22 September 2017

Liverpool at Leicester 09.23.17

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
0-2 Leicester (a; League Cup) 09.19.17
1-3 Leicester (a) 02.27.17
4-1 Liverpool (h) 09.10.16
0-2 Leicester (a) 02.02.16

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Leicester (a); 1-1 Burnley (h); 2-2 Sevilla (h)
Burnley: 2-0 Liverpool (h); 1-1 Huddersfield (a); 1-2 Chelsea (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané, Salah 3; Firmino 2; Sturridge 1
Leicester: Vardy 4; Okazaki 2; Maguire 1

Referee: Anthony Taylor (LFC History) (WhoScored)

Guess at a line-up:
Trent A-A Gomez Klavan Moreno
Wijnaldum Henderson Can
Salah Firmino Coutinho

Only one match left to go on Sadio Mané's suspension. That can't end soon enough. Coincidentally, Liverpool have lost, drawn, drawn, and lost in the matches since Mané's red card.

It's been a fun two weeks. Thankfully, Liverpool supporters – as is their inclination – have taken it in stride. Or the opposite. Whichever.

And to continue the fun, yesterday saw the less than welcome news that Lovren, Can, and Matip are all struggling with injury issues. Coming off a loss to the same opposition, on the same ground, albeit with a team that'll be very different tomorrow, it's not exactly ideal.

Emre Can at least trained on Thursday, but neither Lovren nor Matip did. That's, um, worrisome. That would mean Liverpool would be starting its third- and fourth-choice center-backs – the same two who started on Tuesday. In the sixth league match of the season. For all of the injury problems last season, there was never a time where both Matip and Lovren missed a league match, where Liverpool had to start Lucas and Klavan together.

I remain more forgiving than most, but I still need another reminder as to why Liverpool didn't buy a center-back this summer. I also remain hopeful that Matip will be available, more likely in my mind than Lovren given how that the latter's already missed two matches, but "hopeful" is very much a relative term.

With Can in contention, Liverpool seemingly have two options for the front six. The first is the front three we saw against Burnley, with Can left on the bench – or Wijnaldum, as Liverpool are playing away from Anfield. But more likely, and the guess above, is the most-frequently deployed midfield with Coutinho moving into the front three.

I am not especially inclined to see Firmino and Sturridge start together again. The results have been less than ideal. I admit that it's slightly unfair to phrase it that way rather than "I'd prefer Firmino did not play on the left, thank you" but the results don't really lie. If it's 4-3-3, Liverpool have not done well when those two start. 4-Diamond-2? Fine, although it ain't happening when Salah's available. 4-2-3-1? I'm willing if you are, and I'm honestly surprised we haven't seen it in so long a time. But not 4-3-3. Firmino needs to be central – read: "central" – even if at the expense of Sturridge.

Regardless of who starts, Liverpool have not had the best of times against Leicester since Klopp became manager. Liverpool have won both home matches – one narrowly, one emphatically – but have lost all three at the King Power Stadium. All three by two-goal margins – 0-2 and 1-3 in the league in the previous two seasons, and 0-2 in the League Cup earlier this week.

Leicester, especially on their own ground, are the archetypes of exactly how Liverpool often fail in "these types of matches." Leicester can press, better than they're given credit for, but Leicester are much more likely to sit deep and deny Liverpool, then look to counter against the high line. Liverpool do well, but sputter in the final third, then Liverpool concede against the run of play, then all fresh hell breaks loose. Leicester have done it to excellent effect against Liverpool more than once, even if Leicester are not the only ones.

Robert Huth and Matty James are out, but Jamie Vardy should be back in training after missing the midweek match. Which isn't the best news, as he's scored five goals in his last three games against Liverpool, including two in both of Leicester's away wins. Fuchs should also return from an eye injury.

Leicester's XI seems likely to be Schmeichel; Simpson, Morgan, Maguire, Fuchs; Mahrez, Ndidi, King, Albrighton; Okazaki, Vardy. Which features only three starters from Tuesday's meeting, although Okazaki obviously had an impact off the bench, and either Amartey – who was at right-back on Tuesday – or Iborra could play in midfield rather than King.

For all the complaints, life and Liverpool really aren't the worst. The underlying statistics – even with Mané absent, even with one or even both center-backs missing – suggest someone's due for a hammering. Ideally sooner rather than later. It's still early, this Liverpool side is better than its recent results, and Liverpool have played better than their recent results.

It could well be tomorrow – as happened when these sides met at Anfield in September last season. But, given precedent, I'll still fear the worst until Liverpool proves otherwise.


Anonymous said...

Hi Nate, thanks for this write up.
Do you know if the game will also stream on NBC Sports Live Extra?

nate said...

It should – anything NBC that's not NBC Sports Gold should – although I've never tried when it's on regular NBC