Liverpool 3-1 Zenit St Petersburg

3-3 on aggregate, Zenit win via away goals

Goals:
Hulk 19'
Suarez 28' 59'
Allen 43'

If it wasn't for individual errors…

That's this season's mantra. I can't decide whether it's a less irritating mantra than "how did you hit the woodwork again?" but neither's very reassuring.

So close, and yet so far. If only.

Liverpool's team selection was somewhat surprising, more a 4-3-3 than we've seen lately with Allen and Gerrard both ahead of Lucas and Henderson coming inside almost every time Liverpool attacked, which was clearly an attempt to keep possession in Zenit's half and to force Zenit's three midfielders deeper and deeper to remove the supply line for possible counter-attacks. And Liverpool dominated possession early on, but with moves often breaking down in the final third, as the front four or five were unsurprisingly unfamiliar with each other's movement.

Then, those stated fears were realized fairly early as Zenit opened the scoring on the break, through a catastrophic goal almost completely of Liverpool's own making. Zenit hoofed clear out of their defensive third, straight to Carragher just inside the Liverpool half. Hulk pressed quickly, as Zenit pressed fairly relentlessly throughout the match, but Carragher still had to opportunity to slam it back to Reina. Unfortunately, off balance, he barely made contact, incredibly similar to when Suarez forced Distin into the same error in last season's FA Cup semi-final. Like Suarez in that semi-final, Hulk made no mistake when one-on-one with Reina, slotting past the keeper before Reina could close the distance or Agger could recover. It was a rather disappointing way to mark what would end as Carragher's last European match, especially as "we all dream of a team of Carraghers" had been ringing around Anfield just before the goal.

Had Liverpool not conceded a horrific opener, Liverpool wouldn't have had an unsurmountable mountain to climb. But at least the concession prompted the proper response. It would have been all too easy for heads to drop as Liverpool needed four against the Russian champions after another near-unbelievable setback in a season that's seen far too many of them.

But not today.

Liverpool immediately got back on the front foot, once more pinning Zenit deep, with dangerous shots from Suarez and Henderson blocked. Agger, getting one of his rushes of blood to the head, immaculately bombed forward from defense, winning a free kick just outside the box after some surprisingly deft footwork. Which Suarez proceeded to hammer into the back of the net, aiding by Henderson creating space in the middle of Zenit's wall.

With Liverpool scoring just nine minutes after Zenit's opener, it was game back on. Liverpool camped in the opposition's half, winning free kick after free kick, corner after corner, but disappointed with each's delivery. Zenit continued to show its potential on the counter, with Danny chesting down and volleying inches wide after an early cross, followed quickly by Anyukov's shot from nowhere narrowly into the side-netting.

Liverpool needed to score before halftime to truly believe. Three goals in 45 minutes wasn't impossible, but two goals would make that mountain look much smaller. And then, just before halftime, Liverpool got that goal: a excellent move down the left between Henderson and Enrique featuring Henderson's one-touch throughball to the left-back at the byline, Enrique's cutback deflected to Allen, who saw his header saved but followed in to chip the rebound over a prone Malafeev. Game on.

Spaletti responded with two half-time changes, although both were somewhat forced. Lombaerts picked up a serious injury just before the interval, requiring Criscito to come on and Hubočan to shift to center-back. Danny may not have been 100% after picking up a knock last week, and was replaced by Fayzulin.

But the changes didn't blunt Liverpool. And Suarez continued to be at the epicenter, setting up a Downing shot that was blocked, then should have earned a penalty for handball on Hubočan, and then forced an excellent save from Malafeev with a toe-poke.

And then, in the 59th minute, he did this:



Despite getting the third, just one goal away from victory, Rodgers stuck with the substitutions lined up before the third goal: Shelvey and Assaidi (he lives!) for Henderson and Allen, going for all-out attack in the final half an hour. But the all-out attack didn't come.

Liverpool took 11 shots in the first hour, with six on target. In the final 30 minutes, in a game where Liverpool had to score just one more, Liverpool took just five more, only hitting the target once. To be fair, four of those were decent chances. One of the off-target shots was a narrowly-wide Suarez free kick which still forced a save from Malafeev, smartly pushed wide rather than into the mix for a potential rebound. Two minutes later, the Russian keeper made a phenomenal stop on Gerrard's awkward blast; I've still little idea how he got back into position to prevent yet another Stevie G special. The jerk. Shelvey charged onto a loose ball but could only fire into the side-netting, while Agger flicked a header from Liverpool's ninth corner wide.

That said, all of those chances came before the 80th minute, and bracketed another near-goal from Hulk after Zenit again pressed Liverpool – this time Agger – into a mistake in its own half, remarkably saved by Reina. The last throw of the dice, Sterling for Downing in the 84th couldn't change proceedings, as Zenit defended excellently, not allowing Liverpool to dice its way through the deep, resilient back-line, forcing them wide to attempt crosses. Which, as we painfully learned last season, Liverpool aren't very good at. And that was with Outstanding Header™ Andy Carroll in the side. But Zenit defended well for almost the entire match; it's no coincidence that two of Liverpool's three goals came from direct free kicks. Only Allen's strike featured the type of build-up play that's seen Liverpool thrive, and that wasn't one of Liverpool's seven created chances either because of the deflection on Enrique's cutback and the eventual goal coming from a rebound. I'll reiterate: 16 shots, but only seven chances created. None of them clear-cut.

So much good, but just not enough. Barely not enough. Liverpool's fight-back was massively impressive. Lucas and Enrique were superb, as was Gerrard in everything but set plays. Suarez scored two monumental free kicks; if Bale had scored one similar to his second, the entire British press corps would suffer from priapism for the next week.

Look, despite the disappointments, there are no scapegoats. Suarez may have been an irrepressible genius today, but don't forget that Liverpool are exiting this competition because of his wastefulness in the first leg as much as Carragher's error today. Rodgers' substitutions didn't work as planned, but his initial tactics helped Liverpool nearly dominate proceedings, including bringing back Allen, who scored what was almost the vital second.

I've usually little time for moral victories, but today is a moral victory. Liverpool are out of the Europa League, but not only is there clearly something to build on for the future – and this team will be even better with Sturridge and Coutinho in the side – the confidence displayed by continuing to fight regardless of the early setback is a mentality that Liverpool's lacked all too often during the failings over the last three or four seasons.

Now we need to see it during the last three months of the league campaign.

Liverpool v Zenit St Petersburg 02.21.13

Zenit lead 2-0 on aggregate

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Group Stage matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Udinese (a); 2-2 BSC Young Boys (h); 0-1 Anzhi (a); 1-0 Anzhi (h); 2-3 Udinese (h); 5-3 BSC Young Boys (a)
Zenit: 1-0 Milan (a); 2-2 Malaga (h); 0-1 Anderlecht (a); 1-0 Anderlecht (h); 2-3 MIlan (a); 0-3 Malaga (a) [Champions League]

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-0 Swansea (h); 0-2 Zenit (a); 0-2 West Brom (h)
Zenit: 2-0 Liverpool (h); 1-1 Anzhi (h); 1-0 Milan (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Shelvey 4; Downing, Suarez 2; Borini, Coates, Cole, Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Wisdom 1
Zenit: Danny, Hulk 2; Faizulin, Kerzhakov, Semak, Shirokov 1

Referee: Björn Kuipers (NED)

Kuipers has done two previous Liverpool matches, both in 2009-10: a 1-0 win at Debrecen in the Champions League (not the supposed match-fixing one) and a 4-1 win over Benfica in the Europa League quarterfinal – a match where Liverpool needed to overcome a 1-2 away leg deficit.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Gerrard Lucas
Downing Henderson Sterling
Suarez

Just once in Liverpool's history have they overturned a two-goal first leg deficit in European competition. Once. Against Auxerre in the second round of the 1991-92 UEFA Cup, winning 3-0 at Anfield after a 0-2 loss at the Stade de l'Abbe Deschamps.

One-goal deficits? That's happened. Quite often, in fact; most recently against both Lille and Benfica on the way to the Europa League semi-final in 2009-10.

Liverpool have lost a European first leg by two or more goals 10 previous times in its history. Nine of those first legs were away from home, the 10th was the last time that result's happened: against Chelsea in 2008-09, losing 1-3 at home before mounting a comeback at Stamford Bridge, scoring the first two goals but then conceding four in the second half in a 4-4 draw. Liverpool have won five of those 10 second legs, but either didn't score enough or conceded away goals, with two draws and three home losses.

Precedent is not helpful in this case.

That said, I'm not trying to bury the body before even checking for a pulse. But Liverpool have a hell of a hole to dig themselves out of.

Rodgers is 100% right. The first goal, especially if it comes early in the match, could make all the difference. It'll shift much of the pressure on Zenit, hopefully buckling under a Liverpool onslaught and Anfield's vocal fury.

However, concede, and it's the nail in the coffin. If Zenit get an away goal, Liverpool will need four. And in both Hulk and Semak's goals last week, we saw how dangerous Zenit can be on the break.

I'm curious to see just who's available for the fourth match in 11 days. Seven Liverpool players – Gerrard, Suarez, Downing, Carragher, Johnson, Enrique, and Reina – have all started the previous three.

You can write Gerrard, Suarez, and Reina's names on the team sheet now. Both Johnson and Enrique have had good and bad moments in the last few matches, but both are basically certainties as well, with Liverpool needing their abilities in attack and lacking for options. With Sturridge and Coutinho cup-tied and Borini injured again, Downing – who has started more matches than anyone else over the last two months – will also be needed. Which leaves Carragher as the only question. And it's not really a question with Skrtel struggling with a knee problem. It might be a question if Skrtel were fit, as I continue to worry about Carragher's recuperation after so many matches in quick succession and as the Slovakian did well in the previous leg, but – as with far too many other positions – it seems Liverpool don't really have a choice.

Otherwise, Henderson seems more likely than Shelvey, Suso, or Allen to play in the advanced midfield role, and Lucas will almost certainly feature as the deepest midfielder. The only alternative seems playing Henderson on the left again, more defensively solid than Sterling – as we saw in Zenit's second goal last week – with either of the other three listed attacking midfielder options playing centrally. But I reckon that's a much less likely alternative.

This guessed XI isn't very different from the sides which won 3-0 against Sunderland and QPR during the festive season. We know there are goals in it, or at least the potential for goals. But it also isn't very different from the side which struggled a week ago in Russia, with Lucas coming in for Allen and Agger for Skrtel. And unfortunately, as we're all well aware, Zenit is slightly stronger than those other two sides.

As in the previous leg and as against West Brom, there are two overriding concerns. The first, the more important, is Liverpool's attacking capabilities without Sturridge in the squad. If Liverpool – read: Suarez – take their chances, Liverpool could well shock Zenit. If they're wasteful, forced to press harder and harder in search of the needed goals, Zenit has the potential to decimate them on the break. Zenit's ability on the counter-attack, Spalletti's preferred method of attack, and Liverpool's frequent susceptibility to counter-attacks is the other concern.

I'd be surprised if Spalletti's XI deviated much from the one we saw last week. They've no new reported injuries, having played no matches in the meantime thanks to the Russian league's winter break, and having nullified Liverpool fairly effectively in St Petersburg. Danny hobbled off with a knock early in the second half, but trained during the week. Domenico Criscito is also back in the squad, recovered from a month-long calf injury, but Zenit might be better served by keeping the more-defensive Hubočan at left-back. Bruno Alves returns from a one-match suspension incurred for three yellows in the Champions League group stage, and could replace either Neto or Lombaerts (more likely the latter) at center-back. Midfielder Zyryanov will again miss out through injury.

Getting back into this tie will be a difficult task. Keeping Zenit from scoring once, if not more, will be just as difficult. Liverpool will need one of those often-referenced historic Anfield nights to stay in this competition, its only remaining chance at a trophy this season. And while no one's pretending that the Europa League's comparable to those Champions League matches we saw from 2004-2009, were Liverpool to come back to win this tie, it'd undoubtedly join the list of those cherished historic nights.

Liverpool 0-2 Zenit St Petersburg

Goals:
Hulk 69'
Semak 72'

Stop me if you've heard this one before.

Despite not playing to their full potential, Liverpool create and subsequently spurn multiple excellent chances. Little by little, Liverpool start to dominate the game. And then Liverpool concede against the run of play. And then quickly concede a second. And then pretty much fall apart and hardly threaten the opposition's goal for the rest of the match.

The only difference was Liverpool were lucky not to fall behind during the first quarter of the match, where only Reina's agility and awareness prevented an early Zenit goal. The Reina of the first 28 minutes was the Reina we'd missed, somehow parrying Kerzhakov's 2nd minute effort after a post-corner scramble, denying Hulk from distance in the 5th, then keeping two more efforts from the Brazilian out of his net around the midway point of the half. Time and time again, Zenit found space between the lines, taking advantage of Lucas' absence, running circles around both Allen and Gerrard.

But Liverpool had chances of their own. Unfortunately, as against West Brom, we got "bad Suarez." Or, at least, supremely wasteful Suarez. Countering after Zenit's first excellent chance, Suarez fired wide from Johnson's excellent ball over the top. He couldn't even get a shot off after intercepting a lazy Lombaerts pass deep in Zenit's half, rounding the keeper but losing the opportunity thanks to a heavy touch. And five minutes before halftime, Suarez missed the best of the bunch, a cheeky back heel from two yards out bafflingly wide of the near post after Sterling picked up then laid off Allen's deflected cross.

Liverpool were both direct and disjointed, but that seemed by design. At least the former quality; the latter was an effect of relying on long passes and counter-attacks through a frequently isolated Suarez. As expected, Liverpool knew they'd have to be both cagey to prevent Zenit from breaking through and direct to keep Zenit's midfielders from getting behind the ball, hoping to spring Suarez or Sterling on the counter. Which they should have done at least once. Liverpool's first half passing was subpar and Liverpool had an unusual lack of possession in the final third, but Liverpool were always going to have to adjust to Zenit in St Petersburg rather than vice versa. And Liverpool did improve after 30 minutes, plugging the holes in the dike which led to Zenit's early opportunities, mostly because Gerrard smartly held his position while Allen attempted to chase down Witsel and Shirokov coming forward from midfield. As Dan Kennett astutely noted at halftime, it was a lot like most of Liverpool's other Europa League matches so far this season in that it could easily have been 2-0 Zenit or just as easily 2-0 Liverpool.

Liverpool were even better after the interval, demonstrating some semblance of control, keeping possession. And actually getting shots on target. Well, shot. Johnson went coast to coast in the 49th minute, running by two defenders then nutmegging a third, but was unable to fully nutmeg the keeper, as Malafeev made just enough contact to deflect the shot wide. On the hour mark, bad Suarez reappeared, curling a shot inches wide of the far post after Downing's strong run across the top of the box.

And, because it's Liverpool, you just knew they'd concede once finally obtaining a foothold but still failing to take their chances. It was only a matter of time. This Liverpool side is nothing if not depressingly predictable.

The first came when Henderson was dispossessed by Denisov near the center circle, the holding midfielder cleverly choosing when and who to press then quickly laying off to Hulk, who charged forward and rifled an utterly unstoppable shot past Reina. It was the type of goal that's hard to complain about despite the mistakes leading up to it: a flawless, jaw-dropping strike that wouldn't have been saved with three keepers in the net. However, it's much easier to complain about the second.

Sterling had come inside, chasing the ball, trying to make something happen in Zenit's half even though Henderson and Suarez already had the position covered. Okay, it happens. Less forgivable was the fact that Sterling wandered aimlessly through the middle after being dispossessed for a good 20 seconds before tracking back; with Henderson and Suarez also still central, it left Liverpool's left flank open wider than a pervert's trenchcoat. And it goes without saying that Zenit were smart enough to take advantage, immediately spreading play wide to Anyukov, who had all the space in the world to play a deep cross. Skrtel's close marking ensured Kerzhakov couldn't make contact, but Johnson, caught ball-watching, switched completely off, allowing Semak to ghost in at the back post for a tap in. Infuriating, from start to finish.

And has become all too common, Liverpool rarely looked like responding after the set-back. Rodgers' surprising alteration, bringing on Lucas for Sterling despite the two-goal disadvantage, allowed Liverpool to send men forward more comfortably knowing the Brazilian safety blanket was in place, but the only time Liverpool tested Malafeev was on a set-play. Suarez finally put a shot on target from a free kick, but Malafeev parried just far enough so that Henderson was unable to make an immediate rebound, needing to lay off for Downing, whose tame shot was blocked. And that was the sum of Liverpool's "response." And now Liverpool are micrometers away from being eliminated from a third cup competition in the same week that its slim league hopes were dashed.

I've no complaints about Rodgers' team selection or tactics. The strong squad demonstrated the manager's intent, and we'd be reveling in those tactics had Suarez taken one of his four outstanding chances before Zenit scored. Unlike against West Brom, using Borini as a like-for-like replacement for Sturridge made little sense; Suarez as a #10 against Zenit's midfield would have been banging furiously on trouble's door then asking trouble could come out to play for a while. Liverpool would have gained little in attack, but lost much, much more in defensive solidity. However, I continue to have complaints about both Liverpool's mentality and Liverpool making the same mistakes over and over and over and over.

In the last three months, Liverpool have conceded in 12 of 19 matches. In 11 of those 12, they've conceded at least twice; only Mansfield tallied a single goal, and had they scored that single goal earlier than the 80th minute, odds are that they would have gotten a second given how those final ten minutes went.

For all intents and purposes, Liverpool's European campaign is now in a world of shit. Because of the same problems we've seen all season long.

Yes, stranger things have happened. But this is not 2005. Individually, on paper, Liverpool don't look that far off from the side that won in Istanbul – at least the strongest XI – but this team isn't even on the same planet, let alone ball park: less experienced, less balanced, more fragile, more naive.

In the next leg, Liverpool will have to press and press and attack and attack, and it's highly likely that in the process, Zenit will pull their pants down on the counter at least once. Not only are Liverpool prone to that at the best of times, but we saw just glimpses of how dangerous Hulk, Danny, and Kerzhakov can be. Now imagine those three are given additional space by Liverpool's dire need for goals.

Here's hoping that the script doesn't go according to form, to Liverpool's benefit, at least once this season. Unfortunately, having hope this season has been a dangerous proposition.

Liverpool at Zenit St Petersburg 02.14.13

12pm ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Group Stage matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Udinese (a); 2-2 BSC Young Boys (h); 0-1 Anzhi (a); 1-0 Anzhi (h); 2-3 Udinese (h); 5-3 BSC Young Boys (a)
Zenit: 1-0 Milan (a); 2-2 Malaga (h); 0-1 Anderlecht (a); 1-0 Anderlecht (h); 2-3 MIlan (a); 0-3 Malaga (a) [Champions League]

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 West Brom (h); 2-2 City (a); 2-2 Arsenal (a)
Zenit: 1-1 Anzhi (h); 1-0 Milan (a); 4-2 Spartak (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Shelvey 4; Downing, Suarez 2; Borini, Coates, Cole, Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Wisdom 1
Zenit: Danny 2; Faizulin, Hulk, Kerzhakov, Shirokov 1

Referee: Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP)

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Wisdom Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Lucas Allen
Sterling Henderson Borini
Suarez

Rodgers has named a strong squad, but will he name a strong XI?

With both their previous clubs still involved in this competition, Sturridge and Coutinho are ineligible. And I'd have to think that no matter how strong a side Rodgers would like, Gerrard, Agger, and Johnson – at the very least – will be left on the bench. Those three, more than any others, need to be protected, as we've been reminded all season long. It's dangerous to leave those two defenders out – Zenit's Danny would be the best player Wisdom has faced this season, while Agger remains Liverpool's best center-back, no matter those last ten minutes against West Brom. But the number of matches (and importance of those matches) this week demands some sacrifices on the altar of fitness.

However, both Lucas and Suarez may well start, something that didn't happen often in the group stages (at least in the case of Suarez; Lucas was injured), the latter more likely than the former. Liverpool's attacking options remain limited without Sturridge, as Monday's match so painfully proved, pretty much requiring the Uruguayan on from the beginning. And I suspect Suarez will be joined by Borini and Sterling. Downing's played in every match since being left on the bench against Southampton on December 1, 14 in a row, starting all of them except the FA Cup tie at Oldham; even Suarez and Gerrard haven't featured as often over that stretch.

Meanwhile, Liverpool will need Lucas' defensive capabilities in midfield, protection against Danny and Hulk's runs inside, Kerzhakov dropping deep from striker, and Zenit's fluid midfield three. He'll assuredly be joined by Allen, who's been overshadowed by Liverpool's other midfielders, and most likely Henderson. Zenit's shape – specifically that three-man midfield – suggests it'd be a bad idea to play Suarez as a #10, and Henderson will provide more and better running and work rate than either Shelvey or Suso.

Finally, tomorrow is a homecoming of sorts for Martin Skrtel, bought from Zenit in January 2008. If any opponent is likely to encourage a revitalization of form, it should be tomorrow's. He'll probably be joined in defense by Carragher, who's shown the ability to play twice in a matter of days when starting against both Arsenal and City, rather than Agger or Coates, as well as Enrique, who – like Suarez – pretty much has to start because of the paucity of alternatives. I still think Wisdom's more likely at right back because of Johnson's fitness concerns, but if any of Gerrard, Agger, or Johnson is to start, it's probably the right back because of the aforementioned problems that Danny causes.

Zenit are currently third in the Russian Premier League, three points behind Anzhi – a side Liverpool are both familiar with and were, honestly, better than in the Europa League – and five points behind CSKA Moscow. The Russian league went on winter break in mid-December, but Zenit have played a handful of friendlies over the last month, against Al-Hilal (W), Zamalak (L), Shakhtar Donestk (L), RNK Split (W), Gornik Zabrze (W), and BATE Borisov (L).

Zonal Marking's preview explains Zenit's tactics better than I'm able. Luciano Spalletti's side is flexible, but the Italian prefers a fairly orthodox, counter-attacking 4-3-3, quite similar to how Russia played in Euro 2012. Hulk and Danny playing off Kerhakov; Witsel and Shirokov ahead of the deeper-lying Denisov; and Anyukov, Bruno Alves, Lombaerts, and Hubočan in defense, with both fullbacks aiming to get forward, Anyukov more than Hubočan (who can play anywhere along the back four). Zenit's keeper, Vyacheslav Malafeev, was Russia's first-choice keeper until retiring from the national team after Euro 2012. New signing Neto, another Portuguese international, may replace Lombaerts in defense, while midfielder Zyryanov and full-back Criscito will be crucial absentees through injury. That'd be Spalletti's strongest available side, which I have to assume he'll deploy.

That Zenit thrive on the counter-attack presents a major concern for this Liverpool. We've all seen the side, no matter the personnel, rent asunder by lightning, fluid breaks. For once, tepid Liverpool possession without overcommitting players forward and without high pressing when losing the ball – facets we've often complained about – might be the best strategy. Patience and caginess will be the orders of the day.

Meanwhile, James Appell's preview for ITV, detailing Zenit's on- and off-the-pitch struggles makes me slightly more optimistic. The off-the-pitch struggles have been heavily noted: the fans group who demanded that Zenit not sign minorities or homosexuals; homegrown players such as Denisov, Kerzhakov, and Shirkov reacting poorly to the massive fees and contracts for Hulk and Witsel; and the ongoing, delayed construction of a new stadium, one which will probably end up the world's most expensive.

On the pitch, Zenit started the season slowly, knocked off balance by the eye-watering purchases of Hulk and Witsel, especially disappointing in the Champions League when failing to qualify from a group with AC Milan, Malaga, and Anderlecht. However, they've lost just once in the league since mid-September, a 3-0 defeat at Dinamo Moscow by forfeit when Dinamo's keeper was injured by a firecracker thrown from the Zenit fans, with 53 subsequently arrested. Once again, off-the-pitch issues dwarf those on it.

Also on the pitch, it'll be about -5º celsius, otherwise known as about 23ºF in civilized countries. Which is pretty damn cold, and something that Zenit will be used to that Liverpool won't, no matter how bad the weather's been in Britain or that Zenit's spent the majority of its winter break in U.A.E. and Turkey.

Liverpool's frustrating, disappointing performance against West Brom should at least provoke a response from this side; there have been some very bad matches this season, but they've almost always been followed by a good one, as after Villa, Stoke, Oldham over the last couple of months. Liverpool will need a very good one to beat the Russian champions in Russia in February, even considering the season they've had so far or their form going into the fixture.

Zenit in the Round of 16

Damn.

I reckon that Zenit St. Petersburg is one of the worst draws Liverpool could receive.

Not only is it another long, debilitating trip to Russia (I hear Russia is lovely in February!), but Zenit are an incredibly talented side. Or, at least, they've got an awful lot of incredibly talented players: Hulk, Danny, and Kerhakov in attack; Witsel, Shirokov, Denisov in midfield. Bruno Alves and Lombaerts are both outstanding center-backs, Malafeev a talented keeper, and Anyukov is Russia's starting right back.

Managed by Luciano Spalleti, formerly of Roma, Zenit play a 4-3-3 system – very similar to the 4-1-2-3 Rodgers has used since Lucas' return – but a system which thrives on the counter-attack. You know, the style of play that Liverpool's all-too-prone to conceding against.

There are a couple of positives. Zenit, like Liverpool, are often worse than the sum of their parts suggest they should be. They've only lost three league matches – against Rubin Kazan and Terek Gronzy at home and Dynamo Moscow away – but have drawn five (joint-most in the division) and were outgunned in its Champions League group, losing to Anderlecht and Malaga away, and AC Milan at home; they were the only side that Anderlecht beat in that group. A last day win at already-qualified AC Milan is the only reason the group looks close after the fact, but Zenit had little chance of progression after losing its first two fixtures.

Both Hulk and Witsel have struggled to settle, each costing €40m this summer, leading to this wonderful, tolerant, certainly-not-racist letter from a Zenit fans' group currently making the rounds. Hulk's decision-making often sucks, too frequently too greedy and selfish, but on his day, he's lightening quick, direct, and can score from anywhere – again, just the type of player who often punishes Liverpool. Danny's slow return to form and fitness following an eight-month layoff from February through September due to a cruciate injury should improve Zenit tremendously; he was the star player against Spartak and AC Milan before picking up a red card for dissent in the match against Anzhi last week.

The St. Petersburg club is currently third in the Russian League, three points behind Anzhi, a side Liverpool beat fairly easily – despite the 1-0 scoreline – when using a strong line-up at Anfield, and narrowly lost to in Russia with a vastly weaker squad. Zenit has faced Anzhi twice, home and away, and drew 1-1 both times. The transitive property suggests that Liverpool have an excellent chance to advance to the next round, but then again, the transitive property rarely if ever works in football.

Finally, Zenit will face Liverpool having spent two months without playing competitive football. That 1-1 draw against Anzhi on December 10 was the final fixture before the Russian Premier League's winter break; the league won't resume until early March. This happened the last time Liverpool were in the Europa League, facing Sparta Prague in the round of 16, who clearly felt the effects of the Czech League's three-month break. Of course, Liverpool were also poor, needing a late late late second leg goal from Kuyt to progress 1-0 on aggregate, but of course they did because Liverpool.

If Liverpool advance, they'll face the winner of the Basel-Dnipro tie, with the latter side both seeded and favored. We can complain about the next bridge after getting over the first, but the last thing Liverpool will need after a trip to Russia is one to the Ukraine.