Fifth Annual League Table Guessing Game

Last season's 'prediction' wasn't a complete failure – at least in the top seven. I had Chelsea pipping United to the title (which looked possible until the Blues bought that misfiring traitorous foreigner), City and Arsenal in third and fourth, and Liverpool ahead of Tottenham – insane in retrospect, but still would have happened had Liverpool won its final two matches. All in all, three positions spot on (the aforementioned City and Arsenal, as well as Everton in seventh), and one of the three relegated sides right (Blackpool, a tremendously difficult guess). Which is good enough to continue this yearly charade.

1) Manchester United
2) Manchester City
3) Chelsea
4) Liverpool
5) Arsenal
6) Tottenham
7) Sunderland
8) Everton
9) Fulham
10) Stoke
11) Aston Villa
12) West Brom
13) Bolton
14) Wolves
15) QPR
16) Blackburn
17) Norwich
18) Newcastle
19) Wigan
20) Swansea

And it's basically the same prediction everyone else is making. Money talks. This is an arms race, and the guy with the biggest gun is probably going to walk away with the gong. The long-standing Big Four narrative is dead, long live the Super Six. Admittedly, the name needs work.

It increasingly looks like a two-division Premiership: a top six ostensibly fighting for the title (but really fighting for the Champions League places, with the two Mancs and Chelski seemingly a step above) and everyone else.

There are few, if any, contenders to break into that elite group – only teams who could drop out of it should they fail to keep up with the pack. Sunderland's coped with the loss of Bent and Henderson by adding Wickham, Craig Gardner, Seb Larsson, and David Vaughan, but there's little star power and a history of spring collapses. Stoke's slow, continual progress will probably be tempered (if not restrained) by European competition. Villa lost both Young and Downing – although Albrighton and N'Zogbia are decent replacements – and fans will be quick to turn on McLeish at the first sign of trouble. Everton came the closest last season, finishing four points behind their city rivals, but the Blues' financial situation is even more perilous than usual; unable to sign new players, at least they've held onto what they have. Otherwise, the gap between Liverpool in sixth and Fulham in eighth was nine points – the same as the gap between Fulham and 17th-placed Wolves.

As much as I'd love to be overwhelmingly optimistic in regards to Liverpool, jumping into the top four is a big ask no matter Dalglish's renaissance or this summer's business. I'll have a Liverpool-specific preview up tomorrow or Thursday, but the short version is I'm trying not to get carried away with the complete sea change we've seen over the last 12 months. Whether Liverpool can take Arsenal's fourth place is up to Arsenal as much as Liverpool.

It's inane and insane to overvalue in a single match, let alone a curtain-raising de facto friendly, but I've a sneaking suspicion that Sunday's Community Shield was the upcoming title race in brief. Parvenu Manchester City has the strongest side by some distance, but United has that eminently detestable, wholly implausible je ne sais quoi which sees them come back from two down to win in the last minute of added time every single time. Neither Mancini nor his mercenaries can be trusted to maintain any semblance of stability, especially since they'll also be competing in the Champions League for the first time.

Adding Phil Jones, Ashley Young, and David de Gea to a title-winning side frightens – the most the Glaziers' have spent in a single window – but questions remain. Will de Gea, he of the two Wembley howlers, adapt to England? Who's the first choice right back? And can a central midfield of Carrick, Fletcher, Gibson, Anderson, and Giggs really win the title? But every other squad provokes more questions: City's maddening inconsistency, Chelsea's aging legs and new manager, Arsenal's suicidal tendencies on the pitch and in the transfer market, etc.

At the other end of the table, I suspect playoff winners Swansea don't have enough lawyers, guns, or money to stay in the division – similar to Blackpool last year and Burnley, Derby, Watford, etc in previous. Norwich is in a similar, slightly sturdier boat, but parsimony from Wigan and insanity from Blackburn and Newcastle's owners could give them enough of a chance to stay up. QPR's thicker wallet, stronger squad, Colin Wanker's (hint: anagram) experience give them the best chance of survival of the promoted three. As with last season, I expect the difference between mid-table and relegation to be minimal and a season-long battle of attrition for 8-12 teams.

Fourth Annual League Table Guessing Game

You thought I'd stop doing this after infamously predicting Liverpool would finally win the title, only to see them slump to their lowest finish in more than a decade and have Benitez, who I've knelt at the altar of for years, sacked? You underestimate my shamelessness.

1) Chelsea
2) United
3) City
4) Arsenal
5) Liverpool
6) Spurs
7) Everton
8) Birmingham
9) Sunderland
10) Villa
11) Blackburn
12) Stoke
13) Wolves
14) West Ham
15) Fulham
16) Newcastle
17) Bolton
18) West Brom
19) Wigan
20) Blackpool

The only things I got right last season? Guessing Chelsea would finish ahead of United, Villa would finish sixth for the third straight season, and that Birmingham to make the biggest leap. Oh, and Burnley being relegated (that was a tough one). Still, I enjoy this one ritual of pure, unadulterated conjecture; I usually attempt to have some factual analysis behind the rest of my scribblings. Outside of City, it's been a summer with few signings; if any business happens, it's going to happen late in the window, which will make this guessing game even more of a moot point than usual. But you can't fight tradition.

I still think Chelsea have the strongest side in the league, I reckon Spurs will find it hard to compete on four fronts, especially if they qualify for the CL group stage, and I almost put City above United because Mancini has had a full preseason to implement his ideas (oh, and because of their massive spending spree), but the notion that the team will fail to gel and underwhelm remains inescapable.

What saddens me is picking Liverpool to finish fifth feels almost as optimistic as guessing they'd win the title last year. Pessimistic habits die hard. United is still United, Chelsea is still Chelsea, City's spent big, and Arsenal have marginally improved, adding Chamakh and Koscielny while shipping out Eduardo, Gallas, and Silvestre. Those sides look most likely to finish in the Champions League places. It's not as if Liverpool's squad has regressed – Cole, Jovanovic, Wilson, Shelvey in; Benayoun, Riera, Insua (?) out so far – and the boost of a new manager, as well as the lessened expectations, should help matters. But the team's depth (especially at striker and left-back) and the shadow of Hicks and Gillett still loom large.

Before yesterday's Martin O'Neill extravaganza, I would have guessed this season's top seven teams to be the same as last season's. But with Villa already on shaky ground – no new signings, Milner's exit imminent, rumors of unrest – it's hard to see them with yet another sixth-place finish. Yes, the loss of Jumpy, no matter how much I dislike him, seems worth at least three places. Like last year, it looks like there are a two-tiered top six or seven, a clutch of mid-table sides, and relegation candidates. Among the top six, Chelsea and United will be title contenders, while City, Arsenal, and Spurs will challenge for the Champions League places. The question is whether Liverpool's main competition will be City and Arsenal or Spurs (and whoever replaces Villa in the hunt for Europe).

Wolves seem most likely to join Stoke and Brum in making the leap to mid-table, having added Fletcher, Mouyokolo, Hunt, and Jelle van Damme. Birmingham and Blackburn should continue to cement their places and continue to be tough to beat, especially at home. Everton, Villa, Birmingham, and Sunderland look the strongest, but otherwise, there's little to choose from between the sides from 7th and 13th. Undoubtedly, one will be a "pleasant" surprise, while another will be surprisingly terrible.

As for the relegation candidates – the bottom five or six sides – Blackpool seem more certain that Burnley were last season, despite the immense awesomeness of everything that exits Ian Holloway's mouth. As much as I like Roberto Martinez as a manager, Wigan have been holding onto their Premier League place by fingernails for a few years now. Fulham should struggle without Hodgson – although bringing in Hughes should make for less of a decline than I originally expected (and I bet he's kicking himself for missing out on the Villa job). Coyle still has his work cut out for him at Bolton, while West Brom and Newcastle could also struggle. But Newcastle and Albion's cohesiveness in the Championship last season should be a boon – those type of teams are the ones who usually stay up. Incidentally, two promoted sides stayed up last season (Wolves and Brum) and the season before (Stoke and Hull).

I got exactly one final league place correct in last year's guess – the aforementioned Aston Villa in sixth. The laws of probability probably guarantee a better effort this year. A broken clock's at least right twice in a day. Maybe if I'm lucky I'll beat my record high of three from 2007.

I'll have my usual "in-depth" Liverpool season preview up in a day or two.

World Cup Draw and Predictions

I hate to bump a Liverpool preview off the top prior to the game, but the chance to blindly guess the winner of a tournament that's six months away is just too enticing.

Once England and the US were paired, I was certain had FIFA fixed the draw and that'd be the group of death. Now I reckon it's the second easiest behind Italy's (Group F). Still, I can't wait for England to face the US, with my loyalties massively conflicted, on the second day of the World Cup.

Group G is clearly the Group of Death, but D isn't far behind. Germany's favorite in D, but both Serbia and Ghana are tough teams, with Ghana stronger as the tournament's in Africa. Group G's the hardest because of Brazil's inclusion along with Portugal and Cote d'Ivoire, but you'd still have to favor Brazil to qualify, making the game between Portugal and Cote d'Ivoire winner-take-all (or winner-take-second). North Korea isn't winning anything. And I'd have to give the edge to Cote d'Ivoire because of 'home field' advantage, despite being thousands of miles from home. I can't overemphasize how much I think the good African teams will be great because of the tournament's location. The host country always goes further than their talent level suggests, but since South Africa's so bad, I guess I'm transferring their advantage to others.

And to make matters interesting, if England win their group, they'll play the second-placed team from Group D. If that's Ghana, as I suspect, that'll be an infinitely difficult game. But that's putting the cart about a mile ahead of the horse.

Below are my predictions for the complete bracket. Everything after the group stage is a complete crapshoot, because I obviously won't get all the group qualifiers right, but I'm nothing if not thorough.

Unsurprisingly, conservatively, boringly, I'm guessing Brazil will win it all. And making it out of the group will probably be their biggest challenge. As suggested above, Cote d'Ivoire, led by that diving, cheating Drogba but stocked with others such as Yaya Toure, Kalou, Zokora, and Kone, is my darkhorse to make a deep run.

Group A:
South Africa
Mexico - 2
Uruguay
France - 1

Group B:
Argentina - 1
Nigeria - 2
Korea Republic
Greece

Group C:
England - 1
USA - 2
Algeria
Slovenia

Group D:
Germany - 1
Australia
Serbia
Ghana - 2

Group E:
Netherlands - 1
Denmark
Japan
Cameroon - 2

Group F:
Italy - 1
Paraguay - 2
New Zealand
Slovakia

Group G:
Brazil - 1
North Korea
Cote d'Ivoire - 2
Portugal

Group H:
Spain - 1
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile - 2

Round of 16
(1) France v Nigeria
(2) England v Ghana
(3) Germany v USA
(4) Argentina v Mexico
(5) Netherlands v Paraguay
(6) Brazil v Chile
(7) Italy v Cameroon
(8) Spain v Cote d'Ivoire

Quarterfinal
(5) Netherlands v (6) Brazil
(1) Nigeria v (2) England
(3) Germany v (4)Argentina
(7) Italy v (8) Cote d'Ivoire

Semi-final:
Brazil v England
Argentina v Cote d'Ivoire

Final:
Brazil v Cote d'Ivoire

Third annual ‘Chances are, the final table won’t look anything like this’

1 – Liverpool
2 – Chelsea
3 – Manchester United
4 – Manchester City
5 – Arsenal
6 – Aston Villa
7 – Everton
8 – Tottenham
9 – Fulham
10 – Sunderland
11 – West Ham
12 – Wigan
13 – Birmingham
14 – Blackburn
15 – Bolton
16 – Hull
17 – Portsmouth
18 – Wolverhampton
19 – Stoke
20 – Burnley

I’ll take the blame if I jinx it. Predictions tend to make asses of any and all sportswriters, but I still feel duty-bound to tell you my best guess. FYI: I’ve never picked Liverpool to win it all in print.

I’ll expound a lot more with a preview of Liverpool's season in the next couple of days. Yes, it’ll be tough to take 6 points off both United and Chelsea again. Yes, it’ll be tough to win as many games in the final few minutes, which saved Liverpool something like 12 points last season. But I truly think they can do it.

I’d be a lot more emphatic about this prediction had Alonso not been sold. Whether or not Lucas, and subsequently Aquilani, can fill the void is Liverpool’s major concern. And, honestly, although I fear the early bedding-in process, both have the potential to be excellent players.

I trust Benitez to replace Alonso far more than I trust Ferguson to replace Ronaldo and Tevez. I think Liverpool and Chelsea are narrowly better than United on paper, but as of this writing (really, the transfer window should be from the last day of the season until the first of the next), I don’t think Valencia and Owen can replace what the Mancs have lost. I don't know if Nani can make the leap either, although he looked dangerous in the Community Shield until going off with a dislocated shoulder. United are arguably deeper than their competitors, but for the first time in a long time, I don't think they're as strong in the first XI when everyone's fit.

Chelsea’s the only one of the big four who have “improved,” and that improvement is solely adding Ancelotti and Zhirkov. I think Zhirkov’s a tidy player who’ll give both Malouda and Ashley Cole a run for their starting berth, but it remains to be seen whether Ancelotti’s style will work in England. For all of Ancelotti’s success in Europe, which is clearly Abramovich’s focus, he only won the league once with Milan in eight attempts. That question mark is the only reason I haven’t picked the Blues to win the title. If Hiddink were still in charge, I probably would.

With these three teams so tightly packed, it’ll probably come down to which side can stay the fittest and who can stay in form during the winter doldrums (where Liverpool stuttered last season and saw United overhaul the points deficit).

And I think, not far behind, will be three or four teams competing for the fourth CL spot: Nouveau riche City, Arsenal, and Villa definitely (although Villa will miss Laursen and Barry), and both Everton and Tottenham with an outside shot at it. City will be far better this year after all that spending, but I’m obviously not sure how that attacking-heavy squad will work. They’ll assuredly finish higher than 10th, but how much higher depends on whether Mark Hughes can manage all those personalities.

Arsenal lost Adebayor and Toure, but bought Vermaelen (center back) and have a healthy Eduardo, which seems almost a wash to me. They probably could have done with a couple more purchases, but such is the state of the economy (must be nice to be Real Madrid and City, the only two exceptions).

I’m guessing a six-way struggle for relegation, with Brum and Blackburn also having the potential to get sucked in. But I reckon the Brummies are the promoted side most likely to stay up – although that may just be because they're often a Benitez bogey side. After last season’s draws, I’d enjoy seeing both Hull and Stoke relegated, but now that Altidore’s joined Hull, I’m marginally conflicted. Burnley delighted me during the playoffs, but I don’t know if they can compete week-in and week-out and keep it up for a full season.

Five days until kickoff.