31 January 2008

Predictions 2/2 – 2/3

Sorry, just the guesses at scores.

Manchester City v Arsenal, 7:45am, Setanta: 1-1
Portsmouth v Chelsea, 10am, FSC: Chelsea 2-0
Tottenham v Manchester Utd, 10am, Setanta: United 2-1
Blackburn v Everton, 10am, Setanta Xtra: 1-1
Birmingham v Derby, 10am: Brum 2-0
Reading v Bolton, 10am: Reading 1-0
Wigan v West Ham, 10am: 1-1
Newcastle v Middlesbrough, 8:30am Sunday, Setanta: Newcastle 1-0
Fulham v Aston Villa, 11am Sunday, FSC: Villa 2-1

Liverpool v Sunderland is on FSC at 12:15pm Saturday.

30 January 2008

Liverpool 0-1 West Ham

Reina
Finnan Carragher Hyypia Aurelio
Benayoun Gerrard Alonso Kewell
Torres Kuyt

Goals:
Noble 90+3’ (pen)

It can’t get much worse, can it?

0-0 all game long, and unfortunately you could have written the script from past performances. Neither side had a shot on target in the first half, but Liverpool was better in the second half and actually creating chances, most notably through Lucas soon after he came on (for Kewell in the 61st) and Torres in the 73rd minute (saved by Green’s foot). Obviously, none were taken. Wiley missed a handball by Lucas Neill in the 79th minute. And then Carragher gave up an unnecessary penalty in the third minute of stoppage time, which Noble scored despite Reina going the right way.

That’s the third penalty Carragher’s given up this season (tackle on Hunt against Reading and handball against Villa in the first match of the season), and again it’s a freak goal that spoils any hopes of a result. This time it’s compounded by the fact it came with the last kick of the game and during a stretch where Liverpool can’t buy a win. By itself, an unlucky loss at West Ham thanks to a late penalty isn’t the end of the world, and yes, West Ham did play well, but in the context of the last month it couldn’t be worse.

There’s little point singling out players’ performances. Everyone, anyone, needs to stand up and be counted. Lucas helped to change the game after he came on and was unlucky not to score with one of his opportunities, but once again, there’s little to be happy with and little evidence of any progress. Or cohesion. Or desire. Or the team that looked to be going in the right direction until all this turmoil started. This is exactly the time you’d think the players would rally around the manager and fight for the club, but it’s not happening.

I don’t know if the players are unsettled by the Klinsmann talk or if they’ve just lost faith in Benitez, but every time out it seems more and more like the team isn’t responding to Rafa. As much as I want Benitez to succeed and fear the ramifications should he leave, when you’ve lost the team you’ve got no chance. I have no idea what’s going on behind the scenes, and that makes me as sick as the results on the pitch.

This is becoming uncannily like the last days of Houllier, which is a phrase I never thought I’d write. Worse than the similarity to Houllier’s end, it’s also starting to look like the downfall of Leeds, although by no means am I ready to draw that comparison yet. But how much of one it is we’ll soon see.

Liverpool has regressed to where they were in Rafa’s first season: in the fight for fourth, 17 points behind the league leaders. Right now the team sits in 7th with 40 points, 3 points behind Everton in 4th with a game in hand (against today’s opponents). Compare the squads between the two seasons and it’s hard to explain how that’s possible.

And fourth place is that last money-spinning Champions League place. In 2005, fifth wasn’t the end of the world because Liverpool qualified for Europe by winning the Champions League and wasn’t so dependent on Champions League revenue. Now I’m downright frightened what havoc a failure to qualify would wreak on a club loaded with debt, a budget dependent on European competition, and a £300m stadium due to be built.

I do believe Liverpool will get fourth. But at this rate, that has to be the fan and optimist in me, because we haven’t seen any evidence of it in 2008.

Nota Bene: For more on the debt, please read this comprehensive post by ttnbd on RAWK. At times frightening, other times reassuring, it could not be more thorough. Plus, even I could follow it, despite the fact that I'm a financial imbecile.

29 January 2008

Liverpool at West Ham 01.30.08

2:45pm EST, live in the US on Setanta Xtra. As the game’s only live on Setanta Xtra, chances are I'll have the review up after the delayed Setanta showing that starts at 7:45pm.

Last 4 head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.30.07
2-1 Liverpool (h) 08.26.06
3-3 aet Liverpool (FA Cup Final) 05.13.06
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.26.06

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 5-2 Havant (h); 2-2 Villa (h): 5-0 Luton (h)
West Ham: 1-1 City (a); 0-1 City (a); 2-1 Fulham (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 11; Gerrard 7; Babel, Benayoun, Kuyt, Voronin 3; Alonso 2; Crouch, Hyypia, Sissoko 1
West Ham: Ashton 5; Bowyer 4; Cole, Etherington 3; Bellamy, Ferdinand, Solano 2; McCartney, Noble, Parker, Upson 1

Referee: Alan Wiley

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Finnan Carragher Hyypia Aurelio
Benayoun Gerrard Alonso Kewell
Torres Kuyt

Like usual when there’s two games in less than a week, I think we’ll see a bit of rotation from the team that went out against Havant on Saturday. Players like Carragher, Gerrard, Torres, Reina and Alonso will surely return to the line-up, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kuyt and Kewell come back into the side as well.

Mascherano is suspended, having picked up five yellow cards in the league, while Agger, Arbeloa, and Voronin will miss the game through injury.

Surely Benayoun has to start again after notching a hat-trick? It’ll be his first game against the Hammers since leaving the club in July. I imagine he’ll slot in for Pennant on the right, but with Kewell underperforming (although not as badly as some others in the squad, and he is still working his way back to fitness following a lengthy injury), perhaps Yossi will stay out on the left (where he started on Saturday). But regardless of who plays on the wings, I imagine we’ll see them switch flanks, as against Havant and as happened earlier in the season before Pennant’s injury.

I realize many have been slamming Kuyt of late, including yours truly, but its not as if Liverpool’s overflowing with options up front. Crouch did not look good on Saturday, despite the goal (although he wasn’t paired with Torres), while Voronin’s injured and I can’t remember Babel starting two games in a week.

There’s an option of playing Benayoun centrally, as happened in the second half of the Havant match, but I don’t think we’ve seen Liverpool deploy a five-man midfield away from home this season. Kuyt’s been getting into decent positions, and (unsurprisingly) still shows 100% in his work rate (unlike a certain striker on Saturday). Like Crouch in his first season at Liverpool, once he breaks his luck in front of goal, more will come. And like Crouch in his first season, it’s important for the fans to stay behind the player through this goal drought.

Everyone’s sick of the repeated mantra that Liverpool needs to play better. There’s been enough talking off the pitch; the players need to start doing it on the field. By my count Liverpool’s had five disappointing league performances in a row, and it goes without saying that’s not good enough.

Benitez is partly right though; it is a matter of confidence. And a good performance away at West Ham, where Liverpool has a decent record over the past few meetings, is as good a place as any to start.

Sissoko to Juve

Well, the Sissoko move has been finalized.

Momo hasn’t had the best season the few times he’s seen the field, but it’s with sadness that he completes this move.

And it is a good move for all involved.

He’s currently fifth choice in central midfield, behind Gerrard, Masch, Alonso, and Lucas. He’s only 23 years old and still needs to develop as a footballer, so he needs to be playing. And Liverpool will recoup £8.2m from the transfer if reports are correct, which isn’t as much as people were hoping, but still £2.6m more than Liverpool bought him for.

He should have more time on the ball in Italy, and should get the run of games needed to cement and improve his form.

He was a useful and necessary player for Liverpool over his first two seasons, but Liverpool’s squad is improving, and Sissoko is one of the casualties of that. Benitez has sold players that he’s bought every season in order to improve the side. It’s sad to see Momo leave, but he needs to play and Liverpool needs those funds for Mascherano. That’s football, that’s life.

We will never forget the Chelsea match for the Community Shield, or the two legs against Barca in the Champions League. Those games were hallmarks of what Sissoko is and can be as a player; Michael Ballack probably still has nightmares featuring Momo.

We will never forget his determination to return after the eye injury that could have ruined his career, and the fact that he discarded the doctor-prescribed glasses in his return match before ten minutes were off the clock. Hard as nails.

And never forget, Momo is Boss. He’s magic, you know. You’ll never get past Sissoko.



All the best of luck.

28 January 2008

Predictions 1/29 - 1/30 (plus FA Cup draw)

Tuesday
Arsenal v Newcastle, 2:45pm, FSC: You saw the template for this match on Saturday. Although Arsenal was still sore from their Carling Cup loss when they met Newcastle this weekend, I can’t see a much different result. Poor Kev. At least Mike Ashley has loads of money (hint hint, Hicks). Arsenal 3-0
Sunderland v Birmingham, 3pm, Setanta: If Sunderland has any hope of staying up, they need to win their home matches, but Birmingham’s only two league losses over the past month have been to United and Chelsea, and they’ve only lost by one goal each time. 1-1
Middlesbrough v Wigan, 3pm, Setanta Xtra: Bruce has Wigan playing very well, but Boro’s been decent at home, and Middlesbrough need to make their home games count, as they’re only 2 points above the relegation places. Boro 1-0
Bolton v Fulham, 3pm: Fulham’s bought a ton of players during this window in Hodgson’s attempt to stave off relegation, and although Bolton’s home form under Megson has been excellent, I think Fulham can still come away with a much-needed point. 1-1

Wednesday
Chelsea v Reading, 2:45pm, FSC: Ugh. No matter injuries, no matter suspensions, no matter the African Cup of Nations, Chelsea keeps getting results. As much as I dislike them, as it’s Chelsea, that’s a very respectable quality in a team. Chelsea 2-0
Manchester Utd v Portsmouth, 3pm, Setanta: Boy I hope United comes back down to Earth with their league form soon, but I’m not holding my breath. Sigh. United 2-0
Derby v Manchester City, 2:45pm: Derby’s seemingly given up hope of staying up. They’ve looked likely to be relegated since August, but when players and the manager are admitting as much in the media, it can’t bode well for results or morale. City 2-1
Everton v Tottenham, 3pm: Were it not for Jermaine Jenas blowing two one-on-one opportunities yesterday, Tottenham could have come away with something from Sunday’s match against United. Spurs have played very well of late, while Everton has as well, and although it’s at Goodison (where Everton’s been excellent), I think the two teams may cancel each other out. 2-2

Liverpool v West Ham is Wednesday at 2:45pm. It's live on Setanta Xtra, which is usually only available on DirecTV, so chances are I'll have the review up after the delayed Setanta showing that starts at 7:45pm.


And while it doesn’t deserve it’s own post, I have to gloat a bit about the FA Cup draw held today. Not so much about Liverpool’s next match against Barnsley (as I reckon Saturday proved that any team from any division is worthy of respect), although having another leg at home is comforting (despite this season’s home form), and a bit unusual.

No, what I’m pleased about is that there are only 6 Premiership teams left out of the 16 in the draw. And with those odds, Arsenal and Manchester United are drawn against each other. Ha.

And at the very least, there will be three non-Premiership sides in the quarterfinals.

Sometimes this “magic of the FA Cup” cliché actually holds water.

Full draw:
Bristol Rovers v Southampton
Cardiff City v Wolves
Sheffield United v Middlesbrough
Liverpool v Barnsley
Manchester United v Arsenal
Preston v Portsmouth
Coventry City v West Brom
Chelsea v Huddersfield Town

26 January 2008

More thoughts on the Havant match

Having finally seen the match, and still with many of the same feelings I elucidated earlier, I thought I would just add some thoughts that struck during the match.

• Benayoun was the only one who could be satisfied with his performance after the first half. He was pressing the opposition, moving about the pitch, and trying to create, while many of Liverpool’s players were walking about even after going a goal down. Yossi was even unlucky not to bag a fourth in the 62nd minute thanks to a fantastic save from Scriven before going off for Kuyt in the 72nd.

• Lucas’ equalizer in the 27th minute was a goal of utter class. Compared to many others in the side, he didn’t make many mistakes either, showed a nice range of passing, and an ability to play from box to box. As Liverpool improved as the game went on, Lucas grew more influential in the middle. He’s going to be a wonderful player.

• The defense was awful for both goals, with Finnan taking most of the blame for both, which is surprising given his usual consistency. He lost Paquette on the corner for the first and misplayed an easy ball that put Potter in for the second. I’m more forgiving of Skrtel’s role; it’s his debut, and it was just unlucky that Potter’s shot deflected off him for Havant’s second. The backpass that gave up the corner for Havant’s first was a bigger error, and he improved in the second half.

• Despite the clumsiness of the first half performance, I’m still glad that Benitez made no changes during the break. It was up to the starting XI to fix the trouble they’d gotten themselves into, which they did. Plus, bringing on either Gerrard or Torres would have fed into the narrative that Liverpool is a two-man team, and showing the need for one of those two could have hurt the morale more than it helped the play.

• I don’t know whether it was unfamiliarity with playing as a striker for Liverpool or something tactical, but Babel was often deeper or wider than I expected (almost as if he was playing in the role of Kuyt/Voronin). At times it looked as if Liverpool was playing a non-league side at home with one up top, although Babel, Benayoun, Pennant, Mascherano, and Lucas all supported the attack when Liverpool was pressing, and Liverpool was getting men forward, mainly in the second half. During the spell when he tallied his second and third goals Benayoun played more centrally with Babel moving out to the left, but Babel, Pennant, and Benayoun interchanged often.

• It didn’t help Babel that Crouch didn’t play well either. I can find fault with every player’s game today, but Crouch was one who stood out, and it was a game in which he needed to do well for confidence’s sake. The goal in the 90th, where he was offside, covers up the fact he rarely looked like scoring otherwise and was kept under wraps by the Havant defense throughout. The play of the strikers outside of Torres (Kuyt didn’t cover himself in glory after coming on either) is one of the few things that does have me worried.

• Itandje was another who had a forgettable game, not commanding his area or communicating with his defense at times, epitomized in the 22nd minute when Liverpool was lucky not to go two goals down as Itandje flapped thrice at the ball, Liverpool failed to clear, and center-back Neil Sharp narrowly shot over. He did come up with a marvelous reaction save in the 87th from Jordan’s header to keep it at 4-2, but it was still probably his worst outing in a Liverpool shirt.

• 19 year-old Alfie Potter was much of the reason Finnan had such a poor game. Out of anyone in the Havant side, he has to be the one to watch to move up a few divisions. The five goals given up by Kevin Scriven don’t do him justice either, as he made a number of very good saves and came out to patrol his area well.

• I feel like any time fans of one club praise the other after winning a match it comes off as patronizing, especially when it’s a big club vis-à-vis a smaller one, but I really do want to give credit to Havant and Waterlooville. They came to play football and have a go, and kept going forward after going two goals down in the second half. Ignoring my overwhelming bias for Liverpool and the need for them to play well today, Havant and Waterlooville were an absolute pleasure to watch.

• As said before, it’s the FA Cup. It’s always good for a surprise, but Liverpool’s talent won out in the end. I’ll be a lot less forgiving if performances repeat themselves in the match against West Ham on Wednesday.

Liverpool 5-2 Havant & Waterlooville

Itandje
Finnan Skrtel Hyypia Riise
Pennant Lucas Mascherano Benayoun
Crouch Babel

Goals:
Paquette 8’
Lucas 27’
Skrtel (og) 31’
Benayoun 44’ 56’ 60’
Crouch 90’

In a way I’m glad I wasn’t subjected to this thanks to the first 45 minutes, but of course I’m not. It’s likely I would have broken my TV or something near it during the first half, but I’d still have taken my chances.

Of course I’m disappointed in what I read about the first half performance and having seen about 6 minutes worth of highlights, but there was always a chance something like this could happen. Havant was up for the match, didn’t sit back, and were able to take advantage of two nervous mistakes by a makeshift defense (including the fifth own goal of the season). Seriously, well done by them; they did themselves and their supporters very proud. Most of the Premier League doesn’t show that much attacking threat at Anfield.

Liverpool still equalized twice despite not having much rhythm about them, and got their act together in the second half, putting the game out of reach within 15 minutes of the restart through Benayoun’s second cup hat-trick. Crouch added more gloss in the 90th minute (and was offside), but I’m sure many aren’t satisfied with the result, which is fair after shipping two goals to non-league opposition in the first half.

Maybe because I didn’t see the match, (believe me, I was still furious going off of various text commentaries and delayed highlights), but in the end, I’m not that bothered. I’m worried about the defensive errors, as it’s not as if it was the first time they’ve appeared, but there was always the possibly Havant could spring a surprise with nothing to lose, and Liverpool had the class to come from behind twice and win by 3 in the end. It’s the magic of the FA Cup; I’ll be worried if trends continue in the Premiership or when it happens to a stronger XI.

As usual, I’ll have more to say if I see the full match, and in lieu of a full report, here’s a load of links:

• Liverpoolfc.tv match review
• Liverpoolfc.tv with Rafa
• 101 Great Goals: FA Cup 4th round
• BBC match review
• Sky Sports match review
• Eurosport match review
• RAWK post-match thread

25 January 2008

Liverpool v Havant and Waterlooville 01.26.08

4th Round. 10am EST, not on in the US. With no televised coverage in the UK either, there probably won’t be any streams either. So much for the magic of the FA Cup.

FA Cup run:
Liverpool: 5-0 Luton (h); 1-1 Luton (a)
Havant: 4-2 Swansea (h); 1-1 Swansea (a); 1-0 Notts County (a); 1-0 York City (a); 3-0 Leighton Town (h); 2-1 Fleet Town (a); 2-1 Bognor Regis Town (a)

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Villa (h); 5-0 Luton (h); 1-1 Boro (a)
Havant: 4-2 Swansea (h); 3-1 St Albans City (h); 1-4 Bishop Stortford (a)

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Itandje
Finnan Skrtel Hyypia Aurelio
Pennant Gerrard Alonso Babel
Crouch Kuyt

A week ago I would have argued that playing Torres or Gerrard would be sheer lunacy. No offense to Havant -- I’m not suggesting Liverpool trot out the under-18s or reserves -- but those two are far too important to Liverpool’s season, and I fear the kicking the players will get.

But after another disappointing draw in the league, and all the continuing off-field "news," I’m not so sure.

At the least, I reckon Gerrard will start. He is the captain, after all, and if Carragher gets the rest he so deserves (with Skrtel hopefully coming in), Gerrard has to be on the field as the team’s leader. As much as I wouldn’t mind seeing Lucas in the center with Alonso, I fear the reaction should Liverpool under-perform without Gerrard or Torres in the team.

And I still think, despite the 17 goals, Torres will start on the bench. He’s someone who would assuredly be in for a kicking, and although he’s been Liverpool main (and at times only) goal threat, Crouch and Kuyt, the first-choice pairing last season, should be strong enough to get goals. Kuyt especially needs to have a good game and hopefully get on the scoresheet to reclaim some of the confidence he’s clearly lost recently.

But then again, Benitez has fielded a stronger team than I’ve expected in pretty much every cup game, both FA and Carling, so far this season.

Arbeloa and Voronin are assuredly out, and in Voronin’s case, that’s not necessarily a bad thing with the form he’s been in. His injury should force Benitez to play Crouch more often, which many have been clamoring for. We may even see Babel play some as a striker (please!) but I imagine he’ll be on the left here, as he was against Luton, because of Liverpool’s limited options on that flank.

The BBC’s piece featuring the Havant team is worth a look to see who’ll be coming up against Liverpool on Saturday.

I’ve said enough, probably more than I wanted, about off-field matters of late, and hopefully they’ll have little impact on the field tomorrow. And it’s not as if Liverpool doesn’t have to focus on the match ahead.

We’ve seen all the talk of the importance of the cups because of disappointing league form; a second FA Cup under Benitez, or at the least a good run, would be small consolation, but consolation nonetheless.

But Liverpool must still get past Havant, and will still have to fight for it every step of the way. This won’t be an easier match because of Havant’s non-league status; if anything, there’s that much more pressure because of the gulf between the sides. Plus, players may not be as focused because of their opponents (see the Luton away leg), and, with no offense meant, this will be the biggest match in many of the opposition players' lives. They will leave everything on the Anfield pitch, and it’s imperative that whoever is in the starting XI for Liverpool do the same.