1:00pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Hearts (h), 1-0 Hearts (a); 3-0 Gomel (h), 1-0 Gomel (a)
Young Boys: 0-2 Midtjylland (h), 3-0 Midtjylland (a); 3-0 Kalmar (h), 0-1 Kalmar (a); 0-1 Zimbru (a), 1-0 Zimbru (h)
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Sunderland (a); 0-2 Arsenal (h); 1-1 Hearts (h)
Young Boys: 5-1 Wettswil-Bonstetten (a); 2-1 Lucerne (a); 0-2 Midtjylland (h)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Borini, Downing, Gerrard, Johnson, Suarez 1
Young Boys: Bobadilla 2; Costanzo, Farnerud, Frey, Mayuka, Raimondi 1
Referee: Michael Koukoulakis (GRE)
Guess at a line-up
Jones
Flanagan Coates Carragher Enrique
Henderson Şahin
Downing Suso Assaidi
Morgan
Simply put, most who'll be involved on Sunday against Manchester United should not be involved tomorrow.
Which appears to be the case, according to the Liverpool Echo. Gerrard, Suarez, Johnson, Kelly, Skrtel, Agger, Allen, and Reina are all staying in Liverpool, with Pacheco, Suso, Yesil, Morgan, Wisdom, Coady, Flanagan and Robinson in the traveling party, if not the squad.
However, unmentioned are at least two first-team players who should play, even if they're scheduled to start against United on Sunday. Both Enrique and Şahin need match fitness, Enrique to recover from his long-standing knee problem, Şahin to get back in the habit of playing regularly and adjust to his role in the Liverpool system. Both could feature against United if they play well tomorrow.
We could also see Borini, Downing, Shelvey, and Sterling. I truly hope Sterling will remain planted firmly on the bench, for all the burn-out reasons we've mentioned over and over. Shelvey's in a similar situation, ideally rested, which would give either Suso or Pacheco a chance in the attacking midfield role. But Downing's likely to start on the right, while Borini could do with further match practice as well. Opening day against West Brom was the only league match where the Italian lasted the full 90 minutes; he only played 54 and 64 minutes in the last two fixtures, notably misfiring in both – although his efforts against Sunderland suggest he's getting closer to finding form. As much as Liverpool need to bring more young players through due to the lack of squad depth, I'd still rather Borini start instead of Adam Morgan or Samed Yesil. Rodgers' highlighted Yesil, saying "Yesil will certainly be fast-tracked. He will be involved in the Europa League game." Whether that involvement means he'll play or just that he'll be involved in the squad remains to be seen; if Borini doesn't start, Morgan seems more likely because he's started a senior match before.
With Skrtel and Agger missing, Carragher and Coates appear definite starters in central defense. Flanagan's also fairly certain with both Kelly and Johnson back on Merseyside. Finally, we should finally seem Oussama Assaidi make his debut, fit from the injury that has kept him out until now and available for the Europa League group stage after sitting out qualifying. More than any other, I've high hopes for the Moroccan; Liverpool badly need another wide forward/winger to step up so Liverpool aren't wholly reliant on the likes of Sterling and Borini.
BSC Young Boys are eight matches in the Swiss Super League season, which began in mid-July, winning three, drawing three, and losing two, currently fifth out of ten teams. They haven't finished lower than third since 2006-07.
Liverpool assistant manager Colin Pascoe says Young Boys play 4-3-3, while Football-Lineups.com has Young Boys using a 4-1-4-1 in the last 10 fixtures. The vagaries of modern formation notation.
The starting XI in its last league match, on September 2 at Lucerne, was Wölfli; Zverotic, Nef, Veskovac, Lecjaks; Spycher; Gonzalez, Costanzo, Farnerud, Scheneuwly; Bobadilla. Argentinean Raul Bobadilla is Young Boys' top scorer in both league and Europa League qualifying, joining the club in the January transfer window. Christoph Spycher's been around forever, a Swiss international from 2003-2010, able to play at full-back or as a defensive midfielder. England fans may remember defender Elsad Zverotic, who scored in last year's final Euro 2012 qualifier against Montenegro, a 2-2 draw (that was where Rooney kicked a Montenegrin player, getting himself suspended for the first two matches of the Euros). Young Boys recently sold the player I'm most familiar with – Emmanuel Mayuka, star of Zambia's African Cup of Nations win last year – to Southampton. Honestly, the only time I've seen the club play was when they faced Tottenham in Champions League qualifying in August 2010; chances are only 4 or 5 players who played then are likely to feature: Wölfli, Spycher, Constanzo, Schneuwly, and Swiss-English right-back Scott Sutter (who'll probably be kept out of the side by Zverotic). Yes. I realize this is even less helpful than my "scouting reports" for Gomel or Hearts. Such are the dangers of Europa League opposition.
Regardless of Liverpool's current struggles, this will be one of BSC Young Boys' biggest matches of the season, if not the biggest. Unlike in the league – for the last two or three years now – Liverpool's name still inspires awe in European competition. Awe, but not terror, evident in the matches against Gomel and Hearts, where both looked to get at Liverpool, especially in the home legs. Liverpool are a vulnerable giant, and – no slight intended – players can make a name for themselves by putting another Lilliputian arrow in Gulliver's back. No matter the personnel used, this competition is the first chance for the club to begin rebuilding its reputation on the continental stage. And developing the young players who'll add depth to Liverpool's shallow squad is more important.
19 September 2012
17 September 2012
How Does Your Sterling Grow?
"I said when I first came here, I won't judge people on their status or what they've done, it's about what I see now in front of me, and [Sterling's] a young player who's improved every single day since I came in here."
"He was a player who played on his own, in the one v one. You look at him now, playing for the team, his tactical understanding playing against a really experienced player. He was blocking the line of pass, he was pressing at the right time, he was coming back to block the lines inside."
– Brendan Rodgers after the Manchester City match
Passes
Sunderland: 33/35 (94%) [most accurate in the side]
Arsenal: 27/31 (87%)
City: 24/30 (80%)
Attacking Third
Sunderland: 16/16 (100%) [most accurate in the side]
Arsenal: 17/20 (85%)
City: 13/16 (81%)
Passes Received
Sunderland: 48
Arsenal: 40
City: 34
Shots
Sunderland: 2 (1 off-target, 1 blocked)
Arsenal: 1 (off-target)
City: 0
Chances Created
Sunderland: 4 [joint most created in the side]
Arsenal: 1
City: 2
Take-ons
Sunderland: 5/11 [joint most successful take-ons in the side]
Arsenal: 3/6
City: 0/1
Tackles
Sunderland: 5/5 [most successful tackles in the side]
Arsenal: 2/2
City: 1/2
Fouls Suffered
Sunderland: 7
Arsenal: 1
City: 1
Admittedly, Sunderland were weaker opposition than either City or Arsenal, even if the result doesn't necessarily show it. Regardless, that Sterling's output has improved in each successive start can't be overlooked.
Each link goes to the StatsZone chalkboard for that match, but I embedded the images for the categories I thought most relevant. His passes show he was more involved in the build-up, coming inside more often even though he was a right-footer playing on the right. Similar goes for the 'passes received' category, coming inside and deeper to make himself more available but also stretching play by getting the ball near the penalty box more often. He attempted and completed far more take-ons than in his two previous league starts, more of which took place directly outside the penalty box. And his tackles chalkboard against Sunderland is massively impressive for a winger, in his own half and the opposition's, let alone a 17-year-old winger.
Everything Noel wrote two weeks ago still applies. He is too young to start every single game without risking his future, too young to be relied upon in match after match. However, his improvement in each match has been demonstrable, important, and demonstrably important. He's gotten better in almost every statistical category from City to Arsenal to Sunderland.
He's come a long way from "There are very few players in the world who get into a Premier League team at 17, never mind a top club. [Sterling] has certainly shown qualities and we'll decide over the next few weeks whether he stays and he's involved now or if he goes for a loan period." Which was said by Rodgers in mid-July, just before Liverpool's first preseason match.
On Saturday, Sterling was Liverpool's most accurate passer, overall and in the final third, and made the most successful tackles (both Gerrard and Kelly attempted more, but each had four successful). He and Suarez each created four chances and completed five successful dribbles – the most in the Liverpool team. Sterling suffered seven fouls, four more than the second most-fouled player. And three of those seven fouls came in the last ten minutes, including Seb Larsson's yellow card – Sunderland's only yellow card of the match – evidence of the home side's increasing desperation.
It was also heartening to see him do all this on the right side of the pitch. Both he and Borini have been far better on the left in previous matches; both had struggled to replicate their better moments on the opposite flank. Until Saturday, Downing arguably had been Liverpool's most-effective right winger.
I cannot emphasize the "we can't get carried away" mantra hard enough. But I also cannot help but express my surprise and joy at Sterling's accelerated development.
15 September 2012
Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland
Goals:
Fletcher 29'
Suarez 71'
It could have been worse, it should have been better, it was still way too similar to past failings. And it's getting harder and harder to find new ways to write the same exact damn thing every damn time.
You've seen it all before. Rodgers threw a few curveballs with his tactics and selection – Suarez started on the flank for the first time in his Liverpool career, Gerrard played in a much deeper midfield role with Shelvey further forward, Sterling started on the right even though Borini played as the central striker – but it was still same old, same old. Liverpool created a handful of chances, but suffered from poor finishing and a lack of movement. Borini had the two best, intercepting a soft back header and a first-time blast from the top of the box, but shot too close to Mignolet both times. And then, just when Liverpool edged closer to making the breakthrough, Sunderland sucker-punched.
It's no coincidence that Fletcher's goal came at almost the same point of the match as Podolski's did in the previous fixture. Liverpool are too easily torn asunder by counter-attacks, in midfield, on the flanks, and in central defense. At least there was no single scapegoat this time. Liverpool were caught flat-footed after Atkinson played advantage following Gerrard's foul, Gardner beat both Suarez and Johnson when ambling down the flank, Reina missed the low cross, and Fletcher embarrassed Skrtel, getting behind him far too easily to pounce in the six-yard box. It was Sunderland's first shot of the match.
Liverpool struggled its way to halftime, then found increasingly hilarious ways to not score after the restart. It wouldn't be a typical, soul-killing Liverpool match without hitting the woodwork; Johnson cannoned a blast off the crossbar, Gerrard caromed off the outside of the post on an opportunity he'd bury 11 times out of 10 three years ago.
But then Liverpool's savior finally struck. No, not that savior. Well, yes, that savior, but because of a different savior.
For long stretches, Sterling was the only Liverpool player holding up his end of the bargain: running at defenders, eager to take players on, trying to make a difference. He's 17, starting his third Premier League match, and was the only player who didn't disappoint. Finally, one of those crosses after a yet another clever run found its mark, with a generous assist from walking calamity Titus Bramble, blocking Suarez's shot straight back to Suarez. I'm tempted to say he couldn't miss from three yards out, but we all know better. Regardless, after 341 minutes of league action, Liverpool's first goal from open play. It was Liverpool's 19th shot of the match.
But Liverpool couldn't find a second, losing steam after the exertions leading to the equalizer. The lone substitution, Downing for the again-disappointing Borini in the 65th, added little, although that substitution allowed Suarez to move into a central position. Shelvey struck a fierce left-footed effort after running across the top of the box in the 80th minute, but again shot too close to Mignolet. Otherwise, Liverpool couldn't penetrate Sunderland's penalty box, packed with six or seven defenders, and the home side actually had the better efforts in the dying seconds, but McClean and Colback's crosses were wayward, Saha's shot from distance high and wide.
So sure, it could have been worse. We've become accustomed to stronger stomach punches. Sterling impressed, and Johnson saved Liverpool with three or four recovery tackles, even if he didn't do enough to stop Sunderland's goal and shot wastefully far too often. Joe Allen seemed slightly off-color, and that's after completing 103 of 113 passes. Shelvey had impressive moments and reckless moments in an attacking role, while Kelly defended well. Liverpool did dominate for long stretches, and were blessedly patient in their build-up leading to the equalizer, as is the plan, rather than frantically hoofing and hoping. Rodgers' system is taking hold. But, once again, Liverpool's most important players were its biggest disappointments. Moving Gerrard into a deeper role didn't improve his performance and didn't improve Liverpool's midfield balance; Joe Allen still had to try to do the work of two men. Suarez failed to make any impact in a wide role and was again profligate until his point-blank goal, his only shot on target of six in total. Borini was even less influential in his preferred striker position.
Once again, the stats tell a totally different story than the scoreline. Sunderland had 34% possession, attempted and completed 300 fewer passes, and took just one shot from inside the penalty area, its only shot on target. And they scored with that one shot on goal.
Liverpool controlled the ball, created twice as many chances, took three times as many shots (seven on target to Sunderland's one), and attempted and completed twice as many passes in the attacking third and in total. And still drew.
In some ways, that's progress. If not for one mistake, Liverpool wins 1-0. If not for the woodwork or poor finishing, Liverpool wins 3-0. It was an improvement on Liverpool's last away match, and on most of Liverpool's away performances last season.
In other ways, it's massively disappointing, because we've seen similar far too often since the beginning of last season. It can't stay like this forever, can it?
Fletcher 29'
Suarez 71'
It could have been worse, it should have been better, it was still way too similar to past failings. And it's getting harder and harder to find new ways to write the same exact damn thing every damn time.
You've seen it all before. Rodgers threw a few curveballs with his tactics and selection – Suarez started on the flank for the first time in his Liverpool career, Gerrard played in a much deeper midfield role with Shelvey further forward, Sterling started on the right even though Borini played as the central striker – but it was still same old, same old. Liverpool created a handful of chances, but suffered from poor finishing and a lack of movement. Borini had the two best, intercepting a soft back header and a first-time blast from the top of the box, but shot too close to Mignolet both times. And then, just when Liverpool edged closer to making the breakthrough, Sunderland sucker-punched.
It's no coincidence that Fletcher's goal came at almost the same point of the match as Podolski's did in the previous fixture. Liverpool are too easily torn asunder by counter-attacks, in midfield, on the flanks, and in central defense. At least there was no single scapegoat this time. Liverpool were caught flat-footed after Atkinson played advantage following Gerrard's foul, Gardner beat both Suarez and Johnson when ambling down the flank, Reina missed the low cross, and Fletcher embarrassed Skrtel, getting behind him far too easily to pounce in the six-yard box. It was Sunderland's first shot of the match.
Liverpool struggled its way to halftime, then found increasingly hilarious ways to not score after the restart. It wouldn't be a typical, soul-killing Liverpool match without hitting the woodwork; Johnson cannoned a blast off the crossbar, Gerrard caromed off the outside of the post on an opportunity he'd bury 11 times out of 10 three years ago.
But then Liverpool's savior finally struck. No, not that savior. Well, yes, that savior, but because of a different savior.
For long stretches, Sterling was the only Liverpool player holding up his end of the bargain: running at defenders, eager to take players on, trying to make a difference. He's 17, starting his third Premier League match, and was the only player who didn't disappoint. Finally, one of those crosses after a yet another clever run found its mark, with a generous assist from walking calamity Titus Bramble, blocking Suarez's shot straight back to Suarez. I'm tempted to say he couldn't miss from three yards out, but we all know better. Regardless, after 341 minutes of league action, Liverpool's first goal from open play. It was Liverpool's 19th shot of the match.
But Liverpool couldn't find a second, losing steam after the exertions leading to the equalizer. The lone substitution, Downing for the again-disappointing Borini in the 65th, added little, although that substitution allowed Suarez to move into a central position. Shelvey struck a fierce left-footed effort after running across the top of the box in the 80th minute, but again shot too close to Mignolet. Otherwise, Liverpool couldn't penetrate Sunderland's penalty box, packed with six or seven defenders, and the home side actually had the better efforts in the dying seconds, but McClean and Colback's crosses were wayward, Saha's shot from distance high and wide.
So sure, it could have been worse. We've become accustomed to stronger stomach punches. Sterling impressed, and Johnson saved Liverpool with three or four recovery tackles, even if he didn't do enough to stop Sunderland's goal and shot wastefully far too often. Joe Allen seemed slightly off-color, and that's after completing 103 of 113 passes. Shelvey had impressive moments and reckless moments in an attacking role, while Kelly defended well. Liverpool did dominate for long stretches, and were blessedly patient in their build-up leading to the equalizer, as is the plan, rather than frantically hoofing and hoping. Rodgers' system is taking hold. But, once again, Liverpool's most important players were its biggest disappointments. Moving Gerrard into a deeper role didn't improve his performance and didn't improve Liverpool's midfield balance; Joe Allen still had to try to do the work of two men. Suarez failed to make any impact in a wide role and was again profligate until his point-blank goal, his only shot on target of six in total. Borini was even less influential in his preferred striker position.
Once again, the stats tell a totally different story than the scoreline. Sunderland had 34% possession, attempted and completed 300 fewer passes, and took just one shot from inside the penalty area, its only shot on target. And they scored with that one shot on goal.
Liverpool controlled the ball, created twice as many chances, took three times as many shots (seven on target to Sunderland's one), and attempted and completed twice as many passes in the attacking third and in total. And still drew.
In some ways, that's progress. If not for one mistake, Liverpool wins 1-0. If not for the woodwork or poor finishing, Liverpool wins 3-0. It was an improvement on Liverpool's last away match, and on most of Liverpool's away performances last season.
In other ways, it's massively disappointing, because we've seen similar far too often since the beginning of last season. It can't stay like this forever, can it?
14 September 2012
Liverpool at Sunderland 09.15.12
12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Sunderland (a) 03.10.12
1-1 (h) 08.13.11
2-0 Liverpool (a) 03.28.11
2-2 (h) 09.25.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Arsenal (h); 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h)
Sunderland: 2-2 Swansea (a); 2-0 Morecambe (h); 0-0 Arsenal (a)
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
"The worst start to a league campaign in fifty years." "The last time Liverpool failed to win at least one of its first four league fixtures was 1911-12." "Liverpool currently have the worst conversion rate and lowest shooting accuracy in the league." "Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in its last 17 league matches."
So, how were your two weeks without Premier League football?
I imagine Brendan Rodgers' were less than enjoyable. All those issues, still adjusting to his new job and his understrength squad, and almost everyone goes away for international duties.
Liverpool's small squad means the line-up should be fairly predictable. Şahin or Shelvey, will Enrique finally be fit? Otherwise, basically the same as against Arsenal, the same as against Manchester City.
Nuri Şahin struggled against Arsenal, both in his role in Rodgers' system and in general match fitness. Despite conceding a second soon after, Liverpool looked better when Shelvey entered the fray two weeks ago, and better when Shelvey had to replace Lucas early against Manchester City. Şahin came on as a substitute in both of Turkey's international matches, for 10 minutes against Estonia and for 30 minutes against the Netherlands, so his match fitness should be improving, but he's had little time to adjust to Liverpool's style of play and his necessary movement in relation to Allen, Gerrard, and the rest of the Liverpool team. Which leads me to think that Shelvey's a more likely starter tomorrow. Then I remember Rodgers' willingness to throw Şahin in the deep end last time out, and reckon that'll probably be the case again tomorrow.
If Enrique's absent again, chances are Downing will have to play left back, as Martin Kelly is also doubtful after picking up an injury in Monday's u21 match. Whether it's Enrique, Downing, or Johnson, they'll have to cope with Adam Johnson's pace – if the winger's fit after pulling out of the England squad with a thigh injury – or Seb Larsson's guile, a dangerous player in his own right but less of a threat when running at defenders. Either will be tough opposition.
As usual, you know what you get with a Martin O'Neill side. Wingers attacking, defenders defending, a contentious, physical midfield, and a target man up front. Steven Fletcher – that target man – is Sunderland's club record signing, scoring twice in five minutes on his debut against Swansea. Fletcher's good in the air, scoring more than half his goals via headers, and (unlike Liverpool) a clinical finisher; only Frank Lampard had a better clear-cut chance conversion rate last season. Left winger James McClean and attacking midfielder Stephane Sessegnon will also be threats.
Sunderland had to use two midfielders as fullbacks against Swansea, with Gardner at right back and Colback on the left. Gardner looks likely to continue in this role due to Phil Bardsley's absence, but on-loan Danny Rose could make his debut on the left. Assuming Johnson's absent, Cattermole's fit (he had to go off in the first half against Swansea because of a dead leg), and Rose will debut, I'd expect their line-up to be Mignolet; Gardner, O'Shea, Cuellar, Rose; Cattermole, Colback; Larsson, Sessegnon, McClean; Fletcher.
Like Liverpool, Sunderland are still winless, but have drawn twice rather than Liverpool's two losses and a draw. Both of their draws were heartening rather than disconcerting: defending excellently against Arsenal (who, I doubt I need remind, ran over Liverpool last time out) then holding a surprising Swansea side which had won its two previous matches 5-0 and 3-0. Tomorrow will be the Mackems' first home match of the season, as the fixture with Reading was postponed due to a water-logged pitch.
The litany of concerns that started this preview demonstrate the amount of pressure Liverpool will be under tomorrow, both external and internal. I have no idea whether this week's Hillsborough revelations will exacerbate that pressure or invigorate the players, but it will be an emotional day regardless. One can only hope it'll be a rewarding one as well.
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Sunderland (a) 03.10.12
1-1 (h) 08.13.11
2-0 Liverpool (a) 03.28.11
2-2 (h) 09.25.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Arsenal (h); 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h)
Sunderland: 2-2 Swansea (a); 2-0 Morecambe (h); 0-0 Arsenal (a)
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
"The worst start to a league campaign in fifty years." "The last time Liverpool failed to win at least one of its first four league fixtures was 1911-12." "Liverpool currently have the worst conversion rate and lowest shooting accuracy in the league." "Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in its last 17 league matches."
So, how were your two weeks without Premier League football?
I imagine Brendan Rodgers' were less than enjoyable. All those issues, still adjusting to his new job and his understrength squad, and almost everyone goes away for international duties.
Liverpool's small squad means the line-up should be fairly predictable. Şahin or Shelvey, will Enrique finally be fit? Otherwise, basically the same as against Arsenal, the same as against Manchester City.
Nuri Şahin struggled against Arsenal, both in his role in Rodgers' system and in general match fitness. Despite conceding a second soon after, Liverpool looked better when Shelvey entered the fray two weeks ago, and better when Shelvey had to replace Lucas early against Manchester City. Şahin came on as a substitute in both of Turkey's international matches, for 10 minutes against Estonia and for 30 minutes against the Netherlands, so his match fitness should be improving, but he's had little time to adjust to Liverpool's style of play and his necessary movement in relation to Allen, Gerrard, and the rest of the Liverpool team. Which leads me to think that Shelvey's a more likely starter tomorrow. Then I remember Rodgers' willingness to throw Şahin in the deep end last time out, and reckon that'll probably be the case again tomorrow.
If Enrique's absent again, chances are Downing will have to play left back, as Martin Kelly is also doubtful after picking up an injury in Monday's u21 match. Whether it's Enrique, Downing, or Johnson, they'll have to cope with Adam Johnson's pace – if the winger's fit after pulling out of the England squad with a thigh injury – or Seb Larsson's guile, a dangerous player in his own right but less of a threat when running at defenders. Either will be tough opposition.
As usual, you know what you get with a Martin O'Neill side. Wingers attacking, defenders defending, a contentious, physical midfield, and a target man up front. Steven Fletcher – that target man – is Sunderland's club record signing, scoring twice in five minutes on his debut against Swansea. Fletcher's good in the air, scoring more than half his goals via headers, and (unlike Liverpool) a clinical finisher; only Frank Lampard had a better clear-cut chance conversion rate last season. Left winger James McClean and attacking midfielder Stephane Sessegnon will also be threats.
Sunderland had to use two midfielders as fullbacks against Swansea, with Gardner at right back and Colback on the left. Gardner looks likely to continue in this role due to Phil Bardsley's absence, but on-loan Danny Rose could make his debut on the left. Assuming Johnson's absent, Cattermole's fit (he had to go off in the first half against Swansea because of a dead leg), and Rose will debut, I'd expect their line-up to be Mignolet; Gardner, O'Shea, Cuellar, Rose; Cattermole, Colback; Larsson, Sessegnon, McClean; Fletcher.
Like Liverpool, Sunderland are still winless, but have drawn twice rather than Liverpool's two losses and a draw. Both of their draws were heartening rather than disconcerting: defending excellently against Arsenal (who, I doubt I need remind, ran over Liverpool last time out) then holding a surprising Swansea side which had won its two previous matches 5-0 and 3-0. Tomorrow will be the Mackems' first home match of the season, as the fixture with Reading was postponed due to a water-logged pitch.
The litany of concerns that started this preview demonstrate the amount of pressure Liverpool will be under tomorrow, both external and internal. I have no idea whether this week's Hillsborough revelations will exacerbate that pressure or invigorate the players, but it will be an emotional day regardless. One can only hope it'll be a rewarding one as well.
12 September 2012
Hillsborough Links
Many are more qualified to write on this topic: more passionately, more intelligently, closer to the situation, whether by age or proximity. Whether on today's developments or the history of the Hillsborough Disaster. This is one of those times where it's hardest being a Liverpool supporter on the wrong side of the ocean.
But that's no excuse for avoiding such an important moment in the club's history; every supporter, Liverpool or otherwise, should know the details of what happened and recognize today for what it is: some much-needed closure, after 23 long years, and some semblance of justice. First concrete steps toward justice, at the very least.
So all I can recommend is "read." Read the history, read the Hillsborough Independent Panel's report and conclusion, and learn for yourself.
• Hillsborough Independent Panel: Disclosed Material and Report
• LFC.tv – David Cameron's statement
• ITV and BBC documentaries via Liverpool Offside
• Daily Mirror: Brian Reade on the day that changed football forever
• The Guardian: Hillsborough and Battle of Orgreave
• Tony Evans: New report will accuse police of orchestrating Hillsborough cover-up
• The Anfield Wrap: Watching last night's documentary on Hillsborough was like getting run over by a truck
• Iain Macintosh – Hillsborough: An Apology
I'll update this when links to more videos from LFC.tv's live stream come online later today. Also, some more on the history of the Hillsborough, links I've usually posted on the anniversary of the disaster:
• Hillsborough Justice Campaign
• Hillsborough Family Support Group
• The Hillsborough Football Disaster
• Don’t Buy The Sun
• LFC.tv – Hillsborough: 10 Key Questions
• LFC.tv – 1 Question, 96 Responses
• Liverpoolfc.tv tribute page
• Sheila Coleman: Hillsborough 23 Years On
• The Anfield Wrap – Hillsborough: Still Waiting for The Truth
• Dave Kirby: The Justice Bell
But that's no excuse for avoiding such an important moment in the club's history; every supporter, Liverpool or otherwise, should know the details of what happened and recognize today for what it is: some much-needed closure, after 23 long years, and some semblance of justice. First concrete steps toward justice, at the very least.
So all I can recommend is "read." Read the history, read the Hillsborough Independent Panel's report and conclusion, and learn for yourself.
• Hillsborough Independent Panel: Disclosed Material and Report
• LFC.tv – David Cameron's statement
• ITV and BBC documentaries via Liverpool Offside
• Daily Mirror: Brian Reade on the day that changed football forever
• The Guardian: Hillsborough and Battle of Orgreave
• Tony Evans: New report will accuse police of orchestrating Hillsborough cover-up
• The Anfield Wrap: Watching last night's documentary on Hillsborough was like getting run over by a truck
• Iain Macintosh – Hillsborough: An Apology
I'll update this when links to more videos from LFC.tv's live stream come online later today. Also, some more on the history of the Hillsborough, links I've usually posted on the anniversary of the disaster:
• Hillsborough Justice Campaign
• Hillsborough Family Support Group
• The Hillsborough Football Disaster
• Don’t Buy The Sun
• LFC.tv – Hillsborough: 10 Key Questions
• LFC.tv – 1 Question, 96 Responses
• Liverpoolfc.tv tribute page
• Sheila Coleman: Hillsborough 23 Years On
• The Anfield Wrap – Hillsborough: Still Waiting for The Truth
• Dave Kirby: The Justice Bell
03 September 2012
Visualized: Liverpool 0-2 Arsenal
Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h)
Well, I promised to do these comprehensive infographics for all the "big" matches. I guess I can't stop after one because the second big match went so comprehensively awful. And no, I still haven't come up with a better title for the series.
As with last week's, all data via StatsZone and Squawka.
A couple of notes after the image...
This graphic seems to serve even more of a purpose than last week's against City. Because it makes it obvious how Arsenal won the game: midfield passing, a sturdy defense, and taking its chances.
Liverpool attempted and completed more passes – and a higher percentage of passes – and had more possession, but Arsenal's midfield put Liverpool's to shame. Arteta and Diaby controlled the game, while it felt like Cazorla could score or create a goal every time he waltzed into the final third. 72 passes, 65 completed is an egregious, egregious total for an attacking midfielder and again helps demonstrate just how much Liverpool missed Lucas' ability to cover that area of the pitch.
The tackles and interceptions section is almost as frightening. Especially as you near the penalty boxes. Arsenal's is ringed and filled with tackles and interceptions. Liverpool made one tackle inside its box and three inside the defensive third; nine of Liverpool's 17 tackles came in the opposition half.
Finally, every outfield Liverpool player – all 12 of them, starter and substitute – took at least one shot or created at least one chance. But once again, Liverpool wasted every single one. Seven of Arsenal's 13 outfield players created a chance or took a shot, but they made two of theirs count.
Well, I promised to do these comprehensive infographics for all the "big" matches. I guess I can't stop after one because the second big match went so comprehensively awful. And no, I still haven't come up with a better title for the series.
As with last week's, all data via StatsZone and Squawka.
A couple of notes after the image...
This graphic seems to serve even more of a purpose than last week's against City. Because it makes it obvious how Arsenal won the game: midfield passing, a sturdy defense, and taking its chances.
Liverpool attempted and completed more passes – and a higher percentage of passes – and had more possession, but Arsenal's midfield put Liverpool's to shame. Arteta and Diaby controlled the game, while it felt like Cazorla could score or create a goal every time he waltzed into the final third. 72 passes, 65 completed is an egregious, egregious total for an attacking midfielder and again helps demonstrate just how much Liverpool missed Lucas' ability to cover that area of the pitch.
The tackles and interceptions section is almost as frightening. Especially as you near the penalty boxes. Arsenal's is ringed and filled with tackles and interceptions. Liverpool made one tackle inside its box and three inside the defensive third; nine of Liverpool's 17 tackles came in the opposition half.
Finally, every outfield Liverpool player – all 12 of them, starter and substitute – took at least one shot or created at least one chance. But once again, Liverpool wasted every single one. Seven of Arsenal's 13 outfield players created a chance or took a shot, but they made two of theirs count.
02 September 2012
Liverpool 0-2 Arsenal
Goals:
Podolski 31'
Cazorla 68'
Somehow, that was more demoralizing than the 0-3 loss at West Brom, despite the quality of the opposition and the slightly less embarrassing scoreline.
There were excuses for that first loss, most stemming from the red card. But this script becomes more painful the more we're subjected to the same film. Liverpool were deservedly beaten, horribly impotent and utterly clueless in the final third, and Liverpool conceded from a Gerrard giveaway and a Reina mistake. Stop me if you've heard this one before.
That's not to downplay how well Arsenal played. More specifically, how well Arsenal defended. Jenkinson did outstandingly against Sterling, Vermaelen was Vermaelen, and Podolski and Oxlade-Chamberlain tracked back brilliantly. Aside from one early moment, Suarez couldn't even test Mertesacker, never finding space to run at the slow defender because of his poor control and decision-making and Arsenal defending in numbers.
It was all so terribly predictable. Arsenal's short passing and strong defense – in addition to Liverpool's much-noted attacking impotence – prevented the home side from taking advantage of the edge in possession and decent start to the match. Then Arsenal struck on the counter, as Arsenal loves to do, beginning with yet another Gerrard giveaway, the third consecutive league match where a bad decision errant pass is severely punished. And there have only been three league matches.
Gerrard leads Suarez too far, his only option, with Suarez encircled by three defenders. Vermaelen easily intercepts, and immediately finds Podolski just outside the center circle. Liverpool are carved wide open, Podolski's pass splitting Şahin and Allen, both stepping forward to the halfway line, neither covering as a holding midfielder. Cazorla runs 30 yards before Enrique comes close to catching up, then returns the ball to Podolski, who had sprinted past Johnson even though the defender had a head start. The right back's unable to block the shot, Reina's unable to stop it, one-nil to the Arsenal.
Liverpool tried to make amends, both before and after the interval, but kept doing the same things. Gerrard and Suarez continued to misfire, Sterling couldn't find any space because of Arsenal's good work, and Borini was utterly invisible. Webb ignored three penalty shouts – one correctly, one arguably, and one insanely, as Webb is prone to do – but Arsenal remained the more dangerous, and nearly punished Liverpool on the counter twice more. Giroud wildly misfired after an excellent run from Diaby carved open Liverpool's tender belly yet again just before halftime, Reina made an excellent save on Gibbs' near post shot not long after the restart.
Liverpool improved after Downing replaced the hopeless Borini in the 54th minute, but still couldn't penetrate the Arsenal defense: Suarez had a shot tipped over, Downing had one blocked after a clever run then couldn't direct a header on target from Sterling's clever cross.
And then Arsenal struck again, a flawless passing move that diced through Liverpool's defense: Diaby to Podolski to Diaby to Cazorla to Podolski to Cazorla, with Shelvey (on a minute before as a substitute) unable to close down when chasing like a dog after a tennis ball and everyone else standing off. But Reina should have easily parried Cazorla's near post blast, once again letting a goal slip through his fingers. Less culpability than the Hearts' calamity because of the ferocity of Cazorla's shot, freely sprinting between Downing and Johnson, but still fairly unforgivable.
Arsenal simply had to sit back to prevent a Liverpool consolation, and despite Suarez's chip over and a couple of Shelvey shots saved, a consolation rarely looked on the cards, nevermind the needed two. Giroud probably had the best chance of the last 20 minutes, a free header from a corner with Downing lazy and Skrtel static, but ballooned the opportunity.
And with Liverpool suffering in attack, what did Rodgers have on his bench? A goalkeeper, three defenders, two central midfielders, and Stewart Downing. And Downing had replaced Borini (who really was indescribably bad today, once again not helped by playing on the right) early in the second half; Liverpool had no options once going behind by two. There's a reason everyone went insane when deadline day ended without new signings. The furor will most likely get louder before the situation gets better.
Once again, Liverpool lose when Gerrard and Suarez underperform, the former more inexcusably than the latter. Once again, only Joe Allen comes away with any credit, although Sterling had his moments and Shelvey did well off the bench. That's right, a 17-year-old making his second league start was Liverpool's best attacker. Liverpool's total lack of depth means that he's going to have to repeat that type of performance often. Far more often than he should have to do.
And, sadly, so much for not missing Lucas. Şahin looked off the pace, inoffensive but unthreatening, clearly needing match fitness. Allen may have played well, but he's not a defensive midfielder, not in a match like this. He completed one tackle and made three interceptions, Şahin two tackles and no interceptions. Arsenal made nine more tackles and six more interceptions than Liverpool. One match is not proof, especially Şahin's first match, but this doesn't appear to be a pairing capable of stopping the strongest sides; both want to press, neither are an effective shield for the back four, all too painfully evident on Arsenal's opening goal. Nine of Liverpool's 17 successful tackles were in Arsenal's half. All six of Liverpool's unsuccessful tackles came in their own half.
Still, the most blame for Liverpool's broken midfield lies with Liverpool's captain. Only Borini and Suarez had a worse pass completion percentage, and his giveaways somehow continue to punish Liverpool in the harshest possible manner. Once Liverpool went behind, he played more as an out-and-out attacker, almost a 4-4-1-1 formation at times in the second half, creating chances – five of Liverpool's 15 in total – but had next to no combination with the other two midfielders and did the typical "well, I just need to make longer, more ambitious passes" decision which infuriates more than it helps. And he, along with the front three, is supposed to be Liverpool's first line of defense. That line of defense did not perform well today despite those nine tackles; Diaby and Arteta – neither a defensive midfielder in their own right – were allowed to boss the game, especially Diaby. This match only strengthened the argument that Liverpool might be best served by playing Gerrard in the front three. And as against West Brom, most infuriating was his seeming indifference once Liverpool went two behind.
Now, with one point from nine, Liverpool have fulfilled all our fears, unable to come to terms with the difficult start. And now, instead of being able to regroup, the majority of players will go away for the international break. The schedule doesn't soften once players return, traveling to Sunderland before facing United, with the added bonus of Europa League and League Cup matches to test the thin squad.
We worried that it'd get worse before it got better, having to start from the ground floor against strong opposition. But we didn't expect it to be this much worse, with so many of last season's faults somehow amplified and little improvement in almost every area.
Podolski 31'
Cazorla 68'
Somehow, that was more demoralizing than the 0-3 loss at West Brom, despite the quality of the opposition and the slightly less embarrassing scoreline.
There were excuses for that first loss, most stemming from the red card. But this script becomes more painful the more we're subjected to the same film. Liverpool were deservedly beaten, horribly impotent and utterly clueless in the final third, and Liverpool conceded from a Gerrard giveaway and a Reina mistake. Stop me if you've heard this one before.
That's not to downplay how well Arsenal played. More specifically, how well Arsenal defended. Jenkinson did outstandingly against Sterling, Vermaelen was Vermaelen, and Podolski and Oxlade-Chamberlain tracked back brilliantly. Aside from one early moment, Suarez couldn't even test Mertesacker, never finding space to run at the slow defender because of his poor control and decision-making and Arsenal defending in numbers.
It was all so terribly predictable. Arsenal's short passing and strong defense – in addition to Liverpool's much-noted attacking impotence – prevented the home side from taking advantage of the edge in possession and decent start to the match. Then Arsenal struck on the counter, as Arsenal loves to do, beginning with yet another Gerrard giveaway, the third consecutive league match where a bad decision errant pass is severely punished. And there have only been three league matches.
Gerrard leads Suarez too far, his only option, with Suarez encircled by three defenders. Vermaelen easily intercepts, and immediately finds Podolski just outside the center circle. Liverpool are carved wide open, Podolski's pass splitting Şahin and Allen, both stepping forward to the halfway line, neither covering as a holding midfielder. Cazorla runs 30 yards before Enrique comes close to catching up, then returns the ball to Podolski, who had sprinted past Johnson even though the defender had a head start. The right back's unable to block the shot, Reina's unable to stop it, one-nil to the Arsenal.
Liverpool tried to make amends, both before and after the interval, but kept doing the same things. Gerrard and Suarez continued to misfire, Sterling couldn't find any space because of Arsenal's good work, and Borini was utterly invisible. Webb ignored three penalty shouts – one correctly, one arguably, and one insanely, as Webb is prone to do – but Arsenal remained the more dangerous, and nearly punished Liverpool on the counter twice more. Giroud wildly misfired after an excellent run from Diaby carved open Liverpool's tender belly yet again just before halftime, Reina made an excellent save on Gibbs' near post shot not long after the restart.
Liverpool improved after Downing replaced the hopeless Borini in the 54th minute, but still couldn't penetrate the Arsenal defense: Suarez had a shot tipped over, Downing had one blocked after a clever run then couldn't direct a header on target from Sterling's clever cross.
And then Arsenal struck again, a flawless passing move that diced through Liverpool's defense: Diaby to Podolski to Diaby to Cazorla to Podolski to Cazorla, with Shelvey (on a minute before as a substitute) unable to close down when chasing like a dog after a tennis ball and everyone else standing off. But Reina should have easily parried Cazorla's near post blast, once again letting a goal slip through his fingers. Less culpability than the Hearts' calamity because of the ferocity of Cazorla's shot, freely sprinting between Downing and Johnson, but still fairly unforgivable.
Arsenal simply had to sit back to prevent a Liverpool consolation, and despite Suarez's chip over and a couple of Shelvey shots saved, a consolation rarely looked on the cards, nevermind the needed two. Giroud probably had the best chance of the last 20 minutes, a free header from a corner with Downing lazy and Skrtel static, but ballooned the opportunity.
And with Liverpool suffering in attack, what did Rodgers have on his bench? A goalkeeper, three defenders, two central midfielders, and Stewart Downing. And Downing had replaced Borini (who really was indescribably bad today, once again not helped by playing on the right) early in the second half; Liverpool had no options once going behind by two. There's a reason everyone went insane when deadline day ended without new signings. The furor will most likely get louder before the situation gets better.
Once again, Liverpool lose when Gerrard and Suarez underperform, the former more inexcusably than the latter. Once again, only Joe Allen comes away with any credit, although Sterling had his moments and Shelvey did well off the bench. That's right, a 17-year-old making his second league start was Liverpool's best attacker. Liverpool's total lack of depth means that he's going to have to repeat that type of performance often. Far more often than he should have to do.
And, sadly, so much for not missing Lucas. Şahin looked off the pace, inoffensive but unthreatening, clearly needing match fitness. Allen may have played well, but he's not a defensive midfielder, not in a match like this. He completed one tackle and made three interceptions, Şahin two tackles and no interceptions. Arsenal made nine more tackles and six more interceptions than Liverpool. One match is not proof, especially Şahin's first match, but this doesn't appear to be a pairing capable of stopping the strongest sides; both want to press, neither are an effective shield for the back four, all too painfully evident on Arsenal's opening goal. Nine of Liverpool's 17 successful tackles were in Arsenal's half. All six of Liverpool's unsuccessful tackles came in their own half.
Still, the most blame for Liverpool's broken midfield lies with Liverpool's captain. Only Borini and Suarez had a worse pass completion percentage, and his giveaways somehow continue to punish Liverpool in the harshest possible manner. Once Liverpool went behind, he played more as an out-and-out attacker, almost a 4-4-1-1 formation at times in the second half, creating chances – five of Liverpool's 15 in total – but had next to no combination with the other two midfielders and did the typical "well, I just need to make longer, more ambitious passes" decision which infuriates more than it helps. And he, along with the front three, is supposed to be Liverpool's first line of defense. That line of defense did not perform well today despite those nine tackles; Diaby and Arteta – neither a defensive midfielder in their own right – were allowed to boss the game, especially Diaby. This match only strengthened the argument that Liverpool might be best served by playing Gerrard in the front three. And as against West Brom, most infuriating was his seeming indifference once Liverpool went two behind.
Now, with one point from nine, Liverpool have fulfilled all our fears, unable to come to terms with the difficult start. And now, instead of being able to regroup, the majority of players will go away for the international break. The schedule doesn't soften once players return, traveling to Sunderland before facing United, with the added bonus of Europa League and League Cup matches to test the thin squad.
We worried that it'd get worse before it got better, having to start from the ground floor against strong opposition. But we didn't expect it to be this much worse, with so many of last season's faults somehow amplified and little improvement in almost every area.
01 September 2012
Liverpool v Arsenal 09.02.12
8:30am ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Arsenal (h) 03.03.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 08.20.11
1-1 (a) 04.17.11
1-1 (h) 08.15.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h); 1-0 Hearts (a)
Arsenal: 0-0 Stoke (a); 0-0 Sunderland (h)
Referee: Howard Webb
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Agger Johnson
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
As long as Şahin's ready, and I can't see why he wouldn't be, the line-up seems to write itself. We all know Liverpool's strongest XI, after all. It's when forced to contemplate squad depth that everyone rightfully gets all shouty.
The same front six as against City except for Şahin replacing Lucas/Shelvey. The same back five as against City but with Agger returning from suspension, and maybe Enrique if he's somehow fully fit.
Enrique sounded doubtful about his availability in today's interview on the official site. Downing did adequately against Hearts, but defending against Arsenal is a different test, especially when he'd be facing Walcott, Gervinho, or Oxlade-Chamberlain. Liverpool play far, far better when Johnson's on the right, but still defend adequately when he's on the left, especially since Kelly's improved in the last three matches compared to his performance against West Brom.
With Sterling left out of the starting lineup against Hearts, it seems likely he'll start again tomorrow. Liverpool would probably best be served by Sterling on the left and Borini on the right, as against City, in contrast to how the two played as substitutes on Thursday. Both have struggled on the right, both right-footed and fairly reliant on cutting inside from the flanks, but Borini seems more likely to be able to alter his game, while Sterling's pace against 20-year-old right back Carl Jenkinson is an enticing prospect.
Arsenal have had a strange but not strange start to the season. Two 0-0 draws against Sunderland and Stoke certainly weren't the expected results – the only Premiership side to have failed to score – but both were thoroughly explainable. Both opponents set up for the draw, compact and packed in their own halves. Arsenal were obviously going to struggle for goals after losing van Persie, and played into Sunderland's hands in the opening match by starting a front three of Podolski, Gervinho, and Walcott – three quick forwards, none an out-and-out striker, who all thrive on quick, intricate movement and finding space. Despite starting Giroud, Arsenal were even blunter at Stoke, but more than a few sides have traveled to the Britannia and come away with nothing. Arsenal took a combined 40 shots against Sunderland and Stoke. Just five were on target. This will sound vaguely familiar to Liverpool fans.
Arsenal should find a bit more space tomorrow, especially with the match at Anfield. Unlike in the last two fixtures, Arsenal should be able quickly counter – something they thrive on – when winning the ball off of Liverpool, who will look to control possession as always under Rodgers. There will be space to run into behind Liverpool's high back line if Liverpool aren't careful, if the offside trap fails, if Liverpool make the kind of mistakes we've seen against City and West Brom. Imagine a quicker, more technically competent version of West Brom's first penalty decision on the opening day. That's what's Arsenal are perpetually capable of if given the chance. Much will depend on how well Liverpool's midfield controls the game, especially contingent on Gerrard's discipline, as his giveaways have led to opposition opportunities in both of Liverpool's league matches. Both Cazorla and Arteta are intelligent, patient midfielders, and Arsenal is typically excellent at the style of play Rodgers wants to encourage: keeping possession with quick passes and hunting in packs to close down options. Cazorla will be the playmaker, the conductor, and Joe Allen will have to be at the peak of his powers to keep him under wraps.
Szczesny will be a late decision, missing the last match with a rib injury, while Koscielny should make his first start of the season after a calf strain. Rosicky, Sagna, Frimpong, and Wilshere are all medium-to-long-term absentees; for approximately the 38th season in a row, Arsenal cannot catch a break from injuries. I expect their XI will be very similar to last week's, but with Szczesny and Koscielny in defense, and possibly Walcott or Oxlade-Chamberlain instead of Gervinho. Something close to Szczesny; Jenkinson Koscielny Vermaelen Gibbs; Arteta Diaby; Walcott Cazorla Podolski; Giroud.
Liverpool's starting XI in this fixture last season was Reina; Kelly Carragher Skrtel Enrique; Adam Spearing; Henderson Kuyt Downing; Suarez. And the only reason Arsenal won 2-1 rather than losing 0-1 was van Persie, beating Carragher twice, thumping two outstanding goals. The above guessed XI is far, far better than the one Liverpool deployed last March, while Arsenal's will be missing that goalscoring talisman.
While Liverpool have become known for raising its game against better opposition, Liverpool also haven't beaten Arsenal at Anfield since 2008, the 4-2 Champions League quarterfinal. It's been since 2007 in the league, Crouch's perfect hat-trick guiding Liverpool to a 4-1 win. Since then, four matches: two draws and two losses.
Yes, this is only the third game of the campaign, but both sides will be desperate not to fall further behind the league's best. Both sides' biggest issue is goal-scoring, both sides are coming to terms with a new playing style: Liverpool because of the new manager, Arsenal because of the summer's personnel overhaul. Arsenal have strength in depth but no superstar, Liverpool have a very good first XI but no depth.
No matter how early it is in the season, this match will tell us an awful lot about both sides, as well as their future for the next few months.
Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Arsenal (h) 03.03.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 08.20.11
1-1 (a) 04.17.11
1-1 (h) 08.15.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h); 1-0 Hearts (a)
Arsenal: 0-0 Stoke (a); 0-0 Sunderland (h)
Referee: Howard Webb
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Agger Johnson
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
As long as Şahin's ready, and I can't see why he wouldn't be, the line-up seems to write itself. We all know Liverpool's strongest XI, after all. It's when forced to contemplate squad depth that everyone rightfully gets all shouty.
The same front six as against City except for Şahin replacing Lucas/Shelvey. The same back five as against City but with Agger returning from suspension, and maybe Enrique if he's somehow fully fit.
Enrique sounded doubtful about his availability in today's interview on the official site. Downing did adequately against Hearts, but defending against Arsenal is a different test, especially when he'd be facing Walcott, Gervinho, or Oxlade-Chamberlain. Liverpool play far, far better when Johnson's on the right, but still defend adequately when he's on the left, especially since Kelly's improved in the last three matches compared to his performance against West Brom.
With Sterling left out of the starting lineup against Hearts, it seems likely he'll start again tomorrow. Liverpool would probably best be served by Sterling on the left and Borini on the right, as against City, in contrast to how the two played as substitutes on Thursday. Both have struggled on the right, both right-footed and fairly reliant on cutting inside from the flanks, but Borini seems more likely to be able to alter his game, while Sterling's pace against 20-year-old right back Carl Jenkinson is an enticing prospect.
Arsenal have had a strange but not strange start to the season. Two 0-0 draws against Sunderland and Stoke certainly weren't the expected results – the only Premiership side to have failed to score – but both were thoroughly explainable. Both opponents set up for the draw, compact and packed in their own halves. Arsenal were obviously going to struggle for goals after losing van Persie, and played into Sunderland's hands in the opening match by starting a front three of Podolski, Gervinho, and Walcott – three quick forwards, none an out-and-out striker, who all thrive on quick, intricate movement and finding space. Despite starting Giroud, Arsenal were even blunter at Stoke, but more than a few sides have traveled to the Britannia and come away with nothing. Arsenal took a combined 40 shots against Sunderland and Stoke. Just five were on target. This will sound vaguely familiar to Liverpool fans.
Arsenal should find a bit more space tomorrow, especially with the match at Anfield. Unlike in the last two fixtures, Arsenal should be able quickly counter – something they thrive on – when winning the ball off of Liverpool, who will look to control possession as always under Rodgers. There will be space to run into behind Liverpool's high back line if Liverpool aren't careful, if the offside trap fails, if Liverpool make the kind of mistakes we've seen against City and West Brom. Imagine a quicker, more technically competent version of West Brom's first penalty decision on the opening day. That's what's Arsenal are perpetually capable of if given the chance. Much will depend on how well Liverpool's midfield controls the game, especially contingent on Gerrard's discipline, as his giveaways have led to opposition opportunities in both of Liverpool's league matches. Both Cazorla and Arteta are intelligent, patient midfielders, and Arsenal is typically excellent at the style of play Rodgers wants to encourage: keeping possession with quick passes and hunting in packs to close down options. Cazorla will be the playmaker, the conductor, and Joe Allen will have to be at the peak of his powers to keep him under wraps.
Szczesny will be a late decision, missing the last match with a rib injury, while Koscielny should make his first start of the season after a calf strain. Rosicky, Sagna, Frimpong, and Wilshere are all medium-to-long-term absentees; for approximately the 38th season in a row, Arsenal cannot catch a break from injuries. I expect their XI will be very similar to last week's, but with Szczesny and Koscielny in defense, and possibly Walcott or Oxlade-Chamberlain instead of Gervinho. Something close to Szczesny; Jenkinson Koscielny Vermaelen Gibbs; Arteta Diaby; Walcott Cazorla Podolski; Giroud.
Liverpool's starting XI in this fixture last season was Reina; Kelly Carragher Skrtel Enrique; Adam Spearing; Henderson Kuyt Downing; Suarez. And the only reason Arsenal won 2-1 rather than losing 0-1 was van Persie, beating Carragher twice, thumping two outstanding goals. The above guessed XI is far, far better than the one Liverpool deployed last March, while Arsenal's will be missing that goalscoring talisman.
While Liverpool have become known for raising its game against better opposition, Liverpool also haven't beaten Arsenal at Anfield since 2008, the 4-2 Champions League quarterfinal. It's been since 2007 in the league, Crouch's perfect hat-trick guiding Liverpool to a 4-1 win. Since then, four matches: two draws and two losses.
Yes, this is only the third game of the campaign, but both sides will be desperate not to fall further behind the league's best. Both sides' biggest issue is goal-scoring, both sides are coming to terms with a new playing style: Liverpool because of the new manager, Arsenal because of the summer's personnel overhaul. Arsenal have strength in depth but no superstar, Liverpool have a very good first XI but no depth.
No matter how early it is in the season, this match will tell us an awful lot about both sides, as well as their future for the next few months.
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