Visualized: Liverpool 2-2 Sunderland

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)


All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.


The moral of the story remains the same as yesterday. If Liverpool hadn't committed two avoidable, asinine penalties, Liverpool win a difficult game, despite the lack of rotation, fatigue, relative mediocrity, etc. Sometimes, it really is that simple.

Still, there's more than a bit of aberration in this match and result.

The last time Liverpool committed two penalties in a match was the first match of Brendan Rodgers' tenure, at West Brom in August 2012. Pepe Reina saved one, but Liverpool still lost 0-3. The last time Liverpool conceded from two penalties was (again) at West Brom, this time under Dalglish, in April 2011.

It's not something that happens often.

Before yesterday's match, Liverpool put 15 or more shots on-target just once since the beginning of 2013-14: against Watford two months ago, where Liverpool put 17 on-target and scored from six.

The previous high for shots on-target away from home in a Premier League match this season was 10. No keeper has made as many saves in a league match as Mannone did yesterday.

Liverpool surpassed yesterday's 71.4% shooting accuracy just twice since the beginning of 2013-14: last season's 6-0 win at Aston Villa and a 0-1 loss at Hull in April 2015.

Incidentally, Liverpool didn't put 15 shots on-target or have a shooting accuracy above 70% in any match during the 2013-14 Suarez-led attacking tornado. For what's it's worth.

In the three above matches, you've got two six-goals-scored wins and a 0-1 loss.

That Hull game is probably a decent comparison. Away against a soon-to-be-relegated side. Nine of 12 shots on-target, but a lot of low-value chances, with almost half of those shots on-target came from outside the box. That day, Liverpool lost because Liverpool did something dumb – the then-frequent and still-possible inability to deal with the second phase of a corner. At least Liverpool didn't lose yesterday? Not that striving to match results from 2014-15 is any sort of goal.

But putting that many shots on-target – even if too many are soft or speculative – and having such a high shooting accuracy but still failing to win is not something that happens often.

Liverpool were the only side who played both Saturday and Monday and made just one change. Southampton (L) made six; United (W), Boro (D), and Leicester (D) made five; City (W) and Everton (W) made four; Sunderland (D) and West Ham (L) made three; West Brom (W), Burnley (L), and Hull (L) made two.

I can't help but wonder what would have happened had Liverpool made just two more, say Stewart for Can or Wijnaldum and Moreno for Milner (which happened at halftime anyway). But that's obviously moot now.

Sturridge's potent return was a welcome sight. Mignolet made three excellent open play saves and also prevented Defoe from getting a shot off when through on goal. Firmino was again more influential on the left than he had been. Emre Can did at least improve as the deepest midfielder in the second half. Liverpool were reasonably creative on a ground and against opposition where it's often tough to do so under normal circumstances. Liverpool scored two goals from corners in one match for the third time this season. All things considered, it really wasn't that bad, except for those penalties.

Liverpool still sit second, even if the gap to third has lessened. Liverpool still have one of the highest point totals they've taken from the first 20 games in the club's history. Both the fixture schedule and Liverpool's injury concerns will ease over the next few weeks, starting with rests for the majority of first-team players in this weekend's FA Cup match. Hell, Liverpool might even add a player or two in January (I recommend doing this if possible).

As annoying as yesterday was, there's still some aberration about it and it still isn't the end of the world. The title race has gotten harder, the top four race has gotten narrower, but we'd still have grabbed this position with both hands at the start of the season.

Liverpool can be better, Liverpool should be better, and Liverpool will be better. You know, as long as they just stop doing dumb, avoidable things.

Liverpool 2-2 Sunderland

Goals:
Sturridge 19'
Defoe 25' [pen] 84' [pen]
Mané 72'

In retrospect, obvious trap game is obvious. Playing less than 48 hours after your last match is not fun.

To be fair, Sunderland were under the same constraints, albeit at home after an away match last time. And with even fewer possible changes given their unbelievably long injury list. Of course, Sunderland also saved their energy at Burnley after getting absolutely annihilated from the opening whistle.

Maybe some rotation would have helped. We all were sure surprised when Liverpool's XI was announced, the only change an enforced one, Sturridge replacing the injured Jordan Henderson. Yeah, Klopp's not a big fan of rotating his side. Yeah, Liverpool's bench – Karius, Origi, Moreno, Lucas, Stewart, Alexander-Arnold, and Ejaria – didn't offer many options. Still.

Physical fatigue and mental fatigue are two different things. And both exist. Physically, Liverpool were okay, or at least as okay as is possible with matches in quick succession. Mentally, Liverpool were not. "Mentally" is absolutely the reason why Liverpool conceded both goals, both incredibly unnecessary penalties to have given away.

That said, this is going to be an apex "stats lie" game. Total shots, shots on-target, expected goals, possession, etc etc. Mannone made 15 saves. Sunderland created only four chances from open play, three leading to shots from outside the box, the other immediately blocked. Sunderland needed two penalties to get the draw.

It's misleading. Liverpool only scored twice because of Sunderland's defending on corners. Mannone made some good saves but a lot of those shots were tame or from long range or both. Mignolet twice saved excellent Sunderland opportunities, especially when stealing the ball off a through-on-goal Jermain Defoe two minutes after Sunderland equalized. Sunderland could have had a third penalty for a fairly obvious Emre Can handball.

Liverpool weren't good. Liverpool still probably should have won, but it was a lot closer than it seemed, despite Sunderland's luck and Liverpool's errors. And I can't help but blame fatigue, more mental than physical.

Credit where due. Sunderland actually are a much better side, if only relatively speaking, at home. Sunderland didn't look a side missing nine potential starters through injury, most of them certain. Sunderland didn't look a side that played just 48 hours ago. It's no secret that Liverpool struggle when their pressed in their own half in games such as these; see: Burnley, Bournemouth. It's one thing when Manchester City does it, because Liverpool are a lot more defensive and a lot more compact. It's another when Liverpool want and expect to attack attack attack and are wide open more often than a pervert's trench coat.

So Liverpool struggled to get into an early rhythm. There were one or two nice passing moves, Sturridge looked threatening, but Sunderland came at Liverpool. Like Burnley did, like Bournemouth did. And I can't help by beginning my litany of complaints with the one change to Liverpool's holding midfielder and center-back trio.

Emre Can did not look comfortable. That shouldn't have been that much of a surprise given how he's played this season: as a tank rolling downhill, charging around, charging forward, capable of rolling in the wrong direction but usually just get out of his way. You can not do that in the holding role. So Liverpool are exposed more than you'd rightfully expect, Liverpool are misplacing and misplaying passes when transitioning to attack, and Liverpool aren't really getting the ball forward enough.

But then Liverpool strike from a set play, through Sturridge, the type of goal that Liverpool conceded far too often last season and earlier in this. Lovren misplays an attempted volley but Sturridge is far quickest to the second ball as Sunderland fail to react, a lovely cushioned header looping over Mannone. Okay. You've got your goal. Just do smart things and be patient and be good and we'll all be fine.

Ha.

Six minutes later, the score's level, thanks to Can mis-controlling a pass from Klavan, Ndong getting around Wijnaldum from the throw-in, and Klavan's wholly unnecessary and frankly stupid penalty, late to hang a leg out with Lallana right there to cover. Sigh. Mignolet goes the right way, but Defoe's spot kick is too good, because that's what Defoe does.

And then it's the tilt thing that Liverpool are too prone to. "Oh hell, we screwed up, we can't screw up, crap we screwed up again." Almost immediately, Can's misplaced pass, Can not tracking Ndong, Klavan caught flat-footed when not sure whether to follow (an offside) Ndong or Defoe, and Defoe's through on goal. Thankfully, Mignolet reacts surprisingly fast and pokes it away, with defenders back quickly to block Borini's attempt.

And little by little, Liverpool got its act together, but only enough to stop the rot rather than truly threaten for the rest of the half. Some good defensive blocks, because Sunderland and Moyes and denying space, Sturridge again denied from distance, but it wasn't enough.

And then, more of the same in the second half, even as Moreno replaced Milner (I'm not sure whether through injury/fatigue or his yellow card or Klopp wanting a more threatening wide option, but I suspect the latter). Mané should have done better with a header from Clyne's cross and Mannone did well to save Sturridge's effort when the striker was right on top of him, but otherwise tame efforts from Can and Firmino (twice). Meanwhile, Sunderland howled as they were denied a second penalty when Can blocked a cross with his arm.

Thankfully, in the 72nd minute, second verse same as the first. Liverpool get a corner and Sunderland don't defend the second ball. This time, Moreno's delivery was really good and Djilobodji was unfortunate to flick on into a dangerous area, but Mané was first to react. Back in front. Time to shut up shop, etc.

Ha.

It was odd that Origi finally came on right after the goal, replacing Wijnaldum in what had to be a pre-planned substitution. Now with a lead, Liverpool were potentially more exposed when playing 4-4-2 with a midfield of Can and Lallana. But Sunderland didn't threaten, couldn't really threaten. It was gonna work, guys!

Then Lucas came on.

Okay, that's not really fair. But there's a reason why "late Lucas foul in a dangerous position" is a running joke. Sure enough, less than two minutes after coming on, there's Lucas and there's Defoe on the ground, and there's a dead ball situation dead center less than 25 yards from goal. It shouldn't have mattered, nor should it have mattered that Defoe actually dived, because Larsson sent his effort straight at the wall, most likely traveling wide if it avoid contact. But for some reason, Mané stuck his arm straight out to block, and Anthony Taylor literally had no choice to point to the spot. And then second verse same as the first.

Both of Sunderland's penalties are the textbook definition of avoidable. With pictures and everything. Rested players are far less likely to make those mistakes. And, with Sturridge having gone off for Lucas and less firepower up front when Liverpool actually need it, we finish with ten minutes of Liverpool trying but Liverpool tired, and Sunderland wasting time and denying space, and tame Klavan and Firmino headers straight at Mannone.

This should not have happened.

Sure, there's more than a good bit of one-off fluke in that result, due to scheduling, due to the errors, due to Liverpool being otherwise comprehensively better in attack. But it's not as if we've never been here before.

The lesson of this story is a lesson we'd hoped Liverpool would have learned by now. Just don't do dumb things. Just don't. You can and you probably will be punished for it. I suspect the potential for dumb would have been lessened with more changes to the XI, but these are professionals. It is not an excuse.

Sort yourselves out.

Liverpool at Sunderland 01.02.17

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (h) 11.26.16
2-2 (h) 02.06.16
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 01.10.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 City (h); 4-1 Stoke (h); 1-0 Everton (a)
Sunderland: 1-4 Burnley (a); 1-3 United (a); 1-0 Watford (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 8; Lallana 7; Coutinho, Firmino, Milner, Origi 5; Can 3; Lovren, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Matip, Sturridge 1
Sunderland: Defoe 9; Anichebe, van Aanholt 3; Borini 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Alexander-Arnold Lovren Klavan Milner
Wijnaldum Stewart Can
Ejaria
Origi Sturridge

Don't you just love the Premier League?

Less than 48 hours after a knockdown, drag-out, I'm-tired-just-watching-it 1-0 win over Manchester City, Liverpool travel to Sunderland. It is good to see the league values the health of its players over television considerations. Happy New Year, suckers.

But Sunderland, aside from the lack of travel, are under same constraints.

You look at Liverpool's bench against Manchester City and wonder where the changes are coming. Both Origi and Sturridge seem a good place to start, as hinted by Klopp in today's press conference.

Which suggests a 4-4-2 diamond, as we saw the only other time these strikers have started together this season, against Tottenham in the League Cup two months ago. Even without the need to rotate, starting those two together might not be the worst idea given how thoroughly an insanely deep Sunderland stifled Liverpool at Anfield until Origi's 75th-minute wonder goal.

However, this is also the last match for Mané before the African Cup of Nations. I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the right, with Sturridge central and Origi ostensibly on the left. Although I guess he could play in the hole behind two strikers, as he did a few times for Southampton. Either way, I'm tempted to suggest Liverpool use him while they've got him.

Otherwise, it depends on who's fit enough after yesterday's exertions. Henderson won't play. Lallana probably won't either. You'd expect at least Clyne or Milner, or both, to be given a rest. I suspect it won't be a true completely changed XI, as we've seen in the League Cup at times, because this is the league and Liverpool want every point possible and Klopp knows more about these players' fitness than we do, but there have to be some alterations.

Let's guess Stewart, Alexander-Arnold, and Ejaria, although Lucas – in midfield or defense – and Moreno are also options. If Mané does play, I assume it'll be Ejaria left out unless Wijnaldum or Can is too fatigued.

Maybe Liverpool surprise us and play a stronger XI, with only Henderson left out after aggravating his heel injury. Klopp did surprise us with fairly strong League Cup XIs for most of last season and earlier in this. We've seen less rotation than expected in previous festive season games. He knows the fitness and the limitations of his squad far better than we do. But I'd be very, very surprised.

Meanwhile, Sunderland's constraints are probably even more severe than Liverpool's considering form and absentees.

After a very marginal renaissance, Sunderland have fallen back into the relegation zone after losing their last two matches by a combined 7-2 margin: 3-1 at United, 4-1 at Burnley. Admittedly, that's a bit misleading. Sunderland remain better at home lately: 1-0 Watford, 0-1 Chelsea, 2-1 Leicester, compared to three consecutive massacres on the road. Since the beginning of October, they've lost just two of six home games, against Arsenal and Chelsea, drawing West Brom and beating Hull, Leicester, and Watford. Arsenal's 4-1 win on October 29 was the only time the away side scored more than one goal.

Sunderland don't and won't attack any more because they're at home. And even with injuries, Sunderland can still defend. Sunderland will defend. That might be all they do, but chances are they'll do it competently.

Given Sunderland's absolutely horrific injury list – Anichebe, Pickford, Watmore, Cattermole, Kirchoff, Gooch, and McNair are definitely out, Koné and Denayer are very doubtful, and Billy Jones is suspended – as well as the need to rotate at least a little bit with a match 48 hours after the last, guessing their line-up is a bit of a challenge. That's five absent from Sunderland's starting XI when these sides met a little more than a month ago. So, who's available?

My best guess is Mannone; Love, O'Shea, Djilobodji, van Aanholt; Larsson, Ndong, Pienaar; Januzaj, Defoe, Borini. Khazri and Rodwell are other options in the "front" six; maybe Manquillo gets the nod over Love as stand-in right back; Larsson can play in central midfield or higher on the right. Otherwise, *shrug emoji*.

Jermain Defoe's the obvious danger, having scored more than half of Sunderland's league goals, necessarily capable of doing it all on his own. Van Aanholt's almost literally the only other goal-threat with Anichebe out, although Fabio Borini's obviously going to get a mention because of my constant fear of ex-Liverpool players.

The modus operandi for 2017 remains the same as 2016. Next game up, next man up. This will be a different test as Liverpool faced on Saturday, but Saturday doesn't matter anymore. The last match doesn't matter, precedent doesn't matter, necessary rotation and players unavailable shouldn't matter. Liverpool need to keep doing Liverpool, by any means necessary, whether it's blowing the doors off, grinding until you get a 75th minute wonder-goal, or building a brick wall after an early strike.

At this point, everything is about what's directly in front of you. Just win this, then worry about what comes next.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-0 Sunderland

Previous Match Infographics: Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)


All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.


First and foremost, despite the struggles and frustrations, Liverpool won. Liverpool eventually scored and Liverpool kept their third league clean sheet (the first time they've done it in consecutive matches since December 2015) and Liverpool remain unbeaten over the last 11 league matches with eight wins and three draws.

Still, I can't also help but focus on the fact that this was a very disappointing performance from Liverpool's front three. That's going to happen, no matter how potent they've looked so far this season, and especially when the side's forced to shuffle due to Coutinho's injury a third of the way through the match.

27 Liverpool shots, but just eight from Firmino, Mané, Origi, and Coutinho. Just four shots on-target from the four, although one was Liverpool's notable and necessary game-winner. 19 chances created in total, but just four from Firmino, Mané, Origi, and Coutinho, and not a single clear-cut chance until Milner's injury time penalty won by Mané's pace.

Emre Can leading the team in shots taken, and Can and Henderson creating vastly more chances than the rest of the side is not ideal. Henderson and Can created 10 of Liverpool's 19 chances, more than half between just the two of them, and more than twice as many as Firmino, Mané, Origi, and Coutinho combined. Liverpool's four defenders took the same amount of shots as Firmino, Mané, Origi, and Coutinho, and created one more chance.



Only the 5-1 victory over Hull saw Liverpool attempt more passes into the penalty area in a match this season. Liverpool completed 55% that day – just below Liverpool's 56% average going into Saturday's match – but only 43% on Saturday. Only the match against Manchester United, against Mourinho's better parked and more talented double-decker bus, saw Liverpool complete a lower percentage of its passes into the box. Not one pass came from wide areas (and Liverpool's crossing wasn't good either), while Firmino (1/7), Henderson (3/10), and Can (6/14) were all notably profligate in this regard.

Still, Liverpool kept trying, rather than simply resorting to even more speculative shots from distance, ramping up the shot total in the second half, finally forcing Sunderland to start blocking shots – its first not until the 57th minute – rather than watching Liverpool miss its more tentative and tenuous efforts.

All that lead to an Expected Goals chart which looks like this:

xG map for Liverpool - Sunderland. An effective bend-but-don't-break defense by Sunderland, but done in by a great shot. pic.twitter.com/cHEMc7tYFv

— Caley Graphics (@Caley_graphics) November 26, 2016

Low value shots abound, against a defense designed to not give a single inch, needing a supremely unlikely strike to secure the victory.

That Expected Goals chart looks a bit familiar.

xG map for #Burnley-#LFC.

EVERYBODY FREAK OUT pic.twitter.com/fEQuhhbFfv

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) August 20, 2016

The Burnley loss from three months ago remains the closest comparison to Saturday's match. A similar discrepancy in passes, possession, and shot totals between the sides. Disappointing shot accuracy and a failure to create clear-cut chances, with Liverpool also missing a crucial attacker.

This time, Liverpool won. Because of Origi's solitary magic, because of Liverpool's patience and perseverance in pushing for the goal, because of Karius' save in the 20th minute and Karius' smother in the 68th, because Lovren, Matip, and Henderson refused to allow counter-attacks, because Liverpool didn't do anything dumb at the back, because Liverpool didn't give Sunderland the chances they gave Burnley.

Liverpool have allowed just nine shots in the last two matches combined, with just one shot on-target. That's after allowing 14 shots on-target (from 18 in total) in the two matches before, against Crystal Palace and Watford. It's not as if Sunderland or Southampton tried to attack often, but Liverpool also didn't let them, and Liverpool are impressively top of all five big European league in opposition shots allowed.

Because, three months later, while they're not perfect and they've a long way to go before being perfect, Liverpool are a lot better than they were in late August.

And that's really all that matters.

Despite the disappointing facets and performances, Liverpool won. Liverpool won a fixture they drew last season, now +11 points on last season's comparable fixtures, Liverpool won the type of match that they lost just three months earlier. Liverpool pushed and prodded and kept to its plan, even if that plan was partly thrown out of the window due to Coutinho's injury, Klopp cajoled and cheered on the touchline, the crowd got into it, and Liverpool made the breakthrough.

Heads down, get to work, and Liverpool did what Liverpool needed to do.

By hook and by crook, Liverpool took all three points to keep pace with Chelsea and Manchester City, despite all the difficulties, in a match they could have easily drawn or lost, and probably would have done so just a few months before. There's still clearly room for improvement, and improvement will assuredly be needed, especially if Coutinho's out for multiple months.

But rather than a lament or regret, it's yet another notch on the post, and another needed step forward.

Liverpool 2-0 Sunderland

Goals:
Origi 75'
Milner 90+1' [pen]

This team does not ever stop. And there's one man responsible for that.

Let's go back a little bit. We're just past the hour mark. It's 0-0. Again.

Liverpool are dismal in front of goal for the second-straight match, dominating tenor, tempo, and possession but held scoreless, flailing against a double-parked double-decker bus. It's even worse than at Southampton, a better side and away from Anfield, with Liverpool not only erratic with their shooting but misplaying multiple passes when in the final third. And Liverpool are without their best player, Coutinho stretchered off after half an hour with what looked to be a metatarsal injury or ankle fracture or something really, really bad.

And Liverpool's just misplayed another final third pass, well overhit by Henderson – who absolutely was not the only guilty party – when trying to find some way through nine defenders. You can hear the frustration around Anfield. You can hear audible groans. You can hear the inescapable increasing doubt, the belief that 'damn, it really is gonna be another 0-0.'

Jürgen Klopp isn't having any of it.

What a man https://t.co/dHQOZXEUgz

— LFCMostar (@LFCMostar) November 26, 2016

And Anfield becomes a cauldron of noise until Liverpool finally, somehow, superlatively make the breakthrough. What could have been – and, in previous seasons, what would have been – ever-building frustration and the game tepidly ebbing away becomes a deserved and needed 2-0 win to return Liverpool to the top of the table, at least for the time-being.

Liverpool still required a moment of magic, when Divock Origi – who came on in place of Coutinho – blasted past Pickford from no angle, an unconscionable finish from wide left after Liverpool again pressed and scrambled and pushed but were continually denied, blocked off, and forced to start again.

Sunderland did Sunderland, Moyes did Moyes. 27 Liverpool shots, and not one clear-cut chance until Milner's penalty in injury time to seal the game, with Mané sprung on the counter-attack by Origi and taken down by Ndong. Denayer had man-marked Coutinho wherever he went while the Brazilian was on the pitch, and afterwards, sat in the middle of three midfielders who sat in front of four deep defenders. Anichebe, ostensibly a burly striker you hit long balls towards, mainly played a second left-back. Sunderland set up to bend but not break, and Sunderland could well have achieved that if not for Origi's witchcraft.

To be fair, Liverpool do have history scoring from that angle against Sunderland in front of the Kop.

As if we needed more evidence that this is a different Liverpool team than in seasons past, look no further than Liverpool's manager today. That's the passion Liverpool, and Anfield, have too often lacked. He's creating an actual, honest-to-goodness team and this team is a machine and this machine does not will not can not break down often. This machine needs every cog to function, and that includes the crowd. This machine will need to perform at similar, if not better, levels as more and more sides decide that this is the only way they might be able to stop Liverpool.

The headlines and the credit will mainly go to Klopp and Origi, but spare a thought for Loris Karius. Today also could have gone as bad days have gone in the past if not for two crucial saves, on Pienaar in the 17th and Watmore in the 68th, as Liverpool's defensive organization went to all sorts of hell but Karius made the necessary stop, quick off his line in both situations. It goes without saying that going down 0-1, whether in the first or second half, before Liverpool made it 1-0 could have made today very Burnley.

That Liverpool again struggled in the final third is assuredly not a good thing. Nor is Coutinho's injury, which at least appears to be less debilitating than it initially appeared. Liverpool need to put more of its shots on-target, Liverpool needs to be smarter and simply better in the final third.

But Liverpool again demonstrated why they remain apparent top-four and title contenders. As in past matches, they controlled possession and limited opposition chances, but today they truly did it through little more than sheer perseverance and self-belief.

Liverpool v Sunderland 11.26.16

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-2 (h) 02.06.16
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 01.10.15
0-0 (h) 12.06.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Southampton (a); 6-1 Watford (h); 4-2 Palace (a)
Sunderland: 3-0 Hull (h); 2-1 Bournemouth (a); 1-4 Arsenal (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 6; Coutinho, Firmino 5; Milner 4; Lallana 3; Can, Lovren 2; Henderson, Matip, WIjnaldum 1
Sunderland: Defoe 7; Anichebe 3; van Aanholt 2

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Wijnaldum Henderson Can
Mané Firmino Coutinho

Each week it feels as if it's getting easier to predict Liverpool's XI, but each week, Liverpool deploy a different XI, having gone 40 league games without starting the same lineup in consecutive matches. The last time it happened was in Klopp's first and second matches.

Tomorrow should see that streak broken. Adam Lallana's still out and as far as we know, there aren't any new injuries.

However, there is one potential alteration: Coutinho dropping into midfield, with Sturridge (or, less likely, Origi) starting in place of Wijnaldum or Can. Given Liverpool's expected dominance of possession, neither Can nor Wijnaldum really impressing against Southampton, and Sturridge seemingly more than due for multiple goals, it's worth considering.

But I don't really expect it to happen. Klopp likes the system he's settled upon. Liverpool have been good in the system he's settled upon. Liverpool will probably keep doing Liverpool.

Meanwhile, Sunderland. It's a bit early for their it-happens-every-season miraculous escape from relegation, but they've started on that path. Winless in their first ten games – eight losses and two draws – they've earned consecutive victories, albeit over Bournemouth and Hull. And they've done it despite having a player sent off in each of those matches. They're still mired among the dross in the relegation zone, but they're no longer propping up the table, and are just three points from safety.

Bringing Victor Anichebe into the starting XI has been the catalyst. All three of his goals came in those two wins, three of the five goals that Sunderland scored in those two wins. Ostensibly playing on the left but often the second striker along with Defoe, he's added a much needed goal threat. Defoe had responsible for pretty much every other goal Sunderland had scored this season (yes, van Aanholt has two, but that's it).

Injuries have played a large part in Sunderland's woes, and they'll be missing more than a few likely starters tomorrow. Djilobodji's suspended after being sent off against Hull. McNair, Borini, Cattermole are assuredly out, while Kirchhoff, Larsson, Rodwell, and Denayer are doubtful.

The starting XI will look something like Pickford; Jones, Kone, O'Shea, van Aanholt; Ndong, Kirchhoff; Watmore, Januzaj, Anichebe; Defoe. One of the doubtful midfielders – Kirchhoff, Rodwell, Denayer – probably has to start, although Pienaar (also recently back from injury) could be an option. Khazri and Gooch are options on the flanks, but Anichebe's certain to start and Watmore's work-rate will probably see him chosen on the other side.

These are the matches where Liverpool should roll. See: 4-1 Leicester, 5-1 Hull, 6-1 Watford. Even 2-1 West Brom, another home match, and one where Liverpool should have won by far more than they did. Other than 0-0 against Manchester United, flailing against Mourinho's parked bus after an international break, Liverpool have been really, really, really, really good at Anfield. Liverpool have utterly steam-rolled the lesser lights of the league. Liverpool have done exactly what Liverpool have needed to do in these fixtures, fixtures where Liverpool have failed before.

But Liverpool also haven't had the best time in this fixture lately, with draws in each of the last two meetings at Anfield: 0-0 in 2014-15 and 2-2 last season, with Liverpool letting a two-goal lead slip in the final 10 minutes. Sure, it's a different Liverpool and a different Sunderland, but the law of averages and my undying pessimism suggests that Liverpool are due for a fall at Anfield. Anichebe's on a scoring streak, Defoe is always a threat on the counter, and even if we've been pleasantly surprised so far this season, Liverpool can always Liverpool. The bad Liverpool, not the good Liverpool.

It's up to Liverpool to ensure that doesn't happen. This *should* be in the style of Liverpool's other big home wins; Sunderland were bottom of the goals scored table until last weekend, which was also the first league match where they kept a clean sheet. They've conceded three to Everton and Palace, and four to Arsenal, and those matches were all at the Stadium of Light. But Sunderland have been marginally better, at least defensively, away from home. They've the same record – 1W-1D-4L – but have conceded five fewer goals on their travels. That's Moyes. Playing for the 0-0.

Liverpool can't just turn up expecting par for the course. This is the start of an "easy" stretch, facing Sunderland (18th), Bournemouth (10th), West Ham (17th), and Boro (15th), and Liverpool need to make it count, especially since their top-four rivals all have at least one difficult fixture, if not more.

Thankfully, Liverpool 'just turning up' has become much, much less of a concern since Jürgen Klopp became manager.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-2 Sunderland

Previous Match Infographics: Leicester (a) Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)


As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Ten bad minutes can erase the 20 good ones which came before. As well as the 60 indifferent minutes that came before that.

Another late goal conceded? Yep. Two, in fact – the tenth and eleventh goals that Liverpool have conceded after the 75th minute this season in all competitions (ten in the league, one in the Europa League). Liverpool have won just one of the matches where they've conceded in the last 15 matches: the 5-4 victory at Norwich. In total, Liverpool's record when conceding in the last 15 minutes is 1W-3D-6L.

Another set play goal conceded? Yep. The 14th set play goal that Liverpool have conceded this season, from 45 goals conceded in total. That's nearly a third of Liverpool's goals conceded. To be fair, this was the first direct free kick that Liverpool have conceded from this season, but dead ball situations are dead ball situations, and Liverpool remain bad at them. Those 14 goals have come in 12 matches (two set play goals for both West Brom and Norwich). In total, Liverpool's record in those 12 matches is 2W-6D-4L.

Another goal conceded due to a goalkeeper error? Yep. It's the sixth time that's happened; those goals were 2-1 Sunderland, 1-2 Exeter, 0-1 Watford, 1-1 West Brom, 0-1 Bordeaux, and 1-1 Norwich. Which is probably being generous (at the least, Crystal Palace's winner should count as one, and probably some others I've repressed), but those are the Opta-defined goalkeeper errors. Four from Mignolet, two from Bogdan. Six times it's happened, and Liverpool have won just one of those six matches. Liverpool's record in those six matches is 1W-4D-1L.

Liverpool let a lead slip for the eighth time this season, failing to win despite taking the lead: 1-0 against Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, Sion, Everton, Southampton, West Brom, and Arsenal turns into a draw, six of the eight finished 1-1, with a 2-2 and a 3-3 draw as well. Liverpool also went 1-0 up on Norwich, which turned into 1-3, which turned into 5-4.

To be fair, five of those nine matches happened under the previous manager. But this is the first time this season that Liverpool let a two-goal lead slip. Of course, Liverpool have also rarely had a two-goal lead this season: 11 minutes against Villa, eight minutes at Chelsea, 67 minutes at City, 45 minutes at Southampton in the league cup, 16 against Exeter in the FA Cup, and 12 minutes on Saturday. And that's it. 159 minutes, out of 3570 minutes of football in total this season.

When you so rarely out-score the opposition, and every single match seems to be paper-thin, knife-edge narrow, you can't keep doing stupid things in defense.

I've gotten a lot of mileage out of the "Liverpool have conceded from the first shot on-target in 21 of the 26 games where Liverpool have conceded this season" stat. Sure, there's more than a bit of misfortunate in there, but it's also a condemnation of the entire defense, not just Mignolet, and it's still an unfathomable record. Saturday was a helpful example of how pretty much everyone's at fault: the first goal completely on Mignolet's shoulders, the second a comprehensive breakdown where Liverpool gave the ball away from a throw-in, failed to clear, allowed Sunderland to play across the width of the final third, allowed van Aanholt an easy entry pass to Khazri in the box, before Khazri turned Toure and Defoe turned Sakho.

It'd make up for it if Liverpool were doing even close to similar at the other end of the pitch. Unsurprisingly, they aren't. Liverpool have scored in 28 matches this season. They've scored from the first shot on-target in just nine: 5-4 Norwich, 2-2 Exeter, 6-1 Southampton, 2-1 Bordeaux, 4-1 Manchester City, 1-0 Kazan, 1-1 Sion, 3-2 Villa, 1-0 Bournemouth. Seven wins, two draw. Four in the league (all wins), three in the Europa League (two wins, one draw), once in the League Cup (win), once in the FA Cup (draw). That's, uh, somewhat worse than the opposition's record.

Liverpool are averaging 5.31 shots on-target per match in all competitions. Which is okay! They're fourth-best in the league for total shots on-target. On average, in matches where Liverpool have scored, they're scoring with their 2nd or 3rd shot on-target (2.43, if we're going by the exact average). And in total, Liverpool are averaging 3.98 shots on-target per goal. That's less good. Liverpool simply aren't converting enough, not that this is news to anyone. The best attacking performances have few and far between, and otherwise, Liverpool are infinitely frustrating at worst and mediocre more often than not.

Meanwhile, Liverpool's opponents are averaging 2.6 shots on-target per goal. Liverpool's save percentage in all competitions is 61.54%. The opposition's save percentage in all competitions is 74.88%. In the league, it's 58.8% for Liverpool and 73.7% for Liverpool's opponents. And the league average is 69.4%. Conceding twice from just two shots on-target yesterday, Liverpool have now passed Bournemouth for the worst save percentage in the league. Only Tottenham have faced fewer shots on-target than Liverpool this season.

If it's not one end of the pitch, it's the other. And sometimes, it's both. Again.

Are there any bright spots? Well, football folks who know a lot more about this nonsense than I do think there's a fair bit of flukiness involved in Liverpool's woes. That's something.

Otherwise, at least Roberto Firmino's becoming one hell of a player. A goal and an assist on Saturday, involved in seven of Liverpool's last ten league goals (five goals, two assists), involved in pretty much everything good that Liverpool did against Sunderland. He's scored with his left foot, his right foot, and his head; he's scored from crosses, from distance, from pressing opposition defenders into mistakes; he's assisted with layoffs, cutbacks, and crosses.

By my count, Firmino has played as a striker in nine league matches this season: eight as the lone striker, once in a partnership with Origi/Benteke (1-0 at Leicester). In those matches:



He still can go missing in games (0-2 Leicester, 0-3 Watford), his shot accuracy can still improve (five of those nine matches were without a single shot on-target). But he's finally fully adapting to a new team, new league, and new position, and he's done it without a lot of help from his teammates.

It bodes well for the future. Unfortunately, not enough else does.

Liverpool 2-2 Sunderland

Goals:
Firmino 59'
Lallana 70'
Johnson 82'
Defoe 89'

The easy joke is that the Liverpool players joined a large portion of the stadium in walking out after 77 minutes. They aren't – or, at least shouldn't be – related events. Sure, it probably didn't help matters, but if you buy a ticket, you've the right to do whatever you want with it. And you don't get to criticize those in the stadium from the comfort of your couch or the local pub.

The players, however, are paid to play for 90 minutes. And they didn't. That's it. That's the alpha, that's the omega. That's Liverpool.

2-0 in the 70th minute, against a team that hadn't scored against Liverpool since March 2014, should have led to a routine win if the stadium completely emptied. If Liverpool's entire back line spontaneously combusted. Under any circumstances. It took 59 minutes, because Liverpool, but Liverpool finally had control of the situation. Liverpool should have maintained control of the situation. Liverpool didn't.

For 59 minutes, par for the course. Liverpool utterly dominate possession – 81.6% in the first half, the highest percentage I've ever seen – but Liverpool struggle to create chances, struggle to take shots, take said shots in poor positions, and put the majority of said shots off-target. But then, two excellent goals: a wonderful cross from Milner finding Firmino open at the back post (aided by van Aanholt's "marking"), then Firmino pressing Jones into a mistake before running on goal and centering for Lallana's tap-in. The assist made both of those goals, during a three-match spell where Liverpool had failed to create those types of chances. There had been 359 minutes of goalless football from Liverpool between Lallana's winner against Norwich and Firmino's opener, but then, all of a sudden, two in ten minutes.

Hurrah! 2-0 up against second-from-bottom Sunderland, who'd barely attempted to play football, who'd taken just four shots in 80 minutes: all off-target, three of four from outside the box. Fine. Cruise control. We'll spend the final 15 minutes talking about the fans' protest – which, again, isn't something I'd be comfortable doing but is completely understandable and more than within their rights – and leave with three much-needed points.

But, no, because Liverpool. A free kick from nothing, an unnecessary foul by Moreno. A wall that failed to block Johnson's free kick, which somehow snuck under Mignolet's hand. Another set play goal conceded. Another concession from the opposition's first shot on-target, for the 21st time in the 26 matches where Liverpool have conceded. 21 of 26. There aren't even words.

Fine. Shit happens. Very much against the run of play, a perfectly-placed shot, a bit of a fluke both with and without context. Just collect yourselves and see the game out. Just do your damned jobs. Ha. Ha ha ha ha. Because it only got worse. Because, somehow, every single Liverpool player lost their minds. Because Liverpool.

Back to all those Rodgers' performances where Liverpool let a lead slip, all those 1-0 wins which somehow turned into 1-1 draws, a failing we'd thought we'd fixed after those first few Klopp draws. Liverpool couldn't collect, Liverpool couldn't clear. Liverpool players stand off Sunderland's, Sunderland's players allowed time and space to pass in front of Liverpool's box, allowed the opportunity to find a way through for the second. Lucas brought on to add an extra defensive presence does nothing. And with a minute left in normal time, van Aanholt in space passes to Khazri, back to goal, allowed to turn. Khazri passes to Defoe in the box, back to goal, allowed to turn. And Defoe summarily and simply turns around Sakho, hammering past a flat-footed Mignolet.

From 2-0 to 2-2 in seven minutes, against the 19th-placed side. Against a side that hadn't scored any sort of goal against Liverpool in almost two years. At Anfield. It'd be unbelievable if it wasn't so very Liverpool. Liverpool have now conceded 10 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches this season – three in Rodgers' 11 matches, seven in Klopp's 28; six at Anfield, four away from home. It's not a protest problem, a fans' problem. It's not a Rodgers problem, it's not a Klopp problem. It's not an Anfield problem. It's a Liverpool problem.

So here we are again. Stuck with an underperforming, disappointing, simply bad football team. There are either breakdowns in attack or breakdowns at the back, and often both. Somehow decent, tepid, and horrific, all within 90 minutes. It seems that Liverpool find a way to throw away points in new, inventive, and soul-killing fashion every single week.

Once again, it's sound and fury signifying nothing. And not even that much sound or fury. A nothing result. A nothing performance. Liverpool have become irrelevant. And Liverpool are very close to becoming just another mid-table side.

Liverpool v Sunderland 02.06.16

10am ET, live in the US on USA Network

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 01.10.15
0-0 (h) 12.06.14
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.26.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Leicester (a); 0-0 West Ham (h); 0-1 Stoke aet (h)
Sunderland: 0-1 City (h); 1-1 Bournemouth (h); 1-4 Tottenham (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 6; Coutinho, Firmino 5; Milner 3; Henderson, Ings, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Lallana, Origi, Skrtel 1
Sunderland: Defoe 9; Fletcher 4; van Aanholt 3; Borini, Lens, Watmore 2; Johnson, Jones, M’Vila 1

Referee: Robert Madley

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can Milner
Firmino Lallana
Benteke

To Benteke or not to Benteke? I guess that’s the question.

Liverpool have been held scoreless in the five hours since the five-goal outburst at Norwich. One of those matches – the FA Cup tie against West Ham – saw an almost entirely different XI, but those against both Stoke and Leicester were basically the same as at Norwich: Henderson, Lucas, Can in midfield; Firmino, Milner, and either Lallana or Ibe up front. And it’s been dire. Absolutely dire.

There’s really only one way Liverpool can change things, and that’s starting Liverpool’s only (and rightfully maligned) out-and-out striker. Otherwise, it’s half measures: Ibe or Ojo add pace, but little experience or guile in front of goal; Allen’s fitter than Henderson, Lucas, and maybe even Can, but that’s not a massive help up front; Brad Smith's seemingly in better form than Moreno, but it has been against weaker opposition; Teixiera might add more creativity, but who’s he creating for?

Christian Benteke wasn’t good against West Ham with the kids. Or Exeter, for that matter. He hasn’t been good as a substitute in the aforementioned painful scoreless draws or losses. But is he really worse than the "we tried hard, but that’s about it" that we’ve seen over the last few matches? Maybe. At this point, I’m almost happier with the devil we don’t know rather than the one we know all too well.

Coutinho, Origi, and Sturridge have all returned to training, but will return for the replay against West Ham at the soonest. They truly can make a difference. Until then, it remains a holding pattern.

This team needs goals. That’s the alpha, that’s the omega. Benteke’s certainly no guarantee of goals, but he has to be more likely, even if only slightly, than what we’ve seen lately.

Of course, Benteke started the last time these two sides met. And Benteke scored the winner. But, once again, it was an insipid attacking performance, a narrow 1-0 win. It certainly wasn’t a vote of confidence; after that, Benteke started the next league match, an abominable loss at West Ham, and has only started FA Cup matches since.

And that narrow, just-barely-good-enough performance came against a Sunderland side who’ve conceded the most goals in the division, one more than second-worst Norwich. Which might well be an argument for the same XI which faced Norwich. Sunderland have been especially porous away from home, conceding 34 of their 47 in total, six more than the second-worst side. They’ve allowed three goals away from home three times, four goals three times, and six goals once. They’ve kept just one away clean sheet: at Palace in November.

Of course, always assume Liverpool can buck that sort of trend.

Sunderland are currently 19th, four points and goal difference from safety. Given their position, it’s little surprise that they were one of the busiest in the January transfer window, adding Dame N’Doye and Wahbi Khazri in attack, and Lamine Kone and Jan Kirchhoff in defense. Both Kone and Kirchhoff – the latter as a defensive midfielder – started on Tuesday, both Khazri and N’Doye came off the bench.

Jeremiah Lens, Yann M’Vila, and Younes Kaboul are questionable; Seb Larsson’s still out injured.

Assuming it’ll be a similar line-up as against Manchester City – where Sunderland played well but lost 0-1 to an early Agüero goal, with City happy to just sit back and stifle after taking the lead – the XI should be Mannone; Jones, Kone, O’Shea, van Aanholt; Kirchhoff; Khazri, M’Vila, Cattermole, Borini; Defoe. We’ll assume Lens, who needed to be replaced at halftime on Tuesday, and Kaboul, out for the last six weeks, aren’t available, but M’Vila will be. If he’s not, Sunderland could play Rodwell, Adam Johnson, or Ola Toivonen in midfield, or switch formations: to either five at the back or 4-4-2.

With Liverpool held scoreless against both Stoke and West Ham, Anfield hasn’t seen a goal since the FA Cup replay against Exeter on January 20th, and hasn’t seen a league goal since Joe Allen’s 90th-minute equalizer against Arsenal on January 13th.

No offense to Sunderland (okay, only slight offense, and all towards Sam Allardyce), but tomorrow is all about what Liverpool do. It’s all about goals. Liverpool simply have to score more of them. Any of them.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Sunderland

Previous Match Infographics: Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

You have seen this movie before, you have heard this song before.

Liverpool control possession and tempo, Liverpool take a reasonable amount of shots, but Liverpool create only a couple of good chances. Liverpool mostly struggle when throwing themselves against a deep-lying, physical side happy to defend and play for little more than keeping Liverpool out and maybe counter-attacking once in a great while.

But Benteke scores a second half goal, despite complaints about other parts of his performance, and Liverpool eke out a victory. It was more Leicester – a much better side, but a match played at Anfield – than Newcastle or Watford.

So be it. It's the festive season, and Liverpool's first-team injury list is almost in double digits. A win is a win is a win, even if it also featured similarities to past failures.

Sunderland tried to do to Liverpool what Newcastle did to Liverpool on Liverpool's last trip to the north east: unsettling the away side with a deep back line; a physical, narrow midfield; and a high work-rate in Liverpool's half. Six of Sunderland's 13 successful tackles came in their attacking half, pressing Liverpool as Liverpool usually want to press the opposition.

But Liverpool didn't make the mistakes they did against Newcastle, and Liverpool did better in taking the game to Sunderland, in attacking and creating in Sunderland's final third. And that makes all the difference between three points and no points.

Sunderland are Sunderland, but 17 shots are still the most that Liverpool have taken in an away league match this season, narrowly beating the 16 at Chelsea and 15 at Arsenal, both teams who gave Liverpool much more space to play in. As a reminder, Liverpool took just 10 at Newcastle and just 12 at Watford in the previous two away losses.

This was just the second time in the last six league matches where Liverpool created at least two clear-cut chances: Benteke scoring the first, hilariously (in retrospect, if not at the time) denied on the very late second. The other was against West Brom at Anfield: Henderson's opening goal, but also Lallana denied when through in the 80th minute, a chance that Liverpool very much needed to take.

Against Leicester? One, Benteke's very late (and very offside) chance saved. At Watford? None. At Newcastle? One, Benteke's miss from a corner in the 21st minute. Against Swansea? One, Milner's penalty.

Admittedly, Liverpool should be able to create more than two against Sunderland. But two is still better than we've seen lately, and only the Manchester City match had at least two clear-cut Liverpool chances away from home since Klopp became manager (five, scoring two of them, as well as two more).

Once again, it's a performance nearly defined by Liverpool's terrible shooting accuracy. Liverpool's six of 17 shots on-target, 35.3%, is actually better than the season-long average, and vastly better than Liverpool's previous five matches. Firmino (twice) and Benteke forced fine saves from Mannone, while Clyne and Coutinho also hit the target from distance. But Liverpool still put more of its shots off-target (seven), with four blocked.

Unsurprisingly, Philippe Coutinho remains Liverpool's worst offender. Six shots, again leading Liverpool: one on-target, four off-target, one blocked. Which follows up his four off-target, one blocked performance against Leicester.

As we saw in the matches Coutinho missed through injury – Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h) – Liverpool's total shots drop precipitously without Coutinho in the line-up, and bad shots are usually better than no shots. Coutinho remains Liverpool's second-top scorer, only passed by Benteke yesterday. But, for the most part, they have been bad shots: bad locations and bad accuracy. 59.2% of Coutinho's league shots have come from outside the box (42 of 71), leading to two of his five goals (at Stoke, at Chelsea). Just 22 of Coutinho's 71 shots (30.9%) have been on-target, which is almost exactly Liverpool's (pretty bad) overall shooting accuracy. One on-target, easily scooped up by Mannone, from his last 11 shots is an especially woeful stretch.

No one in the league has taken more shots than Coutinho. Kane has 67, Lukaku 66, Ighalo 64, and Vardy 60; those are the only players with 60 or more. Of course, those are all strikers, and Kane's scored 11, Lukaku 15, Ighalo 13, and Vardy 14. Coutinho, I reiterate, has scored five. His 4.8 shots-per-90 is Luis Suarez pace, who averaged 4.5 (in half a campaign), 4.5, 5.7, and 5.5 shots-per-90 in his four Premier League seasons.

Maybe take a couple fewer shots, Phil. But more importantly, please do better with the ones you take.

Meanwhile, yesterday saw Benteke's most creative game since Klopp became manager, with three key passes: a layoff for Can's blocked shot from distance in the first half, and inside-the-box cutbacks for Coutinho and Can in the second half, blocked and off-target respectively. Again, three isn't a lot, but it's better than he (and Liverpool) have done recently. Benteke created four chances in Liverpool's 1-0 win against Bournemouth back in August, but hasn't created more than two in a league match since, doing so against West Brom, Newcastle, Palace, Chelsea, and Arsenal.

Ten of Benteke's 20 passes went to Coutinho, with six in the return direction, Liverpool's joint-second highest pass combination (behind Can and Coutinho), and by far the most those two have combined for in a match this season.

Benteke scoring, Benteke creating, Benteke combining fairly often with at least one of Liverpool's other attackers (and, thankfully, not at his most involved from Mignolet passes) are all good things. Of course Klopp's right in that Benteke can play better, and Liverpool need Benteke to play better, but the last two matches have seen more positives than negatives.

As for the other end of the pitch. Again, Sunderland are Sunderland, but Liverpool remain very, very good at limiting opposition shots. Sunderland took just eight (they're averaging 11 per match), with only three inside the box.

Liverpool have allowed 10 or more shots in a league match under Klopp just twice: at Tottenham (13 shots, zero goals) and at Manchester City (11 shots, one goal). But Liverpool allowed 10 or more in five of Rodgers' eight: Bournemouth (h), Arsenal (a), West Ham (h), Villa (h), Everton (a).

Admittedly, Liverpool have conceded multiple goals while allowing few shots: two at Newcastle (from six shots), two against West Brom (four shots), three at Watford (six shots). But if the opposition has few chances to score, chances are that they'll score fewer goals. It went all a bit wobbly over the last month, but the improvement in defense – notably, the new Lovren-Sakho pairing – remains Klopp's greatest achievement so far.

Now, Liverpool just need to score more of their own.

Liverpool at Sunderland 12.30.15

2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a) 01.10.15
0-0 (h) 12.06.14
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.26.14
3-1 Liverpool (a) 09.29.13

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Leicester (h); 0-3 Watford (a); 2-2 West Brom (h)
Sunderland: 1-4 City (a); 1-3 Chelsea (a); 0-1 Watford (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Coutinho 5; Ings, Milner, Sturridge 2; Firmino, Henderson, Origi, Skrtel 1
Sunderland: Defoe, Fletcher 4; Borini, Lens, Watmore 2; Johnson, Jones, M'Vila, van Aanholt 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can
Ibe Lallana Coutinho
Benteke

A busy festive season, a squad still coping with injuries, a match four days before and another three days later.

You have to assume there will be changes to Liverpool's XI. How many and which are less certain.

Benteke's definitely coming in for Origi, who's out for at least this week. Sturridge remains in his "mini-preseason," ideally building up his fitness so these constantly injuries might, you know, actually abate. I suspect Ibe, back from illness, will replace Firmino, but it could also be in place of Lallana or Coutinho. Otherwise, *shrugs*.

Maybe we get one of the young fullbacks: Brad Smith for Moreno or Connor Randall for Clyne; Smith's crossing ability could pair well with Benteke up front. Maybe Lucas returns to the side, for either Henderson or Can, or for one of the attacking midfielders, switching the formation to a 4-3-2-1/4-3-3. Maybe we get Kolo Toure because … no, you're right, that's not going to happen.

Whatever the XI or formation, Liverpool will have to do what they did well against Leicester – the high work-rate, the pressing on the flanks and on the forwards, the elimination of individual errors, the denial of counter-attacking or set play opportunities – and ideally do much, much better in attack.

Sunderland are 19th and Sunderland have been fairly bad over the last month, but that's little matter when Liverpool are still Liverpool far too often, and given who Sunderland's manager is.

If he could choose just one opponent to beat for the rest of his days, I'm fairly certain Sam Allardyce would pick Liverpool. Because Benitez, or something. But no matter who he's managing (or who's managing Liverpool) – Bolton, Newcastle, Blackburn, West Ham – he's taken great joy in getting one over on Liverpool. And it's happened far too often for my liking.

Allardyce will Allardyce and Sunderland will Sunderland. Sit deep, deny space, maybe even try for a counter-attack once in a while. Sure, Sunderland have conceded the most goals in the division – 37 through 18 matches – but, knowing Liverpool, that probably makes it more of a challenge than an opportunity. And those most of those goals have come on the road: 28 in the 10 away matches, just nine in the eight home matches.

Sunderland have played both five at the back and 4-3-3/4-5-1 in recent matches. Neither's worked especially well – conceding six at Everton, three at Arsenal and Chelsea, and four at Manchester City over the last two months – but Sunderland have been marginally better at home, even if it's not shown up in the results, with narrow 0-1 defeats to Southampton and Watford, and a 2-0 victory over now-in-form Stoke.

And Sunderland aren't entirely awful up front – Defoe and Fletcher are good players, ex-players featuring against their former clubs are always terrifying (hi Fabio!) – having scored in 12 of their 18 league matches. Liverpool have only scored in one more match than that. Sure, there are just four teams who've scored the same amount or fewer league goals than Sunderland. Liverpool held Swansea scoreless, but conceded twice against Villa, Newcastle, and West Brom. Yikes.

Sunderland's injury issues in defense make five at the back a more difficult proposition: Kaboul's definitely out, while O'Shea's doubtful. Jones, Coates, and Wes Brown can play in a back three, but Brown's only made one appearance this season (the 2-6 loss at Everton), and the 5-4-1 has been used less over the last month due to both injuries and DeAndre Yedlin's form at right wing-back.

The midfielders will be Yann M'Vila and one other: Rodwell, Gomez, Cattermole, or Toivonen; Seb Larsson's also out through injury. The wide players – if it's not five at the back – will be two from Adam Johnson, Borini, Lens, Watmore. The forwards could be any of those wide players, as well as Defoe, Fletcher, or Graham.

Let's go with Pantilimon; Jones, Coates, Brown, van Aanholt; Rodwell, M'Vila, Gomez; Borini, Fletcher, Defoe, and almost certainly be wrong in a couple of places. Regardless of formation or players, you know what you're getting with Sam Allardyce – a deep-lying defense and combative midfield, special attention paid to set plays, and counter-attacking through two or three forwards and maaaaaaaaybe a midfielder.

It'll be up to Liverpool to both break them down, as Liverpool couldn't do at either Newcastle or Watford, and to deny their few goal-scoring opportunities, as Liverpool couldn't do at either Newcastle or Watford.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Sunderland

Previous Match Infographics: Leicester (h), Swansea (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (a), Basel (h), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke (h), Ludogorets (a), Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Liverpool have held its opponents to five or fewer shots six times since Rodgers became manager: three times in 2012-13 (5-0 Norwich, 0-2 West Brom, 5-0 Swansea), once in 2013-14 (4-0 Fulham), and now twice in 2014-15 (the other was 0-1 Villa). Previously, Liverpool had either won at a canter or lost pathetically.

But yesterday was different. Yesterday, Liverpool scored early and kept shooting (except for that embarrassing 15-minute spell just after Bridcutt's red card), but never found the needed second to blow the game open.

Liverpool at least continued to shut down Sunderland. Admittedly, Sunderland are not good up front – they only took seven shots in the reserve fixture – but this Liverpool side hasn't been good at limiting shots or goals very often either, allowing 16, 11, and 16 in the previous three games against Burnley, Swansea, and Leicester. Saturday saw a second successive clean sheet away from home – the first time that's happened since Southampton and United last March. Liverpool have committed just one Opta-defined defensive error in the last five matches: Sakho's giveaway leading to Bony's chance against Swansea. By hook, by crook, and by crossbar, Liverpool held on when Sunderland's threatening spell finally happened.

But there are still obvious issues at the other end of the pitch. Yet again, I can't help but talk about Liverpool's shooting. 21 shots, but just four on-target. 19%. No player with more than one shot on-target. And 19% is only the fifth-worst of the season, behind Villa (5.6%), Palace (8.3%), Sunderland at home (13.3%), and Stoke (18.8%).

Liverpool's lowest shot accuracy in a match last season? 20%, at Aston Villa, when Liverpool took just five shots. Liverpool were only under 30% three other times: the 4-1 win over West Ham, the 3-1 win over Cardiff, and the 1-1 draw at West Brom, which was arguably Liverpool's worst performance of the season.

It's even worse than 2012-13, when Liverpool shot worse than 20% in just three matches: 0-3 at West Brom, 2-2 against City, and 1-0 against Stoke – three of the first seven matches of the campaign.

Shot accuracy obviously isn't the end-all, be-all – Liverpool shot better than 45% in losses at West Ham, Newcastle, and United this season – but it is, by far, the biggest difference between this season and last. But that's what happens when you go from Suarez and Sturridge to Sterling, Balotelli, Lambert, and Borini.

At least Liverpool were in position to take 21 shots, just the fourth time that's happened this season, and the first time it's happened away from home (24 v Everton, 27 v Arsenal, and 21 v Swansea).

Liverpool's striker created the most chances in the side, for only the third time this season (Sterling was joint-top with three against Leicester, and led the side with four at United), and that's despite going off in the 67th minute. Borini did not do anywhere near enough in front of goal, spurning his one opportunity when put through by Can, but at least he was creative. And his assist for Markovic's goal was his first assist for Liverpool.

As against Swansea, Lucas and Henderson looked a much more viable (and mobile!) midfield than any other pairing we've seen this season.

Sunderland saw a lot of the ball, but their possession was mainly limited to the four defenders; Vergini, O'Shea, Brown, and van Aanholt were responsible for 55% of Sunderland's completed passes. Nine of Liverpool's 26 successful tackles came in Sunderland's half, which is both the most and highest percentage away from home this season.

Six corners and five free kicks in Liverpool's half led to just two Sunderland shots: Larsson's easy long-range effort held by Mignolet (Sunderland's only shot on-target), and Gomez's swiftly blocked effort in second half injury time.

Despite the narrow scoreline, Liverpool did a lot of good things. No mistakes, clean sheet, an above average amount of shots. Limiting the amount of opposition opportunities and, aside from that 15-minute stretch after the red card, dictating play and setting the tempo. And all of that happened away from home, probably the best away performance since the 3-0 win at Tottenham. Of course, the only other alternatives are the 3-1 win at Leicester, where Leicester were simply terrible, and the 0-3 loss at United. Yeah, it hasn't been a good season away from Anfield.

So that's progress. But until Liverpool are able to consistently convert opportunities when they actually create opportunities, the matches will remain frustrating and frightening at best, and infuriating, regrettable and costly at worst.

Liverpool 1-0 Sunderland

Goals:
Markovic 8'

Liverpool can never do things the easy way.

Liverpool were very good in the first half, and it was unfathomable that the half ended 1-0. Well, unfathomable if Liverpool weren't Liverpool and we weren't used to this Liverpool.

Markovic should have won a clear-cut penalty in the 3rd minute. Gerrard had a wicked wide free kick tipped over in the 29th minute. From the resulting corner, Markovic's half-volley rebound cannoned off the woodwork and goalkeeper. Borini rounded the keeper following Can's long ball in the 44th but could only shoot into the side-netting from a narrow angle. Coutinho and Gerrard had half-chances but either mis-kicked or tamely shot wide.

Meanwhile, Sunderland took just one first half shot: a 30-yard free kick from Larsson sent straight at Mignolet.

But no matter how well Liverpool had played, you just knew the second half would be different. It'd see Sunderland attack, it'd see Liverpool sit deeper, and it'd see Liverpool come under threat. It'd evoke memories of the 1-1 horror show which started the 2011-12 campaign. And even though Bridcutt picked up a second yellow in the 49th minute, that's exactly what happened.

It did not help that Lovren replaced Gerrard at halftime, withdrawn as a precaution because of a tight hamstring, Can first switching to attacking midfielder, then right wing-back a few minutes later. I do not know why it wasn't Manquillo, with Markovic shifting to attacking midfielder (as he eventually did). My only guess is that Rodgers hasn't given up on Lovren, even though everyone else has, and is looking for any way to return him to the side. All I know is that it went about as well as you could expect.

Sunderland should have been level five minutes after the sending off, when Johnson, in acres of space, pinged a speculative shot from distance off the crossbar — just like Markovic's in the first half — hit Mignolet, and was somehow cleared behind. I'll churlishly note that the shot came from Liverpool's inside right channel. You know, where Dejan Lovren was playing.

To be fair, that was Sunderland's only threatening opportunity until late. They took just five shots all match, and three came well after the 80th minute. The away side were mostly untroubled in the final 20 minutes, after Balotelli replaced Borini, until injury time. But Sunderland had too much possession, too many set plays, for a side a man down, after Liverpool had been so impressive in the first half. We'd seen Liverpool stupidly relinquish a lead despite being "dominant" far too often this season. It only takes one moment, a moment like Johnson's 54th minute shot.

But Liverpool didn't give them many moments after the 54th-minute fright, and Sunderland couldn't take the few they did.

As influential as Coutinho and Markovic were in the first half, Lucas was in the second half. More of his tackles and clearances came in the opening 45 minutes, but his protection of the back three, work rate, and positioning were vastly more needed with Liverpool under pressure. It's amazing what he can do with a) fresh legs after five days off and b) Henderson as protection. It's utterly insane that we're seeing rumors of a January departure given the state and balance of Liverpool's squad.

But even though it should have been better, it could have been worse. Liverpool got all three points, Liverpool kept a clean sheet. By hook or by crook, by luck or talent.

Liverpool's +16 shot differential was the second-best of the season (behind +20 in the 2-2 draw against Arsenal), and only the second time Liverpool reached that margin away from home under Brendan Rodgers (outshooting Palace 26-10 in last season's 3-3). Liverpool just, you know, still need to get more of those shots on target.

And it's consecutive 1-0 away wins in the league for the first time since 1976 (beating Leicester and Sunderland, coincidentally). Sure, Liverpool have won consecutive away matches an awful lot since then, even kept consecutive away clean sheets an awful lot since then (the last being 3-0 wins at Southampton and United last spring), but the ability to see out close, contentious, frightening games is a good ability to have. And it's an ability that Liverpool need to demonstrate on a consistent basis.

Liverpool at Sunderland 01.10.15

7:45am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 12.06.14
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.26.14
3-1 Liverpool (a) 09.29.13
3-0 Liverpool (h) 01.02.13

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Wimbledon (a); 2-2 Leicester (h); 4-1 Swansea (h)
Sunderland: 1-0 Leeds (h); 2-3 City (a); 0-0 Villa (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Gerrard 5; Lallana, Own Goal, Sterling 4; Coutinho, Henderson, Moreno 2; Can, Johnson, Lambert, Skrtel, Sturridge 1
Sunderland: Fletcher, Johnson 4; Gomez, Larsson, Rodwell, Wickham 2; Cattermole 1

Referee: Craig Pawson

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Can Skrtel Sakho
Manquillo Henderson Lucas Moreno
Gerrard Coutinho
Sterling

For once, Liverpool's lineup seems to write itself.

Sterling will undoubtedly return to the lineup as the striker.

Toure's now at the African Cup of Nations while Johnson's still injured and Lovren's still Lovren, so the back three has to be Can, Skrtel, and Sakho.

Lallana's calf injury seemingly ensures Gerrard will start further forward, as against Wimbledon. Which ensures Henderson will partner Lucas. Which ensures Manquillo will be needed at wing-back.

The one spot up for grabs is left wing-back, either Moreno or Markovic. Markovic is seemingly more useful against a packed defense, but Markovic could also be crucial as a game-changing sub off the bench, able to add pace at either wing-back or in attack when sides begin to tire.

There are a couple of alternatives. Bring in Balotelli or Lambert, use Sterling as an attacking midfielder, and either drop Gerrard into midfield or drop Gerrard entirely. Or maybe Rodgers changes the formation, reverting to a diamond or a 3-4-1-2 rather than a 3-4-2-1. But both of those alternatives seem very unlikely.

Over the last couple of months, Sunderland have become draw specialists. Six of their last 10 league matches have ended with honors even, four of those at 0-0, including the last time these two sides met. Sunderland have kept six clean sheets since the beginning of November, which is one more than Liverpool have kept all season (all competitions).

Rodwell, Cattermole, Reveillere, Mannone, and Ricky Alvarez are all doubtful, while Seba Coates is ineligible due to the terms of his loan. If all those players don't feature, Sunderland's XI should be Pantilimon; Vergini, O'Shea, Brown, Jones; Bridcutt; Buckley, Larsson, Gomez, Johnson; Wickham. Which is nearly the exact lineup as in the reverse fixture, except for Buckley in place of Altidore and Jones in place of Reveillere. Cattermole and/or Rodwell are the only ones who'd seem certain to start if available. Both usually play as the deepest midfielder in Sunderland's 4-1-4-1, but both are capable of playing in either Gomez or Larsson's spot further forward as well.

Sunderland's primary philosophy is to keep it tight at the back and be difficult to beat. Any goals scored are a bonus. That's not the best way to face Liverpool. As Leicester demonstrated, as Wimbledon demonstrated, as many, many others have demonstrated, the best way to face Liverpool is to attack Liverpool.

Sunderland, at home, will probably do some attacking. More than in the last meeting, at least, where their entire attack consisted of Wickham throwing himself to the ground in the box and looking hopefully at the referee. And Sunderland demonstrated they're capable of attacking if given the chance, coming back from a two-goal deficit at City before losing 2-3. Still, I expect that this will look more like Liverpool's previous matches against Burnley, Stoke, and, yes, Sunderland.

Which presents a different, if nearly equally difficult challenge: cutting through a packed defense determined to deny space and block shots, a tactic which has often frustrated Liverpool this season. The template for that remains Liverpool's 4-1 win over Swansea, where clever movement, pace, and ball retention eventually led to broken lines, defensive mistakes, and four Liverpool goals.

But, for now, that match remains the exception rather than the rule.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 Sunderland

Previous Match Infographics: Leicester (a), Stoke (h), Ludogorets (a), Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

There's little more to say that hasn't been said in previous match infographic posts.

With Lucas and Toure back in the side, Liverpool have thankfully gotten better in defense. As against Stoke, Liverpool didn't make a single defensive error, for only the sixth time in 15 matches. Sunderland rarely had a threatening attack that didn't end with Wickham throwing himself to the ground and gesticulating for a penalty he didn't deserve. Liverpool only allowed seven Sunderland shots, with just one on target. Lucas made seven tackles and five interceptions, leading the team in both categories, while Toure and Skrtel also had high tackle and interceptions totals respectively.

But Liverpool are still terrible in attack. Absolutely terrible.

The home side took 15 shots, which isn't an awful total, but had an Expected Goal total of just 0.9 from those 15 (via Michael Caley).

Just two of those 15 actually forced Costel Pantilimon into a save, and neither was an especially difficult save. Liverpool's shooting accuracy in the last four games? 8.33% (at Palace), 18.75% (v Stoke), 27.27% (at Leicester), 13.33% (v Sunderland). That's beyond horrific. As a reminder, Liverpool's shooting accuracy was 39.63% last season, an average they've surpassed just twice since Sturridge's (first) injury, at West Ham and at Newcastle, matches where Liverpool took 11 and six shots respectively. And yes, matches that still Liverpool lost.

Against Stoke, Liverpool's first shot on-target came in the 64th minute. Against Sunderland, it was in the 63rd. Two matches at Anfield against bottom-half sides, and Liverpool needed more than an hour to hit the target.

Only one Premier League match this season has produced fewer shots on-target than Liverpool (2) and Sunderland (1) did on Saturday. That was Liverpool v Aston Villa in early September, where each side managed to hit the target only once. I doubt I need to remind that Villa scored from their one, though.

Liverpool are ponderous, unable to create chances on the counter despite playing for it in the first half – with just two shots to show for their troubles, both at least inside the box but both off-target – and unable to create good chances despite monopolizing possession in the second half because the slow play allowed Sunderland to get into position and Liverpool simply could not break them down.

The Liverpool Echo, among others, highlighted how the front players failed to link up, using Coutinho and Lambert exchanging all of three passes as the primary example (all three from Lambert to Coutinho), but the entire attack except Coutinho and Sterling were guilty of it. Just one pass from Sterling to Lambert. Just five passes between Coutinho and Lallana. Just five passes between Henderson and Lambert, all five from Lambert to Henderson. The players who played the most passes to Rickie Lambert? Mignolet and Johnson, each finding the striker four times.

And once again, Coutinho failed to create a single chance, despite his 14 passes to Raheem Sterling. Sterling was Liverpool's primary creator, while Coutinho took more shots than any other Liverpool player. That seems backward. Coutinho's last key pass came against Chelsea, on November 8th. He's played 273 minutes since. And that's the only chance he's created in the league since Liverpool beat West Brom on October 4th. He's played 500 minutes since. Coutinho is yet to register an assist this season in any competition, after tallying eight last season. I realize that Coutinho hasn't had much help from the players in front of him – and neither Lambert nor Balotelli make the runs that Coutinho thrives off of, the movement that Sturridge and Suarez constantly demonstrated – but that's still really, really bad and really, really, really unhelpful.

Last season's goalscoring, aside from Suarez and Sturridge's individual brilliance, was defined by two traits: hammering the opposition from the opening whistle and the ability to convert set plays.

Well, since beating Tottenham on August 30th, Liverpool have scored in the first 20 minutes in three matches: a draw versus Ludogorets, a loss to Chelsea, and a loss at Crystal Palace, equalizing against Ludogorets and maintaining a lead for just five minutes against Chelsea and 15 minutes at Palace. And Liverpool have scored on just three set plays in the league this season (if we're being generous and counting Lallana's opener at Leicester), with none of those coming from a corner. Liverpool have had 77 corners this season.

Yes, at least the defense has improved, even if neither Stoke nor Sunderland are the most dangerous of opponents. That's at least a little progress, and even if neither seem a long-term solution, both Lucas and Toure have made Liverpool a more resilient side.

But the attack still has a very, very long way to go.