Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 Stoke

Previous Match Infographics: Roma (h), West Brom (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester City [CL] (a), Everton (a), Manchester City [CL] (h), Crystal Palace (a), Watford (h), United (a), Porto (h), Newcastle (h), West Ham (h), Porto (a), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), Huddersfield (a), Swansea (a), Manchester City (h), Everton (h), Burnley (a), Leicester (a), Swansea (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (a), West Brom (h), Everton (h), Spartak Moscow (h), Brighton (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



Let's say Stoke win their final two matches. Which isn't entirely out of the question. Against Crystal Palace, almost certainly safe, and at Swansea, almost certainly not. That would give them 36 points. Which might well be enough to stave off relegation. Southampton's currently on 32, Swansea 33, and both Huddersfield and West Ham 35.

It's possible. It's not likely, but it's still possible.

35 points, which is what they'd get had they lost on Saturday but won the next two, would probably not be enough, especially considering Stoke's current goal difference.

So it's hard to complain about Stoke's lack of ambition, even though they desperately need points. And even though I desperately want to complain.

You get what you reasonably think you can get. And it's up to Liverpool to do Liverpool. Unfortunately, that lack of ambition worked against this Liverpool side. As it had for West Brom (twice) and Everton this season, but hadn't for Huddersfield, Newcastle, Bournemouth, or Stoke in the previous meeting. Among others.

That lack of ambition, and that deep, happy-to-foul defense led to Liverpool's lowest shot accuracy this season, putting just two of 20 shots on-target. 10%. Alexander-Arnold's bobbled clear-cut chance and Clyne's soft header. That's it. The only other matches that come close to that accuracy percentage were 1-1 at Newcastle in October and 1-1 v Everton in December. Where Liverpool at least still scored once. Which probably would have been enough to win on Saturday.

Even Mohamed Salah wasn't immune. This was the first time this season that Salah's taken more than two shots without putting any on-target. And he took seven shots, which ties his high for the season, along with 2-1 Leicester, 1-1 Everton, 1-1 Chelsea, and 3-0 Maribor. Where he scored twice, once, once, and once respectively.

It's probably a different match, with a different outcome, if Salah scores in the 6th minute. But there are a lot of Liverpool matches with a lot of different outcomes if Mohamed Salah doesn't score some of the much harder chances he's scored already this season.

Stoke's deep defense also had a lot to do with it, at least after Liverpool's two early clear-cut chances. Stoke blocked ten of Liverpool's shots on Saturday, a high for the season. Stoke are just one of four sides to block 50% or more of Liverpool's shots in a match, along with 1-1 Chelsea, 2-0 Newcastle, and 1-2 United. Matches where, again, Liverpool still scored at least once.

It's a style that hasn't worked against this season's Liverpool as often as in past Liverpool seasons, but it's a style that still works more often than we'd like. Don't concede, by any means necessary, and at least you won't get beat.

Once again, I can't help but complain about early kickoffs.



That's a bad record. And there have been some bad matches in there.

Liverpool have been held scoreless in eight matches this season – six in the league. Four of them – all league matches – have been 7:30 US ET Saturday kickoffs. Three draws, one loss.

I don't like early kickoffs. And neither do Liverpool.

Once again, I can't help but complain about the referee. Pieters' handball ignored in the 87th minute. As was Dawson's shoulder tackle on Ings last week. As were three shouts at United last month. And that's all in the last six weeks. That's potentially five points.

Everyone always complain about how their side is refereed, so it's easy to hand-wave away grievances, but these two articles from Paul Tomkins last month make it harder to do so.

• Are Refs Biased Against Foreign Players?
• Placing Refereeing Bias Against Liverpool and Foreign Players on the Spot

Once again, I can't help but complain about squad depth. Can, Lallana, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Matip injured. Mané left out with a knock. Robertson rested. And this is the XI we got. Alexander-Arnold as a midfielder. The same back four that conceded twice in 12 minutes against West Broom last week. An unbalanced formation that seemed to shift between 3-4-3 and 4-3-3 before the substitutions. Milner and Clyne as impact subs, with the latter playing as an advanced right winger.

This is the Liverpool we got. And this is the result we got.

And now we've got a hell of a week. A Champions League semi-final in Rome, still kinda sorta in the balance, then an all-important league match at Chelsea. And it's not starting out well: with this match and this result, with the Buvac "news," with a shallow, tired, injured squad.

But for a few moments going a different way on Saturday – from Salah and Andre Marriner most notably – it could be starting very differently.

I really hope Liverpool don't regret it.

Liverpool 0-0 Stoke

Liverpool needed a win to move closer to cementing next season's Champions League. Stoke needed a win in a desperate attempt to avoid relegation.

We got a supremely frustrating 0-0 draw. Because of course.

Yes, this is going to be patronizing. As it was last week. Congratulations to Stoke for defending a 0-0 that doesn't help them a bit. And they truly defended well, at least after Liverpool missed two clear-cut chances in the first 21 minutes, first with Salah through but somehow chipping wide with his right foot when everyone expected him to score, then Alexander-Arnold getting the ball stuck in his feet from Salah's layoff, only able to poke at Butland. Both chances came from long cross-field passes that found Salah in space.

But after that, about as frustrating a match as I can remember this season. A changed XI struggling to fire, struggling to involve the front three. Stoke figured out that they probably shouldn't allow those cross-field passes to Salah in space, with Pieters much, much tighter to Salah and the Egyptian given no time nor space. The midfield unbalanced with Alexander-Arnold constantly moving out right; kind of 4-3-3, but kind of 3-4-3. Gomez and Moreno – much more the former – rusty as all hell.

All the bad against a deep defense. All the bad in another early kickoff. Passes back and to the right. Passes back and to the left. When it's time to finally go forward, giveaway, hoof, reclaim, repeat. Slow and purposeless. Frustrated and frustrating. Stoke made it hard for Liverpool. Liverpool made it hard for Liverpool.

Liverpool's game-changing substitutions end up being Milner for Ings and Clyne for Moreno, because that's what we've been reduced to. Two full-backs as wingers, Milner kind of, sort of left back, but it's kind of sort of 3-5-2. It's not the best sign when you can't work out Liverpool's structure. It's not the best sign when these are your substitutions.

And I would be remiss if I didn't mention the referee. Again. Because Premier League referees. Because Andre Marriner. Because Erik Pieters' hand ball in the 87th minute was as blatant as you'll see. His arm's in the way of Wijnaldum's cross which seems certain to find either Firmino or Moreno directly in front of goal. His arm's away from his body and he's three yards away from the cross. And it's made all the worse when you remember Roma's penalty on Tuesday.

This campaign started with Watford's late, offside-and-a-foul equalizer. We got West Brom's that-wasn't-a-free-kick equalizer last week. There's a lot more in-between that I don't have the mental health to recap. And now this. It's almost amazing.

So Paul Lambert remains unbeaten at Anfield, with seven draws and five wins. I do not like this voodoo. I do not understand this voodoo. This, as with Liverpool draws against Norwich and Villa, and a 0-1 Villa win – all more than four years ago – makes no sense.

And thus it ends with Liverpool's 12th draw of the season. Only Southampton – in 19th – and West Brom – in 20th – have had more.

Liverpool remain stumbling face-first toward the end of the league campaign. Two draws in matches against the bottom two sides, two matches that they should and could have won. If Chelsea win today against Swansea, the gap's six with a game-in-hand for Chelsea. Liverpool and Chelsea meet next week. A meaningful late season match against Chelsea which Liverpool seemingly need to win. That situation hasn't traumatized us before. What could possibly go wrong.

This, in contrast to the Champions League campaign, is not how we wanted to see Liverpool end the season. The Champions League campaign makes it understandable, but no less easy to stomach. The race for the top four should be over. It might well still be.

That it isn't yet annoys me to no end. The cure to this annoyance comes on Wednesday.

Liverpool v Stoke 04.28.18

7:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 11.29.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.08.17
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.27.16
4-1 Liverpool (h) 04.10.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-2 Roma (h); 2-2 West Brom (a); 3-0 Bournemouth (h)
Stoke: 1-1 Burnley (h); 1-1 West Ham (a); 1-2 Tottenham (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 31; Firmino 15; Mané 10; Coutinho 7; Can, Oxlade-Chamberlain 3; Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Henderson, Ings, Klavan, Lovren, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Stoke: Shaqiri 7; Diouf 6; Choupo-Moting 5; Crouch 4; Allen, Sobhi 2; Fletcher, Jese, Ndiaye, Shawcross, Zouma 1

Referee: Andre Marriner (LFCHistory) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Ings Firmino

I don't think there will be as many changes as you think there will be.

Let's assume Mané is rested after vague-but-worrying "he's injured!" nonsense taking over the internet yesterday. Probably Clyne for Alexander-Arnold as well. Maybe Moreno for Robertson and/or Klavan for Lovren, although I'd be a bit concerned about deploying the same back four as at West Brom. But otherwise, this should be a full-strength team. Yes, even with Roma on Wednesday.

Liverpool still need probably four more points from the final three games. Here are three of them. And it's not as if we're overflowing with options. Those are the three midfielders. You'd prefer none of the front three miss out given how reliant Liverpool are on them.

Maybe we get 4-4-2. That'd help with resting a central midfielder, that'd be a more comfortable formation for both Firmino and Ings (or Salah and Ings). But then there's the question of who plays on the flanks. Salah on the right, but either in a deeper role or with the full-back needing to sit deeper? And on the left – Moreno, Woodburn, Milner?

We haven't seen Klopp switch formations – at least the starting formation – for a few months now. Since the winter. Since around the time these sides last spoke. When, incidentally, Liverpool played 4-4-2. When, incidentally, Liverpool also had Oxlade-Chamberlain, Can, and Mané all available. And the game still wasn't truly won until Salah came off the bench in the 67th minute.

Meanwhile, Stoke. Stoke aren't all but mathematically out of the league, as West Brom were last week, but the gap's four points and goal difference, and they've played a game more than the four teams directly above.

The last three matches are symptomatic of Stoke's season. There's still a chance. Just get a win, or two, by any means necessary. Nope. Keep it close against Tottenham at home, concede but get one back, but concede again within minutes. Seemingly get a last-20-minutes winner at West Ham, then let Andy Carroll score in the 90th minute. Take an early lead against Burnley, don't get a second, eventually concede midway through the second half. One, a loss when a draw would have been okay considering opposition, but more important were the two draws in matches that you could have won.

Good enough for one goal. Rarely good enough for two. Rarely good enough to get the win you so desperately need. Close, touching-distance close, but no better than close.

Stoke haven't won a match since January 20, a 2-0 home win against Huddersfield. Since then, six draws, five losses. In case you were curious why Stoke are going to be relegated. They've conceded three goals just once over that stretch, 0-3 at Arsenal with all three goals after the 75th minute, but they've conceded at least once in nine, the only two exceptions 0-0 draws against Watford and Southampton.

So, seems like a 2-0 or 3-0 home win, something similar to Huddersfield, Southampton, Newcastle, Bournemouth over the last couple of months. Something that should have happened last week at West Brom as well.

But there is the small problem of Paul Lambert.



Liverpool have never beaten a Paul Lambert side at Anfield. 1-1 Norwich, 1-3 Villa, 2-2 Villa, 0-1 Villa, 1-2 Wolves. I remember every single one of those matches and I hated every single one of those matches. Now would be a good time to break that streak.

I understandably haven't been watching much Stoke this season, so my best guess at an XI is similar to last week's against Burnley. Something like Butland; Zouma, Shawcross, Martins Indi, Pieters; Shaqiri, Allen, Ndiaye, Bauer; Crouch, Diouf. Maybe Sobhi or Ireland come in for Bauer, a full-back who's been used as a winger lately. Maybe it's 4-4-1-1 rather than 4-4-2, with Shaqiri in the hole and both Bauer and Sobhi on the flanks, with one of Crouch or Diouf left out. I believe Darren Fletcher is a player who still exists if you really want to pack the midfield. Choupo-Moting, Stafylidis, and Grant are out injured; Wimmer and Glen Johnson are doubtful.

It's almost become rote, but Liverpool cannot look past this to Wednesday. Liverpool cannot do what Liverpool did last week, at least in the last 15 minutes. Or the last 15 minutes on Tuesday.

This is the terrifying part of the season. Things to play for, both domestically and in Europe. A rapidly thinning squad. But optimism. And optimism is always terrifying.

But this is still the Liverpool side that's gotten us to this point. So show us. And show Stoke.

Visualized: Liverpool 3-0 Stoke

Previous Match Infographics: Chelsea (h), Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



(Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Liverpool changed five of the front six players who started against Chelsea last Saturday; only Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, in just his third league start for Liverpool, kept his place. And Liverpool still won 3-0.

It's hard to complain about that.

The starters did *okay*. Liverpool used a 4-4-2 formation for just the second time this season, almost exactly the same lineup which won at West Ham but with Solanke making his full league debut. Liverpool scored early thanks to good work from all involved, especially the final three: Gomez, Solanke, and Mané. Liverpool created three clear-cut chances in the first half; only weak shots from Solanke and Mané prevented Liverpool from having a 3-0 lead at halftime rather than by the 83rd minute. Klopp recognized what was and wasn't working fairly early in the second half – a midfield frequently bypassed and Moreno frequently overloaded – and made changes.

And it was one of those substitutes who stole the show.

There have been 14 games in the league. 21 in all competitions. And Mohamed Salah already has 17 goals, with 12 of them in the league.

Liverpool's top scorers for the past four seasons #salah (accuracy at full time not guaranteed) pic.twitter.com/pPHR69KH0z

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) November 29, 2017

As the Liverpool Echo helpfully pointed out this morning, no Liverpool player has scored 17 goals before the end of November since Robbie Fowler in 1994-95. That Fowler season was the only time that a Liverpool player has scored 12 goals in the Premier League at a quicker pace. He had 12 in the 13th league game that season. Luis Suarez scored his 12 (and 13th) in the 14th league match in 2013-14 (after being suspended for the first five games, the absolute freak of nature). That's it as far as Liverpool goal-scorers go since the start of the Premier League.

This is where the announcer from NBA Jam should be shouting "HE'S ON FIREEEEEEEE" in your head.

Put another way. Mohamed Salah scored his 17th goal for Liverpool yesterday. Sadio Mané scored his 18th.

That's not to downplay the contributions of Sadio Mané, yesterday or in the season so far. He's only played in nine of Liverpool's league games and five of Liverpool's seven Champions League games this season due to suspension or injury, but still has five goals, just one less than at this point last season. Including the often-incredibly-important opener yesterday.

And Mané's contributing in more than just goals. It's only been 14 league games, but Mané is assisting at a much higher rate than in 2016-17. With five league assists last season, he averaged 0.20 per 90 minutes. Two for Firmino, one each for Coutinho, Can, and Lallana. His assist rate is up to 0.45 in the league and 0.42 in all competitions. Incidentally, all three of his league assists have gone to Mohamed Salah. Including the cross for Salah's first yesterday.

Salah rightly grabbing all the headlines right now, but Mané’s effect on the team since joining has been astonishing. In games where he has played 45+ mins (all comps):

P40
W27
D11
L2 (two!!!)

PPG: 2.3 (an 87-point season)

Mins per team goal: 36.7#lfc

— Andrew Fanko (@afanko) November 30, 2017

Liverpool were incredibly reliant on Sadio Mané last season. Now, with Salah in the form he's in, Liverpool are less so. Without one, we've still got the other. With both, look the hell out. Especially when you add Coutinho, Firmino, Lallana, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Solanke, and Sturridge into the mix.

And, probably more importantly, we finally saw Liverpool keep a clean sheet in the league away from home. Sure, there were some unsurprisingly sketchy moments: most notably Mignolet's probably-should-have-been-a-red-card, but also Joe Allen's clear-cut chance eight minutes before Salah sealed the game.

It's a different match if Mignolet goes off. It's a different match if Allen scores. It feeds into the pervasive "Liverpool can't stop Liverpooling" narrative. And we weren't far away from that happening, with the middle third of the match fairly helter skelter.

But that didn't happen. And Liverpool kept the clean sheet. And also held their opponents to one shot on-target or fewer for the seventh time in 14 league matches. For all of Stoke's failings this season, this was just the second time they've been held scoreless at home this season, after an similar 0-4 drubbing against Chelsea two months ago. Sevilla aside, the defense hasn't been bad since the Tottenham debacle, and it's getting better. There will be failings. It's gonna happen. Prepare yourself now if, somehow, you haven't already. But it truly is getting better. Do it once, as at West Ham. Then do it twice, as at Stoke. It will get easier. It will get more consistent.

And Liverpool's performance at the sharp end is getting better and staying better. Liverpool's results since Tottenham: 3-0, 3-0, 4-1, 3-0, 3-3, 1-1, 3-0. Unbeaten with five wins and two draws, with the two draws coming due to a Moreno- and Henderson-inspired collapse and a fluke goal from Willian. Liverpool have scored three or more goals in six of these seven games. Liverpool have kept four clean sheets and conceded just once in two others.

Yes, those two draws were the only two matches against actually good opposition. Yes, Liverpool are still outside the top four, if only by two points. Yes, Liverpool had more points and better results at this stage last season, although the side was obviously helped by not being in Europe.

But, right now, Liverpool are also in a far better place to handle what's coming over the frantic next few months than they were last season. And right now, Liverpool are coming off a win.

Liverpool at Stoke 11.29.17

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Gold

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.08.17
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.27.16
4-1 Liverpool (h) 04.10.16
0-1 Stoke (h; League Cup) 01.26.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Chelsea (h); 3-3 Sevilla (a); 3-0 Southampton (h)
Stoke: 1-2 Palace (a); 2-2 Brighton (a); 2-2 Leicester (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 10; Coutinho, Firmino, Mané 3; Sturridge 2; Alex O-C, Henderson, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Stoke: Choupo-Moting, Crouch, Diouf, Shaqiri 3; Fletcher, Jese, Zouma 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Alexander-Arnold Matip Klavan Robertson
Wijnaldum Can Coutinho
Salah Firmino Mané

"Fresh legs" against Chelsea means more options for Liverpool tomorrow. Firmino and Mané will definitely come back into the squad, most likely for Sturridge and Oxlade-Chamberlain. But there's a chance Salah gets a break; only Matip and Mignolet have played more league minutes so far. If that's the case, either Oxlade-Chamberlain keeps his place or Coutinho moves into the front three.

We'll see a few other changes as well. Alexander-Arnold will probably replace Gomez. Wijnaldum should take over for Milner, but maybe Lallana's an option as well. If we're going by minutes played so far this season, you'd have to think Moreno's in contention for a rest. We haven't seen Andrew Robertson in more than two months. And if Can's fit enough to start, Henderson could be left out as well; he looked completely shattered by the end of Saturday's match.

So far, Stoke this season feels like the Stoke of Tony Pulis' last season.

After three consecutive ninth-place seasons, Stoke are only three points outside the relegation zone. It's that "we've stopped getting better, now what?" feeling. They're bang average in goals scored, with Shaqiri, Choupo-Moting, Crouch, and Diouf contributing, but only Everton have conceded more league goals than Stoke's 26 through 13 league games. Stoke have kept just two clean sheets all season: a 1-0 win at Watford a month ago and, somehow, a 1-0 home win over Arsenal in August. Those are two of Stoke three league wins this season, along with a 2-1 win over Southampton at the end of September. They've won one, drawn two, and lost three of their last six games.

I've no idea if Hughes will rotate much with only four days since their last match, but their XI has been fairly consistent lately. Grant; Zouma, Shawcross, Wimmer; Diouf, Fletcher, Allen, Pieters; Shaqiri, Choupo-Moting, Jese. Maybe Sobhi starts in place of Jese; maybe Crouch plays up front, given height, set plays, and his history with Liverpool, but he's often more likely off the bench. Jack Butland's still out; Glen Johnson and Geoff Cameron remain doubtful.

1-0 against Arsenal and 2-2 against United were reasonably impressive home results, and should give Liverpool pause in thinking this could be a romp. But 0-4 against Chelsea and 7-2 at Manchester City also show that if Liverpool can get at them early - Chelsea had two goals by the 30th minute, City had three - this could be a hiding. Even considering what we've seen from Liverpool with a one-, two-, and three-goal lead.

Stoke had felt like a curse word in previous season. Especially on a Wednesday night, which will probably be wet. But they haven't been that Stoke this season. And Liverpool can't let them go back to being that Stoke tomorrow. Get over the past two disappointments. Get back to the 3-0 Huddersfield, 4-1 West Ham that we know Liverpool are capable of.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Stoke


Previous Match Infographics: Bournemouth (h), Everton (h), Manchester City (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Leicester (a), Tottenham (h), Hull (a), Chelsea (h), Swansea (h), Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)


All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.



The less said about that first half, the better. An unfamiliar formation, a makeshift XI. Not the worst performance, especially as the half went on, and some underserved bad luck, but still an unsurprising result. And probably the wrong decision, even considering the absentees and squad limitations.

The more said about the second half, and the second half changes, and Firmino, Coutinho, Sturridge, and Mignolet in that second half, the better.

Wasn't the aim of the change last night, but Klopp's sub's have scored more frequently than any other manager's in the PL over last 2 years pic.twitter.com/7Wsj0mpte8

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) April 6, 2017

And you can now add two more to that list.






So while there's a surprising amount of substitute goals, there aren't that many game-changing substitute goals, at least compared to last season. Origi's at Sunderland, maybe Origi's against Everton to seal the match, and Coutinho and Firmino's strikes yesterday. Otherwise, they've been added gloss on already near-certain results. And Christian Benteke, sold last summer, remains Klopp's joint-top substitute scorer.



There haven't been enough game-changing substitute goals because there haven't been enough game-changing substitutes. Usually, the squad's limitations are highlighted by Liverpool's substitutions, or lack thereof. Saturday, it was highlighted by the initial team selection, and rescued by being able to bring two – arguably three – of Liverpool's best players off the bench.

Still, Liverpool picked a good time to score some incredibly important substitute goals on Saturday. And at near-record pace, too. Only Mané's first-half quick-fire double against Tottenham saw two Liverpool goals scored in less time this season.

They weren't wholly individual goals – see: Sturridge's defense-splitting pass to Firmino and then run into the box for the first, as well as Wijnaldum's perfectly weighted ball over the top for the second – but those two moments of brilliance from brilliant players were deservedly the talking-points. Amazingly, better things happen with better players on the pitch.

And Liverpool very much needed those two moments.

xG map for Stoke City - Liverpool. This coulda gone a lot worse for the Reds. pic.twitter.com/7X2SJ7IFQt

— Caley Graphics (@Caley_graphics) April 8, 2017

This was Liverpool's largest Expected Goals deficit by Michael Caley's numbers this season. It's the joint-largest under Klopp, the same xG difference as in the 1-3 loss at Swansea with the second-string at the end of the last season.

Only two other sides have posted 2.0 xG or higher in games against Liverpool this season. Swansea's 2.5 xG at Swansea and Manchester City's 2.7 xG at City. Both Swansea and City had five big chances in those matches: each missed three, had one saved, and scored one. Liverpool won the first match 2-1 and drew the second 1-1.

Stoke had four big chances on Saturday: Walters' goal, Arnautovic's first-half shot into the side netting, and Mignolet's two miraculous saves on Adam and Berahino, with the score line at 0-1 and 2-1 respectively. As seemingly always happens with Liverpool, two of the four were self-inflicted: errors by Lovren and Wijnaldum to set up Arnautovic and Adam.

It's the first time Mignolet's saved two big chances in a match this season; he's now saved nine of 27 on-target big chances in league matches. Loris Karius has also saved two big chances in a match this season, but there's a massive asterisk. That was at Bournemouth, a 3-4 loss, with the second of those two saves setting up Ake's winner. Not only did Mignolet deny what could and probably would have been two crucial goals, both saves saw the ball pushed out of danger as well.

Mignolet has come in for a lot of deserved criticism this season (and last, and the season before that, and etc.), but this was a performance we'll all remember if Liverpool actually achieves its goals and finishes in the Top 4 this season.

Six games left.

Liverpool 2-1 Stoke

Goals:
Walters 44'
Coutinho 70'
Firmino 72'

That probably should not have happened.

Well, let me rephrase. I did not expect that to happen. That's more accurate.

The first 45 minutes could not have gone worse. An unexpected XI and formation with Coutinho, Firmino, and Sturridge only fit enough for the bench. A first league start for Ben Woodburn, a second league start for Trent Alexander-Arnold. The first time Milner's played in midfield this season. And, most surprisingly, a 3-5-1-1 formation.

And Liverpool very much looked a makeshift side in an unfamiliar set-up.

Stoke dominated early on. Absolutely dominated, with Liverpool almost wholly unable to possess the ball in the opposition half and only keeping the score at 0-0 because the linesman rightfully ruled Shaqiri offside with the ball in the net and because of Marko Arnautovic's errant finishing. But really, it was just a terrible, terrible game, from both sides, and all too in keeping with previous Liverpool poor performances away from home against these types of teams.

To be slightly fairer, Liverpool actually got better as the half went on, starting around the half-hour mark. Which isn't entirely unexpected given personnel and formation. Liverpool actually had more of the ball and Ben Woodburn actually got on the ball. But then, because of course, shenanigans. Mike Dean ignoring a transparently clear penalty on Woodburn when Pieters dove in, immediately followed up by Jon Walters' seventh goal against Liverpool in 13 games, an easy header after a ball over the top to Shaqiri completely set Clyne and Klavan on fire. With barely more than a minute left in the first half.

Panic, panic, the sky is falling, etc. Desperate reaction needed. Desperate reaction taken, with previously-ill Coutinho and needing-rest Firmino replacing Alexander-Arnold and Woodburn. Still three at the back, but 3-4-3 rather than 3-5-1-1, and actual experienced outstanding attackers on the pitch. Milner back in the position he belongs in, Clyne back on the side he belongs on.

But it was almost all over before it started, and Liverpool have Liverpool's man of the match to thank for it. Seven minutes after the restart and Liverpool are unsurprisingly a bit more coherent than in the first half, but haven't truly kicked into gear. And Stoke have a corner. And Liverpool's suicidal tendencies pop up at the least helpful time, with Wijnaldum somehow heading an attempted clearance back towards his own goal. Towards four Stoke players with none from Liverpool in the immediate vicinity. Directly to the feet of Charlie Adam four yards out. And Simon Mignolet denied him.

From there, the turning of the screws. Origi's curler just wide. Sharp efforts from Firmino and Coutinho saved by Grant. A bullet header from Lovren off the bar. But no goal, not for lack of trying.

No goal until Daniel Sturridge came on. Daniel Sturridge came in the 68th minute. Liverpool were level in the 70th minute. Liverpool were ahead by the 72nd minute.

First, Can's chipped cross in the direction of Sturridge, parried by Whelan but directly to Coutinho, arrowed into the far corner. Then Wijnaldum's long pass over the top to a barely onside Firmino, absolutely Suarezed into the net from 20 yards out on the half volley. And that's the highest compliment that I can pay that strike. I honestly thought it was Luis Suarez for a half-second.

Sturridge may not have been directly involved in either goal, but it was his clever movement which helped create space for both, in sadly direct contrast to Origi's lack of.

But, as is Liverpool's wont, Liverpool almost immediately threw it all away, in a matter of moments. Stoke's first attack after conceding the second, Arnautovic in behind Clyne and a delicious low cross finding Berahino in behind Klavan, an apparent tap-in from approximately four yards out. And Simon Mignolet denied him. And that's why Simon Mignolet's the man of the match.

And no matter how frequently Liverpool have tortured and tormented us late in close matches this season, that was about it. For how terrified we all were, there weren't any true moments of terror after Mignolet denied Berahino's clear-cut chance. Liverpool denied Stoke space in their defensive half, tried to counter into Stoke's half, and controlled proceedings and even possession in the final stages. As a good, competent side should.

Desperate reaction achieved. And, in truth, despite the overwhelming euphoria (ps, eat that Stoke), the bare minimum achieved. Keeping necessary pace with the rest of the top four contenders. Beating a side that hadn't won against a top-seven team since October 2015. Doing what you're supposed to and need to do. Doing what we haven't seen enough of this season.

Today was Liverpool's weaknesses and strengths all laid bare. Injuries and squad depth remaining the biggest detriment. An inability to change formation or tactics successfully when key players aren't available. Defensive errors, goals conceded.

But firepower when needed. A reaction when needed. A win when needed. The brilliance of Coutinho and Firmino. The tantalizing potential of a potentially fit Sturridge. Simon Mignolet's actually a goalkeeper sometimes. Goal-scoring, game changing substitutes. Liverpool's 18th point gained from a losing position, the best in the league, but also up against a record where Liverpool's dropped 15 points from winning positions.

It was a manic, schizophrenic match. It's been a manic, schizophrenic season. And there are six games left.

Liverpool at Stoke 04.08.17

10am ET, live in the US on CNBC

Last four head-to-head:
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.27.16
4-1 Liverpool (h) 04.10.16
0-1 Stoke (h, League Cup) 01.26.16
1-0 Liverpool (a, League Cup) 01.05.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Bournemouth (a); 3-1 Everton (h); 1-1 City (a)
Stoke: 0-1 Burnley (a), 0-2 Leicester (a); 1-2 Chelsea (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 13; Firmino 9; Coutinho 8; Lallana, Milner 7; Origi 6; Wijnaldum 5; Can 4; Lovren, Sturridge 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Stoke: Allen 6; Arnautovic 5; Crouch 4; Bojan, Shaqiri, Walters 3; Bony 2; Adam, Martins Indi, Muniesa, Shawcross 1

Referee: Mike Dean

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Wijnaldum Lucas Can
Firmino
Sturridge Origi

Sadio Mané needs knee surgery. Both Jordan Henderson and Adam Lallana are getting better, but neither are all that close to returning. And Philippe Coutinho remains ill, not at Melwood yesterday or today because of the virus which saw him depart Wednesday's match just after the hour.

So, how's your week going?

Neither illness nor a lack of mid-week training completely rules Coutinho out. And Daniel Sturridge is back, only fit enough to stay on the bench against Bournemouth but potentially capable of starting tomorrow. Screw it, let's go diamond.

Now, the above formation isn't really a diamond. It's basically the usual 4-3-3 with a different front three. Firmino will Firmino wherever Firmino wants while Sturridge works the inside right channel and Origi the inside left. The midfield three will play exactly as they have in the last two matches, for better and for worse.

If neither Sturridge nor Coutinho are fit enough to start, I honestly have no idea what Klopp will do. It'd seemingly have to be either 18-year-old Trent Alexander-Arnold on the right or 17-year-old Ben Woodburn on the left. Maybe Moreno – either in attack or at left-back with Milner in attack? And I also remain concerned about Lucas Leiva's ability to start three matches in a week.

There's a chance Marko Grujic, having made the bench against both Everton and Bournemouth, comes in, whether in place of Lucas, pushing Can into the holding role, or with Wijnaldum moving into the front three, but I remain doubtful. He's missed three months, he's hardly played for the u23s. Anything he does this season remains a bonus.

Meanwhile, Stoke have comfortably settled into their usual April "we're nowhere close to the top and far enough away from the bottom, is the season over yet?" groove. 12th in the table, amongst the same pack of sides where Bournemouth sit, eight points and goal difference clear of the relegation zone. And winless in the last month, losing their last three matches against Chelsea, at Leicester, and at Burnley.

Stoke have a reasonably good defense and a surprisingly paltry attack, especially considering the glut of attacking midfielders in the squad. They've only kept four clean sheets in the 13 matches since the start of the New Year, but one of those was against Manchester City at Manchester City, and they've given up more than two goals in a match just once during that stretch: a 4-0 drubbing at Tottenham.

It will not be easy for a Liverpool side missing four of its preferred front six to make the necessary break-through.

Still, a side with Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Berahino, Bony, Walters, Diouf, Bojan, and Afellay should have more than 33 goals through 31 matches; only Burnley, Hull, Sunderland, and Boro have scored fewer. Of course, Burnley, Hull, and Sunderland all scored twice against Liverpool on their own ground already this season so that may not be the best barometer.

My guess is Grant; Johnson, Shawcross, Martins Indi, Pieters; Cameron, Adam; Walters, Allen, Arnautovic; Berahino. Sobhi, Afellay, Bojan, Diouf, and Shaqiri other options on the flanks, Whelan could (and probably should) start ahead of Adam in midfield, and Crouch or possibly Walters might play up front. Diouf, Walters, and Shaqiri are carrying minor injuries but should be available; Ireland and Butland are the only confirmed absentees. Three at the back, something Stoke deployed more often earlier in the season but less so of late, is a possibility but seems unlikely.

Obviously, a response is needed after Wednesday's disappointment. And Liverpool don't have the best record with responses, at least if they're not playing a top-seven side. Liverpool beat Tottenham and Arsenal convincingly after defeats at Hull and Leicester but 3-4 Bournemouth was followed by 2-2 West Ham; 2-2 Sunderland was followed by 0-0 Plymouth and 0-1 Southampton; 2-3 Swansea was followed by 0-1 Southampton and 1-2 Wolves.

There are seven games left. And a response is needed.

Visualized: Liverpool 4-1 Stoke

Previous Match Infographics: Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.



It's the 12th minute and the sky is falling.

Liverpool had started as Liverpool should. Pressing furiously, Stoke penned in, dominating possession. It had led to just three Liverpool chances – Henderson not far over from distance, Firmino's soft header easily saved, Firmino blocked from outside the box – but, aside from Lallana's goal against West Ham, that was at least more than Liverpool created in the first ten minutes of matches since Coutinho's injury. And, to be fair, Liverpool were up against what seemed most like a back three, for the first time this season. It was going to take some time to break through, but the breakthrough seemed coming.

But then, just a little bit of Stoke possession. A hoofed long ball from Grant, Walters and Crouch holding up play, one cross and Crouch header only half-cleared, a second cross and Walters header converted, with Lovren losing his man and Mignolet's spaghetti wrists at the near post.

And the sky is falling. And Liverpool's on tilt. Liverpool look capable of conceding a second at any moment, and Liverpool's lucky not to concede a second when Klavan and Milner can't decide who's going to clear and Allen's in, and Mignolet wonderfully denies him before Klavan clears Pieters' rebound off the line.

And the sky is falling. And then it isn't. Stoke have just one more chance in the next 15 minutes, Walters from outside the box swiftly blocked. And then Liverpool have an equalizer. Then a second. Then a third. Then a fourth.

Between Liverpool's first and fourth goals, Stoke failed to take a single shot. Afellay's 78th-minute off-target blast from long, long range was Stoke's only effort after the 30th minute. During that spell, Liverpool took ten and scored four goals.

I have no idea why you all thought the sky was falling.

Liverpool have now conceded the opening goal around or before the 30th minute in four matches this season. They've won three of them: 4-3 at Arsenal, 2-1 at Swansea, and 4-1 against Stoke. 0-2 at Burnley remains the odd match out, and increasingly looks more and more of a fluke.

Liverpool came back to win one league match from a similar position last season, 3-1 at Chelsea in Klopp's third league match. They drew twice – against Chelsea and at West Brom in May – and lost four: 1-2 against Palace, 0-3 at Watford, 0-2 at West Ham, and 1-3 at Swansea. Although, admittedly, that record looks a lot better if you include cup matches, i.e. Dortmund, Southampton, Kazan, Exeter.

I still advise not conceding the opening goal. But it's yet more evidence of Liverpool's resilience under this manager.

And it helped that yesterday was probably Liverpool's best attacking performance since Coutinho's injury.

Sure, there are the four goals from four different sources. There are 20 shots, only topped by the 27 against really truly not-good Sunderland in the last month, eclipsing the ten at Bournemouth, 18 against West Ham, 15 at Middlesbrough, and 11 at Everton. There's Origi's increasingly good hold-up play, most evident in the build-up to Liverpool's equalizer, as well as his contribution on Imbula's own goal. There's Firmino finally coming good on the left, five shots with three on-target for the second-straight match, and finally scoring. And he created four chances yesterday; he'd created just three in the four matches prior since Coutinho's injury. There's Mané's permanent threat from his pace even when he's not at his most potent, there's Lallana and Wijnaldum's constant movement, and, hey, there's Daniel ****ing Sturridge coming off the bench to score with his first touch.

But Liverpool still had help.

Liverpool still only put six of 20 shots on-target. Three of Liverpool's four goals were unassisted. All four saw at least one Stoke player get a touch during the move, whether it was Diouf's failed headed clearance on the second or errors directly leading to Liverpool's goals. Stoke committed two Opta-defined errors leading to goals: Johnson's misplaced touch setting up Lallana for the first and Shawcross' ill-advised back pass for Sturridge to score the fourth, and that doesn't count Imbula putting the ball in his own net. That error from Shawcross led to Liverpool's only clear-cut chance of the match, despite taking 20 shots.

Liverpool's starting striker failed to take a shot or create a chance, although in a just universe he'd be credited for an assist on Imbula's own goal.

Stoke kind of shot themselves in the foot, even if Liverpool put and pushed them into situations to do so. There was more than a little of how Bournemouth got their goals against Liverpool in how Liverpool got their goals against Stoke. What goes around often really does come around.

And, nonetheless, Liverpool were due.

Firmino has now had nine shots on target since he last scored (vs Watford).
Definitely due one...

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) December 27, 2016

Sturridge has 0 from 9 on target. #weirdscience https://t.co/kgkAZDhMrj

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) December 27, 2016

Each player scored not long after those tweets. Damned lies and statistics, etc. Their goals had felt coming from some time, with Sturridge especially long overdue considering his output in so few minutes. When good players put enough shots on-targets, good players will eventually get their goals.

Sturridge's goal, his first of the season and Liverpool's fourth, to seal the match, was the 100th Premier League goal that Liverpool have scored under Jürgen Klopp. This was Klopp's 48th game.



It's an average of 2.08 goals per game. 20 different players, as well as two own goals. It's not that long ago that it felt as if Own Goal were one of Liverpool's top two or three scorers for nearly half a season. Of course, it's also not that long ago that Liverpool scored 100 goals in a single league season (*waves at Luis Suarez*).

Still, it's a remarkable total considering Liverpool's output in 2014-15 and the first half of 2015-16. And most impressive is how Liverpool have spread the wealth. There are eight players with at least seven goals, but only three in double-digits and no one with more than 16. Five players are no longer with the club – Benteke as top scorer of the lot with seven goals – although Sakho will soon make six.

I've said it before, and I hope to say it many, many more times. This can be and often is a fun attacking team, with heavy emphasis on the word team. Even without Coutinho. Even when getting some help from the opposition. And, probably most importantly, even when conceding the opening goal and it seems as if the sky's falling.

Liverpool v Stoke 12.27.16

12:15pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
4-1 Liverpool (h) 04.10.16
0-1 Stoke (a; League Cup) 01.26.16
1-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 01.05.16
1-0 Liverpool (a) 08.09.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Everton (a); 3-0 Boro (a); 2-2 West Ham (h)
Stoke: 2-2 Leicester (h); 0-0 Southampton (h); 1-3 Arsenal (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 8; Lallana 6; Coutinho, Firmino, Milner 5; Origi 4; Can 3; Lovren 2; Henderson, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Stoke: Allen 5; Bojan, Shaqiri 3; Bony 2; Adam, Arnautovic, Muniesa, Walters 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Klavan Milner
Lallana Henderson Wijnaldum
Mané Origi Firmino

All things being normal, it'd still be more difficult to guess tomorrow's XI than usual. Not only will Liverpool play Manchester City four days after this, then Sunderland two days after that, both Sturridge and Can should be available to start after substitute appearances at Everton. And I'd expect that both will get at least one start over the next week. *Insert complaining about packed festive season being even worse for Liverpool here*

And all things aren't quite normal, as Firmino was arrested and charged with drink driving early on Christmas Eve. I can't imagine the club are too happy with that, and wouldn't be surprised to see him dropped. But maybe the club don't punish him until the courts do; that's what happened to Yaya Toure earlier this month.

Matip will likely be left out for at least one more match. Coutinho will likely miss this and the next at best. So, your guess is probably as good as mine. Tomorrow's line-up will better inform how Liverpool intend to cope with games flying fast and thick, as well as with the lingering injuries and Firmino's potential punishment. I'll guess "same as the last two" for seeming lack of a more obvious option, but I expect at least one or two differences, whether it's Sturridge in place of either Firmino or Origi, Wijnaldum or Lallana moving into the front three, or something even more left-field, such as a 4-4-2 diamond. A front six something like Henderson; Wijnaldum, Can; Lallana; Sturridge, Origi.

While it's tempting to focus on Saturday's match as the most meaningful – which it is! – and reckon that if Liverpool are going to "rest" players they may well do so tomorrow, neither Stoke nor Sunderland will let it be easy for Liverpool.

Stoke remain hard to figure out. Their squad suggests that they should be a fair bit higher than 12th in the table, albeit only three points behind seventh at the moment, but they've had a tough time with injuries. They failed to win any of their first seven league matches, but have only lost two of their last ten, winning five and drawing three. But while they're not getting hammered by the likes of City, Tottenham, and Palace any more, none of the wins over the last ten-match stretch have been all that impressive: 2-0 over Sunderland (h), Hull (a), and Burnley (h); 3-1 v Swansea; 1-0 at ten-man Watford. They only faced three sides in the current top-10 during that stretch: 1-0 at tenth-placed Watford, 0-0 against seventh-placed Southampton, and 1-3 at fourth-placed Arsenal.

And this will be an especially not fun week for the Potters, traveling to Chelsea four days after facing Liverpool.

Joe Allen – wee Joe Allen! – is the club's top scorer with five goals. That's, uh, a bit surprising. Especially as it's one more league goal than Allen had in 91 league appearances for Liverpool. Here's to you, Jordan Henderson, because it'll primarily be the captain's job to mark Welsh Jesus.

My best guess for Stoke's XI remains their usual XI, aside from injuries and suspensions. Grant; Johnson, Shawcross, Martins Indi, Pieters; Imbula, Whelan; Shaqiri, Allen, Bojan; Walters. Wilfred Bony could start as the main striker – although he's been disappointing since joining from City on loan – with either Walters, Bojan, or Shaqiri dropping to the bench. Crouch, Bojan, and Diouf are other options up front, with Walters, Bojan, and Diouf all capable of playing out wide. And there's a remote chance that Charlie Adam plays in midfield.

Butland, Cameron, Bardsley, and Ireland are out injured, while Arnautovic is suspended.

'By any means necessary' is basically the festive season's motto. As Liverpool did at Everton a week ago. I remain concerned about Liverpool's ability to create and score chances without Coutinho. I will perpetually remain concerned about Liverpool's error-prone defense, no matter consecutive clean sheets. Liverpool squad remains a bit threadbare, but it's getting better at a very necessary time.

Whether Liverpool get "Good Stoke" or "Underperforming Stoke" will make an obvious difference, but we haven't seen Underperforming Stoke much over the last two months and even Underperforming Stoke won't be Horrific Stoke From This Fixture Last Season, a mid-April 4-1 stroll with Stoke having nothing to play for. Stoke have big in-the-way defenders, Stoke can counter, Stoke are good from set plays, Stoke have Lord Joe Allen. Prior to that whomping at Anfield, the away side had won the last three meetings in this fixture by a 1-0 margin.

This ain't gonna be easy. But it rarely is.

Visualized: Liverpool 4-1 Stoke

Previous Match Infographics: Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.

As much fun as that was, an awful lot of things had to go Liverpool's way for that result to happen.

There are goals in this Liverpool side – no Premiership side has scored more than Liverpool's 28 since the beginning of 2016, and most sides have played at least one more match – but all four of yesterday's seemed uncharacteristic or even fluky.

The first needed three Stoke players to argue the free kick, not paying attention to Milner trying to take it quickly or Moreno cheating into space; Milner to be clever enough to see Moreno and play it quickly; Moreno to hit a rocket which ends up either blocked by a defender or in the stands nine times out of ten; and the possibly unsighted Stoke goalkeeper to react late to a savable, if fierce, shot.

The second needed Ojo's brilliant run past Shaqiri and unbelievable cross, Sturridge's clever movement to lose Wollscheid, and Haugaard to stay planted on his goal line.

The third needed Stoke's defending to completely fall apart after a short corner, Milner's unbelievable cross, and Haugaard to stay planted on his goal line.

The fourth needed Origi's cross to Sturridge – no matter what Klopp or Origi says, it was a cross to Sturridge – to somehow end up in the back of the net, and Haugaard to stay planted on his goal line.

We're not seeing goals like Moreno's or Origi's second very often. And we're not seeing many better crosses than Ojo and Milner's assists. Usually, goalkeepers seem to perform heroically against Liverpool. That most certainly did not happen yesterday.

Liverpool created three clear-cut chances yesterday (and scored two!): Sturridge's goal, Origi's first, and Origi's 61st-minute miss. All three came from crosses, all three were headers, and all three went into the six-yard box. Almost every other goalkeeper in the league tries to punch each of them clear. Prior to yesterday, only seven of Liverpool's 73 goals in all competitions came from headers (Ings 2; Benteke, Firmino, Origi, Sturridge, Toure 1).

That's not to take away from Liverpool's performance. Individual players did well: Stewart and Ojo in their Premier League debuts, Milner as a central midfielder, Allen as a quasi-left winger and then quasi-central midfielder, Origi as a substitute and strike partner for Sturridge (who almost always looks better with a strike partner). And Liverpool were trained well: an unfamiliar XI in multiple unfamiliar formations: first, either a 4-2-3-1 or a very unbalanced 4-3-2-1 (you pick; I can't decide), then in a 4-4-2, both diamond and orthodox, after Origi came on.

Liverpool coped with Stoke's long ball tactics; Crouch won all five of his aerial duels (Toure won one of three, Skrtel one of two in total), but Stoke were rarely first to the second ball. Stoke put just one open play shot on-target in the entire match: Imbula from long-range in the 42nd minute.

Stoke took just 11 shots, and put just three shots on-target. Liverpool limited Stoke to just five shots from inside the box, but three of those five – by far the three most dangerous – came from set plays: Bojan's goal, Shawcross's header narrowly off-target, and Cameron's header excellently saved by Mignolet. The others were Afellay's wayward early wide-box effort and Crouch's swiftly blocked just inside the area. Once again, Liverpool were lucky that they weren't further punished from dead ball situations.





You can clearly see Milner pointing and screaming to hold the line. But only Clyne and Ojo (to a lesser extent) do so, with Toure especially guilty of dropping deep, leaving Bojan free and clear in the middle of the box. It's Ojo's first league match, while Toure hadn't started since the 3-0 win over City five weeks ago and had started just three matches since the beginning of February. And while it didn't affect the play, I also appreciate Skrtel somehow being prone on the pitch as Bojan scores.

That such a different XI struggled to defend set plays isn't necessarily surprising, but set plays seem to remain an issue no matter who plays.



Liverpool have conceded 18 set plays goals in 16 different games, and it cost Liverpool points in 10 of them. Liverpool could, and probably should, have won against Norwich (h), Southampton, West Brom, Exeter, Arsenal, Sunderland, and Dortmund; drawn against Palace (h) and United (h); and gone to penalties against West Ham. 17 of the 18 conceded either leveled the score or gave the opposition the lead, and the other was Adam Johnson's direct free kick for Sunderland, a match that Sunderland somehow went on to draw. Liverpool only went on to win four of those games, with two of those four in the last month.

To be fair, Liverpool's set play defense has gotten better in the last couple of months: 15 of those 18 goals came prior to February 10, with only three in the last two months (and Crystal Palace's goal at Palace barely counts as a set play, with Liverpool failing during the second phase of defending). But conceding two in two games brings all those worries back, especially when Dortmund are coming to Anfield in three days.

All told, this is still a very pleasing result, made even more so by the changed XI and the fact we saw a bunch of good if unlikely goals. Liverpool demonstrated some actual squad depth, Allen and Milner played well in midfield, Origi's full of confidence, Sturridge continues to get back to being Sturridge. Aside from the set plays, Liverpool again defended well – Moreno most impressively, given how isolated he was on the left for long stretches – even when playing both Toure and Skrtel, and again completely shut down the game in the final 30 minutes. But on another day, Liverpool are lucky to score two, and it's a lot closer and nervier game in the final 30 minutes. But that's football, and it's nice for Liverpool to be on the other end of that sort of luck in front of goal.

At the very least, even if it's not repeatable, this puts the side in a better place for Thursday's match. Winning, no matter how, is always a good thing. But Thursday's match will be nothing like this.

Liverpool 4-1 Stoke

Goals:
Moreno 8'
Bojan 22'
Sturridge 33'
Origi 50' 65'

That was unexpected.

An even more makeshift XI than we'd guessed. Sheyi Ojo's first Liverpool start, Kevin Stewart's first start in the league. Either a 4-2-3-1 with Allen tucking in on the left or a very, very lopsided 4-3-3 formation. Two incredibly unlikely goals from distance, two point-blank headers from picture-perfect crosses.

It was nervy for 10 minutes – after Liverpool, again, conceded an equalizer from, again, a set play – but it ended an easy 4-1 win, the final 30 minutes an utter formality. Almost, but not quite as emphatic an embarrassment to the opposition as last season's 1-6 horror show.

Moreno started the party atmosphere following a quick free kick, an unfathomable rocket from distance, probably the best shot he'll hit in his life. But, and not for the first time, Liverpool couldn't immediately build on it, and conceded an equalizer within 15 minutes: Skrtel's unnecessary foul, Shaqiri's outstanding set play delivery, Bojan somehow ghosting behind Ojo. It was the 16th equalizer that Liverpool have conceded this season, and third consecutive match where Liverpool had gone 1-0 up only to see the opposition level matters, each equalizer coming 10-to-15 minutes after Liverpool's opener. The match prior to those three saw Liverpool go 2-0 up, only to lose 2-3.

But not today. Redemption for Ojo's marginal error on the equalizer, beating Shaqiri for pace down the left before an unbelievable left-footed cross to Sturridge, somehow winning a header in front of two Stoke center-backs with the keeper stuck on his goal-line.

Again, Liverpool couldn't quite push on, with few scares from Stoke, but few scares put to Stoke as well, with the match feeling like a late-season game between two teams who'd secured their league position. Changes were needed to win, but it was still surprising to see Liverpool remove Ojo on halftime, Liverpool having retaken the lead thanks to his wonderful run and assist.

Credit where due. It was the move which sealed the victory, Origi extending then cementing Liverpool's win within 20 minutes. Another Liverpool set play, this time a corner, taken short. Another ideal cross, from Milner, to Origi from close range, a Liverpool striker again eluding Stoke's first-choice center-backs. 15 minutes later, the Belgian on a breakaway: an attempted cross to Sturridge from outside the box finding the back of the net instead.

As against Southampton in the League Cup and Villa in the league – when it rains, it pours. And Origi even missed a chance as good as his opener in between the goals, unable to direct his 61st minute header from Moreno's cross on-target.

I guess starting, and scoring, at Dortmund was good for his confidence.

It'd have been fun had Liverpool gone for broke, gone for, say, six goals to match the drubbing Liverpool suffered a year ago, but that they didn't was more than understandable. 4-1 up, 25 minutes to play, Dortmund on Thursday. Just kill the game. Which Liverpool assuredly did. First Lallana for Firmino, then Lucas for Allen, making sure that an exasperated Stoke had no time or space to find a consolation as Liverpool packed the midfield.

Last Thursday, Liverpool didn't allow a shot after the 59th minute, an amazing defensive performance to deny a threatening Dortmund any space in the final third. Today, Liverpool allowed a single shot after the 66th minute, a speculative effort from Crouch in injury time, steadily seeing out a dead match against dead opposition.

They were very different end stages to the match, against very different opposition. But Liverpool were defensively secure and able to take every breath of air out of the match in both. That's impressive.

This is the first time Liverpool have scored two goals from inside the six-yard box in the same match this season. It's just the second time that Liverpool have scored two headers in the same match (6-0 at Villa) or two goals from outside the box (also 6-0 at Villa). It's just the second time that Liverpool have scored two set play goals in the same match (6-0 at Villa; are you sensing a trend?).

But this wasn't facing a supremely terrible Aston Villa. Liverpool were up against opposition which sat two points and one place ahead of them in the table. The last three meetings between these two sides all ended in an 0-1 away win. And Liverpool still won, emphatically.

We've thankfully seen some big scores and big margins of victory this season: 4-1 City, 6-1 Southampton, 6-0 Villa, even 5-4 Norwich. But this is the first time that Liverpool have done it at home, the first time they've scored four at Anfield since 4-1 against Swansea in December 2014. Which, incidentally, was the only times Liverpool scored four last season.

It's nice to go into the next home match on the back of this, even if it'll be a very different XI using very different XI against very different opposition. But we've also seen Liverpool become almost complacent after previous big scores and big wins, tons of goals followed by none, using up all those goals at once: 6-1 Southampton followed by 0-2 Newcastle, 5-4 Norwich followed by 0-1 Stoke, 6-0 Villa followed by 0-0 Augsburg. It should be hard to be complacent against Dortmund with a place in a European semi-final at stake.

This is a good step for building momentum and for building consistency, despite the aforementioned multiple changes. For building a squad, building a team. But it's only a small step.

Liverpool v Stoke 04.10.16

11am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Stoke aet (h; League Cup) 01.26.16
1-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 01.05.16
1-0 Liverpool (a) 08.09.15
1-6 Stoke (a) 05.24.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 Tottenham (h); 2-3 Southampton (a)
Stoke: 2-2 Swansea (h); 2-1 Watford (a); 1-2 Southampton (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 8; Benteke, Coutinho 7; Milner 5; Sturridge 4; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana, Origi 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Skrtel, Toure 1
Stoke: Arnautovic 10; Bojan 6; Walters 5; Diouf, Joselu 4; Shaqiri 3; Afellay 2; Imbula 1

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Flanagan Lovren Sakho Smith
Stewart Allen
Ibe Firmino Milner
Sturridge

How much does this match matter?

Liverpool probably aren't finishing any higher than sixth, and seventh seems more likely. That's *maybe* Europa League qualification – which, although it's been a really fun ride this season, often causes more harm than good as far as contending in the league goes.

Emre Can's suspended. Jordan Henderson's injured. And there will almost certainly be multiple players rested with an eye on what's Liverpool's most important match of the season, to come on Thursday.

So it's difficult to predict what Liverpool will do tomorrow.

Both Lucas and Stewart are back in training, but probably aren't fully fit. Which makes a midfield of Allen/Milner the most likely option, but I'm hopeful that Stewart, or Lucas (to a lesser extent), is available.

Otherwise, give Lallana, Coutinho, Origi, Clyne, and Moreno the day off, one or two to be used off the bench if really needed. Bring both Sturridge and Firmino back into the XI. Continue with the 4-2-3-1/4-4-2ish formation that, Dortmund notwithstanding, we've usually seen. Use either Ibe, or even Ojo, as a replacement wide attacker. Use this match as an opportunity for some young and out-of-favor players, but don't completely tank it either. The final league position, whether sixth or ninth or anywhere in between, may not matter much, but a bit of positive momentum going into a massive home match against Dortmund certainly matters.

Meanwhile, Stoke currently sit two points and one place ahead of Liverpool in the table, having played two more games. They've lost some of the Stokealona aura, only joint-12th in goals scored this season and inconsistent in recent form, very much not helped by injuries. In the last month, they've drawn twice (at Chelsea and against Swansea), lost to Southampton, and beat Watford. It's all been very upper mid-table. Which is pretty much what Liverpool have been as well.

Cameron, Shaqiri, and Shawcross are questionable. Arnautovic, Johnson, and Whelan are doubtful. Butland, Walters, and Wilson will definitely be absent. Eight of those nine players are usual starters.

So, like Liverpool, it's difficult to guess Stoke's XI, if for different reasons. Let's just assume most of the questionable players will be fit, as well as Arnautovic, just because he's so crucial to Stoke, responsible for 10 goals and five assists. Which would make the XI something like Haugaard; Cameron, Shawcross, Wollscheid, Pieters; Imbula, Afellay; Shaqiri, Bojan, Arnautovic; Joselu.

Maybe Bardsley keeps his place at right back, with Cameron in midfield (in place of Shaqiri or Bojan, sitting deeper with Imbula and Affelay further forward) or at center-back. Maybe Mame Biram Diouf starts up front rather than Joselu. Stoke still have options, but those options are much more limited than when these sides met in the League Cup semi-final.

Regardless of each's personnel, except this match to go how the others have gone: a fairly even but fairly sterile match with few chances and few goals. Both sides will have spells of possession, although Liverpool will undoubtedly have more. Stoke will have chances on the counter and on set plays.

Liverpool and Stoke have played each other three times this season. The away side has won 1-0 in each of those meetings. Coutinho's league goal was a shot from nowhere that somehow went in. Ibe and Arnautovic's League Cup goals both came from counter-attacks, with Arnautovic's also very offside.

Stoke will want to continue that away win trend, and even the score after their disheartening League Cup loss on penalties, a result which preceded a three-match losing streak.

Liverpool will want to get through this, by hook, crook, or luck. Just do the job, and hope that players who don't usually start take their chance to impress. Klopp won't let his side look past this match, but we're all aware what's most important for Liverpool this week.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Stoke aet [6-5 pens]

Previous Match Infographics: Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

Now that we're at the semi-final stage, WhoScored is finally collecting stats in this competition.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Two sides that fully canceled each other out. Or, should have, had one of the linesman actually done his job. A match that was high in intensity and low on quality. A match that featured an absolutely garbage attacking performance from both sides, although some credit is due to the defenses, with Liverpool's attacking issues both familiar and frustrating.

Who cares? Liverpool are going to Wembley.

Liverpool were Liverpool, Stoke were Stoke (and more Tony Pulis' Stoke than Mark Hughes' Stoke), and a second leg semi-final was a second leg semi-final. Hard-fought and closely-matched, and not especially fun to watch, for either supporters or neutrals.

Almost the same side which scored five on Saturday probably wouldn't have scored in this match were it still going. Just 12 shots in 120 minutes. Just three inside the box. Just one in the Danger Zone. Just two on-target, both from Roberto Firmino. Just one marginally threatening: one of those Firmino shots, from Henderson's layoff on a set play, saved onto the post by Butland.

That's not good. That's really, really not good. Liverpool's attack hasn't been good in most matches under Klopp (or Rodgers, for that matter), but I'm still struggling to think of a less impressive performance. Maybe the 0-2 loss at Newcastle, where Liverpool took just 10 shots and put just one on-target – Lovren in the last minute – but even then, half of those shots came inside the box and Liverpool had a perfectly good (in fact, great) goal from Moreno wrongly ruled out.

It wasn't Liverpool's finishing which nearly cost the side, as is more often the case, but Liverpool's ability to create, Liverpool's decision-making, and Liverpool's shot selection. Stoke defended deep and defended well, but nine of 12 shots coming from outside the box – including all four before Stoke's goal – also demonstrates Liverpool's priority on defense. Or, at least, lack of prioritizing the attack. Take the speculative shot and maybe you'll get lucky, but more importantly, make sure you're in place to press then get back and defend.

Still, that wouldn't have mattered had the linesman done his job just before halftime. Sure, Liverpool still conceded from the first shot on-target – yes, again – but otherwise, it was a reasonably competent display in defense. Liverpool coped with Stoke's set plays, Liverpool coped with Stoke's crosses and long balls, Liverpool coped with Crouch's height.

Mark Hughes had obviously watched Liverpool's matches since the last meeting, starting Peter Crouch for just the fifth time this season – all in cup competition – to unsettle Liverpool's defense with height, crosses, set plays, and hoofs, with Jon Walters also coming into the side to muscle defenders and offer an option running in behind. But Liverpool's back line (which kept a surprisingly high line) did enough, winning the second ball if not the aerial duel enough, and blocking enough dangerous efforts (Sakho, most notably on Walters in the 55th minute, but also on Walters in the 62nd and Crouch in the 114th) when they didn't.

Stoke created just four shots from set plays: two very off-target headers from Bojan and Crouch, and two very off-target shots from distance by Johnson and Afellay.

And, again, that first Stoke shot on-target was very offside, and that was the one lovely attacking move of the match. For either side. Stoke had two other good chances: a hoof over the high back line to Walters in the first half, pushed wide of the far post, and van Ginkel's scramble through the middle in extra time off the woodwork – the second, after the "goal," of Stoke's two clear-cut chances. Liverpool, unsurprisingly, created none.

Then, Liverpool's rightfully criticized goalkeeper saved two Stoke penalties, while six of Liverpool's seven players kept their nerves (and Can's penalty didn't miss by much). Jack Butland, who has been one of the best keepers in the league this season, didn't get a hand to any of Liverpool's spot kicks, and went the wrong way on six of the seven; Mignolet saved two and nearly saved another, guessing the right way on five. Shoot-outs are weird.

But Liverpool have precedent here. Liverpool have now won 14 of the 17 shoot-outs they've been involved in, a record going back to 1974. And two of those losses have been in the last six years: against Northampton Town and Besiktas. That's remarkable. Unbelievable. And probably more than a little bit lucky. But winning begets winning.

If Liverpool play like that in most matches, Liverpool won't win most matches: slightly better than usual in defense, but very, very bad in attack. But this wasn't most matches. This was a knife-edge cup semifinal and Liverpool, despite losing on the day, still won.

And winning begets winning. And winning begets Wembley.