Liverpool 3-3 Everton

Goals:
Coutinho 5'
Mirallas 8'
Suarez 19'
Lukaku 72' 82'
Sturridge 89'

Two managers who value style, sometimes at the expense of substance, with progressive passing philosophies. Surely this won't be just another blood and thunder Merseyside derby?

Ha. Hahaha. Yeah, right.

There's no escape from the crushing weight of inevitability and there's no escape from chaos in this fixture. Uncontrollable chaos and disorder and anarchy and insanity and my heart, my heart, I think I'm having a coronary.

Six set plays goals, missed sitters and miraculous saves, mental defensive mistakes and marvelous last-ditch stops, obvious red cards ignored, Phil Dowd being Phil Dowd. The opening goal within five minutes, the final goal in the 89th, the highest scoring Merseyside derby in league history.

Phew. I'm exhausted. Just spent. Utterly, utterly spent.

Everton as expected, 4-2-3-1 with Barkley preferred to Osman for more attacking impetus. Liverpool without Sturridge thanks to Roy Hodgson's brilliance, bringing in Joe Allen to pack the midfield, with both Allen and Gerard ahead of Lucas in something of a 4-1-4-1.

Last week's first two goals against Fulham proved the importance of set plays. Liverpool's become surprisingly good at them. That remained the case today. A corner won from Liverpool's first attack, Gerrard's defense-destroying long ball awkwardly headed behind by Coleman, Gerrard's corner to Suarez leading to a blocked shot but Coutinho wide, wide, wide open at the back post to flick into the net. Unbridled ecstasy, but a clear memory of when Liverpool took an early lead on this ground last season.

Which would prove appropriate within three minutes, when Everton took advantage of their first set play: Baines' free kick following Coutinho's foul, Henderson out of position and Skrtel caught on the back foot, out-muscled by Barkley and only able to head directly into Mirallas' path for another back post tap-in.

Liverpool should have conceded a second thanks to a giveaway in midfield but were saved by Mignolet – both of these would happen a few more times – then Liverpool scored a second, again from a set play. Suarez's swirling, unerring free kick, bent around the wall in defiance of Newtonian physics, as he's done time and time again for Liverpool.

But that'd be Liverpool's last shot of the half. Everton dominance, roared on by the Goodison crowd, pinning Liverpool back as they did on this ground last season, but failing to make the most of the possession, with Mignolet called in to action just once, reacting late but outstandingly to push Barkley's half-shot, half-cross past the post, with three other chances well wide of the target.

Then, controversy, as only Everton and Liverpool and Phil Dowd can provide.



That's a red card. That's a red card every day of the week. Two red cards on Sundays, in fact. This fixture's seen more red cards than any other in the Premier League, but this is the same fixture where this wasn't a red card. I wish I were surprised but I'm not surprised I've seen this movie before. Also, it was probably Luis Suarez's fault anyway.

Between Liverpool's second and Everton's second, Mignolet made three outstanding saves: the aforementioned first on Barkley, denying Defoleu and Lukaku twice, three of those chances coming on the break, all three starting with Liverpool giveaways.

Amongst those chances came Liverpool's first open play shot, directly on the hour mark. A trademark Suarez dribble somehow someway breaking through a wall of three defenders, falling perfectly for Joe Allen, somehow someway placed wide on the near post when unhindered from 10 yards out. Head in hands, heart in stomach.

Having failed to seize the moment, it was little surprise when Everton finally equalized for the second time. Mignolet called into action yet again, palming away Lukaku's deflected free kick from the same position where Suarez scored his, but Liverpool unable to clear, the set-play taker finding the net from 12 yards out, unforgivably in acres of space to fortunately receive a re-directed pullback.

Another chance for a Liverpool third, conjured from nothing, Gerrard's outstanding cross sent straight to Suarez at the back-post but headed straight at the sprawling Tim Howard. Another Everton break, again foiled by Mignolet, but followed but another Everton set play and another punch to the midsection, again from Romelu Lukaku. I don't know why the burly Belgian man child was being marked by Johnson and aided by Flanagan, but needless to say, it didn't work well. Mushroom cloud atom bomb, yet another seemingly undeserved setback despite so much that's gone Liverpool's way this season.

But maybe there's some justice in this universe because there was still time for one more Liverpool set play. And one more goal from a Liverpool set play. Moses, on as a substitute 20 minutes earlier, fouled by Distin on the right flank. Gerrard lines up, takes the lob wedge out of the golf bag, asks his caddy for the distance to the pin, and sends in a perfect cross for Sturridge between three defenders, flicked in from the near post. If only Liverpool could just bring the captain on for set plays. I've said it before, and I'll hopefully get to say it again. For all the holes in Liverpool's midfield, partly of Gerrard's making, his delivery's better than it's ever been.

And that's not all folks. It nearly ended 4-3 for the good guys, but Moses could only head over from Suarez's cross, Suarez's snap shot was well parried by Howard, and Sturridge was well, well offside when ramming the subsequent corner into the back of the net. It'd have been fitting were it given after what happened with last season's late offside decision on this ground, but there isn't that much justice in this universe.

There's little point in tactical analysis for this fixture. It was interesting to see Allen preferred in Sturridge's absence, leading to two midfielders ahead of Lucas as holder, but Liverpool's midfield still went missing at inopportune times. Maybe it's a different match if Sturridge is fit enough to start (thanks again, Roy!) but maybe Everton are even more dominant in possession without the third midfielder. Liverpool's good on set plays, but sometimes not so good at defending them. Mignolet's been a revelation, better than the most optimistic could expect, but he shouldn't have been put in most of those positions by his midfield or defense. Suarez and Sturridge continue to carry Liverpool. Flanagan, despite a couple of frights, made the most of his chance, and will probably continue to feature in Enrique's absence.

A draw's probably a fair result, but there's a lot to rue from Liverpool's point of view.

Just another Merseyside derby after all.

Liverpool v Everton 01.16.11

9am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
0-2 Everton (a) 10.17.10
1-0 Liverpool (h) 02.06.10
2-0 Liverpool (a) 11.29.09
0-1 Everton (a; FA Cup) 02.04.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Blackpool (a); 0-1 United (a); 1-3 Blackburn (a)
Everton: 5-1 Scunthorpe (a); 2-1 Spurs (h); 0-2 Stoke (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 7; Gerrard 4; Kuyt, Maxi 3; Kyrgiakos, Ngog 2; Babel, Cole, Johnson, Skrtel 1
Everton: Cahill 9; Arteta, Coleman 3; Baines, Beckford 2; Pienaar, Saha, Yakubu 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

The last time Phil Dowd took charge of a Merseyside derby was March 2006. Gerrard and van der Meyde were sent off, Dowd showed yellow to 10 other players, and Liverpool won 3-1.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Kyrgiakos Agger Aurelio
Maxi Meireles Lucas Babel
Kuyt Torres

There's no better way to restore confidence than beating the city rivals.

I doubt Liverpool will persist with the 4-3-3 we saw against Blackpool. Whether than leads to 4-1-4-1/4-2-3-1 formation or a 4-4-2 in the absence of Gerrard remains to be seen. At the least, most of the players rested against Blackpool should come back into the side.

Despite recent form, Kuyt has to play. He's called "The Scourge of the Mongrels" for a reason, with four goals and two assists in eight starts against Everton. I'm sure it's just coincidence he was injured for the meeting earlier this season and Liverpool lost 0-2. Actually, yeah, it was coincidence; Liverpool were simply awful that day. But games against Everton are tailor-made for the Dutchman.

I've guessed a 4-4-2 formation to get Kuyt closer to goal, in the hopes it helps raise his game. Maxi should start on one of the flanks, with Babel or Cole on the other; Cole should be fit despite not playing in the last two matches. I think Babel's pace would be more of a boon, but we'll see if he's in contention. I'm tempted to believe he was held out against Blackpool as punishment for the Twitter fiasco which saw him charged by the FA.

Kelly's done a job when called upon in the last two games, and was excellent against United, but I'm still worried about 'too much, too soon.' Playing three tough games in a week is a lot to ask of a 20-year-old defender. I'm guessing a return for Kyrgiakos because of Skrtel's inconsistency – he was back to his shaky ways against Blackpool – not because of his enduring friendship with Fellaini, but it's just as likely that the Slovakian will start on Sunday.

Everton will be without a number of recognizable names. Like Liverpool's Brad Jones, top-scorer Tim Cahill is away at Asian Cup. Leicester have signed Yakubu on loan for the rest of the season. And there are also rumors that Pienaar will be sold in the next couple of days – although some have stated he's just signed a pre-contract agreement – which should preclude his participation as well.

The Blues are level on points with Liverpool, one place ahead of the Reds on goal difference. In the absence of Cahill, Moyes deployed two strikers against Scunthorpe and Tottenham, starting both Saha and Beckford instead of his usual 4-5-1 formation. Arteta's a frequent threat, while young right-winger Seamus Coleman's been in fine form this season.

It's fitting that Dalglish's first game at Anfield is against Everton. Not because Everton were his last opponents during his first stint as Liverpool boss, but because of the importance of Merseyside derbies. Last October's match excepted, Liverpool are almost always up for these games – combative and feisty even during poor runs of form.

This match is massive for both clubs, both just four points above the relegation zone. We've seen much written about turning points and false dawns over the last 18 months, but a win – for either side – on Sunday will set them up well for the rest of the season.

And because of the return of the King, Anfield will be rocking down to its foundation. The team simply has to respond.

Liverpool 1-2 Tottenham

Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Insua
Mascherano Lucas
Kuyt Gerrard Babel
Torres

Goals:
Assou-Ekottu 44’
Gerrard 56’ (pen)
Bassong 59’

Good start!

The only “big four” side to drop points, let alone lose, and my sole riposte is that it’s the same result as last year’s fixture. Sigh. Liverpool again paid the price for their defending on two set plays. Double sigh. Get the daggers out…

I’ll get it out of the way now. Yes, I think Assou-Ekotto’s shove on Voronin in the 86th was a crystal clear penalty. So did Sammy Lee, who was sent to the stands for complaining. But it wasn’t given. Phil Dowd may have been awful today, but that’s football, and nowhere near enough of an excuse.

Liverpool’s modus operandi was revealed when Babel got the nod over both Benayoun and Riera (who didn’t even make the squad). The team would set out in the standard 4-2-3-1 and look to counter-attack with pace, allowing the home side more possession in the hopes of unlocking the defense on the break. Needless to say, it didn’t work in the slightest.

The first third of the game was utterly devoid of chances. Liverpool’s first effort came in the 29th, when Gerrard shot wide from distance after a ball lumped forward from defense. The only moment of note prior was a frightening 18th minute collision between Carragher and Skrtel that saw both bloodied and Carra bandaged, although both stayed on – at least until Skrtel finally went off in the 75th, replaced by Ayala. I suspect the lingering effects of that accident didn’t help the defending.

Following Gerrard’s effort, Spurs came to life, and only Reina’s heroics kept Keane from scoring. First, Reina saved the Irishman’s point blank header after Modric’s cross in the 30th. Four minutes later, the former Liverpool striker was denied after beating the offside trap, while Defoe – all 5'7" of him – headed wide from the subsequent corner. In the 42nd, Keane tallied a hat-trick of misses, shooting wildly when open from 15 yards.

Meanwhile, Liverpool struggled to respond. Hopeful punts from defense, usually in the direction of Kuyt or Torres, found the players isolated and Spurs soon regained possession. Huddlestone and Palacios, both deep-lying midfielders, stopped Liverpool from launching any breaks. Torres couldn’t get into the game, while Babel was often invisible. Gerrard and Kuyt both put in the effort to try and win the ball, as did Mascherano in his own half (as usual), but it was frequently futile, and honestly, everyone except Reina was sub par.

The dam finally burst in the 44th. A free kick from Huddlestone ricocheted right to Assou-Ekotto, and the left back thumped a thunderbolt into the far corner from something like 30 yards. Despite Spurs’ superiority, it took a wonder goal to break the deadlock. Right before halftime, when Liverpool would have had the chance to regroup. Awesome.

11 minutes after the restart, after Liverpool had marginally upped the tempo to begin the half, the £17m signing brought his team back into the game. Finally delivering one of those trademark runs forward, Johnson broke into the box, sidestepped Gomes, and forced the keeper into a penalty. Gerrard duly tallied it, straight down the middle over a despairing keeper.

Three minutes later, Liverpool gave it all away. Modric’s free kick after Carragher’s foul found debutant Bassong between two defenders, and he smashed a header past Reina. Easy come, easy go. From there, Liverpool huffed and puffed as Tottenham was increasingly happy to protect the 2-1 lead.

The away side were limited to half chances – a Torres header under pressure sent wide and a Benayoun shot deflected for a corner after the Israeli jerked into space were the two most memorable – before the aforementioned no-call in the 86th. Voronin was clearly pushed off the ball, and while Gomes was charging, the Ukrainian could have gotten a shot off. Maybe Dowd was hesitant after giving the previous penalty. Maybe Dowd, who had brandished at least six yellows by my count, had just lost control of the game because he’s a shitty referee. Either way, it shouldn’t have come to that.

I love that we get the chance to write the eulogy after the first game of the season. And I really have no defense. The team was as out of sorts as during preseason. Liverpool (gulp) missed Alonso’s metronomic presence in midfield. The defense was sketchy, especially after the collision between Skrtel and Carragher, both already carrying knocks. The Babel gambit was a complete failure, to put it bluntly, and even a sub par Liverpool were clearly better after Benayoun came on. Today highlighted why I was so insistent Liverpool should buy a left-sided attacker, although I derive zero joy in writing that given the result. There’s still time if Hicks and Gillett can find some spare change under the sofa cushions.

You can never write anyone off after the first month, let alone the first game. But Liverpool showed absolutely none of the potential that made me think this could be a title-winning team.

Stoke on Wednesday, and it’s not on TV in the States.

On Suarez and Gerrard at West Brom

"Even if Liverpool gets better production from the supporting cast – and honestly, there's seemingly nowhere to go but up in that category – as [Suarez and Gerrard] go, so goes Liverpool."

I hate being right.

And yesterday, in the first match of the league campaign, Suarez misfired and Gerrard had little influence on proceedings, and Liverpool failed to take advantage when in control then succumbed to a wonder goal followed by multiple defensive errors and a sending-off. We're all well aware it's the not first time that's happened, and it most likely won't be the last. Agger and Skrtel's mistakes, Downing and Borini's ineffectiveness, and Phil Dowd being Phil Dowd also played a large role in Liverpool's inadequacy, but it sure felt like the rot started at the top.

Suarez's shooting



That's abhorrent accuracy, and yet Suarez was the only Liverpool player to put a shot on target. All three of Gerrard's were off target, while Borini, Cole, Downing, Johnson and Kelly took one and missed one. Two of Suarez's shots, the two off-target from inside the six-yard box, were clear-cut chances, errant headers from Johnson and Borini's excellent crosses. The first, mistiming his jump for Johnson's cross after good work from the stand-in left back on the half-hour mark, sure felt like a turning point when West Brom opened the scoring 13 minutes later.

But this is nothing new. Suarez had one of the worst clear-cut chance conversion rates in the league last season.

Opta's definition of a clear-cut chance:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.

Suarez converted seven of his 25 clear-cut chances last season – 28%. Rooney? 17 of 29 (59%). Agüero? 13 of 27 (48%). Van Persie? 18 of 40 (45%). But those were three of the league's best finishers. However, this EPL Index chart (from this article) lists 33 attackers; just six had a worse conversion rate: Bendtner, Bale, Carroll, Defoe, Gervinho, and Kuyt. The league average was 39%; had Suarez converted at that rate, he would have scored three more goals last season.

His shooting accuracy against West Brom was even worse than last season's abysmal return. 48 of his 128 total shots in 2011-12 were on target – 38% – compared to yesterday's 25%. He took eight or more shots in just one match, with 11 in the 1-1 draw against Norwich (the most any player took in a Premier League match last season), and at least tested Ruddy with six of those 11 even if he didn't score, including one near-miraculous save in the fifth minute of added time to preserve the draw.

Dan Kennett wrote extensively on this topic for The Tomkins Times back in March, and his findings remain relevant.

There will be matches where Suarez's is unerring, where Suarez scores in style early and often. Unfortunately, after 54 matches for Liverpool, those like his hat-trick against Norwich have become the exception rather than the rule. Admittedly, it's slightly easier to forgive missed chances when the player creates so many of the chances by himself. But his two best opportunities yesterday came from crosses put on a plate by Johnson and Borini, and he failed to hit the target on either.

I'm not necessarily saying that Suarez needs to be used differently, especially this early into Rodgers' reign. There's the temptation to demand he plays wide, not used as the main goal-scorer, which will only increase if this trend continues. And his talents might serve Liverpool just as well, if not better, on the flank. But his ability to run off the shoulder of the last man, to drag defenders out of position with his movement or with the ball at his feet, and his ability to involve others in the attack seem suited for his current role. He played on the flanks more often at Ajax, but it's no coincidence he's also become the central #9 for Uruguay since joining Liverpool.

However, if Suarez is going to play as a #9 in Rodgers' system, even if a roaming #9, a #9 as focused on creating as much as scoring, he needs to better that scoring return. And quickly.

Gerrard's passing



56 passes attempted, 46 completed. Just 17 passes into the attacking third, completing 12, with only one incomplete pass inside the penalty area.

Allen, Lucas, Suarez, Johnson, and Borini all completed more passes in that crucial area of the pitch. Gerrard's completion percentage in the final third was 71% – only Downing (7/10), Skrtel (1/5), and Reina (0/2) were less accurate, and both Skrtel and Reina were limited to long hoofed passes from their own half. Agger's red card started from one of those five unsuccessful attacking third passes, the mistake compounded by losing possession with so many Liverpool players in West Brom's half, as both Allen and Lucas went forward when Gerrard dropped deeper to receive possession.



Gerrard's overall pass completion percentage from open play was 82%, the worst of any outfield Liverpool player. And it's not as if the sending-off made him any less accurate, pushing too hard to try to haul Liverpool back; he was 27/33 when Agger went off, again, 82% completed, with nine of 11 successful in the attacking third but none of those 11 into the penalty box.



Gerrard also created two chances against West Brom – only Glen Johnson created more, with three – but both were fairly poor excuses for chances. The first, in the 50th minute, was when he spread play wide to Downing, with the winger running into traffic then taking an easily-blocked shot. The second came after Liverpool were down to 10 and down by two goals, in the 72nd minute, when he spread play wide to Cole, with the winger running into traffic then taking an easily-blocked shot.

There was little of the one-touch quick passing with Suarez, Borini, and Downing that caused so many problems against Gomel and Leverkusen. Gerrard passed to Suarez just five times; Allen and Kelly was Gerrard's most frequent targets, receiving eight and seven passes respectively from the captain. On the other hand, Suarez set Gerrard up 11 times – only Kelly to Skrtel, Johnson to Agger, and Agger to Johnson were more frequent combinations – but just one of those passes came inside the penalty area and just two were forward passes, one in the center circle and one where Gerrard burst forward from midfield ahead of the ball, as has been so crucial in the past.



And his crosses? Six attempted, zero successful. Borini also attempted six, but at least completed one – that one clear-cut chance for Suarez – while no other player attempted more than four. Incidentally, Liverpool delivered 22 crosses in total – they averaged 22.1 per match last season, the most in the league – but completed just three, a success rate of 14% where they averaged 19% in 2011-12. Needless to remind, but it was not a very successful tactic last season.

Moving Gerrard into a more attacking position was supposed to make him more influential, but he couldn't have been much less so on Saturday. Still, days like that will happen; time makes fools of us all and whatnot. But even when that happens, Gerrard's leadership and mentality remain vital qualities. They are more intangible qualities, but as captain, it's Gerrard's job to ensure heads don't drop and Liverpool keep playing after setbacks like Agger's red card or the second penalty. But Liverpool looked beaten as soon as West Brom's second went in; the last 25 minutes weren't even damage control, but playing out the clock, and it was little surprise that West Brom added a third. It wasn't the first time a team crumbled to dust after a sending off and it won't be the last, and, of course, a comeback was massively unlikely. But you never want to see the players look as if they believe that. All too often, Liverpool rolled over and died at the first sign of trouble last season. That trait cannot carry over into this one. Taking responsibility in an interview today, for the first penalty concession if little else, is a reassuring step, but words are far easier than deeds.

During this transitional phase with a new manager and a new system, Liverpool will rely on its established stars to carry them through difficult spells. It may not necessarily be fair to hold them to a higher standard, but it's warranted. Despite all else that occurred against West Brom – Dowd's decisions, Agger and Skrtel's penalties, inefficient flank play – when both Suarez and Gerrard disappoint, it's no surprise that Liverpool loses.

Liverpool at Chelsea 11.29.11

2:45pm ET, live in the US only on FoxSoccer.tv, so most of us will have to make do with streams again. There is a delayed showing on Fox Soccer Plus at 5pm ET.

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 11.20.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 11.07.10
0-2 Chelsea (h) 05.02.10

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-1 Brighton (a); 3-1 Exeter (a)
Chelsea: 2-1 Everton [aet] (a); 0-0 Fulham [4-3 pens] (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 City (h); 2-1 Chelsea (a); 0-0 Swansea (h)
Chelsea: 3-0 Wolves (h); 1-2 Leverkusen (a); 1-2 Liverpool (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 7; Carroll 3; Adam, Bellamy, Maxi 2; Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Kuyt, Skrtel 1
Chelsea: Lampard, Sturridge 7; Mata, Ramires, Terry, Torres 4; Drogba, Kalou 2; Anelka, Boswinga, Ivanovic, Luiz, Malouda, Meireles 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Dowd missed his weekend assignment due to illness, but should be available for tomorrow's match.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Coates Aurelio
Downing Lucas Spearing Maxi
Carroll Bellamy

Been awhile since Liverpool faced this lot, eh? More importantly, it's been awhile since Liverpool had a Carling Cup game at Anfield, forced to travel for all four fixtures this season.

Few starters from Sunday's match seem likely to play with just 48 hours of recovery time. I doubt Dalglish will throw the youth team to the lions, as was threatened when the fixture was announced, but Liverpool will assuredly make multiple changes, and we'll probably see a 'weaker' XI than in previous rounds of the competition. Which Liverpool has taken surprisingly seriously to this point. At least the next match isn't for six days, on Monday at Fulham.

Four players have started all three cup matches to date: Suarez, Maxi, Spearing, and Reina. Of those four, only Suarez seems doubtful, and that's solely down to the amount of games he's played. The only match he hasn't started was the second at Arsenal, way back in August.

Carragher and Coates look likely to renew the pairing which featured in the last two rounds, spelling the outstanding Skrtel and Agger. Either Kelly or Flanagan will replace Johnson on the right, while left-back is harder to forecast – Enrique hasn't played any of the cup games, but Robinson's injured and Aurelio's hasn't yet appeared this season. I doubt we'll see Agger at left back, as against Stoke, which was most likely a one-time occurrence to counter Stoke's height.

Despite his all-action performance on Sunday, Lucas might have to play due to a lack of options in midfield; I'd assume Adam needs the rest more than the Brazilian. Henderson is another possibility, but he also played 90 minutes against City. As said above, Maxi seems certain to take one of the two spots on the wing. Having started the last two league fixtures, Kuyt's unlikely; I expect the right flank to be manned by either Henderson or Downing playing as an inverted winger, as he often did for Villa.

And up top should be Carroll and Bellamy – the former returning to the XI after nearly notching the winner yesterday, the latter back after missing Sunday's match due to compassionate leave. Suarez could take the place of either, but could use the respite given the number of minutes he's played, held in reserve if needed off the bench.

As we'll probably see a weakened lineup from Chelsea as well, I expect Torres to start. Chelsea's other ex-Liverpool man is cup-tied due to his involvement in the win over Exeter, though. Terry got himself suspended with his fifth yellow of the season on Saturday, either to avoid humiliation at Liverpool's hands yet again or because he'd rather miss a Carling Cup match than a league fixture. I'm sure it's one conspiracy or another. The Blues have no injury concerns other than Essien's long-term knee problem.

Like Liverpool, Chelsea's used the cup to give time to their stronger reserves and talented youngsters: Luiz, Alex, Bertrand, Romeu, McEachran, Malouda, Lukaku, and Kalou featured in both fixtures. Both of Chelsea's Carling Cup matches have gone to extra time, winning the first on penalties when Bryan Ruiz missed for Fulham and winning the second when Sturridge scored in the 116th minute.

No matter the restrictions placed by the Football League, hamstrung by the vagaries of scheduling, Dalglish will continue to take this competition as seriously as possible. Only eight teams remain in the competition, and we can be certain that Liverpool will do its utmost to be one of the four left standing after this round.

Liverpool 2-1 Newcastle

Goals:
Skrtel OG 20'
Agger 63'
Sturridge 65'

Well, at least it didn't end how it looked like ending after an hour.

Liverpool won, but so did Manchester City, so Liverpool's win meant little more than confirming second. Liverpool finish second, and the overriding emotion is disappointment. That's still gonna take awhile to sink in.

And Liverpool made hard work of it today. Mediocre but the better side for the first 18 minutes, a bit off-color but unfortunately denied an opening goal when Dowd pulled back Suarez's quick free kick. Because of course, they were subsequently immediately behind thanks to yet another individual error, the sixth own goal of the season, Skrtel's fourth own goal of the season: Newcastle countering down Liverpool's right flank, Gouffran and Haidara combining before the Slovakian haplessly redirected Gouffran's cross into his own net. Sigh.

Which prompted little Liverpool response. Sure, they continued to dominate possession and had a smattering of chances, but not much went right in the final third. Suarez scuffed a shot after a trademark dribble, Sturridge headed wide from close range following Henderson's inch-perfect cross. Newcastle's back five stifled Liverpool's frequent ferocity, no matter their insipid current form, sacrificing possession and territory for solidity and maybe a counter-attack or two. We've seen similar in the last three matches. We're going to see it a lot more next season. And Liverpool were lucky they weren't down by two in the 27th minute: another counter-attack, Gouffran splitting Johnson and Skrtel, but Mignolet making the necessary save.

Rodgers tried to rectify matters with a tactical substitution at halftime, bringing on Cissokho for Flanagan, switching to wing-backs, with first Henderson then Sterling manning the right as Johnson played as a third center-back. Which changed little. Coutinho's entrance for Allen again shifted the side, and was the start of Liverpool's comeback, but once again, it was set plays that saved the side.

Newcastle's lack of discipline has cost them time and time again under Pardew. And as Liverpool racked up free kicks in dangerous positions, Liverpool looked more and more like scoring, with yellow cards for Anita, Tiote, and Gouffran. Then came two goals in quick succession, carbon copies of each other: Gerrard's delivery from the right channel, the goal-scorer at the back post, first Agger, then Sturridge.



And, because Newcastle, conceding two was compounded by a red card for Shola Ameobi, booked and then sent off for dissent in the space of 30 seconds. I've never seen anything like it. It was the fourth consecutive Liverpool/Newcastle match where Newcastle had a player sent off: Coloccini and Debuchy last season, Yanga-Mbiwa and Ameobi this season. That has to be a record. Only Alan Pardew's side would set such a record.

It looked like Liverpool would add to its newfound advantage – Sturridge's on-target shot from the top of the box hitting Coutinho, Agger just missing a third set play goal, among a couple of other chances – but Liverpool were soon content to play out the clock, knowing that City were comfortably ahead in Manchester. Newcastle still found a way to have another player sent off, Dummett for a dangerous tackle (that luckily looked worse than it really was) on Suarez in the 86th minute. So five dismissals in four matches. A team truly in its manager's own image.

And so the contest, and the season, ebbed away, Liverpool stringing harmless passes together while imploring Phil Dowd to blow the whistle early. Here we are, sat in second, devastated and heart-broken.

It's the first time Liverpool have scored more than 100 goals in a Premier League season. The first time Liverpool have won 16 home games since 1985-86. Liverpool have the best away record in the league. Liverpool won 15, drew three, and lost just once in the second half of the season, an average of 2.53 points per game. Suarez matched (but, sadly, didn't surpass) Ronaldo's record for goals in a 38-game Premiership season. Liverpool improved by 23 points on last season's total, the second biggest jump in the Premier League era. From seventh – after finishing 8th, 6th, and 7th in the three preceding seasons – to second, just two points behind the league winners. No team had gone from 7th to 3rd in the Premier League era, let alone 2nd.

All of that is incredible. Don't let the last few weeks blind us to that. Roll on the summer window, with the holes in the squad made sadly obvious during the run-in, and roll on next season.

Now, finally, Liverpool are back. And we go again.

Liverpool v Everton 03.13.12

4pm ET (stupid daylight saving time), live in the US on espn2

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.01.11
2-2 (h) 01.16.11
0-2 Everton (a) 10.17.10
1-0 Liverpool (h) 02.06.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Sunderland (a); 1-2 Arsenal (h); 2-2 Cardiff aet (n) [3-2 on pens]
Everton: 1-0 Spurs (h); 1-1 QPR (a); 2-0 Blackpool (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 6; Carroll 3; Adam, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson, Kuyt 1
Everton: Anichebe, Baines, Drenthe, Osman, Vellios 3; Jagielka, Rodwell 2; Cahill, Fellaini, Gibson, Howard, Jelavic, Pienaar, Stracqualursi 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Skrtel Enrique
Gerrard Spearing Adam
Suarez Carroll Downing

Maybe a knock-down, drag-out, no holds barred Merseyside Derby is exactly what Liverpool need to shake off the current malaise. For once, form's irrelevancy in this fixture might well be a good thing.

Liverpool will assuredly make some changes from Saturday's disappointment. Gerrard should be fit enough to start, Carragher will probably replace Coates (you try keeping him out of a derby). Tomorrow's match probably comes too soon for Johnson, but Dalglish will decide after today's training. Hopefully, Carroll will also come back into the fold after not starting in the last two matches.

Continuing to guess the above 4-3-3ish formation is probably wishing without evidence, but I still firmly believe Liverpool need to change its shape and, more importantly, need to find a way to partner Suarez and Carroll while deploying a three-man midfield to compensate for Adam's flaws and Lucas' absence. The hybrid 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 worked well without results against Arsenal but assuredly didn't work against Sunderland. Admittedly, motivation seemed more at fault than tactics in the latter.

In addition, Suarez has struggled as a out-and-out #9, especially since returning from suspension, with three losses in the last three league matches. It's one thing to play him in that position when he's converting chances, as during last season's run-in. But Suarez has struggled to convert chances all season. At the same time, nine of Suarez's 10 goals this season have come with Carroll on the pitch. Both strikers scored in the reverse fixture, a two-nil win at Goodison.

Liverpool played 4-4-2 in the previous derby, matching Everton's 4-4-1-1, but Rodwell's early sending off admittedly made formation moot. Liverpool pressed, pushed, and attacked for an hour, finally making the break-through against a tiring ten men. Unless Phil Dowd makes a similarly stupid decision, for either side, there's little precedent to be divined. Everton are likely to stick with the same formation, Moyes' clear favorite, with Jelavic as spearhead where Saha was in the last meeting.

In contrast to Liverpool's supremely stuttering form, Everton are unbeaten since January 11, with five wins and four draws since – including victories over City, Chelsea, and Tottenham. But all of those wins came at Goodison, while three of the four draws were away from home, including two against teams currently in the relegation zone. Moyes' sides have rarely travelled well, and he's never beaten Liverpool at Anfield; Everton's last derby away win came in 1999.

Everton's lone injury concern is January signing Darron Gibson, meaning two from Fellaini, Osman, Rodwell, and Neville – most likely the first two – will start in midfield. The back line will probably be Neville, Heitinga, Distin, Baines – unless Jagielka is fit enough to reclaim a place – with Drenthe and Pienaar on the flanks, and Jelavic and Cahill up front. We usually know what to expect from Moyes' side. Everton will be combative in midfield, look to stretch the pitch with width from Baines, Pienaar, and Drenthe, and use Jelavic and Cahill as target-men. Liverpool's central midfielders will have to be smart in possession (attention: Charlie Adam), whoever plays on the right will have to limit Baines and Pienaar's crosses, and Skrtel will have to closely mark Jelavic and/or Cahill.

Despite winning a trophy little more than two weeks ago, Liverpool seem near the precipice. Some are on the edge of revolt, prompted by too little progress and too many unnecessary failings during this transitional campaign. It's one thing when Liverpool lose after a good performance, as against Arsenal, or simply fail to convert multiple chances. It's another entirely when Liverpool lose feebly, hopelessly, and deservedly, as at Sunderland. I still want to preach moderation and patience, but time is running short.

Tomorrow's match will either mute those cries or exponentially increase them. Derbies have a way of heightening any and all emotions. More importantly, if Everton win, they'll leapfrog Liverpool in the table, an unthinkable possibility just a month or two ago. Fair or not, a poor result tomorrow will make the post-Sunderland fervor look warm and fuzzy in comparison.

Liverpool 1-2 Tottenham

Goals:
Lennon 7'
Bale 16'
Bale (OG) 72'

So, what do you want to talk about?

The surprising XI, the exact same personnel and formation who struggled so mightily in the second half against Swansea – which partly led to Liverpool being pushed back for seven minutes until conceding?

Liverpool's continued, unsurprising, utterly abysmal finishing?

Phil Dowd's refereeing? A Spurs free kick for Dempsey's dive leading to the second goal when Bale's vicious free kick took a deflection off the wall. Two blatant penalties, for Suarez in the first half and Suarez in the second half, shockingly not given. 18 Liverpool fouls to just eight from Tottenham.

Let's just bask in the comedy that was Gareth Bale's own goal. It's literally the only positive I'm taking from today.



Three days after Liverpool travelled to Swansea, increasingly terrible as the match went on until a late injury time flurry without reward, Rodgers names the same starting XI. No matter the already fatigued, shallow squad. No matter Downing's complete ineffectiveness at left-back. No matter Bale's pace either exploiting or negating Johnson's strength in bombing forward. No matter Gerrard looking less and less fit as he completes yet another 90 minutes, already surpassing his total Premier League minutes played last season.

It's no surprise that the three above players were involved in conceding Liverpool's first. Bale's pace took him past both Gerrard and Johnson – the former flat-footed, the latter too high up the pitch to properly defend the situation – storming down the left flank before a perfect cross to Lennon at the back post, who had unsurprisingly gotten behind Downing. It was Bale's first assist of the season because of course it was.

But it's also the same problem as when Liverpool last travelled to White Hart Lane. A Tottenham blitzkrieg from the start leading to an early goal that Liverpool have little chance of coming back from. Liverpool actually started in a 4-3-3 formation in last season's match too, one of the rare times it was used last season. And Tottenham similarly exploited Liverpool's vulnerabilities in midfield and on the flanks, requiring them to chase the game from the start. New managers, same match. I'll also churlishly remind that Liverpool still haven't overturned a league deficit in nearly a calendar year, last coming back from behind to win against Newcastle last December.

The goal was the first nail, with the last hammered in less than 10 minutes later. Suarez had a chance on the break in the 9th, set up by Henderson's run at Tottenham's back four, shooting too close to Lloris from 12 yards out, but the game was decided by the two minutes between the 14th and 16th.

Liverpool should have equalized from a Tottenham error – lord knows that the opposition's scored from far too many Liverpool errors; the Reds are due to pay someone back – as Lloris rashly charged from his area to try to intercept Suarez's throughball for Enrique, colliding with Walker, setting up Jordan Henderson with an open goal. Which he shot wide off. 90 seconds later, Spurs were two up; Henderson was called for the "foul" on Dempsey, nowhere near touching him, then Bale's free kick deflected off Henderson in the wall. It was not a good two minutes for Jordan. Two of the three incidents weren't his fault, but Liverpool – again – pay for profligacy. One of these days maybe that lesson will sink in.

Tottenham were no great shakes after those first 20 minutes. They didn't have to be, content to stifle Liverpool, living on the edge, but not really that close to the edge because of Liverpool's impotence. Time and time again, Liverpool chose the wrong option in the penalty box, misplaying the final pass or taking a poor final shot. On the one occasion where the final ball didn't let Liverpool down – neat play from Suarez putting Gerrard through in the 36th – Dowd didn't call a penalty when Walker shoved Gerrard in the back, followed up by Suarez's shot cleared off the line at the last second. Seven minutes later, a Downing cross to no one ricocheted off two defenders, as likely to settle in the back of the net as sail over the bar, with the Tottenham defenders and goalkeeper at sea. It sailed over the bar. Liverpool can't score, can't get a stonewall penalty, and can't get the luck of a bouncing ball. And you expect to win at a ground where Liverpool haven't won since 2008?

It played out similarly in the second half. Aside from a 15-minute spell where Tottenham had possession but little threat, Liverpool were on top but unable to convert passing and possession into goals. Again. Dawson and Gallas did enough, heading multiple crosses and corners behind or out of the danger area, but Liverpool's lack of attacking threat made it too easy for them. It was a fairly open, fairly shambling performance from both sides.

At least, unlike against Swansea, Liverpool's substitutions – well, the first substitution – led to Liverpool improvement. Shelvey possessed far more threat than Henderson, and it was his corner which led to Bale's own goal. Agger won the first header, Gerrard – in the box rather than hitting the first man with his deliveries – won the second, and Lennon's goalmouth clearance blasted off of Bale's ample face. High comedy. Thank heavens for small favors. It was Liverpool's third own goal of the league campaign. No one other than Suarez has more than one.

But despite constant Liverpool pressure in the final 15 minutes, a second goal rarely looked like coming. Which was unsurprising given Liverpool's failure to score after the 75th minute all campaign long. Suarez volleyed over after Agger's brilliant bicycle at the byline in the 80th, Enrique rocketed a 25-yard half volley narrowly wide in the 87th, but more pressure led to the same result. Liverpool are simply not very good in the final third.

The sky isn't falling anymore than it was yesterday. Certain players disappointed, certain personnel decisions confused. The hot stat isn't "unbeaten in eight games"; it's now "one win in six." But Liverpool's major failings in previous matches remained Liverpool's major failings today. They make too many mistakes in defense. They can't capitalize on the opposition's mistakes. They struggle to score for love or money.

This side remains a work in progress, and will remain a work in progress all season. January may improve things. Lucas' return should improve things. But there will be more pain than pleasure for some time. Buckle up for the ride. All we can hope for is that some of these problems are slowly rectified. And that maybe Liverpool might someday win a penalty or two.

Liverpool 0-3 West Brom

Goals:
Gera 43'
Odemwingie 64' (pen)
Lukaku 78'

A little bit of optimism is a dangerous thing. The threatened, bound-to-happen set-back sure happened sooner than expected.

After two frightening minutes where they couldn't get the ball off of West Brom, Liverpool dominated the first half. Suarez is ever dangerous, but fails to convert four chances, while both Johnson and Borini also miss decent opportunities. Then, just before halftime, West Brom open the scoring through Gera, a goal the player couldn't replicate with a gun to his head, with the ball fortunately falling to his feet after Skrtel's clearing header then unerringly, unstoppably volleyed into the roof of the net. New season, meet the old season.

And then came the comedy. Another Suarez missed chance, a free kick curled wide of the post, then two penalties conceded, a red card, and a third goal to rub salt in the wounds.

It all started in the 58th. Gerrard gave the ball away after extended Liverpool possession, trying to find a well-marked Suarez with an unlikely pass, and West Brom stormed down the pitch with Liverpool wholly wide open in the middle as both Lucas and Allen had come forward to join the attack. Morrison found Shane Long with a long through-ball, taking full advantage of Liverpool's high back line, and the striker eluded Skrtel, who over-ran Long trying to mark too closely then comically slipped when Long spun away. Agger retreated, but Long out-paced him, then easily fell over as soon as Agger made contact. A soft penalty, but a penalty nonetheless. You'll hear that expression again soon. With matters compounded by a straight red for Agger, the last man denying a goal-scoring opportunity. Agger should just miss the Manchester City game, a one-match ban rather than three, but he'll be a very big miss in against that class of opposition.

Reina provided a slight ray of hope, saving Long's woeful spot kick, the first he's saved since Rooney's in March 2010. But it didn't last long. Three minutes later, Skrtel again donned the motley and jester's hat, intercepting Ridgewell's cross but failing to control and clear, unforgivably dawdling in his own box then accidentally, softly tripping Long when the striker slipped in to steal the ball. Again, Long went down all too easily, looking for the penalty. Again, Dowd complied. You can criticize Phil Dowd for many things, in today's game and in the past, but the penalties aren't really among them. Both were soft. It's safe to assume neither would be given to Suarez in those situations. But the striker went down when contact was made – even if light contact, even if incidental contact – and the referee blew his whistle. That's what happens. Don't put yourself in those situations. This time, Odemwingie made no mistake from 12 yards out.

Liverpool spent the final 30 minutes just trying to save face. Carragher replaced Downing after the first sending off, Cole replaced Lucas – who had been carded earlier – in the 69th, then Carroll replaced Cole, who seemingly injured his hamstring yet again, in the 79th. Trying to get back in the game, it was a fairly attacking 4-2-3 system, but it was West Brom who attacked. Morrison missed a sitter in the 72nd with Liverpool players caught up the pitch, then Lukaku scored with a point-blank back post header in the 78th after Liverpool once again failed to clear a set play. Suarez nearly notched a consolation in the last ten minutes but unsurprisingly spurned yet another chance, this one even easier than the first five, a free header wide of the far post after Borini's strong run and cross.

It's no surprise after a three-nil loss, but there are few positives to take from that match. Joe Allen played very well, completing 66 of 69 passes (including 24 of 25 in the final third), while Suarez caused West Brom problems with everything but his shooting. Agger and Skrtel were typically solid until the 58th minute, but Skrtel absolutely fell apart after West Brom's first, and it's probably not coincidence that it happened after Agger departed. That's all I got. More importantly, the failings were failings we've seen before: missing chances despite creating chances and controlling possession, resorting to hoofs and crosses when unable to find a way through West Brom's solid back line, far too little contribution from the flanks – especially the frequent scapegoat Downing – and a failure to cope with opposition set plays coupled with mental errors in defense. Still, Rodgers' system worked in the first half outside of Liverpool's tentative start and dreadful finishing; it was the players who let him down with poor shooting then defensive mistakes.

Once again, another ex-Red punishes his former club. Not a manager, not a player this time, but an assistant manager. And Steve Clarke deserves a hell of a lot of credit. As with Liverpool's successes after his appointment in 2010-11, that win was built on defense, keeping Liverpool off the score-sheet when dominant, then having his side ruthlessly punish their mistakes.

Brendan Rodgers now becomes the sixth-straight Liverpool manager to fail to win his first league match, a streak dating back to Graeme Souness in May 1991. Dalglish lost at Blackpool, Hodgson drew against Arsenal, Benitez drew at Tottenham, Houllier lost against Leeds, and Evans drew at Norwich. Of course, that Souness was the one of those seven managers win their first match shows there's little predictive power in the first league result.

It may be the worst possible start, the worst top-flight opening day defeat since losing 1-6 to Chelsea in 1937, but it is still one match. And no matter how much we wished different, it will take time to turn this team around.

Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland

Goals:
Suarez 12'
Larsson 57'

First half: new Liverpool. Second half: old Liverpool. Result: old Liverpool. Sigh.

Rampant – utterly rampant – in the first half, Sunderland were infinitely lucky to only be behind by a goal after 45 minutes. The away side should have been down to 10 men with less than seven off the clock: Suarez blocked Richardson's ill-judged clearance and charged toward goal. The left-back's sole recourse was to pull Suarez down while he was in the process of rounding the keeper. Somehow, Dowd saw it as no more than a yellow – my hypothesis is that he's too much of a coward to send someone off in the opening minutes of the opening game – and to compound matters, the Uruguayan blasted the spot kick over the Anfield Road end.

But five minutes later, Suarez proved you can't keep a good man down, easily beating Richardson to Adam's blistering free kick (which he won), stooping a header in at the near post. For the next half an hour, it looked as if Liverpool could choose its own scoreline. Dowd again demonstrated why he's one of Liverpool fans' favorites, disallowing a perfectly good Carroll goal simply because Wes Brown is too clumsy to stay upright. Adam blasted from distance straight at Mignolet, Downing blasted off the bar after torching three defenders with a jackknife run down the right.

Then came the second half and the inevitable regression toward the mean once unable to turn dominance in play into dominance in the score line. As usual, all it took was one sloppy, schoolboy defensive mistake coupled with some opposition brilliance that the player will never, ever replicate.

Larsson had the beating of Flanagan throughout the second half, and that Dalglish started him instead of Kelly is one of the most-pressing post-match questions. Sunderland's plan was clear – unsettle the youngster and unsettle him quickly. Higher pressure led to the first opportunity: caught in possession and undressed by Larsson, Flanagan could only thank Gyan for directing his header straight at Reina. Three minutes later, Flanagan was caught ball-watching the opposite flank, letting Larsson wander into space at the back post. It still required an audacious acrobatic volley to level arrears. There's just something about Liverpool which encourages wonder goals from the opposition. They should probably figure out how to stop that.

From there, Liverpool were on tilt, completely disjointed by the cruel hand of fate. After stemming the initial tide, featuring Sessegnon's blast over the bar after Carragher backed off, Liverpool turned to its wily, displaced veterans. Kuyt replaced the increasingly ineffective Henderson before Meireles came on for a spent Suarez. Liverpool remained in the 4-2-2-2 with Kuyt initially on the left before moving up top; Downing, who had spent the second half on the right until that point, went left with Meireles filling Henderson's narrow berth. Despite three months to work on Plan Bs, Liverpool's ideas were limited to more and more hoofs in the direction of Carroll regardless of the fact that Sunderland were clearly content to see out the draw. As Georger immediately pointed out on Twitter, Liverpool hoofed pre-Carroll and Liverpool will only be more prone to hoofing with him. It was simply more disconcerting because we saw next to none of the "tactic" in the first half. Sunderland had the lone chance to win in dying seconds, spurned by Cattermole (of all players) on the counter.

So, meet the new season, same as the old season. It's like Liverpool's opener last year – conceding a soft (and very late) equalizer to Arsenal at home – and the Liverpool/Sunderland Anfield match – where Sunderland came back from an early goal to get a barely undeserved draw. Depressingly, both those games came under the previous manager.

With Suarez back in the side, Liverpool reverted to the 4-2-2-2 we saw most often in the run-in. The Uruguayan floated everywhere in the final third, attacking the closest defender in proximity, while Downing stuck wide left and Henderson tucked in on the right. Liverpool moved the ball with pace, ran at the opposition, and never took their eyes off Sunderland's goal. At times, it was more impressive than in the Birmingham and Fulham demolitions.

But Liverpool couldn't seal the deal. Suarez was lightning despite missing his spot kick but faded quickly. Similar goes for Adam: so important in the first half but increasingly marginal and marginalized as the game went on. Somehow, with more hoofs, Carroll became more isolated; he looked the most likely to notch Liverpool's second in that buoyant first half. And most impressively, Enrique fit in immediately despite joining the team yesterday.

But legs tired, ideas narrowed and waned, Lucas – so crucial to Liverpool's rearguard – also bore the scars of a long Copa America, and Flanagan made his first costly mistake (that penalty concession against Tottenham doesn't count because that wasn't a penalty, Howard). That Liverpool would fire into the new campaign so perfectly seems implausible in retrospect, but that first half sent hopes into the stratosphere.

At least the first half shows this side's remarkably high ceiling. You know, if new Liverpool can exorcise the ghosts of old Liverpool sooner rather than later.

Liverpool 4-0 Burnley

Reina
Johnson Carragher Ayala Agger
Gerrard Mascherano
Maxi Aquilani Babel
Kuyt

Goals:
Gerrard 52’ 59’
Maxi 74’
Babel 90+4’

Liverpool made hard work of it for far too long, but it ends 4-0, just like in the reverse fixture. Are we sure there's no way for Burnley to avoid relegation?

So much for needing an early goal before the home side’s confidence burgeoned and they punished a Liverpool team that’s simply awful away from home. Make no mistake, it was a nerve-wracking and massively unimpressive first half, but Gerrard ended the match within 15 minutes of the restart. It’s nice to be a two-man team again, especially since the previous “one man” is injured for the rest of the season.

An opening 10 minutes of Liverpool pressure, including three corners, were devoid of chances and the away side was increasingly bogged down as Burnley grew in confidence. Depressingly, it took 19 minutes for Liverpool to register a shot on goal – a Babel run and blast which failed to hit the target.

Meanwhile, Burnley created opportunities thanks to Liverpool’s tentative defense and a dangerous Martin Paterson. Fletcher headed over from eight yards out in the 27th, Johnson had to divert another brilliant Paterson cross behind in the 35th, and Cork should have scored two minutes from halftime, unmarked on Mears’ cross but heading straight at Reina.

Liverpool had a lone impressive spell around the half-hour mark, with Dowd blocking Gerrard's shot, another Gerrard chance smothered by Jensen after the captain controlled in the box (with a Mears handball shout in the process), and a wonderful flowing move between Gerrard, Maxi, and Aquilani cut out by Cort – but still couldn’t find a goal and didn’t really deserve one. Otherwise, the only other chance of the half was Babel’s tame back-post effort moments before the interval.

Gerrard made sure none of that mattered in the second frame. The half began with another Burnley chance, with Fletcher unable to take advantage of confusion between Agger, Ayala, and Reina, while an injury to Kuyt minutes later (replaced by Benayoun with Babel going up top) increased fears. But the captain soon ended all our worries.

His first may have had a massive slice of luck, deflecting off Cort after he steamed forward from Aquilani’s layoff. But the second was sheer class; a rose by any other name. Maxi’s ball over the top found Aqua, and his slip turned into the perfect set-up for a trademark Gerrard thunderbolt. 2-0, game over, finally.

After that, Liverpool were unsurprisingly content to soak up pressure and counter at pace. Burnley nearly pulled one back, with Dowd ignoring Fletcher’s handball in the build-up and Reina thankfully seeing the striker’s shot cannon off the foot of the far post, before Maxi got the goal he’s waited far too long for. Again, Benayoun to Aquilani set up the goal, with the Italian’s diagonal throughball taken brilliantly first-time by the winger, delightfully curling over a sprawling Jensen.

Liverpool rested Agger and Gerrard in the final 15 minutes, replaced by Lucas and Pacheco (with Johnson moving to left back and Mascherano to right), and it was Lucas who provided the day’s climax, a perfectly-weighted ball over the top to an onside Babel, sliding his shot under the keeper to ensure Burnley were memorably relegated with the last kick of the ball.

To be fair, referring to Liverpool as a one-man team dependent on Gerrard is a bit of poetic hyperbole. As unimpressive as Liverpool were in the first half, they turned it on as a team in the second. Liverpool needed its talisman to break the deadlock – few others looked like scoring – but Benayoun and Aquilani were key in both of his strikes.

The Italian provided three assists today – only the fifth player to accomplish that this season according to OPTA. Yes, he also cheaply gave the ball away too often, and thankfully, Burnley was unable to punish, but he’s trying things few others (only Benayoun, really) in the squad attempt. Yossi’s running from the left opened up more in Burnley’s half, especially with Babel pushing the backline deeper than Kuyt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Babel up top, Benayoun on the left, and Kuyt on the right (if able to play) on Thursday. And once again, Reina was crucial, making saves whenever called upon, while Carragher made some last-ditch blocks. The shakiness in defense partly came from Ayala’s unfamiliar presence, but outside of one or two cheap fouls, the young (and surprisingly enormous) defender did well.

Stunningly, that was Liverpool’s first league away win of 2010, and that tidbit goes a long way in explaining the club’s Premiership standing. But tallying four gives Liverpool a better goal difference than the three clubs ahead of them, increasing the incredibly minuscule possibility of fourth. As often said at this stage of the season, a win is a win is a win. And more importantly, the four goals hopefully boost attacking confidence prior to a match where they'll need to score more than once.

Now do it again on Thursday, only with a bit more impetus in the first half.

Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United

Goals:
Rooney 47' 50'
Suarez 80'

The worst possible result. Not just a loss, a deserved loss – self-inflicted thanks to a feeble 30 minutes after the restart – but continued, probably increased, focus on the Suarez-Evra contretemps thanks to each acting like spoiled children. Fantastic. Just what everyone wants and needs.

Handshakes – irrelevant, archaic, unnecessary damned handshakes – set the tone. As a Liverpool fan, I'm constitutionally obligated to mention that it's slightly (and slightly is all I'll countenance, even when I'm straining this hard to present both sides) understandable that one might not want to shake another's hand when he thinks the latter is a liar who got him unfairly suspended. But Suarez ignoring Evra's hand was childish, Evra then making a scene by grabbing Suarez's arm was childish, and Ferdinand then snubbing Suarez was childish. It both foreshadowed forthcoming scenes and reinvigorated the media's delight in this narrative. Exactly what this match, Liverpool, and football in general didn't need.

As an aside, Phil Dowd did a masterful job today. Only two players saw yellow, Downing and Carrick, both deserved for tackles that halted attacks. At least where it relates to the actual football, the game was fairly tame and fairly played compared to this match's usual fire and brimstone. It's just beyond a pity we can't say the same about non-football idiocy.

Otherwise, there was little to write home about in the first half. Johnson had a couple of early chances, both with his left foot after cutting inside – the first tamely saved, the second pulled narrowly wide of the far post – but United increasingly controlled the game by controlling midfield. With Scholes as the fulcrum, United passed around Spearing, while Valencia was a constant threat down Liverpool's left. Gerrard had to play deeper and deeper to compensate, increasing Liverpool's disconnect in attack. Ferdinand and Evans marshaled Suarez with midfielders adding little to the attack; Kuyt at least did well tracking back, but Downing provided absolutely no benefit, looking less and less confident and more and more depressingly hapless with each step.

Still, United rarely looked like breaching Liverpool's back four. Valencia beat Enrique once, but Rafael's left-footed shot – like Liverpool, from a fullback getting forward –  was too close to Reina. The best chance of the half came when Johnson couldn't close down Giggs' cross as Scholes lost Spearing, but the newly-unretired player headed straight at Reina from six yards. Other, Agger and Skrtel kept the dangerous Rooney and Welback under tight watch while the full-backs stayed solid.

Then came five minutes of madness to start the second half, United two-up before the 50th minute after Liverpool twice shot themselves in the foot. First, when marking a corner, Henderson jumped in front of the better-placed Gerrard, somehow perfectly flicking-on for Rooney to smartly volley from close range. Less than three minutes later, Spearing handed the ball off to Valencia after Enrique had stolen it back, allowing three United players to run at Skrtel. Valencia put Rooney through before Johnson could retreat, slotting past Reina for his brace.

Liverpool didn't look anywhere near scoring until a set play consolation in the 80th, after Dalglish had made all three changes. Confidence clearly circled the toilet, expected but still infuriating, as United olé'd passes around the pitch. The home side seemed far more likely to get the third, as Rooney toe-poked wide after a flowing move, Enrique crucially cut out a Giggs center, and Welbeck's curler from 12 yards out was fortunately deflected to Reina.

Carroll and Bellamy replacing Spearing and Downing, by far Liverpool's two worst performers, added some semblance of coherence, but it wasn't until Adam came on for Kuyt that Liverpool created its first clear-cut chance since Johnson's early efforts. Yes, it was from a set play, won by Suarez, converted by Suarez, and partly due to a Ferdinand error. And had Adam started – today was the first league match he hadn't started – Liverpool might have been even more open in midfield. It's hard to imagine that's possible, but still. Regardless, Charlie Adam creates chances. No matter Liverpool's horrific conversion rate, chances are still somewhat necessary.

Liverpool had a couple of door-slightly-ajar opportunities for an unlikely equalizer, but Suarez's blast from Carroll's knockdown unfortunately deflected off the #9, De Gea tipped Johnson's straight-arrow cannon over the crossbar, and Suarez nearly got on the end of an Adam chip deep in injury time, but could only head over from an offside position. Rendering his earlier goal a consolation and this one of the more depressing losses of the season.

Finally, finishing as we started, Evra's wild, World Cup celebrations after the whistle continued into a dance directly in front of Suarez, which led to yet another half-baked scrum. Again, Dowd attempted to quickly and sensibly pulled the Frenchman away, but damage was done, the narrative further reinforced. This isn't about football anymore, to everyone's detriment.

The feared, unnecessary off-field nonsense will partially obscure Liverpool's poor play, especially those 30-35 minutes after the interval. Henderson replacing Adam seemed a good idea prior to the match, fitter and full of running and better able to counter quickly. Downing instead of Bellamy was more a matter of faith than evidence, but keeping Bellamy's pace in reserve made some sense. Neither gambit worked, nor did the hope that Spearing could hold the middle in place of Lucas. True, this is the first match where he's looked wholly out of depth, but he still looked wholly out of depth. Agger and Skrtel were Agger and Skrtel, Reina could do little about the goals, Johnson and Enrique played well (the latter after a shaky first 10-15 minutes), and Gerrard was restrained having to compensate for his midfield partners. Liverpool did manage something of a fight back, eventually. Those are the on-field positives. All of them.

But, as much as I'd rather not, we have to mention the off-field. For the first time, Suarez's petulant irascibility out-weighted the benefits he brings to the team. And yes, I still say 'for the first time' knowing he just served a ban for what he called Evra in the reserve fixture. And being well aware he scored Liverpool's lone goal. The narrative goes away with a handshake. In theory, the furor dies with a handshake. No handshake sets the tone for Evra's response, Ferdinand's response, a half-time brouhaha, and Evra's taunting, inciting post-match celebrations. All of which will be examined in nanometer detail over the next week. So easily avoided.

Yes, the handshake was incidental to this result, a game Liverpool didn't deserve to win. Which isn't wholly unexpected given previous results on this ground. But now Liverpool as a club will be raked over the coals, drowned in the mud, yet again. And that's unforgivably worse than any loss.

Liverpool at Manchester City 08.23.10

Live in the US on espn2 at 3pm ET.

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (a) 02.21.10
2-2 (h) 11.21.09
1-1 (h) 02.22.09
3-2 Liverpool (a) 10.05.08

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at the line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Kelly
Kuyt Lucas Mascherano Jovanovic
Gerrard
Torres

Obviously, the main question is who plays in the hole with Cole banned for the next three league games, as I don't expect Hodgson to change the 4-4-1-1/4-2-3-1 formation used in every game so far. I would have guessed Aquilani prior to his loan, but now it seems that the options are Gerrard, Maxi, Pacheco, or maybe even Kuyt. After getting used to Gerrard behind the striker for the last two seasons, that's my initial guess, but it's impossible to be certain so soon into Hodgson's tenure. That Torres looked fit in his 45-minute cameo against Trabzonspor can only be a good thing, and without news to the contrary, I'm hoping he finally makes his return to the starting XI.

With Mascherano likely to play despite picking up a minor injury against Arsenal and if Gerrard's likely to play in the hole, the other midfield spot would be filled by either Poulsen or Lucas. I'm naturally inclined to believe the marginally more-creative (and more Liverpool-experienced) Lucas will start, but on the road against tough opposition, Hodgson may want two out-and-out destroyers. However, Poulsen's lack of match fitness after a full game on Thursday makes his participation improbable.

As much as I think Agger's a far stronger option than Aurelio or Kelly at the moment, if he's had a grade two concussion, I don't want him anywhere near the field for his own sake. It may have been a week since the injury, but I doubt it's been a week since his headaches cleared up. I've had concussions (you may be able to tell from my writing style); it is not an injury to be trifled with. That Aurelio, lacking match practice and looking out-of-sorts for long stretches on Thursday, played 90 minutes against Trabzonspor leads me to question his availability tomorrow. Even in the best of circumstances under Benitez a couple of years back, Fabio rarely played two games in four days. Which would leave Kelly as the lone option. It's a big ask for the youngster to start at left back against Manchester City in Manchester, but that's the squad depth at the moment, and, honestly, I'd trust Martin Kelly a lot more than most youngsters based on past performances.

City played 4-3-3 against both Tottenham and Timisoara. Barry, De Jong, and Yaya Toure were the midfield three in both; Tevez, Silva, and Wright-Phillips were up front against Spurs while Tevez, Silva, Adebayor started on Thursday. Balotelli picked up a knock late in the Europa League, after scoring the winner on his debut, which makes him questionable, but likely to play, for Monday. Boateng, Bridge, and Kolarov all are injured, making Zabaleta the likely left-back, although Lescott can do the job there if needed.

City's money, and the players they've purchased, make tomorrow a tough ask, even if they haven't quite gelled and needed some spectacular saves from Joe Hart to come away from Tottenham with a 0-0 draw. This will be their first home match of the season and they'll undoubtedly up for it, no matter which of Mancini's millionaires starts.

Hopefully, they'll continue to need time to settle as a team, and Liverpool can take advantage will a well-drilled defense and quick counter attack. Hodgson's record, despite being with "smaller clubs," shows that he'll first and foremost set up to be tough to beat, which is probably the right way to go about this match. If Torres is fit and if Gerrard is playing further forward, anything can happen on the break. Because no matter how hard of a start to the season Liverpool has or the circus still surrounding the club, a draw and a loss would be no way to start the league season.

Liverpool v Havant and Waterlooville 01.26.08

4th Round. 10am EST, not on in the US. With no televised coverage in the UK either, there probably won’t be any streams either. So much for the magic of the FA Cup.

FA Cup run:
Liverpool: 5-0 Luton (h); 1-1 Luton (a)
Havant: 4-2 Swansea (h); 1-1 Swansea (a); 1-0 Notts County (a); 1-0 York City (a); 3-0 Leighton Town (h); 2-1 Fleet Town (a); 2-1 Bognor Regis Town (a)

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Villa (h); 5-0 Luton (h); 1-1 Boro (a)
Havant: 4-2 Swansea (h); 3-1 St Albans City (h); 1-4 Bishop Stortford (a)

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Itandje
Finnan Skrtel Hyypia Aurelio
Pennant Gerrard Alonso Babel
Crouch Kuyt

A week ago I would have argued that playing Torres or Gerrard would be sheer lunacy. No offense to Havant -- I’m not suggesting Liverpool trot out the under-18s or reserves -- but those two are far too important to Liverpool’s season, and I fear the kicking the players will get.

But after another disappointing draw in the league, and all the continuing off-field "news," I’m not so sure.

At the least, I reckon Gerrard will start. He is the captain, after all, and if Carragher gets the rest he so deserves (with Skrtel hopefully coming in), Gerrard has to be on the field as the team’s leader. As much as I wouldn’t mind seeing Lucas in the center with Alonso, I fear the reaction should Liverpool under-perform without Gerrard or Torres in the team.

And I still think, despite the 17 goals, Torres will start on the bench. He’s someone who would assuredly be in for a kicking, and although he’s been Liverpool main (and at times only) goal threat, Crouch and Kuyt, the first-choice pairing last season, should be strong enough to get goals. Kuyt especially needs to have a good game and hopefully get on the scoresheet to reclaim some of the confidence he’s clearly lost recently.

But then again, Benitez has fielded a stronger team than I’ve expected in pretty much every cup game, both FA and Carling, so far this season.

Arbeloa and Voronin are assuredly out, and in Voronin’s case, that’s not necessarily a bad thing with the form he’s been in. His injury should force Benitez to play Crouch more often, which many have been clamoring for. We may even see Babel play some as a striker (please!) but I imagine he’ll be on the left here, as he was against Luton, because of Liverpool’s limited options on that flank.

The BBC’s piece featuring the Havant team is worth a look to see who’ll be coming up against Liverpool on Saturday.

I’ve said enough, probably more than I wanted, about off-field matters of late, and hopefully they’ll have little impact on the field tomorrow. And it’s not as if Liverpool doesn’t have to focus on the match ahead.

We’ve seen all the talk of the importance of the cups because of disappointing league form; a second FA Cup under Benitez, or at the least a good run, would be small consolation, but consolation nonetheless.

But Liverpool must still get past Havant, and will still have to fight for it every step of the way. This won’t be an easier match because of Havant’s non-league status; if anything, there’s that much more pressure because of the gulf between the sides. Plus, players may not be as focused because of their opponents (see the Luton away leg), and, with no offense meant, this will be the biggest match in many of the opposition players' lives. They will leave everything on the Anfield pitch, and it’s imperative that whoever is in the starting XI for Liverpool do the same.

Premiership Predictions 4/6 - 4/9

Absolutely full slate of games this weekend, thanks to the Good Friday and Easter holidays. For American viewers, there’s upwards of 10 matches televised live, not even considering the games on tape-delay. Thank you, Jesus.

Friday, 06 April 2007
Manchester City v Charlton, 12:15pm, Setanta: This seems like it could be a true test of whether Charlton really has the firepower to escape the bottom three. They’ll be aided by Sheffield’s fall in form, but Charlton holds their own destiny. City are frequently easy targets, but they won without playing well against Newcastle last time out, and have gotten 3 points in each of their last two games, both away from home, where they had struggled. But I still think Alan Pardew’s men will keep on in their fight towards safety. Charlton 1-0
Everton v Fulham, 2:30pm, FSC: Come on, Fulham, continue being the media’s darling draw specialists (3 in their last 3 games). It looks as if the final UEFA Cup spot is going to go to either Tottenham or Everton, so the Blues should have plenty of impetus in this one. But Fulham should be able to keep close and stifle their opponents, as they’ve been prone to do, and hopefully nick one away from home. 1-1

Saturday, 07 April 2007
Chelsea v Tottenham, 7:45am, Setanta: Mourinho won’t be very pleased with Chelsea’s result in Europe (a home 1-1 draw, giving Valencia the advantage for the second leg) or Tottenham’s win at the Bridge earlier in the season. And despite Tottenham’s run of form to get themselves up to 6th, I think we’ll see full evidence of Mourinho’s displeasure. Chelsea 2-0
Arsenal v West Ham, 10:00am, Setanta: Another London derby, another game whether the favored team bears some resentment for a tough loss earlier in the season. Were this match at Upton Park, I could see West Ham nicking one with the tough run and dented morale Arsenal has had, but not at the Emirates. Although I will mention how pleased I am to see Tevez finally finding his feet (and at the same time as Mascherano, fancy that). Arsenal 2-1
Sheffield Utd v Newcastle, 10:00am, Setanta Xtra: I’m never one to rely on Newcastle away from home, but with Sheffield struggling to find goals, the Geordies should at least come away with a draw. Unfortunately, I reckon it’ll be an ugly draw with no goals. 0-0
Blackburn v Aston Villa, 10:00am: There’s a reason Mark Hughes has been publicly linked with both the Chelsea and United jobs recently, despite Blackburn losing their last two matches after taking the lead. They are a resilient, well-managed side and Hughes has done one hell of a job, especially after the sales of Bellamy and Lucas Neill. And they should get back to winning ways against Villa. Blackburn 2-1
Middlesbrough v Watford, 10:00am: Winless for over a month, this should be the game where Boro gets themselves back on track, and demonstrates why Gareth Southgate should be given another season (and I do believe he should). It’s Watford, you know they will battle all the way, but Boro really should have enough to get all 3 points, especially considering their strike partnership (Viduka and Yakubu) cost nearly as much as the entire Watford side. Boro 1-0
Wigan v Bolton, 10:00am: Like Sheffield, Wigan is a team clinging on to a place outside the drop zone by their fingernails. And Bolton finally put together a successful performance last time out, after going winless in their last four. Paul Jewell’s team has had little luck of late (coincidentally, since his tirade against referee Phil Dowd), and that’s going to have to change if they want to get something out of this one. Bolton 2-0
Portsmouth v Manchester Utd, 12:15pm, FSC: Not a bad time to play United in the league, considering their focus will surely be on Wednesday’s Champions League tie against Roma. But I doubt Pompey will be able to take advantage, having won only 2 games since the start of the new year. The key will be seeing how many players United chooses to rest. United 2-1

Monday, 09 April 2007
Watford v Portsmouth, 7:45am, Setanta: Now this should be where Pompey will aim to pick up their first 3 points in the last 5 games. But a lot will rely on Portsmouth’s morale following the United match. If heads go down, we know Watford will be in for the fight. But Harry Redknapp should have his team prepared, even with the quick turnaround between matches. Pompey 1-0
Fulham v Manchester City, 10:00am, FSC: If Fulham can sneak a goal, which isn’t ever assured, they’ll have an excellent chance to win this game. Even considering what I said about City only a few paragraphs up and their record over the past couple of games, I still don’t trust them away from home. Fulham 1-0
Newcastle v Arsenal, 10:00am, Setanta: It would be lovely to see Newcastle able to damage Arsenal’s designs on 3rd place with a win at home, but even given Arsenal’s poor away form and overall questionable confidence level, I can’t see them squandering more than 2 points from this one. Nevertheless, a draw would be an excellent result for Newcastle, as Glenn Roeder has come in for a bit of (warranted) criticism of late. Worth a mention that Newcastle did hold Arsenal at the Emirates earlier this season. 1-1
Bolton v Everton, 10:00am, Setanta Xtra: If results do stay true to how I’ve seen them (the chances of that are very little though, obviously), then we could be in line for another draw here. On paper, these teams seem to cancel each other out; neither are in the best form, but they are two of the better mid-table sides, and both are frequently more than happy to scrape out a result. 1-1
Aston Villa v Wigan, 10:00am: Villa haven’t won since February, and given all the changes Martin O’Neill has made this year, this is a game they really should be winning. I truly do believe O’Neill has made them a better side, both in aesthetics and personnel and they really should be able to show it here, especially in front of a home crowd. Villa 2-1
Charlton v Reading, 3:00pm, FSC: Again, a fair amount in this game will depend on the mindsets of both squads following their games on Saturday, but again, if Charlton want to move out of the drop zone and secure another season in the Prem, this is a game they should at least get a draw from. They’ve secured three wins out of their last three games at home, while Reading has fallen into something of a funk following their egregiously good start to the season. Charlton 1-0

Liverpool at Reading is on FSC at 10am on Saturday.

Prem (and League Cup) Predictions 2/24-2/25

Saturday
Fulham v Manchester United (7:45am, Setanta): As much as it pains me to say, Fulham were utterly dire defensively in their last game. Knowing Chris Coleman as a former defender and as a motivator, I’d hope that wouldn’t be the case here, but more likely it’s a trend for the rest of the season. They should have enough points to escape a relegation battle, however. Not to mention that United have been in fine form, and even when they’re not, they’ve the ability to create a goal out of nothing, as they did against Lille. And sorry, but that was a legal free kick by Giggs, as stupid as the 'wait for the whistle or don't' rule is. United 2-0
Charlton v West Ham (10:00, FSC): There’s a ton of storylines in this one. Alan Pardew used to manage West Ham, Curbishley was at Charlton for ages. Both are in the relegation places and they’re tied on 20 points, with West Ham in 18th on goal difference. With the talent they have and the money spent during the transfer window, West Ham shouldn’t even be in this position, but nothing seems to be able to keep them up. Charlton’s gotten the better results recently, and being at home seals it. Plus I'd love it if Pardew could stick it to Curbs, Magnusson, and West Ham. Charlton 1-0
Middlesbrough v Reading (10:00, Setanta Xtra): Based on the last six games, Reading’s been the best team in the league, and despite Boro being marginally better at the Riverside, the Royals really should take this one. Unfortunately for Reading and the Americans following them, Bobby Convey’s going to be out for the rest of the season, while both teams will also have an eye on FA Cup replays next Tuesday. If Reading do win, they’ll only be one point behind Bolton in 5th. Reading 2-1
Watford v Everton (12:15, FSC):: Loathe as I am to predict a Toffees win, especially away from home, one seems likely here. Aidy Boothroyd’s done an excellent job with the morale of his squad so far this season, but it’ll be tough to keep their heads up after failing to capitalize against ten-man Wigan mid-week. In addition, recent England international keeper Ben Foster will be out for Watford. A loss here would probably seal relegation. Everton 2-1

Sunday
Wigan v Newcastle (8:00am, Setanta Xtra): Despite Newcastle’s fine form, a slow return to fitness, and a big win in Europe mid-week, I still think Wigan will be able to build on their 10-man draw from Wednesday. If, that is, more referring decisions don’t cost Paul Jewell’s team; I firmly believe Styles sent off Fitz Hall mainly because of Jewell’s complaints about Phil Dowd. Which is a hell of an accusation to level, but one I certainly wouldn’t put past Rob Styles. In any event, Alan Wiley’s referring this game, and he is one of the best. Wigan 1-0
Tottenham v Bolton (10:00am, delayed at 11am on FSC): Are we going to get the Tottenham that lost 4-0 at home to United or the one that strolled 4-0 at Fulham in the FA Cup? Bolton’s had the better season, and honestly, is probably a better unit thanks to Sam Allardyce, but Tottenham should be higher than 10th place, and coupled with their play in two good wins the last two times out, I think they’ll move up the table here. Tottenham 2-1
Blackburn v Portsmouth (10:00am delayed at 1pm on FSC): Pompey’s been sliding back down the table, and we’re getting to the point where the table doesn’t lie anymore. Blackburn, on the other hand, have still underachieved in the league, and will also be looking to put the UEFA Cup behind them, going out after a 0-0 draw to Bayer Leverkusen yesterday. This one has draw written all over it. 1-1

Chelsea v Arsenal (9:30am, Setanta): Extra League Cup Final fun. I was wavering over this game until John Terry was ruled out with ankle ligament damage. As you’ve undoubtedly already heard, Chelsea only have one recognized center back, Carvalho, and will probably be forced to drop Essien into defense. Arsenal have had some of the frequent troubles putting the ball in the back of the net recently, most notably against Blackburn, and while the kids will probably continue to play in the Carling Cup, I think the Gunners take it here. Besides, who wants to see Mourinho win another Carling Cup? Arsenal 3-2

Will be done with the Liverpool v Sheffield (10am Saturday, Setanta) shortly.

Liverpool at Tottenham 08.16.09

11am eastern, live in the US on FSC

Last 4 head-to-head:
3-1 Liverpool (h) 05.24.09
2-4 Spurs (a; Carling Cup) 11.12.08
1-2 Spurs (a) 11.01.08
2-0 Liverpool (a) 05.11.08

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Insua
Mascherano Lucas
Kuyt Gerrard Benayoun
Torres

Sweet, the sixth-straight season Liverpool starts with an away game. Can’t wait can’t wait can’t wait.

I would like to reiterate that preseason is rarely a bellwether for the actual season. The team is looking for fitness, looking to avoid injuries, and testing young players. Plus, you have to remember (and this is something I should have pointed out during those preseason match reviews), the team often has a training session prior to the friendly. Preseason results have little bearing on the opening games. Last year, Liverpool hammered Rangers in the final warm-up match and utterly stunk up the joint a week later against Liege.

There are three big questions about the squad going into this match (outside of the biggest one – how well they start the season): who’s fit, who’ll start on the left, and how much will Alonso’s exit impact the formation?

I don’t really believe Gerrard’s groin problem is serious enough to keep him out, but maybe I’m just hopeful he was avoiding a worthless England friendly, like United players always seem to. It looks like it’ll be a last-minute decision at best. If he’s unavailable, I expect Benayoun to take over his role and Riera to be on the left.

As the above article above reminds, Carragher, Agger, and Skrtel have all suffered knocks during preseason. But Benitez seemed fairly certain Carra would be available last week, while Skrtel played an hour for the reserves on Tuesday. Here’s hoping.

That Riera played with Spain (and scored a superb winner, while Torres tallied Spain’s opener) on Wednesday means he’s more in contention than I thought. But given how often we saw Benayoun on the left in preseason, I think he’s more likely. Admittedly, I’d rather Riera.

As I said Wednesday, I’m still not sold on Benayoun on the left, especially if the formation adapts how I think it will adapt, and both Lucas/Aquilani and Gerrard take turns starting the attack from deeper. Liverpool need a player who will hug the touchline and offer space when the center’s congested (which will happen as much as last season, if not more), and I doubt they can be totally reliant on the fullback, whether it’s Insua, Aurelio, or Dossena. I’m less worried about the right, where Kuyt’s often shown the ability to track back, and Johnson’s got sprinter’s speed, but the left’s a concern.

Rafa’s “wingers” often operate more centrally than standard ones. But Benayoun is guiltiest of drifting inside to the detriment of the flank. Both Babel and Riera have their faults as well, but both are seemingly more suited to playing wide on the left, especially the Spaniard.

I’ve harped on the formation enough over the last couple of weeks, but I can’t wait to finally see it in action. It all centers on where Gerrard plays when Lucas (and eventually Aquilani) step in. It’s definitely something I’ll have my eye on all match, but I’ve still drawn up my guess at a squad as a 4-2-3-1.

As usual, expectations are high at White Hart Lane, and they should vastly improve on last year’s start, when the Ramos-led side took two points from the first eight games. Yet another former Liverpool striker has joined the club, and I’m interested to see how Keane links up with Crouch. And if both players even start, as Defoe was in sparkling form for England on Wednesday and has proven to be an able partner for the Gangly Handful (© Ace Cowboy) in the past.

Sebastian Bassong (from Newcastle) and Kyle Naughton (from Sheffield United) will add steel to the backline, but it usually takes defenses time to gel. Liverpool, away from Anfield (where they were arguably better last season), will have to test Redknapp’s defense early and often to put Spurs on the back foot from the off. And putting teams on the back foot is how Liverpool dominated the last 13 games of 2008-09.

Roll on 2009-10.

Liverpool at Arsenal 08.20.11

7:45am ET, live in the US on espn2

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (a) 03.20.11
1-1 (h) 09.25.10
0-1 Arsenal (a) 03.28.10
1-2 Arsenal (h) 10.17.09

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Agger Enrique
Lucas Adam
Kuyt Suarez Downing
Carroll

Two things.

1) Wilshere, Diaby, Gibbs, and Traore out injured; Djourou and Rosicky doubtful; Gervinho and Song suspended; Fabregas and Eboue sold; Nasri and Bendtner's departures seem imminent (although both are in the squad).

2) February 13th, 2000.

I don't care how many players Arsenal are missing – and it's a lot. That second thing? That's the last time Liverpool beat Arsenal away from Anfield in the league. At Highbury. Since then? Five draws, six losses.

More recent history has been repeatedly written from the same script. 1-1. Always 1-1. Even if it takes an out-of-body mistake from Reina or the latest penalty in Premier League history from Kuyt. Well, almost always 1-1. Three meetings in '09-10 – that wonderful campaign – were the exception to this recent rule. Discounting those three Liverpool losses, seven of the other eight matches since '07-08 ended level – six at 1-1.

Liverpool's only changes look likely down the right flank. Johnson probably won't be fit yet, so the right back berth is again down to Kelly or Flanagan. Skrtel's availability means there's cover for Carragher and Agger (a big reason why Kelly was on the bench last week); Dalglish might go with the slightly more experienced Kelly or preserve Flanagan's confidence with another chance – and it's worth noting that Flanagan's second impressive start came at the Emirates last season. I'm honestly not sure which. The right midfield berth seems more certain. It's a big game. It's away from Anfield. It has to be Dirk Kuyt.

Aside from the obvious – the result, the second half in general – there are more positives than negatives from last week. Liverpool were initially and impressively rampant, Downing and Adam bedded in almost immediately, and Suarez looked a star for 60 minutes prior to tiring. Liverpool still would have won despite the second half devolution if not for Larsson's hapax legomenon goal. Or Phil Dowd's questionable (as per usual) first half decisions.

At least we can take comfort from Arsenal's crises galore. Liverpool fans can empathize, having been repeatedly kicked in the crotch by life over the last two seasons, but it's hard to look past the fact it's pretty much Wenger's fault. All of it. And self-inflicted injuries evoke less sympathy, especially when Arsene's involved.

Nonetheless, there's something about a wounded animal being that much more dangerous which I can't get out of my head. Van Persie can still score goals from nothing, Walcott's pace can threaten Liverpool's turtle-like backline (although Enrique, who's now had a week to train, should limit that potential), Arshavin only seems to score against Liverpool, and Arsenal actually have their two best center-backs fit. For once.

Even considering Arsenal's casualties and sales, they've a strong line-up available: Szczesny; Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Jenkinson; Walcott, Frimpong, Ramsey, Arshavin; van Persie, Chamakh. It's not like Liverpool are facing Everton's reserves.

Tomorrow presents the first chance to put last season's away day blues – which had been partly exorcised by Dalglish by May – behind them. As anything can happen in the Premier League (© Sky Sports), the opposition's form is no reason for optimism. Last week's first half against Sunderland is though.