On Pepe Reina

Gulp. Deep breaths. We can do this. We can do this. We can do this.

Sigh.

In news that surprises no one, as it's been rumored, discussed, and debated for a week now, Pepe Reina is on his way to Napoli on a season-long loan, 'confirmed' by Rodgers in this morning's press conference. And the move makes sense, from pretty much from every point of view. And I can't remember the last time I was so conflicted about transfer news. The head says "well, yeah, this is completely logical." The heart says "no no no no NO STOP THIS NOW." Stupid heart.

All the key players get what they want: Reina, Liverpool, Napoli. It's rare that happens in football. Or life for that matter, but now's not the time to get existential.

Deep breaths.

Reina makes somewhere between £4-5m per year in wages (£80-100k per week). Some, maybe even all, of that's now off the books. He gets a year at Napoli, back with Rafa Benitez and goalkeeping coach Xavi Valero, a team involved in the Champions League, before a seemingly inevitable move to Barcelona when Victor Valdes' contract expires. He'll get to play regularly prior to the upcoming World Cup, something Liverpool couldn't guarantee. That's the sort of respect that a club legend – and I don't use the term lightly – deserves. But if somehow Mignolet doesn't settle, doesn't fit (which I absolutely do not see happening), Liverpool can always refuse to sell come next summer; Reina's contract runs until the end of the 2015-16 season.

Liverpool aren't flogging him to the first suitor to blink flirtatiously and whip out the checkbook now that Barca are ostensibly making him wait a year. And, as suspected at the time and despite what was said to the media, Liverpool aren't going to have a two-men-enter-one-man-leaves goalkeeper competition for a season. Thankfully, as it almost never, ever works (see Dudek v Kirkland, among many, many others).

We covered a lot of this in the 'Welcome Simon Mignolet' post last month, but it's obviously worth reiterating that by almost every statistical measure, Mignolet has been the better keeper over the last few seasons. The Belgian has a higher save percentage, has been better at punching and claiming of crosses and corners, and made fewer errors.

Reina's save percentage has dropped precipitously since his first few seasons, hovering right around 69% (the league average) for the last three campaigns. Reina's errors have also risen each season: four in 2010-11, five in 2011-12, and six in 2012-13. Mignolet's statistics compare favorably to Reina's in almost every regard over the last couple of campaigns, as the Belgian has improved in each successive season while Reina's regressed. In one very in-depth statistical analysis, Mignolet was rated the second-best keeper in the league last season, just barely behind Julio Cesar. As said in the Mignolet post three weeks ago, the ex-Sunderland man topped last season's WhoScored performance rating for Premier League keepers, and was fourth – behind Cech, Begovic, and Reina – in Squawka's.

Pepe Reina is a three-time Golden Glove winner, but those three seasons were 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. He's kept 134 clean sheets in his 285 Premier League matches over eight seasons (only Cech has more of keepers who've made more than 50 league appearances), but only 40 in the last three seasons. In the five seasons under Rafa Benitez, Reina averaged 18.8 clean sheets per campaign. In the three seasons since, that's dropped to 13.3.

There is one statistic that remains heavily in Reina's favor. For all his increasing "faults," Pepe Reina's passing remains superlative. Both short and long. Few keepers are more accurate, few keepers are more involved, few keepers sweep as well as Reina does. Meanwhile, Mignolet's somewhat frightening passing statistics are what caused him to be ranked fourth by Squawka last season, completing just 41.4% of his passes last season (309 of 746) against Reina's 70.8% (490 of 692). And passing from the back is marginally important in Brendan Rodgers' system.

But sometimes you just have to damn statistics, because despite all the words and numbers and logical arguments, they aren't helping you cope.

Now that Jamie Carragher has retired, only one player has been at Liverpool for a longer period of time than Pepe Reina. You may have heard of him. He's only, at worst, Liverpool's second-best player ever.

Otherwise, every single player in Liverpool's first-team squad – all 25 to 30 of them – have been with the club for a shorter amount of time. Agger was signed in January 2006, Lucas in May 2007, Skrtel in January 2008. Every other player was either signed or promoted from the academy in the last five years.

That is a startling, terrifying lack of institutional memory. Not counting academy players promoted during his tenure (or before, in Gerrard's case), just four players on Liverpool's books were signed by Rafael Benitez: Agger, Lucas, Skrtel, and Glen Johnson. Only those four, plus Gerrard, Kelly and Spearing, have seen Liverpool finish higher than sixth. Only those players have experienced Liverpool in the Champions League.

Put it another way. Only 26 players in Liverpool history have made more appearances for the club than Pepe Reina, who has made 394. Just 26! In the 121-year history of the club! Reina has been a permanent fixture for eight seasons, and it will be incredibly strange to not see him guarding Liverpool's goal come August 17.

We knew that both Rodgers and FSG wanted to lower Liverpool's average age, for both wage and statistical reasons, but it's happened faster than I ever expected. And there will undoubtedly be consequences.

Almost as importantly, how are Liverpool going to replace this?



You need characters in the dressing room; they're ties that bind. Players to lead, players to bring others together. Carragher did that, Reina did that. And now both are gone.

We needed to see Pepe Reina emcee one of those celebrations at Liverpool. That we never did is further proof – as if we needed more – that life is not fair.

Good luck at Napoli, Pepe. Replacing you will be a hell of a hard task.

On Simon Mignolet

The official site just posted confirmation of Simon Mignolet's move to Liverpool, the club's fourth summer signing after Kolo Toure, Luis Alberto, and Iago Aspas. And it's only June 25. Sometimes, I don't recognize this Liverpool anymore.

So what kind of goalkeeper is Liverpool getting?




Wow, what an upgrade! Liverpool are going from a keeper who saved just 42 shots on target last season, 55% of the shots on target he faced, to a keeper who saved 124 shots, slightly less than 70% of the opposition shots on target. Mignolet averaged 3.26 saves per match, Reina averaged 1.35.

And here are the locations, via Squawka, of both saves made and goals conceded.




Mignolet allowed more in the center of the goal and the top right corner but saved loads more low shots to the bottom corners, while Reina allowed notably more low to his right.

Okay. Of course, it's not as clear cut as shots saved and goals conceded totals.

Reina, in seven fewer league appearances, faced fewer than half the amount of shots on target as Mignolet, which makes fairly clear the difference in playing for Liverpool versus playing for Sunderland. The most shots on target Mignolet faced in a single match was 11, against Tottenham on the last day, but he also saw 10 from Liverpool and Villa, eight from Arsenal, and seven from City and Wigan. The most Reina saw in a single match was five: from Spurs (a), Stoke (a), and Wigan (a). Five shots on target would have been a fairly easy day for Mignolet last season. If your defense is allowing that many more shots, especially shots from distance, you're bound to come up with a few more saves.

And almost as important as save percentage is the goalkeeper's distribution. Reina's passing from the back has been one of his biggest assets during his Liverpool tenure, and it's especially crucial in Brendan Rodgers' system, where every defensive player needs to be comfortable with the ball at his feet.

Mignolet completed just 41.4% of his passes last season; 746 attempted, 306 successful. Reina completed 70.8%; 692 attempted, 490 successful. The average length of a Mignolet pass was 51 meters; Reina's average was 36 meters. Sure, much of that may have to do with both Martin O'Neill and Paolo di Canio's managerial preferences – especially's O'Neill love of hoofing and hoping – but in naming him player of the season, the incomparable Sunderland blog Roker Report notably mentioned Mignolet's need to improve his distribution. That's no small matter at Liverpool.

In addition to his outstanding save percentage, Mignolet also had a higher success rate claiming crosses and punching clear than Reina, although both were well above the league average.

The Belgian was the best keeper in the league last season according to WhoScored's player rating, but the fourth highest-rated by Squawka, behind Cech, Begovic, and Pepe Reina, mainly due to his horrific possession score.

Despite Liverpool's claims to the contrary, you'd have to assume this signals the end for Pepe Reina, whether he leaves this summer or next summer. We've seen quotes to the contrary from both Reina and Rodgers, but you rarely buy a £9m keeper just for "competition" (*ignores references to Chris Kirkland*).

And Pepe Reina is both one of Liverpool's longest serving players and biggest personalities in the dressing room. His exit in the same summer as Jamie Carragher's retirement would leave a massive, gaping hole in the squad. Only Gerrard and Brad Jones will be 30 years or older, only Gerrard has been at the club longer than Reina. Only Gerrard, Agger, Lucas, and Skrtel would have made their debuts prior to the 2009-10 season, when Liverpool began this Hicks & Gillet-induced decline they've yet to recover from. That's a starling lack of institutional memory.

Still, I guess change has to happen sometime.

Both Mignolet and Reina are excellent keepers, despite Reina's drop in form last season (and then subsequent improvement as the season went on). But Pepe Reina is 30 years old, soon to be 31, and rumored to be on wages of approximately £100k a week. Simon Mignolet is six years younger, and will probably earn about half of Reina's wages, at most. Which is around £2.5m-per-year difference.

That, coupled with Reina's longing glances toward Barcelona, whether this summer or next summer, is pretty much the alpha and omega of this deal. For a change, Liverpool are proactive in dealing with a key player's possible exit. A welcome change. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a better young keeper in the Premier League who's available for less money.

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If it's not clear from the multiple links, this would have been vastly more difficult without Squawka, who are, hands down, one of the best resources for football analysis.