09 March 2007

Champions League Quarterfinal Draw

Liverpool v PSV
Chelsea v Valencia
Man Utd v AS Roma
AC Milan v Bayern Munich

The draw for the rest of the Champions League took place this morning, with the quarterfinal match-ups shown above. The semifinals will be the winners of first and second games, and the winners of the third and fourth games.

I am about to throw a hex here, but I have to say, I’m more than pleased with the draw. Not so much because Liverpool will face a team they beat and drew in the group stage, although that doesn’t hurt, but more because all three English teams have been kept apart, at least for this round. And also simply because of the tastiness of all four contests.

I’ll admit it, I was absolutely dreading a match-up with the Mancs. I may be in the minority; I read a fair bit about Liverpool fans wanting United for revenge, much like the 5th round of the FA Cup victory over United last year and Chelsea in the CL semis in 2005 after losing in the League Cup Final. But honestly, I’ve seen enough of them for the season. And the point of European competition is to play teams that aren’t a few minutes down the M62 and your biggest rivals. Liverpool can’t face United unless both reach the final. Which would probably lead to the apocalypse. Or at least a full-scale riot. Probably smart to start praying for the Athenian police now, just in case.

But I really do believe that all four games should be decent ties. Milan and Munich are European mainstays, but both have been under par in their domestic campaigns, although Milan did have to cope with an 8-point deduction. An 8-point penalty doesn’t explain 30 points behind the league leaders, however, while Bayern still surprisingly sit in 4th in the Bundesliga, 6 points behind Schalke. Neither are used to being in those positions in their leagues, but both are more than familiar with this stage of the competition, and each other, having met in the round of 16 last season, where Milan won 5-2 on aggregate.

United will face an attacking team that could give them problems in Roma. In Totti, Mancini, and De Rossi, among others, Roma have players who can summon that moment of brilliance to turn a game, much like Ronaldo, Rooney or Scholes. There should be goals galore in this one, and honestly, despite United’s excellent season and the Roma’s manager’s wariness, I really can see this one going either way.

In the other half of the bracket (sorry, broke into American speak there), Chelsea will face Valencia. Of course, if Valencia are allowed to remain in the tournament after the fracas following the Inter Milan game, but I imagine we won’t see a similar situation to Tottenham’s bye through the UEFA Cup following Feyenoord’s dismissal for crowd trouble. I hate to look ahead, because Chelsea should be odds on favorites for this match-up and Liverpool still must get past PSV, but how entertaining would it be for Benitez to meet his old team in the Champions League semis? The media could be ever lazier than usual, with their narrative already completely written for them. I hope that Valencia can turn over the Blues, partly out of spite, partly hopeful for the semifinal match-up, but with all the money spent that I described yesterday, I can’t see Chelsea going out at this stage.

And there will be no underestimation of PSV, despite Liverpool probably being happy with the draw. Not only did PSV prevent Liverpool from making any real headway when they met at the Phillips Stadion, but Eindhoven’s manager, Ronald Koeman, will delight in the chance to face Benitez again, as he led Benfica last season, when they unceremoniously dumped out the reigning European champions. Mind you, Liverpool was probably happy with last year’s draw against Benfica as well. But I find it hard to believe the team could go into this match complacent, especially after the enormous win over Barcelona, and the fact that this is the last chance for a trophy this season.

The first leg of the round will take place April 3rd or 4th, with the return legs the following week.

08 March 2007

England in Europe

We’ve reached the second knockout round in both European competitions and 5 English teams are still alive: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United in the Champions League, and Newcastle and Tottenham in UEFA Cup ties, going on as I write. Chelsea, United and Liverpool, in that order, are the bookies’ favorites to win the Champions League. In addition, both Arsenal in the CL and Blackburn in the UEFA Cup qualified out of their groups only to lose in the first knockout round. Even Scotland's performed at a better level, with Rangers alive in the UEFA Cup and Celtic dumped out of the CL by AC Milan yesterday. Is this a special year, a little bit of luck, or simply a fluke?

I guess I’ll start from the beginning, with the opposition each faced in the group stages:

Chelsea: Barcelona, Levski Sofia, Werder Bremen
Liverpool: Bordeaux, Galatasaray, PSV
Man Utd: Benfica, Celtic, FC Copenhagen
Newcastle: Celta Vigo, Eintracht Frankfurt, Fenerbache, Palermo
Tottenham: Bayer Leverkusen, Besiktas, Club Brugge, Dynamo Bucharest

Admittedly, Liverpool had a fairly easy route out of the group stage. And despite being in marginally more difficult groups, both Chelsea and United were favorites to qualify from theirs. As were the teams involved in the UEFA Cup, even though, as history has proved time and time again, the UEFA Cup is much more of a crapshoot, especially in the group stages with the mix of home and away games. All around, it does seem as if English teams have had an easier path than in years past. But not by much. 3 of England’s big four qualified out of their groups last year. United crashed out of Europe last year with a similar group, and on paper, it seems a lot more likely that Liverpool would have beaten Benfica last year than Barcelona this year.

This has been a strange year all around. Both competitions, but especially the Champions League, have seemed far more by the book than in previous years. The UEFA Cup, with the insane amount of teams involved and far easier path for those who drop out of the Champions League after the group stage, always throws up some surprises but a recognizable winner. But the Champions League has been exceptionally “normal” this year. Porto in 2004, Liverpool in 2005, and Arsenal reaching the final in 2006 were all surprises to some degree. Now, it seems like we’re left with all big names and few surprises. Chelsea and Valencia are the sole teams remaining to never reach a European Cup final, and along with Roma, are the only to have never won one. More importantly, Chelsea and Roma are the only teams left not a member of the G-14.

It wasn’t my intention when thinking up this topic to finish with a rant on the commercialization of football and on the G-14. But it’s an unavoidable conclusion. Big money has become a necessity to compete at the highest level. While it’s been an issue domestically for a while longer, especially in England with the “big four” monopoly, it’s become more and more apparent across Europe competition as well. Chelsea and Roma may not be members of the G-14, but it’s not as if either are suffering for funds. And in the UEFA Cup, Spurs and Newcastle are more than well-financed, despite not being one of the big four.

I hate to use Chelsea as an example, but look at what they’ve done this past year. £30m plus for Shevchenko's transfer and an egregious amount of money in wages for Ballack. Not to mention something like £25m combined for Salomon Kalou and John Obi Mikel. All for a better chance at the trophy that has eluded Mourinho while in London, because I guarantee those purchases weren’t made for the Premier League.

England, at the forefront of this commercialization, is reaping the benefits in European competition. Admittedly, I am enjoying this year’s European competitions (even the UEFA Cup!) because of a greater familiarity with all the teams involved, but this is yet another example of what many have feared in the game. Money doesn't quite rule everything yet, as I'm fairly sure Barcelona's side is more expensively assembled than Liverpool, but we're not far away from that point, and it's not as if any of the teams remaining are checking under the sofa for loose change.

06 March 2007

Liverpool 0-1 Barcelona (agg 2-2)

Eidur Gudjohnsen had to make it nerve-wracking, but a 1-0 loss will more than suffice. Normally when Liverpool are dominant but don’t make their opportunities count, it’s a kick to the crotch, but the away goals rule is looking a pretty excellent rule right now. Liverpool had to defend staunchly, keep Barcelona from playing their game, control the tempo, and prevent two goals. They did all of those things, and it’s why they’re through to the next round.

But with 10 shots to Barca’s 1 in the first 45 minutes, you’d think Liverpool would have settled the tie before halftime. Riise narrowly missed wide and thundered another off the bar before 15 minutes were off the clock. The crossbar took another beating when Sissoko sent in a speculative volley with Valdes out of his goal, and later, Valdes was again called into action, saving from Bellamy and Kuyt before Puyol cleared Riise’s header off the line. All in the first half.

It took until Gudjohnsen’s entrance in the 71st minute for Barca to play with any real impetus. For the majority of the game, it looked as if Liverpool were the team behind. When Barca had possession, they frequently passed across the backline looking for an opening until the Anfield crowd started to boo. Ronaldinho’s chance in the 53rd minute, where he turned Carragher, ran past Arbeloa and hit the post, was the only other time Barca truly threatened until Gudjohnsen rounded Reina in the 75th minute. Which set up a fun final 15 minutes.

Even with the 0-1 scoreline, I feel secure in saying the team was excellent for the most part. Barcelona will continue to have nightmares about Momo Sissoko, who covered the entire pitch, closed down Barcelona players immediately, opened up the field with an improved eye for the pass, and made himself a general nuisance, to put it gently. It’s an absolute shame he picked up a yellow card that rules him out of the next match, but it’s a testament to his growing maturity that the early yellow did nothing to upset the rest of his game.

Carragher and Agger were also again immense at the back. For me it's a toss up as to who's man of the match, Carra or Momo. Carragher made his usual last-ditch tackles superbly and with aplomb, but Agger defendly strongly as well (Finnan too), and both were dominant in the air, an aspect of their games that had been questioned in the past. Gerrard was also excellent, bursting down the right early on, and driving Liverpool forward late in the game when Barca could have gotten a second. Liverpool got good work down both sides of the pitch; both Riise and Gerrard bombed forward, but got back to defend and in getting back to defend, prevented the triumvirate of Ronaldinho, Messi, and Eto’o from really getting into the game.

And I must mention Kuyt as well, who was another that was absolutely everywhere on the field. He needs to have a greater scoring return to be a truly world-class forward, but his defense from the front and overall work rate were outstanding today. Adjectives truly do fail me. His harassment of Barca’s backline and midfield was a key component in keeping the Catalans from implementing their style of play on the match, and only later on, when players began to tire, did the game open up for Barca.

When the draw took place, there were long odds on Liverpool to go through to the next round. Now out of both domestic cups and the title race, it’s a small consolation to have beaten the Champions League holders and progress to the final 8, but a consolation nonetheless. Friday’s draw will see who Liverpool face in the quarter-finals, but on the performance over the last two legs, they’ll be confident in whomever they face. Which can only be a good thing, both in Europe and to see out the rest of the league campaign.

05 March 2007

Liverpool v Barcelona 03.06.2007

2:45pm. Available in the US on espn2.

Liverpool leads 2-1 on aggregate.

Barca is currently 2nd in La Liga

Champions League Group Stage results:
Liverpool: 2-3 Galatasaray (a); 2-0 PSV (h); 3-0 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Bordeaux (a); 3-2 Gala (h); 0-0 PSV (a)
Barca: 2-0 Werder Bremen (h); 2-0 Levski Sofia (a); 2-2 Chelsea (h); 0-1 Chelsea (a); 1-1 Bremen (a); 5-0 Levski (h)

Goal scorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Crouch 5; Garcia 3; Bellamy, Fowler, Gerrard 2; Gonzalez, Riise 1
Barca: Deco, Gudjohnsen, Guily, Iniesta, Ronaldinho 2; Eto’o, Messi, Puyol 1

European History:
Liverpool: European Cup/Champions League 1977, 1978, 1981, 1984, 2005; UEFA Cup 1973, 1976, 2001; UEFA Super Cup 1977, 2001, 2005
Barca: European Cup/Champions League 1992, 2006; Cup Winners Cup 1979, 1982, 1989, 1997; UEFA Super Cup 1992, 1997

Referee: Herbert Fandel (GER)

It’s seemingly easier to pick Barca’s line-up than Liverpool’s, as their line-up and formation is fairly set in stone when fit. I’d imagine it will look something like:

Valdes
Oleguer Thuram Puyol Zambrotta
Deco Edmilson Xavi
Messi Eto’o Ronaldinho

My complete guess of a lineup:
Reina
Finnan, Carragher, Agger, Aurelio
Gerrard, Sissoko, Alonso, Riise
Crouch, Bellamy

In contrast, I’ve got little clue how Liverpool’s going to look. One thought is that there’s no reason to deviate from the squad that won at Camp Nou. Another is that Liverpool will play with a 5-man midfield and a lone striker in an attempt to better keep possession. However, I just can’t see Liverpool deviating from the 4-4-2 or maintaining the exact same squad. What worked last time won’t necessarily work at Anfield, with changes in Barca’s squad and a completely different atmosphere and motif for the game, but this formation is how Liverpool’s been the most successful this season. Yes, even with Gerrard on the right…

I’m also of two minds as to which forwards to play, as usual. Bellamy was the best player on the pitch in the last match, Kuyt is an ever-present, and Crouch, who had postponed surgery on his broken nose to be available for this game and the United debacle, is the leading scorer in Europe and would seemingly give Liverpool more opportunity to maintain possession. Because of Crouchy’s height and ability to hold up the ball, I’ve gone for him over Kuyt. Kuyt hasn’t sat out a game since the Carling Cup match against Arsenal, and even though I didn’t think he had a poor game against United (his first touch was actually better than it had been in recent matches), he’s the one I’m leaving out.

Both Aurelio and Arbeloa (included over Finnan) make my squad because of their familiarity and success playing Barcelona. No more, no less. And it's just a hunch. Finnan has started every first-team game I can think of, and it would be odd to see him dropped now, but Arbeloa arrived with fanfare for defending Ronaldinho, and not only does Aurelio offer another (much needed) option for free kicks, he’s also more than familiar with Barca’s attack.

As has been said since the final whistle last leg, this tie is far from over. Barca has the ability to score goals in buckets, no matter who they’re playing. And Eto’o will add another dimension to Barca’s attack that Liverpool must be ready for, full fitness or not. His movement with Ronaldinho and Messi offers so much more than Saviola or Gudjohnsen, not to mention he’s quicker and defends from the front better.

It’s been good to see both the team and fans both keyed up for and stoic about this game; the atmosphere at Anfield will really be a 12th man. I detest this cliché, but it’s true, it has influenced teams before, and it will here. And heads must be kept out of the clouds, as Benitez seemingly has done so far, because at 2-1, the tie is far from won.

Roll on Barca.

Quick CL Predictions

Last week’s CL predictions weren’t that far off (in contrast to how they usually go around these parts), so here’s this week’s match-ups, with the first leg score and US TV coverage. Quick picks, because not much has changed from last week in my thought processes. All games kick off at 2:45pm EST.

Games I’m looking forward to in addition to Liverpool/Barca are Bayern/Real and Milan/Celtic. With the 3 injuries Madrid picked up over the weekend (Beckham, Reyes, and Higuain), I think Bayern will be able to overturn the deficit and 2 away goals. The 0-0 draw Celtic earned at home has the potential to make this a close game, with Milan playing in front of a smaller crowd. But so far, Celtic’s been fairly dire away from home in Europe.

Tuesday
Chelsea v Porto (agg 1-1), Setanta; delayed 4:45pm ESPN Deportes, 5pm ESPN Classic - Chelsea 3-1
Valencia v Inter (agg 2-2), ESPN Deportes - Valencia 2-1
Lyon v Roma (agg 0-0), delayed 5pm Setanta - Lyon 1-0

Wednesday
Man Utd v Lille (agg 1-0), espn2 - United 2-0
Milan v Celtic (agg 0-0), Setanta PPV - Milan 1-0
Arsenal v PSV (agg 0-1), Setanta; delayed 4:45 ESPN Deportes - Arse 2-0
Bayern v Real (agg 2-3), ESPN Deportes; delayed 5pm ESPN Classic and Setanta - Bayern 3-1

Liverpool v Barca (2:45 Tuesday, espn2) preview up soon.

03 March 2007

Liverpool 0-1 Manchester United

This is going to be an awful review, but given the circumstances, I’m surprised I’m even attempting one.

United snatches it at the death, on an undeserved free kick. And it’s John O’Shea with the winner, when the ball bounces right to him after Reina blocked Saha. Awful memories of Ferdinand snatching one at the death two years ago, but even worse. Exponentially worse due to the fact Paul Scholes had been sent off less than 10 minutes earlier for petulantly attempting to punch Xabi Alonso (and missing), and Edwin Van der Sar making the save of the game on Crouch less than 5 minutes earlier. In a game where Liverpool were the better team for the majority, with Ronaldo and Giggs silenced until the late goal and Carra and Agger dominant with something like only three shots allowed. Liverpool’s first home loss since Chelsea in the fall of 2005, and the first goal given up at Anfield in over 15 hours. And it probably guarantees United their first Premier League title in 4 years. At Anfield. In the 91st minute. Life. Is. Not. Fair.

Anyone but United. Good god, why always against United?

I probably shouldn’t be writing anything about this at the moment, but I know if I don’t now, it won’t get written at all due to the fact this is at the top of the list of memories to repress. The quicker this is acknowledged and forgotten, the better.

And I hate writing in this state, knowing it’ll give undue comfort to the enemy, but well done to them (I will now slit my wrists with a rusty razorblade). But they (kill me now) deserve to gloat. They held on for the majority of the game. Liverpool wasted the chances they could carve out. Van der Sar’s save on Crouch. Bellamy’s goal (rightly) ruled out because Momo got a head on Riise’s shot. Any number of corners hitting the first defender and easily cleared. All the usual profligacy problems.

Utterly gobsmacked. And it’s too early to start drinking.

Can’t do anything but look ahead to Barca and then Aston Villa. Progress in the Champions League and cementing 3rd place. Both are still in reach. Heads cannot drop after this, despite overwhelming temptation. Not with Tuesday on the horizon and 3rd place eminently achievable.

I must mention the fans ringing out with You’ll Never Walk Alone after O’Shea’s goal. It’s become far too cliché, but the best fans in the world, hands down.

Roll on Barca. Tuesday can’t get here quick enough.

02 March 2007

Liverpool v Manchester United 03.03.07

7:45am, available in the US on Setanta Sports.

Liverpool: 3rd place; 53 points out of 28 games
United: 1st place; 69 points out of 28 games

Last 4 meetings:
0-2 United (a) 10.22.06
1-0 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 02.18.06
0-1 United (a) 01.22.06
0-0 (h) 09.18.05

Last 3 games:
Liverpool: 4-0 Sheffield (h); 2-1 Barcelona (a); 1-2 Newcastle (a)
United: 3-2 Reading (a); 2-1 Fulham (a); 1-0 Lille (a)

Goalscorers (league; more than one goal):
Liverpool: Kuyt 9; Bellamy 7; Crouch 6; Gerrard 4; Alonso, Garcia 3; Gonzalez 2
United: Ronaldo 16; Rooney 10; Saha 8; Solskjaer 6; Scholes 5; Giggs 4; Fletcher, Vidic 3; Park 2

Referee: Martin Atkinson (Oh Martin, we’ve had fun together so far this season. Well, it’s far better than Graham Poll, who was originally scheduled, for sure.)

Guess at a squad:
Reina
Finnan Carra Agger Arbeloa
Gerrard Alonso Sissoko Riise
Kuyt Bellamy

Same exact line-up that went out at Barcelona. Why mess with what works?

I refuse to write this line-up with one eye on next Tuesday. Squad rotation and full fitness for the Champions League encounter hasn’t even crossed my mind. I would absolutely refuse to sacrifice anything in order to have a more rested first-team for Barcelona at Anfield. This game, even though the league is lost and the Champions League remains the final hope for a major trophy, is just as important. If this is the same team Rafa wants to go out against Barca, so be it. They can play 2 games in 4 days. Anything less than full-strength against United is completely unacceptable.

The midfield will be where this game is won, and it’s why Gerrard, Alonso, and Sissoko are all included. The supply line through Paul Scholes needs to be cut off and Carrick needs to be hassled as soon as he gets the ball. Frankly, all of United’s midfield needs to be harried as soon as they pick up possession. With time, United can tear through teams. This midfield line-up should give them as little time as possible. Given this, it’s going to be a massive game for Momo.

As for the strikers, while I clearly remember Crouchy’s goal winning the match for Liverpool last year, he’s the one left out here. I can’t see Liverpool giving all three strikers a run out given the emphasis needed to be placed on the midfield, and Kuyt and Bellamy will continue to be the first choice pairing. I also think those two have the best chance of troubling Ferdinand and Vidic. Given that Crouch has postponed surgery on his broken nose, he’ll have some part to play both here and against Barcelona (probably much more likely to start against Barca), but Kuyt and Bellamy win out for me, and Crouch will add another dimension off the bench.

My biggest question is can Arbeloa handle the pace of Cristiano Ronaldo? I’m fully aware the danger of giving a player his first league start against Manchester United, but with the lack of options on the left side, Arbeloa’s excellent performance against Barcelona, and the fact that Riise has been far better in big games in midfield, it seems the best option. Hopefully, Arbeloa can track one of the most dangerous players in the Prem as well as he did Messi. Because we all know how Ronaldo can change a game, not much else needs to be said on that.

It’s been far too long since Liverpool has beaten United in the league at Anfield. No matter the fact that progression in the Champions League is at stake next Tuesday. All focus will be on the task at hand: take three points off Satan incarnate. Nothing less will suffice.

01 March 2007

Prem Predictions 3/3 – 3/4

Newcastle v Middlesbrough, 10:00am, FSC: Newcastle had no midweek game, while it seems every single Boro cup tie has gone to extra-time, including penalties against West Brom on Tuesday. And the Geordies lost a close one to Wigan last time out that they'll want to avenge. Should be fun being a Northeast derby, but I’ll be very surprised if Boro comes away with even a point. Newcastle 2-1
Arsenal v Reading, 10:00am, Setanta: Even with all of Arsenal’s suspensions, they should still have enough to take Reading at the Emirates. As evidenced by Reading’s near-comeback after going 3-0 to Man Utd within 6 minutes on Tuesday, the Royals will never go down without a fight, but Arsenal’s first team is mostly rested and hungry after the kids played the Carling Cup final and in the loss to Blackburn Wednesday. Arsenal 3-1
Fulham v Aston Villa, 10:00am, Setanta Xtra: Look, it’s gonna happen. Carew and Young are going to make a difference in Villa’s season. I’ll keep saying it until I’m proved utterly wrong (even though it’s been over a month, that hasn’t happened yet, right?). Fulham rebounded last weekend far better than I thought, defended staunchly, and were unlucky to not come away with a point from United, but I still think Villa’s due for a good run. Villa 2-1
Manchester City v Wigan, 10:00am: Draw written all over it. Neither have been convincing, although Wigan’s been better of late and should have picked up enough points to see them clear of relegation. A couple of losses on the bounce could see them slide back into treacherous terrain, but I don’t see it happening Saturday. I do think we’ll be left wanting goals, however. 0-0
Sheffield United v Everton, 10:00am: Let’s hope Sheffield was utterly embarrassed by their performance last Saturday and will come out with guns blazing at Bramall Lane, where they’ve been very difficult to beat. Because it would greatly amuse me. 1-1
Watford v Charlton, 10:00am: It's wonderful to see Pardew back in form, as he was completely done over by West Ham and Eggert Magnusson. He cut a sad figure watching his new team embarrass his old one on Saturday, but Charlton is playing better and better as the season goes on. Having a healthy Darren Bent certainly doesn’t hurt matters either. Charlton 1-0
Portsmouth v Chelsea, 12:15pm, FSC: Pompey picked the wrong time to slip down the table. Fratton Park will be boisterous, but Chelsea should roll, whether John Terry is back or not. My big question is whether Drogba will hit 30 goals for the season on Saturday, or if we’ll be waiting one more week. And it's barely March. Yikes. Chelsea 3-0
Bolton v Blackburn, 8:35am Sunday, Setanta: Derby match, and usually a hotly-contested one. As with most Bolton matches, it won’t be the prettiest, but they’ll be looking to make up for a 4-1 shellacking at Tottenham. But Blackburn will be on a high from finally putting one over on Arsenal, and should be able to match Bolton step for step. 1-1
West Ham v Tottenham, 11:00am Sunday, FSC: West Ham’s boned. Dimitar Berbatov's good. That’s enough of a preview for this one. Tottenham 2-0

In case you’ve been living under a rock, Liverpool plays Man Utd Saturday at 7:45am, and I just might have something to say about it tomorrow.