2019-20 Liverpool Season Preview

This season preview will read a lot like the last. Because this season should look a lot like the last. Which, as I suspect you remember, is very much a good thing.

I mean, Liverpool probably won't get 97 points again – a total only two sides have ever surpassed. Real Madrid's three-peat from 2015-16 through 2017-18 is the the only time there has been back-to-back Champions League winners in the last 30 years, since AC Milan in 1988-89 and 1989-90.

Doing those things again is gonna be hard.

That said, if you've spent your summer complaining about Liverpool's lack of transfers, you probably shouldn't have. For multiple reasons.

Sure, there's the sanity aspect. Sun being good for everyone and all. Your favorite internet basement clichés. But more importantly, Liverpool really didn't need to add anyone. Honestly. Not after what was spent and who was signed in the previous two or three windows. Not after what Liverpool accomplished last season, which seems to feel mostly sustainable; Liverpool ran hot at both ends of the pitch at times, but neither xG nor xG allowed was a ton different than actual goals scored and conceded. And not with a handful of players already on the books expected to play far bigger roles this season.

There ain't a whole lot of room for improvement. There are marginal gains to be made, to be sure, but continuity and cohesion are the priority.



The only surprise is that Liverpool failed to sign a back-up left back after Moreno's exit, but Klopp's gotta be happy with Milner and Gomez if needed. He's definitely happy with Gomez to play at right back, and Clyne's gotta still be at the club for a reason. And for what it's worth, both Adam Lewis and Yasser Larouci had runs in preseason too.

"Like a new signing" is often nonsense, but Keïta, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gomez, and Origi will all play more minutes than last season, and some by a vast difference. Three of them are between 24 and 26 years old, while Joe Gomez turned 22 a couple months ago. Plus, Adam Lallana, which, whatever, he exists and is squad depth. I'd be surprised if Shaqiri didn't see more minutes as well. And I'm setting the over/under for Rhian Brewster's minutes at what Origi saw in 2018-19: 585 minutes.

I will be surprised if Keïta or Oxlade-Chamberlain don't become close to regular starters, taking a decent amount of minutes off either Henderson or Wijnaldum or both. Last season, Klopp compensated for a lack of creativity and goals from midfield with both fullback involvement and that front three, but it was still one of the bigger concerns. Not that any of Klopp's sides over the last few seasons have featured goal-scoring or table-setting midfielders; Oxlade-Chamberlain's five goals and seven assists in the PL and CL in 2017-18 are still the high-water for a Liverpool midfielder in the last four seasons. But it would be another helpful arrow in the quiver.

And yeah, you can probably find more talented players than Origi, Shaqiri, Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Brewster – Liverpool's primary attacking back-ups – in the transfer market. But Liverpool aren't paying £40m or more for back-ups to this XI, and – tweaks, injuries, and questions in midfield aside – this is the XI.

Plus, it really is a reasonably deep side. And, more importantly, it's a side that's found the tenuous balance between being in relatively young and/or in its prime and being both settled and experienced.






Liverpool have the same players, many of them peak age, after a 97-point domestic season where Liverpool won the Champions League. Liverpool will play the same formation and style, with few tweaks to the starting XI, at least at the beginning of the season.

All but eight players who'll probably feature this season were either signed or promoted from the Academy by Jürgen Klopp. Lallana, Lovren, and Clyne don't much count at this point, while Firmino, Milner, and Origi have all played the vast majority of their matches – and vastly improved as players – under this manager.

13 of 25 players listed in the "When Did They Debut?" graphic have made more than 76 Liverpool appearances – two full league campaigns – but only five have made more than 150 appearances, with only Henderson above 200.



10 of Liverpool's 11 projected starters are between 24 and 29 years-old, with Alexander-Arnold still only 20. Aside from the 33-year-old ageless miracle that is James Milner, Liverpool's primary backups are 22 (Gomez), 24 (Keïta, Origi), 25 (Oxlade-Chamberlain), and 27 (Shaqiri). All of them have been at the club for at least one full season, if not longer.

Liverpool had the youngest average squad age in 2017-18, and the fifth-youngest in 2018-19. I suspect they'll be slightly higher up that table in this season.

Reasonably experienced but still reasonably young. Still with a bunch to prove, yet already having won the most prestigious trophy in European football.

It is very hard to find that balance.

Even Liverpool's fixture list isn't too bad, although it'll undoubtedly be made harder by some very congested periods.




October into November will be tricky, and December and January have some less than fun matches back to back to back – especially since the Club World Cup's gonna truly mess December up – but there are few stints where you go "oh crap." Which, again, is a lot like last season.

Injury or act of Fowler aside, Liverpool will remain very good. But so will their peers.

Tottenham clearly look like improving, adding Ndombele, Lo Celso, and Sessegnon, whether or not they sell Eriksen today. Spurs made the Champions League final and finished fourth, and probably would've finished third if not for the European distraction. I am curious how they adjust to new faces after going nearly two full seasons with the same XI but they're still probably the third best team in the division, and the biggest threat to leap-frogging Liverpool.

Chelsea and Arsenal remain in periods of adjustment. Chelsea's on yet another new manager and lost Hazard but added Pulisic and remains Chelsea and who the hell ever knows with them. It's Year Two for Unai Emery and Arsenal's spent a pile of money on Nicolas Pepe but still has that defense, even if Tierney and David Luiz should make it both better and more amusing.

At least we still get to point and laugh at Manchester United, who could well be passed by one or two from Everton, Wolves, West Ham, and Leicester if they start the season poorly.

And Manchester City are still Manchester City. That fucking team. Liverpool were one point off their insane pace last season thanks to millimeters and goal-line technology. Liverpool start this season one step behind yet again, losing on penalties in the Community Shield after controlling the majority of the match. Like Liverpool, they're mostly peak age. Agüero, Fernandinho, Otamendi, and David Silva are getting up there but Bernardo Silva, Sterling, Jesus, Sané, Laporte, Ederson, Rodri, Stones, Foden, Zinchenko, and new signing Joao Cancelo are all 25 or younger, while Gundogan, de Bruyne, and Mahrez are still only 28.

Sigh.

It will be a hell of a challenge to usurp City. But Liverpool remain the best placed to do so.

So, that said. I've a bit of housekeeping.

This'll probably be the last thing up on Oh You Beauty for a while.

A few of you already knew. More may have guessed, especially when I went an entire summer without writing – although an almost complete lack of transfers probably didn't help.

It's been almost 13 years. Nearly 2400 posts. I don't even want to guess how many words.

There is an insane surplus of writing talents around these tubes these days. And that certainly wasn't the case two, five, ten years ago.

Andrew Beasley remains one of the best stats writers. Grace Robertson is my favorite "new" writer, putting in great Liverpool work in a bunch of places. Kristian Walsh has a hell of a group getting going at Liverpool.com. I am thrilled that the good folks at The Liverpool Offside are still around. There's Anfield Index, there's The Anfield Wrap.

There will be good information and analysis on the internet and I may even write some of it. Just not every week. I will still be on Twitter, making terrible jokes that I demand more of you laugh at. And I might throw something up here, or for somewhere else, from time to time. But no more deadlines, no more weekly infographics or match reviews. At least for now.

It's time to actually enjoy a season. Because we're probably going to damned well enjoy this one.

Liverpool Goals Scored and Conceded 2018-19

Previous Seasons: 2017-18, 2016-17, 2015-16, 2014-15, 2013-14, 2012-13, 2011-12

Could Liverpool keep up last season's insane scoring pace? Almost. And "almost" was pretty damned good considering last season's ferocious nonsense.

So, yeah, Liverpool scored 20 fewer goals than in 2017-18, playing three fewer games. But Liverpool scored more in the Premier League this season, with 89 goals compared to last season's 84.

And Liverpool's scoring – in the league, in Europe – was still extraordinarily good.



The difference in scoring between this season and last is the Champions League. 47 goals in 2017-18, 24 goals in 2018-19. Liverpool scored 24 goals in just four CL matches last season: 7-0 Maribor, 7-0 Spartak, 5-0 Porto, 5-2 Roma.

But Liverpool won the Champions League this season, after falling at the last hurdle last season. Because goals scored – while incredibly, incredibly fun – aren't the end all, be all. You need to be decent at the other end of the pitch as well.

Liverpool were more than decent at the other end of the pitch.



We know the attack wobbled at times. Early in the season, adapting to 4-2-3-1 and Salah as a striker, and in late January-February, those in-the-end-costly 1-1 and 0-0 draws. But the defense rarely did.

And, for what it's worth, xG tracks quite closely in attack all season long. And xG allowed stayed surprisingly consistently all season long.

That mid-season rise in goals allowed, to barely above a goal-per-game average for a couple of games, is so noticeable because this defense was historically great for the vast majority of the season.



Incidentally, it remains hilarious that Liverpool almost won the league in 2013-14 with that many goals conceded.

Anyway.

2018-19 saw Liverpool's best defense in at least 13 seasons. Because, unsurprisingly, I have caveats for the above chart. Well, really, just one caveat.

That caveat is that it could be longer since.

2018-19 saw the fewest Liverpool goals in a league campaign since 1978-79, when Liverpool won the league conceding a hilariously low 16 goals in 42 games. Otherwise known as "40 years ago." 2005-06 was close, and damned good, and maybe better because Liverpool conceded fewer in all competitions while playing that many damned games, but I'll also remind that 2005-06 saw Liverpool start the Champions League at the first qualifying round, conceding three in six games against the likes of TNS, FBK Kaunas, and CSKA Sofia. Without those games, Liverpool's average that season is 0.732, barely worse than this season's. For what it's worth.

Anyway. Recent history.

Liverpool actually allowed more shots in the Premier League in 2018-19 compared to 2017-18 – 307 this season to 283 last season. Liverpool allowed 310 in 2016-17. So, par for the recent course, I guess.

But Liverpool allowed 53 clear-cut chances in the league last season, with 25 scored. An average of 1.4 per game, with nearly half going in and only 36% of those on-target saved. They allowed 54 in 2016-17, with 26 scored – 1.4 per game and 37% saved. Liverpool allowed 39 clear-cut chances this season – down to 1.02 per game – with only 11 scored and 56% of those on-target saved by Alisson.

Yes, there are a few concerns. 12 of Liverpool's 38 goals conceded – 31.6% – came from set plays. Which is a vastly higher proportion than recent seasons. And 12 conceded from set plays is almost exactly in line with recent seasons; Liverpool conceded 13 in both 2016-17 and 2017-18. But when the goals conceded total drops precipitously, it's slightly surprising when the amount of set plays goals conceded remains the same. At the same time, Liverpool can still be picked apart on the counter, even if far less often, with fast break goals given up against PSG, Wolves, and Fulham. We still got a handful of notable defensive errors, even from Alisson and van Dijk.

But at this point, it's nit-picking.

The opposition's scoring less, and a lot has to do with the opposition finding it harder to get good chances in good locations, which had very much been a problem in past seasons. The opposition doesn't get many shots, but those that they do are good chances in good positions. Not so much this season. But at the other end of the pitch, Liverpool are getting more and more in those good positions.





More Danger Zone goals in each of Klopp's seasons, with an absolute mountain in this one, both in proportion and total. Far fewer from outside the box, especially this season (how's Barcelona, Phil?). And the opposite is mostly the case for the opposition. Fewer Danger Zone goals, because fewer Danger Zone chances. Outside the box goals remained fairly consistent, because they aren't many and even the likes of Karius and Mignolet usually saved those. And there are more wide box goals because there were more wide box shots. That's what Liverpool usually gave the opposition, when they gave them anything.

In case you wanted more statistical validation, I got Liverpool's xG per shot this season as 0.137 versus 0.119 last season, with xG per shot allowed at 0.096 this season compared to 0.114 last season. And I love statistical validation because it makes me feel smart.

And, also, Liverpool's opponent didn't score a single penalty all season long. I can't remember that ever happening before. With only Mahrez missing from the spot. So they're not only talented and resilient and well-coached, they're clever and lucky. It's a very good combination.

This Liverpool attack and this Liverpool defense were a pretty good combination.

A few other assorted notes:

• I complained about how many late goals Liverpool conceded last season – both right before halftime and in the final few minutes. There were a lot fewer this season, even when considering how many fewer goals were conceded in total. And Liverpool could not stop scoring in those final few minutes. 32 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes, nine more than any other 15-minute block. Seven of those 32 came in the 90th minute or added time. And 20 of those 32 came with Liverpool behind, level, or only ahead by one goal, crucial late goals to win or cement the game, or at least take a point.

• This is the first season that I can remember when Liverpool almost had as many left-footed goals as right-footed goals. There's Salah, of course, but also a surprising six from Mané and a handful from Shaqiri and Sturridge. And also a higher proportion of headed goals than usual too, with another surprising return from Mané, as well as van Dijk et al. Of course, you're gonna score headed goals with Robertson and Alexander-Arnold crossing the ball.

• Not a ton of prolific assist-scorer combinations this season. Firmino to Salah, Salah to Firmino, and Mane to Salah last season all dwarfed this season's combinations. But I guess that's not surprising when Robertson and Alexander-Arnold are tops in assists, and not only do they rarely if ever score themselves, they spread the wealth; Alexander-Arnold set up nine different scorers, Robertson eight.

Two Years of Jürgen Klopp

Yesterday marked two years since Jürgen Klopp became Liverpool's manager. Jürgen Klopp. It's still hard to believe sometimes.

And it's been a wild two years.

A rebuild, rebirth, renaissance after the nadir in 2014-15. 3-1 Chelsea and 4-1 City little more than a month after Klopp's appointment; 4-3, 3-1, and 4-0 Arsenal; 4-0 in his first Merseyside Derby; multiple three-, four-, and five-goal wins. Two cup finals in his first season. Champions League qualification for only the second time in eight years in his second season.

There has been player development: Coutinho and Firmino are now bonafide stars; Henderson, Lallana, and Can have all improved as well. There have been clever transfer purchases: Mané and Salah are phenomenal, even at the costs, while Matip and Wijnaldum look decent deals as well. There has been youth development: Alexander-Arnold, Woodburn, and Gomez; Solanke, Grujic, Robertson, and Origi are a stage older but will continue to progress; even Emre Can's still only 23.

Liverpool have a young squad but Liverpool also have a settled squad.

And when Liverpool are fun, they're really damned fun. When they're not, welp.

Yes, there have also been issues. You know the issues. The issues are even more suffocating after the month we've seen. We'll talk more about the issues.



After this last month, you will probably not be surprised to learn that Klopp's most common scoreline has been 1-1, with 15 in all competitions and 10 in the league. Next most frequent has been 1-0 – yes, Liverpool can grind out games every now and then – with 13 in all competitions and eight in the league – followed by 2-1 (ten in all competitions; seven in the league), 2-2 (8; 6), and 0-0 (8; 4).

I don't have the stats for the entire Premier League, but I suspect this isn't uncommon. They are, after all, fairly common scorelines. And none of those most common scorelines end in a Liverpool loss.

Good. That's how it should be. Even more impressive is the fact that Liverpool have scored at least three goals in 30 of Klopp's 111 matches – 27%. It's happened in 23 of 75 in the Premier League – 30.7%.

Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool are good at the goals.



Again, Coutinho and Firmino have become fully-fledged superstars. Sadio Mané has less than a full season worth of games due to injury, international absences, and suspension, and already has 16 goals, all in the Premier League. Mo Salah, who's played just 11 games, is already joint-ninth top scorer since Klopp became manager. Liverpool have seen 29 different goal-scorers over the last two years, although only 17 are still with the club (with Origi and Ojo out on loan, futures to be determined).

Goals are good, and goals usually haven't been the problem for Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool – this last month, and last winter last season not withstanding.

So, how have Klopp's two years compared to managers past?



Gulp. That goals against average, especially in the league. Otherwise known as that 'the same struggles in defense, especially against set plays and teams you expect to beat, for two years now.' That 'great at limiting shots, awful at limiting good shots and goals.' That 'yep, you didn't buy a center-back this summer and the internet is still angry.' That 'nate is tired of repeating himself on the internet; I don't know how to keep rephrasing these things.'

Also, that points-per-game average, which is lower than I'd have guessed, and surprisingly less than both Rodgers and Benitez.

There are, unsurprisingly, a plethora of caveats.

Both Klopp and Houllier took over mid-season, which makes a difference, and had much more difficult rebuilds. Rodgers' first season wasn't great, but then 2013-14 happened. And then 2014-15 happened. And then 2015-16 started. That ship ran around and sank quickly. You ain't gonna get me to say anything bad about Rafa Benitez but hoooo boy that first league campaign had a good deal of hot garbage. And the league is vastly, vastly more difficult now than it was for Benitez or Houllier – the bottom teams are richer, and the top teams are really, really richer.

But Benitez had won the Champions League – if slightly flukey – and FA Cup by the end of his first two seasons, and his sides played 11 more games over two years than Klopp's "overwhelming" fixture list. Rodgers guided Liverpool to its best season in nearly a decade in his second year, even if it was very much Luis Suarez-led. By the end of 2000-01, Houllier's "third" season after a midseason appointment – the same time frame that Klopp's Liverpool is at right now – Liverpool had won a Cup Treble.

Gulp.

To be fairer, there's also this:



It's too bad that there aren't more Top 6 teams. Because Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool remains superlative against them. And Liverpool remain unbeaten in the Champions League this season, after going a lot farther in the Europa League that we'd any right to expect in Klopp's first season. Klopp's Liverpool are good against good teams and that's good. But a win percentage of just 53% in league matches against clubs outside the top six isn't going to cut it. Beat The Dross, Win The League™.

We know the weaknesses. Unfortunately, and depressingly, they've mostly been the same weaknesses for almost Klopp's entire tenure, at least in defense. The attack's gotten better and continues to get better, even if Liverpool seemingly can't convert a clear-cut chance of late. The defense, yet again, apparently is what it is.



There have been disappointments. There have been stalls and set-backs, last winter most notably, but this last month to a lesser extent. Progress has been slower than we'd like, but there has been progress.

Year Three has been a key year for all of the aforementioned Liverpool managers. Rodgers' Liverpool fell apart in stages, and continued to get worse, and Rodgers rightfully got sacked. Benitez's Liverpool didn't replicate those early cup successes but consolidated their top position in the league – better in 2006-07, better in 2007-08, and should have won the league in 2008-09. Houllier's Liverpool's won the League Cup, FA Cup, UEFA Cup, Charity Shield, and UEFA Super Cup.

Where Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool goes this year – which is still very much up in the air – may well define where Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool career goes.

2016-17 Liverpool Season Review

This was an okay season! Good, even! Really good when you remember the two before! It could have been better – and we all distinctly remember when, where, and how – but it could have been a lot worse. It usually is, after all. Liverpool scored a lot of goals – mainly in stretches, in spurts – and Liverpool let in a couple fewer than the past two seasons. Yeah, there was pain. It is Liverpool, after all.

When all was said and done, Liverpool finished four places and 16 points better than they did in 2015-16. Which is good enough for the Holy Grail. Good enough for fourth. Good enough for next season's Champions League, if only the final qualifying round.

If I wanted to make this short – oh, it's not going to be – that's really all that mattered this season, Jürgen Klopp's first full season at the club. Improvement. Improvement and fourth place. But mostly just fourth place, in a season where you needed 10 more points than last season to finish fourth. In a season where United improved by three points, Arsenal by four points, City by 12 points, Tottenham by 16 points, and Chelsea by a massive 43 points compared to last season's results.

And the league is only going to get harder.

Sure, let's start with some more stats

First, a quick and dirty comparison with Liverpool's 2015-16 league campaign:



Everything is mostly good. Everything is mostly better, and some notably so. There are two things that aren't: opposition shot accuracy and opposition clear-cut chances. It is safe to assume we will mention Liverpool's defensive issues again.

To see how Liverpool fared statistically in comparison to other sides, WhoScored's Premier League page is a good place to start, and for more in-depth, I recommend Ben Mayhew's scatter graphics and Objective Football's fancy stats.

In brief: Liverpool were very good in most shooting statistics, such as shot ratios (both total and on-target) and xG, both in taking shots and limiting the opposition's. Liverpool were not so good when it comes to things like PDO, save percentage, and opposition clear-cut chances. Liverpool were better in the first half of the season than the second, mainly because of a horrific start to 2017. Liverpool took lots of shots, and maybe could have converted more of them. Liverpool allowed very few opposition shots, but they were very good opposition shots, which the opposition converted too many of.

Having watched Liverpool this season, none of this should surprise you.

The lads, eh...

Liverpool used 28 players this season. 23 featured in Liverpool's 38 Premier League games, while five more played only cup matches.

23 different players are the joint-fewest used by a Premier League side this season, along with West Brom. Both Chelsea and Tottenham are next closest with 24, although to be fair, two of Tottenham's 24 played fewer than five minutes this season.

10 players made their Liverpool debuts this season: Mané, Wijnaldum, Matip, Klavan, Grujic, Karius, Alexander-Arnold, Ejaria, Woodburn, and Wilson. 16 players who made at least one league appearance in 2015-16 didn't play for Liverpool in any competition this season: Benteke, Ibe, Allen, Skrtel, Sakho, Toure, Smith, Flanagan, Brannagan, Bogdan, Teixeira, Chirivella, Caulker, Ward, Rossiter, and Canos.

That's quite a lot of turnover. I find it hard to believe we'll see anywhere near that much next season.

23 players in the league and 28 in all competitions is 11 fewer in both Premier League games and all competitions compared to last season. Only six Liverpool players managed to make 30 or more Premier League appearances in 2015-16 season: Mignolet, Clyne, Moreno, Firmino, Lallana, and Can. Eight did in 2016-17: Clyne, Milner, Wijnaldum, Firmino, Origi, Can, Coutinho, and Lallana.

As an aside, there are no central defenders on either 30-or-more-appearances list; no center-back played in more than 24 league games in 2015-16 and both Lovren and Matip each played 29 this season. At least one Liverpool center-back started 30 or more league games in every season from 1998-99 until 2014-15, whether Hyypia, Henchoz, Carragher, Agger, or Skrtel. There is something to be said for a settled defense. And it is safe to assume we will mention Liverpool's defensive issues again.

But, anyway, to return to the original point, fewer players in the Liverpool squad did make sense. Liverpool had fewer games without the Europa League, and there was clearly deadwood needing to be trimmed after 2015-16.

Having fewer players made a lot more sense before the season started.

Liverpool played 47 matches in 2016-17. Even with far fewer players in the squad, Liverpool used 40 different starting XIs.





You'll probably want to open the minutes played graphic in a new window.

Just 17 of Liverpool's 23 Premier League players featured for more than 300 minutes. That's a heavy reliance on an amount which isn't even enough to fill the match-day squad. And the average age of those 17 players is just 26.4 years old. Once again, Liverpool had one of the youngest sides in the Premier League this season. If you include the other six players who featured in league matches – Moreno, Alexander-Arnold, Woodburn, Grujic, Ejaria, and Stewart; you'd expect three or four of those players to see more minutes next season – the average age drops to 24.8.

The 11 Liverpool players who played the most minutes, both in the league and all competitions: Clyne, Firmino, Milner, Wijnaldum, Lovren, Can, Mignolet, Matip, Lallana, Mané, Coutinho. That's not a bad XI.

That XI hasn't been on the pitch at the same time this season. Ever. Not as a starting XI, not with someone coming on as a substitute. Either Liverpool were missing Mané or Coutinho or Henderson or Matip or etc etc, at literally every stage of the season. The closest Liverpool came to that XI was in the 1-1 draw against Chelsea, when a returning Sadio Mané replaced Philippe Coutinho. That's the only match that those 11 players all at least featured in.

We saw only four Liverpool starting XIs feature in multiple matches.

    
    

There's at least one player in all four of those XIs who makes you go, "wait, him?" And the XI closest to what's probably Liverpool's ideal, or at least closest to what we thought we'd see before the season started – the first, at Southampton and against Sunderland – had both Lallana absent through injury and Coutinho go off early in the second match, the incident which marked the beginning of the downward winter spiral, even if it took a few more matches for the rot to truly set in.

It is not coincidence that the two most-settled sides, the two sides who suffered the fewest injuries – more specifically, injuries to key players – have won the league in the last two seasons. But injuries happen.

And it is safe to say that injuries, absentees, and squad depth had a massive impact on Liverpool's season.

Now is the winter of our discontent...

Liverpool's slump didn't start when initially overloaded with matches – at least not in the league; there were more than a few unwelcome cup ties in January, even if Liverpool heavily rotated for those matches. But the month where Liverpool had the most matches, Liverpool were mostly good. Sure, Bournemouth and West Ham happened, immediately after Coutinho's injury, but Liverpool also narrowly beat Everton and City and throughly beat Middlesbrough and Stoke.

Liverpool's slump happened the next month, when fatigue set in and with key players still or becoming absent. Specifically, Coutinho either still injured or obviously nowhere near match fit after missing all of December, combined with Mané at the African Cup of Nations and Matip both injured then ineligible due to the African Cup of Nations.

Liverpool didn't win its first league game of 2017 until February 11, the sixth league match of the new year. Draws at Sunderland and United, and against Chelsea, with Liverpool taking a 1-0 lead in those first two away draws, ultimately conceding an equalizer in the 84th minute of both matches. Losses against Swansea and at Hull. Hull ended up relegated, with Swansea not far safe. That loss against Swansea was Liverpool's first home loss of the season, and came with Swansea 20th in the table having been out-scored 20-4 in their seven previous matches. And Liverpool only won one of the five cup matches during that stretch – the 1-0 replay at Plymouth – held 0-0 by Plymouth at Anfield, losing 0-1 in both semi-final League Cup legs against Southampton, then 1-2 against Wolves at Anfield.

Aside from Coutinho, Mané, and Matip, Henderson, Milner, Sturridge, Clyne, Lucas, Lallana, and Lovren also had minor injuries during that stretch, the majority missing at least one league match in the first six weeks of 2017. And at the same time, overuse set in with those who remained available, most notably with Roberto Firmino – limited to two goals and no assists in his ten starts in January and February, both goals coming in that 2-3 loss against Swansea – and Adam Lallana – who had seven goals and seven assists in the first 19 games of the league season, and one goal and no assists in the last 19 games of the league season.

The fatigue, especially in the front six, is likely a by-product of Liverpool's playing style, which makes getting more and better players even more essential. The fixture list isn't getting any lighter and the Premier League isn't getting any easier. I truly hope that the injuries aren't a by-product, though.

Also, I understand complaints about Liverpool's refusal or inability to strengthen during the January transfer window, but I've always been more sanguine about that period than most. It's not easy to add at that time of the season, and Klopp's not the first Liverpool manager reticent to spend in that window. Still, you can't help but wonder what could have been.

And Liverpool's squad, as currently built, isn't deep enough or strong enough to cope with missing that many players, or those players, no matter the opposition. Emphasis on "no matter the opposition."

Please stop giving away points as charity

Liverpool's only away losses came against 9th, 12th, 16th, and 18th. Liverpool's only home losses came against 14th and 15th.

In losses at Bournemouth and against Palace, Liverpool had the lead – multiple times and a two-goal advantage at Bournemouth! – and couldn't hold on. In draws at Sunderland and against West Ham, Liverpool had the lead and couldn't hold on.

We all remember why. Dumb, ill-timed goals conceded, often through defensive errors or set plays.

And at the other end of the pitch, a recurring inability to break down deep, determined defenses, especially when without Sadio Mané or, to a lesser extent, Coutinho and Lallana. Not enough movement, not enough pace in behind. Too many shots from distance, too many crosses. Then, too open against the counter-attack when throwing bodies against said brick wall, leading to said dumb and ill-timed goals conceded.

We saw a preview of all the evil in the second match of the season – 0-2 at Burnley – when, coincidentally, Mané's minor injury kept him out of the squad. An early goal conceded through a defensive error, a second through a counter-attack 35 minutes later, 80% possession and 26 shots but 65% of those shots from outside the box. And zero goals.

To be slightly fairer, Liverpool have dropped points, usually more than once, against at least one of the relegated sides in every season going back to 2002-03 except for 2013-14. Not that it makes this season's lost points any easier to stomach.

And Liverpool did, eventually, find a bit of balance at the end of season, first in cutting down on goals conceded while struggling in attack, then switching to a 4-Diamond-2 for the final two matches to blow past West Ham and Middlesbrough. Four consecutive clean sheets to finish the campaign, for the first time since Klopp took over. Just one goal conceded through a defensive error in the final 12 matches, and just three from set plays.

The defensive improvement was encouraging, and it is probably not coincidence that both Matip and Lovren started Liverpool's final seven matches, their longest stretch together this season, the longest stretch for any Liverpool center-back pairing this season. But the seven goals scored in the last two games were even more so.

The win at West Ham was especially encouraging considering Liverpool were backs against the wall, coming off a run where they'd scored just three in the previous four games, and facing a side they hadn't beaten in the five previous meetings. And it is hard to tell how much was due to "team with nothing to play for falls apart after conceding the opener, loses wildly" and how much was due to Liverpool actually doing good things. Still, after averaging 15 shots over the six previous games, going back to Sadio Mané's injury against Everton, Liverpool took 26 at West Ham and 25 against Boro. After averaging barely more than a goal per game over the six previous games, Liverpool scored four at West Ham and three against Boro.

And they did it against the type of sides that Liverpool threw multiple points away when facing earlier in the season, in matches that Liverpool had no choice but to win, and all without Sadio Mané. Those wins against West Ham and Boro were Liverpool's only Premier League matches where they scored three or more without Mané in the XI.

It came desperately close to "too little, too late," but Liverpool pulled through in the end.

One more thing about the defense...

Two center-back pairings played the majority of Liverpool's Premier League matches, the second thanks to Matip's long absence midseason. And both were mostly okay. Mostly. Matip and Lovren were the most consistent; Lovren and Klavan allowed the least and were a bit unlucky in goals conceded, but also saw the most errors; Matip and Klavan were very, very lucky but at least didn't make any unforgivable mistakes; and Lucas isn't a center-back.

All four of Liverpool's pairings had good matches – even Lucas, in keeping Harry Kane utterly silent at Anfield. All four had at least one very bad match – the most notable were Matip and Lovren at Swansea and against Palace, Lovren and Klavan against Swansea and Bournemouth, Matip and Lucas at Leicester, and Matip and Klavan at Manchester City. All four center-backs committed at least one Opta-defined defensive error leading to a goal: Matip in the 2-2 against West Ham, Lovren in the 4-2 at Palace, Klavan in the 2-3 against Swansea (and the first penalty in 2-2 Sunderland), and Lucas in the 4-1 against Leicester.

Which is in keeping what the majority of us already thought. Matip is Liverpool's best defender but – like Daniel Agger before him – is getting a reputation for not being available often enough. Lovren is Lovren, one minute a world-beater, in a full-blown panic the next minute, and he missed just as many matches as Matip this season. Klavan is serviceable but should be fourth-choice at best and, again, Lucas Leiva is not a center-back.

What was most important was a settled defense, whether Lovren-Klavan – five unbeaten games, from 3-0 Boro through 2-2 Sunderland, four wins and a draw only because of two stupid penalties – or Matip-Lovren in the final seven games of the season.

Liverpool haven't had a settled defense often enough, and that's down to the center-backs, because Clyne and Milner were all but omnipresent. Not that Milner's omnipresence was necessarily a good thing.

One more thing about the attack...

I would just like to highlight how many of Sadio Mané's goals and Roberto Firmino's assists came with Liverpool's preferred front three all on the pitch. Coincidentally, Liverpool's top assist-scorer combination this season? Mane and Firmino.

News Flash: When Liverpool had its preferred front three and settled center-backs, Liverpool were pretty good. Against the top sides and even against the bottom. And Liverpool's best players played better and did more when playing with better players. I imagine this surprises no one.

It's at the sharp ends of the pitch where this matters the most. The midfield's basically fine, even if – like in attack and defense – some players weren't available as often as we'd have liked. But Liverpool coped well enough with Can rarely playing in the first third of the season and Henderson out for nearly all of 2017. Liverpool have enough options in Henderson, Can, Wijnaldum, Lallana, Grujic, and Coutinho if needed, even if Lucas departs as expected; my only concern is if Henderson again misses half the season, as he's now done in each of the last two seasons. That's the only thing to explain the Naby Keita chase, but we'll let transfer rumor bingo lie for another day.

Unfortunately, Liverpool's best players at either sharp end of the pitch weren't available anywhere near as much as we'd like them to have been.

So, now what?

By now, we all know what needs fixing.

Breaking down defensive sides. Conceding dumb goals. Dropping points against the league's lesser lights. And most of it goes back to squad depth, but also starting XI quality in a couple of positions – left-back, center-back, one more top-level attacker.

There were times where Liverpool did well coping with all of those first three issues, both in the beginning of the season and at the end, and intermittently in-between. And Liverpool will assuredly attempt to further remedy these issues, as well as the last, over the summer transfer window. Everyone's already really really really excited for Liverpool to spend approximately seventy trillion pounds in the next two months.

As said above – probably not enough, at least in comparison to the complaints – Liverpool did a lot of good things this season. Liverpool improved a lot in comparison to the previous two seasons. At times, Liverpool scored a bunch of goals. At others, Liverpool strangled opponents, limiting them to exceptionally few shots and sometimes even few goals. Sometimes Liverpool even did both. Last summer's signings were almost completely successful, especially Sadio Mané, and if Liverpool can replicate or even surpass that in this summer window, hooooooo boy.

Because Liverpool will need to do all of those good things next season, in addition to less of the bad. With the league likely to get even tougher at both ends of the table and a return to European football after a year's absence, Liverpool will need to do all of them a lot better and a lot more consistently.

Liverpool Goals Scored and Conceded 2016-17

(Here are similar versions from 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16.)

The short version is Liverpool improved in all of these categories compared to last season. Total goals, number of players with 10 or more league goals, goals conceded, minutes per goal, set play goals conceded, etc.

That's a good thing! That bodes well for next season!

But the slightly longer version is that improvement was the minimum standard required, especially in regards to goals conceded, considering how Liverpool fared in both 2014-15 and 2015-16.



The second-best season in regards to goals scored – no prizes for guessing the best – in the last five seasons, and the best in regards to goals conceded.

Sure, Liverpool's goals conceded mark is nowhere near what Liverpool did under Rafa Benitez (41, 25, 27, 37, 27, 41 in his six Premier League seasons). It's still worse than Liverpool's average league goals conceded over the last 20 seasons – 1.03 per game. Liverpool's opponents scored a higher percentage of their goals in the Danger Zone than Liverpool did, and a vastly higher percentage in the six-yard box. Liverpool's opponents scored a higher percentage of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches. All of those aren't good things. Here, more than at the other end of the pitch, is where Liverpool still most needs to improve. But improvement is improvement is improvement. It's better than last year. It's better than the four previous seasons. It is actually better, despite how we feel whenever an attacker is one-on-one with Dejan Lovren or the opposition's lining up for a corner.

And, despite more than a few horror shows, the amount of goals conceded from set plays has gotten better as well.



I know, that's not how I remember it either. But, to be meaner, there were some costly ones.



Eight of 13 conceded in draws or losses. Five of 13 conceded at 0-0. Bournemouth's two late equalizers, Benteke's winner. Three coming from defensive errors: Karius on Payet's direct free kick, Mignolet at Hull, and Wijnaldum against Bournemouth. Fewer set play goals conceded is better. Even fewer would be best.

Still, it's hard to complain about Liverpool's scoring return, aside from the doldrums over the winter months with Coutinho's injury and Mané's absence.



Liverpool's second-highest goals per game average in all competitions in the last ten seasons8, and Liverpool's second-highest goals per game average in the league since the Premier League began in 1992-93.

Sure, it was fueled by the first third of season – four goals against Arsenal and Leicester, five against Hull, six against Watford. Sure, it got really, really bad in the middle third of the season. But Liverpool did bounce back, despite lingering injury and depth issues, despite teams working out how to defend against Liverpool's preferred system. And the last two games make the final third of the season look a lot better than it felt three weeks ago.

But Liverpool did at least bounce back. At both ends of the pitch.



And because of that, Liverpool finished fourth.

2016-17 Liverpool Spreadsheets

As promised/threatened last week, I'm going to put up my four Liverpool season-long spreadsheets. Normally, I'd wait until the end of the season to get these up but I've been asked and there's been a dearth of content because of the international break and I'm a bad blogger so you're getting them earlier.

• Liverpool Goals Workbook

• Opposition Goals Workbook

• Liverpool Premier League Shots

• Opposition Premier League Shots

I will try to keep these updated through the last nine games.

On Georginio Wijnaldum

Liverpool now have its seventh signing since Jürgen Klopp became manager. Liverpool now have its second £20m+ signing of the summer. And after months of speculation and multiple names mooted, Liverpool now have a new midfielder.

Welcome to Liverpool, Georginio Wijnaldum.

Most importantly, like Sadio Mané – and, at least so far in preseason, Marko Grujic – Wijnaldum provides goals from midfield. He scored 11 last season, including one penalty, which was a quarter of Newcastle's total. Liverpool need goals. More goals. All the goals. Especially from midfield: Milner scored five last season, Henderson and Allen two, and Can just one.

Yes, Wijnaldum scored six of his 11 in two matches: four against Norwich and two against Tottenham on the last day of the season. Yes, Wijnaldum failed to score between mid-January and mid-May, with Newcastle mired in its struggle against relegation. Yes, Wijnaldum scored all of his goals at St. James' Park.

I'm willing to chalk that up to Newcastle being a bad team. Maybe it's more out of hope than fact. The record away from home is the most forgivable. Newcastle scored 73% of their total goals at St. James' Park. Bad teams are usually dramatically better at home. It's not unreasonable to assume Wijnaldum will be better away from home in a better team. It's not unreasonable to assume Wijnaldum will simply be better in a better team.



So many runs into the box from deep, in position to convert from crosses, cut-backs, knock-downs, and lay-offs. That's exactly what Liverpool need from midfield.

It's notable that four of his goals – four of the first five he scored last season – came from headers, despite being a 5'9" midfielder. But that's more evidence of the clever positions he takes up on the pitch and in attack. Because, like Sadio Mané, Wijnaldum gets a lot of goals by getting into good shooting positions.

@BassTunedToRed I made this earlier in the season (and have updated it) on his shot position. Very well positioned. pic.twitter.com/bT5v0x9wPm

— Soccermatics (@Soccermatics) July 22, 2016

Only two Liverpool players with 10 or more shots in the league last year took a higher percentage from inside the box than Wijnaldum: Benteke and Skrtel. Benteke's a center-forward reliant on headers. All of Skrtel's shots came from set plays.

Incidentally, only three Liverpool players took more shots in total than Wijnaldum's 54: Coutinho, Firmino, and Benteke.

More importantly, compare Wijnaldum's proportion to Liverpool's other midfielders, whether attacking or central. Attacking midfielders? Firmino 61.9% inside the box, Lallana 61.4%, Ibe 44.8%, Coutinho 37.8%. Central midfielders? Allen 66.7% (just 12 shots), Milner 48.7%, Can 33.3%, Henderson 30.8%.

Liverpool took 629 shots last season, more than any other side but Tottenham. But just 53.9% of Liverpool's shots came from inside the box. Only five teams – Watford, Swansea, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Stoke – took a lower proportion of their shots from inside the box.

It is harder for Liverpool players to find space inside the opposition's penalty box than for Newcastle players, just because of how deep most opposition defenders were against Liverpool. Sit back, stay compact, keep Liverpool out. And Liverpool will eventually begin frustratedly firing from any and all angles. Time and time again last season. But lesser teams sit deep against Arsenal, Manchester City, etc. and those sides didn't have the same problem getting shots from inside the box that Liverpool routinely had. So Liverpool need to add players ready, willing, and able to look for and get those shots.

Yes, it will be harder for Wijnaldum to find that space next season, but that he's always trying to do so, and at least capable of doing so, remains a very crucial element which this Liverpool squad has needed.



Wijnaldum's also incredibly versatile – just like Sadio Mané. He can play in a two- or three-man central midfield, as a #10, or on the left flank. His best performances last season came as the #10, but I suspect he'll be much more of a central midfielder at Liverpool, a box-to-box player ahead of Henderson, Can, Lucas, etc, making the late runs into the box that Liverpool have so desperately lacked. Liverpool have the players in attack – Firmino, Coutinho, Mané, Lallana, even Ojo and maybe Markovic if need be. Liverpool assuredly need more in central midfield, especially after Allen's inevitable exit.

Still, a variety of options are a great problem to have, especially since Liverpool will certainly use a smaller squad this season, something already pointed out by the manager.

     

I'm admittedly a bit concerned about Wijnaldum's ability to play in a deeper position, just because he didn't do it as often or as effectively for Newcastle. His defensive profile is closer to Firmino and Coutinho rather than Allen, Henderson, Can, or even Lallana. But Klopp's seemingly not; after ostensibly chasing Dahoud and Zielinski, this is the player that Liverpool decided on, and are happy to pay £25m for. And, to be fair, Wijnaldum has done in more often and effectively for the Netherlands (pay no attention to the Netherlands failing to qualify for Euro 2016).

And like Sadio Mané (are you sensing a trend here?), Wijnaldum is entering the prime of his career, 25, to turn 26 in four months. Liverpool, with one of the youngest squads in the league over the last two seasons, are finally entering their prime, and Liverpool's two star summer signings fit directly into that demographic.



These are the 22 players I'd consider as Liverpool's most important, those who'll see the vast majority of next season's minutes. Others will assuredly feature – there will be domestic cups and injuries, and I still expect Liverpool to sign one more player to challenge Moreno at left-back – but these will be on the pitch most often, especially since Liverpool are without European competition. In 2013-14, the last time Liverpool just had domestic football, only 16 players saw at least 700 minutes in the league.

12 of these 22 players are between the ages of 24 and 27. In or entering their prime. Including the two players than Klopp signed for £20m+ this summer.

It's time for Liverpool to grow up, and this summer's additions – except for Grujic's potential, Klavan taking Toure's role, and Manninger basically signed to be the new goalkeeping coach – fit right into that category.

Add Wijnaldum to this list https://t.co/V5IYvHV0tW

— Omar Chaudhuri (@OmarChaudhuri) July 21, 2016

The contradictory narrative is that Wijnaldum is yet another over-priced PL player who played well against Liverpool. So many signed since FSG took over, whether by Dalglish, Rodgers, or Klopp. Liverpool fail to get Götze, so Liverpool go for the PL-proven Mané. Liverpool fail to get Dahoud or Zielinski, so Liverpool go for Wijnaldum.

I do not care. Those deals are old deals. This is a different manager who's working off what appears to be a cohesive plan. Who's adding the type of players that Liverpool need to add, in the age range that Liverpool should be working in. Jürgen Klopp's already done enough to get the benefit of the doubt, at the absolute least.

Georginio Wijnaldum provides Liverpool with mobility, versatility, shots in the box, and goals from midfield. He's already shown more than competence in the Premier League but still has the potential to do so much more. That's what I'm focusing on. That's all I'm focusing on.

Next season's shaping up very nicely.

Liverpool Goals Scored and Conceded 2015-16

Here are similar versions from 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15.

98 goals scored in all competitions isn't bad! 63 goals scored in the league isn't bad! Sure, it ain't great, but it's a hell of a lot better than last year's 52 in the league, 74 in all competitions.

Since Rafa Benitez took over in 2004-05, Liverpool scored more than 63 in the league in just four of 11 seasons: 2007-08, 2008-08, 2012-13, and 2013-14. Liverpool finished 4th, 2nd, 7th, and 2nd those seasons.



This was almost average in front of goal, at least for Liverpool. Average! Seeing as last season was pretty much historically bad in front of goal, and Liverpool switched managers mid-season, and Liverpool had all those injuries, and Liverpool competed on four fronts for most of the season, I'll take "almost average" as a first step.



Admittedly, it's a very, very small sample size for Rodgers this season – 11 matches, 1020 minutes – but those averages are both worse than last season's and didn't seem to be getting better anytime soon. Remember, Liverpool scored more than once in one of those first 11 matches: at home against Villa, an unnecessarily nervy 3-2 win thanks to Daniel Sturridge. Liverpool kept three clean sheets to start the season, but conceded two or more in three of the next eight matches.

To be slightly fairer to Rodgers, this season compares fairly poorly to Rodgers' first in 2012-13, where Liverpool scored more and conceded fewer.



Admittedly, Liverpool played a lot fewer matches that season, especially during the run-in (when Liverpool lost just once in the last 11 matches after the Europa League Round of 32 exit). Nine fewer matches in total, 1170 fewer minutes. And Liverpool still had Luis Suarez – not at the apex of his powers, but still Luis Suarez.

Liverpool did get better as this season went on, at both ends of the pitch, at least in the league. And that's including Liverpool pretty much giving up on the league in the last month with all focus rightfully on the Europa League.



Liverpool still don't score enough. Liverpool still concede too many – although not a disproportionate, unusual amount. Except on corners. 12 goals conceded from corners is a high since I started keeping track five years ago, with Liverpool averaging a goal conceded from a corner once every 483 minutes, once every five or so matches. At least goals from free kicks were down this season, making the set play goals conceded total pretty much in line with the previous four seasons.



With a full preseason, and more time between matches, it'd be surprising if Liverpool didn't continue to improve in every area. Buy a new attacker, a new center-back, and a new goalkeeper (this one seemingly almost done!). Maybe a few others. Score more, concede less.

It's a simple game, this.