Visualized: Liverpool 2-0 Cardiff

Previous Match Infographics: Porto (A), Chelsea (h), Porto (h), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), Fulham (a), Bayern Munich (a), Burnley (h), Everton (a), Watford (h), Manchester United (a), Bayern Munich (h), Bournemouth (h) West Ham (a), Leicester (h), Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



I enjoy this team a lot. For the most part, they're all surprisingly likable. They're almost all quite good at the football.

And, somehow – in the meat of the season, with the pressure ratcheted up to 11, in a two-team race with one of the best sides this league's ever had – they just keep winning.

In a lot of ways, we've seen this match before. Quite a bit lately. The stutters and the suffering. The grinding. The 90 minutes of torture.

To be fair, the first half was better than 0-0 suggested. Two clear-cut chances untaken: Firmino ballooning when put through and Salah denied by Etheridge. A couple other reasonable chances through Mané and Firmino. But it's close and it's in the balance and we're on edge, because that's where we are in the season and the standings.

So we get the stutters and the suffering and the grind and a fairly unremarkable first half, but Liverpool finally opens the scoring not long into the second.

Klopp on Gini goal: The boys decided this at half time in the dressing room, they saw the space on set pieces. I love that.

— This Is Anfield (@thisisanfield) April 21, 2019

I love it too. This is not only a hard-working, never-say-die side. It's not only a very, very talented side. It is a surprisingly clever side, one that's increasingly capable of reacting in-game, whether through the players or manager.

To be fair, we have seen quite a few set play goals so far this season.



There are a handful of goals against Liverpool's peers. The opener at Tottenham back in September, the winner at Bayern, the winner over Tottenham. But the vast majority have come against the bus-parkers. The dross.

West Ham, Leicester, Southampton, Fulham (both matches), Watford (both matches), Burnley, Wolves, Newcastle, Bournemouth, and now Cardiff. Sides currently sitting 11th, 9th, 16th, 19th, 8th, 15th, 10th, 13th, 14th, and 18th. And you can pick whichever category you'd like to put Everton in.

If we're being charitable to Everton, that's four of six opening goals against the dross. And five of the eight game-winners. Aside from running up the score against West Ham, Newcastle, and Watford, they've all been meaningful goals – not that many goals aren't.



I'm sure it's just coincidence that the two seasons in the last ten years where Liverpool led the league in set plays goals were 2013-14 and 2018-19.

And Liverpool needed Sunday's set play goal.

"Cardiff was only the second league match Liverpool have won since Salah signed where none of the first choice front three got on the score sheet. If the first has slipped your mind, I’ve got two words to remind you: Divock Origi."

My @LivEchoLFC column: https://t.co/ZfAEONUkKD

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) April 22, 2019

I know that stat's right and I'm still tempted to go look line-by-line over the last two seasons. Liverpool's front three do not let the side down often, but it is essential that Liverpool get goals from other sources the few times that they do.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the pitch. As far as Liverpool matches go, only the reverse fixture saw less opposition possession than Sunday's, and no side's attempted or competed fewer passes against Liverpool this season. But Cardiff at least posed a little bit of a threat. Mendez-Laing helped to pin Alexander-Arnold back early in the first half. The average position diagram suggests that Cardiff targeted Matip and Alexander-Arnold on that flank, as does Cardiff's attacking direction. But Matip and van Dijk cleared nearly everything asked, with both heavily involved in Liverpool's attacking build-up.

More notable was Sean Morrison's clear-cut chance in the 64th minute, just seven after Liverpool scored. But Alisson got the faintest of touches on the cross in, and the ball hit Morrison on the back rather than the head and popped into the air rather than the back of Liverpool's net. As per usual, a bit of luck and a bit of skill – Alisson also did well to save Niasse's corner header just before halftime – and the score stayed at 1-0, and we survive another day.

Morrison's clear-cut chance was Cardiff's last shot of the afternoon, a warning to push Liverpool back into gear, and a reminder that what set plays giveth, set plays can taketh away. Liverpool shut it down, Morrison did a stupid in truing to wrestle Salah, Milner notched the penalty, and we're done here.

And we'll do it all over again in a week. More than likely in a similar manner.

Visualized: Liverpool 4-1 Cardiff City

Previous Match Infographics: Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



Baby steps.

For 65 minutes, it was 1-0 Huddersfield, 1-0 Brighton. More the latter than the former, with Liverpool dominant in both possession and shots. But possession domination doesn’t always correlate to a good Liverpool performance and the majority of Liverpool’s shots were low-value shots. An early goal but no more. Possession without reward, possession running up against a thick brick wall then restarting again. A match narrower than it should be. Liverpool not as coherent or as thorough as we know they can be.

We’d been here before, both this season and in previous.

Liverpool’s nine shots between the first and second goal were all off-target or blocked, although there was Lallana’s on-target effort cleared off the line, technically “blocked” because it was cleared by a defender rather than a goalkeeper. Six of those nine shots came from outside the box, which is the highest proportion of shots from outside the box so far this season.

Liverpool may have been in control, but Cardiff were perfectly happy in their own right. 1-0 was little different than 0-0, as we’ve seen from multiple opponents of a similar level so far this season. Continue to defend as if lives depended upon it, hope for a mistake or a set play or something. Taking a point off of Liverpool at Anfield remains the apex of ambitions for two-thirds of the league, and you’re about as likely to do so at 1-0 as 0-0. Just don’t let them get to 2-0.

We’ve almost never seen Liverpool matches with more Liverpool possession. There has been only one league match with more Liverpool possession and a greater disparity in passing since Klopp became manager: 0-2 at Burnley at the beginning of 2016-17, where Burnley completely bunkered after Liverpool stupidly conceded early on. There have been only two other league matches in the last three-plus seasons where Liverpool had more than 75% possession: 1-1 v Everton last season and 2-0 at Sunderland in 2016-17. An embarrassing loss, a frustrating draw, and a win that only came very, very late, with two goals after the 75th minute against a side that’d be relegated at the end of the season.

That much possession, against a side happy to sit that deep, hasn’t good especially well for Klopp’s Liverpool in the past.

Saturday was different. Because, in the 66th minute, Liverpool got a second.

For the final 15 minutes – the final 25 if we somehow ignore Cardiff’s consolation – it was Red Star Belgrade rather than Brighton or Huddersfield. Counter-pressing by Firmino and Mané leading to Liverpool’s second, a refusal to let the ball leave Cardiff’s penalty area after Fabinho got it in there before a blistering finish. Continued boulder rolling downhill possession before Salah danced through two defenders and Shaqiri danced around two more for the game-killing third. An actual honest-to-goodness blitz counter: Fabinho winning the ball, to Mane to Salah running at retreating defenders, through ball back to Mané, exclamation point.

That’s the Liverpool we’ve missed. That’s the Liverpool we’re going to see more often in the coming weeks and months.

It should have been over after the second goal, but we got a timely reminder that it takes just one moment. Mané doesn’t track back. Moreno does a Moreno, rashly charging at Reid to win the ball and missing allowing Hoilett to receive a pass in space behind the defense. His cross ricochets off van Dijk directly to Paterson; it would have been behind the striker had it not hit van Dijk.

There goes Liverpool’s clean sheet streak, more than nine matches and 918 minutes without conceding at home in the league. And I ain’t mad at it. It was a little poor and a little unlucky but sometimes that’s all to need to concede. Even when you’ve had almost 80% possession and the opposition’s yet to register a shot.

It’s a helpful reminder that’s all it takes sometimes. Never switch off, no matter the opponents or game state. Must not sleep. Must warn others.

And once Cardiff got a goal, Liverpool got the chances. No nerves. No tilt. Just back to business. Once you get to 2-0, the opposition’s got to open up. And once they get to 2-1, they believe there’s a chance for 2-2. It’s happened to previous incarnations of Liverpool, as we all very much remember.

This might be a different Liverpool.

2-1 is when Liverpool started to register shots again. 2-1 is when Liverpool got chances to counter. 2-1 is when the front three found space to create chances for themselves, with Salah getting both of his assists with those last two goals.

Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 formation again looked decent, at least at the controlling midfield base, Wijnaldum literally always on the ball and Fabinho capable of moving it forward from deep, both capable of winning possession back if Cardiff ever truly tried to transition. Wijnaldum only completed 14 fewer passes than Cardiff in total. Lovren and van Dijk controlled the majority of long balls from defense, winning a combined 15 aerial duels when that was Cardiff’s main tactic for progression, with goalkeeper Neil Etheridge playing the joint-most passes for the away side.

How dominant were Liverpool in possession? No Cardiff player attempted more passes than any Liverpool outfield player, with even Liverpool’s two substitutes playing more than any opponent. I can’t remember that every happening.

Liverpool’s substitutions helped matters, with Shaqiri more influential than Lallana, creating for Salah before finally scoring his first Liverpool goal. Milner came on for more solidity, the three in midfield a platform for both the turning-the-screws possession before Liverpool’s goal, then winning-the-ball-back transition for Liverpool’s fourth.

And Liverpool’s attack goes and gets goals. Salah and Mané each on the score sheet, for the second match in a row. It’s the second time this season’s Mané's scored twice in a match, it’s the first time Salah’s registered two assists in a match since the 5-2 win over Roma back in April. Even if Firmino has an off day – just one shot and one key pass, routinely man-marked by Gunnarsson – the other two compensated more than adequately.

There were struggles. There was frustration. There were some of the issues that have plagued Liverpool – unbeaten in the league Liverpool – over the last month. But then there was the return of potency we’d been hoping to see continue following the romp over Red Star. There’s another win, a resounding win by the end of it, in the type of match that’s foiled and frustrated Liverpool in seasons past. There’s now ten games unbeaten to start the campaign.

There’s Liverpool, top of the table, at least for a few more hours today.

Liverpool 4-1 Cardiff City

Goals:
Salah 10’
Mané 66’ 86’
Paterson 77’
Shaqiri 84’

Normal service, resumed. For the most part.

Four goals, for the second time in four days. Four goals in consecutive matches for the first time since February. Salah with a goal and two assists, Mané with two goals, Shaqiri with his first goal for Liverpool.

But there was still a bit of 1-0 Huddersfield, 1-0 Brighton. There was still a bit of *rolls up newspaper* “NO BAD” in defense. There was marginal worry. There was too long between the first and second goals. There was an unnecessary consolation conceded at 2-0, giving us a fright for a few minutes and wrecking Liverpool’s 918-minute long Anfield league clean sheet.

But there were four goals and another win and the Premier League unbeaten streak rolls on and Liverpool are top of the table at least until Monday.

It looked like a rout from the first minute. Liverpool rolled over Cardiff like a rising tide. Come, clear, come again. A goal within ten minutes: Mané and Wijnaldum blocked after Cardiff failed to hoof away, then Salah first to the loose ball. A penalty shout – Salah wrestled by Morrison and hitting the turf – and van Dijk’s header off the post within the next five.

But then, a bit of rugged. A bit of raw. Slowly increasing frustration, memories of Huddersfield and Brighton lingering. No more shots on-target after the goal until the last second of added time. Cardiff still playing as if it was 0-0, seven men spread across the top of the penalty box, hoof, regroup. Liverpool close but no cigar to another breakthrough, a final pass cut out, a defender making the necessary tackle. Huddersfield. Brighton. 1-0, and no more, and not especially threatening more until Lallana’s 46th minute header was cleared off the line by Morrison.

And the second half started in similar fashion. The struggle is real. The frustration mounts. Cardiff have the ball in the net from a set play, but it's rightfully ruled offside in the build-up.

Then we're back, baby. Then Sadio Mané does Sadio Mané things, cutting inside from the left across the top of the box, surrounded by two Cardiff defenders and Moreno, somehow wriggling through all three to smash a left-footer past Etheridge. 66 minutes gone and it finally feels like we’re done here.

Except that we weren’t 11 minutes later. Liverpool fall asleep on a Cardiff throw-in. Moreno does a Moreno, charging out and completely missing a tackle leading to a two-on-one. Hoilett’s cross unfortunately deflects off van Dijk straight to Paterson for a tap-in. Now it's 2-1 and it's from Cardiff’s first shot of the match.

And now we’re nervous. Now we’re remembering previous matches where Liverpool’s tossed away a lead.

That was last season. Liverpool don’t remember those matches. Liverpool weren’t nervous. Now the counter comes off. Now the goals come.

A bit of calming possession then Fabinho into Salah with his back to goal, cut inside, flick through a Cardiff’s retreating line. Shaqiri dances a first defender to the floor and shifts around a second, then slides a left-footer around Etheridge. There was.a nice symmetry to Salah’s goal on Wednesday set up by Shaqiri, a similar assist this time played by the former for the latter.

3-1, less than seven minutes after conceding, with Cardiff barely leaving their own half between the goals.

Two minutes later, Fabinho tackles a Cardiff attacker, straight to Mané. To Salah. Run forward, through ball between two. Chipped keeper.

4-1.

So much for the nerves.

Only a little bit of drama. Only a bit of “is this enough?” Liverpool continue to improve its creativity while continuing in the 4-2-3-1 formation, although Lallana did not have the match that Shaqiri did on Wednesday. Fabinho and Wijnaldum were again an excellent pairing in midfield. Liverpool continue to improve its finishing, with four goals from seven shots on-target, with 19 shots in total, with four clear-cut chances coming against a side that kept ten men in their own half for almost the entirety. Salah scores again, Mané scores again.

Liverpool did so with players such as Shaqiri, Robertson, Gomez, Henderson, and Milner either left out or on the bench, with Moreno making his first league start, Lallana his second, and Lovren his third. Liverpool did so while again using its squad depth, even with a week before the next match, because that squad depth's going to be necessary later in the campaign.

Wednesday was the first step in reclaiming the form and receiving the results that we know Liverpool are capable of. This was very much a second.

Liverpool v Cardiff City 10.27.18

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
6-3 Liverpool (a) 03.22.14
3-1 Liverpool (h) 12.21.13
2-2 Liverpool aet (n; League Cup) 02.26.12
2-1 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.31.07

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-0 Red Star (h); 1-0 Huddersfield (a); 0-0 City (h)
Cardiff: 4-2 Fulham (h); 0-1 Tottenham (a); 1-2 Burnley (h)

Goal scorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané, Salah 4; Firmino, Sturridge 2; Matip, Milner, Wijnaldum 1
Cardiff: J Murphy 2; Bamba, Camarasa, Harris, Paterson, Reid, Ward 1

Referee: Stuart Attwell (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Fabinho Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

There’s a very good argument for not changing the XI from Wednesday.

I mean, y’all saw the match. Liverpool were good. Liverpool were creative. Liverpool scored four and could have had a few more and didn’t even allow a single shot on-target. And it was the first time in a while we could say those things about the attack.

So why change?

Maybe Liverpool shouldn’t. There will be a week before traveling to Arsenal, Liverpool without a midweek game. Cardiff will do some things similarly to Red Star. Liverpool were both more creative and even more secure through the middle with Wednesday’s formation and XI.

But Klopp rotates. Liverpool have a reasonably large squad – even with Keïta and Henderson still absent – and Liverpool want to use that squad. Klopp spent some of today’s press conference talking up Origi, Solanke, Clyne, and Matip – players who’ve barely if at all featured so far this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two names we don’t expect nor would I be surprised to see a return to the more familiar 4-3-3 formation – a formation that Fabinho will have to acclimatize to at some point.

So the above guess is a hedge between those factors. Even if it is desperately unfair to Shaqiri, who has been excellent in the last two matches. Heck, maybe I should just guess the same XI as last time.

Meanwhile, Cardiff may have just gotten their first win last week, but it’s been an understandably difficult road to this point. They’ve already hosted Arsenal and Manchester City and travelled to Chelsea and Tottenham, losing 2-3, 0-5, 1-4, and 0-1 in those matches. This’ll be their tenth games of the campaign and five of them will have been against last season’s top six. The last two recent losses prior to Fulham were a lot narrower, one-goal defeats to Burnley and Tottenham, only losing 1-0 at Spurs despite conceding in the eighth minute and having a player sent off in the 58th.

Without any real point of comparison, my best guess is the same XI that beat Fulham. Etheridge; Manga, Morrison, Bamba, Bennett; Camarasa, Gunnarsson, Arter, J Murphy; Reid; Paterson. Ralls will miss out in midfield, serving the second of a three-match ban for a red card at Tottenham, but Aron Gunnarsson’s finally fit, having made his first start in the last match. Camarasa can pay both centrally or out wide; Paterson has started up top lately but can also play deeper. Cardiff could start Hoilett out wide or Danny Ward (not that one) or Gary Madine up front if changes are to be made.

Neil Warnock has never won as manager at Anfield, losing 4-0 with Notts County, 2-0 and 4-0 with Sheffield United, and 1-0 with Queens Park Rangers, but he did win his last match against Liverpool during his short reign as Palace manager, 1-3 at Palace in November 2014.

And Warnock’s already talking down his side’s potential, saying that it’s “virtually impossible” to win at Anfield these days. He’s not necessarily wrong, even if that is gamesmanship to put even more pressure on Liverpool while taking it off his side. “Oh, poor us, we’ll never get anything” and then if they do get anything, break out the bus we’re having a parade.

Cardiff, unsurprisingly, are a very Championship squad playing a very Championship style. It’s what Neil Warnock knows, it’s what Neil Warnock’s always done. They’re strong in the air and at set plays. They absolutely love crosses. Josh Murphy, Reid, and Hoillett are quick on the counter. They’re rugged and deep defensively. They want next to nothing to do with the ball, joint-lowest in possession along with Brighton and with the worst passing accuracy in the league by far.

The Brighton comparison actually works reasonably well. Chris Hughton’s side was built in a similar manner, plays a similar style. And Brighton gave Liverpool problems two months ago, holding Liverpool reasonably at bay at Anfield despite an early goal from Salah and multiple Liverpool chances, even nearly finding an equalizer through Groß’ late clear-cut chance.

Liverpool nearly dropped two points in that Brighton match because of an inability to convert their own chances, something we’ve complained about multiple times this season. We certainly weren’t complaining about that on Wednesday – well, “complain” isn’t the right word; Liverpool scored four but another two or three wouldn’t have flattered.

More of that please. We know that Liverpool are capable of doing so.

Visualized: Liverpool 6-3 Cardiff City

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester United (a), Southampton (a), Swansea (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), West Brom (a), Everton (h), Aston Villa (h), Stoke (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Manchester City (a), Cardiff (h), Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


Once again, it's all about Liverpool's attack. Six more goals, for 82 on the season, by far the most they've scored in the Premier League era, and there are still eight games left to play. Right now, Liverpool are on pace to beat Chelsea's record total in 2009-10; they scored 103 that season, an average of 2.71 goals per game. Right now, Liverpool are averaging 2.73 goals per game.

Liverpool scored those six goals from just nine shots on target, just 19 shots in total. Because Liverpool have two of the best strikers in the world, and because Liverpool are taking the vast majority of their shots from prime shooting positions.

Breaking down a packed defense can be troublesome, as we've seen time and time again in previous seasons (and, at times, earlier this season). But despite playing against a five-man defense for the majority of the match, Liverpool still got into fabulous shooting positions. And took ruthless advantage.

That's been the case in almost every match during this six-game win streak.


DANGER ZONE.

16 of those 20 goals, including all six of yesterday's, came from either the six-yard box or the middle of the 18-yard box. 15 of those 16 were less than 12 yards from goal. But it's not as if this is a new habit; 40% of Liverpool's shots all season have come from those two areas (204 of 512), and it's led to 59 of Liverpool's 82 goals. When you get into those positions – either because Suarez and Sturridge are magicians (see: goals five and six on Saturday) or because you can pass the opposition to death (see: goals one and four on Saturday) – you're going to score fairly often.

And Luis Suarez scores more than fairly often. In the last two years, Suarez has six Premier League hat-tricks: his first came at Norwich in April 2012, two last season, and three this season. During that span, no other player has more than two: Robin van Persie, who notched them in September and April last season. 15 players have one. Luis Suarez has six. That's incomprehensible.

But for all that attacking prowess, there's something to complain about in each of Liverpool's goals conceded. The first two were especially troublesome as Cardiff had started the better side, exploiting the gaps Liverpool left in both midfield and defense.

Despite those gaps, the first goal was almost solely down to an individual error. Allen had stopped the move, tackling Fabio and recovering possession. But under only a modicum of pressure, he passed straight to Campbell rather than the open Flanagan, catching the left back on the back foot. Now, Flanagan, Allen, Agger, Skrtel, and Gerrard were out of position. And both Campbell then Mutch took advantage. Liverpool remain the most error-prone team in the division, with 34 errors leading to a shot; Arsenal are catching up, with 32, while Norwich and Fulham are tied for third with 25. Liverpool are 'lucky' that they've only been punished for nine of them. Tottenham have committed 22 errors, but 15 have led to goals, while Arsenal and Norwich's errors have led to ten goals each.

The second, however, was all about those gaps, as Liverpool Offside thoroughly covered yesterday. There's little to add to that, except that it's worth pointing out just how far Agger's out of position, marking the same man that Skrtel's marking, ignoring Campbell just as much as Gerrard did, and recovering too late to meaningfully hinder Campbell's effort.

Both the first and second goals exploited Liverpool's left flank. For all the deserved praise of Flanagan and Allen after the last two matches, that demonstrates they've still some way to go before being as consistent as Liverpool need. Yes, Flanagan's still quite young. Yes, Allen's not long back from an extended injury. Yes, both have been better more often than they've been worse. But I wouldn't be surprised to see either or both rotated against Sunderland on Wednesday.

And Cardiff's third goal demonstrated that even a bound-for-relegation side which had scored just 23 goals in the 29 previous matches can cut you open if you grant them the opportunity. 7% of Cardiff successful passes in the entire match came in the move leading up to their final goal. 16 completed passes, in the space of about one minute. Yes, Liverpool were comfortably ahead. Yes, they'd spent a fair amount of energy in the previous 87 minutes to be in that position. But allowing the opposition that much time and space, with only Sterling attempting to tackle a player in possession, remains annoying. And very much preventable. Even at that point in the match, goal difference matters.

It was yet another example of "Score three? Fine, we'll just score more than you." We've said over and over that can't keep happening, that Liverpool can't remain this potent, can't remain this resilient. But it has. Just make sure it keeps happening for eight more matches.

Liverpool 6-3 Cardiff City

Goals:
Mutch 9' 88'
Suarez 16' 60' 90+6'
Campbell 25'
Skrtel 41' 54'
Sturridge 75'

You can see the progression over the last few months ago. In January, a very similar match ended 2-2 against Aston Villa. In February, it ends 3-2 at Fulham, thanks to a fortuitous late penalty. In March, it ends with an absolutely mad 6-3 at Cardiff.

Liverpool's resiliency, Suarez and Sturridge's potency, and a helpful dose of Skrtel on set plays. In spite of recurring midfield messes and defensive mistakes.

Like against Villa and Fulham (and at Stoke, at West Brom, and v Swansea), Liverpool started off terribly, pushed back by errant passing and a wide open midfield. Liverpool's most impressive performances – against Arsenal and Everton, in the last two away matches – have seen a compact, disciplined midfield, keeping the shape before launching its attacks, leaving enough players behind to prevent opposition attacks but also pressing the ball both in the attacking third and the middle of the pitch.

But today, like those aforementioned five matches, Liverpool's midfielders left insanely large gaps. Unlike against Fulham, this was more due to Liverpool dropping too deep, seemingly afraid of Cardiff after allowing three chances in the first five minutes. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. But when you drop deep, you have to keep the shape; you can't just charge around the defensive third chasing the ball and hoping for the best.

The first goal started with a quick Cardiff transition, but Allen should have seen it off when dispossessing Fabio. However, the midfielder missed Flanagan with his pass, instead finding Frazier Campbell. The striker strolled to the flank and fed Mutch, who'd ambled away from an out-of-position Gerrard and with the captain unable to close down, smashing a perfectly placed shot from the top of the box that Mignolet had no chance at.

The second came with Mutch passing through Liverpool's static midfield, Campbell having pulled into space behind an unaware Gerrard, with both Agger and Skrtel marking Bellamy and Flanagan caught upfield marking Fabio. Either press the ball in midfield or drop deep enough to mark the striker. You have to do one of those two things. But no. And maybe both center-backs don't try to mark the same player. So Campbell ran at a recovering Agger, cut around him, and again placed a shot into the far corner. Both goals were well-taken, but both came far too easily.

Sandwiched between Cardiff's goals was Suarez's first, set up by Henderson's excellent ball to an overlapping Johnson, and Johnson's low centered cross for a Suarez tap-in. A first equalizer should have been enough, but how would Liverpool respond to needing a second?

Fairly well, thank you. "Even when we're not good, we're still going to score more than you." And so they did. Two set play goals; a pass-pass-pass-pass oops-we've-broken-your-defense fourth, and then two blitzkrieg counters. And a regrettable, but ultimately meaningless, consolation conceded.

Liverpool's second, Skrtel's first, wasn't wholly a set play goal, but it might as well go down as one. Cardiff cleared Coutinho's corner, but cleared it straight to the Brazilian, who immediately crossed back into the box. Skrtel's run was immaculate, intuitively breaking between three defenders to reach the ball first, just outside the six-yard box.

The second was a more orthodox set play goal, albeit with a fair amount of controversy, with both Mutch and Theophile-Caterine off the pitch, having been treated for injuries in the build-up. And Liverpool took advantage, with Skrtel beating his marker to Coutinho's corner and directing the header well past Marshall.

That was that. Liverpool wouldn't give Cardiff a chance to get a third until the result was well out of sight. Six minutes after taking the lead, Liverpool had a fourth: patient build-up, Henderson and Johnson again combining just before the goal, Johnson's low cross deflected but fortunately falling to Sturridge, whose first-touch back-heel into space was indescribably brilliant, somehow telepathically knowing that Suarez would find it. Sometimes, there are just no words to do those two justice.

And they reversed roles 15 minutes later, as Suarez's tasmanian devil work rate forced Caulker into misplaying Johnson's ball over the top, charging into the box before centering between two defenders to meet Sturridge in stride, yet another Liverpool goal scored from six yards out.

The last 15 minutes seemed a formality, with Liverpool threatening on a couple of quick attacks but somehow contriving to foul them up, until Cardiff found a consolation. The build-up should embarrass Liverpool's defense: Theophile-Caterine allowed to cross to an open Jones, who headed across to an open Mutch. But Liverpool responded just before full-time, similar to their last goal, with Suarez terrorizing Cala into misplaying a hopeful long ball, then tearing at Marshall, villainously teasing him into committing (and ignoring Sterling) before poking home.

These games aren't doing my heart any good. Liverpool may be mistake-prone in midfield and defense, but Liverpool remain very good in attack, and fairly decent on set plays as well. It's the 17th time (in 30 matches) where Liverpool have scored at least three, the 10th time they've scored at least four, and the 5th time they've scored at least five. That's unfathomable.

More importantly, Liverpool believe. Liverpool know they're capable of something truly special. And even when Liverpool disappoint, when Liverpool start badly, when Liverpool suffer setbacks, Liverpool somehow respond.

Liverpool at Cardiff 03.22.14

11am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-1 Liverpool (h) 12.21.13
2-2 [3-2 on penalties] Liverpool (n; League Cup) 02.26.12
2-1 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.31.07
0-4 Cardiff (h) 12.19.59

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 United (a); 3-0 Southampton (a); 4-3 Swansea (h)
Cardiff: 1-2 Everton (a); 3-1 Fulham (h); 0-1 Tottenham (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 24; Sturridge 18; Gerrard 10; Sterling 7; Skrtel 4; Coutinho, Henderson 3; Agger, Flanagan, Moses, Sakho 1
Cardiff: Campbell 5; Caulker, Mutch 4; Whittingham 2; Bellamy, Kim, Cala, Gunnarsson, Jones, Noone, Odemwingie 1

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Liverpool have lost all three Premier League matches that Neil Swarbrick has refereed.

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Agger Flanagan
Gerrard
Henderson Allen
Coutinho
Sturridge Suarez

Will Rodgers stick with the 4-4-2 diamond after consecutive 3-0 away victories, or revert to a 4-3-3 formation?

If it's the diamond – which seems slightly more likely, solely because Rodgers is often hesitant to change a winning formula – then the only lineup question seems Sterling or Coutinho. That Liverpool will most likely monopolize the ball, pinning Cardiff deep and needing to cut through a packed defense, makes me think Coutinho is more likely, with Sterling's pace available off the bench if needed when legs begin to tired. More the thought process against Southampton rather than the thought process against Manchester United.

If it's 4-3-3, then the question is over the third midfielder. The front three would be some blend of Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling. Henderson and Gerrard appear certain starters regardless of formation. So the choice would be Coutinho or Allen, and as in the 4-4-2 diamond, I expect Coutinho would get the nod for his throughballs and general creativity. Although it is worth noting that's the exact front six which struggled so mightily at West Brom, the last time Liverpool failed to win a league match. And also the same front six which scored five against Arsenal. So, yeah.

I still don't expect either Lucas or Sakho to come back into the side just yet. Not with the midfield and defense playing the way that they have. Liverpool have three games in the next 10 days. We'll most likely see both of them start at least one of those matches, but I doubt it'll be tomorrow with the way the team's worked of late. No one changes a defense that's kept successive clean sheets away from home unless they have to.

According to most models, Cardiff have an 80-90% chance of being relegated, even though they're just three points and goal difference from safety. They've won only one of their last seven matches, at home against 20th-placed Fulham two weeks ago. Which, of course – given my propensity for pessimism – makes me think this is more of a Hull City/West Brom-style trap game than a nailed-on hammering.

Cardiff have used five at the back in two of the last three matches: at Tottenham and Everton, although Solskjaer switched to the more familiar 4-1-4-1 after 20 or so minutes against Everton. And it's understandable why. Try like hell to prevent an opposition goal, hope to nick one or two against better opposition on either a counter-attack or set play. More defenders maybe, hopefully, mean better defending, etc etc. Cardiff have allowed more shots on target than any other side this season, a large reason why they're currently in the relegation zone, despite the frequent heroics of David Marshall.

If it's 4-1-4-1, the XI will most likely be Marshall; Theophile-Caterine, Caulker, Cala, John; Medel; Noone, Kim, Whittingham, Mutch; Campbell. If it's five at the back, Fabio probably comes in for Noone, with Theophile-Caterine at center-back and Mutch playing centrally off Campbell. Ben Turner will be subject to a late fitness test, and could replace Juan Cala in the 4-1-4-1 or Theophile-Caterine in the 5-3-2 if available.

Marshall has been Cardiff's best player; without their keeper, Cardiff would have even fewer points. No keeper has made more saves this season, but, again, no keeper has faced more shots on target either. Craig Noone always gets a bit of press prior to Liverpool matches, born on Merseyside, and you may have heard that he once worked on Gerrard's roof. You'll probably hear it six or seven more times tomorrow. And then there's Craig Bellamy. If he plays, he'll provoke the usual ex-Liverpool player fear, but he's more likely to appear off the bench.

Thanks to a scheduling quirk, this will be Liverpool's third successive away match. They've ostensibly done the hard part by beating Southampton and United, but the cliche holds true. There are no easy matches, not at this stage of the season. You can point to Liverpool's away failings earlier in the campaign, or the recent Chelsea v Aston Villa example. Thankfully, Liverpool – at least from their public quotes, not to mention their form since the New Year – seem well aware of just how crucial every game is. Nine more cup finals…

Visualized: Liverpool 3-1 Cardiff

Previous Match Infographics: Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


Fairly standard fare. Liverpool dominated possession, tempo, and tenor, Liverpool made an early breakthrough thanks to Suarez's brilliance, Liverpool cruised. Fairly standard fare will suffice just fine at this point of the season.

Cardiff attempted and completed the fewest passes, with the lowest accuracy, of any Liverpool opponent so far this season. It's the second lowest passing total by a Liverpool opponent since Rodgers became manager, with Villa attempting just 211 passes, completing 146, in their 3-1 win at Anfield a year ago. That was also the only match where Liverpool had more possession in a single half than they did in the first half on Saturday, with 75.8% possession in the second half against Villa.

Wait. You're right. I shouldn't have mentioned that monstrosity of a match. I'm sorry.

Jordan Henderson tallied his fourth and fifth assists of the season, setting up both of Suarez's goals. Henderson has assisted at least one of Suarez's goals in three consecutive matches: Liverpool fourth against West Ham, the first goal at Tottenham, and the two goals on Saturday.

All 5 of Henderson's assists in 2013/14 have been for Suárez. No player has set up another for as many goals in the PL this season #LFC

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) December 22, 2013

Liverpool's most frequent assist-scorer combination last season was Jose Enrique setting up Suarez. It happened four times. Henderson-to-Suarez has already surpassed that, in just 12 games.

It's been excellent to see the two increasingly on the same wavelength in the opposition half with Henderson playing a more influential, more attacking role in Gerrard's absence.



As hoped, the midfield performed almost as effectively as it did against Tottenham, with the difference most due to Cardiff's vastly improved organization. Henderson, Allen, and Lucas all know their roles, and mesh together excellently.



That Henderson's added a finishing touch – whether in his goal against Tottenham or the assists in both matches – has been the most important feature, or at least the feature that most worried me prior to these two matches, but all three midfielders continue to play the same harmonious tune.

Meanwhile, five of Cardiff's eight chances created came from set plays. It's good that Liverpool limited the opposition to just eight chances. It's quite good that they were limited to just three from open play. But it's bad that Cardiff created five chances from 10 set plays in Liverpool's defensive half, creating chances on three of the five corners and two of the five free kicks.

Six of the 19 goals that Liverpool have conceded so far this campaign have come from set plays. That's 31.6%. That's terrible. And that doesn't include goals by Everton and Hull which came after Liverpool failed to clear a free kick.

Saturday's consolation was especially abhorrent.



Where's Skrtel going? Why is Sakho left alone against two players at the back post? Liverpool conceded because of two mistakes: Skrtel broke the offside trap, someone forgot who he was marking. I assume the marking broke down because Kelly had just come on, changing the defensive assignments, but that's little excuse (if it's even correct). Regardless, these should be easily remedied mistakes. But we're still seeing far too many mistakes when defending set plays, and better sides will undoubtedly punish Liverpool for it.

Incidentally, after a 4-2 win over Fulham on Saturday where they scored from a corner and direct free kick, Manchester City now have 11 goals from set plays this season. Which is tied for the most in the league with Liverpool.

Liverpool 3-1 Cardiff

Goals:
Suarez 25' 45'
Sterling 42'
Mutch 58'

Another three points for Liverpool, a couple more records for Luis Suarez. It certainly wasn't all sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows, especially in the second half, but it was enough. And over the festive period, considering Liverpool's schedule over the festive period, enough is enough.

It took Liverpool a few minutes to get going, with Cardiff both pressing effectively and getting numbers behind the ball. And the away side were the first to threaten the opposition's goal, Noone dangerous on the counter, one-on-one with Sakho, but Mignolet denied his fierce left-footed shot. Thankfully, Suarez soon posted his "GENIUS AT WORK" sign atop Cardiff's penalty box, scoring twice and setting up one in a 20-minute span.

From the 18th minute until halftime, responding to Cardiff's counter-attacking chance, Liverpool were unbelievable. Three goals doesn't do that spell justice; Liverpool really were as good as they were against Tottenham over that period. And, once again, Suarez and Henderson were at the epicenter, linking up for all three goals. The first saw delightful interplay between Suarez, Henderson, and Allen: the two midfielders both getting forward, Allen's pass to Henderson at the top of Cardiff's penalty area, Henderson's delightful cross to Suarez posted just inside the box, volleyed into the ground and unsaveable.

Coutinho hit the foot of the post following Suarez's short corner, Skrtel skied a free header from a free kick, Flanagan was denied a goal in a second successive match by a goal-line clearance, two Liverpool throughballs in 30 seconds put Sterling and Johnson one-on-one with the keeper, but the former saw his shot saved, the latter's heavy touch allowed Marshall to come out and smother.

And with all those chances squandered and halftime imminent, you couldn't help but wonder how Liverpool would be punished after the interval. Ha. Five minutes left. Still time for two more goals. The first was a picture book blitzkrieg break: Henderson's toe poked long ball releasing Suarez, unselfishly squared for an apparently-just-onside-but-maybe-a-step-offside Sterling. Three minutes later, Suarez and Flanagan combined to charge down the left, Henderson's pressing ensured Liverpool kept possession despite Flanagan's off-target pass, and the midfielder's oh-lord-that's-clever back heel gave Suarez the bit of space to allow a science-defying curler from 20 yards. Two Henderson back heels leading to Liverpool goals in two consecutive games. That's so delicious it has to be fattening.

Also, Luis Suarez. 12 games, 19 goals, 5 assists. Wow. Just wow.

PL RECORD: Luis SUAREZ becomes the first player to score at least TWO goals in FOUR PL matches in a row. LIV 3-0 CAR (HT) #lfc

— Infostrada Sports (@InfostradaLive) December 21, 2013

Luis Suarez becomes the first player to score 10 Premier League goals in a calendar month - and he's still got 2 more games after this one!

— Eurosport.com EN (@EurosportCom_EN) December 21, 2013

I have no words that'll suffice. None.

So, three-nil, game over. Much like the match at Palace, Liverpool seemed satisfied when hitting halftime up three. Which is somewhat understandable with City and Chelsea on the horizon, but still somewhat annoying, especially when Liverpool concede on a set play and Skrtel could have been called for two penalties.

Today's set play concession might have been a new low. To be fair, Liverpool had just made its first substitution, replacing Flanagan with Kelly and Johnson going to left-back, so defensive assignments may have gotten mucked up. But that's little excuse for absolutely no one marking Jordan Mutch, wide open at the back post, heading Whittingham's free kick past a helpless Mignolet. And Cardiff kept Liverpool on the back foot for the next 15 minutes, kept winning and threatening from free kicks and corners.

Mackay's halftime talk clearly raised Cardiff's game, Mackay's substitutions – Campbell and Kim for Odemwingie and Medel – made Cardiff more threatening. That he'll inevitably be fired before Cardiff's next match boggles the mind. But Liverpool did enough to prevent a second which would really get nerves jangling. And Liverpool finally got back on track by the 75th minute, denied a fourth when Suarez hit the post, fired wide, and had an effort saved by Marshall. No third hat-trick of the season for you. You'll have to settle for the 19 goals and five assists in 12 games, registering a goal or assist once every 45 minutes in the league this season. Which is more goals than 11 Premiership sides have scored in total.

As against Tottenham, Liverpool's midfield continued to impress with these players in this shape. And Henderson continued to be the standout, responsible for two assists in an advanced role, even though he's struggled in an advanced role against deep defenses in the past. Allen is a perfect foil, excellent at keeping possession and moving intelligently, smart with both passing and positioning. Sterling and Flanagan also stood out – surprise, surprise, young players get better and better with more, consistent match time. Skrtel frightened at times, Johnson remains underwhelming (to say the absolute least), Coutinho probably needs to stop shooting from distance, and Lucas has had better games, but Liverpool were still more than deserving of the win.

And Suarez remains first among equals. When he's in this form, few sides will stop Liverpool from running riot. Enjoy your new contract, Luis. It's worth every last cent.

Liverpool v Cardiff 12.21.13

7:45am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-2 [3-2 on penalties] Liverpool (n; League Cup) 02.26.12
2-1 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.31.07
0-4 Cardiff (h) 12.19.59
2-3 Cardiff (a) 08.22.59

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-0 Tottenham (a); 4-1 West Ham (h); 5-1 Norwich (h)
Cardiff: 1-0 West Brom (h); 0-2 Palace (a); 0-0 Stoke (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 17; Sturridge 9; Gerrard 3; Sterling 2; Coutinho, Flanagan, Henderson, Moses, Sakho, Skrtel 1
Cardiff: Campbell 3; Caulker, Mutch, Whittingham 2; Kim, Gunnarsson, Odemwingie 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Flanagan
Lucas
Henderson Allen
Sterling Suarez Coutinho

I'd be very surprised if Liverpool's XI looked any different than last Sunday's.

It worked to near-perfection, there have been six days since Liverpool's last match, and there will be four more before the Boxing Day trip to City. Gerrard, Sturridge, and Enrique are all still out injured, and will be for a few more weeks.

However, Liverpool will be facing a side completely different from Tottenham. There will be no high back line, no wide open spaces behind a broken offside trap. Caulker and Turner will sit far deeper, camped just outside their penalty box, supported by Medel nipping at Liverpool ankles across the length and breadth of Cardiff's half. Johnson will need to have a much more dynamic game getting forward from fullback, but the biggest test would be of Henderson. He's struggled in an attacking midfield role against deep defenses, and his runs almost certainly won't be as effective as they were on Sunday.

But Liverpool's performance against Tottenham merits another go-around – Rodgers often subscribes to the 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' school of management – and will help prove whether it's a formation for the future or a one-off fluke.

Also, I will be incredibly disappointed in Suarez doesn't mark his new contract with at least one goal. Fair warning.

It seems a handy time to play Cardiff at Anfield, with the traveling side amidst self-inflicted turmoil. Malky Mackay is still the manager, for now, supposedly given an ultimatum by the owner to resign or be fired, but has been allowed to take charge of tomorrow's game. So either Cardiff implodes, or the players respond with a magnificent performance to support their embattled manager. Crap. It's probably going to be the latter, isn't it? Super. Maybe it's not a handy time to play Cardiff.

The "Dragons'" (read: Bluebirds') last two matches seem a decent guide as to how Cardiff will play tomorrow. Away to Palace, Cardiff lined up in a more defensive 4-4-1-1, packing the midfield with Medel, Kim, Whittingham, Cowie, and Mutch, with Campbell up front on his own. And Cardiff lost 0-2, conceding an early goal then unable to get back into the game.

In contrast, Mackey chose one of his most-attacking XIs in the next match against West Brom at home, and reaped a 1-0 win as a reward, a result which cost Steve Clarke his job. More a 4-1-3-2 formation, with Noone, Mutch, and Whittingham ahead of Medel, and both Campbell and Odemwingie up front.

Despite the poor result, I suspect Cardiff's XI will look more like the one which lost at Palace. More defensive, more compact, with the hopes of preventing the early goal which ruined the strategy at Palace. Especially since Liverpool thrives when Liverpool scores early. Which would make the XI something like: Marshall; Theophile-Catherine, Caulker, Turner, John; Cowie, Medel, Whittingham, Kim; Mutch; Campbell. Craig Bellamy is Cardiff's only injury doubt, perpetually struggling with the knee problems that have plagued him over the last few seasons, but knowing Craig, he'll probably do all he can to at least make the bench.

Only Crystal Palace have scored fewer goals than Cardiff this season, 11 to Cardiff's 12 (Sunderland have also scored 12). But five of Cardiff's 12 goals – 41.7% – have come from set plays, tied for the highest proportion in the league along with Sunderland. Liverpool have scored the most set play goals this season, but they only account for 28.2% of all goals. Whittingham is excellent on dead ball situations, either taking direct free kicks or crossing into the box. And Liverpool remain vulnerable on set plays, no matter who plays in defense. Five of the 18 that Liverpool have conceded (27.8%) have come from set plays, and that doesn't include goals by Everton and Hull which came after Liverpool failed to clear a free kick.

I'll be honest. Even though Liverpool will be at Anfield, I can't get the Hull performance out of my head. The home side cannot cannot cannot be complacent. Liverpool can't turn up expecting to win, can't already be thinking about Christmas dinner and the next two matches at City and Chelsea. The last time Liverpool underestimated Cardiff was the last time Liverpool faced Cardiff, needing extra-time and penalties to lift Liverpool's first trophy in six seasons.

It should go without saying, but these matches are just as important as the next two. Three points are three points are three points. Hopefully, the side will have learned something from the Hull debacle.

Liverpool 2-2 Cardiff City aet

Liverpool win 3-2 on penalties

Goals:
Mason 19'
Skrtel 60'
Kuyt 108'
Turner 118'

Penalties:
Liverpool: Gerrard, Adam, Kuyt, Downing, Johnson
Cardiff: Miller, Cowie, Gestede, Whittingham, A Gerrard

So, yeah, cup finals. Wow. Nothing ever comes easy.

Only this side could beat league leaders Manchester City over two legs in the semi-finals – as well as two tough opponents away from home in the two previous rounds – and then barely beat Cardiff on penalties in this final. This was a breathless, heart-stopping, soul-crushing, exhilarating microcosm of the season so far. A microcosm that ended in the happiest way possible, with jubilant hands on silverware. Which, hopefully, is an excellent omen.

Liverpool took 39 shots compared to Cardiff's 11. Liverpool hit the bar in the second minute, and had a shot somehow cleared off the line in the second minute of extra time. Liverpool poked, prodded, created chances, and fumbled to break through. The first half was pure frustration, as we've seen time and time and time and time again, wasting openings both before and after Cardiff took lead against the run of play.

It was nearly the same XI which beat Brighton, with Agger replacing Carragher, but Liverpool shifted to a 4-4-2 which matched Cardiff's. Despite Liverpool chances, either created by Downing or shots from distance, Cardiff coped fair easily with men behind the ball and another poor performance from Henderson when on the right. Cardiff's goal was well worked but regrettable, as Liverpool gave the opposition space to pass before McNaughton set up Miller who set up Mason, threading a through-ball behind the defense when Agger stepped forward in an ill-concieved attempt to close down.

Knocked back once again, Liverpool's frustration was all too tangible as Cardiff defended diligently, comfortable piling men in their final third with the lead, daring Liverpool to break them down. Which they unsurprisingly struggled to do. Liverpool brought Bellamy on for the disappointing Henderson in the 57th and were level three minutes later, but it was due to a set play rather than a change in style; Suarez hit the bar when re-directing Carroll's flick of Downing's corner, with Skrtel well-placed to cram in the rebound.

Instead of using the equalizer as a platform, pushing past tiring lower-league opponents, Cardiff should have won the game in normal time. As usual, Liverpool had chances – Skrtel, Downing, and Adam had shots saved, Gerrard sailed one well over, Suarez couldn't control when released by an out-of-character defensive mistake – but Turner headed wide from point-blank range in 83rd before Miller blasted over from eight yards out with both time and space.

There only looked to be one winner in extra time; Liverpool had Suarez's header cleared off the line early on before Carroll, Bellamy, and Johnson put efforts narrowly wide. Then, three minutes into the second 15, Kuyt incomprehensibly gave Liverpool the lead. Bursting between two defenders, his initial attempt was a better cross than shot, but a deflection off a defender gave the Dutchman a second chance. He improbably seized it with both hands, hammering an unstoppable nail past Heaton despite losing his footing. He probably couldn't replicate it on a bet and it might well be the best goal he's scored for the club. If anyone deserved it. Big. Game. Player.

But again, Cardiff weren't beaten. And, almost unforgivably, Liverpool seemed to think the game was won with 12 minutes to play and an entire season-long catalog of evidence that things that can go wrong usually will. This Cardiff goal, with two minutes left, was absolutely deserved. Liverpool nearly conceded seconds earlier, cleared off the line by goal-scorer Kuyt. But he couldn't keep out the subsequent set play, scrambled in by Turner from two yards out.

Which led to the watching-through-hands-over-eyes lottery. And which started in the worst possible manner when Heaton made the best penalty save I've ever seen, somehow keeping out Gerrard's fiercely-taken spot kick. Miller missed Cardiff's first, but then Adam skied his effort out of the stadium. Cowie and Kuyt struck smartly before Gestede also hit the post, leaving it tied 1-1 after three kicks. Downing and Johnson both notched well-taken penalties despite the handicap of each's nationality, bracketing Wittingham's stone-cold finish. Then, substitute Anthony Gerrard – Cousin of Steven – walked to the spot. And horribly pushed a tame effort wide, probably saved by Reina even if on target. Cue wild celebrations coupled with agonizing heartbreak.

It goes without saying the result's infinitely harsh on Cardiff, especially the stomach punch that is a penalty loss. On the whole, they were tactically better than Liverpool and battled harder than Liverpool. Don't get me wrong, Liverpool battled as well, steadily working their way to the equalizer before taking an extra-time lead, but conceding with basically seconds to play is an absolute sin.

Liverpool's talent gap and cruel fortune won on the day. Even without Gerrard, Adam, Suarez, or Carroll at their best, other players stepped up when needed. Downing had his best game for Liverpool, Skrtel scored the crucial equalizer while maintaining his baby-killing je ne sais quoi in defense, Kuyt and Bellamy had starring roles off the bench, and Johnson and Enrique overlapped threateningly. And you can't fault the effort of anyone involved, except, of course, in the aftermath of what looked to be Liverpool's winner.

As feared, this was an awful lot like the league cup final against Birmingham 11 years ago. But while Liverpool made harder work of it than either expected or needed, Liverpool still won. Now, the club need to replicate that season's accomplishment by using this win to push on in the FA Cup and the chase for fourth.

Liverpool v Cardiff City 02.26.12

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h; Carling Cup) 10.31.07
0-4 Cardiff (h) 12.19.59
2-3 Cardiff (a) 08.22.59
0-3 Cardiff (a) 02.14.59

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-2 City (h); 1-0 City (a); 2-1 Chelsea (a); 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-1 Brighton (a); 3-1 Exeter (a)
Cardiff: 1-0 Palace aet [3-1 pens] (h); 0-1 Palace (a); 2-0 Blackburn (h); 1-0 Burnley (a); 2-2 Leicester aet [7-6 pens] (h); 5-3 Huddersfield aet (h); 3-1 Oxford aet (a)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 6-1 Brighton (h); 1-2 United (a); 0-0 Spurs (h)
Cardiff: 0-3 Ipswich (a); 3-1 Peterborough (h); 1-2 Leicester (a)

Goalscorers (Carling Cup):
Liverpool: Suarez 3; Bellamy, Gerrard, Maxi 2; Carroll, Kelly, Kuyt 1
Cardiff: Cowie 3; Conway 2, Gerrard, Gestede, Gyepes, Jarvis, Mason, Miller, Parkin, Whittingham 1

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Gerrard Adam
Henderson
Suarez Carroll Bellamy

Liverpool are in the League Cup Final. It's been six years since the club won a trophy, and they're heavily-favored against Championship opposition. I'll tell you how it plays out. Liverpool score early, are unable to get the crucial second, concede a rash injury time penalty equalizer, nearly concede a second penalty in extra time, and finally win after a shootout, thanks to the goalkeeper stopping two spot-kicks.

How do I know this? It already happened. That was the 2001 League Cup final against Birmingham. For those who enjoy symmetry, that final was played in Cardiff. Jamie Carragher, of all players, scored the winning spot kick; unsurprisingly, he and Gerrard are the only two left from that squad. Liverpool later went on to lift the FA and UEFA Cups for an unlikely treble.

There's also the 2005/06 FA Cup final, that most-recent Liverpool trophy, where the club were heavily favored to beat newly-promoted West Ham but had to stage a remarkable Gerrard-led comeback to make it to the penalty lottery. And I doubt I need to remind of last season's Carling Cup final, where everyone assumed Arsenal would break their trophy drought with a romp (including Arsenal), only to see Birmingham snatch an unbelievable winner at the death thanks to an all-time comedic clusterfuck.

Cup finals rarely play out the expected scripts. Thankfully, it's safe to assume Dalglish is well-aware of their foibles, as are Gerrard, Carra, and other senior players. I highly doubt the manager will let complacency seep in. This trophy hasn't been won just by reaching Wembley for the first time since blah blah blah. At the same time, keeping players relaxed with be just as important; every single man in red knows that Liverpool haven't won a trophy since blah blah blah, while Cardiff have next to no pressure or expectations.

Sticking with the 4-2-1-3 formation we saw against Brighton, where Liverpool's attack looked ever so potent, seems the likely plan. At most, Agger should replace Carragher, while Bellamy will probably come in for Downing; both players should be fit after missing last Sunday's match with unspecified knocks.

If Liverpool stick with the 4-2-1-3, Spearing for Henderson seems the only possible change in midfield. However, the base of Gerrard-Adam defended adequately against Brighton, Spearing usually plays deeper than Gerrard or Adam (making the formation more a 4-1-2-3/4-1-4-1, which could leave Liverpool exposed to Cardiff's multiple midfield runners), and Gerrard's rarely played as an out-and-out attacking midfielder under Dalglish.

The one argument against starting Bellamy in place of Downing is that having Suarez, Carroll, and Bellamy all on the pitch leaves little room for dynamic changes if, Fowler forbid, things aren't going to plan. God loves a trier, but Kuyt and Downing aren't impact subs. No matter the opposition, the front three combined promisingly a week ago. But Bellamy's been one of Liverpool's most-consistent scorers and scoring against another former club, this his hometown team, seems almost written in the stars.

Cardiff currently sit fifth in the Championship, smack in the middle of the playoff chase and just seven points from first. But since beating Palace on penalties a month ago, Cardiff have won just once: 3-1 over 18th-placed Peterborough on Valentine's Day, losing three and drawing one in the others.

Cardiff usually play a 4-1-4-1 or 4-4-2 formation; this is an outstanding preview from Cardiff's point of view. Midfielder Peter Whittingham, with nine goals and 11 assists, is on the three-man shortlist for Championship player of the season. Kenny Miller, joint top-scorer with Whittingham, is a wily Scot, while Cowie and Conway are dangerous from the flanks. Miller, Cowie, and Conway, along with midfield axis Aron Gunnarson and defenders Taylor and Turner, all joined Cardiff last summer. And, as you're probably aware, Steven Gerrard's cousin Anthony could start in central defense.

The Bluebirds beat just one Premiership opponent on their path to the final, a 2-0 home win over Blackburn in the quarterfinals. Four of their six cup matches required extra time, two – including the semi-final – went to penalties. Cardiff know what it's like to win a cagey, close cup match, will be able to play without pressure as the underdogs, and will be diligent, prepared, and difficult to break down. And, like we've said all season, Liverpool will have to capitalize, something they've not done nearly enough. In this case, there's a very tangible reward just over the horizon.

Liverpool 2-1 Cardiff City

Itandje
Arbeloa Carragher Hobbs Aurelio
El Zhar Gerrard Lucas Leto
Crouch Babel

Goals:
El Zhar 48’
Purse 65’
Gerrard 66’

I hate not seeing a Liverpool game.

Having only seen about a minute’s worth of highlights, I’m absolutely unqualified to say much more about the match other than I’m surprised both Carra and Gerrard started (although Stevie played because Sissoko was still sick), and there were a few things that pleased: Babel got a chance to play as a striker, Hobbs got his first team debut, Leto and Lucas got more first team action, El Zhar scored a peach of a goal (as did Gerrard, his 3rd in 3 games), and Liverpool’s in the draw for the last 8.

As I don’t have much else to say, I’m going to put up a bunch of different links to match reports, etc as I did for some games last season to compensate. I’d add the goals, but I’m sure the links would be gone within hours, and I’m sure the lot of you are resourceful enough to find them on your own.

If I do get a chance to see the full game, I’ll add more.

• Official site: Match Review
• Official site: Rafa reaction
• Official site: Rafa on Gerrard
• Official site: El Zhar reaction
• Liverpool Echo write-up
• BBC write-up
• Guardian write-up
• The Times write-up
• Daily Telegraph write-up
• The Independent write-up
• Sky Sports match review
• RAWK post-match thread

Liverpool v Cardiff City 10.31.07

4pm EST, not available on TV in the US

Liverpool hasn’t faced Cardiff City since 1959, in the old Second Division.

Previous Carling Cup matches:
Liverpool: 4-2 Reading (a)
Cardiff: 4-2 West Brom (a); 1-0 Leyton Orient (h); 1-0 aet Brighton (h)

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Arsenal (h); 1-2 Besiktas (a); 2-1 Everton (a)
Cardiff: 1-1 Scunthorpe (h); 2-3 Wolverhampton (h); 0-1 Southampton (a)

Goalscorers (Carling Cup):
Liverpool: Torres 3; Benayoun 1
Cardiff: Fowler 2; Hasselbaink, Johnson, Sinclair, Wittingham 1

Referee: Peter Walton

Guess at a squad:
Itandje
Arbeloa Carragher Hobbs Aurelio
Benayoun Lucas Sissoko Leto
Crouch Babel

The big story surrounding the game is Robbie Fowler's return to Anfield, but focus will also be on the strength of Liverpool's squad and who plays with the injuries currently facing the club. The "second team" must play well in case they're needed during the next month, when Liverpool's squad will be stretched thin.

I'm expecting mostly reserves tomorrow, but remember the strength of the team against Reading. However, there's more of a problem with injuries, the first-team defense all looks like they could use a rest (Carragher as well, but Liverpool will need his experience tomorrow, especially if Gerrard doesn't play), and no slight to Cardiff City, but Reading's a Premiership team and the game was at their ground.

It's probably too soon for the likes of Putterill, Spearing, and other graduates of the Academy. In addition, while I'd love to see Insua start at left back (even though we've rarely seen him this season, I'm still expecting big things), Aurelio is getting close to fitness and in need of playing time.

With Alonso suffering another injury to his metatarsal (as of writing this, I still haven't seen any word on the scan) it seems like Lucas and Sissoko have to start in the middle. I realize Gerrard is very rarely left out, but both Lucas and Sissoko will be called upon over the next month, and I'd like to see them get first-team action and play together as a pairing. And given the weakened state of Liverpool's squad and the amount of important games to come, I'll be very surprised if Gerrard features at all, either in the center or on the right.

I've said it for three straight previews now, but this has to be a game for Crouch with the injury to Torres and the amount of action that Kuyt and Voronin have seen lately. While he's been the 4th striker all season long, I'm still surprised at his lack of opportunities. And while he didn't get that much-needed goal, I was encouraged by his performance on Sunday.

And I'd like to see Babel partner Crouchy up top. Babel's seemingly seen less action as the season's gone on, mainly because he hasn't completely settled on the wing, but when he's played he's looked more threatening coming through the center, and playing as a striker (and playing well) could do wonders for his confidence.

Like against both Toulouse and Reading, I imagine Leto will receive another first-team start, but I'm also wondering if Kewell is fit enough for a run out. We've been hearing more about Kewell of late, and he played 45 minutes for the reserves on Thursday. I still think Leto will start, with Kewell off the bench around the hour mark, but I also wouldn't be surprised or upset if Kewell started on the right, as we know he can play on both flanks.

Despite the amount of money spent over the summer, bringing in Fowler, Trevor Sinclair, and Stephen McPhail, among others, Cardiff's not had the best results so far this season. Currently, they're lingering above the relegation places in 17th, and have won once in their last six games. Concerns over the club's finances still loom large as well. In other squad news, on-loan keeper Kasper Schmeichel won't start because Manchester City doesn't want him cup-tied.

The Carling Cup is still a distant fourth on Liverpool's list of priorities. The strength of the squad that turned out against Reading led me to believe that Liverpool would do their utmost to compete in all four tournaments, but with injuries and the troubles in the Champions League, I wonder if that strategy has changed at all.

If I’m being honest, I wouldn't be devastated if Liverpool were to go out against Cardiff. Naturally, I want Liverpool to win every game they compete in, but the Carling Cup could end up a distraction.

The most important thing for the team tomorrow is to get a good performance that builds on the confidence gained from a respectable draw against Arsenal, and for the reserves and youth players to get a decent run in the first team to show what they're capable of if Liverpool needs them.