Visualized: Liverpool 1-3 Sevilla

Previous Match Infographics: West Brom (a), Chelsea (h), Watford (h), Villarreal (h), Swansea (a), Villarreal (a),Newcastle (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Life is not fair. Sometimes there isn't a storytale ending.

Liverpool needed this. We needed this. And it's all set up perfectly.

The narrative's written. First, Manchester United. Then, that comeback against Dortmund. Then, a comprehensive victory over a similar, higher-in-the-table Spanish side in Villarreal. The overwhelming parallels with Liverpool's Champions League run in Benitez's first season 11 years ago.

Liverpool weather Sevilla's brief early storm. Liverpool are denied five potential penalties – three handballs, two fouls, a handball and foul on the same move in the 12th minute, the third handball seemingly stone-cold certain – but then Liverpool score one of the prettiest strikes you'll see, when Sturridge somehow breaks every one of Newton's laws of motion to score with the outside of his left foot in the 35th minute.

Sevilla had offered next-to-nothing after the first five-to-ten minutes of somewhat frightening possession with no results. Liverpool grew in control and confidence from then on. Sevilla took just one shot in the entire first half: Gamiero's overhead on a scrambled corner, covered by Mignolet if it was on-target at his near post. Liverpool should have made more of their dominance, should have created more chances – and it's not as if we're saying this for the first time this season – but between their control and the lead and the fact that the referee was the only thing keeping Sevilla in the game and THE NARRATIVE, it seemed as if Liverpool would be okay. Liverpool would continue to do good things in the second half, eventually get the second, and lift that much-needed trophy.

Whoops.

Ever heard the phrase "a game of two halves"? The Europa League final is like its platonic essence. pic.twitter.com/l7smD8mAfz

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) May 18, 2016

In the future, maybe don't concede 18 seconds after the restart.

It's hard to do more than scapegoat Alberto Moreno and ready the rocket to fire him into the sun. First, the weak clearing header to Mariano on Escudero's hopeful cross-field ball. Then, brainlessly charging in and trying to tackle rather getting into position to push Mariano wide or to the byline; he gave Mariano an angle rather than removing one, and reduced the amount of time Liverpool's other defenders had to get into position. He's got a record of doing similar over and over and over and etc.

To be slightly fairer, Moreno's not the only one at fault: Coutinho wandered into the middle on the kick-off, coming in to "track" N'Zonzi (who looking like coming forward but quickly retreated into his midfield position) rather than the right-back he should be up against, leaving Moreno to defend the entire side of his pitch when Escudero crossed; both Toure and Lovren were caught flat-footed on Mariano's centered pass, marking the same space which Can pretty much had covered; and at the last second, Toure tries to play the offside trap, which wouldn't have worked and he was the only one to do so. Sigh. And let's give credit where it's due: that was a lovely step inside and nutmeg by Mariano.

Most importantly, Liverpool still had 45 minutes to reassert themselves despite the set-back. There was still an entire half left.

Put simply – maybe too simply, but I doubt it – Liverpool lost their heads. "Oh shit, here we go again. And it's the final! Why, lord, why?!" Sevilla, who hadn't won this competition the last two seasons on blind luck, didn't lose theirs. They regrouped at halftime. They got the early goal and pushed for more. They got the needed bit of luck and combined it with an absolutely brilliant 25 minutes of football.



They broke Liverpool's lines, something they'd wholly failed to do in the first half. They beat and bypassed Liverpool's counter-press, most notably on the second goal. That was a thing of beauty. A bit of patience in their own half to draw Liverpool's attackers into the press then out of position, then Vitolo to Coke to Vitolo to Banega to Vitolo to Coke to smash through Liverpool's midfield. It was pass and move football that the all-conquering Liverpool side in the 1980s would've been proud of.

Sevilla should have scored a second long before then, with Liverpool given a short reprieve first by Toure's last-ditch recovery tackle in the 48th, then Mignolet's point-blank save on Gamiero in the 60th. The first with Can and the center-backs the only Liverpool players in Liverpool's half (and all three fairly high up the pitch) as Liverpool pressed too hard too fast to get back in the game and lost consecutive aerial duels in midfield, with Gamiero released by an easy throughball; the second from a set play (Escudero's long throw) because of course there has to be at least one set play involved.

And then there's Sevilla's third. A flawless, cue-Yakety-Sax, oh-so-Liverpool capstone six minutes after Coke gave Sevilla the lead: first, Can's slip and giveaway in midfield, then Clyne's tackle at the top of the box hitting Coutinho and ricocheting perfectly for a wide-open Coke seven yards from goal, onside because of Liverpool's touches, with Mignolet unable to do much about it. As many Liverpool players were involved in the build-up to that goal as Sevilla players.

You need that bit of luck in finals. And you need talent, which Sevilla simply had more of, fully on display in the 25 minutes after halftime. And you need self-belief, which seemed to completely evaporate after Sevilla's first goal.

The belief we saw against Dortmund simply wasn't there. Liverpool did not, could not regroup. Sure, Klopp probably should have made changes earlier (*glares at 2-3 Southampton and 2-2 Newcastle*), but you've got to credit Sevilla for a good bit of that.

Got interested in the age structure of @SevillaFC_ENG squad after reading about their scouting process @EuropaLeague pic.twitter.com/8dpQOkVBSC

— FitbaFancyStats (@226blog) May 18, 2016

.And here is @LFC for comparison @EuropaLeague pic.twitter.com/ln4N9l7dmn

— FitbaFancyStats (@226blog) May 18, 2016

Experience matters. Sevilla, and the majority of these players, had been here before. Have won things before. Five of Sevilla's starters also started last year's final, with three others involved as substitutes. Liverpool, the vast majority of these players, haven't. The first hill is always hardest to climb.

This is how far Liverpool still have to go. A young side, nowhere near built in the new manager's image yet. A new manager who came in midseason, had to work with this unbalanced squad, and had to cope with numerous injuries and more matches than any of his teams' have ever played in a single season.

Yes, Liverpool lost two cup finals. And it really hurts. You can't help but wonder what might have been: both the relief of rejoining the big kids' table and the doors that qualification to next season's Champions League could have opened.

But Liverpool hadn't been in a single cup final since 2011-12, when Dalglish's side won the Carling Cup against second-division Cardiff on penalties and lost in the FA Cup to Chelsea. Those are the only two cup finals Liverpool have been in since Athens 2007. Nine years ago. Since then, we've seen Hicks and Gillett's attempt to gut the club, Benitez coming close to in the league and Europa League then getting sacked, The Hodge, Dalglish, and Rodgers. We've seen league finishes of 2nd, 7th, 6th, 8th, 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 8th.

And Klopp somehow got Liverpool to two cup finals in his first abbreviated season.

There is still a lot of work to be done. A lot of room for growth, for players individually and Liverpool as both a team and a club. And it's going to be a very interesting summer; in Klopp's first at Dortmund, they brought in 11 players (six for a fee, two free transfers, Schmelzer promoted from the youth squad, Kevin Prince-Boateng on-loan, and Sahin's return from loan) and sold or released nine.

It's been less than 24 hours, and I've mostly processed this. Accepted this. Mostly. As much as I can, and as much as I will. And I don't want to eulogize this match or this season (although, as usual, there will probably be a lot of season wrap-up graphics and stuff over the next few weeks). I just want next season now. Optimism, which still remains despite this setback and this season, is a hell of a drug. It's one we've been without for far too long.

Up the Reds.

Liverpool v Sevilla 05.18.16

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 West Brom (a); 1-1 Chelsea (h); 2-0 Watford (h)
Sevilla: 1-3 Athletic Bilbao (a); 1-4 Granada (h); 3-1 Shakhtar (h)

Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Villarreal (h), 0-1 Villarreal (a); 4-3 Dortmund (h), 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Sevilla: 3-1 Shakhtar (h), 2-2 Shakhtar (a); 1-2 Athletic Bilbao (h), 2-1 Athletic Bilbao (a); 3-0 Basel (h), 0-0 Basel (a); 0-1 Molde (a), 3-0 Molde (h)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 3; Coutinho, Milner, Origi, Sturridge 2; Benteke, Can, Firmino, Ibe, Lovren, Sakho 1
Sevilla: Gamiero 8; Llorente 3; Banega, Kolodziejczak, Konoplyanka, Rami, Vitolo 2; Iborra, Mariano, Tremoulinas 1

Referee: Jonas Eriksson (SWE)

Coincidentally, the last time Liverpool saw Jonas Eriksson was the last time Liverpool were in Basel: a 0-1 loss in last year's Champions League group stage. No, that wasn't the match where Markovic was sent off.

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Toure Moreno
Milner Can
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

Gulp. Has it really been nine years since Liverpool were last in a European final? Deep breaths, deep breaths, deep breaths...

We're all but certain what Liverpool's side will look like. Nine of the XI are nailed-on starters. Origi's in the squad, but almost certainly only available as a substitute. The only question seems whether Henderson's actually ready to start, and if he is, whether he replaces Milner or Lallana. Either way, it should be 4-2-3-1, with Henderson and Can in midfield and either Lallana or Milner ostensibly on the right.

If Henderson does start, I suspect it's Lallana left out. Milner can press and cross from an "attacking right" position – he doesn't press as effectively as Lallana, he's not as dangerous with the ball, but he's arguably been more important to the attack this season – with Lallana better suited to be an attacking change coming off the bench. But I still think it's Henderson left on the bench, just because he's been out for a while and has struggled with injuries throughout the season. Trust the line-up which won 3-0 against Villarreal. Dance with the one that brung you.

Either way, I'd rather not see Liverpool in a 4-3-3. That way lies Firmino on the right. That way lies less attacking cohesion and a more defensive Liverpool. That way usually lies a less impressive Liverpool. League record be damned, Sevilla are a very good side, especially in this competition and especially on the counter-attack. But Liverpool have gotten to this point by playing their game, not by reacting to the opposition.

But we're still less certain which Liverpool we'll get. The more defensive (and, yes, often 4-3-3) Liverpool who twice drew 1-1 and once lost 0-1 away in the last three knockout rounds, or the more attacking Liverpool who won 2-0, 4-3, and 3-0 in the home legs? It won't be Anfield, but I suspect it'll still be a fairly partisan crowd. As it was in Istanbul 11 years ago, in Athens nine years ago.

Rise to the occasion. Play your game.

Meanwhile, Sevilla gave up on the league even more than Liverpool, finishing seventh, 12 points behind fourth-place Villarreal (they finished fifth in 2014-15, 16 points ahead of Villarreal). They won just one of their last nine league matches – a 2-0 derby win over Real Betis – drawing one and losing seven. Seven. They lost the last two (since qualifying for the EL final) by margins of 1-4 and 1-3, with vastly changed XIs. And like Liverpool, Sevilla haven't qualified for Europe next season due to their league failings, although they still have the chance to be in the Europa League even if they lose tomorrow by beating Barcelona in the Copa del Rey final.

Sevilla didn't win a single away match in La Liga this season – nine draws and ten losses – and won only one of their seven European away matches. Let's hope playing in Basel still feels like an away match for them.

Having not watched Sevilla often (read: pretty much at all) this season, my best guess at their XI is the same which won 3-1 over Shakhtar to advance to this final. Soria; Mariano, Rami, Carrico, Tremoulinas; Krychowiak, N'Zonzi; Coke, Banega, Vitolo; Gamiero. Coke is usually a right-back, but started in attack against Shakhtar; if Emery chooses a more orthodox winger, it'll probably be Konoplyanka, who's fit again after an injury worry but started on the bench against Shakhtar despite being fit for that match. Jose Antonio Reyes and Michael Krohn-Dehli are their only injury absences.

Sevilla's goals in the 3-1 win over Shakhtar seem a good demonstration of what they're capable of in attack. The first came from Gamiero's awareness, dispossessing a dawdling defender then running straight at goal. It wasn't a concerted press, although they'll do that at times, but just paying attention. The second, Krychowiak's through-ball for Gamiero, came just after halftime to deflate the opposition, less than two minutes after the restart, less than three minutes after Shakhtar had leveled the score. The third, Mariano from distance with Shakhtar's defenders backing off, a first-time strike before the defense could get into position, sealed the match.

Sevilla don't play a possession game – averaging slightly less than 50% in La Liga – but not every one of their goals is a lightning counter-attack or a set play, like Liverpool's last Spanish opponent. They don't score tons, especially in the league, but they've scored 14 through the eight knockout matches: three matches with three (all at home), two matches with two, one match with one, and two matches with none. But they score when it matters, as they did against Shakhtar. And Kevin Gamiero is at the heart of it.

Gamiero, with 28 goals in all competitions, has scored more than Liverpool's top two players combined (Coutinho and Sturridge, each with 12). He's scored as many Europa League goals as Lallana, Coutinho, and Sturridge combined, and Sevilla's only been in this competition since the Round of 32.

The only starter in the above guess at Sevilla's XI under 26 years old is the goalkeeper, 23-year-old David Soria (34-year-old Beto's the usual keeper in La Liga, but Soria's started all eight in this competition). Rami and Tremoulinas are 30; Mariano, Coke, and Gamiero are 29; Carrico, N'Zonzi (yes, that N'Zonzi), and Banega are 27; Krychowiak and Vitolo (and Konoplyanka) are 26. They're an experienced side. And the majority of them have been here before.

Long story short, Sevilla just win in this competition. They do *just enough* in the knockout rounds, and then perform in the finals. They're the title holders the last two years running, and no side has ever won three years in a row.

This will be Liverpool's 63rd match of the season. It'll be Sevilla's 62nd, with the Copa del Rey final to come on Sunday. It is the culmination of both sides' seasons. If they win, the season's a success, league results be damned and forgotten. If they don't, it's a failure, simple as.

So don't fail.

Visualized: Liverpool 3-0 Villarreal

Previous Match Infographics: Swansea (a), Villarreal (a),Newcastle (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

5' – Mignolet does incredibly well to save Mario's tricky deflected shot, the first shot of the match.
7' – Bruno can't get out of the way of Firmino's low cross which Sturridge missed, an unfortunate ricochet own goal to level the tie on aggregate.
46' – A wonderful last ditch block by Lovren on Bakumbu's counter-attack just after halftime.
77' – Denis Suarez's penalty shout, softly pushed by Moreno, is ignored. Had Villarreal gotten it and scored, they'd have taken the lead on away goals.
81' – The only reason Lallana wasn't offside was that Musacchio, embarrassed by Firmino, had one hand on the pitch. Not to mention Sturridge's scuffed shot falling directly to the goal-scorer. Or Firmino's 'was it a scuffed shot or a throughball?' falling directly to a just-onside Sturridge for Liverpool's second.

The narrative is that Liverpool were really good, and Liverpool won, and Liverpool deserved to win. Anfield was utter magic (incidentally, Liverpool haven't lost at home since January 26, 0-1 v Stoke in a cup tie that Liverpool won on penalties, 12 matches ago). Emre Can was a beast. The Lovrenaissance continues apace. Firmino was back to his squint-and-you-kinda-see-Luis-Suarez best. Klopp is a genius.

And those are good narratives! All those things are absolutely true! But football is still a game of fine margins and singular moments, and Liverpool came out on top of those fine margins. This could have been a very different game and/or result if just one of those aforementioned moments, or a couple of others, went the wrong way.

But they didn't.

Did the better team win? Yep. The better team over two legs? Yep. The better team throughout this competition? Yep. But you've watched enough Liverpool matches; I don't need to tell you that the "better team" doesn't always win.

If not for the red card – fully deserved, by the way – the above statistics are a bit closer. 11 of Liverpool's 25 shots, including three clear-cut chances and five on-target, came after Ruiz's dismissal. But, to be fair, Liverpool were already ahead by that point. Villarreal had a full complement of players for 70 minutes and took just six shots. Just four of them came after Bruno's own goal to level the scores on aggregate. They put just two of those six on target. They had just 40% possession.

They weren't good. Liverpool didn't let them be good, at either end of the pitch.

This sums it up nicely.

Rarely interested in heatmaps but Villarreal's is very telling: red hot in their own box, barely anything in ours pic.twitter.com/cgIgxr7Pxu

— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) May 6, 2016

But that's the way Villarreal tend to play. Concede possession, defend, counter at pace. Just as impressive as Liverpool's attacking performance was Liverpool's prevention of Villarreal's counter-attacks.

The vast majority of Liverpool's tackles and interceptions came in the middle third of the pitch – four successful tackles and four interceptions from Can, three successful tackles from Lovren, Moreno, and Lallana, three interceptions from Moreno and Milner. A moment in the 13th minute sticks out: Lovren's tackle on Bakumbu just past the halfway line. If Lovren misses, Villarreal are in on goal, three versus two. But Lovren dispossesses the dangerous striker with aplomb, and less than 10 seconds later, Lallana has a clear-cut chance at goal from Milner's throughball, skewing his shot narrowly wide. Or there's also when Lovren did *just enough* on Bakumbu's opportunity in the 45th, forcing a good chance to come from slightly wide and it's tame under pressure. Or in the 46th, when Lovren excellently blocked a similar effort to that which came just before the interval.

Most superlatives will focus on Liverpool's attackers – as happens when the side scores three, and especially because of the mind-bogglingly busy Firmino, at the epicenter of all three goals – as well as Can, not just available just two weeks after he was "probably out for the rest of the season" but massive in midfield, going forward and dropping back, the textbook definition of a box-to-box midfielder. But you can't forget the defense. You can't forget anyone. As against Dortmund, it was one of those matches where if you're rating players, absolutely everyone's at least a seven. But, yes, Lovren in defense, Can in midfield, and Firmino, Lallana, and Sturridge in attack were the stars on show.

Villarreal are averaging 12 shots allowed per match in La Liga. Liverpool took 15 last week, admittedly mostly not-great opportunities, and 25 (!!!) yesterday. Liverpool have taken more than 25 shots just four times in the league and Europa League this season 35 v Kazan, 28 v West Brom (sigh), 26 v Leicester, and 37 v Everton (lol). Leicester, below par that day, notwithstanding, the rest of those sides defend like Villarreal defend. Unlike in the previous leg, where eight of Liverpool's 15 shots came from outside the box (with just four in the Danger Zone), 15 of Liverpool's 25 shots came from inside the box, with 10 in the Danger Zone (including both of Liverpool's goals as well as the own goal).

In the three previous knockout rounds – 540 minutes against Napoli (second in Serie A), Bayer Leverkusen (third in the Bundesliga), and Sparta Prague (second in Czech Liga) – Villarreal allowed just three clear-cut chances. Three. Two in the 4-2 win at Sparta Prague, one v Napoli. Liverpool created five yesterday.

Liverpool still need to do better with their finishing – clear-cut chance or not – but creating good opportunities has also been an issue this season, especially in the league. Conversely, Villarreal has been excellent in limiting opponents' good opportunities. Neither was the case yesterday.

Shot creation? Excellent. Shot quantity? Excellent. Shot quality? Excellent. And this isn't the first time we've seen Liverpool at their best in the Europa League.



Woof.

Aside from Augsburg – and no offense meant – Liverpool have faced a slate of opponents fit for the Champions League. At least two of the last three opponents will be in that competition next season. United are fifth in the Premier League, Dortmund are comfortably second in the Bundesliga, and Villarreal are comfortably fourth in La Liga.

And, the-definition-of-miraculous comeback against Dortmund taken into account, Liverpool deserved to beat every one of them.

Once again, Liverpool rose to the occasion. Liverpool came damned close to its full potential when the lights were brightest and backs were against the wall. How often can we say that about the Liverpool sides we've seen for the last, say, nine years? You know, since Liverpool were last in a European semi-final. The domestic cup finals in 2011-12, a handful of big league matches in the second-half of 2013-14? That's about it.

Liverpool have now reached their second cup final in Klopp's seven months in charge, after failing to reach any since May 2012. That's nuts. Liverpool continue to frustrate in the league, Liverpool have been without different key players through injury at every stage of the campaign, Klopp has yet to add a single signing of his own to this disappointing-for-a-season-and-some-more squad, and Liverpool still have its second chance to lift a trophy this season.

Now it's up to Liverpool to surpass their performance in that last cup final.

Liverpool v Villarreal 05.05.16

Villarreal lead 1-0 on aggregate

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Swansea (a); 0-1 Villarreal (a); 2-2 Newcastle (h)
Villarreal: 2-0 Valencia (a); 1-0 Liverpool (h); 0-0 Real Sociedad (h)

Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 0-1 Villarreal (a); 4-3 Dortmund (h), 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Villarreal: 1-0 Villarreal (a); 4-2 Sparta Prague (a), 2-1 Sparta Prague (h); 0-0 Leverkusen (a), 2-0 Leverkusen (h); 1-1 Napoli (a), 1-0 Napoli (h); 3-3 Plzen (a); 1-0 Rapid Wien (h); 2-1 Dinamo Minsk (a); 4-0 Dinamo Minsk (h); 1-0 Plzen (h); 1-2 Rapid Wien (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, Origi 2; Benteke, Can, Firmino, Ibe, Lovren, Sakho, Sturridge 1
Villarreal: Bakambu 9; Bruno, Leo Baptistao, Soldado 2; Adrian, Bailly, Castillejo, dos Santos, Pina, Suarez 1

Referee: Viktor Kassai (HUN)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Toure Moreno
Milner Can
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

A European semi-final. Liverpool are behind, narrowly, on aggregate, but will be in front of a roaring Anfield. They have 90 minutes to make up the deficit, ideally scoring at least once, but preferably twice, without conceding against an incredibly-dangerous-on-the-counter Villarreal.

So, how do you want to play this?

Seems to me there are just two choices. Either try to do what you did in Villarreal – patient, controlled, primarily focused on stopping Villarreal, knowing you've got 90 minutes to get your goal – but, you know, better than last week, or go for the throat: make the opposition worry about you rather than worrying about them. A more secure 4-3-3 or a more attacking 4-2-3-1/4-4-2.

I can't emphasize how happy I am that Emre Can is back in squad, and I'm very much assuming "back in the squad" means "ready, willing, and able to start, just get out of his way," because Emre Can in the XI means Liverpool will be better in either of the above formations. Emre Can doesn't have the guile that Lucas does in his own half, but he's quicker, stronger, and taller, and he's undeniably more of a threat going forward, as long as going forward doesn't also leave massive gaps at the back. Yes, Emre Can.

But really, the question is "to Sturridge or not to Sturridge."

I am firmly in Camp "To Sturridge." He is Liverpool's best striker, he is Liverpool's best goal-scorer, and he is finally healthy. He can score from range, from inside the box, from headers. He scares defenders with his pace but can also hold play up to involve others. Those qualities, to me, outweigh any loss in Liverpool's pressing that you get when Firmino starts up front. We saw how dire Liverpool were in attack last week: crosses to no one, an inability to hold up play when punting out from the back, etc. Liverpool pressed quite well, which helped keep Villarreal from punishing Liverpool until the very last minute of the match, but Liverpool lost so much more in potential firepower.

If anything, there's a valid argument that Liverpool might need that potential firepower off the bench if the game's still tied – or, heaven forbid, Liverpool's behind – around the hour mark. Do what you did last week and ideally score this time, but if you don't, then Sturridge. Then the go for the throat. But (*gulp, sigh*) bringing on Benteke, giving Sturridge a battering ram strike partner, might well be enough of a positive change if Liverpool find itself in that situation.

If not to Sturridge, it'll be Allen: Can/Lucas behind Milner and Allen, with Coutinho, Lallana, Firmino up front. Liverpool will look to patiently control play, and try to create some chances, and I'm fearful they'll fail because Villarreal are very, very good at making you play wide, and in this formation with these players, Liverpool have no one to play into from wide unless Liverpool somehow create a magical, flowing, one-touch passing move or someone pulls an absolute rabbit from the hat. Which, you know, is possible, but I'd rather not solely rely on that.

Meanwhile, we know exactly what Villarreal will do. Defend, then counter at pace. Two exceptionally well-organized deep banks of four which will look to funnel Liverpool out to the flank and otherwise deny any space in the final third, then a fast break through the front four when Liverpool lose possession: the pace of Denis Suarez, dos Santos, and Bakumbu; the hold-up play and creativity of Soldado. Lather, rinse, repeat.

And I'll be surprised if Villarreal are much different from last week's side. Bailly picked up a groin injury in that match, and is doubtful, but that just means that the returning Musacchio (who came on as a substitute on Thursday and also started over the weekend) will keep his place. Otherwise, the same line-up in the same 4-4-2/4-4-1-1 formation. Asenjo; Mario, Musacchio, Ruiz, Costa; dos Santos, Pina, Bruno, Suarez; Soldado, Bakumbu.

Like Liverpool, Villarreal also made multiple changes for their weekend match, with Bakumbu, dos Santos, Bruno, Pina, Suarez, Costa, Mario, and Asenjo rested. But Villarreal, away from home against a decent eighth-place Valencia, still comfortably won 2-0 through goals from Samu and Adrian, sealing a place in next season's Champions League. I really hope the stats nerds are wrong and momentum's not really a thing. Because Villarreal, unbeaten in three, have a lot more momentum than winless-in-three Liverpool.

This is it. This is for a place in a European final, which would be Liverpool's first since 2007. This is why Liverpool have rested players for multiple league matches over the last month. This is for the season.

If Liverpool win, the frustration and failings have been worth it. If Liverpool lose, it's much more of a lost season: a necessary and sometimes-actually-good adaptation to the new manager's tactics and style, but stop-start and without a much-needed short-term reward.

And it's against a side that's more cohesive, coherent, and settled. One which is incredibly tough to beat, which hasn't conceded a single goal in its last three matches. But this is also a European semi-final involving Liverpool at Anfield. We've been here before. And we've every reason to believe anything's possible.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Villarreal

Previous Match Infographics: Newcastle (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)


As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Klopp: "We have to play brave football. We are now in the semi-finals. We got there because we deserved it." #LFC

— Viktor Fagerström (@ViktorFagerLFC) April 27, 2016

This is the danger of playing for 0-0. Until injury time, 0-0 looked the most likely score. Liverpool had mainly stopped Villarreal from its game, preventing counter-attacks, limiting set plays, limiting mistakes. Both sides had a couple of chances – just a couple – and an equal amount of "reasonable to almost good" ones despite Liverpool's total shot advantage.

Villarreal had a spell of pressure in the 21st leading to Pina shots saved and blocked, Bakumbu's set play header hit the post just after halftime, and Mignolet's excellent save on Bakumbu in the 87th. Allen spurned an excellent opporunity in the 5th, when a deflected cross found him in space on the penalty shot, but he shot straight at the keeper. Firmino had a Danger Zone shot saved onto the post in the 65th. Moreno tore down the length of the pitch after a Villarreal corner in the 88th but wildly missed at the near post.

For the most part, it was a damp squib of a match. Which isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world in a first leg away European match. But one mistake and you're doomed, and that's exactly what happened in injury time. Bruno dispossessed Lallana in Villarreal's defensive third with pretty much every Liverpool player caught up the pitch. Lallana failed in his press, Milner failed in his press, Moreno failed in his press, and then Lucas failed in his press. With Moreno out of position, Denis Suarez was one-on-one with Toure, able to out-pace the veteran for Bruno's ball over the top, Toure choosing to stay with the attacker rather than play for offside. Moreno, now somehow in the middle of pitch, couldn't keep up with Adrian, tap in. Credit where due: it was a really good move, especially between Suarez, Bruno, and Adrian to break through midfield. Still, Liverpool didn't need to make it easier for them. Game over, plan ruined.

I rarely criticize Jürgen Klopp's decisions. Every day I wake up amazed and pleased that he's somehow Liverpool's manager. And he's rarely given me moments to criticize. Liverpool were missing key players, Liverpool had defended well, Liverpool were away in a first-leg European semi-final. But I do not understand yesterday's mid-game management.

The starting XI was understandable, even if it's not what I would've chosen. A more defensive side, a side better suited to pressing, a three-man midfield to better able to prevent Villarreal's quick transition attacks. All perfectly valid choices, and the first half, the first 60 minutes, even the first 90 minutes until added time bore them out.

Klopp didn't miss Allen's 5th-minute chance or Moreno's 88th-minute chance. Klopp wasn't one of five or so players caught out of position on Villarreal's winner. But I'm a little annoyed at Liverpool's passivity in the starting XI and exceptionally annoyed at the substitutions, or lack thereof, in the final 30 or minutes. And I can't help but think back to Liverpool's last loss, at Southampton, where Klopp seemingly sat on his hands in the final 30 minutes rather than making changes to – in that case – solidify the midfield or defense, and Liverpool ended up conceding two late goals.

This time, it was Liverpool's attack which needed the boost, and it was only one late goal, but it's still a loss and still a massive regret. It doesn't happen often – those are the only two matches where I remember getting mad at the manager's in-game choices, and Liverpool have seen a lot of goals and better play from substitutes this season, much more than from the previous manager – but the losses always stick in the memory longer than the wins.

Most notably, you leave out Daniel Sturridge in the biggest game of the season, and you deliver that attacking performance. Preferring Origi is one thing, as both legs against Dortmund demonstrated. Preferring a struggling Roberto Firmino is another. In the two months between Arsenal at home in January and United away in the Europe League in March, Firmino scored eight and assisted on four. 14 matches, 1233 minutes, 12 combined goals and assists; an average of 0.88 goals+assists per 90 minutes. Since returning from injury three weeks ago, he's got one tap-in rebound goal and no assists in 459 over seven matches. Aside from his work-rate, he's not been good.

And it's especially galling when, as predicted, the vast majority of Liverpool's attacks came from the flanks because that's where Villarreal's exceptionally well-organized two banks of four forced you to go. Liverpool's attacks seemed to go something like Moreno cross, Milner's cross, Clyne's cross, Lallana's cross, Toure's punt from defense, Milner's cross. And Firmino probably isn't heading them in. Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, and Allen almost certainly aren't heading them in. Firmino's 5'11", Milner's 5'9", Lallana's 5'8", Coutinho's 5'7", and Allen's 5'6". Those was Liverpool's five players yesterday. Sturridge at least gives you a chance at those, with headed goals against Villa, Stoke, and Bournemouth this season. He's 6'2". And his hold-up play from hoofed balls out of defense, which Liverpool played an awful lot of, is vastly better than Firmino's as well. Is Firmino's pressing really more valuable than that?

Sure, I guess, if you really are insistent on a) keeping it 0-0 and b) maybe scoring from pressing or quick passing moves on the break. At least for the first hour. And that it was Ibe first off the bench wasn't that surprising either. He was replacing the ill Coutinho, it'd only been 45 minutes, and – in theory if not practice – his pace may be able to stretch Villarreal on counter-attacks or when Liverpool hoof the ball out from the back.

But to not bring Sturridge on at all? Really? With Benteke for Firmino in the 90th minute as they only other substitution, supposedly as extra protection on any set plays? It's another thing if Benteke's brought on earlier; I'd heavily disagree, because he's often bad at the football, but at least he's an actual target-man. But for extra defensive protection in the final minute, with Sturridge still sat in his warm-up clothes? That's almost insulting.

This is going to sound much ruder than I mean, but that's brave football? You've got to dance with what brung you.

That Villarreal got the narrow win is marginally deserved. Neither side attacked well, but Villarreal attacked better and smarter. Liverpool took 15 shots, but eight of them came from outside the box, with all eight from outside the box either off-target or blocked. Villarreal took nine shots, and six of the nine came from inside the box, with two of the three from outside the box on target. Only nine of Liverpool's shots came from key passes; eight of Villarreal's nine came from key passes. One attack was less frequent, but more coherent, and that's the side that scored and that's the side that won.

To be slightly fairer to Liverpool, overturning a 0-1 deficit at Anfield in a week's time is doable. One Liverpool goal means extra time and two mean a win, as long as Liverpool keep Villarreal – a dangerous counter-attacking side if given space, as we saw in the 92nd minute – from scoring. If Villarreal score, Liverpool will need at least three, but this is a Liverpool side that's scored 14 goals in its last four home matches.

Of course, Villarreal aren't Stoke or Everton or Newcastle. And they're certainly not Dortmund, which was a performance and result we'll rarely see in our lifetimes. Next Thursday, there will be 11 Villarreal players in their own half for 90 minutes at Anfield, determined to defend, defend, and defend some more, and then counter-attack when Liverpool push too far forward too quickly. Which is exactly what Liverpool's struggled against multiple times this season, especially at home. And which is exactly how Villarreal scored, and won, yesterday's game.

Play for the 0-0, and get burned. Make one mistake (or, more accurately, multiple little mistakes on one sequence), and get burned. Stop getting burned, Liverpool. Stop burning yourself, Liverpool.

Liverpool at Villarreal 04.28.16

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Newcastle (h); 4-0 Everton (h); 2-1 Bournemouth (a)
Villarreal: 0-0 Real Sociedad (h); 0-3 Real Madrid (a); 1-2 Rayo Vallecano (a)

Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 4-3 Dortmund (h), 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Villarreal: 4-2 Sparta Prague (a), 2-1 Sparta Prague (h); 0-0 Leverkusen (a), 2-0 Leverkusen (h); 1-1 Napoli (a), 1-0 Napoli (h); 3-3 Plzen (a); 1-0 Rapid Wien (h); 2-1 Dinamo Minsk (a); 4-0 Dinamo Minsk (h); 1-0 Plzen (h); 1-2 Rapid Wien (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, Origi 2; Benteke, Can, Firmino, Ibe, Lovren, Sakho, Sturridge 1
Villarreal: Bakambu 9; Bruno, Leo Baptistao, Soldado 2; Bailly, Castillejo, dos Santos, Pina, Suarez 1

Referee: Damir Skomina (SLO)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Toure Moreno
Lallana Milner Allen Coutinho
Firmino Sturridge

How's your week been?

Not great, Bob.

Henderson, Can, and Origi remain out through injury, Sakho's not contesting his failed drug test – which means at least a six-month ban, and more likely two years – and Liverpool are coming off a humiliating draw against probably-will-still-be-relegated Newcastle.

So it's a smashing time to play a Europa League semifinal against a team that hasn't lost in this competition since September.

Cleverer people than I – Sky Sports' Rob Palmer in the Echo and Anfield Index – have noted that Villarreal look an awful lot like Leicester if you squint hard enough. While they've not succeeded in the league to such a degree, they've been a surprisingly good side considering their underlying statistics: good in defense, not good up front, massively over-performing Expected Goals. But they've been comprehensively excellent in the Europa League.

In this analogy, Bakambu is Vardy, Soldado is Okazaki, Denis Suarez is Mahrez, Bruno Soriano is Kante, Rukavina and Mario Gaspar are both competent fullbacks who can get forward but are better in defense. But it's the playing style that's most similar: an orthodox, compact, deep 4-4-2; a reliance on quick transitions through interplay and fast passing rather than long ball; pressing from the front before settling into defensive positions; and one key player who scores the majority of their goals.

So what did Liverpool do against Leicester? And what could and should have Liverpool done better? In both matches against Leicester this season – 1-0 at home, 0-2 away – Liverpool matched Leicester's formation, basically a 4-4-1-1 in both meetings. Firmino playing off Origi then Benteke at home, with Lallana, Coutinho, Henderson, and Can in midfield; Liverpool were wasteful in attack (surprise!) but completely shut down Leicester and eventually got its goal through Firmino crossing to Benteke. Away from home, Liverpool's options were more limited, with Lallana playing off Firmino, Henderson and Milner "on the flanks," and Can and Lucas in central midfield. Liverpool were wasteful in attack (surprise!) but also didn't create enough, before falling behind to a wonder goal on the counter from Vardy – the defensive line too high and broken too easily – then quickly and somewhat unluckily conceding a second.

Which leads me to think that Liverpool will match Villarreal's formation, especially considering the dearth of available central midfielders; not only are Henderson and Can out, but Stewart's not in the Europa League squad. However, Liverpool may want to play more cautiously away from home in the first leg, more of a 4-3-3 with Allen, Lucas, and Milner behind Lallana, Coutinho, and either Firmino or Sturridge. Villarreal are dangerous in transition and dangerous through the middle, with Soldado dropping deep to create space and create chances for Bakumbu. Lucas can stay deep and drop into the defense when needed, while Allen and Milner get forward (and wide) to supplement the attacking line of three. But Lucas may also be preferred as Sakho's replacement, and I'm also not convinced that 4-3-3 attack will do enough to unsettle Villarreal. Away from home, in the first of two legs, Liverpool have to find a balance, and finding that balance isn't easy, especially considering the absences.

Regardless of personnel or formation, Liverpool must also take advantage of the flanks, not only through quick transitions of their own, but also as Villarreal often attempt to funnel the opposition's attacking play out wide. Moreno and Clyne will be crucial, especially the former, Liverpool's best crosser of the ball along with Milner. It might actually be helpful that Benteke's back, potentially able to come off the bench in the target-man role that Liverpool so infrequently use.

Meanwhile, Valencia's XI is likely to be Areola; Mario, Bailly, Ruiz, Rukavina; D Suarez, Trigueros, Bruno, Castillejo; Soldado, Bakambu. Both Sergio Asenjo and Mariano Barbosa have started in goal in this competition as well, but Areola's played the majority of matches lately. Jonathan dos Santos could be an option anywhere in midfield, starting matches on the flanks and in the middle lately. Center-back in Villarreal's only slightly concerning position, with both Musacchio and Jaume Costa out injured. Which is another reason I'd like to see Liverpool play with two up front, even if it makes the side slightly more vulnerable at the other end.

Villarreal haven't been in great form lately, winless in their last three games, scoring just once in their last three games. Rayo, despite for points to avoid relegation, out-battled Villarreal, the first goal through a rebound, conceding a quick equalizer, then getting a late winner from a cross and header in a cagey second half. Real Madrid out-possessed and outgunned Villarreal, dominating possession, not allowing Villarreal any counter-attack opportunities, and finished their own chances. And last weekend, Villarreal and Real Sociedad played out a fairly dire 0-0.

But some end-of-season malaise isn't unexpected. Villarreal are fourth – not solidly fourth, but four points and +17 goal difference clear of Celta Vigo. A drop in league form with eyes on a Europa League semifinal? That sounds vaguely familiar. Eking by Napoli, who were joint-favorites along with Dortmund at that point, was impressive, as was their dismissal of Bayer Leverkusen in the next round, before easily stomping Sparta Prague in the quarterfinals.

Cedric Bakumbu's an excellent example of Villarreal's league v European form. Their top scorer with 12 goals, he's averaging 0.59 goals per 90 in La Liga. Quite good, but not "good lord" good; Sturridge is averaging 0.90, Origi's averaging 0.68 with a lot fewer minutes, Benteke's averaging 0.49, Firmino's averaging 0.43. But Bakumbu's averaging 1.06 goals per 90 in the Europa League; with nine goals, he's got as many as Liverpool's entire likely XI tomorrow. That's "good lord" good.

For the questions about Villarreal's league position, they've definitely earned their continued participation in this competition.

But so have Liverpool, mediocre but unbeaten through the group stage and first knock-out round, then thwacking Manchester United before that comeback against the competition's then-clear favorites Dortmund. It's a surprise that both sides are here, but both sides definitely deserve to be here.

One side knows what it does, and does it well; settled, mainly injury-free, and consistent. The other is more versatile, able to change formation and style to suit both personnel available and opposition, but also more inconsistent, due to scattered injuries throughout the season and a continuing change in playing style after the midseason managerial change. When they're good, they're better than most. When they're bad, they concede two in the second half at home against Newcastle.

It's much, much easier said than done, but be good tomorrow, Liverpool. Despite the players absent, be what you've been so far in this competition.

Visualized: Liverpool 4-3 Borussia Dortmund

Nota Bene: In nearly 10 years of doing this blog thing, I've never posted about football on the Hillsborough Anniversary before. True, that's mainly because nothing lined up as this year has, but it also just doesn't feel right. Yet leaving the match infographic for tomorrow doesn't feel right either. I mean no offense, and truly don't want to take away from the Hillsborough remembrance – especially since it's the last year of the service at Anfield and the Hillsborough Inquests will soon come to a close, 27 years after the Disaster – but I also don't want to disappoint the few of you who come here to read my nonsense about the sport and team we support. So I thought a caveat was in order, as well as my heartfelt apologies to anyone who disagrees with my decision, and my heartfelt sympathy for anyone who lost friends or family in the Disaster, for anyone affected by the Disaster.

Justice for the 96.


Previous Match Infographics: Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


Football, eh?

It couldn't have started worse and it couldn't have finished better.

It was surprising to see Liverpool revert to the 4-2-3-1. Klopp spoke about how Liverpool needed to be brave in this fixture, and going for an extra attacker in the hopes of adding another goal early on was certainly brave.

And it was certainly the wrong decision. And Liverpool certainly paid for it, twice, within ten minutes.

They were two textbooks Dortmund counters: the first sprung by Coutinho's errant pass to Moreno, the second by three Dortmund players pressing Firmino after Milner's ill-advised pass to a covered teammate. And then they were off like lightning. That's what Dortmund can do to you, if given the slightest of openings. That's transition football. But Liverpool didn't need to help them along the way, both in the loss of possession, the vacating of midfield, and – to cap it all off – Sakho sitting so deep he played a Dortmund attacker onside for both.

It's right there in the Goal Events chalkboards. Liverpool give the ball away (or have it taken away, in the second instance) in Dortmund's half, Dortmund charge down the pitch, Kagawa and Reus have acres of space in the middle, Dortmund score. Liverpool were too casual in attack, unbalanced and open in midfield, and disjointed in defense. That's a recipe for a loss against most sides. It's a recipe for annihilation against Dortmund. This looked like it'd be annihilation.

Dortmund continued to have counter-attack chances – most notably, Aubameyang missed another clear-cut chance in the 36th minute; a one-two with Reus through Liverpool's inside-right channel – but Liverpool at least grew into the game. Liverpool kept pushing. Heads didn't drop. They still believed. Etc, etc.

But it was still Bad Liverpool. Liverpool responded with nine first half shots after going 0-2 down – which is more than the 6.64 per match that Dortmund's opponents had averaged in the Europa League since the start of the group stage – but four were off-target and five were blocked. Bad finishing as well as good opposition defending, with Dortmund allowed the opportunity to sit deep and block shots because of their early lead.

It was the Liverpool we saw at Watford and at West Ham more than four months ago, not the Liverpool we needed to see when hosting Borussia Dortmund in a Europa League quarterfinal.

Something had to change. You had to expect halftime substitutions as well as a response from Liverpool.

Surprisingly, we didn't get the former. But we did get the latter: finally, an example of Liverpool's transition football and both Emre Can and Divock Origi's potential: four quick one-touch passes through midfield (Can's exchangs with Milner then Firmino) before a perfectly-weighted throughball, Origi's strong run behind Sokratis and cool finish past Weidenfeller.

Game almost on.

Then game back off.

Unlike their usual modus operandi, Dortmund took the sting out of Liverpool's response with possession, making Liverpool chase the ball while controlling the clock. They maintained control for a full minute before finally pulling defenders out of position, Hummels' throughball to Reus catching Clyne at sea with Sakho playing the attacker onside for a third punishing time.

So now, Liverpool really did have to change things. Liverpool had to throw caution to the win, to go for broke, to use every single cliché in their toolbox.

  

There are a lot – A LOT – more variables here, yet I can't help but think "win the midfield, win the match." Dortmund tired, and Dortmund's pressing and counter-attacking became less potent, especially as Kagawa then Reus went off. But solidifying the midfield not only gave Liverpool more going forward, better able to unbalance Dortmund with Allen, Milner, and Can breaking the lines, but also more protection the few times that Dortmund countered.

Dortmund were always going to sit deeper, trying to retain their lead as time ran down, but Liverpool's change in structure gave the team a better platform for possession. And it directly resulted in Liverpool's second goal: Can and Allen prodding and poking, to draw defenders while other attackers look for space, until ultimately unlocking the defense through Coutinho: a one-two with Milner, an unerring shot from just outside the box. It was made not only by the Brazilian's accuracy, but Milner's clever run into an area vacated by Weigl's attempt to close down Coutinho. Castro couldn't get over in time, Hummels just could get out quick enough to block.

Game back on? Yeah, actually, game back on.

Liverpool kept pushing, Dortmund kept defending, but we needed two miracles for two more goals. Two set plays miracles from two scapegoat center-backs. Sakho, scoring his first goal for more than two years on Liverpool's 11th corner of the match, after barely creating anything from the first ten, with Coutinho's low delivery somehow missing both Sturridge and three Dortmund defenders at the near post before finding Sakho, in space because Lovren had picked off his marker. Consider amends made for his role in Dortmund's three.

And, in the first minute of injury time, an even more unlikely goal from an even more unlikely player on an even more unlikely dead ball routine.

Schmelzer had to unnecessarily foul Clyne deep on the right flank. Both Milner and Sturridge had to be aware enough to go for the pass down the flank rather than the usual hoofed cross into the box. Sturridge had to be onside, by about a foot. Reus had to be caught unaware for a single second, not quite quick enough to track the striker, and Sturridge still had to regain control after initially misplaying it. Aubameyang had to dawdle back, allowing Milner to charge into the box for Sturridge's layoff, and Milner had to somehow cross just before the byline after an initial heavy touch. And it had to be a inch-perfect cross on the run, to that exact spot at the back post, where Lovren out-jumped the substitute Ramos and actually hit the target just inside the post.

Un damn believable. Football, eh?

So while Liverpool did very good things and Liverpool responded, both players and manager, there's still all sorts of "how the hell did this happen?" involved.

Every single Liverpool shot of the final 15 minutes came from a set play: Clyne from very deep blocked, Sakho's goal, and Lovren's two errant attempts before an inconceivable winner. Which helps demonstrate that Dortmund didn't just roll over. That team can defend, but somehow Liverpool still had enough. By hook, crook, and luck. And that would be the Liverpool who are often terrible at defending set plays and don't convert enough of their own.

As was Dortmund's shot. Shot, not shots.

One. That's the total number of Borussia Dortmund shots in the final 30 minutes of both legs. Combined. And that one was Gündogan's 94th minute free kick yesterday, thankfully put a yard wide of the near post. 60 minutes of play. At Dortmund with the score level, then at Liverpool trying to protect a two-goal lead. And they couldn't manage a single open play shot.

In the final 30 minutes of the last three games: Dortmund took zero shots at Dortmund, Stoke took two shots at Anfield, and Dortmund took one shot at Anfield. Three shots over 90 combined minutes, in three very different matches, with each of them from outside the box and either off-target or blocked. In the first, Liverpool were desperately protecting a draw. In the second, Liverpool were coasting thanks to their two- then three-goal advantage. In the third, Liverpool were chasing the most unlikely of results, needing to throw players forward to erase a three-goal deficit.

That's Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool, ladies and gentlemen. And this is just the beginning.

First half xG map for Liverpool - Dortmund. The difference between getting in behind the defense and... not. pic.twitter.com/BZQFvCu1w2

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) April 14, 2016

xG map for Liverpool - Dortmund.

I do not believe what I just saw. pic.twitter.com/p2Z395Y93H

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) April 14, 2016

Make no mistake. Liverpool merited its victory yesterday and to win the tie. The defensive performance in the first leg, the attacking and defensive performances in the second half of the second leg.

Liverpool looked the fitter, more resilient side in both legs, and I'm not quite sure how. Klopp's training methods? The team's new-found belief? Yesterday's Anfield atmosphere? All of the above? Both teams have played a ton of matches this season; yesterday was Liverpool's 53rd and Dortmund's 49th. The likes of Sturridge, Origi, and Allen haven't played anywhere near as much as any of the Dortmund starters yesterday, but the likes of Can and Clyne have played more than all of them, while Milner and Moreno have played more than all but Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan. Both sides should have demonstrably tired, not just Dortmund.

Maybe it was just all down to Joe Allen. With Allen on the pitch – in 73 of 180 minutes, as a substitute in both legs – Liverpool controlled the midfield, out-shot Dortmund 16-5, and out-scored Dortmund 3-1 (the one, of course, from a set play). All hail our Welsh savior.

When all's said and done, over 180 minutes, Liverpool were the better side. Narrowly. By the slimmest of margins. But better. Now that's unbelievable.

This is only Dortmund's sixth loss of the season, and it's their first since December 19th, a 1-2 defeat at FC Köln just before the Bundesliga winter break.

This is only the second time that Dortmund have conceded four or more goals this season, along with the 1-5 loss at soon-to-be-fourth-successive-Bundesliga-winners Bayern Munich. They'd only conceded three or more three times: that Bayern match, a 4-3 win at Odds Ballklubb in EL qualifying with the season barely started, and a 1-3 loss at Hamburg back in November. Just three times, and the last times was in November.

This is only the second time that Dortmund's opponents have taken 20 or more shots in a match this season. The other was Dortmund's 2-1 win at Wolfsburg, where Wolfsburg fired from any and all angles in an attempt to come back from Reus' first-half goal. No side had taken more than 13 against Dortmund in the Europa League this season, and that was Liverpool in the first leg.

And this is the first time this season that Dortmund scored three or more goals and didn't win. Not even draw, but win. 22 matches with three or more Dortmund goals in all competitions, and 22 Dortmund wins. Until yesterday.

The magic is back. European nights at Anfield are back. Improbable, near-impossible comebacks are back. Heart attacks are back. Belief is back.

We're all aware this team still has multiple flaws and a vast amount of room for improvement. But this team is also a hell of a lot better than it was a year ago, than it was six months ago, and that's mainly because of the manager: both for his cult of personality giving the players added confidence as well as the increasingly clever in-game tactical changes. The decision to start with a 4-2-3-1 almost cost Liverpool, but Liverpool still believed, and the second half changes certainly changed Liverpool.

Most importantly, football is fun again.

Liverpool v Borussia Dortmund 04.14.16

1-1 on aggregate (Liverpool lead on away goals)

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-1 Stoke (h); 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 Tottenham (h)
Dortmund: 2-2 Schalke (a); 1-1 Liverpool (h); 3-2 Werder Bremen (h)

Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Dortmund: 1-1 Liverpool (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a), 3-0 Tottenham (h); 1-0 Porto (a), 2-0 Porto (h); 0-1 PAOK (h); 0-1 Krasnodar (a); 4-0 Qabala (h); 3-1 Qabala (a); 1-1 PAOK (a); 2-1 Krasnodar (h); 7-2 Odd (h); 3-4 Odd (a); 5-0 Wolfsberger (h); 1-0 Wolfsberger (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana, Milner 2; Benteke, Can, Coutinho, Firmino, Ibe, Origi, Sturridge 1
Dortmund: Aubameyang 10; Reus 8; Mkhitaryan 6; Kagawa 3; Castro, Ginter, Gündogan, Hoffman, Hummels, Park, Piszczek 1

Referee: Cüneyt Çakır (TUR)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Allen Can Milner
Lallana Origi Coutinho

Once more into the breach, dear friends. Do what you did last week, but a little bit better at both ends, and Liverpool will have an excellent chance of qualifying for its first European semifinals in six years.

Maybe Sturridge starts up front instead of Origi, with Liverpool likely to have marginally more possession than they did in Dortmund. Maybe Firmino comes back into the side, either at the expense of Lallana or the third central midfielder. Maybe both Sturridge and Origi start up top, with Liverpool capable of playing with a midfield diamond or an orthodox 4-4-2.

But I suspect it'll be the same as a week ago, Allen replacing the injured Henderson the only change to the starting XI. Despite the different venue, despite the magic of European nights at Anfield and the difference that atmosphere can make, I suspect this match will look a lot like last week's. Dortmund will have the ball, Dortmund will attack. Liverpool will press, Liverpool will counter, but, primarily, Liverpool will defend.

And Liverpool will need to defend. It won't be the only priority, but keeping a clean sheet means Liverpool win the tie and Liverpool will advance to the semi-finals. But, of course, you can't just go Full Pulis and focus solely on keeping a clean sheet, pinned back for 90 consecutive minutes, because you will undoubtedly tire and Dortmund will almost certainly score.

Liverpool have focused on defense throughout this competition, but not just on defense. I've frequently mentioned that Liverpool haven't allowed an open play goal in the last 795 minutes of European football, since 15 minutes into Klopp's first match, but Liverpool have also scored at least once in nine of the 11 Europa League matches this season, the dead rubber 0-0 at Sion and 0-0 first leg at Augsburg the only exceptions. It's usually just once, 2-1 v Bordeaux and 2-0 v United the only matches where Liverpool have scored more than once, but once would be a good start tomorrow.

That, as much as Liverpool's defense since Klopp became manager, is the reason that Liverpool remain the only unbeaten side left in this competition.

But it still seems clear that what goes on in Liverpool's half of the field will decide tomorrow's result. What will Dortmund do and how can Liverpool stop it, as they almost totally did in Dortmund a week ago. Dortmund's away record in all competitions this season is 17W-4D-4L. More importantly, they've been held scoreless just in two of 25 away matches this season: a 0-1 loss at Krasnodar in the group stage with Dortmund already qualified for the knockout rounds and a 0-0 draw at third-place Hertha Berlin two months ago. That's it. They're averaging 1.96 goals per away match this season, and looking at their group of attackers, it's not hard to see why.

Dortmund are better at home, where they've drawn just three and lost just once this season, averaging 3.04 goals per game. And Liverpool held them to just one, coming away with an important draw. But with that attack, they can score anywhere, against anyone. As Liverpool learned, they press effectively, transition quickly, and are dangerous on set plays. It will take a hell of an effort to keep them out: disciplined defensively and positionally intelligent; hunting in packs in both halves of the pitch, but also quickly recovering if the press doesn't work to get back into two solid bands in their own half.

Like Liverpool, Dortmund rested the majority of its Europa League side in the weekend match, a 2-2 away draw with Schalke in the Ruhr Derby. Only Hummels, Bender, and Durm started both matches, with Aubameyang, Mkhitaryan, and Gündogan used as substitutes.

Gündogan's return is incredibly important for Dortmund, a more vital midfield metronome than the impressive Weigl and Sahin. If Gündogan comes back into the side, who makes way? Weigl, the most similar player in last week's starting XI? Castro, the other midfielder, who played a more advanced role in the second half when Sahin came in? Durm, who Sahin replaced at halftime?

My suspicion is Durm, with Gündogan in the role that Sahin played in the second half and Castro again further forward. But, again, it's not as if Dortmund don't have options. Kagawa rather than Castro (or Durm). Bender keeping his place in defense. A 3-4-3 curveball, as they did against Bayern Munich last month and Schalke on Sunday. But the probable XI remains Weidenfeller; Piszczek, Sokratis, Hummels, Schmelzer; Weigl, Gündogan; Mkhitaryan, Castro, Reus; Aubameyang.

As terrifying a match-up as it still is, even with Liverpool's narrow away goal lead, this is the type of match that Liverpool need to be playing. The type of match that Liverpool weren't playing enough under the previous manager. A potentially season-defining fixture. A European night at Anfield. Everything to play for. Against one of the top-five teams in Europe, one which happens to be the new manager's previous club.

This is what sport is supposed to be about. Make the most of it.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Borussia Dortmund


Previous Match Infographics: Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Like Liverpool's weekend fixture, it was a match that Liverpool could and probably should have won.

Like Liverpool's weekend fixture, it's a result that still encourages much more than it annoys, and even more so given venue, competition, and opposition.

Dortmund at home this season: - P 22 W 19 D 2 L 1 F 69 A 16. Only game lost - a 'dead rubber' against PAOK in Europa League.

— Ged Rea (@ged0407) April 6, 2016

Dortmund are unbeaten since returning from Germany's winter break, with 14 wins and just two draws – 0-0s against first-place Bayern Munich and at third-place Hertha Berlin – since January 19. They'd kept a clean sheet in 10 of those 16, including six of the eight in Dortmund, with Hoffenheim scoring once (before Dortmund came back to win 3-1) and Werder scoring twice (before Dortmund came back to win 3-2).

Dortmund scored at least two goals in 11 of those 16 matches, including five in two matches against Tottenham (Liverpool scored once and conceded once in 180 minutes against Tottenham), and three at Augsburg (Liverpool failed to score at Augsburg, with one goal in 180 minutes while holding Augsburg scoreless).

It hasn't been updated since March 20 (there's been one league game since), but by Michael Caley's Expected Goals metric, there are only two teams with a higher xG total than Borussia Dortmund in the four major European leagues: Barcelona and Real Madrid. [La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga] [Premier League]

Aside from Dortmund's first half threat, usually requiring crucial intervention from Sakho and Lovren, with key blocks on Mkhitaryan and Aubameyang respectively, Liverpool did exceptionally well to smother the home side. Dortmund's best two chances – Hummels' goal and Reus' injury time close-range clear-cut chance when Liverpool failed to clear – came from corners.

Dortmund had chances, took 16 shots in total. And only four teams have taken more than 16 shots against Klopp's Liverpool: Manchester City in the 120-minute League Cup final (20), West Ham (18), Tottenham (18), and Manchester United in the away Europa League match (17). Liverpool forced Dortmund to take 10 of their 16 shots from outside the box (three on, two off, five blocked). Through Dortmund's 28 league matches, they'd taken 65.4% of their total shots from inside the box (285 of 436).

And most notably, Dortmund's last shot of the match came in the 59th minute. 16 shots through 59 minutes. Zero shots for the final 30 minutes. There was more than half an hour remaining. You're at home. You want at least one more goal to diminish the opposition's away goal advantage. And you can't even get off a shot: not a speculative blast from distance, not a set play opportunity. Good lord.

Over the course of those 30 minutes, Liverpool used three different formations. First, the same 4-3-3 as the first half, with Allen a straight replacement for Henderson. Then, a switch to 4-1-4-1, with Milner wide and Lallana and Allen usually, nominally ahead of Can. Then, after Firmino and Sturridge came on, an orthodox 4-4-2. And Dortmund couldn't penetrate any of them.

Regardless of formation, Liverpool's midfield mostly held its shape (looking at Can and Milner going missing a couple of times in the first half, when charging out to press, but only a couple). Liverpool's fullbacks focused on defense, especially Clyne keeping the dangerous Reus quiet. Liverpool mostly denied Mkhitaryan space centrally. And when Liverpool lost players in open play, Sakho or Lovren were there to make the necessary stop. It was a complete team effort, and, again, aside from a solitary set play, Liverpool impressively succeeded.

Over those final 30 minutes, Liverpool only took one shot of their own, Clyne from wide, just inside the box, swiftly blocked. One shot, for either side, in the last half hour of a contentious, vital Europa League quarterfinal. And I'm admittedly biased, but it wasn't a dire, ugly, Allardyce versus Pulis match either. That's strangling the absolute life out of a game. That's a serious Klopping.

We've had our issues – set plays, individual errors, late goals, conceding after taking a lead; you remember Southampton away, etc. – but this can be, and surprisingly often is, a damned good defense. Especially when Liverpool sit deep and focus on defense, conservative but smothering, but even, at times, when Liverpool open up a bit more.

Liverpool's last open play goal conceded in the Europa League came against Rubin Kazan on October 22. In the 15th minute of that match. That was Klopp's second match at Liverpool. That was 795 minutes of European football ago.

Liverpool limited to Dortmund to two clear-cut chances – the aforementioned Hummels' free header goal and Reus from an uncleared corner. Both from set plays, one scored, one saved. But, because Liverpool, neither of their big chances were taken: Lovren's free header in the 21st minute and Origi denied by Weidenfeller one-v-one just before halftime.

And that's why, for all the praise due to Liverpool's defense, Liverpool are leaving Germany with just a slender away goal advantage rather than an out-and-out lead. Lovren's header, Origi's one-v-one, Coutinho twice denied by Weidenfeller in the 51st and 52nd minutes, Clyne's excellent shot from distance palmed away during the same spell.

We've been here before. Liverpool unable to convert good chances, to convert clear-cut chances. I've banged on and on and on about "clear-cut chances" this season, but we've yet more evidence of the issue. Yes, it's a subjective metric, up the game statistician to decide when an attack "should" score. And it hasn't yet hurt Liverpool in this competition. But Liverpool have now converted just three of 22 non-penalty clear-cut chances in the Europa League this season. Three. Of 22.

And yet, somehow, Liverpool remain unbeaten in this competition. Probably has something to do with Liverpool conceding just six goals in this competition's 11 matches.

At least Liverpool got one goal. That's better than we'd assumed, and gives Liverpool a surprising, if marginal, advantage going into next week's home leg. But it could, and it should, have been even more, even better.

And, sadly, that's the story of Liverpool's season so far. Narrow margins and opportunities untaken. But they've a chance to write a different story in a week's time.