The Summer of ’08

Liverpool bought six players in the summer of 2008 for a total of roughly £39m. With the sale of Dossena to Napoli, two of those – the first and third most expensive – are no longer with the club. The other four – Riera, Cavalieri, Ngog, and Degen – have made a combined 64 league appearances (100 games in total) in a season and a half, with Riera accounting for 37 (58%) of those.

I’m far sadder to see Dossena leave than I was the back of Keane. In retrospect, neither proved good business, but Dossena kept his head down, worked hard, didn’t complain, and chipped in those two memorable goals against Madrid and the Mancs. Keane couldn’t hit a brick wall with a shotgun at six paces, missing chance after chance and unable to come to terms with anything Benitez asked. And then he whined about Rafa’s man-management to the press. Tomkins’ most recent piece is an incredibly thorough review of Keane’s tenure (and Benitez’s dealings, and the English media’s idiocy), while results demonstrated that Liverpool were far better after the Irishman’s exit even though Benitez wasn’t allowed to buy a replacement.

Liverpool lost somewhere in the region of £5.5m from the Keane and Dossena deals. Every manager does some unsuccessful business, but the summer of ‘08 couldn’t have come at a worse time. Not only was Liverpool arguably on the precipice of greatness – and still came in second despite the summer’s business – the club was also apparently on the precipice of financial collapse. Benitez would probably kill someone to add £5.5m to his coffers at the moment. Even after recouping £6m from the sales of Dossena and Voronin, rumor has it that Benitez will only be given £1.5m for Maxi Rodriguez at best.

This isn’t a condemnation of Rafa’s transfer dealings, like I’ve seen far too often of late. Again, Tomkins’ piece magnificently dispels the myths, but the majority of his buys have been successful – Reina, Torres, Mascherano, and Agger should form the spine of this team for years to come, while Liverpool made a profit on Alonso, Crouch, Bellamy, Sissoko, and Arbeloa, among many others. The ones that haven’t been hits were usually the budget signings. Of the “failures,” only Keane cost more than £10m (Cisse, bought by Houllier, doesn’t count). I’d willingly compare Benitez’s flops to Ferguson’s (Veron, Kleberson, Taibi, Forlan, Djemba-Djemba, Berbatov).

Unfortunately, Liverpool doesn’t have the means to accept failures the way United does, thanks to two owners who piled debt on the club prior to a worldwide recession, who finally gave Benitez full control last season only to seal the purse strings. And thanks to an egregiously disappointing first half of the season, I truly fear we’ll look back on the summer of 2008 as we do 2002 for Houllier.

On Robbie Keane, for the last time

Over the last few weeks, I've made little secret of my belief that Robbie Keane wasn't going to work out. And Rafa displayed that renowned ruthless streak by shipping him out during the first window. But I want to make sure no one's thinking that I'm reveling in this news. Because, even though it strengthens the team by removing a major question (and seems to show that Liverpool will focus on the 4-2-3-1, which I believe is the right move), it weakens the team as well.

According to the BBC, the deal is for £12m in cold, hard currency, potentially rising to some unstated figure due to those ubiquitous incentives clauses. That's at least £7m that Liverpool's losing (Keane's fee was originally £19m, rising to £20.3m, even though all the stories I've seen today only quote the higher figure) at a time when money's tighter than (pick your sexual innuendo). £7m for 7 goals and 5 months of service, not to mention the 25 or so weeks of wages. And because the transfer's happened so late in the window, it looks as if there was no time to buy a replacement, if Benitez was even allowed access to the funds. It turns out Spurs (or Liverpool) didn't fancy a player exchange – which is fine with me, as the only player I'd want from their squad is Pavlyuchenko.

Granted, if there are no major injuries (I can't knock on wood hard enough), the squad should be okay. Torres, Kuyt, Babel, and Ngog can all theoretically play up top, even as a lone striker. The Torres and Gerrard partnership, with Alonso and Mascherano holding, is and remains the most important part of this team. And Robbie Keane hindered that, even though he’s a Liverpool fan, gave it his all, and didn’t shirk from the spotlight.

Now, what I want to see is Benitez experiment with his "wingers" more. Specifically, I want to see Benayoun on the left or right in games like those earlier infuriating draws, where Liverpool needs creativity. Similar goes for Babel. Apologies for the 1984-style mantras, but 4-2-3-1 is the way forward. 4-2-3-1 is Liverpool's best chance for success. Now, use it in pretty much every game here on out, but vary the flanks according to the opposition.

Then, with help from other teams, Liverpool might actually make a season out of this.

Robbie Keane signs for 4 years

See, every now and then, Liverpool can actually complete transfers at something other than a snail's pace.

After posting about Robbie Keane on Saturday, I certainly didn't expect the deal to be finalized by Monday afternoon. Even as late as this morning, the Liverpool Echo was reporting that the medical would take place today, with an announcement no earlier than tomorrow.

So much for that. The fee is £19m, with the potential to rise up to £20.3m (which is a minimum of £12m more than Spurs paid for him). It's Liverpool's second-highest transfer fee ever. And Spurs are incensed, claiming that this is “an enforced sale.” The story on Tottenham’s official site is incredibly hilarious; I’d link it, but Tottenham’s web site seems to be down. I wonder why.

And you know what, the pace of the transfer is refreshing. Like with Babel last year, Rick Parry can get his finger out his ass to get some work done once in a while. Although, unlike with Babel, we'd heard rumors of this deal for a few weeks. But in comparison to Gareth Barry, who I first wrote about in May, this deal actually was completed (and I'm willing to bet good money that Barry isn't coming to Liverpool this summer).

Now, as I implied in the earlier post, I expect this transfer to alter Liverpool's tactics. For all intents and purposes, Keane is replacing Crouch, although the players have very different styles. But the addition of Keane should force a move away from the 4-2-3-1, as I don't expect him to play in Gerrard's role or in a wide position (at least, in a wide position like Kuyt does).

So let's take a look at the possibilities.

4-4-2
Reina
Arbeloa Carragher Agger Aurelio
Kuyt Gerrard Mascherano Babel
Keane Torres

or

Reina
Arbeloa Carragher Agger Aurelio
Gerrard Mascherano Alonso Babel
Keane Torres

3-5-2
Reina
Skrtel Carragher Agger
Arbeloa Mascherano Gerrard Alonso Aurelio
Keane Torres

4-3-3
Reina
Arbeloa Carragher Agger Aurelio
Gerrard Mascherano Alonso
Keane Torres Babel

4-1-3-2
Reina
Arbeloa Carragher Agger Aurelio
Mascherano
Kuyt Gerrard Babel
Keane Torres

To be perfectly honest, I don’t know which formation would be best, or even which Benitez is leaning toward. But if it were up to me, the 4-1-3-2 looks the strongest.

Notice how rarely I include Alonso, Skrtel and Kuyt, and how I didn't mention Degen, Dossena, Lucas or Voronin at all. It'll be interesting to see how Benitez rotates, and exactly what formation he sticks with.

A big complaint last season was that Benitez didn't know his best team until he settled with the 4-2-3-1 in February. Although I don't know if I fully subscribe to that theory, if Liverpool is going to improve on last season's performance, and finally compete as we hope they can, that cannot be the case this season. The team certainly needs to be more stable.

So this takes summer spending up to around £32m, with Keane, Dossena, Degen, Ngog and Cavalieri signed. About £20m has been recouped through the sales of Crouch, Riise, Guthrie and Carson with more likely to come.

We're getting to the point where I don't see the need to add any more "big-name" players to the line-up. Liverpool has a big enough squad, and they may well have a strong enough squad. Look at the players, both established and young, that I left out of those guessed line-ups. Now we need to learn which formation is most effective and stick with it, so Liverpool doesn't waste half a season figuring out what's the strongest line-up.

Keane v Barry

I don’t want to appear to be counting chickens before they’re hatched, and hopefully I’ll have more to write about this early next week, but I wanted to say one thing upfront. Georger said similar in the comments last night, but I want to expound on it as well.

If it comes down to Robbie Keane or Gareth Barry, I’m taking the somersaulting Irishman (worst celebration ever) every time. And yes, I mean that after everything I’ve written this summer, whether it was about Barry or Liverpool sticking with the 4-2-3-1 formation.

The Barry deal was always contingent on shipping Alonso out. And I’ve never been sold on that front.

I’ve written multiple times that if Benitez prefers Barry to Alonso, I’m okay with Xabi being sold. But that’s not the same as advocating it. Every time I wrote about Xabi v Barry, whether in the comments or on the main page, I’ve tempered it by writing how much I enjoy Alonso both as a player and a professional. And I believe every word of it. I will lose zero sleep if Liverpool miss out on Barry and are “forced” to stick with Xabi.

Even if Barry would be better for Liverpool in the league, it’s not a huge upgrade over Alonso, especially not if Liverpool’s paying £18m for it. But Keane would be more a potent striker than Crouch, Voronin or Kuyt. Even if that meant Liverpool played more of a 4-3-3, 4-1-3-2, or even a 4-4-2 instead of the 4-2-3-1 I’ve come to love.

Plus Keane would count towards a player quota by UEFA’s standard. I don’t know how much weight I put to the rumors suggesting Liverpool wants Barry because of his nationality (as Benitez also appears to want to sell Pennant, Carson and Finnan, all of whom meet the same standard), but I’ve seen it written.

£18m or so is a lot, especially considering the budget Liverpool looks to be working with, but I’d rather see it put toward a 28-year-old striker who we know can score goals in England than a 27-year-old central midfielder. Now let’s see the deal done.