Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Swansea

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Everton (h), Burnley (a), Leicester (a), Swansea (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (a), West Brom (h), Everton (h), Spartak Moscow (h), Brighton (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



(Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Well, that wasn't fun.

It's a return to the bad old days. Same old Liverpool. Beat the best team, then lose to the worst. And, once again, the sky is falling.

Was there a general lack of creativity, despite taking 21 shots? Sure. Especially in the first half – a lot like when these sides last met – and especially as 11 of those 21 came from outside the box, with more and more late and a surprising amount from Liverpool's defenders.

Did Liverpool need a lot more from its midfield, misplaying passes and running headlong into the packed Swansea defense time and time again before finding the front three, with not enough chances created, without the nous to unlock a triple-bolted steel door? Absolutely. Had Coutinho often been the best player in the squad in situations like this? Sigh. Yes.

Does Liverpool still sometimes stutter against teams who sit as deep as humanly possible and look for little more than to congest the middle of their defensive third. Seems like. As usual, Dan Kennett has some good observations on the subject. Open the tweets to expand the full threads, and also always read Dan's stuff.

Klopp's #LFC when >65% possession
29 W11 D12 L6
1.55 PPG
This year P6 W2 D4#NoGegenNoParty

— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) January 22, 2018

Last one from me on gegenpressing/Klopp/LFC.
I believe much of the success of gegenpressing is opportunity based.
these games vs bottom half teams saw masses of opportunity:
Bmouth 500 passes
Brighton 478
West Ham 433
Contrast with:
Everton 178
Burnley H 260
Newc 279
WBA 283

— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) January 22, 2018

Was this way too reminiscent of both Everton and West Brom, matches that Liverpool drew 1-1 and 0-0? Ugh. Except, of course, that Liverpool unnecessarily conceded against the run of play from the first shot on-target faced.

Did Liverpool again concede from a corner? Was it the second ball from a corner, with the cross in not fully cleared? You betcha.

Do I think that Alexander-Arnold should've started instead of Gomez, or that Lallana should have come on earlier – and probably for Wijnaldum rather than Oxlade-Chamberlain? I do. Am I frustrated with the lack of attacking depth on the bench to change matches like these? Very much so. But I'm also sat here in front of a computer without coaching badges or having lifted any trophies so, you know, I'm inclined to shut up and watch the professionals who've made this side a much better side until it's demonstrably not the case anymore.

Has Liverpool lost to a relegated side in each of the last three seasons? Oh, you know it. Hull in 2016-17, Newcastle in 2015-16, and Hull in 2014-15. Maybe Swansea escapes the bottom three – they're only three points behind 17th-place Stoke and six behind 10th-place Watford, after all – but it's not like we don't have precedent for similar failings.

Still, Liverpool had chances to score. Liverpool even had enough chances to win. Four clear-cut chances: Salah, over the bar from van Dijk's arrowed ball over the top in the 30th minute; Mané, slipping and shooting wide in first-half injury time; and Firmino's header off the post followed by Lallana's point-blank effort blocked in second-half injury time. Liverpool had zero clear-cut chances against Manchester City and scored four goals. Each of those four goals was a "harder" chance than any of the above four that Liverpool failed to convert yesterday.

Still, this was the same midfield that started in the 5-0 win against the same opposition a little less than a month ago.

Still, Liverpool had Coutinho for 90 minutes of the aforementioned 0-0 v West Brom which this was so reminiscent of, and he created just one chance despite 96 pass attempts. And he also played the last 12 minutes in the 1-1 draw against Everton. And in a bunch of other frustrating matches that Liverpool either lost or drew. And he's not a Liverpool player anymore so why are we even still talking about him?

Still, Liverpool hadn't conceded from a corner since Sevilla's injury-time equalizer two months ago, with 13 matches in-between. They'd faced 51 corners over that stretch. Yes, it was reminiscent of a couple of goals let in early this season and even more last season, but if you don't think Liverpool's gotten better at defending corners, you're just wrong.



One player vacated his zone, charging for a header that three Liverpool defenders seemingly had covered. And Swansea's player scored through the zone that Liverpool player left, when the header out under pressure – more from other Liverpool defenders than Swansea attackers – didn't get far enough out. And it's not one of your usual scapegoats. It's a mistake – not an out-and-out error, but still certainly not great – but it happens. And it's a mistake that Liverpool hadn't made in a while.

Still, for all the similarities with Everton and West Brom, those were just three matches during this 19-game stretch. There were the massive over-performances in attack against Huddersfield, Brighton, Spartak, Swansea (h), and City, among others. Liverpool very much out-performed its Expected Goals total during this run. Via Michael Caley's numbers, Liverpool had 43.1 Expected Goals in the last 19 games, as well as four penalties and an own goal. Liverpool actually scored 55 goals. The finishing pixie is a cruel etc etc etc.

Yes, I continue to worry. I worry about breaking down the deepest of busses. I worry that Liverpool will fall apart if Liverpool don't score early and often. I worry about Liverpool's options off the bench, I worry that Liverpool needs to replace Coutinho NOW NOW NOW rather than waiting for the preferred option, as Klopp did with van Dijk. I still very much remember Everton and West Brom. I'm still in bits every time Liverpool face a corner, even if it has gotten a lot better in the last few months.

This was Liverpool's first loss in the last 19 games. There was bound to be some sort of regression to frustration. This was just Liverpool's third league loss of the season, after City (a) and Tottenham (a), four and three months ago respectively.

Make no mistake – this sucked, this sucks, and I'm still annoyed. Make no mistake – Liverpool were bad, and Liverpool barely deserved to draw, let alone win. But this happens.

Liverpool at Swansea 01.22.18

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
5-0 Liverpool (h) 12.26.17
2-3 Swansea (h) 01.21.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 10.01.16
1-3 Swansea (a) 05.01.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-3 City (h); 2-1 Everton (h); 2-1 Burnley (a)
Swansea: 2-1 Wolves (h); 1-1 Newcastle (a); 0-0 Wolves (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 18; Firmino 10; Coutinho 7; Mané 6; Oxlade-Chamberlain 3; Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Can, Henderson, Klavan, Lovren, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Swansea: Abraham, Ayew 4; Bony 2; Clucas, Fer, Mawson, Narsingh 1

Referee: Neil Swarbrick (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Trent A-A Matip van Dijk Robertson
Alex O-C Can Wijnaldum
Salah Firmino Mané

Despite the howlings of Liverpool Twitter, Karius will keep his place. Virgil van Dijk's back. Salah has recovered from illness, but neither Klavan nor Lovren trained on Saturday. Henderson and Moreno are also back in training but tomorrow's match probably comes too soon for either.

So the questions are the same as usual. Will it be Gomez or Alexander-Arnold at right-back? Which two from Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lallana, and Wijnaldum will play ahead of Can in midfield? We haven't seen the 4-4-2 in a while, but that'd be basically the same front six, with Mané on one flank, Oxlade-Chamberlain or Lallana on the other, and both Firmino and Salah up top. We've seen elements of that formation even when Liverpool are a more orthodox 4-3-3.

Incidentally, the above guess is damned close to the XI from the last meeting, with only Mané for Coutinho (*boo hiss*), van Dijk for Klavan, and Karius for Mignolet as changes.

Bottom of the table but Swansea have won twice, drawn twice, and lost once since Carlos Carvalhal took over after the last meeting between these sides. A win and draw came against Wolves in the FA Cup, but a late win over Watford in Carvalhal's first match, a draw at Newcastle, and a loss to Tottenham where Spurs only secured victory in the 89th minute is assuredly progress compared to what came before.

This probably won't be the same match as that on Boxing Day. 5-0 is always a big ask, even for a side with the firepower of Liverpool. And that 5-0 was somewhat misleading. Liverpool were exceptionally mediocre in the first half before pulling away in the second, as against Huddersfield, Maribor, and others earlier this season. Three of Liverpool's five goals had help from Swansea players. It was a comfortable win, but it wasn't as thorough a win as the score line would suggest.

And now they've a new manager. And now, they're in a better vein of form.

I've also very little idea how Swansea will line up tomorrow. 5-3-2 against Tottenham, 4-2-2-2 at Watford, 4-4-2 at Newcastle. Rangel's still out injured, Abraham and Sanches are doubtful, and while van der Hoorn looked a concern after going off against Newcastle, but returned to training on Friday.

With van der Hoorn available, we could well see the five-at-the-back that Swansea used to limit Tottenham, but let's guess something closer to the 4-4-2 from the last couple of matches. A 4-4-2 should ask more questions of Liverpool's defense than the 4-3-3 from last time, with Ayew decent on the counter and Bony excellent at hold-up play. A narrow 4-4-2, or even 4-2-2-2, would congest the center in their half of the pitch, where Liverpool will want to play when lacking in fast break opportunities against a deep-lying defense.

So something like Fabianski; Naughton, Fernandez, Mawson, Olsson; Dyer, Ki, Clucas, Carroll; Ayew, Bony. Fer and Mesa are other options in central midfield, Routledge and Narsingh are other options on the flanks, and, heck, maybe we get McBurnie up front against, as in the last meeting. This is a guessing game at the most-informed of times, and this is not one of those times.

And while Klopp et al are assuredly more informed than I, there's still something of an unknown about this side. This Swansea won't play the same as last month's Swansea, even with similar XIs. Liverpool have crapped the bad at least once a season in five of the six seasons since Swansea's promotion – including, as I suspect you remember, at Anfield a year ago. And, unsurprisingly given the home/away divide, Liverpool have had more problems at Swansea than at home, with two one-goal wins, two draws, and two losses at the Liberty Stadium since 2011-12.

But that also shouldn't matter if Liverpool do what Liverpool remain capable of doing. This should be a match that Liverpool wins – which, of course, always seems a dangerous feeling. As against City, Liverpool have had an extended break between matches – eight days since City, which came nine days after Everton – which allows for a harder pressing, higher velocity performance, even if that style will probably fare less well against how Swansea will set up. And after this week, midweek matches start again, both in the league and then Europe next month, not to mention any possible FA Cup replays that might pop up.

Still, it goes back to Liverpool doing what Liverpool can do. Both in attack and, yes, in defense. Creating lots of opportunities, from all angles, even if the best of them come from pressing and counters. Limiting opposition chances, which seems even more likely with van Dijk at the back.

Go get your goals, go get three more points.

Visualized: Liverpool 5-0 Swansea

Previous Match Infographics: Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (a), West Brom (h), Everton (h), Spartak Moscow (h), Brighton (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



(Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Ah, yes, a routine win. Exactly what you want to see on Boxing Day. A handful of changes to the starting XI. Heights rarely hit, but Liverpool rarely troubled, and Liverpool comfortable by the final whistle.

Exactly what Liverpool needed.

Liverpool were mediocre in the first half. Somewhat sloppy in possession, and almost lazy in their shooting, with five of eight shots from outside the box, many in moments where the shooter had other options.

Coutinho's opening goal gave Liverpool the breathing space it often needs, but also seemed to set the tone for Liverpool's attacks. A bit of pressing – especially in the opening goal – but way too many attempts from distance. Not enough final third interplay. Settling for the easier rather than the intricacy we know they're capable of.

And then, just before halftime, Liverpool's best chance. Again from a strong press, this time Oxlade-Chamberlain and Salah. And pushed wide by Firmino, evoking memories of clear-cut chances not taken right around the same time in draws against Arsenal and Everton.

It had been *fine*, but it felt like Liverpool could and should be better. And needed to be better. And when that's happened, Liverpool often have been punished for not being better.

So, how would the second half play out? Like Everton? Arsenal?

Nope. It'd play out with Liverpool doing exactly what Liverpool needed to do. It'd play out as against Huddersfield and Maribor at home and Stoke, the needed opening goal eventually followed by multiple more in the second half, with Liverpool ultimately comfortable, even if not as comfortable as the scoreline would suggest.

And that's why that was exactly what Liverpool needed.

From 1-0 at halftime to 2-0 by the 52nd minute to 4-0 by the 66th to 5-0 at the final whistle. Firmino converting Coutinho's free kick, Trent Alexander-Arnold first to a half-cleared cross for his first goal in front of the Kop, Salah and Firmino taking full advantage of a horrific back pass, and Oxlade-Chamberlain simply willing and working himself a goal when Swansea again couldn't clear their box.

In the meantime, Swansea rarely had sight of Liverpool's goal. One shot on-target between Liverpool's second and the end of the game, from Abraham in the last minute of added time. Swansea had all of seven shots in total, despite going behind in the sixth minute. Sure, teams with fewer or less likely efforts have scored against Liverpool before, but this time, Liverpool kept its powder dry.

And, sure, Liverpool's final three goals all had help from Swansea players, whether in a clear error from Fer or poor clearances from Mawson and Naughton. The first as well, if we're being unkind, as Ayew dives under pressure from Firmino and rightfully doesn't get a free kick. And the other was a set play – Liverpool's 12th set play goal of the season so far. All but two corner goals at Sevilla have come in wins.

Don't care. Goals, and – not for the first time – lots of them. None for the opposition, for the eighth time in the last 14 matches. Liverpool had 12 clean sheets in the league through all of last season. Through 20 of 38 league matches, Liverpool have nine this season.

And it all happened with Liverpool nowhere near their best yesterday. All those mediocre shots in a mediocre first half. Only two of five clear-cut chances converted. No goals from Liverpool's runaway top scorer.

But a win nonetheless. A thorough win. A routine win.

Other teams' "routine" wins usually end 2-0. That's a scoreline we haven't seen since February. Liverpool's "routine" wins end 3-0, 4-0, 4-1, 5-0.

Liverpool have yet to finish a league match with two goals scored this season.

This is the 2nd time Liverpool have scored 5 goals in a league match this season.

Number of times they have scored 2 goals: still zero. pic.twitter.com/dwTK8Z7a4z

— Constantinos Chappas (@cchappas) December 26, 2017

Liverpool scored its 75th goal of the season yesterday. It's still December. Liverpool have played 29 games. For comparison, Liverpool scored 74 goals in 58 matches in 2014-15, the last full season before Klopp took over. Only three of yesterday's starting XI were with the club that season, which should emphasize how much change we've seen – how much change has been necessary – over the last three years.

Firmino's brace brings him up to 16 goals on the season. HIs previous high for Liverpool was 12, set last season. Coutinho has 12, two behind his season-high of 14 from last season, but also already with eight assists – which, again, is a high for a season since joining Liverpool. And Mo Salah, who failed to score yesterday – is still on 21 goals, a high for a Liverpool player since Suarez and Sturridge went absolutely bananas in 2013-14. Liverpool have scored three or more goals in 11 of the last 14 matches. Liverpool remain unbeaten in those 14 matches, even if there are five draws in there we'd rather not talk about.

This remains an insanely prolific team, one which scores early and often. And when they do, good things tend to happen. But even when they do, sometimes bad things still also happen – see: Watford, Sevilla, Arsenal. We were nowhere near bad things happening yesterday.

And, so, even if today wasn't Liverpool's best, it was Liverpool at its best. Doing most of the things we've lauded this season with next to none of the bad. Sure, Swansea are horrific – completely impotent up front, uncreative in midfield, organized but often still scrambling in defense, and deservedly last in the league – but it's not as if West Brom, Everton, Newcastle, etc. are or were that much better.

No, this doesn't make up for dropped points in the past. There remain valid concerns over midfield, center-back, and goalkeeper, areas which will be further tested in future matches. But we asked for Liverpool to be "more boring" after the Arsenal debacle. And this was about as boring as Liverpool get. It's just that "boring" isn't a word you can ever use with this side.

5-0 wins should never, ever feel routine, but somehow they do with this Liverpool.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-3 Swansea

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.





I don't have much to add to Saturday's match review except to reiterate how unforgivable almost all of this was. And on a weekend where Tottenham, City, and United also dropped points. Tottenham and City have the consolation of doing it to each other, United while getting a late equalizer at a ground that's difficult to go to.

They also all at least got a point. Meanwhile, Liverpool lost to the worst team in the division at home.


So, in lieu of writing a bunch about a match that you don't want to read about, here are a few charts and also some words because I really can't help myself.








Admittedly, Coutinho's injury isn't the sole catalyst, by far. There's the much busier winter schedule, defenses realizing that all they need to do is still deep then launch long to avoid the counter-press, Henderson's injury, Matip's injury then unavailability, Mané's absence in the last two league games, both Sturridge and Origi wildly off form and we're not quite sure how they fit into this system which seemingly requires Firmino up top. But it's a handy dividing line, especially as it happened right when fixtures became more frequent.

But, you say, "Well, that doesn't really matter when first the defense was bad and dumb to start the second half on Saturday, then Liverpool scored twice and looked on pace for a third, and then the defense was bad and dumb again and Klavan committed an error, and that's the match."

And there's something to that. Liverpool's points per game during this less-than-fun stretch recovered almost exactly parallel to a drop in Liverpool's goals conceded, even as shots and shots on-target allowed remained on exactly the same pace. Liverpool have been notably bad and/or dumb defensively in six or so league matches by my count this season (at Burnley, at Swansea, at Palace, at Bournemouth, at Sunderland, v Swansea), and won two, drew one, and lost three – all three of Liverpool's league losses this season.

Yet I still remain of the belief that Liverpool's defense pretty much is what it is. It is better with Matip, it will probably be better with Gomez (if only beginning next season), and Liverpool should probably look to buy another center-back this summer. No matter who plays, Liverpool will do a decent job limiting opposition shots. Sometimes, Liverpool will also commit dumb errors and/or fail on a set play. Liverpool have at least gotten better at both of those things as the season's gone on, even if that's hard to remember after matches like Saturday's.

If Liverpool's attack is firing at the start of the match, rather than only after going 0-2 down, all of this is probably a moot point. As it was when hosting Leicester, Hull, and Watford earlier this season. There were only six first-half shots, but five of them were in the Danger Zone, one of them (Can's errant header) a clear-cut chance. Five of six were off-target, the other blocked.

Liverpool's successes in the last season and a half still mainly derive from the successes of Liverpool's attack more often than not. More often than not, Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool will live and die with its attack. And right now, this ain't living.

Liverpool 2-3 Swansea

Goals:
Llorente 48' 52'
Firmino 55' 69'
Sigurðsson 74'

2017 remains an uncontrollable, inexhaustible garbage fire.

We got every single bit of Bad Liverpool, in separate phases. A dire attack against nine defenders for the entire first half, as in almost every 2017 match so far. Dumb and avoidable concessions from a corner then cross in quick succession after halftime. Liverpool finally starting to play after going 0-2 down and actual hope with two goals in 14 minutes from Firmino to equalize, but then an unlikely Swansea winner five minutes later on a counter, unable to stop the attack before a Liverpool player accidentally set up the goalscorer.

Three goals conceded from three shots on target. Each one the type of goal that Liverpool had been prone to conceding but had been better about not conceding lately: the second ball from a corner, a towering header over (multiple) defenders, and both stupid and unlucky on the counter-attack when vainly and fruitlessly for the go-ahead goal.

Against the bottom side in the league. Who hadn't scored three goals away from home in the league all season. Who'd conceded three or more goals in 11 of 21 league matches this season. Who'd lost six of their last seven games by a 20-4 margin. Who'd never won at Anfield. Ever. For Liverpool's first loss at Anfield in 370 days.

It'd be unbelievable if it weren't, you know, Liverpool.

There is literally zero consolation here. There are almost no positives except for Firmino's almost single-handed fight-back, which is muted by all the evil which came before and after.

It's been hidden by the horrific results and three different managers, but Swansea had shown at least bits of this potential before. The reverse fixture was one of Liverpool's worst performances of the season, only a Liverpool win because of exceptionally bad Swansea finishing (which was not the case today) and more single-handed Firmino heroics in scoring the equalizer and earning the penalty winner. 4-0 at Arsenal is one of those results which doesn't do the match justice, Swansea the better side until Giroud's goal from a fortunate deflection, then proceeding to collapse, giving Arsenal two own goals then a late defensive error.

The first goal matters. As it did today.

Swansea's plan worked better than Liverpool's plan. A side that'd been free-flowing before Coutinho's injury and before Liverpool had to play two matches per week almost every week for the last two months once again wasn't. Nearly every Swansea player sat in Swansea's half for the entire first half. Four defenders, three central midfielders, and two very deep wingers blocked off pretty much everything in the final third, coupled with an incredible performance from Llorente on Henderson, closing down Liverpool's necessary metronome at every opportunity.

And it led to the first time this season that Liverpool's been held without a shot on-target in a first half at Anfield this season. The only other times it's happened this season were the 1-0 win at Everton and (*drum roll*) 2-1 win at Swansea.

Then that second half happened. And, while Llorente was boss and thoroughly punished Liverpool, it was much more about what Liverpool both did and failed to do than what Swansea did.

Swansea's first attack of the half, which only resulted in a corner because Lovren idiotically tried to head a hopeful cross over the lone attacker back to Mignolet and completely failed. Then, Lovren lost Fernandez on the ball in, and Swansea reacted quicker than Liverpool to the scramble. Four minutes later, Swansea break, literally from a failed Liverpool attack because Coutinho tried to center to Lallana instead of shooting from inside the box and put it two yards behind him. Nice interplay from new signings Carroll and Olsson, then Carroll's cross to Llorente, who's surrounded by three Liverpool defenders (Milner, Wijnaldum, Klavan, responsible in that order). Llorente wins easily.

0-2 down, 52 minutes gone, and hey, welcome to the match Liverpool thank you for showing up. Liverpool's 16th cross of the match finally leads to something: good from Milner and even better from Firmino to get in front of Olsson and head past Fabianski. 14 minutes later, even better from Firmino, good control from Wijnaldum to get into space on the left but a lofted, hopeful cross in. But Firmino's chest control to take away two defenders and left-footer on the half-volley and woof.

2-2 against the bottom side in the league who'd conceded that many goals, and at Anfield. 25 or so minutes to play. One point is the absolute minimum and three should be likely, no matter how the first 55 minutes went.

Ha.

Less than five minutes later, Liverpool have basically everyone forward, but the attack breaks down and Fabianski claims. A hopeful kick long. Swansea win the second ball, then Llorente holds up play up excellently to allow attackers to get forward. Fer gets away from two, Llorente finds space in front of Lovren to set up Carroll, and somehow Klavan's tackle falls perfectly for a wide open Sigurðsson. Disappointing And Unlucky: The Liverpool Story. Throwing Away Points In The Last 20 Minutes of Matches: The Liverpool Story.

And from there, toilet. Liverpool back to being unable to break Swansea down, the lone noteworthy chances in quick succession from Lallana, first a lucky ricochet deflected onto the bar then a header over. Substitutions that didn't help Liverpool, and probably made them worse.

First, Sturridge for Coutinho – inoffensive rather than troublesome, Sturridge unable to make a difference but not really changing proceedings in either direction, with Coutinho only able to complete 56 minutes probably what bothers me most. Then, Origi for Can, planned before Liverpool's equalizer but still gone through with after scoring. That unbalanced Liverpool. Maybe it doesn't help, maybe it does, but having Can as at least another body in midfield – no matter how mediocre (at best) he was today – makes stopping Swansea's third at least slightly more likely. Origi's total contribution probably equalled Sturridge – the former put a tame shot on-target, the latter created the chance for Lallana's header, and that's about it from either – but the effect was to further unbalance a side that had actually started to get its act together. This is not the first time that's happened (*glares at the Bournemouth result again*).

2017 has started in the worst possible manner. And Liverpool are in deep, deep trouble. Despite results like today's (and Burnley, and Bournemouth, and Sunderland, and ...), Liverpool remain a reasonably good side, at least usually – in goals scored, chances created, and shots allowed. Much better than previous seasons. Analytics still really like this side, and they also pass the eye test more often than not, even without Mané or Coutinho, which admittedly makes life that much harder.

Reasonably good is not good enough this season. Nowhere near good enough. Not with the rest of the Top 6 playing like they are. Liverpool could be fifth by the end of the day, just two points ahead of sixth, which is currently a side they were ten points ahead of less than two months ago. Manchester City is currently the only side in that group stuttering as Liverpool's stuttered – the other four have been excellent – and you look at City's squad then Liverpool's and it's not hard to wonder who has a better shot of fixing things quicker.

There are 16 matches left in this league campaign. Liverpool will have to fight like hell, and dramatically improve, to even remain in the Champions League places.

Liverpool v Swansea 01.21.17

7:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 10.01.16
1-3 Swansea (a) 05.01.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 03.16.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Plymouth Argyle (a); 1-1 United (a); 0-1 Southampton (a)
Swansea: 0-4 Arsenal (h); 0-2 Hull (a); 2-1 Crystal Palace (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Lallana 7; Firmino, Milner 6; Coutinho 5; Origi 4; Can 3; Lovren, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Swansea: Fer, Llorente 6; Sigurðsson 5; Routledge 2; Baston, Maison, Rangel, van der Hoorn 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Klavan Milner
Can Henderson Wijnaldum
Lallana Firmino Coutinho

We're almost back to full-strength Liverpool. It's very much needed.

I'm annoyed to say, and it's probably reactionary given how and who Liverpool have played recently, but neither Sturridge nor Origi have done enough in recent weeks to get another start now that almost everyone's fit.

As of Klopp's press conference an hour ago, FIFA hadn't been in touch about Joël Matip. Which has caught everyone by surprise, I know. There's still a few hours before close of business but, knowing FIFA, chances are Liverpool are without him for no good reason again.

There's better news on Nat Clyne, back in full training for the first time since his rib injury. Which probably makes him 50-50 or so for tomorrow. Alexander-Arnold could deputize again, growing into the game after a tough start at United and one of Liverpool's better players (especially the best defender) once Plymouth needed to attack on Wednesday. But if Clyne's even close to fit enough, Clyne will play, as per usual.

Otherwise, everyone's available except Sadio Mané, at the African Cup of Nations and scoring for fun, having tallied in both of Senegal's matches so far. Most importantly, both Coutinho and Henderson are back, the former in line for his first league start since injury two months ago.

Liverpool have desperately missed both, especially Coutinho. Yes, they've already featured in a couple of games, but building up match fitness takes time, especially in the case of a player who missed two months. You're probably sick of me writing it, but Liverpool are still yet to score an open play goal in 2017, having tallied from three corners and the penalty spot in the five games so far. Liverpool's lone win in those five games came on Wednesday, that narrow 1-0 victory at League Two Plymouth Argyle, a match that would've gone to extra time had Jake Jervis' 75th-minute set play clear-cut chance gone inside rather than onto the post.

We need Liverpool to be a lot better than they've been since the start of the month.

Meanwhile, Swansea make no sense. They should not be this bad. They should not be in such disarray.

Gylfi Sigurðsson's great. Ki Sung-yueng and Jack Cork are competent midfielders; Routledge, Dyer, and Fer are competent attackers who've drifted around the league for years, valuable players in admittedly mediocre-to-bad teams. Both Amat and Fernandez have stifled Liverpool attackers in previous contests. Llorente's still scoring, at age 31 in his first Premiership season. Borja Baston is the club's record signing and he's started all of four league matches.

They're on their third manager of the season – this'll be Paul Clement's third match; they're yet to win or draw and yet to score – and the fourth if you count Alan Curtis' two games as caretaker.

They've conceded 49 goals in 21 league matches, which is near-record pace. They've conceded three goals in seven matches, four goals in three matches, and five goals in one. They've conceded 8.2% of all the Premier League goals scored this season.

They've lost six of their last seven matches, six in the league and one in the FA Cup, outscored 20-4 in those seven matches.

And yet, they're only two points from safety, and two rather than one solely because of goal difference, because Palace, Hull, and Sunderland have been nearly as bad.

And yet, they gave Liverpool an incredibly difficult time in the reverse fixture last October, unlucky to not get at least a point after honest-to-goodness dominating the first half and then missing a clear-cut chance to equalize in second-half injury time.

And yet, in Paul Clement's first league match as manager last weekend, they were actually good against Arsenal until they very much weren't, the better side until conceding against the run of play and then blown away 4-0. After the 37th-minute opener, they gave Arsenal two own goals and an Routledge error leading to the fourth.

Swansea make no sense.

And given that Swansea make no sense, I'm at a loss to guess the XI. Chances are it won't be what I'd pick without context, knowing most of the players but not especially aware of form or relation to teammates or manager.

Chances are, it'll look like the team that lost against Arsenal, but with one or two changes from a manager still getting to know his squad. Something like Fabianski; Naughton, Fernandez, Mawson, Olsson; Cork, Carroll; Sigurðsson, Fer, Routledge; Llorente. Both Carroll and Olsson are new signings, the former in hopes of fixing what's been a bafflingly bad midfield (Leon Britton doesn't even make the match day squad anymore), the latter adding pace to a stolid back-line and depth with perma-fixture Neil Taylor out for an extended spell. Barrow, Montero, and Narsingh join Taylor on the injury list.

There's seemingly two ways this goes. Ideally, a nearly full-strength Liverpool finds its form – specifically its goalscoring form – against not good opposition at Anfield, and we get something in the vein of 5-1 Hull or 6-1 Watford. Even with Liverpool struggling for goals and Swansea likely to be better than they have been, it's possible, considering Swansea's form and that it's at Anfield. But – and maybe it's my perpetual pessimism – just as likely is a Swansea revival, able to do what Sunderland, Plymouth, and others have done to Liverpool lately, as Liverpool most notably continue to stutter in front of goal, better at the back in recent weeks but still prone to calamity.

How it goes is up to Liverpool.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Swansea

Previous Match Infographics: Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.


That could and probably should have gone a lot worse. But it didn't. But Liverpool won.

Whether that's reassuring or a sign of imminent disaster depends on your weltanschauung.

Over the last year, if Klopp's Liverpool doesn't score in the first half, Klopp's Liverpool are often in trouble. As said in Saturday's match review, that had happened in 16 games prior to this weekend; Liverpool won just four, drawing five and losing seven. And Liverpool were level at 0-0 in three of those four wins, eking out 1-0 victories; the only comeback was 2-1 at Crystal Palace thanks to Benteke's very late and slightly dubious penalty. Liverpool had failed to score in the first half just once this season, and I suspect you still remember the 0-2 loss at Burnley.

Liverpool didn't even put a shot on-target in the first half on Saturday.

It's not as if Klopp's Liverpool necessarily come out guns blazing – Liverpool have actually scored the lowest percentage of goals in the first 15 minutes under Klopp compared to the previous four Liverpool managers – but they tend to score a lot between the 16th and 45th minutes, 38% of all goals scored since Klopp became manager.

Just look at the first goal in the games so far this season:

- Arsenal: 45'
- Burton Albion: 15'
- Tottenham: 43'
- Leicester: 13'
- Chelsea: 17'
- Derby: 24'
- Hull: 17'

Win, win, draw, win, win, win, win. News flash: early Liverpool goals are often good things, and often lead to more.

Meanwhile, Liverpool have conceded a first-half opening goal in nine of Klopp's 36 league matches prior to Saturday. They came back to beat Chelsea (a) and Arsenal (a), drew with Chelsea (h) and West Brom (a), and lost to Palace (h), Watford (a), West Ham (h), Swansea (a), and Burnley (a).

There's a pretty clear distinction between classes of opposition. Liverpool can come back against the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal, but Liverpool have usually been absolutely boned when conceding early against the likes of Watford, West Ham, Burnley.

And the likes of Swansea, which we saw in last season's 1-3 loss, but which was admittedly with a radically different and under-strength XI. Still, the pattern held.

It didn't hold on Saturday.

Swansea certainly started the better side. They should have opened the scoring in the fifth minute. They did open the scoring in the eighth. Swansea had four clear-cut in the first 26 minutes, somehow only converting one (two missed, both headers, and one saved).

Through the first six league matches of the season, Liverpool had allowed just four clear-cut chances combined: one at Arsenal, two v Leicester, and one at Chelsea.

The most clear-cut chances that Liverpool had previously allowed in a match under Klopp was three, in three different matches last season: 0-3 at Watford, 3-3 v Arsenal, and 1-3 at Swansea. Since 2012-13, Liverpool had allowed four clear-cut chances in four matches: 1-6 at Stoke in 2014-15, 3-2 at QPR in 2014-15 (lol QPR), 1-3 at Southampton in 2012-13, and 1-2 at United in 2012-13. And that's it.

Five clear-cut chances is an egregious amount even for "free-scoring" Liverpool. They've had four or more clear-cut chances in just three league matches under Klopp: 4-1 at Manchester City, 4-1 v Leicester, and 5-1 v Hull. That Swansea created that many chances that good and scored just once is a bit bonkers.

All four of Swansea's first-half big chances came from crosses, as did the fifth in second-half added time, which could have easily spoiled Liverpool's comeback. Two of the early four came from set plays.

How did they happen?

5' - Loss of Liverpool possession on Matip's hopeful cross-field pass leads to a counter down Liverpool's left
8' - Lallana dispossessed in final third leads to counter leads to corner
21' - Swansea possession with Liverpool down to 10 men after Lallana's injury, Sigurðsson's chipped cross coming from the area where Lallana plays
26' - Henderson fouls Cork when Swansea attack from a long header out of defense

To recap: four of four from crosses, three of four from quick transitions from Swansea's half, two of four from set plays. Four clear-cut chances from five shots in total. Liverpool still don't allow a lot of chances, but Liverpool still allow high-value chances.

In case you were wondering where Liverpool still have issues. In case you somehow weren't already aware.

So it should have been game over within half an hour. It should have been an even clearer repeat of 0-2 Burnley, with Liverpool needing a much more difficult comeback. Liverpool were very, very lucky it wasn't. And that luck is a big reason why Francesco Guidolin's out of a job this morning.

But, by hook and by crook, Liverpool held on for those first 30 minutes. Liverpool took 10 or so minutes to settle after Sturridge's introduction, adjusting to the new shape. From five Swansea shots in the first 26 minutes to just three for the rest of the match: Sigurðsson's deep free kick saved in the 44th, Fulton's header blocked in the 72nd, and van der Hoorn late late late chance. From just one Liverpool shot in the first 26 minutes (Lallana from distance not close) to 17 in the subsequent 65.

Still, it ain't as if Liverpool were any great shakes, at least from open play. Swansea still blocked half of Liverpool's total shots. Six of Liverpool's 10 in-box shots were blocked, six of Liverpool's 10 in-box shots came from set plays or the penalty.

And Liverpool's two clear-cut chances came from a set play and a penalty. Thankfully, and in contrast to Swansea, Liverpool took advantage of both of them.

It was just Liverpool's second headed goal of the season, after Firmino's against Burton Albion. It was just Liverpool's third free kick goal, after Coutinho's direct blast at Arsenal and Lovren's back post strike at Chelsea. But it was Liverpool's fourth penalty of the season, through just seven games.

Liverpool won just two penalties in last season's league campaign: Ibe's cross handled by Neil Taylor against Swansea and Benteke brought down at Crystal Palace. And that's it.

This season, Firmino has twice been brought down in the box, Sturridge brought down once, and Elmohamady handled Coutinho's goal-bound effort. It's early, small sample size, random variance, etc but this seems an example of Liverpool's better movement in the final third and increased willingness to get into the box and do something in said box.

That's something.

Basically, the takeaways are easy to pick out. It's reassuring that Liverpool had the fortitude to come back despite all the evil early on, with similar starts leading to awful results in the past. It's reassuring that Liverpool did it despite the long-standing precedent of not being able to do it often enough in this sort of fixture. It's reassuring that Liverpool did it away from home, at a ground where they've historically suffered, and despite needing to change shape and tactics after 20 minutes due to an injury to one of Liverpool's best players so far this season.

But Liverpool still need to do better. Liverpool still need to start better away from home in "winnable" matches; Liverpool still need to defend better against crosses, set plays, and quick transitions. Liverpool still struggle and concede chances when opposition forwards press in Liverpool's half. Liverpool still struggle against deep defenses in open play, even if slightly less than than they have in the past.

Liverpool could have lost, Liverpool probably should have drawn, but Liverpool won.

And we've seen similar to that before as well. Barely October and beginning to draw parallels with 2013-14 probably isn't clever, but we saw this match a few times that season, most notably 2-0 v Hull (needing two set plays to break down a side that embarrassed Liverpool earlier in the season) and 2-1 at West Ham (Gerrard scoring two penalties, Liverpool conceding from a corner to make it nervous).

Win when you don't play well. Survive and come back in a difficult away match. By any means necessary, take the points, learn from it and move on. And then do better next time.

Liverpool 2-1 Swansea

Goals:
Fer 8'
Firmino 54'
Milner 84' (pen)

Phew.

Let's get one thing clear. That was bad. The first half was, no exaggeration, as bad a half as we've seen since Klopp became manager. Liverpool should have been behind by much more than a single goal. It felt like, and was almost the scoreline of, the we're-still-talking-about-it Burnley loss.

But Liverpool won. And that Liverpool won – despite going a goal down early, despite conceding from yet another set play, despite losing Lallana to injury in the 20th minute, despite being behind at halftime, despite failing to put a single shot (from all of four in total) on target in the first half, in one of those much-discussed pitfall away matches – is almost more reassuring than if Liverpool had comfortably won 4-1. Almost.

Just like at Burnley, it started in the worst possible manner. Swansea should have taken the lead three minutes before they did: their first attack, their first of four clear-cut chances, but Borja's header between the center-backs over. Then, their first corner, their first shot on-target, their first goal: Borja beating Clyne at the back post, Lovren deflecting the flick-on to Fer, open for the tap-in. At that point, Karius had faced three corners and two shots on-target and Liverpool had conceded two goals. It's hard to blame him for either.

And there was little response from Liverpool, one long-range not-close shot from Lallana in the ninth minute the sum of Liverpool's attack until the 35th minute. In between, Lallana groin injury saw him replaced by Sturridge, with Coutinho moving into midfield, while Swansea had two more clear-cut chances: Cork tamely hit a deep cross from close range at Karius, while Borja (offside but not called) headed wide when open on another set play.

Liverpool's two decent attacks in the final ten minutes of the half – better than the first 35 at least! – were both blocked by Amat. Again, just like Burnley, Swansea pressed Liverpool into problems, Swansea defended brilliantly, and Swansea had the lead. Even more deservedly than Burnley did.

To put it bluntly, Liverpool have been terrible when they've failed to score in the first half since Klopp became manager. It had happened 16 times in the league. Liverpool had won just four – 1-0 v Swansea, 1-0 v Leicester, 1-0 at Sunderland, and 2-1 at Crystal Palace – drawing five and losing seven. Other than the Palace hilarity, Liverpool needed to keep a clean sheet to do it. Liverpool haven't yet kept a clean sheet in the league this season. Liverpool have kept just one clean sheet away from home in the league in 2016, a 6-0 win at indescribably bad Aston Villa.

Most of Liverpool's goals under Klopp, in contrast to the last few managers, have come in the first half. Liverpool often need to score early to click into gear. Or else.

Not today, Satan.

Because Liverpool responded, without making personnel changes. Liverpool finally put a shot on-target three minutes into the half, Liverpool finally scored nine minutes into the half. As against Arsenal, as against Tottenham (albeit a penalty), as against Chelsea, Liverpool needed a set play goal to break through the wall.

It was all down to the second phase. Coutinho put the free kick into the wall but every attacker took up a clever position as Henderson regrouped, a perfect chip over beating Swansea's broken line, Firmino in acres of space to direct a header past Swansea. Back to even. Time to go.

Between the 46th and 70th minutes, Liverpool took nine shots to Swansea's none, with both Coutinho and Sturridge having excellent opportunities to give Liverpool the lead, both narrowly wide. That Liverpool failed to put the pressure to use annoyed, but it truly seemed a matter of time before the second.

But then things began to ebb, and again, a fair bit of credit goes to Swansea. Guidolin made three changes between the 62nd and 72nd minutes – Barrow for Routledge, Ki for Britton, and Fulton for Fer. Swansea had clearly tired, pressing and pushing in the first half and unable to keep up with Liverpool in the second. But then they were able to keep up. Then they were able to press. For ten minutes, Liverpool were unable to control the game, unable to take a shot, and nearly gave the game away when hassled into a mistake, with Matip necessarily blocking the cross with Liverpool outnumbered in the defensive third, followed by Karius completely missing the corner but Swansea unable to get a player on it.

Still, Liverpool preserved. And Liverpool were rewarded for it, coupled with Swansea defending like Liverpool are prone to. Otherwise known as "cue Yakety Sax." A misplayed clearance by Barrow, Rangel unable to hold off Firmino, then tackling Firmino – not a football tackle but an American football tackle – with Liverpool duly awarded its fourth spot kick so far this season. Which Milner unfailingly converted.

Finally, a marginally undeserved lead, but a lead nonetheless. By hook or by crook, Liverpool on pace to win a match that could have been out of sight after half an hour. Liverpool able to sit back, smother, and counter, Coutinho and Origi missing chances and an almost own goal.

But Liverpool also almost gave it away, in the last minute of the match, under unnecessary pressure, because Liverpool, Rangel's deep cross finding an unmarked van der Hoorn when Karius didn't come, a hesitation and mis-kick thankfully trickling wide.

So yeah, Liverpool weren't good. And I should care, but I don't really care. Because Liverpool won. Because Liverpool did enough in the second half, and Swansea couldn't quite do enough in the first half. Because Liverpool won away at a bottom half side after conceding first for the first time since the aforementioned Palace match last March. Because Liverpool did what they weren't able to do against Burnley, a match we're going to keep mentioning until Liverpool get results more like today's than six weeks ago.

Because we get to look past this and plan for better over the next 16 days (thanks, unnecessary international break!) rather than dwelling on another painful setback. Rather than mad and moaning and complaining and criticizing, we'll see another Liverpool win, three more points, and Liverpool in a very-early-don't-pay-too-much-attention-don't-talk-about-it top four place.

Beat the dross, no matter how, win the league. By hook or by crook, dross beaten. That's all that matters.

Liverpool at Swansea 10.01.16

7:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-3 Swansea (a) 05.01.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 03.16.15
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.29.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-1 Hull (h); 3-0 Derby (a); 2-1 Chelsea (a)
Swansea: 1-3 City (h); 1-2 City (h); 0-1 Southampton (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Coutinho, Lallana, Mané, Milner 3; Firmino 2; Henderson, Lovren 1
Swansea: Fer 3; Llorente, Sigurðsson 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Lallana Henderson Wijnaldum
Mané Firmino Coutinho

Guessing Liverpool's line-up has become somewhat simple. Yes, there's competition for places. Yes, there are players who could seemingly slot right in. But, as you may have noticed, Liverpool are playing quite well, and once again, the only question seems whether or not there will be a place for Daniel Sturridge. Well, as long as there are no illnesses or black eyes or controversies about doing stupid things while driving and filming it for the club's website, right Dejan?

It's weird to see Liverpool's "best XI" without a healthy Sturridge. I'm still not entirely convinced that Liverpool wouldn't be better with him starting in these matches away from home against a deep-lying defense; sure, Liverpool did just fine carving open Hull, but that was at Anfield. This is a new season, but I still very much remember the last. That Origi will probably be absent with a minor foot injury also makes it more likely Sturridge left on the bench, potentially needed as a game-changing attacker.

Otherwise, same as. After six games, we know what Klopp's preferred XI looks like and it's humming along nicely.

Meanwhile, Swansea certainly haven't had the best start to the season. They're winless in the last five. They've conceded at least once in every match since opening day. There's already talk of Bob Bradley, of all people, replacing Guidolin. You know, the caretaker manager from last January who was given a permanent deal just a couple of months ago. Maybe that leads to Guidolin and his side bursting out of the gates, fighting to save the manager's job. Or maybe it leads to players not all that bothered and more of the same disappointment. Here's hoping for the latter, obviously.

However, in Swansea's defense, they haven't been truly bad despite said results and league position. Two of those losses were narrow defeats to Leicester and Southampton. They drew against Chelsea, coming back from a deficit to take a 2-1 lead before Costa's late equalizer. Swansea it kept it reasonably close against Manchester City in both recent matches, including equalizing four minutes after City opened the scoring in the league meeting, until conceding twice in the last 25 minutes.

Swansea's line-up also seems fairly safe to predict. Fabianski; Rangel, Amat, van der Hoorn, Naughton; Cork, Britton; Routledge, Fer, Sigurðsson; Llorente. Both Fernandez and Dyer are out through injury; it'll be either van der Hoorn or Kingsley taking up Fernandez's usual role in defense. Swansea started with three at the back against Chelsea, but changed before halftime, prompting the renaissance which earned them a point. Jefferson Montero's an option out wide, Ki's an option in midfield, and both Barrow or Borja are options up front. Borja is Swansea's record signing but has been limited to just two substitute appearances thanks to a thigh issue. If Borja's fit enough to start, 4-4-2 seems a possibility, with Britton the most likely left out.

Liverpool fans being Liverpool fans, I'll still be able to find the clouds behind all these silver linings. And while Hull went a long way towards assuaging concerns about Liverpool's problems against the bottom half, I can't help but remind that was at Anfield rather than away. Away matches remain a concern, as against Burnley this season, as against Watford, Newcastle, etc last season.

And it doesn't help that Liverpool have won at Swansea just once since their promotion in 2011-12 – a narrow 1-0 win in 2014-15 – with two draws and two losses in the other matches. Sure, last season doesn't really count: a much-changed XI with Liverpool focused on the Europa League, including a very raw, very young, and very over-run midfield. That won't be Liverpool tomorrow. But Liverpool second best at the start, Liverpool conceding early, and Liverpool unable to come back, well, those are Liverpools we've seen before.

It's simply the next stop on the "correct the long-standing faults, prove this is a better team, and prove you're top-four and/or title contenders" tour. Do what you've done before (excepting, yes, that one match we keep harping on), and it'll be a successful one.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-3 Swansea

Previous Match Infographics: Villarreal (a),Newcastle (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


That was just a whole lot of bad. Bad in defense (*glares at Martin Skrtel*), bad in midfield, and bad in attack, against opposition that Liverpool had beaten in the last five meetings. Liverpool's injuries have caught up with the side, Liverpool's focus on the Europa League has caught up with the side.

Liverpool's -7 shot differential was, by far, their largest negative differential in a league match this season. Liverpool's opponent has taken more shots than Liverpool just six times this campaign: Arsenal away (-4), United away (-1), Everton away (-1), Tottenham away (-1), Tottenham home (-3), and now Swansea away (-7). One of these teams is not like the others.

Liverpool's -1.2 xG differential (by Michael Caley's numbers) was, by far, their largest negative differential in either a league or European match this season. The previous low was -0.8, against Arsenal (h) under Rodgers and Leicester (a) under Klopp.

Liverpool's 11 shots were the joint-fewest in a league match (along with Villa away and City at home, matches where Liverpool scored early and often and didn't need to keep shooting) since the 0-2 loss at Newcastle back in December, where Liverpool took just 10.

But there's not a lot that Liverpool's attackers can do when Liverpool's defenders and midfielders constantly lose possession or misplace passes. Liverpool couldn't convert their marginal edge in possession into chances at any time in the match, whether level, behind by just a goal, or down to ten men. It's probably not coincidence that Swansea made 10 interceptions and 10 tackles in Liverpool's half yesterday.

Not only did Swansea register a bunch more shots than Liverpool, they were a bunch of better shots as well. Eight of Liverpool's 11 came from outside the box, 11 of Swansea's 18 came from inside the box. Two of Liverpool's three shots from inside the box came from corners, including the goal, with the other Sturridge's half-chance awkward volley in the 10th minute. One open play shot in the box, off-target, in 90 minutes. Sigh.

Meanwhile, Swansea put nine of 18 on-target (50%), Liverpool put three of 11 (27%). If not for Danny Ward's six saves, that scoreline looks even worse. This was just the second time this season that Liverpool allowed more than five shots on-target in a league match, after the 0-2 loss at West Ham where the home side took ten.

Liverpool allowed their opponent three clear-cut chances for just the third time in the league this season, along with Watford (a) and Arsenal (h), matches which took place in December and January respectively.

And, to cap it all off, this was the first time that Swansea scored three goals in a league match this season. They'd scored two goals in just 11 of the 35 matches before yesterday, with six of those coming before the end of November. The last time Swansea scored two goals at home was January 13 against Sunderland. 16 matches earlier.

Those Swansea goals came from a set play; an inability to clear and subsequent loss of possession in Liverpool's half coupled with Skrtel backing off the goalscorer; and a Yakety Sax comedy of errors barely two minutes after Liverpool almost kinda got themselves back into the game, starting from another loss of possession in Liverpool's half. It was a trilogy of failures, all different but all very Liverpool. Probably not coincidentally, Skrtel and Lucas featured heavily in Swansea's second and third.

This, along with maybe Watford away, was arguably Liverpool worst performance and result of the season, assuredly Liverpool's worst over the last few months. I'm hoping that it's an aberration: an under-strength, incredibly young, makeshift line-up in a less-than-meaningful league match played away from home in awful conditions. I'm hoping that it's forgettable. I'm hoping we see a very different performance and very different result in four days. A rainy, cold, end-of-season day in South Wales that's immediately gone from the memory if Liverpool win on Thursday.

But I'm not very hopeful considering what we've seen from Liverpool over the last two and a half matches.

Liverpool 1-3 Swansea

Goals:
Ayew 20' 67'
Cork 33'
Benteke 65'

A central midfield with a combined five league starts and combined age of 41 with Martin Skrtel behind them. What could possibly go wrong?

Oh.

Liverpool were very, very bad today. Honestly, there's not much more to be said. We've been spoiled by the success against Stoke and Bournemouth with these changed sides – and, obviously, to a much lesser extent against Newcastle, at least in the first half – but this was closer to what I initially feared. Swansea overran Liverpool's inexperienced midfield, Skrtel Skrtel'd, and everyone else looked like they'd rather be anywhere else besides cold and drenched in South Wales.

Liverpool looked like a much-changed away side that knows it's probably finishing seventh and nothing but the Europa League matters, Swansea looked like a home side that knows it needs a win to mathematically prevent relegation. So be it.

Swansea had a handful of open play chances before the opener, but it's fitting that opener came from a set play. Sturridge doesn't track Ayew's run towards the six-yard box (maybe it's zonal and he's not supposed to?), Skrtel and Lovren get their positioning wrong, and there's nothing Ward can do. It's the 19th set play goal that Liverpool have conceded in all competitions, the 14th in the league. It's the danger of defending set plays with a heavily changed line-up. It's the Cancer-AIDS that seems to infect Liverpool's defending every time that Skrtel and Lovren play together.

Danny Ward tried to keep Liverpool in the game, with an excellent save then punch on Cork then Ayew in the 26th, but there was again nothing he could do in the 33rd – Cork's lovely curler after out-muscling Coutinho far too easily on a midfield duel, with Skrtel hilariously backing off into nowhere as Cork prepared to shoot. Liverpool's defense and midfield deserved every inch of the two-goal deficit.

Meanwhile, Liverpool couldn't create a damned thing at the other end, consistently losing possession when transitioning from midfield to attack, whether through intercepted passes, players caught in possession, or Ibe, Ojo, or Coutinho's unsuccessful dribbles. Liverpool were limited to a marginal penalty shout for Coutinho in the 22nd (just after Swansea's first) and Ojo's lovely long throughball for Sturridge in the 36th (just after Swansea's second), chipped wide first time from outside the box.

Halftime couldn't come quick enough, and things obviously had to change. Lucas replaced the sadly-very-out-of-his-depth Chirivella while Benteke came on Coutinho, maybe still ill but also nowhere near as effective in the #10 role as he's been on the left, even considering the shenanigans going on behind him. And the changes made Liverpool better, with Swansea probably slightly complacent, as Liverpool were against Southampton and Newcastle in recent weeks.

Lucas helped to solidify midfield, Benteke gave Liverpool an outlet to be more direct and gave Sturridge someone to play off of. But Liverpool couldn't have been much worse than in the first half, and the switch to 4-4-2 didn't pay dividends for 20 minutes, until Benteke headed in Ojo's corner from close range with Fabianski pinned on his line.

Hey, maybe game on? A comeback like the few that Liverpool have allowed too often this season?

Just when you thought Benteke's goal gave Liverpool a chance, this. All of this.

Hello and welcome to my today's series 'Swansea's Goal Looks Better With Random Music On'. Here's our first entry! pic.twitter.com/kMl4PNohDt

— Paul (@Kolology) May 1, 2016

Remarkable. Lucas' dalliance is by far the most egregious offense, setting the whole sequence in motion, while Skrtel's diving tackle into thin air isn't far behind, but Skrtel then Lovren leaping for headers they weren't even close to will be massively underrated. Oh, and Ojo was probably fouled, but you can't spoil great comedy.

That was that, and that was especially that when Brad Smith picked up a second yellow nine minutes later with Swansea about to counter off of a failed Liverpool corner. At least Liverpool didn't concede any more? At least no one got hurt? At least we got further proof that Skrtel should be shot into the sun? Sigh.

This clearly isn't ideal preparation for Villarreal on Thursday. At least only two or three of the players on the pitch at the final whistle should feature then. Hopefully, one of those is Sturridge, who played 90 minutes but should still be in contention for another start.

We saw too many disappointing individual performances, and failings and failures that we've seen before. Set plays, multiple-goal away losses, attacking transitions, Skrtel, etc. But it was a 12pm game in rainy South Wales after playing Thursday evening with a very unfamiliar XI and the league position all but meaningless at this point. Whatever.

It's a very, very different story if Liverpool fail on Thursday, though.

Liverpool at Swansea 05.01.16

7am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 03.16.15
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.29.14
2-1 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.28.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Villarreal (a); 2-2 Newcastle (h); 4-0 Everton (h)
Swansea: 0-4 Leicester (a); 0-3 Newcastle (a); 1-0 Chelsea (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 9; Coutinho, Sturridge 8; Benteke 7; Milner, Origi 5; Lallana 4; Henderson, Ings 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Moreno, Sakho, Skrtel, Toure 1
Swansea: Sigurðsson 11; A Ayew 8; Gomis 5; Paloschi, Williams 2; Barrow, Fernandez, Ki SY, Routledge, Shelvey 1

Referee: Roger East

Guess at a line-up:
Ward
Flanagan Skrtel Lovren Smith
Milner Stewart
Ojo Lallana Ibe
Sturridge

Another league match sandwiched between vastly more important European contests, another match where we'll see heavy rotation but little clue exactly who will be playing in what formation.

Sturridge is definitely starting up front, Stewart's definitely starting in midfield, Ward's definitely starting in goal, at least one of Ojo and Ibe (and probably both) are starting on the flanks, Smith and either Randall or Flanagan are probably starting at full-back, Skrtel's probably (sigh) starting in central defense. From there, it's a matter of who Klopp trusts to be able to play three matches in a week and what formation best matches Swansea's 4-2-3-1.

Central defense? Who's better able to play three times in seven days: Lovren, Toure, or Lucas? Will Lucas even play next Thursday, in midfield or central defense?

Full-back? Flanagan probably won't start, considering this article on his recovery from yesterday, but I'd still trust him more against Jefferson Montero than I would Connor Randall.

Midfield? It's probably either Allen or Milner with Stewart – maybe Lucas, in an even less attack-capable duo – unless Klopp continues with the 4-3-3 we saw against Villarreal or the 4-4-2 diamond we saw against Newcastle, or either Brannagan or Chirivella get a surprise start along with Stewart. I'm always in favor of playing players against their former club, but I still suspect Milner will get the nod over Allen just because of his fitness levels. Unless Klopp's initially planning on a Lucas-Milner midfield next Thursday, that is.

Attack? Again, who's better able to play three times in seven days, and to play in the #10 position behind Sturridge? Coutinho, who was ill on Thursday? An out-of-form Firmino? Lallana? Regardless, the attack is going to be the Daniel Sturridge Show, with a massive, massive point to prove after being left out at Villarreal. You thought his ten shots at Bournemouth was egregious? I wouldn't be surprised if he takes 15 tomorrow.

Maybe Liverpool go with a 4-4-2 diamond, something like Stewart; Allen, Milner; Lallana/Firmino; Sturridge, Benteke – pretty much the XI which started adequately but then threw away two goals and couldn't get back into the game against Newcastle – but that also seems doubtful, and leaves no place for either Ibe or Ojo, both fresh, needing game time, and with points to prove.

It will be a much-changed side. And, for the most part, these much-changed sides have done well, not counting last weekend's second-half capitulation. At this stage of the season, it's all about managing resources while still trying to accrue acceptable results. We know where Liverpool's priorities lie.

Swansea, at the bottom of the mid-table pile but almost certainly safe from relegation – but would be absolutely mathematically safe with a win tomorrow – have been decent at home and very, very bad away lately. They're coming off 0-3 and 0-4 losses against Newcastle and Leicester respectively, which hopefully is a sign that they're already on the beach for the summer, but they've also lost just twice at home in 2016: 2-4 against Sunderland back in January and 0-1 against Southampton back in February. Since Boxing Day, Swansea's home record is 5W-1D-2L, with wins over West Brom, Watford, Norwich, Villa, and Chelsea. All five of those wins have been 1-0. The aforementioned 2-4 defeat to Sunderland was the only time that Swansea conceded more than once in the last nine home matches, with six clean sheets during that stretch.

Incidentally, the result when these sides met at Anfield in November? 1-0 to the home team.

Will we get the "tough to beat at home, grind you down" Swansea or the "season's over, don't care" Swansea which conceded seven in its last two matches? Whichever Swansea it is will be missing both Fer and Paloschi with hamstring injuries, which certainly doesn't help their cause, but they have replacements: either Britton or Ki for Fer, either Gomis or Barrow or even Routledge (with Ayew moving into a striker's role). The most likely XI seems to be Fabianski; Rangel, Fernandez, Williams, Taylor; Britton, Cork; Ayew, Sigurðsson, Montero; Gomis.

We all know which is Liverpool's more important match this week. But that doesn't wholly detract from tomorrow's contest. A chance to put the Newcastle result right, a chance to put the Villarreal result right. A chance for players to force their way into contention for Thursday, a chance for players to force their way into contention for more meaningful fixtures in the future, both this season and next.

The season ain't over yet, the league campaign ain't over yet. There's still much for Liverpool to do, in both of the competitions they're still in.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Swansea

Previous Match Infographics: Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



Liverpool were very good in defense – albeit against opposition that rarely attacked until conceding – and just barely good enough in attack. And not for the first time under Jürgen Klopp.

Liverpool allowed zero shots on-target four times during Rodgers' 166 games as manager: 1-0 Burnley (a) and 0-0 Bolton (h) last season, 2-0 Hull (h) and 5-0 Tottenham (a) in 2013-14. It's now happened twice in Klopp's 10 games: at Rubin Kazan and yesterday.

Five of Swansea's nine shots came from outside the box, with only three in the Danger Zone, all from headers and all well off-target. Five of Swansea's shots came after the 75th minute, increasingly desperate in the hopes of maybe possibly getting something from the match. Liverpool blocked four of those five.

Liverpool's pressing game worked reasonably well, especially considering midweek exertions, with 13 of 24 successful tackles and seven of 20 interceptions in Swansea's half.

At the same time, Liverpool took just 10 shots, despite being at home, despite having the majority of possession (at least until Milner's penalty opener). 10 shots are the fewest that Liverpool have taken in a match at Anfield this season in any competition; Liverpool took eight at both Stoke and United in the first month of the campaign.

And Liverpool put just two of those ten shots on-target; that's the second time that Liverpool have had just two shots on-target under Klopp. The 1-1 draw with Southampton was the first. And both were at Anfield. To be fair, the same happened twice under Rodgers: against Bournemouth and West Ham, both at Anfield as well.

For the most part, the shots Liverpool took were in good positions – eight of 10 in the box, five of 10 in the Danger Zone – but far too many were blocked, with Swansea's deep defense permanently in position, and there were nowhere near enough. This was one of the few times I've missed Coutinho's long-range shooting. Sure, they don't often go in, but they go in more often than when you don't shoot at all. He'd have fired at least four frustrated, speculative efforts by halftime.

Liverpool also struggled to find Benteke, receiving the fewest passes in a league start since joining the club, and subsequently attempted and completing the fewest passes in his eight league starts – even fewer than when he played just 45 minutes against Norwich.

Five of Liverpool's eight key passes came from the fullbacks, with none from Firmino, Benteke, Ibe, Milner, or Sturridge. Otherwise known as "every attacker except Lallana."

Where each side recovered possession seems telling: almost exactly equal amounts, but Liverpool in the middle third, Swansea in their defensive third.



Swansea blocked 50% of Liverpool's shots, Liverpool blocked 44% of Swansea's shots. Neither side allowed a clear-cut chance from open play; the lone was Liverpool's goal from the penalty spot.

It was a defensive battle played in difficult conditions, with Klopp focusing on the strong wind in his post-match comments. It came after a midweek Europa League match. Liverpool were without Coutinho, Lucas, and Sakho – Liverpool's best attacker, best holding midfielder, and best center-back – with both Henderson and Sturridge returning as substitutes but clearly lacking match fitness.

It wasn't a great performance, and Liverpool still need to improve quite a bit in attack. Except for the two away matches against Chelsea and City, we've seen these shooting and scoring issues all season, and for the majority of last season. But, even against this type of opposition and even at Anfield, we haven't seen that sort of defensive solidity anywhere near enough. And that's no small matter.