Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app.
xG map for Liverpool - Bayern. Both sides had to cobble together a lineup without some key pieces but only Bayern looked it. They managed to scrape, claw and sadio-mane-missing-shots their way to a fortunate 0-0. pic.twitter.com/Vr3FcDTCdb
— Caley Graphics (@Caley_graphics) February 19, 2019
FT: #LFC 0 (1.8 xG)#FCBayern 0 (0.3)
— Infogol (@InfoGolApp) February 19, 2019
The tie still very much alive, but Liverpool will feel it was an opportunity missed having been the superior side. Bayern will surely pack more of a punch in the home leg than they did tonight. #UCL #LIVBAY #LFCFCB pic.twitter.com/spprP9aMtF
This suggests that Liverpool done fucked up. A two-legged tie against a side that's literally always in the last stages of the Champions League, at home in the first leg, with that kind of output. And very, very little to show for it.
And that's kind of true! Liverpool really could and maybe should have won with those chances, and I wouldn't be surprised if we regretted and rued Liverpool's finishing come next month in Munich. Of course, I am rarely surprised when bad or disappointing things come to pass because I can't help being me, but still.
It was especially galling in the first half. Three clear-cut chances missed: Salah's back post header off-target in the 24th minute, Mané's shot wide on the spin from Keïta's blocked shot in the 33rd minute, and Mané's attempted bicycle kick – which probably shouldn't go down as a big chance – in the 38th minute.
This certainly wasn't how last season's first legs at Anfield bore out. 3-0 against City, 5-2 against Roma; Liverpool scored three goals from their first four shots against City, Liverpool scored five goals from 12 shots over a 35-minute span bridging halftime, with three from clear-cut chances, against Roma.
That suggests Liverpool need a performance like that to cancel out any potential second-leg drama. Because, despite those score lines, there was still a ton of drama in both of those second legs.
Yet this Liverpool also isn't last season's Liverpool. This season's Liverpool doesn't have to outscore any and everyone because this Liverpool can actually defend. Even when missing Virgil van Dijk, forced to partner fourth-choice Jöel Matip with midfielder-by-trade Fabinho, with Alexander-Arnold also making his first start in five weeks.
Yes, Liverpool put just two shots on-target in the entire match: Liverpool's first shot from Salah in the 12th minute and Liverpool's penultimate shot from Mané in the 86th. That's less than ideal, and two shots on-target from 15 or so shots is something which hasn't happened since last season. It happened three times last season: the 0-0 against Stoke in April sandwiched between the Roma legs, the 1-2 at Manchester United in March, and the 1-1 at Newcastle back in October. And it's still less than ideal when considering that Bayern had none. Yes, none. No shots on-target. With Fabinho and Matip as Liverpool's center-back pairing.
Yes, Liverpool's first shot in second half came in the 81st minute, with Bayern doing a wonderful job of eliminating Liverpool's capacity to press and limiting final third entries. Zero shots for the first 35 minutes of the second half, in a home knock-out round tie. As much credit for that goes to Bayern Munich as blame goes to Liverpool.
Manuel Neuer's 62 attempted passes is the most I can remember from a goalkeeper in a match I've done an infographic for, going back to 2012-13. Only Henderson and Fabinho attempted more passes for Liverpool than Neuer did for Bayern. Pity that Neuer just passed fit for this match, having missed substantial time in the couple of weeks before. Neuer, along with Süle, Kimmich, Hummels, and Thiago, were outstanding at playing keep-away from Liverpool, taking the sting out of the press, especially as players tired in the second half.
And Bayern weren't just calm on the ball, but diligent and resilient off it.
The two sides tackled at a similar rate, but Bayern's interceptions and clearances dwarfed Liverpool's – 20 to 10 and 29 to 12 respectively. The vast majority of those interceptions came just outside the box in the middle of the pitch and inside right territory: also known as Mohamed Salah Territory. The vast majority of the clearances came in a similar area if unsurprisingly deeper: the middle and right side of Bayern's penalty box. Also known as etc etc.
Liverpool had similar amounts of possession and passes in the second half as the first, but found it far harder to get into the penalty area, increasingly forced to shift wide and look for crosses rather than playing through the middle. Which helps explain the dramatic decline in Liverpool shots after halftime.
And now Liverpool has it all to do in Germany. A true knockout tie, precariously balanced but now in Bayern's favor.
There's not a lot of precedent when it comes to 0-0 home legs at Anfield in European knock-out competition. It's happened four previous times: against Valencia in the 1998-99 UEFA Cup, against Bilbao in the 1983-84 European Cup, and against Bayern Munich in the 1980-81 European Cup and 1971-72 Cup Winners' Cup.
Liverpool advanced from three of those four ties: getting past Valencia on away goals and beating both Bilbao and Bayern in the European Cup by a 1-0 margin. The only loss came back in 1971, a 1-3 defeat in Munich. I am very amused that three of the five occurrences in Liverpool's history now feature Bayern Munich.
But Liverpool's past obviously isn't always precedent.
Seven of the last 10 CL knock-out ties which began with a 0-0 saw the side at home in the second leg progress 😯 pic.twitter.com/AZ0XepRwml
— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) February 19, 2019
0-0 1st leg is the closest to parity for who qualifies in European knockout football. 55/45 in favour of Bayern
— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) February 19, 2019
It's not the happiest result, and we may regret Liverpool's inability to take advantage of their first half performance yesterday. But it's certainly not a bad result, especially considering that a makeshift defense nullified Bayern even more than Bayern nullified Liverpool. And Liverpool still have an excellent chance of progressing: any score draw, or, you know, just win.
And it's still only the second 0-0 of the season, the same amount as at this time last season. But last season's were against Manchester United – how's the job search going, Jose? – and West Brom, again both at Anfield. Not quite the same as Manchester City and Bayern Munich.
It's still a competent performance, if not our favorite result, against European royalty, a side that's qualified for the Champions League semi-finals in six of the last seven seasons. A side that's as much troubled by Liverpool as Liverpool were by them.
It's still up to Liverpool to make the most out of this still-impressive season so far.
1 comment :
Thanks as always for doing these. I really appreciate it.
Nate, you and I have often seen eye-to-eye about Liverpool's chances. I typically find myself often to be dismissive, pessimistic, even self-flagellating in my fandom. But now I find myself coming around to the Klopp-optimism. We were good in this game, despite our defensive injury issues! I feel confident that we can get a result in Germany especially given that a draw (as long as it is not nil-nil) sends us through. Maybe part of the optimism is that I would rather go out looking good than not. If we are unlucky, so be it. But we've played a good tie so far.
In any case, let's batter the mancs at the weekend!
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