Visualized: Liverpool 3-0 Villarreal

Previous Match Infographics: Swansea (a), Villarreal (a),Newcastle (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

5' – Mignolet does incredibly well to save Mario's tricky deflected shot, the first shot of the match.
7' – Bruno can't get out of the way of Firmino's low cross which Sturridge missed, an unfortunate ricochet own goal to level the tie on aggregate.
46' – A wonderful last ditch block by Lovren on Bakumbu's counter-attack just after halftime.
77' – Denis Suarez's penalty shout, softly pushed by Moreno, is ignored. Had Villarreal gotten it and scored, they'd have taken the lead on away goals.
81' – The only reason Lallana wasn't offside was that Musacchio, embarrassed by Firmino, had one hand on the pitch. Not to mention Sturridge's scuffed shot falling directly to the goal-scorer. Or Firmino's 'was it a scuffed shot or a throughball?' falling directly to a just-onside Sturridge for Liverpool's second.

The narrative is that Liverpool were really good, and Liverpool won, and Liverpool deserved to win. Anfield was utter magic (incidentally, Liverpool haven't lost at home since January 26, 0-1 v Stoke in a cup tie that Liverpool won on penalties, 12 matches ago). Emre Can was a beast. The Lovrenaissance continues apace. Firmino was back to his squint-and-you-kinda-see-Luis-Suarez best. Klopp is a genius.

And those are good narratives! All those things are absolutely true! But football is still a game of fine margins and singular moments, and Liverpool came out on top of those fine margins. This could have been a very different game and/or result if just one of those aforementioned moments, or a couple of others, went the wrong way.

But they didn't.

Did the better team win? Yep. The better team over two legs? Yep. The better team throughout this competition? Yep. But you've watched enough Liverpool matches; I don't need to tell you that the "better team" doesn't always win.

If not for the red card – fully deserved, by the way – the above statistics are a bit closer. 11 of Liverpool's 25 shots, including three clear-cut chances and five on-target, came after Ruiz's dismissal. But, to be fair, Liverpool were already ahead by that point. Villarreal had a full complement of players for 70 minutes and took just six shots. Just four of them came after Bruno's own goal to level the scores on aggregate. They put just two of those six on target. They had just 40% possession.

They weren't good. Liverpool didn't let them be good, at either end of the pitch.

This sums it up nicely.

Rarely interested in heatmaps but Villarreal's is very telling: red hot in their own box, barely anything in ours pic.twitter.com/cgIgxr7Pxu

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) May 6, 2016

But that's the way Villarreal tend to play. Concede possession, defend, counter at pace. Just as impressive as Liverpool's attacking performance was Liverpool's prevention of Villarreal's counter-attacks.

The vast majority of Liverpool's tackles and interceptions came in the middle third of the pitch – four successful tackles and four interceptions from Can, three successful tackles from Lovren, Moreno, and Lallana, three interceptions from Moreno and Milner. A moment in the 13th minute sticks out: Lovren's tackle on Bakumbu just past the halfway line. If Lovren misses, Villarreal are in on goal, three versus two. But Lovren dispossesses the dangerous striker with aplomb, and less than 10 seconds later, Lallana has a clear-cut chance at goal from Milner's throughball, skewing his shot narrowly wide. Or there's also when Lovren did *just enough* on Bakumbu's opportunity in the 45th, forcing a good chance to come from slightly wide and it's tame under pressure. Or in the 46th, when Lovren excellently blocked a similar effort to that which came just before the interval.

Most superlatives will focus on Liverpool's attackers – as happens when the side scores three, and especially because of the mind-bogglingly busy Firmino, at the epicenter of all three goals – as well as Can, not just available just two weeks after he was "probably out for the rest of the season" but massive in midfield, going forward and dropping back, the textbook definition of a box-to-box midfielder. But you can't forget the defense. You can't forget anyone. As against Dortmund, it was one of those matches where if you're rating players, absolutely everyone's at least a seven. But, yes, Lovren in defense, Can in midfield, and Firmino, Lallana, and Sturridge in attack were the stars on show.

Villarreal are averaging 12 shots allowed per match in La Liga. Liverpool took 15 last week, admittedly mostly not-great opportunities, and 25 (!!!) yesterday. Liverpool have taken more than 25 shots just four times in the league and Europa League this season 35 v Kazan, 28 v West Brom (sigh), 26 v Leicester, and 37 v Everton (lol). Leicester, below par that day, notwithstanding, the rest of those sides defend like Villarreal defend. Unlike in the previous leg, where eight of Liverpool's 15 shots came from outside the box (with just four in the Danger Zone), 15 of Liverpool's 25 shots came from inside the box, with 10 in the Danger Zone (including both of Liverpool's goals as well as the own goal).

In the three previous knockout rounds – 540 minutes against Napoli (second in Serie A), Bayer Leverkusen (third in the Bundesliga), and Sparta Prague (second in Czech Liga) – Villarreal allowed just three clear-cut chances. Three. Two in the 4-2 win at Sparta Prague, one v Napoli. Liverpool created five yesterday.

Liverpool still need to do better with their finishing – clear-cut chance or not – but creating good opportunities has also been an issue this season, especially in the league. Conversely, Villarreal has been excellent in limiting opponents' good opportunities. Neither was the case yesterday.

Shot creation? Excellent. Shot quantity? Excellent. Shot quality? Excellent. And this isn't the first time we've seen Liverpool at their best in the Europa League.



Woof.

Aside from Augsburg – and no offense meant – Liverpool have faced a slate of opponents fit for the Champions League. At least two of the last three opponents will be in that competition next season. United are fifth in the Premier League, Dortmund are comfortably second in the Bundesliga, and Villarreal are comfortably fourth in La Liga.

And, the-definition-of-miraculous comeback against Dortmund taken into account, Liverpool deserved to beat every one of them.

Once again, Liverpool rose to the occasion. Liverpool came damned close to its full potential when the lights were brightest and backs were against the wall. How often can we say that about the Liverpool sides we've seen for the last, say, nine years? You know, since Liverpool were last in a European semi-final. The domestic cup finals in 2011-12, a handful of big league matches in the second-half of 2013-14? That's about it.

Liverpool have now reached their second cup final in Klopp's seven months in charge, after failing to reach any since May 2012. That's nuts. Liverpool continue to frustrate in the league, Liverpool have been without different key players through injury at every stage of the campaign, Klopp has yet to add a single signing of his own to this disappointing-for-a-season-and-some-more squad, and Liverpool still have its second chance to lift a trophy this season.

Now it's up to Liverpool to surpass their performance in that last cup final.

Liverpool v Villarreal 05.05.16

Villarreal lead 1-0 on aggregate

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Swansea (a); 0-1 Villarreal (a); 2-2 Newcastle (h)
Villarreal: 2-0 Valencia (a); 1-0 Liverpool (h); 0-0 Real Sociedad (h)

Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 0-1 Villarreal (a); 4-3 Dortmund (h), 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Villarreal: 1-0 Villarreal (a); 4-2 Sparta Prague (a), 2-1 Sparta Prague (h); 0-0 Leverkusen (a), 2-0 Leverkusen (h); 1-1 Napoli (a), 1-0 Napoli (h); 3-3 Plzen (a); 1-0 Rapid Wien (h); 2-1 Dinamo Minsk (a); 4-0 Dinamo Minsk (h); 1-0 Plzen (h); 1-2 Rapid Wien (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, Origi 2; Benteke, Can, Firmino, Ibe, Lovren, Sakho, Sturridge 1
Villarreal: Bakambu 9; Bruno, Leo Baptistao, Soldado 2; Adrian, Bailly, Castillejo, dos Santos, Pina, Suarez 1

Referee: Viktor Kassai (HUN)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Toure Moreno
Milner Can
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

A European semi-final. Liverpool are behind, narrowly, on aggregate, but will be in front of a roaring Anfield. They have 90 minutes to make up the deficit, ideally scoring at least once, but preferably twice, without conceding against an incredibly-dangerous-on-the-counter Villarreal.

So, how do you want to play this?

Seems to me there are just two choices. Either try to do what you did in Villarreal – patient, controlled, primarily focused on stopping Villarreal, knowing you've got 90 minutes to get your goal – but, you know, better than last week, or go for the throat: make the opposition worry about you rather than worrying about them. A more secure 4-3-3 or a more attacking 4-2-3-1/4-4-2.

I can't emphasize how happy I am that Emre Can is back in squad, and I'm very much assuming "back in the squad" means "ready, willing, and able to start, just get out of his way," because Emre Can in the XI means Liverpool will be better in either of the above formations. Emre Can doesn't have the guile that Lucas does in his own half, but he's quicker, stronger, and taller, and he's undeniably more of a threat going forward, as long as going forward doesn't also leave massive gaps at the back. Yes, Emre Can.

But really, the question is "to Sturridge or not to Sturridge."

I am firmly in Camp "To Sturridge." He is Liverpool's best striker, he is Liverpool's best goal-scorer, and he is finally healthy. He can score from range, from inside the box, from headers. He scares defenders with his pace but can also hold play up to involve others. Those qualities, to me, outweigh any loss in Liverpool's pressing that you get when Firmino starts up front. We saw how dire Liverpool were in attack last week: crosses to no one, an inability to hold up play when punting out from the back, etc. Liverpool pressed quite well, which helped keep Villarreal from punishing Liverpool until the very last minute of the match, but Liverpool lost so much more in potential firepower.

If anything, there's a valid argument that Liverpool might need that potential firepower off the bench if the game's still tied – or, heaven forbid, Liverpool's behind – around the hour mark. Do what you did last week and ideally score this time, but if you don't, then Sturridge. Then the go for the throat. But (*gulp, sigh*) bringing on Benteke, giving Sturridge a battering ram strike partner, might well be enough of a positive change if Liverpool find itself in that situation.

If not to Sturridge, it'll be Allen: Can/Lucas behind Milner and Allen, with Coutinho, Lallana, Firmino up front. Liverpool will look to patiently control play, and try to create some chances, and I'm fearful they'll fail because Villarreal are very, very good at making you play wide, and in this formation with these players, Liverpool have no one to play into from wide unless Liverpool somehow create a magical, flowing, one-touch passing move or someone pulls an absolute rabbit from the hat. Which, you know, is possible, but I'd rather not solely rely on that.

Meanwhile, we know exactly what Villarreal will do. Defend, then counter at pace. Two exceptionally well-organized deep banks of four which will look to funnel Liverpool out to the flank and otherwise deny any space in the final third, then a fast break through the front four when Liverpool lose possession: the pace of Denis Suarez, dos Santos, and Bakumbu; the hold-up play and creativity of Soldado. Lather, rinse, repeat.

And I'll be surprised if Villarreal are much different from last week's side. Bailly picked up a groin injury in that match, and is doubtful, but that just means that the returning Musacchio (who came on as a substitute on Thursday and also started over the weekend) will keep his place. Otherwise, the same line-up in the same 4-4-2/4-4-1-1 formation. Asenjo; Mario, Musacchio, Ruiz, Costa; dos Santos, Pina, Bruno, Suarez; Soldado, Bakumbu.

Like Liverpool, Villarreal also made multiple changes for their weekend match, with Bakumbu, dos Santos, Bruno, Pina, Suarez, Costa, Mario, and Asenjo rested. But Villarreal, away from home against a decent eighth-place Valencia, still comfortably won 2-0 through goals from Samu and Adrian, sealing a place in next season's Champions League. I really hope the stats nerds are wrong and momentum's not really a thing. Because Villarreal, unbeaten in three, have a lot more momentum than winless-in-three Liverpool.

This is it. This is for a place in a European final, which would be Liverpool's first since 2007. This is why Liverpool have rested players for multiple league matches over the last month. This is for the season.

If Liverpool win, the frustration and failings have been worth it. If Liverpool lose, it's much more of a lost season: a necessary and sometimes-actually-good adaptation to the new manager's tactics and style, but stop-start and without a much-needed short-term reward.

And it's against a side that's more cohesive, coherent, and settled. One which is incredibly tough to beat, which hasn't conceded a single goal in its last three matches. But this is also a European semi-final involving Liverpool at Anfield. We've been here before. And we've every reason to believe anything's possible.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Villarreal

Previous Match Infographics: Newcastle (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)


As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Klopp: "We have to play brave football. We are now in the semi-finals. We got there because we deserved it." #LFC

— Viktor Fagerström (@ViktorFagerLFC) April 27, 2016

This is the danger of playing for 0-0. Until injury time, 0-0 looked the most likely score. Liverpool had mainly stopped Villarreal from its game, preventing counter-attacks, limiting set plays, limiting mistakes. Both sides had a couple of chances – just a couple – and an equal amount of "reasonable to almost good" ones despite Liverpool's total shot advantage.

Villarreal had a spell of pressure in the 21st leading to Pina shots saved and blocked, Bakumbu's set play header hit the post just after halftime, and Mignolet's excellent save on Bakumbu in the 87th. Allen spurned an excellent opporunity in the 5th, when a deflected cross found him in space on the penalty shot, but he shot straight at the keeper. Firmino had a Danger Zone shot saved onto the post in the 65th. Moreno tore down the length of the pitch after a Villarreal corner in the 88th but wildly missed at the near post.

For the most part, it was a damp squib of a match. Which isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world in a first leg away European match. But one mistake and you're doomed, and that's exactly what happened in injury time. Bruno dispossessed Lallana in Villarreal's defensive third with pretty much every Liverpool player caught up the pitch. Lallana failed in his press, Milner failed in his press, Moreno failed in his press, and then Lucas failed in his press. With Moreno out of position, Denis Suarez was one-on-one with Toure, able to out-pace the veteran for Bruno's ball over the top, Toure choosing to stay with the attacker rather than play for offside. Moreno, now somehow in the middle of pitch, couldn't keep up with Adrian, tap in. Credit where due: it was a really good move, especially between Suarez, Bruno, and Adrian to break through midfield. Still, Liverpool didn't need to make it easier for them. Game over, plan ruined.

I rarely criticize Jürgen Klopp's decisions. Every day I wake up amazed and pleased that he's somehow Liverpool's manager. And he's rarely given me moments to criticize. Liverpool were missing key players, Liverpool had defended well, Liverpool were away in a first-leg European semi-final. But I do not understand yesterday's mid-game management.

The starting XI was understandable, even if it's not what I would've chosen. A more defensive side, a side better suited to pressing, a three-man midfield to better able to prevent Villarreal's quick transition attacks. All perfectly valid choices, and the first half, the first 60 minutes, even the first 90 minutes until added time bore them out.

Klopp didn't miss Allen's 5th-minute chance or Moreno's 88th-minute chance. Klopp wasn't one of five or so players caught out of position on Villarreal's winner. But I'm a little annoyed at Liverpool's passivity in the starting XI and exceptionally annoyed at the substitutions, or lack thereof, in the final 30 or minutes. And I can't help but think back to Liverpool's last loss, at Southampton, where Klopp seemingly sat on his hands in the final 30 minutes rather than making changes to – in that case – solidify the midfield or defense, and Liverpool ended up conceding two late goals.

This time, it was Liverpool's attack which needed the boost, and it was only one late goal, but it's still a loss and still a massive regret. It doesn't happen often – those are the only two matches where I remember getting mad at the manager's in-game choices, and Liverpool have seen a lot of goals and better play from substitutes this season, much more than from the previous manager – but the losses always stick in the memory longer than the wins.

Most notably, you leave out Daniel Sturridge in the biggest game of the season, and you deliver that attacking performance. Preferring Origi is one thing, as both legs against Dortmund demonstrated. Preferring a struggling Roberto Firmino is another. In the two months between Arsenal at home in January and United away in the Europe League in March, Firmino scored eight and assisted on four. 14 matches, 1233 minutes, 12 combined goals and assists; an average of 0.88 goals+assists per 90 minutes. Since returning from injury three weeks ago, he's got one tap-in rebound goal and no assists in 459 over seven matches. Aside from his work-rate, he's not been good.

And it's especially galling when, as predicted, the vast majority of Liverpool's attacks came from the flanks because that's where Villarreal's exceptionally well-organized two banks of four forced you to go. Liverpool's attacks seemed to go something like Moreno cross, Milner's cross, Clyne's cross, Lallana's cross, Toure's punt from defense, Milner's cross. And Firmino probably isn't heading them in. Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, and Allen almost certainly aren't heading them in. Firmino's 5'11", Milner's 5'9", Lallana's 5'8", Coutinho's 5'7", and Allen's 5'6". Those was Liverpool's five players yesterday. Sturridge at least gives you a chance at those, with headed goals against Villa, Stoke, and Bournemouth this season. He's 6'2". And his hold-up play from hoofed balls out of defense, which Liverpool played an awful lot of, is vastly better than Firmino's as well. Is Firmino's pressing really more valuable than that?

Sure, I guess, if you really are insistent on a) keeping it 0-0 and b) maybe scoring from pressing or quick passing moves on the break. At least for the first hour. And that it was Ibe first off the bench wasn't that surprising either. He was replacing the ill Coutinho, it'd only been 45 minutes, and – in theory if not practice – his pace may be able to stretch Villarreal on counter-attacks or when Liverpool hoof the ball out from the back.

But to not bring Sturridge on at all? Really? With Benteke for Firmino in the 90th minute as they only other substitution, supposedly as extra protection on any set plays? It's another thing if Benteke's brought on earlier; I'd heavily disagree, because he's often bad at the football, but at least he's an actual target-man. But for extra defensive protection in the final minute, with Sturridge still sat in his warm-up clothes? That's almost insulting.

This is going to sound much ruder than I mean, but that's brave football? You've got to dance with what brung you.

That Villarreal got the narrow win is marginally deserved. Neither side attacked well, but Villarreal attacked better and smarter. Liverpool took 15 shots, but eight of them came from outside the box, with all eight from outside the box either off-target or blocked. Villarreal took nine shots, and six of the nine came from inside the box, with two of the three from outside the box on target. Only nine of Liverpool's shots came from key passes; eight of Villarreal's nine came from key passes. One attack was less frequent, but more coherent, and that's the side that scored and that's the side that won.

To be slightly fairer to Liverpool, overturning a 0-1 deficit at Anfield in a week's time is doable. One Liverpool goal means extra time and two mean a win, as long as Liverpool keep Villarreal – a dangerous counter-attacking side if given space, as we saw in the 92nd minute – from scoring. If Villarreal score, Liverpool will need at least three, but this is a Liverpool side that's scored 14 goals in its last four home matches.

Of course, Villarreal aren't Stoke or Everton or Newcastle. And they're certainly not Dortmund, which was a performance and result we'll rarely see in our lifetimes. Next Thursday, there will be 11 Villarreal players in their own half for 90 minutes at Anfield, determined to defend, defend, and defend some more, and then counter-attack when Liverpool push too far forward too quickly. Which is exactly what Liverpool's struggled against multiple times this season, especially at home. And which is exactly how Villarreal scored, and won, yesterday's game.

Play for the 0-0, and get burned. Make one mistake (or, more accurately, multiple little mistakes on one sequence), and get burned. Stop getting burned, Liverpool. Stop burning yourself, Liverpool.

Liverpool at Villarreal 04.28.16

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Newcastle (h); 4-0 Everton (h); 2-1 Bournemouth (a)
Villarreal: 0-0 Real Sociedad (h); 0-3 Real Madrid (a); 1-2 Rayo Vallecano (a)

Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 4-3 Dortmund (h), 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Villarreal: 4-2 Sparta Prague (a), 2-1 Sparta Prague (h); 0-0 Leverkusen (a), 2-0 Leverkusen (h); 1-1 Napoli (a), 1-0 Napoli (h); 3-3 Plzen (a); 1-0 Rapid Wien (h); 2-1 Dinamo Minsk (a); 4-0 Dinamo Minsk (h); 1-0 Plzen (h); 1-2 Rapid Wien (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, Origi 2; Benteke, Can, Firmino, Ibe, Lovren, Sakho, Sturridge 1
Villarreal: Bakambu 9; Bruno, Leo Baptistao, Soldado 2; Bailly, Castillejo, dos Santos, Pina, Suarez 1

Referee: Damir Skomina (SLO)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Toure Moreno
Lallana Milner Allen Coutinho
Firmino Sturridge

How's your week been?

Not great, Bob.

Henderson, Can, and Origi remain out through injury, Sakho's not contesting his failed drug test – which means at least a six-month ban, and more likely two years – and Liverpool are coming off a humiliating draw against probably-will-still-be-relegated Newcastle.

So it's a smashing time to play a Europa League semifinal against a team that hasn't lost in this competition since September.

Cleverer people than I – Sky Sports' Rob Palmer in the Echo and Anfield Index – have noted that Villarreal look an awful lot like Leicester if you squint hard enough. While they've not succeeded in the league to such a degree, they've been a surprisingly good side considering their underlying statistics: good in defense, not good up front, massively over-performing Expected Goals. But they've been comprehensively excellent in the Europa League.

In this analogy, Bakambu is Vardy, Soldado is Okazaki, Denis Suarez is Mahrez, Bruno Soriano is Kante, Rukavina and Mario Gaspar are both competent fullbacks who can get forward but are better in defense. But it's the playing style that's most similar: an orthodox, compact, deep 4-4-2; a reliance on quick transitions through interplay and fast passing rather than long ball; pressing from the front before settling into defensive positions; and one key player who scores the majority of their goals.

So what did Liverpool do against Leicester? And what could and should have Liverpool done better? In both matches against Leicester this season – 1-0 at home, 0-2 away – Liverpool matched Leicester's formation, basically a 4-4-1-1 in both meetings. Firmino playing off Origi then Benteke at home, with Lallana, Coutinho, Henderson, and Can in midfield; Liverpool were wasteful in attack (surprise!) but completely shut down Leicester and eventually got its goal through Firmino crossing to Benteke. Away from home, Liverpool's options were more limited, with Lallana playing off Firmino, Henderson and Milner "on the flanks," and Can and Lucas in central midfield. Liverpool were wasteful in attack (surprise!) but also didn't create enough, before falling behind to a wonder goal on the counter from Vardy – the defensive line too high and broken too easily – then quickly and somewhat unluckily conceding a second.

Which leads me to think that Liverpool will match Villarreal's formation, especially considering the dearth of available central midfielders; not only are Henderson and Can out, but Stewart's not in the Europa League squad. However, Liverpool may want to play more cautiously away from home in the first leg, more of a 4-3-3 with Allen, Lucas, and Milner behind Lallana, Coutinho, and either Firmino or Sturridge. Villarreal are dangerous in transition and dangerous through the middle, with Soldado dropping deep to create space and create chances for Bakumbu. Lucas can stay deep and drop into the defense when needed, while Allen and Milner get forward (and wide) to supplement the attacking line of three. But Lucas may also be preferred as Sakho's replacement, and I'm also not convinced that 4-3-3 attack will do enough to unsettle Villarreal. Away from home, in the first of two legs, Liverpool have to find a balance, and finding that balance isn't easy, especially considering the absences.

Regardless of personnel or formation, Liverpool must also take advantage of the flanks, not only through quick transitions of their own, but also as Villarreal often attempt to funnel the opposition's attacking play out wide. Moreno and Clyne will be crucial, especially the former, Liverpool's best crosser of the ball along with Milner. It might actually be helpful that Benteke's back, potentially able to come off the bench in the target-man role that Liverpool so infrequently use.

Meanwhile, Valencia's XI is likely to be Areola; Mario, Bailly, Ruiz, Rukavina; D Suarez, Trigueros, Bruno, Castillejo; Soldado, Bakambu. Both Sergio Asenjo and Mariano Barbosa have started in goal in this competition as well, but Areola's played the majority of matches lately. Jonathan dos Santos could be an option anywhere in midfield, starting matches on the flanks and in the middle lately. Center-back in Villarreal's only slightly concerning position, with both Musacchio and Jaume Costa out injured. Which is another reason I'd like to see Liverpool play with two up front, even if it makes the side slightly more vulnerable at the other end.

Villarreal haven't been in great form lately, winless in their last three games, scoring just once in their last three games. Rayo, despite for points to avoid relegation, out-battled Villarreal, the first goal through a rebound, conceding a quick equalizer, then getting a late winner from a cross and header in a cagey second half. Real Madrid out-possessed and outgunned Villarreal, dominating possession, not allowing Villarreal any counter-attack opportunities, and finished their own chances. And last weekend, Villarreal and Real Sociedad played out a fairly dire 0-0.

But some end-of-season malaise isn't unexpected. Villarreal are fourth – not solidly fourth, but four points and +17 goal difference clear of Celta Vigo. A drop in league form with eyes on a Europa League semifinal? That sounds vaguely familiar. Eking by Napoli, who were joint-favorites along with Dortmund at that point, was impressive, as was their dismissal of Bayer Leverkusen in the next round, before easily stomping Sparta Prague in the quarterfinals.

Cedric Bakumbu's an excellent example of Villarreal's league v European form. Their top scorer with 12 goals, he's averaging 0.59 goals per 90 in La Liga. Quite good, but not "good lord" good; Sturridge is averaging 0.90, Origi's averaging 0.68 with a lot fewer minutes, Benteke's averaging 0.49, Firmino's averaging 0.43. But Bakumbu's averaging 1.06 goals per 90 in the Europa League; with nine goals, he's got as many as Liverpool's entire likely XI tomorrow. That's "good lord" good.

For the questions about Villarreal's league position, they've definitely earned their continued participation in this competition.

But so have Liverpool, mediocre but unbeaten through the group stage and first knock-out round, then thwacking Manchester United before that comeback against the competition's then-clear favorites Dortmund. It's a surprise that both sides are here, but both sides definitely deserve to be here.

One side knows what it does, and does it well; settled, mainly injury-free, and consistent. The other is more versatile, able to change formation and style to suit both personnel available and opposition, but also more inconsistent, due to scattered injuries throughout the season and a continuing change in playing style after the midseason managerial change. When they're good, they're better than most. When they're bad, they concede two in the second half at home against Newcastle.

It's much, much easier said than done, but be good tomorrow, Liverpool. Despite the players absent, be what you've been so far in this competition.