Showing posts sorted by relevance for query probert. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query probert. Sort by date Show all posts

27 January 2013

Liverpool 2-3 Oldham

Goals:
Smith 2' 45+3'
Suarez 17'
Wabara 48'
Allen 80'

Look at that front four. Look at it. It looks glorious, doesn't it? Three strikers, plus Sterling. Borini, Sturridge, and Suarez all start, Arsenal on Wednesday be damned. Oldham didn't stand a chance.

What? Oh, right. Midfield and defense matter too, huh? Well, shit.

That was a new low.

Oldham set a marker within 15 seconds when Robbie Simpson stamped on Joe Allen's ankle. Lee Probert also set a marker by not even considering a yellow card for the foul. There will be lots and lots of complaining about the referee to come, but make no mistake, Liverpool's performance merited absolutely nothing from this match.

Once again, this side simply cannot cope with physical, pressing, foul-happy opposition. And it has been an on-going issue all season long. Both matches against Stoke, especially at the Britannia. The loss to an Aston Villa side which hasn't won any of its subsequent league matches and went out of both cup competitions. The last 20 minutes against Mansfield. Liverpool are wholly unable to handle burly strikers; Matt Smith, playing non-league football less than two years ago, is just added to the list already containing Long, Lukaku, Kenwyne Jones, Jon Walters, Lacina Traore, Benteke, Carlton Cole, and probably a few others that I've repressed. And now this. It's not getting better. It just gets worse.

Let's just get all the referee fun out of the way. Coates was clearly fouled by Smith for the opener. Suarez pulled a goal back but had a potential go-ahead second debatably chalked off. Oldham's second, in that crucial period just before halftime, came from Jones' horrific mistake but started when Probert ignored a clear foul on Sturridge. Sterling should have won a penalty in the 54th, clipped by Winchester, unsurprisingly not given. Oldham got away with foul after foul after foul; the magic of the FA Cup: not penalizing lower league teams at home because they're lower league teams at home. Maybe it takes chutzpah to criticize refereeing after the way Liverpool won at Mansfield, but I've never made any pretense about being unbiased.

All that said, Liverpool's defense was abhorrent, Liverpool's midfield nonexistent. Sure, we were all drooling about seeing that front four in action going into the match, but in retrospect, starting with a little more strength in the middle of the park against a side comprised wholly of headers, elbows, and studs maybe might have been cleverer. It's a lot easier to make those declarations in retrospect.

After that early foul on Allen, Oldham pinned Liverpool inside their own half, taking advantage of Henderson and Allen's inability to get a foot on the ball, Coates' evidently still-drunk hangover, and Robinson and Wisdom's naivety. The goal came within two minutes when Liverpool couldn't clear a ball into the box, no one challenged M'Changama on Liverpool's right, and Smith climbed all over a static Coates to win the point-blank header.

Oldham continued in this vein for the first 15 minutes, with Liverpool lucky not to concede a second after Jones spilled Croft's shot (taking a studs-up kick in the chest from Simpson for his trouble – a foul that should have been Simpson's second yellow) followed by Baxter shooting narrowly wide from the top of the box.

Then Suarez singlehandedly struck, charging at Oldham's defense, playing a one-two with an Oldham defender who intercepted an attempted pass to Sturridge, slotting past Bouzanis. Liverpool could, should have had a second when Suarez appeared level on Henderson's 24th-minute free kick, barely getting a touch to deflect it in, but the linesman flagged. Sterling's tame left-footed shot at Bouzanis five minutes later marked the end of Liverpool's first of two decent spells, unable to score on what was Liverpool's best move of the match, highlighted by Borini's wonderful back heel to put the winger through on goal.

You'd expect Liverpool to assert dominance after canceling out Oldham's opener – which is exactly what happened when these sides met in this competition last season – but no such luck. All the initial problems remained. That massive gap between attack and defense you see in the above formation diagram was still a massive, debilitating gap. Baxter continued to find space between Liverpool's midfield and attack, driving Oldham forward against an over-matched Henderson and Allen. Both Baxter and Simpson put efforts just past the post from the space between Liverpool's midfield and defense.

Liverpool cruised past Oldham a year ago by scoring just before the interval, with Gerrard's penalty sealing the Latics' fate. Today, Oldham struck at that crucial time, again from Smith, and again through Probert ignoring a clear foul coupled with a jaw-dropping Liverpool mistake. Brad Jones has no excuse for spilling Wabara's tame, low cross. None. But he did, Croft reacted first to tap it towards Smith, and Smith tapped it into the net. Two goals, from a combined three yards out.

Maybe it's all different if Liverpool level almost immediately after the restart, charging down the left flank, Robinson with a perfect cross for Borini to slam home. He put the clear-cut chance wide of the near post. Two minutes later, Wabara put Oldham 3-1 up, a lead they'd never relinquish. Oldham had two chances for 4-1 before Rodgers could respond: another Baxter shot not far off and M'voto out-jumping Wisdom but heading wide.

Then came the cavalry: Gerrard and Downing for Borini and Wisdom, with Henderson shifting to right back. And then came incoherent Liverpool attack after incoherent Liverpool attack, a 30-minute "onslaught." Shelvey replaced Sterling soon after, but the tactics were clear. Throw as many attackers against the wall and hope something sticks. Something finally stuck, but that Liverpool got it within one in the 80th minute was as lucky as it was deserved. Liverpool had yet another corner cleared, but Allen's blast back in, albeit on-target, needed a wicked deflection off Baxter to find the back of the net. And until Allen's goal, Oldham actually had the best chance during this spell, as Simpson poked wide not realizing how much time he had after Smith flicked on Bouzanis' hoofed goal kick.

Gerrard crashed a shot against the crossbar in the 90th minute – the woodwork has been far quieter this season, but unsurprisingly reared its head at the worst possible time – but otherwise, all sound and fury signifying nothing. There was no pattern to Liverpool's play, no patient build-up, no intelligence or control, just hoof, hope, pray, and fail. Even in defeat, it's not what we've come to expect from Rodgers' side.

And now, Suarez, Sturridge, Henderson, Allen, and Wisdom have played a full frantic 90 minutes three days before a trip to Arsenal, with Gerrard also needed for 35 minutes off the bench. I'm not having that Liverpool looked past Oldham, expecting an easy match, ahead to Arsenal. Liverpool simply couldn't cope with Oldham's strength or desire. That would be the Oldham who are in 19th place in League One, who don't have the money to afford a first-team coach or a fourth stand for their ground. Rodgers' tactics were worryingly naive; maybe it's different with Lucas and Gerrard in midfield, but that was an inauspicious start for the Borini-Sturridge-Suarez-Sterling front four. Once again, it was an if-not-Suarez-and-Gerrard-than-no-one match, and it wasn't nearly enough today.

For each's promise, that wasn't a match for a Henderson-Allen midfield, while Coates, Wisdom, and Robinson all demonstrated just how inexperienced they are. However, I'm more disappointed in Liverpool's veterans: Skrtel once again looked lost without Agger, unable to cope with the 6'6" Smith, while Jones made a complete hash of Oldham's second (among other errors, both in claiming and distribution). You can forgive defensive errors made by 20, 19, and 18-year-olds. But it's unforgivable from proven veterans aged 28 and 30.

Each of Liverpool's dismal losses in the last month – against Villa, at Stoke, at United – has been followed by a supremely impressive reaction. But those reactions took place against Fulham, QPR, and Norwich. Arsenal, at Arsenal, will be a much more difficult – and vastly more important – proposition.

28 August 2010

Liverpool v West Brom 08.29.10

10am ET, not on live in the US. Delayed at 7pm on Fox Soccer Plus.

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 05.17.09
3-0 Liverpool (h) 11.08.08
2-0 Liverpool (a) 04.01.06
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.31.05

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Trabzonspor (a); 0-3 City (a); 1-0 Trabzonspor (h)
WBA: 2-0 Leyton Orient (a); 1-0 Sunderland (h); 0-6 Chelsea (a)

Referee: Lee Probert

Pretty sure this is the first time Probert's been in charge of a Liverpool game.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Agger
Lucas Gerrard
Babel Kuyt Jovanovic
Torres

I do wonder whether we'll see 4-4-2 for a second league game with Cole banned for two more matches, and if we do, it should work better against the likes of West Brom at home. But I can't get out of the habit of guessing 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1, even if Cole's suspension and Hodgson's seeming unwillingness to play Gerrard behind the striker makes it a tough line-up to predict.

If Gerrard doesn't play behind the striker – and he might if Meireles signs, but I'm struggling to see it tomorrow – the options are seemingly Kuyt, Maxi, or Pacheco. Kuyt infrequently played in the hole during Rafa's tenure, and is usually the target for Carragher and Reina's punts forward, but he'd have to be a lot better than he was on Thursday. Maxi's participation is doubtful for the same reason he was ruled out against Trabzonspor – gastroenteritis – but it's tempting to hope he's recovered, for the usual "do we really need Kuyt against the bus-parkers?" debate. And Pacheco could have a role to play after his intriguing cameo on Thursday and the news that he's extended his contract for two more years.

Guessing Babel on the right is due to guessing Kuyt in the middle and assuming Maxi's still out, but I certainly wouldn't mind Pacheco starting there. While it seems like Hodgson sees Babel as a striker, I'd like to see him get a chance on the right, where he's not limited to cutting in and blasting shots with his right foot. But if Maxi's healthy, Maxi should start. Torres should also be fit enough for a recall, rested during mid-week and evidently fit enough to make the Spain squad for next week's Euro qualifiers, in place of either Babel or Ngog.

As usual, I question whether Aurelio will be able to play successive games, which is why I'm guessing Agger – who should be over his concussion by now – at left back, although Kelly's obviously a possibility. Similar goes for Poulsen, who's still finding match fitness, which is another reason why I've guessed a Lucas/Gerrard midfield.

While a promoted side Liverpool would expect to beat no matter the circumstances, West Brom under Di Matteo will be a tougher proposition than in past meetings. More compact that Mowbray's team, the Baggies still look to attack, evidenced by how open their first game of the season was – a six-nil hammering at Stamford Bridge. They've somewhat bounced back in subsequent matches, narrowly beating Sunderland with a goal from debutant Peter Odemwingie before a league cup win at Leyton Orient. As well as Odemwingie, James Morrison and Graham Dorrens are both good players, while Chris Brunt can punish any side on set plays. And I'm always worried when Liverpool faces former keepers; Scott Carson had one memorable game, the win over Juventus, and has rarely impressed since, but former Reds (usually James and Friedel) often plays a blinder against Liverpool.

Liverpool certainly can't put the cart before the horse, but three points are an absolute must tomorrow. The first league win of the season is essential against the likes of West Brom; we can respect how they've grown under Di Matteo, and recognize that no game's ever easy, even against promoted sides and with the state Liverpool's in. But Liverpool absolutely have to take maximum points, continuing to build on the morale gained from progression past Trabzonspor.

08 December 2012

Liverpool at West Ham 12.09.12

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-3 West Ham (a) 02.27.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 11.20.10
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.19.10
3-2 Liverpool (h) 10.19.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Udinese (a); 1-0 Southampton (h); 1-2 Tottenham (a)
West Ham: 3-1 Chelsea (h); 0-1 United (a); 1-3 Tottenham (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 10; Agger, Enrique, Gerrard, Şahin, Skrtel, Sterling 1
West Ham: Nolan 5; Diame, Maiga, Noble 2; Carroll, Cole, Jarvis, O'Brien, Reid, Taylor, Tomkins, Vaz Te 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Liverpool won nine of the first ten matches that Lee Probert refereed, including a 3-0 victory against West Ham where – shock of shocks – Liverpool actually won and scored a penalty. And then lost the last two, against Fulham at the end of last season and Swansea in the League Cup six weeks ago.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Lucas
Gerrard Allen
Cole Shelvey Sterling

Pretty much the same side that narrowly beat Southampton, but with one teensy, tiny exception. Some guy named Luis Suarez is suspended.

It's the moment Liverpool have been waiting for and fearing. As Borini's still out for another month or so, the one striker in the squad's unavailable. Rodgers has at least been planning for this moment, using both Pacheco and Shelvey as a false nine in cup competition as well as handing debuts to Morgan and Yeşil.

But Morgan, Pacheco, and Yeşil all played in Friday's u21 match, making their participation against West Ham very unlikely. But it was unlikely anyway; Shelvey always seemed odds on favorite to assume the role, with the official site dropping more than hints in an interview published today. He is the best candidate for the role; Morgan and Yeşil are simply too raw and inexperienced against a seasoned resilient back line, Pacheco is clearly out-of-favor under yet another manager. Only four sides have conceded fewer goals than West Ham so far this season: Manchester City, Chelsea, Stoke, and Arsenal.

The de facto striker is one of three former West Ham academy players who could feature tomorrow, along with Johnson and Joe Cole. The latter *could* be the answer to the hole on the flank, but if Joe Cole's the answer, I'm not sure I want to know the question.

Whoever joins Shelvey and Sterling in the front three will have a huge role to play. Liverpool will need help if they've any hope of breaching the Hammers' back four: will need runners in the box, wingers cutting inside, and support support support. Cole might not be the worst idea in the world, linking up well with Shelvey against Young Boys and with a point to prove against his old club, but I still question his abilities. After the last two-plus seasons, I can't help it.

The other options are Downing, Assaidi, Suso, and Enrique. I think we can cross the first of those four off the list, after that performance against Udinese to go along with all of those other performances. With Wisdom out of favor since his injury, Enrique seems more likely to play in defense, but the 19-year-old could come back into the side with Johnson resuming a left-back berth. Either Taylor or Jarvis – more likely the latter – will challenge Liverpool's right back, although both like to stick wide and deliver crosses, something that Wisdom should be able to cope with. Assaidi's been rarely seen recently, while Suso hasn't started a league match since being hauled off in the 36th minute against Wigan. Maybe Joe Cole's not such a bad option after all. And no, I can't believe I just wrote that sentence.

Last time Liverpool faced West Ham, the side was in its purple patch under Dalglish, on an eight-match unbeaten run. Liverpool stuck with the three-at-the-back formation which had worked so well against both Stoke and Chelsea. And Liverpool were comprehensively beaten. Granted, both are vastly different sides now, but that recollection makes me think that a shift to the three-man defense we saw against Everton, Anzhi, and Chelsea is extremely unlikely, even with Suarez absent.

Meanwhile, the midfield and defense seem fairly set in stone. Gerrard, Allen, and Lucas in the middle, with Liverpool needing its captain to supplement the attack. There's also a marginal case for playing him as the false nine, but that seems a bridge too far. Either way, Gerrard has an excellent scoring record against West Ham, beating Jaaskelainen more than any other current Premiership keeper and scoring more goals against West Ham than all but two other clubs (Villa and Everton). There's a small chance Henderson could replace Allen if the latter's fatigued after his exertions against Udinese, but the Welshman's barely missed a moment of Premiership action so far this season. And Lucas' indescribable importance between the lines will be incredibly important against Kevin Nolan, West Ham's best player so far this season.

As said earlier, Wisdom may come in for Enrique, allowing the latter to play further forward, but otherwise, Skrtel, Agger, Johnson, and Reina are certain starters in defense. Skrtel will have to mark Carlton Cole closely, a job he seems tailor-made for, while Agger will pick up Nolan on his runs into the penalty box. Liverpool have kept four clean sheets in the six matches since Reina's return from injury, conceding two in the games against Young Boys and Tottenham. All four of the opponents that Liverpool held scoreless – Wigan, Swansea, Southampton, and Udinese – barely had a sniff at goal.

As for West Ham, Sam Allardyce team is Sam Allardyce team: hard-working, physical, direct, tough to beat. And much higher in the table than originally predicted. Nolan is the hub of everything good in attack, Diame has been a crucial addition in midfield (and has scored some crackers from outside the box), and Winston Reid's dramatically improved as a center-back under Big Sam. The starting XI will almost certainly be Jaaskelainen; Demel, Collins, Reid, O'Brien; Noble, Diame; O'Neil, Nolan, Jarvis; Cole. The only possible changes are on the flanks – Taylor or Benayoun for Jarvis or O'Neil. Like Liverpool, West Ham have three ex-opposition players on their books, but Carroll's both injured and ineligible, Benayoun's a more likely substitute than starter, and Alou Diarra's made just one league appearance so far this season.

It's becoming boringly predictable and depressing, yet I can't help but remind that Liverpool haven't won consecutive league matches in nearly a year, since beating Villa and QPR on December 10th and 18th last season. Liverpool have won just one of seven away matches in the league this season, the 5-2 win at Norwich. That win remains the only time Liverpool have won away against a side above them in the table in more than a calendar year; Norwich were in 17th on three points, Liverpool 18th with two points at kickoff that day.

Recent history is against Liverpool tomorrow, and along with Stoke away in 17 days, this will probably be Liverpool's toughest match this month, especially since Liverpool will be without its talisman. It'll also be a sign of how far Liverpool have progressed recently. This will be a street fight, and Liverpool will be without its street-fighting man. It's a test of both ability and character. Despite incremental improvements, we've still needed to see more of both from Liverpool this season.

29 December 2011

Liverpool v Newcastle 12.30.11

2:45pm ET, live in the US on FSC.

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (h) 05.01.11
1-3 Newcastle (a) 12.11.10
3-0 Liverpool (h) 05.03.09
5-1 Liverpool (a) 12.28.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Wigan (a); 2-0 Villa (a); 1-0 QPR (h)
Newcastle: 2-0 Bolton (a); 2-3 West Brom (h); 0-0 Swansea (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Own Goal 3; Adam, Bellamy, Carroll, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson 1
Newcastle: Ba 14; Best 3; R Taylor 2; Sh Ameobi, Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Gosling, Jonas 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Terrified of jinxing it, but since I bash referees here all the time, unfairly or not, probably should mention that Probert is one of my favorites. Please keep it that way.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Downing Henderson Spearing Maxi
Carroll Bellamy

And to think, in Monday's match review, I hoped that Suarez would soon get a rest, both for his and Liverpool's sake. Thankfully, the FA has everyone's best interests at heart. Due to Suarez's non-verbal "outburst" against Fulham, he's suspended for Friday's match.

With the Uruguayan absent, Carroll seemingly has to start against his former club – something he was unable to do in this fixture last May. Whether it's with Bellamy or Kuyt or, less likely, up front on his own is a far tougher question. Aside from Carroll's penalty miss, one of seemingly hundreds for Liverpool so far this season, the Carroll-Bellamy pairing played well in its last outing, against Chelsea in the Carling Cup.

The other lineup question pertains to central midfield. Maxi and Downing played well against Blackburn; there's no need to change either without fitness concerns. Conversely, Liverpool's central midfield was incredibly poor against Blackburn. Adam was the worst offender, and his unlucky own goal is irrelevant to that opinion. More important was that he and Henderson failed to look a pairing in the slightest. They were two central midfielders ostensibly playing in the same area, with only a general idea of what the other was trying to accomplish. Small wonder Liverpool looked so disjointed at times. Liverpool have multiple options for rectifying that problem: Gerrard could join the duo or replace either – although I suspect he'll have one more appearance off the bench before starting – or Spearing could replace one of the two or Shelvey could play behind the striker as against Aston Villa. Regardless, something needs to change. Cabaye and Tiote are miles upon miles better than Nzonzi-Dunn-Pedersen or McCarthy-Diame.

Finally, there also seems no need to change the back-line unless fitness demands it. If Johnson-Skrtel-Agger-Enrique start, it'd be the 10th league game in a row where Liverpool played the same back five. That's implausible consistency, and it's no coincidence the team has only conceded three goals during that 810-minute stretch. Long may it continue.

That Newcastle is just one point behind Liverpool despite winning just one of their last seven – Monday's trip to Bolton – losing four and drawing two, demonstrates just how strong the club's start to the season was. Or it's a sign that Liverpool have been wholly unable to take advantage of competitors' setbacks. Maybe both. Newcastle's descent from third on November 20 to seventh has coincided with injuries to both central defenders. Coloccini's fit again, but Steven Taylor will miss the rest of the season after tearing his Achilles. Marveaux's also out with a groin injury (surprise, surprise), while Dan Gosling is suspended.

Despite the recent slide, Demba Ba is still scoring like the world's really ending in 2012, Cabaye and Tiote have made an excellent midfield partnership, and both Obertan and Jonas could reap the benefits if Johnson and Enrique bomb forward just once too often. Ben Arfa was excellent off the bench in Newcastle's last match at Bolton; I expect he'll start on Friday, with Newcastle more a 4-4-1-1/4-5-1 than the more-frequently-seen 4-4-2 with Ba and Best/Ameobi up top. Krul; Simpson, Williamson, Coloccini, R Taylor; Obertan, Tiote, Cabaye, Jonas; Ben Arfa; Ba.

None of the Newcastle players who scored against Liverpool nearly a year ago are still with the club: Nolan's at West Ham, Barton's at QPR, and you all know where Andy Carroll ended up. I'm sure you remember the 1-3 loss; that followed up with 0-1 v Wolves and 1-3 at Blackburn were the blows which finally broke the doddering camel.

Meanwhile, Newcastle haven't scored at Anfield since December 2004, a Kluivert opener in a 3-1 Liverpool win. Liverpool have won all six meetings since conceding that goal, scoring 16 without reply. It's one of the best recent records against any club in the division.

But this is the best Newcastle side Liverpool have faced since then, no matter recent woes. The template for beating them remains the template to Liverpool's improvement. Keep doing the same successful things in defense, but put the ball in the back of the net slightly more often.

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Meta FYI: I'll be gone through the weekend immediately following the match. Happy New Year's and whatnot. I will try to finish the match review before leaving town, but no promises. Then radio silence until Monday.

30 October 2012

Liverpool v Swansea 10.31.12

4pm ET, not on live anywhere as far as I can tell. And so far, I can't find any sign of streams. If something shows up, you'll probably hear about it on Twitter. I'm skeptical. And if there are no streams, there will be no match review. We'll find out tomorrow, I guess.

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Swansea (a) 05.13.12
0-0 (h) 11.05.11
8-0 Liverpool (home; FA Cup) 01.09.90
0-0 (a; FA Cup) 01.06.90

Earlier Rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 West Brom (a)
Swansea: 3-2 Crawley Town (a); 3-1 Barnsley (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Everton (a); 1-0 Anzhi (h); 1-0 Reading (h)
Swansea: 0-1 City (a); 2-1 Wigan (h); 2-2 Reading (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Şahin, Shelvey 3; Downing, Gerrard 2; Borini, Coates, Johnson, Skrtel, Sterling, Wisdom 1
Swansea: Michu 7; Graham 3; Dyer, Moore, Routledge 2; Monk, Pablo, Rangel 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Terrified of jinxing it, but Probert is one of my favorite referees in the division.

Guess at a line-up:
Jones
Wisdom Coates Carragher Robinson
Henderson Şahin
Shelvey
Downing Yesil Assaidi

Tomorrow's XI will probably look a lot like Liverpool's side in the last round against West Brom.

Reina and Johnson are definitely out, each attempting to recover from their respective injuries in time for Sunday's match against Newcastle. Similarly, I expect that Liverpool's biggest names will finally be given a rest – as hoped for prior to last week's Europa League tie. Suarez seemingly can't start again. Gerrard seemingly can't start again. In fact, most players who featured against Everton, especially if they also played against Anzhi, probably shouldn't start again. Sunday's match was simply too ferocious, too draining.

That said, Johnson's injury, along with Wisdom's substitution on Sunday, means the 19-year-old is odds on for a fifth consecutive start. Flanagan, reportedly back from injury, may also be in contention, but he hasn't seen a minute of action this season, limited to one bench appearance in the first leg against Hearts. In theory, Carragher's another alternative on the right, but, I mean, really? Let's not go there. He and Coates will most likely resume their second-choice partnership, allowing Rodgers to rest both Skrtel and Agger. Robinson should reclaim the left-back role after Enrique's busy performance against Everton.

Şahin is another who could also feature from the beginning despite starting on Sunday. Hauled off at halftime, seemingly unable to cope with the frenetic "is this really football?" atmosphere, the midfielder continues to need match practice to adjust to the English game. Henderson looks certain to be involved – although I wrote that before the Anzhi match as well – while Shelvey seems the most likely third. Pacheco is on the periphery, involved in the first Europa League match as well as the last round of this competition, and could play as the most-advanced midfielder, on the flanks, or as a false nine. And Joe Cole's still kicking around Melwood somewhere. Wherever you are in the world, you're likely to hear me scream if Gerrard's involved, and similar goes for Joe Allen, despite the attraction of starting him against his former club.

Like in the Europa League, I expect to see Downing and Assaidi on the flanks. And, if Suarez is finally rested, it'd seemingly have to be Yesil up front, as against West Brom earlier in this competition. Pacheco as a false nine, as against Young Boys, is a more remote possibility, but wasn't a successful experiment in Switzerland. That the NextGen Series also takes place tomorrow complicates matters. The other young forward who's seen action with the first team – Adam Morgan – is part of the NextGen squad. Yesil is not, nor is over-age Michael Ngoo, who hasn't trained with the first team as far as I know. Of course, Suso, Sterling, and Wisdom are also eligible, but I doubt they'll be involved in any of the NextGen matches given their importance to the senior squad.

Still ahead of Liverpool in the table, if just, Swansea have tailed off after a fast start in the league, losing three in a row without scoring after taking seven points and scoring 10 goals in the opening three matches. Laudrup has steadied the ship since, with a slightly unfortunate draw against Reading, a victory over Wigan, and a narrow, disappointing loss to Manchester City on Saturday.

Swansea played slightly weakened sides in its two earlier League Cup matches, against Barnsley and Crawley Town, mixing usual first-team starters with a handful of bench and reserve players. I imagine they'll do similar tomorrow, but with one or two regulars probably more likely to feature. I do believe Michael Laudrup when he says that there's no added motivation by facing Brendan Rodgers' side, but also know that playing Liverpool in cup competition is usually extra motivation for any club. We see it this season in the Europa League, we've seen it in the past in both domestic cup competitions.

At the very least, there will be two enforced changes. Starting goalkeeper Michel Vorm is injured, while right-back Angel Rangel is suspended. Ashley Williams is also doubtful with an ankle sprain, while left-back Neil Taylor is a long-term absentee. Swansea will almost certainly stick with the 4-3-3/4-1-2-3 formation Rodgers used last season and Laudrup uses in this, even if the Dane has made Swansea slightly more direct. If forced to guess, I'll go for Tremmel; Tiendalli, Chico, Monk, Davies; Gower, Britton, Michu; Routledge, Graham, Dyer as the XI, but also want to emphasize that is little more than a guess. Michu, if he plays – whether as the #9 or as the most-advanced midfielder – will obviously be the biggest threat, responsible for seven goals and an assist in his ten Swansea matches.

This competition is probably last on Liverpool's list of priorities, and that it's Rodgers' first match against his former side will dominate the headlines. Still, even with a heavily changed line-up, Liverpool will look to progress in the competition, if only to ensure that the above players continue to have opportunities to develop and to prove their worth. Suso seizing his chances after appearances against Young Boys and West Brom is evidence that there are places to be won. Despite Liverpool's shallow squad, the match against Anzhi (and Udinese, to a lesser extent) demonstrates that Rodgers values Liverpool's progression in the Europa League; the Capital One Cup is where he'll look to experiment most often. And, of course, the sooner that Liverpool put the memory of Sunday fully behind them, the better it'll be for all involved.

24 January 2014

Liverpool at Bournemouth 01.25.14

7:45am ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last four head-to-head:
4-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.30.68
0-0 (a; FA Cup) 01.27.68
4-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.12.27
1-1 (a; FA Cup) 01.08.27

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Villa (h); 5-3 Stoke (a); 2-0 Oldham (h); 2-0 Hull (h)
Bournemouth: 1-1 Watford (h); 4-1 Burton (h); 0-3 Wigan (a)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 22; Sturridge 13; Gerrard 5; Sterling 4; Coutinho, Henderson, Skrtel 2; Agger, Aspas, Flanagan, Moses, Sakho 1
Bournemouth: Grabban 11; Pitman 7; Ritchie 5; Pugh 4; Fraser 3; O'Kane 2; Arter, Cook, Elphick, Rantie 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Jones
Flanagan Skrtel Toure Cissokho
Gerrard Henderson
Aspas L Alberto Moses
Suarez

So, who's fit? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Oh, hey, and there's a Merseyside Derby on Tuesday.



Liverpool literally have no alternatives in defense. Skrtel and Toure are the only two available center-backs, Cissokho is the only available first-team left-back, unless Rodgers wants to hand Brad Smith a second appearance (and first start) despite an already makeshift back four. Flanagan's only just returned from injury, and may not even be fit enough to start; if that's the case, Sterling seemingly has to play right-back. Henderson would be an option there, but as he and Gerrard are the only two healthy central midfielders, he'll almost certainly be used there. We won't mention that's the same central midfield which wholly failed to operate against Aston Villa and that Bournemouth deploy a similar formation. Nope. Not mentioning it.

Liverpool at least have the ability to rotate the attacking players. Whether Rodgers will actually do so is the question. Coutinho, Sterling, and Sturridge seemingly need to be rested or protected, the former two over-worked of late, the latter only recently back from injury. I'd suggest protecting Suarez as well, primarily because of Tuesday's match, but he's one of those rare players that rarely need a rest. Aspas, Alberto, Moses, and Ibe are all options – out-of-favor options for the most part, but options nonetheless. If Suarez starts, he'll probably be joined by the first three, whether Liverpool play 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2. If Suarez is rested, those four will probably be the front four.

Bournemouth are currently 16th in the Championship, seven points outside of the relegation zone. They've the second leakiest defense in the division, conceding 45 goals in the 26 matches so far this season. Only Millwall have allowed more. Bournemouth's last league win came on Boxing Day against Yeovil, drawing three and losing once since. That 3-0 win over Yeovil was Bournemouth's only clean sheet in the last 20 matches, the previous coming on September 17th. Something Liverpool (and its fans) came sympathize with.

Eddie Howe has has started nearly the same XI in the last five league matches. 4-3-3: Camp; Francis, Elphick, Ward, Daniels; Surman, O'Kane, Arter; Ritchie, Grabban, Pugh. Fraser has come in for Pugh on the left wing twice, McQuoid for Arter in midfield once, but those have been the only changes in the league line-ups since Boxing Day. Howe did slightly rotate his side for the previous FA Cup round, but I doubt he'll do so tomorrow.

As against Oldham, I won't embarrass us both by pretending to be familiar with Bournemouth's players. Defender Elliott Ward and midfielder Andrew Surman have both faced Liverpool before while at Norwich, with Ward starting in Suarez's first hat-trick, Surman in Suarez's second. Goalkeeper Lee Camp has drifted around the lower divisions and a couple of Premiership clubs for a decade; he's never faced Liverpool, but has probably been on the bench in a match or two for Derby, Norwich, or West Brom. Either Grabben or Pitman will start up front – but probably not both, given Howe's preferred formation – with the two responsible for half of Bournemouth's goals.

It sounds regrettably patronizing, but as is always the case in these matches, this will be one of Bournemouth's biggest fixtures of the season. And it'll be in front of their own fans. As Liverpool's learned, primarily against Mansfield and Oldham last season, that can be a recipe for disaster.

Everton on Tuesday is a vastly, indescribably more important match. But this one comes first, and no matter who starts, Liverpool need to focus on the task at hand before thoughts turn to the derby.

09 December 2012

Liverpool 3-2 West Ham

Goals:
Johnson 11'
Noble 36' (pen)
Gerrard OG 43'
J Cole 76'
Collins OG 79'

From glee to despair to horror to astonishment to elation to anxiety to euphoria. Sports are amazing and terrible and amazing.

It's Liverpool's first comeback win in the league since December 30, 2011. Liverpool's first back-to-back league wins since December 18, 2011. Liverpool's first win after a Europa League fixture this season. Liverpool scored three goals without Suarez involved, including Liverpool's first league goal after the 75th minute, and then another to win the match. Liverpool are in the top 10 and four points off fourth. Joe Cole came up with the crucial equalizer.

It is a literal barrel of monkeys that Liverpool got off its back. Sometimes you just have to suspend disbelief and go along for the ride.

Liverpool couldn't have started better, propelled by mathematical genius Glen Johnson. West Ham's burly threat – hoof and cross, hoof and cross – led to a couple of frightening moments, but Johnson bossed the opening minutes, fittingly scoring a jaw-dropping thunderbolt in the 11th, validating my "always play players against their former club" theory. After reaching rock-bottom in the next 30-45 minutes, there'd be more validation to come.

But West Ham's pressing, pushing Jarvis further and further up the flank until Johnson was less effective, Carlton Cole's ability holding up long balls, and Diame's overall midfield dominance turned the tide. Liverpool certainly weren't helped by a 26th-minute injury to Jose Enrique, replaced by Joe Cole with Downing moving to left-back, but the home side made it hard for Liverpool to keep the ball or build on the early goal, and to be fair, an equalizer always looked likely. Because, well, Liverpool.

Of course, there are valid complaints about how easily the equalizer came, yet another harsh decision from a referee, with Allen punished for a handball despite his arms near his body and the shot from less than a yard away. There was nothing he could do about it. Probert still pointed to the spot. What's most infuriating is that you know Liverpool wouldn't get that call, proven by yet another stonewall penalty ignored in second-half injury time. But we'll get to that.

Noble slotted home the spot kick despite Reina guessing the right way, and with Liverpool on tilt, West Ham scored a second just before the interval. A soft Skrtel foul, a free kick spread wide to Jarvis on the flank, Jarvis' cross bulleted into Liverpool's net by their own captain, arguably fouled by Cole in the process. Just another day in the life for Liverpool.

It's no exaggeration to suggest the first 30 or so minutes of the second half were beyond dire. Liverpool looked awful, completely useless in attack and capable of conceding on the counter at any moment. West Ham vacuumed up Liverpool's ineffective attack and thumped it long for Cole, who held up possession before a last-ditch Liverpool tackle. It was hopeless and infuriating and par for the course.

Until the 72nd minute, that is, when two successive events comprehensively changed the game. Diame, hands down the best player on the pitch, pulled up with a serious hamstring injury, replaced by center-back James Tomkins as a makeshift midfielder. Rodgers responded by sending on Henderson for the tiring Lucas. Those two changes seesawed the midfield battle, and it's no coincidence Liverpool scored within five minutes.

Both of Liverpool's scapegoats were heavily involved in the equalizer, with a large dash of Sterling brilliance. Downing intercepted yet another West Ham hoof, starting the attack which saw Henderson shuttling through midfield before spreading play wide to Sterling. The winger worked an excellent one-two with Shelvey, given far too much space between the lines, before finding Cole with a note-perfect throughball. The former West Ham player made an outstanding run from deep to split the center-backs, dropped his shoulders to feint his marker, and fired first time into the far corner. Absolutely unbelievable. Always play former players against their old club. Always.

We almost got the trifecta three minutes later. Another strong Henderson run after patient buildup from Downing, Allen, and Cole, getting behind the left-back before crossing into a dangerous area, redirected into the West Ham net by James Collins rather than Jonjo Shelvey – although it initially looked like it came from the former academy Hammer. Ecstasy. Sheer ecstasy. Because it's Liverpool, the last minutes were nauseatingly nerve-wracking, requiring some crucial clearances from all four defenders and a free kick from an incredibly dangerous position thankfully ballooned by Maiga. But Liverpool bossed the final five minutes (!!!) of injury time, running down the clock, mainly through Sterling's excellent work, and were denied a clear penalty when Reid felled Shelvey from 10 yards out. Surprise, surprise. We really are gonna have a party when Liverpool win a penalty.

I'm still not sure how Liverpool won that game, although the Henderson/Diame moments had an awful lot to do with it. Still, Liverpool looked lost, demoralized and disconsolate. Rodgers' substitutions initially baffled, and yet it all worked out in the end. It's been far too long since that happened.

It's incredibly tempting to get carried away by the euphoria. There's the comeback, the back-to-back wins, a first win over a team in the top 10, a first away league comeback since the start of the 2009-10 season. Liverpool desperately, desperately needed a win like this: a battling, never-say-die away performance where fortitude and self-belief rather than talent took the three points. The manager's suffered some criticism – some due, some undue – and while Rodgers changes were criticized at the time, both Cole and Downing (and Henderson) proved crucial to Liverpool's victory.

What it is is an identifiable step forward. One small step, not necessarily a giant leap. We needed to see a performance like this – it's concrete proof of progress and should be a massive confidence boost for all involved – but at the end of the day, it's another milestone, not the finish line.

26 August 2011

Liverpool v Bolton 08.27.11

12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 01.01.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 10.31.10
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.30.10
3-2 Liverpool (h) 08.29.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Exeter (a); 2-0 Arsenal (a); 1-1 Sunderland (h)
Bolton:2-1 Macclesfield (h); 2-3 City (h); 4-0 QPR (a)

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Agger Enrique
Lucas Adam
Kuyt Suarez Downing
Carroll

I imagine there will be few holdovers from the Exeter match, despite the strength of that line-up. If pressed, I'd guess that only Suarez, Adam, and Reina will start for the second consecutive match.

Other than Suarez's inclusion, it's basically the same team which beat Arsenal last week. Adding Suarez while swapping Kuyt for Henderson should strengthen the side. The ex-Sunderland midfielder's been in for some unfair criticism, slower to adapt than Adam, Enrique, or Downing – which shouldn't be a surprise given where the four currently are in their careers. But Kuyt offers more attacking fluency, even at Anfield against a bruising mid-table side, and he and Downing switched flanks to decent effect a week ago. Bolton's fullbacks – the doubtful Steinsson and Paul Robinson – should be there for the taking. Maxi could be a decent option as well, helping to stretch and unlock an often-compact Bolton defense, with Kuyt on the bench as a utility attacker. With Ngog's exit inevitable, Liverpool are lacking in reserve strikers at the moment, but after 90 minutes on Wednesday with Kuyt rested, the Dutchman seems much more likely than Rodriguez.

Call the formation whatever you want: 4-2-2-2 or 4-2-3-1. It's not incredibly important with the above personnel, especially in the front four. Carroll will drop deep, Suarez will roam across the width and breadth of the final third, Downing and whomever (probably Kuyt) will switch flanks. Ideally, both Enrique and Kelly – probably still in place of the recovering Johnson – will join the attack more often than either were allowed at the Emirates.

Owen Coyle's continued his ascent with Bolton, who were excellent in their first two games – rampant at QPR and unlucky to come away with nothing from hosting Mercenary City. Klasnic and Davies, particularly Davies, are the types of strikers who make me nervous when facing Liverpool's back line. Davies is all elbows, head, and shoulders, perpetually dangerous in the air (which Carragher, Agger, and Skrtel aren't), while Klasnic is one of those poachers who pops up with a bolt from absolutely nowhere when it's least excepted – i.e. his spectacular volley against City. That clip also shows the contributions of left-winger Petrov, who has the potential to give Kelly fits. If he's up for it. And it's usually impossible to tell if he'll be up for it until the whistle blows. Eagles, on the other flank, is another tricky winger happy to stay wide and deliver crosses. Finally, a midfield of Muamba and Reo Coker will be ubiquitously combative, to put it as nicely as possible – with the former likely to stick close to whichever forward drops deep – requiring Lucas and Adam to intelligently join the attack as they did against Arsenal.

As with Liverpool's last league opponents, injuries haven't been kind to Bolton, especially at the aforementioned fullback position. Steinsson is doubtful with a foot bruise, while Tyrone Mears, Sam Ricketts, and Marcos Alonso are all out. As is American Stuart Holden, still recovering from the ACL tear caused by Jonny Evans' completely hopeless haplessness.

I do worry about Liverpool's increasing reliance on its little Uruguayan. Suarez has three of Liverpool's six goals this season, and played a large part creating in the other three. The last time the Reds scored without Suarez on the pitch was in February against Sparta Prague, 17 games ago. At home against Bolton, a side that Liverpool's beaten in the last nine meetings and which hasn't won at Anfield since 2003 (in the League Cup), marks an excellent opportunity for others in the team to prove their importance.

27 August 2011

Liverpool 3-1 Bolton

Goals:
Henderson 15'
Skrtel 52'
Adam 53'
Klasnic 90+2'

And it should have been more. Potential in action. The frightening thing is that there's still plenty of room for improvement.

Liverpool's formation looked more like the 4-2-2-2 that faced Sunderland at Anfield rather than the 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 at Arsenal. There's so much interchange among the front four, even the front five, that the above diagram doesn't do the side justice, let alone writing it up as I used to do. Suarez and Kuyt alternated dropping deep and floated across the entirety of Bolton's half. Henderson came inside, especially when Bolton somehow had possession, making it more of a midfield three. Downing both stayed wide to cross and cut in, providing space for Enrique to over-lap more than in the last two matches.

And as against Sunderland, it didn't take long to convert early dominance into a goal, with Henderson wrapping up a wonderful team strike in the 15th. Suarez again played creator, with an inch-perfect deep cross nearly setting up Downing's first for the club, well-saved by Jaaskelainen. But Kuyt was quickest and strongest, reacting first to lay off for Henderson, brilliantly cutting onto his left and nestling the ball into the net. It was an excellent example of what each offers: Suarez's peerless creativity, Downing's attacking guile, Kuyt's workrate and selfless, and Henderson's versatility and ability to make dangerous runs into the box.

Suarez (twice) and Kuyt had chances to get a quick second; their failure to do so begat another (more frightening) parallel with the Sunderland match. Martin Kelly's 30th-minute injury – hamstring, again – also threatened to throw a wrench into the era of good feelings, forcing a rejig with Skrtel at right back without Flanagan on the bench. Truthfully, Bolton had responded earlier, with Petrov's blast from nowhere stinging Reina's palms and then thanks to Coyle's intelligent change, bringing on the more-dynamic Mark Davies for Muamba. But other than Petrov's dangerous corner nearly setting up Cahill, Liverpool remained comfortable.

Unlike against Sunderland, half-time only proved beneficial to the home side. Eight minutes later, Liverpool were three up as Adam assisted and scored within a minute. First, one of those renowned corners found Skrtel's bullet head (beating Zat Knight far too easily), his second set play assist in three games. Then, he proved his right leg's for more than standing, charging forward from Kuyt's centered pass and placing a shot past Jaaskelainen.

Three quick efforts followed – Kuyt headed onto the roof of the net, Suarez shot into the side-netting, and Downing's strike was deflected wide – but Liverpool were increasingly content to contain and counter. Suarez nearly ran his legs off in search of the goal he felt harshly denied; in addition to an earlier non-call, when Knight evidently tripped Suarez (initially looking like Suarez had dived), Probert missed a second possible penalty and a clear back pass, both prompted by the Uruguayan's devilish movement. That Suarez stomped off in the 78th without scoring his third in three games seems wholly unfair, but he wasn't even at his best today. Possibly the best player on the pitch. But not his best.

Carroll replaced his frequent strike partner, while Maxi came on for Henderson. Another flurry followed, with Carroll caught flat-footed on Downing's whipped cross, Kuyt attempting to play Downing in instead of controlling and shooting, and Skrtel (!!!) seeing two shots blocked on his charging overlap. But with both sides seemingly happy to just go home, Carragher's unfortunate mistake allowed Bolton a last-second consolation, somehow putting Petrov through before his recovery tackle set Klasnic up perfectly. Reina, unsurprisingly, was livid.

Bolton, poor on the day, were truly lucky to only lose by two. We saw more of the tantalizing moments previewed against Sunderland and Arsenal. Suarez continues to be one of the most dangerous players in the league. Lucas is indescribably important, again brilliant in scything down potential attacks. Henderson was much improved, with a well-taken goal added to better movement and touch; his versatility, switching from the right side in the 4-2-2-2 to the middle in the 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 we saw against Arsenal, will continue to be underrated for some time. And special mention goes to Skrtel, almost completely untroubled at right back, scoring on a set play and even joining the attack on occasion, notably those bruising moments ten minutes from time. That helps dispel those memories of Martin at right back three years ago in Middlesbrough.

The elephant in the room remains Liverpool's largest player (at least until Seb Coates signs sooner rather than later). Once again, Liverpool simply looked better without Carroll in the side, with the added handicap of the striker off the pace after coming off the bench. His adaptation will require patience, but at his best (which we've seen in maybe one match), he'll continue to offer something few players in the Premiership are capable of.

Otherwise, it was a remarkable performance from the home side. Kelly's injury, as with Meireles' against Exeter, is the lone concern. And as against Exeter, the consolation, while unfortunate, can be explained away as a one-off mistake – which we hope to see no more of. Progress, especially from new players, is coming quicker than expected.

That Liverpool are top of the league after three games matters little. However, that Liverpool have more points after three games than they did after eight games last year matters much more.

26 January 2013

Liverpool at Oldham 01.27.13

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Previous Meetings:
5-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.06.12
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.15.94
2-1 Liverpool (h) 10.16.93
2-3 Oldham (a) 05.05.93

Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Mansfield Town (a)
Oldham: 3-2 Nottingham Forest (a); 3-1 Doncaster (h); 2-0 Kidderminster (a)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-0 Norwich (h); 1-2 United (a); 2-1 Mansfield (a)
Oldham: 0-1 Notts County (a); 1-2 Coventry (a); 0-2 Brentford (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 20; Gerrard 6; Shelvey 5; Downing, Şahin, Sturridge 3; Agger, Cole, Henderson, Johnson, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Borini, Coates, Enrique, Wisdom 1
Oldham: Baxter 11; Derbyshire 6; Smith 4; Simpson 3; M'Changama, Montano, Mvoto 2; Byrne, Furman, Grounds, Slew, Tarkowski, Taylor, Wabara 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Jones
Wisdom Skrtel Coates Robinson
Henderson Allen
Shelvey
Sterling Sturridge Borini

Remember Oldham from last season in the FA Cup? Shelvey and Downing each scored their first goal for the club in a 5-1 win? Good. The opposition may be the same, the manager may be the same, but Oldham will probably field three, maybe four, of the players who featured in last year's cup tie. Such is life in the lower leagues.

To be fair, Liverpool's XI will be quite different as well; five of last season's starters aren't even with the club anymore. But Liverpool's XI should look a lot like that which faced Mansfield in the last round: similar to those usually used in the Europa League, mostly the second-string with a handful of senior players. Rodgers is promising a strong squad, but Liverpool have a balance to strike. The club have had a week off, meaning everyone should be fully rested, but will travel to Arsenal on Wednesday. Two days off between Oldham and Arsenal is a short rest, but 10 days off can lead to rust.

Sturridge not only has the chance to be the first Liverpool player to score in his first four matches, but still needs match fitness. Like against Mansfield, playing him for 45-60 minutes, to be replaced by Suarez, seems the best option. Borini, also returning to fitness and used as a sub in the last two matches, is another likely to start. With Sturridge's addition, Borini's return, and Downing's improvement, Sterling has found pitch time more limited; these are the sort of matches he'd have been limited to starting if Liverpool had a full complement of players going into the season.

Like Sterling, Allen and Shelvey have also played fewer minutes over the last few weeks, and are almost certainly in line for starts here. Whether the third midfielder is Henderson, Lucas, Suso, or even Coady is a tougher guess. It can't, won't, shouldn't be Gerrard. Lucas is slowly returning to his best, but still not quite there yet, and desperately needed against Arsenal. Shelvey seems more likely than Suso to play in the attacking midfielder role. Coady's an option if Shelvey plays further forward, but Henderson's work rate and physical capabilities should mean he's able to play both Sunday and against Arsenal if need be.

As in the last round, Wisdom and Robinson almost have to be the fullbacks. Enrique, Kelly, and Flanagan remain injured; Johnson's evidently picked up a knock as well. Fullbacks are cursed at this club. Rather than Wisdom, tomorrow could be a chance for under-21 fullback Ryan McLaughlin to debut for the club, which would be exciting; he's been incredible going forward in the few reserve matches I've seen. This is the sort of match that Coates should be starting, at the very least, now that it looks as if he won't be loaned out. Whether he partners Skrtel or Carragher will be a big clue as to which will start against Arsenal; chances are on will start tomorrow, the other on Wednesday. Either way, it's two center backs from Coates, Carragher, and Skrtel, given that Agger's often been left out of cup competition. And rightfully so.

Oldham are currently 19th in League One, having lost seven of their last eight matches. The Latics' last league win came on December 8. Since then, seven losses, one draw, and the 3rd round FA Cup win at Nottingham Forest. But while League One has been a struggle, Oldham have exceeded expectations in this competition. Donchester are joint-leaders of League One; they beat Oldham home and away in the league, but lost 3-1 in the 2nd round. Nottingham Forest are mid-table in the Championship, just five points outside of the playoff places; Oldham won 3-2 on their ground.

Names you should recognize: Dean Bouzanis, Jose Baxter. Bouzanis is a Liverpool academy graduate, released by the club in May 2011, and has taken the starting goalkeeper job from Alex Cisak. Baxter was supposed to be the next big thing out of Everton's academy, Everton's youngest ever senior player. Then he was arrested for possession of marijuana and counterfeit money in 2009 (he was never charged), and his Everton career stuttered. Then he was loaned to Tranmere and subsequently left Everton as a free agent. After failing a trial with Crystal Palace, he signed for Oldham at the start of the season. Still only 20, he's now their top scorer, by some distance, with manager Paul Dickov calling him "one of the top talents outside the Premier League." And it's pretty safe to assume an ex-Evertonian (and professed Liverpool fan) will be pretty excited about this cup tie.

Names you may recognize: Robbie Simpson, Jean-Yves M'voto, James Wesolowski. Those are the three Oldham players who started in last year's meeting most likely to start on Sunday; Matt Smith, who came off the bench last year, also plays far more often this season, and is Oldham's second top scorer following Matt Derbyshire's return to Nottingham Forest (and then loan to Blackpool). Simpson scored Oldham's lone goal in the previous meeting, the first of the match, an excellent blast from outside the box with Carragher and Coates backing off. M'voto is a burly center back, formerly of PSG (from the same reserve side as David Ngog) and Sunderland, although he never appeared in either club's first team. Wesolowski, a central midfielder and Oldham's captain with Dean Furman at the African Cup of Nations, would probably be an Australian international by now if not for constantly recurring injuries.

As it was for Mansfield, this will be the biggest match of Oldham's season, televised against a Premier League side. Liverpool will be under all the pressure; Oldham can play without fear, on their own ground in front of their own fans, knowing that a loss is all but expected. Liverpool struggled with that weight at times in the last round, pinned back by Mansfield in the final 15 minutes and conceding a goal which racked nerves until the final whistle.

Boundary Park will be a less than enjoyable place to play, packed to the rafters. Well, three rafters; the main stand was demolished in 2008, but hasn't been redeveloped, caught in the middle of a controversy whether to renovate Boundary Park or build a new stadium (sound familiar?). Chances are it'll get mighty cold and windy once the sun sets around half-time.

Can Liverpool handle the pressure? Can Liverpool focus on tomorrow's match without looking past to Arsenal on Wednesday?

19 November 2010

Liverpool v West Ham 11.20.10

12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC


Last four head-to-head:

3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.19.10
3-2 Liverpool (a) 09.19.09

3-0 Liverpool (a) 05.09.09
0-0 (h) 12.01.08


Last three matches:

Liverpool: 0-2 Stoke (a); 1-1 Wigan (a); 2-0 Chelsea (h)

West Ham: 0-0 Blackpool (h); 2-2 West Brom (h); 2-2 Brum (a)


Goalscorers (league):

Liverpool: Torres 5; Gerrard 3; Kyrgiakos 2; Kuyt, Maxi, Ngog 1

West Ham: Piquionne 4; Parker 3; Noble 2; Behrami, Cole 1


Referee: Lee Probert


Guess at a line-up:

Reina
Johnson Carragher Kyrgiakos Konchesky

Maxi Meireles Poulsen Jovanovic
Kuyt Torres


Gerrard's injured, Lucas is suspended, and Spearing turned his ankle in training today. At least Hodgson won't be able to name six central midfielders in the squad for once. Step forward, Christian Poulsen! Oh, and we should finally get to see Meireles play in his preferred position. Small favors...

On the plus side, Torres, Kuyt, Skrtel, and Johnson have been declared fit. Kuyt and Skrtel withdrew from this week's international duty, Torres made it through 45 minutes against Portugal unscathed, and Johnson trained all week at Melwood. We know how much Hodgson prefers to stick with his favored XI, so both Torres and Kuyt should start if at all possible. But whether the same goes for Johnson and Skrtel is up for debate.

The winter of Johnson's discontent has been played out in the press recently. Hodgson's disappointed with Glen's form, Glen's disappointed with Hodgson's "tactics." A deep backline does not suit an attacking right-back, as Noel wonderfully explained at Liverpool Offside this week, and Johnson's struggled with defensive duties before his most recent injury. Carragher's been preferred at fullback, as has the talented Martin Kelly, because both have been better fits for the manager's "strategy." But Carragher would always rather play in the center, and I believe Hodgson will give Johnson one more chance after their public spat, which today's press conference suggests.

Yes, Johnson could play further forward – his potential to replicate Bale's success as a winger is oft-discussed and Liverpool are struggling for bodies on the flanks – but I'm still skeptical of his potential in midfield. If Johnson does start at right back, one of Kyrgiakos and Skrtel will partner Carragher. Kyrgiakos' aerial ability and threat of set plays offers the team more than Skrtel, even if such a static defense could be undone by the quick Piquionne and Obinna.

Since Meireles seemingly has to start in the middle – the only other option appears to be Shelvey, and like Raul, it seems Hodgson would rather play him on the right – changes will come on the flanks. Cole is still recovering from a hamstring injury. Maxi will man one of the two spots, while Jovanovic or Babel seem likely to take the other. As said above, Shelvey's a possibility on the right, or if Hodgson really wants to rock the boat, he could deploy Kuyt on the right and partner Torres with Ngog. But Liverpool's tigerish manager hasn't often changed his stripes this season.

West Ham deserve to be bottom of the table, if only on goal difference, after a third of the campaign. One of two sides which have scored fewer goals than Liverpool – the other being Wigan – only Piquionne and Parker have consistently performed for the Hammers. They've been specialists in finishing level throughout the season, with a record of six draws, six losses, and one win – which came at home against Tottenham at the end of September. They've barely been mediocre in both attack and defense this season, but have still found ways to take a point – including in their last three matches – and a Parker/Noble midfield could control the pace if Liverpool casually concede possession as in the last two matches.

This is one of the games Liverpool expects to win, even under the current manager – a lifeline during a tough time, yet another false dawn to save Hodgson's job. At Anfield, against a underperforming relegation candidate. But we said similar about last month's meeting with Blackpool. Piquionne's punished Liverpool before, in last season's loss against Pompey, while it'd be true to form if the fumbling Carlton Cole actually played to his potential against a team rumored to be interested in signing him.

As always, Liverpool cannot simply expect to win; they must actually dictate proceedings. They need to pull the strings instead of being the puppet; sitting deep and reacting to opposition tactics is a recipe for disaster no matter who you're facing. And even though Liverpool desperately need points, more important is the style of play and ambition. This is the 14th game of the league season. We need to start seeing progress.

27 April 2015

Liverpool at Hull City 04.28.15

2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 10.25.14
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.01.14
1-3 Hull (a) 12.01.13
0-0 (a) 05.09.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 West Brom (a); 1-2 Villa (n); 2-0 Newcastle (h)
Hull: 2-0 Palace (a); 0-2 Southampton (a); 1-3 Swansea (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sterling 7; Gerrard, Henderson 6; Coutinho, Lallana, Sturridge 4; Lambert, Markovic, Moreno 2; Allen, Balotelli, Borini, Can, Johnson, Skrtel 1
Hull: Jelavic 8; N'Doye 5; Diame, Hernandez 4; Chester, Elmohamady 2; Aluko, Livermore, McShane, Meyler, Ramirez 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Can Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Allen
Henderson Coutinho
Ibe Sterling Lallana

What you saw on Saturday you'll probably see again tomorrow.

Hull are going to do exactly what West Brom did. Because it worked, and because that's exactly what Hull did in the reverse fixture last October. How can Liverpool ensure a different result? Can Liverpool ensure a different result?

Given Liverpool's proclivities in the last few matches, you'd expect Rodgers to stick with the 4-3-3. You'd expect Balotelli to be left out after offering little against West Brom. You'd expect Gerrard (and Johnson, for that matter) wouldn't be available after playing 90 minutes on Saturday, but then again, it is Gerrard and all rules about form and fitness don't seem to apply. Moreno should be fit again after missing Saturday's match, but Sturridge, Sakho, and Lucas are all still out.

So the above is my best guess. Can remaining at right-back again with Moreno returning on the left. Allen replacing Gerrard in midfield, Sterling replacing Balotelli up front with Lallana coming in on the left, as he did as a substitute on Saturday. But, no, I don't think it's the best chance for a better result either.

If I had my way, I'd prefer the return to 3-4-3. I'd prefer Coutinho get another chance as false nine, which led to the only time Liverpool scored two goals in a match since March 4. I'd prefer Mignolet; Can, Skrtel, Lovren; Ibe, Henderson, Allen, Moreno; Lallana, Coutinho, Sterling. But given the XIs named in the last four or five matches, I don't think that's likely.

If Rodgers really wants to stick with the 4-3-3, shift Can into midfield and Coutinho into the front three, at the expense of either Lallana or Ibe. Maybe even as the false nine again. Use Manquillo at right-back – for the first time in three months – or even (sigh) Johnson again. Something like Mignolet; Manquillo, Skrtel, Lovren, Moreno; Can, Allen, Henderson; Ibe, Coutinho, Sterling. But, again, that's not what recent XIs suggest will happen.

Like West Brom, Hull are coming off a vital 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace, which was prefaced by a losing streak which has dragged them far too close to the bottom three. Hull are in greater need of points than West Brom were, currently just one point and goal difference outside of the relegation zone. I doubt it'll change Bruce's tactics that much; Hull will be slightly more likely than West Brom to go in search of a counter-attack or set play goal, but they'll still first and foremost look to keep Liverpool from breaking through by defending as deep as possible in as great of numbers as possible.

Hull also have somewhat of an injury crisis on their hands. Diame might be fit after struggling with a recurring knee injury, but Jelavic, Davies, Snodgrass, and Robertson are out, while Meyler's suspended. All six are probable starters when available.

Despite the short turnaround after Saturday's match, I expect Bruce will keep faith with the same XI that beat Palace, the same 3-5-2 which stifled Liverpool in the reverse fixture. Harper; Chester, Dawson, McShane; Elmohamady, Livermore, Huddlestone, Quinn, Brady; N'Doye, Aluko. The only possible changes are if Diame's available from the start, most likely in place of Quinn, or if Abel Hernandez is preferred to Aluko.

So you can expect Hull to be Hull. Will Liverpool continue to be Liverpool?

20 December 2013

Liverpool v Cardiff 12.21.13

7:45am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-2 [3-2 on penalties] Liverpool (n; League Cup) 02.26.12
2-1 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.31.07
0-4 Cardiff (h) 12.19.59
2-3 Cardiff (a) 08.22.59

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-0 Tottenham (a); 4-1 West Ham (h); 5-1 Norwich (h)
Cardiff: 1-0 West Brom (h); 0-2 Palace (a); 0-0 Stoke (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 17; Sturridge 9; Gerrard 3; Sterling 2; Coutinho, Flanagan, Henderson, Moses, Sakho, Skrtel 1
Cardiff: Campbell 3; Caulker, Mutch, Whittingham 2; Kim, Gunnarsson, Odemwingie 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Flanagan
Lucas
Henderson Allen
Sterling Suarez Coutinho

I'd be very surprised if Liverpool's XI looked any different than last Sunday's.

It worked to near-perfection, there have been six days since Liverpool's last match, and there will be four more before the Boxing Day trip to City. Gerrard, Sturridge, and Enrique are all still out injured, and will be for a few more weeks.

However, Liverpool will be facing a side completely different from Tottenham. There will be no high back line, no wide open spaces behind a broken offside trap. Caulker and Turner will sit far deeper, camped just outside their penalty box, supported by Medel nipping at Liverpool ankles across the length and breadth of Cardiff's half. Johnson will need to have a much more dynamic game getting forward from fullback, but the biggest test would be of Henderson. He's struggled in an attacking midfield role against deep defenses, and his runs almost certainly won't be as effective as they were on Sunday.

But Liverpool's performance against Tottenham merits another go-around – Rodgers often subscribes to the 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' school of management – and will help prove whether it's a formation for the future or a one-off fluke.

Also, I will be incredibly disappointed in Suarez doesn't mark his new contract with at least one goal. Fair warning.

It seems a handy time to play Cardiff at Anfield, with the traveling side amidst self-inflicted turmoil. Malky Mackay is still the manager, for now, supposedly given an ultimatum by the owner to resign or be fired, but has been allowed to take charge of tomorrow's game. So either Cardiff implodes, or the players respond with a magnificent performance to support their embattled manager. Crap. It's probably going to be the latter, isn't it? Super. Maybe it's not a handy time to play Cardiff.

The "Dragons'" (read: Bluebirds') last two matches seem a decent guide as to how Cardiff will play tomorrow. Away to Palace, Cardiff lined up in a more defensive 4-4-1-1, packing the midfield with Medel, Kim, Whittingham, Cowie, and Mutch, with Campbell up front on his own. And Cardiff lost 0-2, conceding an early goal then unable to get back into the game.

In contrast, Mackey chose one of his most-attacking XIs in the next match against West Brom at home, and reaped a 1-0 win as a reward, a result which cost Steve Clarke his job. More a 4-1-3-2 formation, with Noone, Mutch, and Whittingham ahead of Medel, and both Campbell and Odemwingie up front.

Despite the poor result, I suspect Cardiff's XI will look more like the one which lost at Palace. More defensive, more compact, with the hopes of preventing the early goal which ruined the strategy at Palace. Especially since Liverpool thrives when Liverpool scores early. Which would make the XI something like: Marshall; Theophile-Catherine, Caulker, Turner, John; Cowie, Medel, Whittingham, Kim; Mutch; Campbell. Craig Bellamy is Cardiff's only injury doubt, perpetually struggling with the knee problems that have plagued him over the last few seasons, but knowing Craig, he'll probably do all he can to at least make the bench.

Only Crystal Palace have scored fewer goals than Cardiff this season, 11 to Cardiff's 12 (Sunderland have also scored 12). But five of Cardiff's 12 goals – 41.7% – have come from set plays, tied for the highest proportion in the league along with Sunderland. Liverpool have scored the most set play goals this season, but they only account for 28.2% of all goals. Whittingham is excellent on dead ball situations, either taking direct free kicks or crossing into the box. And Liverpool remain vulnerable on set plays, no matter who plays in defense. Five of the 18 that Liverpool have conceded (27.8%) have come from set plays, and that doesn't include goals by Everton and Hull which came after Liverpool failed to clear a free kick.

I'll be honest. Even though Liverpool will be at Anfield, I can't get the Hull performance out of my head. The home side cannot cannot cannot be complacent. Liverpool can't turn up expecting to win, can't already be thinking about Christmas dinner and the next two matches at City and Chelsea. The last time Liverpool underestimated Cardiff was the last time Liverpool faced Cardiff, needing extra-time and penalties to lift Liverpool's first trophy in six seasons.

It should go without saying, but these matches are just as important as the next two. Three points are three points are three points. Hopefully, the side will have learned something from the Hull debacle.

28 February 2014

Liverpool at Southampton 03.01.14

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Southampton (h) 09.21.13
1-3 Southampton (a) 03.16.13
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.01.12
0-2 Southampton (a) 01.22.05

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-3 Swansea (h); 1-2 Arsenal (a); 3-2 Fulham (a)
Southampton: 1-3 West Ham (a); 0-1 Sunderland (a); 1-0 Hull (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 23; Sturridge 18; Gerrard 7; Sterling 6; Skrtel 4; Coutinho, Henderson 3; Agger, Flanagan, Moses, Sakho 1
Southampton: Rodriguez 10; Lambert 8; Lallana 7; Fonte, Osvaldo 3; Davis, Lovren 2; Ramirez, Schneiderlin, Yoshida 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Flanagan Skrtel Agger Johnson
Gerrard
Henderson Coutinho
Suarez Sturridge Sterling

If at first it doesn't succeed...? How about if it kind of succeeds?

Once again, it's hard to foresee any changes to Liverpool's XI. Maybe in where they line up, but not who lines up; either fullback can play on either side, the front three could play in almost any of the three positions. Allen was brilliant as a substitute against Swansea, but I still can't see him replacing Henderson, Coutinho, or Sterling in the starting XI.

The question, as it's been for the last month, is how Liverpool's tactics (read: Liverpool's midfield) fare against the opposition. And, of course, whether or not Liverpool's defense will do something stupid. But more so the first question.

Away from home, against a side with the ability to dominate possession, you'd think that Liverpool's midfield would be better, would be less exposed, than against the likes of Stoke, Villa, West Brom, or Swansea. The front three can press, along with either Henderson or Coutinho, the rest of the midfield and defense can play compact and soak up pressure, looking to spring the ever-potent counter-attack rather than feeling the need to take the game to their opponents. However, Southampton's ability to press could throw this off-balance. Gerrard, Coutinho, and (to a lesser extent) Henderson probably won't have the time and space to pick apart the opposition during quick transitions, not like they did against Arsenal or Everton. Southampton's pressing has unbalanced Liverpool's in the last two meetings, which have both ended in two Liverpool losses.

Liverpool have scored 13 goals in the last four league matches, and none of them have come from Luis Suarez, who's currently going through his longest "drought" of the season. Southampton is the only team in the Premier League that Luis Suarez has never scored against. This seems relevant. Someone make sure Luis is aware of this prior to kick-off.

Southampton are currently ninth, locked with Newcastle in a nearly meaningless battle for eighth. Neither will drop enough points to fall into the bottom half of the table, and it seems almost certain that neither will gain enough points to challenge Everton or United for seventh. And Southampton's last three results somewhat support the notion of cruise control: a narrow victory over Hull, a narrow loss at Sunderland in the FA Cup, and a 1-3 loss at West Ham last weekend, demolished by Kevin Nolan et al after Yoshida opened the scoring from a set play. But that certainly doesn't mean Southampton don't have anything to play for. Especially when facing Liverpool, a side they've beaten in the last two meetings.

With Lovren and Ramirez back from extended absences, Southampton's only injury concern is Victor Wanyama, who'll be subject to a late fitness test. But there's a fairly good chance he wouldn't be playing anyway. Like Brendan Rodgers, Pochettino has had a settled XI over the last month, with Lovren likely to be the only player to alter the squad. Boruc; Chambers, Fonte, Lovren, Shaw; Cork, Schneiderlin; Davis, Lallana, Rodriguez; Lambert. Clyne could start instead of Chambers, Ward-Prowse or Ramirez instead of Davis, but those (along with Wanyama) seem the only possible variations.

Liverpool have been held scoreless in just two league matches this season: an 0-2 loss at Arsenal, and the 0-1 loss to tomorrow's opponent at Anfield in September. Only West Ham, Chelsea, and Arsenal have kept more clean sheets than Southampton this season.

Southampton have handled Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool better than any other side, limiting them to two goals in the last three matches, winning twice under Pochettino and narrowly losing once under Adkins. At times, the two appear mirror images: heavy pressing; intelligent, ball-controlling passing; counter-attack and set play goals. Southampton have done it better than Liverpool the last two times they've faced off.

For the last few months, we've said that this is a different Liverpool. A more resilient Liverpool, a more potent Liverpool. Tomorrow would be a good time to again demonstrate that.

25 January 2011

Liverpool v Fulham 01.26.11

3pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 04.11.10
1-3 Fulham (a) 10.31.09
1-0 Liverpool (a) 04.04.09
0-0 (h) 11.22.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Wolves (a); 2-2 Everton (h); 1-2 Blackpool (a)
Fulham: 2-0 Stoke (h); 1-1 Wigan (a); 6-2 Peterborough (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 9; Gerrard, Kuyt 4; Maxi 3; Kyrgiakos, Meireles, Ngog 2; Babel, Cole, Johnson, Skrtel 1
Fulham: Dempsey 6; Hangeland 3; Baird, Davies, Dembele, Kamara 2; Etuhu, Gera, Hughes, Johnson, Zamora 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Agger Johnson
Meireles Lucas
Kuyt Gerrard Maxi
Torres

This is Liverpool's other game in hand thanks to the winter postponements. Will Gerrard's return from suspension prompt the only change or will Dalglish rest others after three matches in a week?

The need for rotation may be moderated with Liverpool out of the FA Cup; the next match is a week later. Kuyt and Poulsen looked the most fatigued after beating Wolves, and it's safe to assume that Poulsen won't be starting. Home against Fulham is the type of game that frequently leads to calls for Kuyt's omission in favor of a "more attacking" player. Tomorrow could see Cole or possibly Pacheco take his place. Or Johnson could move up to midfield, with Aurelio at left back and Kelly keeping his place.

But after four consecutive matches, Kelly could be another rotation casualty. Honestly, I thought he'd be spelled before this. His performances have made him impossible to drop, relegating England's first-choice right back to the opposite flank, but five games in 17 days is a large ask for a 20-year-old defender with all of 17 total starts. Also, it's been a while since we've seen the supposedly-fit Aurelio.

Fulham currently sit 14th, three points and three places behind Liverpool. The Cottagers are the only side Liverpool haven't faced in the league yet this season. Unbeaten in four since a loss at Tottenham on New Year's Day, Fulham are still struggling to get over the same disease Hodgson left Liverpool with: appalling away form. Fulham are the highest-placed of five sides with only one win on their travels this season, a group that Liverpool escaped with Wednesday's victory. However, Fulham's lone road win came at Stoke in December, a site where Liverpool meekly lost 0-2. And Fulham under Hodgson were difficult opponents at Anfield, with successive 0-0s in the last two visits.

Clint Dempsey's in fine form, having scored both goals in Fulham's last match. Andrew Johnson and Moussa Dembele were both finally fit enough to start against Stoke, adding more firepower to Fulham's meager attack. Bobby Zamora remains a huge miss, still out with the broken leg suffered in September, as is Mark Schwarzer, away at the Asian Cup with Australia. Aaron Hughes and Dickson Etuhu will be late injury decisions. Captain Danny Murphy will assuredly be up for the game: a match against his former club and a chance to avenge Dear Ol' Roy.

Coming off the first win under Dalglish and the first clean sheet in the league since beating Villa at the beginning of December, building momentum is crucial. Liverpool are at home, where – even during such a calamitous season – they've actually won a few games. It's not too late to dig out of this mile-deep hole. Tottenham and fifth place are only nine points away, and two games still constitutes a winning streak.

20 November 2010

Liverpool 3-0 West Ham

Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Konchesky
Kuyt Meireles Poulsen Maxi
Ngog Torres

Goals:
Johnson 18'
Kuyt 27' (pen)
Maxi 38'

An attacking 4-2-2-2 system allowed to dominate every phase of the game. A hapless opposition content to sit back and be annihilated. If Liverpool weren't on cruise control for the entire second half, it could have been a cricket score. West Ham really were that bad. But a win's a win, especially this season, and any cause for optimism is warmly welcomed.

It was only a matter of time before Liverpool opened the scoring. The home side created three chances in as many minutes as Johnson bombed forward, Maxi perpetually found space in dangerous positions, and Ngog held up play well. Meanwhile, West Ham set up in a poor copy of Liverpool's usual away tactics: more than content giving opposition defenders and midfielders time on the ball. They quickly paid the price for it, with Liverpool finally cohesive in attack and with fullbacks eager to get forward.

Hodgson's criticism of Glen Johnson's been thoroughly discussed and overblown, which made the fullback's opener – albeit from a corner – even more gratifying. Johnson was Liverpool's most ambitious player from the start, constantly looking to get to the byline, and deserved his 18th-minute strike, chesting down Meireles' corner and slotting past Green.

Liverpool continued to take the game to West Ham, given the green light by a midfield desperately missing Scott Parker, and Kuyt made it two in the 27th after Gabbidon handled Torres' flick. Maxi added a third in the 38th, left alone in West Ham's box to easily head in Konchesky's cross, four minutes Gabbidon cleared his volley off the line.

From there, it looked as if the scoreline could have been whatever Liverpool wanted. But West Ham were marginally better in the second half, bringing on the winger Barrera for the ineffective Obinna, shifting to more of a 4-4-2, while Liverpool were happy to maintain the three-goal lead. But the Reds could have added more if Probert gave a deserved second penalty for another Gabbidon handball when trying to defend Torres, or if Green didn't come up with two magnificent saves on Torres and Poulsen's efforts in the 73rd.

Finally, Hodgson made substitutions in the final 15 minutes – first, Aurelio for Ngog followed by Shelvey for Meireles and Babel for Torres with less than 10 to play. It would have been nice to see all three sooner with the match dead and buried, but it's a small complaint after such a comprehensive win.

I'm well aware of the maxim that you can only beat what's in front of you, and Liverpool clearly did that today. But West Ham couldn't have made it much easier. On this form, the Hammers are assuredly going down. It was nice to see an ambitious, attacking side – something we certainly haven't seen enough this season – but West Ham's tactics played right into Liverpool's hands and heads dropped immediately after conceding the opener.

As much as I'd love for this to mark a turning point, I'm afraid it doesn't. Yes, Liverpool were excellent from top to bottom: Meireles impressed in his natural position, Torres is hitting full fitness, Johnson was a constant threat, both Poulsen and Konchesky actually looked like professional footballers (Konchesky even had an assist!), and Liverpool scored goals that weren't created or tallied by Gerrard or Torres. If nothing else, it's a huge boost in confidence for an inconsistent side, especially one that's missing its captain for the next month.

But Liverpool, even this Liverpool, are expected to win matches like these. Traveling to Spurs next weekend – a side that came back from two down at the Emirates today – will be a true test.

21 May 2011

Liverpool at Aston Villa 05.22.11

11am ET, live in the US only on espn3.com. It's not delayed on either FSC or FS+ as far as I can tell either. Here's hoping for better streams – espn3 makes my computer crawl even slower than usual.

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (h) 12.06.10
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.29.09
1-3 Villa (h) 08.24.09
5-0 Liverpool (h) 03.22.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Spurs (h); 5-2 Fulham (a); 3-0 Newcastle (h)
Villa: 2-1 Arsenal (a); 1-1 Wigan (h); 1-2 West Brom (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Kuyt 13; Maxi 10; Meireles 5; Gerrard, Suarez 4; Carroll, Cole, Johnson, Kyrgiakos, Ngog, Skrtel 2
Villa: Bent 9; A Young 7; Downing 6; Albrighton 5; Agbonlahor, Clark, Collins, Heskey 3; Delfouneso, Petrov, Walker, L Young 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Flanagan
Kuyt Lucas Spearing Meireles
Suarez Carroll

The bell finally tolls for 2010-11.

With Meireles back in training, Liverpool have two spots to be filled by three possibilities.

One of Carroll, Meireles, or Maxi will be on the bench. If Liverpool had secured 5th place on Sunday, we could have seen the likes of Shelvey involved from the start. Even though qualification's now in Tottenham's hands, Liverpool would make the Europa League by bettering Spurs' result; a full-strength XI seems mandatory.

Concerns about how Carroll fits into Liverpool's playing style have been dissected in great detail this week. Meireles might be available, but might not be fit enough to start. And Maxi came into the side when Liverpool's #9 picked up the knee injury; the Argentinean notched hat-tricks against Brum and Fulham, but could still start on the bench with Meireles on the left and Carroll up front  – as against Manchester City. My guess is Maxi will be the one left out, mostly because the other two are far more likely to have bigger roles next season, but none of the options would surprise.

Aurelio could also return in place of Flanagan, but the young fullback's barely put a foot wrong; I highly doubt he'll be dropped in the last game. Ashley Young on the left is a bigger threat than Downing on the right, which is why I expect Johnson at right-back, but the opposite could also be the case: Young frequently cuts in while Downing likes to stay wide and whip in crosses.

Villa played 4-2-3-1 in their last match, a 2-1 away win at Arsenal, with Delph, Downing, and Young behind Bent. Prior to that, stand-in manager McAllister primarily used 4-4-2, with Agbonlahor or Heskey partnering Bent. The former formation seems a better possibility with Liverpool's recent improvement (Spurs match not withstanding), but either way, Young and Downing will be the main threats on the flanks, while Carragher and Skrtel will need to be wary of Bent's ability on the counter. Agbonlahor's pace has troubled Carra in the past, but the striker's been a shadow of himself for most of the season. Unlike Liverpool, Aston Villa have no injury concerns.

After last Sunday, Liverpool can only take care of itself. But whether the club finishes fifth or sixth, the latter half of the season has been an astronomical improvement, bringing much-needed positivity and optimism for the first time in a long time. Liverpool need to end the season on the best possible note – away from Anfield, where the team's struggles have been most pronounced, would make it even better – or failure in the final two games will weigh heavy on the minds during the undoubtedly busy off-season.

29 August 2010

Liverpool 1-0 West Brom

Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Agger
Lucas Poulsen
Kuyt Gerrard Jovanovic
Torres

Goals:
Torres 65'

Unconvincing in the extreme, but once again, we're left thanking Fernando Torres for pulling Liverpool's fat from the fire. Despite a fair bit of dross, it's still three points, Liverpool's first Premiership win under the new manager.

Hodgson reverted to the 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1, a variation of how Liverpool played under Benitez but with the wide players marginally deeper, and West Brom matched Liverpool step for step for long stretches. There was little to choose from between the sides until Torres saved the day. Shock of shocks, the world-class striker was the one who made the difference.

It was Torres who created Liverpool's first chance, in the 3rd minute, attempting to replicate his goal of the season last year only to see the effort easily caught by Carson. It'd take the home side nearly an hour to threaten again, as West Brom broke up any Liverpool foray forward, with yet another team winning the possession battle at Anfield. Albion's holding midfielder Mulumbu and central defender Olsson were fantastic, Lucas and Poulsen were often bypassed (with Poulsen guilty of some shocking giveaways), and there was next to no cohesion in attack. Skrtel was on thin ice throughout the first half, lucky not to concede a penalty for holding on two corners, while Liverpool allowed Morrison and Fortuné a couple of unnecessary opportunities when not closed down.

Liverpool's second-half response was to switch Kuyt and Jovanovic, and the Dutchman did well down the left (while Jovanovic seemed off all game, replaced by Maxi in the 59th minute). Unlike against Arsenal, Rabotnicki, or Trabzonspor, it took time for the team to improve after the interval, but Skrtel nearly scored a wonder goal on the hour mark after Kuyt couldn't scramble in a corner and Poulsen subsequently found the defender at the top of the box, only to see his shot whistle past the top corner.

Five minutes later, hearts were in mouths as West Brom had the best chance of the game so far: Fortuné getting to the byline and centering, with Dorrans unable to connect but the pass reaching Jara. Thankfully, Agger blocked the right-back's first effort and Reina saved the second. But, as we've seen in the past, Reina then started the break that finally saw Liverpool grab the much-needed goal.

A long throw found Kuyt in space, and the Dutchman neatly combined with Torres to create an opening. Checking onto his right foot from the left flank, he delivered an inch-perfect cross for Torres at the top of the box, hitting his volley into the ground but eluding Carson to nestle into net. Torres nearly notched a second minutes later, with Gerrard crossing from the same flank, but Carson stood big to make a point-blank save at the far post.

From there, it was an eventful final ten minutes, with a clear handball blocking Torres' shot ignored by Probert, Albion charging down the field to frighten with yet another effort just wide, and Morrison sent off for a late tackle on Torres in what could only have been a make-up call for denying the spot kick. Despite West Brom down to ten, Liverpool were all hands on deck in the dying seconds, penned back to prevent an equalizer. And, thankfully, they held on for a barely deserved victory.

Three points were crucial, the absolute minimum Liverpool needed to take from this match, and that's what counts. But there are still tons of questions surrounding this side. Once again, the Lucas/Poulsen pairing failed to impress, with Poulsen the far guiltier party. Liverpool struggled to threaten consistently against a promoted side, a team they've scored 16 goals against (compared to West Brom's zero) in the last six meetings, despite being in the comforts of Anfield. Skrtel was shaky and Agger still doesn't look a left back. Konchesky and Meireles both watched from the stands, and the hope is those additions will help Liverpool better reflect Hodgson's plans.

But Reina was Reina, Torres finally got off the mark even though he's still clearly lacking in fitness, and Kuyt was probably man of the match, surprisingly better when moved out left (where he was often deployed in the World Cup). There's clearly room for improvement – and improvement is clearly necessary – but it's a win. A second successive win. We expect, and arguably deserve, better from this group of players, but a new manager has to be given time to implement his ideas.

But instead of increased practice time to implement those ideas, we've another early season international break. Let's hope Liverpool can continue this minuscule momentum when we restart in two weeks' time at Birmingham – a team that was consistently Benitez's bogey side.