On Lucas Leiva

The inevitable finally happens. After 10 seasons at the club – Liverpool's longest serving player by some distance – Lucas is moving to Lazio for a rumored £5m. It's a day long in coming, a day filled with happy memories, but also a day filled with regret. And sadness.

And with a couple of what-ifs.

What if Lucas Leiva scores on his league debut, coming on as a substitute for Steven Gerrard in a Merseyside Derby at Everton with the score 1-1? A goal-bound shot in added time, saved on the line by Phil Neville's handball. Dirk Kuyt scored the resulting penalty for Liverpool's win, but I still wonder if Lucas' career would've turned out differently had he been the hero.

More meaningfully, what if Lucas doesn't blow out his ACL in a League Cup match against Chelsea in November 2011? He's in the best form of his career after nearly being sold in the summer of 2010 by Roy Hodgson, notably dominant in the previous match, a 1-1 draw against eventual league winners Manchester City. He's the linchpin of Liverpool's midfield under Kenny Dalglish, a side finally returning to form after the Hodgson horrors. And it wasn't a stepped-wrong, would-probably-have-eventually-happened-regardless injury. It came from contact: first, a bad foul from Ramires, then a collision with Mata less than a minute later. In a League Cup match, more than an hour in, with the tie all but won. And Liverpool's medical staff sent him back on to play for three more minutes before he finally came off, unable to get off of Chelsea's pitch under his own weight.

That season, and the season before, Lucas might not have been Liverpool's best player, but there was a case to be made that he was Liverpool's most important. Gerrard had been dealing with injuries, and would do so off and on for all of 2011-12. Lucas' back-ups were Charlie Adam and Jay Spearing. Jordan Henderson, signed that summer, was used as a tucked-in winger as often as an orthodox central midfielder. So, unsurprisingly, Liverpool are notably worse without him, for the rest of the season. Liverpool end the campaign as League Cup winners and FA Cup runners-up, but finish eighth in the league. And Kenny Dalglish gets fired.

And, honestly, Lucas is never the same player again.

Lucas played more than 2800 Premier League minutes in each of the two seasons before that ACL injury, making 32 league starts in both campaigns. He never played more than 2000 league minutes in a season again.

Nevertheless, Lucas ends his Liverpool career with 346 appearances, the 46th-most all-time. He's 6th in Premier League appearances – behind only Carragher, Gerrard, Hyypiä, Reina, and Fowler.

Since World War II, there have been only four non-British or Irish Liverpool players to last at least 10 years with the club. Lucas Leiva is one. The others are Bruce Grobbelaar, Jan Mølby, and Sami Hyypiä. Grobbelaar, Hyypiä, Pepe Reina, and John Arne Riise are the only non-British or non-Irish players with more Liverpool appearances than Lucas Leiva.

Lucas has made the most Premier League appearances of any Brazilian player. Nobby Solano and Antonio Valencia are the only South American players with more than Lucas.

That's some company.

And no one could or would have predicted it ten years ago.



Incidentally, Lucas made his debut in the same match as Sebastian Leto: a 4-0 win over Toulouse in the Champions League qualifying round. Leto started. Lucas came on as a substitute, replacing Momo Sissoko. Leto made just four appearances for Liverpool, none in the league, mainly due to work permit problems. I'm fairly certain most would have expected Leto to do more in a Liverpool shirt than Lucas Leiva would.

Lucas would have to wait three months to make his first Premier League start.



There are some fun names in those two sides. And some very good players. It is safe to say he's seen quite a bit of change over the last 10 seasons.









It has been an eventual 10 seasons. As I suspect you remember.

Lucas has played alongside just shy of 120 different Liverpool players. For five different managers. Five very different managers: Rafa Benitez, Roy Hodgson, Kenny Dalglish, Brendan Rodgers, and Jürgen Klopp.

He came billed as a Bola de Ouro-winning box-to-box midfielder – taking the Brazilian league award a year after Carlos Tevez won it – then grew into an at-times-dominant defensive midfielder after a period of adjustment, and finished his tenure as a reserve splitting time between holding midfielder and center-back.

From young golden hope, to scapegoat, to under-appreciated internet darling, to one of the first names on the teamsheet, to useful squad player, to cagey veteran, to cult hero.

From this:



To this:



Time makes fools of us all.

He remains a still-valuable member of the squad, if only for his presence in the dressing room and institutional memory. Sure, he's still more than capable of putting in good games, even if it's mixed with poor ones and mistakes. One week, he'd stuff Harry Kane in his pocket. The next, he's being beaten all ends up by Jamie Vardy. He'd become serviceable but not great at both defensive midfielder and center-back, and he's probably not good enough to play more than a few games at either position in a side being built to compete for the Premier League title.

But, at this point in his career, it seemed the legacy that mattered more. He was the last player signed by Rafa Benitez still at the club. He made it through both Hicks and Gillett, and Roy Hodgson. He played a fairly substantial role in two of the best Liverpool sides in the last 25 years, and played for the side which tallied Liverpool's lowest points total in a league campaign since the switch to three points for a win (which, coincidentally, was Lucas' ACL injury season). He'd become a Liverpool fixture, wholly understanding both club and city. At the absolute least, I suspect he was crucial in helping Coutinho and Firmino adjust to life at Liverpool. And, I mean, the man did this. "Unluckeeeeeeee" will live long in the memory.

Liverpool's longest serving player is now Liverpool's captain: Jordan Henderson, who joined the club in June 2011. Who has made 107 fewer appearances for Liverpool than Lucas Leiva. Who is still only 27 years old. And who also embarrassed himself in all sorts of ways in that "Unluckeeee" video, but that's not really here nor there.

For better and for worse, one of the youngest sides in the league has gotten even younger.

To be fair, it's time for Lucas to move on. Long past time if you believe some, but the right time in my opinion. That doesn't make it any less sad. But I'm still proud that Lucas Leiva played 10 seasons for Liverpool. I'm still delighted that Liverpool didn't sell him in 2010, or 2014, or 2016. Lucas Leiva still is, and will always be, one of my favorite under-loved Liverpool players from the last 15 years, alongside Agger, alongside Kuyt.

Also, hey, Liverpool, when's the testimonial? You really need to get on that. It's embarrassing that it hasn't already happened.

Obrigado e boa sorte, Lucas.

Steven Gerrard with and without Lucas

Last season seemingly proved that Liverpool are a vastly different, weaker side without Lucas. With Liverpool's captain back to full fitness as well, still the only Liverpool player to feature in every minute of every league match, this season is proving that Steven Gerrard is also a far better player when paired with Lucas.



Since Lucas's return, Gerrard's attacking statistics have improved in almost every category. More shots, more shots on target, slightly more chances created, more passes, and a higher pass accuracy. He's averaging fewer attacking third passes since the Brazilian's return, but completing a higher percentage of them.

At the same time, Lucas' return has freed him from some defensive duty, averaging fewer tackles and interceptions, and without a single defensive error in the last nine matches after making one against Newcastle and one against Swansea.

Incidentally, I'd love to know the methodology for WhoScored and Squawka's player ratings, but both have been almost totally in line – for Gerrard and others – with my initial opinions during the respective matches. And, it goes without saying, both sites (along with FourFourTwo's StatsZone if you have an iPhone or iPad) are incredibly valuable resources.

There is, however, one major caveat. The average current league position of the 13 sides Liverpool faced during Lucas' absence is 9th. The average position of the nine sides Liverpool faced since Lucas' return is 13th. Yes, Liverpool have obviously improved of late, partly due to continued overall progress, Lucas' return, Gerrard's improvement, and the acquisition of Daniel Sturridge, but they've also played "easier" matches since the beginning of December.

Liverpool's matches will get harder, and quickly, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester City in the next two league fixtures. Whether Gerrard can continue his recent form will go a long way in deciding how Liverpool fare in those matches and for the rest of the season.

2011-12 Turning Points

Lucas Injury
• 1.77 points per game before, 1.05 after [-0.62 PPG]
• 1.31 goals per game before, 1.05 after [-0.26 GPG]
• 0.92 goals conceded per game before, 1.11 after [+0.19 GCPG]

Suarez Suspension
• 1.72 points per game before, 1.40 during [-0.32 PPG]
• 1.17 goals per game before, 1.40 during [+0.23 GPG]
• 0.78 goals conceded per game before, 1.40 during [+0.62 GCPG]

Carling Cup Final and Agger Injury
• 1.56 points per game before, 0.50 after [-1.06 PPG]
• 1.16 goals per game before, 1.17 after [+0.01 GPG]
• 0.92 goals conceded per game before, 1.67 after [+0.75 GCPG]

All three are terrifying, but the effects of the Carling Cup final hangover and, more importantly, Agger's injury are by far the scariest. Liverpool have only played six league matches since, but are averaging a point less per game and conceding 0.75 more goals per game. Having Johnson and Kelly absent for most of those certainly hasn't helped, but Agger is the the biggest miss. Skrtel may have been Liverpool's player of the season – at least before this recent stretch – but Daniel Agger is by far Liverpool's most important defender. As Bass Tuned to Red wrote earlier this week, Liverpool have conceded a league goal every 129.7 minutes with Agger on the pitch, and a league goal every 58.9 minutes when he has been absent. Yikes.

Lucas' injury is almost as significant. Liverpool's record in the 13 games prior to his injury: 6W-5D-2L. Liverpool's record in the subsequent 18: 5W-4D-9L. Fewer goals scored per game and more goals conceded, although it's slightly surprising to see a bigger difference in goals scored rather than conceded. But Lucas' as the metronomic base for Liverpool's attacks is just as important, if not more so, than Lucas as the tough tackling defensive midfielder.

Finally, Suarez's suspension. Five matches, from Newcastle at home through Wolves away, returning as a substitute against Tottenham. Liverpool actually scored more goals per game during the matches Suarez missed. Carroll started as a lone striker in three: the two matches where Liverpool scored three – wins against Newcastle and Wolves – as well as the 0-3 loss at City. Carroll and Bellamy partnered in the loss at Bolton, linking up for the lone goal, while Kuyt started up front in the 3-4-2-1 scoreless draw against Stoke. However, Liverpool's goals conceded tally rose dramatically during that span, mostly thanks to conceding three against City and Bolton, both featuring Liverpool's first choice back four of Johnson-Skrtel-Agger-Enrique. It's hard to credit that to Suarez's absence, but I suspect (without proof) that opponents are more hesitant to send multiple attackers forward with the ever-dangerous Uruguayan lurking off the shoulder of the last defender.

Missing key players for long to extra-long stretches isn't a good enough excuse for this season's horrors. Liverpool still scored too few goals, conceded frustratingly in aberrant draws, and found new and inventive ways to drop points before any of these three turning points. However, all three absences, as well as the post-Carling Cup letdown, do help explain the increasingly diminishing returns during this horror campaign.

Why Can't Everything Be Like Last April?

There has been lots of talk around the internet and in the comments of yesterday's match review about this side regressing from last season's run-in. And Dalglish (and Comolli) is obviously at fault and I'm an idiot for holding fire on the manager. Instead of replying under the fold, I figured I'd ramble here on the front page. The short version is that Liverpool weren't as good as you remember last season and aren't are bad as you think now. There. I saved you 1500 words.

But if you're still here...

A five-match stretch from April through early May is used as definitive proof of regression. 3-0 v City, 1-1 at Arsenal, 5-0 v Brum, 3-0 v Newcastle, and 5-2 at Fulham. All very good results. But those results also blind some to the memory of Liverpool losing 1-3 at West Ham, 1-2 at West Brom, 0-2 v Spurs, 0-1 at Aston Villa and insipidly going out of the Europa League, both before and after than five-match stretch.

Regardless, there was some very good football played over that stretch. Some very good football and even better results, which seemingly raised expectations for this season more than a little bit too high. There are also, unsurprisingly, some vast differences between the end of last season and Liverpool's current state.

Goals, goals, goals
Conversion of chances. Pretty much the alpha and omega of Liverpool's problems, as has been written since September. A handful of draws this season (and at least one of the losses) were just about as impressive as last season's large wins in everything but the goals. Liverpool pummeled Sunderland, United, Blackburn, and Stoke, among others, but drew, drew, drew, and lost. Aside from Maxi, who I mentioned in yesterday's review, it's the same players who were scoring at the end of last season who aren't scoring now: Kuyt, Suarez, even Carroll (against City). And not playing Maxi is not the reason Liverpool are tallying fewer than 10% of their chances. At the same time, Liverpool usually played 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 through that run-in, but 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 this season is the devil and should be killed with fire, whether it's Kuyt-Suarez or Carroll-Suarez up front.

As for chances created, the focus of last summer's spending. During that Brum-Newcastle-Fulham stretch, with 13 goals scored, Liverpool created 35 chances – 13 against Birmingham and Fulham, nine against Newcastle. Compare that to three of the eminently-frustrating results mentioned in the previous paragraph. Liverpool created 12 chances against Sunderland, 18 at Stoke, and 19 against Blackburn. And these aren't cherry-picked numbers. Chances created in other disappointing results: 12 at Wigan, 17 at Fulham, 15 against Swansea, 20 against Norwich, etc. All via FourFourTwo's StatsZone.

Two of Liverpool's summer signings, Adam and Downing, have created the most Liverpool chances by some distance. The reason each was purchased. The obvious logic is that more chances created leads to more goals created. This season's done much to kill that notion. Liverpool's attack at the end of last season was ruthless in front of goal. The same front players, on the whole, are the opposite of ruthless this season, and it's not because of fewer opportunities or where they're getting said opportunities.

And it's a problem that grows as the monkey on strikers' back grows. Each miss makes the player think longer and harder about the next. Confidence drains with every post hit and penalty spurned. At the same time, it's far easier to score after scoring. Hot and cold streaks happen in every sport, even when they're sustained over the course of a season. After all we've seen, I still believe one or two ruthless demolitions like we saw 11 months ago changes an awful lot. Much like a fortunate hat-trick against United pushed Kuyt on for the rest of the campaign or, further back, Crouch's first Liverpool goal after a long barren stretch led to him scoring seven in the same month. And Liverpool's current players have ruthless demolitions in them, whether for Liverpool in the past or at their previous clubs. As unfulfilling as it as to credit intangibles like confidence and luck, both go a long way in determining form. Single spark, prairie fire. Yes, still.

Short-term v long-term
Last season's attack during the run-in was consistent; Carroll played against City and Arsenal, but otherwise it was Suarez, Kuyt, Maxi, and Meireles in Liverpool's big wins. That consistent front four was also getting on in years. Kuyt, Suarez, Meireles, and Maxi's average age at the time was 28.5; Kuyt and Maxi were 30, Meireles 28. Keeping the latter and using Kuyt and Maxi more might have led to a few more points this season (although, given Kuyt and Maxi's form when they have played, that's in doubt), but it would also put Liverpool in a worse position long-term, even if Liverpool's most recent signings don't pan out. It's also probably churlish to mention that Meireles has had a stinker of a season for Chelsea.

The damage which Hicks and Gillett inflicted required a massive overhaul, no matter a five-match hot streak with Champions League qualification a lost cause. Liverpool made six summer signings not counting Doni, four of whom usually start if available. The average age of Adam, Bellamy, Coates, Downing, Enrique, and Henderson is 25, which drops to 23.6 without free-transfer Bellamy. Because of Hicks and Gillett (and because of Hodgson's signings), Liverpool had to get younger. And fast. With four to six changes to the first-team, growing pains were inevitable. At least now Liverpool have a foundation for the future. Downing and Adam may have disappointed more than they've impressed, Henderson remains more potential than potent, but those three players still put Liverpool in a better position for the future than Maxi and Meireles did. The squad is now deeper, younger, and more valuable.

Liverpool are in transition. We'd hoped the transition would go more smoothly. We arguably had a right to expect it. It hasn't. Nonetheless, again, aside from that five-match stretch, Liverpool weren't radically better during last season's run-in, simply more ruthless in front of goal. Performances this season, while massively inconsistent, remain better than under Hodgson and 'nearly' as good as during last season's run-in, even if results don't measure up. Because of goal-scoring. Because Suarez and Kuyt and even Carroll aren't scoring as they did at times last season. It's not Adam, Henderson, and Downing's fault those players, in position to score, aren't scoring more.

I love you, Lucas Leiva
Also, this. Goal-scoring may be the alpha and omega, but missing the Brazilian midfielder has been almost as much of an issue. Admittedly, Comolli and Dalglish deserve criticism for not replacing him; Spearing is a useful squad player, but nowhere near Lucas' level, and has played his best football for the club when partnered with Lucas. Spearing's not as effective holding in front of the back four, setting the tempo, starting the attacks, etc. In retrospect, no other absence could have hurt Liverpool's more: not Suarez, not Gerrard, not Agger. Maybe not even Reina.

Also, a lack of Lucas has assuredly hurt Charlie Adam. I maintain what I've said all season: Adam has his faults and his benefits, and the former frequently obscure the latter. Without Lucas, those faults are magnified. That partnership was increasingly potent as they formed an understanding, a near-archetypal blend of creator and destroyer. And without Lucas, Adam (or Gerrard, for that matter) necessarily has more defensive work to do. Which isn't his strong suit in the slightest. Still, it's hard to blame Adam's frequent inability to tackle for Liverpool's problems when conceding goals isn't Liverpool's problem. Liverpool miss Lucas as metronome much more than Lucas as wrecking ball. Which is the one facet that Adam, Gerrard, and Spearing can't replicate.

Liverpool could and should have planned better, but there's only so many fingers to stick in the dike's numerous holes. And Liverpool couldn't have predicted that Lucas would have missed 2/3rds of the season thanks to a freak injury.


There are other, less important excuses. Suarez's stupidly-incurred suspension(s). Gerrard's continued injury problems. Reina conceding a handful more goals because of arguable mistakes. And, yes, a handful of mistakes from the manager: tactical, selection, or substitution. Still, I'm content laying most of the blame with goal-scorers, transition, and a lack of Lucas. One facet at the foot of aforementioned players, two thanks to the cruel hand of fate.

The easiest recommendation is adding an out-and-out scorer, either replacing or in addition to Carroll. As much as I hate writing it, that purchase looks Liverpool's worst business by some distance, record fee or no record fee. I really want to like the player: young, multi-talented (even if he doesn't show it enough), and with a physicality that most defenders can't handle when he's on his game. But goals are the problem and Liverpool's most-expensive striker rarely looks like scoring. When he can even get in the side.

But then again, Andy Carroll is just 23. It could also mean, much to our chagrin, that Liverpool still needs more time to adjust to the past year's overhaul, made with an eye on the future despite short-term hopes for an immediate return to the Champions League.

I'm not exonerating Liverpool's player recruitment or certain team selections. Despite the above excuses, there's still a chance Downing, Adam, Henderson, and/or Carroll don't work out. It was a calculated gamble, one we still can't fully judge. Liverpool's pre-FSG state, Chelsea and City's oil money, United's insane commercial revenue, Financial Fair Play regulations, and no Champions League football means Liverpool have to gamble. But Liverpool also gambled when paying £10m for Alonso, taking West Ham-outcast Mascherano on an expensive loan, and breaking the club transfer record on an unproven-outside-of-Spain Torres. And gambled on Pennant, Gonzalez, Riera, etc solving the non-stop problem on the flanks. Sometimes gambles work and sometimes gambles don't.

All I meant by yesterday's review was that things aren't as bad as some make out and Liverpool's tactics against Arsenal worked well everywhere but in front of goal. We all mock Chelsea for failing to give Villas-Boas time and leeway to make necessary changes, then demand Dalglish return to what worked for a month almost a year ago. No one likes suffering through the short-term in the hopes it'll eventually pay off, but patience remains a virtue. Yes, even when the sky is falling. Which it isn't at the moment. Even if/when Liverpool miss Champions League qualification for next season, there's still a very good chance that patience pays off in the future.

On Suarez and Spearing's Positioning

Lucas' absence and Liverpool's subsequent change in formation altered the position of two of Liverpool's key players against Fulham: whoever the holding midfielder is and Luis Suarez.

Jay Spearing often played further up the pitch than Lucas usually defends, while far more static in general. The 4-3-3 formation, with Carroll as center-point and Suarez and Bellamy lurking on either side, meant Liverpool's talismanic Uruguayan took up positions further from goal.

I'm using West Brom away, Stoke away, and Wolves at Anfield as points of comparison in chalkboards below. As said in yesterday's review, I think West Brom is the strongest parallel except in finishing – similar opposition playing style, away from Anfield, and with Carroll and Henderson starting. Stoke away is comparable in result, losing despite domination, while Wolves at home was another where Liverpool's performance disappointed but the side ground out a result due to taking its chances early on. The possession, passing, and shot statistics against Fulham are relatively similar to those against West Brom and Wolves; the result is the same as that against Stoke. If anything, stats from Stoke and Fulham – the two losses – look "better" than those against Wolves or West Brom.

As usual, click on the chalkboards to make them pop-up full size.

Suarez



The chalkboards and heatmaps against Fulham show Suarez making more of his contributions further from the penalty area, whether deeper centrally or spending more time on the flanks. He attempted the fewest passes from these four matches against Fulham, and his performance is especially disappointing in comparison to that at West Brom – where he won the penalty and set up the second goal.

Suarez was widely known as a wide forward with Ajax before coming to Liverpool, but he's played as an out-and-out striker in almost every match under Dalglish, and is now playing a similar role with Uruguay (see Zonal Marking's Copa America reports, among others). His performance in a three-man front, an admittedly unfamiliar role at Liverpool, left much to be desired.

Update: Should have included take-ons as well. StatsZone chalkboards from Fulham (1 successful, 5 total), West Brom (3 of 6), Wolves (4 of 9), and Stoke (4 of 12).

Spearing


Unlike in Suarez's case, the amount of passes played seemed less important than the location, so I'm just including the heatmaps. That 40% zone stands out like a Las Vegas neon sign, surprisingly static, and further forward than Lucas usually plays. There was less movement in Liverpool's midfield without the Brazilian, as well as more space between the holding midfielder and back four, allowing more shots from distance than Liverpool regularly permits.

More chalkboards from Spearing at Fulham compared to Lucas against West Brom:




Spearing's tackles all occurred in the center of the pitch and most of his interceptions are in the same zone where 40% of his passes came from. Filling in for Lucas is a weighty burden, and it's a new role without a Brazilian safety net. Lucas partnered Spearing in all ten of the Liverpudlian's starts under Dalglish last season and in three of four prior to Fulham this season; Spearing with Adam in a 4-2-3-1 against Exeter had been the lone exception.

To be fair, Dalglish may have shifted to a 4-3-3 because of the opposition or to try to use Carroll, Bellamy, and Suarez at the same time, rather than because of Lucas' absence. Given how rarely we'd seen the formation – at Spurs was the only other time this season by my count, and that didn't last long; incidentally the only other time Liverpool's incurred a red card this season – some struggles are to be expected. But at the first time the question's asked, it's frightening evidence that Liverpool will miss Lucas Leiva very, very much.

Liverpool Without Lucas

Finally confirmed out for the season after a day filled with rumors, it's incredibly hard to forecast what Liverpool will do without Lucas. He's missed just three of Dalglish's 39 matches: rested for two, suspended for one. Since 2009, he's missed so few games that it's statistically irrelevant posting win-loss percentages with and without the player: he appeared in 34 of 38 league games in '10-11 and 35 of 38 in '09-10. Incidentally, he's never missed a Liverpool game through injury. Until now.

Considering the three missed under Dalglish, Exeter in the Carling Cup barely counts, so we're left with this season's 1-1 v Norwich and last season's 1-0 v Fulham. The former saw Liverpool stick with the primary 4-2-2-2 formation with Gerrard and Adam in midfield. With Liverpool's captain still out indefinitely, that's an unlikely template. The latter, early in Dalglish's reign, saw a 4-2-3-1 with Gerrard and Poulsen holding behind Meireles – also a poor template with both Meireles and Poulsen gone and Gerrard still injured. Liverpool impressed in neither.

There seem to be two options, at least until the January window when Liverpool will probably reinforce. One, stick with the 4-2-2-2 formation with Spearing or Henderson instead: the former more a like-for-like replacement, the latter probably adding more to the attack (which would require more defense out of Adam and, to be fair, he's been better in that regard lately). Or Liverpool could shift to a 4-2-3-1/4-2-1-3 as the primary formation, with both Spearing and Henderson included.



Either way, it's as big a loss as possible. Only Suarez and Reina are arguably more important to the side. I'm tempted to suggest that the three-man midfield is a better option, using a trio to try to cover Lucas' one-man band, but Dalglish has shown a distinct preference for the former formation this season. I expect Spearing will be given the nod in the 4-2-2-2 for Liverpool's trip to Fulham on Monday. Lucas' defense, his tackling and positioning, will be dearly missed, but Spearing's shown he can replicate that. It's the metronomic control over midfield, a calm head under pressure, settling and starting Liverpool's attacks, which will be the hardest to replace.

There are also a couple of more remote possibilities: Aurelio's covered in midfield before, while Liverpool could play three at the back, but neither seems incredibly likely.

Trying to sap the frightening emotion from this development, it'll be interesting to see how Liverpool cope. More often than not, Dalglish and Clarke have done excellently on the tactical front. This might be their biggest challenge yet. Yes, bigger than settling the ship last season, coping with the loss of the captain, or dealing with the exit of the former star striker. Interesting and terrifying.

Good luck, Lucas.

A Day in the Life: Lucas v City

There seems little point in doing a usual chalkboard review. I'd end up focusing on Lucas Leiva's marvelous performance, and you can just as easily head to the Guardian or Stats Zone app and see them for yourself. Each is a beautiful, unique snowflake worthy of admiration, and I recommend doing so.

I thought I'd display his statistics somewhat differently.


As usual, click to expand. Larger version available here. You can see similar in StatsZone's player dashboard, but not in its full chronological glory, which does the comprehensive, exhaustive performance more justice.

Lucas won more tackles and aerial duels than any other player (with zero unsuccessful in both categories), tied for the most completed passes with Barry and Toure, and tied for the most interceptions with Clichy and Kompany, while committing just one foul (in the 7th minute). He was head and shoulders the best player on the pitch; only Hart's brilliant saves get him in the discussion. I also can't help but mention that the Brazilian completed 11 straight passes in less than four minutes, from the 78th through the 81st – that very thick block of dark blue near the end of the chart. That's only four passes fewer than Agüero completed in his 82 minutes on the pitch.

Lucas put in work for 90 straight minutes, and it shows in his statistics, as well as the effusive praise he's getting from all corners of the internet. I'm admittedly prone to exaggeration when it comes to the player and have said it so much I fear it'll lose its meaning, but he's indescribably important to this Liverpool side, and would walk into almost any XI in the league. Few sides have so diligent a destroyer, and even fewer are as clever, disciplined, durable, and efficient. Or young, for that matter; it's incredibly easy to forget the midfielder's still just 24.

Long may it continue. And odds are that it will.

Lucas: The Holding Midfielder

With Lucas suspended for Saturday, having already picked up five bookings (four in the league, one in the Carling Cup), I thought I'd take a look at how his defending has matured since becoming a regular starter in 2009-10.




Lucas appeared in 35 league matches (32 starts, three subs) in 2009-10, 33 (32 starts, one sub) in 2010-11, and in all eight so far this season.

The above shows a natural evolution for a still-young foreign player becoming accustomed to the league and receiving more responsibility in each successive season. He's made more tackles, both successful and attempted, and has markedly improved tackling percentage without a subsequent increase in fouls committed. But can we call it "maturation" with Lucas incurring so many more bookings this season?

Lucas didn't pick up his first league booking in '10-11 until Liverpool's 12th game: at Wigan on November 10. In '09-10, his first league booking came in Liverpool's 13th game: against City on November 21. His first this season came in the second match, at Arsenal, followed up with cards against Wolves, Everton, and United in the last three fixtures.

I have two theories for the increase in yellow cards. First, he's had far more cleaning up to do when paired with Adam in midfield, which also partly accounts for his increase in tackles. Second, due to his increased visibility, referees are simply paying far more attention to the player. I like the second excuse. It has just the right conspiratorial mix of "it's not his fault" and "it's the referee's fault." There are probably elements of truth in both.

His 111 successful tackles and 172 attempted tackles led the league in both categories last season. If he plays the same number of fixtures as last season, he's on pace for 144 successful tackles and 198 attempted tackles.

There is one disclaimer in regards to Lucas' 2010-11 numbers. As with everything last season, there's a clear difference between Lucas under Hodgson and Lucas under Dalglish. In his 17 matches under Dalglish (compared to playing in 16 of Hodgson's 20), Lucas averaged 4.06 successful tackles, 5.94 attempted tackles, 2.06 fouls committed, and 0.18 yellow cards per match. Significantly more successful and attempted tackles, slightly more fouls committed, but fewer yellow cards. That tackling percentage works out to 68.3%, similar to his '09-10 number.

It's not as if Lucas played with a less-defensive partner under Dalglish last season, as with Adam so far in this. Lucas' usual partner in last campaign's run-in was Spearing; he was usually paired with Gerrard, Meireles, or (less frequently) Poulsen under Hodgson. Like with many at the club, Dalglish has been good for the player, and Lucas has responded in kind.

Now, if he could just cut back on the bookings. Liverpool can't have him missing many games this season.

Midfield Partnerships vs Pairings

A quick note. Instead of the usual Guardian Chalkboards, there are links to the FourFourTwo StatsZone diagrams. Similar utilities, but StatsZone has a couple of features I like better, primarily the way they classify tackles, show passes in the final third, and its ease of use. If you have an iPhone, iPad, etc., I highly recommend it.

Against Sunderland, Lucas and Adam were a pairing. Two players playing in central midfield. Against Arsenal, they were a partnership.

Lucas is the more defensive of the two, but against Arsenal, the Brazilian was able to join the attack more than usual. Adam, the more play-making, sat notably deeper and was far better in the tackle.

Compare where each made tackles against Sunderland and Arsenal: Lucas and Adam. The combination contributed more than half of Liverpool's total successful tackles (13 of 24) on Saturday.

The better understanding allowed Lucas more influence. Adam didn't attempt to dominate proceedings and his partner benefited. Both alternated going forward to better effect – for example, Adam in the run-up to the Henderson chance in the 23rd minute or Lucas's role in Suarez's clinching goal. When one went forward, the other knew to sit, and it wasn't just Adam going forward willy nilly.




After the match, I posted a link to each's passes in the attacking third on Twitter, somewhat surprised that Lucas completed more than his partner. Again, both Lucas and Adam's output was dramatically better than against Sunderland – Lucas, Adam – despite the fact the latter was at home against a bottom-half side and the former was at a ground where Liverpool had never won. Lucas attempted and completed far more, Adam's came further forward and were more dangerous. The Scot only had two unsuccessful passes into the opposition's penalty area a week ago. On Saturday, Adam had three successful and four unsuccessful entering Arsenal's box.

Both Adam's and Lucas' passing wheels (see previous passing wheels for Lucas, Gerrard, and Henderson.) were unsurprising on the whole, typical of each's style.

The Guardian Chalkboards (there's that crutch) for each can be found here. As usual, only open play passes are included in the wheel, so two free kicks from Lucas and three free kicks, two corners, and one throw-in from Adam aren't included.





Each played his own game – Adam's passes were usually more ambitious, even sideways and backwards; Lucas had a higher completion percentage (86.0% to 82.3%) and looked for shorting, knitting passes. But countering some of the presumed beliefs, Lucas played fewer backward and had more going directly forward. In fact, the Brazilian's only unsuccessful passes came in the first quadrant.

You'd expect the two to better harmonize in their second game together. It takes time to make a central midfield partnership work; even Alonso and Mascherano took half a season to fully integrate. But Lucas and Adam's progression from a draw with Sunderland to a win at Arsenal was impressive, and bodes very well for the future, regardless of the opposition's current crises.

Spin the Wheel

Every now and then, I stumble across an absolutely brilliant idea on someone else's website. When that happens, I usually steal it.

Last week, Dan from Aston Villa Central created what he called the "passing wheel," taking the Guardian Chalkboard passing data and re-plotting all the passes from a central point. It's utterly phenomenal.

As T.S. Eliot memorably wrote, "Immature poets imitate; mature poets steal." Don't bother looking up the second half of that quotation, by the way. Is it stealing if I give credit? Regardless, I wanted to use the idea to look at Lucas' body of work in Liverpool's last two matches.




What I like most about the diagram is how it highlights directionality. The myth about Lucas is that he's a player who plays the "safe" passes, playing sideways and backwards more often than not. These graphics help dispel that notion.



Out of the 103 passes attempted in both matches, 88 of them were played forward – 85%. 72% of Lucas' total attempted passes were both completed and went forward. Only 6 passes against Chelsea and 9 passes against Wigan were backwards and none were misplayed. 15 out of 103 attempts. So much for that myth.

Interestingly, the right side of sector 1 is almost wholly vacant against Chelsea. Johnson and Maxi were Lucas' most frequent targets, both playing on the left side of the field. Aurelio, predominantly left-footed, was also a recurring outlet when he came on a substitute for Maxi. Kelly received only three passes from Lucas in that match. Lucas, as with the rest of the side that day, clearly had a specific task, planned down to the last detail by Dalglish and Clarke. It wasn't so regimented against Wigan, with an almost similar total between left and right sides, but still a slight preference to the left.

To break it down further, into sectors 1a and 1b etc with A as the left and B as the right...



Lucas was necessarily more "adventurous" against Wigan – more passes into sector 1 than 2, the opposite of his statistics against Chelsea – but also had a higher incompletion rate. More laterally balanced, searching for some opening in Wigan's compressed defense, and more inclined to push play ahead, as Liverpool needed to be on the attack, especially after conceding an equalizer. As happened to the team all too often, it didn't quite come off, but the intent was there. As a whole, Liverpool disappointed yesterday; it's not the fault of any individual. Except maybe the linesman who completely missed Gohouri being offside.

I will probably return to this style of graphic in the future. Plotting each pass is somewhat labor-intensive; I've only had the chance to study Lucas so far, and only the last two matches. That he's the primary defensive midfielder and due to the aforementioned prevailing myth, I thought his play would be a good starting point.

All season long, Lucas has been converting nonbelievers. Long may it continue.

Edit: Here are the actual chalkboards from Chelsea and Wigan.

Growing up is hard to do

I couldn't be happier to see praise for Lucas echo around the internet after his dominating performance against the league leaders yesterday. Passing, tackling, interceptions, the whole package. It's as if he suddenly turned a corner.



Oh, wait. Those are his passing statistics against Manchester United in March 2009. This is yesterday's chalkboard.



And this is a comparison of his tackles in the two matches.



Now, the above could be an example of how statistics never tell a full story. And Lucas was comparatively better yesterday: more incisive forward passes, more tackles attempted and won, with a far bigger role than he had in March 2009. I remember being impressed by that Lucas' performance almost 20 months ago, but nowhere near as impressed as I was by his all-around dynamism yesterday. He's frequently been better against bigger opposition, but never 'grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck' as he did yesterday. You didn't see YouTube compilations like this after the United match.

In addition, there were vast differences in the two victories. Yesterday's win came be summed up by perseverance, a willingness to work until legs fell off, and two superlative strikes from Torres. This season's Liverpool is a side struggling for form, swimming against an incoming tide. In contrast, the victory over United was utter domination after the Mancs opened the scoring, with Liverpool in the middle of a streak where they played some of their best football ever under Benitez.

But the point remains. No matter how impressive he was against Chelsea, deserving every bit of praise he's come in for, it wasn't his first rodeo. He's deserved criticism in the past, on a steep learning coming from Brazil at the age of 20. I can't and won't pretend he hasn't made some mistakes, and has had to improve every aspect of his game. There have been growing pains every step of the way. Yet people seem to forget he's still only 23, held to a higher standard than many players at a similar age, especially foreign ones still adapting to a different style of play and massively different culture. Central midfield in the Premier League is an unforgiving position. But the kid's strength of character, replying to boos from the Anfield faithful by putting his head down and working harder, always led me to believe that growth was possible. Not to mention that he's been one of Liverpool's most consistent players for more than a year now, although that's admittedly not much to gloat over after the year Liverpool's had.

What I'm trying to hammer home is that yesterday wasn't the first time he's shone in a Liverpool shirt, even if it was his best overall performance. And, with Liverpool needing the young man to play an increasingly larger role, I'm fairly certain it won't be the last.

On Aquilani “versus” Lucas

Yep, can't help myself. It's the big talking point after yesterday's win.

It's simplistic, but the main difference between Lucas and Aquilani seemed the type of passes they look to play. I'm approximating for effect, but something like 2 out of 5 Lucas passes push the ball upfield (a big reason why his pass attempts and completion rate are so high). It was about 4 of 5 from Aqua yesterday.

Seeing Liverpool intent on getting the ball into the opposition half and perpetually moving towards goal is something we've all been rightfully clamoring for. The tactic worked a peach against Portsmouth, and I wish we had seen similar against the likes of Wolves and Wigan, even if both were away from Anfield. The direness in attack has demonstrated Benitez needs to remove the shackles since the defense has settled. But it won't work in every game, as much as we'd all love for Liverpool to set the tone and tempo every time out.

I can't help comparing yesterday's team to Liverpool's 5-1 win over Newcastle in December 2008. That line-up was:

Reina
Carragher Agger Hyypia Insua
Lucas Mascherano
Benayoun Gerrard Babel
Kuyt

Lucas and Mascherano holding, Kuyt as a lone striker, and Carragher instead of Johnson at right back. And yet Liverpool still scored five. I wouldn't have wanted to see that team yesterday, and Newcastle's defense was even worse than Pompey's on that day (especially on set plays), but it's worth noting that system's brought goals in the past (and a similar XI, albeit with Torres up top, featured in the 4-1 win over the Mancs).

Yesterday's line-up, with an equally emphatic scoreline against a team bound for the Championship, looked completely different. I wrote it up as 4-1-4-1 in my match review, even if Aquilani was a deep-lying playmaker almost in the vein of (say it quietly) Alonso at times. But he demonstrated far more off the ball movement and attacking verve (and much less, albeit unnecessary, defensive aptitude); this is an enjoyable compilation of his match. It's exceptionally early days, but Aquilani looked most like a bigger Paul Scholes.

But just because Aquilani was an absolute pleasure to watch yesterday doesn't mean Lucas is a bad player or Liverpool can't win with Lucas/Mascherano in midfield. The two aren't relative or reciprocal. Both Lucas and Aquilani have roles to fill and can succeed at the club.

Liverpool's found it difficult to break down sides with the usual 4-2-3-1 where it worked a treat last season. Whether that's down to Liverpool injuries (most significantly to Torres), poor individual performances, Alonso's exit, more conservative tactics from Benitez, or the opposition figuring the system out is for someone smarter than I to deduce (although my guess is it's a bit from each). This obviously could be a remedy.

Thursday's match against Lille will be an excellent barometer for any longer-term tactical changes. I don't want to take any steam out of the preview I'll write tomorrow, but we should learn a bit about the team and the rest of the season. It's a European match, so you'd expect Liverpool to be cagey, but they need a goal. But they also have to be more cautious than against Pompey as Lille have the pieces to pose a huge threat on the counter (Hazard, Frau, Cabaye, Obraniak). However, even though Liverpool play three games in six days during this crucial stretch, that the team played its best football in months on Monday will hopefully be the overriding factor.

Either way, it'll be interesting. It's a European night at Anfield.

What’s Changed?

This season’s been utterly inexplicable. Confidence is smashed, the team is an utter shadow of itself, and everything seems to be imploding. So, naturally, I feel the need to explain it. Time to list every difference I can think of, as if that’ll help. I should have just titled this post “Blame Everybody.”

Xabi Alonso
The elephant in the room. Better players have left Liverpool at key times before. And while I’m hesitant to overemphasize Alonso’s importance (despite the effusive praise written throughout last season), maybe he’s more vital to the 4-2-3-1 than thought. Liverpool rarely used the formation during Xabi’s “bad seasons,” often playing with some combination of Kuyt, Bellamy, and Crouch (and then Torres if we’re counting ’07-08) up top. Now, the formation that saw Liverpool unbeaten in 13 of 14 to finish last season, putting 4 or more goals past Madrid, United, Villa, Blackburn, Chelsea, and Arsenal, looks wholly impotent. Benitez can hardly be blamed for Alonso wanting to leave, and got double what he would have taken for the player a season before, but Liverpool hasn’t compensated on the pitch.

Lucas
Alonso’s replacement with Aquilani out far longer than expected. I’ve defended and will probably continue to defend Lucas. He’s steadily improved and delivered impressive performances in a fair few matches. He shouldn’t be the scapegoat he is; he’s been one of the team’s most consistent players. But the team’s unarguably different when Lucas and Mascherano are in midfield. Even Lucas’ staunchest defenders (like me!) have to admit the duo’s nowhere near incisive enough. The three high-scoring victories – Stoke, Burnley, and Hull – came with Lucas and Gerrard in the middle.

Johnson
The “other” high profile signing. He started impressively, especially in attack, but is part of a backline that’s been unbalanced all season long. He was marginally at fault for three of the last four goals conceded, and hasn’t looked the same player since returning from injury, turning into an absolute defensive liability, which has also restricted his forays forward.

Insua
And the other backline change (aside from early-season CB injuries), getting more playing time than he otherwise would thanks to Aurelio’s inability to stay healthy. He can be a tidy defender, but has struggled with the pace of certain players and the height of others. He's only 20 years old. Like Johnson and Lucas, he’s nowhere near the sole or main reason for Liverpool’s problems, but yet another to add to the list.

Injuries
Blaming injuries is a weak excuse, but bear with me. The big gamble on Aquilani – which might have had something to do with a lack of funds – has completely failed. He was out far longer than expected, with Liverpool off the pace by the time he was “available,” and he even missed the last match after picking up a calf strain. But the entire side’s kept the trainers busy. Torres has started 15 of 26 games. Gerrard’s started 19, only 12 with Torres. Benayoun, Riera, Aurelio, Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Babel, and Kelly have all missed significant games. But all teams have problems; United and Arsenal have had similarly difficult absences.

The Scousers’ form
Carra and Gerrard are often and rightfully described as Liverpool’s heartbeat. As they go, so goes the club. And neither’s had a season to write home about. Carra saw a lot of stick for the early defensive woes – often looking a step off the pace – although he’s also had some good games that also happened to be wins (United, for one). Meanwhile, Gerrard’s been the opposite of influential since returning from injury (noticing a trend?), unable to dictate proceedings from midfield or in attack, his the telepathic partnership with Torres failing to fire. It’s not like the two are the only senior players off the pace – Reina and arguably Torres (injured but has still scored 11 goals) are the only ones having decent seasons (along with Lucas and Ngog, who aren’t senior players) – but Gerrard and Carragher are beyond crucial.

Luck
The most intangible of my explanations, but still merits a mention. A clear penalty – an opportunity to equalize – denied in the first match. Players like Jerome and Belhadj scoring the goals of their careers. Two dubious red cards at Fulham – the same game where Kuyt’s work ethic was what set up Fulham’s winner. Late goals galore. The bloody beach ball! Karma must be a bitch.

Net spending
Ah, here’s where I can complain about off the pitch problems, specifically my lying, two-faced countrymen (*spit*).

Liverpool’s net spending under Benitez (numbers from lfchistory.net):

Summer 2004: £22.2m
January 2005: £7.3m
Summer 2005: £6.78m
January 2006: £6.05m
Summer 2006: £15.78m
January 2007: £1.3m
Summer 2007: £18.07m
January 2008: £17.06m
Summer 2008: £18.5m
January 2009: -£16m
Summer 2009: -£150,000

Numbers are fungible – a couple of undisclosed transfers in each direction, incentives, and the oft-disputed price for Torres, among other debatable points – but that would be a £16,150,000 “profit” over the last two windows after spending an average of almost £18m in the previous three windows. Oh, and there’s a pile of debt on the club (which is where that transfer profit went) and no new stadium anywhere on the horizon. And we expect Liverpool to keep pace with the likes of Chelsea and United, let alone City, Spurs, and Villa. Thanks, George and Tommy. I especially appreciate you making all Americans look bad. Please sell. Now. That’d be the biggest turning point possible.

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This season has been a confluence of kicks to the crotch, to say the least. Shit rolls downhill, so on, so forth. It’s led to a team that’s definitively and deservedly mid-table so far.

But listing all the shortcomings and misfortunes is the easy part. The real question is how to fix it. Whatever the form, even after his team was out-fought by the Premiership’s bottom club, even with morale seemingly so low, Benitez deserves until the end of the season to rectify these problems – at least the ones he’s accountable for. Evident evolution over five seasons, two Champions League finals, including one night in Istanbul, and Liverpool’s best haul in the Premiership for more than 20 seasons last year have earned him that much. Benitez obviously has to bear some of the blame – players need to sort themselves out, but it’s the manager’s job to get the most out of them and put them in the best situation to win. Neither’s been accomplished recently.

If Liverpool’s still in this situation come May, the club has to look around for a top-class manager brave/dumb enough to try and put it right (there’s always a surplus of them…). And I can’t believe it’s come to the point where I’ve written that sentence.

Different games, different midfields

In the midst of the Alonso summer saga, I posted the results from different midfield pairings. Lucas/Mascherano’s line looked like this:

6 wins, 4 draws
2-0 West Brom, 3-0 West Ham, 4-1 United, 1-1 City, 1-1 Wigan, 0-0 Stoke, 5-1 Newcastle, 3-1 PSV [4-4-2], 0-0 Fulham [4-4-2], 2-1 Marseille

Let’s ignore the PSV and Fulham games because of the 4-4-2 formation in Gerrard’s absence (and Torres’ against PSV). So you have romps over United and Newcastle, two decent late-season wins when the entire team was in blistering form, three uninspiring draws, and a tough win in Marseille. This season, the pairing started against Spurs, Stoke, Villa, Bolton, West Ham, Chelsea, Lyon, and United (4 wins, 4 losses).

Those results, coupled with yesterday’s enormous win, reiterate a lingering suspicion many have voiced. Mascherano and Lucas are a good pairing against teams that match Liverpool in possession and tempo. Ferguson fed into Liverpool hands by selecting a lightweight midfield in Scholes and Carrick (United definitely missed the injured Fletcher), but yesterday’s was the type of game in which Mascherano and Lucas thrive.

Unfortunately, two-thirds of the Premiership doesn’t play like that against Liverpool. The Newcastle mauling was more of an aberration against a side in dire straights, while very few teams were able to knock Liverpool off its stride at the end of last season, let alone West Ham or Albion.

On his day, Mascherano is a beast of a midfielder. He is utterly relentless when the opposition’s on the ball, hassles and harries with the best of them, and can man-mark the likes of Kaka out of existence. Let’s just say his attacking qualities aren’t as developed. Lucas is underrated – decent at a lot of things, but not a standout in any area – and still quite young for the position. He’s energetic (a quality Benitez adores), ticks over play, rarely loses possession, and can get from box to box. But despite how I hate how he’s a main scapegoat, this isn’t solely a defense of the player. He’s not a creative force, not a scruff-of-the-neck midfielder, like what Gerrard built his reputation upon. Of course, he’s also 22.

In games like those against West Ham and West Brom last season, as well as the Hammers and Bolton this season, the pairing suffices when Liverpool’s firing, but the creativity often comes from other sources. And when the other players, especially in attack, are underperforming, neither Mascherano nor Lucas can change proceedings. See: Spurs, Villa, and Lyon.

Which is where Alberto Aquilani, whose debut should take place soon, comes in.

We saw it in the Lucas/Gerrard pairing against Burnley and Hull – 4-0 and 6-1 wins – which worked well, but was probably a stopgap given how Gerrard and Torres combine upfront. Mascherano’s forte isn’t needed against the bus parkers. If Lucas isn’t picking up silly fouls, he can be an even more effective defensive midfielder in those games because of his aerial ability, which is how a lot of those teams attack Liverpool. And his versatility next to the likes of Gerrard gives Liverpool far more threat than that of Mascherano. The attacking capabilities of Aquilani should mix well with Lucas’ in those games.

So what does this mean for the future? If everyone’s fit, the team should continue to be built around the Gerrard/Torres attacking partnership. Mascherano, Lucas, and Aquilani would interchange in central midfield depending on the opposition.

Against the likes of Stoke and Burnley, it’ll be Lucas and Aquilani. Against the Uniteds and Chelseas, Benitez will probably go with Lucas and Mascherano. And against the rest – the mid-table opposition, the deceptively difficult away games – we’ll get the balanced Mascherano/Aquilani partnership: one defends, one attacks, and ideally in better proportion than Lucas and Mascherano. More balanced than Mascherano/Alonso as well, which was too defensive for some games last season.

Again, I worry that I’m building Aquilani up into an unreachable paragon, but what Benitez has in mind, and the reasons for gambling over Aquilani's fitness, seems evident.

To Lucas or Not To Lucas

Okay, so I don't want to single out Marlon (second time that I've posted because of one of your comments!), but I think this sentiment deserves to be here rather than subsumed beneath 15 previous comments.

At this point I'd rather see Lucas come good then seeing a new signing flourish in our midfield.

I'm doing my utmost to not assume Alonso's definitely departing, but it's difficult. And the discussion over his possible replacement is a valid one, as much as I don't really desire to tackle the issue.

But I agree with the above comment, and for two reasons – but I'm still a little nervous about him as an everyday player, as I am about pretty much every player until they establish themselves.

One, I've been underwhelmed by the names mooted as replacements. Some are good players – even potentially Liverpool-quality – but most would necessitate a change in system (which I don't want to happen, as it'd probably break up the Gerrard/Torres partnership). And none brings to the table what Alonso can.

Two, Lucas knows Benitez's system having been a Liverpool player for two full seasons, and has turned in some good performances against big teams (United, Inter, Chelsea). And while he's had his scapegoat moments (Wigan and Everton during the dire winter stretch last season), he's also consistently improved during his tenure. And he's only 22 years old.

But, I'm admittedly still a bit wary of the Masch/Lucas pairing against the likes of Stoke and Birmingham (among others). And I find that tough to reconcile with my firm belief in the 4-2-3-1 and the Gerrard/Torres pairing.

Hopefully, this will all be moot, but while hope springs eternal, the spring often runs dry.

On Liverpool’s Central Midfield

It’s time for another installment of “Here are the results when certain players play and let’s hope it proves something.” This edition focuses on the central midfield, as one of the midfielders evidently has Benitez tied up in his basement and is demanding plane tickets to Madrid (I think it was in the Daily Mail).

I’m only including pairings that played more than one game together, and counting games from every competition except the Carling Cup, which doesn’t add anything (unless you care that Lucas/Plessis was 1-0-1). The formation was 4-2-3-1 unless otherwise noted. As always, the formations are how I saw them, so feel free to quibble.

Mascherano/Alonso: 14-5-2
3-1 Spurs, 3-0 Newcastle, 4-4 Arsenal [4-4-2, no Ste], 4-0 Blackburn [4-4-2, no Ste], 5-0 Villa, 4-0 Real, 0-2 Boro, 1-0 Real, 2-0 Chelsea, 1-1 Everton (FAC), 2-0 Preston, 2-2 Hull, 3-1 Blackburn [4-1-4-1 with Masch sitting deep], 1-0 Marseille, 2-0 Bolton, 1-1 Atletico, 1-2 Spurs, 1-0 Chelsea, 1-1 Atletico, 3-2 City, 2-1 United [4-4-2, no Ste]

Lucas/Masch: 6-4-0
2-0 West Brom, 3-0 West Ham, 4-1 United, 1-1 City, 1-1 Wigan, 0-0 Stoke, 5-1 Newcastle, 3-1 PSV [4-4-2], 0-0 Fulham [4-4-2], 2-1 Marseille

Gerrard/Alonso [4-4-2]: 7-3-0
2-0 Sunderland, 1-1 Everton, 3-0 Bolton, 0-0 West Ham, 3-2 Wigan, 3-1 PSV, 2-0 Everton, 0-0 Stoke, 1-0 Liege (aet), 2-1 Boro

Lucas/Alonso: 2-1-2
1-3 Chelsea, 1-0 Fulham, 0-1 Everton (aet), 1-1 Arsenal, 1-0 Pompey

Alonso/Lucas/Masch [4-1-4-1]: 1-2-0
3-1 Hull, 4-4 Chelsea, 0-0 Villa

Also as always, stats aren’t the end all, be all. I don’t think Liverpool’s best in a 4-4-2 with Gerrard and Alonso in the middle (evidenced by the fact the last time that pairing featured was February), and I don’t expect Liverpool to go back to the formation even if Alonso’s sold. But there are still a couple of noteworthy tidbits.

Alonso and Mascherano, unsurprisingly, played the most games, and mostly played in the 4-2-3-1. And started in what might have been Liverpool’s best performances (4-0 Real and 5-0 Villa, although there’s clearly a case for 4-1 United), as well as the worst (0-2 Boro). Liverpool didn’t have any stale 0-0 league draws when Alonso and Mascherano were paired, scoring in 20 of the 21 matches, but the 0-2 Boro loss, 1-2 Spurs loss, and 2-2 Hull draw were arguably just as damaging to the campaign.

If you’d asked me to guess the records before looking them up, I’d have been close to accurate on Alonso/Masch, but not so much for Lucas/Alonso or Lucas/Masch. I’d have assumed Lucas/Alonso was a lot better and Lucas/Masch had one or two other tame draws. The 1-3 Chelsea loss is the only match I can remember where Liverpool was overrun in midfield when Lucas and Alonso started, and I distinctly remember praising their performance in the Arsenal match.

Given the Alonso “news,” I’m obviously most interested in the Lucas/Mascherano results. Which, unsurprisingly, are hit and miss – when they were good, Liverpool were fairly dominant, and Liverpool dominated in five of those six wins (Marseille was close throughout). And when they provided little cutting thrust, Liverpool weren’t very good, and that helped lead to the four draws. But it’s not as if you can blame a limited attack solely on the holding midfielders.

The opponents in the matches that ended even weren’t exactly a murderer’s row, which isn’t exceptionally heartening. Lucas/Masch worried me the most against teams with ten men behind the ball, and these stats don’t change that. But it’s not as if all the 0-0 draws came when Lucas and Mascherano started (just 40 percent!).

I’m most interested in the last three Lucas/Masch matches. Admittedly, Liverpool was hitting on all cylinders at the time, the attack was in blistering form, and that certainly helped. But the pairing also played to its potential, against mediocre teams happy to defend deep as well as the eventual champions, and that bodes well.

I realize I was considered a Lucas apologist back when he was a mid-season scapegoat. So you’re probably taking this with a grain of salt, and I don’t blame you. But I definitely think the kid’s got potential, and those late-season results make me hopeful something’s starting to click.

I still think Lucas needs to increase his game intelligence to be a regular starter (which comes with experience), and I still think that a replacement will be needed if Xabi leaves. But these stats will also make me feel better if that does happen.

On the injury “crisis”

• Torres is out for 3 weeks
• Alonso may have re-broken a metatarsal, which would put him out for another 4-6 weeks at best
• Pennant’s out for 8 to 10 weeks
• Agger’s out for another week or two
• There are still long-term questions over Aurelio and Kewell
• Plus, the players who aren’t completely healthy (Mascherano) or returning to fitness (Gerrard, Arbeloa), but should still feature

It’s not a good time on the injury front.

Was it worth it? Torres and Alonso started and it paid dividends in Liverpool’s play, but now they’re both out for a few more weeks. Had Liverpool held on for the win it’d be easier to stomach, but seeing the two of them trot off with injuries, and then for Liverpool to give up the equalizing goal, is a kick to the midsection.

It’s easy to write in hindsight, but Torres should have never started. While I’m very disheartened to lose Alonso for longer, especially with how much better he made Liverpool look yesterday, starting him was probably the right decision; he passed all the fitness tests, made it through training, and was able to positively impact the outcome of the match. We’ve seen over the past year how touchy metatarsals can be.

I hope to see a bit more of Lucas during Alonso’s absence this time around. I’ll be stunned if Sissoko and Lucas aren’t the starting central midfield on Wednesday, but even in the Premier League or Champions League, I think that Liverpool needs to have Lucas and Mascherano in the middle as Alonso and Masch were yesterday, with Gerrard in a free role or on the right.

With Torres out, we may see more of the formation we saw yesterday. Well, at the least we might see Liverpool deploy a lone striker (Kuyt or Crouch) with Gerrard in support (I can do without Kuyt/Voronin out wide). A 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1, however you want to draw it up.

For example:

Reina
Finnan Carra Hyypia Riise
Benayoun Lucas Mascherano Babel
Gerrard
Kuyt/Crouch

In Babel and Benayoun there should be enough speed, width, ability to cut in, and crosses to support Kuyt and Gerrard. Kewell’s return would work in this formation as well, or Gerrard can play on the right with Babel or Benayoun coming off the bench. And while it’s down the list of options, Leto and Voronin, as well as Riise, can play on the left on midfield.

Admittedly, I’m worried by these injuries, Alonso’s and Torres’ most of all. But I listed 9 players at the top, forwards, midfielders, and defenders, and all are important to Liverpool’s season.

Liverpool bought players this summer with an eye towards strengthening the entire squad. This is where purchases like Leto and Lucas need to pay off. For the next month or so, Liverpool’s going to be stretched very thin. The fixtures over that period will be Cardiff City (h), Blackburn (a), Besiktas (h), Fulham (h), Newcastle (a), and Porto (h).

On Gerrard, substitutions, and the derby

The biggest talking point following Saturday’s match, outside of Mark Clattenburg, was the 71st minute substitution of Steven Gerrard for Lucas, who had yet to play a single minute of Premier League action.

In retrospect, it was the right move. The game was tied 1-1 when Gerrard exited. The game finished 2-1. Lucas was heavily involved, setting up an excellent chance for Voronin in the 77th minute, and taking the cool, composed shot in injury time that Phil Neville had to handle to prevent a goal.

And yet, because it’s Gerrard, and because Benitez has come under a lot of scrutiny recently, people seem upset with the decision.

I agree with many; Sissoko played far worse than Gerrard, and was far guiltier for the majority of Liverpool’s turnovers.

But this discussion really begins and ends with Benitez’s post-match comments:

“In this game, sometimes you need to play with the brain and we were playing with heart. We needed to keep the ball and pass the ball.”

Admittedly, that’s a bit harsh, and I’m surprised to see Rafa so forthright. But it’s true. For all of Sissoko’s faults, and believe me, many were on display, Gerrard tried to do everything on his own, when the final ball wasn’t coming off for him, and was breaking up Liverpool’s attacks as much as Sissoko’s giveaways.

If Lucas comes on for Sissoko, does the way Liverpool plays change at all?

Lucas would have been subservient (for lack of a better term) to Gerrard in the center, and the problems Benitez spoke about would have continued. Liverpool’s shape would have still been contorted, as Gerrard did not stay on the left or right, nor was there room for him in the center with both Mascherano and Sissoko involved. And while Sissoko did little different after Gerrard went off and missed a glorious chance in the 79th minute, Lucas’s disciplined involvement turned the game in Liverpool’s favor.

I don’t want to put the cart so far in front of the horse, but Lucas was Alonso-esque yesterday, and Liverpool needed that sort of presence.

How this affects Gerrard I’m less sure about. Hopefully not at all, or even better, it pushes Gerrard to improve. But I do fear being brought off could negatively affect his confidence at a time where he’s not had the best spell for either Liverpool or England. Which is why I was so heartened by the way he celebrated Kuyt’s second goal and after the match.

Look, the name of this blog is “Oh You Beauty” for a reason. Steven Gerrard can be an absolutely immaculate player, and has saved Liverpool’s bacon time and time again. Olympiakos, AC Milan, West Ham, Luton; the list goes on, and that’s just the last couple of years. And it’s hard to fault him, especially as a local lad, for doing all he could to try and beat the city rivals, especially with his CV. But, and I think even he’d admit it, he’s not been at his best since the Chelsea match, although he is getting back on form bit by bit.

And while it’s very strange to write this when talking about Gerrard, no player is bigger than the team. Liverpool winning is what matters. Usually, that means Gerrard has a role to play given his importance and influence, and we’ve seen him “take the game by the scruff of the neck” and lead Liverpool to victory. But yesterday, cooler heads were necessary, and Stevie tried to do too much on his own.

Also, for all the stick that Benitez gets over his substitutions, in hindsight the only thing he did wrong yesterday was not bringing on Pennant for Sissoko until around 5 minutes were left. Bringing on Babel, whose speed can turn a game, for Benayoun, was the right move. I hope I’ve explained why I believe bringing on Lucas for Gerrard was the right move. Pennant for Sissoko was also a smart substitution, even if I think it should have happened earlier.

Credit to Benitez; I’ve complained about subs in the past, but the way the bench was managed on Saturday won Liverpool this derby. Rafa spotted where a substitute could change the game, made the substitution, and the game changed for the better. End of.

If complaints like these arise when Liverpool wins a Merseyside derby at Goodison Park, I’d hate to see what would have happened had Liverpool drawn or lost.

Lucas?

There had been rumors of Liverpool signing Brazilian midfielder Lucas over the past couple of days, and I had planned on ignoring it because it was just that, rumors, but it’s been confirmed by Benitez, and I’m certainly surprised to see it on the official site so quickly. That in and of itself says how much the club think of the signing.

Admittedly, I know very little about the player. Being captain of Brazil’s under-20s, and named the best player in the Brazilian league last season, I had heard of him, but that’s about it. But having been privy to all the speculation over the week, and the news of the last day or so, I’m now aware he’s always classed as a defensive holding midfielder. And this cannot bode well for Alonso, Sissoko, or Mascherano.

This isn’t the same situation as Paletta, Insua, or Leto, who will also be joining over the summer. Lucas is a fairly established player coming over from South America. He’s captain of the under-20 side, has recently been called up to the full national squad, and is a first team regular at Gremio, the club where Ronaldinho got his start. And the transfer fee’s rumored to have been something like 10 million Euros, or £4.5m, which is not a small sum. It’s actually just about what the club paid for Sissoko.

And on face value, it appears Sissoko will be the one leaving, with the article on the official side talking up similar qualities to those of Momo. And despite what Sissoko has done for Liverpool, despite the fact Benitez brought him here, and despite his youth, we know Rafa is ruthless enough to cut his losses if he so chooses.

But I still irrationally fear the loss of Xabi. There’s been little new news on the contract front, while we’ve still been hearing tabloid talk over those of Gerrard, Carragher, and Reina. And to tell the truth, Alonso has looked disillusioned at times this season. I firmly believe Xabi was one of the first names on the team sheet in Rafa’s first two seasons. I don’t know if that’s the case anymore. He is a classy, classy player, and I’d be gutted to see him go, but I can’t shake the feeling he will, if not this summer, then after next season.

Although, there is always the chance that Lucas will be a replacement for Mascherano if Benitez believes he’ll be unable to sign him on a new contract at the end of next season. His status is still in doubt, and there hasn’t been any concrete news on what the fee will be to sign him permanently in 2008.

So many possibilities. Just the way Rafa likes it. But 5 central midfielders is still at least one too many. And even though we’re still over a week away from Athens, I’m afraid I’m beginning to get caught up in the summer transfer speculation.

May 23rd needs to get here soon.

Update: So I may have been hasty in proclaiming him a defensive midfielder. I apologize, transfer gossip does this to me. From videos, more info coming out, and Benitez himself, Lucas looks to be groomed to be a box-to-box midfielder. Supposedly, he even considers Gerrard an idol. I guess the old chestnut of 'I've always rooted for Liverpool' can't be trotted out in this situation.

To supplement this nonsense, here's a couple of videos. One is a compilation of Lucas, the other is the interview done with Rafa yesterday in regards to the player.

• Rafa interview
• Compilation

And I want to make one other thing clear. Momo could be shipped out. Zenden could leave when his contract's up. Mascherano could ultimately be unaffordable. But when I say I fear Xabi leaving, I certainly don't believe the club will willingly sell him. If Xabi goes, it'll be of his own volition.