Liverpool at Benfica 04.01.10

3:05pm ET, live in the US on DirecTV channel 462 (or in HD on 462-1). Delayed on GolTV at 8pm.

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Sunderland (h); 1-2 United (a); 3-0 Lille (h)
Benfica: 1-0 Braga (h); 3-0 Porto (n); 2-1 Marseille (a)

Round of 16:
Liverpool: 3-0 Lille (h); 0-1 Lille (a)
Benfica: 2-1 Marseille (a); 1-1 Marseille (h)

Round of 32:
Liverpool: 3-1 Unirea (a); 1-0 Unirea (h)
Benfica: 4-0 Hertha (h); 1-1 Hertha (a)

Group Stage Results:
Liverpool: 1-2 Fiorentina (h); 1-0 Debrecen (a); 1-1 Lyon (a); 1-2 Lyon (h); 0-2 Fiorentina (a); 1-0 Debrecen (h)
Benfica: 2-1 AEK (h); 2-1 BATE (a); 2-0 Everton (a); 5-0 Everton (h); 0-1 AEK (a); 2-0 BATE (h) [Europa League]

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Benayoun, Babel, Gerrard, Ngog, Torres 2; Kuyt, Mascherano 1
Benfica: Cardozo 7; Saviola 5; Di Maria 4; Maxi Pereira 2; Aimar, Coentrão, Javi García, Kardec, Luisão, Weldon 1

Referee: Jones Eriksson (SWE)

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Insua
Lucas Mascherano
Kuyt Gerrard Babel
Torres

This will assuredly be a typical European encounter. Away from home, Liverpool will try to control the tempo and contain Benfica, and hopefully make a break-through on the counter, spearheaded by the sparkling Torres.

For all those who want to see Liverpool as expansive and attack-minded as against Sunderland or Pompey, my reply is simple. Are you insane? If Benitez has earned any amount of trust, it’s in European competition, and memorable nights in Turin, London, Milan, and Madrid happened because of Rafa’s ‘conservatism.’ It’s even more crucial that Liverpool keep it tight with the first leg in Portugal.

It’s risk versus reward. And Benfica, who’ve scored more than 100 goals so far this season while conceding less than 10 at home in all competitions, pose more risk than any side Liverpool’s faced in either the CL or Europa League this season. Benitez will set up shop exactly as he did four years ago, when Benfica knocked Liverpool out of the Champions League in the round of 16, when Liverpool were defending champions. Let’s hope it turns out differently this time.

The only spot that seems up for grabs is left midfield – Babel or Benayoun. Yossi was seemingly rested on Sunday with an eye on tomorrow, but I’ve written more than enough words on why I’d like to see Babel continue to get chances.

The Aquilani brigade are set for another disappointment, with the Italian midfielder again ruled out, this time with an ankle injury (the same ankle that kept him out all autumn). Niggling injuries like these are exactly why he hasn’t featured as much as we’d all like – he’s just not fit yet, even after all this time.

The official site also has an instructive interview with Portuguese journalist Luis Pedro Ferreira:

“Benfica are having their best season in 16 years and it's no coincidence they have scored 104 goals in official matches in 2009-10.”

Well then. Di Maria, Saviola, Cardozo, Aimar, Ramires, just to name a few. I again refer you to Zonal Marking’s article titled “Benfica – the most attractive side in Europe?” Simply put, Benfica are a team that can and will punish you. They lead their league by six points, with 20 more goals than their closest competitor. They haven’t lost in 2010. And they have a full squad available, with no injuries to speak of. At the least, Rafa’s familiar with a number of their players, so Liverpool should be well aware of the dangers posed.

I really do think the key is to keep it tight. I’d be surprised if there are more than two goals combined in this game, despite the firepower. Liverpool will play for 1-0 or 0-0, and hope not to have more than a goal deficit to overturn at Anfield.

It’s worked before, against tougher opposition, and with Liverpool in worse form.

The Metamorphosis of Ryan Babel

I’m sorry, Ryan Babel.

I took a bit of steam out of this post in the comments of yesterday’s match review, but it’s a point worth reiterating. Not because it’s yet another example of how wrong I can be, but because the difference Babel’s made of late has been a near revelation. At the very least, he’s shedding the ‘do not open until the 70th minute’ label and impressing in starts.

I’ll begin by quoting what I wrote yesterday, a succinct summation of the subsequent 1000 words:

I need to apologize to Ryan Babel, who deserves a lot of credit for recent games. But I don't take back what I wrote pre-January.

The difference is in Babel's game, and I'm hopeful (and believe) that it's down to his discussions with Benitez during the transfer window.

Babel's been Babel in attack, if more consistent when starting. But the key - the reason he's been playing games - is that he's learned how to track back. It was even evident today. Sunderland offered next to nothing, but Babel always got back to defend, even taking up positions behind Insua when Sunderland's fullbacks rarely overlapped.

I cannot overemphasize how important that is. Important to Liverpool, and important to Babel's career.

I'm not much for turning points, especially this season, but this seemingly has been one. And maybe it'll help dispel the illusion of Rafa's poor man-management.

Babel’s started in six of the last nine games: 3-0 Sunderland, 3-0 Lille, 4-1 Pompey, 0-1 Lille, 3-1 Unirea, and 0-0 City, with City on 2/21 his first start since facing (and being injured against) the same side in November. A result is rarely down to one player, but four wins, a draw, and a loss certainly isn’t a bad record, with goals against Pompey and Unirea and an assist against Lille.

But as said above, more impressive has been the overall performance put in. Thanks to the wonders of technology, I’ve a couple of graphics that illustrate this point. Both compare yesterday’s match to the first of the season, a 1-2 loss at Spurs, where Babel surprisingly started (one of his three league starts prior to this recent run).




First, the Guardian’s Chalkboard, which show the passes Babel attempted in each game, demonstrating the positions he took up, what he looked to accomplish, and how successful he was.

The second is his Soccernet “heat map” for each match – Sunderland on the top and Spurs below. Yes, Babel had 25 more minutes in yesterday’s match, substituted in the 68th against Spurs, but look at how he utilizes more of the flank against Sunderland, including in his own half, despite Liverpool’s relative comfort.

For all the praise, Babel wasn’t the ne plus ultra yesterday, and probably was the third or fourth best player in the team at most. For all his good work, the final ball – whether it was a shot or cross – was often lacking, partly evidenced in the above Chalkboard. It’s a complaint that’s cropped up before. But it should be easier to add to his game than defense awareness; it's something that will come with playing time. And with Liverpool likely to keep it tight in Portugal this Thursday, I’m interested to see if Babel retains his place. It’ll help demonstrate if he’s truly back in plans or if I’m imagining things.

It’s a small sample size, but Insua’s also been better with Babel in front of him than Benayoun or Maxi this season (he and Riera linked up well early on, but we all know what happened to Albert). In the same vein as this post last year, Liverpool’s record is 3W-1D-6L with Benayoun/Insua, 1-1-2 with Maxi/Insua, 6-3-1 with Riera/Insua, and 4-1-3 with Babel/Insua. And two of those Babel/Insua losses came back in the fall, the aforementioned Spurs match and Arsenal in the Carling Cup. As of late, Babel’s “protected” Insua far, far better than Benayoun or Maxi.

Since Babel’s “reclaimed” a starting spot on the left, none of the goals conceded have started down that flank. Hazard scored a tremendous free kick from Liverpool’s right. Belhadj’s cross for Pompey’s consolation came from that side as well. Unirea’s lone goal was from a corner, and while it was a header over a static Insua, the move didn’t come down that wing.

Another boon has been how well Torres and Babel have linked up, although Torres can make anyone look good with the form he’s in. Both players like to cut in from the left onto their right (evidenced by Torres’ superlative first goal on Sunday, and watch Babel’s run on the replay), making it dangerous when the two play together, dragging defenders into uncomfortable positions and generally creating confusion. That’s a big weapon to have in the armory, and it’s one that wouldn’t work to the same effect if Babel played in his “preferred position” paired with Torres up top. Which necessitated him showing enough defensive aptitude and work ethic for Benitez to trust him with a midfield berth.

Yes, Babel’s chances were few and far between over the past year or so; inadvisable quotes in the media, a month-long injury, and a few frustrating and anonymous appearances somewhat led to that, which led me to believe the player was on his way out. There had to be a reason Benitez wasn’t using him – and it’s not a personal grudge – which is why I’ve focused on what he’s apparently added to his game.

I still think that Liverpool could do with improvement on the flanks. I’ve been beating that drum for well over a year now and a few good matches from Babel aren’t going to completely change that. But I’ve become far more convinced that he has a future at the club, through his own hard work once given the chance.

Well done. Keep it up.

Liverpool 3-0 Sunderland

Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Insua
Maxi Mascherano Gerrard Babel
Kuyt Torres

Goals:
Torres 3’ 60’
Johnson 32’

Well, that was a game for less than 180 seconds thanks to the irrepressible genius of Fernando Torres with what will surely be goal of the season and the team’s best half of football in months. So much for Steve Bruce’s league voodoo over Benitez. It’s no exaggeration to suggest Liverpool could have had five by the 20th minute, and had Sunderland been able to find the ball, the profligacy and Gordon’s saves might have worried.

But with Liverpool maintaining something along the lines of 75% possession in the first half, the away side never had a chance to equalize, and couldn’t even fashion a shot on goal until the 55th. Soon after the half-hour mark, Johnson provided the second, his third for the club and first since September, with his second lefty goal from outside the box. Torres’ first strike, however, will take some beating: cutting in from the left between Turner and Cana and curling into the far corner from the edge of the box. Just jaw-dropping.

Outside of the goals, all supremely taken, this entire review could be a list of chances spurned. That Agger, a defender, had three in the first half – a volley saved in the first minute and a header and shot narrowly wide – demonstrates how many in red pushed up. The interplay between Kuyt, Maxi, Torres, Babel, and Gerrard was picturesque, pouring forward in tandem and switching positions as we haven’t seen in nearly a year.

Torres should have added at least one more five minutes before halftime. Yet again camped in Sunderland’s half, Insua’s cross found Kuyt at the back post, and while Babel missed contact with the knock-back, Torres didn’t. But, evidently, he actually is human. His first effort cannoned off the post and he scuffed the rebound wide. But with Liverpool two to the good, legends like Rush, Kenny, and Thommo could only laugh in the director’s box.

After scoring the second, Liverpool were far more content to repress Sunderland and try to tear them apart on the counter. Bruce actually took off his favorite midfielder, the water-carrier (and invisible) Cattermole, at halftime, and for 15 minutes, Sunderland actually tried to get into Liverpool’s half, helped by bringing on Jones and shifting to 4-3-3. But then Torres struck again, provided by the other goal-scorer, and that truly was game over.

Once again, it was a team goal created by getting men forward. Insua to Rodriguez to Johnson to Torres, with the striker turning it in with defenders on the ground after Johnson’s clever disguised pass.

And a 30-minute light training session followed the hour-long match, with Liverpool playing keep ball and Sunderland unable to find a consolation. In fact, Sunderland’s only other shot on target came with less than 90 seconds left, the substitute Zenden’s long-range effort pushed around the post. But Liverpool rarely looked for a fourth, with Aquilani, Ngog, and El Zhar replacing Kuyt, Torres, and Gerrard.

The opposition’s lack of, well, much of anything makes it hard to draw firm conclusions. But this is exactly what we’d hoped for: a 3-0 hammering that could have been far wider. The attack worked a treat, with Torres having much more support in this formation, able to drag defenders wide by taking up space in the left channel in the knowledge that others would soon arrive. Kuyt was an out-and-out, if deep-lying, striker, while Babel and Maxi spent so much time in the final third I could have drawn it up as 4-2-4. And at the same time, we finally saw an interested and rampaging Gerrard.

Special mention also goes out to Johnson and Agger, whose attacking prowess was evident today. Johnson scored one and set up another, while Agger could have had a hat trick. They – along with Insua – spent as much time in Sunderland’s half as their own, to excellent effect. It won’t work in every match – this was lower-tier opposition at Anfield and for all the other failings this season, Liverpool’s often done well in these games, in contrast to the debilitating home draws last season. But it sure was nice to see today. And while Sunderland had next to nothing in attack, it was nice to see Insua stand out. Sunderland played both Bent and Campbell out wide at times, trying to test the struggling youngster with pace. It didn’t work once.

All week long we’ve been talking about how Liverpool just needs to win their games. There’s nothing the team can do about Spurs, City, and Villa other than hope they keep dropping points. And a trip to Birmingham, another bogey side, comes in a week, after a difficult European away against Benfica. The woods are still deep, dark, and foreboding, and Liverpool’s nowhere near out of them.

But keep doing this and I absolutely believe fourth place will go down to the last day.

Liverpool v Sunderland 03.28.10

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last 4 head-to-head:
0-1 Sunderland (a) 10.17.09
2-0 Liverpool (h) 03.03.09
1-0 Liverpool (a) 08.16.08
3-0 Liverpool (h) 02.02.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 United (a); 3-0 Lille (h); 4-1 Pompey (h)
United: 1-1 Villa (a); 3-1 Brum (h); 1-1 City (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 16; Kuyt 9; Gerrard 6; Benayoun 5; Ngog 4; Babel 3; Johnson 2; Aquilani, Kyrgiakos, Skrtel 1
Sunderland: Bent 20; Jones 8; Campbell 3; Reid, Turner 2; Henderson, Mensah, Richardson, Zenden 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Well, at least it’s not Mike “Hey, that’s a beach ball!” Jones.

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Insua
Mascherano
Maxi Aquilani Gerrard Babel
Torres

I’m tempted to maliciously suggest that Gerrard start on the left. If he’s truly packing it in for the World Cup, Liverpool may as well try to kill two birds with one stone: see if Stevie can help ease the left flank troubles and potentially cure his World Cup-itis by deploying him where Don Fabio will.

But what seems more likely, and would probably lead to a bit more cohesion in familiar positions, is a line-up similar (or exactly the same, as I've guessed) to that against Pompey two weeks ago. Aquilani and Babel back in (yes, yes, for Kuyt and Lucas), with Maxi shifting back to his preferred right flank. Aquilani seems much more likely to play these next seven league games, finally looking fitter and adapting to his surroundings. How he fares over the next two months will be crucial.

Otherwise, as usual, the line-up questions pertain most to the flanks. The above is what I want to see as well as what I think we’ll see, but as I wrote earlier in the week, at the least, pick from Kuyt/Maxi on one side and Babel/Benayoun on the other. And as usual, the defense and spine (outside of the Aquilani/Lucas debate), is less in doubt. Aurelio’s at least a week or two away from fitness, as is Skrtel, so the backline should remain the same for the fifth-straight game.

After struggling since mid-winter (where have I heard that before?), Sunderland’s picked up steam lately, losing just once in their last nine. Like Liverpool, their “revival” has come almost all at home; Sunderland’s first and only away league win came in the first match of the season. Bent’s scoring for fun, but he’s basically the only one doing so for Sunderland. Meanwhile, Mensah, Jones, and Reid are Sunderland’s injury doubts.

Benitez-led sides have always struggled against Steve Bruce’s teams, whether it's been Brum, Wigan, or Sunderland. One league win in nine, last year’s 3-2 comeback over Wigan, against those three teams when Bruce has been at the helm. His massive melon must obscure Rafa’s view of the pitch or something. Here’s hoping past is no precedent.

Just as here’s hoping the past 31 games aren’t precedent for the next seven. All Liverpool can do is win one and then keep winning.

Kuyt or Maxi, Babel or Benayoun

In lieu of more macro-level wrist-slitting about the club and manager's prospects, I'd rather investigate one of the tactical areas that irritated me yesterday (yeah, there were more than just this, but I'd rather write about the wingers than the fullbacks or Gerrard).

For the fourth straight game against 'top-level' opposition, Maxi's started on the left. Admittedly, I didn't see a ton of him at Atletico or for Argentina, but when I have, he's been deployed on the right every time.

Maxi on the left: 1-2 United (a); 0-0 City (a); 0-1 Arsenal (a); 1-0 Everton (h)
Maxi on the right: 4-1 Pompey (h); 0-1 Wigan (a); 2-1 Blackburn (h); 0-0 Wolves (a)

If Maxi starting on the left when either Babel or Benayoun (or both) has been available isn't the perfect demonstration of Benitez's conservatism, I don't know what is. It's ostensibly "worked" in two of those matches, Everton and City (as both sides were clearly content with a draw at the Eastlands), and Liverpool could have eked at least a point out of United or Arsenal if other things went differently, but I can't remember Maxi making much impact in any of the four.

Despite Liverpool's record when Maxi's started on the right, that's where he's done the most, and it's led to Liverpool at least looking cohesive going forward. He was excellent against Pompey and good against Blackburn. The entire team was dire in the two losses, and Maxi's excusable for a poor game in his first start, at Wolves.

It's symptomatic of how Benitez uses the flanks, trying to control the game out wide as he does in midfield. There are multiple pros and cons to the 'keep it tight' method in certain matches; it's one of the ongoing endless debates about Rafa's tactics. It's led to some brilliant performances in Europe and the league in previous years, but few if any in this one. We can argue about how many ways this season's gone wrong; I've come up with multiple excuses over the past months. And I'll unashamedly admit to stretching for ways to defend Benitez, but I've at least come to the conclusion that his thinking about the wings has to change.

The flanks have been at or near the top of the list of Liverpool's weak spots since Rafa arrived, mainly manned by Nuñez, Luis Garcia, Kewell, Pennant, Gonzalez, or Zenden prior to this crop. Of course, the combined cost of those players not including Kewell (bought by Houllier) is less than £15m and almost all in the fees for Pennant and Garcia. The cliché of not buying championships in bargain bins yet again rings true. And money's yet again the root of all evil, but Rafa hasn't helped himself in prioritizing other areas. And to compare to Benitez's Valencia, set out in a similar formation, Liverpool's never had a Vicente (or even a Rufete), and for some reason, hasn't gone out and got one.

The point of this isn't to single out individual players (although I clearly am), bash Benitez, or again snipe at the owners for not having any money. But it's apparent, even to a sycophant like me, that Liverpool and Benitez need to stop undervaluing the flanks.

I've written countless words about how the fullbacks ideally provide the width in Liverpool's system, but this season's made clear we're not in an ideal world. Johnson and Insua are a whole different kettle of fish, but suffice it to say that fullbacks bombing forward have been problematic for multiple reasons.

I try not to let solitary games affect me, especially solitary games where I pretend to expect Liverpool to lose, but Valencia might have been what finally prompted this post. Having a player who can create that sort of threat from out wide, drawing defenders and pinning wingers, absolutely can change a game. And you have to pay the premium for that presence. At the same time, you need workhorses and piano-carriers – just like Kuyt (who I'll continue to defend until the singularity reemerges) – which is why I'm focusing on the left flank.

I'm also well aware that both Babel and Benayoun are right-footed players probably best in other positions. I still question whether either can be a full-time starter on the left, and that Benitez has used Maxi there against United, Arsenal, City, and Everton means he does as well. It's a pity Riera's napalmed his bridges, but it's not as if he's done much of anything this season either. Although, to be fair, the combination of the three did lead Liverpool to its highest points total in years last season.

At the least, we've seen some continued attacking cohesion when Babel and Benayoun have been on the left, as we have when Maxi's been on the right. Kuyt's obviously going to start most games, but Maxi has and should continue to spell him at times, especially against lesser opposition, as against Pompey and Blackburn.

Long story short, pick a flank and stay there, at least for the rest of the season. And in the off-season, no matter what turmoil goes on (and there assuredly will be some turmoil), this is again the position I most want to see addressed.

Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United

Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Insua
Lucas Mascherano
Kuyt Gerrard Maxi
Torres

Goals:
Torres 5’
Rooney 12’
Park 60’

Sigh. I wish I were surprised.

Instead of delirium, a dream start through Torres (who else) scarily evoked memories of going ahead against Chelsea in the CL last season before losing 1-3. And it proved true, despite the game settling into the usual war with multiple talking points. As if it’d transpire any other way.

Within five minutes, a quick counter through Gerrard and Kuyt found the Dutchman in space on the right, sending in a picture-perfect cross to find Torres wide open between Rio and Neville. Heading practice, one-nil.

But it didn’t take long for United to equalize, naturally through Shrek, and not without a mound of controversy. Insua gifted possession to Valencia, and when Mascherano couldn’t keep up with the winger, committed a foul similar to Vermaelen’s sending off yesterday. As feared, Valencia posed an absolute handful.

Masch’s yellow could easily have been red. But that penalty could easily have been a free kick, with contact clearly starting outside the box. And despite Reina saving Rooney’s penalty, the rebound fell fortuitously for England’s Greatest Hero™. If I’m honest, I’d rather the penalty and yellow instead of a red card, but I’d far rather a free kick and yellow, which it could have been were it not for Howard Webb wearing Manchester Red today.

Just like in two of the last three meetings, the team that went ahead first only to concede an equalizer spent most of the time on the back foot as United look to press their advantage. With scads of possession, they limited Liverpool to few and far between counters, but rarely tested Reina in the own right. Park’s 23rd minute free header wide from nearly the same position as Torres’ goal was either side’s best chance since scoring. It was United/Liverpool. It wasn’t going to play out in any other way.

Unfortunately, the second half continued to tilt in United’s direction. Liverpool found it hard to claim the ball, let alone retain it. Even if Liverpool’s goal had been untroubled, when the announcers stated United had two-thirds of the second-half possession, you knew it’d be a matter of time. That it took less than 30 seconds was the only surprise.

It came through Park, United’s best player (yeah, not Rooney!), making clear why Ferguson loves him in big games. He got forward from his role in United’s 4-3-3, created the other best chance of the first half, and scored a stellar diving header from Fletcher’s right wing cross after Neville sucked the defender with an overlapping run.

From there, United were content to sit back and stifle Liverpool, limited to two solitary chances, both missed by Torres, both coming when Gerrard was able to find space on the right to center, in the 62nd and 90th. He tried to take a touch with the first, allowing Ferdinand to clear, and completely fluffed the second, popping it up where Benayoun could only send a tame header straight at Van der Sar. United never looked like getting a third for the nail in the coffin, but Liverpool rarely looked like equalizing.

To be bluntly honest, Liverpool lost to a better team, and I expected it. The early Torres strike lifted spirits, but United were worthy winners, in better form, with a stronger squad, and with a massive grudge to avenge. Liverpool were never going to do the double over United in consecutive years where Manchester could win the title in both.

Once again, I’ve drawn the formation up as 4-2-3-1 almost out of convenience, although it clearly was the base formation. But as we’ve seen in recent games, the side’s become a bit more flexible, to its benefit. When defending, it was a standard 4-4-2, with Gerrard on the same line as Torres and the wingers supporting the fullbacks instead of vice versa. In attack, especially on the break, it was a lopsided 4-3-3, with Kuyt higher and Rodriguez sticking nearer to Lucas and Masch.

When the substitutions came around the 75th, it was simply a more attacking 4-2-3-1, with a front four of Babel, Gerrard, Aquilani, and Torres. And while I was pleased to see both Aquilani and Babel, neither could change the game as hoped, and (although there’ve been few appearance to go by) I’m coming to the conclusion that Aquilani needs to start to have an impact.

Regardless, the game was lost in two areas: being outnumbered in midfield and down Liverpool’s left. The platform of Fletcher, Carrick, and Park were excellent, nullifying Lucas and Mascherano’s nullification, although aided by Mascherano’s early yellow that shackled him. And as feared, Valencia gave Insua a torrid time, not helped by Rodriguez playing increasingly narrow and Agger trying to get forward when possible.

The uphill climb for fourth has certainly gotten steeper, but we shouldn’t have been counting on points here, as fatalistic as that sounds. Fourth place wasn’t lost today, no matter what tomorrow’s papers say. Liverpool was and still is contingent on others dropping points. Both Spurs and City still have to face United, as well as each other and the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal, while Villa’s been as unconvincing as Liverpool of late and frequently ends the season on a low note.

At most, Liverpool can only drop points in one or two matches over the next seven. Anything more than a solitary loss or two draws will make the climb impossible. Five wins and two draws, achievable over the run-in, would leave Liverpool on 68 points, which is what Arsenal took for 4th last season.

But the razor’s edge has gotten that much finer, just as we’ve come to expect throughout this season.

Liverpool at Manchester United 03.21.10

9:30am, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last 4 head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (h) 10.25.09
4-1 Liverpool (a) 03.14.09
2-1 Liverpool (h) 09.13.08
0-3 United (a) 03.23.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Lille (h); 4-1 Pompey (h); 0-1 Lille (a)
United: 3-0 Fulham (h); 4-0 Milan (h); 1-0 Wolves (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 15; Kuyt 9; Gerrard 6; Benayoun 5; Ngog 4; Babel 3; Johnson 2; Aquilani, Kyrgiakos, Skrtel 1
United: Rooney 25; Berbatov 10; Valencia 5; Fletcher, Owen 3; Carrick, Giggs, Scholes 2; Anderson, Diouf, Gibson, Nani, O’Shea, Park, Rafael, Vidic 1

Referee: Howard Webb

Webb's been a bad luck charm against the Arse of late, but he was in charge of the 2-1 victory in September ‘08 when Liverpool finally beat United in the league.

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Insua
Lucas Mascherano
Kuyt Gerrard Maxi
Torres

Get excited seeing Liverpool pour forward recently? Enjoy the newfound attacking flair that’s brought seven goals in two games? Too bad.

This is Liverpool at Old Trafford against the Mancs. It’s not going to be aesthetically pleasing. It’s probably not going to be fun to watch. And it’s probably not going to be good for any of our nerves.

It’ll be the tried-and-true 4-2-3-1, holding and countering. Even if Aquilani’s recovered from his virus, I expect to see Lucas and Mascherano, and I expect Lucas to sit deeper, as he did in the second half on Thursday. But those box-to-box runs will be necessary if and when Liverpool get an opportunity. Still, if any magic’s created, chances are it’s coming from Torres and Gerrard, who’ve thankfully picked up steam this month. I hope Vidic has a supply of diapers ready for the pants-shitting terror that is Fernando Torres.

I’ve more of a question over who’ll start on the flanks, which is the only real area I’ve questions over. The only player we can safely rule out is Riera; Kuyt, Babel, Maxi, and Benayoun all have decent arguments. Kuyt’s rarely if ever left out for big games. Maxi looked excellent against Portsmouth, albeit on the right. Babel’s started the last three matches and looked a terror in the last two. And Benayoun's creativity and guile have cut open a fair few teams. But I think Kuyt and Maxi will get the nod, although I write that with no great sense of security.

United have also scored seven in their last two matches, housing Milan and Fulham at home. Now's probably a bad time to mention how bad Liverpool's been on the road. And United have a week to prepare for this one, compared to three days for Liverpool. Rooney’s in superlative form, scoring for absolute fun and even mentioned as a challenge to Messi as the best player in the world. That might be a bit far fetched, as Messi’s demonstrated this week, but Rooney’s assuredly up there.

I’m also deathly afraid of Valencia or Nani (probably Valencia) up against Insua. The young fullback’s come under scrutiny of late, given a tough time in recent matches. It demonstrates the lack of depth in Liverpool’s squad more than says anything about Insua’s talents. He's still a kid, and I’m still surprised Dossena was sold with Aurelio’s injury history. But the backline’s set in stone, and whoever plays at left wing will have to track back (which Babel did to much, much better effect yesterday).

Somehow, Liverpool have won three straight over the Mancs, which is probably more motivation for Manchester than reassurance for Liverpool. The Mancs have a 1-4 loss a year ago to avenge, while Liverpool just has to keep winning for a shot at fourth, a result that could ultimately save the club.

No biggie.

Europa League QF/SF Draw

Benfica/Liverpool v Valencia/Atletico
Hamburg/Standard Liege v Fulham/Wolfsburg

Payback time for Champions League '05-06. That'll do, especially since I was convinced Liverpool would face Atletico or Valencia. We'll have to wait for the semis for that one, if Liverpool can replicate yesterday's result.

Could be worse, but could be a lot easier as well. Liverpool's side of the bracket looks far more ferocious. Angel Di Maria is one of the hottest wingers in the world. Pablo Aimar, whom Benitez knows well, is a perpetual danger. Oscar Cardozo is a dangerous striker and free kick specialist. Ramires is a beast of a midfielder. This article, from Zonal Marking (which absolutely everyone should be reading), makes me even more nervous.

I saw most of the Marseille/Benfica match yesterday, and I was massively impressed with Benfica's late fight back. Even though Marseille scored first, in the 70th at home and with an away goal advantage, only one team looked like winning, and Benfica did so with two goals in the last 15 minutes.

And then, if Liverpool manage to go through, there'll be Atletico or Valencia, with Kun Aguero or David Villa waiting in the wings. Of course, the year Liverpool drops to the Europa League, it's absolutely stacked.

At least Liverpool is at Anfield for the second leg in both the quarters and semis (again, if Liverpool advance). The QFs take place 4/1 and 4/8.

For shits and giggles, here's the CL Draw as well:

Inter/CSKA Moscow v Arsenal/Barcelona
Bayern/Man United v Lyon/Bordeaux

Lovely. Another year where the Mancs get a yellow brick road to the Finals. Probably the only English team happy with their draw. Grrr. Naturally, I blame Platini.