14 January 2010

On Maxi Rodriguez

Poor Maxi Rodriguez. From Atletico’s fire to Liverpool’s frying pan.

I can’t decide whether I’m happy or skeptical, optimistic or pessimistic over the deal. Little has a silver lining after yesterday’s calamity, but I felt similarly before the match. And yesterday's result will only intensify the pressure on Rodriguez, which obviously isn’t fair.

First and foremost, Maxi Rodriguez is a classy player that’s impressed me the few times I’ve seen him. He’s a clever, skillful attacker with a cannon of a shot, and Liverpool could certainly do with more creativity, especially from the flanks. He scored the best World Cup goal I’ve had the fortune of seeing, and a peach of a strike at Anfield last season. And he needs to prove his worth to the national team before this summer’s tournament, which is a massive incentive.

That he’s signed for three and a half years – instead of the 18 months first suggested – also demonstrates Benitez has faith in his adaptation. Or it could say that Liverpool were hamstrung to the player’s (read: agent’s) demands.

It’s cliché (and it certainly wasn’t true for the last player Liverpool signed from Atletico), but I just can’t get the memory of Morientes out of my head. I worry about how Rodriguez will adapt to English football and where he’ll fit into the team. While Benitez unsurprisingly said he can play anywhere along the line of three, he’s been on the right every time I’ve seen him. And while Kuyt’s recent form has revived the debate over his merits on that flank, he’ll still be hard to dislodge from Benitez’s 4-2-3-1. But who knows if Liverpool will continue with that formation; it certainly hasn’t done wonders of late.

Having played with Mascherano, Insua, and Torres should also be a massive benefit. Maxi’s relationship with Masch was a key factor in coming to Anfield, and he played well with Torres at Atletico before his knee injury and Torres’ transfer. He’s yet another player that’s captained a club or country side – Gerrard, Torres, Mascherano, Benayoun, Lucas, Kuyt, and now Rodriguez (I reckon Carra counts as a leader too).

But he’s struggled to recreate his best form for almost three years now, since a serious knee injury in ’06-07. He still played nearly 40 games in each of his last two seasons, but I wonder how much gas is left in the tank. Atletico’s problems assuredly haven’t helped his recovery either, but that alone makes me question how he’ll adapt.

That and Liverpool’s form – sadly parallel to Atletico’s at times this season – won’t ease any transition. We’ve seen the pressure built by expectations in Aquilani’s performances after finally getting over his injury. Any player finds it hard to settle into a struggling side.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still thrilled Liverpool signed someone, and on paper, Rodriguez checks a lot of boxes. The cost was also right, which is a rarity in January. And to be honest, if his clearance goes through in time and he’s fit, I hope he’s thrown in the deep end against Stoke. Can’t do much worse. But this season should have demonstrated that there's little chance of panaceas.

13 January 2010

Liverpool 1-2 Reading aet

Cavalieri
Degen Carragher Agger Insua
Aquilani Lucas
Kuyt Gerrard Benayoun
Torres

Goals:
Bertrand (og) 45+1’
Sigurdsson 90+3’ (pen)
Long 100’

Comical. Unfortunate. Deserved. Typical. And no, there’s no acronym there.

It looked like Liverpool would hold onto the one slice of luck received – a chance deflection in the last minute of the first half – but not this season. Even when Liverpool were in the lead, that luck was tempered by misfortune, with Torres off after 30 minutes (for Ngog) and Gerrard replaced at halftime (by Babel), both picking up knocks despite 11 days of rest between matches.

No matter the line-up, writing ‘Liverpool had more possession, but (insert opponent) had the better chances’ is seriously getting old, especially when it’s against the 21st-placed Championship side. Reading should have punished Liverpool sooner, and when Benayoun clumsily tripped Long in the box, Reading got the goal their play deserved. After that, it’s little surprise they went on to win in extra time.

Once again, it started typically, with some decent early possession. Reading defended in numbers, but pressed high effectively as well, forcing Liverpool into too many hoofs for the second straight game and prompting some gut-churning giveaways. Once again, the opposition threatened through breaks and set plays, and had two excellent openings in the 22nd and 26th. First, Rasiak missed a sitter after Church broke down Liverpool’s left and Carragher stepped over the low cross. Then, McAnuff’s deep early ball narrowly eluded the on-rushing Church.

Liverpool’s response was two half-chances fifteen minutes later – Benayoun curling high and wide after Degen’s good run and Ngog’s shot straight at Federici – until that fortunate goal. Gerrard broke into the box after Reading couldn’t clear a short corner, and when the captain got the ball back from Ngog, his low cross was diverted in by left back Bertrand.

The second half saw the home side with even more possession and little to show for it, but Reading rarely threatened Liverpool either. Until the 80th minute. For some reason, the damn burst with 10 minutes remaining, with Liverpool's lone decent chance to make it a two-goal margin Aquilani’s misplaced header in the 71st. Then McAnuff did his best Maradona impression, beating five Liverpool defenders on a mazy run from midfield only to place his shot wide of the far post, and Liverpool invited Reading on. Church could only put Gunnarsson’s header onto the roof of the net in the 85th, while Cavalieri had to push away Sigurdsson’s curler in the first minute of added time.

And then Reading got that penalty. Agger and Benayoun collided while trying to clear a ball that should have been cleared 30 seconds earlier, and Benayoun clipped Long stretching to make the tackle. Making it even worse was Liverpool denied a penalty for Bertrand's handball three minutes earlier. Sigurdsson nonchalantly sent Cavalieri the wrong way, providing us 30 minutes of Liverpool with their tails between their legs.

It couldn’t have been a worse blow to confidence. And it was little surprise to see Long find a winner ten minutes into extra time. Gunnarsson worked space down Liverpool’s left and sent in a perfect cross for Long, between Skrtel and Agger (Skrtel came on for Degen at the start of ET), to head in.

Liverpool had two good chances to equalize after Long’s goal, but both Benayoun and Ngog disappointed either side of the interval. Benayoun stayed onside to be one-on-one with Federici in the 105th, but tamely shot too close to the keeper. In the 112th, Lucas won the ball well and found Ngog, but the striker quickly snatched at the ball, mis-hitting it tamely wide. From there, Liverpool huffed and puffed, but never blew a brick out of place.

It’s the insipid, toothless performances that infuriate more than the results. I don’t fully blame Benitez for players’ form, and I certainly can’t blame him for injuries, but Liverpool have been mired in a funk with or without Gerrard and Torres. It took a fortunate deflection to score against Reading at Anfield. Liverpool played well for all of 15 minutes in the previous meeting, culminating with Gerrard’s solitary goal. And it took a moment of magic for Torres to win it at the death against Villa. That’s just the last three games, and it’s not a recent trend.

I have no suggestions. I am beaten down. I can’t defend that. The sooner the season’s over the better. I don’t want to get all melodramatic (again), but I hope the club survives. I still hope Benitez survives as well, as I've written far too often, but I have no defense for him today. There’s always a new low. Hopefully, once Liverpool dig their way to the bottom they’ll find a way back up.

12 January 2010

Liverpool v Reading 01.13.10

2:45pm, live in the US on Setanta

Last 4 head-to-head:
1-1 (a) 01.02.10
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.15.08
1-3 Reading (a) 12.08.07
4-2 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 09.25.07

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Reading (a); 1-0 Villa (a); 2-0 Wolves (h)
Reading: 1-1 Liverpool (h); 1-4 Plymouth (a); 1-1 Swansea (h)

Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Torres 12; Benayoun 7; Gerrard, Kuyt, Ngog 6; Babel 3; Johnson 2; Insua, Skrtel 1
Reading: Sigurdsson 7; Rasiak 6; Church 5; Bignall, Hunt, Mills, Mooney, Pearce 2; Cisse, Howard, Kebe, McAnuff 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Darby Carragher Agger Insua
Lucas Aquilani
Kuyt Gerrard Benayoun
Torres

So much for no winter break in English football.

With more than 10 days since the last match, the fixture that forced this replay, I imagine we’ll see an even stronger team than that which lined up at the Madejski. Yes, Liverpool travel to Stoke three days later, for a 7:45am kick-off, but the team desperately needs a win, and needs to put the last underwhelming performance behind them. You know, for a change…

As this replay is the last of Mascherano’s four-match suspension, Liverpool will probably shift back to the 4-2-3-1. That this game is at Anfield makes Aquilani more likely to feature, and Lucas should provide enough protection as the midfield shield, like against Villa. Gerrard sitting deeper in midfield, along with Lucas in a 4-4-2, was absolute pants last time out, only further marginalizing the struggling captain, despite his crucial goal.

It’d be nice if Riera were fit – Liverpool misses the different option he provides on the left – but I still don’t believe we’ll see Babel from the start. Even if he’s not being sold (which is most likely because Benitez wouldn’t be allowed a replacement), we haven’t seen any sign that the Dutchman’s getting more time – or that he deserves it. Until then (or until Maxi Rodriguez’s deal goes through), it’s Kuyt and Benayoun on the flanks. Liverpool has no need for the conservative tactic of starting both Aurelio and Insua on the left, especially with a tougher game three days later and Spurs in a week.

While I hope to see a stronger backline – with Agger replacing Skrtel and Carra shifting to his preferred right centerback spot – I’d still rather Darby get a second successive start than have Carragher at right back. With Kelly out for at least another week and the Degen to Stuttgart rumors picking up pace, Darby and Carra seem the only two options. And while Carragher’s experience will probably be preferred against Spurs (and possibly Stoke), Darby needs games like this for experience and to prove if he’s capable.

Like Liverpool’s match against Spurs this weekend, Reading’s contest with Newcastle was also postponed. The Royals are still winless since sacking Brendan Rodgers, and will be without new signings Andy Griffin and Gunnar Thorvaldsson as they weren’t registered for the first match. Marek Matejovsky, who scored in the last league meeting between the clubs, will be fit again after a broken jaw, while keeper Adam Federici, who limped off at the Madejski, should return as well.

That both teams should and will prioritize their respective leagues won’t lead to a half-hearted game. As said above, both teams will probably deploy close to their strongest XIs. At the least, Liverpool will need to in the hopes of avoiding Manchester United’s fate. And at the same time, there’s only so many ways to write that Liverpool needs to win and needs to turn a corner sometime. Here’s hoping it’s tomorrow.

11 January 2010

Results Comparison: 2008-09 v 2009

It's been too long since I've done one of these infographics. And it's not like it's hard to devise ways to graphically demonstrate Liverpool's dire season so far.


Through 20 league games, Liverpool's 14 points worse off than in comparable fixtures from last season. 14 more points would put Liverpool at the top of the table by two points over Chelsea, 3 points ahead of United with a game in hand. That's why Liverpool's poor form and these results are so infuriating. This is the most wide-open the Premiership's ever been.

Liverpool's gotten a few better results, but only a few: winning at Villa and against both Stoke and Hull. All three were draws last season. But at the same time, Liverpool got a worse result against Villa at Anfield, a 1-3 loss this season compared to a 5-0 win last April.

The other worse results were losing at Chelsea, Fulham, Portsmouth and Sunderland, losing to Arsenal, and a draw at Blackburn. We could also include the home draw against Birmingham; Liverpool beat all three relegated teams at Anfield last season, but Brum's stronger than Newcastle, Boro, and West Brom.

Unsurprisingly, more than half of the inferior results came away from Anfield; as said in the midseason stats review last week, Liverpool's away record is the worst since '06-07. Which might have something to do with the lack of confidence; as soon as the team hits a bump, heads drop, and there isn't an Anfield cauldron to help boost the struggling side.

The current league places of teams Liverpool's lost to? 1st (Chelsea), 3rd (Arsenal), 4th (Spurs), 6th (Villa), 9th (Fulham), 11th (Sunderland), and 20th (Portsmouth). Only one of those is completely and totally unforgivable – I expect Sunderland (and the other five) to finish in the top 10 this season. But that's a sign of where Liverpool currently is. Amongst the middle of the pack top-half teams. And that's unacceptable.

Naturally, I'll update this graphic at the end of the season. Hopefully, we'll have a little more to cheer about.

10 January 2010

The Summer of ’08

Liverpool bought six players in the summer of 2008 for a total of roughly £39m. With the sale of Dossena to Napoli, two of those – the first and third most expensive – are no longer with the club. The other four – Riera, Cavalieri, Ngog, and Degen – have made a combined 64 league appearances (100 games in total) in a season and a half, with Riera accounting for 37 (58%) of those.

I’m far sadder to see Dossena leave than I was the back of Keane. In retrospect, neither proved good business, but Dossena kept his head down, worked hard, didn’t complain, and chipped in those two memorable goals against Madrid and the Mancs. Keane couldn’t hit a brick wall with a shotgun at six paces, missing chance after chance and unable to come to terms with anything Benitez asked. And then he whined about Rafa’s man-management to the press. Tomkins’ most recent piece is an incredibly thorough review of Keane’s tenure (and Benitez’s dealings, and the English media’s idiocy), while results demonstrated that Liverpool were far better after the Irishman’s exit even though Benitez wasn’t allowed to buy a replacement.

Liverpool lost somewhere in the region of £5.5m from the Keane and Dossena deals. Every manager does some unsuccessful business, but the summer of ‘08 couldn’t have come at a worse time. Not only was Liverpool arguably on the precipice of greatness – and still came in second despite the summer’s business – the club was also apparently on the precipice of financial collapse. Benitez would probably kill someone to add £5.5m to his coffers at the moment. Even after recouping £6m from the sales of Dossena and Voronin, rumor has it that Benitez will only be given £1.5m for Maxi Rodriguez at best.

This isn’t a condemnation of Rafa’s transfer dealings, like I’ve seen far too often of late. Again, Tomkins’ piece magnificently dispels the myths, but the majority of his buys have been successful – Reina, Torres, Mascherano, and Agger should form the spine of this team for years to come, while Liverpool made a profit on Alonso, Crouch, Bellamy, Sissoko, and Arbeloa, among many others. The ones that haven’t been hits were usually the budget signings. Of the “failures,” only Keane cost more than £10m (Cisse, bought by Houllier, doesn’t count). I’d willingly compare Benitez’s flops to Ferguson’s (Veron, Kleberson, Taibi, Forlan, Djemba-Djemba, Berbatov).

Unfortunately, Liverpool doesn’t have the means to accept failures the way United does, thanks to two owners who piled debt on the club prior to a worldwide recession, who finally gave Benitez full control last season only to seal the purse strings. And thanks to an egregiously disappointing first half of the season, I truly fear we’ll look back on the summer of 2008 as we do 2002 for Houllier.

08 January 2010

Liverpool v Tottenham Postponed

It's been a lovely winter so far, both on the pitch and weather-wise. And with conditions likely to worsen over the weekend, Liverpool appealed to have Sunday's match against Spurs postponed. Thankfully, the league complied.

According to a club spokesman:

"Although the Anfield pitch is perfectly playable for the game, the problem we face is the icy condition of the approach roads and paths in the immediate vicinity of the stadium. The safety of our fans is paramount and an assessment of both the prevailing conditions and the weather forecast for the next 48 hours has been made in arriving at the decision to call off the match."

Pfft. There's probably no conspiracy given how many other matches have been called off, but I think it's clever. With a midweek FA Cup replay, the rearranged fixture will come after Mascherano returns from his four-game ban. The new date hasn't been announced yet, but with the amount of matches imminent, the game probably won't be played for at least a month, which would mean Johnson, Riera, and Kelly could be fit. Maybe Liverpool will have made a signing (or two!!!) before then. Hell, maybe the form will finally improve.

Clever, clever Liverpool. I blame that crafty Spaniard.

Weather permitting, the next match is Wednesday against Reading.

02 January 2010

Liverpool 1-1 Reading

Reina
Darby Skrtel Carragher Insua
Kuyt Gerrard Lucas Aurelio
Ngog Torres

Goals:
Church 24’
Gerrard 36’

Oh goody, a replay. An insipid performance against the 20th-placed Championship side despite starting a stronger team than expected and a change of formation isn’t the best way to start 2010. Apart from a 15 minute spell to end the first half, Reading were arguably the better team – at least they looked threatening, even if mainly from set plays. I know it’s the FA Cup, I expect Liverpool to win the replay, and any away tie’s tricky, but there’s little to be pleased about. At least Liverpool weren’t punished further and got a deserved equalizer.

The change to 4-4-2, with Ngog supporting Torres and Gerrard deeper in midfield, didn’t bolster the attack as hoped. It led to more hopeful punts from deep towards Ngog and Torres as much of the play bypassed midfield, with Liverpool incapable of retaining possession.

Meanwhile, Reading looked threatening down both flanks, with McAnuff and Sigurdsson testing both Insua and Darby. Once the home side starting racking up set plays, the old fears set in and were soon confirmed. McAnuff won a free kick off Insua, and the ball in found Rasiak at the back post having eluded both Lucas and Darby. Somehow, the striker kept the ball in, flicking back for Church in behind Skrtel. Watching Liverpool defend set plays has become performance art.

Unsurprisingly, the goal took the wind out of Liverpool, but the team finally started creating some of the play we’d hoped for after five or so minutes. Ngog and Kuyt combined well only to see Torres head the Dutchman’s cross wide in the 32nd before Gerrard equalized after an even better move four minutes later. Kuyt won the long ball for Ngog, who spread it to Lucas in the middle. The Brazilian's quick ball wide looked to be too far for Insua, but the fullback recovered possession and set up Gerrard, whose dangerous cross-cum-shot was dummied by Kuyt into the back of the net.

This game would be an after-thought had Liverpool been able to attack like that with more regularly. But Gerrard volleyed over in the 38th, Torres’ couldn’t flick it past Federici after a clever run in the 43rd, and Aurelio missed the far post after Kuyt found him in space a minute later. Liverpool would rarely recreate that sort of football in the second half.

The 'hoof and hope' mentality Liverpool were prone to took over after the restart, and it only helped Reading. Reina had to parry Sigurdsson’s 25-yard blast in the 55th, one of the few opportunities for either side, before Liverpool replaced Ngog with Aquilani, hoping to change the play by pushing Gerrard forward. Didn’t help. Neither did Reading have to switch keepers after Federici pulled up at the same time Liverpool made its first substitution. Liverpool never tested stand-in Hamer with a shot on target, only a low cross that caused confusion and a corner where the referee blew for infringement; the best chance came on a clearance that Torres nearly got on the end of in the 80th, but Hamer came out quickly to close down.

Benayoun’s entrance with 10 minutes to play, for Aurelio, didn’t change much either. I don’t want to single out Aquilani – early days, new signing – but he still looked off the pace of the English game, unable to link midfield and attack (he wasn't alone in this regard, though). Reading forced a spell of pressure at the end before Liverpool almost found the winner, with Torres only able to head Benayoun’s inventive cross onto the roof of the net. The last action of the game, a corner cut out by the first defender, pretty much summed up the final 45 minutes.

There are few positives to take away. At least Liverpool’s not out of the competition, and I distinctly remember a 5-0 mauling in an FA Cup replay after Liverpool were held to a poor 1-1 away result. But that’s a marginal “at least.” Only Reina, Ngog, and Lucas had decent games – Liverpool looked a lot worse after the young Frenchman went off – while Darby impressed in only his second start even though Reading were attacking the flanks. Torres looked lively at times but was starved of service. Carragher was shaky as a left-sided central defender paired with Skrtel, while Gerrard as a 4-4-2 central midfielder didn’t work at all, even if he once again delivered a crucial goal. McAnuff had the beating of Insua far too often, even if an early (and probably unnecessary) yellow hindered the young fullback.

I couldn’t be more nervous for Spurs next week. Liverpool certainly won’t get very far by replicating today's performance.

01 January 2010

Liverpool at Reading 01.02.10

12:15pm, live in the US on Setanta

Last 4 head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.15.08
1-3 Reading (a) 12.08.07
4-2 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 09.25.07
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.07.07

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Villa (a); 2-0 Wolves (h); 0-2 Pompey (a)
Reading: 1-4 Plymouth (a); 1-1 Swansea (h); 1-1 Bristol City (a)

Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Torres 12; Benayoun 7; Kuyt, Ngog 6; Gerrard 5; Babel 3; Johnson 2; Insua, Skrtel 1
Reading: Sigurdsson 7; Rasiak 6; Church 4; Bignall, Hunt, Mills, Mooney, Pearce 2; Cisse, Howard, Kebe, McAnuff 1

Guess at a squad:
Cavalieri
Darby Carragher Skrtel Insua
Lucas Spearing
Kuyt Gerrard Babel
Ngog

Benitez has firmly stated that the FA Cup’s more important with the state Liverpool’s in, yet I can’t help but expected a weaker line-up. It won’t be the Carling Cup by any means – there are eight days until the next match, and it's impossible to overestimate the team’s need to keep winning (three in a row for the first time in 20 matches would be nice) – but three games in the last week, injuries/the need to rest players (Torres and possibly Gerrard), and the fact that the Premiership has to be the priority will affect the team put out.

The biggest, and most necessary, change should be Ngog for Torres. Torres might be fitter than we suspect and just needs game-time, off the pace from being in and out of the side, but I doubt it. I’m tempted to suggest similar in regards to Gerrard, but the captain’s usually a different case, especially with eight days to rest up. And yes, I’m still fearful of Aquilani starting instead of either Lucas or Spearing, even with a week off. It’d be his third start in seven days, which is a lot for someone who’s been wrapped in cotton wool for four months.

But if Babel doesn’t start, he truly is on his way out. He’s become one of the most divisive players, with those wanting him in the side over-hyping his talents and those fed up with him completely dismissing the player. But this seems a perfect opportunity with Riera still injured, Benayoun not fully fit, and Dossena looking even more likely to depart.

And we got more bad news on the injury front with Johnson now out for at least a month with a medial ligament tear. As Kelly's not fit for another two weeks, I’d assume Degen or Darby would step in at right back, as they’ll be needed over the next few games, but Benitez might use Carragher at right back more often than not. However, the importance of the next month and the improvement of the vice-captain after some early-season problems should lead to his continued presence at centerback. Let Darby and Degen fight for the spot until Kelly and then Johnson are fit.

Reading is currently 20th in the Championship, two points clear of the relegation zone. Brendan Rodgers, a former coach under Mourinho, left Reading by that ubiquitous “mutual consent” two weeks ago, with Brian McDermott taking over as interim boss for the last three games. Few names remain from the side relegated in 2008 – Marek Matejovsky, Ivar Ingimarsson, and Shane Long the most familiar.

But this is the FA Cup, Reading’s at home, and I don’t have to remind anyone of Liverpool’s problems this season. Nothing cab be taken for granted.