Showing posts with label Norwich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Norwich. Show all posts

25 January 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 5-4 Norwich

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


How do you summarize that? I guess we'll start with something that Liverpool did surprisingly well, for a pleasant change.

Liverpool actually finished their chances, for the first time in a long time. 13 shots is Liverpool's fewest since Watford (a), and the third-lowest since Klopp became manager. At the least, it's the first time in a long time without Daniel Sturridge – 6-1 at Southampton a mix of his prowess and opposition which seemingly gave up after conceding a third.

Seven of 13 shots on-target – 53.8% – is Liverpool's third-highest in the league this season behind 63.4% in 4-1 City (Liverpool at their absolute best) and 57.2% in 3-2 Villa (Sturridge).

Firmino's second, Henderson's, and Milner's goals were wonderfully taken, shots that each have struggled with this season. Firmino's first, which I initially thought was off-target, was probably going in anyway, and from a very acute angle. Only Lallana's winner seemed fortunate, hit into the ground, looping and unsaveable.

Saturday also saw the first time Liverpool have scored two clear-cut chances since that 4-1 win at Manchester City, only the second time it's happened in a league match this season.

Roberto Firmino finding form is, unsurprisingly, a massive part of these positives. Two braces in his last three starts, five goals and three assists (which should be four, if setting up an OG actually counted as an assist) in his six league starts as the lone striker: Norwich, United, Arsenal, Watford, City, and Chelsea. Three wins – where Firmino has three goals and three assists – two losses, and a draw.

But while Firmino has been crucial, Liverpool's improvement when it comes to both mid-game alterations and overcoming setbacks have been just as important, if not more so.

We've now seen eight goals from substitutes since Klopp became manager: six the league, one in each domestic cup. Those six substitute goals in the league have earned Liverpool seven points: a point against Southampton (a draw that should have been a win), a point against West Brom, two points against Leicester, a point against Arsenal, and two points at Norwich. Five substitute goals, five of the eight, with Liverpool either level or behind, all in the league.

The last time a Liverpool substitute scored under Brendan Rodgers? Mario Balotelli's penalty against Besiktas in the Europa League 11 months ago. In the league? Again, Balotelli, the winner against Spurs a week before Besiktas. Liverpool substitutes scored seven goals in total last season: four in the league, two in the League Cup, one in the Europa League: Balotelli 3; Coutinho, Lambert, Sturridge, Suso 1.

And then there's the fact that Liverpool actually came back to win despite going behind, something else that rarely happened under Rodgers. Last time it happened in the league? 3-1 at Leicester, December 2014. Under Klopp, Liverpool also did it at Chelsea in the league, against Bordeaux in the Europa League, and at Southampton in the League Cup.

The last time Liverpool came back from a two-goal deficit under Rodgers, in any competition? Never. Not even to draw, let alone win. If Liverpool went two goals down under the previous manager – which, to be fair, didn't happen all that often – that was it. Game over.

For all Liverpool's faults, for all the lingering issues that haven't improved under the new manager, self-belief and an ability to recover from misfortune have certainly gotten better. We've come a long way since Klopp mused about how alone he felt after Southampton's late equalizer at Anfield three months ago.

But there's also the argument that Saturday was irregular, out of the ordinary, and probably not often repeatable. Liverpool haven't won by this scoreline since May 2001, the UEFA Cup Final against Deportivo Alaves, needing extra time to achieve that result. That was the last time Liverpool let in four goals but still won the match; it hasn't happened in the league since April 1991, a 5-4 win at Leeds. Nearly 25 years ago. Before the Premier League was actually the Premier League.

Liverpool conceded three in the league three times yet still won in 2013-14 – 5-3 at Stoke, 4-3 v Swansea, 6-3 at Cardiff – but that was a nonsensical season in so many ways. Yet Liverpool never conceded four in a match that season, despite that defense's propensity for hilarity.

Since the beginning of 2005-06, in the last decade, Liverpool have conceded four in a league match just six times: Saturday; 1-6 at Stoke and 1-4 at Arsenal in 2014-15; 0-4 at Tottenham in 2011-12; 4-4 v Arsenal in 2008-09; 1-4 at Chelsea in 2005-06. It's not a common occurrence. It shouldn't be a common occurrence. And half of them have happened in the last calendar year.

So, yeah, there are still multiple problems at the other end of the pitch. Again. Conceding from a corner for the eighth time in the league. Conceding from the first shot on-target for the 13th time in the league. Conceding an equalizer just 11 minutes after taking a 1-0 lead; Liverpool have conceded within 20 minutes of taking the lead 10 times this season: Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, and Sion under Rodgers; Southampton, West Brom, Arsenal (twice) and Norwich (twice) under Klopp.

These are issues we've encountered before.

And every single goal that Liverpool conceded seemed preventable. Uncleared set plays for the first and fourth. Lucas and Can both fully aware where Naismith is before he starts his run for the second, both in position to track his run, neither bothering to actually track said run, with the added bonus of Naismith's no-angle shot sneaking in under Mignolet's wrist. An absolutely brain-dead Moreno penalty for the third, and another shot Mignolet could have saved – although, to be fair, any penalty save is an unexpected bonus.

Liverpool again allow few shots, but the ones they allow are good chances, even if Saturday's were less good than usual: needing a back heel, wide-box shot, out-box shot, and penalty. Still, six Norwich shots in total, four goals. One shot on-target saved from the last seven shots on-target faced. Liverpool's save percentage in the league is now below 60% for the first time this season, and still the second-worst in the league behind only Bournemouth.

Of course, I'm sure every single Norwich supporter feels the opposite about the goals. 'Ours were the good goals! Yours were either preventable or flukes! A back-heel! Naismith's excellent run! A deserved penalty! Bassong from long range! Rudd nearly saving Firmino's first, only for his touch to spin it into the net off the post; Henderson not tracked for the second, with another lucky touch from Firmino to set it up; the entire defense stupidly out of position for the third; an insane back pass for the fourth; two failed clearances and a mis-hit lucky finish for the fifth.'

But, yeah, that's football. And what Saturday reminded me, more than all the above statistics and opinion, is that football can be really, really fun. We haven't been reminded of that nearly often enough.

23 January 2016

Liverpool 5-4 Norwich

Goals:
Firmino 18' 63'
Mbokani 29'
Naismith 41'
Hoolahan 54' (pen)
Henderson 55'
Milner 75'
Bassong 90+3'
Lallana 90+5'

Thankfully, Norwich were more Norwich than Liverpool were Liverpool. Five bloody four. I can't even.

It was the best of Liverpool and the worst of Liverpool and nothing in between. And the best eked out a victory over the worst. Barely. So many Liverpool mistakes at the back – from set plays, from open play – and not for the first time, but a surprising amount of fight up front. The much-mocked "character." Five goals in a league match for the first time since Luis Suarez was a Liverpool player. Coming back from two goals down, then finding an 95th minute winner after conceding an equalizer in the 93rd.

12 shots on-target from the two sides led to nine goals. Defending is dead, and you're urinating on the ashes.

Stop me if you're heard this one before. Liverpool score first, but the opposition equalize. The opposition equalize from a corner, its first corner no less. The opposition equalizer from its first shot on-target.

Firmino's opener came from a surprisingly decent move: Moreno bombs down the left, centers to Milner, a throughball to Firmino, his shot off Rudd but also off the post into the goal. But Liverpool fail to push on from the opener, Milner fails to even get a shot off when one-on-one with the keeper three minutes later, delaying just long enough to allow Brady to make a recovery tackle. And Norwich grow into the game. And 11 minutes after Liverpool score, Liverpool concede: a corner not cleared, Norwich beating Liverpool to three of four aerial duels, Toure losing who he's supposed to be marking and Mbokani controlling in front of Sakho before a clever back-heel which beats Mignolet. It took Liverpool 13 minutes to concede an equalizer from a corner after scoring the opener in the reverse fixture.

You're supposed to be getting better, not worse.

It's the 10th-consecutive league match where if Liverpool concede, it's from the first shot on-target that Liverpool allow. It's the 9th time that Liverpool conceded an equalizer after taking a 1-0 lead: five times in Rodgers' 11 matches, four times in Klopp's 24 matches. This was the first match that Liverpool won, at least within 90 minutes, needing penalties to beat Carlisle 1-1.

29 minutes gone, an unnecessary but not unexpected equalizer conceded. Liverpool knocked back. Liverpool on tilt, conceding a second when Can and Lucas obstinately refused to track Naismith's run, a no-angle shot somehow beating Mignolet. Liverpool conceding a third when Moreno twice fouled Naismith in the box, the first uncalled, the second so obvious it actually hurt, with Mignolet guessing correctly on Hoolahan's penalty but unable to stop it.

Three Norwich shots on-target. Three Norwich goals. Combine that with Arsenal's third goal and United's lone goal, and Liverpool had conceded five goals from the last five shots on-target in the league. Mignolet's certainly earning that new contract.

1-3 down. An early kickoff away from home. An underwhelming, to say the least, Liverpool performance. Opposition that Liverpool should really be beating, that has no right to be two goals ahead of Liverpool before an hour's gone. Seemingly, 0-2 at West Ham all over again.

But a minute after Norwich's third, Liverpool pull one back: Liverpool build from the back, Clyne's cross, Firmino's touch on, Henderson's half volley from 12 yards out. And Liverpool slowly, surely, reassert themselves upon proceedings, aided immensely by the often (and rightfully) criticized Adam Lallana. Firmino gets his second, Liverpool's equalizer, when Liverpool quickly break from the back down the left: Firmino to Milner to Lallana, a first-time cross to a wide-open Firmino, one touch, goal. Milner gives Liverpool the lead thanks to Russell Martin's unbelievable blind back-pass, Liverpool finally scoring when a player's one-on-one with the opposition keeper, making amends for the earlier untaken chance in the 21st minute.

4-3, with 15 minutes to go. Just don't do anything stupid. Ha.

For 18 minutes, Liverpool "succeeded." Hoof, clear, regroup. Fine. Sure, it's Norwich, but any port in a storm. Then, in the 93rd minute, a deep free kick when Benteke was stupidly, unnecessarily caught offside. Thumped forward, Liverpool unable to win the header. A bouncing ball, hammered in by Bassong – off all people; a player who hadn't scored a league goal since December 2012 – from just outside the box, only the second league goal that Liverpool have conceded from outside the box this season. It was 1-1 Everton from last season all over again, Jagielka's injury-time stroke of fortune from the exact same spot.

4-4. Two points dropped, then three points gained, then two points dropped, again. Yet another draw despite having the lead. Twice, in fact. Everything gained, then everything lost, then everything gained, then everything lost.

Sigh. Norwich hadn't scored four in a Premier League match since May 2013. 62 matches before this.

Somehow, Liverpool weren't done, and it was Lallana – Lallana! – with his first league goal since May, after Can's left-footed cross, Caulker and Benteke in the box and refusing to let Norwich clear, Lallana finding the loose ball with a left-footed strike into the ground that looped over Rudd. With basically the last kick of the game.

Football is insane sometimes. This is why we watch football. Of course, it'd be much easier to appreciate the insanity of this game, the brilliance of this comeback, if we hadn't seen these mistakes from Liverpool time and time and time and time again.

Liverpool live at DEFCON 1, imminent danger perpetually imminent. Liverpool can concede against any opposition from any position, early and often. Corners and opposition shots on-target have become a self-fulfilling prophecy, the side clearly aware of the same awful statistics that we're aware of, always expecting the worst. And rarely disappointed.

But Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool can also, at least, battle back. Liverpool can take four punches and sometimes, somehow, deliver their own fifth. Liverpool can go absolutely mad at both ends of the pitch, then go absolutely mad with their manger in celebration in the final minute of added time. As against West Brom, as against Arsenal, with the added bonus of all three points this time. Three very much needed points.

Football is brilliant and football is stupid, and that's why we love it. Football should be emotional. Football should be ecstatic yelps and emphatic tears. Football should be 90 minutes of hell and heaven, not 90 minutes of sterility. This is why we watch sport.

Never forget to enjoy it when it works in your favor.

22 January 2016

Liverpool at Norwich 1.23.16

7:45am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 09.20.15
3-2 Liverpool (a) 04.20.14
5-1 Liverpool (h) 12.04.13
5-0 Liverpool (h) 01.19.13

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Exeter (h); 0-1 United (h); 3-3 Arsenal (h)
Norwich: 0-3 Bournemouth (a); 1-3 Stoke (a); 0-3 City (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 6; Coutinho 5; Firmino 3; Ings, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Henderson, Origi, Skrtel 1
Norwich: Redmond 4; Howson, Jerome, Martin, Mbokani 3; Hoolahan, Tettey 2; Brady, Grabban, Jarvis, Whittaker 1

Referee: Lee Mason

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can Milner
Firmino Benteke Ibe

As if Liverpool didn't have enough injury issues, Lallana's now doubtful with a muscle problem. Coutinho, Sturridge, Origi, et al unsurprisingly remain absent. At this rate, Liverpool will have no senior attackers left.

Despite Benteke and Ibe both playing 90 minutes of Wednesday, you'd assume at least one of them, and probably both, would have to start, whether in the above 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 with Ibe on the right, Milner on the left, and Firmino drifting centrally around Benteke.

The only other option seems 4-4-2 diamond: a midfield with four from Lucas, Henderson, Can, Milner, and Allen behind Firmino and Benteke. I worry about Henderson or Milner's ability to create from the apex of the diamond, but otherwise, that's actually not a bad option. Liverpool will almost certainly dominate possession. This formation would allow the four-man midfield to control tenor and tempo while fullbacks provide the width and both Benteke and Firmino (ideally) challenge Norwich's center backs. Play through the middle through Firmino, cross to Benteke, with at least two runners from midfield making those needed and dangerous runs into the box.

You never know; maybe a new formation will actually help Liverpool score goals for a change. Otherwise, same old, same old in defense. Lovren and Skrtel are still out, Clyne and Moreno will remain ever-present (although it is reassuring to see competition from Smith on the left and the returning Flanagan on the right). The goals remain "don't do anything stupid," "defend the damned set plays," and "hey, maybe save the opposition's first shot on-target." Liverpool, somehow, have kept a clean sheet in the last six matches (all competitions) when saving the first shot on-target. Liverpool are weird.

Maybe Tuesday's second leg cup semi-final will come into play, and Liverpool will deploy a slightly weaker XI than expected, but given the injury situation and recent results, I suspect Liverpool will just have to pick its XI for this match, and hope everything works out for the next. No matter Liverpool's current form or position, the league isn't the FA Cup.

Meanwhile, Norwich are on a bit of a slide, losing their last three matches, allowing three goals in each of those matches. Don't get excited. Liverpool are still Liverpool and Norwich have still been surprisingly good at home: unbeaten in the league at Carrow Road since October 24, with draws against Arsenal and Everton, and wins over Swansea, Villa, and Southampton.

Amazingly for this time of year, Norwich have no one injured. Gary O'Neil is suspended and Andre Wisdom is ineligible, but neither would start anyway. They've signed Steven Naismith, Timo Klose (center-back), Ivo Pinto (right-back), and Ben Godfrey (18-year-old midfielder) this month, and at least two – Naismith and Klose – will probably debut. Naismith's routinely played well against Liverpool when starting for Everton, even if he's only scored once in his four starts, with Everton and Liverpool finishing level in each of those matches.

So let's guess Naismith and Klose start, and that Redmond comes back into the side after appearing as a substitute in the last couple of matches. Norwich's XI should be Rudd; Martin, Bassong, Klose, Brady; Howson, Tettey; Naismith, Hoolahan, Redmond; Mbokani. Vadis Odjidja-Ofe could keep his place ahead of Redmond; Naismith could start up front if Norwich want to rely even more heavily on the counter-attack; Dorrans could be the third in midfield if Norwich line up in a 4-3-3; Ruddy could come back in for Rudd in goal after the latter's three concessions in the last two matches.

Tomorrow's match can seemingly go one of two ways. It could be Newcastle or Watford, where Liverpool fail to break down a resilient defense away from home, struggle to create chances, struggle to score, and concede one or more against the run of play. Or it could be Sunderland or Stoke, where Liverpool thankfully stay secure and eventually eke out a needed winner.

Frighteningly, seven of Norwich's 24 league goals have come from set plays. Which doesn't seem like a lot – hell, Liverpool are terrible at set plays and they've scored five – but that's 29.2% of all Norwich's goals. Only West Brom and Crystal Palace have a higher percentage scored from set plays. Liverpool conceded set play goals against both West Brom and Palace. And Norwich, in the reverse fixture. Sigh.

Liverpool still haven't won a league match in 2016: losing to West Ham and United, drawing with Arsenal. Liverpool still haven't been anywhere near good enough at either end of the pitch for weeks, if not months. Liverpool are still deservedly ninth, eight points off fourth and unable to make ground up in a narrow, unimpressive league.

Liverpool simply need to be better.

21 September 2015

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Norwich

Previous Match Infographics: Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



Rather than complaining about Liverpool's attack – which actually kinda sorta almost was better! – in general for the nth consecutive match, I'd rather focus on a single part of that attack, one which had played far too large a role in determining the outcome of Liverpool's attacks.

We might have to get the shock collar out of storage.

You may notice the insanely large shot total which Coutinho accumulated in the above graphic. 10. Ten shots. Two on-target, four off, four blocked. Yesterday, Coutinho took three more shots than Norwich took in total.

Ten shots is the most that Coutinho's ever taken in a Liverpool match. He took eight against Bournemouth last month, nine in the 0-0 at West Brom last season, eight in 4-1 against West Ham in 2013-14, and nine in 4-0 against Fulham in 2013-14. In both 2013-14 matches, he was still out-shot by Luis Suarez; that's how dominant Liverpool's attack was that season.

So, Coutinho putting up eight or more shots happened twice in almost two full seasons, and it's now happened three times during this dismal 12-match run starting last April. Liverpool's results in those three matches? 0-0, 1-0, and 1-1. Of the 27 shots he's taken in those three matches, Coutinho has put just four shots on-target. Four. Of 27. And failed to score.

His shooting through the first six matches – well, five because of his red card against West Ham – has left something to be desired.



Is this bad? This is probably bad.

Six on-target, including one goal; 12 off-target, including one off of the woodwork; and 10 blocked. Eight in the Danger Zone, six from wide box areas, and 14 – 50% of his shots! – from outside the box. Coutinho's 28 shots account for 33% of Liverpool's total shots – nearly a third – and he's missed almost a match and a half of Liverpool's six.

It didn't used to be like this.

• Coutinho last season: 3.3 shots p90, 1.9 KP p90
• Coutinho this season: 6.3 shots p90, 0.7 KP p90

Yes, yes, it's only six games into the season, Coutinho's only played in five, but so far he's taking almost double the amount of shots, but providing fewer than half the amount of key passes. Not only is Coutinho wasting Liverpool's possession in the final third with errant, unlikely shots, but if Coutinho's taking the shot, Coutinho's not creating chances. And that's where he's far more valuable.

Coutinho was Liverpool's third-most creative player last season; only Sterling and Gerrard played more key passes per 90. In 2013-14, he was second, behind only Suarez. This season? He's 10th – behind Moreno, Firmino, Milner, Lallana, Lucas, Benteke, Ings, Can, and Ibe. And I'm not even counting Origi, Sturridge, or Sakho, who have all played 90 minutes or less.

Alberto Moreno created more chances yesterday than Coutinho has in five league matches this season. In fact, Moreno created twice as many chances yesterday as Coutinho has this season. Yikes.

Granted, it's not as if Liverpool have been overflowing with players willing to shoot or capable of shooting all that often this season. Coutinho has necessarily had to pick up that slack, especially in the first couple of matches. But Liverpool played with two strikers for slightly more than an hour yesterday. Coutinho still took double the amount of shots than Ings, Sturridge, and Benteke combined. His lone key pass was pushing the ball wide to Moreno, who cut inside and hammered a shot at Ruddy.

There have been multiple issues, discussed at length, in Liverpool's attack. But one step towards fixing those issues seems to be having the scorers shoot and the creators create.

As per usual, it's not as if Liverpool have been much better at the other end of the pitch. But yesterday's goal continued a worrying trend of Liverpool players' involvement in opposition goals.

Four of the eight Liverpool goals conceded this season have had a Liverpool player's touch set up the opposition goal. Mignolet punching to Martin yesterday, Can's attempted tackle falling to Jussie against Bordeaux, Lovren's attempted clearance deflecting off Moreno for Sakho against West Ham, and Clyne's interception deflecting off Lucas to step up Noble against West Ham. That's an egregious amount of both individual mistakes and unfortunate bounces.

In addition, despite keeping clean sheets from the first three matches, Liverpool haven't been great at preventing threatening shots or saving those threatening shots.



37.9% of all shots allowed have come inside the Danger Zone (the middle of the penalty box). Seven goals, 10 off-target shots, four shots blocked, and just four on-target shots saved. For comparison, just 34.1% of Liverpool's shots in the league (29 of 85) have come in the Danger Zone, leading to two of Liverpool four goals. All seven goals conceded have come from the Danger Zone. At least, other than that – other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? – Liverpool have done well to deny wide box shots and force their opponents into a fairly high percentage of difficult long range shots, and they've conceded no goals from those two zone. Still, those Danger Zone shots…

But yesterday was better. Yes, yes, Norwich, but Liverpool allowed just two Danger Zone shots, both coming from Liverpool errors. One, from Sakho, somehow wasn't an actual Opta-defined error, ending with an excellent Mignolet save. The other, from Mignolet, was most certainly an error, ending with Norwich's goal. That's at least a modicum of progress, at least compared to the matches against West Ham and United.

Liverpool's attack, probably unsurprisingly, has been slow to take shape, diabolically bad last season and full of new players this season. Liverpool's defense, probably unsurprisingly, has been both unlucky and prone to individual mistakes.

These are reparable problems. Admittedly, they're reparable problems we've been complaining about for a full calendar, but nonetheless, Liverpool do seem to have the potential to fix them. And, as infuriating as it was, and as little margin for error Liverpool currently have, yesterday was at least a small first step.

20 September 2015

Liverpool 1-1 Norwich

Goals:
Ings 48'
Martin 61'

I wrote this match review almost four years ago. It wasn't any better then. An already frustrating season, a bunch of shots but just one goal, a keeper error equalizer around the hour mark, an inability to reclaim the lead despite 30 minutes of pressure.

It's déjà vu all over again.

Sure, Liverpool played better than we've seen for the majority of the season. Liverpool were at home, Liverpool were against Norwich. But it wasn't good enough, and Liverpool still screwed it up, because Liverpool still couldn't finish enough of their chances, and Liverpool again conceded an unnecessary set play goal. Stop me if you've heard this one before.

Sturridge's return made Liverpool better, having a strike partner made Benteke better. The switch to 3-4-1-2 made Liverpool better. Sakho and Moreno back in the side made Liverpool better. It was more than a bit frustrating at the beginning – Liverpool's midfield struggled to assert control, Liverpool's forwards were close but not quite close enough to connecting, Liverpool still failed to create the amount of chances you'd expect from the amount of possession – but there was only one team in the match in the opening half.

Those are the sort of foibles you'd expect from an unfamiliar XI in a new formation, but Liverpool and Rodgers don't have enough credit in the bank to have earned much patience.

That Benteke had to go off with a tight hamstring at halftime caused concerns, but it was his replacement who opened the scoring: Lucas pressing Norwich into a mistake in their own half, Moreno's deft pass over the back line, Ings' lovely control and shot between Ruddy's legs. Finally, the breakthrough, the moment Liverpool needed to push on in this match and revive the already flagging season.

Not quite. Sturridge had a fierce shot blocked, Coutinho put two off-target, and Norwich settled down after a short-lived tilt. And, because Liverpool, Norwich's first corner led to Norwich's first shot inside Liverpool's box, which was Norwich's first shot on-target. And Norwich's equalizer. Mignolet charged out to punch Brady's cross – something he did to excellent effect against Bordeaux, something he's gotten better at since returning to the side last December – and wholly failed, pushing it straight to an open Russell Martin, the center-back who also happens to be Norwich's top scorer. Control, flick, goal. Sigh.

At least it didn't get worse? Liverpool should have been behind less than five minutes later, when Sakho made his only mistake of the match, Redmond charged down Liverpool's left, and both Skrtel and Can failed to intercept the low cross. Somehow, Mignolet saved Jarvis' point-blank shot. A small bit of redemption, but his mistake's going to last a lot longer in the memory.

Then, the usual "flurry" without reward. Lallana replacing Sturridge, Firmino replacing Lucas, a switch to 4-3-3. Good efforts from Firmino and Moreno denied by Ruddy; Coutinho released on the break, but shooting too close to Norwich's keeper; Lallana and Ings nearly dancing through the box, but the latter unable to take the shot after rounding Ruddy; Lallana's half-volley nearly-but-not-quite redirected on goal by Can. Another Liverpool failure, when there have already been too many failures this season, and there's already next to no room for error.

Liverpool haven't scored twice in a match since May 2nd, against relegated QPR, 11 matches ago.

Liverpool haven't scored three in a match since February 10th, against Tottenham, 27 matches ago.

Liverpool have dropped 17 points after scoring first since the start of last season – draws against Everton, Arsenal, Leicester, and now Norwich; losses against Palace (twice) and Chelsea – and that doesn't include cup matches against Boro, Ludogorets, Villa, and Bordeaux.

So, Liverpool still can't score, and even when they do, Liverpool often can't hold onto a lead. No matter if Rodgers' line-up and in-game decisions all seemed sound today, that's still a recipe for the manager getting fired. Were this a fluke, a one-off, then fine, take the point, grumble, and move on. But it's hard to call it a fluke when we've suffered through this movie for a full calendar year. This was what doomed the aforementioned 2011-12 campaign, and we at least had the consolation of cup runs then. Now, we're in season two of this nonsense.

If Liverpool continue to play like that, there's a reasonable chance things will improve. Sakho – the terrifying moment aside – and Moreno improved the side, Sturridge's return will make a world of difference, Firmino and Ings both had encouraging cameos when played in central positions. Ings' workrate terrorized Norwich's defense; Sturridge is going to adore playing with him. But it's hard to look ahead with any optimism when the past has been so dire and the present remains dire.

Liverpool need improvement now. Rodgers needs improvement now. Neither have the time to slowly improve, especially not with the already furious, divided fan base. The situation's quickly becoming untenable, if it's not already.

This four-match home run was supposed to be the fresh start everyone needed. And Liverpool's already fallen at the first hurdle.

19 September 2015

Liverpool v Norwich 09.20.15

11am ET, live in the US on USA Network

Last four head-to-head:
3-2 Liverpool (a) 04.20.14
5-1 Liverpool (h) 12.04.13
5-0 Liverpool (h) 01.19.13
5-2 Liverpool (a) 09.29.12

Last matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Bordeaux (a); 1-3 United (a); 0-3 West Ham (h)
Norwich: 3-1 Bournemouth (h); 0-3 Southampton (a); 2-1 Rotherham (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 2; Coutinho 1
Norwich: Martin, Redmond 2; Hoolahan, Jarvis, Jerome, Whitaker 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Milner Can
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Benteke

This match marks a new beginning, the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end.

Liverpool's next four matches are at home. Liverpool's next four matches are against Norwich, Carlisle, Aston Villa, and FC Sion. We're all aware that Liverpool have the potential to lose any match against any opponent on any day, and usually in the most comical fashion possible, but those are four winnable matches, especially considering what Liverpool's fixture list has looked like so far.

Jordan Henderson will be out for a couple of months after breaking a metatarsal in training yesterday – and I doubt I need emphasize how much of a loss that'll be – but Daniel Sturridge is back in training and Joe Allen is almost as close to returning. Given all that's come before, there's no way Sturridge will start his first match back, but he'll be on the bench, and I'll be surprised if he doesn't make an appearance.

But even more important than returning players is Liverpool learning their lessons from recent disappointments, especially the 0-3 loss to West Ham. Sakho and Moreno have to start after their performances against Bordeaux. As per usual, the less said about Lovren, the better. Joe Gomez – the only outfield player to start in all six of Liverpool's matches – has played above expectations, but that loss to West Ham demonstrated his weaknesses when Liverpool dominate possession; Moreno is much more capable of adding width in the opposition half, something Liverpool will almost certainly need tomorrow.

And, to the surprise of no one, Liverpool need more bodies in attack, more support for their striker(s). 4-2-3-1 has rarely worked under Rodgers, but you'd have to think that a line of Lallana-Firmino-Coutinho will provide Benteke with more help than we've seen from the 4-3-3, with the adding bonus of getting Firmino into a central role.

Maybe Liverpool stick with the 3-4-2-1 we saw at Bordeaux, with Benteke, Milner, Skrtel, and Clyne replacing Origi, Rossiter, Toure, and Ibe. Maybe it becomes a 3-5-2. Maybe Liverpool persist with the 4-3-3, dropping Coutinho in midfield with Lallana and Firmino on the "flanks." Maybe Liverpool persist with the same 4-3-3 seen at United, seen for the majority of matches in this short season. But I truly think that 4-2-3-1 provides Liverpool with its best chance for success against tomorrow's opposition. It can't get worse, can it?

After five matches, Norwich are level on points with Liverpool: two wins, one draw, and two losses. But where Liverpool have scored just three goals, Norwich have eight, including 3-1 wins over both Bournemouth (a team that Liverpool scored a single offside goal against) and Sunderland. However, they've yet to keep a clean sheet this season, conceding once in four games (including the League Cup), and three goals in two others. Of course, it'd be eminently fitting if that first clean sheet came at Anfield.

Norwich will play 4-2-3-1, often shifting into a 4-4-1-1 tomorrow, an XI of Ruddy; Whittaker, Martin, Bassong, Brady; Tettey, Howson; Redmond, Hoolahan, Jarvis; Jerome. Nathan Redmond, still only 21, is Norwich's most dangerous player, with two goals and an assist so far this season, both providing width and cutting in down the right, a constant danger on the counter-attack. Hoolahan's also flourished in a free role behind the main striker, back in favor since Alex Neil became manager in January.

As I'm sure you'll remember, Norwich have been Liverpool's favorite opponent over the last few seasons, scoring at least three goals in each of the last five meetings. As I'm sure you'll remember, that had a lot to do with Luis Suarez; it just won't feel right facing the Canaries without the Uruguayan in the lineup.

It's a scary, brave new world. And Liverpool assuredly have to be brave tomorrow.

21 April 2014

Visualized: Liverpool 3-2 Norwich

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h), Sunderland (h), Cardiff (a), Manchester United (a), Southampton (a), Swansea (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), West Brom (a), Everton (h), Aston Villa (h), Stoke (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Manchester City (a), Cardiff (h), Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


Yesterday's first and second goals were Liverpool's 57th and 58th first half goals this season, which accounts for 60% of Liverpool's league goals this season.



That's an amazing amount.

Compare that to 2012-13 or 2011-12, where Liverpool scored 42.9% and 40.5% of the goals in the first half (all competitions). Or 2008-09, where 64 of Liverpool's 106 goals (again, all competitions) came in the second half, including 36 after the 75th minute. So many late comebacks that season.

This is both a good thing and a bad thing. It's a good thing when you blow teams out of the water before they even settle: Arsenal (h), Everton (h), Tottenham (home and away), etc. But it can be a bad thing when Liverpool sits on said lead, inviting teams onto a defense too often prone to mistakes: Stoke (a), Swansea (h), and Norwich yesterday, as well as a fair few more. It'd be a different story if Liverpool could hold onto a lead, could strange the life out of a match when two goals up. But, despite the unbelievable league position, this is still very much a team in progress. And yet, Liverpool somehow keep winning.

It's also easier to get back into a game when you've nothing to lose, as Sunderland demonstrated against both City and Chelsea this week. That's not to take anything away from Neil Adams and Norwich; the tactical changes at halftime most definitely improved the home side, and they were able to take advantages of the weaknesses in Liverpool's system and personnel.

Matching Liverpool's christmas tree with a diamond meant Liverpool's five central midfielders were able to cancel out Norwich's strength in the middle. Liverpool's threat on the counter-attack through Suarez, Sterling, and Coutinho – even with Sturridge absent – helped to restrain Norwich's fullbacks, which is where the width almost always comes from in a 4-4-2 diamond.

But when Norwich switched to a 4-3-3, getting Redmond and Snodgrass into wider positions, pinning Liverpool's fullbacks back and forcing Lucas and Allen to do more defensive work wide, Norwich were the better side. Just as an example, Joe Allen led Liverpool with 10 tackles, but seven of those ten came in the first half. And it's no coincidence that both of Norwich's goals, as well as van Wolfswinkel's chance to equalize in the 83rd minute, came from crosses.

From 34.1% possession in the first half to 50.9% possession in the second. The passing chalkboards are even more emphatic, both for Norwich and for Liverpool.






Norwich using more of the pitch in the second half, getting the ball out wide in the final third. Liverpool much more reliant on long balls, and unable to pass across the back to take the sting out of the match.

Norwich did a much better job pressing Liverpool's defenders in the second half, ensuring they couldn't rest on the ball and hold possession as they did in the opening 45 minutes, pressing more effectively with three front players spread across the width of the pitch than with the two out-and-out strikers in the first half. Eight of Norwich's 22 successful tackles and eight of the 17 interceptions came in Liverpool's half. Seven of those eight tackles and four of those eight interceptions came in the second half.

But Liverpool still found a way to win, have found a way to win for the last 11 matches, with six of those wins by a solitary goal (including four of the last five). Liverpool's mentality, Liverpool's resiliency, has been the most amazing facet of this amazing run-in, keeping their just enough of their nerve to do what's required, no matter the set-backs endured in the previous four seasons.

Long may it continue. At least for the next three matches.

20 April 2014

Liverpool 3-2 Norwich

Goals:
Sterling 4' 62'
Suarez 11'
Hooper 54'
Snodgrass 77'

"You didn't think it was gonna be that easy, did you?" "For a second there, yeah I kinda did…"

Again.

When Gerrard shouted, "We go to Norwich. Exactly the same. We go again.” in the aftermath of last week's victory, I don't think this is what he meant.

With two Liverpool goals within 11 minutes, you figured it'd be another crushing victory at Carrow Road. The absence of both Sturridge and Henderson seemed irrelevant. Lucas and Allen come in, Rodgers changes the formation to a 4-3-2-1 christmas tree – the eighth different formation we've seen this season – and Sterling runs riot, an atomic bomb from distance to open the scoring, then a perfect assist after a long passing move so Suarez can continue his Canary killing streak.

But rather than keeping the boot on Norwich's neck, Liverpool began to play passively, happy to soak up pressure, look to counter, and if it wasn't on, keep possession in its own half.

On the whole, it worked well enough for 45 minutes. Liverpool did well to limit Norwich's chances, led by Joe Allen, who made seven tackles and won 11 of 12 ground duels in the first half. Allen's two crucial blocks following a Norwich set play, Mignolet parrying Redmond's shot from distance, and Redmond's shot-slash-cross wide were Norwich's only chances of the half. Unfortunately, no matter how well Sterling played – and it was quite well – Liverpool's counter-attack isn't the same without Daniel Sturridge. Liverpool's only two threatening moments after the opening goals were Allen's shot from distance in the 26th minute and Coutinho's curler just before halftime, both narrowly wide of the far post.

The match would have been very different had Robert Snodgrass been sent off for an incredibly frustrated tackle on Allen in the 29th minute, both very late and high. But Snodgrass wasn't sent off, Marriner most likely taking pity on a two-goals-down, relegation-battling Norwich at home. And then that second half happened.

Liverpool began the same way after the restart, but were facing a very different Norwich. Neil Adams shifted the system, changing to more of a 4-2-3-1 with Redmond and Snodgrass playing wider and getting at Liverpool's fullbacks, getting crosses into the box. And those crosses troubled Liverpool, those crosses led to both of Norwich's goals.

The first was eminently regrettable. The first simply should not have happened. Skrtel had been imperious all match long, but when Whittaker crossed from deep following a throw-in, Mignolet rushed out of his goal to try to punch rather than leaving it for the Slovakian. Heeding the keeper's call, Skrtel didn't contest Bradley Johnson's header, but also couldn't get out of the way, meaning Mignolet made weak contact with the ball, pushing it directly into an unmarked Hooper's path.

The second was almost as bad. Another cross from a Norwich fullback – this time Olsson, this time the opposite flank – Flanagan wholly out-muscled and out-jumped by Snodgrass, a free header that Mignolet had no chance of keeping out. Such are the perils of a formation that concedes the flanks, especially with neither Liverpool fullback covering himself in glory in the second half.

Sandwiched between Norwich's strikes was a goal that should have sealed the game. Finally, a counter-attack coming to fruition, even if fortunately: Sterling intercepting Johnson's hospital ball across the pitch and tearing at three Norwich defenders along with Suarez. Suarez was the decoy as Sterling kept running, cutting inside, seemingly overplaying but a fortunate deflection off Johnson looped his shot over Ruddy. It's better to be lucky and good, etc.

Liverpool had had a few chances on the break following Hooper's strike, but Suarez's first was hit tamely at Ruddy, his second drifted just. Both were chances you'd expect him to seize, especially against his favorite opposition. But it was Raheem Sterling who got the break and made the break-through.

Once again, you'd expect Liverpool to keep the boot on Norwich's neck after scoring the third. But it was Stoke, Sunderland, Cardiff, City all over again, with Liverpool hanging on by fingernails and heart attacks for everyone. Agger's introduction for Allen in the 81st minute, switching to something of a 5-2-3, helped matters, but Norwich could and should have equalized in the 83rd: another deep cross, this time from Redmond, but van Wolfswinkel's header after eluding Sakho was straight at Mignolet. Liverpool were very lucky that chance fell to a player who hadn't scored since opening day, who has just nine shots on target all season.

Thankfully, that was Norwich's last terrifying chance despite continued possession, and Liverpool could and should have made in 4-2 in injury time. First, Suarez volleyed high and wide, but in the the 93rd minute, a Liverpool break and typical tricky feet from Suarez led to two Lucas (!!!) chances from eight yards out. Ruddy saved the first, Olsson blocked the second. It had to be Lucas. Sigh.

No matter. Liverpool held on. They've had so many chances to shit the bed in the final 10-15 minutes during this 11-match winning streak: at Cardiff, Sunderland, and West Ham; against Fulham, Swansea, and City. But they haven't. They've somehow held their nerve, somehow held on for the win, winning six of these 11 matches by a single goal.

Despite the blitzkrieg start, today's match obviously left a lot to be desired. Sterling, Skrtel, Allen (especially in the first half), and Gerrard were excellent, but Liverpool's fullbacks disappointed and Liverpool's defense still looks rickety at times. As much as I love Lucas, that wasn't his position, and I'm not sure he has a position with the way Liverpool (and Gerrard) have been playing. Rodgers' alterations with both Sturridge and Henderson absent started well, but couldn't and didn't last, and Liverpool weaknesses in depth were exemplified by Moses's introduction, first off the bench but adding next to nothing.

But none of that matters. It's three more points, it's an 11th straight win. Liverpool have now qualified for the Champions League group stage; they cannot finish worse than third. More importantly, Liverpool lead the league by five points with three matches left.

This is gone. We go against Chelsea. Maybe not exactly the same, but we go again.

Three more games for greatness.

19 April 2014

Liverpool at Norwich 04.20.14

7am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
5-1 Liverpool (h) 12.04.13
5-0 Liverpool (h) 01.19.13
5-2 Liverpool (a) 09.29.12
3-0 Liverpool (a) 04.28.12

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-2 City (h); 2-1 West Ham (a); 4-0 Tottenham (h)
Norwich: 0-1 Fulham (a); 0-1 West Brom (h); 0-3 Swansea (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 29; Sturridge 20; Gerrard 13; Skrtel, Sterling 7; Coutinho 5; Henderson 4; Agger, Flanagan, Moses, Sakho 1
Norwich: Hooper, Snodgrass 5; Fer, Johnson 3; Howson 2; R Bennett, Elmander, Hoolahan, Pilkington, Redmond, Tettey, Whittaker, van Wolfswinkel 1

Referee: Andre Marriner

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Flanagan
Gerrard
Lucas Allen
Sterling Suarez Coutinho

Will Sturridge be available and who replaces the suspended Henderson?

How Liverpool cope with Henderson's absence partly depends on Sturridge. If he's fit, it's a simple question: either Lucas or Allen replace Henderson in something of a straight swap. And I strongly suspect it'd be Allen.

“It’s vital you have players who can come in and do a fantastic job. We’re fortunate to have both Lucas Leiva and Joe Allen. They have both shown their qualities, particularly Joe in recent weeks. When he’s had the chance to play, he has been exceptional. I said when he first came to the club that Joe is an outstanding player. As time goes on and he starts to show that, what the club paid for Joe will be a bargain. You look at other midfielders with his qualities, they are going to big clubs for £40million. Joe is perfectly suited to this way of working. I have no doubt that in years to come he will be deemed a snip at £15million.”

- Brendan Rodgers


Neither Allen nor Lucas can replicate Henderson's pressing or overall work rate, but Allen's better able to make Henderson's attacking runs forward and link play in attack, and that'll be more important against Norwich than Lucas' patience passing and defensive capabilities.

But Sturridge's absence would render that debate moot; both will probably start if he's unavailable.

There's no like-for-like replacement for Daniel Sturridge. Aspas is the closest, but he's had next to no impact on the season since the first few matches. So you seemingly change the system, going back to what worked when Sturridge was absent in December, including in the 5-1 win against tomorrow's opponents. Sterling and Coutinho flanking Suarez, three midfielders behind, with at least one if not two of those midfielders joining the attack early and often.

Liverpool could also retain the diamond formation with Sturridge missing; Raheem Sterling seems more than capable of playing up front with Suarez, his pace suited to taking him behind Norwich's defenders, his runs pulling those defenders out of position to create space for Suarez. Coutinho at the apex of the diamond – chances are, he'll cut inside often in the 4-3-3 anyway – with Allen and Lucas the wide midfielders, and Gerrard at the base.

There is one other option: using Coutinho rather than Lucas in midfield if Liverpool play 4-3-3, and starting Moses in the front three. It's what The Guardian guessed in its match preview. But it's also frighteningly similar to the lineup Liverpool used in the 1-3 loss at Hull. So yeah, maybe not.

Regardless of formation, Luis Suarez will be crucial, the butcher of East Anglia in his last four matches against Norwich. 11 goals in those four matches; two hat-tricks in the two matches he's played at Carrow Road. That Suarez could keep up this one-man crusade against the Canaries seems unlikely, if not impossible. His shooting accuracy in those four matches was 64%. Six of those 11 goals came outside the box, including three unfathomably spectacular strikes. One of those days he'll regress to the mean. He has to. But I hope it won't be tomorrow.

Norwich are not in a good place right now. They've lost their last three, lost seven of the 11 since February 1. From 12th place on January 31 to 17th today, outside of the relegation zone by just two points, and with their last four games against Liverpool, United, Chelsea, and Arsenal.

Last Saturday was supposed to be the bulwark. Last Saturday was the reason Norwich fired Hughton, hoping to catalyze the side going into the six-pointer against woeful Fulham. It did not work as expected, losing 0-1, to give Fulham a slight ray of hope, and to drag Norwich further down into the morass.

Norwich played something of a diamond formation in that loss to Fulham, with Redmond and van Wolfswinkel as the strikers. It did not work especially well, as Norwich continued to Norwich despite the change in formation and manager. The away side started the better side and had some golden chances, but were denied by a combination of poor finishing, bad luck, and excellent goalkeeping. That inability to score has been the story of the season. No side has fewer league goals than Norwich; Suarez has three more than Norwich by himself. Then they conceded against the run of play late in the first half, and subsequently never looked as threatening as they did before Fulham struck.

So I've little idea how Norwich will line up tomorrow. I suspect it'll be similar to last Saturday, with Ruddy; Whittaker, Martin, Bassong, Olsson; Johnson, Howson; Snodgrass, Fer, Redmond; Van Wolfswinkel, in either the 4-4-2 diamond or the more familiar 4-3-2-1 that Hughton usually used. But maybe Hooper or Elmander or both start instead, in the hopes of finding goals from somewhere. Maybe Hoolahan or Murphy start in midfield, in the hopes of adding more creativity. Adams has next to no track record, and it's not as if any of Norwich's players (especially in the front six) have nailed down a starting spot.

As against Sunderland, it's the archetypal trap game. Liverpool on a ten-match win streak away to a truly struggling side. Liverpool, missing two key players. Norwich, fighting for Premiership survival. It'd be too easy to look past tomorrow's match, to next week's supposedly season-deciding fixture against Chelsea. Thankfully, this is a side that rarely looked like falling into those traps.

And it's a side that still has Luis Suarez, the killer of Canaries and curse of Carrow Road.

So we go again.

05 December 2013

Visualized: Liverpool 5-1 Norwich

Previous Match Infographics: Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


Here's the formation diagram usually included in the match review, as I didn't do a match review last night. Sorry about that.

Anyway.

Sometimes you just can't legislate for genius. Luis Suarez was the alpha and omega – and every other letter in every other alphabet – of that match.

And without Suarez – more specifically, without Suarez in that form – that's most likely a very, very different match.

Until his first moment of breathtaking, jaw dropping brilliance, Norwich's plan worked surprisingly, depressingly well. For 15 minutes, Liverpool looked disjointed, while Norwich started dangerously, wasting a couple of half chances made from Liverpool's mistakes, with Hull seemingly still fresh in the memories. Just as importantly, the away side were getting bodies behind the ball, blocking Liverpool's first four shots before Henderson tentatively put two decent chances well off-target.

But then Luis Suarez happened. And happened again. And again. And again. And again, but that time as creator rather than finisher.

So, as strange as it sounds, let's remove Suarez from the equation. Liverpool still dominate possession and still take 21 shots, but only six of those 21 were on-target; seven were off-target, and eight were blocked. And four of those 21 shots were set up by Suarez, including Liverpool's final goal. Liverpool's first non-Suarez shot on target wasn't until the 38th minute, Gerrard's easily held effort from around 30 yards out. Liverpool's first clear chance not involving Suarez wasn't until the 52nd minute, Gerrard's diving header parried by Ruddy. Of Liverpool's three best non-Suarez chances, two were brilliantly saved by Ruddy, from Allen and Gerrard, and then Gerrard hit the woodwork with two minutes left in regulation.

If Suarez has an off-day, like against Hull, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Liverpool loses 0-1 thanks to Bradley Johnson's late goal, another Liverpool defensive breakdown, this time as Liverpool let Hull pass across midfield before failing to block Redmond's cross before Johnson beat Agger to the header far too easily. That result would have looked and felt an awful like the Liverpool of 2011-12 or a handful of matches in the first half of last season: well on top in passing, possession, tenor, and tempo, but unable to find the needed goal(s) thanks to opposition keeper excellence and the woodwork. And that's fairly worrisome following Sunday's performance and result.

But yes, there's an awful lot of "if my aunt had testicles, she'd be my uncle" in that line of reasoning. Liverpool did have Luis Suarez yesterday. And Luis Suarez sure was amazing. He won't convert four of seven shots in many matches, but he is converting 25% of all shots this season (13 goals from 52 shots), an absolutely unfathomable rate, light years away from 12.3% last season or 8.6% in 2011-12.

Six of his 11 goals against Norwich have come from outside the box. He's only scored seven other goals from outside the box – so 13 of his 64 in total for Liverpool – direct free kicks against City, Udinese, Zenit (twice), Wigan, and Everton as well as a open play goal against Stoke. Suarez is the first Premier League player to score three hat-tricks against the same club, and the third Liverpool player to score four goals in a Premier League match (Fowler did it twice, Owen once). I swear, he's got Saxon blood somewhere in his family tree, because no one's pillaged East Anglian opposition like this in about 1500 years.

But, despite that genius that I'm really running out of superlatives to describe, it's not as if it was all Suarez and 10 others brought in from the stands. Coutinho made a massive difference, everywhere in Norwich's half and Liverpool's top chance creator, although none of his five shots found the target (two off-target, three blocked). He's getting better and better with each passing minute following his too-long injury absences. Glen Johnson was also vastly improved, much more involved, especially when going forward, than he was on Sunday, creating the same number of chances as Coutinho.

Gerrard and Allen also looked a good pairing in midfield, even though I'm tempted to hold Norwich being allowed to pass across Liverpool's midfield prior to the lone goal against them. Aside from the consolation and those aforementioned early half-chances, Norwich offered little in attack, but Gerrard felt comfortable enough with Allen holding, knew when and where Allen would cover, to get forward more than in any other match this season. He did deserve a goal for his efforts, and that lovely improvised flick off the woodwork would have been a fitting one. And at the same time, each central midfielder made six tackles, a reassuring amount with Lucas left on the bench. As important as I think Lucas is when he's at his best, this partnership looked promising enough to think that dropping the Brazilian is a viable option in certain matches, especially at Anfield when Liverpool expects to monopolize the run of play.

03 December 2013

Liverpool v Norwich 12.04.13

2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra

Last four head-to-head:
5-0 Liverpool (h) 01.19.14
5-2 Liverpool (a) 09.29.12
3-0 Liverpool (a) 04.28.12
1-1 (h) 10.22.11

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Hull (a); 3-3 Everton (a); 4-0 Fulham (h)
Norwich: 1-0 Palace (h); 1-2 Newcastle (a); 3-1 West Ham (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sturridge, Suarez 9; Gerrard 3; Coutinho, Moses, Skrtel 1
Norwich: Fer, Hooper, Howson 2; Pilkington, Redmond, Snodgrass, Whittaker, van Wolfswinkel 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Sakho Agger Cissokho
Henderson Gerrard Lucas Coutinho
Aspas Suarez

Is that terrible taste from Sunday still stuck in your mouth, and you can't get rid of it no matter how many times you gargle? Yeah, me too. And I hope it's still stuck in the Liverpool players' mouths as well.

Norwich are seemingly the best possible opponents to remove that terrible taste. Liverpool have beaten Norwich by a combined 13-2 in the last three meetings and Suarez has especially delighted in sinking his teeth into the Canaries, tallying seven goals – including two hat-tricks at Carrow Road – as well as an assist.

There will clearly be a fair bit of rotation – much needed rotation – from Sunday's line-up, and Rodgers has more than a few choices how to set up his side.

Personally, I'd like to see Aspas – if fit enough to start after being left on the bench at Hull – used as something of a direct replacement for Sturridge. The same 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 formation with Henderson and Coutinho ostensibly on the flanks, Aspas and Suarez buzzing dangerously across the width and breadth of the final third, pulling center backs out of position for each other and the two players cutting in from the flanks. Preseason is often a poor barometer, but Aspas looked more capable as an out-and-out striker than he did playing as a deeper #10 when fit early in the season.

Admittedly, even at best, that doesn't fix Liverpool's midfield or defense, which – discounting the abomination at Hull – have been the bigger issues. This might well be a match to rest Lucas or Gerrard, to see what Liverpool's midfield looks like with one of those players missing, as the longer the season goes on, the less likely it seems they'll eventually began complementing each other's game.

And I'd finally like to see both Sakho and Agger starting, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Lies, damned lies, and statistics, but Liverpool's conceded six goals in the last two matches, and Skrtel's the only center-back who started both. Agger was a part of of one of those, at Everton, but he's also started in all four of Liverpool's clean sheets this season; his other two starts came at Everton and in the narrow 0-1 loss to Southampton. Sakho's done little wrong as well. Norwich will pose threats, to be sure, and this won't be as easy as the last meeting between these two sides at Anfield, but this seems as good a match as any to try a Sakho-Agger pairing. Flanagan may also be rested in order to give Cissokho another chance, ostensibly providing more attacking threat from full-back, but starting Toure at right-back with Johnson on the left also seems an option.

However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something different than the above guess. Whether it's either Moses or Sterling retaining a place on the flank – surely it won't be both – or both Henderson/Allen and Gerrard ahead of Lucas, inverting the midfield triangle at the expense of a #10, or reverting to a back three in an attempt to stop the goals from flying in and feel more comfortable using Sakho and Agger at the same time. It's not as if Rodgers is lacking for options. Even if we're a long way from being convinced by some of those options.

Norwich have rebounded from being hammered by Arsenal, United, and City in the space of two weeks at the end of October/beginning of November, beating Palace and West Ham while narrowly losing at Newcastle over the last month.

Hull gave other sides the template for beating Liverpool, although it's not as if Steve Bruce's side exposed any new deficiencies. Set plays and counter-attacks, set plays and counter-attacks. In Hooper, Redmond, and Hoolahan, Norwich have three dangerous attackers capable of punishing any side on the break. Redmond's pace and talent with the ball at his feet frightens the most. Thankfully, their supremely talented set-play taker, Robert Snodgrass, will miss out through injury, but Liverpool have managed to concede set-play goals to far less talented takers and teams.

With Pilkington, Tettey, and van Wolfswinkel also absent through injury, Norwich's most likely XI is the same which beat Palace on Saturday: Ruddy; Martin, Bennett, Bassong, Olsson; Howson, Fer; Hoolalan, Elmander, Redmond; Hooper. Bradley Johnson may come in for Elmander, shifting Fer further forward for more heft in midfield, but that seems the only probable change.

Three of Norwich's four wins have been narrow 1-0 victories, and they've also drawn more than half of the fixtures played so far this season. That feeds into the aforementioned template for nullifying Liverpool. Keep it tight, prevent an early goal, frustrate the home side, and hope to nick one against the run of play. Take a first half lead, as Hull did, as Newcastle did, as Swansea did, and you're almost assured of at least of point.

Liverpool, with Sunday still fresh in the memory, need to remind they can comprehensively beat these sides as they did so thoroughly last season, need to demonstrate that improving resilience Rodgers has often mentioned, and need to prove that Sunday truly was a fluke occurrence.

---
As has become depressingly usual, I won't be able to see this game live. Well, maybe live if I can sneak watching it on my phone, but not live enough for the usual match review. I might be tempted into writing a review late Wednesday night, but chances are that I'll combine the match review and match infographic into one big Thursday post.

21 January 2013

Visualized: Liverpool 5-0 Norwich

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a), QPR (a), Sunderland (h), Manchester United (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.



It was the first time since the reverse fixture that Liverpool have scored twice from shots outside the box. These two matches against Norwich are the only two matches where Liverpool have scored multiple goals from outside the box. But then just seven of Liverpool's goals this season have come from outside the box: Suarez's free kick against Manchester City, Johnson's volley at West Ham, and five against Norwich. 189 shots, seven goals. Five of the seven against the same side.

Gerrard's 107 completed passes of 115 attempted were the most for a Liverpool player this season; he and Joe Allen (at Sunderland) are the only two to top 100 in a match this season. Most importantly, 31 of those completed passes (37 attempted) came in the attacking third, 11 more than the next Liverpool player. Liverpool were outstanding in the final third, completing 166 of 200 passes (83%). That's the highest attacking third accuracy of the season and higher than total pass accuracy against Everton, Reading, Stoke (h), and City. Liverpool's average pass accuracy this season is 85.5%; the average attacking third pass accuracy prior to Saturday's match was 73.7%.1

Gerrard remains the only Liverpool player to feature in every league match, and he's both started and played for 90 minutes in all 23 of them. Had you told me that before the season, I would have had you declared insane. He's played more league minutes this season than total minutes last season, has already surpassed his appearance total for both 2010-11 and 2011-12. Saturday's goal means he's now just six away from 100 in the Premiership; Fowler and Owen are the only other Liverpool players to reach that total. I don't know what they're feeding him at Melwood these days, but make sure he keeps eating it.

While we're on the topic of rejuvenation, Carragher's 73 completed passes are the most for a Liverpool defender this season, one more than Agger completed at Sunderland. Just for comparison, here's his passing chalkboard compared to Skrtel's in the reverse fixture. Look, we all know Carragher's limitations. But in matches like these, where he's not tested often, where he's not up against a speedy striker, he's still a valuable, experienced organizer. Yes, that limits his options. Yes, Liverpool might be better served in the long-term by using Coates more often. But it's not hard to see why Rodgers loves Carragher so much. In playing far fewer matches, he has been vastly improved compared to 2010-11 or 2011-12.

Brad Jones didn't quite reach the 20 passes mark that has become the Reina Passing Theory™, but 17 is the most passes Jones has completed in his five starts, while 81% is his highest pass accuracy. In addition, 15 of his 21 total passes – 71% – were short passes. As the outstanding Bass Tuned to Red noted after Jones' last league start against Chelsea, 69% of Jones' passes this season had been long passes. Compare Saturday's total to Mark Bunn's passing. All 20 of his attempts went long. Just two found a Norwich player.

Meanwhile, Bradley Johnson had one of the worst midfield performances I've seen since doing these match infographics. 51 attempted passes dwarfed any other Norwich player, but he completed just 56.9% of them. He took no shots. Created no chances. Made three interceptions, but no tackles. No tackles, but one foul committed. Yikes. Just yikes.

Of course, Norwich created just one chance in the entire match, put just one shot on target (of four in total) – both on the early Snodgrass to Bennett set play. That was a low for both shots and chances created for a Liverpool opponent this season, with Sunderland (away) and Southampton also tallying just one shot on target against Liverpool.


1) Didn't think it merited inclusion in the body text, but worth noting that the only match where Liverpool completed or attempted more attacking third passes was in the 1-3 loss to Aston Villa, with 202 completed of 252 attempted. That was the only other match where Liverpool completed more than 145 attacking third passes. The more I do these comparison infographics, the more I'm forced to relive the Villa result, the more that match seems a complete and utter aberration. Not that it's much of a consolation.

19 January 2013

Liverpool 5-0 Norwich

Goals:
Henderson 26'
Suarez 36'
Sturridge 59'
Gerrard 66'
R Bennett OG 74'

Every match against Norwich gets better.

We'll just forget the first, wholly undeserved draw at Anfield last season. Then came the 3-0, all Suarez all the time. This season's first saw the 5-2 at Carrow, where Liverpool similarly dominated in attack, more of a team performance again led by a Suarez hat-trick, but also sloppily conceding twice.

This was the culmination of the previous two performances. Another five goals, but with everyone contributing in attack, each goal scored and set up by a different player and a wonderful team-wide performance. Another clean sheet, with just two Norwich chances of note. Liverpool's biggest home win of the season – where they had taken just 18 of an available 39 points – and Liverpool's biggest win since beating Birmingham 5-0 in April 2011.

Tony Barrett summed it up nicely.

Granted, Liverpool were five up by that point, but this was pretty much done as a contest when Liverpool's second went in. As it should be.

Unlike in the last meeting, it took a marginal amount of time for Liverpool to assert its dominance. They monopolized possession as per usual, but struggled to find a way through Norwich's packed defense. It was still a 4-2-3-1 formation, but with elements of the 4-2-2-2 used by Dalglish in the 2010-11: Suarez lurking dangerous behind Sturridge, popping up all over the pitch, while Henderson was ostensibly on the left but came infield early and often.

Those first 26 minutes saw one of Norwich's few chances: actually the first shot on target registered by either side. Unsurprisingly, it came from a set play, which was where Norwich's danger was always coming from. Snodgrass' deep free kick found Ryan Bennett unmarked between Agger and Wisdom, but his free header went softly straight at Jones. It'd be the last chance Norwich had all half.

You won't be able to tell it from the stat sheet, but Liverpool's opener had an awful lot to do with Luis Suarez. I know, surprising. I'll give you a moment to regain your composure.



Seven of Norwich's nine defenders are focused on Suarez. And rightfully so, I guess, given how he's singlehandedly destroyed them in the last two fixtures. Elliott Bennett finally makes the tackle to dispossess, but it falls kindly for Henderson, who curls an utter beauty past Bunn into the far corner from the penalty arc. Suarez causes the havoc, but let's not downplay the strike. It's just his second of the season, first in the league, fourth in his Liverpool career, and Liverpool are yet to lose a match when he scores.

Ten minutes later, after near constant possession, that man added the crucial second. Again, there's more than enough credit to go around. Liverpool sprung quickly from its own half after a Johnson interception, Lucas played a long throughball aimed for Sturridge but cleverly dummied, freeing Suarez to run on goal and beating Bunn with a left-footed shot just inside the far corner. Incidentally, that was Liverpool's only goal not scored and assisted by an English player.

Norwich's second close call came soon after the restart. Carragher cleared Snodgrass' cross, but straight to Tettey, whose first-time shot was wildly wide, but with Holt in an almost perfect position to redirect into Liverpool's net. He missed. Missed everything, not just the target. Two chances, both untaken. Liverpool still would have won given the form they were in, but like against Sunderland, Liverpool stroll when the opposition miss chances. And, of course, when Liverpool are capable enough to take their own.

The game-killing third came less than ten minutes later, after close calls set up by Johnson and Suarez. With Liverpool camped just outside Norwich's penalty box, Henderson shifted play with a cross-field ball to an open Downing, whose first-time volleyed cross gave Sturridge a tap-in. Those are the sort of blue moon moments where you realize Downing is actually a professional footballer; it really couldn't have been a better hit pass. And it was Sturridge's third in as many Liverpool games, in just 158 minutes, the first Liverpool player to score in his first three games since the legendary Ray Kennedy in 1974-75.

Liverpool weren't satisfied with three, as Gerrard scored his 94th Premier League goal in the 66th, bombing a shot from 25 yards out after Johnson's burst down the left. It's the first time Liverpool have scored with two shots from outside the box since Liverpool last faced Norwich. I really love you, Norwich. You had better stay up.

That marked the beginning of the end, with Rodgers almost immediately bringing on Sterling and Borini for Lucas and Sturridge, the former playing on the left with Henderson dropping into midfield, the latter in a straight swap with Liverpool's newest acquisition. Because it was one of those days where everything simply went according to plan, Liverpool's substitutes paid dividends soon after, again down Liverpool's left, as Johnson flicked on Gerrard's long pass, Sterling easily out-muscled Michael Turner (really) and raced on goal, his shot-cum-center deflected into Norwich's net by Ryan Bennett.

Liverpool mercifully shut down after the fifth, still pressing to ensure they kept possession, but content to play short passes around midfield as Norwich feverishly tapped out, hoping the referee would stop the match.

As against Sunderland, as against Fulham, as against QPR, we'll hear a lot of "well, Norwich really weren't very good." And while there's something in that, especially given the side's results since mid-December, Liverpool did an awful lot to make them look not very good, even more than in those last three comprehensive wins.

As in the second half against United, Suarez was an almost orthodox #10, if unsurprisingly mobile, popping up all over Norwich's half. He continued to link marvelously with Sturridge, highlighted by the second goal, with Sturridge already aware of the exact run Suarez would make with barely a look up. Johnson was pure magic on the left flank, helped by Norwich's lack of attack with both Hoolahan and Pilkington oddly left out, allowing Henderson to play (and play well) as both an inside left and central midfielder. Gerrard could and did bomb forward at will with Lucas back to his security blanket best, with three tackles and four interceptions, averaging nearly a pass a minute as he completed 63 in 69 minutes. Liverpool's two defensive changes – Carragher for Skrtel and Jones for Reina – led to no drop off; Carragher actually seemed to enjoy wrestling with Holt where similar strikers like Benteke, Carlton Cole, and Jon Walters caused Liverpool problems, while Jones made the one needed save and completed more passes than in his previous four starts (if not the 20 Reina evidently needs for Liverpool to win).

Norwich has become the exact opposite of the fabled "bogey side", with Liverpool in top form in each of the last three wins. That it's another win over a bottom-half side means we probably shouldn't get too excited; Liverpool hasn't had many problems beating teams below it. But it's hard not to be optimistic after a performance like that, after the way Sturridge and Suarez linked up in the new formation, after the way Henderson both scored and pressed from the front, after another superlative Gerrard passing performance, after seeing Lucas back to his best and another terrific match from Johnson, after Liverpool's defense was almost totally untroubled.

Progress keeps being made, at least for the time being. Again, that's all we can ask for at this point.

18 January 2013

Liverpool v Norwich 01.19.13

10am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
5-2 Liverpool (a) 09.29.12
3-0 Liverpool (a) 04.28.12
1-1 (h) 10.22.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.03.05

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 United (a); 2-1 Mansfield (a); 3-0 Sunderland (h)
Norwich: 0-0 Newcastle (h); 3-0 Peterborough (a); 1-2 West Ham (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 15; Gerrard 4; Agger, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Cole, Downing, Enrique, Johnson, Şahin, Sturridge 1
Norwich: Holt, Pilkington, Snodgrass 4; Bassong, R Martin 3; Hoolahan, Jackson, Johnson, Morison, Turner, Whittaker 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Downing
Gerrard Lucas
Henderson
Sturridge Suarez Borini

Can we just put Suarez down for a hat-trick now? No? Please? You're no fun.

That is, if the match actually occurs. It's snowing in Liverpool. I will try not to be patronizing, despite being raised in the snowiest city in the United States, as I know from experience that a couple of inches will almost completely shut down England. The Liverpool Echo has a live blog going, with pictures as the millimeters rack up, in case you want to keep updated. As of now, there has been no announcement as to the status of tomorrow's game, but I'm pessimistic. Because I'm always pessimistic.

If the match does take place, Rodgers will have an almost full contingent of players to choose from. With Sturridge getting another 45 minutes and Borini appearing for 30 minutes against United, both should be able to join Suarez in Liverpool's "first choice" front three. If any of those three are left out for fitness concerns, it'll probably be Borini, but I'm hopeful he'll be available with Sterling on the bench as a "super sub" – which is how I expect Liverpool to play more often than not. I'm obviously still interested to see how Suarez and Sturridge line up; here's Wednesday's post how on the second half against United gave us some clues, but I'm still skeptical that Suarez will play as an orthodox number 10 – which is how he spent the majority of those 45 minutes.

Related to Suarez's potential as a #10 is the perpetual debate over Liverpool's best midfield. What combination of Gerrard, Lucas, Henderson, and Allen works best? Is it contingent on the opposition? Henderson has simply been better than Allen over the last six weeks or so; Liverpool were far better against United after Lucas went off with a midfield containing just Gerrard and Allen. Allen played well as an attacking midfielder against Sunderland at Anfield, he was dreadful in a similar role at Old Trafford. Henderson appears to be out of Rodgers' favor, at least compared to the other three (and formerly Shelvey), but has increasingly improved when used in smaller doses (compared to being a struggling ever-present last season). And I'm admittedly very, very biased in favor of Lucas' inclusion. So the above is my best guess, but consistent with my preferences. Maybe Suarez does play between the lines, behind a front three of Borini, Sterling and Sturridge, supported by Lucas and Gerrard. Or Gerrard and Allen. Or Gerrard and Henderson. Maybe Allen gets another chance at the attacking midfield role since Lucas and Gerrard are seemingly the preferred deep-lying duo. Or Henderson. I've admittedly little idea what Rodgers will choose going forward now that he has a full complement of attackers.

Finally, as I expect Liverpool to be more attacking against a side that Liverpool should expect to take the game to, don't be surprised if Downing drops to left back with Johnson on the right. That's nothing to do with Wisdom's form; Downing offers more going forward than Wisdom, despite the latter's attempts against United. Although it's hard to say Downing "deserves it" after his tepid display against the Mancs.

Norwich lost all four matches during the festive season prior to a third-round FA Cup victory over Peterborough and a scoreless draw against Newcastle. They had been one of the most in-form sides during the fall, unbeaten from October 20 through December 11, taking 22 points from ten league matches. Since then, they've taken one point from five league matches, an even worse run than the start of the season which saw them in 19th before that eight-week streak.

Norwich's away record is a paltry 1W-5D-5L. Only Newcastle, Reading, and QPR have taken fewer points away from home. That said, Villa's away record before facing Liverpool was 1W-2D-5L and we all remember how that turned out (unless your ability to repress memories is better than mine).

Starting keeper John Ruddy is a long-term injury, while Whittaker and Morison are also out. But midfielders Howson and Surman should return to the squad, as will joint-top scorer Grant Holt. With Howson and Holt back, Norwich's likely lineup is Bunn; Martin, Turner, Bassong, Garrido; Howson, Johnson; Snodgrass, Hoolahan, Pilkington; Holt. Tettey could keep his place instead of Howson, Jackson instead of Holt, but the above seems Norwich's strongest line-up. Chris Hughton's side usually plays 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1, but started with a 4-4-2 against Liverpool in the reverse fixture. I doubt he'll make that mistake again. Holt's burliness could cause similar problems as Benteke, Walters, and Carlton Cole, but that attacking line of three is the danger area: Pilkington and Snodgrass routinely chip in with goals – the latter mainly on set plays – while Hoolahan is Norwich's creative hub. His potential for havoc is a main reason why I think Lucas is likely to be included in the XI.

Liverpool have usually (usually, he emphasizes) been better against sides in the bottom half of the table. Liverpool have beaten Norwich by three goals in the last two meetings thanks to consecutive Suarez hat-tricks. All this optimism is making me pessimistic. Of course, if the match actually takes place.