12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC
Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.01.15
1-3 City (a) 08.25.14
3-2 Liverpool (h) 04.13.14
1-2 City (a) 12.26.13
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Palace (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 3-1 Chelsea (a)
City: 0-0 Villa (a); 3-1 Sevilla (a); 2-1 Norwich (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Coutinho 4; Ings, Sturridge 2; Milner 1
City: Agüero 6; Sterling 4; De Bruyne 3; Bony, Fernandinho, Kompany, Toure 2; Iheanacho, Kolarov, Nasri, Otamendi, Silva 1
Referee: Jon Moss
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Milner Lucas Can
Lallana Coutinho
Benteke
Maybe it's just me, but it seems like it's been a long time since Liverpool played a match. Stupid international breaks.
I have two questions: whether Liverpool stick with the more recently used 4-2-3-1 or revert to the 4-3-2-1 and, regardless of formation, which two from Milner, Firmino, and Lallana start.
Whichever formation Klopp chooses, there won't be many surprises in the XI. Liverpool's current player availability doesn't really allow for surprises.
In theory, the 4-3-2-1 could provide more midfield protection and congestion, leaving less space in front of Skrtel and Lovren and making it easier to double up on the dangerous Sterling and de Bruyne. Benteke up front gives Liverpool a potential much-needed out-ball if (when) the side's pinned back, although that front three – any front three – will probably be isolated against this side on this ground. It'd be a big day for Milner and Can as the side midfielders, both in defense and attack. But we haven't seen Liverpool line up in this formation since the 1-1 draw against Southampton a month ago.
As for the personnel. If it's 4-3-2-1, Milner will definitely start, with either Firmino or Lallana opposite Coutinho behind Benteke. If it's 4-2-3-1, it's harder to guess; Firmino or Lallana centrally, Milner or Lallana on the right. Your guess is as good as mine. With six weeks of practice, it's become easier to forecast what Klopp's going to do, but there are still some surprises.
One that won't be a surprise is Daniel Sturridge. It's great – absolutely great – that he's finally back in training. He remains a game-changing difference to this team and club. With a fit Sturridge, the sky's the limit. Without, Liverpool are a fairly standard upper mid-table club who need help and luck to be better than average. But he's not going to start. Off the bench? I think so, I hope so; 20-30 minutes to potentially make all the difference. But from the opening whistle? That seems way too large a gamble considering the player's length injury history, no matter the opposition.
Unlike Sturridge, I expect Sergio Agüero will be risked from the start. He's further along in his recovery, and Manchester City has plenty of experience with the timeline for Agüero's hamstring problems. And, like Sturridge, Agüero is utterly crucial to City performing to maximum capacity, even if they're obviously better able to cope with his absences. However, Kompany, Nasri, and Bony are out, while Silva, Zabaleta, and Delph are questionable.
Which suggests an XI of Hart; Sagna, Otamendi, Mangala, Kolarov; Toure, Fernandinho; Navas, De Bruyne, Sterling; Agüero. Maybe Yaya Toure's pushed further forward, with a midfield base of Fernando and Fernandinho, leading Navas on the bench. Both Iheanacho and Sterling are capable of playing up front if Agüero's to be used as a substitute. But I suspect we'll get Agüero, because he's Agüero, and we'll get Navas in the hopes of exploiting the space behind Moreno and outside of Lovren. And regardless, City are City, and even with absentees, City are strong.
Admittedly, City haven't had the easiest time with injuries, especially in attack. But that XI should have a lot more points than 26 through 12 matches, only ahead of Arsenal on goal difference. That XI should have a lot more goals than 26 through 12 matches, even if that total still leads the league.
As usual, they've one of the strongest sides, if not the strongest, in the league. Which, I guess is what happens when you take last season's second-place side and add £54m Kevin De Bruyne, £49m Raheem Sterling, and £32m Nicolas Otamendi.
I guess here is where I make mention of Raheem Sterling, even if I'd rather not. I still believe it was a good deal for both clubs: City needed the player, the player had no desire to stay at Liverpool, and Liverpool got a lot (a lot!) of money for a 20-year-old. That said, I've seen far too much 'hahaha Liverpool ripped them off for an unproven, overrated player with no football intelligence.' Both then and now. Sterling has his flaws: he doesn't always make the right decision in the final third and he's a fairly awful finisher. He's 20! Only Agüero has more league goals for City than Sterling; almost always used in a wide left berth, Raheem has the same amount as Liverpool's two top scorers. Only Fernandinho, Sagna, Hart, Toure, and Kolarov have played more minutes in the league and Europe than Sterling has. He gives City exactly what City needed: pace in the final third and a bit more width on the left. I am exceedingly fearful that he will punish Liverpool tomorrow.
This match-up has seen what were arguably Liverpool's two best wins in the last two seasons: 2-1 last season, 3-2 in 2013-14. Liverpool played well, Liverpool's game plan worked to near-perfection, Liverpool were resilient, Liverpool took its chances. But both of those matches were at Anfield. Liverpool haven't beaten City in the league at the Etihad since 2008-09, with four losses and two draws in the last six PL matches, comprehensively outplayed in the last two losses in the last two seasons.
However, Liverpool have been marginally better away from home than at Anfield this season: 2W-2D-2L at home, 2W-3D-1L on the road, made more emphatic when you look at who Liverpool's played in those matches. Bournemouth, West Ham, Norwich, Villa, Southampton, Palace at Anfield; Stoke, Arsenal, United, Everton, Tottenham, Chelsea away.
This is, finally, the last of Liverpool's Fury Road hellscape of away fixtures to start the season. After tomorrow, Liverpool will have played all of last season's top five on their ground; the only teams in the last season's top 10 that Liverpool have yet to travel to are Southampton, Swansea, and Palace. And, so far, Liverpool have lost just once: at Manchester United.
Any sort of result that involves a point – let alone three – tomorrow is a good result, considering form, fitness, finances, location, recent history, etc. And if Liverpool can get a good result, it puts them in good stead for the second half of the season given what's come before. Seven points behind fourth, currently 10th, is a long, long way back, but there's still a long time left in this season.
20 November 2015
17 November 2015
Steven Gerrard: 710 Games, 186 Goals [Infographic]
Click on the image to make even bigger in a new windowThis is something I should have finished over the summer, but when I didn't, I promptly forgot about it. Whoops. A lack of football – or even any interesting football "news" – during yet another international break at least gave me the opportunity to finally do so. Sorry about that. Now, it's much less timely, but still fairly fascinating (if I may so say myself, etc etc).
The graphic is self-explanatory. Steven Gerrard played a lot of games for Liverpool, Steven Gerrard scored a lot of goals for Liverpool. Just because we're in a different place now – for better and for worse – doesn't mean we can't still bask it in.
For thoroughness' sake, here's my exhaustive, way-too-extensive spreadsheet for all the goals.
As per usual, these historical infographics simply wouldn't be possible without LFC History. This YouTube video of all 186 goals was also quite helpful.
09 November 2015
Visualized: Liverpool 1-2 Crystal Palace
Previous Match Infographics: Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
We've seen this movie before.
We've seen Liverpool miss multiple chances before, we've seen Liverpool's shooting cost the side points before. More times than I'd like to list or remember. And it's been especially bad against Crystal Palace. The two matches against Crystal Palace last season saw Liverpool's second- and sixth-worst shooting accuracy in the league: 8.33% away (one on-target from 12) and 16.67% at home (three on-target from 18).
Yesterday's was 18.18%: four shots on-target, nine off, nine blocked. Which is bad, of course, but still just the fourth-worst through 12 league games, behind West Ham (7.69%), Bournemouth (11.11%), and Southampton (13.33%), the last of which, you'll remember, happened under Liverpool's current manager and at Anfield.
What makes yesterday worse is that Liverpool took 22 shots – the most under Klopp, and the second-most in a league match this season behind the 23 against Norwich – and that 16 of Liverpool's 22 shots came from inside the box, with 12 from in the Danger Zone. Just 25% of the Danger Zone shots (three of 12) were on-target – Liverpool, even with last season's abhorrent shooting, averaged 41.8% accuracy in the Danger Zone in 2014-15 – with the other four inside-the-box shots either off-target (1) or blocked (3). Both of last season's losses to Crystal Palace saw fewer shots in total, fewer shots in the Danger Zone, and more shots from outside the box.
This makes for depressing viewing:
You'll notice that five of the eight shots here are from Benteke – all five of his shots in the match. Sigh.
We've also seen those Crystal Palace goals before. Can's clearance across his box to the opposition scorer? Everton's equalizer a month ago. Mignolet punching the ball to the scorer from a corner? Norwich's equalizer at Anfield six weeks ago.
Both of those went down as Opta-defined defensive errors, that sometimes-useful, often-vague stat. Liverpool committed four yesterday: those two leading to goals and two other Can giveaways. Liverpool committed a single defensive error in each of Klopp's three league matches, but none led to a goal; that hadn't happened since Can at Everton. Liverpool last committed four defensive errors in back-to-back losses against Newcastle and Chelsea a year ago.
Liverpool allowed Palace just nine shots in total, fewer than the 15 and 16 they took in last season's losses. Only three of those shots came in the Danger Zone. But they were Bolasie's goal, Dann's goal, and Dann's first shot before his rebound goal. Otherwise? Five speculative efforts from outside the box and Bakary Sako's box-left big chance into the side netting.
Liverpool under Klopp are still doing a better job creating better chances, getting reasonably good shots, and preventing opposition shots. But Liverpool weren't good enough to convert their chances or to prevent errors and/or stop the opposition's, and the blame seems to be on factors we've decried over and over and over and etc etc.
It is probably not coincidence that Liverpool's two main scapegoats – Can for the first goal conceded and other errors, Benteke for his missed opportunities – played 90 minutes in Kazan on Thursday. Liverpool looked a side that played in Russia a few days ago; Palace looked a side that had a week between matches. This was the worry after Thursday's win.
A loss was always going to come, and sooner rather than later. That Klopp managed to go six games unbeaten to start his tenure remains impressive and reassuring. It's infuriating that this loss happened with Liverpool missing multiple chances, it's infuriating that both conceded goals were preventable, it's infuriating that it was against Liverpool's all-too-frequent bête noire. But Liverpool's problems still seem remediable, and this "bad loss" is still a dramatic improvement on last season's bad losses.
But just when we thought we were out of the woods, we're dragged back in again.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
We've seen this movie before.
We've seen Liverpool miss multiple chances before, we've seen Liverpool's shooting cost the side points before. More times than I'd like to list or remember. And it's been especially bad against Crystal Palace. The two matches against Crystal Palace last season saw Liverpool's second- and sixth-worst shooting accuracy in the league: 8.33% away (one on-target from 12) and 16.67% at home (three on-target from 18).
Yesterday's was 18.18%: four shots on-target, nine off, nine blocked. Which is bad, of course, but still just the fourth-worst through 12 league games, behind West Ham (7.69%), Bournemouth (11.11%), and Southampton (13.33%), the last of which, you'll remember, happened under Liverpool's current manager and at Anfield.
What makes yesterday worse is that Liverpool took 22 shots – the most under Klopp, and the second-most in a league match this season behind the 23 against Norwich – and that 16 of Liverpool's 22 shots came from inside the box, with 12 from in the Danger Zone. Just 25% of the Danger Zone shots (three of 12) were on-target – Liverpool, even with last season's abhorrent shooting, averaged 41.8% accuracy in the Danger Zone in 2014-15 – with the other four inside-the-box shots either off-target (1) or blocked (3). Both of last season's losses to Crystal Palace saw fewer shots in total, fewer shots in the Danger Zone, and more shots from outside the box.
This makes for depressing viewing:
Defensive errors were awful but our inability to convert our chances was also a big reason why we lost yesterday... pic.twitter.com/q8egrtDXOQ— LFCMostar (@LFCMostar) November 9, 2015You'll notice that five of the eight shots here are from Benteke – all five of his shots in the match. Sigh.
We've also seen those Crystal Palace goals before. Can's clearance across his box to the opposition scorer? Everton's equalizer a month ago. Mignolet punching the ball to the scorer from a corner? Norwich's equalizer at Anfield six weeks ago.
Both of those went down as Opta-defined defensive errors, that sometimes-useful, often-vague stat. Liverpool committed four yesterday: those two leading to goals and two other Can giveaways. Liverpool committed a single defensive error in each of Klopp's three league matches, but none led to a goal; that hadn't happened since Can at Everton. Liverpool last committed four defensive errors in back-to-back losses against Newcastle and Chelsea a year ago.
Liverpool allowed Palace just nine shots in total, fewer than the 15 and 16 they took in last season's losses. Only three of those shots came in the Danger Zone. But they were Bolasie's goal, Dann's goal, and Dann's first shot before his rebound goal. Otherwise? Five speculative efforts from outside the box and Bakary Sako's box-left big chance into the side netting.
Liverpool under Klopp are still doing a better job creating better chances, getting reasonably good shots, and preventing opposition shots. But Liverpool weren't good enough to convert their chances or to prevent errors and/or stop the opposition's, and the blame seems to be on factors we've decried over and over and over and etc etc.
It is probably not coincidence that Liverpool's two main scapegoats – Can for the first goal conceded and other errors, Benteke for his missed opportunities – played 90 minutes in Kazan on Thursday. Liverpool looked a side that played in Russia a few days ago; Palace looked a side that had a week between matches. This was the worry after Thursday's win.
A loss was always going to come, and sooner rather than later. That Klopp managed to go six games unbeaten to start his tenure remains impressive and reassuring. It's infuriating that this loss happened with Liverpool missing multiple chances, it's infuriating that both conceded goals were preventable, it's infuriating that it was against Liverpool's all-too-frequent bête noire. But Liverpool's problems still seem remediable, and this "bad loss" is still a dramatic improvement on last season's bad losses.
But just when we thought we were out of the woods, we're dragged back in again.
08 November 2015
Liverpool 1-2 Crystal Palace
Goals:
Bolasie 21'
Coutinho 42'
Dann 82'
Crystal Palace just brings out the worst in Liverpool.
An individual defensive error, Liverpool missing multiple chances, then shitting the bed on a set play. It's deja vu all over again.
That was a game that Liverpool shouldn't even have drawn, let alone lost. Liverpool, slow to start, had weathered Palace's early flurry without allowing any chances. But, just as Liverpool were getting back into the game, Palace regained possession in Liverpool's defensive third when Sako blocked Moreno's clearance, freeing Zaha in space on the right. Can was in position to cut out his low cross but bafflingly attempted to cushion it to Moreno rather than getting rid, only setting up Bolasie to hammer in from from 10 yards.
Sigh. I thought Liverpool had stopped setting up opposition goals. That's the seventh of the season: twice against West Ham, at Bordeaux, against Norwich, at Everton, at Chelsea, and now today; only Lallana's slight deflection of Azpilicueta's cross before Ramires' header last week was blameless. This was more in the vein of what we'd seen in the dark days earlier this season.
To Liverpool's credit, as they did against Kazan and Chelsea after conceding first, Liverpool quickly asserted control, and eventually found the equalizer. And should have been level far earlier than they were. To the surprise of no one, missed chances – especially from Benteke – would be a dominating theme.
But, as at Chelsea, Liverpool got that the equalizer just before halftime thanks to Philippe Coutinho: winning possession (from a Palace throw) in the opposition half, quickly pushing the ball to Ibe on the opposite flank, Ibe to Clyne to Lallana, back heeled just in front of Benteke but Coutinho in the right place for the loose ball.
Since the beginning of last season, Liverpool scored three Premier League equalizers under Brendan Rodgers: in the 3-1 win at Leicester, 2-2 draw v Arsenal, and 1-1 draw at Chelsea. Three equalizers in 46 matches, having gone behind in 17 of those 46. Klopp's Liverpool's now done that twice in four matches. I'd prefer if Liverpool stopped going behind, but at least we've seen more fight in the side.
Clearly, Liverpool would push on from here and exorcise its demons. And they should have. But Benteke missed two more wonderful chances and was ignored on a soft penalty shout. Liverpool monopolized the ball, but still couldn't create as much as they did before scoring, while Palace threatened exactly once: Zaha storming to the opposite end of the pitch after a Liverpool cross, but Sako only able to put his centered pass into the side netting from a narrow angle.
Liverpool wanted the winner, Liverpool needed the winner, Liverpool were seemingly on pace for the winner. So Liverpool went for it, bringing on Firmino for Can, switching to a 4-1-4-1 formation. You have to admire Klopp's willingness to go for it, to be bold – and Can, responsible for the opener, was clearly tiring – but Liverpool lost control of midfield following the substitution. Palace suddenly had much more space to break: both sides went end-to-end, both sides had chances. Neither had chances as good as the ones Liverpool spurned between Palace's opener and Can's substitution.
And then, the set play breakdown which always seemed inevitable last season and earlier in this, but hasn't for the last few weeks. Palace's sixth corner, the first chance created from a Palace corner: Scott Dann outmuscling Firmino, his first effort save but the rebound scored. Crystal Palace, man. Crystal Palace.
From there, sound and fury signifying nothing, Liverpool limited to Coutinho's left-footed shot from his spot tipped over by Hennessey. Liverpool end the match with 22 shots, 13 more than their opponents, with 16 inside the box and 12 in the Danger Zone. Liverpool end the match with 64% possession, with twice as many completed passes and three times as many completed attacking third passes.
And Liverpool lose.
You can't help but blame fatigue after the trip to Russia, despite assurances of the contrary; Liverpool creating less as the match went on, Can needing to go off, and four defensive errors (three from Can), the most since August 2012 suggest otherwise. You can't help but blame the substitution, even if you understand the logic and admire the motives. You can't help but blame Liverpool's continued profligacy, even if you assume it'll eventually come good; it has to, right? You can't help but blame Crystal Palace, because dammit Palace, stop this.
If Liverpool continue to play like this – wastefulness in front of goal not withstanding, obviously – they'll win a lot more than they lose, as they did in the previous three matches. But there's clearly still a long way to go.
Bolasie 21'
Coutinho 42'
Dann 82'
Crystal Palace just brings out the worst in Liverpool.
An individual defensive error, Liverpool missing multiple chances, then shitting the bed on a set play. It's deja vu all over again.
That was a game that Liverpool shouldn't even have drawn, let alone lost. Liverpool, slow to start, had weathered Palace's early flurry without allowing any chances. But, just as Liverpool were getting back into the game, Palace regained possession in Liverpool's defensive third when Sako blocked Moreno's clearance, freeing Zaha in space on the right. Can was in position to cut out his low cross but bafflingly attempted to cushion it to Moreno rather than getting rid, only setting up Bolasie to hammer in from from 10 yards.
Sigh. I thought Liverpool had stopped setting up opposition goals. That's the seventh of the season: twice against West Ham, at Bordeaux, against Norwich, at Everton, at Chelsea, and now today; only Lallana's slight deflection of Azpilicueta's cross before Ramires' header last week was blameless. This was more in the vein of what we'd seen in the dark days earlier this season.
To Liverpool's credit, as they did against Kazan and Chelsea after conceding first, Liverpool quickly asserted control, and eventually found the equalizer. And should have been level far earlier than they were. To the surprise of no one, missed chances – especially from Benteke – would be a dominating theme.
But, as at Chelsea, Liverpool got that the equalizer just before halftime thanks to Philippe Coutinho: winning possession (from a Palace throw) in the opposition half, quickly pushing the ball to Ibe on the opposite flank, Ibe to Clyne to Lallana, back heeled just in front of Benteke but Coutinho in the right place for the loose ball.
Since the beginning of last season, Liverpool scored three Premier League equalizers under Brendan Rodgers: in the 3-1 win at Leicester, 2-2 draw v Arsenal, and 1-1 draw at Chelsea. Three equalizers in 46 matches, having gone behind in 17 of those 46. Klopp's Liverpool's now done that twice in four matches. I'd prefer if Liverpool stopped going behind, but at least we've seen more fight in the side.
Clearly, Liverpool would push on from here and exorcise its demons. And they should have. But Benteke missed two more wonderful chances and was ignored on a soft penalty shout. Liverpool monopolized the ball, but still couldn't create as much as they did before scoring, while Palace threatened exactly once: Zaha storming to the opposite end of the pitch after a Liverpool cross, but Sako only able to put his centered pass into the side netting from a narrow angle.
Liverpool wanted the winner, Liverpool needed the winner, Liverpool were seemingly on pace for the winner. So Liverpool went for it, bringing on Firmino for Can, switching to a 4-1-4-1 formation. You have to admire Klopp's willingness to go for it, to be bold – and Can, responsible for the opener, was clearly tiring – but Liverpool lost control of midfield following the substitution. Palace suddenly had much more space to break: both sides went end-to-end, both sides had chances. Neither had chances as good as the ones Liverpool spurned between Palace's opener and Can's substitution.
And then, the set play breakdown which always seemed inevitable last season and earlier in this, but hasn't for the last few weeks. Palace's sixth corner, the first chance created from a Palace corner: Scott Dann outmuscling Firmino, his first effort save but the rebound scored. Crystal Palace, man. Crystal Palace.
From there, sound and fury signifying nothing, Liverpool limited to Coutinho's left-footed shot from his spot tipped over by Hennessey. Liverpool end the match with 22 shots, 13 more than their opponents, with 16 inside the box and 12 in the Danger Zone. Liverpool end the match with 64% possession, with twice as many completed passes and three times as many completed attacking third passes.
And Liverpool lose.
You can't help but blame fatigue after the trip to Russia, despite assurances of the contrary; Liverpool creating less as the match went on, Can needing to go off, and four defensive errors (three from Can), the most since August 2012 suggest otherwise. You can't help but blame the substitution, even if you understand the logic and admire the motives. You can't help but blame Liverpool's continued profligacy, even if you assume it'll eventually come good; it has to, right? You can't help but blame Crystal Palace, because dammit Palace, stop this.
If Liverpool continue to play like this – wastefulness in front of goal not withstanding, obviously – they'll win a lot more than they lose, as they did in the previous three matches. But there's clearly still a long way to go.
07 November 2015
Liverpool v Crystal Palace 11.08.15
11am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra
Last four head-to-head:
1-3 Palace (h) 05.16.15
2-1 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 02.14.15
1-3 Palace (a) 11.23.14
3-3 (a) 05.05.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Kazan (a); 3-1 Chelsea (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h)
Palace: 0-0 United (h); 1-5 City (a); 0-1 Leicester (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 4; Coutinho 3; Ings, Sturridge 2; Milner 1
Palace: Cabaye 4; Sako, Ward 2; Bolasie, Dann, Delaney, Zaha 1
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Milner Lucas Can
Lallana Coutinho
Benteke
Jürgen Klopp seemed unfazed by questions about fitness in today's press conference, unworried about exhaustion after a strong squad's trip to Kazan. So be it. He's better placed to judge than we are, and a bit cleverer about this football nonsense.
But Liverpool's midweek exertions against Bournemouth in the League Cup two weeks ago were evident in the subsequent match against Southampton. Even if Liverpool are better prepared to cope with multiple matches in a week now than then, under this manager than the last, you still have to expect some backlash. Liverpool pressed less against Southampton, Liverpool attacked slower against Southampton. Part of that, I'm sure, had to do with Southampton's quality. But part seemingly had to be due to a match three days earlier as well. And both of those matches, the midweek and the weekend, were at Anfield; there weren't two 4000km flights involved.
There will be a few fresh players: Coutinho didn't play in Russia, Lallana saw half an hour, Lucas saw 10 minutes, Skrtel just a couple of minutes. But both fullbacks played 90 (because there's no other option), Sakho played 90, Can played 90, Benteke played 90, Firmino played 80. That's a bit concerning.
My only question about the XI is about Milner: whether the struggling stand-in captain again starts. He's been one of the most disappointing players under Klopp, if not the most disappointing. There's a reasonable chance he's dropped, with Liverpool a more orthodox 4-2-3-1, with the third player in the attacking line of three either Firmino (central) or Ibe (on the right). I still suspect both will be left on the bench, used as game-changing substitutes, especially after what you'd assume were draining performances against Kazan, with Milner – in theory – also better able to provide protection against Palace counter-attacks, especially in the 4-3-2-1 formation.
Crystal Palace currently sit 10th, a point behind Liverpool. One month ago, Palace sat fourth, three points ahead of Liverpool; since returning from the last international break, they lost three before last week's 0-0 draw against Manchester United. That draw was Palace's first of the season. This is not a team that finishes 1-1 in most matches. This is a team that finishes 1-0 or 0-1, 3-1 or 1-3.
Gayle, Souare, and Wickham are questionable, the former two supposedly likely to be in the squad, while Lee Chung Yong, Chamakh, and Appiah are out.
If that's the case, Palace's XI will be Hennessey; Souare, Dann, Delaney, Ward; Cabaye, McArthur; Zaha, Puncheon, Bolasie; Gayle. Aside from Souare, the same XI which drew with United last week. If Gayle and Wickham are unavailable, it'll be Bakary Sako or Frazier Campbell or, less likely, Chelsea loanee Bamford up front. If Souare doesn't play, ex-Liverpool player Martin Kelly will start. Jordan Mutch, recently returned from injury, could come into midfield, probably in place of McArthur, or in the attacking line of three, but he's more likely to be used as a substitute as well.
Crystal Palace are Crystal Palace are Crystal Palace. I don't have to recount the horrors of the last two 1-3 losses, or May 2014's 3-3 draw. Like Liverpool's last two matches at Chelsea and Kazan, there will be a bit of deep-sitting defense. Unlike those two sides, Crystal Palace should carry a bit more threat on the counter and from set plays. Bolasie and Zaha, specifically the former, utterly tortured Liverpool last season; Dwight Gayle did similar in the two away matches in May and November 2014. Both Puncheon and Cabaye are outstanding from free kicks, while Dann, Delaney, and Hangeland are excellent headers of the ball.
Early goals haven't fazed Palace, at least in this fixture. Liverpool scored in the second minute at Selhurst Park and the 26th minute at Anfield. Palace equalized in less than 20 minutes both times, then scored two in the final half-hour as the game became stretched. Yes, yes, this is a different Liverpool, but it's harder to come out guns blazing, press, score, and shell against this opposition.
A three-match winning streak (six unbeaten under Klopp, 12 unbeaten under both Klopp and Rodgers) versus a four-match winless streak. The history between these two sides: Liverpool winless in the last three league meetings – two of the worst losses Liverpool suffered under Rodgers (1-6 Stoke obviously notwithstanding), and the final-nail-in-the-title-coffin draw.
But it's a new era. Liverpool are coming off its first European away win in three years, and its first win at Chelsea in four years. It's time to end the era of bad feelings, and to end the disappointing streaks built up over the last two seasons.
Last four head-to-head:
1-3 Palace (h) 05.16.15
2-1 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 02.14.15
1-3 Palace (a) 11.23.14
3-3 (a) 05.05.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Kazan (a); 3-1 Chelsea (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h)
Palace: 0-0 United (h); 1-5 City (a); 0-1 Leicester (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 4; Coutinho 3; Ings, Sturridge 2; Milner 1
Palace: Cabaye 4; Sako, Ward 2; Bolasie, Dann, Delaney, Zaha 1
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Milner Lucas Can
Lallana Coutinho
Benteke
Jürgen Klopp seemed unfazed by questions about fitness in today's press conference, unworried about exhaustion after a strong squad's trip to Kazan. So be it. He's better placed to judge than we are, and a bit cleverer about this football nonsense.
But Liverpool's midweek exertions against Bournemouth in the League Cup two weeks ago were evident in the subsequent match against Southampton. Even if Liverpool are better prepared to cope with multiple matches in a week now than then, under this manager than the last, you still have to expect some backlash. Liverpool pressed less against Southampton, Liverpool attacked slower against Southampton. Part of that, I'm sure, had to do with Southampton's quality. But part seemingly had to be due to a match three days earlier as well. And both of those matches, the midweek and the weekend, were at Anfield; there weren't two 4000km flights involved.
There will be a few fresh players: Coutinho didn't play in Russia, Lallana saw half an hour, Lucas saw 10 minutes, Skrtel just a couple of minutes. But both fullbacks played 90 (because there's no other option), Sakho played 90, Can played 90, Benteke played 90, Firmino played 80. That's a bit concerning.
My only question about the XI is about Milner: whether the struggling stand-in captain again starts. He's been one of the most disappointing players under Klopp, if not the most disappointing. There's a reasonable chance he's dropped, with Liverpool a more orthodox 4-2-3-1, with the third player in the attacking line of three either Firmino (central) or Ibe (on the right). I still suspect both will be left on the bench, used as game-changing substitutes, especially after what you'd assume were draining performances against Kazan, with Milner – in theory – also better able to provide protection against Palace counter-attacks, especially in the 4-3-2-1 formation.
Crystal Palace currently sit 10th, a point behind Liverpool. One month ago, Palace sat fourth, three points ahead of Liverpool; since returning from the last international break, they lost three before last week's 0-0 draw against Manchester United. That draw was Palace's first of the season. This is not a team that finishes 1-1 in most matches. This is a team that finishes 1-0 or 0-1, 3-1 or 1-3.
Gayle, Souare, and Wickham are questionable, the former two supposedly likely to be in the squad, while Lee Chung Yong, Chamakh, and Appiah are out.
If that's the case, Palace's XI will be Hennessey; Souare, Dann, Delaney, Ward; Cabaye, McArthur; Zaha, Puncheon, Bolasie; Gayle. Aside from Souare, the same XI which drew with United last week. If Gayle and Wickham are unavailable, it'll be Bakary Sako or Frazier Campbell or, less likely, Chelsea loanee Bamford up front. If Souare doesn't play, ex-Liverpool player Martin Kelly will start. Jordan Mutch, recently returned from injury, could come into midfield, probably in place of McArthur, or in the attacking line of three, but he's more likely to be used as a substitute as well.
Crystal Palace are Crystal Palace are Crystal Palace. I don't have to recount the horrors of the last two 1-3 losses, or May 2014's 3-3 draw. Like Liverpool's last two matches at Chelsea and Kazan, there will be a bit of deep-sitting defense. Unlike those two sides, Crystal Palace should carry a bit more threat on the counter and from set plays. Bolasie and Zaha, specifically the former, utterly tortured Liverpool last season; Dwight Gayle did similar in the two away matches in May and November 2014. Both Puncheon and Cabaye are outstanding from free kicks, while Dann, Delaney, and Hangeland are excellent headers of the ball.
Early goals haven't fazed Palace, at least in this fixture. Liverpool scored in the second minute at Selhurst Park and the 26th minute at Anfield. Palace equalized in less than 20 minutes both times, then scored two in the final half-hour as the game became stretched. Yes, yes, this is a different Liverpool, but it's harder to come out guns blazing, press, score, and shell against this opposition.
A three-match winning streak (six unbeaten under Klopp, 12 unbeaten under both Klopp and Rodgers) versus a four-match winless streak. The history between these two sides: Liverpool winless in the last three league meetings – two of the worst losses Liverpool suffered under Rodgers (1-6 Stoke obviously notwithstanding), and the final-nail-in-the-title-coffin draw.
But it's a new era. Liverpool are coming off its first European away win in three years, and its first win at Chelsea in four years. It's time to end the era of bad feelings, and to end the disappointing streaks built up over the last two seasons.
06 November 2015
Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Rubin Kazan
Previous Match Infographics: Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
That was Liverpool's first clean sheet in Russia in five attempts (0-2 Zenit, 0-1 Anzhi, 3-1 Spartak Moscow, 2-1 Spartak Vladikavkaz, 0-2 Spartak Moscow), six if you want to count an 0-3 loss at Dinamo Tbilisi – then part of the USSR and Soviet League – in 1979. It was the first time any English side avoided defeat in Kazan, let alone won: Kazan beat Wigan 1-0 in 2013-14, 3-2 v Chelsea in 2012-13, and 1-0 Tottenham in 2010-11. It's the furthest an English side has traveled in European competition and won.
Never mind the narrow scoreline, continued wastefulness, or quality of opposition. Those are some impressive streaks to have broken.
And at the same time, Liverpool hadn't won an away match in Europe since a 1-0 victory at Udinese in December 2012, the final Europa League group stage match that campaign. Since then? 0-2 Zenit, 0-1 Basel, 0-1 Madrid, 2-2 Ludogorets, 0-1 Besiktas, 1-1 Bordeaux. Six matches: two draws, four losses, three goals scored.
That's really all that matters. Liverpool stopped the rot away from home, especially in Europe; Liverpool eked out a fairly comfortable victory, despite the scoreline, in a difficult away match far from home; and Liverpool remain unbeaten since Jürgen Klopp became manager. Anything else is just quibbling.
But I can't help some quibbling. If you guessed it's mainly about Liverpool's shooting, well, great, you've also seen Liverpool in the last two seasons.
Over the two fixtures against Kazan, Liverpool out-shot their opponents 58-12 on aggregate. By a factor of nearly five to one. Just 12 of Liverpool's 58 shots (20.7%) were on-target. And Liverpool out-scored Kazan 2-1.
• Prior to Liverpool's goal: 15 Liverpool shots – eight off-target, seven blocked. Nine of 15 from outside the box.
• After the goal: seven Liverpool shots – five on-target, one off, one blocked. None of Liverpool's shots after the goal came from outside the box.
Once Liverpool got the goal – quick passing from Sakho to Allen to Firmino after Sakho claimed a wayward goal kick, a lovely layoff from Firmino to Ibe, Ibe's pace on the quick transition finally breaching Kazan's back line – Liverpool at least got smarter and more accurate with its shots. That's no small matter.
Milner hit the crossbar, Liverpool should have earned a penalty (Liverpool still haven't earned a penalty this season), Ryzhikov made an outstanding save (albeit on what would have been an own goal) just before halftime. Good chances were few and far between, but Liverpool had chances, away from home in Europe, against a side that wanted nothing more than to defend.
The scoring issues are slowly getting better – Liverpool have at least scored once in every match under Klopp except the first at Tottenham – but Liverpool still have issues scoring. This should surprise no one.
But it is getting better. Liverpool are putting slightly fewer shots on-target, but Liverpool are taking more shots and allowing fewer, with an especially stark difference away from home. There are caveats, because of course. Sample size. The 47 shots against Carlisle, with extra time, boosting the early season totals. Rodgers' away matches were Stoke, Arsenal, United, Bordeaux, and Everton; only Bordeaux were "weak" opposition. Klopp's have been Tottenham, Chelsea, and Kazan – just three matches, and Kazan probably the worst of any side Liverpool have faced away.
Still, those totals look promising, and seeing Liverpool take the game to their opponents, any opponent, away from home, especially in Europe, is a welcome sight.
Liverpool never took more than 15 shots in the 11 European away matches under Brendan Rodgers, that "high" coming in the 0-1 loss at Basel last season. Sure, most of Liverpool's opponents were better than Rubin Kazan, but that murderers' row also includes the likes of Gomel and Hearts (albeit in qualifying rounds, before the full side returned), Young Boys, Udinese, and Ludogorets. Meanwhile, Liverpool's opponents in those 11 matches averaged more than 15 shots per match. That's exacerbated by Real Madrid's 27, but Ludogorets took 18, Besiktas took 21 (albeit with extra time), Zenit took 16, etc.
Despite being at home, Kazan took just seven shots – only two more than at Anfield – and didn't put any of them on target. Liverpool allowed zero shots on-target just four times during Brendan Rodgers' tenure: twice last season (1-0 at Burnley and 0-0 v Bolton, 16 and seven total shots respectively) and twice in 2013-14 (2-0 v Hull and 5-0 at Tottenham, 10 and nine shots respectively).
That's now three consecutive wins – the first time that's happened since February – after three consecutive draws. The last Liverpool manager to go unbeaten in his first six games? Bob Paisley, way back in the 1974-75 season, with seven wins (one, in the Charity Shield, on penalties) and a draw before a loss at Manchester City. Rodgers won his first two, the two legs against Gomel; Dalglish lost his first match at United in the FA Cup; Hodgson was unbeaten through four, European wins against Rabotnicki (twice) and Trabzonspor as well as a draw v Arsenal; Benitez won two and drew one before losing; Houllier lost his first match v Leeds; Evans drew once before losing; Souness won twice before losing; Dalglish won one and drew one to start his first stint; Fagan lost his first match (albeit in the Charity Shield, before a seven-match unbeaten run). It's even more impressive that Klopp's done it mid-season; Dalglish, Houllier, and Evans all struggled for a time after taking over during the campaign.
So, yeah, Liverpool could have shot better. But, after finally winning in Europe and again winning away from home, that's not a massive concern. My biggest concern is the cost. The reason that Rodgers struggled in Europe is that Rodgers rarely played full-strength sides in Europe, protecting players for the more important league matches. I'm curious – and apprehensive – to see what effect yesterday's efforts have on Sunday's match against a dangerous Crystal Palace.
As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
That was Liverpool's first clean sheet in Russia in five attempts (0-2 Zenit, 0-1 Anzhi, 3-1 Spartak Moscow, 2-1 Spartak Vladikavkaz, 0-2 Spartak Moscow), six if you want to count an 0-3 loss at Dinamo Tbilisi – then part of the USSR and Soviet League – in 1979. It was the first time any English side avoided defeat in Kazan, let alone won: Kazan beat Wigan 1-0 in 2013-14, 3-2 v Chelsea in 2012-13, and 1-0 Tottenham in 2010-11. It's the furthest an English side has traveled in European competition and won.
Never mind the narrow scoreline, continued wastefulness, or quality of opposition. Those are some impressive streaks to have broken.
And at the same time, Liverpool hadn't won an away match in Europe since a 1-0 victory at Udinese in December 2012, the final Europa League group stage match that campaign. Since then? 0-2 Zenit, 0-1 Basel, 0-1 Madrid, 2-2 Ludogorets, 0-1 Besiktas, 1-1 Bordeaux. Six matches: two draws, four losses, three goals scored.
That's really all that matters. Liverpool stopped the rot away from home, especially in Europe; Liverpool eked out a fairly comfortable victory, despite the scoreline, in a difficult away match far from home; and Liverpool remain unbeaten since Jürgen Klopp became manager. Anything else is just quibbling.
But I can't help some quibbling. If you guessed it's mainly about Liverpool's shooting, well, great, you've also seen Liverpool in the last two seasons.
Over the two fixtures against Kazan, Liverpool out-shot their opponents 58-12 on aggregate. By a factor of nearly five to one. Just 12 of Liverpool's 58 shots (20.7%) were on-target. And Liverpool out-scored Kazan 2-1.
• Prior to Liverpool's goal: 15 Liverpool shots – eight off-target, seven blocked. Nine of 15 from outside the box.
• After the goal: seven Liverpool shots – five on-target, one off, one blocked. None of Liverpool's shots after the goal came from outside the box.
Once Liverpool got the goal – quick passing from Sakho to Allen to Firmino after Sakho claimed a wayward goal kick, a lovely layoff from Firmino to Ibe, Ibe's pace on the quick transition finally breaching Kazan's back line – Liverpool at least got smarter and more accurate with its shots. That's no small matter.
Milner hit the crossbar, Liverpool should have earned a penalty (Liverpool still haven't earned a penalty this season), Ryzhikov made an outstanding save (albeit on what would have been an own goal) just before halftime. Good chances were few and far between, but Liverpool had chances, away from home in Europe, against a side that wanted nothing more than to defend.
The scoring issues are slowly getting better – Liverpool have at least scored once in every match under Klopp except the first at Tottenham – but Liverpool still have issues scoring. This should surprise no one.
But it is getting better. Liverpool are putting slightly fewer shots on-target, but Liverpool are taking more shots and allowing fewer, with an especially stark difference away from home. There are caveats, because of course. Sample size. The 47 shots against Carlisle, with extra time, boosting the early season totals. Rodgers' away matches were Stoke, Arsenal, United, Bordeaux, and Everton; only Bordeaux were "weak" opposition. Klopp's have been Tottenham, Chelsea, and Kazan – just three matches, and Kazan probably the worst of any side Liverpool have faced away.
Still, those totals look promising, and seeing Liverpool take the game to their opponents, any opponent, away from home, especially in Europe, is a welcome sight.
Liverpool never took more than 15 shots in the 11 European away matches under Brendan Rodgers, that "high" coming in the 0-1 loss at Basel last season. Sure, most of Liverpool's opponents were better than Rubin Kazan, but that murderers' row also includes the likes of Gomel and Hearts (albeit in qualifying rounds, before the full side returned), Young Boys, Udinese, and Ludogorets. Meanwhile, Liverpool's opponents in those 11 matches averaged more than 15 shots per match. That's exacerbated by Real Madrid's 27, but Ludogorets took 18, Besiktas took 21 (albeit with extra time), Zenit took 16, etc.
Despite being at home, Kazan took just seven shots – only two more than at Anfield – and didn't put any of them on target. Liverpool allowed zero shots on-target just four times during Brendan Rodgers' tenure: twice last season (1-0 at Burnley and 0-0 v Bolton, 16 and seven total shots respectively) and twice in 2013-14 (2-0 v Hull and 5-0 at Tottenham, 10 and nine shots respectively).
That's now three consecutive wins – the first time that's happened since February – after three consecutive draws. The last Liverpool manager to go unbeaten in his first six games? Bob Paisley, way back in the 1974-75 season, with seven wins (one, in the Charity Shield, on penalties) and a draw before a loss at Manchester City. Rodgers won his first two, the two legs against Gomel; Dalglish lost his first match at United in the FA Cup; Hodgson was unbeaten through four, European wins against Rabotnicki (twice) and Trabzonspor as well as a draw v Arsenal; Benitez won two and drew one before losing; Houllier lost his first match v Leeds; Evans drew once before losing; Souness won twice before losing; Dalglish won one and drew one to start his first stint; Fagan lost his first match (albeit in the Charity Shield, before a seven-match unbeaten run). It's even more impressive that Klopp's done it mid-season; Dalglish, Houllier, and Evans all struggled for a time after taking over during the campaign.
So, yeah, Liverpool could have shot better. But, after finally winning in Europe and again winning away from home, that's not a massive concern. My biggest concern is the cost. The reason that Rodgers struggled in Europe is that Rodgers rarely played full-strength sides in Europe, protecting players for the more important league matches. I'm curious – and apprehensive – to see what effect yesterday's efforts have on Sunday's match against a dangerous Crystal Palace.
04 November 2015
Liverpool at Rubin Kazan 11.05.15
1pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Chelsea (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-1 Southampton (h)
Kazan: 2-1 Anzhi (a); 1-2 Krasnodar (a); 1-1 Liverpool (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Kazan: 0-0 Bordeaux (h); 1-2 Sion (a); 1-0 Rabotnicki (h), 1-1 Rabotnicki (a); 1-1 Sturm Graz (h), 3-2 Sturm Graz (a)
Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2, Can 1
Kazan: Kanunnikov, Karadeniz 2; Carlos Eduardo, Devic, Kuzmin, Portnyagin 1
Referee: Kevin Blom (NED)
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Milner Allen Can
Lallana Coutinho
Origi
Brendan Rodgers almost never played a full-strength side in away Europe League matches, especially not in the group stage.
We won't see a full-strength XI tomorrow either, but it's still strange to read the "Klopp travels with all available first-team players" stories making the rounds.
It's been almost three years to the day since Liverpool went to Russia to face Anzhi Makhachkala for the fourth match of the group. Sure, Liverpool were top of the group at that point. Liverpool had an arguably weaker – if far less injury-plagued – squad. Liverpool's XI that day was Jones; Wisdom, Coates, Carragher; Flanagan, Henderson, Coady, Shelvey, Downing; Cole; Morgan. The likes of Suarez, Gerrard, Agger, Allen, Skrtel, Sterling, Johnson, Reina, Enrique, and Şahin all stayed on Merseyside.
It's also been exactly a year since Liverpool traveled to Real Madrid and played that XI but the less said about that, the better.
It's a fairly dramatic difference to what we'll see tomorrow.
With a full complement of players, the XI could be anywhere from Mignolet; Clyne, Skrtel, Lovren, Moreno; Brannagan, Allen; Ibe, Firmino, Lallana; Origi to the above guess. And maybe it'll be even stronger than the above guess: Benteke in place of Origi, Sakho instead of Lovren, Lucas instead of Allen. But those three seem the most likely to be protected: the first because he's still recently back from injury, the latter two because they still seem the most in need of rest and/or protection. Maybe it's a mix between the two poles: Firmino and/or Ibe starts in place of Lallana or Coutinho, or the 4-2-3-1 we saw at Chelsea rather than the more usual 4-3-2-1.
Liverpool finally have options in most areas of the pitch. Most. Clyne and Moreno will both start for lack of options; Randall is one of the few involved recently to not travel.
Rubin Kazan are pretty much right where Liverpool left them. They (coincidentally) beat Anzhi, dead bottom of the Russian League, on Sunday, but lost to Krasnodar, one place behind Kazan in the table, the weekend before. They've no new injuries since the last meeting. Kuzmin's suspended after his red card two weeks ago, but Kislyak will return from suspension. I suspect we'll see a very similar XI, probably solely accounting for those two changes: Ryzhikov; Ustinov, Kverkvelia, Kambolov, Nabiullin; Ozdoev, Kislyak; Kanunnikov, Carlos Eduardo, Karadeniz; Devic.
Maybe Georgiev keeps his place, most likely over Karadeniz, making Kazan more a 4-3-3. Maybe Portnyagin reclaims his striker role instead of Devic. Kazan will necessarily be more attacking; they're at home, inaugurating a new arena. They'll at least start with a full complement of players rather than 10 men. But we'll still see a lot of Liverpool in possession trying to break down a deep defense.
Yet to win a match in the Europa League, Liverpool could really do with a victory tomorrow. They're four points behind Sion, but just one ahead of both Bordeaux and Kazan. A draw will keep Liverpool in a holding pattern, likely still second (with struggling Bordeaux away to Sion) but with little room for error. Defeat will see Liverpool drop to third or even fourth, probably needing wins in both of the final two matches to qualify.
Which is why Liverpool are traveling with a full-strength squad, and why we'll probably see a surprisingly strong XI tomorrow. It's a big change from what we're used to in this competition. But the last few weeks have been a big change from what came in the year before.
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Chelsea (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-1 Southampton (h)
Kazan: 2-1 Anzhi (a); 1-2 Krasnodar (a); 1-1 Liverpool (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Kazan: 0-0 Bordeaux (h); 1-2 Sion (a); 1-0 Rabotnicki (h), 1-1 Rabotnicki (a); 1-1 Sturm Graz (h), 3-2 Sturm Graz (a)
Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2, Can 1
Kazan: Kanunnikov, Karadeniz 2; Carlos Eduardo, Devic, Kuzmin, Portnyagin 1
Referee: Kevin Blom (NED)
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Milner Allen Can
Lallana Coutinho
Origi
Brendan Rodgers almost never played a full-strength side in away Europe League matches, especially not in the group stage.
We won't see a full-strength XI tomorrow either, but it's still strange to read the "Klopp travels with all available first-team players" stories making the rounds.
It's been almost three years to the day since Liverpool went to Russia to face Anzhi Makhachkala for the fourth match of the group. Sure, Liverpool were top of the group at that point. Liverpool had an arguably weaker – if far less injury-plagued – squad. Liverpool's XI that day was Jones; Wisdom, Coates, Carragher; Flanagan, Henderson, Coady, Shelvey, Downing; Cole; Morgan. The likes of Suarez, Gerrard, Agger, Allen, Skrtel, Sterling, Johnson, Reina, Enrique, and Şahin all stayed on Merseyside.
It's also been exactly a year since Liverpool traveled to Real Madrid and played that XI but the less said about that, the better.
It's a fairly dramatic difference to what we'll see tomorrow.
With a full complement of players, the XI could be anywhere from Mignolet; Clyne, Skrtel, Lovren, Moreno; Brannagan, Allen; Ibe, Firmino, Lallana; Origi to the above guess. And maybe it'll be even stronger than the above guess: Benteke in place of Origi, Sakho instead of Lovren, Lucas instead of Allen. But those three seem the most likely to be protected: the first because he's still recently back from injury, the latter two because they still seem the most in need of rest and/or protection. Maybe it's a mix between the two poles: Firmino and/or Ibe starts in place of Lallana or Coutinho, or the 4-2-3-1 we saw at Chelsea rather than the more usual 4-3-2-1.
Liverpool finally have options in most areas of the pitch. Most. Clyne and Moreno will both start for lack of options; Randall is one of the few involved recently to not travel.
Rubin Kazan are pretty much right where Liverpool left them. They (coincidentally) beat Anzhi, dead bottom of the Russian League, on Sunday, but lost to Krasnodar, one place behind Kazan in the table, the weekend before. They've no new injuries since the last meeting. Kuzmin's suspended after his red card two weeks ago, but Kislyak will return from suspension. I suspect we'll see a very similar XI, probably solely accounting for those two changes: Ryzhikov; Ustinov, Kverkvelia, Kambolov, Nabiullin; Ozdoev, Kislyak; Kanunnikov, Carlos Eduardo, Karadeniz; Devic.
Maybe Georgiev keeps his place, most likely over Karadeniz, making Kazan more a 4-3-3. Maybe Portnyagin reclaims his striker role instead of Devic. Kazan will necessarily be more attacking; they're at home, inaugurating a new arena. They'll at least start with a full complement of players rather than 10 men. But we'll still see a lot of Liverpool in possession trying to break down a deep defense.
Yet to win a match in the Europa League, Liverpool could really do with a victory tomorrow. They're four points behind Sion, but just one ahead of both Bordeaux and Kazan. A draw will keep Liverpool in a holding pattern, likely still second (with struggling Bordeaux away to Sion) but with little room for error. Defeat will see Liverpool drop to third or even fourth, probably needing wins in both of the final two matches to qualify.
Which is why Liverpool are traveling with a full-strength squad, and why we'll probably see a surprisingly strong XI tomorrow. It's a big change from what we're used to in this competition. But the last few weeks have been a big change from what came in the year before.
02 November 2015
Visualized: Liverpool 3-1 Chelsea
Previous Match Infographics: Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Aside from the first 10 minutes, Liverpool's game plan worked reasonably well. Which is no small feat against the defending league champions, no matter their form, at a ground where Liverpool hadn't won since November 2011. But what's more impressive is that Liverpool's game plan worked – and Liverpool stuck to it – despite those opening 10 minutes and the early goal conceded: a well-crafted goal but one which still had the penultimate touch off a Liverpool player before ending up in the net.
Since the beginning of last season, Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool conceded the opening goal in the first 15 minutes eight times. They came back to win just once – in the FA Cup at Crystal Palace – and drew just twice: 2-2 against Ludogorets and 1-1 at already-won-the-league Chelsea. Otherwise? 0-1 Villa, 1-3 West Ham, 0-3 United, 1-2 United, and 0-3 West Ham. If you only count league matches, that's one draw and five losses. That's not good. That, among many other reasons, is a big part of why Brendan Rodgers was fired.
Chelsea, even in this form, can be a better version of those Villa and West Ham sides: happy to sit deep and prevent you from getting back into the game, while still dangerous on the counter and from set plays. Mourinho's teams are often the worst possible opponents when given an early lead, while Liverpool have been terrible at coming back from an early deficit. Or any deficit for that matter.
But Liverpool, threatened just once after the goal – a free kick which ended with an offside flag and Mikel missing the chance anyway – slowly reasserted themselves, working diligently before a breakthrough just prior to halftime. And Chelsea struggled to create on the counter, Chelsea failed to take a shot or create a chance from a set play, limited to just one corner but with nine free kicks in Liverpool's half.
Clyne led Liverpool with six successful tackles (seven attempted), while Lucas and Moreno had five (of six), and Firmino had four (of five). The two fullbacks, Liverpool's (usually) deepest midfielder, and the "striker" who led the press from the front, with the majority of those tackles out on the flanks. The only two Liverpool outfield starters to not make a single tackle? Skrtel and Sakho, who had surprisingly comfortable games against Diego Costa et al (a kick to the midseason not withstanding, of course).
That Oscar and Willian – at least until Kenedy replaced Hazard – were Chelsea's wingers didn't help matters. Two players who'd prefer to play as the central attacking midfielder; neither comfortable crossing nor really dribbling. Chelsea only completed four of 11 dribbles in Liverpool's half, only one near Liverpool's goal or leading to a shot: Kenedy in the 79th minute. Chelsea's attacking line of three created just one chance: Willian, in the 61st minute, leading to a Ramires shot that was swiftly blocked. Oscar took three shots, but two were in the final five minutes, from outside the box and blocked, the other that dangerous shot from 45 yards out which Mignolet palmed away just before Liverpool took the lead.
As in the previous two league matches, Liverpool's press did well to force the ball into wide areas, where – the goal aside, obviously – Liverpool did well to nullify potential Chelsea attacks. Liverpool worked hard, Liverpool set the tenor and tempo, Liverpool got the goals (if with a bit of fortune). But the story is as much Chelsea's failures as Liverpool's successes.
Still, at Chelsea, Liverpool took twice as many shots, created three times as many chances, and dominated possession until the second goal before settling for a defensive shell and counter-attack – where they got a third and nearly scored two others.
Liverpool traveled to Chelsea four times under Brendan Rodgers: three league matches and one League Cup semifinal, drawing twice and losing twice.
Caveats: yes, one of those matches didn't count for points, and that match also went to extra time. But the overall point remains: these matches were all close, but Chelsea ground out the better results. Not this time. It's a new day, yes it is.
There's a reason the cliché is that goals change games. Well, for the most part. Liverpool's goal before halftime completely changed what each side would need to do in the second half, Liverpool's second goal allowed Liverpool to coast through the final 15 minutes. Both were exceptionally well-taken goals, in the build-up and the finish, but both had an element of fortune: extra added time in the first half led to the last-second equalizer, a deflection took the second past Begovic.
But goals don't always change games. Liverpool didn't let Chelsea's, and that's the biggest takeaway from Saturday's match. Liverpool kept to the plan, kept working, and eventually got the result: a much-needed result that went against how these matches played out over the last few years. Liverpool pressed and ran Chelsea early, Coutinho's efforts finally found the net, Benteke's presence completely altered how Chelsea had to defend. It was good. There has been a dearth of good over the last year or so.
Despite the two-goal win, Liverpool's first away from Anfield since February 22, there are still small margins. Those deflections, Mignolet just getting a hand to Oscar's long-range shot, Lucas staying on the pitch. Unsurprisingly.
But that shouldn't detract from the fact that Liverpool were cohesive, coherent, and stuck to its plan; that Liverpool were the more resilient side; that Liverpool came back to win on the road; that Liverpool won at all.
That's tangible progress – and we've seen tangible progress in each match since the managerial change. That's exactly what Liverpool needed to get its first league win under Jürgen Klopp.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Aside from the first 10 minutes, Liverpool's game plan worked reasonably well. Which is no small feat against the defending league champions, no matter their form, at a ground where Liverpool hadn't won since November 2011. But what's more impressive is that Liverpool's game plan worked – and Liverpool stuck to it – despite those opening 10 minutes and the early goal conceded: a well-crafted goal but one which still had the penultimate touch off a Liverpool player before ending up in the net.
Since the beginning of last season, Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool conceded the opening goal in the first 15 minutes eight times. They came back to win just once – in the FA Cup at Crystal Palace – and drew just twice: 2-2 against Ludogorets and 1-1 at already-won-the-league Chelsea. Otherwise? 0-1 Villa, 1-3 West Ham, 0-3 United, 1-2 United, and 0-3 West Ham. If you only count league matches, that's one draw and five losses. That's not good. That, among many other reasons, is a big part of why Brendan Rodgers was fired.
Chelsea, even in this form, can be a better version of those Villa and West Ham sides: happy to sit deep and prevent you from getting back into the game, while still dangerous on the counter and from set plays. Mourinho's teams are often the worst possible opponents when given an early lead, while Liverpool have been terrible at coming back from an early deficit. Or any deficit for that matter.
But Liverpool, threatened just once after the goal – a free kick which ended with an offside flag and Mikel missing the chance anyway – slowly reasserted themselves, working diligently before a breakthrough just prior to halftime. And Chelsea struggled to create on the counter, Chelsea failed to take a shot or create a chance from a set play, limited to just one corner but with nine free kicks in Liverpool's half.
Clyne led Liverpool with six successful tackles (seven attempted), while Lucas and Moreno had five (of six), and Firmino had four (of five). The two fullbacks, Liverpool's (usually) deepest midfielder, and the "striker" who led the press from the front, with the majority of those tackles out on the flanks. The only two Liverpool outfield starters to not make a single tackle? Skrtel and Sakho, who had surprisingly comfortable games against Diego Costa et al (a kick to the midseason not withstanding, of course).
That Oscar and Willian – at least until Kenedy replaced Hazard – were Chelsea's wingers didn't help matters. Two players who'd prefer to play as the central attacking midfielder; neither comfortable crossing nor really dribbling. Chelsea only completed four of 11 dribbles in Liverpool's half, only one near Liverpool's goal or leading to a shot: Kenedy in the 79th minute. Chelsea's attacking line of three created just one chance: Willian, in the 61st minute, leading to a Ramires shot that was swiftly blocked. Oscar took three shots, but two were in the final five minutes, from outside the box and blocked, the other that dangerous shot from 45 yards out which Mignolet palmed away just before Liverpool took the lead.
As in the previous two league matches, Liverpool's press did well to force the ball into wide areas, where – the goal aside, obviously – Liverpool did well to nullify potential Chelsea attacks. Liverpool worked hard, Liverpool set the tenor and tempo, Liverpool got the goals (if with a bit of fortune). But the story is as much Chelsea's failures as Liverpool's successes.
Still, at Chelsea, Liverpool took twice as many shots, created three times as many chances, and dominated possession until the second goal before settling for a defensive shell and counter-attack – where they got a third and nearly scored two others.
Liverpool traveled to Chelsea four times under Brendan Rodgers: three league matches and one League Cup semifinal, drawing twice and losing twice.
Caveats: yes, one of those matches didn't count for points, and that match also went to extra time. But the overall point remains: these matches were all close, but Chelsea ground out the better results. Not this time. It's a new day, yes it is.
There's a reason the cliché is that goals change games. Well, for the most part. Liverpool's goal before halftime completely changed what each side would need to do in the second half, Liverpool's second goal allowed Liverpool to coast through the final 15 minutes. Both were exceptionally well-taken goals, in the build-up and the finish, but both had an element of fortune: extra added time in the first half led to the last-second equalizer, a deflection took the second past Begovic.
But goals don't always change games. Liverpool didn't let Chelsea's, and that's the biggest takeaway from Saturday's match. Liverpool kept to the plan, kept working, and eventually got the result: a much-needed result that went against how these matches played out over the last few years. Liverpool pressed and ran Chelsea early, Coutinho's efforts finally found the net, Benteke's presence completely altered how Chelsea had to defend. It was good. There has been a dearth of good over the last year or so.
Despite the two-goal win, Liverpool's first away from Anfield since February 22, there are still small margins. Those deflections, Mignolet just getting a hand to Oscar's long-range shot, Lucas staying on the pitch. Unsurprisingly.
But that shouldn't detract from the fact that Liverpool were cohesive, coherent, and stuck to its plan; that Liverpool were the more resilient side; that Liverpool came back to win on the road; that Liverpool won at all.
That's tangible progress – and we've seen tangible progress in each match since the managerial change. That's exactly what Liverpool needed to get its first league win under Jürgen Klopp.
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