Visualized: Liverpool 2-0 Chelsea

Previous Match Infographics: Porto (h), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), Fulham (a), Bayern Munich (a), Burnley (h), Everton (a), Watford (h), Manchester United (a), Bayern Munich (h), Bournemouth (h) West Ham (a), Leicester (h), Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



Once again, Liverpool just are.

They just grind. They just get there, whether through a late goal or five-minute flurry or moment of magic. They drag themselves, sometimes kicking and screaming, over the finish line. For the seventh successive win in all competitions, and at this point of this season.

At this point, they are what they are. And what they are is relentless.

Once again, the first half isn't great.

Liverpool take just four shots. Salah's first, on target, was a very good chance, but the rest are more marginal. Once again, a deep, determined back four/six/eight, is stifling Liverpool. And we're getting frustrated.

And not only is Chelsea's defense deep, determined, and in position, they're upsetting Liverpool's flow with an intermittent press, using the front three and maybe a midfielder to hassle the initial build-up before dropping once Liverpool get around the halfway line. Chelsea made a surprisingly high amount of tackles and interceptions in the middle third of the pitch for a side facing Liverpool.

It makes for tough watching, especially as Liverpool, Anfield, and every single one of us knows a win's necessary to keep pace. And every single one of us remembers the last time Liverpool were in this position against Chelsea late in a title-chasing season.

But Liverpool keep going and, encouraged rather than dismayed, Liverpool get two quick-fire goals early in the second half – a passing move the likes of which we've seen all season and an absolute marvel from Mohamed Salah.

Liverpool get that bit of luck, with Hazard's two missed chances, but Liverpool also make their own luck, as has happened almost all season. Liverpool see out the match with comfortable possession after those frightening five minutes, with cool heads and necessary substitutions ensuring said comfort.

It's not quite as frantic as Southampton or Tottenham, and not quite as secure as against Porto, but not wholly out of character from what we've seen over the last few months. For better far more than for worse.

There has been one notable change over the last three matches though. Jordan Henderson's emergence (reemergence?) as an attacking midfielder. The third goal off the bench against Southampton, his first goal of the season. Assists for the game-winning goal against Southampton and Chelsea. The most Liverpool chances created against Porto, including a hockey assist on the crucial second goal, where he also won the ball back in the midfield to start the move.

His assist on Sunday – like his goal against Southampton – was exactly what I've wanted to see more of from Liverpool's midfielders, even when we're getting sufficient creation from the front three and full-backs. Those runs into the box though. This time, backing up Salah and Firmino's entry into the penalty area, following up when Emerson intercepted then standing up a cross to the box post, knowing exactly where to find Sadio Mané. That goal against Southampton came as the extra attacker on the break, charging after Matip's long pass downfield, in the right place for Firmino's centered pass.

They've been important moments, necessary moments.

There is a whole mountain of salt taken with this because of sample size but Henderson's performances as a more advanced midfielder have been more than encouraging.



Running hot in front of goal for a couple of games, yay! Which, maybe, to be fair, but also a pile of key passes and interceptions per 90 minutes compared to others who've played in that position. And, unsurprisingly, compared to what he's done in a deeper role.

There are a couple of other caveats worth mentioning besides sample size and positional foibles. Henderson started in this role against Everton and United a couple of months ago and *gulps, tugs collar*, taking just one shot and failing to create a chance in the two matches, with Liverpool drawing both 0-0. That dribble rate is bad, whether as an attacking midfielder or defensive shield.

As for the others he's compared to. Four of Milner's six goals were from the penalty spot and three of Milner's six assists have been from set plays, so that's marginally inflated. Plus Milner's also played a handful of games at full-back, so warnings about long passes, total passes, and defensive actions. We're often told that a lot of what Wijnaldum's asked to do doesn't show up in stats like these, except maybe his pass accuracy and higher dribble rate than Milner or Henderson. And Keïta's sometimes struggles this season are more than explainable with change in style and league, as well as intermittent injury. Plus, he's also come good over the last few games.

Whether it's a blip or course correction, it has been encouraging, and it has been good timing from Liverpool's captain.

But he has not been the only one. Not on Sunday, not for the last three games or the last month.

Because, once again, Liverpool are what Liverpool are. And it's an everyone thing.

The center-backs and keeper organized and defend. The full-backs defend and create. The midfield possesses and passes and presses, and Fabinho destroys while Keïta and Henderson increasingly add to the attack. And the front three does front three things.

It's less "Mohamed Salah will save us" than at almost any point last season. It's less "Alisson and van Dijk will cancel out any possible mistakes" than earlier in this season. It is very much a team effort, which makes it that much more meaningful.

Sometimes it's great and good fun, although rarely comfortable. Sometimes we get less than we'd like. Sometimes much less, to our chagrin and detriment. But, at least for the last month and more, we've gotten enough. No matter how. Every single time.

Liverpool 2-0 Chelsea

Goals:
Mane 51'
Salah 53'

That was a magnificent performance.

2-0, with both goals scored in the second half and in quick succession, may not necessarily suggest so. But Liverpool were incredibly impressively good throughout, and I'm still sat here in awe of it.

Okay, so it's 0-0 for the entire first half. Which, not great. In keeping with some recent frustration. But.

Liverpool are getting chances. Salah's first-time shot after a lovely Keïta pass and Mané cross too close to Kepa. Firmino poking a wicked free kick at Kepa, but also inches offside. Crosses just eluding Liverpool attackers, Chelsea defenders sticking out a leg just in time as attackers charge at goal. There's goals in this here game.

Meanwhile, Liverpool are coping reasonably well with Chelsea's sporadic press, as the front three and more attacking midfielders challenge when the ball's in Liverpool's defensive third before retreating into that frustratingly deep, frustratingly organized shape. No giveaways, no stupid. Which is always encouraging.

And Liverpool are doing enough to stop potentially dangerous Chelsea counters, whether it's Fabinho tackles or van Dijk and Matip in the air or Alisson beating away crosses. Liverpool know they need to win and proceed accordingly with both structure and tempo, but continue to ensure there's far fewer chances for stomach punches. As they've done for the vast majority of the season.

So it's 0-0 when we restart after that first half, and while it's been mostly encouraging, we're mostly full of terror because we're always full of terror. I promise, it was not bad. We might be afraid, because we've been conditioned to be afraid, but Liverpool feel like they're gonna keep doing Liverpool.

And for two glorious minutes, we get a reminder of this side in full flow. We get a reminder of Liverpool at their sword-wielding best. The side that takes names and stomps souls.

We get an opener from Sadio Mané, featuring Liverpool doing everything good that Liverpool does in attack. Constant probing possession. Spread wide to Salah, run at the box. Interplay between Salah, Firmino, and Henderson, the latter refusing to give up on the bounce of the ball. A cross from the byline, a header at the back post. Like so many we've seen come before.

And we almost immediately get a second from Mohamed Salah. Which, good lord. I know Mo Salah hasn't played all that well lately, constantly an inch or a millimeter off of what'd go perfectly last season. I also know that only Mo Salah scores that goal in this side. Van Dijk, cross-field and over the top. Salah, one on one with Emerson, who still retreats despite Salah's struggles. He gets onto that left foot. And he absolutely spanks a shot from absolutely nowhere past Arrizabalaga.

Goals from sustained build-up and crosses, and goals from Mohamed Salah doing literally unbelievable things. Sounds about right.

Of course, then we're jolted back to reality. Five minutes of utter terror. Two moments that should have been Chelsea goals: Hazard twice breaking Liverpool's usually reliable offside line, hitting the post with the first and denied by Alisson on the second. Maybe there's complacency involved, but there's also a Chelsea substitution: Higuain replacing Hudson-Odoi, shifting Hazard ostensibly back to the left. Where he probably should have played from the off.

There has been a lot of good done by Liverpool this season. But there has been a lot of luck as well. And this might well be a different match – it's at least a different Anfield – if Hazard pulls one back. Yes, yes, different season, but I can't help remembering Arsenal last season. 1-0, then 2-0. But then 2-1 and 2-2 and 2-3 and come the hell on.

But this time, van Dijk hollers and Keïta gets his foot on the ball. Liverpool basically stop everything, dominating possession for the next few minutes. Liverpool replace Keïta and Henderson with fresh legs in Milner and Wijnaldum. And Liverpool completely controls the final 30 minutes. You can't call it coasting, because Liverpool never stop running, never stop pressing, and have a few more sights at goal, but for the most part, it's game over and a slow slow death for another opponent. As we got on Tuesday. No muss, no fuss, three points, back on top.

So, yeah. It's basically everything you want to see. Liverpool, determined and resilient in attack despite early frustration, eventually getting the needed minutes of magic. Liverpool, determined and resilient in defense, in control for the vast majority but also doing enough to hang on during the frightful five.

And that's just in isolation. You cannot forget the context. City have cantered to another win just prior, strolling 3-1 at Palace, to leapfrog Liverpool in the table. And Liverpool are up against Chelsea – not only a decent side who can counter-act a lot of what Liverpool want to do, not only the toughest opponent left to face in this league campaign, but you know and I know and they know that this is also a fixture with far too much PTSD attached. This time of year. This spot in the standings. And this opposition.

And Liverpool did exactly what they needed to. Again. A seventh win in a row in all competitions, a fifth in the league, unbeaten since January 7.

This team just will not stop. And you cannot help but love them for it, no matter what may come.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea

Previous Match Infographics: Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



The finishing pixie is a cruel mistress.

Liverpool have seemingly done enough to be level, but Liverpool are behind 0-1, having failed to convert on 12 shots, three of which were clear-cut chances. So far this season, Liverpool have converted just seven of 18 clear-cut chances in the league – 38.9%, below last season's 44.9% average.

Liverpool had two clear-cut chances cleared off the line by defenders in the same match for the first time under Klopp. Having a clear-cut chance blocked on the goal line only happened four times in the entire league campaign in each of the last two seasons.

Mo Salah, Liverpool's attacking center-piece, registered four shots through 66 minutes. Two off-target, one easily saved, and one of those clear-cut chances cleared off the line. He's only ("only") scored three goals so far this season, having tallied twice as many by this point last season, and he's hauled off in the 66th minute for Shaqiri, who proceeds to miss a clear-cut chance of his own.

Liverpool are losing and it feels like they shouldn't be and it's gonna be a first loss of the season and the same result as in this fixture last season and yeah, everything sucks.

And then Liverpool score an unbelievable equalizer from the Liverpool shot that’s least likely to go in. Liverpool score a goal from outside the box for the first time this season. Liverpool last scored from outside the box came in the 5-2 win over Roma back in April, Salah from inside the penalty arc. You’ve got to go back to Emre Can’s wallop against Huddersfield in January to find one in the Premier League.

A goal like that all but cancels out everything that came before in my mind. A goal like that makes a draw feel like a win. Especially when it comes that late in the match. Especially when it comes from Daniel Sturridge, who you can’t help but love with every fiber of your being after the last few seasons he’s had and everything he says and does and who’s now joint-top scorer in all competitions so far this season with four goals even though he’s played all of 187 minutes. With almost half of those minutes coming in one league cup match.

Swings and roundabouts, I guess. The finishing pixie, she’s cruel and she’s kind.

And to be fair, the finishing pixie was cruel to both sides. Alisson saved two Chelsea clear-cut chances – the first Liverpool keeper to do so in a match since Mignolet at Manchester City more than a year ago, a match that Liverpool still lost 0-5 – while Morata and Marcos Alonso both missed with headers in the second half.

Maybe we should give the respective defenses a modicum of credit here, whether it’s Alisson’s saves or Luiz and Rudiger’s blocks or Gomez and van Dijk’s recovery pace or van Dijk’s five aerial duel wins leading the way in the match. Even though both sides had chances – Chelsea through those through balls and long passes behind Liverpool’s high line, Liverpool through pressing and that front three’s endeavor even when not at their best – both defenses were more impressive their their attacking counterparts.

Liverpool have conceded just three goals through seven league games. They conceded 12 through the first seven games last season. They conceded nine goals in last season's equivalent seven fixtures.

This was the first time that a Liverpool opponent had a higher xG total than Liverpool this season and the first time that an opponent registered more than 1.0 xG against Liverpool in the league this season. But that's the quality of Chelsea compared to Liverpool's previous opponents. And Liverpool still both held Chelsea to a single goal and got a point out of the match.

Meanwhile, it’s not as if it was all bad in attack. As cliche as it can be, Liverpool were still getting in those positions. It’s small consolation if you don’t find an equalizer out of the blue, but you only truly worry when you’re not getting in those positions.

Firmino played four of Liverpool’s ten key passes, most notably the clear-cut chance for Salah via through ball in the first half and the cutback for Mané's saved shot in the 58th; it’s the first time he’s created more than two chances in a match this season.

Salah, for all the talk that he was too easily muscled off the ball by defenders, completed four out of five attempted dribbles; both Firmino and Many lost possession more often, although that the latter two played the full 90 minutes admittedly makes a difference.

Liverpool scored a late winner or equalizer for the second time in nine matches. That only happened twice last season by the most generous of metrics; there was 2-1 Burnley but also 2-2 Tottenham, with Salah's 90th minute goal that should have been a winner, but then we got a nonsense penalty so it's not really a winner or an equalizer but hell we'll still count it for something. And, regardless of that classification, those two are still the only examples.

Incidentally, both goals – against PSG and at Chelsea – were scored by substitutes, something highlighted by Andrew Beasley in his weekly column.

Liverpool still outshot Chelsea on their own ground, something that didn't happen in last season's 0-1 loss on this ground. Similar happened at Tottenham, where Liverpool were out-shot and lost 1-4 last season, but took more shots than Tottenham and won 2-1 this season. Liverpool are now +4 points on last season’s results, having won their matches they were supposed to win against sides beaten last season but improving on their record against their peers.

And, as against Paris St-Germain, this feels a result that would have ended worse last season. Plus, two defeats to Chelsea in the space of four days could have been a massive blow, a shot to confidence levels after those first seven straight wins, especially with matches against Napoli and Manchester City imminent. The League Cup can be taken as *shrugs* but it’d have been harder to do so had Liverpool not gotten something from this, by hook, crook, luck, or talent.

And, as in multiple matches so far this season, we can clearly see not only what Liverpool are doing well, but where Liverpool can and almost certainly will improve.

Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea

Goals:
Hazard 25'
Sturridge 89'

So I had the match report already written. And there was a lot of complaining, mostly about the front three.

It wasn’t the greatest performance in the other phases either, with midfield creativity an issue and a defense that was allowing Chelsea chances mainly due to long passes to Hazard and Willian in behind the full-backs, whether on the floor or in the air. But I was most annoyed with and disappointed in Liverpool’s attack, which is not a sentence I often feel needs writing.

Two seemingly certain goals cleared off the line by Chelsea defenders: Rudiger after Salah rounded Kepa in the 32nd minute, David Luiz from Firmino’s header in the 72nd. Shaqiri’s missed sitter in the 70th minute, set up by Robertson’s low cross on a rare fast attack. Kepa’s wonderful save on Mané’s shot in the 58th minute. Some makable but wild shots in the first half when Liverpool were the better side, before Chelsea opened the scoring.

And as much as those missed opportunities, it was the frequent loose touches and sloppy passes in the final third. Close-quarters interplay failing to find teammates, centered passes cut out, crosses over attackers heads. Hell, we even saw Salah – Mohamed Salah! – hauled off in the 66th minute because that's how little he'd done. It was frustrating. So, so frustrating, especially when we know what Liverpool are capable of. I may be undervaluing Chelsea’s defense, compact and controlling, but it certainly felt like Liverpool’s attackers could and should have done more and that’s why Liverpool were going to lose.

But then came Daniel Sturridge. In the 89th minute. From the damned parking lot to the only place that Kepa couldn’t save it.

Let's roll that beautiful bean footage.

GOAL OF THE SEASON?!?! GO ON STURRIDGE! pic.twitter.com/f6IBuHP54I

— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) September 29, 2018

And now this is a very different match report.

It goes without saying, especially considering where Liverpool were in the 88th minute, but I will absolutely take a point from this.

Yes, there were the aforementioned missed opportunities for Liverpool, but Liverpool also needed Alisson to make two egregious saves, first on Willian in the 22nd minute, in behind Robertson, then one v one with Hazard after a quickly taken free kick in the 64th. Liverpool conceded to a very good goal, with the midfield passed through by Hazard, Jorginho, and Kovacic and a through-ball to Hazard, yet another moment where Chelsea’s wide attackers exploited Liverpool’s high line and attacking full-backs. And, of course, scored by Hazard. I really do hate that guy.

It’s a lot easier to say when it’s your side that scores a dramatic late equalizer – something Liverpool has been on the receiving end of more often than the giving – but these two sides were equally balanced, and I’d guess it was a hell of a match to watch for neutrals. Sarri’s Chelsea gave Liverpool a serious challenge, combining his style of attack with the deep, determined Chelsea defense we’ve hated for years. And they’re probably only going to get better; he’s been manager for all of two and a half months.

My biggest takeaway – other than Daniel Sturridge is great and I love him – is that this is what we’ve been talking about with Liverpool’s new-found strength in depth. Today’s substitutes? Shaqiri, who should have leveled matters earlier than they were. Naby Keïta, £45m worth of midfielder, adding more dynamism and impetus to Liverpool’s play. And Daniel Sturridge. A healthy, in-form Daniel Sturridge who scored that wall-banger and then celebrated against a former club.

Klopp now has more weapons at his disposal, and Klopp used those weapons to rescue a point, also clearly not caring if Liverpool lost by one or two if it gave the team a better chance of possibly getting a draw.

Liverpool have now played two of last season’s top six away from home. Liverpool lost to both Tottenham and Chelsea last season, and have now won and drawn the same fixtures this season. The other three still to come? Loss at City, loss at United, draw at Arsenal last season. I feel like there’s room for improvement there as well.

And, obviously, still, there’s more room for improvement in this Liverpool side.

Liverpool at Chelsea 09.29.18

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Chelsea (h; League Cup) 09.26.18
0-1 Chelsea (a) 05.06.18
1-1 (h) 11.25.17
1-1 (h) 01.31.17

Last matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Chelsea (h); 3-0 Southampton (h); 3-2 PSG (h)
Chelsea: 2-1 Liverpool (a); 0-0 West Ham (a); 1-0 PAOK (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 4; Salah 3; Firmino 2; Matip, Milner, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 1
Chelsea: Hazard 5; Pedro 3; Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Morata, Willian 1

Referee: Andre Marriner (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Milner Wijnadum Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

So Wednesday wasn’t fun. But this ain’t gonna be Wednesday. Maybe for better, maybe for worse.

Unlike in the League Cup, we’re getting the Liverpool we know and love. At least in the starting XI. For the most part. Whether we get the play we know and love obviously remains to be seen.

The one worry is that Virgil van Dijk won’t have gotten over his rib injury, requiring either Matip or Lovren to keep their place, probably alongside Gomez. And I hope that doesn’t happen. That’s only a marginal slight on Matip or Lovren; they’re better than usually given credit for, even considering the seemingly inevitable once-per-game mistake, but they ain’t Virgil. The full-backs have made a huge improvement, especially considering their respective ages. Gomez is coming along nicely. Alisson’s gonna be great. But van Dijk is the centerpiece, touchstone, leader, etc of this defense.

The only other question is the usual three from four debate in midfield. I’ve left Henderson out in the above guess, as I think the movement and running of Milner and Keïta is crucial and Henderson’s been better is games against lesser opposition that’s pinned back and we’ve seen this trio more than any other, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by any combination.

Otherwise, you know this lineup. And it ain’t the lineup which lost on Wednesday.

Liverpool will be better, stronger, more coherent than they were in the League Cup, but so will Chelsea. To be fair, Chelsea made almost as many changes to their starting XI as Liverpool did in that meeting.

Tomorrow we’ll get Marcos Alonso, bombing forward from full-back with far more threat, on Chelsea's much more dangerous left flank, even if his replacement in the last match scored the equalizer. Jorginho, controlling play from deep midfield, the architect of what Sarri wants to do, pass pass pass away from and around Liverpool, allowing Chelsea to better control tenor and tempo, especially at home. Kanté, no longer the deepest midfielder, but energetic further forward in both pressing and breaking lines. Giroud, far more potent than Morata, especially against Liverpool, with six goals in his last seven matches against Liverpool, including the winner the last time these sides met in the league.

But most importantly, Eden Hazard will start. You saw the impact he had on Wednesday.

And you saw what Chelsea are without him. 0-0 at West Ham the last league match when West Ham focused solely on keeping him quiet. 1-0 to Liverpool, with the score line arguably unfair to the home side, until he came on. And it finished 1-2. Hazard delivered the set play leading to Barkley’s shot leading to the corner that Chelsea equalized on. Hazard scored an unbelievable winner, whomp whomp whomping Keïta and Moreno (especially Moreno) before beating Mignolet all ends in all directions.

I don’t much care for Eden Hazard.

So tomorrow’s XI is likely to be Kepa; Azpilicueta, Cahill, Luiz, Alonso; Kante, Jorginho, Kovacic; Willian, Giroud, Hazard. As on Wednesday, Pedro, Rudiger, and Loftus-Cheek are doubtful. Maybe we’ll get Christensen instead of Cahill, or Rudiger if available, or Fabregas instead of Kovacic in midfield.

So, yeah, Chelsea’s a threat. Even more so than on Wednesday, a match they won at Anfield. And this is at Stamford Bridge.

But still-unbeaten-in-competitions-that-matter Liverpool will be no pushovers. Two of the best sides in the league in match-week seven. Pressing and verticality against pressing and verticality. Hilariously good attackers, diligent and combative midfielders, wild full-backs, the two most expensive goalkeepers in the world, and defenses that range from “can be gotten” to “you ain’t getting” depending on who’s available for either side.

This is what the Premier League’s supposed to be about. Try to enjoy it. And look out.

Liverpool v Chelsea 09.26.18

2:45pm ET, live in the US on ESPN+

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Chelsea (a) 05.06.18
1-1 (h) 11.25.17
1-1 (h) 01.31.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 09.16.16

Last matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Southampton (h); 3-2 PSG (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a)
Chelsea: 0-0 West Ham (a); 1-0 PAOK (a); 4-1 Cardiff (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 4; Firmino, Salah 2; Milner, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 1
Chelsea: Hazard 5; Pedro 3; Willian 2; Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Morata 1

Referee: Kevin Friend (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Moreno
Milner Fabinho Keïta
Sturridge Solanke Shaqiri

It ain’t quite the battle of who could care less, but this is at best an amuse-bouche before the weekend.

The League Cup remains the League Cup. Liverpool’s squad is both better and deeper this season, more capable of contesting all four competitions, but this one remains a distant fourth on the list of priorities.

Normally, the tie being against Chelsea would make it more meaningful, if not more important, but that Liverpool subsequently play the same side in the league on Saturday means that no one’s going to want to tip their hands. And after Chelsea comes Napoli and Manchester City. So it seems we're back to the League Cup still being the League Cup.

That said, Klopp’s league cup lineups have often been somewhere between slightly stronger and much stronger than we’ve expected. But it’s hard to see that being the case tomorrow, especially since Liverpool have a surprising amount of actually good players who’ve hardly seen the pitch so far this season.

Guessing a brand new back five may be foolish, but at least one of Clyne or Moreno will come in at full-back, if not both. Matip will keep his place, and Lovren’s supposedly fully fit and ready to go. I’d vastly prefer Alisson stay in goal, but the obviously-out-of-favor Simon Mignolet’s definitely starting according to Klopp so *shrugs vehemently*.

The front six is as much a guessing game. We all would really like to see Fabinho finally start, while both Keïta and Milner were substitutes against Southampton. Firmino’s definitely not starting, and it’s not hard seeing both Mané and Salah left out as well. Maybe one keeps their place, alongside Sturridge and Shaqiri. Maybe it’s the above, with Sturridge ostensibly on the right, where he’s kinda sorta capable of playing. Maybe it’s the above players in a 4-4-2 diamond, with Sturridge and Solanke up front, Shaqiri as the most advanced midfielder, and Milner and Keïta pushing a bit wider than usual – something both are very much able to do.

It’s the League Cup. Who knows.

Meanwhile, Chelsea will almost certainly approach the match similarly. Wholesale changes. Something like Caballero; Zappacosta, Cahill, Christensen, Emerson; Fabregas, Ampadu, Barkley; Moses, Morata, Hudson-Odoi. Rudiger, Pedro, and Loftus-Cheek are probably absent, all recovering from respective injuries. There has been talk that Hazard will play, but I’d be surprised; he’s too important to Chelsea. Similar goes for players like Marcos Alonso, Kanté, Jorginho, and Willian, but honestly have no idea.

Chelsea have started the season well, unbeaten and having won all of their matches until Sunday, when they drew 0-0 at West Ham. Venue notwithstanding, that’s a West Ham side that Liverpool whomped last month. It’s a West Ham side that has won just two matches this season, at Wimbledon in the League Cup and at Everton nine days ago. Maybe these results against Chelsea and Everton are a sign that West Ham are coming together with a vastly different side and new manager. Or maybe it’s a sign that West Ham knew that if they just kept Hazard quiet, they’d have a good chance of getting something from the match. And they did, and then they did. Which might explain why there’s talk Hazard will play tomorrow.

Wholesale changes, including players who've featured far less, may make Chelsea less capable of Sarri-ball, but they will still be a compact, pressing, possession-dominating side. Which could upset a changed Liverpool XI or feed into Liverpool's compact, pressing, blitzkrieg-counter side. I'm honestly curious to see.

So, yeah, League Cup. Another chance to watch a fun Liverpool side, and a chance for players not featuring regularly to stake stronger claims. To see what the players and the side are capable of in situations like these. That’s what the League Cup is for. That's all the League Cup is for, at least at this stage of the competition.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Chelsea

Previous Match Infographics: Roma (a), Stoke (h), Roma (h), West Brom (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester City [CL] (a), Everton (a), Manchester City [CL] (h), Crystal Palace (a), Watford (h), United (a), Porto (h), Newcastle (h), West Ham (h), Porto (a), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), Huddersfield (a), Swansea (a), Manchester City (h), Everton (h), Burnley (a), Leicester (a), Swansea (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (a), West Brom (h), Everton (h), Spartak Moscow (h), Brighton (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



It happens.



It happens after European matches, especially as the season's gone on. And it doesn't help that three of Liverpool's five away matches against top-four rivals came after one of those European matches, all three ending in losses.




It happens in away matches against Top 4 rivals. All season long.

This is all sorts of yikes. There are caveats – red card at City, mistakes at Tottenham, five crazy minutes at Arsenal, no referee luck at United, that Liverpool were all but perfect and incredibly lucky in these matches last season. The matches at City and Tottenham make these stats, especially the opposition's, look a lot worse than maybe they should. Sample size, etc. But still. Yikes.




It happens in matches where Liverpool have a ton of possession. At least it's less than previous seasons, but it's still too often. There are matches where Liverpool push and push and push and make the breakthrough, but there are still 0-1 Chelsea and 0-0 Stoke and 0-1 Swansea and 0-0 West Brom, etc etc etc. And it's odd to see away matches against both Chelsea and United on this list.




It happens when eight of Liverpool's 11 starters yesterday have played more minutes than they did last season, some very much so, and especially in the front three. Henderson, Gomez, Can, and Matip are all past their totals from last season as well – the first two by a lot, the latter two despite missing the last month – while Oxlade-Chamberlain was on pace to pass his before his knee injury.

And it happens when Liverpool struggle to involve the three players who've pretty much single-handedly won loads of matches this season.

It's because of work load. It's because of the lack of depth in both the front three and midfield. It's because certain sides are happy to sit deep and completely nullify space and pace – even good sides, and especially when good sides do it. It especially doesn't help if Liverpool concede first in matches like this – see 1-1 Burnley, 0-1 Swansea, 1-2 United.

Liverpool couldn't get the front three going, and when Liverpool can't get that front three going, Liverpool often suffer.

Firmino and Salah each took just one shot, despite Liverpool playing 60 minutes when behind. Mané took four, but none after Chelsea took the lead. Firmino's came in the third minute, the first of the match. Salah's came just after halftime, from nowhere and not close. Chelsea are now just the second league side to keep Liverpool from having at least one clear-cut chance in a match this season. Manchester City were the other, in Liverpool's 4-3 home win. Which makes no sense, but all sorts of sense when you remember it's this season's Liverpool.

Mohamed Salah's 34 touches and 22 attempted passes aren't exceptionally low compared to past performances, but it was his participation in dangerous areas – or, obviously, lack thereof – which made the most difference. Five touches in Chelsea's penalty area, through 90 minutes. Layoff, unsuccessful touch, unsuccessful touch, caught offside, tackled.

All that difference in possession, and Chelsea had more touches in Liverpool's penalty area than Liverpool had in Chelsea's.

Liverpool just could not get into Chelsea's penalty area. And Salah's usually the player to do so. Because that's what Chelsea do, especially when they get an early-ish goal.

And that's pretty much the alpha and omega of yesterday's match. 0-0 probably would have been more representative of how the match played out, but it doesn't work like that. There are fine margins, especially with Liverpool's squad size, Liverpool's fatigue, and Liverpool record in matches like these.

And Liverpool, in conceding once and failing to score, or create one good opportunity, were on the wrong side of said margins.

It's not helpful to be on the wrong side of said margins this late in the season, with this much still to play for. But there are two matches left – two Champions League Finals, as Klopp put it – to save the world.

Liverpool 0-1 Chelsea

Goals:
Giroud 32'

I often wonder what it'd be like to follow a football team who did things the easy way.

A month ago, top four seemed all but certain. But then Liverpool went and drew with the 19th and 20th-place sides in the division while Chelsea won three in a row.

And then today happened. The exact way you don't want a match with Chelsea to go. And now we're going into the last day probably needing all three points at Anfield against Brighton.

As if Liverpool would have it any other way. As if Liverpool would happen any other way.

Chelsea are really good at doing things that Liverpool are sometimes bad at stopping. They're one of the best sides at defending deep, in position and in numbers. They counter incredibly well, especially through Moses and Alonso, exploiting Liverpool's full-backs proclivity for getting forward; both cross well, both shoot well. Hazard is a ball-controlling dribble machine. And Chelsea are very good in the air, whether it's Giroud or Morata attacking crosses, or them and midfielders and center-backs on set plays.

And that's exactly how it played out. Liverpool on top for the opening half hour. Patient, prodding possession – which, you know, not my favorite Liverpool, but not a bad idea against a side that plays like Chelsea play and when Liverpool are as fatigued as Liverpool are. Firmino's shot saved from no angle very early on, then two decent chances from Mané, first a blast from distance well saved, then a tame toe-poke straight at Courtois.

So far, fine.

Then all the evil. A warning from Bakayoko: Chelsea straight down the pitch after Mané's shot was saved, Alonso in acres of space, Hazard, Fabregas, Moses, awkward header wide. Warning not heeded. A minute later: possession lost on Robertson's attempted ball over the top, Alonso in acres of space, Bakayoko cross-field, Moses gets an inch around Robertson, cross, Giroud between the center-backs, goal.

We've got Chelsea with a lead. We've got a tired Liverpool. We've got a hot day. We get 60 minutes of slow, silent death.

Playing against a Chelsea side, at home, when they've got a 1-0 lead is like trying to get out of quicksand. The harder you struggle, the worse it gets. The dumber you struggle, the worse it gets. The more tired you are, the worse it gets.

The worse it got.

Needing just a point, Liverpool took all of two shots between Chelsea's goal and the 88th minute. With 70% possession. Both from outside the box. Both nowhere near the target. With none between the 49th and 88th minutes.

Liverpool's substitutions? Henderson for Clyne, Solanke for Robertson, and – very late – Moreno for Milner. The Alexander-Arnold in midfield experiment fails again. Solanke, who had two of Liverpool's three late shots, off-target with both headers and irrelevant otherwise. Liverpool resorting to throwing van Dijk up front, his header just before the final whistle tame and straight at Courtois.

Liverpool literally had no answer for Chelsea's defense. Liverpool's front three is often reliant – not always, but often enough and increasingly so – on space and pace. Chelsea gave them no space. The fixture list, Liverpool's lack of depth, and Liverpool's participation in the Champions League robbed them of that pace, especially Salah, who seemingly might as well not have played.

And, honestly, Liverpool were lucky not to concede a second. No one on the end of Fabregas' or Moses' dangerous low crosses across the six-yard box. Hazard saved at the near post after dribbling past half of Liverpool's side. Rütiger's "goal" from a corner ruled out for offside. Alonso's insane volley from another Moses cross whistling just wide.

This was bad. This was Chelsea completely doing Chelsea, and Liverpool utterly failing to do Liverpool.

This is the first time that Liverpool have failed to score in consecutive Premiership matches since Klopp became manager. Liverpool are stumbling, face-first, to finish the campaign. Liverpool are paying the price for mounting injuries and the lack of squad depth.

But the sky isn't falling. Yet. Even if Tottenham and Chelsea win out, Liverpool can still qualify for next season's Champions League if they beat Brighton at home. A Brighton who are safe from relegation, with seemingly nothing to play for. But a Brighton which just beaten Manchester United two days ago.

Or, you know, Liverpool could just win this season's Champions League in a couple of weeks.

But that we've gotten to this point in the league is beyond annoying. And that we've gotten to this point in Europe remains remarkable.

Liverpool at Chelsea 05.06.18

11:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 11.25.17
1-1 (h) 01.31.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 09.16.16
1-1 (h) 05.11.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-4 Roma (a); 0-0 Stoke (h); 5-2 Roma (h)
Chelsea: 1-0 Swansea (a); 2-0 Southampton (h); 2-1 Burnley (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 31; Firmino 15; Mané 10; Coutinho 7; Can, Oxlade-Chamberlain 3; Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Henderson, Ings, Klavan, Lovren, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Chelsea: Hazard 12; Morata 11; Alonso, Willian 6; Pedro 4; Moses 3; Azpilicueta, Bakayoko, Batshuayi, Fabregas, Giroud, Rudiger 2; Drinkwater, Kanté, Luiz, Zappacosta 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor (LFCHistory) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

So it's been a fairly uneventful week. Just another wild-ass Champions League semi-final where Liverpool conceded four and won the tie and secured a spot in the final in three weeks' time. Its first Champions League final in 11 years. A match that took years off our lives, and probably the players' lives.

And after a match like that in Rome, you'd think Liverpool would rotate its side. You'd almost certainly be wrong.

Liverpool could really use a result here. A win makes top four certain. A point makes it all but certain. Chelsea have been good lately, Chelsea always give Liverpool a difficult match. But more importantly, Liverpool don't really have rotation options.

Maybe Lallana and Can make it back before the end of the season. But they ain't back yet. Matip and Oxlade-Chamberlain are assuredly out for the final three games. Gomez is out too, at least for one more week. Liverpool have no other fit central midfielders, and Liverpool have seen a massive drop-off when they've rotated the back four or, more importantly, the front three.

So, really, the only changes I can see is Clyne or Moreno coming in at full-back. And I wouldn't be surprised if neither happen. Had Liverpool already secured top four, maybe we get something crazy, maybe we get 4-4-2 or three-at-the-back or Solanke or Ings or Woodburn, etc. But since they haven't we probably won't. We probably shouldn't.

Gotta get this.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are unbeaten in their last five matches, not only making the top four race a lot closer than is comfortable, but they're also into the FA Cup final for the second season in a row. They're peaking at the right-ish time, after a fairly disappointing campaign. But that's been Chelsea of in recent years. Win the league. Then get weird. Have players disappoint, have problems with the manager. Lather, rinse, repeat.

But they're still Chelsea. They're still a pain in the rear. It's not going to be a high-line 3-4-3, which Liverpool often feast upon, but a disciplined, well-positioned, fairly deep defense reliant on the wing-backs, Willian, Hazard, and either Giroud or Morata to counter. Something like Courtois; Azpilicueta, Cahill, Rutiger; Moses, Kanté, Fabregas, Alonso; Willian, Hazard; Giroud. And they're fairly healthy, especially considering both the time of the season; David Luiz the only player missing through injury.

This fixture's almost always seen goals, but not a ton of them; both teams have scored in eight of the last nine meetings. But either side has scored more than once in just three of those nine, with five ending in 1-1 draws, including three of Klopp's five meetings.

I'd be more than happy with a 1-1 draw tomorrow, a result that all but ensures Liverpool will be in next season's Champions League. But we've also seen what happens when Liverpool play for a draw, play for damage control. You saw it on Wednesday, kind of. This team only knows how to play one way. Or, better put, this team only knows how to succeed one way. Score goals. Attack. Do Liverpool.

Go get this.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea

Previous Match Infographics: Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



48 hours later, and it's slightly easier to stomach. 48 hours later, and it's easier to give Chelsea their due.

That was an excellent defensive performance.

Chelsea blocked a higher proportion of Liverpool's shots than any other Liverpool opponent since Klopp became manager. Nine of Liverpool's 16 shots were blocked – 56.25%. Only two other matches saw more than 50% of Liverpool's shots blocked: 12 of 23 (52.2%) in the 0-2 loss at West Ham in 2015-16 and seven of 13 (53.8%) in the 1-1 at United last season.

Liverpool didn't have a non-blocked shot from inside the box until Salah's goal in the 65th minute.

Only the losses at Manchester City (red card) and Tottenham (two-down before taking a shot) saw Liverpool attempt a higher proportion of shots from outside the box.

Chelsea made six successful tackles inside their own penalty box, more than any other Liverpool opponent this season: four on Salah and two on Sturridge, all six prior to Liverpool finally scoring.

That's what Liverpool's attack forced Chelsea to do. Which, unfortunately, they did quite well. Aside from one excellently-worked move between Salah and Coutinho, featuring Oxlade-Chamberlain's throughball and a slight deflection from Bakayoko.

It was Mo Salah's 15th goal in all competitions this season. It's not even December. Liverpool's top scorer in any full season since 2014-15 was Coutinho last season with 14.

And it's not as if Liverpool defended badly either.

Only Tottenham – a 2-1 Chelsea win – and Manchester City – a 1-0 City win – restricted Chelsea to fewer shots on-target. Those two games, as well as Chelsea's 3-3 home draw with Roma, were the only ones where Chelsea have had less possession than they did on Saturday. Only Arsenal, City, and Roma have held Chelsea scoreless this season.

And given Liverpool's frequent set-play failures, it's worth noting that Chelsea had eight corners and a handful of free kicks in dangerous positions with none truly threatening, a couple of blocked shots and off-target headers to show for it. Both Matip and Wijnaldum had better set-play chances at the other end of the pitch, despite Chelsea being a much taller side.

But Chelsea lucked into a goal five minutes from full-time. I don't care what Willian says. That was a fluke. That was an attempted cross to the back post. Maybe Mignolet could have moved quicker to adjust his feet, and Henderson should have done better when trying to clear Gomez's header earlier in the move, but it was unlucky for Liverpool and very lucky for Chelsea all the same. And it was just the second league goal that Liverpool have conceded at Anfield this season.

Again, it wasn't a bad performance, and it's not the worst result. Especially with three changes to the front six that's started the last two matches. Especially without both Firmino and Mané.

Liverpool needed to rest players – in order to press early, which Klopp understandably thought was the best way of unsettling Chelsea; because of the packed fixture list; and given how tired more than a few looked by the end of the match. Liverpool were playing the defending league champions, who'd scored four in each of their last two games, and who could and did rest a lot of players in their midweek Champions League match. Liverpool scored a good goal, Liverpool responded to the absolute failures in the second half at Sevilla last Tuesday.

And for long spells, Liverpool were the better side, even if not by much. And so this ends with the same result we've seen the previous two times these sides met in this fixture.

I'd feel a lot better about this had we not suffered similar disappointments too often already this season. Had we not seen yet another draw from a winning position, had we not seen yet another late goal conceded.

Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea

Goals:
Salah 65'
Willian 85'

Once again, we're stuck between context and isolation.

Let's do isolation first.

On balance, a draw's probably fair. Chelsea defended brilliantly throughout. Chelsea had the best spell of attacking pressure until the opening goal, with Mignolet required to make smart saves on Hazard and Zappacosta, as well as charge off his line to ensure Drinkwater didn't get to Hazard's through ball first, all in a five-minute span halfway through the first half.

Liverpool made five changes to the starting XI, including two in the front three, wanting fresh legs in order to press press press early on. Which Chelsea dealt with well for the opening 20 minutes until ratcheting up their attack for the rest of the first half.

Liverpool didn't have a single shot on-target in the first half for the first time since the trip to Stoke back in April, when Liverpool deployed a radically changed 3-5-1-1 line-up. Liverpool didn't have a shot from inside the box that wasn't blocked until the 65th minute, with six in-box shots blocked and six from outside the box either off-target or blocked.

But Jürgen Klopp made some good in-game changes. In the second half, Salah and Oxlade-Chamberlain switched flanks, ostensibly so Salah could make Zappacosta think twice before driving forward at Liverpool's defense. Coutinho played further forward with Milner deeper, looking much more a 4-2-3-1 with Liverpool in possession. For the first 20 minutes of the second half, Liverpool had six shots to Chelsea's one.

And in the 65th minute, Liverpool got the breakthrough. And they needed an absolutely brilliant piece of attacking play to do so: Henderson intercepts a lofted clearance on the halfway line, to Coutinho, to Salah, to Coutinho, around Kante and driving at the defense. Bakayoko can't block Coutinho's layoff to Oxlade-Chamberlain, who plays a perfect throughball to Salah, controlled outstandingly and then finished past Courtois with his weaker foot.

Coutinho, higher up, with the run and layoff to make the goal. Oxlade-Chamberlain from the right with the assist. And Salah, cutting inside from the left, controlling and finishing despite having to play it with his right foot.

That was fun.

No matter how good your attack is, you don't get many moves like that against Chelsea. You don't create many moves like that against Chelsea.

Of course, there would be a reply. There would be Fabregas and Pedro and Willian on for Drinkwater, Bakayoko, and Zappacosta. There wouldn't be many Liverpool substitutes – not with that attacking bench, not with Can and Lovren injured, not with Alexander-Arnold and Robertson as the only defenders and Wijnaldum and Lallana the only midfielders.

But Liverpool were holding out reasonably well, pushed too deep and unable to keep possession, but mostly denying chances. And then, Willian somehow Koncheskys a cross over Mignolet in the 85th minute. Two minutes after coming on. And a minute after Liverpool weren't allowed to make a substitute of their own because reasons.

It's a fluke, it's a gut punch, and it happens, and it's honors even between two good teams. It's the third consecutive match where we've seen this scoreline in this fixture. Salah and Oxlade-Chamberlain were outstanding, Gomez again belied his age with a very good defensive performance against difficult opposition, and Henderson and Moreno's performances – especially Moreno's – were polar opposites of the drama and disorder in Sevilla.

But then there's the context. I've written about the context way too often of late.

It's the 22nd time that Liverpool have drawn or lost despite having the lead. It's the third time in the league this season – and you don't want to look where Liverpool would be in the table with six more points from the matches against Watford, Newcastle, and Chelsea. It's the 10th time it's happened because of an opposition goal scored after the 80th minute. It's very much two vital points dropped rather than a point earned.

Liverpool have now played all five of their top six rivals. One win, smashing an abysmal Arsenal. Two frustrating draws, against United and Chelsea, both at Anfield. And two comprehensive losses, away at City and Tottenham.

And now, we're where we started. Liverpool could have gone above Tottenham into fourth after they drew against West Brom. Liverpool could have gone level on points with Chelsea in third. But the table remains the same for now, with Liverpool possibly falling a place in the standings if Arsenal or Burnley win when they play tomorrow.

The season is a third of the way over. And Liverpool cannot keep giving away points that they should be more than capable of holding onto. The rest of the league is far too good for that.

Liverpool v Chelsea 11.25.17

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 01.31.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 09.16.16
1-1 (h) 05.11.16
3-1 Liverpool (a) 10.31.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-3 Sevilla (a); 3-0 Southampton (h); 4-1 West Ham (a)
Chelsea: 4-0 Qarabag (a); 4-0 West Brom (a); 1-0 United (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 9; Coutinho, Firmino, Mané 3; Sturridge 2; Alex O-C, Henderson, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Chelsea: Morata 8; Alonso, Hazard 3; Batshuayi, Pedro 2; Azpilicueta, Bakayoko, Fabregas, Kante, Luiz 1

Referee: Michael Oliver (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Gomez Lovren Klavan Moreno
Wijnaldum Henderson Coutinho
Salah Firmino Mané

Mignolet for Karius aside, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same side which did things at Sevilla. Good things and bad things. You remember the things.

Both Matip and Lallana are training, but I don't expect either to start. Matip, just given how short his absence has been, is more likely, but Stoke on Wednesday is a better bet. And, limiting Liverpool's options for changing what was a very bad midfield on Tuesday, Emre Can's questionable with a minor muscle injury.

And yes, "same again" includes keeping Alberto Moreno in the starting XI. A bad 15 minutes against your former club doesn't and shouldn't rule out everything that came before. Maybe Milner's a "safer" option but Milner's not a long-term option. Moreno's gotta play through this, because Chelsea at home is not the time for Andrew Robertson to make his first start in two months. But I will perpetually remain afraid of Liverpool defenders with a point to prove, even more than I'm already perpetually afraid of Liverpool defenders.

I guess there's a chance Liverpool will play the 4-4-2 we saw at West Ham, considering who's available and Chelsea's likely shape, but I'm not all that expectant. Regardless, it'd be the same XI, but with Firmino and Salah central and Mané and Coutinho wide. And I remain concerned about Coutinho's tracking back when deployed wide, especially in a formation that encourages the opposition to attack.

And Chelsea, even though they're managed by Antonio Conte, even though they play three at the back, even though they're still Chelsea, will attack. Maybe more heavily on the counter, but they'll present problems. They've won six of their last seven, including the last two away from home by a 4-0 scoreline. Only Roma, the lone loss since October 14, held Chelsea scoreless over the last five weeks. It's probably not coincidence that Chelsea were without N'Golo Kante in that match.

Chances are that Chelsea's XI will be familiar, although they had much more license to rotate in the midweek Champions League match. But both of the last two league matches – 1-0 v United, 4-0 at West Brom – saw the same 3-5-1-1 line-up. Courtois; Azpilicueta, Christensen, Cahill; Zappacosta, Fabregas, Kante, Bakayoko, Alonso; Hazard; Morata.

Maybe Rüdiger or David Luiz comes in for Zappacosta, with Azpilicueta as the wing-back in a slightly more defensive set-up. 3-4-3 is also an option with Willian or Pedro coming in for one of the three central midfielders; Willian scored twice midweek at Qarabag, with one set up by Pedro. Batshuayi is out injured, while Moses has only recently returned and is likely to be on the bench at best.

There are two ways to look at Liverpool's recent record against Chelsea. It's good! Liverpool are unbeaten in their last five against last season's league winners. It's kind of frightening! Liverpool haven't won against Chelsea at Anfield since May 2012, a 4-1 win with Chelsea all but asleep after beating Liverpool in the FA Cup final a few days earlier.

Sevilla has to be forgotten. That collapse cannot affect Liverpool as past collapses have; 0-5 at City followed by a seven-match run where Liverpool won just once. The ideal would be the response to losing 1-4 at Tottenham, rattling off four complete wins before last Tuesday happened, even if none of those wins came against a side with the talent that Chelsea has.

Sevilla can't be forgotten. This was not Liverpool's first multiple-goal collapse, even if it was Liverpool's first in a while. It probably won't be the last. But it needs to be the last, at least for a while. This side has still scored at least three goals in its last five games. This side had kept clean sheets in three of the previous four matches (and five of the previous seven), with no team attempting more than six shots, in the games before Sevilla.

Last season, Liverpool went unbeaten against their top-six rivals. This season, Liverpool have one win, one draw, and two humiliating losses. They are, however, still unbeaten at Anfield. They have, however, still conceded just one league goal at Anfield.

Chelsea currently sit third, three points ahead of Liverpool in fifth. Three points are available tomorrow. Chelsea have Liverpool's points and Liverpool's place. Liverpool need to go get them.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea

Previous Match Infographics: Swansea (h), Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.



(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Another narrow match, just as in the last meeting. The away side scored first. The home side came back in the second half. Where Liverpool scored twice at Chelsea, from a set play and unlikely long-range blast, Chelsea scored once, a set play unlikely long-range blast.

Either side could have won. This time, neither did.

Despite all the evil this month, Liverpool came back. Liverpool got at least a point despite conceding the opener, something they were unable to do against either Swansea or Wolves. Liverpool limited Chelsea to a goal that goes in maybe once in 50 attempts, a strike Luiz usually fails to put on-target, and annoyingly helped by the fact Mignolet wasn't paying attention (although he's unlikely to save it anyway) and because the wall didn't jump quick enough.

Both sides will feel like they could have gotten more from this. Each side's gonna be mad about the goal they conceded, each side's gonna be mad about the goals they didn't score.

Chelsea hit the post in the second half through Moses' counter-attack, were denied Pedro in on goal by a wonderful last-man tackle from Henderson, and finished the match the far stronger side in the final 15 minutes, almost certainly symptomatic of how draining this month has been for Liverpool.

Liverpool had three clear-cut chances in the second half but scored just one. Firmino missed one, eight minutes before Wijnaldum scored, and sent one straight at Courtois in the 90th minute. How different it could have been had Liverpool been more ruthless, had Liverpool been just marginally more potent in attack. How many times I've written that this month. Liverpool also should have gotten a penalty when Moses barged Milner just inside the box in the 65th minute.

And Chelsea did get a penalty, ten minutes after Milner's claim. But Mignolet saved Diego Costa's 76th-minute spot kick, given when Costa dived in front of Matip. It was the 14th Premier League penalty that Mignolet's faced for Liverpool; he's now saved six of them, a surprisingly impressive record.

Honors even probably deserved. But Liverpool needed this match a lot more than Chelsea did. Chelsea just wanted to not lose, evident in just how defensive they were, all but copying the strategy that's frustrated Liverpool all month long but with more talented players. They focused on keeping in tight, staying deep, and congesting their own half. Kante was everywhere without the ball, even if he couldn't do anything with it.

That's all Chelsea needed because they were ten points ahead of Liverpool, nine ahead of Tottenham, and eight ahead of Arsenal going into this match. With Arsenal losing and Tottenham drawing, they remain far in the distance in first.

I am again tempted to blame Liverpool's attack, because that's what I do even when it's not entirely fair, with the front three again nowhere near their peak and struggling against a packed defense. Just seven shots in total, at home, albeit against the stingiest side in the league. It's the second-lowest total of the season, behind the home game against City, a match where Liverpool protected a lead for nearly the whole match rather than needing to chase a deficit. Despite 66% possession, Liverpool only took one shot in the first half – Wijnaldum from outside the box – which is a new low for the season. Just three shots on-target: that Wijnaldum effort from distance, Wijnaldum's goal, and Firmino's late, too-easily-saved clear-cut chance.

But, again, at least there were signs of improvement. In getting at least something of a result against Chelsea after failing to do so against far worse teams earlier this month. In setting the fierce pressing tone from the opening whistle. In taking the game to Chelsea, especially the first 30 minutes after halftime. In getting the equalizer. In getting three second-half clear-cut chances; only one side has equaled that total against Chelsea this season – Manchester City at the beginning of December. A match that City lost after dominating for an hour, a match where City failed to score any of those three clear-cut chances, with Chelsea's revival coming immediately after de Bruyne hit the woodwork with City's final big chance.

All told, it's probably a point gained rather than two lost, even if it's hard to look at it that way after the last month. And with a point gained, Liverpool will at least finish this slate of matches in fourth, if only on goal difference if City win at West Ham later today. Liverpool will be just a point off second despite this horrific month. It's likely that three points will separate second from sixth going into the weekend.

I hope we're able to look back on this – finally, the end of January – and say that Liverpool stopped the rot. After facing Hull on Saturday, Liverpool are done with two-matches-in-a-week until April, and we know how much better this side is with time on the training pitch and a week between games. Mané's back. Almost everyone's available, if not fully fit. Liverpool remain unbeaten against the rest of the top six this season.

It's a point gained against the runaway league leaders, a point earned by the second half performance and a necessary unwillingness to give in. There are 15 games still to play, with Liverpool's next two home matches against second and third.

Now, Liverpool need to push on from here. This needs to be a turning point rather than a false dawn.

Liverpool v Chelsea 01.31.17

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 09.16.16
1-1 (h) 05.11.16
3-1 Liverpool (a) 10.31.15
1-1 (a) 05.10.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Wolves (h); 0-1 Southampton (h); 2-3 Swansea (h)
Chelsea: 4-0 Brentford (h); 2-0 Hull (h); 3-0 Leicester (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino 8; Lallana 7; Milner 6; Coutinho 5; Origi 4; Can 3; Lovren, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Chelsea: Costa 15; Hazard 9; Pedro, Willian 5; Alonso, Cahill, Moses 3; Batshuayi, Fabregas, Kante 1

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Alexander-Arnold Matip Lovren Milner
Wijnaldum Henderson Can
Lallana Firmino Coutinho

It's obviously not a great time to host the league leaders. Liverpool are in disarray. Liverpool have one win in 2017, at League Two Plymouth Argyle with a second-string side. Liverpool have lost their last three matches, all at Anfield – the first time that's happened in more than four years. Liverpool haven't lost four in a row at Anfield since 1923, the only time that's happened in Liverpool's history.

Or is it?

No, no it's probably not. At least January will finally be over.

We can hope this fixture inspires Liverpool out of this current funk. And there is precedent for such. Liverpool were mediocre in Klopp's first few matches, having drawn five of their last six, before traveling to Chelsea and comprehensively winning 3-1. There were a couple of games at Anfield in 2009-10 – 2-0 wins over United and Tottenham – to arrest multiple-match slides which came before. And Liverpool do have an excellent recent record against Chelsea. Liverpool do have an excellent recent record against the current top six.

That Sadio Mané won't return to Merseyside until tonight probably means tomorrow's too soon to start. I hope he's available, for obvious reasons, and Klopp didn't rule it out. Liverpool have desperately missed him, for his qualities and how the rest of the team takes shape around him. More specifically, it'd allow Lallana to play in midfield – another crucial piece of the puzzle – with Wijnaldum the most likely to make way.

At least Adam Lallana's fit again, even if he's likely to play in the front three – don't expect Sturridge or Origi to start unless there are issues with either Wijnaldum or Can besides their rocky form. But Nat Clyne isn't, absent from training in the last few days, which means Alexander-Arnold. Against Eden Hazard. *gulp, tugs collar*

But, of course, it's not as if Eden Hazard is Chelsea's only threat. Chelsea are nothing but threats. Hell, even Victor Moses has become a threat.

Chelsea are eight points ahead of second, and ten ahead of Liverpool. They've won 14 of their last 15 matches in all competitions, and 16 of their last 17 in the league. They've kept clean sheets in 13 of those 17 matches, allowing just six goals, and haven't conceded in their last three games in all competitions.

They're near perfectly balanced between attack and defense, the stingiest side in the league but with Costa, Hazard, Pedro, and Willian all adding goals. Once this Chelsea gets a lead, that's almost certainly it. They won't be as deep as other opponents Liverpool have faced during this awful month, but they congest the middle just as effectively due to both system and personnel. They smother, steal, and transition quickly – capable of doing in through the middle with to Costa, Hazard, and Pedro/Willian's tricks, or up the flanks with Moses and Alonso's pace.

So, yeah, they're good. Liverpool have been very good at times this season as well. But unlike Liverpool, Chelsea are playing good too.

Tomorrow's XI seems fairly easy to predict. It will be what it's been. Courtois; Azpilicueta, Luiz, Cahill; Moses, Matic, Kante, Alonso; Pedro, Costa, Hazard. The only potential alteration is Willian rather than Pedro. Chelsea have no injuries because Chelsea not having any injuries is a big reason why they're first. As with Leicester last season, as with Chelsea the season before.

Chelsea's lone league loss since September is the template. Tottenham's 2-0 home win at the beginning of the month: press, strangle, and restrict Chelsea, both goals coming when Tottenham won the ball in the middle third, stretched the defense with width and pace, and crossed for Dele Alli headers.

Or, in a similar vein, it will take a performance like Liverpool's against Manchester City before this slide started: get the goal (and ideally more!) – with Wijnaldum's not dissimilar from Alli's against Chelsea – then defend like demons. Ideally more than one goal. Ideally better in attack, probably needing to take more than five shots, and especially needing to be better when there are opportunities to counter.

Which makes Liverpool's 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge a template as well. Liverpool started well despite missing a crucial player (Firmino) and scored twice in the first half, enough to see out the win, under pressure after Diego Costa pulled one back but no closer. But that performance took luck as well as skill, especially for Liverpool's goals: Chelsea's complete set play breakdown (which has not happened often since then) for Lovren's opener, then a unlikely bazooka from distance by Henderson.

Liverpool have still lost just one of 14 league matches against the current top six, 0-1 against Manchester United last season. This season, they've beaten Arsenal and Chelsea away and City at home, drawn at Tottenham and against United.

Liverpool have been very good at times this season. Being good again is long, long overdue, and it will happens sooner than later with the schedule easing and Mané returning. But they'll need to be at their best to get something from tomorrow's match.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

Previous Match Infographics: Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

That was a lot more narrow than Liverpool fans may want to remember or acknowledge.

xG map for Chelsea-Liverpool.

Honestly have very little idea what I learned from that match. Fun tho! pic.twitter.com/rU1wLbwsN8

— Caley Graphics (@Caley_graphics) September 16, 2016

Two teams as evenly matched in xG as can be.#LFC's finishing was better than #CFC's.#xGplot pic.twitter.com/6ELfxrKlXu

— 11tegen11 (@11tegen11) September 16, 2016

Antonio Conte's sides aren't supposed to have complete and utter breakdowns when defending set plays, a manager often known for his defensive organization. But there Liverpool were, with three men unguarded at the back post after a short free kick. The only defender to have been in the area – Gary Cahill – somehow left it, either following an already-marked Matip or bafflingly returning to his position while the move's still going. Liverpool's movement was clever: Lovren delayed his run, Sturridge waited until the last second to return from an offside position, Mané drifted into the area upon seeing the overload. But those breakdowns shouldn't happen. Even Liverpool, who we've often excoriated for set-play defense, rarely make fall apart in such a manner.

Jürgen Klopp's sides aren't supposed to allow 16-pass goals where every outfield player touches the ball at least once. Where Liverpool attempt to press the opposition in its own half, but the opposition neatly plays around them, then are beaten all ends up when trying to press in the middle third, with Matic breaking past Lallana, untracked by both Henderson and Lallana, beating a slid-in-too-soon Matip before picking out Costa. Liverpool's defensive organization had been quite good to that point – quickly recovering after losing possession, quickly getting men behind the ball when needed, getting into position, forcing Chelsea to play wide and a subsequent struggle to get into the box – but one failed press and Liverpool are diced through the middle. One opportunity swiftly taken; mistakes from Lallana, Henderson, and Matip swiftly punished.

Liverpool's previous league goals conceded? Two passes (Arsenal), four passes (Arsenal), one pass (Arsenal), two passes (Burnley), one pass (Burnley), 11 passes (Tottenham), zero passes (Leicester).

Honors even in the "first goal conceded is an out-of-character goal conceded" challenge. So the match was settled by a galaxy-class strike by Jordan Henderson. As wonderful as it was and forever will be (here, let's watch it again), that ain't happening often.

Liverpool should have won its last trip to London, unlucky to not score more than once against Tottenham, a 1-1 draw not entirely fair on balance of play. Liverpool easily could have seen this match finish level, just as five of the previous ten meetings finished. Maybe this season it'll actually all even out in the end. It's also hard to complain about getting a result, moderately deserved or marginally deserved or not, when you've won just once against your opponent in the previous ten meetings. Klopp's now done it twice in a row at Stamford Bridge after Liverpool's previous manager failed in all eight attempts at either ground.

Credit where due. Liverpool made us nervous, because Liverpool either can't or won't go through a single match without making us nervous, but Liverpool were also very good after conceding. Chelsea took just two shots in the ~35 minutes after scoring: Diego Costa saved in the 65th minute, Fabregas's free kick into the wall in the 89th. That's it. At home, dominating possession, down by a goal, and unbeaten in five matches.

Chelsea, allowed just 12 shots all match. Chelsea, who took 16 and 22 shots in their two previous home matches. That's their second-lowest home total since being held to eight by Liverpool last season.

And credit where due. Just like last Saturday, Simon Mignolet made a massive save with the score at 2-1, this time denying Diego Costa from 15 yards. It wasn't a clear-cut chance, as Jamie Vardy's was. It was, fortunately, hit almost directly at him. But he stopped it, a threatening shot from one of the league's best strikers, and Liverpool stayed ahead, and Liverpool didn't allow an open play shot for the rest of the match.


For some reason, a lot of y'all act like Liverpool have never been here before. Which, to be fair, is almost accurate. Everyone remembers the multiple 1-0 and 2-0 leads lost. But it's not as if Liverpool are never able to lock the door after conceding. The best example is the 1-1 draw at Borussia Dortmund last season, where Liverpool held Dortmund without a shot for the final 30 minutes to keep the crucial away goal advantage. But we've also got last month at Arsenal, where Arsenal took zero shots in the last 15 minutes after getting back to 4-3. We've got 1-1 at Tottenham, with just two opposition shots, both off-target, after Rose's equalizer.

Clearly, it doesn't happen often enough. And Liverpool conceded at least once in all four of the above examples. Liverpool are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season, Liverpool have kept just three clean sheets in the league since March, all at Anfield: 3-0 v City, 4-0 v Everton, and 2-0 v Watford.

But Liverpool do have the capacity to close down games and Liverpool are slowly (very slowly, especially compared with Liverpool's improvement in attack) getting better at closing out games.

As with everything good we've seen so far this short season, Liverpool just need to do it more often.