30 August 2010

Is possession still nine-tenths of the law?

The thing that's the hardest for me to wrap my mind around when watching Roy Hodgson's team compared to the side we saw for the last six seasons is how much less possession Liverpool's had so far. Watching a promoted West Brom dictate the play for long stretches at Anfield, with Liverpool only winning the possession battle 51-49% thanks to an improved second half (having less of the ball than Albion in the first), hammered the point home.

Keeping the ball was rarely a problem under Benitez. Even in terrible losses last season, with the team either comprehensively beaten (say, at Fiorentina) or unlucky as sin (at Sunderland), Liverpool almost always had the edge in possession. Going through all of last season's results was painful enough, but if memory serves, we'd probably see similar statistics in the previous five campaigns.

Seven games is an incredibly small sample size (and two of the seven were against what was basically part-time opposition), but through those seven, Liverpool's only had the edge in possession four times: twice against Rabotnicki, at home against Trabzonspor, and yesterday's narrow win. So far, Liverpool's averaged 50.9% of the possession this season. Last season – where we all can agree that Benitez's team was beyond woeful in a more than a few matches – Liverpool averaged 57.3%.

Out of the 56 games in 2009-10, Liverpool had less possession than its opponents ten times: at Chelsea, against United, at Arsenal in the Carling Cup, against Tottenham, against Everton (down to 10 men), at Lille, against Lille, at United, at Benfica (down to 10 men), and at Atletico. Liverpool won four of those matches and lost six. The four wins came at home, the six losses on the road. Surprise, surprise; Liverpool had an absolutely terrible record away from Anfield regardless of who had more of the ball.

I'm certainly not saying possession is the end-all, be-all of football, as demonstrated by last year's win-loss record. Liverpool dropped points in a lot of games where they had more of the ball. Clearly, it's what you do with the ball that counts. But the amount of possession the team's had so far this season is markedly different (and at times, frighteningly low) compared to what we saw under Rafa, and, again, it takes some getting used to.

I'm also not saying it can't work, as Inter proved against Barcelona in the Champions League or Switzerland proved against Spain in the World Cup. Or as Fulham proved in last season's Europa League. But it's a lot harder to score if you don't have the ball, and the Spanish tiki-taka style is the one currently in vogue, both because of its aesthetics and Spain and Barcelona's recent successes. The modern game's seemingly becoming more and more about ball retention, and Liverpool's gone backwards in this regard so far.

If Liverpool continues in this vein, the team would have to be very good on the counter attack and resilient in defense. Again, that sounds an awful lot like Hodgson's Fulham – can't teach an old dog new tricks, a tiger doesn't change its stripes, etc. Managers have their own beliefs and tendencies, and they usually change their teams more than their teams change them.

But Torres, a striker able to conjure something from absolutely nothing, would be indescribably important – even more so than in the past few seasons. It also necessitates utilizing the entire field – especially the flanks, where Liverpool's struggled for years (Hodgson frequently used inverted wingers at Fulham) – and having midfielders who can quickly open up space with movement or long balls. There were a lot of complaints about the Lucas/Poulsen pairing in the last two matches, and on the surface, it appears the pairing will struggle with this style of play.

I'll continue to argue Lucas is underrated (and can play the pass-and-move game when the shackles come off; see his goal against Benfica, for one) and Poulsen needs time to settle, but questions will persist about both. While one "destroyer" will be needed to add steel to the back-line – and either can play that role, although I'd assume Hodgson is more comfortable with Poulsen given his history with the player – I doubt we'll see both on the field much going forward, especially with the addition of Meireles – a midfielder who fits into the dynamic pass-and-move mold. The simple "ticking-over" that Lucas provides, which aligned with Benitez's tactics, seems far less important if Liverpool continues with what we've seen so far this season.

I know we're barely into Hodgson's tenure, and it's hard to draw any conclusions when the manager's still assembling his preferred squad. But it's still incredibly strange to see Liverpool struggle to have and hold the ball. And, like when any new manager comes in, patience is required. It'll take time for the tactics to work, especially when the majority of players are accustomed to the controlling the tempo and steadily building attacks.

29 August 2010

Liverpool 1-0 West Brom

Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Agger
Lucas Poulsen
Kuyt Gerrard Jovanovic
Torres

Goals:
Torres 65'

Unconvincing in the extreme, but once again, we're left thanking Fernando Torres for pulling Liverpool's fat from the fire. Despite a fair bit of dross, it's still three points, Liverpool's first Premiership win under the new manager.

Hodgson reverted to the 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1, a variation of how Liverpool played under Benitez but with the wide players marginally deeper, and West Brom matched Liverpool step for step for long stretches. There was little to choose from between the sides until Torres saved the day. Shock of shocks, the world-class striker was the one who made the difference.

It was Torres who created Liverpool's first chance, in the 3rd minute, attempting to replicate his goal of the season last year only to see the effort easily caught by Carson. It'd take the home side nearly an hour to threaten again, as West Brom broke up any Liverpool foray forward, with yet another team winning the possession battle at Anfield. Albion's holding midfielder Mulumbu and central defender Olsson were fantastic, Lucas and Poulsen were often bypassed (with Poulsen guilty of some shocking giveaways), and there was next to no cohesion in attack. Skrtel was on thin ice throughout the first half, lucky not to concede a penalty for holding on two corners, while Liverpool allowed Morrison and Fortuné a couple of unnecessary opportunities when not closed down.

Liverpool's second-half response was to switch Kuyt and Jovanovic, and the Dutchman did well down the left (while Jovanovic seemed off all game, replaced by Maxi in the 59th minute). Unlike against Arsenal, Rabotnicki, or Trabzonspor, it took time for the team to improve after the interval, but Skrtel nearly scored a wonder goal on the hour mark after Kuyt couldn't scramble in a corner and Poulsen subsequently found the defender at the top of the box, only to see his shot whistle past the top corner.

Five minutes later, hearts were in mouths as West Brom had the best chance of the game so far: Fortuné getting to the byline and centering, with Dorrans unable to connect but the pass reaching Jara. Thankfully, Agger blocked the right-back's first effort and Reina saved the second. But, as we've seen in the past, Reina then started the break that finally saw Liverpool grab the much-needed goal.

A long throw found Kuyt in space, and the Dutchman neatly combined with Torres to create an opening. Checking onto his right foot from the left flank, he delivered an inch-perfect cross for Torres at the top of the box, hitting his volley into the ground but eluding Carson to nestle into net. Torres nearly notched a second minutes later, with Gerrard crossing from the same flank, but Carson stood big to make a point-blank save at the far post.

From there, it was an eventful final ten minutes, with a clear handball blocking Torres' shot ignored by Probert, Albion charging down the field to frighten with yet another effort just wide, and Morrison sent off for a late tackle on Torres in what could only have been a make-up call for denying the spot kick. Despite West Brom down to ten, Liverpool were all hands on deck in the dying seconds, penned back to prevent an equalizer. And, thankfully, they held on for a barely deserved victory.

Three points were crucial, the absolute minimum Liverpool needed to take from this match, and that's what counts. But there are still tons of questions surrounding this side. Once again, the Lucas/Poulsen pairing failed to impress, with Poulsen the far guiltier party. Liverpool struggled to threaten consistently against a promoted side, a team they've scored 16 goals against (compared to West Brom's zero) in the last six meetings, despite being in the comforts of Anfield. Skrtel was shaky and Agger still doesn't look a left back. Konchesky and Meireles both watched from the stands, and the hope is those additions will help Liverpool better reflect Hodgson's plans.

But Reina was Reina, Torres finally got off the mark even though he's still clearly lacking in fitness, and Kuyt was probably man of the match, surprisingly better when moved out left (where he was often deployed in the World Cup). There's clearly room for improvement – and improvement is clearly necessary – but it's a win. A second successive win. We expect, and arguably deserve, better from this group of players, but a new manager has to be given time to implement his ideas.

But instead of increased practice time to implement those ideas, we've another early season international break. Let's hope Liverpool can continue this minuscule momentum when we restart in two weeks' time at Birmingham – a team that was consistently Benitez's bogey side.

28 August 2010

Liverpool v West Brom 08.29.10

10am ET, not on live in the US. Delayed at 7pm on Fox Soccer Plus.

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 05.17.09
3-0 Liverpool (h) 11.08.08
2-0 Liverpool (a) 04.01.06
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.31.05

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Trabzonspor (a); 0-3 City (a); 1-0 Trabzonspor (h)
WBA: 2-0 Leyton Orient (a); 1-0 Sunderland (h); 0-6 Chelsea (a)

Referee: Lee Probert

Pretty sure this is the first time Probert's been in charge of a Liverpool game.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Agger
Lucas Gerrard
Babel Kuyt Jovanovic
Torres

I do wonder whether we'll see 4-4-2 for a second league game with Cole banned for two more matches, and if we do, it should work better against the likes of West Brom at home. But I can't get out of the habit of guessing 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1, even if Cole's suspension and Hodgson's seeming unwillingness to play Gerrard behind the striker makes it a tough line-up to predict.

If Gerrard doesn't play behind the striker – and he might if Meireles signs, but I'm struggling to see it tomorrow – the options are seemingly Kuyt, Maxi, or Pacheco. Kuyt infrequently played in the hole during Rafa's tenure, and is usually the target for Carragher and Reina's punts forward, but he'd have to be a lot better than he was on Thursday. Maxi's participation is doubtful for the same reason he was ruled out against Trabzonspor – gastroenteritis – but it's tempting to hope he's recovered, for the usual "do we really need Kuyt against the bus-parkers?" debate. And Pacheco could have a role to play after his intriguing cameo on Thursday and the news that he's extended his contract for two more years.

Guessing Babel on the right is due to guessing Kuyt in the middle and assuming Maxi's still out, but I certainly wouldn't mind Pacheco starting there. While it seems like Hodgson sees Babel as a striker, I'd like to see him get a chance on the right, where he's not limited to cutting in and blasting shots with his right foot. But if Maxi's healthy, Maxi should start. Torres should also be fit enough for a recall, rested during mid-week and evidently fit enough to make the Spain squad for next week's Euro qualifiers, in place of either Babel or Ngog.

As usual, I question whether Aurelio will be able to play successive games, which is why I'm guessing Agger – who should be over his concussion by now – at left back, although Kelly's obviously a possibility. Similar goes for Poulsen, who's still finding match fitness, which is another reason why I've guessed a Lucas/Gerrard midfield.

While a promoted side Liverpool would expect to beat no matter the circumstances, West Brom under Di Matteo will be a tougher proposition than in past meetings. More compact that Mowbray's team, the Baggies still look to attack, evidenced by how open their first game of the season was – a six-nil hammering at Stamford Bridge. They've somewhat bounced back in subsequent matches, narrowly beating Sunderland with a goal from debutant Peter Odemwingie before a league cup win at Leyton Orient. As well as Odemwingie, James Morrison and Graham Dorrens are both good players, while Chris Brunt can punish any side on set plays. And I'm always worried when Liverpool faces former keepers; Scott Carson had one memorable game, the win over Juventus, and has rarely impressed since, but former Reds (usually James and Friedel) often plays a blinder against Liverpool.

Liverpool certainly can't put the cart before the horse, but three points are an absolute must tomorrow. The first league win of the season is essential against the likes of West Brom; we can respect how they've grown under Di Matteo, and recognize that no game's ever easy, even against promoted sides and with the state Liverpool's in. But Liverpool absolutely have to take maximum points, continuing to build on the morale gained from progression past Trabzonspor.

27 August 2010

Europa League Draw, Mascherano finally sold

It's been an eventful morning.

We'll get the inevitable Mascherano news out of the way first. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool's statement didn't mention the price tag, but the BBC's reporting that Barcelona will pay £17.25m, which is £750,000 less than Liverpool spent to get him from West Ham's reserves. And almost £7m less than City paid to take Yaya Toure from Barca. There might be the usual add-ons that eventually bump the fee up higher, but still. Fantastic. I hope lube was included in the deal or else that raping will be exceptionally uncomfortable.

Unlike I usually do with departing players, there'll be no eulogy for a mercenary who forced his way out of Liverpool at the worst possible time. I loved the player while he was here, but in contrast to the likes of Alonso, Garcia, and Hyypiä, among others, I couldn't care less how he fares in Spain. He was marvelous on the pitch almost every time out, but the fee and the way he left will ruin my memories forever. Hope your wife's happier in Barcelona. But I also hope Busquets keeps you out of the side except for Spanish Cup games, and you rot in the reserves, just like at West Ham.

I'd also hope that Hodgson gets to spend at least half of that £17m or so, but I'm not holding my breath. Adding that £17.25m to my back-of-the-envelope calculations, Liverpool's made around £23m in transfer fees this summer, and that's not including the supposedly imminent Insua sale. The transfer market closes on Tuesday. It's safe to assume it'll pass without Tom Hicks' so-called "big summer" of spending. But with a current midfield of Gerrard, Lucas, and Poulsen (not counting Spearing, sorry), Liverpool simply has to buy someone. And they'll be linked with every available player in the meantime. "We've got the best midfield in the world..."

Now, more important to the immediate future was this morning's Europa League draw, where we learned Liverpool's group stage opponents.

Group K
Liverpool
Steaua Bucharest
Napoli
Utrecht

There's a bit of history and some tasty ties in that group, even if it's not the easiest. Dossena was sold to Napoli in January. Kuyt's first professional club was Utrecht, where he spent five years. Liverpool's been to Bucharest four times, but only faced Steaua once, in the 03-04 UEFA Cup campaign, drawing 1-1 in Romania before a 1-0 win at Anfield. You'll also remember they faced Romanian opposition last year in the form of Unirea Urziceni.

Napoli's clearly the toughest side. There's the aforementioned Dossena, but more importantly, a fair few names you'll remember from the World Cup: Slovakia's Hamsik, Uruguay's Cavani (on loan from Palermo) and Gargano, and Italy's Quagliarella. They also have Argentinean Ezequiel Lavezzi, who was a rumored transfer target in the summer of 2009. Oh, and Cristiano Lucarelli, on loan from Parma, a striker I've always had a soft spot for. Both legs will be challenging, especially the away leg, as Napoli's always been a difficult destination for English teams.

I know a lot less about both Steaua and Utrecht. I'm unfamiliar with almost all the players in the Bucharest team, and highly recommend the Scouting Romania blog for information about Steaua in the run-up to those matches. Utrecht absolutely wiped the floor with Celtic last night to qualify, winning 4-0 at home to cancel out Celtic's 2-0 result in Glasgow. Supposed Liverpool target (if we're believing Goal.com) Ricky van Wolfswinkel scored three of the goals – two from the spot – while Utrecht's keeper, Michel Vorm, was an understudy for Stekelenburg at this summer's World Cup. Otherwise, I'm fairly in the dark on these sides for now.

The match-ups are as follows:

September 16: Steaua (h)
September 30: Utrecht (a)
October 21: Napoli (a)
November 4: Napoli (h)
December 2: Steaua (a)
December 15: Utrecht (h)

Liverpool opens and closes at home, with the crucial ties against Napoli third and fourth. United away will follow Steaua at home, Blackpool at home will follow Utrecht away, Liverpool will play Blackburn at home after Napoli away and Chelsea at Anfield after Napoli at Anfield, while Villa at home comes after Steaua away, and Fulham at home comes after Utrecht at home. That's about as good a draw as Liverpool could get with the subsequent league fixtures. For once, Platini comes through.

26 August 2010

Liverpool 2-1 Trabzonspor

Reina
Johnson Carragher Kyrgiakos Kelly
Kuyt Lucas Poulsen Aurelio
Cole
Ngog

Goals:
Gutierrez 4'
Kacar (og) 83'
Kuyt 88'

Indescribably terrible for 20 minutes, barely mediocre for the rest of the first half, slightly stronger after the interval (improving as the half went on), and then came two goals in the last ten minutes. Phew. I'd forgotten the immense relief that comes with late winners.

It was never going to be easy against tough opposition in a stereotypically raucous Turkish stadium, especially with a weakened side. And it was the worst possible start, giving up a goal before four minutes were off the clock. Kuyt sloppily lost possession in midfield and Colman's throughball-slash-shot found Gutierrez, played onside by Carragher, for a tap-in. It didn't get any easier from there, with Liverpool shell-shocked and Yattara tormenting both Kelly and Aurelio down the left. The away side, as at City, couldn't string passes or get out of their own half, resorting to ill-advised hoofs in the direction of an incredibly isolated Ngog.

It got slightly better after spending those 20 minutes fumbling with all hands on deck, slowly but surely steadying the ship, which was capped by Johnson – Liverpool's best player on the night – with the ball in the net in the 32nd only to be rightfully ruled offside. And, like against Arsenal and Rabotnicki, Liverpool were thankfully much improved after the restart.

Ngog should have leveled the match in the 52nd, set up by Joe Cole's right-sided cross, only to see his six-yard header whistle past the back post. Five minutes later, the young French striker did well to turn his marker and muscle past two defenders but pushed his shot wide from the top of the box. Trabzonspor's response – sending on the more defensive Atas for midfielder Gulselam – blunted Liverpool's "burgeoning" attack, but the entrance of Pacheco in the 77th (how dare Rafa Roy wait so long to make substitutions!) finally marked the true turning point.

Within five minutes, Liverpool equalized, leaving Trabzonspor needing two goals to go through. Once again, it came from a Johnson burst forward – cutting inside past the left back and centering dangerously, with the final touch from center-back Giray Kaçar under pressure from Ngog. Liverpool's second came with the game stretched – Babel in space to run at a defender, cutting back for Pacheco, whose laser blast rebounded fortunately for Kuyt. 1-1 would have been a fair scoreline on the night, 2-1 seems a gift, but either would have seen them through, and I'm certainly not complaining about a hard-won win.

It wasn't pretty, but at least Liverpool consistently improved after the early abomination and once again got the late goals to win matches, a trait they thrived on during the wonderful 2008-09 campaign. As angry as I was during the match – and if you follow me on Twitter, you'll know I was murderously angry – by the end of the night, it's a fantastic result. The first time Liverpool's beaten Turkish opposition in Turkey, a side that's rarely beaten at home, with an under-strength squad. That would have been a tough tie with everyone available and fully fit.

After early threats, Johnson was rarely tested in defense, and was Liverpool's only consistent option going forward in the first half. Lucas was typically steady, but Liverpool needed more than steady from central midfield today to make this system work, and his pairing with Poulsen isn't often easy on the eyes. Kyrgiakos was once again dominant aerially. And Pacheco and Babel both had excellent cameos; I hope both have a role to play on Sunday against West Brom. I single out Pacheco for turning the game because his singular ambition to drive forward seemed to perk up the entire side and peg back Trabzonspor, even if he wasn't involved in the crucial equalizer.

But the "fantastic result" can't mute some obvious problems. The team was constantly bereft of ideas for long stretches, bypassing midfield with punts forward despite Ngog unable to hold up play until runners could join in the "attack," which rendered Cole invisible for long stretches. Aurelio's nowhere near fitness and Kuyt looked every bit the scapegoat people make him out to be in the first half, taking both flanks out of the attack. But Fabio, despite his versatility (having played left-back, wing-back, left midfield and central midfield), isn't a left-winger in a four-man midfield, while Kuyt ended up with the final goal thanks to his often-displayed nose for the rebound.

There's still a long season ahead, but Liverpool's over this high hurdle, which will make Anfield a far happier place to be. Confidence matters, and despite the poor performance for long stretches, this result will raise the side's confidence.

25 August 2010

Liverpool at Trabzonspor 08.26.10

Liverpool lead 1-0 on aggregate.

1:30pm ET; not on TV in the US. Again. And so far, my DirecTV guide only has Sunday's West Brom game on delay: FS+ at 7pm. Not good. I'm blaming Purslow for this, too.

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-3 City (a); 1-0 Trabzonspor (h); 1-1 Arsenal (h)
Trabzonspor: 3-2 Fenerbahce (h); 0-1 Liverpool (a); 2-0 Ankaragucu (a)

Referee: Ivan Bebek (CRO)

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Aurelio
Lucas Poulsen
Kuyt Cole Pacheco
Ngog

The traveling party, announced this morning, seemingly tells the world where Liverpool's priorities lie. Torres, Gerrard, Maxi, Agger and Jovanovic all stayed on Merseyside after four of those five started at City on Monday.

It comes down to cold, cruel calculations. As so often noted, Liverpool have a small squad and this competition isn't anywhere near the list of priorities. We were always going to see some rotation. But resting key players will not guarantee a better league performance, as Aston Villa proved in a similar situation last year. I cannot imagine the torrent of criticism that would follow going out of the Europa League at this stage, and – I hate to admit – this squad makes that look a bit more likely. I was already worried with such a slight advantage in a daunting venue after Monday's abortion of a match.

The full squad of 19:
Reina, Gulacsi, Hansen, Johnson, Kelly, Skrtel, Carragher, Krygiakos, Aurelio, Cole, Spearing, Poulsen, Lucas, Pacheco, Shelvey, Babel, Kuyt, Ngog, Eccleston.

From that, looks like it'll be Lucas and Poulsen clogging the midfield, Ngog or Babel up top, two of Kuyt, Pacheco, and Babel on the flanks, and Cole definitely in the hole (yes, I thoroughly enjoy writing "Cole in the hole"). Johnson and Aurelio will probably start at fullback – although I'm still tempted to suggest Kelly take one of those spots – while Carragher will captain the side and partner either Skrtel or Kyrgiakos. Eking a narrow win or draw isn't outside the realm of possibility with that XI, but the job's a lot harder with five important players missing.

It's no surprise to see Torres and Agger out because of each's respective fitness. Maxi's illness forced his exclusion. But the omission of both Gerrard and Jovanovic is surprising; make no mistake, they're both being rested. Jovanovic's played every competitive match to date this season, while if Gerrard needed or wanted to play tomorrow, he could, minor back injury or not. I'd have guessed both to start before seeing this morning's squad.

The Europa League's no cash-spinner, and it'd be nice to have Saturday league games again, which isn't going to happen as long as there are Thursday night cup matches. But winning breeds confidence. And Liverpool desperately need confidence at the moment. I wouldn't mind the above squad so much if Liverpool had put more past Trabzonspor at home or weren't so dire on Monday, but circumstances are what they are. And these circumstances feel like more shit piled upon the growing mountain. Even if it's not the case, the implication is now that Hodgson doesn't care about the Europa League, and the media will assuredly respond accordingly. I can hear the knifes being sharpened already. The honeymoon was fun while it lasted.

Trabzonspor beat one of the big Istanbul three at home last Sunday: scoring three against Fenerbahce, with strikes from Yattara and Glowacki as well as an own goal. The Huseyin Avni Aker Stadium will be an absolute cauldron, and any win would be an excellent win, no matter the XI. By all accounts, their match on Sunday was open in the extreme, with five goals in the first half (and, as football goes, none in the second), which is the antithesis of this year's Liverpool team to date. This year's model has all of last season's attacking ineptitude combined with Gerrard in midfield and a defense that sits 10 yards deeper. Yes, there have only been five games so far, but still, fun times.

Right now, Liverpool seem there for the taking with a narrow lead going into a tough away venue. In the Europa League qualifiers, of all competitions. But this is Anfield these days.

You're doing a heck of a job, George and Tommy. You too, Cecil and Martin.

23 August 2010

Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City

Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Agger
Kuyt Gerrard Lucas Jovanovic
Ngog Torres

Goals:
Barry 13'
Richards 53'
Tevez 68' (pen)

Dominated, embarrassed, humiliated. Tactically out-classed, overrun in midfield, passed to death, and toothless in attack. City's going to win a lot more home games this season than last, but that doesn't make this any easier to swallow.

Liverpool ostensibly set out to attack in starting both Torres and Ngog, and Torres had a couple of nanosecond openings in the first few minutes, only to be closed down at the last opportunity, but it was a matter of time before City opened the scoring. Manchester City had possession for more than a minute before scoring the first, patiently passing, poking, and prodding their way up the field until Johnson's through-ball split Jovanovic and Agger, Gerrard failed to track Milner's run to the byline, and the cutback found a wide-open Barry lurking at the spot, with Carragher unable to close down before Benitez's former target passed it into the net.

Liverpool struggled to get the ball off City, hindered by the tactics with de Jong, Barry, and Yaya outnumbering Lucas and Gerrard, and did little with it when able to maintain possession. Adam Johnson was a perpetual threat running at Agger and Jovanovic. Crosses only found City heads. Liverpool's best chance was a wild Gerrard shot after the away side actually strung some passes in attack.

But unlike against Arsenal, Trabzonspor, or Rabotnicki, Liverpool failed to improve after the restart, and Richards doubled the lead when out-jumping Agger to head in a corner; Tevez, directly in front of Reina, was credited with the goal, but didn't appear to get a touch on replay. I eagerly await the imminent condemnation of man-to-man marking, especially when it's a recent concussion victim against the opposition's best leaper. It's also another one that won't make Reina's highlight reel.

Liverpool finally showed some fight after the second goal, with multiple Gerrard shots blocked by diving defenders before the captain hit the post and both Torres and Ngog's rebounds were saved by a flailing Hart. 2-1 could have seesawed the match, but I can't say I'm surprised or that today wasn't deserved. Tevez put the requisite gloss on the scoreline after Skrtel hastily chopped down a stumbling Johnson (and was lucky not to see a second yellow). Babel and Pacheco made somewhat promising cameo appearances, for Torres and Jovanovic; Babel nearly grabbed a consolation minutes after entering, from Gerrard's through with his deflected shot saved by Hart, while Pacheco showed the tantalizing vision and passing in his five or so minutes despite the game being long gone.

We come here today to bury, not praise, the 4-4-2. Almost everything you've read from those who analyze tactics is right – it is an outdated formation that works against few others. It may triumph against the typically English cloggers like Wolves and Stoke, but it will not against the big sides, and like it or not, City's now amongst the United, Chelsea, and Arsenals of the world. Mancini, a continental manager forged in Milan, knows what's he's doing.

We'll be longing for the days where Liverpool bossed possession, even if they did nothing with it, soon enough. Because it is very strange seeing the side not winning that battle; they've only done so against Rabotnicki at home so far this season. Saying that Lucas and Gerrard were outnumbered and overrun barely suffices. Barry, De Jong, and Yaya basically played keep-away while the ever-threatening Johnson sparked an attack once the patient prodding found a hole. Gerrard worked hard, and was probably Liverpool's best player (admittedly, there wasn't much competition for the accolade), but couldn't "grab the game by the scruff of the neck" because of his necessary defensive duties. Kuyt and Jovanovic, both ostensibly strikers before coming to Liverpool, may work out wide in a 4-2-3-1/flexible 4-4-1-1, but not with two flat lines of four mainly behind the ball. And, then there's Torres: clearly still finding his form (to put it nicely) and always thought to be at his best when plowing a lone furrow.

But we also come here to neither bury nor praise Roy Hodgson. I think he got the formation and tactics wrong today, but it is still incredibly early and Liverpool's problems run miles deeper than the manager. The sky is still falling; Huang leaving Liverpool hung out to dry (yes, I went there) shines even more light on the off-field problems, let alone taking a glimpse at this summer's transfer spending or the on-going Mascherano fiasco (I'll assume you've all read the rumors about him refusing to play today).

This is Liverpool's worst defeat for more than two years, since losing to United by the same scoreline in March 2008. But there are built-in excuses for that result: that was the "Steve Bennett game."

There are no excuses today. Only questions, fears, and anger.

22 August 2010

Liverpool at Manchester City 08.23.10

Live in the US on espn2 at 3pm ET.

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (a) 02.21.10
2-2 (h) 11.21.09
1-1 (h) 02.22.09
3-2 Liverpool (a) 10.05.08

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at the line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Kelly
Kuyt Lucas Mascherano Jovanovic
Gerrard
Torres

Obviously, the main question is who plays in the hole with Cole banned for the next three league games, as I don't expect Hodgson to change the 4-4-1-1/4-2-3-1 formation used in every game so far. I would have guessed Aquilani prior to his loan, but now it seems that the options are Gerrard, Maxi, Pacheco, or maybe even Kuyt. After getting used to Gerrard behind the striker for the last two seasons, that's my initial guess, but it's impossible to be certain so soon into Hodgson's tenure. That Torres looked fit in his 45-minute cameo against Trabzonspor can only be a good thing, and without news to the contrary, I'm hoping he finally makes his return to the starting XI.

With Mascherano likely to play despite picking up a minor injury against Arsenal and if Gerrard's likely to play in the hole, the other midfield spot would be filled by either Poulsen or Lucas. I'm naturally inclined to believe the marginally more-creative (and more Liverpool-experienced) Lucas will start, but on the road against tough opposition, Hodgson may want two out-and-out destroyers. However, Poulsen's lack of match fitness after a full game on Thursday makes his participation improbable.

As much as I think Agger's a far stronger option than Aurelio or Kelly at the moment, if he's had a grade two concussion, I don't want him anywhere near the field for his own sake. It may have been a week since the injury, but I doubt it's been a week since his headaches cleared up. I've had concussions (you may be able to tell from my writing style); it is not an injury to be trifled with. That Aurelio, lacking match practice and looking out-of-sorts for long stretches on Thursday, played 90 minutes against Trabzonspor leads me to question his availability tomorrow. Even in the best of circumstances under Benitez a couple of years back, Fabio rarely played two games in four days. Which would leave Kelly as the lone option. It's a big ask for the youngster to start at left back against Manchester City in Manchester, but that's the squad depth at the moment, and, honestly, I'd trust Martin Kelly a lot more than most youngsters based on past performances.

City played 4-3-3 against both Tottenham and Timisoara. Barry, De Jong, and Yaya Toure were the midfield three in both; Tevez, Silva, and Wright-Phillips were up front against Spurs while Tevez, Silva, Adebayor started on Thursday. Balotelli picked up a knock late in the Europa League, after scoring the winner on his debut, which makes him questionable, but likely to play, for Monday. Boateng, Bridge, and Kolarov all are injured, making Zabaleta the likely left-back, although Lescott can do the job there if needed.

City's money, and the players they've purchased, make tomorrow a tough ask, even if they haven't quite gelled and needed some spectacular saves from Joe Hart to come away from Tottenham with a 0-0 draw. This will be their first home match of the season and they'll undoubtedly up for it, no matter which of Mancini's millionaires starts.

Hopefully, they'll continue to need time to settle as a team, and Liverpool can take advantage will a well-drilled defense and quick counter attack. Hodgson's record, despite being with "smaller clubs," shows that he'll first and foremost set up to be tough to beat, which is probably the right way to go about this match. If Torres is fit and if Gerrard is playing further forward, anything can happen on the break. Because no matter how hard of a start to the season Liverpool has or the circus still surrounding the club, a draw and a loss would be no way to start the league season.