Liverpool at Wolves 12.21.18

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Wolves (h; FA Cup) 28.01.17
3-0 Liverpool (a) 31.01.12
2-1 Liverpool (h) 09.24.11
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.22.11

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 United (h); 1-0 Napoli (h); 4-0 Bournemouth (h)
Wolves: 2-0 Bournemouth (h); 2-1 Newcastle (a); 2-1 Chelsea (h)

Goal-scorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 10; Mané 7; Shaqiri 5; Firmino 4; Milner 3; Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Origi, Wijnaldum 1
Wolves: Jimenez 5; Cavaleiro, Doherty 3; Jota, Neves 2; Boly, Jonny, Moutinho, Traore 1

Referee: Craig Pawson (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Clyne Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Fabinho
Shaqiri Firmino Mané
Salah

We're about enter the absolute meat of the festive season, but Liverpool have it easier than most, with five days until the next match and the most rest days of any side during the next two weeks. They aren't the softest of fixtures – Arsenal at home, City away, and this match, away at an unsurprisingly competent promoted side – but Liverpool will at least have a few days off between each.

So I'm unsure just how much rotation we'll see tomorrow. But this season's Liverpool often has me unsure as to how much rotation we'll see, in any match.

Milner may return tomorrow. Alexander-Arnold will probably be back for the next match, although this comes too soon. So chances are Clyne stays at right back. And both Matip and Gomez are out for a few more weeks, so unless we're throwing one of the babies in, Lovren and van Dijk will remain the center-backs. Otherwise, it'll basically be first-choice available in every position. The questions are whether Klopp thinks all those first-choice players can handle the work load, who Klopp actually considers first-choice, and what formation they'll be playing in.

So, as has become typical with this season's previews, I've thrown my hands up and guessed almost exactly what we saw against United, but with Shaqiri coming in for Keïta. Because why the hell not. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Henderson in midfield, or 4-3-3. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of near-permanent players rested, whether it's Robertson or Wijnaldum or Firmino or Mané. Sturridge remains an option up front, in either preferred formation used this season.

Having four games over 13 days will tell us quite a bit about how Klopp sees this squad. And how good this squad actually is.

Meanwhile, Wolves. Before the start of the season, they threatened to be one of the strongest promoted sides in recent memory, and so far they've proven to be so. They're currently seventh, a point behind United in the race to be best of the rest. Sure, they wobbled in October and November, losing five and drawing once, but have won three in a row since, including a 2-1 home win over Chelsea.

Nuno Espirito Santo has stuck with a three at-the-back formation of late, whether 3-4-2-1, 3-4-3, or 3-4-1-2. Tomorrow's suggested to be 3-4-1-2 given the way that 18-year-old Morgan Gibbs-White has played recently. He's likely to sit in the hole behind two strikers, but has also played as the most advanced attacker.

So it'll be something like Rui Patricio; Bennett, Coady, Boly; Doherty, Moutinho, Neves, Jonny; Gibbs-White; Jimenez, Costa. Diego Jota is out injured, picking up a hamstring problem in last weekend's match. Adama Traore has been a substitute more often than not, but could be used for his pace on the counter, while Ivan Cavaleiro is another option in attack. Special mention for Liverpool Academy graduate Conor Coady, who's established himself as both a center-back – used primarily as a defensive midfielder when at Liverpool – and Wolves' captain.

Wolves have been excellent against the top-six so far this season, losing to Tottenham at home but beating Chelsea and drawing with City, Arsenal, and United. They're very good on the counter and good at not conceding, with only Tottenham, Chelsea, City, and Liverpool allowing fewer goals. They've only kept five league clean sheets but have only conceded more than twice in one match this season: the aforementioned 2-3 loss to Tottenham.

But Liverpool have been excellent against almost everyone, dominating few but beating most. Still, this isn't your usual match against promoted opposition, with Wolves far better than the usual promoted opposition and a packed fixture list about to get even more full. This can't be the place where Liverpool slip up.

Liverpool at Burnley 12.05.18

2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Gold

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.01.18
1-1 (h) 09.16.17
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.12.17
0-2 Burnley (a) 08.20.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Everton (h); 1-2 PSG (a); 3-0 Watford (a)
Burnley: 0-2 Palace (a); 1-2 Newcastle (h); 0-0 Leicester (a)

Goal-scorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 7; Mané 6; Firmino 3; Milner, Shaqiri, Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Origi, Wijnaldum 1
Burnley: Vokes 3; Barnes, Gudmundsson, Tarkowski 2; Hendrick, Lennon, Vydra, Wood 1

Referee: Stuart Attwell (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Moreno
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Sturridge Shaqiri

The first midweek league match of the season. The second of eight matches in December.

You have to assume there will be changes, will be rotation. But your guess is as good as mine as to how or whom.

What formation Liverpool plays is probably dependent on who plays. So let's guess a few absentees. There are two new injury doubts: Mané's got a cut on his foot which needed stitches, Robertson has a minor knock. Firmino's struggled for form. Liverpool have five available midfielders with Keïta fit and Henderson back from suspension.

With Mané potentially absent, Sturridge or Origi in line for a start, and all the central midfielders in contention, 4-3-3 seems more likely. I'm dubious of completely changing the midfield, but Fabinho's struggled in 4-3-3 and Wijnaldum's played more minutes than any other midfielder so far. So, there's the above guess, along with the preferred back four but with Moreno for Robertson, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Lovren or Matip either. But that's almost certainly going to be wrong in some places.

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see something more a 4-4-2 than the 4-2-3-1 we've seen lately, with two from Sturridge, Firmino, Origi and possibly Salah up front, but I'm also skeptical. If Firmino plays with another striker, it'll probably be 4-2-3-1. Origi's goal on Sunday is a wonderful story, but I doubt it makes him more likely to start matches, at least at this point.

Meanwhile, Burnley. Yikes. Karma catches up with you eventually.

Burnley had been the wizards of the Premier League in the previous two seasons. Over-performing both xG and xG against. A supremely difficult side to play again, allowing a ton of shots but very few good shots, and conceding surprisingly few goals while scoring *just enough.*

That hasn't been the case this season. At all. Well, they're still over-performing xG both for and against, although not by a ton. They've just been bad at the football. Only Huddersfield, Palace, Newcastle, and Southampton have scored fewer goals. Only Fulham has conceded more goals. They're 19th place, a point ahead of Fulham. They haven't won in more than two months, with five losses and two draws since the end of September.

And the only real line-up change from last season is Joe Hart in goal, so make of that what you will.

Burnley can't even blame injuries or absentees, other than Hart starting ahead of Nick Pope. They've again had one of the more settled sides in the league. Sure, Defour, Brady, and Tarkowski are doubtful for tomorrow's match, but the latter seems likely to start anyway and Burnley have experienced replacements for the two others.

If both Brady and Defour miss out, it'll probably be Hart; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Lennon, Westwood, Cork, Gudmundsson; Hendrick; Wood. Either Vokes or Barnes could start ahead of Wood up front. Maybe Burnley go more 4-4-2 with one of them paired with Wood in place of Hendrick. If Defour's available, he'll replace Westwood. If Brady is, he could play on either flank.

For all of Burnley's struggles, I remain nervous. A midweek match, with key players likely absent for Liverpool. An opponent who's given them problems in the past, no matter current form; last season's 1-1 at Anfield, the 0-2 at Burnley in 2016-17, even last season's 2-1 win at Burnley, decided thanks to Ragnar Klavan's only league goal for Liverpool, scored in the 90th minute. Liverpool are coming off a massive, morale-boosting win, but one achieved via fluke rather than force. Liverpool still aren't in the best form either, especially going forward.

We're reaching the point of the season where it doesn't matter how wins are achieved, with this many matches in quick succession, with crucial players needing rest or recuperation. Which, to be fair, is how we've felt for almost the entire season so far – a record amount of points at this phase of the season for Liverpool, but earned without ever truly impressing.

No matter. Just keep doing that. By any means necessary.

Liverpool v Everton 12.02.18

11:15am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (a) 04.07.18
2-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.05.18
1-1 (h) 12.10.17
3-1 Liverpool (h) 04.01.17

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 PSG (a); 3-0 Watford (a); 2-0 Fulham (h)
Everton: 1-0 Cardiff (h); 0-0 Chelsea (a); 3-1 Brighton (h)

Goal scorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 7; Mané 6; Firmino 3; Milner, Shaqiri, Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Everton: Richarlison, Sigurðsson 6; Calvert-Lewin, Tosun, Walcott 2; Coleman, Keane 1

Referee: Chris Kavanagh (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Fabinho Wijnaldum
Shaqiri Firmino Mané
Salah

Is the Merseyside Derby more or less fun when Everton is actually decent?

It's been a while since we were nervous going into this match. Even when Liverpool are off-form, Everton usually aren't much better. And Everton always come into the match with a massive inferiority complex. Sometimes it leads to last season's league meetings, a dire 0-0 at Goodison, an unfortunate and almost unfair 1-1 at Anfield. Slow, slow deaths rather than fire and fury.

But Everton have a new, more progressive manager. Everton are in good form. Everton press, Everton attack, Everton actually score. And Liverpool – despite still unbeaten in the league, despite still second in the league and actually almost keeping pace with Manchester City – are doing those things intermittently, are doing those things less than in the last season or two.

Everton are more free-flowing compared to previous iterations. Liverpool are grittier, uglier. Does this change the way either side almost always approaches the Merseyside Derby?

Wednesday's match at Paris St-Germain was something of an advertisement for this season's 4-2-3-1 formation. Or, at least, an explanation why Liverpool have been using that rather than the 4-3-3. If the attack's going to struggle, if chances are fewer and farther between, it makes sense to get more attackers who can create and shoot and score on the pitch. So it seems as if Liverpool will do so again.

That Henderson is suspended after last week's red card seemingly makes that more likely. Fabinho hasn't looked great as the holding midfielder in a three-man unit. Wijnaldum can play there, but hasn't so far this season. Chances are we see those two as a pairing, but Wijnaldum-Milner-Keïta isn't completely out of the question if Klopp decides to stick with the 4-3-3. That should, at least, be a more dynamic unit than that deployed in France. And even in the 4-2-3-1, Fabinho or Keïta seems a valid question now that the latter is fit, with Wijnaldum capable of playing in a more reserved role and Keïta more likely than any other Liverpool midfield to break lines and add to the attack.

Just do more of the attack, Liverpool. Fix the attack, Liverpool. The defense is doing more than fine at the other end of the pitch.

Meanwhile, Everton. The first of the rest outside the top five, a point ahead of Manchester United. Marco Silva's got Everton doing well enough at the sharp end of the piych – 10th in the league in xG, sixth in shots taken, doing more through volume rather than precision – but they're much better in defense, fourth in shots allowed, eighth in xG allowed, and fifth in goals allowed. Much better defensively, I'll add, under Marco Silva than "defensive manager" Sam Allardyce.

Everton's defense starts in midfield. It starts with Idrissa Gueye, superlative at closing angles and taking the ball away from the opposition. That sort of one-man midfield wall makes me nervous given Liverpool struggles progressing from midfield to attack when in possession. Gueye's the sort of midfield who'll cut out all those entry passes to Salah and Firmino when Liverpool try to advance into dangerous attacking positions.

Get around Gueye and that's a defense that can be gotten at, whether it's Andre Gomes' lack of extra protection or Coleman and Digne's attacking from fullback or Keane's ability to commit errors at unwelcome times or Yerry Mina still acclimatizing to Everton and to England. It's getting around Gueye that's harder than it seems.

The XI seems likely to be Pickford; Coleman, Keane, Mina, Digne; Gomes, Gueye; Walcott, Sigurðsson, Bernard; Richarlison. That's the side used against both Chelsea and Cardiff in the last two matches. Ten of those 11 started the three previous matches as well, with only Zouma preferred to Yerry Mina. Everton have no real injuries and a fairly settled XI. Maybe Lookman replaces Walcott or Bernard, or Tosun or Calvert-Lewin start up top with Richarlison on the flanks, but that's about it. I find it hard to believe they'll change tack that much going into this.

As crucial as Gueye is to Everton's defense, Sigurðsson and Richarlison are to Everton's attack. Richarlison on fast breaks, Richardlison on the end of crosses and through balls. Sigurðsson from distance, Sigurðsson from set plays, whether the corner cross in or direct free kicks. Six goals each, through just 13 matches. Everton's top scorer last season was Wayne Rooney, who scored all of ten goals through the entire campaign.

Everton are dangerous opponents. Everton are an honest-to-goodness decent side. But, then again, I'm yet to be convinced that form actually matters in this match. Everton haven't won a derby since 2010, when Roy Hodgson was Liverpool's manager. Everton haven't won at Anfield since 1999, when Trent Alexander-Arnold was 11 months old. Until proven otherwise, Everton need to demonstrate they can do more than ugly up these matches. Everton still need to prove that they can compete.

However, this is the Everton side best-placed to compete in a very long time.

Liverpool v Fulham 11.11.18

7am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-2 Liverpool (a) 02.12.14
4-0 Liverpool (h) 11.09.13
3-1 Liverpool (a) 05.12.13
4-0 Liverpool (h) 12.22.12

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Red Star (a); 1-1 Arsenal (a): 4-1 Cardiff (h)
Fulham: 0-1 Huddersfield (a); 0-2 City (a); 0-3 Bournemouth (h)

Goal scorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 6; Salah 5; Firmino, Milner, Sturridge 2; Matip, Shaqiri, Wijnaldum 1
Fulham: Mitrovic 5; Schürrle 4; Seri, Sessegnon 1

Referee: Paul Tierney (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Gomez Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Shaqiri Henderson Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

There are no easy matches.

Tuesday was supposed to be easy. The lowest ranked team in Liverpool's Champions League group. A team Liverpool beat 4-0 two weeks earlier. A 0-2 loss, conceding twice in seven minutes before spending the next hour throwing water balloons at a brick wall and expecting damage to result. Little creativity, no potency.

There are no easy matches. You come correct or you pay for it.

That said, Fulham are not good. Incredibly not good, sitting at the foot of the table, having one just once in the league back at the end of August. Having drawn just twice, the last coming six weeks ago. Surprisingly not good, considering they spent more than any club except Liverpool last summer.

So how are Liverpool going to punish Fulham? How are Liverpool going to respond to Tuesday's failure?

We'll have a few more players to pick from than on Tuesday. Keïta, Henderson, Lovren, and Gomez are all available after injury and illness concerns. Shaqiri's back in the squad, left out for Red Star due to political concerns. Liverpool can revamp the faltering, workmanlike-and-little-more midfield – the biggest problem area so far this season – which *should* help Liverpool create more and better chances, although Liverpool will still need to finish them.

So does that mean Keïta comes in, a more willing and able late runner into the box, a more dynamic offensive player, a more thorough and forceful presser? Or Henderson, usually better in matches against the lesser lights, his passing and possession able to pin sides deeper and deeper. Or Shaqiri, the most creative midfielder so far, even if he's played as a winger or #10 more often in his short Liverpool career?

Maybe Liverpool stick with the 4-2-3-1 which worked reasonably well when hosting Red Star and Cardiff. Shaqiri can play as the #10 or on the right, Salah out wide or up front, Firmino as the #10 or up front – although Firmino's lack of form has almost been as big an issue as the midfield. Fabinho's looked far, far better in this formation and, in theory, could play next to either Keïta – who played in this formation at Red Bull – or Henderson.

Or maybe we get the more familiar 4-3-3, with either Fabinho again adjusting to Liverpool's preferred formation alongside two others or Henderson as the deepest midfielder, bracketed by two from Keïta, Wijnaldum, Milner, and Shaqiri.

Liverpool, unlike in the last couple of matches, have more options thanks to the return of a couple midfielders. And, as a lesser concern, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Gomez continue at right back, both with Alexander-Arnold out of form and with Lovren – not Matip – available after missing midweek. I say "lesser concern" because, despite conceding twice at Red Star, the defense still ain't broken. Conceding a corner – just the second of the season after Tottenham's very late consolation – and an incredibly fortunate shot from distance ain't the end of the world. Nor does it suggest underlying issues.

Fulham have underlying issues. In every phase of play. Fulham should be a lot better than they've been.

That's a good squad. Mitrovic and Schürrle in attack, with five and four goals respectively. Seri and Anguissa in midfield. Ryan Sessegnon – still only 18 – as a winger or full back. £100m spent last summer.

Mitrovic and Schürrle – the only players with more than one goal – aside, they should score more goals than they have. They be more coherent in passing and possession. They've the tools and players to press the opposition more but haven't. They've conceded in every match this season except the first League Cup round against League Two Exeter, they've conceded at least two in all but two league matches. Their Expected Goals Difference is second-worst in the league, their Expected Points is third-worst.

It is confusing. And you'd think that if results don't change soon, Slavisa Jokanovic will be out of a job.

After trialling multiple XIs and formations, Jokanovic went with what's seemingly the best fit at Huddersfield on Monday. 4-3-3, with Sessegnon – who'd been playing more often as a winger – back at left-back; Cairney, Anguissa, and Seri as a three-man midfield for the first time this season; and Vietto, Mitrovic, and Schürrle all up front.

And they lost 0-1, again unable to get going in attack, unable to break down a Huddersfield side that admittedly gave Liverpool similar problems, unable to turn a possession advantage into chances, and also conceding an unfortunate fairly early own goal.

That said, I'm still guessing the same XI as in that match. Maybe I'm playing Football Manager here, but these still seem Fulham's best players in the formation most likely to succeed. Bettinetti; Fosu-Mensah, Odoi, Marchand, Sessegnon; Cairney, Anguissa, Seri; Vietto, Mitrovic, Schürrle.

We've got a Liverpool with key players returning, possibly rusty, probably not match-fit, but still likely to help the side. We've got a Liverpool needing to respond to a setback earlier this week. We've got a Liverpool that's yet to perform to potential but still unbeaten, still only two points off first, still with 27 points from a possible 33, the best return at this point in many a year.

And we've got opponents who are bottom of the league, massively underperforming, coming off a loss to potential relegation rivals. At Anfield.

There's one way this should go. Whether it's another narrow win where we lament some things that didn't go right or an absolute whomping. It should be a Liverpool win all the same.

Liverpool at Arsenal 11.03.18

1:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
3-3 (a) 12.22.17
4-0 Liverpool (h) 08.27.17
3-1 Liverpool (h) 03.04.17
4-3 Liverpool (a) 08.14.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-1 Cardiff (h); 4-0 Red Star (h); 1-0 Huddersfield (a)
Arsenal: 2-1 Blackpool (h); 2-2 Palace (a); 1-0 Sporting Lisbon (a)

Goal scorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 6; Salah 5; Firmino, Sturridge 2; Matip, Milner, Shaqiri, Wijnaldum 1
Arsenal: Aubameyang 7; Lacazette 4; Özil 3; Xhaka 2; Iwobi, Mkhitaryan, Monreal, Mustafi, Ramsey, Welbeck 1

Referee: Andre Marriner (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Fabinho
Shaqiri Firmino Mané
Salah

If it ain't broke.

Two games in a row with 4-2-3-1, with Fabinho and Wijnaldum holding, with a line of Firmino, Mane, and Shaqiri behind Salah.

Two wins while scoring four goals in each, conceding just one unnecessary goal late against Cardiff.

True, Arsenal are not Red Star or Cardiff. I would not be surprised to see Henderson or Milner come in for Shaqiri, to see Liverpool's more familiar formation. I wouldn't be surprised to see both Henderson and Milner if Liverpool return 4-3-3, with Fabinho also making way. I hope to see Gomez come back in for Lovren, with Alexander-Arnold on the right.

But if it ain't broke.

If there weren't three unbeaten teams in the league, Arsenal would be getting even more publicity and praise. They started the season with two losses, their first without Arsene Wenger as manager since 1996. Two understandable losses – against Manchester City and at Chelsea. And then they went on an 11-match winning streak before a draw at Palace last weekend, then winning with the B-team in the League Cup against Blackpool on Wednesday.

Seven wins, one draw, and two losses. 22 points, just two behind Chelsea and four behind Liverpool and City.

They're quite good in attack. Arsenal have scored four more goals than Liverpool so far this campaign. They put three past West Ham, Cardiff, and Leicester, and five past Fulham. They've scored at least twice in every league match except the opening day fixture at Manchester City.

Granted, they're seemingly over-performing – an Expected Goals total just over 14, but with 24 goals actually scored – but that's not entirely a bad thing. Liverpool over-performed by a similar margin last season and it was a lot of fun to watch unless you were playing Liverpool.

They're not quite as good defensively, having conceded nine more goals than Liverpool. They've kept just two clean sheets in the league, at home against Everton and Watford more than a month ago. Their 13 goals conceded, in contrast to the attack, is almost exactly in line with xG totals.

It's slightly understandable, both given Unai Emery's style – playing out from the back, reasonably heavy pressing, an emphasis on attacking patterns – and Arsenal's defensive injuries and the actual defenders involved. But it still ain't great. It's definitely something Liverpool can take advantage of.

And Arsenal might be without both starting fullbacks tomorrow; Bellerin went off with an injury at halftime at Palace while Monreal has missed the last four matches. Both could be in contention, but will be assessed tomorrow, as will Sokratis and Kolasinac. Elneny, Koscielny, and Mavropanos are injured and Guendouzi is suspended.

Arsenal do have options, and have had to use them over the last month. If only Bellerin's fit, Kolasinac or Lichtsteiner will play at left-back. They'd have played there more if not for Bellerin's and Kolasinac's respective injuries, meaning that Xhaka has been the stand-in left-back for the last few matches. If Bellerin's unable to feature, Lichtsteiner will stay at right-back with either Kolasinac or Xhaka on the other flank.

Otherwise, the Arsenal XI has been fairly consistent during their unbeaten stretch. Cech; Lichtsteiner, Mustafi, Holding, Xhaka; Torreira, Ramsey; Iwobi, Özil, Aubameyang; Lacazette.

Emery may be slightly more cautious than the recent attacking formations used, dropping one of Lacazatte or Aubameyang to the bench for Welbeck or Mkhitaryan. Cech's fit again – with Leno having started the previous three league matches – but Cech also pulled a Cech in the League Cup a few days ago, allowing Blackpool back in the game so *shrugs*.

These matches have been fairly bananas since Klopp took over. 3-3 at Arsenal in January 2016. 4-3 at Arsenal on Opening Day in 2016-17. Romps at Anfield in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, 3-1 and 4-0 respectively. And another 3-3 at Arsenal last December, Liverpool up 2-0 before conceding three in five minutes, then at least clawing a point back. Three goals scored by at least one side in all five fixtures, and by both sides in three of them.

Both sides have the potential to do so tomorrow. There are goals in those XIs, as we've seen from Arsenal over the last couple of months, as we've seen from Liverpool only sporadically this season, albeit more in the last two matches.

Liverpool, however, looks the more likely to keep the opposition from doing so.

Liverpool v Cardiff City 10.27.18

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
6-3 Liverpool (a) 03.22.14
3-1 Liverpool (h) 12.21.13
2-2 Liverpool aet (n; League Cup) 02.26.12
2-1 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.31.07

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-0 Red Star (h); 1-0 Huddersfield (a); 0-0 City (h)
Cardiff: 4-2 Fulham (h); 0-1 Tottenham (a); 1-2 Burnley (h)

Goal scorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané, Salah 4; Firmino, Sturridge 2; Matip, Milner, Wijnaldum 1
Cardiff: J Murphy 2; Bamba, Camarasa, Harris, Paterson, Reid, Ward 1

Referee: Stuart Attwell (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Fabinho Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

There’s a very good argument for not changing the XI from Wednesday.

I mean, y’all saw the match. Liverpool were good. Liverpool were creative. Liverpool scored four and could have had a few more and didn’t even allow a single shot on-target. And it was the first time in a while we could say those things about the attack.

So why change?

Maybe Liverpool shouldn’t. There will be a week before traveling to Arsenal, Liverpool without a midweek game. Cardiff will do some things similarly to Red Star. Liverpool were both more creative and even more secure through the middle with Wednesday’s formation and XI.

But Klopp rotates. Liverpool have a reasonably large squad – even with Keïta and Henderson still absent – and Liverpool want to use that squad. Klopp spent some of today’s press conference talking up Origi, Solanke, Clyne, and Matip – players who’ve barely if at all featured so far this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two names we don’t expect nor would I be surprised to see a return to the more familiar 4-3-3 formation – a formation that Fabinho will have to acclimatize to at some point.

So the above guess is a hedge between those factors. Even if it is desperately unfair to Shaqiri, who has been excellent in the last two matches. Heck, maybe I should just guess the same XI as last time.

Meanwhile, Cardiff may have just gotten their first win last week, but it’s been an understandably difficult road to this point. They’ve already hosted Arsenal and Manchester City and travelled to Chelsea and Tottenham, losing 2-3, 0-5, 1-4, and 0-1 in those matches. This’ll be their tenth games of the campaign and five of them will have been against last season’s top six. The last two recent losses prior to Fulham were a lot narrower, one-goal defeats to Burnley and Tottenham, only losing 1-0 at Spurs despite conceding in the eighth minute and having a player sent off in the 58th.

Without any real point of comparison, my best guess is the same XI that beat Fulham. Etheridge; Manga, Morrison, Bamba, Bennett; Camarasa, Gunnarsson, Arter, J Murphy; Reid; Paterson. Ralls will miss out in midfield, serving the second of a three-match ban for a red card at Tottenham, but Aron Gunnarsson’s finally fit, having made his first start in the last match. Camarasa can pay both centrally or out wide; Paterson has started up top lately but can also play deeper. Cardiff could start Hoilett out wide or Danny Ward (not that one) or Gary Madine up front if changes are to be made.

Neil Warnock has never won as manager at Anfield, losing 4-0 with Notts County, 2-0 and 4-0 with Sheffield United, and 1-0 with Queens Park Rangers, but he did win his last match against Liverpool during his short reign as Palace manager, 1-3 at Palace in November 2014.

And Warnock’s already talking down his side’s potential, saying that it’s “virtually impossible” to win at Anfield these days. He’s not necessarily wrong, even if that is gamesmanship to put even more pressure on Liverpool while taking it off his side. “Oh, poor us, we’ll never get anything” and then if they do get anything, break out the bus we’re having a parade.

Cardiff, unsurprisingly, are a very Championship squad playing a very Championship style. It’s what Neil Warnock knows, it’s what Neil Warnock’s always done. They’re strong in the air and at set plays. They absolutely love crosses. Josh Murphy, Reid, and Hoillett are quick on the counter. They’re rugged and deep defensively. They want next to nothing to do with the ball, joint-lowest in possession along with Brighton and with the worst passing accuracy in the league by far.

The Brighton comparison actually works reasonably well. Chris Hughton’s side was built in a similar manner, plays a similar style. And Brighton gave Liverpool problems two months ago, holding Liverpool reasonably at bay at Anfield despite an early goal from Salah and multiple Liverpool chances, even nearly finding an equalizer through Groß’ late clear-cut chance.

Liverpool nearly dropped two points in that Brighton match because of an inability to convert their own chances, something we’ve complained about multiple times this season. We certainly weren’t complaining about that on Wednesday – well, “complain” isn’t the right word; Liverpool scored four but another two or three wouldn’t have flattered.

More of that please. We know that Liverpool are capable of doing so.

Liverpool at Huddersfield 10.20.18

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.30.18
3-0 Liverpool (h) 10.28.17
2-0 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 12.12.99
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.12.72

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 City (h); 0-1 Napoli (a); 1-1 Chelsea (a)
Huddersfield: 1-1 Burnley (a); 0-2 Tottenham (h); 1-3 Leicester (a)

Goal scorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 4; Salah 3; Firmino, Sturridge 2; Matip, Milner, Wijnaldum 1
Huddersfield: Billing, Gorenc-Stankovic, Schindler, Zanka 1

Referee: Michael Oliver (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Shaqiri

I love international breaks.

Sadio Mane has a broken thumb, undergoing surgery on Wednesday. Mo Salah supposedly re-injured his temperamental groin – yes, I’m aware that’s a euphemism doing a lot of work – and returned to Liverpool after Egypt’s first international match. Virgil van Dijk’s still dealing with that rib problem. Naby Keïta pulled his hamstring. And, even though I can’t blame the international break, James Milner is still recovering from a hamstring injury suffered against Manchester City.

Fun times were had by all.

It’s not completely bad news, though. Salah, Milner, and van Dijk all trained on Thursday, so there’s that. All should be available tomorrow, although I remain worried about all three. Liverpool do have quite a few games coming up in the next few weeks, even if most aren’t against the quality of opposition faced prior to the last break.

So guessing tomorrow’s XI isn’t the easiest. There’s the obvious, guessing everyone who could be available to play in the usual formation. There’s the protection option, leaving at least one or two of the questionable players on the bench – Both Shaqiri and Lallana could, in theory, play in midfield; Fabinho seems due for a start; Sturridge might be in the best form of any front six Liverpool players. And there’s the curveball, something like 4-4-2 with both Sturridge and Firmino up top or 4-2-3-1 with Shaqiri in the hole.

As per usual, your guess is as good as mine. And as usual, my guess is usually what’s been the most familiar, rotation be damned. More important, obviously, is that the Liverpool attack that’s still got decent underlying statistics actually turns those statistics into honest to goodness goals.

Meanwhile, Huddersfield. Who, um, are not very good. They’re in 18th place, ahead of only Newcastle and Cardiff. They’re yet to win this season, with three draws in the league. They’re out of the League Cup after losing to Stoke. And they’ve scored just four goals through nine matches in all competitions. Three of those four came from defenders. Three of the four came from set plays – a corner and two throw-ins – with the fourth coming from a lofted cross.

And Huddersfield have some injuries of their own. Kongolo’s definitely absent, while Löwe, Mooy, Billing, Williams, Smith, and Sobhi are all questionable. But all those questionable seem capable of playing if needed. So let’s guess that they will. Something like Lössl; Smith, Zanka, Schindler, Löwe; Hogg, Mooy; Kachunga, Pritchard, van la Parra; Depoitre. 4-2-3-1 is Huddersfield’s most frequent formation, but it is worth noting that Huddersfield have played three at the back a couple of times this season, including a recent 0-2 loss to Tottenham. However, three at the back often goes poorly for Liverpool’s opponents.

Even considering injuries and annoyances, the international break seemingly came at a decent time. Liverpool remain winless in four. Liverpool still aren’t firing in attack, even if they're still more than competent in defense. Liverpool needed the breathing space. We needed the breathing space.

And now, Liverpool have a run of very winnable matches, starting at Huddersfield, against opponents they beat 3-0 in both meetings last season, against opponents who’ve yet to win this season. Then Red Star Belgrade. Then Cardiff. Then to be fair, away at Arsenal, but followed by Red Star, Fulham, and Watford.

Liverpool made it through the first fifth of the season adequately. It could have been better. But it’s usually been worse. We’re calling joint-top with 20 from 24 points adequate, after playing three of last season’s top five in the first eight games.

Now to put the pedal to the floor. Sorry, Huddersfield.

Liverpool v Manchester City 10.07.18

11:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a; CL) 04.10.18
3-0 Liverpool (h; CL) 04.04.18
4-3 Liverpool (h) 01.14.18
0-5 City (a) 09.27.17

Last matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Napoli (a); 1-1 Chelsea (a); 1-2 Chelsea (h)
City: 2-1 Hoffenheim (a); 2-0 Brighton (h); 3-0 Oxford (a)

Goal scorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 4; Salah 3; Firmino, Sturridge 2; Matip, Milner, Wijnaldum 1
City: Agüero 5; Sterling 4; Mahrez, B Silva, D Silva 2; Gundogan, Jesus, Laporte, Sane, Walker 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

Welp.

The narrative surrounding any Liverpool match often feels overwhelming and overwrought, but this’ll be even more so.

The champions against the contenders. The rebels against the evil empire. Is Liverpool ready to actually make a run at the title? This match will, of course, definitively tell us either way. Here, this is the season, right here. In the first week of October. Hold onto your butts.

So the last three games haven’t been great.

Loss, draw, loss. None impressive, and two of those with a full-strength side. The defense has been mostly impressively good, but the midfield’s unperformed – at least in regards to creativity – and the attack’s misfired. Does that mean changes tomorrow? Sturridge or Shaqiri or Fabinho starting? Maybe a 4-2-3-1, as against Southampton, even though Southampton and City are two very different opponents, a formation likely better able to create for the front three if the front three can’t create for themselves? Maybe 4-4-2, with both Firmino and Sturridge – or Firmino and Salah – up top?

Probably not. We know Liverpool’s preferred shape, we know Liverpool’s preferred players, even also knowing Liverpool’s increased strength in depth. That depth has manifested far more as options off the bench rather than rotation in starting XIs. At least guessing the midfield is a bit easier than usual. Keïta is supposedly available, but given how weird and frightening backs can be, I’d be surprised. More likely is Fabinho finally getting a run in the league.

Meanwhile, you may have heard that Manchester City are good. Draw with Wolves and Champions League loss to Lyon aside, they’ve been as brutal as ever. Most goals per game, shots per game, possession per game, and the highest pass accuracy in the league. Fewest shots allowed, lowest xG per shot, and joint-fewest goals conceded – along with Liverpool. Level on points with Liverpool, although ahead on goal difference having waxed both Huddersfield and Cardiff by five goals already this season.

Let’s go with Ederson; Walker, Kompany, Otamendi, Laporte; D Silva, Fernandinho, Gündogan; Sterling, Agüero, Sané. That seems the most familiar. But guessing City’s XI is never easy; it’s not as if City don’t have other options, whether in personnel or formation. There are Mahrez or Jesus in attack. Bernardo Silva in either midfield or attack. Both Mendy and de Bruyne could return from injury, almost certainly hosed down with horse placenta by some shady "doctor" during the week. 3-5-2 is possible if Mendy’s fit; 4-4-2 is possible with both Agüero and Jesus up front.

Last season’s matches with Manchester City were wild, exactly what blitzkrieg heavy metal football should be. Three of the four were wild in a good way, a 4-3 league win that was literally the perfect encapsulation of last season’s Liverpool and those two dramatic Champions League victories. The other match, as I suspect you remember, was wild in a very bad way. Manchester City, so dominant in the league, were beaten three out of four times by this Liverpool side.

It will be hard for Liverpool to replicate that. It is up to Liverpool to replicate that.

Liverpool at Chelsea 09.29.18

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Chelsea (h; League Cup) 09.26.18
0-1 Chelsea (a) 05.06.18
1-1 (h) 11.25.17
1-1 (h) 01.31.17

Last matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Chelsea (h); 3-0 Southampton (h); 3-2 PSG (h)
Chelsea: 2-1 Liverpool (a); 0-0 West Ham (a); 1-0 PAOK (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 4; Salah 3; Firmino 2; Matip, Milner, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 1
Chelsea: Hazard 5; Pedro 3; Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Morata, Willian 1

Referee: Andre Marriner (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Milner Wijnadum Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

So Wednesday wasn’t fun. But this ain’t gonna be Wednesday. Maybe for better, maybe for worse.

Unlike in the League Cup, we’re getting the Liverpool we know and love. At least in the starting XI. For the most part. Whether we get the play we know and love obviously remains to be seen.

The one worry is that Virgil van Dijk won’t have gotten over his rib injury, requiring either Matip or Lovren to keep their place, probably alongside Gomez. And I hope that doesn’t happen. That’s only a marginal slight on Matip or Lovren; they’re better than usually given credit for, even considering the seemingly inevitable once-per-game mistake, but they ain’t Virgil. The full-backs have made a huge improvement, especially considering their respective ages. Gomez is coming along nicely. Alisson’s gonna be great. But van Dijk is the centerpiece, touchstone, leader, etc of this defense.

The only other question is the usual three from four debate in midfield. I’ve left Henderson out in the above guess, as I think the movement and running of Milner and Keïta is crucial and Henderson’s been better is games against lesser opposition that’s pinned back and we’ve seen this trio more than any other, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by any combination.

Otherwise, you know this lineup. And it ain’t the lineup which lost on Wednesday.

Liverpool will be better, stronger, more coherent than they were in the League Cup, but so will Chelsea. To be fair, Chelsea made almost as many changes to their starting XI as Liverpool did in that meeting.

Tomorrow we’ll get Marcos Alonso, bombing forward from full-back with far more threat, on Chelsea's much more dangerous left flank, even if his replacement in the last match scored the equalizer. Jorginho, controlling play from deep midfield, the architect of what Sarri wants to do, pass pass pass away from and around Liverpool, allowing Chelsea to better control tenor and tempo, especially at home. Kanté, no longer the deepest midfielder, but energetic further forward in both pressing and breaking lines. Giroud, far more potent than Morata, especially against Liverpool, with six goals in his last seven matches against Liverpool, including the winner the last time these sides met in the league.

But most importantly, Eden Hazard will start. You saw the impact he had on Wednesday.

And you saw what Chelsea are without him. 0-0 at West Ham the last league match when West Ham focused solely on keeping him quiet. 1-0 to Liverpool, with the score line arguably unfair to the home side, until he came on. And it finished 1-2. Hazard delivered the set play leading to Barkley’s shot leading to the corner that Chelsea equalized on. Hazard scored an unbelievable winner, whomp whomp whomping Keïta and Moreno (especially Moreno) before beating Mignolet all ends in all directions.

I don’t much care for Eden Hazard.

So tomorrow’s XI is likely to be Kepa; Azpilicueta, Cahill, Luiz, Alonso; Kante, Jorginho, Kovacic; Willian, Giroud, Hazard. As on Wednesday, Pedro, Rudiger, and Loftus-Cheek are doubtful. Maybe we’ll get Christensen instead of Cahill, or Rudiger if available, or Fabregas instead of Kovacic in midfield.

So, yeah, Chelsea’s a threat. Even more so than on Wednesday, a match they won at Anfield. And this is at Stamford Bridge.

But still-unbeaten-in-competitions-that-matter Liverpool will be no pushovers. Two of the best sides in the league in match-week seven. Pressing and verticality against pressing and verticality. Hilariously good attackers, diligent and combative midfielders, wild full-backs, the two most expensive goalkeepers in the world, and defenses that range from “can be gotten” to “you ain’t getting” depending on who’s available for either side.

This is what the Premier League’s supposed to be about. Try to enjoy it. And look out.

Liverpool v Chelsea 09.26.18

2:45pm ET, live in the US on ESPN+

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Chelsea (a) 05.06.18
1-1 (h) 11.25.17
1-1 (h) 01.31.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 09.16.16

Last matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Southampton (h); 3-2 PSG (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a)
Chelsea: 0-0 West Ham (a); 1-0 PAOK (a); 4-1 Cardiff (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 4; Firmino, Salah 2; Milner, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 1
Chelsea: Hazard 5; Pedro 3; Willian 2; Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Morata 1

Referee: Kevin Friend (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Moreno
Milner Fabinho Keïta
Sturridge Solanke Shaqiri

It ain’t quite the battle of who could care less, but this is at best an amuse-bouche before the weekend.

The League Cup remains the League Cup. Liverpool’s squad is both better and deeper this season, more capable of contesting all four competitions, but this one remains a distant fourth on the list of priorities.

Normally, the tie being against Chelsea would make it more meaningful, if not more important, but that Liverpool subsequently play the same side in the league on Saturday means that no one’s going to want to tip their hands. And after Chelsea comes Napoli and Manchester City. So it seems we're back to the League Cup still being the League Cup.

That said, Klopp’s league cup lineups have often been somewhere between slightly stronger and much stronger than we’ve expected. But it’s hard to see that being the case tomorrow, especially since Liverpool have a surprising amount of actually good players who’ve hardly seen the pitch so far this season.

Guessing a brand new back five may be foolish, but at least one of Clyne or Moreno will come in at full-back, if not both. Matip will keep his place, and Lovren’s supposedly fully fit and ready to go. I’d vastly prefer Alisson stay in goal, but the obviously-out-of-favor Simon Mignolet’s definitely starting according to Klopp so *shrugs vehemently*.

The front six is as much a guessing game. We all would really like to see Fabinho finally start, while both Keïta and Milner were substitutes against Southampton. Firmino’s definitely not starting, and it’s not hard seeing both Mané and Salah left out as well. Maybe one keeps their place, alongside Sturridge and Shaqiri. Maybe it’s the above, with Sturridge ostensibly on the right, where he’s kinda sorta capable of playing. Maybe it’s the above players in a 4-4-2 diamond, with Sturridge and Solanke up front, Shaqiri as the most advanced midfielder, and Milner and Keïta pushing a bit wider than usual – something both are very much able to do.

It’s the League Cup. Who knows.

Meanwhile, Chelsea will almost certainly approach the match similarly. Wholesale changes. Something like Caballero; Zappacosta, Cahill, Christensen, Emerson; Fabregas, Ampadu, Barkley; Moses, Morata, Hudson-Odoi. Rudiger, Pedro, and Loftus-Cheek are probably absent, all recovering from respective injuries. There has been talk that Hazard will play, but I’d be surprised; he’s too important to Chelsea. Similar goes for players like Marcos Alonso, Kanté, Jorginho, and Willian, but honestly have no idea.

Chelsea have started the season well, unbeaten and having won all of their matches until Sunday, when they drew 0-0 at West Ham. Venue notwithstanding, that’s a West Ham side that Liverpool whomped last month. It’s a West Ham side that has won just two matches this season, at Wimbledon in the League Cup and at Everton nine days ago. Maybe these results against Chelsea and Everton are a sign that West Ham are coming together with a vastly different side and new manager. Or maybe it’s a sign that West Ham knew that if they just kept Hazard quiet, they’d have a good chance of getting something from the match. And they did, and then they did. Which might explain why there’s talk Hazard will play tomorrow.

Wholesale changes, including players who've featured far less, may make Chelsea less capable of Sarri-ball, but they will still be a compact, pressing, possession-dominating side. Which could upset a changed Liverpool XI or feed into Liverpool's compact, pressing, blitzkrieg-counter side. I'm honestly curious to see.

So, yeah, League Cup. Another chance to watch a fun Liverpool side, and a chance for players not featuring regularly to stake stronger claims. To see what the players and the side are capable of in situations like these. That’s what the League Cup is for. That's all the League Cup is for, at least at this stage of the competition.

Liverpool v Southampton 09.22.18

Liverpool v Southampton 09.22.18

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Gold

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (h) 02.11.18
3-0 Liverpool (a) 11.18.17
0-0 (h) 05.07.17
0-1 Southampton (h; League Cup) 01.25.17

Last matches:
Liverpool: 3-2 PSG (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a); 2-1 Leicester (a)
Leicester: 2-2 Brighton (h); 2-0 Palace (a); 1-0 Brighton (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 4; Firmino, Salah 2; Milner, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 1
Southampton: Ings 3; Højbjerg 2; Bertrand 1

Referee: Paul Tierney (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

Normal service has resumed. First, I am deeply appreciative of all who responded to this Twitter thread.

Second, I see I didn’t miss much. Just a couple of routine wins. Yawn.

So, yeah, Liverpool have been pretty impressive. A 2-1 win at Tottenham that wouldn’t have looked odd had it finished 3-0 instead, a fixture that finished 1-4 last season. 3-2 against PSG’s millions, which wouldn’t have looked odd had it finished 3-1 or 4-1. And yet that one almost finished 2-2, if not for late Firmino heroics. A match that almost certainly would’ve finished 2-2 last season, just as it did in Liverpool’s first Champions League group game in 2017-18.

There’s been some steel added to Liverpool’s rock ‘em, sock ‘em robot gloves so far this season. And Liverpool, aside from the opening day, are yet to truly rock or sock opponents as we know they’re capable of.

Liverpool have won six games on the spin and Liverpool have still been nowhere near their best. That bodes well.

As per usual, I doubt there will be many line-up changes. The back five’s set. Firmino should come back in for Sturridge. There will probably be one change in midfield: Keïta will return, but whether it’s for Wijnaldum or Henderson or Milner is little more than a guess. Maybe Salah or Mané get a game off, but I suspect those changes and more will come midweek.

Meanwhile, Southampton will play 4-4-2. And, thankfully, Southampton’s best player won’t be available. Danny Ings; you may have heard of him. Ineligible due to the terms of his loan. See, there is actually a benefit to loan-now, sell-next-season.

Otherwise, Southampton have been very Southampton and very Mark Hughes. Only a little bit of turnover from last season, adding Ings up front because goals were last season's biggest issue, Elyounoussi in place of Tadic, Vestergaard as van Dijk’s replacement, and Gunn as back-up keeper, at least for now. Højbjerg and Lemina have cemented their midfield places ahead of Romeu, Davis, and Ward-Prowse. And, like last season, Southampton are sometimes competent and sometime lost.

Last week’s 2-2 against Brighton is a perfect example. They were, to be blunt, dominant for the first two-thirds of the match, even more than Liverpool were against the same side at Anfield. A first-half goal, then a penalty in the 65th minute. 2-0, 25 minutes to go, game over. Or not. Foot off the gas, Brighton immediately pull one back, Southampton fall apart, changes don’t help, Brighton win and score an injury time penalty to level matters. Incidentally, Brighton’s first goal came from a set play, the second came from a penalty following a set play. Three of Liverpool's 11 league goals this season have come from set plays.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Which is a microcosm of Southampton's season so far. A dreary 0-0 opener against Burnley – who’ve yet to win in the league and are already out of the EL – then 2-1 losses against Everton and Leicester, but then wins over Brighton (in the League Cup) and Palace, but then that last good then bad draw with Brighton.

To be fair, Southampton have given Liverpool issues recently. 2016-17 is stronger in the memory, four matches without for Liverpool, but that was under a different Southampton manager and against a different Liverpool. Last season was 3-0 and 2-0, but the 2-0 was a lot closer than the scoreline suggests. An early Liverpool goal, but then four Southampton shots on-target, including one clear-cut chance. It wouldn't have surprised had Southampton scored and had Southampton scored it's potentially a different game. But Karius saved all four, then a second Liverpool goal came just before halftime, then the second half was a formality.

So, just so you know, Southampton can actually attack at times.

Southampton’s XI is pretty well set, especially without Ings. McCarthy; Cedric, Vestergaard, Hoedt, Bertrand; Elyounoussi, Lemina, Højbjerg, Redmond; Austin, Long. Maybe Gabbiadini instead of Austin; Ward-Prowse instead of Elyounoussi.

4-4-2. Potentially dangerous, potentially secure. Potentially conceding four in an hour.

This is the game where past Liverpools – at least of recent vintage – would have failed. A deserved win at Tottenham, a ground and fixture where Liverpool were humbled last season. An exhilarating win over Paris St-Germain. Two fixtures against Chelsea, then Napoli, then Manchester City to come in the next two weeks.

This is the odd match out. This is the one that Liverpool can’t underestimate, because there’s no underestimating the others. This is the one that Liverpool can’t look past, the only one with the potential for looking past.

This is the one where Liverpool need to put lesser opposition to the sword they deserve.

Liverpool at Leicester 09.01.18

7:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 12.30.17
3-2 Liverpool (a) 09.23.17
0-2 Leicester (a; League Cup) 09.19.17
1-3 Leicester (a) 02.27.17

Last matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Brighton (h); 2-0 Crystal Palace (a); 4-0 West Ham (h)
Leicester: 4-0 Fleetwood (h); 2-1 Southampton (a); 2-0 Wolves (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 3; Salah 2; Milner, Sturridge 1
Leicester: Gray, Maguire, Maddison, Vardy 1

Referee: Paul Tierney (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

After three consecutive matches with the same XI, we've been promised changes. And I've little idea what they'll be. Or if there will really be that many.

Back five should be the same. Most importantly, you don't want to mess with what's been Liverpool's best unit so far in this short season. But also, Lovren's still injured, Gomez has played well, neither Alisson nor van Dijk are coming out. Maybe one of the full-backs is replaced; both have defended well, as the team's defended well, but neither's been at their best in attack – especially Alexander-Arnold.

You'd expect Henderson would come into midfield, but I said that prior to the last match. It could be for any of the three. We've got 32-year-old Milner already racking up the minutes, the Wijnaldum Away From Home axiom, and Keïta nowhere near his best against Brighton. Once again, it's still probably too soon for Fabinho, although he may finally make the bench.

And then there's that front three. Firmino, left out of the squad in just two of last season's 56 matches; Salah only missing a couple with a minor injury; and Mané, almost ever-present after last season's early hamstring injury and suspension. They were almost always available last season, and almost always played when available. And they were the main reason why Liverpool accomplished what Liverpool accomplished.

But this season might be different. There's at least more depth, with a frighteningly resurgent (for now) Sturridge as well as Xherdan Shaqiri, not to mention maybe Adam Lallana is a thing that exists. You'd think the former two will get starts, and probably sooner rather than later. You'd think Liverpool could play 4-4-2 with both Firmino and Sturridge up front, or 4-2-3-1 with Shaqiri in the hole behind that front three. Maybe we'll see it tomorrow.

But I dunno. And we won't know until we get examples of how Klopp's gonna rotate and what other formations are possible. Until then, it's a guessing game, and it remains easier to guess what we've seen before. Not to mention that this is the last match before the first annoying international break of the season, so it's not as if Liverpool necessarily need to rest players for what's to come. Not for a couple of weeks, at least.

Meanwhile, Leicester. Perpetually a problem. Puel's done well in settling the side after an unsurprising fall back to earth following that unlikely league title, a more proactive and pressing side than that under Rainieri. More potent full-backs, more of a 4-2-3-1 formation. Still the proclivity for counter-attacks and set plays. Still Gray's pace and Albrighton's dead balls and Harry Maguire's massive head and two defensive destroying midfielders.

But Leicester will be without Jamie Vardy, scorer of seven goals in eight games against Liverpool. Not that Kelechi Iheanacho – who will absolutely benefit from increased playing time; he's still only 21 – is that much of a downgrade.

Tomorrow's XI seems likely to be Schmeichel; Ricardo, Morgan, Maguire, Chilwell; Ndidi, Mendy; Albrighton, Maddison, Gray; Iheanacho. Nearly the same as at Southampton last week. Ricardo Pereira played on the right wing at Southampton, with Amartey at full-back, but I'd expect Pereira to return to his more familiar position tomorrow. Maybe Jonny Evans starts instead of Wes Morgan. Maybe Adrien Silva comes in for one of the two midfielders, or – less likely – Maddison for a more solid midfield.

As with the last three matches, this is a fixture that Liverpool won last season. For all the good and promising we've seen so far, and all the room for further improvement, and all the delight at the three wins from three start, we're solely on pace with last season's comparable fixtures.

At the same time, Liverpool haven't won their first four league matches since 1990-91, before the formation of the Premier League.

It's only the fourth match of a 38-game campaign, but we're already at the point where every one feels important, more important than the last. Strap in for 35 more of these, and that's only one of the four competitions Liverpool are in this season.

Liverpool v Brighton 08.25.18

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
4-0 Liverpool (h) 05.13.18
5-1 Liverpool (a) 12.02.17
6-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 02.19.12
1-2 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 10.21.11

Last matches:
Liverpool: 2-0 Crystal Palace (a); 4-0 West Ham (h)
Brighton: 3-2 United (h); 0-2 Watford (a)

Referee: Chris Kavanagh (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

There might be changes?

It's seemingly harsh to drop anyone from the XI which has won the last two matches. You'd expect Henderson to return to the line-up sooner rather than later, but both Wijnaldum and Milner have been excellent. Matip's fit, Lovren won't be for another few weeks, but Gomez has similarly impressed. Firmino hasn't had his best two games, but remains an archetypal player for this system. Fabinho's going to be bedded in very slow, as Robertson was, as Oxlade-Chamberlain was. It went alright in both those cases.

Otherwise, you've seen this side, you know this side.

So let's guess Henderson comes in for Wijnaldum, because *throws hands up, stares adoringly at picture of James Milner*. Maybe Sturridge or Shaqiri for Firmino, who's seemingly had the most World-Cup-hangover of any Liverpool player who went to the World Cup (*glares at Alexander-Arnold's crossing, then remembers Alexander-Arnold's defending*), with Salah very much capable of playing as the central striker if Shaqiri's on and Sturridge very much a central striker.

But, as per usual, I'm more inclined to guess the same as before and hope that Liverpool are capable of the same as before.

As with Liverpool, this'll probably be basically the same XI as in Brighton's last match, a delightful 3-2 win over Manchester United. Ryan; Montoya, Duffy, Balogun, Bong; Knockaert, Stephens, Pröpper, March; Groß; Murray. Lewis Dunk, with two own goals in three matches against Liverpool, was injured in that match and replaced by summer signing Balogun, while Izquierdo and Bruno are also out.

Maybe Hughton decides it's time to bed in some more new players; Brighton had a very busy summer, after all. Ten new players signed during the offseason, highlighted by Montoya, who's already made the right-back position his own in Bruno's absence; Bernardo, who may come in for Bong; Yves Bissouma in central midfield; and club-record signing Alireza Jahanbakhsh, an incredibly dangerous right-winger.

But Solly March and Anthony Knockaert were integral players in Brighton's side last season and so far in this. As have been Stephens and Pröpper in midfield. Knockaert can play in Pascal Groß's position, but Pascal Groß is great, one of the most creative players in the Premier League, especially when you consider who he's playing for.

Brighton's last match against United showed what they're capable of. United's third season Mourinho syndrome not withstanding, Brighton were great. They stymied United. They took the game to United, at least in the first half. They pressed and dispossessed United and immediately went, using both width and pace up the flanks and long balls toward Glenn Murray.

They've elements of what West Ham could well be capable of if they can put all those new players and new manager together, they've elements of what Crystal Palace threatened but failed to do to Liverpool last week.

That said, Brighton have a terrible record away from home. Their opening day match was a disappointment, a 2-0 defeat at Watford. They won just two of 19 away matches in the league last season, against Swansea and West Ham, in late October and early November.

Brighton have a terrible record against Liverpool, with four-goal defeats in both fixtures last season.

Chris Hughton has a terrible record against Liverpool, with four-goal defeats in all five of his matches as a Premier League manager.

Past is no precedent, but this is Liverpool's match to win. As in weeks one and two, it's up to Liverpool to do what Liverpool needs to. What Liverpool are supposed to. What Liverpool are capable of if they're to achieve this season's goals.

Liverpool at Crystal Palace 08.20.18

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.31.18
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.19.17
1-2 Palace (h) 04.23.17
4-2 Liverpool (h) 10.29.16

Last match:
Liverpool: 4-0 West Ham (h)
Palace: 2-0 Fulham (a)

Referee: Michael Oliver (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

This will be a far tougher test than last week.

Liverpool had to work for both narrow victories last season – a 1-0 slog and 2-1 comeback. In earlier seasons, Palace punished Liverpool at least once a season.

Palace have players who've punished Liverpool in the past, Palace have players capable of punishing Liverpool now. I doubt Christian Benteke goes through last season's horror finishing again in this. Hennessey has stood on his head in previous meetings, making multiple saves he'd no right to make. And Wilfred Zaha and Schlupp down Liverpool's left will ask far more of Alexander-Arnold and Gomez than West Ham did, especially Zaha, who remains one of the best players in the league outside the top six.

Palace were far better than their league place last season suggests, and they finished 11th, firmly mid-table without the threat of relegation for the final few months. If not for a ghastly, unlucky first few months which saw Frank de Boer fired, they'd have finished a few places higher.

Palace are the type of side that's troubled Liverpool in the past – capable of defending deep and solid then counter-attacking at pace, both up the wings and long to Benteke. Set plays toward Benteke and the central defenders, free kicks from Milivojevic. It's a very Roy Hodgson side. And Roy Hodgson loves doing things to Liverpool, whether as opposition manager or Liverpool manager.

Both sides should line up as they did last week. Matip's back in training, but Gomez seems likely to keep his place. There's a reasonable chance that Henderson comes in for either Milner or Wijnaldum, but I'm not sure which. It's still too soon for Fabinho. Otherwise, this Liverpool side's already basically formed and – aside from the center-backs – fully fit.

As is Crystal Palace. Maybe summer-signing Kouyate comes in for McArthur, but otherwise, they are what they are. 4-4-2. The XI which beat upstart Fulham a week ago should be the XI tomorrow. Hennessey; Wan-Bissaka, Tomkins, Sakho, van Aanholt; Townsend, Milivojevic, McArthur, Schlupp; Benteke, Zaha.

Zaha and Benteke as the focal points. Diligent destroyers in midfield, even if that underrates Milivojevic. Surprisingly competent at the back – because that's what Hodgson does – especially with Wan-Bissaka's improvement; like Alexander-Arnold, a young academy graduate full-back whose play belies his years. The other summer additions aren't likely to start: it's too soon for Max Meyer, Hennessey's performance should see him stay ahead of Vincente Guaita, and Jordan Ayew's more for attacking depth than the first XI.

There are ways for Palace to win this, or at least snatch a draw. This might well be Liverpool's toughest fixture outside the top six and Everton.

But if the last season's proven anything, it's that we shouldn't worry about the opposition. We should worry about what Liverpool do to that opposition. And it's usually a lot. Liverpool are still Liverpool. Liverpool still have that defense, midfield, and – most importantly – that front three. No matter that it's the second match of the season, and a surprisingly difficult one. If Liverpool play to their potential, Liverpool can beat almost anyone.

Both sides have scored in every meeting at Selhurst Park since Palace came back into the Premier League in 2013-14. Six matches since, finishing 3-3, 1-3, 2-1, 2-1, 4-2, and 2-1. There are goals in this fixture, for each team.

I like matches with goals. Because Liverpool are usually better than the opposition at getting goals.

Liverpool v West Ham 08.12.18

8:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
4-1 Liverpool (h) 02.24.18
4-1 Liverpool (a) 11.04.17
4-0 Liverpool (a) 05.14.17
2-2 (h) 12.11.16

Last three preseason matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Torino (h); 5-0 Napoli (n); 4-1 Manchester Utd (n)
West Ham: 1-0 Angers (n); 1-1 Mainz [7-6 pens] (n); 2-1 Ipswich (a)

Referee: Anthony Taylor (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Clyne Gomez van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Keïta
Salah Firmino Mané

Everyone's optimistic. And rightfully so. And now we get to see how much is justified.

Well, kinda.

The first match doesn't define a season, but it can define some of it. 3-3 at Watford last season, a warning about conceding from set plays issues and conceding late goals issues which would haunt Liverpool off and on all season, at least decreasing as the season went on. 4-3 at Arsenal in 2016-17, a marker set against Liverpool's top four rivals – which they'd go unbeaten against – and a prediction of some of the wild score lines we'd see until that winter of our discontent.

This season starts against West Ham, a team Liverpool have scored four against in each of the last three meetings. This season starts at Anfield, for the first time since 2014-15 (don't look up how that season went).

It won't be full-strength Liverpool, but it won't be far off, despite World Cup exertions. Fabinho and Lovren are injured, and the latter wouldn't be included anyway because of his late return. Henderson will seemingly play despite returning around the same time as Lovren, but we could get Milner in that role instead. Clyne, with a full preseason, will probably be preferred to Alexander-Arnold, but it's close. Gomez is the fittest of the non-van Dijk center-backs, which is our first "oh shit, injuries" worry for the season. Maybe we get a Shaqiri or Sturridge curveball, but I doubt it.

But we'll get that front three, from the opening whistle of the season. We'll get Naby Keïta. We'll get Alisson Becker. We'll get a lot of the very good Liverpool players which led to the last very good season. It's up to them to both repeat and improve upon it.

And we won't get the same West Ham that Liverpool stomped in the last three meetings. A new manager in Manuel Pellegrini. A ton of new signings: Felipe Anderson, Issa Diop, Andriy Yarmolenko, Jack Wilshere, Lukasz Fabianski, Carlos Sanchez, Lucas Perez, Ryan Fredericks, Fabian Balbuena.

It's probably a good time to play West Ham, before this side settles. I expect they'll be a lot better this year than last. There's always a risk that many new faces won't coalesce, but there are some good players in there, loads better than the season before. And Pellegrini's also an obvious upgrade, an experienced manager who both knows how to balance a large squad and play to that side's strengths.

It also makes West Ham's XI near-impossible to guess. Let's go with Fabianski; Fredericks, Diop, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Wilshere, Noble; Felipe Anderson, Antonio, Arnautovic; Chicharito – basically the side from the final preseason match. Carroll (surprise!), Lanzini, Reid, and Fernandes are all out through injury. West Ham shouldn't sit too deep or press too hard or attack solely via countering. I expect we'll get a little of everything as this side figures itself out.

Liverpool should do Liverpool. That usually works out well.

It's time. It's finally time. It feels like we've been waiting forever since the Champions League final. But it also feels like the World Cup just ended.

The dichotomy of watching Liverpool. The exhilaration and excitement. The utter terror.

Deep breaths. We go again.

Liverpool v Real Madrid 05.26.18

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox

CL results:
Liverpool: 2-4 Roma (a); 5-2 Roma (h); 2-1 City (a); 3-0 City (h); 0-0 Porto (h); 5-0 Porto (a); 7-0 Spartak (h); 3-3 Sevilla (a); 3-0 Maribor (h); 7-0 Maribor (a); 1-1 Spartak (a); 2-2 Sevilla (h); 4-2 Hoffenheim (h); 2-1 Hoffenheim (a)
Real: 2-2 Bayern (h); 2-1 Bayern (a); 1-3 Juventus (h); 3-0 Juventus (a); 2-1 PSG (a); 3-1 PSG (h); 3-2 Dortmund (h); 6-0 APOEL (a); 1-3 Tottenham (a); 1-1 Tottenham (h); 3-1 Dortmund (a); 3-0 APOEL (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-0 Brighton (h); 0-1 Chelsea (a); 2-4 Roma (a)
Real: 2-2 Villarreal (a); 6-0 Celta Vigo (h); 2-3 Sevilla (a)


Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Firmino, Salah 11; Mané 9; Coutinho 5; Can 3; Alexander-Arnold, Oxlade-Chamberlain 2; Sturridge, Wijnaldum 1
Real: Ronaldo 15; Benzema 4; Marcelo 3; Asensio, Bale, Casemiro, Mayoral, Modric, Nacho, Ramos, Vazquez 1


Referee: Milorad Mažić (SRB)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Trent A-A Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

It's finally here. Gulp.

We know Liverpool's XI. It's been the same for a while now, both on form and fitness. Lallana and even Can could be available off the bench, which hey that helps, but they won't be in the XI. Liverpool's gonna dance with what brung them.

We mostly know Real Madrid's. My guess is Navas; Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo; Modric, Casemiro, Kroos; Isco; Ronaldo, Bale. The one question is Bale or Benzema. Maybe there's a chance Real Madrid revert to 4-3-3, dropping one of the midfielders to restore the BBC, but it's been 4-Diamond-2 more often than not. And while Benzema's more established, and has played more, I guess I'm more afraid of what Bale's pace can do.

But either way, and more importantly, we know what Real Madrid are capable of. Cristiano Ronaldo remains the best pure goal-scorer in the world. Benzema, Bale, or both ain't bad either. That midfield is *gulps, tugs collar* a blend of creativity, dynamism, and steel. Marcelo is one of the world's best playmakers from left-damn-fullback. Sergio Ramos just does things in the biggest matches on the biggest stage, at both ends of the pitch.

All that pace and that scoring and that creativity and that individual brilliance and that history against Liverpool has kept me up at night for at least a week now.

Real Madrid have won the last two Champions Leagues. Three of the last four. They won the league last season, but finished third – 17 points behind Barcelona – in this one. It's been an unstoppable parade to the European Cup, no matter their form in other competitions. Cosmically ordained. This is their competition.

But we also know what Liverpool are capable of. Especially that front three. As Porto, City, and Roma have found out in this competition, let alone what Salah, Mané, and Firmino have done in the league. But it's been a team effort in Europe. Liverpool's best performances have seen the midfielders midfield, the defenders defend, and the full-backs do a bit of everything. When Liverpool don't get that from everywhere, you get Roma and City's almost-comebacks, both legs against Sevilla, etc, no matter what brilliance that front three conjures.

In theory, Liverpool match up as well with Real Madrid as Real Madrid match up with Liverpool. The players to press Madrid into turnovers and create good chances, as both Bayern Munich and Juventus did in previous rounds, but with the players to potentially convert the chances that Bayern and Juventus didn't. A midfield that can swarm diminutive players into relative silence when at their best and on full rest. And a defense that actually can increasingly defend, even if still prone to errors then collapses.

And this is also Liverpool's competition. Yes, this will be against the team that's won it more than any other, but we've won it five times. Liverpool winning this big, lovely trophy has been cosmically ordained before as well. We all remember Istanbul. We all have felt like this felt in 2004-05.

It's the Champions League final, in Jürgen Klopp's third season. Before this side's even been fully built. Having won their group despite *issues*, having decisively beaten the Portuguese league winners and the Premier League winners, having narrowly got past Serie A's third-best side despite taking 5-0 and 6-1 leads.

It's been a hell of a ride. Up and down and down and up and up and down and up. And it's not over yet.

Allez allez allez.

Liverpool v Brighton 05.13.18

10am ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
5-1 Liverpool (a) 12.02.17
6-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 02.19.12
1-2 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 10.21.11
3-2 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 01.03.91

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Chelsea (a); 2-4 Roma (a); 0-0 Stoke (h); 5-2 Roma (h)
Brighton: 1-3 City (a); 1-0 United (h); 0-0 Burnley (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 31; Firmino 15; Mané 10; Coutinho 7; Can, Oxlade-Chamberlain 3; Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Henderson, Ings, Klavan, Lovren, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Brighton: Murray 12; Groß 7; Izquierdo 5; Knockaert 3; Hemed 2; Dunk, Locadia, March, Ulloa 1

Referee: Kevin Friend (LFCHistory) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Trent A-A Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Ings

Still stumbling face-first toward the finish. We're on big NBC in the USA tomorrow because this is the match that decides the top four. If Liverpool lose, Liverpool probably won't finish in the Champions League places, then needing Chelsea to also drop points at Newcastle.

But Liverpool also just need a draw. Because Chelsea dropped points in their last match, at home to Huddersfield just three days after beating Liverpool. At least we're both stumbling face-first toward the finish.

Just be good enough, Liverpool.

You'd think a week's respite would be a good thing. And it probably has been! Absolutely everyone needed the recovery time. But rather than "okay, folks are getting better," we're getting less enjoyable injury news, with Sadio Mané now struggling with a problem picked up in the last match.

So. Yikes. I don't need to remind anyone how Liverpool have looked when you remove one of the fantastic front three.

Otherwise, the line-up writes itself. As per usual. Lallana should at least make the bench, which means we can almost pretend at some attacking depth. But with a week since the last match and almost two before the Champions League final, I doubt we'll see any defensive rotation. There are no other midfielders to rotate. You want to keep the front three as front three as possible.

Maybe we get Woodburn instead of Ings. Or Solanke. Or maybe it'll be 4-4-2 or 3-5-2. It's not as if Liverpool aren't used to duct-taping a line-up together to face Brighton. The reverse fixture saw Liverpool go 3-4-3 without most of the fit central defenders, with both Emre Can and Wijnaldum used at center-back. And Liverpool, somehow, still won 5-1, even if lucky to do so by that margin.

I wouldn't say no to 5-1 tomorrow. It ain't gonna be that easy though. Not with the form Liverpool have been in, at least in the league.

With a win, Brighton could finish as high as tenth, currently a point behind Watford, Bournemouth, Palace, and Newcastle. With a loss, they'd finish no lower than 15th. They're safe, six points clear of what will probably be the relegation zone mark, which every single Brighton player, coach, employee, and supporter would've taken before the season started.

It's not 'nothing to play for,' but Brighton's destiny is done. All but safe for a few weeks now, confirmed safe with a win at Manchester United last week. And Brighton have been diligent over the last month in securing safety. There looked a potentially destabilizing loss, 3-2 at their peers in Crystal Palace, but three draws in April were just about enough. 1-1 v Huddersfield, fine. 0-0 at Burnley, good enough. 1-1 v Tottenham, fairly impressive, and a little helpful for Liverpool.

And then that United match. Brighton, the better side before taking the lead, with De Gea required to stop the usual few efforts. United, blunt and unthreatening without both Lukaku and Alexis, not even requiring any heroics from Mat Ryan.

That marked United's third away loss in three matches against the promoted sides. Liverpool's home record against the same sides is fine, 2-0 over Newcastle and 3-0 over Huddersfield, nothing fancy but comfortable and comprehensive. Liverpool's home record is fine in general – too many draws, which is the story of the campaign – but also the only side in the division unbeaten, with only United conceding fewer goals.

The last month has shown Brighton's stinginess, with just two goals conceded in the four matches which will keep them division. But there's also the three conceded at Palace, in a match where Brighton needed to go for it. There's also the three conceded at Manchester City three days ago. There's also the fact that Brighton have the second-worst away record in the division, with two wins (last week's at United and 1-0 at Swansea way back in November), five draws, and 11 losses.

Tomorrow's side will probably be very similar to that against City. The only likely change is Glenn Murray for Leonardo Ulloa up front. Ryan; Bruno, Duffy, Dunk, Bong; Knockaert, Stephans, Propper, Izquierdo; Groß, Murray. Ryan has been one of the best keepers in the league this season. Murray was quite good when these sides last spoke. Groß scored those crucial goals against both United and Tottenham.

So here we are. After all the drama of the last month. All the drama of the season in full. Liverpool just need a draw to secure a place in next season's Champions League.

Chris Hughton's never beaten Liverpool. Never drawn with Liverpool. Never prevented Liverpool from scoring five goals: 5-2, 5-1, and 5-0 losses while in charge of Norwich, and a 5-1 loss at Brighton a few months ago.

Liverpool know what they need to do. What they need to focus on before attention turns to Kiev. Stumble all you want, as long as you finish as you need to finish.

Liverpool at Chelsea 05.06.18

11:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 11.25.17
1-1 (h) 01.31.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 09.16.16
1-1 (h) 05.11.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-4 Roma (a); 0-0 Stoke (h); 5-2 Roma (h)
Chelsea: 1-0 Swansea (a); 2-0 Southampton (h); 2-1 Burnley (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 31; Firmino 15; Mané 10; Coutinho 7; Can, Oxlade-Chamberlain 3; Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Henderson, Ings, Klavan, Lovren, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Chelsea: Hazard 12; Morata 11; Alonso, Willian 6; Pedro 4; Moses 3; Azpilicueta, Bakayoko, Batshuayi, Fabregas, Giroud, Rudiger 2; Drinkwater, Kanté, Luiz, Zappacosta 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor (LFCHistory) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

So it's been a fairly uneventful week. Just another wild-ass Champions League semi-final where Liverpool conceded four and won the tie and secured a spot in the final in three weeks' time. Its first Champions League final in 11 years. A match that took years off our lives, and probably the players' lives.

And after a match like that in Rome, you'd think Liverpool would rotate its side. You'd almost certainly be wrong.

Liverpool could really use a result here. A win makes top four certain. A point makes it all but certain. Chelsea have been good lately, Chelsea always give Liverpool a difficult match. But more importantly, Liverpool don't really have rotation options.

Maybe Lallana and Can make it back before the end of the season. But they ain't back yet. Matip and Oxlade-Chamberlain are assuredly out for the final three games. Gomez is out too, at least for one more week. Liverpool have no other fit central midfielders, and Liverpool have seen a massive drop-off when they've rotated the back four or, more importantly, the front three.

So, really, the only changes I can see is Clyne or Moreno coming in at full-back. And I wouldn't be surprised if neither happen. Had Liverpool already secured top four, maybe we get something crazy, maybe we get 4-4-2 or three-at-the-back or Solanke or Ings or Woodburn, etc. But since they haven't we probably won't. We probably shouldn't.

Gotta get this.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are unbeaten in their last five matches, not only making the top four race a lot closer than is comfortable, but they're also into the FA Cup final for the second season in a row. They're peaking at the right-ish time, after a fairly disappointing campaign. But that's been Chelsea of in recent years. Win the league. Then get weird. Have players disappoint, have problems with the manager. Lather, rinse, repeat.

But they're still Chelsea. They're still a pain in the rear. It's not going to be a high-line 3-4-3, which Liverpool often feast upon, but a disciplined, well-positioned, fairly deep defense reliant on the wing-backs, Willian, Hazard, and either Giroud or Morata to counter. Something like Courtois; Azpilicueta, Cahill, Rutiger; Moses, Kanté, Fabregas, Alonso; Willian, Hazard; Giroud. And they're fairly healthy, especially considering both the time of the season; David Luiz the only player missing through injury.

This fixture's almost always seen goals, but not a ton of them; both teams have scored in eight of the last nine meetings. But either side has scored more than once in just three of those nine, with five ending in 1-1 draws, including three of Klopp's five meetings.

I'd be more than happy with a 1-1 draw tomorrow, a result that all but ensures Liverpool will be in next season's Champions League. But we've also seen what happens when Liverpool play for a draw, play for damage control. You saw it on Wednesday, kind of. This team only knows how to play one way. Or, better put, this team only knows how to succeed one way. Score goals. Attack. Do Liverpool.

Go get this.

Liverpool at AS Roma 05.02.18

Liverpool lead 5-2 on aggregate

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

CL results:
Liverpool: 5-2 Roma (h); 2-1 City (a); 3-0 City (h); 0-0 Porto (h); 5-0 Porto (a); 7-0 Spartak (h); 3-3 Sevilla (a); 3-0 Maribor (h); 7-0 Maribor (a); 1-1 Spartak (a); 2-2 Sevilla (h); 4-2 Hoffenheim (h); 2-1 Hoffenheim (a)
Roma: 2-5 Liverpool (a); 3-0 Barcelona (h); 1-4 Barcelona (a); 1-0 Shakhtar (h); 1-2 Shakhtar (a); 1-0 Qarabag (h); 0-2 Atletico (a); 3-0 Chelsea (h); 3-3 Chelsea (a); 2-1 Qarabag (a); 0-0 Atletico (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Stoke (h); 5-2 Roma (a); 2-2 West Brom (a)
Roma: 4-1 Chievo (h); 2-5 Liverpool (a); 3-0 SPAL (a)


Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Firmino, Salah 11; Mané 8; Coutinho 5; Can 3; Alexander-Arnold, Oxlade-Chamberlain 2; Sturridge 1
Roma: Dzeko 7; Perotti 3; El Shaarawy, Manolas 2; de Rossi, Kolarov, Ünder 1


Referee: Damir Skomina (SVN)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Trent A-A Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

Do the Champions League, just one more time. Okay, two more times.

This has been Liverpool's competition so far this season. Unbeaten. Top scorers. Liverpool weren't good in league matches prior to the first leg in Porto, both legs against City, and the last match against Roma. And they they went out and did the damned thing in Europe. As they did in the group stage against every side save Sevilla.

Liverpool may be down to three fit central midfielders, at best. Liverpool are still missing Can, Matip, and Oxlade-Chamberlain; Gomez hasn't traveled; and both Henderson and Alexander-Arnold are carrying knocks. Lallana's with the squad, but won't be available, and so are a bunch of kids who may well be needed: Woodburn, Jones, Masterson, Camacho.

But Liverpool can still do the damned thing. This is their competition. And they've got that front three.

So, yeah, Roma are good at home. They're not great in the league, with 11 wins, one draw, and six losses, but are great in the Champions League, where they're yet to concede. Four wins and a 0-0 draw with Atletico. They've scored three goals at home in six league matches and two European matches, most notably in the last round of the Champions League, that 3-0 win over Barcelona after losing the first leg 1-4. Where a late away goal gave them hope. Gulps, tugs collar, etc. The match that gives them confidence that they can do the same tomorrow. But also the match that gave them confidence that they could play three at the back against Liverpool as well.

I find it hard to believe that di Francesco will play anything other than 4-3-3 this time out.

Alisson; Florenzi, Fazio, Manolas, Kolarov; Gonalons, de Rossi, Nainggolan; Schick, Dzeko, Perotti. Maybe Ünder or El Shaarawy instead of Schick or Perotti. Gonalons or Pellegrini could replace the injured Strootman, or Perotti could play deeper with one of the other aforementioned attackers coming in. Perotti's questionable with injury as well, but should be available.

Roma simply has to go for it, early and often. Throw caution to the wind, etc. etc. And while Roma scored their opener against Barcelona in the 6th minute, they didn't get the second and third until the 58th (a penalty) and 82nd minutes. Cliche though this may be, it will be a 90-minute match. It won't be won by an early goal, for either side.

But if any side is going to score in Rome, it's this Liverpool side. Unbeaten in Europe this season, either home or away. Having scored in every match except a dead rubber v Porto, because Liverpool actually maintained their five-goal lead throughout that tie. They've scored at least three goals in eight of 13 Champions League matches, both home and away.

And while Roma seemingly have to play 4-3-3 this time, it'll still be a high line. There will still be waves of players going forward. Roma will need Kolarov and Florenzi to create from full-back. And there will be space for Liverpool to attack.

The last round against Manchester City, while terrifying at the time, seems helpful in retrospect. Liverpool had a three-goal lead. Liverpool conceded early. Liverpool looked likely to concede again. But Liverpool kept doing Liverpool, even if lucky to do so. And then Liverpool scored. And then Liverpool scored again.

This Liverpool side succeeds by scoring. Weather any early storm by any means necessary, but also immediately look to do you. Counter at pace, as often as possible. Press the opposition whenever possible, as high up the pitch as possible. Then get the ball to that front three. Get a goal, then get another. And don't stop until you're in the final.

Liverpool v Stoke 04.28.18

7:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 11.29.17
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.08.17
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.27.16
4-1 Liverpool (h) 04.10.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-2 Roma (h); 2-2 West Brom (a); 3-0 Bournemouth (h)
Stoke: 1-1 Burnley (h); 1-1 West Ham (a); 1-2 Tottenham (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 31; Firmino 15; Mané 10; Coutinho 7; Can, Oxlade-Chamberlain 3; Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Henderson, Ings, Klavan, Lovren, Matip, Wijnaldum 1
Stoke: Shaqiri 7; Diouf 6; Choupo-Moting 5; Crouch 4; Allen, Sobhi 2; Fletcher, Jese, Ndiaye, Shawcross, Zouma 1

Referee: Andre Marriner (LFCHistory) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Lovren van Dijk Robertson
Wijnaldum Henderson Milner
Salah Ings Firmino

I don't think there will be as many changes as you think there will be.

Let's assume Mané is rested after vague-but-worrying "he's injured!" nonsense taking over the internet yesterday. Probably Clyne for Alexander-Arnold as well. Maybe Moreno for Robertson and/or Klavan for Lovren, although I'd be a bit concerned about deploying the same back four as at West Brom. But otherwise, this should be a full-strength team. Yes, even with Roma on Wednesday.

Liverpool still need probably four more points from the final three games. Here are three of them. And it's not as if we're overflowing with options. Those are the three midfielders. You'd prefer none of the front three miss out given how reliant Liverpool are on them.

Maybe we get 4-4-2. That'd help with resting a central midfielder, that'd be a more comfortable formation for both Firmino and Ings (or Salah and Ings). But then there's the question of who plays on the flanks. Salah on the right, but either in a deeper role or with the full-back needing to sit deeper? And on the left – Moreno, Woodburn, Milner?

We haven't seen Klopp switch formations – at least the starting formation – for a few months now. Since the winter. Since around the time these sides last spoke. When, incidentally, Liverpool played 4-4-2. When, incidentally, Liverpool also had Oxlade-Chamberlain, Can, and Mané all available. And the game still wasn't truly won until Salah came off the bench in the 67th minute.

Meanwhile, Stoke. Stoke aren't all but mathematically out of the league, as West Brom were last week, but the gap's four points and goal difference, and they've played a game more than the four teams directly above.

The last three matches are symptomatic of Stoke's season. There's still a chance. Just get a win, or two, by any means necessary. Nope. Keep it close against Tottenham at home, concede but get one back, but concede again within minutes. Seemingly get a last-20-minutes winner at West Ham, then let Andy Carroll score in the 90th minute. Take an early lead against Burnley, don't get a second, eventually concede midway through the second half. One, a loss when a draw would have been okay considering opposition, but more important were the two draws in matches that you could have won.

Good enough for one goal. Rarely good enough for two. Rarely good enough to get the win you so desperately need. Close, touching-distance close, but no better than close.

Stoke haven't won a match since January 20, a 2-0 home win against Huddersfield. Since then, six draws, five losses. In case you were curious why Stoke are going to be relegated. They've conceded three goals just once over that stretch, 0-3 at Arsenal with all three goals after the 75th minute, but they've conceded at least once in nine, the only two exceptions 0-0 draws against Watford and Southampton.

So, seems like a 2-0 or 3-0 home win, something similar to Huddersfield, Southampton, Newcastle, Bournemouth over the last couple of months. Something that should have happened last week at West Brom as well.

But there is the small problem of Paul Lambert.



Liverpool have never beaten a Paul Lambert side at Anfield. 1-1 Norwich, 1-3 Villa, 2-2 Villa, 0-1 Villa, 1-2 Wolves. I remember every single one of those matches and I hated every single one of those matches. Now would be a good time to break that streak.

I understandably haven't been watching much Stoke this season, so my best guess at an XI is similar to last week's against Burnley. Something like Butland; Zouma, Shawcross, Martins Indi, Pieters; Shaqiri, Allen, Ndiaye, Bauer; Crouch, Diouf. Maybe Sobhi or Ireland come in for Bauer, a full-back who's been used as a winger lately. Maybe it's 4-4-1-1 rather than 4-4-2, with Shaqiri in the hole and both Bauer and Sobhi on the flanks, with one of Crouch or Diouf left out. I believe Darren Fletcher is a player who still exists if you really want to pack the midfield. Choupo-Moting, Stafylidis, and Grant are out injured; Wimmer and Glen Johnson are doubtful.

It's almost become rote, but Liverpool cannot look past this to Wednesday. Liverpool cannot do what Liverpool did last week, at least in the last 15 minutes. Or the last 15 minutes on Tuesday.

This is the terrifying part of the season. Things to play for, both domestically and in Europe. A rapidly thinning squad. But optimism. And optimism is always terrifying.

But this is still the Liverpool side that's gotten us to this point. So show us. And show Stoke.