Liverpool 3-0 Wolves

Goals:
Carroll 52'
Bellamy 61'
Kuyt 78'

The result implies dominance, and Liverpool were fairly dominant throughout, but 3-0 did not look likely at half-time.

Sure, had Liverpool taken one of their multiple first half chances, most notably from Kuyt in the third minute, or had Anthony Taylor given Adam an absolutely dead certain penalty in the 35th, the side might have strolled to victory sooner. But after 45 minutes, Liverpool were ruing a lack of control in midfield, poor finishing, and worse refereeing. Not for the first time.

The second half destroyed that notion of further futility quite quickly, as all three strikers made the score sheet. Quickly changing ends after a Wolves corner, with Bellamy nearly set free by a long-range Enrique pass, Liverpool quickly scored from the resulting throw-in. A quick throw from Bellamy, an inch-perfect cross from Adam, and Carroll beating his marker, volleying a low shot past Hennessey. All before the defense had settled thanks to Enrique shifting defense to attack in a moment's notice. Not for the last time.

Nine minutes later, Liverpool's in-form striker sealed the result, finally thanks to the first opposition goalkeeper error of the season. From his own half, Spearing spread to ball to Bellamy on the left flank, given more than enough space to cut in from the left, curling a shot which Hennessey, by all rights, should have parried behind. Maybe what goes around truly does eventually come back around. Kuyt hit the capstone with 12 minutes to play, again started by Enrique and set up by Adam. The left back embarrassed Frimpong just outside Liverpool's box, beating the midfielder with both strength and pace, before blistering a cross-field 60-yard pass to a wide-open Kuyt on the right. The Dutchman passed to Adam and moved into space, and Adam returned the favor after three defenders converged on the ball, with everyone surprised Adam didn't attempt to go it alone when in possession in the penalty box. Kuyt's low finish from a narrow angle was cool, collected, and excellently placed.

Scoring was the most notable second-half improvement, perpetually the most needed improvement, but Liverpool's improvement began with better control in midfield. With Spearing busily chasing all over the pitch in the first 45 minutes, Wolves found it easy to carve through Liverpool at times. I'm adamant that Adam does some good things which are overshadowed by more obvious bad things, but covering for his midfield partner and staying in position are clearly not his strong points. However, in the second half, Spearing seemed more comfortable staying at home, playing more like Lucas usually plays: sitting deeper, covering defenders by sprinting from one flank to the other rather than eagerly charging forward and pressing high up the pitch, which can leave gaps at the back.

To be fair to the home side, they weren't the worst opposition Liverpool's faced this season. Unlike Aston Villa's 90 minutes of insipid torpor, Wolverhampton at least threatened a few times, especially during Liverpool's shaky first half. Edwards' flick forced a decent save from Reina in the 12th, Fletcher headed onto the roof of the net from a quick corner in the 28th, Kightly curled a shot wide in the 40th, and Ebanks-Blake nearly blasted in a hapax legomenon consolation from absolutely nowhere in the 86th.

Nonetheless, Liverpool will have few matches easier than this. It's welcomed relief to comprehensively beat a side that Liverpool expects to beat, one of the rare times that's happened this season, especially over the last few months. 3-0 for the second-straight match on this ground. "Can we play here every week?"

Bellamy was again Liverpool's star man, a constant threat, with twice as many shots on target as the next closest player and now Liverpool's top scorer in the league with his sixth goal in his last six league starts. But at least he had competition from other attackers this time. Carroll continues to improve, looking like a switch might have flicked: constantly closing down defenders, finding more attackers with flick-ons, and notching Liverpool's opener after getting behind covering midfielder Jonsson. Henderson was surprisingly energetic after his exertions in the last two matches, while Kuyt finally got his 50th league goal, scoring for the second-consecutive match. Both deeper midfielders were better after the break, Spearing for the reasons mentioned earlier and Adam for two more assists to extend his team-leading amount.

Winning becomes a habit. Too often, we've seen Liverpool disappoint in these matches and come out worse after the interval after failing to take advantage of a bright start. Not today. No matter the opposition's deficiencies, more of that please. It'll be needed with the run of fixtures Liverpool have ahead.

Liverpool at Wolves 01.31.12

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 09.24.11
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.22.11
0-1 Wolves (h) 12.29.10
0-0 (a) 01.26.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 United (h); 2-2 City (h); 1-3 Bolton (a)
Wolves: 2-3 Villa (h); 0-1 Brum (h); 1-1 Spurs (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 5; Adam, Carroll, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson 1
Wolves: Fletcher 9; Hunt, Ward 3; Doyle, Edwards, O'Hara 2; Ebanks-Blake, Jarvis, Kightly, Zubar 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor

You may remember Mr. Taylor from last season's lone Carling Cup match. Or 2-0 Stoke at Anfield. But probably more from the Carling Cup match.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Agger Johnson
Spearing Adam
Kuyt Shelvey Downing
Carroll

Same old story. With a tired team after two tough matches in the previous six days, who's available?

Thankfully, it seems Spearing will be back in action, which is even better news considering rumors that Gerrard was taken off against United after a hamstring twinge. Even if Gerrard's hamstrings are fine, whether the substitution was precautionary or tactical, I'd be surprised if he played tomorrow. He's started six consecutive games since returning from an extended absence, and keeping the captain fit has to be one of Dalglish's preeminent concerns.

It seems the perfect match to also bring Shelvey back into the fold, playing ahead of the hopefully-returning Spearing and Adam, who was left on the bench against United. If Liverpool play two up top, partnering Carroll with Kuyt or Bellamy, Shelvey could also start on either flank. Again, if Carroll's available after Saturday's exertions.

The front four (or three) is just as speculative. Liverpool have predominantly played one up top during Suarez's suspension (this is the last match of his ban), with the exceptions being Carroll and Bellamy up front at Bolton and a Kuyt and Bellamy pairing in the first half against Oldham. Neither were especially effective, to put it nicely; Carroll and Bellamy didn't do badly against Bolton, combining for Liverpool's lone goal, but everyone else sure did. The Welshman didn't start against United, but might again be more useful as a speedy, game-changing option off the bench. Energizer Bunny Kuyt, also used as a substitute against the Mancs, never needs a rest, finally in fine form following City and United, while Downing seems more likely than Maxi to stay in the side. Liverpool could also deploy something akin to a three-man strike force, with Bellamy and Kuyt on either side of Carroll.

Enrique has been one of Liverpool's better summer signings, but his form's dropped during the winter months. At fault for United's lone strike, with a similar error against Bolton nearly leading to a goal and unimpressively jogging back without covering on Bolton's second, if any defender needs a rest, it's the left-back. To be fair, he's started more matches than any other outfield player, one of only two outfield players (along with Adam) to start every league fixture. Agger's another who could use a break, but I'd imagine Dalglish will stick with his preferred central pairing if at all possible.

Wolves replaced Bolton in the bottom three after the Trotters' triumph over Liverpool last week. Winless since December 4 – with five losses and five draws over that spell – this is the exact type of fixture that Liverpool should take three points from but the exact type of fixture which rightfully strikes fear into fans' hearts this season. Admittedly, two of Wolves' five draws since December came in good performances at Arsenal and Tottenham, but Wolves have been suffering more often than not for the last two months, demonstrated by the rumors about replacing Mick McCarthy.

With Frimpong and O'Hara injured, and Karl Henry suspended, Wolves' cupboard is nearly bare in central midfield. McCarthy could try to shoehorn Hunt, Ward, or Jonsson in the middle with Edwards and Milijas, but a 4-4-2 with both Fletcher and Doyle or Ebanks-Blake up top looks more likely. Fletcher is far and away the biggest threat, with three times as many goals as his closest competitor. The Scot struck Wolves' early second half consolation in the reverse fixture at Anfield.

It goes without saying that Liverpool need to use last week's cup wins as the basis for improvement over the rest of the league campaign. Disappointing more often than not over the first 22 fixtures, Liverpool are still, somehow, just six points behind fourth and the holy grail that is Champions League qualification. Despite multiple setbacks, that's not an impossible task over the course of 16 matches. We're getting very close, though.

With the magical Suarez returning next time out against Tottenham, Liverpool have one more chance to prove there's goals in the side, especially against supposedly-inferior opposition, without its Uruguayan talisman. The cup runs have been both inspiring and warmly-welcomed, but the club have fewer and fewer chances to improve both its place and performances in the league.

Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United

Goals:
Agger 21'
Park 40'
Kuyt 88'

For the second match in a row: *shakes head* Football, man. Football.

A first half set play goal, followed by increased United pressure and the inevitable equalizer following a defensive mistake. In a 4-1-4-1 formation with Carragher holding in midfield, Liverpool were unable to settle on the ball, in a typically frenetic no-holds-barred cup game.

Then, Dalglish's substitutions changed the game. Bringing on Adam and Kuyt for Carragher and Maxi just after the hour mark allowed Liverpool a greater foothold, with Bellamy for Gerrard 10 minutes later giving Liverpool greater impetus going forward without conceding ground in the center of the park. Meanwhile, Ferguson's response, removing United's third midfielder – the tiring Paul Scholes – for a forward, matching Liverpool's 4-4-2 formation, ensured United were outnumbered in the middle, with Chicharito's theoretical release valve smothered by the impressive Skrtel. Kuyt's late winner, his first second goal of the season, came at the best possible time, a hammer blow with little Fergie time left for a comeback. It's the first late winner (in the final ten minutes) since Johnson's at Stamford Bridge in November, and only Liverpool's third of the season.

The home side had the first chances, with De Gea saving Maxi's fierce shot in the 4th and Gerrard unable to control Henderson's cross in space in the box five minutes later. Meanwhile, Valencia cannoned an effort off the bar after bursting down Liverpool's left in the 17th, cutting in after beating Maxi for pace. But Liverpool struck first, and on a corner no less. Carroll, parked in front of De Gea, cleared out the goalkeeper and three defenders, leaving plenty of space for Agger to connect with Gerrard's cross. His first goal of the season as well, I might add.

But Liverpool were unable to take advantage of the early lead. Dropping deep and unable to settle on the ball, United grew in ambition. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool paid the price for a singular mistake, as Rafael – easily United's best player in the first half – out-muscled Enrique far too easily, sped towards the byline, and cut back for an open Park parked on the penalty spot.

Liverpool needed some stellar defending soon after the restart, as Agger scrambled Giggs' cross out of the six-yard box and Skrtel did well to cover after Reina was exposed, chasing out of his area trying to close down Welbeck, who beat Liverpool's back line to a ball over the top.

Then came the game-changing substitutions. Kuyt provided far more of a threat than the again-disappointing Maxi, even prior to his winner, while Adam added far more to Liverpool's midfield going forward without the feared decline in overall defending. Bellamy replacing the gassed Gerrard was more of a surprise, but removing a midfielder for a striker, shifting to 4-4-2, didn't expose Liverpool in the slightest.

Still, a winner didn't look on the cards. Kuyt had a couple of half-chances – a shot from the top of the box blocked, a downward header from Downing's cross tamely wide – while Welbeck spectacularly spurned a couple of very speculative opportunities. Then, Kuyt popped up with a classic Route 1 goal with two minutes left. Reina punted the goal kick down-field following a wild Welbeck shot, Carroll easily beat Evans to the header, cushioning it perfectly for Kuyt to run onto with Evra caught ball-watching. Bursting into the box, De Gea was unable to save the Dutchman's powerful low shot, and the Kop absolutely erupted. Liverpool should have increased the final margin a minute later, again via Carroll and Kuyt, but the striker's back post point-black header hit the crossbar and the substitute could only toe-poke the rebound wide. Otherwise, the two, along with Henderson, trapped the ball at the corner flag for almost all of the three added minutes, with United wholly out of ideas.

Today was an excellent day for Liverpool's usual scapegoats. Carroll was probably man of the match, heavily involved in both goals. Kuyt scored the winner, with a second game-changing performance after a a few months of disappointment, another big game performance which hopefully marked another second-half-of-the-season resurgence. Adam's entrance vastly improved the side, Downing did well whether on the left or right. Outside of Enrique's mistake, Liverpool's defense rarely, if ever, looked like conceding; Skrtel, again impeccable, deserves special mention, as does Martin Kelly. But, like against City, it was a team-wide win, the proper response to last weekend's utter failure.

It wouldn't be Liverpool v United lately without a focus on off-field concerns. Evra was booed on every touch, which seemed to decrease as the match went on, coupled with reports of repeated Hillsborough chants from the away end (obviously, I wasn't there). More concerning were was a Liverpool fan photographed ostensibly making monkey gestures and a report of three United fans allegedly arrested for spitting on the Hillsborough memorial after the match (later denied by Merseyside Police; whoever started that rumor needs multiple smacks). All are regrettable and worthy of condemnation, the former two unfortunately expected and the latter two especially vile. There are bad people who support every club. Sadly, which probably says too much about what I expect from humanity, I expected worse. Pity there's another on the horizon so soon, with Liverpool traveling to Old Trafford in two weeks with Suarez back from suspension. Please, everyone, be better.

Despite the lamentable need to condemn idiots, all idiots, I really hope the actual football makes more headlines. It deserves to. Liverpool have truly responded to poor performances against Bolton and Stoke, deservingly beating City over two legs followed by yet another Anfield FA Cup win over United. Neither alleviates the long-standing concerns about beating sides Liverpool are supposed to beat, especially at home, but both results are incredibly welcome, far better than the alternative, and a sturdy platform for second-half improvement. Roll on, roll on.

Liverpool v Manchester United 01.28.12

7:45am ET, live in the US on FSC.

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 10.15.11
3-1 Liverpool (h) 03.06.11
0-1 United (a; FA Cup) 01.09.11
2-3 United (a) 09.19.10

Previous round:
Liverpool: 5-1 Oldham (h)
United: 3-2 City (a)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 City (h); 1-3 Bolton (a); 0-0 Stoke (h)
United: 2-1 Arsenal (a); 3-0 Bolton (h); 3-2 City (a)

Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 8; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Skrtel 2; Downing, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Kuyt, Shelvey 1
United: Rooney 18; Welbeck 9; Berbatov, Nani 8; Chicharito 6; Valencia 4; Giggs, Owen, Young 3; Anderson, Carrick, Fletcher, Jones, Park, Smalling 2; Macheda, Scholes 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson Mark Halsey

Atkinson was supposed to be in charge, but pulled out Thursday with a virus. Halsey, who hasn't refereed Liverpool in more than a year, is his replacement.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Gerrard Adam
Kuyt Henderson Downing
Carroll

A normal, subdued cup tie, then. Back to routine business after Wednesday's big match. What? Oh, right. Crap. So, do we just talk about the football, humming with fingers in ears pretending nothing but the match exists, hoping that the on-field play is all that'll be worth discussing? Yes. Yes we do.

Who starts for Liverpool is obviously, as always, contingent on who's fit after Wednesday's exertion.

It goes without saying that Bellamy has been Liverpool's best player recently, the main and sometimes only goal threat during Suarez's suspension. But he played 87 grueling minutes on Wednesday, which came after 90 minutes at Bolton. His knees have held up far better than expected (*knocks feverishly on wood*) but three games in a week, especially this week, seems a very long bridge too far.

Admittedly, there are worries about almost every player involved after City, after 90 minutes of high-pressure, heavy pressing, at times end-to-end football. And it's not as if Liverpool are spoilt for options. But that XI was basically Liverpool's best possible XI, and Dalglish will change it as little as possible.

The continuing absence of Spearing and Lucas pretty much demands three in central midfield based on recent evidence, and those three almost certainly have to be Gerrard, Adam, and Henderson. Dalglish spoke about possibly having Spearing back, which would be a massive boon, but I'm doubtful given that he couldn't make the bench two days ago.

Neither Kuyt nor Downing has set the world afire from the flanks, although both did well on Wednesday, but Maxi's been little better lately, we've already discussed Bellamy, and Shelvey's seen few chances. While it's grounded in less concrete concerns, I also fear for Agger, who's only recently gotten over a knock picked up in the first leg against City, caught flat-footed for City's near-winner second goal. And Carroll remains that disappointing expensive elephant in the blah blah blah you get the picture we've been here before.

United have multiple fitness problems of their own. Jones and Nani were injured against Arsenal, joining Young, Cleverly, Owen, Fletcher, and Vidic on the casualty list. Rooney, Ferdinand, and Anderson are also doubtful, but will play – especially the first two – if at all possible. Pity that United are one of the teams most capable of overcoming so many injuries.

The Mancs continue to be a creaky but deflatingly-effective crushing machine, three points behind City and on a three-game win streak having beaten both City and Arsenal following a two game slide against Newcastle and Blackburn bracketing the New Year. Even with the aforementioned players absent, Welbeck, Chicharito, and Berbatov can score goals from nothing, while Valencia's in resurgent form on the flanks. United's potential weakness come in the team's spine. Evans and Smalling have been unimpressive as a back-up pairing, the usual midfield of Carrick and Giggs can be out-numbered and overrun, and neither De Gea nor Lindegaard have been able to make the first-choice goalkeeper position their own.

United were surprisingly defensive in the previous meeting, lucky to come away with a draw when Chicharito got free on a set play, scoring with what was United's second (and only threatening) shot on target. It's doubtful that Ferguson will make the same mistakes, which will require Liverpool's midfield – which contained both Gerrard and Adam – to be as good, if not better, than in October's draw. Also, Liverpool need to take their chances blah blah blah you get the picture we've been here before.

Liverpool are missing key players, United are missing key players. It's a one-off cup tie, on Liverpool's ground. It'll be a typical English masterpiece: blood, thunder, sweat, tears, and kicking anything that moves. Anything can happen. Which, I assume, is something we're all afraid of. The other fear relates to that off-field nonsense we're not acknowledging in the hopes it won't rear its ugly head. La la la I can't hear you.

Liverpool 2-2 Manchester City

Liverpool win 3-2 on aggregate

Goals:
De Jong 31'
Gerrard 40' (pen)
Dzeko 67'
Bellamy 74'

*Shakes head* Football, man. Football.

So much for Liverpool holding what they had. This was no lock-down defensive effort. Liverpool played defense by attacking, and would have settled the tie far sooner if not for Joe Hart's continuing brilliance.

Liverpool played as they played for the first twenty minutes in the previous leg, taking the game to City, and could have been ahead within four minutes. Lescott's failed clearance fell to the feet of Enrique, somehow denied point-blank by Hart. Bellamy was an indescribable handful up front, and forced another excellent save with a strong turn and shot in the 21st. The all-action striker was supported by Downing, Henderson and Kuyt, with Adam and Gerrard deeper, Adam joining the attack more often than the captain.

City had more and more possession, but had been wholly blunted until the 31st, unable to enter the final third and unable to register a shot anywhere near the target. Until de Jong, of all players, found space 25 yards out when Adam stupidly chased Silva and the ball even though both were covered by Gerrard, leaving space for City's holding midfielder to cannon a shot he'll never be able to replicate. One shot on target, one goal.

But Liverpool weren't behind for long. Unlike against Bolton, or in other dreadful disappointments, heads didn't drop. Nine minutes later, Adam partly made amends by starting a move which won the penalty, brilliantly shifting into space past Barry, with his cross deflected out to Agger, the same player who won the penalty in the last meeting. City fans and contrarian "neutrals" will decry the decision, as Agger's shot struck Richards' leg before hitting his arm, but Richards probably shouldn't have had both hands above his head to block a goal-bound effort. Gerrard's penalty was a carbon copy of the last, and Hart had even less of a chance to stop this one.

Back ahead, Liverpool didn't look to change tactics after the interval. And although City made a half-time substitution, bringing on Agüero for the hapless Savic (having strangely played three center-backs in the first half), Liverpool remained the more-attacking side. Hart repeated earlier excellence with wonderful saves to deny Skrtel and Downing within ten minutes of the whistle. But then City struck again. Quickly countering with Glen Johnson caught upfield, Kolarov eluded Gerrard, with his cross met by Dzeko inches from goal as Agger didn't track his run. Two shots on target, two goals. Meanwhile, Liverpool had taken somewhere around 15 at this point.

But what looked to be a hammer blow, yet another nail in a coffin full of them, was only a seven-minute setback. Bellamy, who looked out on his feet, ready to be substituted any minute, restored Liverpool's aggregate lead after lovely interplay with Kuyt and Johnson: Kuyt cut in from the right and found Bellamy in the box, and Bellamy played a wonderful one-two with the advancing Johnson before slotting past his former teammate. It's always nice when a narrative comes to fruition.

Unsurprisingly, Liverpool were under pressure for the final 15 minutes, and City actually registered shots on target which didn't go in. Substitute Adam Johnson shot tamely at Reina following unbelievable recovery speed from Enrique, while the otherwise uninvolved Agüero bicycled straight at the keeper in injury time. Agger also had to be on hand to block Dzeko's scrambled close-range effort in the 87th, right before Dalglish replaced Bellamy with another defender in Martin Kelly.

For once, attack serves as the best form of defense for Liverpool, which is a welcome but rare occurrence this season. Bellamy was indescribably important, a release valve with his pace, a non-stop irascible handful who put City under constant pressure. His reward is facing another former club in the final. Gerrard was Liverpool's other standout, playing as the deepest midfielder. It's no coincidence both Silva and Agüero were almost nonexistent with the captain in that position. And, with Liverpool using a five-man midfield, his partnership with Adam was vastly improved, despite the Scot's role in City's opener. Henderson was also excellent as the most advanced midfielder, while Kuyt had what was easily his best match of this otherwise forgettable season.

I hate to be Captain Buzzkill, but this obviously doesn't excuse poor performance after poor performance against all those sides we expected Liverpool to beat. If anything, it makes those performances more infuriating. Once again, Liverpool hit heights against top-quality opposition, at their best against the best. Tactics, personnel, and individual performances all ranged from mostly faultless to supremely impressive.

And now, with the first trip to the new Wembley on the horizon – Liverpool's first trip to any Wembley for 16 seasons – hopefully this performance will serve as the confidence boost and catalyst we've been waiting months for.

Liverpool v Manchester City 01.25.12

Liverpool lead 1-0 on aggregate.

2:45pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a) 01.11.12
0-3 City (a) 01.03.12
1-1 (h) 11.27.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.11.11

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Chelsea (a); 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-1 Brighton (a); 3-1 Exeter (a)
City: 1-0 Arsenal (a); 5-2 Wolves (a); 2-0 Brum (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Bolton (a); 0-0 Stoke (h); 1-0 City (a)
City: 3-2 Tottenham (h); 1-0 Wigan (a); 0-1 Liverpool (h)

Goalscorers (Carling Cup):
Liverpool: Suarez 3; Maxi 2; Bellamy, Carroll, Gerrard, Kelly, Kuyt 1
City: Dzeko 2; Agüero, Balotelli, Johnson, Hargreaves, Nasri 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Gerrard Spearing
Downing Henderson Bellamy
Kuyt

What exactly did Dalglish mean by "If that's the level they [the players] expect this football club to play at, they won't be here long"? More importantly, who exactly was he referring to?

Sure, we all have guesses. Educated guesses, no less. And everyone has their favored scapegoat, almost certainly bought last summer. My guesses are immediately evident from the two usual starters missing in the line-up predicted above. The fact remains that they're still guesses. Nonetheless, there will assuredly be changes from Saturday's line-up. Heads have rolled and are probably still rolling.

Despite being at Anfield, Liverpool will probably protect their lead and look to counter. Dalglish may well deploy the three at the back as against Stoke and in the last stages of the last leg, but keeping faith with the preferred back four seems safer, even after conceding three at Bolton. Inviting City pressure is loosening the thread which holds the sword of Damocles over the club, but a compact, cagey game should suit Liverpool far more than the opposition. At Anfield, Liverpool should be more expansive than at the Etihad two weeks ago, but this will not be a 4-0 romp of Real Madrid; the template will still be based more on this season's wins at Chelsea and City. At the least, that Liverpool are protecting a lead and are facing difficult opposition means we shouldn't see the much-maligned, easily criticized 4-4-2 formation.

If Kuyt does play up top – as often happens in "big games," no matter his current struggles – or even if it's Carroll again, Liverpool have to have to have to get runners from midfield forward when attacking, whether Bellamy, Downing, Maxi, Henderson, Kuyt, or whomever play behind the striker(s). That was the biggest problem in the second half of the last leg, the biggest problem against Stoke, and one of many problems last Saturday.

Central midfield remains the other overriding concern. It's ever so strange to write, but if he's fit, the midfield is Spearing plus two. And Spearing's fitness is crucial. The loss at Bolton dreadfully exposed Gerrard and Adam's limitations as a midfield pairing. Liverpool need a defensive midfielder, even more so than Liverpool need added firepower. Some teams are able to excel without one – most notably the Mancs, who often use a Giggs-Carrick partnership. Liverpool have not been able to do similar at any time this season. Liverpool need a water-carrier, someone to do the dirty work to free up the likes of Gerrard, Adam, and Henderson. Right now, Spearing looks the only player on the roster with that ability.

Having Henderson in the hole, even though he was another of Saturday's disappointments, provides a willing runner who'll also help solidify the spine, and moves him into a position where he's far more comfortable. Shelvey is another possibility who can deliver similar, but that he's only started at Villa in mid-December and against Oldham three weeks ago is a clue that he probably won't start here either.

Balotelli will probably join Kompany on the FA's blacklist, as City have until tomorrow to decide whether to appeal the Italian's four-game suspension for "stamping" on Scott Parker. City should probably count their blessings that Lescott isn't suspended as well for smashing his forearm into Kaboul's face; the already-thin defense would miss Lescott far more than City's attack will miss Balotelli. With both Toures still at the African Cup of Nations, the back-line is likely to be the same as in the last leg: Richards-Savic-Lescott-Clichy. No matter the missing players, predicting City's midfield and attack is a bit harder.

The league leaders have played 13 domestic away fixtures in the league and cups. They've scored at least two goals in seven, winning four of those matches by at least two goals, the margin which would ensure victory tomorrow. However, those seven games with at least two goals were the first seven away fixtures of the season. Starting with November's 1-1 draw at Anfield, City have two wins, two draws, and two losses on the road, scoring no more than once in each. Winning 1-5 at Spurs and 1-6 at United seems like a long time ago, especially after a 0-0 draw at West Brom and a 0-1 injury time loss at Sunderland. Nonetheless, Liverpool are certainly well aware of City's potential for those egregious score lines. You know the murderer's row attack: Agüero, Silva, Nasri, Milner, Dzeko, Johnson, etc. etc. Any one of those players can single-handedly destroy Liverpool's Wembley hopes if given the opportunity. So don't give them the opportunity.

That Liverpool have usually been at their best against the best and that Dalglish will undoubtedly demand a response to the abortion at Bolton should provide fans some needed optimism. If nothing else, a mid-week Anfield night with a cup final at stake should be inspiration enough for whoever lines up on the pitch.

Winter Blues

"Now is the winter of our discontent."




Yikes.

Liverpool have averaged 1.00 points per game or fewer in eight months over the last four-and-a-half seasons – eight of 46 months during this time frame. Three were in January, including this season, with one in December. Half of Liverpool's horrible months since the 2007-08 season have come during winter, under Benitez, Hodgson, and Dalglish.

Admittedly, January isn't quite over with just yet. If Liverpool win at Wolves on the 31st, it will bump this season's January average all the way up to 1.00 points per game. Which will still be worse than just four other months since the start of 2007-08. A draw would lead to an average of 0.50 points per game; a loss an average of 0.25. If Liverpool don't win in nine days, it'll be the worst month during this span, possibly tied with the end of 2009-10 when Liverpool lost to Chelsea and drew at Hull with nothing to play for. No matter next week's result, this month's average will be really, really not good. The highest the four-and-a-half season January average can climb is 1.33 points per game, still worse than the next-closest month by more than a third of a point.

January cost Liverpool its long-desired league title in 2008-09. It nearly cost Liverpool Champions League qualification in 2007-08 if not for a remarkable run to finish that campaign, not unlike the subsequent season. December plus the first match in January were the final blow to Hodgson's ill-fated rotten regime. And while Liverpool's results clearly improved after Dalglish took the reins, last January would have been Dalglish's worst month of the campaign if not for two tepid losses to close the season once Champions League qualification was finally a lost cause. The best January in recent history came in 2009-10, that abhorrent campaign which saw Benitez get the sack, which should tell you how strange that season truly was.

That Liverpool are historically awful during this month is little consolation for the team's recent troubles. But we've seen this script before, even if this season's script is frustratingly far more goal-shy and frustratingly far more frustrating given heightened expectations.

Selfishly, this is all the evidence Liverpool fans need for a winter break. And from now on, we'll just tell Liverpool players than every month is March.

Month-by-month statistics in the comments section.

Liverpool 1-3 Bolton

Goals:
M Davies 4'
Reo-Coker 29'
Bellamy 36'
Steinsson 50'

So is this what FSG feared when appointing Dalglish? A manager that should be, hopefully, exempt from criticism, but there has been so much to criticize in tactics, personnel, and transfer dealings lately. Let alone the performances from those on the pitch. Hodgson was absolutely excoriated for games like this. Being the best player and one of the most-successful managers in Liverpool history can't save Dalglish from similar, if deservedly less vehement.

I can't keep making excuses, and probably have to finally admit I've been proven wrong. The jury I've tried to keep hung keeps delivering its verdict louder and louder. Liverpool's summer signing scapegoats still aren't clicking, and still don't look like doing so. More bad games than good means the bad games aren't aberrations. Still just six points behind fourth, but again failing to take advantage of competitors' results means that the Champions League looks less and less likely for yet another season.

It's another terrible performance against a relegation-threatened side, as in losses to Blackpool and West Ham last season and in draws against Blackburn and Wigan (and arguably others) this season. It's the first loss to Bolton in 11 tries, a comprehensive defeat to the side with the worst home record in all four divisions. With this win, Bolton move out of the bottom three for the first time this season.

It was the type of performance that can push even a sycophant like me over the edge. The tone was set when Bolton carved open Liverpool's 4-4-2 within four minutes. The home side got at a disjointed, second-best Liverpool immediately, and Davies easily burst behind Liverpool's midfield from Ngog's flick-on when no one tracked his run, sliding his shot past Reina before Skrtel could recover.

Liverpool had little response for the early concession and continued to look completely insipid. Bolton could have had a second soon after, but Eagles could only cross across the face of goal after beating Enrique all ends up. The only reason Bellamy and Carroll were marginally exempt from criticism was because the other nine Liverpool players couldn't create anything. Unlike in recent setbacks, chances weren't coming at all.

Bolton added an improbable second in the 29th, again carving open Liverpool like that clichéd Thanksgiving turkey. Eagles, Reo-Coker, and Ngog excellently combined on a throw-in, with Liverpool embarrassingly static; Eagles' chip found Reo-Coker charging into the box unmarked, controlling with his chest then firing past Reina.

Finally finding a semblance of attack when two down, Bellamy and Carroll pulled one back in the 36th, as Bellamy charged onto Carroll's header after Adam headed Bogdan's goal kick out of defense, beating Knight for pace before slotting home. An equalizer even looked possible before the interval, as Bogdan saved shots from the goal-scorer and Gerrard.

It didn't take long for Bolton to destroy that optimistic notion after the restart. Again, Liverpool started sloppily and again, Liverpool paid for it, this time on a set play. Wheater, out-jumping Skrtel, headed Petrov's corner up and Steinsson classily volleyed it in. The clearly unconfident side had little heart to try to fight back from a two-goal deficit again, and the final forty minutes were a depressing formality. Kuyt and Downing replaced Maxi and Adam, who were probably Liverpool's worst players today, but neither made the side any more cohesive. Liverpool's subsequent half-chances followed the stereotypical script. Agger cannoned a shot off the crossbar. Carroll hilariously whiffed when open for Maxi's cutback. Bellamy selfishly shot at Bogdan when Liverpool broke in the 78th, a deflection making it easy for the keeper. I can't even think of any consolation chances in the last 10 minutes, with Liverpool solely focused on leaving the Reebok as soon as possible.

Where Liverpool go from here is the crucial question. Somehow, Dalglish has to restore self-belief when absolutely none is evident. Earlier this season, Liverpool played well but couldn't take advantage for any number of unfortunate reasons. Now, Liverpool are struggling in every section of the pitch and are getting exactly what they deserve. It's no coincidence Liverpool are far, far worse without Lucas and Suarez, but no one expected them to suffer this mightily. That Liverpool went 4-4-2 with Gerrard and Adam in midfield and Henderson and Maxi out "wide," no matter previous results, is mostly unexplainable and nearly unforgivable.

Panicked January spending probably isn't the answer. Another new manager almost certainly isn't the answer. But something, lots of things, need to change. And very, very quickly.