Visualized: Liverpool 4-2 Burnley

Previous Match Infographics: Everton (a), Watford (h), Manchester United (a), Bayern Munich (h), Bournemouth (h) West Ham (a), Leicester (h), Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



I'm still not sure if that was a good attacking performance.

Which is weird, because Liverpool took 23 shots and had six clear-cut chances and scored four goals. Those are all good things! Mané both created and scored, Firmino scored, and Salah took more shots and created more chances than in any match since Bournemouth a month ago.

23 shots is Liverpool's most since taking 36 (!!!) in the 3-1 win over United back in December. And that's especially heartening considering the dearth of shots against Leicester, West Ham, United, and Everton over the last five weeks, although three of those four were away from home.

But ten of those 23 were blocked by Burnley defenders. Eight were off-target. Ten came from outside the box. Only one on-target shot didn't result in a goal: Salah in the 88th minute. It's not terrible accuracy, but it ain't great accuracy either.

More importantly, only three of those six clear-cut chances were created by Liverpool players: Robertson's cross for Wijnaldum's header in the 67th minute, Alexander-Arnold's low cross which Mané slammed into the crossbar, and Sturridge's assist for Mané's second goal deep into added time. The other three came off of Burnley players: Taylor's tackles on Salah falling for Mané and Firmino, Firmino's tap-in after both Tarkowski and Mee muffed Salah's byline pass.

Those, to be fair, were Liverpool's best three chances of the match. Those were Liverpool's first three goals. And they very much depended on a fortunate bounce of the ball, no matter Salah's good work in the build-up for the first or Lallana's pressing to start the second.

But, like Palace, like Bournemouth, like Watford, Liverpool have won yet another game while scoring bunches of goals at Anfield, even if I'm still not sure about the overall level of competence. Liverpool were better able to turn possession dominance into efforts at goal, Liverpool were better able to press the opposition in the opposition's half, Liverpool turned shots into goals.

And that's a good sign. Maybe that's almost something of a turning point. Liverpool struggled with deep defenders and blocked shots at both United and Everton, to say nothing of a handful of matches which came before. Liverpool still got shots on Sunday, still got clear-cut chances on Sunday – where they didn't against either United or Everton – and still got goals.

But the home versus away disparity remains stark as stark can be.



Liverpool's last eight home matches over the last three months? Three, four, five, four, one, three, five, and four goals scored. An average of 3.63 goals scored per game.

Liverpool's last six away matches over the last three months? Two, one, one, one, zero, and zero goals scored. An average of 0.83 goals scored per game.

On a related note, I certainly ain't worried about Burnley's goals. The first never should have stood, and Westwood would struggle to replicate it even with Alisson being fouled. The second was a gift, Liverpool shut off in injury time when up by two, and Burnley still needing a fortunate deflection of their own from Keïta's tackle. It is just the second time that Liverpool have allowed two or more goals in a league match at Anfield, after 4-3 Palace two months ago.

Liverpool have conceded nine goals in 15 home games, eight goals in 15 away games. They've nine clean sheets at home and eight clean sheets away.

The venue doesn't really matter for Liverpool's defense, the two goals conceded on Sunday not withstanding. It seems to very much matter for the attack. No matter whether Salah or Firmino are the striker, whether Liverpool play 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, whether Liverpool are reliant on crosses or get help from the midfield.

Liverpool have had similar amounts of possession in pretty much all of these last 14 matches, the loss at City and romp over Arsenal the only real exceptions. It's where the possession's taken place: Liverpool remain far more active in the opposition half at Anfield, both in threading moves together, finding attackers with long passes out of defense, and, yes, an ability to press, this time led by Adam Lallana. They haven't gotten those chances away from home, for all the reasons above. Or not doing the things listed above. Both the way the opposition's played and how Liverpool has – and, I'm assuming, the opposition's comfort level on their own ground.

Liverpool have four matches away and four matches at home left. Fulham, Southampton, Cardiff, and Newcastle – sides that Liverpool scored two, three, four, and four against at Anfield. The home slate is harder over the next two months – Tottenham and Chelsea, as well as Wolves – but I suspect the away matches will be more decisive.

Beginning first with Bayern in the Champions League, then in London against Fulham on Sunday.

Liverpool 4-2 Burnley

Goals:
Westwood 6'
Firmino 19' 68'
Mané 29' 90+3'
Gudmundsson 90+1'

Liverpool often face adversity when playing Burnley. And somehow usually thrive.

The reverse fixture: a 3-1 win after conceding first, stifled for over an hour but immediately replying to Burnley's opener. Last season: 2-1 at Burnley thanks to Klavan's late winner after Burnley equalized in the 87th minute and a 1-1 draw after Salah canceled out Arfield's opener. And at Anfield in 2016-17, another comeback win after conceding in the opening seven minutes.

It's yet another comeback win after conceding first. After conceding stupidly and unfairly and the world is ending it's happening again the title's gone and we're all gonna die. It's Liverpool behind, but not for long, and then Burnley not in the match.

This opener takes some beating. A corner that never should have been, but Jöel Matip gets his wires crossed on a hopeful hoof forward. Alisson fouled by two different Burnley players as Westwood's cross comes in, uncalled, as Westwood's cross goes directly into Liverpool's goal. For Westwood's first goal for Burnley, his first goal in three years. For the first goal that Liverpool have conceded in 517 minutes of football. A day after Manchester City opened the scoring in their match with one of the most offside goals you'll see. Six minutes into today's match.

So that didn't start well.

It finished just fine.

Firmino equalizes within 13 minutes, tapping in after both Tarkowski and Heaton muddle up Salah's low byline cross. Mané gives Liverpool the lead after Lallana's pressing blocks a Burnley clearance, falling straight to Salah, tackled by Taylor but the rebound rammed home. Firmino extends that lead after a period of dominance without reward, another rebound from another Taylor tackle on Salah, this time set up by Heaton's goal kick going directly to the Egyptian.

Burnley give us a tiny fright, Gudmundsson pulling one back in the first minute of added time, Liverpool switched off and failing to clear before Vydra slid in his fellow substitute, but Mané relieved it two minutes later, rounding Heaton when put through by Sturridge's wonderful through ball from the flanks.

4-2 is somehow closer than it should have been and a wider margin than it should have been.

Liverpool could easily have scored more, but Mané hit the crossbar from about four yards out late on, Burnley made a few last-ditch interceptions and blocks that didn't fall directly to Liverpool players, and Liverpool's attack – read: Mohamed Salah – still isn't firing on all cylinders despite those four goals. And fortune almost made full amends for Burnley's opener, with Liverpool getting help for three of their four goals. Either Tarkowski or Heaton should have cleared before Firmino's tap-in; Bardsley could have avoided Lallana's pressing, with both Lallana's block falling straight to Salah and Taylor's tackle falling straight to Mané; and Heaton's goal kick going directly to Salah, again with a Burnley tackle setting up Mané. Three unassisted goals, with the last touch coming off Burnley defenders.

It wasn't quite Bournemouth or Watford, as a rampant Liverpool attack utterly dismissed an opponent. But it's still four goals. And still three points.

And once again, there are parallels with recent matches. Palace at Anfield, as Palace score first but Liverpool score four. But Burnley were nowhere near as threatening as Palace, both because Burnley does not have Palace's players and because Liverpool's defense was even more in control despite conceding twice.

Burnley took just three shots. Three. And they were lucky to get that. There was that corner. Hendrick from distance in the 34th minute, swiftly blocked. That late, unnecessary consolation. Virgil van Dijk, with help from his friends, allowed no more. It's weird to say when scoring four and conceding two, but Liverpool's defense remains Liverpool's best feature.

Still, Burnley did beat Tottenham two weeks ago, did draw 2-2 at Manchester United a little over a month. They've scored in six of their last seven games, with at least two in four of them. Sean Dyche remains the most hateable anti-football warlock, especially now that Stoke and Tony Pulis are out of the league.

So, regardless of the score line, it wasn't the most coherent performance. It wasn't the most thorough attack, but again a multi-goal performance at Anfield, as against both Bournemouth and Watford. Lallana, in a surprise start, might well have been Liverpool's most impressive player, a needed link between midfield and attack, especially since crosses were almost an impossibility in that wind. But Firmino and Mané both scored twice; Salah did *okay* despite failing to score for the fifth game, at least in position to get chances and set up teammates even if again too often tackled by a last defender as at Everton; Fabinho remains almost as crucial to protecting Liverpool from counters and long balls as Virgil van Dijk; and Robertson was more influential than usual, needed with Alexander-Arnold off-color.

It was good enough. Good enough to get all three points, good enough to keep Liverpool just a point behind Manchester City. More than good enough, because at this point of the season, the points are all that matters. Somehow get goals, somehow keep the other guys from doing so. By any means, etc. And it's even more encouraging that Liverpool, yet again, did so despite a set-back through little fault of their own, despite conceding with the match barely started.

The chase, now that it's become a chase, remains on. When it could easily have been lost by a less resilient side.

Visualized: Liverpool 3-1 Burnley

Previous Match Infographics: Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



This did not start well.

Seven changes from the XI which started the Merseyside Derby, as well as a different formation. Sturridge and Origi both start up top – the latter making his first league start since August 2017. It's Keïta's first start in more than two months. There are rare appearances for Matip and Moreno. There's James Milner on the left flank. There's no Firmino, no Salah, and no Mané, the first time none have started a Liverpool match since the beginning of last season.

And then Joe Gomez has to go off before the match is a quarter gone, fracturing his left leg.

And there are no Liverpool shots, against the side who allows the most shots in the league, until the 29th minute. Despite more than 70% possession. Despite playing a side who'd failed to win their previous seven games, who sat just a point above the bottom of the table. An often-broken attack remains so, despite the change in personnel and formation.

It's not going well. It gets better, little by little. Liverpool at least start to register shots. And they're either putting them on target or seeing them blocked, which is better than the "miss, miss, block, miss, maybe on-target" we've become more accustomed to.

Of course, Liverpool are still living dangerously, with Barnes putting the ball in Liverpool's net from a Burnley free kick only to see it ruled out for offside. It takes just one moment, after all.

Which Burnley get, after a bit of a flurry from Liverpool. Van Dijk misses a couple of set play chances, blocked by Tarkowski and headed off-target, while Keïta thunders an effort that Hart saves onto the post. But Burnley somehow progress down the field, van Dijk has to clear a cross behind, and Burnley have a corner. Gudmundsson. Tarkowski over Alexander-Arnold, save. Barnes the rebound, save. Cork, goal. Even though Wood looked offside going for Tarkowski's shot. Even though it appeared that Barnes kicked the ball out of Alisson's hands. Even though Liverpool had dominated, had been the better side, etc etc.

Oh fuck.

But this is where Liverpool proved that Liverpool are actually good at the football. That Liverpool belong near the top of the table. That Liverpool rightly are one of the best sides in the league.

Because the best sides in the league score three times in half an hour after going behind. The best sides in the league win the difficult mid-week away games, despite missing players, despite almost wholly changing the team, despite going behind.

Eight minutes after Burnley scored, we're level. Seven minutes after that, we're ahead. And in the first minute of added time, we've got a game-sealing third.

Each goal was very "this is what Liverpool can do to you." The first, a 26-pass move, rope-a-dope before the knockout, and only Liverpool's second open play goal from outside the box this season. The second a set play. The third a lightning counter from goalkeeper to opposition goal with five touches in fewer than ten seconds.

And the last two goals saw the impact that substitutions can have.



Firmino's goal was Liverpool's 33rd by a substitute since Klopp became manager. It's the sixth already this season. Eight of those have been game-winning goals – including three this season – while five more were equalizers. And we can't downplay Salah's assist to Shaqiri, perfectly weighted into the Swiss' path with the outside of his left foot, without even thinking of trying to control Sturridge's chip.

Sure, we don't want to be bringing Salah and Firmino off the bench every match. And it's not as if substitute goals are a new feature under Klopp; Liverpool are on pace for more this season, but nothing's yet topped Klopp's first season when Liverpool substitutes scored 16 times. But it is more proof of Liverpool's strength in depth. In that 2015-16 season, the majority of Liverpool's sub goals were scored by Christian Benteke, while Origi was the only other player with more than one. This season, they've been scored by Sturridge (twice), Firmino (twice), Shaqiri, and Origi. Somewhat stronger attackers than those in Klopp's first season.

And Liverpool are – as we're well aware after the start to the season – stronger at the back as well. Good lord, Virgil van Dijk.

VVD tonight:
12/13 aerial duels
10 clearances
102 passes (most in team)
1 Big Chance created
3 shots, 1 on target
COLOSSUS#LFC

— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) December 5, 2018

But a few other players deserve a mention too. James Milner started on the left, ran his ass off, scored the vital equalizer from outside the box, then spent the next 30 minutes at left back. Naby Keïta massively improved the midfield, leading Liverpool in shots and putting four of those six shots on-target. Alisson made a massive save at 2-1, then started the counter-attack for Liverpool's third, and should have gotten credit for denying Tarkowski's 54th minute shot before Wood was offside but uncalled.

Liverpool are getting performances, consistent performances, from players who don't necessarily always get the headlines. They're getting performances from players signed in the last 12 months: van Dijk, Keïta, and Alisson. They're getting performances from players who aren't Salah, Firmino, and Mané.

And even when we're worried, when we're frustrated, Liverpool find a way to get three goals to beat a side that'd given them fits, has given them fits in the past. They're getting goals, and shots on-target, when those things have been hard to come by in previous matches this season.

They're getting wins, more and more, with more points earned at this stage of the season than in any previous campaign.

Liverpool at Burnley 12.05.18

2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Gold

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.01.18
1-1 (h) 09.16.17
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.12.17
0-2 Burnley (a) 08.20.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Everton (h); 1-2 PSG (a); 3-0 Watford (a)
Burnley: 0-2 Palace (a); 1-2 Newcastle (h); 0-0 Leicester (a)

Goal-scorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 7; Mané 6; Firmino 3; Milner, Shaqiri, Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Origi, Wijnaldum 1
Burnley: Vokes 3; Barnes, Gudmundsson, Tarkowski 2; Hendrick, Lennon, Vydra, Wood 1

Referee: Stuart Attwell (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Moreno
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Sturridge Shaqiri

The first midweek league match of the season. The second of eight matches in December.

You have to assume there will be changes, will be rotation. But your guess is as good as mine as to how or whom.

What formation Liverpool plays is probably dependent on who plays. So let's guess a few absentees. There are two new injury doubts: Mané's got a cut on his foot which needed stitches, Robertson has a minor knock. Firmino's struggled for form. Liverpool have five available midfielders with Keïta fit and Henderson back from suspension.

With Mané potentially absent, Sturridge or Origi in line for a start, and all the central midfielders in contention, 4-3-3 seems more likely. I'm dubious of completely changing the midfield, but Fabinho's struggled in 4-3-3 and Wijnaldum's played more minutes than any other midfielder so far. So, there's the above guess, along with the preferred back four but with Moreno for Robertson, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Lovren or Matip either. But that's almost certainly going to be wrong in some places.

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see something more a 4-4-2 than the 4-2-3-1 we've seen lately, with two from Sturridge, Firmino, Origi and possibly Salah up front, but I'm also skeptical. If Firmino plays with another striker, it'll probably be 4-2-3-1. Origi's goal on Sunday is a wonderful story, but I doubt it makes him more likely to start matches, at least at this point.

Meanwhile, Burnley. Yikes. Karma catches up with you eventually.

Burnley had been the wizards of the Premier League in the previous two seasons. Over-performing both xG and xG against. A supremely difficult side to play again, allowing a ton of shots but very few good shots, and conceding surprisingly few goals while scoring *just enough.*

That hasn't been the case this season. At all. Well, they're still over-performing xG both for and against, although not by a ton. They've just been bad at the football. Only Huddersfield, Palace, Newcastle, and Southampton have scored fewer goals. Only Fulham has conceded more goals. They're 19th place, a point ahead of Fulham. They haven't won in more than two months, with five losses and two draws since the end of September.

And the only real line-up change from last season is Joe Hart in goal, so make of that what you will.

Burnley can't even blame injuries or absentees, other than Hart starting ahead of Nick Pope. They've again had one of the more settled sides in the league. Sure, Defour, Brady, and Tarkowski are doubtful for tomorrow's match, but the latter seems likely to start anyway and Burnley have experienced replacements for the two others.

If both Brady and Defour miss out, it'll probably be Hart; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Lennon, Westwood, Cork, Gudmundsson; Hendrick; Wood. Either Vokes or Barnes could start ahead of Wood up front. Maybe Burnley go more 4-4-2 with one of them paired with Wood in place of Hendrick. If Defour's available, he'll replace Westwood. If Brady is, he could play on either flank.

For all of Burnley's struggles, I remain nervous. A midweek match, with key players likely absent for Liverpool. An opponent who's given them problems in the past, no matter current form; last season's 1-1 at Anfield, the 0-2 at Burnley in 2016-17, even last season's 2-1 win at Burnley, decided thanks to Ragnar Klavan's only league goal for Liverpool, scored in the 90th minute. Liverpool are coming off a massive, morale-boosting win, but one achieved via fluke rather than force. Liverpool still aren't in the best form either, especially going forward.

We're reaching the point of the season where it doesn't matter how wins are achieved, with this many matches in quick succession, with crucial players needing rest or recuperation. Which, to be fair, is how we've felt for almost the entire season so far – a record amount of points at this phase of the season for Liverpool, but earned without ever truly impressing.

No matter. Just keep doing that. By any means necessary.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Burnley

Previous Match Infographics: Leicester (a), Swansea (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (a), West Brom (h), Everton (h), Spartak Moscow (h), Brighton (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Sevilla (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Maribor (h), Huddersfield (h), Tottenham (a), Maribor (a), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spartak Moscow (a), Leicester (a), Burnley (h), Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



(Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

These last two games might have been my favorites from the current 16-match unbeaten streak.

48 hours after a comeback win against Leicester, Liverpool's first of the season after conceding first, with Salah's winner the latest game-deciding Liverpool goal to that point, Liverpool have now beaten Burnley thanks to the latest game-winner goal since Sadio Mané beat Everton with a 94th minute strike in December 2016.

Liverpool beat Burnley despite a fairly dismal attacking performance, against a side that's unbelievably good at closing passing lanes in their own half and preventing big chances. Liverpool beat Burnley despite conceding an equalizer in the 86th minute, after finally breaking the deadlock in the 61st, what looked to be yet another 1-1 draw after scoring first and yet another late goal conceded. Liverpool beat Burnley despite Burnley being Burnley, a side that's flummoxed Liverpool multiple times under Jürgen Klopp. Liverpool beat Burnley despite making seven changes to the starting XI. Liverpool beat Burnley without Salah, Coutinho, and Firmino starting – players responsible for 51 of the 77 goals scored before yesterday's game.

We had a perfectly fine narrative after 86 minutes. It's not great, Burnley are mostly doing what Burnley want to do, but Liverpool's limited their chances as well and then the most talented attacker in a match where most of the talented attacking players have been left out goes and does something brilliant. And it's a talented attacker who's not been at his best of late. That certainly would have sufficed.

But then we go and get the narrative we'd tried to push past throughout this season. Liverpool don't take chances to extend a narrow lead and then concede at 1-0. Liverpool concede from a cross (at least it wasn't a set play?), with Joe Gomez ball-watching as an individual scapegoat. And Liverpool concede said equalizer late in the match, as against Watford, Sevilla, Chelsea, and Everton.

Son of a.

But wait! A Liverpool set play! And there's Lovren and there's *checks again* Klavan? And it's a winner? In the 94th minute?

That's an even better narrative. And, considering Watford, Sevilla, Chelsea, Everton, as well as Burnley at home and Spartak away and Newcastle and all the other regrettable draws, that's absolutely progress and absolutely welcomed.

Welcome to 2018.

Neither this nor Leicester was especially fun to watch. Almost the opposite. They certainly haven't been Southampton, Stoke, Brighton, Spartak, Bournemouth levels of comfortable, nor have Liverpool hit the heights seen in draws at Sevilla and Arsenal.

Games like that rarely happen during the Boxing Day to New Year's Day stretch, especially by the end of it.

Only one Premier League side has strolled to victory in the last two matchdays: Chelsea's 5-0 win over Stoke on Saturday. Stoke are incredibly bad and I have no idea how Mark Hughes hasn't been fired yet. Only two sides have scored three or more goals: Chelsea in the aforementioned romp and Leicester against Huddersfield yesterday, with all three goals in the second half as Huddersfield fell apart.

You win these games by grinding. And Liverpool have rarely been good at grinding. Almost all of the grinding matches this season have ended in disappointment: 1-1 v Burnley, 1-1 at Newcastle, 0-0 v United, 1-1 v Chelsea, 1-1 v Everton, 0-0 v West Brom. Only the early-season 1-0 win at Crystal Palace was a huff, puff, toil, and trouble late-earned victory.

Until this week.

And these two wins have come at the end of a simply brutal stretch, with 13 matches over 44 days since the last international break.



If you go back three more weeks – everything after the Tottenham debacle – you can add three more wins and make the underlying stats look even gaudier. But the international break seems a better dividing line, given how it's been at least two matches a week, sometimes more, since that respite for at least a few of the players.

Liverpool have used 23 different players over these 13 games. 18 of them played at least 360 minutes, only 11 played more than 600, only eight more than 800 – Mignolet, Lovren, Klavan, Wijnaldum, Coutinho, Salah, Firmino, and Gomez. We've never seen the same starting XI over these 13 games. Salah made the most consecutive starts, with eight, but was taken off as a substitute in five of those matches. He's the only front-six player to make more than five consecutive starts during this stretch – which Firmino and Coutinho both did – while Lovren started seven consecutive and both Klavan and Robertson six.

And I reiterate. Liverpool were unbeaten during this 13-match stretch over 44 days, are unbeaten in their last 16 matches all together, and we regret every single one of those five draws.

Liverpool have done it with Henderson, Matip, Moreno, Sturridge, and Clyne – Remember him? He played the most minutes last season. – absent for stretches. Coutinho and Salah have also missed at least one game through injury. Lallana's just now returning from months absent.

21-year-old Joe Gomez and 19-year-old Trent Alexander-Arnold have had to become crucial players in defense. Emre Can, for all he's been criticized and even though he's probably leaving on a free next summer, was monstrous over the last two games, even if not at his best. It is incredibly difficult to play that role twice in two days, and somehow he seemed to get better as the match went on in both. Not only were they involved in yesterday's winner, but Lovren and Klavan have been near faultless in the last three matches, with each – along with Matip, who was less so against Leicester – starting two of the last three.

It has been a masterful use of the squad and of rotation by a manager we criticized for not doing similar over the previous two winters. Because Liverpool have built a far better, and far deeper, squad this season.

Incidentally, this is only the second Premier League win in January that we've seen since Klopp became manager. The other was the 5-4 bananas victory at Norwich at the end of January 2016. Liverpool lost its first New Year's game under Klopp – 0-2 at West Ham – and drew last season's, an infinitely regrettable 2-2 draw with eventually relegated Sunderland. Liverpool's January record in the previous two seasons is 1W-4D-3L in the league and 4W-7D-7L in all competitions, with the other wins over Stoke (League Cup semi-final), Exeter (FA Cup replay) and Plymouth (FA Cup replay). That's 0.88 points-per-game in the league and 1.06 per game in all competitions (yes, yes, if all those games actually counted for points).

Admittedly, January is nowhere near over. Liverpool have had nine matches in January in the previous two seasons. At most, they'll have seven this month, including yesterday's, and that's only if Liverpool go to a replay against Everton but then proceed to the next round.

There is still a long way to go. It is, after, only January, and the very beginning of it. Fixture congestion will pick back up in mid-February when the Champions League resumes, especially if Liverpool progress in the FA Cup. There are still games to play against four of the five other teams in the top six.

But these last 13 games were the raw, red meat of the schedule. This was where Liverpool could slip up, this was were Liverpool had slipped up in the last two seasons. And they've navigated it unbeaten. They've navigated it with eight wins and five draws, and all five of those draws could easily have been wins. They've opened a slightly larger gap over fifth and sixth, and they've slightly closed the gap to second and third.

They've done it with a few riotous wins. And now, in the last two matches, they've done it with little more than an unwillingness to give up when not at their best.

We needed to see Liverpool capable of that. We especially needed to see Liverpool capable of that with key players absent. And we did, during the busiest time of the season.

Liverpool at Burnley 01.01.18

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 09.16.17
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.12.17
0-2 Burnley (a) 08.20.16
2-0 Liverpool (h) 03.04.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Leicester (h); 5-0 Swansea (h); 3-3 Arsenal (a)
Burnley: 0-0 Huddersfield (a); 2-2 United (a); 0-3 Tottenham (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 17; Firmino 9; Coutinho 7; Mané 4; Oxlade-Chamberlain, Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Can, Henderson, Lovren, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Burnley: Wood 4; Barnes, Vokes 3; Arfield, Hendrick 2; Brady, Cork, Defour, Ward 1

Referee: Roger East (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Trent A-A Lovren Klavan Robertson
Alex O-C Wijnaldum Can Mané
Solanke Firmino

It's Liverpool's ninth game since the start of December. It's Liverpool second game in 48 hours. And Liverpool are playing a side that's given them – and more than a few others – fits over the last few meetings.

I literally have no idea how Liverpool will line up.

That Simon Mignolet will come back in is basically the only certainty. Some of those left out against Leicester – especially Oxlade-Chamberlain and Wijnaldum – are likely to come in. It'll probably be Alexander-Arnold rather than Gomez. Robertson and Can seemingly have to keep their places for lack of alternatives. Given how Klopp's rotated his center-backs lately, Klavan probably replaces Matip. Salah, who limped off late against Leicester, probably misses this game even if his injury's minor just given his workload over the last few weeks. Otherwise, *throws arms up in exasperation*.

One guess I will venture is the 4-4-2 formation. Burnley has stifled Liverpool's 4-3-3 well in each of the recent meetings, whether win, loss, or draw. This would be something different, would make Burnley have to mark differently than they've been able to in the past. The formation worked well away at the likes of West Ham and Stoke, although it admittedly stuttered against West Brom.

But it's still a guess. At least Liverpool have options. There are the changes guessed above. 4-4-2 or 4-3-3, or a little of both. Another start for Coutinho in midfield or the left rather than a rest. Lallana yet to start after returning from injury, like Coutinho capable of playing on the flank or in a three-man midfield. Both Solanke or even Ings could replace Firmino or play along with him.

Two games in two days is not ideal, especially with two matches a week for almost two months, but Liverpool are far more capable of coping than they were a year ago.

And Burnley haven't coped with the festive season as they'd have hoped. They're winless in four, with a decent 2-2 at United – albeit one where they lost a 2-0 lead – but also boring 0-0 draws at Brighton and Huddersfield, and an 0-3 whooping by Tottenham, failing to score in three of those four matches. Top scorer Chris Wood, along with Ward and Brady, will miss this match due to injuries incurred in December, although Tarkowski will return from suspension.

Unsurprisingly, an early Tottenham goal was crucial in that match, scoring in the seventh minute, frustrated by Burnley for the next hour but not allowing them counter-attack chances, then scoring two more when Burnley finally had to come out. That's similar to what Liverpool did against Southampton and Stoke in November. That's the template for tomorrow.

Of course, form hasn't really mattered when these sides have met over the last season and a half. There's the 0-2 loss at the start of last season, where Liverpool went behind to two first-half goals and ran headlong into Burnley's defensive wall. There's the 1-1 earlier this season, where Liverpool went behind but thankfully got a quick equalizer, but then ran headlong into Burnley's defensive wall. And there was a 2-1 win at Anfield last season, a match which looked a lot like yesterday's against Leicester, ugly but enough.

And yet Burnley remain seventh, only three points behind Arsenal and Tottenham, although both have a game in hand. Because Sean Dyche is somehow a wizard. They've been more impressive away than home this season – in contrast to last season – beating Chelsea and drawing with Tottenham and Liverpool, but they've still conceded just six goals at home this season. Only Liverpool and United have conceded fewer.

We'll probably see some rotation from Burnley, but as with Leicester, it's a small squad with fewer potential changes. Something like Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Gudmundson, Cork, Defour, Arfield; Walters, Vokes. Barnes could go again up front, maybe Hendrick or Westwood in midfield, maybe Wells on the flanks. Maybe 4-1-4-1 rather than 4-4-1-1. Either way, they'll play deep, they'll look to soak up pressure, they'll look to counter, but they'll also run and harry and hassle when Liverpool are trying to transition from defense to attack in their own half, hoping Liverpool do a Liverpool, as Liverpool did at the start against Leicester.

One more match, then something like a return to normalcy. Or at least as normal as Liverpool ever are. At least we'll be down to one match a week rather than two or three.

January was the beginning of the decline last season, the winter of our discontent, with only one replay win against Plymouth Argyle in the month's nine matches. There will be fewer fixtures this month. Liverpool have a larger, better squad to deal with this winter's trials.

Liverpool have an opportunity to rectify last season's failings. Liverpool have an opportunity to keep the distance between Tottenham and Arsenal, and gain ground on United and Chelsea in this unbelievably tight race for next season's Champions League spots. Liverpool have an opportunity to start the new year as they finished the old, still unbeaten in the last 15 matches, and somehow we're angry about a third of those matches.

But Liverpool will have to do it against – ugh – Sean Dyche's Burnley.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Burnley

Previous Match Infographics: Sevilla (h), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Hoffenheim (h), Crystal Palace (h), Hoffenheim (a), Watford (a)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app.



(Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...



35 shots is a lot of shots. Like, "happened only six times in the last six and-a-little-more seasons" lot. 35 shots is a shot every two minutes and 35 seconds. For 90 minutes on Saturday, Liverpool took aim at Burnley's goal once every 155 seconds. And Liverpool usually missed.

Sure, three of the above games were Luis Suarez-driven. One was a red card-inspired whooping handed out in one of the most lopsided Merseyside Derbies in most of our lifetimes. And the other happened against a beat-from-the-beginning Hull City when Liverpool were entirely on-fire a year ago.

But Liverpool also managed to score at least four goals in all of them, despite a similar number of shots on-target. Somehow, Liverpool only scored one goal on Saturday.

I ain't blaming just one person – albeit one who took a fifth of those shots – but this wasn't quite welcome back, Phil.



But Sturridge's shot map wasn't much better, but Can's shot map wasn't much better. Salah's was, but still not what we're becoming used to from him. And Firmino's shot map was almost nonexistent.

I ain't blaming just two people, but this wasn't the match where Firmino and Sturridge finally proved they could play together either.



Three wins, three draws, and three losses. Against that opposition. Yikes.

Their individual stats over that series of matches aren't actually bad. Each have taken about as many shots and played about as many key passes as usual, each have surpassed their usual shot accuracy. But Firmino has just two goals – both against Leicester – and one assist. Sturridge has scored once and assisted once. In nine matches. Where – if they all counted for points – Liverpool would have averaged just 1.33 points per game.

This wasn't a problem in 2015-16 under Klopp. Those two started 12 matches together. Liverpool won six, drew five, and lost just one. Sturridge scored seven, Firmino scored two and assisted two. But Liverpool also played 4-2-3-1, with Sturridge up top and Firmino lurking behind and around.

Since the start of last season, Liverpool have tried to shoe horn Firmino and Sturridge into the now-preferred 4-3-3, with either Firmino on the left or Sturridge on the right. And it has not worked. Only the 3-0 win against Boro on the last day of last season saw a change in formation, the 4-4-2 diamond where Liverpool needed a riotous win and got a riotous win.

Liverpool really should have gotten more rewards from their attack in both of their last two matches.



And Liverpool should not have conceded three times from what the opposition's attack did in the last two matches.

Liverpool have now conceded from the opposition's first shot on-target against Watford, Hoffenheim (h), Sevilla, and Burnley. Which is half of the matches so far this season, and four of the six where Liverpool have conceded at all. This annoyance has returned with a vengeance.

It's the same pattern which has frustrated us over the last two seasons. The opposition gets a preventable goal – sometimes early, sometimes late – while Liverpool's attack can't do enough to overcome the at-least-once-a-match lapse at the back.

This time, one long ball – delivered with Burnley not pressed in their own half – one lost aerial duel, one Klavan Kalamity™, and Liverpool are behind. Liverpool immediately get one back through a very well worked move of their own – the type of speed and movement from Salah we knew was so necessary in breaking down opposition like this – but no more. Burnley could have gotten a winner – Mee cleared off the line by Matip then denied by Mignolet, both from corners; Liverpool could have gotten one more – Salah's penalty shout ignored before Solanke poked a clear-cut chance off the crossbar.

So, yes, there's a bit of bad luck about the result. Ignored penalty shouts, woodwork. That many shots probably would have led to far more than one goal on most other days. So, yes, it's not as if this is the first time Burnley have done similar to good opponents, having already beaten Chelsea and drawn Tottenham away, not to mention the two matches against this side last season. This looked a lot like Liverpool's early-season match at Burnley in 2016-17, except at least Liverpool are coming away with a point rather than none.

But that it's the same pattern which has frustrated us over the last two seasons, coming after a week where Liverpool were annihilated by Manchester City and had similar happen against Sevilla, makes it that much harder to stomach.

Liverpool v Burnley 09.16.17

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Gold

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.12.17
0-2 Burnley (a) 08.20.16
2-0 Liverpool (h) 03.04.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.26.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Sevilla (h); 0-5 City (a); 4-0 Arsenal (h)
Burnley: 1-0 Palace (h); 1-1 Tottenham (a); 2-0 Blackburn (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 3; Firmino, Salah 2; Sturridge 1
Burnley: Vokes, Wood 2; Ward 1

Referee: Roger East (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Trent A-A Matip Lovren Robertson
Alex O-C Henderson Wijnaldum
Salah Firmino Coutinho

As against Crystal Palace two weeks ago, there will be rotation. Probably at least five changes, with one enforced – the first of three matches where Sadio Mané's suspended.

Mignolet for Karius is certain. Coutinho's first start of the season, whether in the front three or midfield, probably is as well. Alexander-Arnold for Gomez, Oxlade-Chamberlain in midfield, and Robertson at left-back also seem likely. But maybe also Klavan for Lovren, Sturridge for Firmino? Maybe Henderson's left out for the first time this season, with Can as the deepest midfielder. Maybe Coutinho in midfield, Firmino on the left, and Sturridge up top?

We could even see a formation change. 4-4-2, whether with a midfield diamond or not, Firmino and Sturridge or Firmino and Salah or Salah and Sturridge. 4-2-3-1, with Firmino or Coutinho lurking as the #10. Or three-at-the-back, which was the switch made when reduced to ten men at Manchester City, for all the good that did.

Liverpool do have more options than last season. It's still early, and we're still not entirely sure how Klopp's going to handle somewhere between 10 and 15 more matches this season than last.

Burnley, level on points with Liverpool after four games, is in terrifying form. But it's not as if they're smashing all comers. Their loss came at home against West Brom, who were just smashed by Brighton, of all sides. And Burnley have failed to score more than once in a league match since opening day.

But it's how they've played in two of those four matches. The 3-2 win at Chelsea on opening day, the surprise of the round which thankfully led to less focus on Liverpool's awfulness at Watford, and a 1-1 draw with Tottenham two weeks ago thanks to a 90th-minute equalizer.

Their two toughest matches, the only two away from home, both against top-four sides. A stunning win and a punishing-for-their-opponents draw. Yikes.

Burnley will most likely stick with Dyche's preferred 4-4-2 formation, that which gave Liverpool problems in both meetings last season, but it is worth nothing he switched to 4-5-1 at both Chelsea and Tottenham. Still, the most likely XI remains Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Ward; Gudmundsson, Cork, Defour, Mee; Vokes, Wood.

I had almost forgotten that Jon Walters, often Liverpool's bane, joined Burnley this summer. Ashley Barnes, who scored Burnley's seventh-minute opener in this fixture last season, is still around as well. Midfielder Jeff Hendrick, a starter prior to injury, is back in training. First-choice keeper Tom Heaton will be out for a few months, and back-up Nick Pope will make his first Premier League start after coming on a sub last week, but that only heightens my expectations for opposition keeper heroics. Record signing Chris Wood's in hot form with two goals in two games, his first two appearances for the club.

These matches are never easy and rarely fun. Burnley love aerial duels, set plays, and frustrating Liverpool. Liverpool seemingly love frustrating us. This was a tricky fixture last season, these are often tricky fixtures, and Liverpool have struggled for consistency, to put it nicely, so far this season. Arsenal and Hoffenheim were great, City was not, Palace was fine, and there was both good and bad against Watford and Sevilla.

Liverpool's attack – even without Sadio Mané, so often the lynchpin – is better than last season's, and should be better than against this opposition last season. But Liverpool's defense will remain terrifying, especially in matches like these, until consistently proving otherwise.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Burnley


Previous Match Infographics: Arsenal (h), Leicester (a), Tottenham (h), Hull (a), Chelsea (h), Swansea (h), Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)


All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.



As long as Liverpool win, it's hard to complain. Sure, it wasn't good. But it was better than Swansea, Hull, and Leicester since the start of 2017, with a vastly better result. And, nearly midway through March, fighting desperately for a top four spot with ten league matches remaining, that's all that matters.

But it's certainly not as if Liverpool's solved their issues against the league's lesser lights.

xG map for Liverpool - Burnley. They got the result, but hardly a performance to show that Liverpool have solved their bad-teams issue. pic.twitter.com/VZ8qubm2cn

— Caley Graphics (@Caley_graphics) March 12, 2017

Burnley held Liverpool to ten shots yesterday. Only Manchester City (5), Chelsea (7), and Manchester United (9) – all at Anfield – have held Liverpool to fewer.

Liverpool had just one big chance – scored by Wijnaldum – but coming because of a fortunate rebound which not only presented the opportunity but took Mee out of the picture. Which, admittedly, is better than zero big chances against either Hull or Leicester, but far fewer than the four against Tottenham or three against Chelsea and Arsenal.

Yesterday saw Liverpool's lowest tackles total and joint-third lowest interceptions total this season, with fewer Liverpool interceptions in only 2-3 Swansea (h) and 5-1 Hull (h), matches where Liverpool had a lot more possession.

I posted this table after the Tottenham match, and it's only gotten worse with the fixtures against Leicester, Arsenal, and now Burnley.



That Bottom 10 opposition shot accuracy. That Bottom 10 Big Chances per game. Oof. And remember, the Bottom 10 averages remain inflated because of much earlier big victories over Leicester, Hull, Watford, and Palace.

Paul Tomkins hits on the biggest problem. Liverpool often aren't physical enough to deal with the bottom half sides, many of whom rely on physicality. On long balls, crosses, and set plays.

This chart seems the most crucial. Liverpool are not only the shortest side, they're nearly the lightest, behind only Manchester City. Another side who's had problems against the sides that Liverpool have problems against.

One more note, this time from Andrew Beasley, although I thoroughly encourage you to go read the whole thing.

Really good. Key stat: Liverpool contest more aerial duels than rest of top six, despite not being direct themselves. Targeted by opposition https://t.co/RPVCFQ7RSX

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) March 13, 2017

Teams know they can "get at" Liverpool. We've seen it in each of the previous three matches we're still moaning about – Swansea, Hull, and Leicester – as well as the first meeting against Burnley.

Here are yesterday's aerial duels, via WhoScored.



This actually isn't bad; there aren't a vast amount in Liverpool's final third, even though Burnley's possession total is slightly higher than the opposition's had in similar matches. There's a lot more than usual in Burnley's half, showing Liverpool's proclivity for long passes in an attempt to get around Burnley, especially in the first half.

Liverpool average 69 long passes per game. They attempted 83 yesterday. And Burnley's center-backs won 21 aerial duels.

Who won the most for Liverpool? Emre Can, with seven. Even when he's not good – see: the entire first half – his physicality is often necessary, because Liverpool's so otherwise lacking in it.

Which makes it fitting that he also scored Liverpool's winner. Liverpool's first outside-the-box goal since December 4th, also from Can. Liverpool took 124 shots from outside the box between those two strikes, 72 in the league and 52 in the FA and League Cups, over 18 matches.

Liverpool's longest stretch without an out-box goal last season was seven matches. Finishing variance is fun. At least Emre picked a hell of a time to break that streak.

And at least it's a start. It's better than we've seen in these matches for a few months, with a vastly better and much-needed result. One which hopefully helps to cure Liverpool's seemingly mental fragility in these fixtures.

It's only the second time Liverpool "won ugly" against a bottom side this season, joining the 2-1 victory at Swansea back in October. It's the third time Liverpool won despite conceding an opening goal within 20 minutes, along with that 2-1 win at Swansea and a 4-1 win over Stoke.

Liverpool needed to prove to itself, as well as the rest of the league, that they can actually do this and win these.

Liverpool's remaining games:



Five against the Top 10, five against the Bottom 10. But more specifically, it's two against the Top 7 – the next two games – six against the middle tier, and two against bad teams, both at Anfield. And there are some very worrisome games in that middle tier: sides that beat or held Liverpool this season (Bournemouth, West Ham, and Southampton), and sides whose style can trouble Liverpool (Stoke and West Brom), both away from home.

There are a lot of potential problems in these final ten matches. Liverpool finally took the necessary first step, but there's quite a long way to go.

Liverpool 2-1 Burnley

Goals:
Barnes 7'
Wijnaldum 45+1'
Can 61'

I'm still not entirely sure how Liverpool won that. That was not good. That looked like it would be a repeat of the last meeting, much to our infinite displeasure.

I'm entirely sure that I do not care how Liverpool won because Liverpool won.

Once again, Burnley seemed to know exactly how to exploit Liverpool's weaknesses, and did so almost immediately. Burnley came at Liverpool, no matter the venue, opposition, or Burnley's away record. Every single attack from the opening whistle was a long pass to Andre Gray in behind, in between Milner and Klavan, looking to take advantage of the striker's pace and Milner's desire to get forward.

So Liverpool's back line starts to drop. So then a deep cross from Lowton without a Liverpool player in spitting distance finds Barnes in between Matip and Clyne. Once again, it's far too easy for Burnley to find space against Liverpool's defense. Once again, Burnley's 4-4-2 formation and Burnley's tactics get over against Liverpool far too easily. Once again, Burnley are ahead thanks to an early goal.

All within seven minutes.

So now Liverpool are behind. Liverpool have to find a way to equalize against a team that's rarely looked like conceding against Liverpool. A physical side who prevented Coutinho and Lallana from creating absolutely anything and dominated aerially. It seemed the rest of the half was Liverpool cross blocked, corner. Corner cleared. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Unlike in the last meeting, Liverpool couldn't even create chances. It wasn't a deep, packed final third; Burnley contested and congested Liverpool's playmakers, denying space higher up the pitch, forcing Liverpool to go wide. There were just three Liverpool shots in the first 45 minutes: Matip from a corner blocked, Can from distance blocked, and Wijnaldum from distance off-target.

But then first-half injury time. Then Wijnaldum. One of those crosses, from Origi pulling wide, and a bit of luck: Wijnaldum's first awkward effort blocked but falling right to his feet with Mee now out of position, reacting quickly to prod a shot past Heaton, with what was basically the last kick of the half. That's now four goals and two assists in Wijnaldum's last six league games at Anfield. Home cooking tastes good.

Liverpool very much needed that goal. Especially since Burnley started the second half as they started the first, on top and threatening, albeit at least not to the extent as earlier. Still, chances for Barnes, Arfield, and Mee, from open play and set plays, three off-target, one blocked. Next to nothing from Liverpool, limited to Lallana wild from distance and a bunch of corners which were easily cleared.

Something had to change. And with a bench comprised of Karius, Moreno, Gomez, Lucas, Alexander-Arnold, Wilson, and Woodburn, there wasn't much that seemed possible. Liverpool's best available players were already on the pitch.

No matter. Coutinho, usually one of Liverpool's most important but demonstrably poor, got the hook on the hour mark. Woodburn, all of 17-years-old and with six Premier League minutes under his belt, came on in his stead.

And Liverpool scored within 60 seconds.

Sure, Ben Woodburn didn't have much to do with it, but it's the thought that count; the willingness to haul off an established star for a kid because the established star hadn't done enough.

A little hold-up play following Liverpool's throw-in, Origi cutting inside to lay off to Can, and Emre Can from nearly 30 yards out, arrowing a low shot into the far corner. Liverpool's first goal from outside the box since Can against Bournemouth in early December. The first time Liverpool's taken a lead in a match where they conceded the opener in 2017.

You'd hope that Liverpool would find a way to close out the match after finally going in front, to patiently control proceedings and deny Burnley opportunities. Nope. Burnley had chances almost immediately after Liverpool scored and with almost the last kick of the game, as Liverpool sat deeper and deeper and invited Burnley forward.

That's partly a function of Liverpool's personnel, tactics, and weaknesses. It's partly a function of what Burnley are capable of, their physicality and ability on set plays and crosses. But the last 30 minutes terrified, from Barnes in the 63rd, a scrambled set play shot blocked at the last moment by Klavan, to Lowton in the 93rd, a volley following a not-fully-cleared long throw scooped over under pressure from Klavan. It was at least slightly less terrifying after Lucas replaced Origi with 10 minutes to go, more secure with the Brazilian as a holding midfielder, but with Liverpool, it's always terrifying, at least in matches like these.

You just have to find a way. Even when you concede at home within seven minutes. Even when you're held to fewer shots than against any side other than Chelsea, City, or United. Even when it's incredibly hard to pick a man of the match because there's no standout; maybe Wijnaldum or Can for their goals or Klavan for his late defending, but each had demonstrable issues today as well.

Liverpool haven't able to this for the last two months, so even after that performance, it's incredibly reassuring when they finally do.

Liverpool v Burnley 03.12.17

12pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
0-2 Burnley (a) 08.20.16
2-0 Liverpool (h) 03.04.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.26.14
4-0 Liverpool (a) 04.25.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Arsenal (h); 1-3 Leicester (a); 2-0 Tottenham (h)
Burnley: 2-3 Swansea (a); 1-1 Hull (a); 0-1 Lincoln (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 12; Firmino 9; Lallana 7; Coutinho, Milner 6; Origi, Wijnaldum 4; Can 3; Lovren, Sturridge 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Burnley: Gray 8; Vokes 5; Hendrick, Keane 2; Barnes 4; Arfield, Barton, Boyd, Brady, Gudmundsson, Marney, Mee, Ward 1

Referee: Craig Pawson

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Lallana Can Wijnaldum
Mané Origi Coutinho

I still have night-sweat terror flashbacks to Liverpool's last match against Burnley. I imagine most of us do.

So it's less than encouraging that Liverpool are going into this game with more injury concerns. Firmino's doubtful after picking up a problem against Arsenal, almost certainly joining Henderson and Sturridge on the sidelines. Henderson and Sturridge are also the last two Liverpool players to score against Burnley, the two finding the net in Liverpool's 2-0 Anfield win in March 2015.

At least Dejan Lovren's back?

Divock Origi up front is obviously a different proposition to Firmino. Firmino's pressing isn't as crucial in matches like these, but his interplay with Mané and Coutinho certainly is, as well as his creativity and ability in tight spaces. Origi will have a hell of a task on his hands. Ideally, as he's such a different option, he'll pose Burnley a much different threat than Firmino, unbalancing a usually resilient defense.

Firmino's struggled in Liverpool's losses, his only goals the two that nearly saw a comeback against Swansea, but unimpressive the last times these sides met and actually poor against Bournemouth, Hull, and Leicester. Meanwhile, Origi's league goals have come against the likes of Sunderland, Bournemouth, West Ham, and Boro.

Only Boro was a comprehensive team performance, but all four came in matches where Liverpool needed a flat-track bully. All four were necessarily goals, two wins, a draw, and an unnecessary loss where others contrived to stupidly stupidly stupidly throw away points at Bournemouth. Hopefully, that flat-track trend continues tomorrow. Because Burnley. Sigh. Burnley. Still that trauma from when these sides first faced in the second match of the season, at Turf Moor, with Liverpool riding high after a 4-3 opening day win at Arsenal.

It was a harbinger of ill to come. Two bad moments in defense: a giveaway error leading to a goal, then a cut-through-the-middle counter, both in the first half. Liverpool's attack throwing itself against a deep brick wall time and time and time and time again, and frustratedly failing. It was Sunderland and Swansea and Hull and Leicester before those matches happened.

Now, Burnley surprisingly sit 12th, despite being winless in their last five, three losses and two draws, including an FA Cup exit to Lincoln City. They're only five points off ninth but only four and goal different off 16th.

Because Burnley are more schizophrenic than ever Liverpool.

Burnley have the joint-fourth best record in the league at home: nine wins, two draws, and just three losses. Only Tottenham, Chelsea, and Liverpool have won more points at home.

Burnley have the worst record in the league away from home: no wins, two draws, and 11 losses.

It says a lot about this Liverpool season that seems more a challenge than an opportunity. As does the fact that Burnley haven't scored at Anfield since 1975.

But also don't read too much into Burnley's record. Whether home or away, Burnley still Burnley. It's 4-4-2. It's a deep, well-organized defense despite averaging more than two-goals-conceded per game on their travels. Most of the big away losses have come against their peers: 0-3 Leicester, 0-4 West Brom, 1-3 Southampton. Matches at Arsenal, City, and Tottenham were all fairly close 2-1 defeats, while they held Manchester United 0-0 at Old Trafford.

Burnley will still Burnley.

Burnley's XI will be missing at least two players who started in the win over Liverpool last August: the central midfield of Marney and Defour, both out injured. As is Gudmundsson, who replaced Defour in that fixture. Tomorrow's midfield will feature two from three players signed since these sides last met: Jeff Hendrick, Joey Barton, or Ashley Westwood.

Barton's available after a recent hamstring injury, as is Tom Heaton after illness kept him out of the last match. Jon Flanagan's obviously ineligible, on loan from Liverpool. The only other line-up question will be up front, whether Ashley Barnes or Sam Vokes partners Andre Gray. Heaton; Lowton, Keane, Mee, Ward; Boyd, Hendrick, Barton, Brady; Gray, Barnes.

Incidentally, the back four will be the exact back four which held Liverpool scoreless last August.

So once again, Liverpool are coming off an encouraging win over Arsenal. Burnley are coming off a damaging defeat to Swansea. Liverpool are favored. Liverpool need to win.

This will be a bigger test than Arsenal was. This will be a stronger sign of what's to come over the next three months as Liverpool chase a top-four spot.

This is where Liverpool need to prove the past few months are actually, definitively in the past.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-2 Burnley

Previous Match Infographics: Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.


No side can go from "We gonna win the league!" to "The sky is falling!" as fast as Liverpool.

We are damaged as a fanbase.

Admittedly, that was bad. Really bad. It was everything Liverpool did badly in similar matches last season taken to the extreme. An inability to score despite an overwhelming disparity in chances. Unpromising chances created despite multiple shots. A reliance on speculative shots from distance. Dismal shooting accuracy. An early, avoidable goal conceded through an error allowing the opposition to bunker in even tighter; a second goal conceded on a counter-attack to put the match further out of reach. Two goals conceded from three shots – the joint-fewest allowed against any opponent since Klopp took over – with all three from outside the box. It was Liverpool's highest passing and possession totals under Klopp, and Liverpool failed to score. Failed to come close to scoring.

But Liverpool were never going to be fixed in two matches. In less than a season under Jürgen Klopp. It takes time, as much as we'd prefer that it didn't. It took Klopp time at Dortmund, and it takes time for any team to adjust to the type of style that Klopp wants to play.

Example:
Spurs in year 1 of Poch press: 53 EPL goals conceded.
Spurs in year 2: 35

— Ted Knutson (@mixedknuts) August 21, 2016

@SimonBrundish @mixedknuts With Dortmund, it actually took until 3rd season for GA to drop https://t.co/D1CmqCBgjH pic.twitter.com/fvpj26XrCQ

— Firminion (@lubomerkov) August 21, 2016

Saturday was just the second match of the season. It's just the second time we've seen this new 4-3-3 formation. It's the second time that Lovren and Klavan have played together, and also the second time Henderson has been used as the sole deep-lying midfielder. It's the second time that Milner's played at left-back for Liverpool. It's Wijnaldum's second match for Liverpool. Etc., etc.

It is still safe to assume that things will get better, as hard as that might be after that result.

That said, it's not as if we haven't seen these issues before.

Klopp:
vs City, Utd, Tot, Ars, Chelsea
P12 L1 conceded 13
vs promoted & relegated EPL teams
P8 L3 conceded 14

— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) August 20, 2016

Dan's tweet includes cup matches against City and United – two wins and a draw (well, a loss on penalties), conceding just two goals. For consistency's sake, let's just look at the league results.




The above table includes Tottenham, City, Chelsea, and Arsenal home and away, and United at home in the "Big Five"; Newcastle and Watford home and away, and Norwich, Villa, Bournemouth, and Burnley away in "Promoted and Relegated."

It doesn't make for good reading.

There's Liverpool's inability to prevent goals by lesser opposition. There's the goal difference against those opponents; if not for the 6-0 win at a horrific Aston Villa, Liverpool's goal difference would be -3 against promoted and relegated clubs. There's Liverpool's shot creation and accuracy against that opposition. There's that 44% (!!!) save accuracy against those opponents – 14 goals from 25 shots on-target. There's Liverpool's inability to save the opposition's fewer clear-cut chances.

There's the fact that Liverpool have conceded three more goals in the eight matches against promoted and relegated clubs than they have in nine matches against the best of the league. Two at Newcastle, three at Watford, four at Norwich, two against Newcastle, two at Burnley. Liverpool conceded more than once in just two of the nine matches against the "Big Five": three in both games against Arsenal, matches that Liverpool drew and won.

There are lots of bad things that have happened in those matches. But there's also a lot of good things that Liverpool did against better opposition. I'll again remind that Liverpool consistently failed to perform or win against good opposition in the vast majority of matches under the previous manager.

We know where Liverpool need to improve: decision-making at both ends of the pitch. Better movement and intelligence in attack, the elimination of errors (especially when transitioning) in defense – something that's now cost Liverpool the opening goal in both matches this season. The players missing yesterday – Mané and/or Ojo in attack, as well as not using Sturridge as a winger; Matip, Sakho, Can, and Karius in defense – should all help in these regards.

Even after this dismal result, I still believe Liverpool have the players and manager to put it right. Ideally, that'll happen sooner rather than later.

Liverpool 0-2 Burnley

Goals:
Vokes 2'
Gray 37'

One step forward, two steps back. The more things change...

This is where everything's gone wrong. This is where Liverpool have failed. Not away against good opposition, where Liverpool have space, where Liverpool over-perform. Not in the marquee matches. Away against teams that Liverpool *should* beat, away against teams Liverpool seem to assume they'll beat.

And then they don't. Because Liverpool perpetually struggle to break down a deep defense and Liverpool perpetually do something stupid in defense.

It's made vastly worse, and vastly more difficult when you unnecessarily concede in the second minute. That's when you get 0-3 at Watford and 0-2 at West Ham and 1-3 at Swansea and countless other matches in seasons past.

This match saw every one of Liverpool's previous failings, exacerbated ad infinitum.

Liverpool concede early because they gave the ball away in their own half. Liverpool concede later on a counter-attack with everyone upfield. Liverpool routinely and horrifically fail with everything in the attacking third. Liverpool resort to speculative-at-best shots from distance that almost totally fail to trouble Tom Heaton.

Liverpool haven't been able to break down teams who sit deep and are well-organized for so many seasons in a row it's not even funny. Yes, it happened less with Luis Suarez, but it still happened with Luis Suarez. It was a distinct problem under Brendan Rodgers, and with nine months of Jürgen Klopp, it remains a problem.

And when that's the case, you probably shouldn't gift the opposition a goal within 90 seconds: Clyne's give-away to Gray with Liverpool trying to build from the back, the striker sliding a pass through to his partner for a wonderful finish from the top of the box, Liverpool's defense completely out of position because they're transitioning to attack and don't expect to concede possession in that position.

You may remember similar happening for Arsenal's first goal just six days ago.

Unlike last week, Coutinho couldn't conjure an equalizer from nothing – not for a lack of trying. And failing. Unlike last week, Burnley didn't give Liverpool an inch of space in the final third.

And when Liverpool conceded a second – Sturridge losing possession in the final third, Defour charging upfield, somehow getting around Klavan before finding Gray, who cleverly worked space for an impressive left-footed strike – that seemed that, despite 53 minutes remaining.

Incidentally, Liverpool have now conceded from each of the last five shots on-target they've faced. The only shot Mignolet's saved since the 7th minute against Arsenal was a penalty. Taken individually, it's hard to fault him for any of the goals, but it's also a trend we've seen before.

The struggle is real, and we've also seen that before. Liverpool completed almost six times as many passes as Burnley, Liverpool had 81% possession. Liverpool completed more than twice as many final third passes as Burnley completed passes in total. Liverpool took 26 shots, Burnley took three shots. But 17 of those Liverpool shots came from outside the box. Just five of those 26 shots were on-target: four from outside the box, and only two which remotely troubled the keeper. 23 Liverpool crosses, but just three found a Liverpool player, and just one – a set play in the last minute – led to a shot. 12 Liverpool corners, zero chances created.

The 4-3-3 formation seemed a problem, weak and uncreative in midfield, without the space needed for runners to make an impact. Sturridge ostensibly on the right seemed a problem, putting Liverpool's best natural goal-scorer further away from goal. Milner rather than Our New Favorite Scapegoat seemed a problem, Liverpool missing width and pace on the left. The substitutions seemed meaningless – Origi for Sturridge, Moreno for Milner, Grujic for Lallana – just different pegs in the same problem holes with the game probably already gone. It's easy to scream, "play 4-2-3-1, play 4-4-2, do something different!" But we've seen Liverpool similarly bad in similar matches with different players, different formations, and different managers.

Let's be fair to the opposition. Burnley's shape was fantastic; Burnley's center-backs blocked, headed, and cleared everything; Burnley's two goals were exceptionally well-taken. But Liverpool seem to have a special talent for making the opposition look that good.

This couldn't have gone worse. The players were bad, the tactics were bad, the substitutions didn't help. The only positive is that no one got hurt.

Well, that and Liverpool might learn a lesson. It is only the second week of the season, after all. That they haven't yet doesn't bode well, but we needed the reminder. Not everything was fixed with last week's euphoric win. There are more matches like this than there are matches like last week's.

There are still miles upon miles to go to even come close to achieving anything.

Liverpool at Burnley 08.20.16

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (h) 03.04.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.26.14
4-0 Liverpool (a) 04.25.10
4-0 Liverpool (h) 10.12.09

Last match:
Liverpool: 4-3 Arsenal (a)
Burnley: 0-1 Swansea (h)

Referee: Lee Mason

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Klavan Milner
Can Wijnaldum
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

With Sadio Mané almost certainly out due to a slight shoulder injury, Liverpool have two options: either the same formation as at Arsenal, with Can coming into midfield and Lallana shifting into attack, or a switch to 4-2-3-1 with either Sturridge or Origi up front, Lallana-Firmino-Coutinho in the line of three, and two from Wijnaldum, Henderson, and Can in midfield.

This, much more than last week's match, will be evidence of how determined Klopp is to use a 4-3-3 formation this season. On paper, it's a match seemingly better suited for a 4-2-3-1. Liverpool will have a lot more of the ball. Liverpool will need less of the breaking-the-lines counter-attack from midfield, with less emphasis on pressing in midfield. Liverpool will need more cutting edge up front: attackers capable of going around and through a resilient defense and single-handedly creating and scoring chances when there are seven or eight opposition players behind the ball.

But 4-3-3 has seemed the preferred formation so far this short season, and I wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see it again, with Sturridge/Origi again left out, or with one as the central striker, Firmino moving to the right, and three from Lallana, Wijnaldum, Henderson, and Can in midfield.

The other line-up question is, unsurprisingly, at left back. Will it be Milner or Moreno? Too many pixels, too many words, too much ink has been written, said, and spilled about Moreno's performance last week. We know it wasn't good, but it also wasn't as bad as made out. And in a match like tomorrow's should be, Liverpool could need his pace and width. But Milner's fit again, and, yes, Moreno wasn't good last week. Milner's steadier, Milner's a better crosser, and Milner can get up and down the pitch as well, if not as quickly. We need to see what Milner's capable of in this position if he's going to be used there with any regularity this season, and tomorrow's match should be a decent opportunity to do so.

Jöel Matip's also back from injury (while Sakho and Lucas aren't far off), but I'd be surprised if he takes the place of either Klavan or Lovren. I suspect his first appearance will be Liverpool's cup tie at Burton Albion next Tuesday.

Burnley struggled at home against Swansea on opening day, a tepid 0-1 loss with the visitors scoring late. Less possession, worse passing, and seven fewer shots, despite being on their own ground, and being a newly-promoted side looking to impress against what might be one of their rivals for relegation. The loss was Burnley's first in a league match since December 2015, finishing the second half of their Championship-winning campaign unbeaten. Welcome back to the Premier League.

That said, basically all of Burnley's chances came from either set plays or counter-attacks, even though they were at home, even though they were against Swansea. And we all know how much Liverpool love messing up at least one of those opportunities in matches that Liverpool are supposed to win.

Burnley's XI will pretty much be the same as last week's. Heaton; Lowton, Keane, Mee, Ward; Boyd, Marney, Defour, Arfield; Gray, Vokes. The only change is in midfield: record signing Steven Defour replacing recently sold David Jones. Jon Flanagan is, of course, ineligible due to the terms of his loan.

It'll be 4-4-2, it'll be two compact lines of four, it'll be reliant on keeping Liverpool out and hoping Andre Gray or Sam Vokes can conjure something on the break. Gray scored 23 goals last season, and had chances last week. He just couldn't take them. That probably won't last.

More than half of Burnley's likely XI were a part of the sides which faced Liverpool in 2014-15. Which twice lost to Liverpool in 2014-15 without scoring. Both of those games were too close for comfort, both saw Burnley defend reasonably well, but both saw Burnley struggle to create anything in Liverpool's half, with one shot on-target (from 26 in total) over 180 minutes.

Don't do anything dumb in defense, and prove that this is a better attack than we saw in away matches where Liverpool were heavily favored last season. We still remember the 0-2 at Newcastle and at 0-3 Watford, the 1-3 at Swansea and 1-1 at West Brom.

Last week was a tremendous, if unnecessarily frightening, way to start the campaign. But this will be an entirely different challenge than last week, one which has often been harder for Liverpool to navigate.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-0 Burnley

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Besiktas (a), Southampton (a), Besiktas (h), Tottenham (h), Everton (a), West Ham (h), Chelsea (a) [League Cup], Chelsea (h) [League Cup], Villa (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Swansea (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (a), Basel (h), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke (h), Ludogorets (a), Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

A professional, comprehensive, industrious performance. And only three or four top-class saves prevented it from being a resounding result.

It's the second consecutive match where Liverpool allowed just one shot on-target. In both matches against Burnley, the Clarets put just the one shot on-target, out of 25 in total. And that one shot on-target was Barnes' attempted header across goal to Ings just before halftime yesterday. So, yes, Liverpool have defended well in both fixtures, but 4% shooting accuracy isn't conducive to earning points against Liverpool.

It was Liverpool's sixth clean sheet in the last eight league matches: at Sunderland, at Villa, v West Ham, at Everton, at Southampton, and v Burnley. Sure, it's not the most difficult stretch of fixtures, but four of those clean sheets came away from Anfield, which is no small matter. Liverpool have allowed 55 shots in those six matches – an average of 9.2 per match – with just 14 on-target. Just 2.3 per match, just 25% accuracy. You're not gonna concede many goals when you limit the opposition to that.

Liverpool's 580 completed passes (674 attempted) were the second-most in a match this season, behind the 653 in the 0-1 loss to Villa in September. There have been just three other matches where Liverpool completed more than 500 passes this season: the aforementioned loss to Villa, the first match against Southampton, and the 2-2 draw against Arsenal. It happened 11 times last season and six times in 2012-13.

There were simply no weaknesses in the side, in the performance. Okay, the opposition wasn't great and the finishing could have been better, but the defense, midfield, and attack were all above par. Limiting Burnley's chances with no errors from defense, and with both Lovren and Can comfortable in possession. Henderson and Allen again a fairly flawless pairing: knowing when to go and when to sit, pressing in tandem, both adding to Liverpool's attack (although Henderson obviously did more going forward). Some lovely interplay and movement in attack, with Sturridge getting closer to finding his form. You'd hope for more involvement from Sterling, relegated to wing-back, but he still had some outstanding moments, and it's worth noting that the 20-year-old played three different positions – right wing-back, left wing-back, and central striker – none of them his preferred position.

Along with Henderson, Coutinho was the star: dominating the ball, singlehandedly creating more chances than Burnley did, the most successful dribbles in the match (five; Burnley had seven in total), inches away from scoring a third wonder goal in as many matches. We worried he wouldn't be able to find the space that Manchester City's midfield allowed, with Burnley deep and tight and resilient, but that wasn't an issue at all. What a wonderful footballer he's becoming. A wonderful all-around footballer, now that he's improved his shooting over the last few matches.

Once again, Liverpool's shooting was above average shooting from distance, with four of 12 shots from outside the box on-target (including Henderson's opener). And that's a decline from the previous two matches. Three of Liverpool's last five goals have come from outside the box (after scoring three in the first 25 league matches), and Liverpool's shooting accuracy from outside the box was 50% (nine of 18) in those three matches. That's insane.

With Liverpool's goals from distance improving, hopefully goals from headers will follow. Sturridge's goal was Liverpool's first headed goal in the league since Skrtel's 97th-minute equalizer against Arsenal on December 21. 12 matches ago. 951 minutes ago. 22 goals ago. In the meantime, Gerrard did score with a header at Wimbledon, and Shelvey headed in an own goal against Swansea, but it speaks to a weakness in the side, both from open play and set plays. Liverpool now have three headed goals in the league: those two and Johnson's winner against Stoke in December (although they've scored four more in cup competition). At this point last season, Liverpool had scored 12 headed goals in the league, from Sturridge (5), Suarez (3), Skrtel (2), Agger (1), and Gerrard (1). It's a weakness that should be remedied as Sturridge returns to full fitness.