the ground. Adam's through-ball put the Uruguayan striker one-on-one with Paddy Kenny almost immediately, but Suarez shot too close to the keeper rather than rounding him. Liverpool racked up 11 corners in the first 20 minutes, but failed to score on any; Skrtel and Kuyt had efforts cleared out of the six yard box, while Downing had a couple of shots blocked in open play.

As has become all too typical, Liverpool started to push too hard, too frantically, making too many mistakes once the goal didn't come. Then came the QPR chances and Liverpool injuries. Enrique nearly scored the goal of the season at his own end, amazingly redirecting a QPR cross backward but over the bar. Then Cisse sent half of Loftus Road into hysterics when his shot appeared to hit the back of the net, but actually whistled past the post and behind the goal.

Just as debilitating were injuries to Kelly and Adam, the first evidently not over the knock suffered against Stoke, the latter when wildly (read: typically) chasing a ball down the byline. Coates came on for Kelly in the 34th, with Carragher moving to right back and Coates strangely slotting in at right center-back, probably because the coaching staff doesn't trust Coates without Carra lecturing him along. Fat lot of good that did. Adam went off at halftime, replaced by Henderson, which completely changed the formation.

Henderson played tucked-in on the right, Downing shifted to the left, and Kuyt drifted behind and around Suarez, similar to the formation used against Arsenal. And it stuttered and stopped and stuttered and cheaply conceded possession and then Coates struck. Oh boy did Coates strike. There's no way words will do it justice.

It looked to be another chance gone on Liverpool's 14th corner. Gerrard's delivery scrambled away to Downing, but cleared off the line. Ho hum, yet another near goal rifled away at the last minute. At least it didn't hit the woodwork. But Zamora's clearance didn't take the Uruguayan defender's technical ability into account, a trapeze artist's goal, acrobatically scissor-kicked past an unsighted Kenny. The ferocity of the strike would have taken the keeper into the net with it were he unfortunate enough to get in the way.

Suarez's something from nothing, with the woodwork unsurprisingly involved, appeared an end to the fixture's competitiveness. At least it should have given QPR's abysmal record over the last four months. The Uruguayan striker, who only scores wonder goals, somehow jinked behind three defenders before rocketing a shot off the foot of the post. Downing followed up, with his rebound saved by Kenny, but Kuyt was typically on hand for a typical slide-tackle rebound. 2-0, game over. Or not.

Sometimes, one substitution can change the game. Jamie Mackie's introduction did just that. Admittedly, Mackie came on in the 62nd, ten minutes before Kuyt's goal, but the mood of the stadium noticeably turned when the winger replaced the massively awful (and evidently unliked) Joey Barton. And a loud ground can give the home side confidence while draining the opposition. Not that Liverpool needs help with draining confidence.

QPR's opener absolutely drained Liverpool, already precariously unconfident all too often. Five minutes after QPR were definitively beaten, QPR were back in it. Of course, it should have never come to that. Howard Webb, who'd let multiple fouls go unpunished for both sides, punished Skrtel for a nothing foul on Zamora. QPR wasted the free kick, but not the resulting corner: Derry easily out-jumped both Henderson and Carragher, both idiotically facing their own goal rather than whomever they were marking.

If you thought Loftus Road was loud after Mackie's introduction, now Loftus Road was really loud. I hate to keep harping on confidence and luck and confidence, but those intangibles matter. There are no easy remedies, but Liverpool need to find a remedy. Only one side looked like scoring after Derry's goal. It was not Liverpool. And of course it was Cisse who struck the equalizer, heading past Reina after Taiwo crossed all too easily around Henderson and Carragher. Less expected was the defender Cisse out-jumped – Martin Skrtel, Liverpool's player of the season so far, caught flat-footed and ball-watching like the past season of brilliance had never happened.

Pity there was enough time for QPR's third, because there was enough time for another defender to make another unconscionable error. Enrique, in the grand tradition of Liverpool left-backs like John Arne Riise, proved his right leg was only good for standing, at best, completely missing when trying to clear a nothing header, allowing Mackie one-on-one with Reina. Unlike when Liverpool were in a similar position at the start of the game, the substitute made no mistake with his finishing. Story of the season and so forth.

This result didn't happen because Liverpool changed formation or personnel. It didn't happen because of the two injuries. Or because of Liverpool's usual profligacy early on, unable to take chances while the opposition has no problem doing so. Or because Adam started. Or because Suarez was subbed off not long before QPR's second, replaced by Carroll in a misguided attempt to keep possession. Admittedly, none of those things helped. But this result happened because three defenders did incredibly stupid things at the worst possible moments – two who have been two of Liverpool's best players this season. And it happened because Liverpool seemingly expects things to go wrong instead of ensuring that things go right.

This game was won. Unfortunately, the eleven players on the field thought similar, then apprehensively retreated after conceding, like a beaten puppy who expects another whipping. Well, they got it. Liverpool have set a few unwelcome milestones this season, but today saw a new one. This is the first time that Liverpool have let a two-goal lead slip since November 2000, a 3-4 loss to Leeds. 11 and a half years. 136 months. Blah blah blah days and seconds. It's been a long time.

After a result like this, it's hard to care where Liverpool finish in the league after the next nine games, a situation ensured by disappointments before this most recent. They'll undoubtedly be better in the FA Cup, because cup runs seemingly restore this side's lost confidence. All I care about over these next nine matches is this side finding some self-belief and intelligence instead of scrambling around like headless chickens waiting for the next ax to drop. Pretend that every match is a cup tie if that's what it takes. Both players and management – equally, everybody – are at fault for the all-too-frequent lack of either.

Liverpool at QPR 03.21.12

4pm ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.10.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 02.11.96
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.30.95
1-1 (h) 02.11.95

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (h); 3-0 Everton (h); 0-1 Sunderland (a)
QPR: 1-2 Bolton (a); 1-1 Everton (h); 0-1 Fulham (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll 3; Adam, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson, Kuyt 1
QPR: Helguson 8; Mackie 4; Barton, Bothroyd, Cisse, Smith, Young, Zamora 2; Buzsaky, Campbell, Faurlin 1

Referee: Howard Webb

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Coates Enrique
Henderson Gerrard Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll

No matter how well Liverpool's consistent line-up has worked over the last two matches, three games in a week makes the same XI unlikely. Maxi almost assuredly won't start two matches in four days, Carragher probably won't start three in eight. At the same time, Agger's still out, as are Johnson and Bellamy. There are also concerns over Kelly and Suarez, both picking up knocks in the second half against Stoke, but neither were mentioned by the manager in his pre-match injury update.

Dalglish has to find the balance between fatigue and a settled, performing line-up. Henderson should reclaim his place on the right, shifting the finally-finding-form Downing back to the left. As usual, I'm again tempted to think Adam will return, but Liverpool have been much better in midfield without him; the Spearing-Gerrard partnership is the first real midfield partnership Liverpool have had since Lucas' injury. Carroll's another who might have trouble starting three matches in a week – if he can't, expect Kuyt to take his place – but Liverpool have won every match that Suarez, Carroll, and Gerrard have all started. Since losing at Bolton in late January, Liverpool are unbeaten when Carroll starts, with six wins and a draw, compared to a draw and three losses without him in the line-up.

Incidentally, Liverpool's line-up in the reverse fixture was fairly similar to that used in the last two matches, except with Kuyt up top and a different central midfield pairing. Liverpool were typically profligate in that match, but narrowly won 1-0 on Suarez's goal. That was one of just four fixtures where Maxi has started on the left and Downing on the right. Liverpool were unbeaten in all four, with FA Cup wins over Stoke and United as well as the 1-1 draw against Blackburn.

In 18th, only off the bottom on goal difference, QPR are winless since January 21, when the side beat fellow relegation candidates Wigan 3-1 at home. Since then, Hoops have lost five and drawn two, including losses against similarly struggling Blackburn, Wolves, and Bolton. QPR are the only side in the league without a win in its last six matches, easily bottom of the form table, and have won just two of their last 19 matches: the aforementioned victory over Wigan immediately preceded by an FA Cup win over League One MK Dons.

However, of those 12 defeats since late November, QPR have lost by more than one goal just once: 0-2 against United three months ago. Every other loss has been by a single strike – whether 2-3 at Blackburn, a relative goal-fest, or 0-1 at Arsenal or versus Chelsea or versus Liverpool. They may have lost far far far too many matches, but they haven't been overwhelmed in any of them.

Hughes has preferred a 4-4-2 formation in the 10 matches since he took over, rarely shifting to a 4-4-1-1 with Buzsaky or Wright-Phillips between the lines. At home, QPR will threaten Liverpool more with two up front, almost assuredly Zamora and ex-Liverpool striker Djibril Cisse. I expect QPR to be relatively unchanged from the side which narrowly lost to Bolton last time out: Kenny; Onouha, Ferdinand, Hill, Traore; Barton, Derry, Diakite, Wright-Phillips; Cisse, Zamora. Barton might play in the center, with Mackie or Taarabt coming in on the flanks, but that's the extent of likely changes.

Cisse can conjure goals from little, well-rounded but erratic, as Liverpool fans most likely remember. Zamora's burly threat is common knowledge. Wright-Phillips, Mackie, and Taarabt are all quick wide players, most dangerous on the counter, which is mostly likely how QPR will have to play. Despite Rangers' lack of goals of late, there are goals in this side. Campbell and Helguson, both out-of-favor since Cisse and Zamora signed during the January window, are QPR's only injury concerns.

Four of Liverpool's next five matches are against sides placed 15th or lower in the league: at QPR, against Wigan, against Villa, and at Blackburn, with a trip to sixth-placed Newcastle smack in the middle. Not to be overly, wrongly optimistic, but the fixture list sets up nicely for a late charge in the league. Of course, this season's largest failing has been frustrating, goal-shy disappointments against sides Liverpool should beat handily. Form and confidence are more important than Liverpool's final league position; finishing the season as strongly as possible is by far the most important goal. The next five matches, beginning tomorrow, will demonstrate how much progress the side has made over the last few weeks.

Liverpool 1-0 QPR

Goals:
Suarez 47'

Just good enough. The difference that taking just one of those oft-mentioned chances makes.

25 shots, eight on target, with the woodwork hit twice. 62% possession, 21 chances created. A handful of impressive, out-of-character saves by the opposition goalkeeper. But one went in, and one was enough.

The first half was the same story writ large in giant, tedious letters. Liverpool dominant, Liverpool untroubled, but Liverpool unable to score despite multiple opportunities to do so. The home side simply played keep-away, camped in QPR's half, winning seven corners in the first half hour. Within 15 minutes, Suarez had put a free header straight at Cerny, had an impossible-angled shot skitter across the face of goal after nicking the post, and had misfired after a brilliant one-two with the again-impressive Maxi. Cerny spectacularly denied the South American dynamic duo in the 31st and 42nd, then smothered Downing's near post blast to close the half. Suarez and Johnson also appealed for respective penalties that Mason would never deign to give. Meanwhile, QPR's lone riposte was a Wright-Phillips blast from distance that was more threatening to the stewards than Reina.

But nothing went in.

Then, in the 47th, something went in. Suarez, somehow allowed a second chance to avenge an opportunity wasted, set up by Adam's outstanding right-footed cross, put a free header from the exact same position where Cerny couldn't reach it this time.

Nothing ever comes easily, so it goes without saying that Liverpool weren't fortunate enough to burst that ubiquitous dam. Repeating heroics seen in front of the Kop all too often this season, QPR were kept in the game by their third-string (!) keeper, on a personal mission to deny Maxi an 11th goal in 10 starts. Cerny stonewalled the Argentinean twice, in the 61st and 67th, both set up by Suarez. The first was the other effort off the woodwork, saved onto the post after Suarez jinked into space and cut back to the penalty spot. The second was point blank after a four-touch one-two-one-two rendered both center-backs irrelevant.

With Liverpool increasingly content to counter-attack a compressed opposition after finally making the break-through, QPR's second substitution – replacing winger Tommy Smith with former Blackpool striker DJ Campbell with 25 minutes to play – made life marginally more terrifying. The away side finally had spells of coordinated possession, but few moments actually required Reina to contemplate intervention: a wild shot from distance here, a dangerous free kick flicked well over there, a few punches on the few corners QPR earned. When needed, Liverpool's defenders defended excellently: Skrtel consistently and Enrique notably on QPR's best and only real chance, in injury time, doing just enough to prevent a close-range back post header.

Because Liverpool's attackers got that one needed goal, the spine can get its due plaudits. The center-backs brooked no quarter and the only two available central midfielders, who hadn't previously started together in a two-man pairing, set the tone and tempo. Henderson's non-stop movement and Adam's ability on the ball muted Barton and Faurlin, and were crucial to Liverpool controlling the pace in the first hour. Adam, increasingly comfortable in every successive match, has been in outstanding form since Chelsea – better positionally, stronger on the ball, and winning aerial duels to go along with the ever-present (sometimes wayward) guided missile passing. And another pairing – the aforementioned Suarez and Maxi – will get deserved plaudits, the latter constantly threatening, as is his wont, and the former sccoring the winner, having his best game since that (sigh) first FA charge.

Admittedly, just one goal wasn't good enough against Norwich or Sunderland, and there were still far too many similarities to those set-backs. Opposition keeping and opportunities spurned remain valid, frustrating talking points, foreplay too often unfulfilled. But getting the necessary three points, any way possible, forged with resolute defending from all involved, is both confidence-enhancing progress and far more enjoyable than previously-seen alternatives.