31 January 2019

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Leicester

Previous Match Infographics: Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



Well that was a kick in the teeth. A return to earth. An infuriating result.

And Liverpool didn't even lose.

After Liverpool's win over Crystal Palace, I spent two paragraphs waxing lyrical about how Liverpool have often been lucky this season. So I guess this is only fitting. My bad.

It is easy to complain about Martin Atkinson. It is easy to write that Liverpool should have had at least one penalty if not two: Keïta obviously clipped by Ricardo, for sure, but also when Maguire shoved his forearm into Mo Salah's throat when blocking off his run through the box.

And then there's Maguire again, hauling down Sadio Mané when potentially through on goal, a caution rather than dismissal, mostly likely because of the distance to goal even though it appeared a clear scoring opportunity.

And then there's Maguire again, popping up for Leicester's equalizer literal seconds before the halftime whistle, five minutes after he could have seen red.

It is too easy to complain. Which also makes it easy to overlook the things that Liverpool failed to do.

This was a bad attacking performance. As in really, really bad.

Only Manchester City held Liverpool to fewer shots and a lower xG total at Anfield this season. This is only the third match where Liverpool have failed to take at least one clear-cut chance, after that City match and the 1-0 win at Huddersfield.

Leicester are the first non-Big Six side to hold Liverpool to ten or fewer shots at Anfield since Everton back in April 2017. And I suspect you remember that Merseyside Derby. Liverpool, scoring early then conceding to give Everton hope, but then 3-1 up after an hour and barely taking a shot afterwards, another hilarious derby where Everton think they can think they can think they can and then get put back in their box.

That wasn't quite the same as yesterday's match.

It's the stretch without shots that does me. That spell between the 7th and 74th minute, where Liverpool took just one of their ten shots. Three from the first to the sixth minutes, including the goal, where Liverpool looked on pace to romp, then six from the 74th through the 90th, futilely pushing for a winner despite a paucity of good openings. 67 minutes, with almost half of them when the score was level. One shot: Mo Salah from just inside the box immediately blocked.

But it is hard to take shots when you can't get the ball inside the penalty box.



For all those final third passes, there sure ain't a lot into the box. Or, more accurately, there sure ain't a lot of completed passes into the box.

This is not the first time we've complained about a paucity of shots and difficulties in creating them, the aforementioned 1-0 at Huddersfield, as well as the 1-0 Brighton most notably. There have been a lot of narrow wins won not because Liverpool blew their opponents away but because Liverpool didn't concede. And the opposition's had chances in more than a few of those narrow games: Groß's clear-cut chance saved against Brighton, Mahrez's missed penalty against City, Hogg hitting the woodwork for Huddersfield, missed clear-cut opportunities by Fulham, Everton, and Newcastle with the score still at 0-0.

The law of averages demands that Liverpool be punished sooner or later, pretty much no matter the opponent. And Leicester still needed Keïta's block to fly directly to Chilwell, and Chilwell's header to find Maguire, onside by less than a yard, to get their goal, having missed an earlier clear-cut chance as so many opponents have missed against Liverpool.

To be fair to Leicester, they've already beaten both City and Chelsea this season. Only Everton, Chelsea, Liverpool, and City allow their opponents fewer shots per match. They've still got a team full of players who've won the league. They've got Claude Puel as manager, with a record of 3W-4D-2L against Liverpool, most memorably with four matches unbeaten in charge of Southampton in 2016-17.

And to be fair to Liverpool, it's January 31st and this was Liverpool's first dropped points against a non-top five side. In match 24. Which, coincidentally, has not been a good match for Liverpool in previous seasons.


It's not quite nothing lost, nothing gained. But since Manchester City did similar yet worse a day before – scoring within a minute but giving it away, conceding twice to Liverpool's once – it is as good a time as any to drop two points that Liverpool probably shouldn't have dropped.

Dropped points happen, in crazy circumstances. Every season. That it's taken so long is a credit to this Liverpool side, as much as they've frustrated, as much as this frustrates.

The rest of the season depends on how Liverpool react to these dropped points.

21 January 2019

Visualized: Liverpool 4-3 Crystal Palace

Previous Match Infographics: Brighton (a), Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



Do we complain about Liverpool's defense now?

Three goals conceded in a league match for the first time in a calendar year. A counter-attack when Swansea beat Liverpool's six-player press, a simple set play header, and a late, lazy concession when the game appeared to be over.

Three opposition goals from three shots on-target, something that's only happened once since Jürgen Klopp became manager, in the 2-3 loss against Swansea in January 2017. For all of our defensive complaints last season, Liverpool conceded multiple goals from the same amount of shots on-target in just one match last season, the 1-2 loss at Manchester United.

Against an opponent who had the joint-17th worst scoring record in the division going into this match. Who had scored three goals against just one other league opponent so far this season. Which, to be fair, was Manchester City at Manchester City.

Maybe they've got previous.

The xG totals probably underrate Palace's output but, to be slightly fairer to Liverpool, none of the goals conceded came from clear-cut chances.



And, again, it's the first time that Liverpool have conceded three times this season. Liverpool have conceded three or more goals in at least four league matches in each of Klopp's three previous seasons. And Liverpool's record in those matches was 1W-1D-3L in 2015-16, 1W-3L in 2016-17, 1W-2D-2L in 2017-18. You unsurprisingly don't often win when conceding that many goals.

But the last in 2017-18 came almost exactly a year ago. Incidentally, right around the time that Virgil van Dijk signed for the club.

Also, it's not often an opponent beats a press that looks like this.


Both Keïta and Firmino missed tackles, dribbled past by James McArthur – a player who'd completed all of ten successful dribbles going into this game. Henderson, Robertson, and Mané are avoided as well, and van Aanholt got literal miles of space to run into with Milner unsurprisingly dropping back, needing to focus on Zaha's threat. Van Aanholt still finds Zaha, Zaha still beats Milner, and Fabinho and Robertson lose Townsend's cutting-in run with Kouyate also requiring attention.

It's not often that Liverpool concede from a corner. Tomkins' equalizer was just the fourth this season, with three of those in the league. Lamela's consolation came from a bouncing ball through Liverpool's six-yard box. Cork's opener for Burnley came after a couple of ricochets. Only Pavkov's goal for Red Star came from a similar cross directly from the corner-taker.

And it's not often that Liverpool concede that third; not only robbed of possession in their own half but more importantly down to ten men, with the defense both changed and unfamiliar thanks to Milner's dismissal and previous injuries.

We haven't seen goals conceded like those often this season. We haven't been many goals conceded at all this season. And I wouldn't expect to see many more.

But I do expect Liverpool to perform like that at the other end of the pitch.

Conceding three – while very, very annoying – doesn't really matter if you can get 'em back.

Liverpool, trailing in just five league matches so far this season, have come from behind to get at least a point in four of them. A late draw earned by Sturridge's star-destroyer at Chelsea, followed by three wins even though Liverpool conceded first in the last month and a half.

That's ten points gained from losing positions through 23 games. Which is already better than last season's nine points gained from losing positions.



A couple of somewhat-asides. First, we've seen more comeback wins than comeback draws this season in comparison to previous. Wins are good. I like wins. They're better than draws, and much harder to get than draws. Second, more than a few matches where Liverpool earned points from losing positions also saw Liverpool drop points from winning positions: 2-2 West Brom in 2015-16, 2-2 West Ham and 2-2 Bournemouth in 2016-17, and 3-3 Watford and 3-3 Arsenal in 2017-18. Matches where Liverpool were ahead, then behind, then level and hey nothing lost nothing gained. Not like the matches so far this season.

Unsurprisingly, Liverpool's front three got them back into this game. Which was necessary, because they were hardly in it in the first half.

Liverpool took ten first half shots. Just two came from Salah, Firmino, or Mané: Firmino's off-target blast from distance and Mané's easily saved set play header. The rest came from Liverpool's four defenders – two from each center-back, one from each full-back – and Fabinho. Those aren't the players you necessarily want firing at the opposition's goal. And it's somewhat symptomatic of Liverpool's frustration when playing against 11 players behind the ball, restricted to set play efforts and a handful of blasts from distance.

But it wasn't just shots. Salah, Firmino, and Mané combined for 79 touches in the opening 45 minutes, with just ten in Palace's penalty box. That total rose to 106 in the second half, with 22 in the penalty box. Those touches now led to seven shots, and – I guess most importantly – four goals.




It's the third time this season that all three have scored in the same match, and the 11th since the start of last season.

But Liverpool needed a good deal of fortune to get goals from all three. Van Dijk's shot cannoning off Tomkins and Speroni's error setting up Salah's goals. Another deflection on Firmino's goal. The ball bouncing kindly off Wan Bissaka rather than out of play – with Robertson doing excellently to keep it in – in the build-up to Mané's game-sealer.

It's not the first time Liverpool have been lucky this season. Origi's winner in the derby remains most memorable and most hilarious, but there are also Shaqiri's deflections against United, Salah's offside opener at Bournemouth (in a match where he still got a hat-trick), a handful of now-contentious penalties, and multiple missed opposition clear-cut chances – 40% of them off-target compared to Liverpool's 23% – including a potentially-all-important Mahrez penalty at Anfield.

Considering all the slights, both real and imagined, that we can point to from just last season, it's about damned time.

So, after all the out-of-the-ordinary, I am tempted to look at this match as an aberration, at both ends of the pitch. Liverpool do have history with aberrations and insanity against Crystal Palace, both in wild 3-3 and 4-2s, and in fortunate 2-1 turn-arounds.

But I am also aware that so many "flukes" and so much "luck" this season is probably more than just coincidence.

19 January 2019

Liverpool 4-3 Crystal Palace

Goals:
Townsend 34'
Salah 46' 75'
Firmino 53'
Tomkins 65'
Mané 90+3'
Meyer 90+5'

Did you miss last season's Liverpool? Did you miss the cardiac arrest?

So many memories.

Getting brick-walled in the first half by 11 men behind the ball. An opposition goal from a first counter-attack and first shot on-target. Liverpool somehow going on to concede twice more, from a set play and a late, late scramble. Three incredibly regrettable goals from just three opposition shots on-target.

Liverpool haven't conceded three goals in a match since last season's Champions League final. They hadn't done it in the league since the 4-3 win over City almost exactly a year ago. They hadn't done it against a non-top six side since the opening day of last season.

But!

At least Liverpool can't stop scoring either, once they finally make the break-through. Mohamed Salah can't stop scoring, his 15th and 16th in the league to continue leading the division, with six in the last six games in this regression of a second season. We get goals from all of Salah, Mané, and Firmino, for just the third time this season and only the second in the league. For the first time since *checks watch* Liverpool's last home game.

We get you score, I score, we all score. We get happy. We get angry. We get multiple heart attacks.

There are reminders, multiple reminders, but it's not quite last season's Liverpool.

No matter the threat of dropping points against a side that you shouldn't be dropping points against, a side that's given Liverpool multiple problems in recent meetings, managed by a frequent foil and, yes, former manager.

No matter going behind, going into halftime behind. No matter conceding from one of the easiest set plays you'll see. No matter conceding three times, three very last-season-Liverpool goals, from just three opposition shots on-target.

No matter the scares, no matter the set-backs.

No matter the pressure of leading the league.

This season's Liverpool does not crumble so easily. This season's Liverpool still isn't last season's Liverpool. Take the lead? Fine, we'll come back. Get an equalizer against the run of play? We're not done here yet.

But holy wow were we frightened.

We were frightened when Townsend gave Palace the lead in the 34th minute despite Liverpool having something like 90% possession before hand. The press fully engaged with the front six all chasing, the press broken by McArthur somehow retaining possession then finding van Aanholt in space, to Zaha one-on-one with Milner, Zaha to the byline and Townsend to the penalty spot for the cut-back.

We were frightened when Palace equalized at 2-2 after Liverpool's flurry to start the second half. Salah gets Liverpool back in the game within a minute, cheekily poaching van Dijk's deflected shot from distance with an outside-of-the-boot flick; Firmino gives Liverpool the lead with a bobbling deflected shot after good work from Robertson and Keïta.

We're celebrating. We're thankful. We're proud of this season's Liverpool's perseverance, skill, and fortune. But then we're punished. Thanks to Palace's first corner and the easiest header that James Tomkins will ever have, rising highest when Ayew pins van Dijk out of position and neither Fabinho nor Keïta can cover.

0-1, 2-1, 2-2. The specter of dropped points despite having a lead, something that plagued Liverpool often last season. The specter of dropped points against Crystal Palace, against Roy Hodgson, when the gap with Manchester City is still uncomfortably narrow and City are facing the worst side in the division tomorrow.

But it ain't over yet. And fortune continues to favor the good. And Mohamed Salah continues to be in the right place at the right time. Sustained possession, Fabinho wide to Milner, but his byline cross too close to Speroni. But! Speroni – 37 and making his first start in 13 months – tips it up rather than out. But! Mohamed Salah is on hand to jam it in from an actual inch out, most likely going over the line for an own goal anyway but let's not take chances here.

Phew.

It looks like we're done here when Mané finally finishes one of Liverpool's multiple fast breaks, slamming in from a wide angle in the 93rd minute, but there are no easy minutes today. Not when James Milner's been sent off a few minutes before because a second yellow on Zaha – who tormented the stand-in right back whenever given the chance. Not when we're finishing with ten men, with Adam Lallana in central midfield and with Firmino then debutant Rafa Camacho as replacement right-backs.

Not when we're emulating last season's Liverpool.

So we're left to sweat and shake and swear when Max Meyer scores in the final minute of injury time, with a right-flank cross into Wickham laid off perfectly, substitute to substitute. We're sweating and shaking and swearing as we play past the 95th minute, with the game ending on van Aanholt's shot from distance, sent gratefully into the stands rather than the back of the net.

But then we're celebrating again, as we've done in the vast majority of matches this season. Because Liverpool's won again, not in the way we've become accustomed to, but as hearteningly and necessarily as every win's been this season.

For all faults, for any faults, this Liverpool team does not stop. And that alone – no matter the talent and no matter the fortune – makes them different than any other Liverpool side in recent memory.

14 January 2019

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Brighton

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



We've somewhat settled into a routine. And it ain't a routine that I'm mad at.

This match looked a bit like others we've seen so far this season. Liverpool, not at their most coherent in attack, but good enough. Liverpool, very much coherent in defense and very much good enough. Another grind, but another win.

This was the fifth time this season that Liverpool have been held to ten shots or fewer in a league match. City (h), Watford (a), Bournemouth (a), City (a), and now Brighton (a). It also happened five times last season: City (a), Tottenham (h), Everton (a), WBA (a), Chelsea (a). Liverpool drew three and lost two of those matches in 2017-18. They've won four of them this season, with only the 1-2 loss at City seeing Liverpool drop points despite a paucity of shots.

This was also Liverpool's fifth 1-0 win of the season so far. Brighton (h), Huddersfield (a), Everton (h), Napoli (h), and Brighton (a). Liverpool had just one match finish with that score line last season: 1-0 Palace at Anfield way back in mid-August. All but the Everton match saw Liverpool score before the 50th minute, needing to hold onto a narrow lead if unable to extend their advantage.

And all but the Everton match saw Mohamed Salah score Liverpool's lone goal. Salah's now scored Liverpool's opening goal in ten matches so far this season – ten of his 17 goals in all competitions, and nine of his 14 in the Premier League. Liverpool have won all ten matches, four by a 1-0 score line, two by 2-0, two by 4-0, and one each at 3-0 and 4-1.

Liverpool have earned nine penalties so far this season, already more than last season's eight in all competitions. Salah's won four of them, including three of the last four since Boxing Day. Salah's scored four of them, including all three that he's won since Boxing Day.

So, yeah, just enough in attack. Once again. Unsurprisingly led by Mohamed Salah.

And then there's the other end of the pitch. Liverpool were fairly good at limiting opposition shots last season, with ten or fewer opposition shots in 28 of 38 league matches. They're on a similar pace this season, with ten or fewer opposition shots in 17 of 22 league matches this season. 73.7% of the league matches last season, 77.3% of league matches this season.

But then there's the quality of those opposition chances. Liverpool's xG per shot allowed last season was around 0.126, not only a bit frighteningly high, but also better than Liverpool's own xG per shot. This season Liverpool are allowing 0.098 xG per shot, below league average but also vastly lower than Liverpool's xG per shot taken, which is an egregiously high 0.142. Last season, Liverpool gave up 1.39 big chances per match. That average is 1.04 per match this season. And a whole lot fewer have been scored – just five so far this season. Compared to 25 through all of last season. 0.22 big chances scored per match versus 0.66 per match last season.

Liverpool had 16 clean sheets in the 2017-18 league campaign. They already have 13 this season.

We can parse this even further, more specific to Saturday's match.

The 1-0 match against Brighton could have been closer earlier this season. Could have finished very differently. Liverpool, fairly capably holding onto a 1-0 lead late on, still conceding a late clear-cut chance to Pascal Groß, thankfully saved by Alisson. Brighton didn't come close to getting a clear-cut chance on Saturday.

Brighton have scored 11 set play goals so far this season, which is joint-second in the league. They had just one set play shot against Liverpool: Andone from a free kick in the 89th minute, needing to try to control and turn, and ultimately shooting well wide.

Brighton didn't put a single shot on-target, the first time Liverpool's kept an opponent from at least one this season. It happened twice last season – the romps over Arsenal and Southampton at Anfield. It also happened twice in 2016-17, both matches against Southampton, both matches finishing in frustrating 0-0 draws.

Brighton, despite playing Murray, Locadia, and Andone – all 6'0" or taller – won just five aerial duels in Liverpool's half, and only two in the final third, both in the last two minutes of the match. Van Dijk, unsurprisingly, won seven of his eight aerial duels, but Fabinho was as impressive, at center-back for just the second time and winning all three of his three. The Brazilian also led Liverpool in both clearances and blocks.

So, Brighton, once again difficult to beat, as they were at Anfield back in August. A 1-0 win, for the second time against this opposition this season, after winning 5-1 and 4-0 last season.

But Brighton once again beaten. Liverpool once again victorious. Liverpool, continuing to do enough at both ends of the pitch, far more impressive at the end we haven't expected Liverpool to impress at.

And Liverpool, still atop the league, now by seven points for a least a few more hours.

04 January 2019

Visualized: Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City

Previous Match Infographics: Arsenal (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



A goal post is, at most, five inches wide.

Sadio Mané's shot in the 18th minute hit just inside the middle of the goal post, bouncing away from goal, cleared by John Stones off Ederson's face. It was a simply wonderful counter-attack from that three – a one two from Salah and Firmino, the former sprinting away from the usually-everywhere Fernandinho, then releasing Mané past John Stones with a perfectly timed and weighted through ball – and if any move in the match "deserved" a goal, it was that.

Leroy Sane's shot in the 72nd minute hit inside the goal post, bouncing across Liverpool's goal line. It was Manchester City's at their most breakneck: Ederson to Danilo to a just-onside Sterling, running at the defense and waiting until Sané was perfectly between Alexander-Arnold and Mané, the former needing to track Agüero's run and the latter not able to catch up, the pass around Lovren and shot from a wide angle just before Alexander-Arnold could get back over.

I'd guess the difference between Mané's shot and Sane's shot is about an inch. A damned inch. And it's the difference between 1-0 within the first quarter of the match and 1-2 going into the last quarter of it.

And that wasn't even the smallest margin in yesterday's game.



1.12 centimeters.

That's the reported distance that the ricochet following Mané's shot off the post failed to clear City's goal line. The literal width of your pinkie finger.

This stupid game.

Make no mistake, Liverpool and Manchester City were that equal over 180 minutes this season.



Barely a hair's difference in both possession and shots. Over two matches, neither Liverpool nor City reached their average amount of shots in a "normal" Premier League match. Liverpool better with accuracy, shot location, and shot quality; City creating more clear-cut chances but failing to score on any of them, yet still scoring twice. Compared to Liverpool's one.

City seemingly were the better side defensively, over both matches, especially in midfield. City also had slightly more to do.

Bernardo Silva was everywhere yesterday, leading City in attempted tackles, interceptions, and distance run, while also registering the assist for Agüero's opener. Fernandinho barely less impressive, excellently tracking Salah and Firmino throughout the match. The center-backs doing *enough*, whether in blocks or fouls or clearances. Barely enough yesterday, but enough all the same. City with Laporte as a stand-in left back, yet still unable to threaten him, as they very much in last season's Champions League match at Anfield.

But Liverpool weren't bad either. Wijnaldum and Fabinho were excellent in Liverpool's midfield. Granted, one of them came on as a substitute, and led to a change in Liverpool's formation, and led to a change in Liverpool's fortunes, the side scoring seven minutes after his entrance. The Milner-Henderson-Wijnaldum midfield has started eight matches this season. Liverpool are unbeaten at home – 3W-1D – but have won just once away, at Leicester, while drawing with Chelsea and losing to Napoli and now City. Maybe Milner wasn't fully fit, and Henderson was – as is usually the case – better than most give him credit for – but it's been an issue more than just yesterday. And Liverpool's midfield wasn't City's midfield, even with David Silva similarly off-color.

Liverpool's full-backs impressed – Robertson and Alexander-Arnold's involvement in Liverpool's goal, fittingly combining for multiple passes in the sequence, demonstrated their importance to Liverpool's attack, especially in this formation. Robertson was also very, very good up against Sterling, even if he lost him for City's winner, Sterling beating Liverpool's usually outstanding offside trap. Van Dijk was typically imperious, and while Agüero found more joy when switching onto Lovren, the Croatian usually dealt with him reasonably competently. Even Lovren's actions on both goals – facing up Sané, trying to close Sterling's passing angle respectively – weren't *bad*. City's players were just better in the moment.

But Liverpool's front three had their moments as well, even in the restored 4-3-3 that maybe shouldn't have been restored. Those two clear-cut chances against a side that allows very few of them, those hard luck less-than-inches away on two occasions.

Liverpool got that bit of fortune when Mahrez missed a penalty in the match at Anfield, a match where both sides looked far less capable of scoring. City got it yesterday, with Mané and Sane's respective shots, with Ederson less than an inch from conceding an own goal thanks to Stones' clearance, even with Kompany staying on the pitch in the 31st minute after a wild two-footed tackle on Salah.

But Liverpool still have four more points through the season so far, and an arguably easier last 17 games, with only three top-six sides left to play and only one of those matches away from Anfield.

But it ain't the potential seven or ten points. Hay Liga. As if there was any doubt we'd have one.

31 December 2018

Visualized: Liverpool 5-1 Arsenal

Previous Match Infographics: Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



I remain stupidly impressed by this Liverpool side.

This match featured almost all of the things that Liverpool have done well this season. Almost all.

Goals, lots of them. Shots, not a ton but a bunch of good ones. Limiting the opposition's chances, at least after the 11th minute. A dominant performance at both ends of the pitch, a resounding win over a side that held Liverpool on their own ground less than two months ago.

We got Liverpool at its most potent, both in creating excellent chances and scoring them – which hasn't happened as often as it did last season. At least, not yet.

It's the ninth time since the start of last season that Liverpool had five or more clear-cut chances in a league match, but only the first where Liverpool have scored five clear-cut chances. Mainly thanks to those clear-cut chances, Liverpool's xG per shot was a ridiculously high 0.247. Liverpool put two-thirds of their shots on-target – 10 of 15 – a mark bettered in just one league match this season, the 3-0 win over Watford. Firmino, Salah, and Mané all scored in the same match for only the second time this season – it happened eight times last season – and for the first time in the league.

It was the first time this season that Liverpool have scored five or more goals in a match. They'd done so four times by this point last season.

Granted, Arsenal have the weakest defense in the Top 5, relatively speaking. Their goals conceded total is higher than the other four, even prior to this match. As is their Expected Goals allowed tally, which they're underperforming. Saturday's match was the third time this season they'd conceded at least three in a league match and the seventh time they'd conceded at least two. Arsenal were missing both starting full-backs as well as Holding and Koscielny – the latter at least until halftime, with four Liverpool goals already scored.

It's all a bit unfair on Arsenal – and not for the first time at Anfield. But Liverpool still performed more than impressively in attack, which they've been doing much more consistently over the last month.

And Liverpool were almost as emphatic at the other end of the pitch.

There was the one black mark in Saturday's match, albeit a black mark that didn't last long. Liverpool did all of the above despite Arsenal scoring first and scoring early, off the mark in the 11th minute, the quickest goal that Liverpool have conceded in a league match since Leicester's opener almost exactly a year ago. A match, incidentally, that Liverpool went on to win.

Maitland-Niles' goal was Arsenal's last shot on-target. They went on to take just six shots over the next 80 minutes, despite more than 55% possession. The xG per shot on those six shots was a ridiculously low 0.038, with three off-target, three blocked, and three of the six coming from outside the box. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the Premier League's top scorer going into the match, registered just 13 touches in 71 minutes, with six of the 13 coming from kickoffs.

Liverpool's response to going a goal behind remains the most impressive thing about Saturday's impressive match.

Liverpool have now trailed for all of 75 minutes this campaign. Three minutes against Arsenal, eight minutes at Burnley, and 64 minutes at Chelsea, with Liverpool going on to win twice and draw once.

It's a far cry from how often Liverpool were behind last season, which was reasonably good as it was.



Not only are Liverpool rarely behind in league matches this season, they've also been far better at maintaining a one-goal lead.

I doubt I need remind how often Liverpool lost a lead last season – again, relatively speaking. Liverpool had a lead but went on to draw in seven league matches in 2017-18 – Watford (a), Newcastle (a), Chelsea (h), Everton (h), Arsenal (a), Tottenham (h), and West Brom (a) – and also lost a lead in three Champions League matches.

Liverpool have had a one-goal lead for 561 minutes so far this season – 31.17% of the total league minutes played so far this season. They've conceded just twice with a one-goal lead, the now-regrettable 1-1 draw at Arsenal and the 3-1 win over Manchester United, the latter a fluke goal canceled out by Shaqiri's late heroics.

26% of all the goals that Liverpool conceded in the league last season came with a one-goal Liverpool lead. Which, admittedly, is a similar proportion to this season, but it's a bit different when conceding 38 goals compared to just eight.

And Liverpool did all of the above good, both in Saturday's match and what's come in all of December, during the absolute meat of the season. Beating a top-five rival by four goals during the difficult festive stretch. Coming back from a potentially demoralizing early concession. Creating and scoring excellent chances, multiple times. Preventing Arsenal from having anywhere near a sniff at getting back into the match once Liverpool took a lead.

And now winning the eighth game this month – a new record for most Liverpool wins in a single month. Seven of those came in the Premier League; Liverpool are now just the fifth English side to win seven top-flight matches in a single month, with the last to do so back in 1985-86.

And all of this, all of this good, is why Liverpool still have a seven-point lead at the top of the table heading into 2019. Heading into Thursday's match at second-place Manchester City.

29 December 2018

Liverpool 5-1 Arsenal

Goals:
Maitland Niles 11'
Firmino 14' 16' 65' [pen]
Mané 32'
Salah 45+2' [pen]

We've lived through three full days of nothing but title talk. A seven-point gap with supposedly all-conquering Manchester City. A six-point gap with Tottenham, which could be nine because of their loss to Wolves earlier today. We're midway through the season and Liverpool top the league.

That's a lot of pressure for a Liverpool side which has capitulated in similar conditions in previous seasons. And that pressure's massively compounded by Arsenal opening the scoring in the 11th minute. Liverpool are forced into trying to play out from the back, not with heavy Arsenal pressing but with passing lanes very much blocked off. It's not quite lackadaisical but Liverpool certainly aren't at their sharpest. And they're warned a minute earlier when Fabinho's cross field pass is intercepted, with Iwobi's shot saved by Alisson. Less than a minute later, Lovren's skied clearance is picked off, Iwobi to Kolasinac to Iwobi, a low cross behind van Dijk and Robertson to Maitland-Niles at the back post.

It's the earliest goal Liverpool have conceded this season. It's just the third time they've conceded either an opening goal or a first-half goal in the league. It's absolutely a setback.

It ain't a setback for long.

Three minutes, in fact. There's Firmino, following up Salah's run into the box, in place to tap in following two deflections after Salah's tacked by Kolasinac. He played the pass into Salah and kept going, and he emphasized the finish with yet another no-look goal. Then there's Firmino again, slaloming through Arsenal's defense after Mané's pressing led to possession, putting both Mustafi and Sokratis on their butts before beating Leno. Two goals in two minutes from a player who hadn't scored at Anfield since April, scrappy then sublime.

There's Firmino, and there's Liverpool, in the lead against one of the tougher opponents they'll face this campaign – one of three sides to take points off of Liverpool in the first half of the season – less than five minutes after conceding first.

And from there, it's Arsenal against Liverpool at Anfield as usual. A fixture that's finished 4-0 and 3-1 in the previous two seasons, and memorably finished 5-1 in 2013-14.

Mané adds a third in the 32nd minute when Arsenal initially clear a corner but can't handle the second cross in, Robertson perfectly to Salah at the back post, touched directly into Mané's stride. Salah adds a fourth just before halftime, from the penalty spot after being pulled down in a similar manner to that against Newcastle.

From 0-1 to 4-1, against the fourth- or fifth-best side in the league, in less than 35 minutes.

The second half's a formality, as it was in this fixture last season. Arsenal are in damage control mode. Liverpool get a fifth just about midway through, a second penalty in the match and third at Anfield in two games after going more than a year without a single spot kick at home in the league. Firmino takes it this time and Firmino gets his hat-trick. Firmino gets his first Liverpool hat-trick, the fifth player to do so under Klopp. Salah, Firmino, and Mané all score in the same game for the second time this season, the first in the league, after doing it eight times last season. Liverpool give Mané, Wijnaldum, and Robertson a bit of rest, Liverpool don't do anything stupid, and Liverpool take it easy for about half an hour, which is absolutely fine by me, especially considering the next match in five days, and especially after that first half. Especially after going behind in that first half.

Liverpool have played eight games this month. In 28 days. Two a week for four straight weeks. And they've won every damned one of them. Two by a 1-0 margin, one by a 2-0 margin, and five where Liverpool scored at least three and won by at least two. Five clean sheets, two 3-1 wins, and this 5-1 win.

December usually sucks, because fixture congestion almost always sucks. December went a long way in dooming title challenges in both 2008-09 and 2013-14. December has definitely not sucked this season.

Compare that to the month that Liverpool's rivals' have had. Chelsea and Arsenal – the latter prior to today – each lost twice. Tottenham burst into life over the last 10 days, but then completely fell apart in the last third of today's loss. And City have lost three of their last six in all competitions, with three of the last four in the league.

Liverpool are unbeaten. In all of December and through 20 games of the league campaign. And Liverpool will go into 2019 at the top of the league, by at least seven points.

2018 has been very good, which makes it very, very possible that the 2018-19 season will be very, very good. But there's still the small matter of 2019, of the eighteen league matches still to come. The first of which will be against the team most likely in second at the time, who also happen to be the defending league champions.

27 December 2018

Visualized: Liverpool 4-0 Newcastle

Previous Match Infographics: Wolves (a), Manchester Utd (h), Napoli (h), Bournemouth (a), Burnley, Everton (h), Paris St-Germain (a), Watford (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), Cardiff (h), Red Star Belgrade (h), Huddersfield (a), Manchester City (h), Napoli (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h)

Match data from WhoScored, except average position from the SofaScore app. 



It is getting harder to write something different about each Liverpool match. Because Liverpool keep doing what they're supposed to do, and increasingly effectively. We've seen the blue print for more than a month, and Liverpool keep executing it.

First half goal, from a set play. Liverpool have scored 13 set play goals so far this season – with all of them coming in the league. 13 of 43 league goals – 30.2%, a vastly higher proportion than in Klopp's previous seasons; for comparison, Liverpool only scored 20 of 135 goals in all competitions from set plays last season.

Liverpool are surprisingly good at the set plays.

This time, Lascelles can't fully clear Robertson's cross from a short corner and Dejan Lovren lashes it like Dejan Lovren's only dreamed about lashing it, on the half volley into the roof of the net at approximately 800 miles an hour.

1-0 at halftime, in control of the game but not of the result. Dominance in possession, but not necessarily in shots – with only four following the early goal and three of the four from outside the box – and definitely not in goals. Newcastle pose next to no threat, but not no threat, squandering a clear-cut chance of their own just three minutes before Liverpool scored. It's only 1-0, etc etc.

There have been ten matches where Liverpool have gone into halftime at 1-0 so far this season. Those ten matches have finished 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 4-1, 2-0, 4-0, 1-0, 2-0, and 4-0. Seven games where Liverpool extended their lead, with Liverpool at least holding on for a 1-0 win rather than a draw or loss in the other three. Ten games with ten first half goals, followed by 13 second half Liverpool goals with only two for the opposition, both scored when Liverpool were at least two goals ahead.

As you're well aware, this last match finished 4-0. Salah won a soft penalty, Shaqiri converted a clear-cut chance after sustained pressure, and Fabinho added another from another set play. There's the 13th set play goal of the season, as well as the ninth goal from a Liverpool substitute.

And Liverpool reach the halfway point of the campaign atop the table by six points. Which literally no one expected a month ago, two months ago, four months ago.

At the halfway point, this is and isn't a different team than last year's Liverpool.



Almost exactly the same goals scored per game on less than one shot fewer per game. Almost exactly the same Expected Goals per game. The opposition keeper's saving almost the exact percentage of shots on-target.

Fearing regression from last season's totals a month or two ago when the attack wasn't fully firing now seems a bit premature.

At the other end of the pitch, a similar amount of opposition shots and shots on-target, and not a ton fewer clear-cut chances allowed per match. There are fewer, though, and the opposition's xG per shot is a lot better for Liverpool.

That goals conceded per game average though. And that goalkeeper save percentage though. I love you, Alisson Becker.

But, wait, you say. It's only been half a season. Fair. There are still 19 more league games to go before anything's accomplished. Liverpool have thrice led the league at Christmas in the last 20 or so years and gone onto etc etc etc etc.

But also.


But also.


This is, once again and still, a very impressive side, as they've been for more than a calendar year. At both ends of the pitch. And despite looking a different side for the last few months.

It's safe to say that 4-2-3-1 has become Klopp's preferred formation this season, at least in the majority of games. And there have been stuttered steps, relatively speaking, especially for Liverpool's attackers. But that hasn't been the case in the last few matches. Yes, yes, Burnley and Bournemouth and Fulham and Newcastle, but these are the types of matches where Liverpool's failed in previous campaigns.

Half the season gone, every side in the league played once, and Liverpool's beaten everyone bar City, Chelsea, and Arsenal. And haven't lost to anyone.

Salah's scored in three of the last five games, adding crucial goals against Wolves and Newcastle to a hat-trick at Bournemouth, having also tallied in opening goal against Fulham and Watford last month. Shaqiri's got a better goals and assists per minute return than both Salah and Mané did to start their Liverpool careers. Fabinho's looked increasingly excellent next to Wijnaldum, and now did well as a substitute alongside Henderson. Liverpool continue to have one of the best defenses in the world, featuring one of the best center-backs and one of the best goalkeepers in the world.

It's going great, where it was just good a month or two ago. So great that the good earlier this season felt little more than mediocre.

This one, done. First half of the season, done. But we're all too aware that there's still another half to conquer.