30 January 2007

Liverpool 2-1 West Ham

A 2-1 win, and I’m not happy. Maybe that’s a good sign. They do say a hallmark of a good team is winning the game where you’re not at your best.

But I wasn’t pleased with the first half, wasn’t pleased with the refereeing, and wasn’t pleased that Liverpool was under the cosh for the last 15 minutes because the linesman couldn’t tell that Kepa Blanco was a yard offside.

Liverpool totally dominated possession in the first half, but was unable to utilize it. It was nice to see Rafa come out with three strikers, showing that Liverpool was going to attack despite being away from home, but it seemed as if Kuyt was playing too deep to be effective and Finnan (who I rarely, if ever, have complaints about) wasn’t doing enough to get the ball in the box from the right flank. But Liverpool wasn’t getting much from either flank, in contrast to the way they played at Watford. Liverpool also lost possession far too often, but with the way players (and the manager, try and find the video) were slipping all over the pitch, that could be expected.

Couldn’t have asked for a better start to the second half, though. West Ham came out from the half late, and was caught unaware before 15 seconds were off the clock. Liverpool kicked off, Alonso played a long pass to Crouch, who chested down and squared it for Kuyt to angle (from outside the box) into the back of the net. Exceptional technique on a gorgeous shot by Kuyt, and in the back of the net before the Hammers knew what hit them.

The second goal was even better. Seven minutes later, after another nice series of moves, Riise pulled it back for Crouch (happy birthday, Peter) to side-foot past Roy Carroll. Superb team goal, pretty one-touch passing, and another fine finish. West Ham looked flailing, and it looked done and dusted. It should have been done and dusted.

Liverpool could have had more, but after not getting the third, they seemed to let West Ham back in the game. The first fifteen minutes of the second half might have been the best Liverpool’s played away from home all season, but then it seemed they shifted into neutral. Curbishley’s striker substitutions, Cole and Harewood off for Blanco and Zamora also helped the Hammers.

But Blanco’s goal, on 77 minutes after some casual defending by Liverpool, should have never stood. Not by a long shot. In addition to the offside, Pennant was fouled on the change of possession. That would be the second goal (one of Baptista’s many in the Carling Cup as well) Martin Atkinson’s allowed that was clearly offside. Now that Uriah Rennie’s been demoted, I think I might have a new favorite ref.

The last 15 minutes saw Liverpool hang on for dear life, West Ham throw everything they could at the opposition’s goal, and the loss of all my fingernails. But the three points were secured, and Liverpool is 2 points behind Chelsea (with the Blues to play Blackburn tomorrow). Not to mention that both Arsenal and United lost at Upton Park. That will do.

MOM: Hyypia. Cleared absolutely everything in the air, even though I don’t think Carlton Cole ever moved faster than a light jog. Agger, Alonso and Reina also deserve mentions, all played very well. Pepe especially pulled off some nice saves.

29 January 2007

Liverpool at West Ham 01.30.07

2:45pm, live in the US on Setanta.

Liverpool: 3rd place; 46 points out of 24 games
West Ham: 18th place; 20 points out of 24 games

Last 4 meetings:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 08.26.06
3-3 (3-1 pen) Liverpool (FA Cup) 05.13.06
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.26.06
2-0 Liverpool (h) 10.29.05

Last 3 games:
Liverpool: 2-0 Chelsea (h); 3-0 Watford (a); 3-6 Arsenal (h)
West Ham: 0-1 Watford (h); 2-2 Newcastle (a); 3-3 Fulham (h)

Goalscorers (league; more than one goal):
Liverpool: Kuyt 8; Bellamy 6; Crouch 5; Gerrard 4; Alonso, Garcia 3; Gonzalez 2
West Ham: Zamora 6; Benayoun, Cole, Harewood, Mullins, Sheringham 2

Referee: Martin Atkinson (you may remember him from a postponement earlier this season)

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Finnan, Carragher, Agger, Aurelio
Pennant, Gerrard, Alonso, Riise
Kuyt, Bellamy

I’m conflicted.

On one hand, I’d like to see the same lineup that went out at Watford, using all three strikers to take the game to the opposition relentlessly. West Ham’s not been the best defensively, and the 3-4-3 (well, that’s the formation it most resembled) would put pressure on them from the start.

However, with Pennant’s recent form, especially given the Chelsea match, I can’t see him being left out. Yes, it wouldn’t do wonders for his confidence to leave him on the bench, but that’s not the primary concern, as the team’s always going to come first. Pennant truly has made Liverpool a better side in the past few games he’s started with his crossing, pace, and most impressively, his vision in picking out the right pass.

Therefore, I’m going with the same lineup that went out against Chelsea, expect for Bellamy in for Crouch, although none of the options would surprise me. I think that Belllamy’s pace will have the best chance of unhinging West Ham’s defense. Ferdinand, Gabbidon and Collins are all out with injuries, leaving new-boy Calum Davenport to be paired with Jonathan Spector or Christian Dailly. In addition, leg-breaker and all-around jerk Lucas Neill is out with an ankle sprain or something (karma). On paper, it looks like the backline is there for the taking, although it merits a mention that Curbishley’s teams have always been solid at the back. And once again, it’s Crouchy who appears to be odd man out.

Most of the others write themselves. Sissoko and Zenden may return by the derby, but the central midfield looks to be Gerrard and Alonso for the foreseeable future. Aurelio and Riise combined quite well against Chelsea and I expect, as in that game, Riise will play ahead of Fabio for the majority of the match. Meanwhile, the backline looks to have returned to the form displayed last season, as the goal given up to Blackburn is the lone league goal scored by opposition since November.

As many, including Benitez, have said over the past week, beating Chelsea will have meant little if a win isn’t picked up tomorrow. Liverpool must continue the form they’ve shown if there’s any hope of narrowing the gap with Chelsea and United. Not to mention that Arsenal’s right on their heels. A win tomorrow will keep up the pace needed to compete for second, in addition to providing morale and momentum going into this weekend’s derby, where revenge will be on the minds.

Predictions 1/30-1/31

Tuesday
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough, 2:45pm, FSC: I’ve been slamming Boro lately, and they’ve started delivering results like last week’s 5-1 affair over Bolton. If Downing plays as he did in that game, Boro’s a much different, and much better, team. Fratton Park’s a difficult place to play not even considering Pompey’s form (they’re still in 5th, mind), so if Boro’s playing well, a draw seems the most likely result. 1-1
Reading v Wigan, 3:00pm, Setanta Xtra: Wigan’s barely hovering above the drop zone, and if any of the teams below them go on a run, the Latics could be in for trouble. Seven successive defeats in the league haven’t helped either. Reading’s been this season’s version of last season’s Wigan (such a handy narrative…), and we’ll see similarly scrappy styles, but Reading looks to have the edge on form and morale. Reading 2-1
Sheffield United v Fulham, 2:45pm: I’ve been ever so pleased with Fulham’s moves this transfer window. Montella (who I will continue to rave about), Dempsey, Smertin, and even Simon Davies add something to this squad, and I think the spending shows al-Fayed’s faith in Chris Coleman. That said, Sheffield is and will continue to be difficult to beat at home. 2-2

Wednesday
Chelsea v Blackburn, 2:45pm, FSC: Blackburn was rampant over a poor Luton in the FA Cup, but Chelsea also rolled over an awed and out of sorts Nottingham Forest. Wednesday is too early to expect John Terry to return, but Mourinho’s been seen smiling again and Chelsea look likely to be back on track. And if not back on track, at the least I highly doubt we’ll ever see their backline as suspect as it was against Liverpool. Chelsea 2-0
Newcastle v Aston Villa, 3:00pm, Setanta Xtra: Villa’s spent as much as any team in the Prem outside of West Ham, although mainly on one player. Both Ashley Young and John Carew will help Villa greatly, as they’ve been missing goals since Luke Moore’s injury. Newcastle’s still hit or miss, more often hit at home than miss (let’s not count the FA Cup game, shall we?), but I think Villa will start to return to the form they began the season with. Villa 2-1
Bolton v Charlton, 3:00pm: Winless in the last three in the Prem, Bolton will look to give 19th placed Charlton a thrashing at the Reebok. If they’re going to survive the drop, Charlton will have to play as they did against Portsmouth in all their away games, and I don’t see that happening here. Bolton 2-0
Manchester United v Watford, 3:00pm: One would think that getting a good 1-0 win over West Ham in the FA Cup would boost Watford’s morale go into their next match. Pity that match is against United, at Old Trafford. United 3-0

Arsenal v Tottenham (agg 2-2), 2:45pm Setanta: Bonus Carling Cup action, with all to play for in the second leg for the right to meet Chelsea in the final. If Tottenham had been able to hold onto the 2-0 lead they took into halftime in the last match, we’d have a completely different game here. But Baptista scored twice in the second half, and Arsenal has firm control of the tie with the away goals advantage and this leg at the Emirates. Arse 3-1 (5-3 agg)

Liverpool at West Ham is on Setanta at 2:45 Tuesday. Preview up later.

28 January 2007

How much would you pay?

A completely arbitrary exercise created by an overload of transfer speculation. What would Liverpool expect to get if they sold any of the first team? Thankfully, Liverpool isn't a selling team.

Remember, these are completely arbitrary, made up by me, off the top of my head, with no transfer rumors or speculation attached. The insanity of the window prompts this disclaimer.

Yes, I know I overrate some (most). Gerrard and Alonso aren't them, though.

Reina = £10m
Dudek = £2m
Finnan = £7m
Carra = £15m
Hyypia = £3m
Agger = £8m
Riise = £8-10m
Aurelio = £3m
Pennant = £8m
Gerrard = £50m
Alonso = £35-40m
Sissoko = £10m
Gonzalez = £5m
Garcia = £7m
Crouch = £12m
Kuyt = £12-15m
Bellamy = £9m

26 January 2007

FA Cup 4th round

No Premier League this weekend due to the 4th round of the FA Cup. This is too long to wait between Liverpool games.

In coping, here are some random predictions (honestly, the best part about the FA Cup is the fact it’s impossible to predict for the first few rounds and guarantees some upsets and replays) to try and hold me over.

Outside of the big names, I’m most interested in Fulham v Stoke and Bristol City (playing very well of late in League One) v Boro. Both feel as if they could be upsets, but Boro has been on a goal-scoring streak of late with Downing’s resurgence and Fulham’s fortunate to being playing at home.

Saturday
Luton v Blackburn, 7:30am, FSC: Blackburn 2-0
Tottenham v Southend, 10:00am, FSC: Tottenham 2-0
Barnet v Plymouth, 10:00am: Plymouth 2-1
Birmingham v Reading, 10:00am: Brum 2-1
Blackpool v Norwich, 10:00am: Norwich 1-0
Bristol City v Middlesbrough, 10:00am: 0-0
Crystal Palace v Preston, 10:00am: Preston 2-1
Derby v Bristol Rovers, 10:00am: Derby 3-0
Fulham v Stoke, 10:00am: Fulham 1-0
Ipswich v Swansea, 10:00am: Swansea 3-2
West Ham v Watford, 10:00am: West Ham 1-0
Manchester United v Portsmouth, 12:15pm, Setanta PPV: United 2-0

Sunday
Wolverhampton v West Brom, 7:00am: 0-0
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest, 9:00am, FSC: Chelsea 3-1
Manchester City v Southampton, 10:00am: City 1-0
Arsenal v Bolton, 11:00am, Setanta PPV: Arse 2-0

Someone outside of the big four really has to win the FA Cup this year. I can’t see Chelsea, United or Arsenal losing at this stage, but there’s always hope. Since 2000, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Arsenal, United, Arsenal, and Liverpool have lifted the trophy. So long have we heard about the magic of the cup, for the sake of the mythology, I’m really hoping someone else gets a shot this year. By the way, the last time an FA Cup final took place without any of those four teams was 1991.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss?

Michel Platini was elected President of UEFA ahead of incumbent Lennart Johansson this morning. I can’t say I’m thrilled (I certainly would have voted for Johansson), but hopefully, Platini will come to realize it’s a figurehead position and won’t attempt to bring his proposed changes to the European game.

The cause for this concern is Platini’s constantly stated proposal to limit countries to three teams in the Champions League. According to the incoming President, England, Italy, and Spain should no longer receive 4 Champions League places, TV revenue and G-14 be damned. This year, Arsenal, Osasuna, and Chievo Verona wouldn’t have made the Champions League. Osasuna and Chievo were admittedly surprises, and on face value, might not deserve to be in the tournament as neither qualified for the group stages, but it’s hard to say that they took a spot from a team more deserving.

Look at the usual suspects from the national leagues. Competition for Champions League places in these organizations is already heated. And now, one of United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool would miss the CL every season. In Spain, there are Real, Barca, Valencia, Sevilla, and Villarreal, among others. In Italy (after Juve returns from Serie B), there’s AC Milan, Inter, Roma, and Juve. Every year, one of the biggest names in club football, if not more than one, will miss out on its biggest tournament.

It wouldn’t kill the competition, but it certainly wouldn’t help competition or revenue. As Johansson himself repeatedly said, why change a success? Why try and kill the goose laying you golden eggs?

I still find it hard to believe that the G-14, the organization made up of the largest clubs and stalking horse of European football, would agree to or ever allow this to happen. Their clubs would be those that will lose places and revenue. England especially, as the bulk of television revenue comes from the UK.

I’m sincerely hoping Platini’s proposal is campaign trail talk and nothing more. Pleasantries and empty promises to encourage the smaller national associations to vote for him. Because I firmly believe that it would be to the detriment of the tournament to take these teams out of the Champions League. Primarily, you’re losing a big name that will bring fans and revenue to the tournament, more so than any team that would replace them, but it’s more than that.

It will not help winners from smaller nations last longer in the Champions League. Chances are, those teams will still lose to bigger opposition, whether it’s the 3rd or 4th placed team from said country. And it will not increase the visibility and viability of the UEFA Cup. There will always be only one Champions League.

Not to mention that traveling down this road will bring UEFA in direct competition with its biggest clubs and the G-14. Fostering these divisions cannot be good for the game, simple as.

If Platini’s proposal was already law, Liverpool wouldn’t have won the CL in 2005. There would have been no Garcia wonder-goal against Juve, no ‘did it cross the line?’ controversy against Chelsea, and no greatest comeback in European Cup history. Liverpool fan or not, there’s reason enough.

But hey, Sepp Blatter fully supports and endorses Platini, so everything must be fine.

23 January 2007

January in East London

It’s amazed me how many times I’ve seen West Ham’s name come up in transfer dealings and speculation. Eggert Magnusson will seemingly sign anyone in the hopes of staying in the Premier League for next year’s television money bonanza. West Ham is spending money hand over fist so far, and the transfer window still has a week to go.

Luis Boa Morte - ~£5m (undisclosed)
Calum Davenport - ~£3m (undisclosed)
Lucas Neill - ~£1.5m (undisclosed)
Nigel Quashie - £1.5m
Kepa Blanco – loan, option to buy in June

In addition, Ashley Young turned down an £8m+ move, and West Ham has had bids of £4m and £6m rejected for Matty Upson. Including the money for those two players, West Ham’s spending would have totaled somewhere near £25 million, not including wages. As it stands, it’s closer to £11m. Still no small change, especially after you've already dropped over £85m to purchase the club.

Curbishley has identified where he sees weaknesses in West Ham, but will it do them any good? On paper, Boa Morte should bring goals, Neill solves the right back problem, Davenport will be cover for Ferdinand and Gabbidon, and Quashie is a veteran of relegation struggles (a backhanded compliment if I’ve ever written one), but will they settle, will they fit with the rest of the squad?

The biggest fear is West Ham will dole out this money in fees and wages, and still go down in May. It would leave the club in a far worse situation than when they were relegated in 2003. Not only due to the loss of TV revenue (this year the winning club will get £30m, next year’s last-placed side will earn that), but I don’t know if they have the assets of the 2003 squad. Money lost through relegation was recouped by the sales of Cole, Defoe, James, and Carrick among others. Ashton, Reo-Coker, Benayoun and Anton Ferdinand may garner the same, but it would severely deplete the club and squash their promotion hopes for at least a season.

The Hammers currently sit in 18th among the relegation places, and look at the games they still have to play. They are still to face all the top-five sides, although they’re only away to Arsenal and United. Against direct relegation competition, they have to travel to Sheffield, Wigan and Charlton; the only home game against a team with a similar league position is against Watford.

But what are their options? It all comes down to Magnusson. To make a difference, it has to be silly money; the January transfer market almost always brings inflated costs and second-choice signings. He made the first step in firing Pardew and shelling out for Curbishley, and since he’s already started down the road, it makes sense to continue.

His other option was to sit back and hope for the best. Pray that the talent already in the side would be enough to see the season out. Start saving money and selling assets now, also known as the Watford method. Hammers fans would have never accepted that, not to mention how ridiculous it would make his original investment in the club look.

So really, the point of this wasn’t to question spending. Magnusson has to spend for the sake of the club, there’s no other choice thanks to West Ham’s start to the season. I don’t know if I would spend in a similar manner; I can pick flaws in each of the signings, but as has been said, you make the most out of what’s available in January, as you don’t always have the pick of the player.

I just don’t know if it will turn their season around. That's the $64,000 question. Watford, Wigan, and Charlton seem more likely prospects for the drop, especially with their play of late, but West Ham has been contravening expectations all season.

We will, however, get to see if Curbishley is the miracle worker he was made out to be at Charlton.

22 January 2007

On Stephen Warnock

It’s with sadness that Liverpool sees Stephen Warnock on to Blackburn. His transfer was a long time coming, and honestly, was a piece of business Liverpool was always going to do, but Warnock will still be missed.

The boy simply oozed passion for the club, and not only because he was a local lad. It was the way he always played; you couldn’t ask for a better attitude. He came back from two broken legs and a number of loan spells, and never gave up the belief he could and would make it in Liverpool’s first team. Like many others who have now left the club, he also played his part in the Champions League run in 04-05.

As it stands, Warnock won’t be a first team regular for Liverpool. A number of interviews with current players see them name Warnock as one of the hardest tacklers in the team, which isn’t surprising given his attitude, but his positional sense has never matched his desire. Riise and Aurelio are both ahead of Warnock on the depth chart and look to remain there. They offer more options in the position, and both are better suited for the game Benitez plays.

This move should be exactly what Warnock needs. He’s a Premiership-level defender, and has been capped as a full English international; there was never a chance he’d end up back at Coventry or in a similar situation. He’s still fairly young at 25, and will get the playing time necessary to improve his game. And in Mark Hughes he’ll have a tough-nosed manager who’ll match his passion.

Below, Warnock’s only goal for Liverpool, is a perfect example of how much the lad wanted to do well for the club. Just look at the ecstasy in his celebration despite the fact it’s a late goal in a game long won.

Good luck, Stevie.