Visualized: Liverpool 6-0 Aston Villa

Previous Match Infographics: Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Matches like that are hard to analyze, because it's hard to know just how much of that was lucky, how much was a fluke. It was fairly close in the first half, but quickly got out of hand in the second. We saw the best of Liverpool – frequently mediocre, but surprisingly competent on their day and when key players are fit – and the absolute worst of Aston Villa, who aren't especially impressive on their few-and-far-between good days.

My suspicion, unfortunately, is quite a bit of that won't happen often.

Liverpool's shooting accuracy – 81.8%, nine on-target from 11 in total – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since I began tracking in 2012-13. The previous high was 75% in the 0-1 loss at Hull last season, where Liverpool put nine tame shots on-target and failed to score with any of them. The previous high where Liverpool actually scored was 69.2% in the 5-3 win at Stoke in 2013-14. Since 2012-13, Liverpool have shot better than 50% in just 12 league matches:



12 times in 140 matches.

Liverpool's goal conversion percentage – 60%, six goals from ten non-blocked shots – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since 2012-13. The previous high was 55.6% at Norwich last month, which is the only other match over 50% during these three-plus seasons. Incidentally, Liverpool's third-best goal conversion percentage this season is 27.27% at City, which is a bit of a drop from the other two. And Liverpool's season-long average is a horrific 13.21% – better than 2014-15's 12.21% but vastly worse than 2013-14's 19.35%.

The last time Liverpool scored three goals from outside the box in a league match was 5-2 at Norwich in September 2012, Luis Suarez with all three. Prior to yesterday's match, Liverpool had scored just five goals from outside the box in the league in total: Coutinho at Stoke, Milner v Villa, Coutinho at Chelsea, Origi v West Brom, and Firmino v Arsenal. Liverpool scored eight last season, 17 in 2013-14, and 12 in 2012-13. Unsurprisingly, Luis Suarez accounted for a good amount of them in both 2012-13 and 2013-14 (five and seven, respectively).

The last time Liverpool had six different goalscorers in a league match was September 1989, when eight different players scored in the 9-0 win over Crystal Palace. The last time it happened in any competition was November 2000, with six different goalscorers in an 8-0 league cup win at Stoke.

And Liverpool did all of this in attack with no player taking more than two shots. Nine different players took at least one. Seven hit the target, six scored. There will be days where one player's "on" (I'm looking at you, Daniel). There will be fewer where pretty much everyone's on.

At the other end of the pitch, Liverpool have allowed their opponents one or no shots on-target in just four other league matches this season: one v Manchester United (United scored), one at Newcastle (Newcastle scored), one at Stoke, and zero v Swansea.

Six opposition shots in total was joint-second lowest in a league match this season. The low was against West Brom, where West Brom took just four shots and scored twice. The three other matches where Liverpool allowed six were at Norwich (Liverpool conceded four), at Watford (Liverpool conceded three), and at Newcastle (Liverpool conceded two).

Even when Liverpool have allowed few shots, and/or the opposition attack has offered next to nothing, Liverpool have often found a way to screw it up.

There was a lot that was unusual about Liverpool yesterday, mostly in attack, but also in defense. And I'm afraid that Aston Villa's being really really really really bad at football had a lot to do with it.

Nonetheless, it still seems clear that Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi returning to the side will make Liverpool a much better football team. Both strikers scored, Coutinho created two assists, Firmino led the team in key passes. Having Sturridge, Coutinho, and Firmino on the pitch together will not only make Liverpool more potent, but also help to cover up some of the deficiencies in defense. I'm not comparing Liverpool's current side, or even Liverpool's potential, to 2013-14, but 2013-14 proved that a good attack can make up for defensive frailties and mistakes.

Liverpool are yet to lose when Daniel Sturridge starts this season (five matches, with three wins and two draws), and have lost just three of the 17 matches he's started over the last two seasons: at Manchester City, at Besiktas (in extra time), and v Manchester United last season. In total, Liverpool's record with him starting since 2014-15 is 11W-3D-3L. Six of those were cup ties, and I'm well aware you don't get points in cup ties, but that's an average of 2.12 points-per-game. That's an awful lot better than Liverpool's record without him.

As we're all well aware, Liverpool have found ways to fail against really really bad football teams before. Improvement is still improvement, and you can only beat what's in front of you. Liverpool haven't done that enough this season. And Liverpool certainly did yesterday.

Liverpool 6-0 Aston Villa

Goals:
Sturridge 16'
Milner 25'
Can 58'
Origi 63'
Clyne 65'
Toure 71'

Who would have guessed that having both Sturridge and Coutinho in Liverpool's starting XI would improve Liverpool's goal-scoring?

Also, Aston Villa are really bad.

It was a lot like the last time that Liverpool scored six goals. Which, incidentally, was also the last time that Daniel Sturridge started. A couple of early goals, with Sturridge playing a crucial part, then an excessive mauling as the opposition fell apart, repeatedly picked apart on counter-attacks.

Liverpool weren't even that good, at least in the first half, but Liverpool were clinical. That's been the difference all season long, why we've seen 4-1 City and 6-1 Southampton, but also 0-2 Newcastle and 0-1 United and and...

Daniel Sturridge has a lot to do with that. But so did Philippe Coutinho. His perfect cross assist for Sturridge's headed opener – which looked an awful lot like Milner's cross to Firmino for Liverpool's first against Sunderland. He won the the free kick for Liverpool's second, one of those dangerous positions where if it's on goal, it's often in, even if no one touches it. Which is exactly what happened when Milner stepped up. And then another assist, a divine throughball to Origi, during the second half demolition.

You've got to have someone who can play the damned piano. Ideally, more than one person. And Coutinho with attackers to pass to – you know, like Daniel Sturridge, or even Divock Origi – is much much better than Coutinho attempting to score unlikely goals from any and all angles from Benteke's layoffs.

So while Liverpool weren't any great shakes in the first half – at least, like we've seen before, Liverpool were unable to convert possession into lots of chances – Liverpool took the chances they had. That Sturridge seized Liverpool's first chance is no small matter; confidence is intangible and often inexplicable, but having Sturridge score early clearly boosted the side. And while last week demonstrated that 2-0 can be a dangerous lead, even against horrific opposition who'd done nothing in the opposition half, Liverpool made the match absolutely certain early in the second half.

We saw goals from two Liverpool strikers: Sturridge's opener and Origi for the fourth. We saw a goal from a wonderful through-ball and when one-on-one with the keeper: Again, Origi. We saw set play goals: Milner's direct free kick and Kolo's (KOLO'S!!!) header from Henderson's corner. We saw goals from crosses: Sturridge's opener and Kolo's header. We saw goals from pressing: Can's game-killing third. We saw goals from counter-attacks: Can, Origi, and Clyne. We saw goals from outside the box: Can, Origi, and Milner.

We saw Liverpool take just 11 shots, but nine of those 11 shots were on-target, and six ended in goals. We saw Liverpool create three clear-cut chances for the first time since beating City 4-1 in November, and Liverpool scored all three, the first time this season that Liverpool have scored three clear-cut chances in the league.

We saw Aston Villa take just six shots – half of them after Liverpool already had a six-goal lead – with only one on-target. We saw Villa offer absolutely nothing, partly because Villa don't have much to offer, but also because Liverpool didn't allow them opportunities to offer anything. Even when Villa had too much first-half possession in Liverpool's half, they couldn't do much with it.

Today truly couldn't have gone any better.

And yes, Aston Villa, now assuredly relegated, had more than a bit to do with today's successes. Still, Villa had been "in-form" coming into today, at least for Villa, with two wins and two draws in the last five matches, a vastly better short-term record than Liverpool's.

Liverpool owed Aston Villa that. Liverpool have been frustrated by almost-as-bad Villa sides in the past. Liverpool have dropped points to Villa in each of the last nine seasons; the last time Liverpool did the double over Villa was 2005-06. There's 1-2 in the FA Cup semifinal last year, 2-2 in 2013-14, 1-3 in 2012-13, etc., etc.

No matter the opposition, this was an important win. With Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi returning (and, of course, if they can stay fit), this can be a form-changing win, especially as Liverpool's fixture list starts to lighten. But Liverpool have been ruthless before, and Liverpool have regressed before. 6-1 over Southampton was followed by 0-2 Newcastle and 0-0 Sion; 5-4 over Norwich was followed by 0-1 Stoke, 0-0 West Ham, and 0-2 Leicester.

This is just a start, and Liverpool still need to build on this. Liverpool need to ensure this isn't another one-off false dawn. But, at the very least, they've again shown what they're capable of doing.

Liverpool at Aston Villa 02.14.16

9:05am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-2 Liverpool (h) 09.26.15
1-2 Villa (n; FA Cup) 04.19.15
2-0 Liverpool (a) 01.17.15
0-1 Villa (h) 09.13.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 West Ham aet (a); 2-2 Sunderland (h); 0-2 Leicester (a)
Villa: 2-0 Norwich (h); 0-2 West Ham (a); 0-4 City (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Firmino 6; Coutinho 5; Milner 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Origi, Skrtel 1
Villa: Ayew 5; Gestede 4; Carles Gil, Lescott, Sinclair 2; Agbonlahor, Grealish, Richards 1

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can Milner
Lallana Firmino Coutinho

Whoa. Liverpool are surprisingly close to fielding an honest-to-goodness first choice XI.

Lovren and Allen have short-term injuries to go with the well-remembered long-term: Ings, Gomez. Skrtel's just back in training, probably not ready to start until Thursday. Coutinho, Sturridge, and Origi are still a bit away from full match fitness.

But we're close. Closer than we've been since Klopp became manager.

That Sturridge starts, after a two-goal performance in the reverse fixture, isn't entirely out of the question, but it's easier to predict he'll be protected after playing for an hour on Tuesday given all that's come before. Ideally available off the bench, but otherwise saved for Augsburg on Thursday, isn't the worst situation.

Which seems to set up for the above 4-3-3: Henderson, Can, Milner in midfield; Lallana, Coutinho, Firmino in attack. Either Toure or Caulker will partner Sakho, along with the usual suspects at full-back. The speedy, clever triumvirate which – Sturridge aside – has been Liverpool's best attack, Henderson and Milner as runners from midfield (with Milner in his "better" position), and Can at the base. Liverpool will have lots of possession, and this front six gives Liverpool players who can carve through a packed defense, runners from midfield, crosses from full-back (albeit only to Firmino), players who can score from distance. In theory, Liverpool can play long, play close, play wide. Liverpool would have multiple options in attack.

If Coutinho (as well as Origi and Sturridge) isn't fit enough to start, it'll probably be Henderson, Can; Ibe, Lallana, Milner; Firmino. Which isn't ideal, but should still be strong enough at the league's worst team. Even if Liverpool have been failing to meet expectations in attack all season long.

Of course, there's still the elephant in the room. I doubt any outfield player who went for 120 minutes on Tuesday will start tomorrow, but Benteke again merits special mention. At least Benteke got into position to miss five or six good chances against West Ham? Still, he's clearly low on self-belief; it's been 668 minutes since he last scored. Normally, I'm all for playing players against their former club, but it's probably a recipe for disaster given Benteke's form and confidence.

As for Aston Villa. They've been better lately, but "better" is very much a relative term. Still 20th, seven points behind nineteenth and eight points from safety, but with two wins (and two draws) from the last five league matches, after going winless in the previous 19, their last (and only) league victory in 2015 this season coming on opening day.

That's more points from their last five games than Liverpool have taken.

With Jordan Ayew still suspended after a red card against West Ham, Villa's XI should look a lot like last week's. Bunn; Richards, Okore, Lescott, Cissokho; Bacuna, Gana, Westwood, Veretout; Carles Gil; Agbonalor. Grealish, Kozak, Sanchez, Hutton, Traore, and Amavi are injured; Gestede's doubtful. Agbonlahor has punished Liverpool multiple times – he absolutely loves playing against Liverpool – but I'd still rather him than Gestede, who absolutely trucked Liverpool in the reverse fixture, scoring both of Villa's goals (unsurprisingly, from crosses) and too close to a third on a couple of other occasions. Only the brilliance of Daniel Sturridge spared Liverpool's blushes. Liverpool, you may remember, remain fairly bad when defending crosses.

Villa will most likely play like a lot of opponents have played – and succeeded – against Liverpool this season. Sit deep, clog their defensive half, soak up pressure, look to counter attack. Take Villa's win over Norwich last Saturday as an example: Norwich were better for longer stretches – more possession, more shots, more shots on-target, a ton of corners – but conceded from a set play, then from a goalkeeper mistake. Conceded from the first shot on-target, conceded from an own goal. Two Villa shots on-target, two Villa goals. Liverpool are more than capable of doing similar.

So, as usual, the match will be decided by what Liverpool does. Whether Liverpool put their inevitable possession to good use, whether Liverpool can create chances and take said chances, whether Liverpool can stay secure and smart at the back. Whether we get Good Liverpool or Bad Liverpool.

That Liverpool's key attackers are finally close to fitness at least gives us more hope of seeing Good Liverpool.

Visualized: Liverpool 3-2 Aston Villa

Previous Match Infographics: Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



Scoring goals makes all the difference. Who would've guessed?

Philippe Coutinho's still shooting, probably too much. His seven shots led the team, again, as he has (at least jointly) in each match he's played this season. But he also created three chances – the same total he created in his previous five league matches combined – leading to two assists. Liverpool desperately need Coutinho to create, much more than Liverpool need Coutinho to shoot.

Daniel Sturridge had a lot to do with that. That Liverpool finally have a finisher the caliber of Daniel Sturridge has the potential to make all the difference. Each finish was delightfully spectacular in different ways: the first a volley few are capable of, the second a cool, placed, weaker-foot strike on the run.

It's no coincidence that both of Sturridge's goals came from one-two passing with one of Liverpool's more advanced midfielders, getting behind defenders and on the end of dangerous balls into the penalty box.

Via @LiverpoolGIFs: [Sturridge's first] [Sturridge's second]

None of Liverpool's strikers made these runs last season, we rarely saw this type of final third combination play last season. And without Sturridge's goals, this match probably finishes level, at best, if not a 1-2 Liverpool loss. Liverpool are still conceding goals they shouldn't concede – either Sakho or Can could have prevented the first; there was little anyone could do about the second if Amavi's perfect cross isn't blocked – but at least Liverpool are scoring more than once, for a change.

It's not as if Sturridge was the sole player to play well; he didn't even have his best game, still clearly a bit rusty and very much tiring by the time he scored his second. It's not as if Sturridge was the sole reason Liverpool won, even if he was the biggest reason. He provided the most important piece of the puzzle, the piece Liverpool had lacked during the long fall, winter, spring, and summer of our discontent.

Lucas' outstanding performance is definitely worth highlighting as well. Saturday saw the first time a Liverpool player completed 100 or more passes since the 0-1 home loss to Aston Villa almost exactly a year ago, when Henderson completed 111 of 121 and Lovren completed 100 of 118. To be fair, Gerrard completed 99 of 117 in the 0-0 at West Brom last April, but we haven't seen that arbitrary yet magical triple-digits in 41 league matches.

That Liverpool lost the last time a player completed 100 passes demonstrates it's not the be-all, end-all, obviously. You still need the players ahead to actually put the ball in the net. But it's helpful, especially when Liverpool's midfield has often resembled a smoldering tire fire over the last few months. And couple Lucas' 100 passes with 11 successful tackles – six in Villa's half – and two interceptions – both in Villa's half – and it shows a level of control in midfield that Liverpool have long lacked.

Lucas' defensive work-rate in Villa's half also demonstrates that Liverpool actually can and will press on occasion. Eight of Liverpool's 28 successful tackles, seven of 15 interceptions, and 17 of 52 ball recoveries came at that end of the pitch. Liverpool pressure was crucial in leading to the game-winning third goal: Sturridge, Coutinho, and Milner's harrying forcing Villa into a giveaway on which Sturridge and Coutinho deftly capitalized. It also led to three of Liverpool's four late chances, which Coutinho (from a direct free kick), Ings, and Sturridge failed to convert. We didn't see much pressure in the first half, when Liverpool simply monopolized the ball – 72.4% possession is the most in a half since that 0-0 at West Brom last April, only surpassed by that and the second half in that 0-1 versus Villa – but Liverpool stepped it up in the second, when Villa were tiring and when Liverpool desperately needed goals.

As more than a few people have mentioned, yes, this all happened against Aston Villa, currently 18th in the league, having won just one of their first seven league matches. I suspect you saw multiple people tweet that Liverpool's last five league wins, all of Liverpool's league wins since beating Swansea on March 16, came against sides currently 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, and relegated QPR. This is obviously concerning.

I've referenced the 0-1 to Aston Villa and 0-0 at West Brom a couple of times so far, the similarities in both Liverpool's passing and possession. Both of those sides were just as bad as Villa were on Saturday. And Liverpool lost and drew those two matches, held scoreless in both.

Liverpool have found multiple innovative new ways to lose to teams worse than Aston Villa were on Saturday over the last calendar year. Clearly, Liverpool still need to prove capable of repeating it against better opposition. Liverpool at least took all three points, playing fairly well. Regardless of opposition, that hasn't happened enough since the start of last season.

The difference between yesterday and those aforementioned fixtures against Villa and West Brom? Yes, mostly Daniel Sturridge, but also better shooting in general. Balotelli led Liverpool's line in both of those matches. Coutinho took the most shots in both of those matches. Liverpool put a combined six of 40 shots on target in those two matches, with 23 of those 40 shots came from outside the box. Liverpool took better shots on Saturday, Liverpool's creators created better shots on Saturday, Liverpool put more of those shots on target.

Ings and Benteke are still better options than Liverpool had last season. I still believe that both, as they acclimatize to their teammates and Liverpool's playing style, will provide a better chance for success if – every deity forbid – Sturridge gets injured again than Balotelli, Borini, Lambert et al did last season.

Sturridge scoring, Coutinho creating, Lucas providing the platform, better balance in midfield with both Coutinho and Milner ahead of a single defensive midfielder, Ings' work-rate, Moreno's width on the left stretching Villa's defense. All of these factors played some role in Liverpool's victory. Still, Daniel Sturridge, even at, say, 80% of his best, remains the most irreplaceable.

Liverpool 3-2 Aston Villa

Goals:
Milner 2'
Sturridge 59' 67'
Gestede 66' 71'

Daniel Sturridge simply did not let Liverpool be Liverpool today. He wasn't anywhere near his peak, but he still scored two outstanding goals, which made all the difference. When you have a world class finisher, you have a chance.

Despite scoring the fastest goal in the Premier League this season, the first half was all too familiar. Milner's good touch and pinpoint left-footed finish from just outside the box was really Liverpool's only good opportunity of the half. Liverpool had more than 72% possession in the first half, but created just six chances, took just seven shots.

Had Aston Villa capitalized on Liverpool mistakes the way that Norwich or Carlisle had, then we'd have been level at halftime, or Liverpool would have been losing. The two best chances after Liverpool's opener were both from the away side, both featuring the all-too-typical tentative, wacky, and weak defending. First, Emre Can's attempted clearance fell straight to Gestede, spinning a shot just wide. Then, pinball in the box after Mignolet half-cleared Hutton's dangerous cross on the break, but it ended with Westwood's shot deflected just wide. Liverpool didn't get those lucky bounces in the last two matches.

Aston Villa weren't and aren't good, while Liverpool pressed well, dominated the ball, and seemed in control, if customarily blunt. But Liverpool are rarely actually in control.

Thankfully, Liverpool realized the need to up the pressure in the second half. And Daniel Sturridge came to life accordingly, with important cameos from Milner and Coutinho. Milner provided a delightful chip into the space for Sturridge to jaw-droppingly volley in the 59th; a one-two with Coutinho after Sturridge pounced on a Villa mistake, featuring a delightful back heel to put Sturridge through, Sturridge smartly continuing his run into the box and angling a right-footed finish past Guzan.

But because Liverpool is still Liverpool, Villa reduced arrears not long after Liverpool took a two-goal lead. Both times. Both scored by Gestede, both goals from crosses, both crosses from Villa's fullbacks, both Liverpool's left- and right-sided center-backs embarrassed in the process. Can completely lost Gestede on Hutton's low cross in the 66th, allowing a tap-in. Five minutes later, Gestede absolutely trucked Sakho to reach Amavi's deep cross, hammering an unstoppable header over Mignolet.

12 minutes, four goals, two for each side. It wasn't quite 2013-14's free-scoring chaos, but it brought back memories.

Thankfully, Liverpool sorted themselves out after conceding that second, led by Lucas seemingly everywhere in Liverpool's half. Villa had more possession, Liverpool sat deeper, but the away side were limited to a Richards set play half-chance over the final 20 minutes, while three mistakes from Villa when pressed by Liverpool's attackers should have led to a fourth home goal. But Ings saw his shot blocked, Sturridge had one blocked while Guzan smartly saved the other. Adding a fourth on the counter, thanks to pressing, really would have brought back memories of 2013-14.

No matter. Liverpool held on, Liverpool won its first league match since August 17, Liverpool scored three goals for the first time since February. Liverpool beat Aston Villa at Anfield for the first time since 2010. Sure, Aston Villa weren't very good, but some not-very-good Aston Villa teams have taken points off of better Liverpool teams in recent meetings.

Today wasn't all ills cured, all evil exorcised. There are still issues up front, and there are certainly still issues at the back. But it was better, mainly because Sturridge, but also because of Danny Ings, also because of a more cohesive midfield, with Coutinho slightly deeper and more creative, with Milner more influential, with one of Lucas' best games since Rodgers became manager. It wasn't a dire, dreary, death-warmed-over 1-0, 1-1, or 0-1. For a change.

There's still a long way to go before Liverpool reach where Liverpool need to be. There's still a long way to go for Rodgers to earn a reprieve. Liverpool will have to do it against much better opposition; after Sion in the Europa League on Thursday, it's going to get a lot harder: a Merseyside derby, an international break, a resurgent Tottenham.

But today was a start.

Liverpool v Aston Villa 09.26.15

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Villa (n; FA Cup) 04.19.15
2-0 Liverpool (a) 01.17.15
0-1 Villa (h) 09.13.14
2-2 (h) 01.18.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Carlisle aet (h) [3-2 pens]; 1-1 Norwich (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Villa: 1-0 Birmingham (h); 0-1 West Brom (h); 2-3 Leicester (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 2; Coutinho, Ings 1
Villa: Sinclair 2; Gil, Gestede, Grealish 1

Referee: Jon Moss

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Can Skrtel Sakho
Clyne Milner Lucas Moreno
Coutinho
Sturridge Ings

It's match #3 in Liverpool's crucial four-match home stretch. Maybe they'll finally win one of them in 90 minutes.

Liverpool aren't helped by the fact that injuries are piling up. Benteke, Firmino, and Lovren join Henderson on the sidelines, the former out for at least another week with a hamstring problem, the latter two probably out as long as Liverpool's captain, for the next six-to-eight weeks.

Nonetheless, it's hard to see Liverpool deviating from the three-at-the-back system used in the last two matches. Because, even though Liverpool continue to disappoint, they have been marginally better in this system. No matter the opposition – and Liverpool's two opponents haven't been impressive, to say the least – 70 shots over 210 minutes combined is better than what we saw before. Even if, say, 55-60 of those shots didn't really trouble the opposition.

There seem to be two possible variations to the formation: 3-5-2, with Sturridge and Ings up front, or 3-4-2-1, with Coutinho and Lallana behind Sturridge as a lone striker. I'd prefer the former, simply because Liverpool look more dangerous with two up top and Sturridge is better with a strike partner, but Rodgers may decide to have more bodies in midfield considering Villa's likely 4-3-3 formation. Not that Coutinho and Lallana do much effective tracking back, mind.

Maybe Liverpool revert to 4-3-3 or a 4-diamond-2, with Can moving back into midfield. Maybe Allen keeps his place ahead of Lucas in the above formation. But those possibilities seem far less likely. Three at the back seems Rodgers' safety net, just as it was during the one reasonably decent run of form last season. And Liverpool very much need a safety net at the moment.

Standing in Liverpool's way? Tim Sherwood. Sigh. And Aston Villa, a side that routinely foils Liverpool, no matter their manager or each's respective form.

Because, so far, Aston Villa are one of the few sides that actually look worse than Liverpool. They earned a narrow, unimpressive victory in the League Cup on Tuesday, but haven't won a league match since opening day, since barely beating Bournemouth (sound familiar?). That was the only league match Villa have kept a clean sheet in, conceding twice against Palace and Sunderland, thrice against Leicester, and once against fellow strugglers West Brom.

With Agbonlahor absent (as is Gary Gardner and Jonas Okore), Sherwood will have to start either Scott Sinclair or Rudy Gestede as the main striker. Sinclair could be useful up front on the counter, but knowing Liverpool's weaknesses, I'd expect it to be Gestede, flanked by Sinclair and Jack Grealish, a front three that looks an awful lot like the Benteke-Agbonlahor-Weimann trio which routinely caused Liverpool problems in recent seasons.

Otherwise, their lineup seems fairly predictable, with a probable XI of Guzan; Bacuna, Richards, Lescott, Amavi; Westwood, Sanchez, Gil; Sinclair, Gestede, Grealish. Midfielder Idrissa Gueye and winger Adama Traore are both in contention, both available after respective from injuries, but Sherwood seems likely to stick with the devil he knows.

Regardless, Villa are still Villa and Liverpool are still Liverpool. And Villa have taken points off of Liverpool at Anfield in each of the last four seasons, winning twice and drawing twice since 2011-12.

That's unacceptable tomorrow, not with Liverpool still winless since August 17 – needing penalties to advance past Carlisle doesn't count as a win; that match finished level. Not with Liverpool winless in its last four league matches; Liverpool haven't failed to win five consecutive league matches since Rodgers' first five league matches. That's what this has come to. A Liverpool side as bad and broken as the one Rodgers inherited in 2012.

The clamor surrounding Brendan Rodgers is already at fever pitch. Another failure tomorrow is out of the question. Liverpool simply must win.

Liverpool 1-2 Aston Villa

Goals:
Coutinho 30'
Benteke 36'
Delph 54'

You couldn't have asked for a better encapsulation of this season.

Liverpool started slowly, second best against a side you'd expect them to take the game to. Liverpool, debilitated by injuries, were nowhere near their strongest XI, not that we've much clue what that strongest XI is. Liverpool couldn't settle on a formation, going from 3-4-2-1 to 4-2-3-1 to 4-3-3 over the course of the match. Liverpool's summer signings, at least those available (Emre Can excluded), were some of Liverpool's most noticeable scapegoats. Liverpool accommodated Gerrard to the detriment of everyone else in the side.

Liverpool somewhat surprisingly provided a ray of hope after 30 minutes, thanks to good work from Sterling and Coutinho and just a little bit of that elusive luck, but that ray was quickly extinguished by the seemingly omnipresent storm clouds. Liverpool tried hard, I guess, to get back into the game after going behind, but it was sound and fury signifying nothing as Liverpool couldn't put enough shots on-target and Liverpool didn't have anywhere near enough firepower in reserve.

Disappointing individual performances, baffling tactical choices, and an inability to change the game from the bench.

And in the end, Liverpool simply weren't good enough.

With Skrtel available, Liverpool reverted to the 3-4-2-1, but with Sterling back as the lone striker rather than Coutinho as a false nine, and with Gerrard shoehorned into the front three. And Liverpool started second best, Aston Villa's pressing disjointing Liverpool's play, Aston Villa controlling possession, the same way that too many sides have troubled Liverpool this season. Liverpool were unable to get the ball forward to the attackers, Liverpool were limited to speculative shots from distance and lucky to keep Aston Villa at bay.

Two changes happened just after the 20th minute: Nathan Baker's injury forced Okore to come on, and Liverpool switched to 4-2-3-1 – a formation we haven't seen since December 9 against Basel – with Can at right back and Gerrard behind Sterling, another example of Rodgers trying to figure where Gerrard would be the most effective. Or do the least damage.

And those changes resulted in the two goals that followed. With more bodies forward, Liverpool finally bundled a way through Villa's defense, preventing Okore from fully clearing, quick passes between Allen, Sterling, and Coutinho, Coutinho's shot fortunately deflecting off Okore's knee.

But Villa responded, five minutes of pressure before Emre Can was caught upfield, Grealish and Delph stormed down the Liverpool's inside right channel into space that'd be covered by a third center-back, Liverpool's two center-backs dropping off and Liverpool's midfielders failing to track the runners, finishing with Benteke perfectly placed for the cutback at the top of the box, which he struck perfectly.

Liverpool had two less-than-half chances in the ten minutes before the break, through a counter and a corner, but Villa finished the half the better side, Liverpool happier to get into the locker room level.

Halftime changes were clearly necessary. But I have no idea why Rodgers thought the best alternative was to bring on Balotelli for Markovic, shifting to 4-3-3. A center-back pairing with Skrtel and Lovren. Gerrard as the deepest midfielder. A lone striker who requires a strike partner to be anywhere near effective. These are the exact tactics which led to Liverpool's worst start in 50 years, which is why it's baffling that Rodgers thought it to be the answer in the match needed to save Liverpool's season after that horrific start. These three formation diagrams are like watching Liverpool go back in time through this dismal year.

So it was little surprise to see Villa take the lead after less than ten minutes: N'Zogbia winning his aerial duel with Gerrard in the middle of the pitch, Benteke exploiting the inside channel that'd be covered by a third center back, getting in behind the defense, Skrtel and Lovren all sorts of pulled out of position as Grealish found Delph running into the box, Delph easily stepping around Lovren to slot past Mignolet.

And then came the empty sound and fury: Villa soaking up Liverpool pressure, Liverpool unable to convert set piece opportunities, Balotelli caught offsides more often than he was able to take a shot (although, admittedly, it's maybe very different had the linesman correctly ruled him onside in the 88th, a move which ended with the ball in Villa's net).

Liverpool's last two changes were Johnson for Allen (shifting Can into midfield) in the 78th and Lambert for Moreno in added time, substitutions seemingly designed to highlight Liverpool's lack of depth rather than proactively alter proceedings. Liverpool's last shot in anger was Lovren nearly booting the ball out of the stadium from more than 35 yards with eight Liverpool's players ahead of him.

More microcosms of this malignant campaign.

So Liverpool were eliminated in the semifinals of both domestic cups. Liverpool were eliminated at the first stage of asking in both European competitions. Liverpool will probably finish fifth, possibly sixth, a place and/or a couple of points outside of the money-spinning Champions League places.

The nearly men. A lot like last year, but a different kind of depressing.

And now, Liverpool have a month of going through the motions before a summer where the players, the manager, and the owners will have a lot of questions to answer and a lot of problems to solve.

Liverpool v Aston Villa 04.19.15

10am ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 01.17.15
0-1 Villa (h) 09.13.14
2-2 (h) 1.18.14
1-0 Liverpool (a) 08.24.13

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-0 Newcastle (h); 1-0 Blackburn (a); 1-4 Arsenal (a)
Aston Villa: 1-0 Spurs (a); 3-3 QPR (h); 1-3 United (a)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-0 Blackburn (a); 0-0 Blackburn (h); 2-1 Palace (a); 2-1 Bolton (a); 0-0 Bolton (h); 2-1 Wimbledon (a)
Aston Villa: 2-0 West Brom (h); 2-1 Leicester (h); 2-1 Bournemouth (h); 1-0 Blackpool (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Sterling 11; Gerrard 10; Henderson 7; Coutinho 6; Lallana, Sturridge 5; Balotelli 4; Lambert, Markovic 3; Moreno 2; Allen, Borini, Can, Johnson, Lovren, Rossiter, Skrtel, Suso 1
Aston Villa: Benteke 11; Agbonlahor 6; Weimann 4; Sinclair 3; Bacuna, Carles Gil, Clark, Cole, Delph, Hutton, Okore 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Can Skrtel Lovren
Johnson Henderson Allen Moreno
Markovic Coutinho Sterling

Skrtel's back, Gerrard's back. Sturridge and Lallana are probably still injured. Jordon Ibe remains cup-tied. Now that Skrtel's back, now that Liverpool has more than one or two center-backs available (in this equation, I'm counting Toure and Lovren as half a center-back each, I guess), will the side revert to the 3-4-3 or stick with the 4-3-3 we've seen for the last two and a half matches?

It'd be a lot easier to guess the 3-4-3 were Ibe available. Rusty after returning from injury against Newcastle, he's still Liverpool's best option at the position. But he's unavailable. Sterling has to play in attack, and Markovic might as well. So Liverpool can push Johnson into the role, shunt Henderson out wide so Gerrard or Lucas could play in midfield, or hand an unlikely start to Manquillo or Flanagan.

Gerrard's return is the other elephant in the room. Is there any room for sentimentality? Start him in midfield, or in attack, or use him as a substitute? I honestly have no idea. I personally wouldn't do the first option, and would lean towards the substitute option, but none are an easy decision. It's the admittedly fading club captain in a Wembley semifinal. If there's a time and place for sentimentality, it might well be tomorrow. It doesn't hurt that he's scored more goals against Villa (13) than any other side.

Or it's all moot and we see the same formation we saw against Newcastle, with Skrtel at center-back, Can at right-back, Markovic or Gerrard for Ibe, and/or possibly Gerrard for Lucas.

Regardless of 3-4-3 or 4-3-3, regardless of the other personnel choices, I'd like to see Coutinho reprise his role as a false nine, with Sterling and either Markovic or Gerrard on the opposite side. It worked well in creating space, in pulling Newcastle's center-backs out of position, and there's a reasonable assumption it could do the same against Villa.

Aston Villa. Perpetually a bane to Liverpool: this season's 1-0 loss at Anfield, last season's 2-2 draw at Anfield and narrow 1-0 away win, the humiliating 3-1 loss at Villa in December 2012. Managed by Tim Sherwood – Tactics Tim! – a perpetual source of amusement, beaten 0-4 in his only meeting against Liverpool.

Carlos Sanchez is unavailable through suspension. Clark, Hutton, Herd, Senderos, and Cissokho will range from "probably out" to "out injured." Agbonlahor and Carles Gil will be late decisions, but both Westwood and Sinclair should be fit.

If Westwood and Sinclair are risked, the most likely Villa XI seems to be Guzan; Bacuna, Vlaar, Baker, Richardson; Cleverley, Westwood, Delph; Sinclair; Weimann, Benteke. Villa have played a 4-4-2 diamond in their last two matches, but could switch to 4-5-1, with Sinclair on the left and Weimann, N'Zogbia or Joe Cole on the right if Agbonlahor's not available to start. But given how important he is to Villa, you'd expect Agbonlahor to be used if at all possible.

Guzan is the better keeper, but Shay Given has been the usual keeper during this FA Cup run. Baker came on after Clark's injury last week, but Okore could be preferred at center-back along with Vlaar. Richardson can play at left-back or in midfield. 19-year-old Jack Grealish could make his third consecutive start anywhere in an attacking midfield role, whether central or on the flank. Tim Sherwood remains Tim Sherwood; we can't predict what he's going to do because I doubt he knows what he's going to do. Since joining Villa, they've played 4-2-3-1, 4-4-2, 4-Diamond-2, and 4-3-2-1. Sherwood will "go for it." His team will try to attack, featuring a lot of long balls to Benteke, try to press a bit, probably be relatively organized in defense, and probably not organized in midfield. As to formation or personnel, your guess really is as good as mine. And as good as Tim's.

Regardless, Aston Villa still have Christian Benteke. With eight goals and two assists in the nine matches he's played since Sherwood became manager. Which is more goals than any Liverpool player except Sterling and Gerrard have scored this season. With three goals in his five matches against Liverpool, albeit none in his last three (although it's worth mentioning he had a game-high five shots in Liverpool's 2-0 win in January).

This will be Aston Villa's first FA Cup match away from home, beating Blackpool, Bournemouth, Leicester and West Brom on route to Wembley. Liverpool were unable to win and unable to score in their two FA Cup home matches, and are still somehow in this position anyway.

But for all of Liverpool's defensive improvement since the New Year, Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in just one of their four away FA Cup matches, last round at Blackburn. Aston Villa have scored in eight goals in Tim Sherwood's 10 matches.

It goes without saying that anything can happen in the cups, at Wembley. It's up to Liverpool to ensure the expected takes place.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa

Previous Match Infographics: Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Swansea (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (a), Basel (h), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke (h), Ludogorets (a), Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Compare Liverpool's basic statistics from Saturday's match to the reverse fixture at Anfield in September.



From that, it's hard to tell which one Liverpool won 2-0 and which one Liverpool lost 0-1. That's what's possible when you don't concede a stupid early goal. Or any stupid goal, for that matter.

Yes, it's yet another example that passing and possession aren't worth a bucket of warm spit if you can't put the ball in the net. But Liverpool's newfound resilience at the other end – clearly aided by Villa's profligacy – is just as important.

Take your chances and don't do anything dumb in defense. Football really is a simple game.

Liverpool limited Villa's chances on the counter, despite the majority of Villa's tackles and interceptions taking place in the middle third of the pitch. Most impressive was how quiet Agbonlahor was, up against Can and Markovic: two players "out of position," new to the Premier League, and 21 and 20 years old respectively. In Agbonlahor's previous four matches against Rodgers' Liverpool, he'd tallied a goal and three assists, averaging 2.25 shots and 1.25 key passes per game. No shots, no key passes yesterday.

There was absolutely no messing about in Liverpool's defense. I don't have all the stats (partly because I'm too lazy to collect them all, partly because they don't go back that far) but I suspect 20 passes is the fewest Skrtel's ever attempted for Liverpool when completing 90 minutes. Rather than passing amongst themselves (or heaven forbid, to Mignolet), Liverpool's defenders immediately got the ball to Lucas, Henderson or Markovic.

Liverpool survived nine corners and seven free kicks in their own half (although only one of those free kicks was in Liverpool's defensive third). I'm knocking on wood as hard as I can while writing this, but Liverpool have conceded just one set play goal in the league since the 1-3 loss at Palace in late November, when Debuchy scored from a free kick on December 21 (although, yes, Liverpool conceded a set play goal in both the Champions League and FA Cup since then).

Liverpool took eight of 12 shots – 66.7% – in the danger zone. Four of those eight Danger Zone shots were on-target, two resulted in goals. And Liverpool didn't take a single shot from outside the box until Lucas' in the 78th: the shot which earned Liverpool the corner that led to the second goal. They may not have created a lot of chances, but the ones they did were good chances.

Both of Liverpool's goals came from quick moves starting in Villa's half: nice interplay and a perfect cross following a throw-in, a short burst after winning possession thanks to Delph's sloppy pass. Unlike in the reverse fixture, Liverpool did not allow Villa the chance to organize their defense on both occasions, and twice took advantage of that disorganization.

Aside from Villa's response between the 60th and 75th minutes, where only Mignolet, Skrtel, Sakho, Henderson, and Villa's wastefulness prevented an equalizer, it was a textbook away performance. Control the tempo, contain the home side, counter when possible, convert your chances.

Yes, it came against a very bad team and could have easily finished 2-1 or 1-1, but it came all the same. It came against a side Liverpool's struggled against in previous meetings, and it's the first time Liverpool's beaten Villa by more than a goal since December 2011 (2W-2D-2L during that stretch prior to Saturday's win). And it came away from Anfield, just the third time this season that Liverpool's won by more than a goal on the road this season (3-0 at Tottenham, 3-1 at Leicester).

Once again – as said after matches against Arsenal, Burnley, Swansea, and Sunderland – that's progress. Now, with Chelsea (twice), West Ham, Everton, and Tottenham to come over the next month, we'll get to see just how much progress Liverpool have actually made.

Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa

Goals:
Borini 24'
Lambert 79'

That was the first time Liverpool have kept three consecutive league clean sheets away from Anfield since the first three away matches of 2008-09.

That was the first time Aston Villa have conceded twice in a match since November 2nd.

That was the first time this season that Liverpool have gotten goals from two different strikers in the same match.

That was the first time that a Liverpool substitute scored in the league since Coutinho's goal at QPR on October 19, 15 matches ago. It was only the second league goal scored by a substitute this season.

So even though Aston Villa threatened more than they probably should have, and teams that aren't Aston Villa – scoreless in their last 522 minutes of league football – probably would have scored at least once, it's hard to complain about that performance.

Liverpool started well, and took advantage of their good start through Borini, his first Liverpool goal since April 2013. Quick passes following a quick throw-in deep in Villa's half, an indescribably perfect cross from Henderson, a smart run from a just-onside Borini for a tap-in. Sterling should have added a second, chipping straight at Guzan when one-on-one with the keeper, but Liverpool did well to nullify any potential response until the last five minutes of the first half, when Mignolet eventually held Sanchez's shot from nowhere and Cleverley ballooned an effort from the left side of the box.

Unlike against Sunderland, Liverpool didn't completely sit back to start the second half, and again should have extended their lead, fingertips from Guzan enough to deny Borini following Skrtel's knockdown of a corner.

But the inevitable Villa response finally came after a double substitution from Paul Lambert on the hour mark, replacing Westwood and Cleverley with Weimann and Carlos Gil, and the subsequent 10-15 minutes were utterly terrifying. A brilliant Mignolet save on Benteke, a Baker free header from a corner narrowly over, Skrtel's outstanding tackle to block Benteke following Delph's run and throughball, Baker whiffing on an open eight-yard effort after Can misjudged a clearing header which fell to Benteke.

I'm still not quite sure how Liverpool survived. But Liverpool somehow survived. I suspect it had something to do with Villa's overall terribleness, but so be it. And Rodgers' double substitution – Lambert and Enrique for Borini and Moreno – solidified the side, helped Liverpool gain some semblance of control, and eventually led to the game-killing second goal.

Aston Villa had apparently cleared the corner that came from Lucas' excellent shot, again saved by Guzan, but Sterling intercepted Delph's sloppy pass and played it quickly for Lambert, who jinked into space and sent a shot from the top of the box into the far corner. Game, set, match. Everything else after that was a formality, highlighted by Ibe's cameo appearance.

So, yeah. Liverpool were helped by the opposition's form, especially impotence in front of goal, as we've said more than a few times this season. But Liverpool still had to be good enough to take advantage of it. They hadn't been able to do so against similarly poor opponents earlier this season. And I'm sure I don't have to remind how awful some of Liverpool's recent matches against Villa have been.

Three consecutive away clean sheets. Five consecutive away wins in all competitions. Since the horrific loss at Crystal Palace, Liverpool have won six, drawn three, and lost just once, an average of 2.1 points per game, keeping five clean sheets in the process. Henderson and Lucas were again outstanding in midfield, as were Can, Sakho, and Skrtel in defense, and Markovic and Moreno going forward. Even Mignolet looked better, no hesitation to come out to claim crosses, and making two very important saves. Rodgers' substitutions, if surprising choices, clearly improved the side.

Liverpool are getting there. It's been a slow, sometimes painful process, and they're not there yet, but at least there's finally some there there.

Liverpool at Aston Villa 01.17.15

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Villa (h) 09.13.14
2-2 (h) 1.18.14
1-0 Liverpool (a) 08.24.13
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.31.13

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Sunderland (a); 2-1 Wimbledon (a); 2-2 Leicester (h)
Villa: 0-1 Leicester (a); 1-0 Blackpool (h); 0-0 Palace (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Gerrard 5; Lallana, Own Goal, Sterling 4; Coutinho, Henderson, Moreno 2; Can, Johnson, Lambert, Markovic, Skrtel, Sturridge 1
Villa: Agbonlahor, Weimann 3; Benteke 2; Clark, Cole, Hutton 1

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Can Skrtel Sakho
Markovic Henderson Lucas Moreno
Coutinho Sterling
Borini

With Sterling back from his winter break and with Gerrard and Lallana injured (even though both are training, the latter much sooner than expected), Liverpool's line-up seems easy to predict. The same XI as against Sunderland, but with Sterling in place of Gerrard.

Liverpool's injury woes are finally easing. Gerrard and Lallana shouldn't be out for long. Sturridge is also back in training, if seemingly still a couple of weeks away. Even Johnson and Lovren are back, although I'd much rather prefer than Liverpool stick with the defense they've deployed recently.

The only other alternative is to bring Manquillo or Johnson (now that he's fit as well) in at right wing-back, shifting Markovic into one of the attacking midfielder slots, and using Sterling as the main striker rather than Borini. Maybe Balotelli or Lambert start up top rather than Borini, but I doubt it. Even if Borini was disappointing in front of goal, he was vastly more creative than the other two had been, is more mobile, and pressed better as well.

And that above XI, aside from the one change, played reasonably well at Sunderland. Sure, Liverpool's shooting was terrible and Sunderland gave Liverpool a few too many frights despite a man-disadvantage in the second half, but Liverpool were at least reasonably creative in the first half and reasonably secure in the second, and that remains progress for this Liverpool.

Tomorrow, they'll be facing a side that plays similarly – happy to concede possession, resilient in defense, low-shooting and low-scoring but still dangerous on the counter – but has given Liverpool loads more problems in the past.

Aston Villa are winless in the league since December 7, drawing three and losing three since, scoring just one goal (in a 1-1 draw against United) in those six matches. Three 0-1 losses, two 0-0 draws, one 1-1 draw. There aren't many goals in Aston Villa matches, for either side.

Since a 1-2 loss to Tottenham on November 2, Villa haven't conceded more than once in a single match. 11 league matches: seven matches where they conceded one goal, four clean sheets. That's terrifying when Liverpool are involved, a side who usually struggle to score on good days against bad defenses and always have the potential to stupidly concede.

No side has scored fewer goals than Villa, 11, and the second-worst, Sunderland, has seven more goals. Only Hull has taken fewer shots and created fewer chances, only Stoke has a worst shooting accuracy. But similar was true prior to the 1-3 loss to Villa in December 2012, a match where Liverpool had its third-highest possession totals since Rodgers became manager, played the most attacking third passes since Rodgers became manger, and took the third-most shots in a match since Rodgers became manager. And conceded three goals on counter-attacks. And only scored because of a fortunate deflection in the 87th minute with the game long since lost.

No matter Villa's scoring woes, no matter Villa's dire league form, they're still the same Aston Villa which have frustrated Liverpool in every match since Rodgers became manager. 1-3 loss, 2-1 win, 1-0 win, 2-2 draw, 0-1 loss. A deep, resilient defense and Agbonlahor, Weimann, and Benteke on the counter, although recently signed Carlos Gil could make his first appearance in place of Weimann in attack.

That set-up will assuredly be the case tomorrow, with a probable XI of Guzan; Hutton, Okore, Baker, Cissokho; Cleverley, Westwood, Delph; Weimann, Benteke, Agbonlahor. Gil could replace Weimann, Carlos Sanchez could replace Cleverley, but the tactics will remain the same. This will be Delph's first match back after a three-match ban. Villa will be missing three important central defenders – Vlaar and Senderos through injury, Clark through suspension – which could work in Liverpool's favor, but probably won't, because Liverpool. As usual, I'm terrified of Agbonlahor, who seemingly lives for punishing Liverpool, but at least the majority of his punishing usually comes at Anfield.

If Liverpool can replicate and improve on its performance against Sunderland, Liverpool should win tomorrow. If only it were that simple. But Liverpool need to perform tomorrow. Not only do Liverpool desperately need results, any results, but tomorrow marks the end of Liverpool's "easy" festive season. The previous four matches were against the 17th, 9th, 20th, and 16th-placed sides. The next four in the league will be against the 7th, 12th (but still a Merseyside Derby), 6th, and 3rd, with League Cup semifinals against Chelsea and an FA Cup match against Bolton thrown in for good measure. Yikes.

Starting tomorrow, the next six weeks will decide whether the few positives of the last few weeks were a fluke or the beginning of something better.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Aston Villa

Previous Match Infographics: Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.





Just to get you in the mood. Because once again, Liverpool versus Aston Villa is just a little bit of history repeating.

The closest comparison is the 1-3 loss to Villa in Rodgers' first season. Until Saturday, that was the most possession Liverpool have had in a single match since Rodgers became manager. The second half of that 1-3 loss saw the most possession Liverpool have had in a single half under Rodgers until the second half on Saturday. Liverpool dominated the shot totals, but put just 24% on target (well below its average for the season), finally scoring with its last effort thanks to a wicked, fortunate deflection. And that abysmal shot accuracy was still massively better than Liverpool on Saturday, where just one of 18 forced Brad Guzan into a save: a simple save, Sakho's header from a corner landing directly in his arms, in the 11th minute.

But there were also similarities to the reverse fixture last season: an early goal for the away side, then defensive shelling, with the hosts unable to make any breakthrough despite a massive shot dominance, mainly because those hosts were unable to put even a marginal proportion of their shots on target. Meanwhile, the away side took five shots, put just one on target, but scored from that one.

The away side has some sort of voodoo over the home side in this fixture. Since 2009-10, Liverpool have won one, drawn two, and lost three of the last six meetings with Aston Villa at Anfield. And at Villa Park, Liverpool have won four and lost just one. Which, I guess, bodes well for the return fixture in a few months.

Liverpool have now conceded the first goal in 25 of the 80 Premier League matches since Rodgers took over. They've won five, drawn eight, and lost 12 when that's happened. Incidentally, the only one of those five wins to come at Anfield was against Newcastle in the last match of last season. The others were at Cardiff, Fulham, Fulham, and (because of course) Aston Villa.

One shot on target out of 18 in total is 5.6% accuracy. The only other matches which came close to that mark since Rodgers became manager both happened in 2012-13: the 0-3 loss at West Brom to start the season, where Liverpool put just two of 16 on target (12.5%), and the 0-0 draw with Stoke, where Liverpool put two of 18 on target (11.1%). Since those matches, nearly two years ago, Liverpool haven't been below 20% accuracy in a match, a mark set at Aston Villa last season, when Liverpool took just five shots but scored with the lone shot on target.

It wasn't as if Liverpool took horrible shots yesterday. We've seen matches where Liverpool were much more desperate and much less judicious (cough Chelsea at Anfield cough), although the shot-by-shot section demonstrates how Liverpool unsurprisingly fired off more shots from distance as time ebbed away. Seven of the 18 efforts came from the danger zone, 10 of 18 from inside the box. Liverpool's shooting accuracy was just that bad. Markovic's two early efforts; Balotelli, Sakho, and Lovren's headers from corners; and Coutinho's shot off the post were all chances that could and probably should have at least hit the target, and on another day, maybe Liverpool would have eked a slightly undeserved draw.

But Michael Caley's Expected Goals map shows that Liverpool had lots of marginal chances, while Villa had the best two chances. And Villa took one of them. That's all they needed.

The major problem was Liverpool's inability to fully utilize its attackers despite that overwhelming dominance in possession. This is depressingly demonstrated by the passing network: thick black lines in midfield and defense, paltry thin lines amongst the front four, both before and after substitutions. Liverpool completed 652 passes in total, but only 139 in the attacking third: just 21.3%. Unsurprisingly, most of those came across the top of the box and on the flanks rather than into the penalty area, creating just one chance inside the area, completing just four passes into the area. That's horrific, and it's not as if Villa had to make multiple tackles or interceptions to prevent those passes, although 34 of their 42 clearances came inside the box.

Undoubtedly, part of that is due to starting three unfamiliar attackers: one making his full debut after missing preseason through injury, one making his first start after two substitute appearances, and one making his second start. All three joined Liverpool this summer. Some disjointed play was to be expected, especially given the troubles Liverpool have had with Saturday's opponents, who defend deep and in numbers, especially after scoring a goal that Liverpool probably should have prevented. But it shouldn't have been that disjointed.

At the very least, this has to be a two-fold learning experience (three-fold if you count again conceding a preventable set play goal): for the new players involved, gelling as an attacking unit, and for the team as a whole, again needing to find a way behind a parked bus. Because it won't be the last time those players have to play together and it won't be the last time that Liverpool see that strategy.

Liverpool 0-1 Aston Villa

Goals:
Agbonlahor 9'

There's just something about Aston Villa. Something soul-killing. Something like death warmed over. I could have sworn I was watching Liverpool's last two matches against Villa at Anfield.

We've spoken before about Liverpool not learning from its mistakes. And we're going to do it again. I've a terrible feeling this won't be the last time either.

A uncoordinated Liverpool, from back to front? Check, just as in the last two meetings at Anfield. An unfamiliar formation, including both Henderson and Gerrard sitting in midfield? Check, same as last season's 2-2 draw. A preventable early goal conceded after Villa surprisingly dominated possession from the start? Check, just as in the last two meetings at Anfield.

Once again, Villa were the more energetic side to start the match, despite being the away side, despite being involved in the relegation battle in each of the last three seasons, despite bringing in just Aly Cissokho and Tom Cleverley this summer, players who seem to be permanent punchlines. Liverpool are supposed to be the team that blitzes its opponent from the opening whistle, not Aston Villa.

And once again, Liverpool conceded the first goal, with multiple chances to stop it from happening. Sakho should have cleared the ball rather than trying to play his way out, allowing Agbonlahor to win the debatable corner. Liverpool could have cleared the first or second ball from the corner; Senderos won his header, hitting Manquillo, with the ball falling perfectly for Agbonlahor, all while Mignolet sat static on his line. Literally, perfectly; Agbonlahor could not have asked for it in a better position, and subsequently jammed the rebound home. Because those are the things that happen in this fixture.

Villa could have easily gone two-up soon after, which would have made today even more like the 1-3 loss almost two years ago, but Senderos missed a completely free header, from yet another set play. After that, Villa were happy to sit back, keep Liverpool at bay, maybe even counter-attack every now and then. There wasn't much counter-attacking (thankfully, I guess), but the defense certainly did its job.

It probably wasn't a good idea to start with three attackers bought this summer: one starting his second match, one making his first full start after two sub appearances, and one making his actual debut. And, unsurprisingly, Balotelli, Lallana, and Markovic played as if they'd never met. Time and time again, each wandered into where the other wanted to play. There was no fluency to their passing, no understanding of each other's movement, no runners beyond when Balotelli came deep, and no link with midfield because Henderson surprisingly sat deeper in a two-man pairing with Gerrard. It's a bad day when you make Philippe Senderos look like an immovable man-mountain.

Absences assuredly hurt, and I'm more than willing to blame the international break for some of Liverpool's problems, but these things happen. That's what a deeper squad was supposed to protect against. Any of Sturridge, Allen, Can, or even Skrtel would have made Liverpool better today. Liverpool missed each and every one of them. As would using Sterling from the start rather than a 61st-minute substitute, even though resting him made a certain amount of sense after playing 180 minutes of internationals and with Ludogorets to come on Tuesday.

Some credit's obviously due to the way Aston Villa defended. Paul Lambert's pretty good at taking points off of the top sides: not just Liverpool but beating Arsenal away, and Chelsea and City at home last season. It's the other matches, where Villa actually has to play some football, where he gets in trouble. Villa's game plan of kicking Mario Balotelli into irrelevancy also worked fairly well (thanks, Lee Mason). Still, Liverpool made it easy for them, whether in committing stupid mistakes, relying on crosses to no one, or attempting incredibly unlikely shots from distance.

Liverpool's switch to the more-familiar 4-3-3 at halftime made the midfield marginally more cohesive, but did nothing to improve the final third play. Until the 81st minute, after Liverpool had again changed formations and brought on Borini and Lambert for Markovic and Balotelli, the best chances remained marginal headers, each one off-target except for Sakho's soft header at Guzan in the 11th minute.



That's really, really, really bad. I've-been-doing-this-for-a-long-time-and-I've-never-seen-such-terrible-shot-accuracy bad.

Last season, set plays were often Liverpool's savior in these situations. That never looked like happening today.

But in the 81st minute, Coutinho was a foot away from providing the get-out-of-jail card, hitting the post with one of his trademark shots from distance – he usually gets one of four or so on-target – with Sterling hitting Henderson with the rebound (it was probably off-target anyway). And then Liverpool resumed its frustrated, Sisyphean struggle, thrashing around unsuccessfully for the final ten minutes, summed up nicely by Lambert trying to break away in injury time, then having to stop when he realized no teammate was anywhere near him. Everyone was a stranger today. It is the fourth match of the season, after all, after an international break no less.

All that complaining aside – and believe me, I could complain a lot more – we knew there would be growing pains and we knew Liverpool could struggle with the aforementioned key players absent. It's small consolation, but Liverpool are still two points better than in the same fixtures last season.

If it's just a one-time occurrence, just Aston Villa voodoo, it's a lot easier to stomach. But I'm still afraid there's more too often. We've already said, already knew that Liverpool will need to be better against the bus parkers. And we're still saying it.

Liverpool v Aston Villa 09.13.14

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
2-2 (h) 1.18.14
1-0 Liverpool (a) 08.24.13
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.31.13
1-3 Villa (h) 12.15.12

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Tottenham (a); 1-3 City (a), 2-1 Southampton (h)
Villa: 2-1 Hull (h); 0-1 Leyton Orient (h); 0-0 Newcastle (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sterling 2; Gerrard, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Villa: Weimann 2; Agbonlahor 1

Referee: Lee Mason

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Manquillo Lovren Sakho Moreno
Gerrard
Henderson Coutinho
Lallana Balotelli Sterling

Well that was a productive international break. Sturridge? Out for two to three weeks. Can? Out for six weeks. Allen? Doubtful with a knee problem. With Johnson, Skrtel, and Flanagan still carrying the injuries incurred before the break. Fantastic.

At least Adam Lallana is finally fit, and looks almost certain to make his debut. And I'm curious to see where it'll be: most likely on the flanks of a 4-3-3, especially given Sturridge's absence, but he also seems capable of filling a midfield role in that formation, similar to how Coutinho plays in the position.

Thanks to Liverpool's new-found depth, even with the aforementioned absences, there are other options. 4-4-2 diamond with Lambert, Sterling, or Markovic playing off Balotelli. 4-3-3 with Markovic on the flank and either Coutinho or Lallana in midfield. Even a 4-2-3-1 with Gerrard and Lucas if Allen's really out, as we saw against Southampton, although I hope this won't be the choice.

That Coutinho travelled to Brazil for this week's friendlies, coming on as a sub against both Colombia and Ecuador, seemingly makes him less likely to start, but given Liverpool's injuries, I expect he'll have to play some role tomorrow. There's also a rumor that Sterling will be rested. Which makes sense, as he's played a ton of matches recently, including two 90 minutes for England over the last week, and Liverpool have its first Champions League match in nearly five years on Tuesday. If that's the case, Markovic seemingly has to start opposite Lallana/Coutinho if it's 4-3-3, or it'll be Balotelli and Lambert in the 4-4-2 diamond with a midfield composed of something like Coutinho, Lallana, Henderson, and Gerrard. Assuming Allen is out with injury and Lucas remains out of favor.

Sure, it's still incredibly early, but Aston Villa are currently a surprising third. It hasn't been the toughest schedule: Hull and Newcastle at home and Stoke away, but they've still taken seven of nine points. The next four matches – at Liverpool, v Arsenal, at Chelsea, v Manchester City – will be far more of a test.

But Villa's still a side that's given Rodgers' Liverpool problems in the past: a supremely disappointing 2-2 draw at Anfield and narrow, fortunate 1-0 win at Villa last season; that 1-3 loss at Anfield in 2012-13. Each of those setbacks featured some self-incurred Liverpool struggles – the insane 4-2-4 formation in the 2-2 draw; supreme defensive shelling after an early goal in the 1-0 win; multiple defensive mistakes in the 1-3 loss – but Villa have a template, and it's a template that other opponents have used to punish Liverpool before. A deep, rigid, determined defense packing the final third, then quick and dangerous with long balls and pace on the counter-attack, especially though Weimann and Agbonlahor.

Tom Cleverley, picked up on loan from United on deadline day, seems the only likely change from Villa's last XI against Stoke, most likely replacing Kieran Richardson. Guzan; Hutton, Senderos, Vlaar, Cissokho; Westwood, Cleverley, Delph; N'Zogbia, Agbonlahor, Weimann. The same eleven players have started all three of Villa's league matches so far. Paul Lambert loves loves loves a stable side. You may also recognize Villa's current left back. No Aly Cissokho jokes please. Ex-Liverpool players, even terrible ones, have a way of punishing their former club.

This will be as much of a test as Tottenham was two weeks ago, albeit a different test. Then, Liverpool's opponents were more talented, but Liverpool faced a side they'd beaten comprehensively in the last two matches. A side that Liverpool matched up well with, a side prone to going "well shit, we're boned again" once Liverpool went two goals ahead.

Tomorrow's opponent plays a very different style, a style different than Liverpool's three previous opponents this season, has troubled Liverpool in all four previous meetings with Brendan Rodgers as manager, and should be confident given their results from the first three matches of the campaign. For the first time this season, for the first time since losing to Chelsea and drawing at Palace, Liverpool will have to slice and dice through a very packed defense while not doing anything stupid in defense.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-2 Aston Villa

Previous Match Infographics: Stoke (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Manchester City (a), Cardiff (h), Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


Liverpool have played 267 matches (194 in the league) since the last time they took a point despite a two-goal deficit. That was December 13, 2008, conceding two early goals to Hull before getting back to 2-2 before halftime, but unable to find a winner in the second half. That match was also at Anfield, a match that Liverpool expected to win going in, a match that Liverpool needed to win. The last time Liverpool won despite a two-goal deficit was 15 matches before that, beating Manchester City 3-2 in October 2008.

Liverpool have been behind by at least two goals in 36 matches over those five years. They were able to pull a goal back in 14 of those 36 matches, but either couldn't get another or conceded a third to the opposition. So, yes, that Liverpool were able to at least get a point on Saturday is progress, is further exorcism of the last four seasons' pain. But they shouldn't have been in that position in the first place.

"They put a lot of men around me. Every time I tried to get the ball under control they swamped me in the first half. It didn't work for myself or the team. I openly admit that it wasn't one of my better 45 minutes, but I improved after the break with the team and we managed to get back in it, but it's still two points dropped for us." (via Sky Sports)

Saturday saw Gerrard's worst passing accuracy of the season, the worst since I started doing these match infographics at the beginning of last season? This season's previous low was last week at Stoke. The two times he's played in "the Pirlo role." I wonder if that's coincidence.

Saturday also saw Gerrard's low for passes completed when starting since the beginning of last season, and that's including matches where he was subbed off. The only other match that came close was the 2-2 draw at Everton last season, where Liverpool were dominated after going up 2-0 within 20 minutes; Gerrard completed 35 of 39 attempted.

Unsurprisingly, Gerrard's performance did improve in the second half. Because he had help.



Lucas and Allen provide an outlet. Lucas and Allen will knit play in their own half, will play the simple pass to open up space. Lucas and Allen will do the chasing in defense. Henderson, for all his positives, suffers in those areas, almost immediately looking to get forward, leaving Gerrard with few options when he actually received the ball in the first half. It really is no coincidence that Liverpool's best 20 minutes were the 20 minutes that Lucas was on the pitch, even if the Brazilian's rarely been 'at his best' this season. Gerrard's passing was still overly ambitious, and subsequently less accurate, in the second half – look at all those long passes – but one of those ambitious passes won Liverpool the (deserved) equalizing penalty. And that's also a credit to how Villa defended and swarmed the midfield, even when they were less dangerous in attack thanks to Liverpool's halftime changes (as well as Agbonlahor's injury).



Liverpool's inability to win aerial duels was almost as much an issue as the missing midfield. Again, Gerrard was especially poor, winning none of his six, all in dangerous positions. Lucas isn't the best header of the ball, but he's averaged 2.5 aerial duels won per match this season, fourth-best in the squad behind Skrtel, Sakho, and Agger, winning 62% (47 of 76).

Benteke won 13 of 18 aerial duels on Saturday. At Villa Park, Benteke only won five of 12 aerial duels, as Agger won three of five, Toure two of three, Lucas two of two, and Johnson six of 10. On Saturday, Skrtel won four of six, Toure one of two, and Johnson one of seven, in addition to Gerrard's zero of six. Most notable were Johnson's failings: from six of ten in the last meeting to one of seven two days ago, especially important because of how Benteke prefers to drift wide onto a fullback – usually the right-back – on long hoofs forward. It's no surprise that Benteke attempted the most passes in the match, tied with Henderson. Unlike in the last two wins over Villa, Liverpool could not stop him.

Johnson's decline over the last couple of months, in absolutely every facet of the game, has been one of the most worrying trends of late, especially with Enrique and Flanagan's injuries, and Martin Kelly's disappearance from the face of the earth.




Combined, Liverpool's fullbacks attempted just 15 passes in the attacking third, completing nine. At home. Against Aston Villa. In the last three matches they've started – against Hull, at Stoke, against Villa – Johnson and Cissokho are responsible for just two chances created (both by Johnson) and just four shots (three from Cissokho, one from Johnson), all four either off-target or blocked. And yet both were caught upfield on Villa's two goals, one from each flank, stretching an already infirm defense out of position, with both goals coming from Agbonlahor crosses: one low, one lofted. Yes, Johnson's woefully out-of-form. Yes, Cissokho's third-choice, at best. That's still unacceptable, and thanks to injuries, it's become Liverpool's weakest position, despite the aforementioned struggles in midfield.

Remember when it 'just wasn't working' last season against Wigan? Rodgers hooked Suso in the 36th minute, even though Suso had been one of Liverpool's lone bright spots. But the midfield was unbalanced and ineffective, and Liverpool need the midfield to be at least marginally working to be anywhere near their best. Liverpool went on to win 3-0 against Wigan thanks to that substitution. Sure, by that point on Saturday, Liverpool was already 0-1 down, soon to be 0-2, but there was no need to wait until halftime to rectify what was obviously a bad situation, a situation that was obviously bad by the 10th minute.

There were some very, very bad Liverpool performances on the pitch. Gerrard's inability to play in the deep-lying role, the fullbacks' ineptness, time passing Toure by, Mignolet's error for Villa's second goal (the fourth goal he was at fault for in five games, no less). And, yes, injuries than have hamstrung this already shallow squad. But Rodgers' almost arrogant, overly-attacking starting XI and then waiting until halftime to make the obvious substitution still seems most at fault for Liverpool dropping two points.

Liverpool 2-2 Aston Villa

Goals:
Weimann 25'
Benteke 37'
Sturridge 45+2'
Gerrard 53' (pen)

Brendan Rodgers lost Liverpool two points today. And at least it was only two.

Liverpool's defense and midfield have been in shambles, the former ravaged by injuries, the latter unbalanced by Gerrard's return. You conceded three to Stoke – Stoke! – last week, you've kept three clean sheets in the last 18 league matches. Yes, Liverpool have succeeded by scoring goals this season, but maybe don't line up with a balls-to-the-wall attacking formation that further exposes your obvious weaknesses.

And if you're going to go with a balls-to-the-wall attacking formation – which, again, I don't recommend in the first place – you probably shouldn't concede the initiative to the opposition. The two midfielders need to be able to win and control possession (*glares at Gerrard and Henderson and then Gerrard again*), the defenders need to be comfortable on the ball (*glares at Skrtel, Toure, Cissokho, and a still-wildly-out-of-form Johnson*), the attackers need to press the opposition midfielders (*feels bad for poor, isolated Sturridge*). None of those things happened.

Liverpool deployed a 4-2-4 formation but also decided to defend as deeply as possible, inviting Villa onto them. And Villa gladly complied, hoofing deep into the final third from kickoff and pretty much keeping the ball there for the next 25 minutes, winning almost every single aerial duel, exploiting the acres and acres of space down either flank, and bypassing midfield every single damned time. Neither Henderson nor Gerrard – neither a holding midfielder, no matter what Rodgers wants to believe – could get a foot on the ball.

The only surprise was that it took Villa 25 minutes to score, having wasted three good chances before finally tallying. Toure charging out to miss a header, allowing Agbonlahor to nip in ahead of a retreating Skrtel before poking just wide within a minute set the tone. Gerrard dispossessed in the 16th minute ended with Weimann's blast fortunately straight at Mignolet. Clark, eluding Johnson, cannoned a free header off the foot of the post from Villa's first corner of the match in the 24th.

Liverpool could only live dangerously for so long. I guess it was fitting that Villa's goal came from a blitzkrieg counter despite all the pressure created through possession to that point. Suarez lost the ball deep in Villa's half, two quick passes from Delph and Benteke released Agbonlahor, spinning away from and out-pacing Toure before cutting in and centering to an arguably offside Weimann in the six-yard box, with Gerrard failing to fully track the forward's run. A comedy of errors, insane positioning and anarchic marking, but I'm not laughing.

Liverpool didn't take its first shot until the 28th minute, didn't test Guzan until the 32nd. But then it was straight back down to the other end: more errors, more comedy. Cissokho so far out of position he's not even in the camera angle, forcing Toure to come out wide in an attempt to mark both Agbonlahor and El Ahmadi. Agbonlahor, with space to cross before Gerrard's able to close down. Mignolet and Johnson in a complete muddle, the former flapping at the cross, the latter leaving Benteke to try to head away. The Belgian won't score an easier goal, stooping to tap in a header from six yards out. It was his fourth in four games against Liverpool.

From there, you assume it's last season all over again. Two unexpected first-half goals, and the feeling that Villa absolutely have more in them. But at least Liverpool righted the ship, getting the necessary first before the interval: lovely build-up from Suarez and Henderson to dice through seven Villa players strung across their 18-yard box, Henderson's back-heel releasing Sturridge, finished wonderfully with his weaker foot.

Halftime also gave Rodgers a chance to rectify his mistakes, bringing on Lucas for Coutinho, who'd done absolutely nothing of note in the first half. Villa no longer bossed midfield. And Liverpool were level within eight minutes of the restart: another slightly fortunate penalty won when Guzan made marginal contact with Suarez, sent through by Gerrard's picture-perfect long pass, the penalty unsurprisingly converted by Liverpool's captain.

That should have been the platform to win the game. And Liverpool soon had chances to take the lead, but Guzan made three saves: the first routine from Sturridge's tame shot, the second on Suarez's fierce blast straight down his throat, the third the best, somehow parrying Henderson's effort despite seeing it late.

And then Liverpool's substitute had to be substituted, going off with a knee injury, seemingly a similar situation to when he tore his ACL at Chelsea, trying but unable to play on. Allen came on, and through little fault of his own, Liverpool lost momentum, the only chance of note Suarez's long-range free kick whistling wide in the 77th until a furious but futile injury time.

I like Brendan Rodgers. There's absolutely no doubt that Liverpool are a vastly better side now than when he took over, and on the whole, they've improved over his tenure. But today's starting XI was criminally, suicidally stupid. As Stoke did last week, Villa throughly exposed Liverpool's weaknesses. But they didn't need to be helped by the starting XI. Unlike last week, Liverpool didn't have five goals in reserve, as Villa didn't defend as unrelentingly stupidly as Stoke did.

Liverpool need their defenders to get fit, and probably need both another midfielder and full-back before the end of January if they're truly going to push on to fourth and possibly beyond. Especially if Lucas is out for an extended period of time. The 20 minutes he was on the pitch – as well as the first 45 minutes that he wasn't – demonstrate how important he is to the side even if he hasn't been at his best at all this season. And it's also evidence why Henderson "out wide" had been so important out wide when Liverpool had used a similar formation with both Suarez and Sturridge available earlier in the season. Gerrard struggles in a two-man midfield. So does Henderson. Never put them together again. Although, as much blame goes to the defense: Toure on the first goal, Mignolet and Cissokho on the second.

Liverpool have taken four points from the last two matches. They took zero from these two last season. That's no small matter. But had Liverpool started with the lineup that came out after halftime, it almost certainly would have been six.