On Liverpool's Centerback Pairings

I was indirectly asked about Liverpool's center-back pairings on Twitter this morning. Which seems relevant, as Lovren's signing is apparently imminent, and Agger's perpetually rumored (emphasis on "rumored") to be moving on. So here's a quick comparison from last season's league fixtures.



There are, of course, a handful of caveats.

You can discount three of those immediately: Toure-Sakho, Toure-Skrtel-Agger, and Skrtel-Agger-Sakho, each appearing for less than 25 minutes at the end of matches, with Rodgers making substitutions to either shore up the defense or, in the case of Toure-Sakho in the last 18 minutes of the home loss to Southampton, remove a defender for an attacker.

Of the four pairings (well, three pairings and one trio) that played in six or more matches, the Skrtel-Sakho duo appeared in the hardest fixtures, by far.

The average league position of the opponents Skrtel and Sakho faced was 9th. Most notably, they played the full 90 minutes in both matches against City and Chelsea, Liverpool's two closest competitors, with Toure left on the bench for all four, and Agger left on the bench for three of the four. The opponent's average league position was 11.5 for Agger and Skrtel, 11.1 for Skrtel and Toure, and 11.5 for Toure-Skrtel-Sakho. In addition, nine of Skrtel-Agger's 13 matches were at Anfield. Just five of Skrtel-Sakho's 12 were.

Part of that was due to each player's availability – both Sakho and Agger missed matches they probably would have started in if fit at times last season – but Skrtel-Sakho did seem Rodgers' most-trusted pairing.

However, in their six matches against top-eight opposition (away to Everton, home against Tottenham, home and away against both United and Southampton), the Skrtel-Agger pairing conceded just four goals – three at Everton, one against Southampton – keeping clean sheets in the other four wins. So it's not as if they played badly against tougher opposition. You know, aside from allowing three goals at Everton. Although all four of those goals at least started from a set play, if not came directly from said set play. Which isn't good.

I am slightly surprised we never saw Toure-Agger again after clean sheets in the first two matches, but the pairing allowed more shots per 90 than any other CB duo that played at least one full match, and, to be fair, those wins and clean sheets came against Stoke and Villa.

The full list of each grouping's opponents (click to open in new window as it's necessarily quite wide):



I've complained about Opta's definition of a defensive error (doesn't necessarily include own goals or penalties conceded), but as it's the best I've got at the moment, a list of who partnered whom when each defender made a defensive error.

Skrtel (4): Toure and Sakho, Agger, Toure, Sakho
Agger (3): Skrtel, Skrtel, Skrtel
Toure (3): Skrtel, Skrtel, Skrtel
Sakho (2): Skrtel, Skrtel

Unsurprisingly, Skrtel's on the pitch when Agger, Toure, and Skrtel made all their errors. Because Skrtel was almost always on the pitch. He played 3221 minutes (out of 3420 possible) last season. Sakho played 1477, Toure 1447, and Agger 1420. Skrtel committed his errors no matter who he partnered. So, yeah, that doesn't help much.

Long story short: if you account for the strength of opposition, there doesn't seem a whole lot of difference between Skrtel/Agger and Skrtel/Sakho; there's room for improvement no matter which center-backs are on the pitch; and Skrtel-Sakho appears to be Rodgers' preferred pairing (if, of course, Sakho can stay healthy). For now.

Jamie Carragher and Defensive Positioning

Consider this an addendum to Noel's depressingly unsurprising post on Liverpool's defensive statistics with and without Carragher over at Liverpool Offside.

The numbers speak for themselves, but I've seen multiple people (not in Noel's post, by the way) credit Liverpool's inferior record with Carragher to Liverpool having to play a deeper back line thanks to Carra's notorious lack of pace. It's become something of a pet peeve of mine, because answers usually aren't that easy.

So, using the available average position diagrams from the Daily Telegraph match reports [they're missing v QPR (without Carra), v Villa (with Carra), and at Blackburn (without), because they're the Daily Telegraph and refuse to make anything easy or sensical], I thought I'd see if that was the case.

  

The fullbacks seem to get forward slightly more without Carragher, especially on Carragher's side, but not incredibly significantly. All in all, the charts look relatively similar expect for the white-outlined circles denoting where Carragher was. So let's get rid of the fullbacks.

  

That's better. And yep, looks deeper. But, again, not as much as I expected. There's a wider range of average center-back positions without Carragher in the line-up, but more interesting than how deep they play is how close together they are. I suspect having both center-backs nearer to one another, which suggests they're working better as a unit, is more meaningful than how deep either defends.

There were two matches where Carragher played notably deeper than his defensive partner: against Bolton and Wolves. Liverpool won both. The deepest Liverpool's center-backs played came at Chelsea, without Carragher in the line-up; Skrtel's average position is nearly inside the penalty box. And yes, Liverpool won that game too. So please, let's stop the focus on how "deep" Liverpool's defense is. The above suggests that isn't the alpha or omega.

Carragher has a tendency to exacerbate multiple problems in Liverpool's defense. That he's played so often borders on the unforgivable, even if there are excuses for individual games (it's Everton, it's away from Anfield, etc, etc). But crediting problems to a single factor, such as others having to play deeper because of said lack of pace, is far too simplistic. And might not even be true. As with everything else in football, defensive positioning depends on multiple factors – the other defenders on the pitch and the opposition, most notably. Often, it's not how deep Liverpool's defense plays. Who plays may well be, though.

2011-12 Turning Points

Lucas Injury
• 1.77 points per game before, 1.05 after [-0.62 PPG]
• 1.31 goals per game before, 1.05 after [-0.26 GPG]
• 0.92 goals conceded per game before, 1.11 after [+0.19 GCPG]

Suarez Suspension
• 1.72 points per game before, 1.40 during [-0.32 PPG]
• 1.17 goals per game before, 1.40 during [+0.23 GPG]
• 0.78 goals conceded per game before, 1.40 during [+0.62 GCPG]

Carling Cup Final and Agger Injury
• 1.56 points per game before, 0.50 after [-1.06 PPG]
• 1.16 goals per game before, 1.17 after [+0.01 GPG]
• 0.92 goals conceded per game before, 1.67 after [+0.75 GCPG]

All three are terrifying, but the effects of the Carling Cup final hangover and, more importantly, Agger's injury are by far the scariest. Liverpool have only played six league matches since, but are averaging a point less per game and conceding 0.75 more goals per game. Having Johnson and Kelly absent for most of those certainly hasn't helped, but Agger is the the biggest miss. Skrtel may have been Liverpool's player of the season – at least before this recent stretch – but Daniel Agger is by far Liverpool's most important defender. As Bass Tuned to Red wrote earlier this week, Liverpool have conceded a league goal every 129.7 minutes with Agger on the pitch, and a league goal every 58.9 minutes when he has been absent. Yikes.

Lucas' injury is almost as significant. Liverpool's record in the 13 games prior to his injury: 6W-5D-2L. Liverpool's record in the subsequent 18: 5W-4D-9L. Fewer goals scored per game and more goals conceded, although it's slightly surprising to see a bigger difference in goals scored rather than conceded. But Lucas' as the metronomic base for Liverpool's attacks is just as important, if not more so, than Lucas as the tough tackling defensive midfielder.

Finally, Suarez's suspension. Five matches, from Newcastle at home through Wolves away, returning as a substitute against Tottenham. Liverpool actually scored more goals per game during the matches Suarez missed. Carroll started as a lone striker in three: the two matches where Liverpool scored three – wins against Newcastle and Wolves – as well as the 0-3 loss at City. Carroll and Bellamy partnered in the loss at Bolton, linking up for the lone goal, while Kuyt started up front in the 3-4-2-1 scoreless draw against Stoke. However, Liverpool's goals conceded tally rose dramatically during that span, mostly thanks to conceding three against City and Bolton, both featuring Liverpool's first choice back four of Johnson-Skrtel-Agger-Enrique. It's hard to credit that to Suarez's absence, but I suspect (without proof) that opponents are more hesitant to send multiple attackers forward with the ever-dangerous Uruguayan lurking off the shoulder of the last defender.

Missing key players for long to extra-long stretches isn't a good enough excuse for this season's horrors. Liverpool still scored too few goals, conceded frustratingly in aberrant draws, and found new and inventive ways to drop points before any of these three turning points. However, all three absences, as well as the post-Carling Cup letdown, do help explain the increasingly diminishing returns during this horror campaign.

Daniel Agger, Danish Swagger

January 12th, approximately 9:30 p.m. in the United Kingdom.

That was the last time Liverpool conceded with Daniel Agger on the pitch.

It was DJ Campbell's 69th-minute winner in Blackpool, Dalglish's first league game. Since then, Agger played 45 minutes without conceding against Everton before starting in six clean sheets: against Wolves, Fulham, Stoke, Chelsea, Sparta Prague, and Sunderland. 606 total minutes, not counting whatever injury time was played in each game. That's an impressive run, to say the absolute least.

In contrast, Liverpool have won just one of the last six games when Agger hasn't played – the 3-1 victory over United. The recent record with the Dane absent is one win, three draws, and two losses – against Braga (a), Braga (h), United, West Ham, Sparta (a), and Wigan.

When fit, Agger is a prototypical modern center-back: good at almost every facet of the game. Quick, strong in the air, strong in the tackle, comfortable on the ball, and willing to pass and move or crack a shot from distance. The problem, as everyone knows, is that he isn't fit nearly enough.

Agger's played 20 of Liverpool's 46 games this season. Granted, that number's lower than it should be because of Hodgson's blatant insanity, but it's not far off past seasons. Agger played 36 of 56 in 2009-10, 26 of 55 in 2008-09, 6 of 59 in 2007-08 (when he twice broke his metatarsal), and 43 of 58 in 2006-07. That's 131 of 274 games over the last five years: just 48% of Liverpool's matches since August 2006. Admittedly, it's hard to build your defense on that availability.

But when he's available, he's worth the hype.

What Agger does doesn't always show up in chalkboards, my frequent crutch. Against Sunderland, Skrtel had more successful tackles, more successful clearances, and a better pass completion percentage.

Opta's charts don't show how Agger's cool head settles the rest of the back line. They don't show how his pace, especially compared to Liverpool's other center-backs, allows the Reds to play a higher defensive line. They don't show the times he strides forward to start the attack, linking midfield and defense. And they don't show how his presence immensely lessens Liverpool's tendency to hoof toward the forwards.

There are holes in Liverpool's defense, Agger or no Agger. Upgrades are needed at full-back and center-back. But, as the recent scoreless streak shows, any back four is better with Daniel Agger involved. It's no coincidence that Dalglish has brought him back into the fold and the defensive record is vastly improved. Under Hodgson, Liverpool had just six clean sheets in the league through 20 games. Agger only played in one – at left back in the 1-0 win over West Brom. Liverpool's kept five clean sheets in the league through Dalglish's 10 games and Agger's featured in all of them. There are coincidences and there are trends. This is the latter.

Now we can spend the next two weeks worrying that he'll come back from the international break in one piece.

Seek and ye shall recieve, I reckon...

Abhiram's comment from the last post:

Hey Nate, a new post with Liverpool transfer rumors and Alonso injury update will help now. There seems to be a lull created here after a hectic discussion in the aftermath of the Stoke game :).

I had an answer all typed out in the comments, and it's mostly in regards to Agger, but it started to get long, so I reckon I'll put it up as a new post. 25 comments on the last one really is too much to scroll through anyway.

In regards to Liverpool's transfers - as a warning, this is me writing out of my ass, but that's what blogging's all about. And here's what I see. Aside from other teams' silliness (wtf Man City!?!), I'm barely paying attention to the window.

I don't expect Liverpool to buy anyone, nor do I expect Liverpool to sell anyone unless a team's dumb enough to pay cash for Pennant, whose contract expires at the end of the season.

Maybe my biases show in this, because Agger is absolutely, unconditionally, my favorite defender on the team, but I do not believe he'll be sold. Every interview he's said he wants to stay at Anfield, and from what I've seen, he only wants a pay raise to £70k a week, which doesn't seem exorbitant. I truly think this most recent Milan talk, with his agent seen talking to AC club officials, is just his agent stirring up trouble. I am always inclined to believe Tony Barrett in the Liverpool Echo.

And £7.5m is a fucking laugh. A. Fucking. Laugh. With 18 months left on his contract, Dan Agger is worth at least double that on his worst day. Especially if Milan starts rolling in that filthy lucre from selling Kaka. Which is yet another reason I've been hesitant to believe these rumors.

Admittedly, I am furiously knocking on wood as I write this, and there seems a good chance it could come back to bite me. The owners rarely have two nickels to rub together (if they're even on speaking terms), Rick Parry's incompetent when it comes to transfers, and the rumors have picked up pace. Danish media are treating this as if it's going to happen.

If it's not just about money, the only thing I can think of is Agger and his agent are concerned by the hold-up over Rafa's new contract. Which, admittedly, frightens me more than anything.

For the upcoming week: I'll have the Everton preview up tomorrow, the usual match review after the fact, and a post with a bunch of book reviews sometime next week.