11 January 2008

Liverpool at Boro 01.12.08

10am EST, live in the US on Setanta

Last 4 head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (h) 04.18.07
0-0 (a) 11.18.06
2-0 Liverpool (h) 12.10.05
0-0 (a) 08.13.05

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Luton (a); 1-1 Wigan (h); 0-0 City (a)
Boro: 2-1 Bristol City (a); 0-2 Everton (h); 1-0 Pompey (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 10; Gerrard 7; Babel, Kuyt, Voronin 3; Alonso, Benayoun 2; Hyypia, Sissoko 1
Boro: Downing, Tuncay 4; Arca, Wheater, Mido 2; Aliadiere, Cattermole, Hutchinson, Young 1

Referee: Andre Marriner

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Finnan Carragher Hyypia Arbeloa
Pennant Gerrard Mascherano Kewell
Torres Crouch

I gave a real preview a go, but as I’m still sicker than a dog, it wasn’t even close to coherent. The flu sure is fun. Sorry again.

I really better be healthy by tomorrow. A Liverpool win at a venue where they haven’t gotten all three points in over five years would certainly help.

10 January 2008

Predictions 1/12 - 1/13

Sorry for the silence over the last couple of days, but I’ve succumbed to a nasty stomach bug that’s been going around and not been in the mood for much of anything. Is the Skrtel deal finally done yet?

Also, I realize I’ve just guessed scores without any “commentary” too often of late in these predictions, but please forgive it one more time.

Arsenal v Birmingham, 10am, FSC: Arsenal 2-0
Chelsea v Tottenham, 10am, Setanta Xtra: Chelsea 2-1
Aston Villa v Reading, 10am: Villa 2-1
Derby v Wigan, 10am: Derby 1-0
Everton v Manchester City, 10am: Everton 2-1
West Ham v Fulham, 10am: 1-1
Manchester Utd v Newcastle, 12:15pm, FSC: United 3-0
Sunderland v Portsmouth, 8:30am Sunday, Setanta: 0-0
Bolton v Blackburn, 11am Sunday, FSC: Blackburn 1-0

Liverpool at Boro is on Setanta at 10am on Saturday.

08 January 2008

Martin Skrtel

So Skrtel passed his medical and it seems he’ll be rubber-stamped sometime today. [Liverpool Echo] [BBC]

It’s not Mascherano putting pen to paper, and everything I wrote on Friday still holds, but at £6.5m, this will be Liverpool’s most expensive signing in defense.

It is also a position where Liverpool needed strengthening before the injuries to Agger and then Hyypia, and probably had to do it during this transfer period.

And spending £6m+ on a 23-year old defender who’s one for the long-term and will probably be handled like Agger was in his first season (and getting the deal done a week into the transfer window) seems to demonstrate that Rafa’s still planning for the future, and he’s being supported by the board.

We’re not out of the woods yet in regards to manager vis-à-vis management, but this is a welcome step.

Plus, just take a look at the fella. Yikes.


06 January 2008

Liverpool 1-1 Luton Town

Itandje
Finnan Carragher Hyypia Riise
Benayoun Lucas Alonso Babel
Kuyt Crouch

Goals:
Crouch 73’
Riise (og) 76’

Well, that was deserved.

I’m going to preface the rest of this by saying that anything can happen in the FA Cup, this was Luton’s cup final, the biggest match of their season, and despite their financial troubles, Luton’s home form hasn’t been bad this season.

But that said, I don’t need to say that Liverpool should have won this match. No matter how well Luton played or their motivation, Liverpool should have scored in the first half, should have forced their style of play on lower-league opposition, and should have kept the lead once they finally got the opener.

And yet, Liverpool was probably lucky to get a draw. Babel’s chance within 24 seconds, cutting between two men and forcing an excellent save from Brill, should have set the tone, but for much of the match Luton was the better side. Liverpool players were frequently both out-played and out-fought, and that’s unacceptable.

Luton had a threatening chance of their own before 5 minutes were gone, with Edwards beating the offside trap and forcing Itandje to come out to block the attempt, and as Liverpool failed to break the deadlock or impose themselves on the game, Luton grew in stature.

Drew Talbot was especially a handful, and it’s painful to see the backline that kept so many clean sheets in 05/06 struggle this season. But Luton couldn’t convert their increasing pressure into goals, and after the break, Liverpool again started the brighter.

But in the first six minutes of the second half, Benayoun was unable to direct Kuyt’s threatening cross into the net, and then Brill made another excellent save, this time from Riise’s deflected shot. And again, Luton began to see more of the ball and take the game to Liverpool.

However, in the 73rd minute, it looked as if Liverpool had finally changed their fortunes. Coyne and Perry combined to accidentally put Voronin through on Brill against the run of play, and although the keeper again made the save, Crouch was there for the rebound.

However, like against Wigan, Liverpool relinquished a hard-won lead to a fluky (albeit on the whole, probably deserved) goal. Talbot again posed Liverpool problems, and although he should have never gotten a cross off, he again found a way through. And although his effort eluded the on-rushing Edwards, it deflected past Itandje off Riise’s foot and hand.

To a man, none of the Liverpool players can be pleased with their performance. Yeah, excuses can be made for some. Itandje could do nothing about the goal and was an imposing figure in his area, but his distribution certainly can’t hold a candle to Reina’s. Alonso’s not match fit and Luton gave him absolutely no time on the ball, but he wasn’t the calming figure or playmaker he usually is. Despite the fast start, Babel grew increasingly invisible as the game went on. Crouch got a goal in his first start back, but failed to link up well with other attackers. But no one was good enough, and I can find criticisms with everyone in a red shirt.

Kuyt especially will rue his performance today. This was a game where Kuyt needed to play well and get some of his confidence back, as we’ve seen he’s better than recent performances indicate. But he did not take his chances (and he got chances), and it was probably his worse game of this recent stretch, although he moved further right in the second half and saw fewer opportunities as a result.

I still don’t want to come off as doom and gloom. It’s readily apparent that Liverpool is going through a bad spell, but the bad spell shouldn’t make everyone forget about some of the games earlier this season. We know this team can score goals, and from more than just Torres and Gerrard, and we know the team can play better than this. The Derby, Besiktas, Portsmouth, Marseille, and Bolton wins, among others, weren’t complete aberrations.

What’s the most frustrating isn’t the result. It’s the way that Luton wanted it more and were far more willing to work for it than Liverpool. The talent’s in the squad, it’s the drive that needs to be there. You don’t win games by being the better team on paper.

And again, this result is going to create more questions about Benitez. I realize that the manager does more than just pick the team, and obviously something’s missing motivationally, but I don’t know what Benitez should have done differently with the line-up. Torres clearly needed a rest, as did Mascherano, and Gerrard, Arbeloa and Aurelio weren’t fit. The team couldn’t have been much stronger.

Yes, this game looked a lot like others where Liverpool’s struggled over Benitez’s regime. They struggled to get the goal and create much in the final third, and if a clean sheet wasn’t kept, drew the game thanks to an unfortunate goal. But despite this bad spell, I still believe the team is better this season than last. Maybe we got carried away with some of the early results and margins of victory, and too much promise came to fruition too soon, but building a top-level side takes time. And I still believe this manager is the one to do it.

Keep faith.

Replay at Anfield a week from Tuesday, and I have to believe it'll be a completely different match.

04 January 2008

Javier Mascherano, Rafa Benitez, and the future of Liverpool

As per usual, I try to say as little as possible about transfers before they’re completed, but with article after article speculating over the future of Javier Mascherano, I feel the need to chime in.

The Mascherano signing is the canary in the mineshaft for this club. It will be more of a bellwether about new owners’ priorities and capabilities than anything we’ve seen so far.

More so than the promises over the stadium. More so than the spending last summer, much of which was recouped through sales and money brought in from the Champions League run. Far more so than any platitudes doled out in the interviews and press conferences held by Gillett and Hicks.

Rafa: I want Masch to stay

We shouldn’t have to see pieces like this again and again. It is clear Mascherano is vital to this team. It is clear Benitez wants him permanently, and it certainly appears as if Mascherano wants to stay, although players’ public pronouncements always have to be taken with a grain of salt.

I can’t pretend to know all the vagaries about his contract with MSI. We can’t even be sure that the £17m price tag so frequently quoted is true. But in any case, the holdup is wearying and feels unwarranted.

And although the loan runs until the summer and it’s only the 4th of January, I’m quickly tiring of the saga being played out in the press. Other clubs are already sniffing around, and while Mascherano seems happy in Liverpool, it’s impossible to predict the future.

I’d hope that Liverpool’s not reliant on making some sales before a deal’s done, but even if that’s the case, what’s the hold up? Carson’s deal with Villa has seemingly been in the offing for months, and I’m sure most readers are aware of the couple of other names rumored to be leaving.

But the other worrisome thing is that the signing is also a bellwether for the future of Rafa Benitez. The Mascherano deal certainly seems linked to the discord between Benitez and the new owners a month and a half back.

Even if I’m upset with Liverpool’s progress in the league, and have not been thrilled with the results over the past couple of weeks, I still believe that Benitez is the right man for Liverpool. But I also believe the management – the new owners, board, and Rick Parry – must support Benitez fully.

The January window is hit-and-miss and riddled with inflated price tags. Doing business over this period can easily backfire. But more than ever, I think that Liverpool needs to be active in the market and to support Benitez’s plan for the future. First and foremost because I believe the team needs improving, but it’s also a time to get behind the manager, and demonstrate that Liverpool’s on solid footing and continuing to move forward.

The permanent signing of Javier Mascherano is a necessary first step on that road. Only that, or backing of Benitez in the window to make other purchases, will really reassure me that the rift between manager and management is behind us.

Liverpool at Luton 01.06.08

11am EST, on in the US on pay-per-view

Liverpool is 5th in the Premiership with 38 points from 20 games
Luton is 21st in League One with 23 points from 23 games

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Wigan (h); 0-0 City (a); 2-1 Derby (a)
Luton: 1-0 Yeovil (h); 2-1 Port Vale (a); 1-1 Bristol Rovers (a)

Referee: Howard Webb

Full squad, according to the BBC:
Liverpool: Reina, Finnan, Carragher, Hyypia, Agger, Riise, Hobbs, Sissoko, Mascherano, Alonso, Kewell, Babel, Lucas, Kuyt, Crouch, Voronin, Torres, Benayoun, Pennant, Itandje.

Guess at a line-up:
Itandje
Finnan Carragher Hobbs Riise
Pennant Lucas Alonso Babel
Crouch Voronin

If the squad list on the BBC is right, I have to say, I’m a bit surprised.

With Gerrard, Arbeloa, and Aurelio ruled out through injury and much of the first team looking utterly exhausted following the festive period, I figured we’d see a line-up similar to that against Cardiff in the Carling Cup.

Benitez has frequently played stronger teams in the FA Cup compared to the Carling Cup following the reaction to the loss at Burnley in 04/05. But Liverpool’s also played a lot of games of late, and despite the setbacks recently, focus still has to be on league performance. But all season long, Benitez has put out stronger teams than expected in games where I figured certain players would be rested (Reading in the Carling Cup and Derby away in the league spring to mind).

I’d prefer to see Babel as a striker again, as in the Carling Cup against Cardiff, but without Leto in the squad and with Kewell playing a lot of games recently, I’d imagine Babel will start on the left. That is, unless Liverpool comes out with a surprise formation, either 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, as seen other times this season.

I’d also have thought that El Zhar might get another game after his performance against Cardiff, but as he’s not in the squad either, I have to believe that Benitez thinks Pennant can go for a second time this week, although Benayoun only played about 20 minutes on Wednesday. But if both Pennant and Crouch start, I think we’ll see Pennant’s crosses finding a target a bit more often than against Wigan.

Agger could also see time, as he’s in the squad and considering the injuries to Arbeloa and Aurelio, but I’ve still haven’t seen any confirmation from the official site or Benitez that he’s finally close enough to fitness. But we never got any confirmation about Pennant before his return.

Even if Liverpool rests players, it shouldn’t be the same as Burnley three years back. The line-up for that game was Dudek, Raven, Hyypia, Whitbread, Traore, Nuñez, Biscan, Welsh, Potter, Warnock, Pongolle. Any line-up Liverpool could send out on Sunday will be stronger than that.

I’m not trying to downplay the game or any threat Luton may pose. The FA Cup isn’t the Carling Cup, and any team, no matter the division, can beat another on their day.

But I still can’t move past my frustration with the league performance. The FA Cup would be a lovely bonus, but it’s still just that: a bonus. A win could do wonders to restore some of the morale and get the team back on track, but the bigger test will still be next Saturday at Boro, where Liverpool’s winless in the last five attempts (0-0, 0-0, 0-2, 0-0, 0-1).

Also, in a site business note, I apologize for not coming through with a second midseason review, but after the Wigan game, I’ve little inspiration to write something focusing on players’ performances, as I doubt I’d give them a fair shake. And while the midseason situation says a lot about how the rest of the season will go, nothing’s set in stone just yet.

02 January 2008

Liverpool 1-1 Wigan

Reina
Finnan Arbeloa Carragher Aurelio
Pennant Alonso Mascherano Kewell
Gerrard
Torres

Goals:
Torres 49’
Bramble 80’

Of all the luck. What a way to start the new year.

I am the ultimate apologist for this regime. And I’ve got no apologies to make. This was a game Liverpool should have won. I don’t want to write “should have won with ease,” because there are no easy games and Steve Bruce always finds a way to frustrate Benitez in the league, but it certainly feels like the game should have been put away at a canter after the deadlock was finally broken.

The 0-0 scoreline at halftime, although unwelcome, wasn’t completely surprising. Despite the inability to break Wigan down, the game was always going to be cagey. And while it’s easy to write in hindsight, believe me when I say I thought a goal was always coming. Liverpool was dominant in possession and passed the ball around well, even if the end product was lacking (Kewell was the main culprit, and it was good to see Pennant back) and Wigan were holding firm.

It was always going to take a fluid passing move to cut apart Wigan and surprise, surprise, it culminated in Torres’ goal. In defense of my preview, I only guessed at his fitness levels (and still left him in my fantasy teams), but he’s proving time and time again how crucial he is. And credit has to be given to Gerrard and Finnan (superbly continuing his run forward and providing the assist) for their parts in the goal, but again it’s more evidence that Torres has been far and away Liverpool’s best player so far this season.

And although you’d expect the floodgates to open after unlocking Wigan at Anfield, the second goal never came. Credit especially to Kirkland for some marvelous saves (another former keeper at Anfield performing well above recent form) and Wigan’s defense (especially Melchiot) for closing down quickly, but Liverpool also appeared to take the foot off the gas and let Wigan back into the game. I’m far too angry to do actual research, but it certainly seemed like Wigan’s possession must have doubled after Liverpool’s goal.

And then, in the 80th minute, up popped, of all people, Titus Bramble. After a free kick when Mascherano picked up a petty foul (and yellow) on Bent in the center circle, Gerrard’s sent his clearance straight at Bramble well outside the box, and he rifled it into the net. It was an absolute stunner. He couldn’t do it again on a bet.

And other than a miraculous double save on Gerrard by Kirland in the 84th minute, Liverpool had little response. And now we get to hear all about how Liverpool’s blown the title hopes for another season. Super. Can’t wait.

There’s going to be a lot of condemnation written about the team and Benitez, and I honestly can’t bring myself to defend it. Maybe later after stewing over this, and undoubtedly my reaction is more severe thanks to Liverpool's recent form and title aspirations, but this is a game Liverpool should never have drawn, and now they've opened themselves up to all the criticism that’s been bubbling. This is embarrassing; Wigan have never scored against Liverpool nor taken a point off of the “big four.”

A lot rash will be written about both players and managers, and I’ve got little desire to add to it. Yes, that’s the title assuredly gone for the season, but if that leads you to trash the team or manager, or stop following results as closely, then politely go screw.

It took a wonder goal to pull even. Liverpool got zero breaks, either from lady luck or Steve Bennett (who hasn’t given Liverpool one 50/50 decision since giving two penalties against Sheffield last season, and was doing all he could to avoid booking a Wigan player, despite their shithouse tactics). I utterly detest Bruce’s strategy (even if I understand it) as an offense to football, and I don’t think that Liverpool's 4-5-1 was too defensive, whatever the line-up leads one to think. I couldn't be angrier, but I'm also not going to write anything I regret.

FA Cup match against Luton on Sunday, which is pretty much an afterthought, then I expect the team to be out for blood against Boro a week from Saturday.

01 January 2008

Liverpool v Wigan 01.02.08

3pm EST, live in the US on Setanta

Last 4 head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a) 09.29.07
2-0 Liverpool (h) 04.21.07
4-0 Liverpool (a) 12.02.06
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.11.06

Last 3 matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 City (a); 2-1 Derby (a); 4-1 Pompey (h)
Wigan: 1-2 Villa (h); 1-0 Newcastle (h); 1-1 Fulham (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 9; Gerrard 7; Babel, Kuyt, Voronin 3; Alonso, Benayoun 2; Hyypia, Sissoko 1
Wigan: Bent 7, Landzaat, Scharner, Sibierski 3; Bramble, Heskey, Koumas, Taylor 1

Referee: Steve Bennett

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Finnan Arbeloa Carragher Aurelio
Gerrard Alonso Mascherano Babel
Crouch Kuyt

Gerrard and Torres looked utterly fatigued on Sunday.

I realize resting Torres is heresy, and it was a 0-0 draw against a Steve Bruce-managed side that led to the loudest clamor for his permanent inclusion, but he’s started every game other than the Carling Cup match at Chelsea since returning from injury against Fulham in early November.

His class is sometimes necessary to break down cagey teams, which Liverpool has struggled to do in the past, but his fitness is paramount, and honestly, Liverpool should have enough class to get goals regardless; I shouldn’t have to remind that Torres didn’t feature in Liverpool’s largest rout this season. And worst-case scenario, Torres should be available to come off the bench if needed.

Gerrard’s in a similar situation, but he’s the captain and plays nearly every league game if available. As he’s seemingly fatigued, a freer role on the right may not be the best position for him, but I don’t know how much Wigan will offer going forward at Anfield. Plus, with both Alonso and Mascherano in the team, Gerrard would ideally be able to focus on the attack, and could be subbed off early if Liverpool’s in front. It may just be a crisis of faith, but I don’t know if Liverpool can leave out both Torres and Gerrard, despite Wigan’s position in the league.

With the amount of fixtures over the past few weeks, it seems like one of those games where we might be in for a surprise with the line-up. But Liverpool can ill-afford to drop any points in the league, especially at Anfield, where the home form has been less than impressive. And players will assuredly be rested in the FA Cup match against Luton on Sunday, with a week until the following match at Boro.

In team news, I expect Crouch to start upon his return from suspension, while it looks as if both Hyypia and Agger are still out, meaning Arbeloa will probably be drafted into central defense for the second straight match. But with Wigan likely to defend for the majority, it might be a match for Hobbs to get more experience.

Steve Bruce-led sides almost always come to Anfield and play for a 0-0 draw. But they’re also successful at it; the draw with Birmingham in September was archetypal of this. The football’s not pleasing on the eye, but it’s a tactic teams have to resort to with the gulf in spending between some of the sides, and it’s not as if Liverpool isn’t familiar with the approach by now.

I don’t want to downplay any threat Wigan will offer. Both Heskey and Koumas should return to the side, and Liverpool’s been susceptible to the counter-attack at times this season. And despite a dearth of goals for the most part, Wigan did put 5 past Blackburn a little over two weeks ago.

But we’ve seen consistencies in past matches against both Wigan and against teams managed by Bruce. The biggest question tomorrow should be if Liverpool has the cutting edge to break down what will most likely be a very resilient Wigan side.