22 April 2017

Liverpool v Crystal Palace 04.23.17

11:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
4-2 Liverpool (a) 10.29.16
2-1 Liverpool (a) 03.06.16
2-1 Palace (h) 11.08.15
3-1 Palace (h) 05.16.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 West Brom (a); 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-2 Bournemouth (a)
Palace: 2-2 Leicester (h); 3-0 Arsenal (h); 1-3 Southampton (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 13; Firmino 11; Coutinho 9; Lallana, Milner 7; Origi 6; Wijnaldum 5; Can 4; Lovren, Sturridge 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Palace: Benteke 12; Zaha 6; McArthur 5; Cabaye 4; Dann, Tomkins, Townsend 3; Wickham 2; Campbell, Ledley, Milivojevic, van Aanholt 1

Referee: Andre Marriner (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Gomez Lovren Milner
Wijnaldum Lucas Can
Firmino Origi Coutinho

This is the song that doesn't end. Yes, it goes on and on, my friend.

So, in addition to Mané, Henderson, Lallana, Ings, etc., Matip, Klavan, and Lucas are all questionable with minor muscle injuries. That's two center-backs (two-and-a-half if we're being generous), three central midfielders, a would-have-been-helpful back-up striker, and Liverpool's best attacker.

Fantastic. As if we needed more evidence that Liverpool's squad is insanely shallow.

I can't even really begin to guess how Liverpool would line-up with Lucas missing from a midfield already without Henderson and Lallana, hence the above predicted XI. 3-4-3, with just Wijnaldum and Can, would be an option if more center-backs were fit. Please no Milner in midfield, not after that first half at Stoke. Maybe 4-4-2 with both Sturridge and Origi up top? Maybe Coutinho drops into the three with Woodburn or Alexander-Arnold in attack? Alexander-Arnold has also played in central midfield for the u23s. Grujic could be an option, although I remain wary of a player who's barely featured all season, even if he's making the bench these days. Kevin Stewart hasn't even made the bench in almost two months, and hasn't played in a league match since September.

As for the center-backs, Matip's at least seemingly most likely of the doubtful. Which would be helpful. But Joe Gomez, even without almost any playing time with the first team due to another lengthy injury, might not be the worst idea given his strength and speed. There's a reasonable argument that he'd be far better suited to face Benteke than either Klavan or Lucas.

Crystal Palace are all but safe, seven points and substantial goal difference ahead of the relegation zone. That wasn't the case a little more than month ago, barely clinging onto 17th ahead of Hull and Boro, in the bottom three as recently as the end of February. But that's what happens when you win five of your last seven, including victories at Chelsea and against Arsenal. Allardyce will, of course, take full and total credit for their rejuvenation, but a center-back named Mamadou Sakho (*shrugs quizzically*) has been a key part – the winning streak beginning upon his entrance into the starting XI – and he's ineligible tomorrow. And they're also missing his back-up, Scott Dann, through injury.

Hennessey; Ward, Kelly, Tomkins, van Aanholt; Cabaye, Milivojevic; Zaha, Puncheon, Townsend; Benteke. Delaney could come into defense rather than Tomkins, Schlupp has been starting at left-back recently but van Aanholt's fit again, and Allardyce could try to pack the midfield with McArthur or Ledley rather than Puncheon or Townsend.

Because Crystal Palace will Allardyce. Strong in the center, no matter absentees, combative in midfield, fast on the flanks, counters and crosses. I am obviously most worried by the former Liverpool players involved, not only top scorer Christian Benteke – who LOVES playing against Liverpool – but even Martin Kelly, now (correctly) used more often at center-back. But Wilfried Zaha's become the centerpiece: still only 24, by far his best season return with six goals and nine assists, adding a definitive end product to his pace and dribbling. Zaha and Benteke on the counter should absolutely terrify Liverpool. They'd terrify a full-strength Liverpool.

The last time these sides met, albeit without Sam Allardyce involved, was just dumb. Palace only took seven shots but put six on-target, with Benteke responsible for three of them, scoring twice. Liverpool twice allowed equalizers barely minutes after taking the lead, the first of which came from a hilariously horrific defensive error, the second from a too-easy Zaha cross, both from headers.

But Liverpool were scoring for fun those days, unbeaten in ten going into that match, housing Watford 6-1 after that match. And Liverpool put two more past Palace after Palace had gotten back to 2-2. Liverpool are not scoring for fun these days, reliant on defense (?!?!?!?!) and doing *just enough* in attack for recent wins over West Brom and Stoke.

That's going to be a lot harder tomorrow with all the absentees. But Liverpool have no other choice at this stage of the season. Not with the incredibly tense and tight chase for fourth. Not with just five matches remaining.

17 April 2017

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 West Brom

Previous Match Infographics: Stoke (a), Bournemouth (h), Everton (h), Manchester City (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Leicester (a), Tottenham (h), Hull (a), Chelsea (h), Swansea (h), Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.



Defense wins matches. Well, okay, put it another way: defense assures you don't lose matches or leads, and will get you the win if you finish just one competent attacking move, whether from open play or a set play.

It happens when you register well above your season average in both tackles and interceptions – especially interceptions, joint-second most by Liverpool this season, tied with 1-1 at Manchester United and behind only 1-0 v Manchester City – despite having nearly 64% possession.

When you win 20 of 32 aerial duels in your own half, including eight of 10 in the penalty box, against the side with the joint-most headed goals in the league, holding them to just one errant, off-balance headed shot.

When you limit the league's most threatening side on set plays to zero chances from them, despite four corners, a few free kicks, and what felt like far too many long throws.

When you catch West Brom offsides on six different occasions, well above their 1.4 per game average.

When your goalkeeper saves his fifth clear-cut chance in the last four matches, stopping 50% of the on-target big chances he's faced.

And you can win regardless of posting a joint-lowest shooting accuracy in a match this season, with just two of 15 shots on-target. You can win regardless of taking more shots from outside the box than in. You can win despite still missing four of the usual front-six starters.

Because, in addition to that superlative defense, you also get your first set play goal in the league since January 2, and first free kick goal since October 1. When Roberto Firmino scores the winner for the second-successive match, with three goals and three assists in his last six appearances, after going six games in all competitions without any of either.

And you get your first 1-0 win of 2017, the last coming on New Year's Eve. Only the third 1-0 win of the campaign, after 1-0 Everton and 1-0 City, the latter being Liverpool's best defensive performance of the season, the former a match where they had to hang on by fingernails for the first half-hour, eventually grinding their way to the latest of winners.

Win ugly. Beat the dross. Do it away from home, against a side and manager that's frequently foiled and frustrated you. It's taken far too long, but maybe Liverpool are finally learning.

16 April 2017

Liverpool 1-0 West Brom

Goals:
Firmino 45+1'

Liverpool were getting Pulis'd until Liverpool Pulis'd Pulis.

That'll do just fine.

Any trip to West Brom and any match against a Tony Pulis side – especially away from home – is going to be a frustrating match. There will be 11 opposition players in their own half behind the ball for long stretches. Chances will be few and far between and mostly not very good. You will have way too much possession but still have to cope with threatening long balls and set plays.

And all that happened. 45 minutes of meh and fouls and back passes and hoofs and lightly sprinkled with half-chances untaken for both sides. Firmino shooting wide, Coutinho volleying over and shooting over; Chadli unable to connect at the back post from a deep free kick, Robson-Kanu tamely shooting at Mignolet. Lovren, Lucas, and Matip seemingly always on the ball; Firmino, Coutinho, and Origi not on the ball nearly enough.

Then a set play. An unnecessary foul. Not the most threatening cross in, but a dangerous flick-on. A second ball finding an open goal-scorer sneaking behind his marker to make the headed break-through with just seconds left in the first half.

Imagine my surprise when this all leads to Liverpool scoring, not Liverpool conceding. Also, my delight. Schadenfreude is a hell of a drug.

It wasn't incredibly surprising to see more of the same in the second half until it was entirely unfeasible for West Brom to do so. 25 or so more minutes of near-constant Liverpool possession with only a couple of chance and none taken. Origi blasting wide from what's become his spot on the left edge of the box. Milner getting his volley all wrong after a delightful move from Wijnaldum and Firmino. Origi with the ball in the net but Firmino rightfully ruled offside in the build-up.

But then three West Brom changes and then Liverpool increasingly pushed back, and an unsurprising spell of opposition pressure but also without a ton of chances. As in Liverpool's 2-1 win over West Brom at Anfield in October, as in recent 2-1 wins against Burnley and at Stoke. And as in the recent 2-2 against Bournemouth, where Bournemouth got a late equalizer from next to nothing.

Thankfully, today was at Stoke, not against Bournemouth. And like against Stoke, the credit goes to Simon Mignolet. West Brom had their one moment in the 80th minute. And West Brom didn't take it, as Salomon Rondon held up and turned Matip before feeding Matty Phillips, but the clear-cut chance denied by a brilliant kick-save.

The final 10 minutes were incredibly stupid, but not in the worst way. Too much West Brom possession. Too many West Brom set plays. Too much Liverpool hoofing, hoping, and resetting. But despite our constant, never-ending, yes-we're-traumatized fears, Liverpool held on well enough, with the end stages highlighted by a perfectly-in-character cameo from Alberto Moreno, a chance at an empty net on the break after another successfully defended corner pushed wide with three Liverpool players screaming at him from better positions. Never stop doing you, Alberto. Wait, no. Do stop. Stop right now.

It wasn't exceptionally impressive, but all 11 Liverpool starters worked hard, with Can and Firmino most noteworthy. The former had one of his all-action, dominating midfield performances that we need to see more consistently, the latter put in a shift so thorough I'm amazed there were rumors he might not be fit enough to play, not to mention contributing the lone goal. Mignolet, Matip, Lovren, and Lucas all did what they needed to in defense, whether in covering, in aerial duels, in punching crosses and in another late game-saving save.

That's now two consecutive one-goal victories away at sides who've often frustrated and punished Liverpool. Against the type of sides and types of matches which have so often foiled Liverpool this season. Liverpool hadn't won at the Hawthornes in the league since April 2012. Liverpool hadn't ever won an away league match against a Tony Pulis side. It's Liverpool's first 1-0 league win of 2017, and only the third of the campaign after 1-0 Everton (a) and 1-0 Manchester City (h). Liverpool now reclaim third place, two points ahead of City, and extend the gap over fifth to nine points, if only due to games in hand.

Liverpool did what Liverpool needed to do, at both ends of the pitch. At this point of the season, that's all that matters.

15 April 2017

Liverpool at West Brom 04.16.17

28 years. Justice For The 96.


8:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 10.22.16
1-1 (a) 05.15.16
2-2 (h) 12.13.15
0-0 (a) 04.25.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-2 Bournemouth (a); 3-1 Everton (h)
West Brom: 0-1 Southampton (h); 0-2 Watford (a); 0-0 United (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 13; Firmino 10; Coutinho 9; Lallana, Milner 7; Origi 6; Wijnaldum 5; Can 4; Lovren, Sturridge 2; Henderson, Matip 1
West Brom: Rondon 7; McAuley 6; Chadli, Morrison 5; Phillips 4; Brunt, Dawson 3; Fletcher, Robson-Kanu 2; Evans, McClean 1

Referee: Jon Moss

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Klavan Matip Lovren
Clyne Wijnaldum Can Milner
Firmino Sturridge Coutinho

Dejan Lovren hinted at Liverpool keeping the three-at-the-back system earlier this week, discussing the need to cope with West Brom's directness and questionably playing up how well he, Matip, and Klavan mesh.

It's not necessarily the worst idea in the world. In theory, more taller players would be better able to cope with long balls and set plays and aerial duels, especially after a week of actually training in said formation. And Liverpool's attack did well in the second half against Stoke, with Firmino, Coutinho, and Sturridge coming in, a 3-4-3 rather than unbalanced, inexperienced, and square-pegs-in-round-holes 3-5-1-1.

Unfortunately, Firmino's once again doubtful, for the same reasons which only saw him play the second half last week. And if Firmino's unable to start, Liverpool have a couple of options, although obviously none as good as the side with Firmino. With three at the back, it's probably more of a 3-5-1-1 as we saw to start the game against Stoke, with Lucas between Can and Wijnaldum and Coutinho behind either Sturridge or Origi. Maybe both Sturridge and Origi, with one ostensibly playing wide or in a 4-4-2 diamond. Or, one of the kids in the more typical 4-3-3 or even 3-4-3: either Woodburn or Harry Wilson.

I would really like to see Daniel Sturridge start tomorrow. Yes, because of his performance off the bench last week. Because he's finally fit. And because, when fit and firing, he is still one of Liverpool's better players. He links better with Liverpool's other attackers, is better able to lead the line against a side like West Brom, and is far, far more likely to score goals. And Divock Origi's pace could be more of a benefit if needed off the bench.

Whether it's three-at-the-back or 4-3-3, Lucas in midfield isn't the worst idea in the world either, for the same reason as three-at-the-back isn't the worst idea in the world. More taller players, more better headers, a firmer defensive shield.

Because Liverpool can't just roll an XI out and expect to overrun West Brom. That hasn't worked against many in 2017, unlike at the beginning of the season, and especially not with Liverpool missing Mané, Henderson, Lallana, and possibly Firmino as well. But it really won't work tomorrow. Liverpool have to respect West Brom. Liverpool have to actually game plan to beat West Brom.

If I haven't mentioned it before – p.s. I have – I really, really hate facing Tony Pulis sides. Even Tony Pulis sides that are winless in three, have lost four of their last six games, have actually scored goals in just one of their last six games, have lost their last two against Watford and Southampton, and are probably close to coasting into the end of the campaign. Tony Pulis sides never seem to coast against Liverpool.

My best guess at an XI is Foster; Dawson, McAuley, Evans, Nyom; Fletcher, Livermore; Chadli, Morrison, Phillips; Rondon. Brunt and McClean other possibilities out wide. Maybe Claudio Yacob in midfield. Maybe 4-3-3, either with Morrison playing deeper or Brunt or Yacob coming in. West Brom, somehow at this stage of the season, have no injury concerns.

Regardless of personnel, West Brom will be West Brom. West Brom are West Brom. Deep, blocking, Uruk-Hai defenders. Destroyers in midfield. Quick, counter-attacking, crossing wingers, and a heading, hold-up play machine up front. Pure Tony Pulis right into the veins.

West Brom 3-1 Arsenal, almost exactly one month ago, is the terrifying template. That lone win in the last six, the only match where West Brom have scored in the last six. 77% Arsenal possession. A rapid-fire Arsenal equalizer in the 15th minute after unnecessarily conceding three minutes prior, which should have changed the tone and sent them on their way. But Arsenal never truly able to pierce West Brom's big, dumb, and always-in-the-way defense. Arsenal outshot after 90 minutes. And Arsenal conceding from two corners and some comedy goal-keeping. This may sound familiar, etc etc.

West Brom have, unsurprisingly, scored the most set play goals in the division. Something something Liverpool something corners. Something something sigh.

This could well be Liverpool's hardest match left on the calendar, although it's not as if we're all unaware that any match can be Liverpool's hardest match. But away from home. Against arguably the best and arguably the toughest of the mid-table bloc. Against a big, burly set play and counter-attacking side. Against Tony Pulis. At a ground where Liverpool haven't won a league match since October 2011, with one draw and three losses since.

There are six games left. Make them count.

10 April 2017

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Stoke 

Previous Match Infographics: Bournemouth (h), Everton (h), Manchester City (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Leicester (a), Tottenham (h), Hull (a), Chelsea (h), Swansea (h), Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.



The less said about that first half, the better. An unfamiliar formation, a makeshift XI. Not the worst performance, especially as the half went on, and some underserved bad luck, but still an unsurprising result. And probably the wrong decision, even considering the absentees and squad limitations.

The more said about the second half, and the second half changes, and Firmino, Coutinho, Sturridge, and Mignolet in that second half, the better.


And you can now add two more to that list.






So while there's a surprising amount of substitute goals, there aren't that many game-changing substitute goals, at least compared to last season. Origi's at Sunderland, maybe Origi's against Everton to seal the match, and Coutinho and Firmino's strikes yesterday. Otherwise, they've been added gloss on already near-certain results. And Christian Benteke, sold last summer, remains Klopp's joint-top substitute scorer.



There haven't been enough game-changing substitute goals because there haven't been enough game-changing substitutes. Usually, the squad's limitations are highlighted by Liverpool's substitutions, or lack thereof. Saturday, it was highlighted by the initial team selection, and rescued by being able to bring two – arguably three – of Liverpool's best players off the bench.

Still, Liverpool picked a good time to score some incredibly important substitute goals on Saturday. And at near-record pace, too. Only Mané's first-half quick-fire double against Tottenham saw two Liverpool goals scored in less time this season.

They weren't wholly individual goals – see: Sturridge's defense-splitting pass to Firmino and then run into the box for the first, as well as Wijnaldum's perfectly weighted ball over the top for the second – but those two moments of brilliance from brilliant players were deservedly the talking-points. Amazingly, better things happen with better players on the pitch.

And Liverpool very much needed those two moments.


This was Liverpool's largest Expected Goals deficit by Michael Caley's numbers this season. It's the joint-largest under Klopp, the same xG difference as in the 1-3 loss at Swansea with the second-string at the end of the last season.

Only two other sides have posted 2.0 xG or higher in games against Liverpool this season. Swansea's 2.5 xG at Swansea and Manchester City's 2.7 xG at City. Both Swansea and City had five big chances in those matches: each missed three, had one saved, and scored one. Liverpool won the first match 2-1 and drew the second 1-1.

Stoke had four big chances on Saturday: Walters' goal, Arnautovic's first-half shot into the side netting, and Mignolet's two miraculous saves on Adam and Berahino, with the score line at 0-1 and 2-1 respectively. As seemingly always happens with Liverpool, two of the four were self-inflicted: errors by Lovren and Wijnaldum to set up Arnautovic and Adam.

It's the first time Mignolet's saved two big chances in a match this season; he's now saved nine of 27 on-target big chances in league matches. Loris Karius has also saved two big chances in a match this season, but there's a massive asterisk. That was at Bournemouth, a 3-4 loss, with the second of those two saves setting up Ake's winner. Not only did Mignolet deny what could and probably would have been two crucial goals, both saves saw the ball pushed out of danger as well.

Mignolet has come in for a lot of deserved criticism this season (and last, and the season before that, and etc.), but this was a performance we'll all remember if Liverpool actually achieves its goals and finishes in the Top 4 this season.

Six games left.

08 April 2017

Liverpool 2-1 Stoke

Goals:
Walters 44'
Coutinho 70'
Firmino 72'

That probably should not have happened.

Well, let me rephrase. I did not expect that to happen. That's more accurate.

The first 45 minutes could not have gone worse. An unexpected XI and formation with Coutinho, Firmino, and Sturridge only fit enough for the bench. A first league start for Ben Woodburn, a second league start for Trent Alexander-Arnold. The first time Milner's played in midfield this season. And, most surprisingly, a 3-5-1-1 formation.

And Liverpool very much looked a makeshift side in an unfamiliar set-up.

Stoke dominated early on. Absolutely dominated, with Liverpool almost wholly unable to possess the ball in the opposition half and only keeping the score at 0-0 because the linesman rightfully ruled Shaqiri offside with the ball in the net and because of Marko Arnautovic's errant finishing. But really, it was just a terrible, terrible game, from both sides, and all too in keeping with previous Liverpool poor performances away from home against these types of teams.

To be slightly fairer, Liverpool actually got better as the half went on, starting around the half-hour mark. Which isn't entirely unexpected given personnel and formation. Liverpool actually had more of the ball and Ben Woodburn actually got on the ball. But then, because of course, shenanigans. Mike Dean ignoring a transparently clear penalty on Woodburn when Pieters dove in, immediately followed up by Jon Walters' seventh goal against Liverpool in 13 games, an easy header after a ball over the top to Shaqiri completely set Clyne and Klavan on fire. With barely more than a minute left in the first half.

Panic, panic, the sky is falling, etc. Desperate reaction needed. Desperate reaction taken, with previously-ill Coutinho and needing-rest Firmino replacing Alexander-Arnold and Woodburn. Still three at the back, but 3-4-3 rather than 3-5-1-1, and actual experienced outstanding attackers on the pitch. Milner back in the position he belongs in, Clyne back on the side he belongs on.

But it was almost all over before it started, and Liverpool have Liverpool's man of the match to thank for it. Seven minutes after the restart and Liverpool are unsurprisingly a bit more coherent than in the first half, but haven't truly kicked into gear. And Stoke have a corner. And Liverpool's suicidal tendencies pop up at the least helpful time, with Wijnaldum somehow heading an attempted clearance back towards his own goal. Towards four Stoke players with none from Liverpool in the immediate vicinity. Directly to the feet of Charlie Adam four yards out. And Simon Mignolet denied him.

From there, the turning of the screws. Origi's curler just wide. Sharp efforts from Firmino and Coutinho saved by Grant. A bullet header from Lovren off the bar. But no goal, not for lack of trying.

No goal until Daniel Sturridge came on. Daniel Sturridge came in the 68th minute. Liverpool were level in the 70th minute. Liverpool were ahead by the 72nd minute.

First, Can's chipped cross in the direction of Sturridge, parried by Whelan but directly to Coutinho, arrowed into the far corner. Then Wijnaldum's long pass over the top to a barely onside Firmino, absolutely Suarezed into the net from 20 yards out on the half volley. And that's the highest compliment that I can pay that strike. I honestly thought it was Luis Suarez for a half-second.

Sturridge may not have been directly involved in either goal, but it was his clever movement which helped create space for both, in sadly direct contrast to Origi's lack of.

But, as is Liverpool's wont, Liverpool almost immediately threw it all away, in a matter of moments. Stoke's first attack after conceding the second, Arnautovic in behind Clyne and a delicious low cross finding Berahino in behind Klavan, an apparent tap-in from approximately four yards out. And Simon Mignolet denied him. And that's why Simon Mignolet's the man of the match.

And no matter how frequently Liverpool have tortured and tormented us late in close matches this season, that was about it. For how terrified we all were, there weren't any true moments of terror after Mignolet denied Berahino's clear-cut chance. Liverpool denied Stoke space in their defensive half, tried to counter into Stoke's half, and controlled proceedings and even possession in the final stages. As a good, competent side should.

Desperate reaction achieved. And, in truth, despite the overwhelming euphoria (ps, eat that Stoke), the bare minimum achieved. Keeping necessary pace with the rest of the top four contenders. Beating a side that hadn't won against a top-seven team since October 2015. Doing what you're supposed to and need to do. Doing what we haven't seen enough of this season.

Today was Liverpool's weaknesses and strengths all laid bare. Injuries and squad depth remaining the biggest detriment. An inability to change formation or tactics successfully when key players aren't available. Defensive errors, goals conceded.

But firepower when needed. A reaction when needed. A win when needed. The brilliance of Coutinho and Firmino. The tantalizing potential of a potentially fit Sturridge. Simon Mignolet's actually a goalkeeper sometimes. Goal-scoring, game changing substitutes. Liverpool's 18th point gained from a losing position, the best in the league, but also up against a record where Liverpool's dropped 15 points from winning positions.

It was a manic, schizophrenic match. It's been a manic, schizophrenic season. And there are six games left.

07 April 2017

Liverpool at Stoke 04.08.17

10am ET, live in the US on CNBC

Last four head-to-head:
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.27.16
4-1 Liverpool (h) 04.10.16
0-1 Stoke (h, League Cup) 01.26.16
1-0 Liverpool (a, League Cup) 01.05.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Bournemouth (a); 3-1 Everton (h); 1-1 City (a)
Stoke: 0-1 Burnley (a), 0-2 Leicester (a); 1-2 Chelsea (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 13; Firmino 9; Coutinho 8; Lallana, Milner 7; Origi 6; Wijnaldum 5; Can 4; Lovren, Sturridge 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Stoke: Allen 6; Arnautovic 5; Crouch 4; Bojan, Shaqiri, Walters 3; Bony 2; Adam, Martins Indi, Muniesa, Shawcross 1

Referee: Mike Dean

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Wijnaldum Lucas Can
Firmino
Sturridge Origi

Sadio Mané needs knee surgery. Both Jordan Henderson and Adam Lallana are getting better, but neither are all that close to returning. And Philippe Coutinho remains ill, not at Melwood yesterday or today because of the virus which saw him depart Wednesday's match just after the hour.

So, how's your week going?

Neither illness nor a lack of mid-week training completely rules Coutinho out. And Daniel Sturridge is back, only fit enough to stay on the bench against Bournemouth but potentially capable of starting tomorrow. Screw it, let's go diamond.

Now, the above formation isn't really a diamond. It's basically the usual 4-3-3 with a different front three. Firmino will Firmino wherever Firmino wants while Sturridge works the inside right channel and Origi the inside left. The midfield three will play exactly as they have in the last two matches, for better and for worse.

If neither Sturridge nor Coutinho are fit enough to start, I honestly have no idea what Klopp will do. It'd seemingly have to be either 18-year-old Trent Alexander-Arnold on the right or 17-year-old Ben Woodburn on the left. Maybe Moreno – either in attack or at left-back with Milner in attack? And I also remain concerned about Lucas Leiva's ability to start three matches in a week.

There's a chance Marko Grujic, having made the bench against both Everton and Bournemouth, comes in, whether in place of Lucas, pushing Can into the holding role, or with Wijnaldum moving into the front three, but I remain doubtful. He's missed three months, he's hardly played for the u23s. Anything he does this season remains a bonus.

Meanwhile, Stoke have comfortably settled into their usual April "we're nowhere close to the top and far enough away from the bottom, is the season over yet?" groove. 12th in the table, amongst the same pack of sides where Bournemouth sit, eight points and goal difference clear of the relegation zone. And winless in the last month, losing their last three matches against Chelsea, at Leicester, and at Burnley.

Stoke have a reasonably good defense and a surprisingly paltry attack, especially considering the glut of attacking midfielders in the squad. They've only kept four clean sheets in the 13 matches since the start of the New Year, but one of those was against Manchester City at Manchester City, and they've given up more than two goals in a match just once during that stretch: a 4-0 drubbing at Tottenham.

It will not be easy for a Liverpool side missing four of its preferred front six to make the necessary break-through.

Still, a side with Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Berahino, Bony, Walters, Diouf, Bojan, and Afellay should have more than 33 goals through 31 matches; only Burnley, Hull, Sunderland, and Boro have scored fewer. Of course, Burnley, Hull, and Sunderland all scored twice against Liverpool on their own ground already this season so that may not be the best barometer.

My guess is Grant; Johnson, Shawcross, Martins Indi, Pieters; Cameron, Adam; Walters, Allen, Arnautovic; Berahino. Sobhi, Afellay, Bojan, Diouf, and Shaqiri other options on the flanks, Whelan could (and probably should) start ahead of Adam in midfield, and Crouch or possibly Walters might play up front. Diouf, Walters, and Shaqiri are carrying minor injuries but should be available; Ireland and Butland are the only confirmed absentees. Three at the back, something Stoke deployed more often earlier in the season but less so of late, is a possibility but seems unlikely.

Obviously, a response is needed after Wednesday's disappointment. And Liverpool don't have the best record with responses, at least if they're not playing a top-seven side. Liverpool beat Tottenham and Arsenal convincingly after defeats at Hull and Leicester but 3-4 Bournemouth was followed by 2-2 West Ham; 2-2 Sunderland was followed by 0-0 Plymouth and 0-1 Southampton; 2-3 Swansea was followed by 0-1 Southampton and 1-2 Wolves.

There are seven games left. And a response is needed.

06 April 2017

Visualized: Liverpool 2-2 Bournemouth



Previous Match Infographics: Everton (h), Manchester City (h), Burnley (a), Arsenal (h), Leicester (a), Tottenham (h), Hull (a), Chelsea (h), Swansea (h), Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.




(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Another Liverpool match against a Bottom 10 side, another regrettable performance. Another early goal conceded. Another goal conceded from a defensive error, then another conceded from an uncleared set-play. Another lead lost.

It must be a day which ends in "Y."



Nine defensive errors leading to goals, through 31 games. Which – surprise, surprise – is exactly the same total as at this time last season. But aside from Lucas against Leicester and Lovren at Crystal Palace, those are some very, very costly goals. And it gets worse when you include unnecessary penalties given away and subsequently scored: 2-1 at Bournemouth, 1-1 and 2-2 at Sunderland.

Liverpool at least responded, something we failed to see in 0-2 Burnley, 0-2 Hull, and 1-3 Leicester, but kind of saw in 2-3 Swansea and definitely saw in 2-1 Burnley. As against Burnley three weeks ago, Liverpool got the needed equalizer just before halftime and the lead on the hour mark, well-worked and well-taken goals starring Firmino and Coutinho, then Wijnaldum and Origi.

And this really almost ended just as 2-1 Burnley ended. Despite the absences of Mané, Lallana, and Henderson. With Sturridge and Matip only fit enough for the bench. With Coutinho needing to go off just after the hour due to illness. Woodburn replaced Coutinho against Burnley in the 61st minute, but Liverpool still pretty much all but shut up shop.

This time, Matip replaced Coutinho, a switch to a three-at-the-back system. Which did seem a bit odd with so much time left. But Sturridge wasn't fit enough for half an hour, neither was Grujic, and for whatever reason, Klopp didn't want to go Woodburn or Trent Alexander-Arnold again. Congesting the middle and defensive thirds was prioritized over any additional impetus on the counter-attack.

And it nearly worked. Despite increased opposition possession, Liverpool held Bournemouth without a shot from Matip's entrance until that 87th minute scramble. Of course, Liverpool didn't take any either.

But then, that 87th minute scramble. Long throw not fully cleared, blocked shot not fully cleared, blocked shot falling to Josh King, Ragnar Klavan twisted inside-out, goal. As we've painfully learned, it only takes one moment against Liverpool.



Ten "late" goals in total, of the 39 conceded through 31 matches. Three opposition consolations where Liverpool still won, Hull rubbing additional salt into the wound, three against Bournemouth in that horrific fixture, and three one-goal leads lost. It's not that bad of a record, but there are some very bad goals in there.

And it leads directly into...



15 points, although it's not entirely fair to expect Liverpool to hold onto the lead in every one of those matches. Still, most remain regrettable. And all except the West Ham game saw Liverpool's opponent score their equalizer on or after the 69th minute – which is when Agüero scored City's last month. No, not nice, stop that.



And 15 points gained from losing situations. It's the circle of life. Truly good teams should have more of the latter than the former.

So now it's yet another underwhelming performance against a side "that Liverpool should beat," although it's getting harder to write "that Liverpool should beat" in the face of overwhelming evidence otherwise.

Once again, two clear-cut Bournemouth chances, two shots on-target, two goals.

Teams who've scored two or more clear-cut chances against Liverpool: Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (a), Swansea (h), Hull (a), Leicester (a), Bournemouth (h).

Games where Liverpool's keeper has had a 0% save percentage: Burnley (a), Hull (h), WBA (h), Swansea (h), Burnley (h), Bournemouth (h).

I do not understand how Liverpool continue to be so much worse against the worst teams. Almost without fail.

And so now it's another regrettable, avoidable result. It was a chance to put more distance between the chasing pack that has games in hand, especially since City – two points back with a game in hand – and United – six points back with two games in hand – both drew as well. While Tottenham and Arsenal both won.

It's another vintage Liverpool performance, and not the good kind of vintage. And if Liverpool fail to make the Top 4 at the end of the season, it'll be these games and these results which cost them.