No Friendly, No More Insua

I was hoping to write about Liverpool's first friendly today. Lord knows I'd much rather "analyze" matters on the pitch. Ha.

Instead, after postponing and then canceling the game against Al-Hilal due to torrential rain in Austria, the official site announced that the rumored Insua to Fiorentina link is a done deal. When it rains, it pours...

I expected bad things to happen this summer. I still expect more. But I did not expect the sale of Emiliano Insua.

Don't get me wrong; "worse" things can happen. And, yes, I admittedly have more time for the player than most, having been firmly on the bandwagon since his debut against Pompey in April 2007. But this sale makes zero sense.

He is young, on comparably low wages, and would have counted as a homegrown player come next season. He was the only senior left back at the club. The deal will reap all of £4-5m, which will scarcely be enough to purchase any new left back, let alone keep "bigger names" at the club. This move is stupid and short-sighted any way you look at it.

More ominously, this came out exactly one week ago:

“I saw him play in the last three days and I like him both as a player and on a personal level,” Hodgson told Radio Blu in Florence.

“However, talks with Fiorentina started before I got here, so I don’t know how advanced they are.

“I cannot say if Insua will stay at Liverpool or not. I’ll have to discuss that with the club.”

Super. It's not proof, but it's yet another sign the bankers (read: Purslow) are running the club. I doubt Hodgson's seen enough in the past week to change his mind, and it's exceptionally strange Insua came along on the Swiss training camp. It also, again, begs the question of who's running the football side of the club, but, sadly, I don't think that question needs answering.

The only, only explanation I came come up with is that it's "senior sources" yet again. Insua was a scapegoat last season, even though he played more games than expected because of Aurelio's inability to stay fit and the sale of Dossena for working capital. I can't help but think that, like with Rafa, the media's doing Liverpool's business through Cecil. Picking off the players that Purslow thinks the fans will make the least fuss over, even if they're the young prospects the team should be built off of. Wonderful.

Despite last season's difficulties, Insua still had five Premiership assists, six in all competitions, which made him joint-third in the squad (Gerrard and Benayoun had more in all competitions; Gerrard and Aquilani had more in the league). Yes, he was beaten like a rented mule at times last season, but he thrown into the deep end with bricks tied to his ankles. His acceleration and pace on the turn are questionable, but otherwise, he's always an above-average attacking fullback and will only get better defensively. And he is 21 years old. Other than Ashley Cole and Gael Clichy, I'm struggling to come up with any left-backs who've been defensively solid or made the breakthrough in the Prem at that age.

I am so baffled and irate about this transfer. And I'm sure it won't be the last time before the end of August.

What’s Changed?

This season’s been utterly inexplicable. Confidence is smashed, the team is an utter shadow of itself, and everything seems to be imploding. So, naturally, I feel the need to explain it. Time to list every difference I can think of, as if that’ll help. I should have just titled this post “Blame Everybody.”

Xabi Alonso
The elephant in the room. Better players have left Liverpool at key times before. And while I’m hesitant to overemphasize Alonso’s importance (despite the effusive praise written throughout last season), maybe he’s more vital to the 4-2-3-1 than thought. Liverpool rarely used the formation during Xabi’s “bad seasons,” often playing with some combination of Kuyt, Bellamy, and Crouch (and then Torres if we’re counting ’07-08) up top. Now, the formation that saw Liverpool unbeaten in 13 of 14 to finish last season, putting 4 or more goals past Madrid, United, Villa, Blackburn, Chelsea, and Arsenal, looks wholly impotent. Benitez can hardly be blamed for Alonso wanting to leave, and got double what he would have taken for the player a season before, but Liverpool hasn’t compensated on the pitch.

Lucas
Alonso’s replacement with Aquilani out far longer than expected. I’ve defended and will probably continue to defend Lucas. He’s steadily improved and delivered impressive performances in a fair few matches. He shouldn’t be the scapegoat he is; he’s been one of the team’s most consistent players. But the team’s unarguably different when Lucas and Mascherano are in midfield. Even Lucas’ staunchest defenders (like me!) have to admit the duo’s nowhere near incisive enough. The three high-scoring victories – Stoke, Burnley, and Hull – came with Lucas and Gerrard in the middle.

Johnson
The “other” high profile signing. He started impressively, especially in attack, but is part of a backline that’s been unbalanced all season long. He was marginally at fault for three of the last four goals conceded, and hasn’t looked the same player since returning from injury, turning into an absolute defensive liability, which has also restricted his forays forward.

Insua
And the other backline change (aside from early-season CB injuries), getting more playing time than he otherwise would thanks to Aurelio’s inability to stay healthy. He can be a tidy defender, but has struggled with the pace of certain players and the height of others. He's only 20 years old. Like Johnson and Lucas, he’s nowhere near the sole or main reason for Liverpool’s problems, but yet another to add to the list.

Injuries
Blaming injuries is a weak excuse, but bear with me. The big gamble on Aquilani – which might have had something to do with a lack of funds – has completely failed. He was out far longer than expected, with Liverpool off the pace by the time he was “available,” and he even missed the last match after picking up a calf strain. But the entire side’s kept the trainers busy. Torres has started 15 of 26 games. Gerrard’s started 19, only 12 with Torres. Benayoun, Riera, Aurelio, Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Babel, and Kelly have all missed significant games. But all teams have problems; United and Arsenal have had similarly difficult absences.

The Scousers’ form
Carra and Gerrard are often and rightfully described as Liverpool’s heartbeat. As they go, so goes the club. And neither’s had a season to write home about. Carra saw a lot of stick for the early defensive woes – often looking a step off the pace – although he’s also had some good games that also happened to be wins (United, for one). Meanwhile, Gerrard’s been the opposite of influential since returning from injury (noticing a trend?), unable to dictate proceedings from midfield or in attack, his the telepathic partnership with Torres failing to fire. It’s not like the two are the only senior players off the pace – Reina and arguably Torres (injured but has still scored 11 goals) are the only ones having decent seasons (along with Lucas and Ngog, who aren’t senior players) – but Gerrard and Carragher are beyond crucial.

Luck
The most intangible of my explanations, but still merits a mention. A clear penalty – an opportunity to equalize – denied in the first match. Players like Jerome and Belhadj scoring the goals of their careers. Two dubious red cards at Fulham – the same game where Kuyt’s work ethic was what set up Fulham’s winner. Late goals galore. The bloody beach ball! Karma must be a bitch.

Net spending
Ah, here’s where I can complain about off the pitch problems, specifically my lying, two-faced countrymen (*spit*).

Liverpool’s net spending under Benitez (numbers from lfchistory.net):

Summer 2004: £22.2m
January 2005: £7.3m
Summer 2005: £6.78m
January 2006: £6.05m
Summer 2006: £15.78m
January 2007: £1.3m
Summer 2007: £18.07m
January 2008: £17.06m
Summer 2008: £18.5m
January 2009: -£16m
Summer 2009: -£150,000

Numbers are fungible – a couple of undisclosed transfers in each direction, incentives, and the oft-disputed price for Torres, among other debatable points – but that would be a £16,150,000 “profit” over the last two windows after spending an average of almost £18m in the previous three windows. Oh, and there’s a pile of debt on the club (which is where that transfer profit went) and no new stadium anywhere on the horizon. And we expect Liverpool to keep pace with the likes of Chelsea and United, let alone City, Spurs, and Villa. Thanks, George and Tommy. I especially appreciate you making all Americans look bad. Please sell. Now. That’d be the biggest turning point possible.

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This season has been a confluence of kicks to the crotch, to say the least. Shit rolls downhill, so on, so forth. It’s led to a team that’s definitively and deservedly mid-table so far.

But listing all the shortcomings and misfortunes is the easy part. The real question is how to fix it. Whatever the form, even after his team was out-fought by the Premiership’s bottom club, even with morale seemingly so low, Benitez deserves until the end of the season to rectify these problems – at least the ones he’s accountable for. Evident evolution over five seasons, two Champions League finals, including one night in Istanbul, and Liverpool’s best haul in the Premiership for more than 20 seasons last year have earned him that much. Benitez obviously has to bear some of the blame – players need to sort themselves out, but it’s the manager’s job to get the most out of them and put them in the best situation to win. Neither’s been accomplished recently.

If Liverpool’s still in this situation come May, the club has to look around for a top-class manager brave/dumb enough to try and put it right (there’s always a surplus of them…). And I can’t believe it’s come to the point where I’ve written that sentence.

On Liverpool’s left flank… again

Back in early March, I took a look at Liverpool’s record depending on who started on the left. I reckon it’s worth updating that post, given the continuing emergence of Insua, more starts for Benayoun, and much less of Babel and Dossena. Fair warning: this is long, even for me.

The previous post went up to Sunderland on 3/3. Those numbers are here, and the new additions are above in red for comparison. There were 13 matches over this stretch.

Aurelio/Riera:
2-1-1; 14 goals for, 8 against
4-4 Arse; 1-3 Chelsea; 5-0 Villa; 4-1 United
9-4-0; 20 goals for, 6 against
1-0 Real; 2-0 Chelsea; 1-1 Everton; 0-0 Stoke; 1-0 Marseille; 0-0 Fulham; 2-0 Bolton; 3-0 West Brom; 1-1 Atletico; 1-0 Chelsea; 3-2 City; 3-1 PSV; 2-1 United

Aurelio/Benayoun
3-1-0; 13 for, 5 against
3-1 Spurs; 3-0 West Ham; 3-0 Newcastle; 4-4 Chelsea
1-0-0; 1 for, 0 against
1-0 Liege aet

Insua/Benayoun
2-0-0; 5 for, 1 against
2-0 West Brom; 3-1 Hull

Insua/Riera:
1-0-0; 4 for, 0 against
4-0 Blackburn
3-1-0; 8 for, 1 against
2-0 Sunderland; 2-0 PNE; 3-0 Bolton; 1-1 Arsenal

Aurelio/Babel:
1-0-0; 4 for, 0 against
4-0 Real
1-1-1; 2 for, 3 against
0-2 Boro; 1-1 Wigan; 1-0 Pompey

Insua/Dossena
1-0-0; 1 for, 0 against
1-0 Fulham

Dossena/Riera:
N/A
3-5-2; 13 for, 10 against
1-1 City; 0-1 Everton (FA); 2-2 Hull; 3-1 PSV; 0-0 West Ham; 1-2 Spurs; 1-1 Atletico; 3-2 Wigan; 2-0 Everton; 0-0 Stoke

Dossena/Babel:
N/A
2-1-1; 8 for, 8 against
3-2 Pompey; 1-1 Everton (FA); 2-4 Spurs (CC); 2-1 Marseille

Dossena/Benayoun:
N/A
2-1-0; 3 for, 1 against:
2-1 Boro; 1-0 Sunderland; 0-0 Liege

Insua/Babel:
N/A
2-0-0; 8 for, 2 against
5-1 Newcastle; 3-1 Blackburn

Insua/El Zhar:
N/A
1-0-0; 2 for, 1 against
2-1 Crewe (CC)

Dossena/Keane
N/A
0-1-0; 0 for, 0 against
0-0 Villa

• Dossena didn’t start at left back after the 1-1 draw against City on 2/22. He started once – as a winger against Fulham after two goals in two substitute appearances against Real and United. And he played a grand total of about 30 minutes in three trips off the bench after that.

• Liverpool won every game Insua started from late December on, and only dropped points in the 1-1 draw at Arsenal. 11 matches: 10 wins, 1 draw. Amazing… even though admittedly that stat’s a bit misleading. The updated matches were against Fulham, Hull, West Brom, and Blackburn (no disrespect, but not quite a murderer’s row) and Liverpool won 10 of these last 13 matches anyway. But still. 10 wins, one draw.

• On first glance it’s surprising that Babel only started one match, Liverpool won 4-0, and he still rarely featured. But that’s evidence that stats aren’t the end all, be all. Babel hasn’t impressed this season – I’m struggling to pick a star moment outside of the winner in the 2-1 victory over United in September, despite over 40 appearances (most as a late sub). Maybe the assist for the third goal in the Real rout. And that’s why he seems the most likely departure, especially since he should still recoup a fair bit of his original fee.

• Benayoun didn’t start on the left from the 8/27 late win over Liege until the second CL leg against Chelsea on 4/8. From there, he was the most frequent starter on the left – probably thanks to Benayoun being in outstanding form as well as Riera fading as the season went on.

Either way, the number of players deployed at this position shows it’s one of Liverpool’s main weaknesses. Liverpool used five different left wingers – six if you count Keane’s cameo against Villa – and only Benayoun and Riera came close to making the position their own.

And as much as I like both, they’re probably squad players in a title-winning team. That comes off much harsher than I mean it to; both have been important in a very good Liverpool team, and both merit a place in the squad. I certainly wouldn’t sell either. Riera’s definitely had some highs, but his inconsistency means that competition’s needed. And Benayoun, while in fantastic form, is not a left-sided player. He’s best as a backup for Gerrard in the hole and competing with Kuyt on the right. And deployed on the left as a last resort.

Aurelio has been the better partner for Yossi because of Fabio’s ability to get forward and stay wide while Benayoun cuts in and operates centrally. And that’s why it worked a treat against the likes of West Ham and Newcastle, where Liverpool was on the front foot for long stretches, and less so against a team with the firepower of a Chelsea.

Insua’s not bad at getting forward in his own right, but due to his age (and, I’m assuming, Benitez’s instructions), he’s a bit more conservative and restrained in attack. But, and again, no disrespect meant, it’s not easy to get a good handle on his and Benayoun’s capabilities when the pairing’s only been deployed against West Brom and Hull.

Yes, Benitez doesn’t often play with ‘out-and-out’ left wingers, especially in the 4-2-3-1. You can see it in the way Riera hugged the touchline less and less as the season went on. The fullback usually provides the width, and I don’t disagree with that. But, at the least, Liverpool needs a player that’s predominately left-footed, if not at least capable of whipping in crosses with his left. The player has to be able to cut in, but also able to stay wide if the fullback’s penned back, which will happen against the top clubs. The need for versatility is one of the drawbacks inherent in Benitez’s preferred fluid style, I guess.

And, although I doubt this inference will be welcomed by all Liverpool fans, it would explain the continued pursuit of Gareth Barry. Which wouldn’t be bad business, although I still think there are better options; whatever the fee, it’d be less than last summer, and probably cheaper than other rumored targets. However, I think it’s just as crucial the player be able to run at and beat his man. Which is why Babel’s inability to progress is so frustrating. On paper, he’s the type of player Liverpool needs – only he cannot deliver on anywhere near a consistent basis. And it’s not as if players like that are ubiquitous.

This is why left winger is the position I’m watching all summer. It’s the one place I think Liverpool definitely needs improvement to win the title. A back-up striker would be nice, as would a right back to compete with Arbeloa. But, worst-case scenario, N’Gog will be a year older (and Voronin could always come back from loan!), while Degen might get fit (*snicker*) and Darby’s been touted for a step up in the past (plus, he’s English!). I’m not even suggesting replacing Alonso because I’m not even contemplating him leaving.

But Dossena and Babel are seemingly on their way out, and will probably be pushed to increase Rafa’s budget. Neither are lost causes – Babel is still young and it was Dossena’s first season in England – but neither have been good enough and money’s most likely needed. Would I be disappointed if neither went and Liverpool kept basically the same squad? Probably, but I don’t think that’d mean a title challenge is impossible. But, as this year proved, it’ll be very, very difficult, and it’s not likely that Liverpool will take 12 points off United and Chelsea in subsequent seasons.

Long story short, more damage must be done against teams content to sit back, especially at Anfield, and improving this position is probably the best way to remedy that problem.

Liverpool’s left flank

From the comments in the last post:

Marlon said...

I thought it was interesting that while Aurelio might still be a better technical player than Insua, when Insua plays it seems to make Riera play better

Very interesting. The flanks have arguably been Liverpool’s longest-standing concern, so the records of each pairing would seem a meaningful stat. It doesn’t tell the whole story, as there were nine other players on the pitch, but there are a few trends.

Aurelio/Riera:
9-4-0; 20 goals for, 6 against
1-0 Real; 2-0 Chelsea; 1-1 Everton; 0-0 Stoke; 1-0 Marseille; 0-0 Fulham; 2-0 Bolton; 3-0 West Brom; 1-1 Atletico; 1-0 Chelsea; 3-2 City; 3-1 PSV; 2-1 United

Insua/Riera:
3-1-0; 8 for, 1 against
2-0 Sunderland; 2-0 PNE; 3-0 Bolton; 1-1 Arsenal

Dossena/Riera:
3-5-2; 13 for, 10 against
1-1 City; 0-1 Everton (FA); 2-2 Hull; 3-1 PSV; 0-0 West Ham; 1-2 Spurs; 1-1 Atletico; 3-2 Wigan; 2-0 Everton; 0-0 Stoke

Dossena/Babel:
2-1-1; 8 for, 8 against
3-2 Pompey; 1-1 Everton (FA); 2-4 Spurs (CC); 2-1 Marseille

Aurelio/Babel:
1-1-1; 2 for, 3 against
0-2 Boro; 1-1 Wigan; 1-0 Pompey

Dossena/Benayoun:
2-1-0; 3 for, 1 against:
2-1 Boro; 1-0 Sunderland; 0-0 Liege

Insua/Babel:
2-0-0; 8 for, 2 against
5-1 Newcastle; 3-1 Blackburn

Insua/El Zhar:
1-0-0; 2 for, 1 against
2-1 Crewe (CC)

Aurelio/Benayoun
1-0-0; 1 for, 0 against
1-0 Liege aet

Dossena/Keane
0-1-0; 0 for, 0 against
0-0 Villa

• Liverpool hasn’t lost when Insua’s started. I couldn't be happier to see him establishing himself this season.

• Aurelio/Riera is the big game pairing, but we knew that. They’re also seemingly better for the team in the “big games” than against the likes of Stoke and Fulham.

• Those stats don’t bode well for Dossena.

• Riera’s first game was against United on 9/13. Benayoun hasn’t started on the left since Riera arrived.