24 July 2013

Liverpool 2-0 Melbourne Victory

Goals:
Gerrard 32'
Aspas 90+3'

Another friendly, another formation:
Today's starting XI featured exactly zero new signings – Liverpool could have (but probably shouldn't have) deployed this line-up last season – but was very much an orthodox 4-3-3. Borini, Sterling, and Ibe were all forwards, with the "wingers" often closer to goal than the "striker." Henderson, Allen, and Gerrard were a rotating midfield trio, with Henderson usually closer to Borini, but all with complete license to get forward at will. That's now 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, and 4-4-1-1 that we've seen through three matches, with different midfield setups in each as well. Preseason is the time to experiment, after all.

More and more minutes:
There's also a clearly determined fitness program going on, one even idiotic laymen like me can gauge. Liverpool's starters played 45 minutes in the first friendly, an hour or so in the second friendly, and 73 minutes today. It seems designed to ensure everyone's in peak condition once the real season starts; Liverpool certainly can't afford to start in the same form as last season. And in the previous preseason, Liverpool changed almost the entire team (if not the entire team) at halftime in all four fixtures. Yes, Liverpool had early Europa League qualifiers to deal with, and were coming off both the Euros and Olympics, but it's still heartening to see the starters pushed this hard this early.

1st half standouts:
Allen, Ibe, Wisdom, and Skrtel. And, unsurprisingly, Gerrard.

Allen was excellent in a shuttling role: setting the tempo, linking with Gerrard, and reclaiming possession, demonstrating intelligent positioning both with and without the ball. The goal was a thing of beauty: cleverly dummied by the captain, knowing Allen would make the run, followed by a trademark Gerrard charge into the box, with Allen perfectly finding his run. Ibe, like Sterling, was an flat-track speed racer, confidently looking to burst past the fullback and set up someone in the box. Both Wisdom and Skrtel bullied their opposing numbers, while the former also strode into midfield to cut off a potential attack multiple times and the latter showed an excellent range of passing from the back. Wisdom's obviously jumped Coates on Rodgers' depth chart, and – fair warning: I'm speculating – his improvement may well be a big reason why Liverpool's gone quite on the center-back front since signing Kolo Toure.

But still too blunt, again:
As against Indonesia, Liverpool looked wholly lacking in front of goal at times. Last Saturday, the conditions and terrible pitch were at least some consolation. Today, most of that bluntness seemed down to Liverpool's personnel.

Henderson is a darling around many corners of the internet (and rightfully so), but he's nowhere near able to replicate Coutinho's flair in the final third. Borini, is well, out of sorts, to put it nicely. So it was little surprise to see Liverpool limited to one flowing move (set up and scored by the "deeper" midfielders, I'll remind) and blasts from distance from Sterling, Gerrard, and Allen. And while neither Borini nor Henderson will probably be first-choice attackers once the real football starts, it's still a bit worrisome. Especially given the continuing uncertainty surrounding one Luis Suarez.

We're all body language experts:
'Suarez looks unhappy!' 'He's not trying!' You know what? He's still a Liverpool player. He still set up a goal, doing typical Suarez things along the byline. He just re-joined the team a couple of days ago. And it's still July. There's nothing any of us can do to decide his future sooner. Let's all wait until something happens one way or the other before jumping off the cliff.

Did he look unhappy? Yeah, kinda. Does he frequently look unhappy, frustrated and snarling his way around the pitch? Yeah, kinda. Does it makes sense to play him for 20 minutes in a friendly, not long after flying halfway around the world, with his future still undecided and uncertain? Not especially. It admittedly seems a statement of hopeful intent more than anything else. Nonetheless, it's safe to assume Rodgers knows more about his situation than we do.

Incidentally, it was interesting to see how he and Aspas lined up after coming on with 20 minutes to play. It was basically the reverse of how Suarez and Sturridge paired in certain matches last season, something of a 4-4-1-1, with Suarez as the spearhead and Aspas lurking in and around behind him. I find it hard to believe that'll be the case next season. If, of course, Suarez stays.

We all thought that Aspas was signed to "replace" Downing, but he's been used as a central striker in all three preseason matches so far, also on the pitch at the same time as Downing in all three.

Agger's the new vice-captain:
This is the most important thing we learned today. Lucas took the arm-band from Gerrard when he came on for the captain. But 10 minutes later, Lucas handed the armband over to Agger when the latter came up during the bulk of the substitutions. This information deserves all the BREAKING NEWS sirens, klaxons, and flashing lights. Go Team Agger.

20 July 2013

Liverpool 2-0 Indonesian XI

Goals:
Coutinho 10'
Sterling 87'

Arsenal scored seven against this opposition! Pitchforks! Torches! The sky is falling!

Yawn. Whatever.

Preseason is preseason is preseason is preseason. Especially a preseason match on a shit pitch in 80º heat and nearly 95% humidity.

2011-12 versus 2012-13:
This was Liverpool's starting XI in the second friendly last season. Gulasci; McLaughlin, Skrtel, Carragher, Enrique; Shelvey, Spearing, Aquilani; Sterling, Eccelston, Cole. A bit different than the one we saw today. Sure, Liverpool were missing even more than usual last year because of both the Euros and Olympics, but the difference is still night and day. This is a much deeper and much stronger squad, and Brendan Rodgers is taking preseason very seriously.

Gerrard ahead of Lucas:
Last season, whenever Gerrard and Lucas played together, both were "sitting" midfielders. Sure, Gerrard bombed forward on occasion, while it was Lucas' primary job to mop up in front of the back four, but both were deep-lying midfielders. In contrast, Gerrard was definitely ahead of Lucas today, nearly on the same line as Luis Alberto, getting forward more consistently while Lucas was an out-and-out defensive shield.

Incidentally, Gerrard played like a man who's missed the last few months due to surgery, his passing rusty almost beyond belief, but kicking out those jams is truly is the point of preseason.

Luis Alberto and Philippe Coutinho:
It was somewhat surprising to see Luis Alberto in the "number 10" role with Liverpool's actual #10, Philippe Coutinho, playing mostly on the left. Sure, they switched positions at times, although less frequently than I expected. Sure, Coutinho still spent a lot of time on the ball, drifting infield whenever it suited him. He played there in more than a few appearances last season, and that positioning makes a certain amount of sense given Liverpool's dogged, if unsuccessful, pursuit of Henrikh of House Mkhitaryan. And Luis Alberto played on the left, as the #10, and as a false nine for Barca B last season. Nonetheless, Coutinho was also much less influential, despite his goal, than he was in the first half against Preston. Make of that what you will.

Goals make me happy:
Both of Liverpool's goals came from situations that fill my heart with joy. The first was admittedly a bit lucky, but – as in winning the penalty last week – came because Coutinho refused to give up after conceding possession, pressing an Indonesian into a mistake, profiting from a kind bounce of the ball, and bursting through to slot under the keeper. I expected more pressing in the attacking third last season from Liverpool. From the first two preseason matches, it looks like we'll see a lot more of it this season.

The second was a blistering – and I mean blistering – counter-attack from an Indonesia corner. Wisdom's fine clearance, Ibe's speed taking him past two defenders followed by a throughball for Assaidi, unselfishly handed off to Sterling for an easy tap in. Liverpool were often potent, at least in the second half of last season, when playing direct football, and that was direct, breakneck football. Rodgers clearly prioritizes speed from his attackers, and both Ibe and Sterling have speed to burn. I expect big things from Liverpool's counter-attack next season; last season showed how other teams can profit from Liverpool's failed set plays or conceding possession in the attacking third. Liverpool need to do that to other teams, and have the ability to do so.

But still blunt up front:
But despite those two encouraging goals, I'd hoped to see more for Liverpool's strikers. Both Borini and Aspas suffered from the rutted pitch more than most, with bobbles of the ball spoiling outstanding chances for both. But neither impressed up front; at the least, neither showed the ruthlessness needed from the spearhead. Both linked up with others decently well, Aspas more than Borini, but both assuredly need to improve that ruthlessness in front of goal. That, or Sturridge needs to get fit very soon.

Go away, woodwork:
It is really never ending. The frame of the goal has been one of Liverpool's biggest enemies for two full years now. And Liverpool's woes with the woodwork look to continue apace, with both Luis Alberto and Sterling cannoning strikes off the crossbar. Please stop. It's not funny anymore. Get it out of your systems now.

14 July 2013

Liverpool 4-0 Preston

Goals:
Coutinho 14' (pen)
Ibe 36'
Sterling 64'
Aspas 75'

We're back!

And it's almost a full day after the fact by now, but here are a few notes on facets I found interesting. Remember the usual caveats that it's preseason, can't always divine omens from these entrails, etc.

Formation/first half v second half:
The formations may have been different in the first and second halves – more a 4-2-3-1 in the first, a 4-3-3/4-1-4-1 in the second – but the style remained the same. Both XIs featured excellent ball retention, controlled the tenor and tempo of the match, varied well between long and short passes, and pressed from the front.

Aside from a few experiments with three defenders and a couple of matches with both Suarez and Sturridge up top, Liverpool were rigidly 4-2-3-1 for almost all of last season. And even in those different formations, Liverpool's midfield shape usually remained the same: two holding midfielders with an attacker further forward, whether Coutinho, Henderson, Shelvey, Suarez, etc. Almost every time. Seeing a different midfield shape – Lucas as the sole holding midfielder and two slight attacking midfielders in Luis Alberto and Pacheco – but the same control and same "Rodgers style" was quite encouraging.

Coutinho:
The hub, the epicenter, the focal point, the polestar. Coutinho was absolutely central to everything in the attacking third – highlighted during Liverpool's first goal: winning the ball back then winning a penalty, then subsequently scoring said penalty as casually as possible – and it seems clear that most players' first thought was "where is Coutinho can I pass it to Coutinho" when building the attack. Which is both a very promising thing and a slightly worrying thing.

We've seen before *cough Suarez cough* that Liverpool can suffer when relying on a single player for its attack, but I don't necessarily think that was or will be the case here. It's more that Rodgers sees the Brazilian as an extremely important piece, and is more than happy to assemble his side around him, despite what Liverpool's pursuit of Mkhitaryan implies. That should do wonders for Coutinho's confidence and form, especially after his travails and set-backs at Inter.

Spearing at full-back:
Made very little sense. Yes, the fitness staff didn't seem comfortable playing Kelly for more than a few minutes. Without Coates, Wisdom was needed at center-back. Without Enrique, Flanagan was needed at left-back. It was still strange to see Liverpool's very own hobbit bombing up and down the touchline in the first half.

He didn't do badly, by any stretch, and set up a couple of good chances for Borini. But he's not a full-back: not at his height and not considering his usual troubles with positioning. And that he was played out of position in the first friendly of the season, with Liverpool slightly lacking bodies in central midfield anyway, bodes poorly for his Liverpool future.

The New Boys:
Both Mignolet and Toure had next to nothing to do; the Belgian made one good save on a shot from distance and commanded his box well the few times Preston managed to get the ball in the attacking third, while Toure won all of his few duels and had a crucial header to clear Humphrey's dangerous cross early on. And that was about it.

Luis Alberto and Aspas, on the other hand, were quite involved, and both played quite well. Alberto seemed slightly more restrained in this central role, but his head was always up, his ball control brilliant, his passing crisp and clever. He oozed potential. And Aspas was as advertised, constant running from a central position, capped off with a bamboozling goal from the top of the box that completely fooled Preston's keeper. More of both of those, please.

The Kids Are Still Alright:
That Liverpool's two other goals came from Ibe and Sterling might be the most heartening facet, outside of the obvious fascination with Liverpool's new toys: Ibe's was a typical cut-inside, roll it past the keeper strike, while Sterling beat the offside trap then rounded the keeper. The competition between those two teenagers is going to be amazing, and the two are going to keep pushing each other to make the squad/starting XI. Each should be excellent for the other's development, neither one will be able to take a day/week/match off with the other breathing down his neck. Survival of the fittest. And they both look pretty fit.

Welcome back, football. We missed you.

11 July 2013

Luis Suarez and Goals Scored by a Club's Top Scorer

The transfer furor surrounding Luis Suarez hasn't even come close to a deafening crescendo, but it's already infuriating.

An awful lot of Liverpool fans seem almost resigned to his exit. At the least, it doesn't seem to carrying the wrist-slitting woe-is-me torpor which followed Torres' ignominious departure.

But make no mistake. No matter how he may have statistically over-performed in front of goal (especially compared to his 2011-12 totals), how much controversy permanently surrounds the player, or how less reliant Liverpool were on his goals as the season went on, his departure would leave a gaping hole in Liverpool's attack.

There have been just three seasons where Liverpool were more reliant on a single goalscorer since the Premier League's inception 21 seasons ago.





Robbie Fowler's second and third seasons for the club – 1994-95 and 1995-96, also Roy Evans' first two full seasons as manager – are the far-and-away leaders, when God scored 28 and 25 goals in consecutive campaigns. Torres' debut season is third, tallying 24 of Liverpool's 67 goals, 30% of the league goals he scored in his three and a half seasons with the club.

But whether or not Liverpool were reliant on a single goalscorer seemingly had little impact on Liverpool's final league place. Liverpool spread the goals outstandingly when finishing second in 2008-09, but Liverpool also finished in the Champions League places when Fowler and Torres monopolized the scoring.

The average percentage of goals scored by Liverpool's top scorer over those 21 seasons was 26.63%. Liverpool's average league position in the nine seasons above that mark was 4.44. It was 5.25 in the 12 seasons below that mark. Slightly better when there was a dominant scorer, but not meaningfully so.

It was, however, amusing to see that the four Premiership seasons where Liverpool were least reliant on a single goalscorer were four of Rafa Benitez's first five seasons, with Torres' debut season the exception. Because of course they were.

Which segues nicely into an update on this graphic from much earlier in the season, looking at how reliant each Premier League club was on a single scorer.



And the subsequent chart…



Unsurprisingly, it's vastly different to the version made after just 11 league matches. Only Liverpool, third-most reliant on one player, and Arsenal, the least reliant on one player, are in the same positions.

Just Aston Villa and Swansea got a larger proportion of goals from their top scorer than Liverpool, Benteke and Michu respectively.

The league-wide average for goals scored by the club's top scorer was 26.94% (unsurprisingly quite similar to Liverpool's average over the 21 Premiership seasons). 10 clubs were above that, 10 were below, and the average league position of the 10 clubs both above and below that mark was just about 10th.

To be fair, yes, Liverpool became much less reliant on Suarez as the season went on – more specifically, after Sturridge and Coutinho signed. Only two of his 23 league goals came in the final 10 matches, the last four of which he sat out due to suspension. Liverpool still scored 18 times during those ten matches, an average of 1.8 per game, which was just slightly less than the season-long 1.87 goals per league game average. Liverpool's record was five wins, four draws, and one loss, an average of 1.9 points per game, vastly better than the season-long 1.61 points per game average.

On March 2, Suarez was responsible for 39.6% of Liverpool's league goals. By the end of the season, that number had dropped to 32.4%. During the first half of the season, especially during the first 12 games, Suarez was single-handedly keeping Liverpool afloat in attack; he scored 64.7% of Liverpool's goals through those first 12 matches. Where, I hesitate to remind, Liverpool averaged just 1.25 points per game and were sat in the bottom half of the table.

As Liverpool grew as a team and added more key attackers, Liverpool did a much better job spreading the wealth. In those last ten league matches, Sturridge scored six; Henderson three; Coutinho, Gerrard, and Suarez two; and Agger, Borini, and Downing once. Which bodes well for next season, whether or not Luis Suarez remains with the club.

Still, let's not pretend that Suarez's exit would be anything other than a monumental change.

25 June 2013

On Simon Mignolet

The official site just posted confirmation of Simon Mignolet's move to Liverpool, the club's fourth summer signing after Kolo Toure, Luis Alberto, and Iago Aspas. And it's only June 25. Sometimes, I don't recognize this Liverpool anymore.

So what kind of goalkeeper is Liverpool getting?




Wow, what an upgrade! Liverpool are going from a keeper who saved just 42 shots on target last season, 55% of the shots on target he faced, to a keeper who saved 124 shots, slightly less than 70% of the opposition shots on target. Mignolet averaged 3.26 saves per match, Reina averaged 1.35.

And here are the locations, via Squawka, of both saves made and goals conceded.




Mignolet allowed more in the center of the goal and the top right corner but saved loads more low shots to the bottom corners, while Reina allowed notably more low to his right.

Okay. Of course, it's not as clear cut as shots saved and goals conceded totals.

Reina, in seven fewer league appearances, faced fewer than half the amount of shots on target as Mignolet, which makes fairly clear the difference in playing for Liverpool versus playing for Sunderland. The most shots on target Mignolet faced in a single match was 11, against Tottenham on the last day, but he also saw 10 from Liverpool and Villa, eight from Arsenal, and seven from City and Wigan. The most Reina saw in a single match was five: from Spurs (a), Stoke (a), and Wigan (a). Five shots on target would have been a fairly easy day for Mignolet last season. If your defense is allowing that many more shots, especially shots from distance, you're bound to come up with a few more saves.

And almost as important as save percentage is the goalkeeper's distribution. Reina's passing from the back has been one of his biggest assets during his Liverpool tenure, and it's especially crucial in Brendan Rodgers' system, where every defensive player needs to be comfortable with the ball at his feet.

Mignolet completed just 41.4% of his passes last season; 746 attempted, 306 successful. Reina completed 70.8%; 692 attempted, 490 successful. The average length of a Mignolet pass was 51 meters; Reina's average was 36 meters. Sure, much of that may have to do with both Martin O'Neill and Paolo di Canio's managerial preferences – especially's O'Neill love of hoofing and hoping – but in naming him player of the season, the incomparable Sunderland blog Roker Report notably mentioned Mignolet's need to improve his distribution. That's no small matter at Liverpool.

In addition to his outstanding save percentage, Mignolet also had a higher success rate claiming crosses and punching clear than Reina, although both were well above the league average.

The Belgian was the best keeper in the league last season according to WhoScored's player rating, but the fourth highest-rated by Squawka, behind Cech, Begovic, and Pepe Reina, mainly due to his horrific possession score.

Despite Liverpool's claims to the contrary, you'd have to assume this signals the end for Pepe Reina, whether he leaves this summer or next summer. We've seen quotes to the contrary from both Reina and Rodgers, but you rarely buy a £9m keeper just for "competition" (*ignores references to Chris Kirkland*).

And Pepe Reina is both one of Liverpool's longest serving players and biggest personalities in the dressing room. His exit in the same summer as Jamie Carragher's retirement would leave a massive, gaping hole in the squad. Only Gerrard and Brad Jones will be 30 years or older, only Gerrard has been at the club longer than Reina. Only Gerrard, Agger, Lucas, and Skrtel would have made their debuts prior to the 2009-10 season, when Liverpool began this Hicks & Gillet-induced decline they've yet to recover from. That's a starling lack of institutional memory.

Still, I guess change has to happen sometime.

Both Mignolet and Reina are excellent keepers, despite Reina's drop in form last season (and then subsequent improvement as the season went on). But Pepe Reina is 30 years old, soon to be 31, and rumored to be on wages of approximately £100k a week. Simon Mignolet is six years younger, and will probably earn about half of Reina's wages, at most. Which is around £2.5m-per-year difference.

That, coupled with Reina's longing glances toward Barcelona, whether this summer or next summer, is pretty much the alpha and omega of this deal. For a change, Liverpool are proactive in dealing with a key player's possible exit. A welcome change. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a better young keeper in the Premier League who's available for less money.

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If it's not clear from the multiple links, this would have been vastly more difficult without Squawka, who are, hands down, one of the best resources for football analysis.

19 June 2013

LFC 2013-14 Fixture List

Like last year, a quick knock-up of Liverpool's schedule, looking at the fixture list by last season's league place rather than the team name.



• I'm sure you remember that Liverpool played three teams in the previous season's top four in the first five matches to begin Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool tenure. It went, um, poorly. This season, the only match against a side that finished ahead of Liverpool until November 2nd is a home match against Manchester United, who'll ideally still be struggling to come to terms with its new manager. In Liverpool's first 10 matches, they'll play just four sides who finished in the top 10 last season. Given the rumored changes to Liverpool's preferred XI, both in defense and attack (as well as Suarez's suspension if he stays), Rodgers will have the time to make adjustments before playing the league's toughest opponents, something the vagaries of last season's schedule wholly denied him.

• December looks beastly, having to travel to both Manchester City and Chelsea during the festive season, as well as to Tottenham on December 14th. But December's always beastly, no matter the opposition. Those are the quirks of the jam-packed fixture list over those few weeks. Anyone can beat anyone. Last season, Liverpool managed to lose to both Stoke and Aston Villa during this span (teams which finished 13th and 15th, in case you forgot). The season before, Liverpool drew with both nearly-relegated Wigan and utterly-relegated Blackburn. But it's not just Liverpool; last season, City lost to Sunderland on Boxing Day, while Chelsea lost to QPR less than a week later. Strange things happen when sides are forced to play match after match after match, and neither Chelsea nor City will fancy these fixtures either.

• The Merseyside derbies take place on November 23 and January 28. The matches before those two derbies? A home match against Fulham and a home match against Aston Villa.

• Like last season, Liverpool have a fairly tepid run-in. Sure, there are matches against both City and Chelsea in April, but both are at Anfield. Otherwise, the other four matches in the final two months see Liverpool face last season's 10th-placed side, 11th-placed side, and the Championship playoff winners before finishing at home against Newcastle. Not only do Liverpool began the campaign at Anfield, but they'll finish it at Anfield as well.

Sure, knowing Liverpool and knowing precedent, we'll probably feel differently after the season's underway. But It's almost as if the fixture computers favored Liverpool this season. I'm sure it's just coincidence that happened as soon as Alex Ferguson retired.

13 June 2013

On Iago Aspas

Finally announced after "bureaucratic issues" (read: let's pay some more agents!) were settled, Celta Vigo's Iago Aspas is now a Liverpool player. Well, almost. There's still some "documentation to be completed." Modern football!

Anyway.



Iago Aspas took 102 shots in total in 34 league appearances last season (all starts), an average of three per match. The majority of his shots are from the right side of the pitch, cutting inside and shooting with his left foot – supposedly the position he'll play at Liverpool even though he was very much a central striker with Celta last season (via WhoScored). 11 of his 12 league goals were left-footed strikes, the 12th a header.

The shots breakdown:

Goal: 12 (11.8%)
On Target: 49 (48.0%)
Off Target: 37 (36.3%)
Blocked: 16 (15.7%)

6-yard box: 2 (2.0%)
18-yard box: 53 (52.0%)
Outside the box: 47 (46.0%)

Aspas failed to take a shot in just three of his 34 league matches. But that's no surprise given how important he was to Celta Vigo's attack; Luis Suarez took at least two shots in all of his 33 league appearances last season.

Admittedly, that 46% of Aspas' shots came from outside the box terrifies me. Yes, slightly more than a third of those shots were on target, which isn't a terrible percentage, but only one resulted in a goal. 43% of Liverpool's league shots were taken outside the box last season, and 23% of those shots from outside the box were on-target. Just 12 resulted in goals – 17% of Liverpool's total goals. Liverpool already take too many shots from distance given how often they profit from it, but at least Aspas should improve Liverpool's accuracy from distance.

That just two of Aspas' 102 shots came from inside the six-yard box also stands out. His first didn't come until his 19th match of the campaign, his 67th shot of the season. Yes, he's not a goal poacher; the majority of his chances were self-created and/or came from bursts into the penalty area, but that's still a surprisingly low number. And, of course, both were off-target.

As Aspas is rumored to be taking Downing's position in the starting XI, here's a quick comparison of a handful of statistics in league play last season. The stats for Downing start with the 4-0 win against Fulham on December 22, as that's when he stopped playing at left back and began starting regularly.



Positionally, we're somewhat comparing apples to oranges since Aspas played centrally in all 34 appearances last season. And Aspas was Celta Vigo's creative hub, scoring just under a third of its goals, creating just over a fifth of all chances. No player was involved in more of his side's goal in La Liga last season (via RAWK). Downing was vastly improved compared to 2010-11, and was a key part in Liverpool's improvement over the second half of the season, but nowhere near as crucial to Liverpool as Aspas was to Celta Vigo.

Aspas' minutes per goal rate is actually quite similar to Dirk Kuyt at his best when the Dutchman played on the right for Liverpool, and that, even more than Downing, might be the better comparison. Especially since Kuyt was very much a striker at Feyenoord before joining Liverpool and was just a month older than Aspas is now when he signed for Liverpool in 2006. Kuyt scored buckets more for Feyenoord, but Feyenoord was also a much better team than Celta Vigo and the Eredivise is a quite different animal than La Liga. And Kuyt also cost a couple million pounds more and was almost certainly on much higher wages.

Still, there's some value in comparing Aspas to Downing. Downing was more creative, Aspas far more prolific in front of goal. But only nine Premiership players created more chances per match last season than Downing. And only 12 La Liga players created more chances per match than Aspas. Aspas also attempted almost the exact number of crosses as Downing last season, completing them at a slightly inferior rate: 35 successful of 142 total for Aspas (24.6%), 39 successful of 140 total for Downing (27.9%).

Like his shots, Aspas' created chances come from all over the attacking half.



It's slightly less cluttered when looking at just the regions his created chances originated from.



Compare that to where Downing's chances took place last season (via the outstanding Dan Kennett). Dan divided the field slightly differently, but it's still easy to compare sections of the pitch.

As with his shots, Aspas is most creative just outside the box, especially on the right side. But where he'll have to improve is on the flanks, where far more of Downing's chances came from. Liverpool will remain a team that won't live or die by its crosses – unlike, say, the 2011-12 version – but Aspas will need to create more than he did for Celta Vigo last season, where 10 of his 16 chances from crosses came from corners.

It's also worth noting that despite the multitude of chances coming from outside the box, six of his seven assists came from chances created inside the box.

To continue the stat bombardment, six Liverpool players (not counting Ibe, who only made one appearance) completed more successful dribbles per match than Aspas's 0.9 last season: Suarez, Sterling, Johnson, Sturridge, Coutinho, and Enrique. Five players were dispossessed more often – Suarez, Sterling, Sturridge, Coutinho, and Enrique – and four players (again not counting Ibe) turned the ball over more often – Suarez, Sterling, Kelly, and Sturridge.

In theory, Aspas should improve in keeping possession and setting up other players when he's not the focal point, and when he's playing with better players. If used primarily on the right, he should take fewer shots, especially (hopefully) from outside the box. He should get better chances, not relied upon to singlehandedly create and score, leading to a better strike rate, although probably not more goals in total.

As with pretty much every transfer ever, there's risk involved. Will he settle, will he fit into the team system, can he adapt to a different position in a different league? And that's not even considering that he, like a certain Messrs. Suarez and Bellamy, might be as mad as a hatter. If he succeeds, it's a bargain at the rumored £7.7m; if he fails, it's more wasted Liverpool money, although less wasted Liverpool money than in previous transfer windows. However, after last January's business, I'm very much inclined to give Rodgers and the scouting staff the benefit of the doubt. Which is a reassuring change of pace considering how the previous few windows went.

03 June 2013

15 Years of Carragher and Gerrard [Infographic]

This image is massive. It's a timeline of all the matches played by Jamie Carragher and Steven Gerrard since their respective debuts in 1997 and 1998. Click on the cropped version below to open up the full image in a new window. You'll need to zoom in. And scroll. A lot. They've played a lot of matches.



Since his debut, Carragher played in 737 of 904 Liverpool matches, featuring in 81.5% of those games over 16 and a half seasons. Gerrard played in 630 of the 813 matches since his debut 14 and half seasons ago, which is 77.5%. And Carragher and Gerrard played together in 552 of those matches since Gerrard's debut, 67.9% of all possible matches.

Together, Carragher and Gerrard played in 383 Premier League matches, 77 Champions League matches, 35 Europa League matches, 33 FA Cup matches, 20 League Cup matches, two World Cup Championship matches, one European Super Cup, and one Charity Shield.

Their overall record together was 302 wins, 127 draws, and 123 losses. 200W-98D-85L in the Premiership, 42W-18D-17L in the Champions League, 20W-7D-8L in the Europa League, 22W-4D-7L in the FA Cup, 15W-0D-5L in the League Cup, one win and one loss in the World Club Championship, and one win in both the European Super Cup and Charity Shield.

The duo won 11 trophies; Gerrard missed two of those matches – the 2001 Charity Shield and 2005 UEFA Super Cup – while Carragher played in all 11.

702 of Carragher's appearances were as a starter, 35 as a substitute. Gerrard has started 573 matches and come on as a sub in 57.

Here's a link to my spreadsheet for this, if you're inclined to read through the individual matches. This graphic and the subsequent stats would have been impossible without LFCHistory.net, an invaluable, irreplaceable, simply wonderful resource.