Liverpool 3-0 Everton

Goals:
Gerrard 34' 51' 90+3'

Happy 10th anniversary, David Moyes. Love, Steven Gerrard.

Another performance in a "big game" which, while utterly wonderful – especially because it's in the derby – also makes us rue what's come before. Three goals in a league game for only the fourth time this season, all three from a rampantly dynamic Gerrard. Suarez and Carroll linking brilliantly, with Carroll all over the pitch in a deeper role and Suarez setting up two of Gerrard's strikes. Henderson impressive on the right, aided by the superlative Martin Kelly. Carragher thriving in a perfectly Carragher game. No defensive mistakes, tactically versatile (using a healthy mix of long balls and pass-and-move football), and runners from midfield supporting the strikers. More than celebratory for its one-off excellence, it's a reminder of what could have been. And no, it's not all down to Charlie Adam's omission, wise guy.

Admittedly, with matching 4-4-2s from both sides, Liverpool were assuredly better without Adam. It's hard to take much precedent from these fixtures, but Liverpool's balance was far better without the controversial midfielder. In just the third match where Suarez, Gerrard, and Carroll have all started, Liverpool took the early initiative, denied an opener by two Howard saves – on Gerrard and Suarez – with Rodwell impressively blocking Henderson's rebound from Gerrard's effort.

Liverpool weathered Everton's fight-back after the first 15 minutes, but the away side couldn't convert increased possession into opportunities on goal, mostly thanks to Kelly and Henderson blunting Everton's best creator in Baines, especially as Pienaar frequently cut inside, picked up by Spearing. Meanwhile, Skrtel and Carragher stuck fast to Anichebe and Stracqualursi, surprisingly starting ahead of Jelavic and Cahill, ensuring neither had space to do damage in the box.

Everton's impotency in the final third would soon be severely punished. Fellaini, surging forward, chose the wrong option in trying to release Coleman. Enrique coolly intercepted and immediately turned defense into attack, straight down the field in a flowing move: Enrique to Suarez to Downing to Suarez to Henderson to Suarez to Kelly, sent free by a fortunate deflection off Gerrard's shin. Kelly's shot was saved by Howard, but Distin's weak clearance under pressure from Liverpool's right back fell straight to Gerrard, who immaculately curled a left-footed strike over the stranded Howard and defender on the line.

Kelly was unlucky not to tally minutes later, pushing a shot just past the far post on another hurricane run down the flank as Liverpool looked to ramp up the pressure. Those type of runs were crucial in pinning Baines back. But Everton remained combative and solid, although pushed deeper and deeper into their own half, relieving the already-limited pressure on Spearing and the back four.

Liverpool's killer second came seven minutes after the restart, with the side able to keep up the frenzied first half pace. Pressure from Henderson and Kelly when Everton attempted to start an attack led to Kelly easily dispossessing Pienaar then sending Henderson on his way. The midfielder released Suarez behind Everton's defense on the right, and a trademark byline run past the hesitant Distin and Jagielka allowed the Uruguayan to hand off to Gerrard charging forward from midfield, lashing a shot into the roof of the net from eight yards out.

It was a singular moment which demonstrated the importance of pressing in the opposition half, Henderson's intelligence on the break, Suarez's iridescence and, most importantly, the supreme value of midfield runners. Especially a midfield runner like Steven Gerrard. Liverpool should have added a third in the subsequent seconds, but Carroll shot just wide after set up by Suarez (from a long Reina goal kick), then a diving Kelly was unable to make contact with Downing's perfect cross following a short corner.

Everton nearly responded on the hour mark, one of few opportunities all game, after Baines finally got behind Kelly, released by Pienaar's throughball, but Rodwell tamely tried to pass into the net from the left back's cutback, and Enrique was able to clear the shot – which was going wide – from inside the six-yard box. Moyes then made a triple substitution, sending on Jelavic, Osman, and Drenthe (all three were surprise omissions), but the only other chance was an irrelevant one with Fellaini unnecessarily offside. And was spurned by Jelavic anyway.

Liverpool's lone substitution came when Kuyt replaced Henderson in the 72nd, using the Dutchman's work rate when defending deeper with quick strikes on the counter. Which worked to perfection as Liverpool easily soaked up pressure, frustrating an increasingly-jaded opponent, before Gerrard got his hat-trick – the first in a derby since Ian Rush scored four 30 years ago. Gerrard burst forward after Drenthe slipped, charging into a two-on-two with Suarez and playing the Uruguayan in at just the right moment. But instead of shooting, Suarez smartly and unselfishly checked onto his right foot, taking Distin out, and centered for his wide-open captain. Suarez creates chances, lots of them, if he's got someone who can finish them off.

Despite (or because of) Liverpool's excellence, both individual players and as a team, focus will probably fall on one who didn't feature. It's harsh, but somewhat deserved after Liverpool were comprehensively excellent. Playing Everton made it "easier" – both sides ran and ran and hoofed and ran, as they always do in the fixture, and Everton consistently deploy a 4-4-2. But Spearing had his best game since Lucas' injury, clearly more comfortable with this midfield partner, and Gerrard supported the attack brilliantly. I'll probably continue to be an Adam apologist, but at the very least, this is further proof that he's not suited to a 4-4-2 formation. But Liverpool may well be. That's what we need to find out over the next 10 matches.

Everton are now just the second side Liverpool's done the double over this season, joining hapless Wolves. I'd love to proclaim this a turning point, but at this point of the season, there's little left to turn. Of course, Liverpool need to take advantage of this confidence boost and learn the tactical lessons on offer. Henderson can play on the flank, he and Downing can excel in a 4-4-2. Suarez and Carroll can play together, and Carroll isn't a wholly immobile lug.

Just as necessary as any lessons learned or confidence gained will be showing this ambition in the future, "up for it" against the likes of Sunderland or Stoke instead of just the Evertons, Uniteds, or Chelseas. There is a real team here, both in progress and in actuality, but we need to see it far more often.

Liverpool v Everton 03.13.12

4pm ET (stupid daylight saving time), live in the US on espn2

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.01.11
2-2 (h) 01.16.11
0-2 Everton (a) 10.17.10
1-0 Liverpool (h) 02.06.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Sunderland (a); 1-2 Arsenal (h); 2-2 Cardiff aet (n) [3-2 on pens]
Everton: 1-0 Spurs (h); 1-1 QPR (a); 2-0 Blackpool (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 6; Carroll 3; Adam, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson, Kuyt 1
Everton: Anichebe, Baines, Drenthe, Osman, Vellios 3; Jagielka, Rodwell 2; Cahill, Fellaini, Gibson, Howard, Jelavic, Pienaar, Stracqualursi 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Skrtel Enrique
Gerrard Spearing Adam
Suarez Carroll Downing

Maybe a knock-down, drag-out, no holds barred Merseyside Derby is exactly what Liverpool need to shake off the current malaise. For once, form's irrelevancy in this fixture might well be a good thing.

Liverpool will assuredly make some changes from Saturday's disappointment. Gerrard should be fit enough to start, Carragher will probably replace Coates (you try keeping him out of a derby). Tomorrow's match probably comes too soon for Johnson, but Dalglish will decide after today's training. Hopefully, Carroll will also come back into the fold after not starting in the last two matches.

Continuing to guess the above 4-3-3ish formation is probably wishing without evidence, but I still firmly believe Liverpool need to change its shape and, more importantly, need to find a way to partner Suarez and Carroll while deploying a three-man midfield to compensate for Adam's flaws and Lucas' absence. The hybrid 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 worked well without results against Arsenal but assuredly didn't work against Sunderland. Admittedly, motivation seemed more at fault than tactics in the latter.

In addition, Suarez has struggled as a out-and-out #9, especially since returning from suspension, with three losses in the last three league matches. It's one thing to play him in that position when he's converting chances, as during last season's run-in. But Suarez has struggled to convert chances all season. At the same time, nine of Suarez's 10 goals this season have come with Carroll on the pitch. Both strikers scored in the reverse fixture, a two-nil win at Goodison.

Liverpool played 4-4-2 in the previous derby, matching Everton's 4-4-1-1, but Rodwell's early sending off admittedly made formation moot. Liverpool pressed, pushed, and attacked for an hour, finally making the break-through against a tiring ten men. Unless Phil Dowd makes a similarly stupid decision, for either side, there's little precedent to be divined. Everton are likely to stick with the same formation, Moyes' clear favorite, with Jelavic as spearhead where Saha was in the last meeting.

In contrast to Liverpool's supremely stuttering form, Everton are unbeaten since January 11, with five wins and four draws since – including victories over City, Chelsea, and Tottenham. But all of those wins came at Goodison, while three of the four draws were away from home, including two against teams currently in the relegation zone. Moyes' sides have rarely travelled well, and he's never beaten Liverpool at Anfield; Everton's last derby away win came in 1999.

Everton's lone injury concern is January signing Darron Gibson, meaning two from Fellaini, Osman, Rodwell, and Neville – most likely the first two – will start in midfield. The back line will probably be Neville, Heitinga, Distin, Baines – unless Jagielka is fit enough to reclaim a place – with Drenthe and Pienaar on the flanks, and Jelavic and Cahill up front. We usually know what to expect from Moyes' side. Everton will be combative in midfield, look to stretch the pitch with width from Baines, Pienaar, and Drenthe, and use Jelavic and Cahill as target-men. Liverpool's central midfielders will have to be smart in possession (attention: Charlie Adam), whoever plays on the right will have to limit Baines and Pienaar's crosses, and Skrtel will have to closely mark Jelavic and/or Cahill.

Despite winning a trophy little more than two weeks ago, Liverpool seem near the precipice. Some are on the edge of revolt, prompted by too little progress and too many unnecessary failings during this transitional campaign. It's one thing when Liverpool lose after a good performance, as against Arsenal, or simply fail to convert multiple chances. It's another entirely when Liverpool lose feebly, hopelessly, and deservedly, as at Sunderland. I still want to preach moderation and patience, but time is running short.

Tomorrow's match will either mute those cries or exponentially increase them. Derbies have a way of heightening any and all emotions. More importantly, if Everton win, they'll leapfrog Liverpool in the table, an unthinkable possibility just a month or two ago. Fair or not, a poor result tomorrow will make the post-Sunderland fervor look warm and fuzzy in comparison.

Liverpool 0-1 Sunderland

Goals:
Bendtner 56'

That was the absolute worst possible response to last week's stomach punch. Liverpool never looked up for it – every player disappointed – and they meekly succumbed to a fortuitous goal from unimpressive opposition.

Liverpool's formation replicated that against Arsenal, but with Bellamy and Coates in place of Downing and Carra; Kuyt drifted behind Suarez, frequently switching with Henderson on the right, Bellamy stayed wide on the left, Adam and Spearing "held" in midfield. That and the result are the only similarities to last Saturday's fixture.

Aside from a threatening first 15 minutes from the home side, with two decent chances from set plays, Liverpool dominated possession. But did less than nothing with that possession, with three efforts on goal in the entire first half, only one of which caused Mignolet any trouble, and accidentally at that. It took until the 30th minute for Kuyt to get a tame header on target, while Suarez's run past O'Shea ended with Mignolet easily blocking a point-blank prod just before the interval. The most-dangerous was Adam's wind-aided free kick, which wasn't even a shot, misjudged but palmed over.

Liverpool were even worse after the interval, with no discernible changes to the dross we'd been treated to, and Sunderland finally made them pay just over ten minutes after the restart. Charging down to the other end after Spearing conceded an unnecessary free kick when trying to make amends in Sunderland's half, Campbell found space when easily turning away from Skrtel. His worm-burner shot bounced off the post, off Reina, and off the post again, sitting up perfectly for Bendtner as none of Liverpool's defenders thought it necessary to track the rebound. Fantastic. The woodwork finds new ways to torment.

Just as Liverpool never looked like scoring before Bendtner's opener, Liverpool never looked like replying in the 35 minutes after. Suarez and Adam wildly snatched at half-chances in the ten minutes following the game's lone goal, but that's about it. The three substitutes – Gerrard, Carroll, and Downing for Adam, Bellamy, and Henderson – did no better than the under-performers they replaced. O'Neill shifted to five midfielders with 15 minutes to play, and Sunderland easily soaked up Liverpool's pathetic possession.

Credit where due, Sunderland's tactics easily dealt with Liverpool, but Liverpool made it easy to deal with Liverpool. It's not especially difficult to work out how to beat this side. Close men down, don't allow midfielders – wide or central – time on the ball, and double-team Suarez. Wait for Liverpool to make the inevitable mistakes Liverpool inevitably makes, but rush them into sloppier play and poorer decisions than the usual sloppy play and poor decisions when certain players are on the ball.

There's no point in singling out scapegoats, no matter your favorites. And your favorite scapegoat was probably terrible today. Because Liverpool's starting XI were all terrible, the three subs were terrible, and the coaching staff was terrible. Adam did the usual awful Adam things, but Kuyt and Bellamy did nothing to support Suarez, Henderson was invisible in his best moments, Enrique and Kelly provide little support for to Liverpool's nonexistent attack, Spearing was rushed and undisciplined, the subs changed nothing, both Skrtel and Coates made mistakes, and Reina could have done better on the goal. Hurrah! Everyone sucks!

As much as it pains, the most fault lies with the manager and his staff. Liverpool went through the motions, and sloppily at that. It reminded of the final two matches last season, where Liverpool meandered through losses against Tottenham and Villa knowing that Champions League qualification was finally mathematically impossible. Whatever Dalglish said to the side, either tactically or for motivation, didn't lead to tactical superiority or motivate the players in the slightest. Only 1-3 at Bolton was as comprehensive a failure, and we had more excuses for that abortion.

Maybe Liverpool were looking ahead to the next two fixtures, against Everton then the quarterfinals of the FA Cup. That's not much of a consolation, and success in either – as unlikely that looks on today's performance – won't wash away this stain. This is the first time Liverpool have lost three successive matches since Houllier's last season. Liverpool have won just one league fixture since the New Year – at relegation-threatened Wolves not long before McCarthy's dismissal – with two draws and five losses in the others. Somewhere, Hodgson sits a dark, poorly-decorated room and laughs while waiting to be offered the England job.

I maintain what I wrote over the week, that Liverpool need to continue with the summer signings and usual starters to at least give the chance of coming good in the future, but today's disaster makes that look even shakier logic. I'm as tempted as most to scream 'kill them all, painfully if possible, and just play the reserves' simply because today was so pathetic. But that's little help in the long-term. Liverpool need these players to come good; the club's not making seven new signings this summer.

The players need to perform and the manager needs to manage. It's that simple because it's a simple bloody sport. Sunderland showed how little more than commitment and one or two lucky bounces are enough to win games. For whatever reason or reasons, Liverpool have absolutely none of that self-belief. Which is the minimum expected.

Liverpool at Sunderland 03.10.12

10am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 08.13.11
2-0 Liverpool (a) 03.20.11
2-2 (h) 09.25.10
3-0 Liverpool (h) 03.28.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Arsenal (h); 2-2 Cardiff aet (n) [3-2 on pens]; 6-1 Brighton (h)
Sunderland: 1-1 Newcastle (a); 0-4 West Brom (a); 2-0 Arsenal (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 6; Carroll 3; Adam, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson, Kuyt 1
Sunderland: Sessegnon 6; Larsson 5; Bendtner 4; Gardner, McClean 3; Ji, Richardson, Vaughan 2; Bramble, Brown, Campbell, Colback, Elmohamady, Wickham 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Coates Enrique
Henderson Spearing Adam
Suarez Carroll Downing

I still want to see more of the 4-2-1-3/4-3-3 style formation used against Brighton in the FA Cup, although that's looking more and more like a one-off. It puts Adam in a three-man midfield while still partnering Suarez and Carroll, but with additional attacking support in Downing, Kuyt or Bellamy. However, Liverpool subsequently played 4-4-2 against Cardiff, and used a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 hybrid against Arsenal last week. The fact we're still doing this formation guessing game so deep into the season is more a sign that Dalglish still doesn't know Liverpool's strongest XI or formation – although injuries have certainly played their part – more than a sign of Liverpool's versatility.

Much internet ink has been spilled about the Carragher v Coates debate in Agger's absence. I've said my piece, and hope Coates gets the start tomorrow. Carragher remains more likely to start on Tuesday because it's a Merseyside derby and he's Carragher, but Coates needs chances. In addition to Agger's broken rib, Gerrard and Johnson still have injury concerns. Gerrard's the bigger doubt, mostly due to his recent injury history; his absence would bring either Spearing or ex-Sunderland midfielder Henderson into the lineup. Potentially both if Liverpool go with the above formation. If I had to guess – which I do in lieu of concrete statements from Dalglish; we just know both trained this week – I'd assume Gerrard will be on the bench, ready to start in the derby, with Johnson back in the fold tomorrow. Kelly continues to be Johnson's obvious replacement at right-back.

However, having the derby three days after this fixture may demand more changes than we've seen recently. Liverpool haven't played two matches in a week in more than a month, since facing United and Wolves in the last week of January. All matches seem equally important at this stage, but a Merseyside derby probably takes precedence over a trip to the Northeast at this stage. Because it's a Merseyside derby. If Liverpool ring changes in one of the two, it'll probably be tomorrow.

Sunderland have won ten, drawn three, and lost four since Martin O'Neill took over in early December. The Mackems were 16th when Steve Bruce was sacked and now sit in 12th, but are just five points behind seventh-place Liverpool. Early impressive results have settled back toward reality, winless in the league in the last month – losing to Arsenal and West Brom while drawing Tyne-Wear derby last week. Sunderland's wins since early February have come in cup competition, beating Boro after extra time in an FA Cup replay before knocking Arsenal out in the next round. And three of Sunderland's four losses since December were on the road; only Arsenal have won at the Stadium of Light after O'Neill took charge.

The home side will miss two key players due to suspensions incurred in last week's derby: top scorer Stephane Sessegnon and midfield ankle-breaker Lee Cattermole. Sunderland will probably start Bendtner and Campbell up top, McClean and Larsson on the flanks, and two from Colback, Gardner, Vaughan, and Richardson in central midfield. Richardson may miss out with a calf strain, while Wes Brown, Titus Bramble, and former Liverpool defender (and God of the Sea) Soto Kyrgiakos are also out injured.

In eight matches against O'Neill's Aston Villa, Liverpool lost just once, winning four and drawing three. Admittedly, there's little precedent given Liverpool's change in managers and personnel since, but O'Neill's never had the best record against the Reds, either home or away.

The opening day draw in the previous meeting set the tone for the entire season. Liverpool was eminently wasteful – missing chance after chance, including from the spot, hitting the woodwork, etc. – and Liverpool finished level at Anfield after a solitary irreproducible volley from Larsson. It's probably too late to fully reverse this season's curse, even if (yes, Virginia) there's still something to play for, but sometimes simple revenge can be sufficient motivation.

It's Still Not Time to Play the Kids

So fourth place finally looks futile, unattainable for yet another year. Liverpool won't qualify for Europe's premier competition for the third-consecutive season, a millennium given the club's historical accomplishments.

However, I respectfully disagree with two very intelligent Liverpool bloggers. It's still not time to play the kids.

This season has been transitional, for better and worse. But Dalglish, Comolli, et al shouldn't give up on the plan for transition in the hopes of speeding up the development of long-term prospects such as Jonjo Shelvey, Jon Flanagan, Jack Robinson, Conor Coady, or, the most precocious, Raheem Sterling.

Thanks to Daniel Agger's recent injury, Sebastian Coates is a different case. The young Uruguayan should and will see more playing time than otherwise expected. Playing him instead of Carragher for the majority of matches from here out seems a no-brainer, regardless of events against Arsenal. But Agger's injury is what makes Coates' situation different. I'd say the same for Shelvey or Robinson if Gerrard or Enrique – Fowler forbid – suffered an extended injury. That's not the same as increasing Shelvey, Flanagan, Robinson, or Sterling's appearance total simply because the Champions League is now a lost cause.

The reasoning for this is two-fold. The first delves deep into the realm of hypothetical. Say Liverpool start Shelvey et al more often, and Liverpool's results become even more inconsistent and infuriatingly frustrating. Not only could that hinder the development of the individual players, it could hinders the club in general. In isolation, finishing 5th is little different than finishing 7th, especially with Europa League qualification assured due to the Carling Cup. But how Liverpool finish the season – with confidence, playing well or on a losing streak, questioning every and anything – matters very much. It will set the tone for both the off-season and the start of the next.

The second, slightly more tangible, is that Liverpool are already in transition. The first team still needs as much work as Liverpool's next generation. We'd hoped that wouldn't be the case after two-thirds of the campaign, but it is. The likes of Downing, Adam, and Carroll – whatever your feelings on any of them – have important parts to play for the foreseeable future, and we haven't seen any of them play to their potential, at least as it relates to overall team performance.

To take the most-controversial example. As much as you may not like it, Kenny Dalglish sees Charlie Adam as a crucial part of his team. Otherwise, Adam wouldn't have started 25 of Liverpool's 26 Premiership matches and 29 of 36 in all competitions, no matter the debilitating injuries to Gerrard and Lucas. Adam has a role for the next few years and he needs the playing time as much as, if not more than, Liverpool's prospects. He will most likely remain a divisive player for the duration of his Liverpool career, but there's still room for improvement within the context of the team. His long-range passes will find more targets as he continues to familiarize with attackers' runs, his positioning will improve as his learns how his ever-changing midfield partner (or partners) positions himself. We know what we're getting with Charlie Adam, but we still don't know how well Charlie Adam can play for Kenny Dalglish's Liverpool. And similar can be said about Downing and Carroll. Regardless of age or experience, we've seen new signings improve in their second season, even if we think we know the extent of each's capabilities.

There is a set plan for developing the likes of Coates, Shelvey, Flanagan, Robinson, Sterling, etc. The increasing unlikeliness of qualifying for the Champions League shouldn't change that plan. Use Shelvey sparingly, mostly off the bench with a start or two, if he's not going back out on loan. Involve Sterling with first-team training and away trips for acclimatization, maybe even a handful of bench appearances, but no more. Admittedly, if I had my way, almost every player mentioned above (excluding Coates and Sterling) would be out on loan for the rest of the season. But that's a different argument. And it doesn't appear to be part of the plan.

In addition, playing in the Europa League next year will benefit Liverpool's younger players more than anything, even more that a few forced first-team appearances over the remainder of this campaign. Livermore's progression at Tottenham is evidence of that.

What this boils down to is "keep on keeping on," as painful or boring as that may be. If this is truly a transitional season, stick to the plan for transition. Coates, Shelvey, Flanagan, Robinson and others are Liverpool's future, but the future isn't now yet.

Why Can't Everything Be Like Last April?

There has been lots of talk around the internet and in the comments of yesterday's match review about this side regressing from last season's run-in. And Dalglish (and Comolli) is obviously at fault and I'm an idiot for holding fire on the manager. Instead of replying under the fold, I figured I'd ramble here on the front page. The short version is that Liverpool weren't as good as you remember last season and aren't are bad as you think now. There. I saved you 1500 words.

But if you're still here...

A five-match stretch from April through early May is used as definitive proof of regression. 3-0 v City, 1-1 at Arsenal, 5-0 v Brum, 3-0 v Newcastle, and 5-2 at Fulham. All very good results. But those results also blind some to the memory of Liverpool losing 1-3 at West Ham, 1-2 at West Brom, 0-2 v Spurs, 0-1 at Aston Villa and insipidly going out of the Europa League, both before and after than five-match stretch.

Regardless, there was some very good football played over that stretch. Some very good football and even better results, which seemingly raised expectations for this season more than a little bit too high. There are also, unsurprisingly, some vast differences between the end of last season and Liverpool's current state.

Goals, goals, goals
Conversion of chances. Pretty much the alpha and omega of Liverpool's problems, as has been written since September. A handful of draws this season (and at least one of the losses) were just about as impressive as last season's large wins in everything but the goals. Liverpool pummeled Sunderland, United, Blackburn, and Stoke, among others, but drew, drew, drew, and lost. Aside from Maxi, who I mentioned in yesterday's review, it's the same players who were scoring at the end of last season who aren't scoring now: Kuyt, Suarez, even Carroll (against City). And not playing Maxi is not the reason Liverpool are tallying fewer than 10% of their chances. At the same time, Liverpool usually played 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 through that run-in, but 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 this season is the devil and should be killed with fire, whether it's Kuyt-Suarez or Carroll-Suarez up front.

As for chances created, the focus of last summer's spending. During that Brum-Newcastle-Fulham stretch, with 13 goals scored, Liverpool created 35 chances – 13 against Birmingham and Fulham, nine against Newcastle. Compare that to three of the eminently-frustrating results mentioned in the previous paragraph. Liverpool created 12 chances against Sunderland, 18 at Stoke, and 19 against Blackburn. And these aren't cherry-picked numbers. Chances created in other disappointing results: 12 at Wigan, 17 at Fulham, 15 against Swansea, 20 against Norwich, etc. All via FourFourTwo's StatsZone.

Two of Liverpool's summer signings, Adam and Downing, have created the most Liverpool chances by some distance. The reason each was purchased. The obvious logic is that more chances created leads to more goals created. This season's done much to kill that notion. Liverpool's attack at the end of last season was ruthless in front of goal. The same front players, on the whole, are the opposite of ruthless this season, and it's not because of fewer opportunities or where they're getting said opportunities.

And it's a problem that grows as the monkey on strikers' back grows. Each miss makes the player think longer and harder about the next. Confidence drains with every post hit and penalty spurned. At the same time, it's far easier to score after scoring. Hot and cold streaks happen in every sport, even when they're sustained over the course of a season. After all we've seen, I still believe one or two ruthless demolitions like we saw 11 months ago changes an awful lot. Much like a fortunate hat-trick against United pushed Kuyt on for the rest of the campaign or, further back, Crouch's first Liverpool goal after a long barren stretch led to him scoring seven in the same month. And Liverpool's current players have ruthless demolitions in them, whether for Liverpool in the past or at their previous clubs. As unfulfilling as it as to credit intangibles like confidence and luck, both go a long way in determining form. Single spark, prairie fire. Yes, still.

Short-term v long-term
Last season's attack during the run-in was consistent; Carroll played against City and Arsenal, but otherwise it was Suarez, Kuyt, Maxi, and Meireles in Liverpool's big wins. That consistent front four was also getting on in years. Kuyt, Suarez, Meireles, and Maxi's average age at the time was 28.5; Kuyt and Maxi were 30, Meireles 28. Keeping the latter and using Kuyt and Maxi more might have led to a few more points this season (although, given Kuyt and Maxi's form when they have played, that's in doubt), but it would also put Liverpool in a worse position long-term, even if Liverpool's most recent signings don't pan out. It's also probably churlish to mention that Meireles has had a stinker of a season for Chelsea.

The damage which Hicks and Gillett inflicted required a massive overhaul, no matter a five-match hot streak with Champions League qualification a lost cause. Liverpool made six summer signings not counting Doni, four of whom usually start if available. The average age of Adam, Bellamy, Coates, Downing, Enrique, and Henderson is 25, which drops to 23.6 without free-transfer Bellamy. Because of Hicks and Gillett (and because of Hodgson's signings), Liverpool had to get younger. And fast. With four to six changes to the first-team, growing pains were inevitable. At least now Liverpool have a foundation for the future. Downing and Adam may have disappointed more than they've impressed, Henderson remains more potential than potent, but those three players still put Liverpool in a better position for the future than Maxi and Meireles did. The squad is now deeper, younger, and more valuable.

Liverpool are in transition. We'd hoped the transition would go more smoothly. We arguably had a right to expect it. It hasn't. Nonetheless, again, aside from that five-match stretch, Liverpool weren't radically better during last season's run-in, simply more ruthless in front of goal. Performances this season, while massively inconsistent, remain better than under Hodgson and 'nearly' as good as during last season's run-in, even if results don't measure up. Because of goal-scoring. Because Suarez and Kuyt and even Carroll aren't scoring as they did at times last season. It's not Adam, Henderson, and Downing's fault those players, in position to score, aren't scoring more.

I love you, Lucas Leiva
Also, this. Goal-scoring may be the alpha and omega, but missing the Brazilian midfielder has been almost as much of an issue. Admittedly, Comolli and Dalglish deserve criticism for not replacing him; Spearing is a useful squad player, but nowhere near Lucas' level, and has played his best football for the club when partnered with Lucas. Spearing's not as effective holding in front of the back four, setting the tempo, starting the attacks, etc. In retrospect, no other absence could have hurt Liverpool's more: not Suarez, not Gerrard, not Agger. Maybe not even Reina.

Also, a lack of Lucas has assuredly hurt Charlie Adam. I maintain what I've said all season: Adam has his faults and his benefits, and the former frequently obscure the latter. Without Lucas, those faults are magnified. That partnership was increasingly potent as they formed an understanding, a near-archetypal blend of creator and destroyer. And without Lucas, Adam (or Gerrard, for that matter) necessarily has more defensive work to do. Which isn't his strong suit in the slightest. Still, it's hard to blame Adam's frequent inability to tackle for Liverpool's problems when conceding goals isn't Liverpool's problem. Liverpool miss Lucas as metronome much more than Lucas as wrecking ball. Which is the one facet that Adam, Gerrard, and Spearing can't replicate.

Liverpool could and should have planned better, but there's only so many fingers to stick in the dike's numerous holes. And Liverpool couldn't have predicted that Lucas would have missed 2/3rds of the season thanks to a freak injury.


There are other, less important excuses. Suarez's stupidly-incurred suspension(s). Gerrard's continued injury problems. Reina conceding a handful more goals because of arguable mistakes. And, yes, a handful of mistakes from the manager: tactical, selection, or substitution. Still, I'm content laying most of the blame with goal-scorers, transition, and a lack of Lucas. One facet at the foot of aforementioned players, two thanks to the cruel hand of fate.

The easiest recommendation is adding an out-and-out scorer, either replacing or in addition to Carroll. As much as I hate writing it, that purchase looks Liverpool's worst business by some distance, record fee or no record fee. I really want to like the player: young, multi-talented (even if he doesn't show it enough), and with a physicality that most defenders can't handle when he's on his game. But goals are the problem and Liverpool's most-expensive striker rarely looks like scoring. When he can even get in the side.

But then again, Andy Carroll is just 23. It could also mean, much to our chagrin, that Liverpool still needs more time to adjust to the past year's overhaul, made with an eye on the future despite short-term hopes for an immediate return to the Champions League.

I'm not exonerating Liverpool's player recruitment or certain team selections. Despite the above excuses, there's still a chance Downing, Adam, Henderson, and/or Carroll don't work out. It was a calculated gamble, one we still can't fully judge. Liverpool's pre-FSG state, Chelsea and City's oil money, United's insane commercial revenue, Financial Fair Play regulations, and no Champions League football means Liverpool have to gamble. But Liverpool also gambled when paying £10m for Alonso, taking West Ham-outcast Mascherano on an expensive loan, and breaking the club transfer record on an unproven-outside-of-Spain Torres. And gambled on Pennant, Gonzalez, Riera, etc solving the non-stop problem on the flanks. Sometimes gambles work and sometimes gambles don't.

All I meant by yesterday's review was that things aren't as bad as some make out and Liverpool's tactics against Arsenal worked well everywhere but in front of goal. We all mock Chelsea for failing to give Villas-Boas time and leeway to make necessary changes, then demand Dalglish return to what worked for a month almost a year ago. No one likes suffering through the short-term in the hopes it'll eventually pay off, but patience remains a virtue. Yes, even when the sky is falling. Which it isn't at the moment. Even if/when Liverpool miss Champions League qualification for next season, there's still a very good chance that patience pays off in the future.

Liverpool 1-2 Arsenal

Goals:
Koscielny (og) 23'
van Persie 31' 90+3'

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Liverpool are the better side but score only once despite multiple chances, missing a penalty (and the rebound) and hitting the woodwork twice. Then Liverpool concede on the lone opposition opportunity when van Persie gets in front of Carragher far too easily. And that was just the first half. It got worse in the second.

One you haven't heard is that all this led to a Liverpool loss, the first of the season at Anfield and the first Liverpool's suffered after taking the lead. Of course, eight of the other 12 home matches finished level. Which is why Liverpool are where they are. The dream that's been deferred by draw after draw finally seems dead.

We worried about Carragher against van Persie, and the worries proved truer than feared. Liverpool's stand-in captain bears much of the blame for both Arsenal's goals, but both were outstandingly taken by the league's top scorer. Still, he's only part of the reason why Liverpool lost, and probably not even the biggest reason. The team with the league's best finisher, despite defensive frailties and injury issues, beats the "better" team who can't score for love or money. Stop the presses!

With Gerrard, Johnson, and Agger unavailable, Liverpool deployed a 4-2-3-1 as expected, but with Kuyt lurking behind Suarez and Henderson ostensibly on the right. And tactically, Liverpool's plan "worked": keeping possession, creating chances, and limiting Arsenal's. Until van Persie struck almost solely on his own. Liverpool truly were the better side in everything but the goals and it's hard to fault the tactics for the forwards' utter profligacy.

Granted, Liverpool's lone goal was incredibly lucky, a disappointing low Henderson cross which Koscielny fortunately turned into his own net, but once again, there's opportunity after opportunity to lament. The first epitomized Liverpool's intent, a Reina punt bypassing midfield, Koscielny's error letting Suarez in, but Downing whiffed on his attempted 25-yard volley into an open net. Suarez and Henderson contrived to foul up a fast break four minutes later, over-intricate and mis-controlled by the midfielder.

Then came the penalty fiasco. Suarez won it after a smart one-two with Kuyt, going down on Szczesny's stupid lunge despite minimal, if any, contact. It was still a cast-iron penalty. Which Kuyt sent too close to the keeper, also seeing his weak rebound well-saved, Liverpool's sixth miss (eight if you count the Carling Cup spot-kicks) in nine attempts this season. Koscielny's own goal four minutes later looked a reprieve, karma for the early blown opportunities, but Liverpool failed to take advantage, continuing to spurn shots for the rest of the half, in keeping with the totality of the season so far.

It could have been two two minutes after the opener. Another break led to Kuyt smartly finding an open Henderson. Szczesny saved his effort, Suarez put the rebound onto the post. Six minutes after that, Arsenal were level. Sagna had too much space to cross, and van Persie easily got in front of Carragher, unstoppably heading past Reina from close range. The rest of the chances in the half were Liverpool's, as usual: Szczesny palmed Suarez's poke behind after a magic jinking run, Skrtel headed the subsequent corner over, and Kuyt hit the post with the last kick of the half after redirecting Adam's low cross.

Arteta's frightening injury soon after the restart blunted the home side more than Arsenal had to that point, with the Gunners keeping possession far better (but with few sights of goal) after a six-minute delay. Each side had two excellent chances in the final half-an-hour. Kelly whiffed on Kuyt's cross from yards out after regrouping following a corner and a long ball five minutes later released Downing and Suarez behind Arsenal's defense but the winger's center that should have led to an open goal was too close to the keeper. Those opportunities sandwiched Walcott's near goal, brilliantly saved by Reina after Gibbs got behind Kelly.

Liverpool continued to have the majority of possession after those quick-fire chances, but without any of the earlier opportunities. As the team was playing "well" (coupled with unnecessary midweek exertions), Liverpool waited until very late to make changes, replacing Downing with Bellamy in the 86th. But then van Persie struck in added time, coolly taking Arsenal's second excellent chance of the half, as you'd expect from the league's runaway top-scorer. Song's ball over the top found van Persie in space between Carragher and Kelly, uncovered by either, with his volley sweetly (and too easily) past Reina at the near post. Two shots, two goals. That's the difference between these sides. Pretty much the only difference. Liverpool had 12 shots to Arsenal's 10 in total, but seven of Arsenal's 10 were on target, compared to Liverpool's four of 12. Liverpool had 12 corners to Arsenal's zero. Zero.

Admittedly, you can criticize some of Dalglish's selections. Carragher instead of Coates was a worry, but nearly every manager ever is going to go with a veteran club legend (despite his obvious flaws) rather than a promising 21-year-old who's made all of two league appearances, especially if Liverpool's regular captain is out injured. If Suarez is playing as a lone striker, Maxi should probably play given how well the two link up. But it's hard to criticize Liverpool's tactics, which mostly stifled an XI which rampaged over third-placed Tottenham last week. Had Liverpool converted one of those chances in the first 75 minutes, Liverpool probably wins the game. Again, that's the difference between these sides.

Which is why any criticism should fall on the shoulders of the players. Kuyt, Downing, and Suarez should have tallied today, the first two far more disappointing than the latter, who actually had his best game since returning from suspension. Spearing and Henderson were excellent in midfield, Skrtel was again superlative at the back, and Enrique silenced Walcott just like in the reverse fixture. The strikers, along with Adam and Carragher, are the scapegoats. I have little defense for any of them.

But it's hard to countenance universal dismissal of this team's potential or the manager's intelligence. The changes since Dalglish and FSG took over are undeniably evident, and no matter league position or repeated disappointments, this side is vastly better than anything we saw under the previous regime. Granted, that's little consolation given the money spent, but if you can't see progress, even if Liverpool's now basically assured of missing the Champions League for the third-straight season, I can't help you.

Liverpool v Arsenal 03.03.12

7:45am ET, live in the US on espn2

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 08.20.11
1-1 (a) 03.20.11
1-1 (h) 09.25.10
0-1 Arsenal (a) 03.28.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Cardiff aet (n) [3-2 on pens]; 6-1 Brighton (h); 1-2 United (a)
Arsenal: 5-2 Spurs (h); 0-2 Sunderland (a); 0-4 Milan (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 6; Carroll 3; Adam, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson, Kuyt 1
Arsenal: van Persie 23; Walcott 5; Arteta, Gervinho 4; Vermaelen 3; Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey 2; Andre Santos, Benayoun, Chamakh, Koscielny, Rosicky, Sagna, Song 1

Referee: Mark Halsey

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Enrique
Gerrard Spearing Adam
Suarez Carroll Downing

A potential Carling Cup hangover, with the added bonus of a wholly unnecessary midweek internationals. Going into an utterly crucial contest that will go a long way in deciding who finishes fourth. Fantastic.

The above would be as much 4-1-4-1 as 4-3-3, with Spearing replacing Henderson, using elements of formation deployed against Brighton rather than the more-orthodox 4-4-2 in the Carling Cup final. Most importantly, playing three central midfielders against an Arsenal team that often dominates possession rather than a midfield duo.

Of course, all this is contingent upon Gerrard being available after picking up a knock 30 minutes into a meaningless England friendly which, of course, England lost. Thanks Pearce, thanks FA. If Gerrard's out, it seems like Henderson would replace the captain in almost a straight swap. He's been at his best in an advanced role through the middle, which would probably render the formation more a 4-2-3-1 with Henderson ahead of Spearing and Adam. Spearing and Adam would help mark van Persie and whoever plays behind van Persie when Arsenal are in possession, while Henderson would close down Arteta's deep-lying creativity.

Carroll surprisingly started in the reverse fixture, the second match of the campaign, without Suarez and with Liverpool in a reasonably-defensive 4-2-3-1 at the Emirates. I expect both Suarez and Carroll to start regardless of the formation unless fitness demands otherwise, as they have in the last two matches. Once again, it's tempting to substitute Bellamy for Downing in this formation, but the winger has shown improvement over the last few matches, culminating in him man-of-the-match performance on Sunday, while Bellamy remains a dangerous weapon off the bench. In addition, Bellamy played 75 minutes in Wales' Wednesday friendly, and his ability to play two games in so short a spell remains in doubt. Kuyt could also come in, on the right with Suarez moving to the opposite flank, a big game player for yet another big game. But as in the Carling Cup final, Dalglish has shown a proclivity for playing 'his players,' those signed in the last year, in the most-important fixtures.

Agger's injury pretty much demands Carragher as his replacement, with Skrtel moving over to play on the left of central defense. Both are worrying facets. Skrtel's looked far better paired with Agger and playing on his more-comfortable side, while Carragher against van Persie always frightens. With Agger out for at least a month, I expect Coates will get chances. But a match against Arsenal – whatever form they're in – that will be fairly crucial for deciding fourth is probably not the place for that chance.

Arsenal had a horrific week prior to their North London demolition derby, ostensibly knocked out of two competitions after losing 0-4 in Milan followed by an 0-2 loss in the FA Cup at Sunderland. The 5-2 mauling of Spurs, after initially going 0-2 down, was more than a proper response. But 7-1 against an insipid Blackburn earlier in February demonstrated their potential for ruthlessness, as did a 5-3 victory at Stamford Bridge in October. Only City and United have scored more league goals than the Gunners.

Van Persie has 23 of Arsenal's 53 league goals – 43%. Liverpool's joint-top scorers, Bellamy and Suarez, each account for just under 21% of the club's league goals. Of course, Bellamy and Suarez have only scored six each. And Liverpool has only scored 29 in total. Arsenal have scored 29 solely at the Emirates.

Last time these two teams met, Arsenal were riven with injuries. It's gotten better in the intervening months, but not massively better. Andre Santos, Frimpong, Mertesacker, Coquelin and Wilshere are still long-term casualities. Ramsey recently incurred an ankle injury which rules him out. Rosicky picked up a back injury which makes him a late fitness test. And most importantly, Vermaelen and van Persie suffered knocks during those unnecessary midweek internationals, but both will probably be available. If Vermalen and van Persie are fit enough to play, Arsenal's XI will look something like Szczesny; Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Gibbs; Arteta, Song; Walcott, Benayoun, Gervinho; van Persie.

As said over and over, as necessary and lovely it was to see Liverpool's trophy hex broken, the Carling Cup victory was just as important as a platform for the future. Success breeds success and so forth. Seven points behind Arsenal (and Chelsea) with a game in hand, it's hard to see Liverpool pushing on to fourth if they lose tomorrow. 10 points in 12 games begins to push the bounds of mathematical credibility. But Liverpool has an all-too-familiar tendency to stretch credibility to its breaking point.