On Loris Karius

You have no idea how tempted I am to just post nothing but pictures of Loris Karius. Well, if you follow me on Twitter, maybe you do.

That's slightly a disservice to Liverpool's new #1, Klopp's third signing since taking over. Only slightly.







Both played 34 league games. Both conceded 42 goals. Loris Karius faced a lot, lot more shots than Simon Mignolet.



Mignolet still somehow gets by on his "shot-shopper" reputation, which is supposed to make up for his shaky command of the penalty box, mediocre-at-best distribution, and propensity for errors.

There aren't may shot-stoppers who average 63.1% save percentage, better than only Rob Elliott, Brad Guzan, and John Ruddy for regular goalkeepers in last season's Premier League. And he wasn't much better the two seasons before, saving 67.4% and 67.5% of shots faced in the Premier League.

Karius saved 74.4% last season, and in fewer games, 75.3% of the shots faced in 2014-15 and 76.2% in 2013-14.

Karius saved higher percentage of shots on-target in total, Danger Zone shots, Wide Box shots, and Outside the Box shots. He saved a higher percentage of Clear Cut Chances, as well as two of the seven penalties he faced (three scored, two missed). In every conceivable "shot-stopping" metric, Karius was better last season, and often by a healthy margin.

Command of the penalty box? Karius made 81 successful claims last season with just one failed claim, as well as 16 punches. Mignolet made 74 successful claims, but failed on nine (by far the most in the league), as well as 17 punches. Karius isn't the most awe-inspiring, just about average for Bundesliga keepers, but average remains better than Liverpool have done in the last few seasons. Especially last season.

Distribution? Mignolet has a higher pass accuracy (60.6% versus 54.1%) but that doesn't quantify a) Mainz's very different playing style or b) how many times I've screamed at the television as Mignolet holds onto the ball for five seconds while the opposition retreats into position before he plays a safe pass which gets Liverpool nowhere.

Defensive errors? Karius made three last season, none leading to a goal. Mignolet made six – joint-most in the league – four of which led to a goal.

1/3 Minutes per error#Karius career every 835 mins
All LFC GK since 2011/12, every 563 mins
All EPL GK since 2011/12, every 747 mins

— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) May 24, 2016

There are disclaimers, because there are always disclaimers. Karius is only 22 (for one more month) – both a good and bad thing – and while he spent a little more than two years in Manchester City's academy (no, he doesn't count as a homegrown player), he's never played in the Premier League. A league where teams play a lot more crosses and defenders get away with a lot more contact.

More notably, and probably painfully, I hesitate to remind that I wrote similar three years ago. "Wow, look at this younger keeper who's saved a bunch of shots, including more shots in dangerous positions, compared to Liverpool's current mistake-prone keeper who faced a lot less shots and has gotten worse in each of the last three seasons." Mignolet's save percentage and error frequency in his last two seasons at Sunderland is almost exactly the same as Karius' last two for Mainz. And then the Simon Mignolet Era happened. So, caveat emptor, etc.

Do we blame Rodgers for Mignolet's decline? The difference in playing, and defending, style? Liverpool's ever-changing, often-disappointing defense? The presence of Martin Skrtel, whether or not he's playing? Unfireable, unkillable, will-be-here-with-the-cockroaches-and-Keith-Richards-after-the-nuclear-armageddon goalkeeping coach John Achterberg?

Yeah, probably those things too. And, hopefully, Liverpool will also upgrade on both defenders and goalkeeping coach this summer. Both are very much needed, and Liverpool have already started with the free transfer signing of Jöel Matip. Goalkeeper is a tough position. Good goalkeepers go through baffling swoons, mediocre goalkeepers all of a sudden play their faces off (often, amazingly, against Liverpool). Predicting how goalkeepers will play, and react to a new side and style, is not easy.

The short version is that Klopp signed his first-choice goalkeeping target, from a club and league he's very familiar with. Liverpool will pay all of £4.7m as a transfer fee, just about half of what Mignolet cost. Karius' wages will almost certainly be no more than Bogdan's, if not lower, as Bogdan signed as a free transfer. Karius has a lot of time to adjust to Liverpool, and the league, at only 22 years old. And it's only May 25.

It's a start to what'll be a very important summer for Liverpool. And it's a damned handsome start.

On Adam Bogdan

As of Friday, Adam Bogdan is Liverpool's third signing of the summer, the third out-of-contract player with Premier League experience, and will officially join the club on July 1. Just like James Milner, just like Danny Ings.

You've heard the jokes. Liverpool only signed Bogdan because he had an excellent game against Liverpool in the FA Cup: saving nine shots, keeping a clean sheet, and earning a replay. Which Bolton lost when Bogdan was replaced by Lonergan – because of an injury, because that seems to often happen to Bogdan – and Liverpool scored two late goals. It's the easy joke given the (probably rightful) criticism of Liverpool's transfer committee.

And, to be fair, while Bogdan clearly played well in that FA Cup match, Liverpool's shooting left something to be desired. Which, as you may remember, happened a lot last season.



The backup goalkeeper isn't going to make or break any club. But whether you're pleased with the transfer probably comes down to whether you think Liverpool need a straight replacement for Brad Jones or competition to potentially unseat Simon Mignolet.

Well, Adam Bogdan may be the compromise between those two poles, may be the best of both worlds.





Let's be blunt. Brad Jones was not good. He's certainly a nice guy. But he's a mediocre goalkeeper, at best. You can't help but remember Jones embarrassingly diving the wrong way for Rooney's opener at Old Trafford in December, the beginning of a 0-3 loss, Jones' first league start of the season. You can't help but look at Jones' record: 27 starts over five seasons, just 11 in the league. 1.3 goals allowed per game in all competitions, 1.45 in the league. Even when Mignolet was at his worst this fall and winter, Mignolet was still better than Brad Jones. And Adam Bogdan will almost certainly be better than that.

When available, that is. Bogdan has missed extended spells in the last two seasons, damaging knee ligaments in 2013-14 and both fracturing a finger and straining an ankle in 2014-15. All three have been "unlucky" injuries suffered in training, which makes you wonder whether it's a problem with the player or Bolton's training. He played just 851 minutes in the Championship last season, and played 2610 minutes – 29 matches – the season before. Which is barely more than Simon Mignolet played in the Premier League last season. That doesn't exactly bode well.

But, when available, how does Bogdan compare to Mignolet?







To be fair, one goalkeeper is facing Championship sides, the other Premier League sides. Championship-level strikers versus Premiership-level strikers. There is a bit of a difference.

But still, Bogdan faced one less Clear Cut Chance over the last two seasons, but saved two more than Mignolet. Bogdan saved more Danger Zone shots and a much higher proportion of shots from outside the box as well. Mignolet was more consistent zone-to-zone, Mignolet saved two penalties to Bogdan's one. And Liverpool allowed fewer shots on-target, fewer Danger Zone shots on-target; who knows how Bogdan will react to being less involved in the action. Their Goals Conceded per 90 numbers – Mignolet last season, Bogdan the last two seasons – were almost exactly equal. Which probably says more about Liverpool's defense than either goalkeeper.

Neither keeper is especially good with their feet: Mignolet's pass accuracy is much better, Mignolet makes more short passes and fewer longer passes. But that could well be due to the different styles of each team. Mignolet prefers to punch, Bogdan prefers to claim; ever since Pepe Reina, through the three different goalkeeping coaches and all the different keepers (Reina, Cavalieri, Doni, Jones, Mignolet), Liverpool seems to prefer its keepers to punch.



One is an established, if second choice, international with a good deal of Premier League experience. The other has mainly played in the Championship and has only recently became the second (sometimes third) choice for Hungary behind 39-year-old Gabor Kiraly.

Liverpool are clearly working within a budget this summer. Unsurprisingly. By adding Milner, Ings, and Bodgan, addressing need positions early, they've left funds for a big signing or two to come. A Maty Ryan, Mattia Perin, or Timo Horn would have been a sexier, more lauded signing, but also a more expensive one; the wages would be similar but there'd also be a transfer fee involved. Liverpool see challenging Mignolet as less of a need than the many other needs.

Adam Bogdan has the ability to be a perfectly capable backup keeper. Does he have the potential to be more than that? Yeah, maybe. He seems a very good shot-stopper, albeit against Championship opposition. He's only 27, just a few months older than Mignolet and still quite young in goalkeeper years, but with less experience and having had less of an opportunity to prove himself.

So, while my first instinct is to mock and to joke, like with Milner, like with Ings, this seems a decent bit of business. Not heart-stopping, press-stopping, I've got the vapors and we'll win the league business, but reasonable, okay that'll do, at least Liverpool are marginally improving business. This is the reality we live in.

Granted, Liverpool still has a lot of work to do this summer. Granted, Bogdan still has a lot of growing to do to displace Mignolet. But, looking at the statistics, you can see why Liverpool decided to go in this direction. And it certainly wasn't because of a single match against a misfiring, mediocre Liverpool team.

On Simon Mignolet

The official site just posted confirmation of Simon Mignolet's move to Liverpool, the club's fourth summer signing after Kolo Toure, Luis Alberto, and Iago Aspas. And it's only June 25. Sometimes, I don't recognize this Liverpool anymore.

So what kind of goalkeeper is Liverpool getting?




Wow, what an upgrade! Liverpool are going from a keeper who saved just 42 shots on target last season, 55% of the shots on target he faced, to a keeper who saved 124 shots, slightly less than 70% of the opposition shots on target. Mignolet averaged 3.26 saves per match, Reina averaged 1.35.

And here are the locations, via Squawka, of both saves made and goals conceded.




Mignolet allowed more in the center of the goal and the top right corner but saved loads more low shots to the bottom corners, while Reina allowed notably more low to his right.

Okay. Of course, it's not as clear cut as shots saved and goals conceded totals.

Reina, in seven fewer league appearances, faced fewer than half the amount of shots on target as Mignolet, which makes fairly clear the difference in playing for Liverpool versus playing for Sunderland. The most shots on target Mignolet faced in a single match was 11, against Tottenham on the last day, but he also saw 10 from Liverpool and Villa, eight from Arsenal, and seven from City and Wigan. The most Reina saw in a single match was five: from Spurs (a), Stoke (a), and Wigan (a). Five shots on target would have been a fairly easy day for Mignolet last season. If your defense is allowing that many more shots, especially shots from distance, you're bound to come up with a few more saves.

And almost as important as save percentage is the goalkeeper's distribution. Reina's passing from the back has been one of his biggest assets during his Liverpool tenure, and it's especially crucial in Brendan Rodgers' system, where every defensive player needs to be comfortable with the ball at his feet.

Mignolet completed just 41.4% of his passes last season; 746 attempted, 306 successful. Reina completed 70.8%; 692 attempted, 490 successful. The average length of a Mignolet pass was 51 meters; Reina's average was 36 meters. Sure, much of that may have to do with both Martin O'Neill and Paolo di Canio's managerial preferences – especially's O'Neill love of hoofing and hoping – but in naming him player of the season, the incomparable Sunderland blog Roker Report notably mentioned Mignolet's need to improve his distribution. That's no small matter at Liverpool.

In addition to his outstanding save percentage, Mignolet also had a higher success rate claiming crosses and punching clear than Reina, although both were well above the league average.

The Belgian was the best keeper in the league last season according to WhoScored's player rating, but the fourth highest-rated by Squawka, behind Cech, Begovic, and Pepe Reina, mainly due to his horrific possession score.

Despite Liverpool's claims to the contrary, you'd have to assume this signals the end for Pepe Reina, whether he leaves this summer or next summer. We've seen quotes to the contrary from both Reina and Rodgers, but you rarely buy a £9m keeper just for "competition" (*ignores references to Chris Kirkland*).

And Pepe Reina is both one of Liverpool's longest serving players and biggest personalities in the dressing room. His exit in the same summer as Jamie Carragher's retirement would leave a massive, gaping hole in the squad. Only Gerrard and Brad Jones will be 30 years or older, only Gerrard has been at the club longer than Reina. Only Gerrard, Agger, Lucas, and Skrtel would have made their debuts prior to the 2009-10 season, when Liverpool began this Hicks & Gillet-induced decline they've yet to recover from. That's a starling lack of institutional memory.

Still, I guess change has to happen sometime.

Both Mignolet and Reina are excellent keepers, despite Reina's drop in form last season (and then subsequent improvement as the season went on). But Pepe Reina is 30 years old, soon to be 31, and rumored to be on wages of approximately £100k a week. Simon Mignolet is six years younger, and will probably earn about half of Reina's wages, at most. Which is around £2.5m-per-year difference.

That, coupled with Reina's longing glances toward Barcelona, whether this summer or next summer, is pretty much the alpha and omega of this deal. For a change, Liverpool are proactive in dealing with a key player's possible exit. A welcome change. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a better young keeper in the Premier League who's available for less money.

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If it's not clear from the multiple links, this would have been vastly more difficult without Squawka, who are, hands down, one of the best resources for football analysis.