Liverpool at Burnley 12.05.18

2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Gold

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.01.18
1-1 (h) 09.16.17
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.12.17
0-2 Burnley (a) 08.20.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Everton (h); 1-2 PSG (a); 3-0 Watford (a)
Burnley: 0-2 Palace (a); 1-2 Newcastle (h); 0-0 Leicester (a)

Goal-scorers (league):
Liverpool: Salah 7; Mané 6; Firmino 3; Milner, Shaqiri, Sturridge 2; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Origi, Wijnaldum 1
Burnley: Vokes 3; Barnes, Gudmundsson, Tarkowski 2; Hendrick, Lennon, Vydra, Wood 1

Referee: Stuart Attwell (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Alisson
Trent A-A Gomez van Dijk Moreno
Milner Henderson Keïta
Salah Sturridge Shaqiri

The first midweek league match of the season. The second of eight matches in December.

You have to assume there will be changes, will be rotation. But your guess is as good as mine as to how or whom.

What formation Liverpool plays is probably dependent on who plays. So let's guess a few absentees. There are two new injury doubts: Mané's got a cut on his foot which needed stitches, Robertson has a minor knock. Firmino's struggled for form. Liverpool have five available midfielders with Keïta fit and Henderson back from suspension.

With Mané potentially absent, Sturridge or Origi in line for a start, and all the central midfielders in contention, 4-3-3 seems more likely. I'm dubious of completely changing the midfield, but Fabinho's struggled in 4-3-3 and Wijnaldum's played more minutes than any other midfielder so far. So, there's the above guess, along with the preferred back four but with Moreno for Robertson, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Lovren or Matip either. But that's almost certainly going to be wrong in some places.

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see something more a 4-4-2 than the 4-2-3-1 we've seen lately, with two from Sturridge, Firmino, Origi and possibly Salah up front, but I'm also skeptical. If Firmino plays with another striker, it'll probably be 4-2-3-1. Origi's goal on Sunday is a wonderful story, but I doubt it makes him more likely to start matches, at least at this point.

Meanwhile, Burnley. Yikes. Karma catches up with you eventually.

Burnley had been the wizards of the Premier League in the previous two seasons. Over-performing both xG and xG against. A supremely difficult side to play again, allowing a ton of shots but very few good shots, and conceding surprisingly few goals while scoring *just enough.*

That hasn't been the case this season. At all. Well, they're still over-performing xG both for and against, although not by a ton. They've just been bad at the football. Only Huddersfield, Palace, Newcastle, and Southampton have scored fewer goals. Only Fulham has conceded more goals. They're 19th place, a point ahead of Fulham. They haven't won in more than two months, with five losses and two draws since the end of September.

And the only real line-up change from last season is Joe Hart in goal, so make of that what you will.

Burnley can't even blame injuries or absentees, other than Hart starting ahead of Nick Pope. They've again had one of the more settled sides in the league. Sure, Defour, Brady, and Tarkowski are doubtful for tomorrow's match, but the latter seems likely to start anyway and Burnley have experienced replacements for the two others.

If both Brady and Defour miss out, it'll probably be Hart; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Lennon, Westwood, Cork, Gudmundsson; Hendrick; Wood. Either Vokes or Barnes could start ahead of Wood up front. Maybe Burnley go more 4-4-2 with one of them paired with Wood in place of Hendrick. If Defour's available, he'll replace Westwood. If Brady is, he could play on either flank.

For all of Burnley's struggles, I remain nervous. A midweek match, with key players likely absent for Liverpool. An opponent who's given them problems in the past, no matter current form; last season's 1-1 at Anfield, the 0-2 at Burnley in 2016-17, even last season's 2-1 win at Burnley, decided thanks to Ragnar Klavan's only league goal for Liverpool, scored in the 90th minute. Liverpool are coming off a massive, morale-boosting win, but one achieved via fluke rather than force. Liverpool still aren't in the best form either, especially going forward.

We're reaching the point of the season where it doesn't matter how wins are achieved, with this many matches in quick succession, with crucial players needing rest or recuperation. Which, to be fair, is how we've felt for almost the entire season so far – a record amount of points at this phase of the season for Liverpool, but earned without ever truly impressing.

No matter. Just keep doing that. By any means necessary.