Liverpool v Hoffenheim 08.23.17

Liverpool lead 2-1 on aggregate

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Palace (h); 2-1 Hoffenheim (a); 3-3 Watford (a)
Hoffenheim: 1-0 Bremen (h); 1-2 Liverpool (h); 1-0 Rot-Weiß Erfurt (a)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 2; Alexander-Arnold, Firmino, Salah 1
Hoffenheim: Amiri, Kramaric, Uth 1

Referee: Daniele Orsato (ITA)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Trent A-A Matip Lovren Robertson
Can Henderson Milner
Salah Firmino Mané

I'd expect to see at least three of those rested against Crystal Palace to come back into the XI: Emre Can, Salah, and Alexander-Arnold. Possibly Lovren as well, although Klavan did play well, and seemingly made Matip look better as well, even if it was just one match. Given his showing on Saturday, Robertson has to be likely to keep his place.

And I'm tempted to think that James Milner will as well, as much for what Wijnaldum hasn't done as for what Milner did.

That key players were able to miss Saturday's match, while Liverpool still won all three points, is of massive benefit. But fatigue remains an issue. Matip, Henderson, Firmino, and Mané are the only four outfield players to start all three matches so far. Matip's played every minute; Mané's missed just one, substituted late a week ago; Firmino has been substituted late in each match so far; and Henderson missed the last half-hour in Germany. That's a lot of minutes played in 11 days. And I can't see any of those players left out tomorrow. Maybe I just don't want to envision any of them left out.

Oh, and Arsenal's on Sunday. As much as we'd like that not to play a role, that will play a role.

Hoffenheim rested players during their weekend league match as well. Similarly three-at-the-back, but 3-5-2 rather than 3-4-2-1, and five changes as well – at wing-back, central midfield, and up front.

Your guess as to their formation and personnel is almost certainly as good as mine, if not better. My best guess is similar to what we saw in Germany, with maybe one or two differences. So let's go with Baumann; Nordtveit, Vogt, Hübner; Kaderabek, Amiri, Demirbay, Zuber; Gnabry, Kramaric; Wagner. Hoffenheim have no new injuries or absentees since last week.

Regardless of XI, Hoffenheim will attack. Hoffenheim have to attack. At Anfield, they'll probably have less of the ball than in Germany. But they need at least two goals, whether or not Liverpool get one. Two goals with no reply will see them through. Two goals while Liverpool score one gets us extra time.

Hoffenheim have yet to score more than once in their three matches so far this season.

Chances are we're getting "soak up and counter" Liverpool. Defend deeper than usual, hoping to prevent the gaps and mistakes which lead to long-ball and counter-attack concessions. Try not to give away any set plays. And then burn them with pace, with Salah, with Mané. As tempting as it is to go at Hoffenheim from the opening whistle, that Liverpool getting one goal wouldn't dramatically change proceedings will play into Klopp's tactics.

There is no way to overstate the importance of tomorrow's match. It is the difference between the Champions League and the Europa League. The difference between a celebration and a return to the big kids' table, or an unwanted Thursday night slog through remote locations.

And it is too early in the season to suffer such a setback.