On Andy Carroll and Charlie Adam

I've said it before. If a manager doesn't like a player, doesn't want a player, it's almost always better to cut bait immediately.

But that doesn't mean I have to like it.

There's little I can add to James Tyler's wonderful piece for ESPN FC on Andy Carroll.

The new Liverpool is one of Raheem Sterling and Joe Allen. Of Adam Morgan and Fabio Borini. If you loathe Rodgers for being so swift to dismiss the likes of Carroll, at least credit him with having an identifiable plan. Unlike with Dalglish, there appears to be a crystalline method to such madness, even if it does mean Carroll's depressing demise.

Aye, there's the rub. So be it.

As painful as it is to admit, still, Carroll was a misguided purchase to begin with. Rodgers clearly doesn't believe he fits with Liverpool's future – he did everything but drive Carroll to London himself, and he probably didn't do that only because Liverpool had a match yesterday. Liverpool want him off the wage bill, and Carroll wants and needs to play regularly. And Liverpool simply can't get a better offer at the moment.

Personally, I'd still prefer Liverpool kept Carroll.

We'll see who, if anyone, Liverpool purchase with the added money, but the club will save all of approximately £3.2m (40 weeks at £80k/week), plus a rumored £1m loan fee. That's not much added to the piggy bank, as Rodgers admittedly earlier today.

Even if Rodgers has determined he has no use for Carroll, it's depressing. Carroll's 23. Liverpool paid an enormous, club record amount to sign him. And Rodgers won't even give him the chance to prove himself? That's an indescribable condemnation of Carroll as a player and Liverpool's spending under Comolli and Dalglish. And I truly hope it doesn't bite Liverpool in the ass. Carroll has more than enough time left in his career to prove Liverpool wrong, and now that much more motivation to do so.

Maybe he'll thrive at West Ham, and return to Liverpool a conquering hero and better player, with a role to play next season. Admittedly, not bloody likely. But maybe he'll thrive at West Ham and Liverpool will actually be able to sell him for a reasonable fee. That's the hope, and a distinct possibility. Or maybe he'll fail, West Ham will be relegated, and it'll be that much harder to find someone to take him off Liverpool's hands. That's a frightening prospect, but not as frightening as the concern that Liverpool will actually miss his few-and-far-between goals. But we'll get to that.

Adam departs for similar reasons, on a smaller scale, and permanently, transferred to Stoke for an undisclosed fee, most likely somewhere around £4-5m. Another of last season's scapegoats – right or wrong, right and wrong – another who didn't fit with Rodgers' future. I'm less sorry to see him depart, mostly because Liverpool should have more than enough in midfield to cope thanks to the Allen and Şahin additions. I'm still sorry he got more criticism and less credit than he deserved, but mostly I'm just relieved I won't have to tortuously defend his flaws any more. Can't help but wish Charlie luck, no matter how much I detest Stoke, because he should fit very well in that squad. And will probably punish Liverpool when Liverpool face the Potters this season because that's what happens.

Adam (and Spearing) aside, I still can't help worrying about squad depth. Maybe there will be a late purchase to ease concerns, but eight players have departed – Carroll, Adam, Spearing, Bellamy, Kuyt, Maxi, and Aurelio (even if Aquilani barely merits mentioning) – and four have come in, one only on loan for a season: Allen, Assaidi, Borini, and Şahin. It seems Sterling has a large role to play this season, so maybe we should call it five. More specifically, Liverpool have gotten rid of four forwards – Carroll, Kuyt, Bellamy, and Maxi – who played 8593 minutes and made 149 appearances combined, and scored 29 of Liverpool's 79 goals last season. If you add Adam's stats to those four, they contributed 39% of Liverpool's goals last season (31 of 79) and 39% of Liverpool's assists (22 of 56).

Scoring goals have been an issue, the issue, since the beginning of last season. And now, Suarez, Borini, and Morgan are Liverpool's only central strikers. Eccleston does not count. Eccleston will never count. Adam Morgan made his senior debut yesterday. Liverpool signed 18-year-old prospect Samed Yesil yesterday as well, who's just a month younger than Morgan, but his first interview for the official site suggests that he's a ways away from first team action, making just one late substitute appearance for Leverkusen last season. He'll almost assuredly spend the season with the u-21s. It's no surprise that Liverpool are currently scrambling around like a last-minute Christmas Eve shopper trying to buy a forward. We'll find out if it comes to fruition within nine or so hours.

As much as I regret Carroll's loan, it's the manager's decision, and an identifiably new era. And the manager's clearly decided Carroll has no role to play in it. Carroll and Adam were two of Comolli and Dalglish's marquee signings. I doubt Liverpool are consciously ridding themselves of the last regime, but you can't help but wonder, especially with yesterday's mooted Henderson for Dempsey swap deal – a deal with makes less than zero sense and is hopefully massively incorrect. The new regime's regime's strategy is simply far, far different than the last one. Which is probably the point.

Do you trust Brendan Rodgers? FSG sure seems to.

The Night Before Deadline Day

Twas the night before deadline day on Merseyside
All the creatures were stirring, with Jim White as our guide
Carroll was loaned out, Liverpool's cupboards were bare
But everyone knew soon a striker'd be there!

The ITKs logged onto Twitter and said
Rodgers promised a signing, we'll get a new Red!
A new number nine, one who can score a big goal
The last was a bust, he ran like a foal

Now Llorente! Now Sturridge! Now Cavani and Messi!
Now Huntelaar, Lewandowski, Loic Remy, or Dempsey!
To Sky's Transfer Ticker, that fine yellow bar!
To the top trending topics, they'll know who they are!

And on my TV and on my computer
I saw every name and heard every rumor
One had to be true, which one could it be?
It's almost deadline day, I can't wait 'til I see!

The timer counts down, soon Big Ben will toll
And we'll all know the striker who'll score that big goal
Jim White will come on with a grin and he'll say
"Happy Deadline Day all, Liverpool just bought Pelé!"

On Maxi, Summer Signings, and FSG's Business Model

Well, while waiting on pins and needles in the hopes that Liverpool have signed Fabio Borini (look, there's a picture of him in training gear!), we get news that Maxi Rodriguez's inevitable exit has finally come to pass.

Which Liverpool did an excellent job of promoting, as has become par for the course. While everyone's waiting for Borini news, Liverpool's Head of Content tweets this:

Transfer news at 6pm on lfc.tv

— Paul Rogers (@PaulRogersLFC) July 13, 2012

Everyone clicks, everyone goes to the website, everyone freaks out in anticipation. Nope, not Borini, not Dempsey, or not any of the other multiple names perpetually linked. Maxi's exit. At least we know where Liverpoolfc.com's priorities lie. Website hits.

It's not that Maxi – or Kuyt, as I wrote about five weeks ago, prompting many of the same squad depth fears – is irreplaceable. As many, many have already said, Maxi was criminally underused, with Liverpool's joint-best shot conversation rate and best league goals-per-minute rate last season. But both he and Kuyt are over thirty, had increasingly smaller roles last season, and were on comparably high wages considering each's relative value. This always seemed likely, as much as Maxi will be missed both on and off the field.

It's not even that Liverpool haven't signed anyone yet, despite the squad leaving for its US tour next week, despite the Europa League qualifiers beginning in just under three weeks, despite Liverpool having signed at least one player by this point in every summer transfer window over the last decade. And don't even start that Aquilani and Cole are like new signings because, come on. Let's be serious here. The lack of incoming players are obviously a concern, but it's an explainable one: Rodgers is still getting a handle on the squad, the Euros dampened business across the market, etc. Borini almost assuredly will be announced soon [Update (2:30pm): That didn't take long.], if not later today. And others will follow.

Still, as @AvoidingTheDrop cleverly quipped:

Number of additions made to Liverpool squad to replace three depth players: 0. Number of new social media initiatives by LFC this summer: 3.

— Avoiding the Drop (@avoidingthedrop) July 13, 2012

The perception is that LFC (read: FSG) care far more about commercial deals and the wage bill than the actual football. Granted, at this point, it's still perception, arguably reactionary perception, but the prevailing perception nonetheless. And with the season soon to start, frightfully close to becoming reality.

Of course, we were warned. A guest post from friend-of-the-blog Mike Anton said as much 21 months ago. The relevant section:

Boy, Do They Like Making Money: Their home field, Fenway Park, was first built in 1912, which they still use. It's an ugly matchbox of a stadium that people now consider "quaint" because they're too nice to use "horribly outdated." Most ownership groups who wanted to purchase the Sox in '03 were going to tear it down and build a new stadium. But not these guys! They believed that the park was the franchise, so they decided to keep the old barn because they couldn't envision a franchise without it. [Editor's Note: Please ignore the use of the word "franchise." A can of worms better left closed.]

Then they whored that thing out as hard as they possibly could.

The place only holds roughly 35,000, while most comparable stadiums fit 55,0000, so seats were placed everywhere. On top of the Green Monster, the space-saving giant wall that is meant to simulate a wall 380 feet away, there are now rows and rows of seats (at $200 a pop). There are new expensive club seats, banners and ads all over the Green Monster and anywhere else you look, corporate sponsorships all over the place. After games, on their own TV network, the Red Sox cut their post game show in half so they could sell "exclusive" naming rights to two different companies, one to their "Red Sox Post Game" show, and one to their "Post Post Game" show. They have a fan club named Red Sox Nation that costs about $20 a year, and a couple years ago they had a novelty "name the President of Red Sox Nation" vote....that cost 99 cents per vote.

That last paragraph sounds vaguely familiar. Especially given FSG's announced preference for renovating Anfield.

Just look at the stories on Liverpoolfc.com at the moment. Sure, there are articles on Maxi's departure and routine fluff about or from Henderson, Flanagan, and Enrique. But there are also links to the US Tour and Auto-Ticket Scheme – give us your money! – an announcement about Garuda Indonesia as the new official airline partner, a promotion for the new monthly magazine, a promotion for the television channel, and slide-show of kids in the new Warrior kits. A slideshow. Of little kids. In the new kit. I utterly despair. The football-to-business ratio is almost exactly split right down the middle.

Let's make no mistake about it. FSG are running a business here. But whether they're running a football club remains to be seen.

EXCLUSIVE!!!!1! LFC MANAGER SEARCH PROCESS REVEALED

I hate this summer, these owners, and Purslow so much. This is why I keep doing World Cup match reviews, and why there have been few posts about Liverpool. Because there's been no news from Liverpool – just obfuscation, smokescreens, and unfulfilled promises.

It's Dalglish. No, it's Hodgson. No, it's Pelligrini. No, it's Hodgson. No, wait, we're after Rijkaard or Deschamps, we promise. Ugh.

Wake me up in August.

On Milan Jovanovic

Well, the worry that Liverpool would find a way to foul it up seems to be put to rest, although I am still afraid of jinxing it. But Milan Jovanovic recently said that the deal's on, contingent upon his contract with Standard Liege coming to an end next month.

And I am pleased, but a warning. Everything I've seen and read about Jovanovic makes me picture him as a slightly crazier left-sided Dirk Kuyt. And a decent number of you probably just swore under your breaths. To make matters worse for those, Kuyt even scored more goals in the Dutch league, arguably more difficult than the Belgian, although he played as an out-and-out striker more there as well. And yet, unsurprisingly, I'm pretty positive Jovanovic will be a valuable addition to the club.

You know my feelings on Kuyt, and despite yours, Jovanovic checks a lot of boxes. Versatile, experienced, fast, hard-working, passionate, cheap, and an attacker – all good things (well, except cheap, but that's sadly still a necessity). Other than fast and cheap (not that £9m is a massive wedge), those are also attributes that Kuyt brings to mind. Liverpool could do with a creative, tricky attacker comfortable out wide – one not reliant on cutting inside and capable of crossing, so Insua's not the only one trying to deliver them from that flank – but Hicks is still looking for someone sucker to buy the club while Gillett scrounges nearby sofas for loose change. Jovanovic fills a big hole, whether he primarily starts on the left, partners Torres, or backs him up.

But don't expect him to be that tricky winger or a 20-goal striker. I've seen him as both a striker and left winger in Liege's 4-4-2 and as a left forward in a 4-3-3. He played similarly for Serbia during World Cup qualifying. He'll probably play similarly at Liverpool, meaning that if the 4-2-3-1 remains, he should vie for the position Benayoun or Babel usually occupies, replacing Torres as the lone striker if necessary.

From what I've seen – somewhere between 5-10 European appearances with Liege and a match or two for Serbia – Jovanovic is much quicker and a far better dribbler, although it remains to be seen if he can replicate that in the frenetic Premiership. No matter how passionate he is, he'll probably never replicate Kuyt's perpetual motion. Let's hope he can copy Dirk's nose for big game goals. Jovanovic's return at international level is better – 9 in 24 compared to 16 in 60 – but the countries he scored against were Finland, Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, and the Faroe Islands. Kuyt at least found the net against the likes of France, England, and the US. Maybe his knack for running with the ball makes Benayoun's a better comparison, just Milan's more a forward where Yossi's a midfielder, but in being versatile attackers rather than an out-and-out striker or winger, I see more similarities than differences with Kuyt as well.

This isn't to denigrate one at the expense of the other, or both. Regular readers are well aware of the lengths I travel to defend Kuyt and I truly am happy about Jovanovic's imminent arrival. Yes, on the one hand, it's a free transfer, evoking memories of Degen and Voronin (and Maxi, Aurelio, and Fowler). On the other, he was also courted by the likes of AC Milan and Valencia (and Villa and Everton). And contrary to what some might think, there'd be big clubs after Kuyt if Liverpool ever decided to get rid.

I'll definitely be paying closer attention to Serbia's World Cup, but we'll have to wait and see. Don't expect miracles but don't write him off either – the story of almost every free transfer. Blindfolded darts unless it's a big name on ungodly wages (cough Ballack cough). All in all, it seems a good move, if somewhat spendthrift (even considering a reported £10m in wages over three years). But that's the reality at present.

Besides, how can you not be on pins and needles for a player who says this (from the above link, and others, translated this Serbian interview):

"They might have had a poor season, but Liverpool are still Liverpool," he said. "There will still be a squad of 20 players of the highest quality and everyone waiting for the chance to show what they can do.

"There will be a lot of games and everyone will have the chance to play. I really see this as the place where I want to be. The thought of playing at Anfield is an incredible inspiration for me."

Ugh

Well, subject to a medical of course (of course!), Alonso’s finally been sold to Real Madrid. In other earth-shattering news, the sky’s still blue.

The sum of the text on the official website, in sum, is thus:

Liverpool Football Club this evening confirmed they had reached agreement for the sale of Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid, subject only to a medical.

The terms of the deal will remain confidential and undisclosed.

Verbose, as usual.

And, continuing with the laconic theme, I’m of little mind to eulogize Alonso’s stint, as I often do when players are sold. I’ve written more than enough proclaiming the Spaniard’s talents and contributions to the team over the past few months. Plus, and no offense meant, but Alonso’s been a more-integral part of the team than say, Arbeloa, Luis Garcia, or Warnock. No player’s bigger than the club, and Gerrard, Torres, Mascherano, and Reina are more important to the current team, but I’m still going to have to come to terms with this sale. Yes, even though it’s been in the works for weeks, I’m still not a happy camper.

So, for at least now, I’ll just say, ‘Thanks for the last five years, Xabi, enjoy your time with the other mercenaries you’re now teammates with. I hope the tax cut is worth it.’

You can read one of two things into Liverpool’s above statement. Either the fee was less than Liverpool’s supposed hard-line, or Benitez doesn’t want to tie his hands in regards to future business by showing his budget. Either way, I don’t think the fee amounts to Xabi’s true worth, especially when it’s Madrid who set the crazy market in the first place, but that’s more as a result of Alonso’s talent rather than whatever total Liverpool recouped.

And either way, the summer’s long, drawn-out saga reaches the end of phase one. Yep, only phase one. We still have, at most, a month left of speculation over replacements. Awesome. And yep, "replacements." I used the plural for a reason. I don't know if one purchase will be enough to fill the void.

I imagine most have seen the Aquilani gossip since Monday. Marca (sigh) says a £15.3m deal was negotiated (sorry for the Goal.com link), contingent upon the sale of Alonso. I don’t catch a ton of Serie A, but I thought him a player similar to Paul Scholes, who plays further up the field. Maybe Benitez sees him if a different position in England, or maybe he sees a more mobile formation, similar to Barca last season: Mascherano holding deep, Gerrard and Aquilani in the Iniesta/Xavi positions, and two of Kuyt/Babel/Benayoun playing closer to Torres.

But the Football Manager-esque speculation can wait for another day. Players will be bought, but Xabi Alonso’s going to be very hard to replace. And there are only 12 days until the league starts.

To Lucas or Not To Lucas

Okay, so I don't want to single out Marlon (second time that I've posted because of one of your comments!), but I think this sentiment deserves to be here rather than subsumed beneath 15 previous comments.

At this point I'd rather see Lucas come good then seeing a new signing flourish in our midfield.

I'm doing my utmost to not assume Alonso's definitely departing, but it's difficult. And the discussion over his possible replacement is a valid one, as much as I don't really desire to tackle the issue.

But I agree with the above comment, and for two reasons – but I'm still a little nervous about him as an everyday player, as I am about pretty much every player until they establish themselves.

One, I've been underwhelmed by the names mooted as replacements. Some are good players – even potentially Liverpool-quality – but most would necessitate a change in system (which I don't want to happen, as it'd probably break up the Gerrard/Torres partnership). And none brings to the table what Alonso can.

Two, Lucas knows Benitez's system having been a Liverpool player for two full seasons, and has turned in some good performances against big teams (United, Inter, Chelsea). And while he's had his scapegoat moments (Wigan and Everton during the dire winter stretch last season), he's also consistently improved during his tenure. And he's only 22 years old.

But, I'm admittedly still a bit wary of the Masch/Lucas pairing against the likes of Stoke and Birmingham (among others). And I find that tough to reconcile with my firm belief in the 4-2-3-1 and the Gerrard/Torres pairing.

Hopefully, this will all be moot, but while hope springs eternal, the spring often runs dry.

50% of my posts this month have been about Alonso

Xabi Alonso hands in transfer request

I’d hoped Alonso was classier than this. But a transfer request doesn’t change anything. Pay Liverpool’s valuation or Alonso stays. A transfer request doesn’t make him cheaper.

But yeah, you stay classy, Xabi Alonso. Way to wait until there are 16 days left before the season starts to shiv Benitez in the back.

I would imagine there will be more to say on this in the near future. Sigh.

Update (9:42pm): So I may have jumped the gun. In my defense, I usually take the Echo at gospel, but that's because of Tony Barrett's impeccable record, and he's gone now. And this is what the Times recently posted (Barrett's new gig, but he didn't write this):

The saga had descended into farce earlier in the day when Alonso became embroiled in a game of claim and counterclaim. Sources at Liverpool said that Alonso submitted a transfer request on Wednesday evening in an effort to hasten a move to Real, but the suggestions were dismissed by Alonso's representatives, who insisted that the player had taken no such action.

This is why I've been hesitant to post about transfer gossip in previous summers. I can't imagine what I would have been like if I was writing during the Gerrard to Chelsea fiasco. I haven't been able to restrain myself in regards to this saga - which probably shows how important I think Alonso is. But, obviously, not at the expense of the team as a whole.

Man, I can't wait for the season to start.

You Reap What You Sow

Well, the Alonso saga has finally come full circle with last year’s Barry fiasco.

“XABI ALONSO has told Rafa Benitez he wants to quit Anfield and sign for Real Madrid – but Liverpool will not grant his wish unless the Spanish giants come up with a fee in the region of £35m.”

Shit. Shit shit shit shit shit. Karma is a bitch. It’s the same situation as Gareth Barry the previous summer. And I expect and encourage Liverpool to act exactly as Aston Villa did.

This news sucks. I don’t need to rehash the multiple Alonso posts from the last few months. His exit would pose some serious problems. If he goes, a replacement has to be bought – Gerrard should not be pushed back into central midfield, not at the cost of his partnership with Torres – but that’s a conversation for another day.

If you don’t want to play for Liverpool, well, honestly, fuck off. Bigger and better players have left the club before. However, he’s not leaving for less than £35m, and I still think Liverpool should hold out for more. He’s worth it, and Madrid’s got the money. Make Real pay through the nose. Make Real pay every penny in advance. And if they don’t, Alonso'll stay. Either he’ll come back with a chip of his shoulder, like this season, or he’ll rot in the reserves for three years. Whichever. The fee is £35m, Madrid. I’d take Sneidjer and £25m as well, but I’m not the negotiator.

God, I hope Liverpool meets Real in the Champions League again this year. I’d thoroughly enough another four-goal annihilation.

I will pay you money to make the Alonso rumors go away

With all the gossip about a transfer to Real making me queasy, I’ve been trying to think of a way to quantify Alonso’s importance to the team. Stats are a frequent fallback, and are usually better at elucidating what I struggle to put into words.

But, as I’m quick to remind, stats don’t often tell the whole story, and that’s the case with Xabi. Liverpool’s win/loss record wasn’t much different whether Alonso started, came off the bench, or wasn't in the squad last season. He played in 47 of the team’s 55 games this season (only Carragher, Reina, and Kuyt played more), starting 40. Liverpool was 25-11-4 in games he started, 5-1-1 in games off the bench, and 5-3-0 in games he didn’t feature.

Alonso had five goals (matching his previous high from ‘05-06) and five assists – nothing special, but not too shabby (ba dum ching) for a deep-lying midfielder. And this was a season I suggested he was player of the year. And I wasn’t the only one. You just can’t get across sentiments like “…[T]he star of the show was Xabi Alonso. The Basque appears to operate in a vortex, time slowed around him so he always seems to have space. It is a rare gift.” with stats.

Liverpool’s record in Alonso’s substitute appearances is interesting, but still doesn’t paint a pretty enough picture. These were:

1-0 Sunderland 8/16 (on for Plessis 46’)
3-0 WBA 11/8 (Gerrard 80’)
2-4 Spurs LC 11/12 (Plessis 64’)
0-0 Fulham 11/22 (Mascherano 64’)
5-1 Newcastle 12/28 (Benayoun 60’)
3-2 Pompey 2/7 (Dossena 66’)
2-0 WBA 5/17 (Masch 51’)

Eight of the 16 goals scored came after Alonso entered. Highlights came against Sunderland and Pompey, with an assist to Torres for the winner at the Stadium of Light and his entrance sparking an epic comeback at Fratton Park (including an assist on the first goal). He scored the fifth against Newcastle from the spot and started the move that won the penalty with a timely interception.

Again, stats don’t tell the whole story, but that’s a respectable haul off the bench. It doesn’t show, and I’m not claiming, that Alonso’s better as a sub. But I think it helps to demonstrate – and this is the point I want to get across, no matter the stats – that he’s a game-changing footballer. You can’t say that about many. And you can’t expect a team to get better by selling players like that.

You can’t quantify the only player who’s a recurring goal-threat from his own half. You can’t quantify the jaw-dropping beauty of defense-splitting passes like the aforementioned assist against Sunderland. Or moves like this. The best stat that I can come up with that emphasizes Alonso’s uniqueness and ingenuity is the fact that he got six players (Vidic, Cahill, Zabaleta, Valencia, Lampard, and Barton) sent off this season, which has to be some sort of record. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool won all six of those games.

It’s easy to see why Madrid are wooing Alonso so intently. No matter how much money they’ve spent on other players this summer, or whomever else they deign to purchase, Alonso would represent the signing of the summer. Kaka, Ronaldo, Benzema, et al are incredible attackers in their own right, but someone has to get them the ball. And while Gago and Diarra (either Diarra) are serviceable ball-winners, neither has the passing range Xabi provides. Wesley Sneidjer’s the only one who holds a candle, and there doesn’t appear to be room for him (or any of his Dutch comrades) in Perez’s team. And that Alonso's actually Spanish represents the ultimate coup for Real.

Madrid’s spending spree was infuriating before all the attention was on Alonso (and Arbeloa, but that’s another matter). This, unfortunately and obviously, makes it personal. They’ve thrown around a distasteful amount of money so far, outspending even the nouveau riche City, and yet the figures proposed for a player of Alonso’s caliber have been at least £10m too light.

But even if Real offered a legitimate fee for Alonso, Liverpool’s response should be Xeroxed copies of Benitez’s behind. Because there are few, if any, who could replace what Alonso brings to the team and Rafa’s style of play.