2019-20 Liverpool Season Preview

This season preview will read a lot like the last. Because this season should look a lot like the last. Which, as I suspect you remember, is very much a good thing.

I mean, Liverpool probably won't get 97 points again – a total only two sides have ever surpassed. Real Madrid's three-peat from 2015-16 through 2017-18 is the the only time there has been back-to-back Champions League winners in the last 30 years, since AC Milan in 1988-89 and 1989-90.

Doing those things again is gonna be hard.

That said, if you've spent your summer complaining about Liverpool's lack of transfers, you probably shouldn't have. For multiple reasons.

Sure, there's the sanity aspect. Sun being good for everyone and all. Your favorite internet basement clichés. But more importantly, Liverpool really didn't need to add anyone. Honestly. Not after what was spent and who was signed in the previous two or three windows. Not after what Liverpool accomplished last season, which seems to feel mostly sustainable; Liverpool ran hot at both ends of the pitch at times, but neither xG nor xG allowed was a ton different than actual goals scored and conceded. And not with a handful of players already on the books expected to play far bigger roles this season.

There ain't a whole lot of room for improvement. There are marginal gains to be made, to be sure, but continuity and cohesion are the priority.



The only surprise is that Liverpool failed to sign a back-up left back after Moreno's exit, but Klopp's gotta be happy with Milner and Gomez if needed. He's definitely happy with Gomez to play at right back, and Clyne's gotta still be at the club for a reason. And for what it's worth, both Adam Lewis and Yasser Larouci had runs in preseason too.

"Like a new signing" is often nonsense, but Keïta, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gomez, and Origi will all play more minutes than last season, and some by a vast difference. Three of them are between 24 and 26 years old, while Joe Gomez turned 22 a couple months ago. Plus, Adam Lallana, which, whatever, he exists and is squad depth. I'd be surprised if Shaqiri didn't see more minutes as well. And I'm setting the over/under for Rhian Brewster's minutes at what Origi saw in 2018-19: 585 minutes.

I will be surprised if Keïta or Oxlade-Chamberlain don't become close to regular starters, taking a decent amount of minutes off either Henderson or Wijnaldum or both. Last season, Klopp compensated for a lack of creativity and goals from midfield with both fullback involvement and that front three, but it was still one of the bigger concerns. Not that any of Klopp's sides over the last few seasons have featured goal-scoring or table-setting midfielders; Oxlade-Chamberlain's five goals and seven assists in the PL and CL in 2017-18 are still the high-water for a Liverpool midfielder in the last four seasons. But it would be another helpful arrow in the quiver.

And yeah, you can probably find more talented players than Origi, Shaqiri, Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Brewster – Liverpool's primary attacking back-ups – in the transfer market. But Liverpool aren't paying £40m or more for back-ups to this XI, and – tweaks, injuries, and questions in midfield aside – this is the XI.

Plus, it really is a reasonably deep side. And, more importantly, it's a side that's found the tenuous balance between being in relatively young and/or in its prime and being both settled and experienced.






Liverpool have the same players, many of them peak age, after a 97-point domestic season where Liverpool won the Champions League. Liverpool will play the same formation and style, with few tweaks to the starting XI, at least at the beginning of the season.

All but eight players who'll probably feature this season were either signed or promoted from the Academy by Jürgen Klopp. Lallana, Lovren, and Clyne don't much count at this point, while Firmino, Milner, and Origi have all played the vast majority of their matches – and vastly improved as players – under this manager.

13 of 25 players listed in the "When Did They Debut?" graphic have made more than 76 Liverpool appearances – two full league campaigns – but only five have made more than 150 appearances, with only Henderson above 200.



10 of Liverpool's 11 projected starters are between 24 and 29 years-old, with Alexander-Arnold still only 20. Aside from the 33-year-old ageless miracle that is James Milner, Liverpool's primary backups are 22 (Gomez), 24 (Keïta, Origi), 25 (Oxlade-Chamberlain), and 27 (Shaqiri). All of them have been at the club for at least one full season, if not longer.

Liverpool had the youngest average squad age in 2017-18, and the fifth-youngest in 2018-19. I suspect they'll be slightly higher up that table in this season.

Reasonably experienced but still reasonably young. Still with a bunch to prove, yet already having won the most prestigious trophy in European football.

It is very hard to find that balance.

Even Liverpool's fixture list isn't too bad, although it'll undoubtedly be made harder by some very congested periods.




October into November will be tricky, and December and January have some less than fun matches back to back to back – especially since the Club World Cup's gonna truly mess December up – but there are few stints where you go "oh crap." Which, again, is a lot like last season.

Injury or act of Fowler aside, Liverpool will remain very good. But so will their peers.

Tottenham clearly look like improving, adding Ndombele, Lo Celso, and Sessegnon, whether or not they sell Eriksen today. Spurs made the Champions League final and finished fourth, and probably would've finished third if not for the European distraction. I am curious how they adjust to new faces after going nearly two full seasons with the same XI but they're still probably the third best team in the division, and the biggest threat to leap-frogging Liverpool.

Chelsea and Arsenal remain in periods of adjustment. Chelsea's on yet another new manager and lost Hazard but added Pulisic and remains Chelsea and who the hell ever knows with them. It's Year Two for Unai Emery and Arsenal's spent a pile of money on Nicolas Pepe but still has that defense, even if Tierney and David Luiz should make it both better and more amusing.

At least we still get to point and laugh at Manchester United, who could well be passed by one or two from Everton, Wolves, West Ham, and Leicester if they start the season poorly.

And Manchester City are still Manchester City. That fucking team. Liverpool were one point off their insane pace last season thanks to millimeters and goal-line technology. Liverpool start this season one step behind yet again, losing on penalties in the Community Shield after controlling the majority of the match. Like Liverpool, they're mostly peak age. Agüero, Fernandinho, Otamendi, and David Silva are getting up there but Bernardo Silva, Sterling, Jesus, Sané, Laporte, Ederson, Rodri, Stones, Foden, Zinchenko, and new signing Joao Cancelo are all 25 or younger, while Gundogan, de Bruyne, and Mahrez are still only 28.

Sigh.

It will be a hell of a challenge to usurp City. But Liverpool remain the best placed to do so.

So, that said. I've a bit of housekeeping.

This'll probably be the last thing up on Oh You Beauty for a while.

A few of you already knew. More may have guessed, especially when I went an entire summer without writing – although an almost complete lack of transfers probably didn't help.

It's been almost 13 years. Nearly 2400 posts. I don't even want to guess how many words.

There is an insane surplus of writing talents around these tubes these days. And that certainly wasn't the case two, five, ten years ago.

Andrew Beasley remains one of the best stats writers. Grace Robertson is my favorite "new" writer, putting in great Liverpool work in a bunch of places. Kristian Walsh has a hell of a group getting going at Liverpool.com. I am thrilled that the good folks at The Liverpool Offside are still around. There's Anfield Index, there's The Anfield Wrap.

There will be good information and analysis on the internet and I may even write some of it. Just not every week. I will still be on Twitter, making terrible jokes that I demand more of you laugh at. And I might throw something up here, or for somewhere else, from time to time. But no more deadlines, no more weekly infographics or match reviews. At least for now.

It's time to actually enjoy a season. Because we're probably going to damned well enjoy this one.

Liverpool Season Preview 2018-19

I hate optimism. It makes me nervous.

Last season's run to the Champions League final. Last season's underlying statistics. This summer's additions.

They're all good. Really good. Even preseason, for what little that's worth, has been good as it winds into the real campaign: 2-1 City, 4-1 United, 5-0 Napoli.

And it makes me nervous.



Like last summer, there haven't been many ins and outs. Naby Keïta, signed a year ago, finally a Liverpool player. Fabinho, a more orthodox defensive midfielder to both spell Henderson and allow him to play further forward, but one who'll also need time to adjust to the Premier League. Alisson, the top class keeper we've been screaming about for years. And Xherdan Shaqiri, necessary depth across any of the attacking positions.

Like last summer, they're expensive tweaks rather than the wholesale changes we saw in 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17. Incremental but important improvement to a side that was already damned fun and damned good.

Keïta for Emre Can and Alisson for Ward isn't like-for-like – thankfully! – but Liverpool have positionally replaced those who've departed.

And others are bound to depart as well. Liverpool have already loaned Woodburn, Wilson, Ejaria, and Kent. Ings, Ojo, Origi, Grujic, Mignolet, Markovic, and Chirivella seem likely to leave this week, whether via sale or loan. Ten of those 11 players, not counting Mignolet, combined for all of 529 minutes played for Liverpool last season, the vast majority by Ings.



I'd feel better about the midfield with Oxlade-Chamberlain fit, ruled out for the entire season. I'd feel better about the front three with just one more player in depth, even if it were Woodburn or Wilson – both loaned out because they desperately need playing time at this stage of their career. All of the strikers can play wide *if need be* but I'd very much prefer they weren't. Markovic, Ings, Ojo, etc. – still with the club for now – are obviously not counted because you read the same rumors I read, although I certainly wouldn't be mad if Ojo stayed with the club this season.

Because, as much as I'd like to, I find it hard to believe that Liverpool's front three will be as available as they were last season.



Good lord that front three was good last season. And I really hope they'll be as good next season. But just as importantly, good lord that front three was almost always available last season. And I really hope that they'll be next season.

They could be! But then one could get seriously injured and then does everything fall to hell?

Salah, Firmino, and Mané were unsurprisingly Liverpool's top three scorers last season. 91 goals in all competitions between them. Woof. More than most Liverpool seasons in recent years. Fourth, fifth, and sixth top-scorers? Coutinho, Emre Can, and Oxlade-Chamberlain. Sold, left on a free transfer, out for the season. There's another 23 goals between them. Seventh-top scorer was a three-way tie between Sturridge, Alexander-Arnold, and Own Goals. With three each.

Can Keïta, Sturridge, Shaqiri, Lallana, Fabinho pick that up? Can Sturridge and Lallana stay anywhere near fit? Will Henderson score more playing further forward, with Fabinho as the deepest midfielder?

Shaqiri will absolutely help in that regard, and is a much-needed game-changer off the bench. Naby Keïta scored eight and nine in his last two seasons at RB Leipzig, in a side that scored a lot less than last season's Liverpool. Sturridge has *gulps, tugs collar* looked fantastic so far in preseason. Lallana, even with "normal" injuries, will be around more this season, versatile enough to play anywhere in the front five.

So, maybe. But it's still maybe.

Regardless, this is one hell of a squad, especially when the preferred XI are all available. It might well be the best Liverpool squad I can remember, in more than a decade of doing this. In all three areas of the pitch: that front three; a constantly improving defense after adding Virgil van Dijk and now featuring the world's most expensive goalkeeper; and if everyone settles, an well-balanced and surprisingly deep midfield.

And this squad is exactly the right age to reach its potential.



The nine Liverpool players who played the most league minutes last season are all between 24 and 29 years old. Salah, Firmino, and Mané are 26, exactly at what should be the apex of their powers. Fabinho's 24, Keïta's 23, Alisson's 25, and Shaqiri's 26. Only Milner – for whom age truly is just a number – Lallana, and Klavan are over 30.

We've been talking about how a young Liverpool have potential for three seasons. Now is when that gets proven.

And not only is the squad the right age, it's mostly a settled squad.



Sure, only two of Liverpool's most-likely 25 players have made more than 150 appearances for the club. Only two were with the club before the 2014-15 season.

But 16 of the 25 were either signed or promoted from the Academy by Jürgen Klopp. Eight of the 11 players in the "first-choice" side are Klopp signings or promotions – all except for Jordan Henderson, Dejan Lovren, and Roberto Firmino; the first two have absolutely earned their spots and the latter is probably the most Jürgen Klopp player to ever play.

This group has grown together, this group will continue to grow together. This group is already good, and looks as if its gotten even better.

But what Liverpool does or has done isn't all that matters.

Manchester City remains the league's leviathan, curb-stomping almost all-comers last season. Most points, most wins, most goals, etc. etc. in a single campaign. All they've lost is Yaya Toure and a couple of back-up goalkeepers. They've added a club record signing in Riyad Mahrez. They remain terrifyingly good. It's still their league to lose.

Chelsea and Arsenal, under new management, will both be very different sides this season. That may help Liverpool, as both go through a period of adjustment. That may threaten Liverpool, as Chelsea bounce back after a disappointing campaign, as Chelsea always seems to do; as Arsenal push forward after a few seasons of Late Wenger Malaise. Neither will have Champions League football this season, and we've seen how that can help domestically, although the Europa League can be a detriment depending on how it's handled.

Tottenham have stood still, but that's still a very good and young and experienced squad standing still, albeit one that's moving into a new stadium – meaning they will be a lot of away matches to start the campaign – and one that'll seemingly struggle with World Cup fatigue more than any other in England. If Tottenham still start well enough, look out. If not, it could be a long season playing catch-up.

It feels like it's gonna be very Third Season Jose Mourinho for Manchester United, but you can never count that lot out, especially since Liverpool haven't beaten them in a match that counts since 2013-14.

And while the rest of league's spent some money, Liverpool were very good against the rest of the league last season, with only one loss to a side outside the top five. Whether that's a high-water mark or a trend which continues remains to be seen.

It also ain't gonna be the easiest start to the season.




Liverpool will play four matches against top-six rivals in the first 11 games. Three of those four are away from home: Tottenham, Chelsea, and Arsenal, with the other against Manchester City. Comparable fixtures in both September and November are worrisome, with Liverpool only taking nine of an available 21 points in those matches last season.

If Liverpool similarly struggle in those matches, we could be done here before 2019 depending on what others do. But if Liverpool improve on last season's comparable performances, look out. All things considered, Liverpool have gotten off lightly from the World Cup, with only Lovren and Henderson yet to feature in preseason, which should definitely help at the start. Aside from the New Years' Day game at Manchester City, it's not a bad festive period. It's certainly looks a reasonable close-season run-in. There are points on the table, clear ways to improve upon the totals from last season.

Can Liverpool win the league this season? Probably not. But maybe! Honestly.

We've got reason to be optimistic.

Liverpool have that front three. They're the right age. They've added some outstanding players this summer, and have only lost Coutinho – who Liverpool did fine without for half a season – and Emre Can. They were an incredibly fun side last season that looks to be even more fun in this one.

Liverpool have the talent. More than any other Liverpool side in recent memory.

But so do five other sides in England, especially the one who just won the dang thing.

What you do obviously matters. And Liverpool have seemingly done what they've needed to this summer, building upon a truly enjoyable team from last season. As has thankfully happened in every year since Jürgen Klopp became manager.

But it ain't only up to Liverpool.

Liverpool Season Preview 2017-18

Liverpool should be entering this season on a high.

Liverpool took 76 points last season, 16 more than the season before, their second-highest points total since the Rafa Benitez era.

Liverpool finished fourth last season, in an incredibly difficult league, and will be in the Champions League proper this season if they get past Hoffenheim in the playoffs later this month.

Liverpool's underlying statistics suggest they absolutely merited that fourth-place finish last season. They were one of the league's best attacks, one which should be even better this season. Of course, they were also too often terrifying in defense despite strong shot suppression numbers.

Liverpool stormed through preseason, scoring 16 and conceding just three, never once playing what we'd guess as the first-choice XI when real football actually begins. They were technically unbeaten, only losing to Atletico Madrid in the Audi Cup final on penalties, and also won the Premier League Asia Trophy. The highlight was a 3-0 thumping of Bayern Munich on Bayern Munich's own ground, and yes, it's preseason, but it's also still further proof that this Liverpool side is quite good against other quite good sides. Not that that was anywhere near the top on our list of concerns.


But Liverpool doesn't seem to be entering the season on a high. At least not according to the majority of Liverpool supporters who populate the internet. Because, as per usual, the sky is falling.


Everyone Loves Transfer Windows


With the season starting in just four days, Liverpool have added just three players. One exceptionally talented attacker, one defensive signing in a necessary position, and one surprisingly promising young striker.


But Liverpool have also missed out on two of their top three targets, at least so far. RB Leipzig refuses to consider selling Naby Keita, despite Liverpool reportedly offering something in the region of double the club's record transfer fee. Virgil van Dijk remains a possibility considering his transfer request on Monday, but even if it happens – and that's still a rather substantial if – it's a deal that should have been done more than a month ago, and seemingly would have been had Liverpool not maladroitly attempted to tap him up.


Had Liverpool already signed those two players, this would be a very different preview.

And it appears that if Liverpool can't get those two targets, Liverpool are happy to keep their money in the bank and go with the squad they have.



At this point last season, Liverpool had brought in seven players and sold ten. So far, Liverpool have added just three – as well as Flanagan and Ward returning from loan – and have sold just three, with Randall already loaned, Ojo likely to be, and Manninger having retired. It's not quite three in, three out, as those coming in are almost certain to play a lot more minutes than the three departing, and play in different positions. Also, I had honestly forgotten that Andre Wisdom was still technically a Liverpool player.

The lack of turnover is not a bad thing. Liverpool added seven players in the summer of 2016. Liverpool added seven players in the summer of 2015. Liverpool added nine players in the summer of 2014. There has been an insane amount of change over the last few years. Last season's Liverpool was one of their best in the last decade, and a bit of stability isn't unwarranted.



18 of Liverpool's 27 most-likely squad players have or will have debuted within the last three seasons, including six of Saturday's likely starting XI. Liverpool's longest serving player had played just 50 games, and probably won't add many to that total this season. Jordan Henderson's the only player with more than 200 appearances for the club. Lucas Leiva, just sold this summer, had more than twice as many Liverpool appearances than every other player bar Henderson, Coutinho, and Mignolet. That will probably still be the case next season, too.

And this is still a fairly young team; last season, only Southampton and Tottenham had a younger average age. It's a Liverpool side that's just now entering its peak years.



There are two players older than 30 in this squad: Ragnar Klavan and James Milner. Both Mignolet and Lallana will turn 30 late in the season.

It is time for this team to settle. And prove what they can do in the prime of their careers.


That said, there's always room for improvement, and a couple of positions in need of upgrading. And we all remember how a title challenge turned into a race for top four during the winter because of injuries, absences, squad depth, and fixture congestion.


Squad Depth



Yes, midfield and wide forward might be understaffed. Probably are understaffed. Liverpool have a lot of players capable of playing in these positions, but they're potentially needed in other areas, and better in other areas. If both Mané and Salah miss out, Firmino's moved wide or Coutinho's moved forward. Sturridge, Origi, and Ings can all work from wider positions if absolutely necessary, but it's certainly not ideal. If both Henderson and Can miss out, Liverpool are reliant on Wijnaldum or Milner dropping deeper. Which, again, certainly doesn't seem ideal.

Incidentally, two of the three players sold this summer were holding midfielders, with one of those two also starting ten matches (six in the league, four in the cups) at center-back.

And center-back remains my biggest concern. By some distance. Maybe there's still hope for Virgil van Dijk, and he'd be an outstanding addition, but I remain convinced that Liverpool need someone, anyone. Liverpool currently have just four players capable of playing center-back. Matip's great. But the other three are the oldest player in the squad, a 20-year-old with 10 Liverpool appearances (the majority at right-back) who's missed big chunks of the last two seasons with injury, and Dejan Lovren.

Dejan Lovren has missed at least nine league games, if not more, in all three of his Liverpool seasons. Somehow, he has the exact amount of appearances as Alberto Moreno, having signed in the same summer, with Moreno barely even getting to look at the pitch last season.

P.S. – this is not license to start talking about Mamadou Sakho as if "Mamadou Sakho, Liverpool player" is a concept based anywhere near reality. You're just gonna get yourself all worked up for no reason.

We're already seeing some of these concerns bear out. Lallana's out for two or three months, Clyne apparently for a couple of weeks, and Henderson, Coutinho, and Sturridge all missed the last friendly with minor issues. And while, yes, preseason, the starting XI was a bit frightening: Mignolet; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Lovren, Moreno; Grujic, Can, Milner; Salah, Origi, Firmino. The team looks a bit better when adding Wijnaldum and Mané – who came on in the second half – but it's barely August and we're already fretting over injuries and depth.

That's not the best sign.

At a minimum, Liverpool are playing 48 games this season. 38 in the league, eight in Europe (two qualifiers and six in the group stage, whether it's in the Champions League or Europa League), and one in each domestic cup. And that's highly unlikely. You'd except Liverpool to win at least a couple of domestic cup matches, and at least get to the first knockout stage of the Europa League, whether by losing in the CL playoff round and progressing through the EL group stage or by finishing third in their Champions League group.


Liverpool played 47 matches last season.



Formation and First-Choice XI



We're pretty sure what formation Liverpool will be playing in the majority of those 48+ matches. The same formation we saw in almost every match last season, the same we saw in almost every moment this preseason.

And Liverpool have a very, very strong first XI. From basically front-to-back.

When everyone's fit, the attack is beyond reproach. I'll put it up against anyone in the league. Even Manchester City. Even Chelsea. The midfield's got a bit of everything: creativity, passing, tackling, dribbling, and players capable of scoring from both inside and outside of the box. Yes, the defense remains concerning. Lovren and Matip each have their issues, but were good together last season when they actually had a consistent run of games. Left-back is up for grabs – Milner will probably be first up, but I expect Robertson to make the position his own as the season goes on, and those two plus a rehabilitated Moreno should be enough cover. Similar can be said for the goalkeeping position. In theory, Karius has the most tools and the most room to grow, but there can and probably will be brain farts, and we can't forget how crucial Mignolet was in last season's run-in.

When there are more than a few players absent, well, *gulps, tugs collar*. But, to be fair, that's the case for almost every side in the division.

With five strikers on the books – as long as Sturridge and Ings are healthy, as long as Solanke and Origi continue to progress – a 4-4-2 formation seems a reasonable alternative if the squad becomes stretched.




Either way, Liverpool are going to attack. Liverpool are going to press. Liverpool are very much built for both of these traits. Liverpool are going to make it hard for the opposition to get shots, and hopefully Liverpool will make it harder for the opposition to get goals. Practice may well eventually make perfect.

Liverpool will have a lot of possession against 13 or so teams in the league, and will need to be better at breaking them down. Mo Salah should absolutely help with that, Coutinho in midfield should absolutely help with that. Liverpool will look to counter, thrust, and absolutely dagger the other five or six, just as they did last season.

To a certain extent, we know – and the opposition knows – what we're getting with Liverpool.


Oh, yeah, there are other teams too


And it's not as if the opposition's stood still. Chelsea have added Morata, Bakayoko, and Rüdiger, ostensibly an improvement in attack, midfield, and defense to last season's title winners. City have added Mendy, Walker, Bernardo Silva, Ederson, and Danilo, rebuilding the full-back position, fixing the weak spot in goal, and adding yet another attacking midfielder. Arsenal now have Lacazette. United now have Lukaku, as well as Matic and Lindelof, three more orcs for Mourinho's horde. Everton spent their Lukaku money on Pickford, Klassen, Michael Keane, and Sandro, and are still making cooing noises at The Gylfi. Only Tottenham haven't added anyone, yet, and it's not as if that team needs much work.

The Top 6, Top 7 if we're being charitable, gets stronger and stronger every season. But matches against their peers aren't where Liverpool have struggled. Sides that already gave Liverpool issues last season will be better too. Leicester added Iheanacho. Bournemouth added Ake, Begovic, and Defoe – two of whom scored against Liverpool last season. West Ham's got Arnautovic, Chicharito, and Joe Hart. Etc, etc, etc.

And there will be no easy stretches of games next season, whether it's the Champions League play-off followed by Arsenal and City in the next month; a back-to-back against United and Tottenham with Europe sandwiched in-between in October; a festive schedule against bottom-half sides, but with two matches against teams who beat Liverpool last season; or a trip to Chelsea in May with hopefully all still to play for.

I would appreciate the Premier League not being this good of a league.


In conclusion, Libya is a land of, wait, I made this joke last season

But the sky is not falling. And the internet being reactionary should be news to no one.

Sure, there are some genuine fears and complaints. But the complaints and fears aside, warranted or unwarranted, Liverpool do have a lot to be optimistic about. Liverpool were really good at times last season, and Liverpool still have all the players responsible for it. Mohamed Salah is one of the best signings any side's made this summer.

And Liverpool still have Jürgen Klopp, one of the best managers in the world, whose Dortmund team made the leap from fifth to first in Klopp's third season. Dortmund's goals scored total rose by 13 that campaign, and goals conceded total dropped by 20 – and that was with adding only one defender, a right-back, in that summer window.

This Liverpool side is a settled side, one that should be entering its peak years, with a settled style.

Everything may not be as perfect as we'd like it. This summer hasn't been wholly ideal. But the sky is not falling. And this should still be a very good team that has a very good season.

Liverpool Season Preview 2016-17

For reasons both internal and external, no one has really any idea where Liverpool will finish this season.

Could Liverpool win the league? I mean, maybe. I guess. We all saw what Leicester did last season. Can't hurt to hope. (It always hurts to hope.) 


Could Liverpool finish Top 4? Absolutely. They've got the talent, they've got the manager.


Could Liverpool improve but only finish sixth or seventh? Without a doubt.

It's up to Liverpool, but it's not up to Liverpool.


The Season That Was...

According to the fancy stats, Liverpool weren't bad in 2015-16. A lot of the time, Liverpool didn't look just the eighth-best side in the country. 3-1 Chelsea, 4-1 and 3-0 Manchester City, 4-0 Everton, 4-1 Stoke, 3-3 Arsenal, etc., not to mention that Europa League run. In addition to the European final, Liverpool made it to the League Cup final, only losing on penalties. They were only the second side to beat champions Leicester, who lost only three times all season, and the first to hold Leicester scoreless.

Liverpool took the second-most shots in the league and allowed the second-fewest shots. Liverpool had the third-best total shot differential and the third-best shots on-target differential, behind Manchester City and Tottenham in both categories. By Michael Caley's numbers, Liverpool had the fifth-best Expected Goals, the third-best Expected Goals allowed, and the fourth-best Expected Goal Difference.

And those stats were all an improvement on 2014-15, some by vast margins.

But in practice, Liverpool scored the sixth-most goals in the league and conceded the ninth-fewest. In practice, Liverpool conceded more goals when winning – 20 – than any other side in the league; I suspect you remember Liverpool leading Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, Sion, Everton, Southampton (twice), West Brom, Arsenal, Sunderland, Newcastle, and Sevilla, only to draw or lose. In practice, there was that stretch from the end of August through mid-February where Liverpool conceded a goal from the first shot on-target in 21 of the 26 games where Liverpool conceded.

Liverpool had real problems at the back, real problems with cohesion and fixture congestion, and real problems with injuries. And, as I suspect you also remember, Liverpool had problems up front, most specifically Liverpool's too-frequent inability to break down a deep, determined defense. See: 0-2 Newcastle, 0-3 Watford, 0-1 Manchester United, etc.

So how are Liverpool going to fix these issues?


Transfer Business



I didn't include transfer fees because A) they differ from outlet to outlet, B) incentives that may or may not be reached, and C) wages are just as important and we ain't getting those confirmed, but it's a net spend of around £20m. Which will be in the negative numbers as soon as Liverpool can find someone to take Christian Benteke.

Two central midfielders, two central defenders, two goalkeepers, and a blazing fast, goal-scoring winger in; bits and bobs and Ibe and Skrtel and Joe Allen out.

The ten players sold by Liverpool – plus the loaned-out Flanagan, Bogdan, and Ward – played 5,745 league minutes for Liverpool last season. The seven players signed by Liverpool played 17,149 league minutes for their sides last season. None, except Manninger, have been added just to make up the numbers.

By position, Mané replaces Ibe, Wijnaldum replaces Allen, Matip and Klavan replace Skrtel and Toure, Grujic replaces Rossiter (kind of), Karius and Manninger replace Ward and Bogdan (for now). Most of the players that Liverpool sold (aside from the center-backs and Allen) featured infrequently last season. Every player that Liverpool bought is an upgrade.


More importantly, all of these signings have addressed problem areas. Mané provides much needed speed and goals in attack, replacing a pacy young winger who did little more than dribble. Karius provides much needed competition for Mignolet. Wijnaldum and Grujic should provide more pressing, mobility, and goals from midfield. Matip and Klavan will assuredly be better defenders (and passers) than Skrtel and Toure.

Both Mané and Wijnaldum are shot monsters from inside the box; while Liverpool took the second-most shots in the league last season, only five teams – Watford, Swansea, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Stoke – took a lower proportion of their shots from inside the box than Liverpool last season. Mané, Wijnaldum, and Grujic can all press and hassle when out of possession. Matip, Grujic, and Klavan add height to a squad that desperately needs it, and at 5'9", both Mané and Wijnaldum are more than capable in the air, both having scored multiple headers last season.


There seems a cohesive plan behind the signings, and it's an extension of the plan Liverpool started to implement last season, while also also addressing last season's weaknesses.

Liverpool still have players to get rid of: Benteke and Balotelli almost certainly, possibly Markovic, Luis Alberto, and Andre Wisdom, among others, as well. Liverpool still have a big (if unbalanced and too mediocre) squad and Liverpool will play something like 10-15 fewer games this campaign. And Liverpool could and probably should still add another player or two: there's a massive hole at left-back, and a slightly smaller hole at right-back. 



Preseason

We saw the best of Liverpool and the worst of Liverpool in this summer's nine (!!!) preseason matches.

It's rarely smart or safe to read too much into preseason, but Liverpool were unconscionably good at both ends of the pitch against Barcelona. Liverpool were less good but still impressive against AC Milan. An understrength Liverpool looked competent against lower league opposition in the first three matches.

But Liverpool were much less impressive against Chelsea and Roma, and abhorrent against Mainz, albeit with a very different XI one day after the Barcelona match.


So what did we learn? Liverpool have the potential to be very good: if they're firing on all cylinders, if they have space to counter-attack, if they don't make mistakes in defense. And Liverpool still have the potential to be last season's Liverpool: stuttering against deep, determined defenses and vulnerable on set plays and counter-attacks.

We learned that Liverpool will press even more ferociously; it's no coincidence that all four goals against Barcelona came from winning possession high up the pitch. We learned that Mané adds a much-needed new dimension to Liverpool's attack, that Marko Grujic might be more ready than initially thought, that we should expect much more dynamism from midfield this season, and that Liverpool's preferred formation appears to be a 4-3-3 rather than the 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 we saw most often last season, at least for now.


Tactics and Formation

Once again, we enter a season not entirely sure of what Liverpool's best XI, or preferred formation, actually is. This is one of the (many) downsides of needing to sign three, four, five new starters every summer.


It *seems* that 4-3-3 will be the most frequently used formation given what we've seen over the last month.




This formation appears to be somewhat similar to the 4-3-2-1 formation which Klopp first deployed upon joining Liverpool, but Liverpool will look to get much more from central midfield: more pressing, more players in the box, more shots, more goals. Wijnaldum specifically was bought to break lines and get into the box. Lallana looks more likely to play in this position rather than in attack. Both Henderson and Can are capable of getting forward, even if we've not seen enough from either during their Liverpool careers. Coutinho will cheat infield, Firmino and/or Sturridge will drop deep, and Mané will run in behind, as will Origi when he plays.

And in theory, a three-man midfield will offer more protection to what was a sometimes vulnerable defense last season, as long as they've got the legs to get back and get into position. So far, it looks as if Wijnaldum, Lallana, Henderson, Grujic, and Can have the legs.

But Liverpool have options.




4-2-3-1 still seems to me the best way of getting Liverpool's two biggest goal-threats – Sturridge and Firmino – on the pitch. We've learned over the last two seasons that Liverpool cannot rely on Sturridge's availability, but when he's available, he's Liverpool's best scorer. There's no argument about it. Liverpool are a better side when he plays. And I suspect he'll be better in this formation.

As we saw last season, this 4-2-3-1 can easily become 4-4-2 with both Sturridge and Origi or Ings playing, and even when Firmino partners one of the strikers.

Liverpool will almost certainly start the season with this 4-3-3/4-3-2-1 formation, but don't expect to always see this formation. I'm not saying Liverpool will rotate heavily – and Klopp's definitively saying Liverpool won't rotate heavily. The last time Liverpool were without European football, in 2013-14, only 16 players played at least 700 league minutes. Last season, it was 18, nearly 19 (Origi was 31 minutes shy), with 34 different players appearing in the league (to be fair, five of those players played one half or less). We're not seeing that this season.

But Liverpool have options, and will use the options at its disposal, as players are available and make their claims, and as Klopp sees fit.


Versatility

Beginning last season, and with almost all of this summer's signings, Liverpool have become increasingly focused on versatility, mostly in midfield and attack, but even in defense. Versatility in formations and versatility in playing positions. We've seen more of Firmino as the nine, false or not, during preseason than we did in the second half of last season. We've seen Mané on either flank or behind the striker and Lallana in both midfield and attack. Wijnaldum will play as both a midfielder in a two or three-man group, at the #10, and can even be used as a left-sided attacker if need be. Lovren has played at both center-back positions throughout preseason, and Milner looks as if he might well be first-choice left-back.

No more square pegs in round holes, because Liverpool are trying to eliminate having square pegs in the first place. Liverpool need adaptable pegs, which aligns with Klopp's "team, not players" aesthetic.


Key Players

So it's hard to pick just one or two key players. Coutinho was clearly Liverpool's most important last season: joint-third in goals, fourth in assists, joint-third in key passes, and first in total shots (league only). As went Coutinho, so went Liverpool. Firmino had more goals and assists – ten and seven, 0.77 NPG+A per 90 minutes – but Coutinho was more influential, played more of a role in more matches, for both good and ill.


Liverpool should be much better balanced this season.

In attack, an already impressive Firmino will improve in his second season, in consistency if nothing else. Mané's pace gives Liverpool something they've desperately lacked. Sturridge, Origi, and Ings should all be more available after injury-ravaged campaigns. And Coutinho should improve when not having to shoulder so much of Liverpool's creativity and scoring (shoot less, Phil!).

In midfield, Wijnaldum, Lallana (when he plays there), Henderson, and Grujic look capable of adding more open play goals than we've seen from central midfield in years; last season Liverpool only got eight – three from Milner (plus four more from penalties and set plays), two from Henderson, two from Allen, and one from Emre Can. That total will rise this season.

In defense, there's still the worry at full-back, either full-back, because Moreno remains Moreno and Milner's a midfielder and Joe Gomez is hurt again and he's really a center-back anyway and oh no what will Liverpool do if Clyne gets injured. But Liverpool will be much, much better at center-back. Matip especially is an upgrade, massively experienced for a 25-year-old and as comfortable in possession as we've seen since Agger, while Klavan also looks the part and the Lovrenaissance should continue apace. And Liverpool should be much better at goal-keeper (it's hard to be worse than a 60% save average, Simon!). At the very least, Mignolet should regress (progress?) to the mean, and I'm actually excited to see what Karius can do – as much for his distribution and claiming as his shot-stopping – once he returns from a broken hand.

And almost all of the players mentioned are either in or just hitting their prime. Coutinho, Firmino, Sturridge, Mané, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Lovren, Matip, Clyne, Moreno, and Ings are all between the 24 and 27-years-old. It's time.


Injuries

Of course, you may have noticed there are a lot of "well, if Player X stays healthy" in the above section.

Liverpool were one of the most injury-ravaged sides last season, as Sturridge, Origi, Ings, Henderson, Sakho, Gomez, etc. all missed significant time. Only relegated Newcastle had more regular starters miss more minutes. That should ease with fewer matches this season.


Nonetheless – and I don't want to go all renowned-Twitter-egg-slash-fake-doctor here – Liverpool have suffered a disproportionate amount of injuries during preseason. Sturridge, Karius, Milner, Grujic, Gomez, Sakho, and Lucas all picked up injuries of varying severity over the last six weeks, and all of them look likely to miss Sunday's trip to Arsenal at the very least.

A full preseason, a new fitness staff and physio, and no European competition should help Liverpool avoid the injury issues incurred last season. But we're not off to the most promising start. And Liverpool won't achieve what they're capable of if injuries are as debilitating as they were last season.


The Rest of the Premier League

Manchester City, Manchester United, and Chelsea all have new managers, and all of them should improve their new clubs. United added Pogba, Mkhitaryan, and Ibrahimovic. City added Sané, Stones, Gündogan, Nolito, and Marlos Moreno. Arsenal are still Arsenal, and even just adding Xhaka will make them better. Tottenham have had another summer to coalesce under Pochettino, with what was already one of the most-settled but youngest XIs in the league last season. And Leicester, who actually honestly for real won the league, have only lost N'Golo Kante (so far).

This league is stacked. It is the most stacked I've seen. And that means we could see the second-best Liverpool in the last eight seasons – aside from 2013-14, obviously – but still see Liverpool finish outside the Champions League places.

It is especially stacked at the top, but increased revenue from top to bottom means that even the bottom half will be better as well. And Liverpool have too often struggled against the so-called dross of the league.

At least United, City, Chelsea, and Arsenal are under more pressure than Liverpool. They've got to be good, right away. Liverpool, with Klopp having signed a new six-year deal (!!!), and with rightfully lower expectations, have a bit more breathing space.


August is the cruelest month, scheduling. Also, so is September.





Liverpool will face four of those aforementioned top six clubs in the first month of the season. The campaign starts at Arsenal, then Liverpool travel to Burnley and Tottenham, then the first home game of the season against Leicester, then a trip to Chelsea. And because of renovations to Anfield, Liverpool's first three matches, as well as the second round of the League Cup, will be away from home.

But that might not be as bad as it appears on first glance. Liverpool were initially better away from home after Klopp became manager, because Liverpool had space to counter and opponents to press.

Also, Liverpool were actually pretty decent in these fixtures last season. The results in those four matches last season? Draw, draw, win, win.

Liverpool have a chance to make the league take notice with its first five fixtures. It's a long campaign – it's always a long campaign – but Liverpool, like Leicester last season, need to start as they mean to continue.


In conclusion, Libya is a land of contrast...

Liverpool have added quality and needed pieces to an already interesting squad. Liverpool appear to have a coherent (and fun!) plan. Liverpool have a top-quality, charismatic manager. Liverpool aren't there yet, but Liverpool are well on their way to developing an identity.

At their best, Liverpool are tremendous to watch, a gegenpressing, crazy goal-scoring, hurricane of a side, capable of beating you up and beating you down. Yes, yes, preseason, but that Barcelona match rivaled and probably exceeded any of last season's superlative performances. At their worst, well, *looks at last season's table*.

For now, don't worry about where Liverpool will finish. Expect Liverpool will be better. Look forward to what Liverpool can and should do on the pitch.

Liverpool have those players in attack. Liverpool have Jürgen Klopp. Liverpool haven't hurt us yet.

Let's have fun.

Liverpool 2015-16 Season Preview

The less said about last season, the better. In fact, it can be summed up in just one word. Goals.

Liverpool scored 52 league goals, barely half of the previous season's total, after selling Suarez and losing Sturridge for the majority of the campaign. That goals total was the worst since 47 in Dalglish's 2011-12 horror season, and it was only the third time since 2000 that Liverpool scored 52 or fewer.

Liverpool's +4 goal difference was the joint-worst of the Premier League era, equalling the 1993-94 campaign which saw Liverpool finish 8th and fire Graeme Souness.

Liverpool's top scorer in the league had all of nine goals, four of which were penalties, one a direct free kick. That player's now plying his trade in MLS. You may have heard of him. The second highest total was scored by a 20-year-old who's now at Manchester City.

Liverpool scored 49 fewer goals than in 2013-14, but only took 61 fewer shots, created only 53 fewer chances.

From:


To:


Shooting accuracy was a problem. Shot location was a problem. Goal conversion was a problem. Slow build-up and slow attacks allowing defenders to get into position to block shots was a problem. And it seemed further proof that 2013-14 was a Suarez- and Sturridge-led aberration.

Fancy Stats (via Michael Caley):
TSR (Total Shots Ratio): 3rd
xG (Expected Goals): 5th
xGA (Expected Goals Against): 5th
xGR (Expected Goals For/Against): 5th

So, yes, Liverpool's shooting was pretty bad, but Liverpool were pretty much the fifth-best side according to the favored fancy stats. And Liverpool were in fifth prior to the last day's humiliation.

But that still wasn't good enough.

And it doesn't necessarily jibe with my memory of the season. A season that started badly and continued badly – a post-World Cup hangover combined with the need to bed in eight new players, compete in four competitions, and deal with the departure of Liverpool's top scorer and an injury to Liverpool's second-best scorer – but eventually got better thanks to the mid-season switch to 3-4-3. But just when you thought Liverpool had all the answers, someone changed the questions. And the side collapsed during the run-in, climaxing with a 1-6 loss at Stoke, Liverpool's worst defeat in 52 years.

Sure, it's a good thing that Liverpool were fairly terrible and still in the race for fourth until the final month, but the play was often a bad thing.

How are Liverpool going to fix these issues?


Summer business

In:
Christian Benteke (£32.5m)
Roberto Firmino (£29m)
Nathaniel Clyne (£12.5m)
Joe Gomez (£3.5m)
Danny Ings (TBD by tribunal)
James Milner (free)
Adam Bogdan (free)

Out:
Raheem Sterling (£49m)
Iago Aspas (£4.4m)
Sebastian Coates (£4m)
Rickie Lambert (£3m)
Steven Gerrard (free)
Glen Johnson (free)

Total In: ~£82.5-87.5m (depending on Ings' fee)
Total Out: ~£60.4m (and hopefully soon to include paltry sums for Enrique, Borini, and Balotelli)

Despite the big names and fees, that's not a huge net spend thanks to Sterling, made even narrower when factoring in the wages both Gerrard and Johnson were on. But the plan seems fairly clear.

Buy goals. That's the plan. That always needed to be the plan, and it's an obvious plan. Also, an experienced midfielder to replace Gerrard in Milner, Clyne to replace Johnson, and the usual youth prospects in Gomez and Ings, but mostly goals. Benteke, Firmino, Ings, plus Origi after last season's loan at Lille. But all except Milner are 24 or younger; FSG wouldn't have it any other way, and it makes sense given the market and Liverpool's financial powers.

Whether or not Benteke as the centerpiece – an aerially dominant target-man focal point – is the correct move has been a summer-long debate. And it'll continue to be so; his performance, more than any other summer signing, will most likely set the tone for the season. But it's not as if the European market's overflowing with available proven strikers this summer and holy wow did you see his goal last Sunday? Let's have more of that.

Liverpool seemingly bought well, even if the headline fees were higher than expected. But for the second summer in a row, Liverpool blew everything up again.


Continuity



There are a handful of players not included in the above graphic. Enrique (96 appearances), Borini (38), and Balotelli (28) because their sales are apparently imminent; Wisdom (22), Luis Alberto (12), and Williams (1) because they're on loan; and Sinclair (3), Yesil (2) and Ilori (0) because who knows what's going on with them and I wouldn't be surprised if none see first-team minutes this season. But aside from Enrique, those players barely make dents in an already sparse appearances total.

Most notably, there are just four players who predate Brendan Rodgers' tenure: Martin Skrtel, Lucas Leiva, Jon Flanagan and Jordan Henderson. Well, again, five if you count Jose Enrique, but come on, no one counts Jose Enrique. And that's it. Those five players are the only ones who've seen Liverpool lift a trophy: the League Cup in 2011-12, with only Skrtel, Henderson, and Enrique on the pitch for the final.

Just four players who've made more than 100 appearances for Liverpool. Just seven who've made more than 50. And that's all competitions, not just the league. 14 first-team players either signed or brought up from the academy in the last 14 months.

The total number of Liverpool appearances for the above list of 26 players is just 11 more appearances than Carragher and Gerrard made in their Liverpool careers.

For the second-straight season, there is a startling lack of continuity in the side, a startling lack of institutional memory in the side, made even more dramatic by the inevitable (and necessary) departures of Gerrard and Johnson.


Key Players

• Henderson: Henderson has some very large boots to fill. Not necessarily on the pitch, where he's been one of Liverpool's better players for a couple of seasons now, but off it. He's Liverpool's first new captain in more than a decade. At all of 25 years old, he's Liverpool's third-most capped player. He is expected to be a leader, both in the dressing room and on the field. And, like Liverpool as a whole, where he needs to improve the most is in front of goal.

• Coutinho: One of Liverpool's lone bright spots in attack last season, he'll continue to be the hub of most of what's good, charged with setting up Liverpool's two new stars and Sturridge when he returns. Like Henderson, he's necessarily experienced beyond his age, one of Liverpool's veterans at all of 23-years-old. And chances are, if Liverpool maintain the formation we've seen so far, he'll have to do it from a wide position, at least in name, rather than his preferred central berth.

• Benteke: It's not fair to saddle him with constant references to his fee or Liverpool's most expensive transfer, but it's going to happen. He's the main man now, seemingly Liverpool's top priority all summer long. He's simply got to justify that. Because, as you may have heard, Liverpool desperately need goals from somewhere.

• Sturridge: Can he get fit and stay fit? Because if he can, this is a very, very different team.

Henderson aside, those are all attackers. It's not as if Liverpool's defense was blame-free last season (*glares at Lovren* *glares at Skrtel* *glares at Moreno* *glares back at Lovren*). But it was arguably Liverpool's best defensive season under Rodgers, conceding just 1.10 goals in all competitions, albeit rising to 1.26 in the league. Which was at least still better than the 1.32 conceded per league match in 2013-14. Liverpool conceded 47 league goals last season, 50 in 2013-14, and 43 in 2012-13. We pretty much know what's going to happen at the back.

Liverpool's success will be determined by Liverpool's attack: whether or not that attack improves enough, whether or not that attack improves at all. And how quickly that attack settles into place.


The First Choice XI



We've seen a little bit of the diamond and a little bit of the 4-2-3-1 in preseason, but 4-3-3 has been Rodgers' preferred formation. Which isn't necessarily a surprise; it's seemingly always been his preferred formation, forced into changes in previous seasons by injuries or poor form. And it's not difficult to see how Liverpool's current personnel fit into that formation. Benteke or Sturridge or Ings or Origi up front; two from Coutinho, Firmino, Lallana, and Ibe out wide; three from Henderson, Milner, Allen, Can, and Lucas in midfield; Clyne and Moreno or Gomez at fullback; Skrtel and Lovren or Sakho in defense.

With those additions, Liverpool have more firepower up front than last season. With Milner (and more time for Emre Can in his preferred position), Liverpool are more dynamic in midfield. Clyne's certainly an upgrade on Johnson/Manquillo/Can, but for the most part, the defense remains the defense, more reliant on eliminating the individual mistakes which cost Liverpool both goals and points last season.

From front to back, it's a stronger side than last season. And it's a deeper side, two or three reasonable options at every position, ideally capable of competing in both the league and Europe.

But that might not be the first choice XI when Sturridge is fit.

If both Benteke and Sturridge are available, that firepower seemingly demands a diamond, a formation that'd see some favored players left out, but one that also fits with the talents of Firmino, Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, and Henderson, among others.

Nor is it out of the question to see Sturridge ostensibly on the right of a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with Benteke central, a formation we sometimes saw with Suarez in the second half of 2012-13 and first half of 2013-14.



Once again, Liverpool have options. Brendan Rodgers loves options.


Start As You Mean To Finish

But options can be both a good and bad thing.

Having options didn't work out so well at the start of the 2012-13 and 2014-15 campaigns. A new manager not wholly familiar with his (not especially good) squad in the former, an attempt to replace Suarez (and, for the majority of the time, Sturridge) while getting eight new players settled in the latter. It took months for Rodgers to find some semblance of consistency, some semblance of form, and a preferred formation. It's arguable that Liverpool spent all of last season looking for a preferred formation without finding it.

Liverpool doesn't have that luxury this season. Liverpool has very little margin for error this season. Not with this start to this season, its first seven away matches against Stoke (*gulp*), Arsenal, United, Everton, Tottenham, and Chelsea, and Manchester City. I suspect it's why we've seen a surprisingly settled lineup during preseason. Brendan Rodgers has very little margin for error.

As This is Anfield pointed out yesterday, when Liverpool start well, the season usually goes well. When Liverpool start poorly, Liverpool usually find it difficult to make up the gap. It is far easier to maintain momentum than stumble upon midseason form.



And with the Europa League starting on September 17 – incidentally, after Liverpool's fifth league match – it'll become a lot harder to make up any lost ground.

This summer has to be different from last summer. Or else Brendan Rodgers won't be around to see if the third rebuild's the charm.


So, Where Will Liverpool Finish?

Four teams look much better than Liverpool. Chances are that Chelsea and City will finish first and second, again, although City certainly didn't finish all that impressively and they've only added Fabian Delph and some lad named Raheem Sterling. It's easy to see a settled Arsenal breaking into that duopoly, but it'd also be very Arsenal if they were plagued by injuries and fell back. Manchester United could continue to improve under van Gaal – Depay's an incredibly frightening signing – or could implode under van Gaal because van Gaal.

Which leaves Liverpool hoping that its rivals fail as much as Liverpool hope to succeed. Which is never a promising starting point, but the league is what the league is.

Could Liverpool finish fourth? Yeah, maybe, although I wouldn't bet any significant sum on it. Could Liverpool improve on last season's morass and still finish fifth or even sixth? Yeah, easily.

The league is what the league is. Sure, there's always a surprise or two, but it's not often that surprise comes at the top of the table. And Liverpool currently look like the fifth strongest team in the league.

It's all well and good to demand fourth. Liverpool look to be stronger and more settled than last season, Liverpool bought good players, things have to get better. And chances are, they will. But rebuilds take time. A squad coalescing usually takes time. Catching up to the more established, richer Top 4 usually takes time.

Brendan Rodgers may not have that time.

2013-14 Liverpool Season Preview

This isn't quite a "make or break" season, but we're getting there.

Last season was something of a write-off. New manager, a new playing style, and a handful of new players. All we really wanted was some sort of tangible progress we could point to, to say "yes, there might finally be some light at the end of this interminable tunnel." Which we got, especially in the second half of the season, despite finishing a disappointing seventh.

Summer Business:
In: Luis Alberto (£6.8m), Iago Aspas (£7m), Simon Mignolet (£9m), Kolo Toure (free) = £22.8m
Out: Jamie Carragher (retired), Andy Carroll (£15m), Stewart Downing (£6m), Pepe Reina (loan), Jonjo Shelvey (£6m), Jay Spearing (£1.7m) = £28.7m

If you count January transfers, all of Liverpool's business has been straight swaps. Sturridge for Carroll, Coutinho for Shelvey, Mignolet for Reina, Aspas for Downing, Toure for Carragher, and Luis Alberto for Joe Cole. Spearing, on loan, didn't feature in last season's side, and probably doesn't need replacing in Rodgers' eyes. Each new signing is arguably better than the Liverpool player they're taking over for – except Toure for Carragher, although Kolo's looked a more than decent player during preseason. Just as importantly in FSG's view, each is younger, and is on substantially lower wages without reducing the overall quality in the side. Coupled with January's deals, Liverpool's net transfer spend in the calendar year is around £15m, not counting the massive reduction in wages.

Unfortunately, despite the excellent start to this summer's business, Liverpool haven't added anyone since July 1, with Alberto, Aspas, Mignolet, and Toure all wrapped up before the transfer window even opened.

Mkhitaryan? Nope. Diego Costa? Staying at Atletico on an improved contract. Papadopoulos, or some other colossus center-back? Nope. Competition for Lucas? Incredibly unlikely. Competition for Enrique? Not yet, although there are rumors that Granada's Guilherme Siqueira could be imminent.

If the above is the end of Liverpool's transfer dealings, so be it. The squad is better. And younger and cheaper, but more importantly, better. But it could be even better than it is. There have been too many lost opportunities over the last five years.

And then there was the whole Suarez fiasco. At least Liverpool seemingly played that well. No bid came in from Real Madrid or Bayern, and with Arsenal the only suitor, Liverpool refused to sell. Rightfully so. I'd have sold an unhappy Suarez to Real for £40m. I wouldn't have sold to Arsenal for £140m. You don't strength direct competitors, something Arsenal painfully learned with van Persie last season.

But I'll be honest. I still don't necessarily see where Luis fits into the team that Rodgers is building.

Expected Formation and Suspected Depth Chart:



I truly expected Suarez to leave this summer, and while it may still happen, it does not look likely. The signings of Aspas and Luis Alberto, and the pursuit of players such as Mkhitaryan and Diego Costa only fed into that notion. All seemed signings meant to help replace Suarez rather than co-exist with him.

Liverpool with Sturridge and Coutinho looked a completely different side in the second half of the season. And Suarez looked a different player, one who was beginning to fit into a team rather than being the team's sole shining light: averaging more than a shot less per match after Sturridge's debut – 5.75 compared to 4.6 – but putting more of his shots on target – 2.0 compared to 2.62– with only a small drop in goals per game and almost exactly the same number of chances created per game. Meanwhile, Sturridge chipped in with 10 league goals over 14 games, putting 62% of his shots on target, while Coutinho picked up the slack in chance creation, totaling the same number of assists in 13 games as Suarez did in 33. Only Santi Cazorla averaged more accurate throughballs per match than Coutinho last season.

When you have world class players – and Suarez remains a world class player, no matter his baggage – you make it work. But Sturridge has looked most effective as the spearhead. Coutinho has looked most effective when playing as the #10. Suarez has been vastly more effective in those two positions. Does that mean Suarez is relegated to the flank, where he's frequently failed to impress, or Coutinho is?

The easy answer to that question is "it depends on the opposition." And that will probably be the case. If it's, say, Arsenal away, maybe Liverpool line up like they did last season, with Suarez on the left, Sturridge central, and Coutinho on the bench in order to use three central midfielders. But if it's Norwich or Palace or Hull at home, we could see similar to the team which beat Swansea at home in February: Sturridge and Suarez central, with Coutinho cutting inside from the left. While neither Suarez nor Sturridge looked anywhere near their best the few times each was used on the flanks, using either there remains a possibility, one that may well improve with time. And if one of Liverpool's multi-functional attackers are missing – say, due to suspension – Liverpool have a variety of replacements, the option to change either personnel or formation. Options aren't a bad thing to have.

Brendan Rodgers is building a team full of multi-functional attackers. Besides Suarez, Coutinho, and (to a lesser extent) Sturridge, Aspas can play on the right or as the main striker. Supposedly, Luis Alberto can play pretty much anywhere in attack. Both Sterling and Ibe can line up on either flank. Fabio Borini played in all three attacking positions last season (we'll avoid mentioning how well he did in those roles, mind). Henderson and Allen can play any of the three midfield positions, while I still think Henderson's best position in this Liverpool side might well be on the left.

But, yes, there are still glaring weaknesses. Most notably, another center-back, especially given Liverpool's weaknesses last season – especially in the air – as well as a left-back to challenge Jose Enrique, but also cover for Lucas – unless Rodgers believes that Allen and/or Henderson are more equipped to fill that role than they were in 2012-13.

Could Liverpool finish fourth, even without any more additions? Actually, yes. The squad's marginally better, and had a decent offseason and preseason to build on the gains made from January on. In the last 19 games of last season, Tottenham were only three points better than Liverpool, Arsenal four. Arsenal haven't strengthened (yet) – partly thanks to Liverpool. Tottenham have, but their squad isn't that much better than Liverpool's, and they're ostensibly in the same position as Liverpool in keeping a potentially unhappy talisman, with fewer possible replacements in the squad. Who knows how the Bale situation plays out. In complete contrast to last season, Liverpool have one of the easiest opening halves of their campaign, and could build up some serious momentum by January. Winning begets winning, after all.

But could Liverpool finish sixth? Easily. That's probably the more likely result. And if it happens, it may well be cause for alarm. But it also may well be the fair result. Liverpool have a lot of ground to make up to catch up with Tottenham and Arsenal, let alone the best three clubs in the division. Liverpool could make up a fair bit of that ground and still finish behind them. Like last season, what will matter is progress: if we saw it, and how much of it.

Needed improvements:
• Shooting: Just read this. Also, see this image from Dan Kennett's excellent season preview on Stats Bomb.

• Aerial duels: Only Wigan won fewer last season. And, statistically, Kolo Toure's even worse in the air than Carragher. Gulp.

• Mentality: WBA (a), Arsenal (h), Tottenham (a), Aston Villa (h), United (a), WBA (h), Southampton (a)

Those are the matches Liverpool lost after conceding first.

- Sunderland (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), City (a), Chelsea (h)

Those are the matches Liverpool drew after conceding first.

- Aston Villa (a), Fulham (a)

Those are the matches that Liverpool won after conceding first. Just two, both in the final two months of the season.

When Liverpool scored early, Liverpool usually ran riot. Norwich (twice), Wigan, Fulham, Swansea, Sunderland, QPR, and Newcastle. The only match Liverpool lost after scoring in the opening quarter of the game was at Stoke, a 1-3 defeat after Gerrard's 2nd-minute penalty; as usual, Stoke's the exception that proves the rule. The only other loss after scoring first was the home match against United, where a ten-man Liverpool took the lead early in the second half but lost 1-2 after a contentious winning penalty from van Persie.

But when Liverpool concede early, Liverpool all too often struggle. The above list of fixtures, and – if, for some reason, we're putting stock in preseason – last week's friendly against Celtic spring immediately to mind. Draws from that situation against the likes of Chelsea (twice) and City at least demonstrate that the side was more resilient than the soul-killing 2011-12 model, but there's still a too frequent pattern to Liverpool losses, especially losses against teams Liverpool should expect to beat. Allow an unlikely opener, then fail to break through a resolute defense despite overwhelming possession and numerous chances. Liverpool will need to continue the slow but steady improvement in this area that we saw as last season went on.

But that's pretty much the mantra for every facet of this campaign.

2012-13 Liverpool Season Preview

Year Zero? Year Zero.

Is this the third year zero or the first? It's the third year in a row where Liverpool have started the season with a new manager, something that's never happened in the club's 120-year history. Brendan Rodgers replaces Dalglish who replaced Hodgson who replaced Benitez. But if Hodgson wasn't year zero and Dalglish wasn't year zero, why is Rodgers?

Hodgson was the last dismal dying breath of the previous owners' malignant regime. Dalglish was never FSG's choice for Liverpool's renaissance, with their hand forced by the surprisingly improved results during the 2010-11 run-in. Brendan Rodgers is FSG's first manager, and their ownership will be defined by his results – not necessarily this season's results, but over the long term. Because this is a long-term hire. Which is why this is much more a year zero than any Liverpool season since 2004-05.

Summer Business:
In: Joe Allen (£15m), Fabio Borini (£10.4m) = £25.4m
Out: Alberto Aquilani (£7m), Fabio Aurelio (free), Craig Bellamy (free), Dirk Kuyt (£1m), Maxi Rodriguez (free) = £8m

Rodgers impressed FSG so much that they did away with their notion of a director of football, although Damien Comolli's almost-wholly inauspicious tenure may have made that an easier decision.

Comolli's one true success – aside from signing Luis Suarez, of course – was last summer's deadwood clear-out. Joe Cole somehow found his way back, but Konchesky, Poulsen, Jovanovic, Kyrgiakos, El Zhar, and Degen got gone and stayed gone, saving Liverpool millions after Hicks, Gillett, Purslow, and Hodgson wasted more millions on their purchases and salaries.

And as with last summer, Liverpool prioritized clearing out older players on relatively high wages, slash-and-burn agriculture so new fields can start from scratch. Or as close to scratch as possible.

If reports are to be believed, Rodgers didn't want to lose either Bellamy and Maxi – both would have fit fairly flawlessly into the new system – but relented to let them join boyhood favorites in their home countries. How touching. Kuyt was one of Liverpool's highest earners and a fan favorite, but his increasingly decreasing output made him more than expendable. We've finally passed the point of no return with Alberto Aquilani: no more band-aid loans, no more false hope that this might be the year where he returns to save the world. All, along with the sadly perpetually-broken Fabio Aurelio, cost Liverpool more than they were worth to the club or Rodgers' squad.

Rodgers first two signings followed this new template. Both are under 22, Premiership-experienced, teeming-with-potential starlets who've already made international debuts. Both are prototypical Rodgers-style players who Rodgers has managed before, and both fill problem areas from last season's Liverpool squad. And, incidentally, neither happen to be English.

The summer's business isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, and probably won't be until the last minute and last second of the transfer window. Liverpool will continue to try to sell Carroll, hoping that someone will pay somewhere near £20m and Carroll might actually agree to the move. We can scream, shout, and threaten all we want, but if City stump up £27m, Daniel Agger will probably depart as well. I am not liable for my words or actions if that happens, but we'll burn that bridge if we come to it.

Despite a still somewhat-too-shallow squad, there's only one huge hole apparent. And it's the drum I've been banging all summer: Liverpool needs needs needs at least one more wide forward to compete with Borini, Downing, Sterling, and Cole (and sometimes, possibly, Suarez). We've seen Clint Dempsey, Cristian Tello, Theo Walcott, Adam Johnson, and Gaston Ramirez mooted, but we've no idea who, if any, the club prefers. Or could get. Which, I guess, it how it should be. That Shelvey was used there for 45 minutes in Sunday's friendly – a position he played while on loan at Blackpool but assuredly isn't his best – demonstrates that the manager's cognizant of the issue as well. But whether he's able to rectify it before August 31 remains to be seen.

Expected Formation and Suspected Depth Chart:



Otherwise, Liverpool has a fairly strong first XI, and a fair bit of depth in certain positions. With the signing of Joe Allen, Liverpool has an impressive, versatile, and relatively youthful central midfield. Nearly every three-man midfield is built on the creator-passer-destroyer archetype: Gerrard, Henderson, Shelvey, and potentially Adam can play as the attacking midfielder creator; Allen, Henderson, Shelvey, and Adam can fill the passer role; and Lucas, Allen, and Spearing can play as the deeper destroyer. All but Gerrard are 26 or younger; Adam is 26, Lucas 25, Spearing 23, Allen and Henderson 22, and Shelvey is 20. If Liverpool sign Nuri Sahin on loan, as has been heavily rumored, the midfield will be even stronger, but that would seemingly demand someone make way, whether it's Shelvey loaned out or Adam sold.

If Agger stays (pleasepleaseplease don't make me beg), Liverpool's first-choice defense should remain one of the strongest in the league. He and Skrtel are arguably the best center-back pairing in the Premiership, while Glen Johnson is one of the best right-backs and Jose Enrique – for all his faults, especially in the opposition half – is at least "above average." Only City and United conceded fewer goals last season, with 29 and 33 to Liverpool's 40 (Everton also conceded 40). As with everywhere else in the squad, depth is a concern (except at right back), but Carragher remains serviceable – and, on the whole, impressed in preseason – while Coates has clear potential. Danny Wilson, Stephen Sama, and Andre Wisdom all made preseason appearances as well, and could all benefit from loan moves. Jack Robinson is another for the future, while both Johnson and Kelly can also deputize at left-back if need be.

Suarez, Borini, and Carroll (with the now-usual "if he stays" caveat) can all play as the central striker, with Morgan as fourth-choice back-up if the other three are somehow absent. None can replicate Suarez's all-around brilliance, but Borini has played as the focal point in Rodgers' system before, while Carroll demonstrated that there's at least a chance that he can fit in this style of play against Bayer Leverkusen.

However, the flanks remain an rather large issue. If Downing can continue in the form he's shown on the right in these very early matches, the Borini-Suarez-Downing troika could be very impressive; how they linked up against Gomel is the template, and in theory, should get even better as they familiarize with the system and each other. But if Borini or Suarez are missing, Liverpool could well be in trouble. Deep trouble.

Liverpool are going to play 4-3-3. Whether it's a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-2-3 variant remains to be seen, but the last three matches suggest the former will be the dominant version. Even if Suarez or Gerrard or Lucas or Borini or Allen or whomever is missing, that will almost certainly remain the preferred formation. Liverpool will have to find a way to plug those holes if key players are missing, because the pattern of play will likely remain the same. On the whole, Liverpool should be able to compensate if one or even two of those players are absent, as long as it's not for an extended spell. Any more than that, however…

Miscellaneous Thoughts, Comments, Concerns…
• Whither Fortress Anfield? If we're starting from square one, the first task is improving Liverpool's home form. Liverpool's Anfield winning percentage last season was an abhorrent 32%. Six wins, nine draws, and four losses. A possible 57 points and Liverpool earned just 27, an average of 1.42 points-per-game. The last time Liverpool failed to win less than half of its league matches at Anfield? 2002-03. Prior to that? 1969-1970. Despite the multiple, egregious failings in 2009-10 and 2010-11, Liverpool still won 68% and 63% of its home matches. Hopefully the new red nets portend a better future. It can't get much worse.

• We always complain about the difficulty of the first few fixtures and the necessity of a strong start to begin the campaign on the right foot. But it's exceptionally true this season. Liverpool will face last season's top three within the first five games, albeit at home, with trips to West Brom – against Liverpool's previous assistant manager – and Sunderland – where Liverpool have lost in two of the last three seasons – rounding out the bunch. Incidentally, Sunderland away was the last opening day fixture which Liverpool won, way back in August 2008. Since then, Liverpool have lost, drawn, and drawn its first league match.

The Europa League will also impact those league fixtures. Matches against Manchester City and Arsenal will take place three days after the two legs against Hearts; neither City nor Arsenal will have Champions League matches that week. If Liverpool qualify for the group stage, they'll play United (H), Stoke (H), Everton (A), Chelsea (A), Swansea (A), and West Ham (A) after each of the six group matches. Liverpool's schedule will be far more compressed this season – matches will come fast and furious, on the dreaded Thursday/Sunday schedule more often than not – and it's still more than debatable whether Liverpool has the squad to cope.

• And whether or not Liverpool has the squad to cope with the amount of matches, the club will also remain fairly reliant on Suarez and Gerrard. That's not to downplay the importance of, say, Lucas – especially Lucas, which last season painfully proved – or Agger or Reina, but only those two lightning rods can grab the game by its cliched 'scruff of the neck,' evidenced by the dramatic difference in the home and away legs against Gomel. The two started together in just nine league matches last season, and Gerrard played as a deeper 4-4-2 midfielder in most of them; it should be a much different story if he remains in a more attacking role. Liverpool should be a more cohesive team this season, one of the hallmarks of Rodgers' system, but its fortunes will most likely stay dependent on Gerrard and Suarez's successes. The two combined for 34% of Liverpool Premiership goals last season, 33% of the goals in all competitions. Even if Liverpool gets better production from the supporting cast – and honestly, there's seemingly nowhere to go but up in that category – as those two go, so goes Liverpool. Plus, Lucas. Always Lucas.

• Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good. And Liverpool had less than zero luck last season. The woodwork, the missed penalties, Suarez's suspension, Lucas injured for two-thirds of the season. If Liverpool can convert more clear-cut chances, if Liverpool can keep key players fit and available, then Liverpool will be better. If Liverpool are "luckier" than average, whatever your definition of luck, then Liverpool could be really good. Those are obviously fairly big ifs. Honestly, all I'm asking for is regression – or, more aptly, progression – to the mean.


The usual mantra of "just be better," that all that's required is evolution from the previous season, won't suffice this year. Liverpool should better last season's return, at least in the league, just by showing up. There seems little way that Liverpool could hit the woodwork 33 times or miss five penalties. Liverpool cannot possibly draw 150% more home games than they win.

However, I'm sick of hearing about the importance of fourth, the importance of the Champions League. I imagine you're sick of hearing it too. Of course that's a goal, but it's not an expectation. It can't be an expectation when Liverpool haven't come close to achieving it in the last two seasons.

Still, the core of Suarez, Gerrard, Lucas, Reina, Skrtel, and Johnson (and Agger!) rivals almost any other club at those positions. Borini and Allen are valuable additions, Henderson, Shelvey, and Sterling could well be stars of the future. Once Liverpool's best players became involved, Liverpool looked incredibly promising against both Gomel and Leverkusen. While that's not saying much at this very, very early stage, it's cause for optimism.

And after the last few years, we could certainly do with some optimism.

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Tradition dictates that I restart the OYB fantasy league, after a couple of people asked about it and I got a handful of replies on Twitter. There are almost assuredly no prizes unless advertisers send me free stuff (ps: send me free stuff), and I will probably stop remembering to update my team around November, but dammit, tradition is tradition.

I use the official Premier League game. Create a team, then click "join a league." The entry code for the OYB League is 853013-274016. I'm pretty sure if you were in the league last year and create a team, you'll automatically be re-entered.

2011-12 Liverpool Season Preview

The difference a year makes. From Hicks and Gillett setting the club's money on fire to FSG opening the checkbook at will. From an owl-faced over-matched media darling who "deserved a chance" as manager to the club's greatest living legend. Checking under couch cushions for the privilege of buying Konchesky and Poulsen to slightly less than £50m spent on Adam, Doni, Downing, Enrique, and Henderson. All this optimism is starting to make me pessimistic.

Business Time (so far)
In: Jordan Henderson (£16m), Charlie Adam (£8m), Stewart Downing (£18.5m), Doni (free), Jose Enrique (~£6m)
Out: Daniel Ayala (£850,000), Milan Jovanovic (free), Paul Konchesky (£1.5m), Chris Mavinga (£1m)
Fees taken from LFC History, except in the case of Ayala and Enrique, which haven't been finalized yet.

With news today that Liverpool and Newcastle have agreed a fee for Jose Enrique, another problem area can be checked off Comolli and Dalglish's list. Liverpool now have a completely new left side, far more threatening than any deployed on that flank in ages, to go with added depth in the middle.

Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam, Jose Enrique, and Jordan Henderson represent an excellent summer's worth of business, while adding the experienced Doni allows prospects Gulasci and Hansen to go on loan. Downing and Enrique were crucial, giving the club proven quality at positions where Liverpool often had to cram round pegs into square holes last season. The squad desperately lacked left-footers last season; Downing, Enrique, and Adam all have gifted left pegs, and all three are outstanding crossers of the ball, which probably pleases Andy Carroll. Henderson – the first player signed the summer, with the most surprising fee – seems solely for insurance this season: capable of replacing Gerrard if he spends any extended spells on the sidelines and able to play multiple positions in midfield to cover for others. It is an outstanding haul, even without adding mooted depth at center-back or striker.

But with three weeks left in the window, business time hasn't quite ended. The flashing neon "Free To A Good Home" signs hung around the necks of Cole, Poulsen, et al haven't enticed one of those suckers born every minute yet. For some reason, other clubs don't want to pay hard-earned money for Liverpool's misfits, especially considering what a certain few (coughJoeColecough) earn in wages.

Center-back may still be addressed, although talk of another striker has died down since Wickham signed for Sunderland and Ngog's remained at the club. Dann and Cahill continue to be suggested targets, with Phil Jones pursued before United lured him to the dark side. But CB is much less a priority than left back is/was. Liverpool could certainly do with more top quality, but in Carragher, Agger, Skrtel, Kyrgiakos, Wilson, and potentially Kelly, Liverpool at least have strength in depth. Even if that depth is fragile, aging, or inexperienced.

Expected Formation and "Best" XI


Like at the best of times under Benitez, it's difficult to forecast next season's formation, let alone line-up.

The diagrams I posted following Adam's purchase – for potential 4-2-2-2 and 4-3-3 – still hold water. I've drawn it up above as 4-2-3-1, which we've seen most frequently in preseason and is the formation the Academy and reserves have been using for the last two seasons. The difference could well be negligible, dependent on which central midfielders and wide-men play.

However, it's even harder than usual to use preseason as a gauge because two of the most important players – Suarez and Gerrard – were unavailable throughout. Lucas, the lone out-and-out defensive midfielder (Poulsen does not count), featured for the just final 45 minutes. Including those three players could necessitate an entire change of system – where does Suarez fit in the 4-2-3-1?

By my reckoning, Liverpool only used the 4-2-3-1 formation twice in Suarez's 12 starts – the 5-2 win over Fulham and 0-1 loss at Villa. He was the out-and-out striker in both, a position Carroll seems likely to fill more often than not. Suarez is as much creator as well as scorer, but I worry that playing him on the flanks in that system could put him where he's less dangerous. That Carroll is an every-game starter is by no means a given, but it'll take all of Dalglish's chutzpah to render a £35m player a spot starter.

The other elephant in the room is the obvious central midfield glut. Stockpiling in that area suggests either 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3; Liverpool would struggle to shoehorn Gerrard, Lucas, Adam, Henderson, Meireles, Spearing, etc in the 4-2-2-2 we saw during the latter half of last season. Aquilani's also lingering on the periphery, somehow still with the club, tempting us with whispered suggestions of potential. I still find it hard to believe he'll be on Merseyside come September.

It may seem too much muchness when other fields lay fallow, but it's both strength and depth in the most important part of the pitch, where the game is often won. Liverpool's best season in recent memory came with its strongest central midfield – a base of Mascherano-Alonso-Gerrard. That trio stuck to the "destroyer-passer-creator" archetype perfectly: Mascherano tackled, Alonso played chess, Gerrard made and notched goals.

This season's version is similar. Yes, it's probably weaker when everyone’s fit – Alonso is one of the best deep-lying passers in the world and Gerrard is three years older – but it's also less specialized and more versatile. Lucas isn't all snarls, tackles, and cards like Mascherano, Adam gets forward and scores more than Alonso. Gerrard's injury problems have only increased with age, but Liverpool has the likes of Henderson and Meireles (and possibly Aquilani) – each with different qualities – if the captain's (inevitably) unavailable. Both those players can also play wide if needed, as proven last season. This corps is far deeper than the '08-09 version, with Liverpool much less effective if one of Gerrard, Alonso, or Mascherano were missing. In the early, early stages of Hicks and Gillett's financial shenanigans, one of that side's biggest weaknesses was its lack of depth.

It's also worth noting that Liverpool's academy prospects are in better shape than ever. Spearing, Kelly, Flanagan, and Robinson have all successfully graduated to the first team, while Sterling, Coady, Wisdom, Ngoo, Suso, and others wait in the wings for their opportunity. I'll be amazed if fewer than 3-5 become first-team regulars in coming years, and we should start to see the likes of Sideshow Raheem et al make their debuts in this season's cup competitions.

The Chevrolet Keys To The Game
• Subterranean Homesick Blues: Liverpool were indescribably atrocious away from Anfield under Hodgson. Dalglish's record was unsurprisingly better, but not better enough. Yes, under Dalglish, Liverpool did manage to win away more than once, and did manage to score more than one goal in multiple away matches. Dalglish's side even scored five in one match; Hodgson's Liverpool scored seven total in ten away matches. However, losses to relegated West Ham and Blackpool under Dalglish, as well as at West Brom and Villa, remain drilled deep in the memory.

With Liverpool's recently-acquired midfield versatility, we may well see different line-ups home and away. Dalglish's willingness to vary systems was evident in changing to three at the back against Chelsea, Stoke, and West Ham. That flexibility allows Liverpool to test multiple formations. As an example, Carroll could be used as an away day weapon/super sub – holding up play and bruising defenders away from Anfield comforts, with Liverpool reverting to a more mobile style on its own ground (as in the late season romps against Birmingham and Newcastle). But regardless of the solution, it's one of the problems most in need of remedy.

• Keep On Keeping On: Liverpool were the third best side in the league from the date Dalglish took over through the end of the season. Only Chelsea and United gained more points than Liverpool from January 8 through mid-May. Remaining that strong is far easier said than done.

Liverpool never truly played without pressure after Dalglish's appointment, as some have suggested. But the pressure of expectations is both different and heavier than the pressures of playing for pride and a new manager. Not only that, but Liverpool will have to bed in new and important players into a potentially new system. And quickly. Last season's perennial starters Kuyt and Meireles look likely to lose their guaranteed places to Downing and Adam (and Carroll, in the case of Kuyt). Liverpool will need to start fast to prove to themselves and the chattering masses that they belong in the top tier of the top tier.

• What is Liverpool's Best Side?: That aforementioned versatility could come at a cost. The extended, rambling discussion above hints at the fact we've no clue what Dalglish thinks is his best team. But Liverpool don't have the luxury of growing into the season at a leisurely pace. The team needs to gel quickly before the knives come out. And make no mistake, the toothy media horde are already sharpening said blades. The first six fixtures of the season are Sunderland (H), Arsenal (A), Bolton (H), Stoke (A), Tottenham (A), and Wolves (H). Two top-six trips London are no small matter, but it's a vastly easier start than last season, when Liverpool hosted Arsenal and traveled to City and United before the end of September.

• No European Distraction: Yes, I'd rather be distracted, even if only by the Europa League. But I completely understand (and somewhat endorse) the argument that Liverpool's league form will benefit from a lack of continental competition. The still shallow side will have fewer games to play than their closest rivals, allowing for more training and recovery time between matches.

Liverpool's goal has to be a return to European competition, specifically THE European competition. Anything more is a pipe dream after finishing 22 points behind the leaders last season. And it'll be difficult to argue that anything less is a successful season. Liverpool have spent like a top four side, have the wage bill of a top four side, and finally seem to have a squad capable of being a top four side. But after the drama and trauma of the last two seasons, just seeing some stable progress is what's essential. Evolution, not revolution, and so on.

Just be better.

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Update: As David helpfully reminded in the comments below, I've only mentioned the OYB Fantasy League on Twitter. And in case you're not following on there, I am "running" the league again this year and will try to maintain interest in it, with the potential of prizes at the end. I am sorry there were no prizes last year. There might not be prizes this year. But if I have some extra funds or advertisers send me free stuff, there will be at least one prize.

Anyway. The details. As always, the league is at the Premier League's official game. Create a team, then click "join a league." The entry code for the OYB League is 302898-189271. If you were in the league last year and create a team, I think you'll automatically be re-entered.

I'll put up another reminder in tomorrow's preview of the opening match against Sunderland.