Showing posts with label Crystal Palace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crystal Palace. Show all posts

21 January 2019

Visualized: Liverpool 4-3 Crystal Palace

Previous Match Infographics: Brighton (a), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



Do we complain about Liverpool's defense now?

Three goals conceded in a league match for the first time in a calendar year. A counter-attack when Swansea beat Liverpool's six-player press, a simple set play header, and a late, lazy concession when the game appeared to be over.

Three opposition goals from three shots on-target, something that's only happened once since Jürgen Klopp became manager, in the 2-3 loss against Swansea in January 2017. For all of our defensive complaints last season, Liverpool conceded multiple goals from the same amount of shots on-target in just one match last season, the 1-2 loss at Manchester United.

Against an opponent who had the joint-17th worst scoring record in the division going into this match. Who had scored three goals against just one other league opponent so far this season. Which, to be fair, was Manchester City at Manchester City.

Maybe they've got previous.

The xG totals probably underrate Palace's output but, to be slightly fairer to Liverpool, none of the goals conceded came from clear-cut chances.



And, again, it's the first time that Liverpool have conceded three times this season. Liverpool have conceded three or more goals in at least four league matches in each of Klopp's three previous seasons. And Liverpool's record in those matches was 1W-1D-3L in 2015-16, 1W-3L in 2016-17, 1W-2D-2L in 2017-18. You unsurprisingly don't often win when conceding that many goals.

But the last in 2017-18 came almost exactly a year ago. Incidentally, right around the time that Virgil van Dijk signed for the club.

Also, it's not often an opponent beats a press that looks like this.


Both Keïta and Firmino missed tackles, dribbled past by James McArthur – a player who'd completed all of ten successful dribbles going into this game. Henderson, Robertson, and Mané are avoided as well, and van Aanholt got literal miles of space to run into with Milner unsurprisingly dropping back, needing to focus on Zaha's threat. Van Aanholt still finds Zaha, Zaha still beats Milner, and Fabinho and Robertson lose Townsend's cutting-in run with Kouyate also requiring attention.

It's not often that Liverpool concede from a corner. Tomkins' equalizer was just the fourth this season, with three of those in the league. Lamela's consolation came from a bouncing ball through Liverpool's six-yard box. Cork's opener for Burnley came after a couple of ricochets. Only Pavkov's goal for Red Star came from a similar cross directly from the corner-taker.

And it's not often that Liverpool concede that third; not only robbed of possession in their own half but more importantly down to ten men, with the defense both changed and unfamiliar thanks to Milner's dismissal and previous injuries.

We haven't seen goals conceded like those often this season. We haven't been many goals conceded at all this season. And I wouldn't expect to see many more.

But I do expect Liverpool to perform like that at the other end of the pitch.

Conceding three – while very, very annoying – doesn't really matter if you can get 'em back.

Liverpool, trailing in just five league matches so far this season, have come from behind to get at least a point in four of them. A late draw earned by Sturridge's star-destroyer at Chelsea, followed by three wins even though Liverpool conceded first in the last month and a half.

That's ten points gained from losing positions through 23 games. Which is already better than last season's nine points gained from losing positions.



A couple of somewhat-asides. First, we've seen more comeback wins than comeback draws this season in comparison to previous. Wins are good. I like wins. They're better than draws, and much harder to get than draws. Second, more than a few matches where Liverpool earned points from losing positions also saw Liverpool drop points from winning positions: 2-2 West Brom in 2015-16, 2-2 West Ham and 2-2 Bournemouth in 2016-17, and 3-3 Watford and 3-3 Arsenal in 2017-18. Matches where Liverpool were ahead, then behind, then level and hey nothing lost nothing gained. Not like the matches so far this season.

Unsurprisingly, Liverpool's front three got them back into this game. Which was necessary, because they were hardly in it in the first half.

Liverpool took ten first half shots. Just two came from Salah, Firmino, or Mané: Firmino's off-target blast from distance and Mané's easily saved set play header. The rest came from Liverpool's four defenders – two from each center-back, one from each full-back – and Fabinho. Those aren't the players you necessarily want firing at the opposition's goal. And it's somewhat symptomatic of Liverpool's frustration when playing against 11 players behind the ball, restricted to set play efforts and a handful of blasts from distance.

But it wasn't just shots. Salah, Firmino, and Mané combined for 79 touches in the opening 45 minutes, with just ten in Palace's penalty box. That total rose to 106 in the second half, with 22 in the penalty box. Those touches now led to seven shots, and – I guess most importantly – four goals.




It's the third time this season that all three have scored in the same match, and the 11th since the start of last season.

But Liverpool needed a good deal of fortune to get goals from all three. Van Dijk's shot cannoning off Tomkins and Speroni's error setting up Salah's goals. Another deflection on Firmino's goal. The ball bouncing kindly off Wan Bissaka rather than out of play – with Robertson doing excellently to keep it in – in the build-up to Mané's game-sealer.

It's not the first time Liverpool have been lucky this season. Origi's winner in the derby remains most memorable and most hilarious, but there are also Shaqiri's deflections against United, Salah's offside opener at Bournemouth (in a match where he still got a hat-trick), a handful of now-contentious penalties, and multiple missed opposition clear-cut chances – 40% of them off-target compared to Liverpool's 23% – including a potentially-all-important Mahrez penalty at Anfield.

Considering all the slights, both real and imagined, that we can point to from just last season, it's about damned time.

So, after all the out-of-the-ordinary, I am tempted to look at this match as an aberration, at both ends of the pitch. Liverpool do have history with aberrations and insanity against Crystal Palace, both in wild 3-3 and 4-2s, and in fortunate 2-1 turn-arounds.

But I am also aware that so many "flukes" and so much "luck" this season is probably more than just coincidence.

19 January 2019

Liverpool 4-3 Crystal Palace

Goals:
Townsend 34'
Salah 46' 75'
Firmino 53'
Tomkins 65'
Mané 90+3'
Meyer 90+5'

Did you miss last season's Liverpool? Did you miss the cardiac arrest?

So many memories.

Getting brick-walled in the first half by 11 men behind the ball. An opposition goal from a first counter-attack and first shot on-target. Liverpool somehow going on to concede twice more, from a set play and a late, late scramble. Three incredibly regrettable goals from just three opposition shots on-target.

Liverpool haven't conceded three goals in a match since last season's Champions League final. They hadn't done it in the league since the 4-3 win over City almost exactly a year ago. They hadn't done it against a non-top six side since the opening day of last season.

But!

At least Liverpool can't stop scoring either, once they finally make the break-through. Mohamed Salah can't stop scoring, his 15th and 16th in the league to continue leading the division, with six in the last six games in this regression of a second season. We get goals from all of Salah, Mané, and Firmino, for just the third time this season and only the second in the league. For the first time since *checks watch* Liverpool's last home game.

We get you score, I score, we all score. We get happy. We get angry. We get multiple heart attacks.

There are reminders, multiple reminders, but it's not quite last season's Liverpool.

No matter the threat of dropping points against a side that you shouldn't be dropping points against, a side that's given Liverpool multiple problems in recent meetings, managed by a frequent foil and, yes, former manager.

No matter going behind, going into halftime behind. No matter conceding from one of the easiest set plays you'll see. No matter conceding three times, three very last-season-Liverpool goals, from just three opposition shots on-target.

No matter the scares, no matter the set-backs.

No matter the pressure of leading the league.

This season's Liverpool does not crumble so easily. This season's Liverpool still isn't last season's Liverpool. Take the lead? Fine, we'll come back. Get an equalizer against the run of play? We're not done here yet.

But holy wow were we frightened.

We were frightened when Townsend gave Palace the lead in the 34th minute despite Liverpool having something like 90% possession before hand. The press fully engaged with the front six all chasing, the press broken by McArthur somehow retaining possession then finding van Aanholt in space, to Zaha one-on-one with Milner, Zaha to the byline and Townsend to the penalty spot for the cut-back.

We were frightened when Palace equalized at 2-2 after Liverpool's flurry to start the second half. Salah gets Liverpool back in the game within a minute, cheekily poaching van Dijk's deflected shot from distance with an outside-of-the-boot flick; Firmino gives Liverpool the lead with a bobbling deflected shot after good work from Robertson and Keïta.

We're celebrating. We're thankful. We're proud of this season's Liverpool's perseverance, skill, and fortune. But then we're punished. Thanks to Palace's first corner and the easiest header that James Tomkins will ever have, rising highest when Ayew pins van Dijk out of position and neither Fabinho nor Keïta can cover.

0-1, 2-1, 2-2. The specter of dropped points despite having a lead, something that plagued Liverpool often last season. The specter of dropped points against Crystal Palace, against Roy Hodgson, when the gap with Manchester City is still uncomfortably narrow and City are facing the worst side in the division tomorrow.

But it ain't over yet. And fortune continues to favor the good. And Mohamed Salah continues to be in the right place at the right time. Sustained possession, Fabinho wide to Milner, but his byline cross too close to Speroni. But! Speroni – 37 and making his first start in 13 months – tips it up rather than out. But! Mohamed Salah is on hand to jam it in from an actual inch out, most likely going over the line for an own goal anyway but let's not take chances here.

Phew.

It looks like we're done here when Mané finally finishes one of Liverpool's multiple fast breaks, slamming in from a wide angle in the 93rd minute, but there are no easy minutes today. Not when James Milner's been sent off a few minutes before because a second yellow on Zaha – who tormented the stand-in right back whenever given the chance. Not when we're finishing with ten men, with Adam Lallana in central midfield and with Firmino then debutant Rafa Camacho as replacement right-backs.

Not when we're emulating last season's Liverpool.

So we're left to sweat and shake and swear when Max Meyer scores in the final minute of injury time, with a right-flank cross into Wickham laid off perfectly, substitute to substitute. We're sweating and shaking and swearing as we play past the 95th minute, with the game ending on van Aanholt's shot from distance, sent gratefully into the stands rather than the back of the net.

But then we're celebrating again, as we've done in the vast majority of matches this season. Because Liverpool's won again, not in the way we've become accustomed to, but as hearteningly and necessarily as every win's been this season.

For all faults, for any faults, this Liverpool team does not stop. And that alone – no matter the talent and no matter the fortune – makes them different than any other Liverpool side in recent memory.

22 August 2018

Visualized: Liverpool 2-0 Crystal Palace

Previous Match Infographics: West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



Did you get worried late on?


Liverpool are up by one. Just one. And that one came from a penalty, Salah barely fouled – but fouled nonetheless – as Sakho unnecessarily sticks a leg in just before halftime.

And it's stayed at one, for the next 45 minutes. Salah's missed the target with five of his six shots – four blocked, one well off-target. Firmino's registered just one effort, wild and nowhere close in the 87th minute, playing far deeper than usual. Liverpool have put a succession of late chances on-target, Liverpool have a man-advantage with Wan-Bissaka sent off, but it's getting to the deep breaths panic stage where just one bad thing needs to happen. And has before.


And now Crystal Palace have a corner, after Liverpool just about clear an unnecessary free kick, van Dijk's header up and behind. And it's the 93rd minute. And we've all been here before.

You shouldn't have been worried. 

Virgil van Dijk rises highest to head away Milivojevic's corner. Straight to Salah. Salah and Mané are running, Salah's pass splits McArthur and van Aanholt, and Mané's away, Mané's through on goal, Mané evades van Aanholt and rounds Hennessey and it's a tap-in, it's 2-0, it's a Liverpool win.

Liverpool finally take advantage of one of the counter-attacks they'd be threatening, a similar move as to the one which saw Wan-Bissaka's red card. 

Incidentally, it was nice to see Liverpool score at the end of both halves. I suspect you remember last season, when Liverpool conceded more than they scored in the last minute of each half. Which is part of the reason why were were worried.


And the story of the match is, surprisingly enough, Liverpool's defense. Don't get me wrong; Liverpool weren't bad in attack. Liverpool are rarely bad in attack. Four clear-cut chances on Palace's ground, with two scored. Six shots and four key passes in a "bad" Salah performance, as well as an assist, a penalty won, and the run for Wan-Bissaka's dismissal. Mané again scoring, for the fourth match in a row against Crystal Palace, Mané again one of Liverpool's most creative players.

Virgil van Dijk's clearing header to start Liverpool's second was symptomatic of the center-back's performance.



Passing, clearances, aerial duels, etc. etc. etc.

Van Dijk absolutely dominated Benteke, who's given Liverpool all sorts of problems in the past, removed in the 70th minute and seemingly happy to have been.


But it wasn't just van Dijk. It was his center-back partner as well, with Gomez again belying both age and experience, often the defender most responsible for tracking Zaha. It was Alexander-Arnold on the right, where Liverpool's interceptions are clustered, where Crystal Palace routinely looked to play in Zaha, aided by both Gomez and Milner. It was Keïta, Milner, and Robertson leading the side in tackles. It was Alisson as well, even if not frequently called upon, there when needed to save, claim, and organize. And distribute from the back.




Liverpool haven't yet conceded in this season's two matches – the only Premier League club that can say so – and Liverpool haven't yet allowed a single opposition clear-cut chance. Palace did have a couple of quasi-frightening moments, but two came from well outside the box – Andros Townsend off the crossbar from his "spot" and Milivojevic's free kick saved by Alisson – as well as one offside set play header that Alisson saved anyway.

Both West Ham and Crystal Palace totaled around 0.5 xG in each match. Liverpool had 3.7 xG against West Ham and 2.4 xG plus a penalty at Palace.

This is the first time that Liverpool have held Crystal Palace scoreless on their own ground in this match-up in the league since 1997. 

I was not kidding when I said this might be Liverpool's hardest match outside the top six and Everton. I fully expect Palace to finish in the top 10, if not eighth at worst. They are the type of side who's hurt Liverpool in the past, with that deep, organized defense – look how many of Palace's tackles and interceptions came in or just outside of the penalty box – and with players like Zaha and Benteke on the counter-attack.

And Liverpool won, if not comfortably than at least thoroughly and deservedly. Liverpool won without the attack anywhere near its best, even if there were still the consistent signs of potency and threat, especially in Liverpool's transitions as the match went on. Liverpool won this match more because of its organization and defense, which is something we've rarely said in recent seasons.

It's still very early, but there's more than a bit of "uh oh, Happy learned how to putt" starting to arise here.

19 August 2018

Liverpool at Crystal Palace 08.20.18

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.31.18
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.19.17
1-2 Palace (h) 04.23.17
4-2 Liverpool (h) 10.29.16

Last match:
Liverpool: 4-0 West Ham (h)
Palace: 2-0 Fulham (a)

Referee: Michael Oliver (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

This will be a far tougher test than last week.

Liverpool had to work for both narrow victories last season – a 1-0 slog and 2-1 comeback. In earlier seasons, Palace punished Liverpool at least once a season.

Palace have players who've punished Liverpool in the past, Palace have players capable of punishing Liverpool now. I doubt Christian Benteke goes through last season's horror finishing again in this. Hennessey has stood on his head in previous meetings, making multiple saves he'd no right to make. And Wilfred Zaha and Schlupp down Liverpool's left will ask far more of Alexander-Arnold and Gomez than West Ham did, especially Zaha, who remains one of the best players in the league outside the top six.

Palace were far better than their league place last season suggests, and they finished 11th, firmly mid-table without the threat of relegation for the final few months. If not for a ghastly, unlucky first few months which saw Frank de Boer fired, they'd have finished a few places higher.

Palace are the type of side that's troubled Liverpool in the past – capable of defending deep and solid then counter-attacking at pace, both up the wings and long to Benteke. Set plays toward Benteke and the central defenders, free kicks from Milivojevic. It's a very Roy Hodgson side. And Roy Hodgson loves doing things to Liverpool, whether as opposition manager or Liverpool manager.

Both sides should line up as they did last week. Matip's back in training, but Gomez seems likely to keep his place. There's a reasonable chance that Henderson comes in for either Milner or Wijnaldum, but I'm not sure which. It's still too soon for Fabinho. Otherwise, this Liverpool side's already basically formed and – aside from the center-backs – fully fit.

As is Crystal Palace. Maybe summer-signing Kouyate comes in for McArthur, but otherwise, they are what they are. 4-4-2. The XI which beat upstart Fulham a week ago should be the XI tomorrow. Hennessey; Wan-Bissaka, Tomkins, Sakho, van Aanholt; Townsend, Milivojevic, McArthur, Schlupp; Benteke, Zaha.

Zaha and Benteke as the focal points. Diligent destroyers in midfield, even if that underrates Milivojevic. Surprisingly competent at the back – because that's what Hodgson does – especially with Wan-Bissaka's improvement; like Alexander-Arnold, a young academy graduate full-back whose play belies his years. The other summer additions aren't likely to start: it's too soon for Max Meyer, Hennessey's performance should see him stay ahead of Vincente Guaita, and Jordan Ayew's more for attacking depth than the first XI.

There are ways for Palace to win this, or at least snatch a draw. This might well be Liverpool's toughest fixture outside the top six and Everton.

But if the last season's proven anything, it's that we shouldn't worry about the opposition. We should worry about what Liverpool do to that opposition. And it's usually a lot. Liverpool are still Liverpool. Liverpool still have that defense, midfield, and – most importantly – that front three. No matter that it's the second match of the season, and a surprisingly difficult one. If Liverpool play to their potential, Liverpool can beat almost anyone.

Both sides have scored in every meeting at Selhurst Park since Palace came back into the Premier League in 2013-14. Six matches since, finishing 3-3, 1-3, 2-1, 2-1, 4-2, and 2-1. There are goals in this fixture, for each team.

I like matches with goals. Because Liverpool are usually better than the opposition at getting goals.

02 April 2018

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Crystal Palace

Previous Match Infographics: Watford (h), United (a), Porto (h), Newcastle (h), West Ham (h), Porto (a), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), Huddersfield (a), Swansea (a), Manchester City (h), Everton (h), Burnley (a), Leicester (a), Swansea (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (a), West Brom (h), Everton (h), Spartak Moscow (h), Brighton (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



(Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

"I hate when Liverpool play against ex-Liverpool players." - Me, loads of times

Christian Benteke: two clear-cut chances off-target with the score at 1-1
Mamadou Sakho: a defensive error leading to Liverpool's winner

I might have to reevaluate the above theorem. And jokes aside, that was kind of the difference in this match.

When Liverpool's players made mistakes, Liverpool usually survived.

When Crystal Palace had chances to profit from of Liverpool's mistakes, Palace either couldn't or didn't aside from a 13th-minute penalty, or Liverpool did enough in defense to cover.

When Crystal Palace's players made mistakes, Liverpool had the players to punish them.

When Liverpool's players had clear-cut chances in front of goal, Liverpool scored. And aside from Milivojevic's penalty, Palace didn't.

Crystal Palace, bless their hearts, tried to do to Liverpool what Manchester United did to Liverpool three weeks ago. United took full advantage of Lukaku's aerial prowess, Liverpool's high line, and a left-winger's pace against Alexander-Arnold, with Rashford twice scoring from Lukaku's flick-ons in the first quarter of the game. And those two early goals ended up to be enough to see out the win. For as much as we like to criticize Hodgson – honestly, after 2010-11, we deserve that right – he is not a stupid man. That was, after all, Liverpool's only loss in the previous nine matches.

So, on Saturday, in the eighth minute: Cabaye over the top to Zaha, inside of Alexander-Arnold and in behind the rest of Liverpool's defense, the clear-cut chance thankfully denied by Karius.

In the 12th minute: a goal kick flicked on by Benteke to Zaha, inside of Alexander-Arnold and in behind the rest of Liverpool's defense, taken out by Loris Karius with the resulting penalty aced by Milivojevic.

Long balls. A very, very fast left-winger up against Alexander-Arnold and a big lump of a striker in aerial duels against Liverpool's center-backs. And at least one goal. Deja vu all over again. If not for Karius, it's potentially a two-goal deficit, as it was at Manchester United.

But that was the last of it from Palace, at least for the rest of the half. They didn't have another shot for the next 45 minutes. Part of it was a very Hodgson "we just protect this," but Liverpool did well to limit Zaha's touches in dangerous positions, with just four in Liverpool's half: three unsuccessful touches and a lay-off back into Palace's half. Benteke's few flick-ons weren't finding other attackers, and van Dijk even charged into that side of the pitch to win a few aerial duels – unlike against United.

Yet Liverpool still couldn't find an equalizer. 10 shots from Palace's goal until halftime, with five blocked by a deep Hodgson defense trying to hold what it had, with four on-target but fairly easily saved.

But then, four minutes into the second half. Sadio Mané presses Mamadou Sakho into a mistake, dispossessing him just outside the box. Mané to Salah to Milner to Firmino to Milner, well centered through two defenders to Mané, who'd drifted inside an unaware Sakho just outside the six-yard box.

Alright, here we go. You can't stop the bum rush.

Not so fast.

But, despite some good football – especially from Alexander-Arnold down the right – Liverpool had zero shots between the 52nd and 82nd minutes with the score still level.

But Palace nearly scored twice. Palace should have scored twice, set up by Liverpool both times. Milner's clearance intercepted by Milijovejic, fortunately redirected to Townsend, headed to an open Benteke. Van Dijk's attempt to control a hoof forward is a failure, and Townsend steals and Townsend's away and Benteke's set up. And Benteke misses both. Badly. In little more than a minute.

But Liverpool's attempted game-changing subs had to be immediately changed, with Lallana injured within minutes of coming on, with Liverpool switching to a barely-familiar 3-5-2 rather than bringing on Danny Ings.

But Liverpool still won, because hey, there's Mohamed Salah. There's Oxlade-Chamberlain's storm down the right and cross between three defenders to an open Robertson, with Palace out of position because Townsend's caught up field and Wan-Bissaka's ignorant of Robertson's advance. There's Robertson's smart center towards Firmino and Salah rather than a speculative volley at goal. And there's Mohamed Salah, taking advantage of Sakho caught flat-footed and falling, controlling beautifully in little space to make a right-footed finish look so easy.

You can't stop the bum rush.

Mohamed Salah gets the headlines again, but this was much more The Sadio Mané Match. For both better and worse.

• He headed Van Dijk's set-play effort wide immediately before Palace's goal
• He picked up a yellow card for diving when he could have won a penalty
• He had a goal rightfully ruled out for offside
• He scored the equalizer
• He somehow avoided a second yellow when handling after failing to win a free kick just outside Liverpool's penalty box

He had an eventful 64 minutes, to say the least.

The above average position map is telling. Mané's the furthest forward, as Salah usually is. Salah, forced into a slightly deeper role because of the need to watch both Zaha and van Aanholt, becomes Liverpool's most creative front-three attacker. Even though Firmino leads the side in shots, Mané's at the end of Liverpool's most-promising moments: the header wide, the penalty shout, the offside decision, another set-play header well saved, the equalizer.

Even though his day could – and probably should – have ended differently, Mané put Liverpool into the position to come back from the early deficit. And Salah – with a little help from his friends – made the most of it.

Those are the small margins. A referee's decision to not send off Karius or not send off Mané or not give a penalty that yeah okay maybe could have been given even if Mané over-egged the pudding. Two clear-cut chances missed versus two taken. A defensive error seized upon versus at least one – by Opta's definition, at least – that wasn't.

And so the story ends as we've thankfully seen a few times this season. 2-1 Leicester, 2-1 Burnley, 2-1 Everton – three consecutive matches around the turn of the New Year.

Liverpool may not be at its best, and Liverpool may do some actual bad things, but Liverpool grind it out. Liverpool grind it out despite set-backs and then Liverpool win it late.

Because Liverpool have Sadio Mané and Liverpool have Mohamed Salah and all too often this season, Liverpool simply have more talent than you at the sharp end of the pitch. Liverpool know they have that talent, and Liverpool will ensure you know they have that talent, and by the end of 90 minutes, that talent will show through.

21 August 2017

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Crystal Palace

Previous Match Infographics: Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored and Liverpool FC



For all the talk of a new Crystal Palace, of Frank de Boer wanting his side to play football, that was about as deep a defense as Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool have seen. Very much a five-man backline, with both Ward and van Aanholt rarely out of their own half. Only five sides have had less possession in a league match against Klopp's Liverpool than Palace did – 0-2 Burnley (a), 5-1 Hull (h), 2-0 Sunderland (h), 2-3 Swansea (h), 3-0 Boro (h); all in 2016-17. Only two sides have made more interceptions against Klopp's Liverpool in a league match – Aston Villa, in Liverpool's 6-0 home romp, and Leicester, when Liverpool lost 0-2, both in February 2016, both wanting little more than to keep Liverpool out, one successful, one very much not so – and all but one of Palace's interceptions in their own half. Only four sides have taken fewer than four shots against Klopp's Liverpool: 4-0 Everton (h) in 2015-16, and 0-2 Burnley (a), 5-1 Hull (h), and 0-0 Southampton (a) in 2016-17.

So, yes, yet again, Liverpool had to deal with a deep defense. And Liverpool struggled against a deep defense. Liverpool had to grind out a win against that deep defense without ever looking fluent. Liverpool are thankful that Tomkins and Benteke missed excellent chances, from a set play and from a long ball, in the 9th and 55th minutes.

But it was a much-changed Liverpool XI, with five alterations from the line-up in the first two fixtures. But Liverpool took 23 shots, nine more than they had in each of the first two fixtures. But Liverpool put 13 of them on-target. But Liverpool created multiple decent opportunities – few, but two clear-cut in the first half, both via crosses from the excellent Andrew Robertson, then increasingly more and more in the second half, especially after the substitutions and Mané's game-winner.

Incidentally, Sadio Mané has now scored the opening goal in his last three Premier League appearances. 3-1 Everton, 3-3 Watford, and 1-0 Palace.

Nonetheless, 10 of those 23 Liverpool shots came from outside the box. 15 came in the final 35 minutes, with seven after Liverpool finally scored (including six of the 13 on-target). As Andrew Beasley noted, Liverpool scored at least three goals in the three previous matches since 2008-09 where they put 13 shots on-target. Liverpool's xG per shot at Watford was around 0.13 when not including the penalty. It was 0.11 at Hoffenheim. It was 0.09 against Palace.

Liverpool had shots and Liverpool had some good chances – which is good! – but still needed a Palace error, a fortunate break of the ball, and Mané's individual brilliance to win the match. Liverpool kept its first clean sheet of the campaign and Liverpool held the opponents to a dismal shot total, with three new starters in the back line – which is good – but needed those two aforementioned bad misses to win the match.

It remains very, very early, but I'm inclined to continue to complain most about Liverpool's midfield.

10 of Liverpool's outfield players created at least one chance. It was fairly evenly split – most players just one, except Robertson with three (all in the first half), and both Firmino and Gomez with two. The three who didn't create anything? Wijnaldum, Milner, and Lovren – the latter only playing the four minutes of second half injury time.

That is a dire lack of creativity from Liverpool's two advanced central midfielders. Milner's inability, despite completing 100 passes, is one thing, and obviously concerning. But Wijnaldum's inability, despite playing a bit further forward, combined with only 28 attempted passes in 71 minutes despite Liverpool's 73% possession, is even more concerning.

Might as well break out the passing wheel again.


Four completed forward passes: two from his own half, and two short to Robertson on the flank. Six completed passes in the final third, all short and all sideways.

But even more infuriating than the passes played was his utter lack of involvement. Sturridge and Mignolet were the only Liverpool players to make fewer touches, and had Sturridge played 10 more minutes, as Wijnaldum did, he'd probably have surpassed the midfielder.

In three matches, a little more than 250 minutes played, Wijnaldum's had 127 touches. Andrew Robertson had 134 on Saturday. Wijnaldum's made one key pass in these three matches – spread wide for Salah's off-target shot early in the second half at Watford. He's taken four shots – two in each league match. At Watford, both came late, off-target and blocked. Against Palace – he probably could and should have scored, whether with the well-hit shot on-target from distance or when lingering on the ball before getting an effort blocked with his last touch of the match.

This midfield – without Coutinho for the rest of the month at best, without Lallana for the next three or four months, with Woodburn yet to be integrated as one of the creative hubs – cannot abide by passengers. Wijnaldum hasn't been the only disappointment in this area, but Wijnaldum has been little more than a passenger through all three fixtures so far. Irrelevancy is more infuriating than inferiority.

But as said in the match review, right now, just enough is good enough. Improvement's been necessary in all three phases – midfield, attack, and defense – through all three fixtures so far, but we at least got some improvement in the latter two on Saturday. Mané continues to Mané, Salah and Solanke made massive differences off the bench, Robertson impressed on his debut, Gomez did well in his first league start in almost two years, and Klavan and Matip looked more secure than Lovren and Matip in the first two games, against a player who often causes Liverpool fits.

And Liverpool won, against opposition they hadn't beaten at home in each of the previous three seasons. More, much more, will be needed, but that'll do for now.

19 August 2017

Liverpool 1-0 Crystal Palace

Goals:
Mané 73'

Just enough is good enough.

Of course, it was too close for comfort. Of course, we really would like and need Liverpool to be better and more coherent, especially in midfield.

But Liverpool made five changes, needing to rotate the side with injuries and fixtures already accruing at too fast a rate. I mean, just look at that starting XI. Robertson's debut, Joe Gomez's first league start since October 2015, Klavan partnering Matip, Milner's second league start in midfield since the beginning of last season.

But, after suffering for the first hour, Liverpool finally made necessary substitutions, with Salah for Sturridge and Solanke for Wijnaldum – and a switch to something like a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 – improving the side immensely.

But Liverpool more than quintupled Palace's shot total. Liverpool had three times as many shots on-target as Palace had shots. Crystal Palace's last shot came in the 55th minute. Liverpool took 15 shots – even if that total only included one goal – after that.

But Liverpool finally scored.

But Liverpool never conceded.

But Liverpool ground out a necessary win against the type of opposition who's given them so many problems over the last season and a bit more. Against a club that's given them so many problems in recent season.

But the home side hadn't won this fixture since Palace beat Liverpool on their own ground in November 2014. Liverpool hadn't beaten Palace at Anfield since October 2013; you know, the season they almost won the league. Liverpool hadn't kept a Premier League clean sheet against Crystal Palace since December 1997, 12 matches before this one.

But three points. And that's really all that matters.

So, yes, Liverpool weren't good in that first half. Liverpool's midfield – for the third straight match – was actually bad; or, at the very nicest, uncreative. Andrew Robertson was the only player creating anything of note. Once again, the match featured Liverpool running headlong into all those deep defenders and failing to break through them.

The 55th minute was the turning point. The second half had started the same as the first. Lots of possession, a couple of speculative shots from distance, and Liverpool seemingly no closer to finding the breakthrough. And then, what had been the sucker punch in far too many fixtures. One long ball forward. Loftus-Cheek beating Klavan far too easily, to the byline, and a cut-back to a wide-open Benteke eight yards out, with Matip in no-man's land and Gomez struggling to catch up.

And the player who'd scored seven goals in his eight matches against Liverpool skied his sitter.

Not long after, Salah replaced Sturridge, and Liverpool incrementally kicked up the gears in attack. Not long after that, Solanke replaced Wijnaldum, and Liverpool kicked them up a bit more. It was a revolutionary idea: the midfield and individual midfielders aren't playing well, so play fewer of them.

And not long after that – two minutes, in fact – Liverpool finally made the breakthrough. Once again, it's Sadio Mané. Once again, it's both a bit of fortune, a bit of talent, and a bit of individual brilliance. Another attempt to quickly link through the final third. Solanke causing trouble with his strength, Mané determined enough and clever enough to continue his run, Liverpool lucky that Milivojevic's touch was poor, and Mané quick enough and talented enough to finally beat Hennessey.

While we're all traumatized and expect the worst and probably rightfully so, Palace had no response. Their solution was to throw Scott Dann forward with Benteke and hoof more long balls. And Liverpool dealt with it just fine. No Palace shots, no Palace threats. Meanwhile, Hennessey needed to deny Salah (twice), Firmino, Solanke, and Robertson in the final ten minutes to keep the scoreline at 1-0.

So, yes, that'll absolutely do, pig. There are still real, discernible problems, problems with we've all screamed about already this season. There's still so much more improvement needed, and there are still transfers which need to be done.

But this early in the season, with this lineup, against this opposition, a win, any win is sufficient.

18 August 2017

Liverpool v Crystal Palace 08.19.17

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Palace (h) 04.23.17
4-2 Liverpool (a) 10.29.16
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.06.16
2-1 Palace (h) 11.08.15

Last matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Hoffenheim (a); 3-3 Watford (a)
Palace: 0-3 Huddersfield (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino, Mané, Salah 1
Palace: n/a

Referee: Kevin Friend (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Trent A-A Matip Lovren Moreno
Wijnaldum Henderson Can
Salah Firmino Mané

It's hard to see where any changes to the starting XI might come. Sturridge is fit again, but I highly doubt Liverpool want to mess with that front three, the only phase that's been without complaints so far this short season.

There's not much to be done in defense, at least personnel-wise. Clyne's still injured and Alexander-Arnold's done fine. More than fine for 89:30 of 90 minutes against Hoffenheim. Lovren and Matip have each had their issues, but are still probably a better idea than bringing in Klavan or Gomez. Left-back is where Liverpool could make a change, but Moreno hasn't been the problem area in the defensive unit, holding up well despite being target by both Watford and Hoffenheim.

I am, however, tempted to suggest changes in midfield, with Milner replacing Henderson – as happened for the last half-hour against Hoffenheim. It didn't show in preseason, but the first two games suggest something's not right with Liverpool's captain. But even still, without Coutinho and Lallana, with Woodburn not even named in the squad after understudying in the position throughout preseason, Liverpool have a desperate lack of creativity in the center of the pitch. There's a chance Milner helps with that, at least compared to Henderson, with Can moving deeper. At least with this match being at Anfield, Gini Wijnaldum may actually play.

Unless, of course, Liverpool changes are forced. Both Mané and Can appeared to miss training on Thursday, at least according to the training pictures released by the club. But I'm not necessarily sure we can divine absences from official club pictures. It's not as if the club will also announce injuries, but this still feels as if we're reading tea leaves here. Still, if they're both missing, we're getting Sturridge, Solanke or Origi up front with Firmino on the left, and Milner, Henderson, and Wijnaldum in midfield. Which is *shrugs*.

And regardless of who's available for the hosts, Liverpool will be facing a side with a point to prove, a side that will probably play the type of style which has hurt Liverpool in the past, and a side that's bedeviled them over the last few seasons.

Palace were absolutely rinsed by Huddersfield last week, a 0-3 loss at home not flattering the promoted side in the slightest. Huddersfield's crosses – both open and set play, both high and low – punished Palace, while Palace were wasteful – Zaha denied on a glorious chance from a long ball and flick-on, Benteke errant on a couple of trademark chances. Well, Liverpool won't attack Palace as Huddersfield attacked Palace, and Benteke is rarely errant when facing Liverpool.

I suspect Palace will stick with the same 3-4-2-1 formation we saw against Huddersfield as well, despite the result. Something like Hennessey; Fosu-Mensah, Dann, Riedewald; Ward, Puncheon, Milivojevic, van Aanholt; Loftus-Cheek, Townsend; Benteke.

Wilfred Zaha will be a massive miss for Palace, while Bakary Sako's also out. Cabaye, McArthur, Wickham, and Souare are doubtful. If available, there seems a small chance that Cabaye starts rather than Townsend.

I had almost forgotten that these sides met in Hong Kong a month ago. Liverpool's 2-0 win, with second-half goals from Solanke and Origi, was good for preparation but not for precedent.

When the fixtures have actually counted, Palace have won each of their last three matches at Anfield: 1-2, 1-2, and 1-3. The away side, whether Palace or Liverpool, have won the last six meetings. And, probably more notably given what we've complained about over the last couple of weeks, Liverpool haven't kept a clean sheet against Palace in the last 13 fixtures, since a 0-0 draw in the FA Cup way back in 2003.

When the fixtures have actually counted, Christian Benteke's run riot against Liverpool, with seven goals in eight appearances, including both of those scored in last April's loss. Five of those seven goals have come at Anfield. And, of course, I'll remind that his winner last April came from a Crystal Palace corner.

Liverpool know what Liverpool have to do. Better than they did at Watford, in attack, midfield, and defense. They'll need to do it when missing key players, they'll need to do it with a more important fixture lurking next Wednesday. And, as against Watford, they'll need to do it against a side and in a situation where they've disappointed far too often.

25 April 2017

Visualized: Liverpool 1-2 Crystal Palace

Previous Match Infographics: West Brom (a), Stoke (a), Bournemouth (h), Everton (h), Manchester City (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Leicester (a), Tottenham (h), Hull (a), Chelsea (h), Swansea (h), Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.




You can survive a stupid defense with an all-conquering attack, as we saw throughout the first half of the season. You can survive a stuttering attack with a competent defense, as we saw at West Brom last week, as well as more than a few matches against Liverpool's Top 7 peers.

You cannot survive weakness at both ends of the pitch. Or games like Sunday's will turn into results like Sunday's. It is a lot easier to ignore Liverpool's defensive frailties – seemingly no matter who's playing, even if this is the first time that Liverpool's lost when both Matip and Lovren start – or Lovren's hilarity or etc etc when Liverpool score three, four, five.

Liverpool aren't scoring three, four, five with Mané, Lallana, Henderson, Sturridge, and Ings absent. Liverpool may still be top scorers in the division, but they sure haven't looked it lately. And squad depth, injuries, etc are an enormous reason why.

So it's probably fitting that this is the nadir. A season-low in shot accuracy – 7.14%, one on-target from 14 in total – the lowest shooting accuracy in a match since Klopp joined Liverpool, and just the third time that Klopp's Liverpool have posted only one shot on-target in a match, after 1-0 v City on New Year's Eve, where Liverpool shut it down after an early goal, and 0-2 at Newcastle last season, which was hilariously bad for multiple reasons. No open play shots on-target, with the lone coming from Coutinho's direct free kick.

Since Liverpool's 1-1 draw at Manchester City six matches ago, Liverpool have had ten clear-cut chances, scoring five. 1.67 per match, 50% conversion. Liverpool's opponents have had 16, scoring seven, 2.67 per match with 43.8% conversion. Prior, Liverpool averaged 2.0 per match with 58.9% conversion. Their opponents averaged 1.21 per match with 55.9% conversion.


Imagine if Simon Mignolet hadn't saved three clear-cut chances against Stoke and West Brom.

You cannot survive weakness at both ends of the pitch.

So, yeah, there's Liverpool's increasing inability to score, to create clear-cut chances, to put shots on-target. There's still Liverpool's inability to break down deep, packed defenses. And there's still Liverpool's defending, especially against sides who want nothing more than counter-attacks and set plays.

And there's Christian Benteke, who did for Crystal Palace what he did for Aston Villa far, far too often.



Hell, even if Benteke never played – *looks at Liverpool's injury list* Narrator: "He would have played." – Liverpool should have kept him just so he can't do this. I know sample size remains an important thing but still. Benteke's scoring and shot accuracy against Liverpool is unconscionable, and he's been doing it since 2012-13, whether facing Skrtel, Agger, Carragher, Toure, Lovren, Sakho, or Matip.

So, once again, we've seen this story before, but somehow made even worse.

Another dismal performance against one of teams currently sitting between 12th and 18th, where all six of Liverpool's losses this season have come from. The lowest shooting accuracy of the season. More points dropped despite taking a 1-0 lead. A weakened XI, an inexperienced bench, an inability to change proceedings. Only seven shots allowed, but two high-value clear-cut chances conceded, both scored. Two goals conceded that shouldn't have been conceded – from a cross and from a set play – with an obvious scapegoat for both. Both goals scored by an ex-Liverpool player.

And all this with just four matches left to play, making the necessary Champions League qualification exponentially harder.

23 April 2017

Liverpool 1-2 Crystal Palace

Goals:
Coutinho 21'
Benteke 42' 74'

Back to the bad old days. So much for the resiliency shown in the two previous wins, so much for the seven-game unbeaten run.

Par for the awful course from start to finish, for better and worse.

Patient, almost acceptable, almost decent, but basically unthreatening from the opening whistle, tons of possession but few chances. Then, as against West Brom, Liverpool score a well-taken set play goal, this time earlier in the first half, this time from Coutinho. A set play that he single-handedly won, then his second direct free kick of the season, the first time a Liverpool player's scored two direct free kicks in the Premier League since both Suarez and Gerrard did it in 2013-14.

Decent but unthreatening play continues, but not the needed second goal, with Liverpool limited to one mis-hit Can chance. The opposition rightfully assesses that the same will suffice, keep it tight and wait for Liverpool to Liverpool. And Liverpool Liverpools. One over-the-top hopeful pass. Lovren insanely charges into nowhere, leaving Cabaye able to turn into space, Matip caught in two minds, and Clyne futilely chasing Benteke. A well-hit cross, a tap-in, just minutes before half-time.

We saw all of the archetypal stages of a 2017 Liverpool match against anyone outside the Top 7.

1) Everything could be better but is basically okay
2) Hey, that was good, everything might not be bad!
3) *One opposition pass, or a set play, or a mistake unlocks Liverpool's defense*
4) Welp, we're boned

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Liverpool had a little flurry to start the second half, but sound and fury signifying nothing, almost all from Philippe Coutinho. Wonderful footwork to create space just outside the box, but a left-footed effort fired far over. A run into and through the box, but a penalty not given when he stayed on his feet after Martin Kelly clipped his ankle and his close-range shot blocked by Tomkins. A header from Clyne's dangerous cross hitting Origi, although it would've been off-target anyway.

And then the decline and then the collapse. A frustrated Liverpool continues to run headlong into a brick wall and fails to bust through it. Liverpool create just one chance for the next 20 minutes: Firmino from a very wide angle pulled wide of the far post.

And Liverpool Liverpools, again. Dejan Lovren does Dejan Lovren, again: giving the ball away with a dumb pass out of defense then charging in and missing the tackle, putting Townsend through on goal, rescued by Milner's tackle. Liverpool's set play marking does Liverpool's set play marking, again: Firmino misses his clearance at the near post, players are caught static as the ball sails through the six-yard box, an opposition player reacts first for a tap-in. Benteke. Again.

And Liverpool have no response, because Plan A isn't working and the bench has an average age of 19, the outfield players available being Woodburn, Alexander-Arnold, Grujic, Gomez, Rhian Brewster, and Old Man Alberto Moreno. Alexander-Arnold, Moreno, and Grujic come on. Liverpool's formation becomes a 3 - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. There are a couple of shots, but none worth mentioning and none anywhere near on-target.

And Liverpool lose. For, to be fair, just the second time at Anfield this season. But also, for the sixth time in 13 matches against sides currently sitting 12th-18th. Five wins, two draws, and six losses – 1.31 PPG – against teams who currently have between 31 and 38 points. Liverpool have 66. Liverpool should have at least ten more.

To recap:

It is the seventh time that Liverpool have failed to win after taking a 1-0 lead.

Liverpool failed to put a single open play shot on-target today. They've put all of three on-target in the last two matches: two from set plays leading to two goals and a slow roller from Origi from outside the box. Three on-target. One from open play. From 29 shots in total.

Both goals were avoidable and stupidly allowed, and there's a definite scapegoat involved in both. And ex-Liverpool player Christian Benteke scored both of them.

This is Sam Allardyce's first league win at Anfield at the 14th time of asking.

It's Crystal Palace's third consecutive win at Anfield. No side's beaten Liverpool three-in-a-row at Anfield since Chelsea did it from 2003-2005.

And now, Champions League qualification's arguably out of Liverpool's hands. Both City and United can catch Liverpool with their games in-hand, despite facing each other this Thursday.

And if Liverpool don't qualify for the Champions League, this season is a failure.

22 April 2017

Liverpool v Crystal Palace 04.23.17

11:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
4-2 Liverpool (a) 10.29.16
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.06.16
2-1 Palace (h) 11.08.15
3-1 Palace (h) 05.16.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 West Brom (a); 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-2 Bournemouth (a)
Palace: 2-2 Leicester (h); 3-0 Arsenal (h); 1-3 Southampton (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 13; Firmino 11; Coutinho 9; Lallana, Milner 7; Origi 6; Wijnaldum 5; Can 4; Lovren, Sturridge 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Palace: Benteke 12; Zaha 6; McArthur 5; Cabaye 4; Dann, Tomkins, Townsend 3; Wickham 2; Campbell, Ledley, Milivojevic, van Aanholt 1

Referee: Andre Marriner (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Gomez Lovren Milner
Wijnaldum Lucas Can
Firmino Origi Coutinho

This is the song that doesn't end. Yes, it goes on and on, my friend.

So, in addition to Mané, Henderson, Lallana, Ings, etc., Matip, Klavan, and Lucas are all questionable with minor muscle injuries. That's two center-backs (two-and-a-half if we're being generous), three central midfielders, a would-have-been-helpful back-up striker, and Liverpool's best attacker.

Fantastic. As if we needed more evidence that Liverpool's squad is insanely shallow.

I can't even really begin to guess how Liverpool would line-up with Lucas missing from a midfield already without Henderson and Lallana, hence the above predicted XI. 3-4-3, with just Wijnaldum and Can, would be an option if more center-backs were fit. Please no Milner in midfield, not after that first half at Stoke. Maybe 4-4-2 with both Sturridge and Origi up top? Maybe Coutinho drops into the three with Woodburn or Alexander-Arnold in attack? Alexander-Arnold has also played in central midfield for the u23s. Grujic could be an option, although I remain wary of a player who's barely featured all season, even if he's making the bench these days. Kevin Stewart hasn't even made the bench in almost two months, and hasn't played in a league match since September.

As for the center-backs, Matip's at least seemingly most likely of the doubtful. Which would be helpful. But Joe Gomez, even without almost any playing time with the first team due to another lengthy injury, might not be the worst idea given his strength and speed. There's a reasonable argument that he'd be far better suited to face Benteke than either Klavan or Lucas.

Crystal Palace are all but safe, seven points and substantial goal difference ahead of the relegation zone. That wasn't the case a little more than month ago, barely clinging onto 17th ahead of Hull and Boro, in the bottom three as recently as the end of February. But that's what happens when you win five of your last seven, including victories at Chelsea and against Arsenal. Allardyce will, of course, take full and total credit for their rejuvenation, but a center-back named Mamadou Sakho (*shrugs quizzically*) has been a key part – the winning streak beginning upon his entrance into the starting XI – and he's ineligible tomorrow. And they're also missing his back-up, Scott Dann, through injury.

Hennessey; Ward, Kelly, Tomkins, van Aanholt; Cabaye, Milivojevic; Zaha, Puncheon, Townsend; Benteke. Delaney could come into defense rather than Tomkins, Schlupp has been starting at left-back recently but van Aanholt's fit again, and Allardyce could try to pack the midfield with McArthur or Ledley rather than Puncheon or Townsend.

Because Crystal Palace will Allardyce. Strong in the center, no matter absentees, combative in midfield, fast on the flanks, counters and crosses. I am obviously most worried by the former Liverpool players involved, not only top scorer Christian Benteke – who LOVES playing against Liverpool – but even Martin Kelly, now (correctly) used more often at center-back. But Wilfried Zaha's become the centerpiece: still only 24, by far his best season return with six goals and nine assists, adding a definitive end product to his pace and dribbling. Zaha and Benteke on the counter should absolutely terrify Liverpool. They'd terrify a full-strength Liverpool.

The last time these sides met, albeit without Sam Allardyce involved, was just dumb. Palace only took seven shots but put six on-target, with Benteke responsible for three of them, scoring twice. Liverpool twice allowed equalizers barely minutes after taking the lead, the first of which came from a hilariously horrific defensive error, the second from a too-easy Zaha cross, both from headers.

But Liverpool were scoring for fun those days, unbeaten in ten going into that match, housing Watford 6-1 after that match. And Liverpool put two more past Palace after Palace had gotten back to 2-2. Liverpool are not scoring for fun these days, reliant on defense (?!?!?!?!) and doing *just enough* in attack for recent wins over West Brom and Stoke.

That's going to be a lot harder tomorrow with all the absentees. But Liverpool have no other choice at this stage of the season. Not with the incredibly tense and tight chase for fourth. Not with just five matches remaining.

31 October 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 4-2 Crystal Palace


Previous Match Infographics: West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.

Like most everyone else, I can't help but focus on Liverpool's attack when writing about Saturday's match.

The ferocity. The understanding. The constant movement to flummox, twist, and turn defenses who want nothing more than to drop deep and stay in position.

It goes without saying that Firmino, Coutinho, and Mané's ability to pop up anywhere in the opposition half has gone a long, long way in making Liverpool such a potent side. A striker frequently in name only, a left-winger who can drop into midfield or get into the box, and a right-winger who often comes inside and gets behind the defense. And it's why Daniel Sturridge, often Liverpool's best player in the previous two seasons, can't get a league game.




It's not limited to just the front three. The midfielders, both Can and Lallana (as well as Wijnaldum when he starts), pull into positions vacated by both wingers and strikers. It's most evident in the first goal: as Coutinho cuts in and drops deep, Henderson goes forward and wide, in position to get the return pass from Moreno, while Can bombs into the box, taking up almost the same position that Coutinho scored from against West Brom.

And the clever movement between the front three was most evident in what should have been Liverpool's third goal.



Coutinho cuts across the length of the pitch in possession, eventually linking up with Firmino, who's started the move wide on the right. Meanwhile, Mané's shifting around the center of box, drifting between Dunn and Ward to find space, eventually wide-as-hell open, found by Nat Clyne, who's underlapped into the space created by Coutinho and Firmino playing wide, able to pick up possession in the box from a ricochet off a retreating defender.

There's literally no way to man-mark situations like these, and you've got to be tremendously disciplined to deal with it zonally, as Ward and Dann proved when trying to keep track of Mané.

But Liverpool can also succeed when these attackers can play their "normal" roles, seen in Liverpool's game-sealing fourth: a deep throughball from a central midfielder to a central striker beating the back four. The only switch is Mané dropping deeper and Lallana moving into the space vacated, and it's Lallana's run that's created all that space for Firmino.

It's been ten games, and the interplay is just jaw-dropping. And it's resulted in some pretty tremendous output so far. All four of Liverpool's primary attackers are averaging better than 0.50 goals+assists per 90 so far. Coutinho's not far off 1.00 on his own.



Combined, those four players are averaging more shots per 90 than 10 teams in the league and more goals per 90 than 16 teams.

Saturday saw exactly the sort of movement that Liverpool wholly lacked in the one bad result of the season, at Burnley. There, Liverpool failed to pull Burnley out of position, failed to penetrate behind the back four, and resorted to speculative efforts from distance. 17 of Liverpool's 26 shots that day came from outside the box, with only seven in the Danger Zone.

On Saturday, 12 of Liverpool's 17 shots against Crystal Palace – 71% – came in the Danger Zone, by far the highest proportion since Klopp became manager.

This is a good and fun attack and I like to watch it.

Of course, then there's the opposite end of the pitch. Liverpool failed to keep a clean sheet for the ninth time in ten matches. Liverpool conceded from the first shot on-target for the sixth time in ten matches. Liverpool twice allowed an equalizer, two minutes and 12 minutes after taking a lead, on two wholly preventable goals: one from a unbelievable-if-it-wasn't-Liverpool error, the second after Lovren lost two aerial duels and Moreno couldn't block Zaha's cross. While Liverpool are joint-top scorers in the league, they're joint-ninth in goals allowed.


But for the fifth-straight match, Liverpool faced eight or fewer shots. Palace took seven, the same as both West Brom and Manchester United. No side's taken more than 12 against Liverpool, and Liverpool's taken less than 12 just once this season (nine v Manchester United). Once Liverpool got its two-goal lead, Palace took just two shots: Zaha a minute after Firmino's goal, saved by Karius, and Puncheon from long, long range in the 86th, well off-target.

Limiting opposition shots is good and helpful. But Liverpool were also notably worse than usual in a couple of areas. Five of Palace's seven shots came in the Danger Zone. Six of Palace's seven shots were on-target. Even with few shots, that's too many shots in good positions leading to too many shots on-target for a side prone to conceding.

An 86% shot accuracy is the highest any opposition's registered since Klopp became manager; the only matches which came close were Norwich and Watford putting five of six on target last season, a 5-4 Liverpool win and 0-3 Liverpool loss respectively.

Six shots on-target are also the most Liverpool have faced in a single match this season; only West Ham (10), Swansea (9), Chelsea (7), and Leicester (6) reached that mark against Liverpool last season. Liverpool failed to win any of those games, losing three and drawing one.

Aside from the second goal, none of Palace's shots on-targets seemed especially well-placed, but at least Karius made the necessary saves. And in the routinely soul-crushing set play watch, Liverpool did okay! Three corners and two free kicks led to two shots, both on-target, both from Benteke, both in the 49th minute with Liverpool clinging to a one-goal lead. And Karius saved both, one right-footed, one header.

So it's one more tough test down. Another win in a fixture Liverpool's struggled with in the past. Liverpool still are what we thought they are, for better and worse, but it's working. Ten matches, just one loss, 23 points, level with City and Arsenal at the top of the table. A rip-roaring whirlwind attack that can do pretty much anything is doing enough to make up for a shaky, error-prone, set-play-prone, doesn't-save-enough-shots defense for the moment.

It's exhilarating, to say the absolute least, at both ends of the pitch.

29 October 2016

Liverpool 4-2 Crystal Palace

Goals:
Can 16'
McArthur 18' 33'
Lovren 21'
Matip 44'
Firmino 71'

We joke about how Liverpool might kill us all. We joke about Liverpool is Mount Everest peaks and Mariana Trench valleys; how Liverpool's attack is as good as it gets and Liverpool's defense can be as bad as it gets.

They aren't really jokes.

This was everything good and bad and Liverpool in one match, turned all the way up to 11. We're still only ten matches into the campaign, but it's getting more and more like 2013-14 with every one of them.

Liverpool look in control, Liverpool poke and poke, and within 16 minutes Liverpool score a wonderful early goal: Coutinho over the top to Moreno first time to Can, his first goal for more than eight months.

But two minutes later, Liverpool - read: Dejan Lovren - loses its mind: Lovren's wild miskicked clearance, Karius rushing out to close down, McArthur's easy header over the starfished keeper. Crystal Palace's first attack, all thanks to Liverpool. It was Liverpool's first open play goal conceded since 2-1 at Chelsea more than a month ago. It was Liverpool's first defensive error leading to a goal since 4-1 v Leicester six weeks ago.

But three minutes after that, Liverpool were back in front, courtesy of the man who cost Liverpool a goal: Lovren's bullet-header at the back post from Coutinho's corner, outmuscling his marker in atonement.

And now Liverpool are rolling, Firmino's shot blocked, Moreno's cross just over Firmino, Mané wild from distance, Moreno hitting the post from no angle. But then there's having to defend again, another "hey wait Palace are allowed to attack, where did that come from?" There's Lovren loses an aerial duel with Benteke, there's Zaha with space to cross, there's McArthur getting in front of Lovren to head past Karius.

Sigh. It's the first time Liverpool have allowed two headed goals in a match since an 0-2 loss at West Ham in January. It's the first time the same player's scored two headers against Liverpool since I don't even know when. And once again, for all the good, Liverpool are level.

But Liverpool start rolling again. Except Liverpool can't score. Coutinho has a header saved onto the post (and, evident on the third or fourth replay, handled by a defender). Mané misses a clear-cut chance, skying a soft center from eight yards. Lallana shoots across the face of goal after a wonderful combination fast break with Mané and Coutinho.

It's almost halftime and Liverpool are still somehow level. But then Liverpool gets its third corner. And Liverpool score its second goal from a corner, Matip with the freedom of London as Palace's man-marking completely falls apart, his first goal for the club. The fifth goal of the half, and the fourth from a header.

Incidentally, the last time Liverpool scored two goals from corners in the same game was March 2014, in a 6-3 at Cardiff (both Skrtel), in case you needed any more fuel for the 2013-14 comparison fire.

Okay. Liverpool had established a foothold for the third time, at a fortuitous time. Regroup at halftime, put Palace to the sword, and for the love of Fowler don't do anything stupid.

Well, at least we got two out of three.

Because Palace were assuredly the more attacking side in the second half, Liverpool attempting resiliency and looking for counters.

Liverpool almost got the counter: Mané again spurning a chance we'd expect him to score, put through by Coutinho but kick-saved by Mandanda.

More importantly, Liverpool got the resiliency. Palace had the chances, but Liverpool did enough, with Karius actually making a couple of saves on Benteke and Liverpool surviving a couple of scrambles and set plays.

Because a bit of luck's almost always involved, Palace wanted three penalties and got none of them. A different referee or linesman could have given at least one. Probably should have given at least one: the first two - Zaha falling over untouched in front of Lovren and Matip getting the ball before getting Benteke - would've have been either soft or flat wrong, but Can appeared to trip Zaha in the 70th minute. On first viewing, it looks like Can wins the shoulder-to-shoulder, but on replay, there's a little coming-together trip in there. And it's not seen or just not called. Then again, Liverpool could have had two penalties for hard-to-see handballs, so *shrugs emoji*.

Less than a minute after Zaha's last penalty claim, Firmino. A little bit of possession, Lallana's run dragging Dann out of position, Henderson's through-ball finding that space between the center-backs, and Firmino exploiting that space, deftly chipping Mandanda.

Once Liverpool finally took a two-goal lead, Liverpool were able to see out the game fairly comfortably. Zaha forced Karius into action once more, soon after Firmino's strike, his effort down the keeper's throat and punched away, but from there, Liverpool held Palace mostly at bay while adding chances on the counter. Which also isn't a new phenomenon. It usually takes allowing a goal, sometimes two, but Liverpool can play with backs against the wall. As they did in the last 15 minutes against Tottenham in the League Cup, the last 10 minutes against West Brom, the last 30 minutes against Chelsea, and the last 15 minutes against Arsenal.

Shout-out to Gini Wijnaldum, whose entrance in the 76th minute was the prelude to Liverpool shutting down the game, and it's probably not coincidence.

The final chance of the match was rightfully Coutinho's, deserved for running the show throughout, unfortunately shot straight at Mandanda. He notched two assists (as well as a hockey assist) and yet I can't help but feel the headline stats won't encapsulate just how good he was today. But it's not as if it's for the first time, so far making a massive leap this season, and it's not as if he's the only one. There's Roberto Firmino, scoring again. If Mané takes one, let alone both, of his clear-cut chances, we're raving again. Can was vital in midfield, did you see that Henderson assist, and holy hell who reminded Alberto Moreno how to play football.

This side thrills. This side baffles. This side cuts defenses to pieces. This side slits its own wrists. But this side never gives up and this side never stops working.

The Relentless Reds grind on, to the delight of both us and our cardiologists.

28 October 2016

Liverpool at Crystal Palace 10.29.16

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.06.16
2-1 Palace (h) 11.08.15
3-1 Palace (h) 05.16.15
2-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 02.14.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Tottenham (h); 2-1 West Brom (h); 0-0 United (h)
Palace: 1-3 Leicester (a); 0-1 West Ham (h); 1-1 Everton (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Coutinho, Mané, Milner 4; Firmino, Lallana 3; Henderson, Lovren 1
Palace: Benteke 3; Dann, McArthur 2; Cabaye, Ledley, Tomkins, Townsend, Zaha 1

Referee: Andre Marriner

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Lallana Henderson Wijnaldum
Mané Firmino Coutinho

It still seems slightly unfair to leave Sturridge out after scoring twice against Tottenham's kids on Tuesday, but that's where Liverpool are at the moment. That's how potent Mané-Firmino-Coutinho has been.

There's a concern over Milner, ill on Tuesday and withheld from full training on Wednesday and Thursday, but unless he's still sick, I suspect he'll play. And there seems a small chance that Emre Can keeps his place, left out midweek while Wijnaldum returned from injury, impressive against West Brom and a taller, stronger player who could be useful when defending set plays.

Otherwise, Liverpool are what Liverpool are. Sometimes shaky in defense, especially on set plays, but sometimes actually good, especially when it comes to limiting opposition shots. And often really, really good in attack, both with and without the ball.

And then there's Crystal Palace. A team who often starts strong against Liverpool, one of those sides who immediately looks to take the game to Liverpool. A team Liverpool's beaten just once in the last five meetings: the last meeting, when Christian Benteke won and scored a 95th-minute penalty. As I suspect you're aware, Christian Benteke now plays for Crystal Palace. The same Christian Benteke who's scored four goals in his last five matches against Liverpool.

Benteke is a near-perfect fit for Palace, a side that likes to attack, but with long balls and crosses. You know, two things Liverpool deal really, really, really, really well with.



Hmmmm. In Liverpool's defense (kind of, maybe), all three of those goals came from the second ball after Liverpool failed to deal with the initial cross.

Also from Bass Tuned to Red:



Oh.



Gulp.

Scott Dann should return after missing the last four matches – one of Palace's main set play threats and scorer of the winner when these sides met at Anfield a year ago – but Jason Puncheon's still doubtful, likely to be replaced by Cabaye. The likely XI is Mandanda; Ward, Tomkins, Dann, Kelly; Ledley, McArthur; Townsend, Cabaye, Zaha; Benteke. Ledley, Tomkins, and McArthur are also excellent headers of the ball, Cabaye's great from direct free kicks, and both Zaha and Townsend are incredibly fast and tricky on counters.

But Crystal Palace are also yet to keep a league clean sheet this season. It's usually just one goal conceded – in seven of nine matches so far – but Sunderland scored twice and Leicester three times in their last match. Liverpool's attack is far more potent than either of those sides. Usually. But, to be fair, both of those Palace matches were away from home.

So it could be more of the same. Frighten in defense and maybe concede at least once unnecessarily, but do enough in attack to win the match. As against Swansea, West Brom, and Tottenham in the last three matches. But Liverpool still need to uphold its end of the bargain, at both ends of the pitch.

07 March 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Crystal Palace


Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


It's hard to overemphasize just how unlikely yesterday's result was.

Liverpool have had 55 players sent off in 51 different league games since the beginning of the Premier League in 1992-93. Liverpool won 16, lost 27, and drew eight of those games. But the vast majority – 37 of 51 – saw no difference to the result. If Liverpool were winning when the player was sent off, Liverpool usually won; they drew when drawing, they lost when losing, etc.

Liverpool were already losing in 24 of those 51 matches. Liverpool went on to lose 21 of the 23 before yesterday, drawing twice – Nottingham Forest in 1994-95 and Arsenal last season, both featuring injury time equalizers – before yesterday's win.

Even despite Liverpool's performance after the red, despite Liverpool's tactical adjustments, despite Liverpool's overall improvement in pretty much every aspect you can think of, yesterday was very much a freak occurrence, and that's not even considering what needed to happen for Liverpool to score their goals.



But, yes, Klopp's response to the red card was clever, and very much worth highlighting. The back three defended wonderfully: getting back despite needing to go forward, holding the offside line against long ball counters, blocking shots and making strong tackles, and with Can still able to stride into midfield when Liverpool were in possession. Moreno and Lovren were especially impressive in this formation, as was Emre Can.

Liverpool remained defensively secure despite the disadvantage, but still had six or seven players getting forward in attack, with more space for Coutinho and Firmino to operate after Milner's dismissal. The first hour saw the opposite effect of the same style as used at Manchester City: Liverpool congested by Milner, Lallana, and Firmino's constant movement, with Dann and Delaney refusing to be pulled out of position as Otamendi was, with Palace's midfield providing far more protection than Fernando and Fernandinho did.

Never underestimate how important space – and the use of said space – is to Liverpool's attack. Philippe Coutinho used it especially well; he played for just half an hour, yet only Lallana created more chances yesterday, and he completed 25 of his 27 attempted passes, a vastly higher pass accuracy than usual.

Palace's replies – first switching to 4-2-3-1 when Mutch replaced Cabaye just before Firmino scored, then reverting to 4-4-2 in the 80th minute – changed nothing. If anything, they made Palace worse: increasingly more open in midfield after Mutch replaced Cabaye, and even more so after Sako replaced Ledley. But more than anything else, Crystal Palace shot themselves in both feet – the mistake for the equalizer and subsequent scrambling and subsequent penalty; wasteful passes in attack, from open play and set plays and especially from Bolasie and Sako, and an inability to understand how to attack Liverpool's new formation – and then proceeded to collapse, as befitting a side that's fallen from joint-fourth to 15th since Christmas.

But that can't obfuscate the fact that Liverpool weren't good for an hour, for similar reasons as we've seen before, against opposition that Liverpool haven't been good at for the last couple of seasons. Too many blocked shots, too many shots from distance, mediocre chances created, an inability to even test the opposition goalkeeper, and conceding the 16th goal from a set play this season (13, of 37 total goals conceded, in the league).

Liverpool replied well to the red card – in tactics, in performance, in that ubiquitous "passion," "character," etc. – but Liverpool needed a goalkeeper error (something they're more than familiar with) and a contentious (if deserved!) penalty to get their goals. Liverpool needed to do something they've probably never done before, at least in Premier League history.

Somehow, Liverpool did.