3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports
Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 09.16.16
1-1 (h) 05.11.16
3-1 Liverpool (a) 10.31.15
1-1 (a) 05.10.15
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Wolves (h); 0-1 Southampton (h); 2-3 Swansea (h)
Chelsea: 4-0 Brentford (h); 2-0 Hull (h); 3-0 Leicester (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino 8; Lallana 7; Milner 6; Coutinho 5; Origi 4; Can 3; Lovren, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Chelsea: Costa 15; Hazard 9; Pedro, Willian 5; Alonso, Cahill, Moses 3; Batshuayi, Fabregas, Kante 1
Referee: Mark Clattenburg
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Alexander-Arnold Matip Lovren Milner
Wijnaldum Henderson Can
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
It's obviously not a great time to host the league leaders. Liverpool are in disarray. Liverpool have one win in 2017, at League Two Plymouth Argyle with a second-string side. Liverpool have lost their last three matches, all at Anfield – the first time that's happened in more than four years. Liverpool haven't lost four in a row at Anfield since 1923, the only time that's happened in Liverpool's history.
Or is it?
No, no it's probably not. At least January will finally be over.
We can hope this fixture inspires Liverpool out of this current funk. And there is precedent for such. Liverpool were mediocre in Klopp's first few matches, having drawn five of their last six, before traveling to Chelsea and comprehensively winning 3-1. There were a couple of games at Anfield in 2009-10 – 2-0 wins over United and Tottenham – to arrest multiple-match slides which came before. And Liverpool do have an excellent recent record against Chelsea. Liverpool do have an excellent recent record against the current top six.
That Sadio Mané won't return to Merseyside until tonight probably means tomorrow's too soon to start. I hope he's available, for obvious reasons, and Klopp didn't rule it out. Liverpool have desperately missed him, for his qualities and how the rest of the team takes shape around him. More specifically, it'd allow Lallana to play in midfield – another crucial piece of the puzzle – with Wijnaldum the most likely to make way.
At least Adam Lallana's fit again, even if he's likely to play in the front three – don't expect Sturridge or Origi to start unless there are issues with either Wijnaldum or Can besides their rocky form. But Nat Clyne isn't, absent from training in the last few days, which means Alexander-Arnold. Against Eden Hazard. *gulp, tugs collar*
But, of course, it's not as if Eden Hazard is Chelsea's only threat. Chelsea are nothing but threats. Hell, even Victor Moses has become a threat.
Chelsea are eight points ahead of second, and ten ahead of Liverpool. They've won 14 of their last 15 matches in all competitions, and 16 of their last 17 in the league. They've kept clean sheets in 13 of those 17 matches, allowing just six goals, and haven't conceded in their last three games in all competitions.
They're near perfectly balanced between attack and defense, the stingiest side in the league but with Costa, Hazard, Pedro, and Willian all adding goals. Once this Chelsea gets a lead, that's almost certainly it. They won't be as deep as other opponents Liverpool have faced during this awful month, but they congest the middle just as effectively due to both system and personnel. They smother, steal, and transition quickly – capable of doing in through the middle with to Costa, Hazard, and Pedro/Willian's tricks, or up the flanks with Moses and Alonso's pace.
So, yeah, they're good. Liverpool have been very good at times this season as well. But unlike Liverpool, Chelsea are playing good too.
Tomorrow's XI seems fairly easy to predict. It will be what it's been. Courtois; Azpilicueta, Luiz, Cahill; Moses, Matic, Kante, Alonso; Pedro, Costa, Hazard. The only potential alteration is Willian rather than Pedro. Chelsea have no injuries because Chelsea not having any injuries is a big reason why they're first. As with Leicester last season, as with Chelsea the season before.
Chelsea's lone league loss since September is the template. Tottenham's 2-0 home win at the beginning of the month: press, strangle, and restrict Chelsea, both goals coming when Tottenham won the ball in the middle third, stretched the defense with width and pace, and crossed for Dele Alli headers.
Or, in a similar vein, it will take a performance like Liverpool's against Manchester City before this slide started: get the goal (and ideally more!) – with Wijnaldum's not dissimilar from Alli's against Chelsea – then defend like demons. Ideally more than one goal. Ideally better in attack, probably needing to take more than five shots, and especially needing to be better when there are opportunities to counter.
Which makes Liverpool's 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge a template as well. Liverpool started well despite missing a crucial player (Firmino) and scored twice in the first half, enough to see out the win, under pressure after Diego Costa pulled one back but no closer. But that performance took luck as well as skill, especially for Liverpool's goals: Chelsea's complete set play breakdown (which has not happened often since then) for Lovren's opener, then a unlikely bazooka from distance by Henderson.
Liverpool have still lost just one of 14 league matches against the current top six, 0-1 against Manchester United last season. This season, they've beaten Arsenal and Chelsea away and City at home, drawn at Tottenham and against United.
Liverpool have been very good at times this season. Being good again is long, long overdue, and it will happens sooner than later with the schedule easing and Mané returning. But they'll need to be at their best to get something from tomorrow's match.
30 January 2017
28 January 2017
Liverpool 1-2 Wolverhampton
Goals:
Stearman 1'
Weimann 41'
Origi 86'
Should we be reactionary when a Liverpool side with a ton of changes and a ton of kids and a ton of players who haven't really played together lose?
Yes, yes we should.
Because that was hilariously bad. And it's not for the first time this month, no matter the Liverpool XI. In isolation, it's almost excusable. In the context of the winter of our discontent, it's absolutely infuriating.
Liverpool are almost certainly completely out of the title race, out of the League Cup, and now out of the FA Cup after three consecutive home losses in seven days. To Swansea, Southampton, and Wolverhampton. After not losing at home for more than a year.
The last time Liverpool lost three in a row at home was September/October 2012. That was to Arsenal, Manchester United, and Udinese. This lot's a bit different than that lot.
Incidentally, Liverpool's next three home games are Chelsea, Tottenham, and Arsenal.
We can do this entire review with comparisons to previous failings.
Liverpool conceded early, as against Burnley. Liverpool conceded unnecessarily, after being pressed and giving the ball away (Lucas) and committing a dumb foul (Moreno). Liverpool conceded from a set play, with Stearman arguably, marginally, but probably never getting that call offside. Liverpool conceded from the first shot on-target.
An early concession allowed the opposition to sit deep even more comfortably, preventing a Liverpool side which dominated possession from coming anywhere near breaking through. As we've seen in almost every single match this month.
Liverpool conceded a second on the counter-attack, giving the ball away in the final third then hilariously exposed. As in the aforementioned Burnley match. As happened for Swansea's third a week ago. As happened for Southampton's added aggregate gloss three days ago.
Liverpool failed to put a single shot on-target in the first half for the second time during this three-match losing streak – as against Swansea – restricted to four shots despite almost 80% possession, with three of the four from outside the box.
And despite changes – Coutinho for Randall at halftime, switching to three at the back; then Sturridge for Firmino; then Can for Ejaria – it was more of the same in the second half. Finally, a first shot on-target on the hour mark, an easy 30-yard slow roller from Coutinho. A second from Sturridge 15 minutes later, a similar position with a similar outcome. 41 minutes of unsuccessfully ambling face-first into a brick wall then starting over. 13 of 20 Liverpool shots coming from outside the box, 11 of 14 before Origi finally scored. As we've seen against etc. etc. etc.
Yes, there was a glimmer of unwarranted and unwanted hope in the 86th minute, Origi from Sturridge's header across goal following a corner. Another set play goal. Liverpool are still limited to two open play goals in eight 2017 matches, both from Firmino against Swansea. And Origi nearly had a second a minute later, after a scramble following another corner, denied by Burgoyne's kick save.
And that was that. No more chances, with Wolves killing the clock efficiently. Another loss, this probably the most deserved. None except I guess Ben Woodburn coming out of this fiasco with any credit, although at least Coutinho livened up Liverpool's attack a little bit. Multiple players coming out of this fiasco with a ton of criticism, especially Randall, Moreno, and Lucas – admittedly three who don't often feature, but the full-backs exposed and harassed on multiple occasions and Lucas doing Stereotypically Bad Lucas.
Less than a month ago, halfway through the league campaign, Liverpool had scored the most goals in a single half-season in their history. It was Liverpool's fourth-best points total after 19 games, Liverpool's joint-fifth best goal difference.
And now we're here. With one win in eight matches in 2017, a narrow 1-0 win thanks to a set play against League Two Plymouth. Three draws – Sunderland, Plymouth, and Manchester United – and now, three consecutive losses. To Swansea, Southampton, and Wolves. Swansea. Southampton. And Wolves.
It will probably get better, as the fixture list eases, as players return to fitness and form and the African Cup of Nations ends. When Liverpool get one, they'll probably get two and then three. But right now, it's getting worse. Every game. So, sure, it was a reserve line-up, but the rot continues and the rot worsens. The reserve line-up and the rot feature the failings we've seen time and time again this month.
And there are no signs of abating or improving.
And Liverpool host the runaway league leaders in a little more than 72 hours.
Stearman 1'
Weimann 41'
Origi 86'
Should we be reactionary when a Liverpool side with a ton of changes and a ton of kids and a ton of players who haven't really played together lose?
Yes, yes we should.
Because that was hilariously bad. And it's not for the first time this month, no matter the Liverpool XI. In isolation, it's almost excusable. In the context of the winter of our discontent, it's absolutely infuriating.
Liverpool are almost certainly completely out of the title race, out of the League Cup, and now out of the FA Cup after three consecutive home losses in seven days. To Swansea, Southampton, and Wolverhampton. After not losing at home for more than a year.
The last time Liverpool lost three in a row at home was September/October 2012. That was to Arsenal, Manchester United, and Udinese. This lot's a bit different than that lot.
Incidentally, Liverpool's next three home games are Chelsea, Tottenham, and Arsenal.
We can do this entire review with comparisons to previous failings.
Liverpool conceded early, as against Burnley. Liverpool conceded unnecessarily, after being pressed and giving the ball away (Lucas) and committing a dumb foul (Moreno). Liverpool conceded from a set play, with Stearman arguably, marginally, but probably never getting that call offside. Liverpool conceded from the first shot on-target.
An early concession allowed the opposition to sit deep even more comfortably, preventing a Liverpool side which dominated possession from coming anywhere near breaking through. As we've seen in almost every single match this month.
Liverpool conceded a second on the counter-attack, giving the ball away in the final third then hilariously exposed. As in the aforementioned Burnley match. As happened for Swansea's third a week ago. As happened for Southampton's added aggregate gloss three days ago.
Liverpool failed to put a single shot on-target in the first half for the second time during this three-match losing streak – as against Swansea – restricted to four shots despite almost 80% possession, with three of the four from outside the box.
And despite changes – Coutinho for Randall at halftime, switching to three at the back; then Sturridge for Firmino; then Can for Ejaria – it was more of the same in the second half. Finally, a first shot on-target on the hour mark, an easy 30-yard slow roller from Coutinho. A second from Sturridge 15 minutes later, a similar position with a similar outcome. 41 minutes of unsuccessfully ambling face-first into a brick wall then starting over. 13 of 20 Liverpool shots coming from outside the box, 11 of 14 before Origi finally scored. As we've seen against etc. etc. etc.
Yes, there was a glimmer of unwarranted and unwanted hope in the 86th minute, Origi from Sturridge's header across goal following a corner. Another set play goal. Liverpool are still limited to two open play goals in eight 2017 matches, both from Firmino against Swansea. And Origi nearly had a second a minute later, after a scramble following another corner, denied by Burgoyne's kick save.
And that was that. No more chances, with Wolves killing the clock efficiently. Another loss, this probably the most deserved. None except I guess Ben Woodburn coming out of this fiasco with any credit, although at least Coutinho livened up Liverpool's attack a little bit. Multiple players coming out of this fiasco with a ton of criticism, especially Randall, Moreno, and Lucas – admittedly three who don't often feature, but the full-backs exposed and harassed on multiple occasions and Lucas doing Stereotypically Bad Lucas.
Less than a month ago, halfway through the league campaign, Liverpool had scored the most goals in a single half-season in their history. It was Liverpool's fourth-best points total after 19 games, Liverpool's joint-fifth best goal difference.
And now we're here. With one win in eight matches in 2017, a narrow 1-0 win thanks to a set play against League Two Plymouth. Three draws – Sunderland, Plymouth, and Manchester United – and now, three consecutive losses. To Swansea, Southampton, and Wolves. Swansea. Southampton. And Wolves.
It will probably get better, as the fixture list eases, as players return to fitness and form and the African Cup of Nations ends. When Liverpool get one, they'll probably get two and then three. But right now, it's getting worse. Every game. So, sure, it was a reserve line-up, but the rot continues and the rot worsens. The reserve line-up and the rot feature the failings we've seen time and time again this month.
And there are no signs of abating or improving.
And Liverpool host the runaway league leaders in a little more than 72 hours.
27 January 2017
Liverpool v Wolverhampton 01.28.17
7:30am ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1
Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.31.12
2-1 Liverpool (h) 09.24.11
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.22.11
0-1 Wolves (h) 12.29.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Southampton (h); 2-3 Swansea (h); 1-0 Plymouth (a)
Wolves: 1-3 Norwich (a); 1-0 Villa (h); 2-0 Stoke (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-0 Plymouth (a), 0-0 Plymouth (h)
Wolves: 2-0 Stoke (a)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino, Lallana, Origi 7; Coutinho, Sturridge 6; Milner 5; Can 3; Lovren, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Klavan, Matip, Woodburn 1
Wolves: Costa 9; Edwards 7; Cavaleiro, Doherty, Mason 4; Bödvarsson, Oniangue, Teixeira 2; Batth, Coady, Hause, Saville, Wallace1
Referee: Craig Pawson
Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Matip Gomez Moreno
Wijnaldum Henderson Can
Coutinho
Firmino Origi
I am of two minds about this.
It's still the FA Cup, even if made slightly more important by Liverpool's exit from the League Cup on Wednesday, and made slightly more important by successive home losses, but the FA Cup nonetheless. It ain't the league, and it certainly ain't a league match against Chelsea this coming Tuesday.
I want to think it's still predominantly an opportunity for the kids, a line-up more like that against Plymouth Argyle than not. It could well be this season's last senior opportunity, at least as starters, for a lot of these kids.
But that's probably not going to be the case.
Which is fair. Liverpool aren't in a good situation at the moment. Liverpool's only win in 2017 came in this competition, against a League Two side, and Liverpool very much need to get back to winning ways. That seems even more true with the league leaders to come to Anfield a matter of days after this.
That said, I've probably got too many senior players in the above guessed XI. I remain concerned about Henderson's lingering heel injury and Coutinho only recently back from an extended absence. Matip's in a similar situation – a lingering injury and not long back from an extended absence – but he's also much more in need of matches. Clyne's 50-50; it sounds like Klopp wants to start him if at all possible, but I'd be tempted to hold off until Tuesday regardless.
I also remain concerned about Firmino's utility out wide, whether on the right or left, which is why the above guess is shaped in a midfield diamond. Even if that's the case – which, again, there's a good chance it won't be – it'll still look 4-3-3 an awful lot of the time.
I want to see Gomez, especially when paired with Matip. I wouldn't mind seeing Moreno, although that's a dangerous thing to write. I expect to see Karius keep his place in the cups, again impressive against Southampton. There could well be spots for Stewart, Ejaria, or Woodburn even with a more senior XI.
As with Plymouth Argyle, I'm in the position of previewing opposition I know little about. And, not to be patronizing, but it's probably safe to assume we'll see a good deal of what we saw in that match. What we saw against Southampton. What we've seen in the majority of Liverpool matches of late. Opposition coming to Anfield and happy to sit deep, first and foremost and everything else focused on preventing Liverpool from scoring, congesting the final third, refusing to allow anything through the middle, forcing Liverpool out wide, then counter-attacking through direct football if and when given the chance.
That might be a bit unfair on Wolves. They've lost just two of their last seven matches, winning four, including a thorough and deserved 2-0 victory at full-strength Stoke in the last round. They're 18th in the Championship, but that has more to do with the manager fired earlier in the season – after taking over at the end of July, replacing Kenny Jackett, who'd managed the club for three years and got them promoted from League One – than the current one, a reasonable start to the season followed by just two wins from 15 from the end of August through November. Paul Lambert, appointed in November, has steadied the side over the last two and a half months, even if it's only seen Wolves climb a solitary place in the table.
Wolves hover right around the median in all of Ben Mayhew's Championship scatter graphics, which is a bit confusing for a side that sits 18th. It should provide a warning that Wolves can play, and if given the chance, Wolves can hurt Liverpool.
My best guess at an XI is what's listed in WhoScored's preview, also basically the XI which started the 1-3 loss at Norwich a week ago. Burgoyne; Iorfa, Stearman, Batth, Doherty; Price, Edwards; Costa, Mason, Weimann; Bödvarsson. Edwards has been at Wolves for seemingly forever, and played in the Wolverhampton team which (sigh) beat Roy Hodgson's Liverpool at Anfield in 2010. Mason scored against Liverpool in the 2012 League Cup final for Cardiff. Weimann, while at Aston Villa (under Paul Lambert), gave Liverpool fits on multiple occasions.
The two changes from last Saturday's match is that goalkeeper Carl Ikeme's suspended (oh joy, another opportunity for a back-up keeper to play out of his mind against Liverpool) and Cavaleiro doubtful through injury. Ex-Liverpool player Conor Coady's only started two of Wolves' four matches this month, his spot in midfield taken by Academy graduate Jack Price and more often used as right-back under Lambert.
Liverpool, no matter who starts, just need to stop the rot. It'd be nice to stay in this competition. It'd be even nicer to avoid a replay. But more important is Liverpool finding confidence and playing Liverpool football. And you're probably not going to find confidence without winning, and you're not winning without playing Liverpool football.
Play Liverpool football.
Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.31.12
2-1 Liverpool (h) 09.24.11
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.22.11
0-1 Wolves (h) 12.29.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Southampton (h); 2-3 Swansea (h); 1-0 Plymouth (a)
Wolves: 1-3 Norwich (a); 1-0 Villa (h); 2-0 Stoke (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-0 Plymouth (a), 0-0 Plymouth (h)
Wolves: 2-0 Stoke (a)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino, Lallana, Origi 7; Coutinho, Sturridge 6; Milner 5; Can 3; Lovren, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Klavan, Matip, Woodburn 1
Wolves: Costa 9; Edwards 7; Cavaleiro, Doherty, Mason 4; Bödvarsson, Oniangue, Teixeira 2; Batth, Coady, Hause, Saville, Wallace1
Referee: Craig Pawson
Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Matip Gomez Moreno
Wijnaldum Henderson Can
Coutinho
Firmino Origi
I am of two minds about this.
It's still the FA Cup, even if made slightly more important by Liverpool's exit from the League Cup on Wednesday, and made slightly more important by successive home losses, but the FA Cup nonetheless. It ain't the league, and it certainly ain't a league match against Chelsea this coming Tuesday.
I want to think it's still predominantly an opportunity for the kids, a line-up more like that against Plymouth Argyle than not. It could well be this season's last senior opportunity, at least as starters, for a lot of these kids.
But that's probably not going to be the case.
Klopp revealed he intends to name a ‘slightly more’ experienced team to that which twice faced Plymouth Argyle in the competition, though checks will be made on several players.
“It’s not final who we can line up tomorrow, because we had a few knocks after the game and have to wait a little bit,” he said at his pre-match press conference.
“But we’ll have enough and a very good team for tomorrow. We will not make 10 changes or something. A few changes we have to make."
Which is fair. Liverpool aren't in a good situation at the moment. Liverpool's only win in 2017 came in this competition, against a League Two side, and Liverpool very much need to get back to winning ways. That seems even more true with the league leaders to come to Anfield a matter of days after this.
That said, I've probably got too many senior players in the above guessed XI. I remain concerned about Henderson's lingering heel injury and Coutinho only recently back from an extended absence. Matip's in a similar situation – a lingering injury and not long back from an extended absence – but he's also much more in need of matches. Clyne's 50-50; it sounds like Klopp wants to start him if at all possible, but I'd be tempted to hold off until Tuesday regardless.
I also remain concerned about Firmino's utility out wide, whether on the right or left, which is why the above guess is shaped in a midfield diamond. Even if that's the case – which, again, there's a good chance it won't be – it'll still look 4-3-3 an awful lot of the time.
I want to see Gomez, especially when paired with Matip. I wouldn't mind seeing Moreno, although that's a dangerous thing to write. I expect to see Karius keep his place in the cups, again impressive against Southampton. There could well be spots for Stewart, Ejaria, or Woodburn even with a more senior XI.
As with Plymouth Argyle, I'm in the position of previewing opposition I know little about. And, not to be patronizing, but it's probably safe to assume we'll see a good deal of what we saw in that match. What we saw against Southampton. What we've seen in the majority of Liverpool matches of late. Opposition coming to Anfield and happy to sit deep, first and foremost and everything else focused on preventing Liverpool from scoring, congesting the final third, refusing to allow anything through the middle, forcing Liverpool out wide, then counter-attacking through direct football if and when given the chance.
That might be a bit unfair on Wolves. They've lost just two of their last seven matches, winning four, including a thorough and deserved 2-0 victory at full-strength Stoke in the last round. They're 18th in the Championship, but that has more to do with the manager fired earlier in the season – after taking over at the end of July, replacing Kenny Jackett, who'd managed the club for three years and got them promoted from League One – than the current one, a reasonable start to the season followed by just two wins from 15 from the end of August through November. Paul Lambert, appointed in November, has steadied the side over the last two and a half months, even if it's only seen Wolves climb a solitary place in the table.
Wolves hover right around the median in all of Ben Mayhew's Championship scatter graphics, which is a bit confusing for a side that sits 18th. It should provide a warning that Wolves can play, and if given the chance, Wolves can hurt Liverpool.
My best guess at an XI is what's listed in WhoScored's preview, also basically the XI which started the 1-3 loss at Norwich a week ago. Burgoyne; Iorfa, Stearman, Batth, Doherty; Price, Edwards; Costa, Mason, Weimann; Bödvarsson. Edwards has been at Wolves for seemingly forever, and played in the Wolverhampton team which (sigh) beat Roy Hodgson's Liverpool at Anfield in 2010. Mason scored against Liverpool in the 2012 League Cup final for Cardiff. Weimann, while at Aston Villa (under Paul Lambert), gave Liverpool fits on multiple occasions.
The two changes from last Saturday's match is that goalkeeper Carl Ikeme's suspended (oh joy, another opportunity for a back-up keeper to play out of his mind against Liverpool) and Cavaleiro doubtful through injury. Ex-Liverpool player Conor Coady's only started two of Wolves' four matches this month, his spot in midfield taken by Academy graduate Jack Price and more often used as right-back under Lambert.
Liverpool, no matter who starts, just need to stop the rot. It'd be nice to stay in this competition. It'd be even nicer to avoid a replay. But more important is Liverpool finding confidence and playing Liverpool football. And you're probably not going to find confidence without winning, and you're not winning without playing Liverpool football.
Play Liverpool football.
24 January 2017
Liverpool v Southampton 01.25.17
Southampton lead 1-0 after the first leg.
3pm ET, live in the US on BeIN Sports
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Southampton (a; League Cup) 01.11.17
0-0 (a) 11.19.16
2-3 Southampton (a) 03.20.16
6-1 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 12.02.15
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-3 Swansea (h); 1-0 Plymouth (a); 1-1 United (a)
Southampton: 3-0 Leicester (h); 1-0 Norwich (h); 0-1 Burnley (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 0-1 Southampton (a); 2-0 Leeds (h); 2-1 Tottenham (h); 3-0 Derby (a); 5-0 Burton Albion (a)
Southampton: 1-0 Liverpool (h); 2-0 Arsenal (a); 1-0 Sunderland (h); 2-0 Palace (h)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino, Lallana, Origi 7; Coutinho, Sturridge 6; Milner 5; Can 3; Lovren, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Klavan, Matip, Woodburn 1
Southampton: Austin 9; Rodriguez 5; Redmond 4; van Dijk 3; Bertrand, Boufal, Long, Tadic, Ward-Prowse 2; Clasie, Hesketh 1
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Lallana Henderson Wijnaldum
Sturridge Firmino Coutinho
If there's going to be a reaction to the failings of the last month, now's absolutely the time for it.
I have seen something like six different personnel suggestions for fixing Liverpool's attack, for how Liverpool should line-up without Sadio Mané and needing to overturn a one-goal deficit. And that's just from different Echo writers.
It should be Sturridge, playing central. It should be Sturridge, playing on the right. It should be Sturridge and Origi. What about Ojo or Woodburn? Can Trent Alexander-Arnold play further forward? What about Milner further forward with Moreno at left-back?
We're all blindly tossing darts at an unmarked board. That's where Liverpool's attack has gotten us of late.
My starting point is that Adam Lallana needs to play in midfield rather than wide right, with Emre Can the most likely to make way. He's been nowhere near as effective in the front three, and Liverpool badly need an effective Lallana.
And if that's the case, it comes down to whether it's Firmino central and Sturridge right or the opposite. I don't think Origi's in the discussion due to form, I don't think two strikers and a diamond midfield is in the discussion either. My belief is Firmino's more important and much, much better when in the middle – literally the only attacker who did anything good on Saturday, almost single-handedly rescuing the game for Liverpool.
So, Coutinho left, Firmino central, and Sturridge on the right, where he's at least capable of cutting inside to shoot on his stronger left foot and has the protection of Lallana and Clyne – better defenders than those on the opposite flank – when he does much less tracking back than anyone else who'd play in that role. What could possibly go wrong? Oh, right, the only time we've seen that front three start a match was 0-2 at Burnley.
Let's hope Liverpool have learned something in the subsequent months.
Otherwise, Joël Matip's finally back, which is no small matter for the defense. Karius will probably keep his place in goal for the cup matches, responsible for keeping this tie at just a 0-1 deficit.
How well Liverpool's attack plays will also have something to do with Southampton's personnel. Specifically, whether or not Virgil Van Dijk is fit.
Van Dijk has owned Liverpool in the last two meetings, in both league and cup. He's the main reason Liverpool have been held scoreless in 180 minutes against Southampton. He picked up an ankle injury in the second half of Saturday's match and seems unlikely to play, but hasn't been completely ruled out. And his possible absence makes Southampton's job even harder considering Jose Fonte's recent exodus to West Ham in search of one last big pay day.
Austin, Boufal, Hesketh, and Targett are definitely out. Steven Davis, who's missed all three matches since the last meeting, is – like van Dijk – doubtful.
So let's guess an XI of Forster; Soares, Yoshida, Stephens, Bertrand; Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Clasie; Redmond, Rodriguez, Tadic. Højbjerg and Harrison Reed are other options in midfield. Shane Long could start up front instead of Rodriguez; both are scoring goals lately.
Southampton, still struggling with the aforementioned injuries, have improved since the win over Liverpool two weeks ago. Coming into that fixture, they were winless in four, including three successive league losses. They proceeded to lose the next match, 1-0 at Burnley (not naming names, but better than some sides have done at Burnley), but beat Norwich in a replay with a much-changed XI then housed Leicester over the weekend, scoring three goals in a match for only the fifth time this season in all competitions and the first time in a little over a month.
Chances are that this match looks a lot more like the league meeting than the last leg. A lot of teams have sat deep and solely defended at Anfield. That was probably the most defensive of any of them, regardless of Klopp's comments post-Sunderland.
And it worked to perfection, not only holding Liverpool scoreless but severely limiting Liverpool's shots and shots on-target. And that was with a front three of Coutinho, Firmino, and Mané.
All Southampton need to do is hold Liverpool scoreless. But Liverpool need to hold Southampton scoreless as well. Away goals only count after extra time, but they still count after extra-time. A one-goal Liverpool lead, no matter the score line, gets us 30 more minutes of football, but if it's anything other than 1-0, Southampton win without penalties.
I remain concerned about Liverpool's ability to score two or more, to get or maintain a two-goal lead. And, considering where we were two months ago, that remains an amazing statement.
3pm ET, live in the US on BeIN Sports
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Southampton (a; League Cup) 01.11.17
0-0 (a) 11.19.16
2-3 Southampton (a) 03.20.16
6-1 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 12.02.15
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-3 Swansea (h); 1-0 Plymouth (a); 1-1 United (a)
Southampton: 3-0 Leicester (h); 1-0 Norwich (h); 0-1 Burnley (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 0-1 Southampton (a); 2-0 Leeds (h); 2-1 Tottenham (h); 3-0 Derby (a); 5-0 Burton Albion (a)
Southampton: 1-0 Liverpool (h); 2-0 Arsenal (a); 1-0 Sunderland (h); 2-0 Palace (h)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino, Lallana, Origi 7; Coutinho, Sturridge 6; Milner 5; Can 3; Lovren, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Klavan, Matip, Woodburn 1
Southampton: Austin 9; Rodriguez 5; Redmond 4; van Dijk 3; Bertrand, Boufal, Long, Tadic, Ward-Prowse 2; Clasie, Hesketh 1
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Lallana Henderson Wijnaldum
Sturridge Firmino Coutinho
If there's going to be a reaction to the failings of the last month, now's absolutely the time for it.
I have seen something like six different personnel suggestions for fixing Liverpool's attack, for how Liverpool should line-up without Sadio Mané and needing to overturn a one-goal deficit. And that's just from different Echo writers.
It should be Sturridge, playing central. It should be Sturridge, playing on the right. It should be Sturridge and Origi. What about Ojo or Woodburn? Can Trent Alexander-Arnold play further forward? What about Milner further forward with Moreno at left-back?
We're all blindly tossing darts at an unmarked board. That's where Liverpool's attack has gotten us of late.
My starting point is that Adam Lallana needs to play in midfield rather than wide right, with Emre Can the most likely to make way. He's been nowhere near as effective in the front three, and Liverpool badly need an effective Lallana.
And if that's the case, it comes down to whether it's Firmino central and Sturridge right or the opposite. I don't think Origi's in the discussion due to form, I don't think two strikers and a diamond midfield is in the discussion either. My belief is Firmino's more important and much, much better when in the middle – literally the only attacker who did anything good on Saturday, almost single-handedly rescuing the game for Liverpool.
So, Coutinho left, Firmino central, and Sturridge on the right, where he's at least capable of cutting inside to shoot on his stronger left foot and has the protection of Lallana and Clyne – better defenders than those on the opposite flank – when he does much less tracking back than anyone else who'd play in that role. What could possibly go wrong? Oh, right, the only time we've seen that front three start a match was 0-2 at Burnley.
Let's hope Liverpool have learned something in the subsequent months.
Otherwise, Joël Matip's finally back, which is no small matter for the defense. Karius will probably keep his place in goal for the cup matches, responsible for keeping this tie at just a 0-1 deficit.
How well Liverpool's attack plays will also have something to do with Southampton's personnel. Specifically, whether or not Virgil Van Dijk is fit.
Van Dijk has owned Liverpool in the last two meetings, in both league and cup. He's the main reason Liverpool have been held scoreless in 180 minutes against Southampton. He picked up an ankle injury in the second half of Saturday's match and seems unlikely to play, but hasn't been completely ruled out. And his possible absence makes Southampton's job even harder considering Jose Fonte's recent exodus to West Ham in search of one last big pay day.
Austin, Boufal, Hesketh, and Targett are definitely out. Steven Davis, who's missed all three matches since the last meeting, is – like van Dijk – doubtful.
So let's guess an XI of Forster; Soares, Yoshida, Stephens, Bertrand; Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Clasie; Redmond, Rodriguez, Tadic. Højbjerg and Harrison Reed are other options in midfield. Shane Long could start up front instead of Rodriguez; both are scoring goals lately.
Southampton, still struggling with the aforementioned injuries, have improved since the win over Liverpool two weeks ago. Coming into that fixture, they were winless in four, including three successive league losses. They proceeded to lose the next match, 1-0 at Burnley (not naming names, but better than some sides have done at Burnley), but beat Norwich in a replay with a much-changed XI then housed Leicester over the weekend, scoring three goals in a match for only the fifth time this season in all competitions and the first time in a little over a month.
Chances are that this match looks a lot more like the league meeting than the last leg. A lot of teams have sat deep and solely defended at Anfield. That was probably the most defensive of any of them, regardless of Klopp's comments post-Sunderland.
And it worked to perfection, not only holding Liverpool scoreless but severely limiting Liverpool's shots and shots on-target. And that was with a front three of Coutinho, Firmino, and Mané.
All Southampton need to do is hold Liverpool scoreless. But Liverpool need to hold Southampton scoreless as well. Away goals only count after extra time, but they still count after extra-time. A one-goal Liverpool lead, no matter the score line, gets us 30 more minutes of football, but if it's anything other than 1-0, Southampton win without penalties.
I remain concerned about Liverpool's ability to score two or more, to get or maintain a two-goal lead. And, considering where we were two months ago, that remains an amazing statement.
23 January 2017
Visualized: Liverpool 2-3 Swansea
Previous Match Infographics: Manchester United (a), Sunderland (a), Manchester City (a), Stoke (h), Everton (a), Middlesbrough (a), West Ham (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a), Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), United (h), Swansea (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Tottenham (a), Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)
All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.
I don't have much to add to Saturday's match review except to reiterate how unforgivable almost all of this was. And on a weekend where Tottenham, City, and United also dropped points. Tottenham and City have the consolation of doing it to each other, United while getting a late equalizer at a ground that's difficult to go to.
They also all at least got a point. Meanwhile, Liverpool lost to the worst team in the division at home.
So, in lieu of writing a bunch about a match that you don't want to read about, here are a few charts and also some words because I really can't help myself.
Admittedly, Coutinho's injury isn't the sole catalyst, by far. There's the much busier winter schedule, defenses realizing that all they need to do is still deep then launch long to avoid the counter-press, Henderson's injury, Matip's injury then unavailability, Mané's absence in the last two league games, both Sturridge and Origi wildly off form and we're not quite sure how they fit into this system which seemingly requires Firmino up top. But it's a handy dividing line, especially as it happened right when fixtures became more frequent.
But, you say, "Well, that doesn't really matter when first the defense was bad and dumb to start the second half on Saturday, then Liverpool scored twice and looked on pace for a third, and then the defense was bad and dumb again and Klavan committed an error, and that's the match."
And there's something to that. Liverpool's points per game during this less-than-fun stretch recovered almost exactly parallel to a drop in Liverpool's goals conceded, even as shots and shots on-target allowed remained on exactly the same pace. Liverpool have been notably bad and/or dumb defensively in six or so league matches by my count this season (at Burnley, at Swansea, at Palace, at Bournemouth, at Sunderland, v Swansea), and won two, drew one, and lost three – all three of Liverpool's league losses this season.
Yet I still remain of the belief that Liverpool's defense pretty much is what it is. It is better with Matip, it will probably be better with Gomez (if only beginning next season), and Liverpool should probably look to buy another center-back this summer. No matter who plays, Liverpool will do a decent job limiting opposition shots. Sometimes, Liverpool will also commit dumb errors and/or fail on a set play. Liverpool have at least gotten better at both of those things as the season's gone on, even if that's hard to remember after matches like Saturday's.
If Liverpool's attack is firing at the start of the match, rather than only after going 0-2 down, all of this is probably a moot point. As it was when hosting Leicester, Hull, and Watford earlier this season. There were only six first-half shots, but five of them were in the Danger Zone, one of them (Can's errant header) a clear-cut chance. Five of six were off-target, the other blocked.
Liverpool's successes in the last season and a half still mainly derive from the successes of Liverpool's attack more often than not. More often than not, Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool will live and die with its attack. And right now, this ain't living.
All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.
I don't have much to add to Saturday's match review except to reiterate how unforgivable almost all of this was. And on a weekend where Tottenham, City, and United also dropped points. Tottenham and City have the consolation of doing it to each other, United while getting a late equalizer at a ground that's difficult to go to.
They also all at least got a point. Meanwhile, Liverpool lost to the worst team in the division at home.
So, in lieu of writing a bunch about a match that you don't want to read about, here are a few charts and also some words because I really can't help myself.
Admittedly, Coutinho's injury isn't the sole catalyst, by far. There's the much busier winter schedule, defenses realizing that all they need to do is still deep then launch long to avoid the counter-press, Henderson's injury, Matip's injury then unavailability, Mané's absence in the last two league games, both Sturridge and Origi wildly off form and we're not quite sure how they fit into this system which seemingly requires Firmino up top. But it's a handy dividing line, especially as it happened right when fixtures became more frequent.
But, you say, "Well, that doesn't really matter when first the defense was bad and dumb to start the second half on Saturday, then Liverpool scored twice and looked on pace for a third, and then the defense was bad and dumb again and Klavan committed an error, and that's the match."
And there's something to that. Liverpool's points per game during this less-than-fun stretch recovered almost exactly parallel to a drop in Liverpool's goals conceded, even as shots and shots on-target allowed remained on exactly the same pace. Liverpool have been notably bad and/or dumb defensively in six or so league matches by my count this season (at Burnley, at Swansea, at Palace, at Bournemouth, at Sunderland, v Swansea), and won two, drew one, and lost three – all three of Liverpool's league losses this season.
Yet I still remain of the belief that Liverpool's defense pretty much is what it is. It is better with Matip, it will probably be better with Gomez (if only beginning next season), and Liverpool should probably look to buy another center-back this summer. No matter who plays, Liverpool will do a decent job limiting opposition shots. Sometimes, Liverpool will also commit dumb errors and/or fail on a set play. Liverpool have at least gotten better at both of those things as the season's gone on, even if that's hard to remember after matches like Saturday's.
If Liverpool's attack is firing at the start of the match, rather than only after going 0-2 down, all of this is probably a moot point. As it was when hosting Leicester, Hull, and Watford earlier this season. There were only six first-half shots, but five of them were in the Danger Zone, one of them (Can's errant header) a clear-cut chance. Five of six were off-target, the other blocked.
Liverpool's successes in the last season and a half still mainly derive from the successes of Liverpool's attack more often than not. More often than not, Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool will live and die with its attack. And right now, this ain't living.
21 January 2017
Liverpool 2-3 Swansea
Goals:
Llorente 48' 52'
Firmino 55' 69'
Sigurðsson 74'
2017 remains an uncontrollable, inexhaustible garbage fire.
We got every single bit of Bad Liverpool, in separate phases. A dire attack against nine defenders for the entire first half, as in almost every 2017 match so far. Dumb and avoidable concessions from a corner then cross in quick succession after halftime. Liverpool finally starting to play after going 0-2 down and actual hope with two goals in 14 minutes from Firmino to equalize, but then an unlikely Swansea winner five minutes later on a counter, unable to stop the attack before a Liverpool player accidentally set up the goalscorer.
Three goals conceded from three shots on target. Each one the type of goal that Liverpool had been prone to conceding but had been better about not conceding lately: the second ball from a corner, a towering header over (multiple) defenders, and both stupid and unlucky on the counter-attack when vainly and fruitlessly for the go-ahead goal.
Against the bottom side in the league. Who hadn't scored three goals away from home in the league all season. Who'd conceded three or more goals in 11 of 21 league matches this season. Who'd lost six of their last seven games by a 20-4 margin. Who'd never won at Anfield. Ever. For Liverpool's first loss at Anfield in 370 days.
It'd be unbelievable if it weren't, you know, Liverpool.
There is literally zero consolation here. There are almost no positives except for Firmino's almost single-handed fight-back, which is muted by all the evil which came before and after.
It's been hidden by the horrific results and three different managers, but Swansea had shown at least bits of this potential before. The reverse fixture was one of Liverpool's worst performances of the season, only a Liverpool win because of exceptionally bad Swansea finishing (which was not the case today) and more single-handed Firmino heroics in scoring the equalizer and earning the penalty winner. 4-0 at Arsenal is one of those results which doesn't do the match justice, Swansea the better side until Giroud's goal from a fortunate deflection, then proceeding to collapse, giving Arsenal two own goals then a late defensive error.
The first goal matters. As it did today.
Swansea's plan worked better than Liverpool's plan. A side that'd been free-flowing before Coutinho's injury and before Liverpool had to play two matches per week almost every week for the last two months once again wasn't. Nearly every Swansea player sat in Swansea's half for the entire first half. Four defenders, three central midfielders, and two very deep wingers blocked off pretty much everything in the final third, coupled with an incredible performance from Llorente on Henderson, closing down Liverpool's necessary metronome at every opportunity.
And it led to the first time this season that Liverpool's been held without a shot on-target in a first half at Anfield this season. The only other times it's happened this season were the 1-0 win at Everton and (*drum roll*) 2-1 win at Swansea.
Then that second half happened. And, while Llorente was boss and thoroughly punished Liverpool, it was much more about what Liverpool both did and failed to do than what Swansea did.
Swansea's first attack of the half, which only resulted in a corner because Lovren idiotically tried to head a hopeful cross over the lone attacker back to Mignolet and completely failed. Then, Lovren lost Fernandez on the ball in, and Swansea reacted quicker than Liverpool to the scramble. Four minutes later, Swansea break, literally from a failed Liverpool attack because Coutinho tried to center to Lallana instead of shooting from inside the box and put it two yards behind him. Nice interplay from new signings Carroll and Olsson, then Carroll's cross to Llorente, who's surrounded by three Liverpool defenders (Milner, Wijnaldum, Klavan, responsible in that order). Llorente wins easily.
0-2 down, 52 minutes gone, and hey, welcome to the match Liverpool thank you for showing up. Liverpool's 16th cross of the match finally leads to something: good from Milner and even better from Firmino to get in front of Olsson and head past Fabianski. 14 minutes later, even better from Firmino, good control from Wijnaldum to get into space on the left but a lofted, hopeful cross in. But Firmino's chest control to take away two defenders and left-footer on the half-volley and woof.
2-2 against the bottom side in the league who'd conceded that many goals, and at Anfield. 25 or so minutes to play. One point is the absolute minimum and three should be likely, no matter how the first 55 minutes went.
Ha.
Less than five minutes later, Liverpool have basically everyone forward, but the attack breaks down and Fabianski claims. A hopeful kick long. Swansea win the second ball, then Llorente holds up play up excellently to allow attackers to get forward. Fer gets away from two, Llorente finds space in front of Lovren to set up Carroll, and somehow Klavan's tackle falls perfectly for a wide open Sigurðsson. Disappointing And Unlucky: The Liverpool Story. Throwing Away Points In The Last 20 Minutes of Matches: The Liverpool Story.
And from there, toilet. Liverpool back to being unable to break Swansea down, the lone noteworthy chances in quick succession from Lallana, first a lucky ricochet deflected onto the bar then a header over. Substitutions that didn't help Liverpool, and probably made them worse.
First, Sturridge for Coutinho – inoffensive rather than troublesome, Sturridge unable to make a difference but not really changing proceedings in either direction, with Coutinho only able to complete 56 minutes probably what bothers me most. Then, Origi for Can, planned before Liverpool's equalizer but still gone through with after scoring. That unbalanced Liverpool. Maybe it doesn't help, maybe it does, but having Can as at least another body in midfield – no matter how mediocre (at best) he was today – makes stopping Swansea's third at least slightly more likely. Origi's total contribution probably equalled Sturridge – the former put a tame shot on-target, the latter created the chance for Lallana's header, and that's about it from either – but the effect was to further unbalance a side that had actually started to get its act together. This is not the first time that's happened (*glares at the Bournemouth result again*).
2017 has started in the worst possible manner. And Liverpool are in deep, deep trouble. Despite results like today's (and Burnley, and Bournemouth, and Sunderland, and ...), Liverpool remain a reasonably good side, at least usually – in goals scored, chances created, and shots allowed. Much better than previous seasons. Analytics still really like this side, and they also pass the eye test more often than not, even without Mané or Coutinho, which admittedly makes life that much harder.
Reasonably good is not good enough this season. Nowhere near good enough. Not with the rest of the Top 6 playing like they are. Liverpool could be fifth by the end of the day, just two points ahead of sixth, which is currently a side they were ten points ahead of less than two months ago. Manchester City is currently the only side in that group stuttering as Liverpool's stuttered – the other four have been excellent – and you look at City's squad then Liverpool's and it's not hard to wonder who has a better shot of fixing things quicker.
There are 16 matches left in this league campaign. Liverpool will have to fight like hell, and dramatically improve, to even remain in the Champions League places.
Llorente 48' 52'
Firmino 55' 69'
Sigurðsson 74'
2017 remains an uncontrollable, inexhaustible garbage fire.
We got every single bit of Bad Liverpool, in separate phases. A dire attack against nine defenders for the entire first half, as in almost every 2017 match so far. Dumb and avoidable concessions from a corner then cross in quick succession after halftime. Liverpool finally starting to play after going 0-2 down and actual hope with two goals in 14 minutes from Firmino to equalize, but then an unlikely Swansea winner five minutes later on a counter, unable to stop the attack before a Liverpool player accidentally set up the goalscorer.
Three goals conceded from three shots on target. Each one the type of goal that Liverpool had been prone to conceding but had been better about not conceding lately: the second ball from a corner, a towering header over (multiple) defenders, and both stupid and unlucky on the counter-attack when vainly and fruitlessly for the go-ahead goal.
Against the bottom side in the league. Who hadn't scored three goals away from home in the league all season. Who'd conceded three or more goals in 11 of 21 league matches this season. Who'd lost six of their last seven games by a 20-4 margin. Who'd never won at Anfield. Ever. For Liverpool's first loss at Anfield in 370 days.
It'd be unbelievable if it weren't, you know, Liverpool.
There is literally zero consolation here. There are almost no positives except for Firmino's almost single-handed fight-back, which is muted by all the evil which came before and after.
It's been hidden by the horrific results and three different managers, but Swansea had shown at least bits of this potential before. The reverse fixture was one of Liverpool's worst performances of the season, only a Liverpool win because of exceptionally bad Swansea finishing (which was not the case today) and more single-handed Firmino heroics in scoring the equalizer and earning the penalty winner. 4-0 at Arsenal is one of those results which doesn't do the match justice, Swansea the better side until Giroud's goal from a fortunate deflection, then proceeding to collapse, giving Arsenal two own goals then a late defensive error.
The first goal matters. As it did today.
Swansea's plan worked better than Liverpool's plan. A side that'd been free-flowing before Coutinho's injury and before Liverpool had to play two matches per week almost every week for the last two months once again wasn't. Nearly every Swansea player sat in Swansea's half for the entire first half. Four defenders, three central midfielders, and two very deep wingers blocked off pretty much everything in the final third, coupled with an incredible performance from Llorente on Henderson, closing down Liverpool's necessary metronome at every opportunity.
And it led to the first time this season that Liverpool's been held without a shot on-target in a first half at Anfield this season. The only other times it's happened this season were the 1-0 win at Everton and (*drum roll*) 2-1 win at Swansea.
Then that second half happened. And, while Llorente was boss and thoroughly punished Liverpool, it was much more about what Liverpool both did and failed to do than what Swansea did.
Swansea's first attack of the half, which only resulted in a corner because Lovren idiotically tried to head a hopeful cross over the lone attacker back to Mignolet and completely failed. Then, Lovren lost Fernandez on the ball in, and Swansea reacted quicker than Liverpool to the scramble. Four minutes later, Swansea break, literally from a failed Liverpool attack because Coutinho tried to center to Lallana instead of shooting from inside the box and put it two yards behind him. Nice interplay from new signings Carroll and Olsson, then Carroll's cross to Llorente, who's surrounded by three Liverpool defenders (Milner, Wijnaldum, Klavan, responsible in that order). Llorente wins easily.
0-2 down, 52 minutes gone, and hey, welcome to the match Liverpool thank you for showing up. Liverpool's 16th cross of the match finally leads to something: good from Milner and even better from Firmino to get in front of Olsson and head past Fabianski. 14 minutes later, even better from Firmino, good control from Wijnaldum to get into space on the left but a lofted, hopeful cross in. But Firmino's chest control to take away two defenders and left-footer on the half-volley and woof.
2-2 against the bottom side in the league who'd conceded that many goals, and at Anfield. 25 or so minutes to play. One point is the absolute minimum and three should be likely, no matter how the first 55 minutes went.
Ha.
Less than five minutes later, Liverpool have basically everyone forward, but the attack breaks down and Fabianski claims. A hopeful kick long. Swansea win the second ball, then Llorente holds up play up excellently to allow attackers to get forward. Fer gets away from two, Llorente finds space in front of Lovren to set up Carroll, and somehow Klavan's tackle falls perfectly for a wide open Sigurðsson. Disappointing And Unlucky: The Liverpool Story. Throwing Away Points In The Last 20 Minutes of Matches: The Liverpool Story.
And from there, toilet. Liverpool back to being unable to break Swansea down, the lone noteworthy chances in quick succession from Lallana, first a lucky ricochet deflected onto the bar then a header over. Substitutions that didn't help Liverpool, and probably made them worse.
First, Sturridge for Coutinho – inoffensive rather than troublesome, Sturridge unable to make a difference but not really changing proceedings in either direction, with Coutinho only able to complete 56 minutes probably what bothers me most. Then, Origi for Can, planned before Liverpool's equalizer but still gone through with after scoring. That unbalanced Liverpool. Maybe it doesn't help, maybe it does, but having Can as at least another body in midfield – no matter how mediocre (at best) he was today – makes stopping Swansea's third at least slightly more likely. Origi's total contribution probably equalled Sturridge – the former put a tame shot on-target, the latter created the chance for Lallana's header, and that's about it from either – but the effect was to further unbalance a side that had actually started to get its act together. This is not the first time that's happened (*glares at the Bournemouth result again*).
2017 has started in the worst possible manner. And Liverpool are in deep, deep trouble. Despite results like today's (and Burnley, and Bournemouth, and Sunderland, and ...), Liverpool remain a reasonably good side, at least usually – in goals scored, chances created, and shots allowed. Much better than previous seasons. Analytics still really like this side, and they also pass the eye test more often than not, even without Mané or Coutinho, which admittedly makes life that much harder.
Reasonably good is not good enough this season. Nowhere near good enough. Not with the rest of the Top 6 playing like they are. Liverpool could be fifth by the end of the day, just two points ahead of sixth, which is currently a side they were ten points ahead of less than two months ago. Manchester City is currently the only side in that group stuttering as Liverpool's stuttered – the other four have been excellent – and you look at City's squad then Liverpool's and it's not hard to wonder who has a better shot of fixing things quicker.
There are 16 matches left in this league campaign. Liverpool will have to fight like hell, and dramatically improve, to even remain in the Champions League places.
20 January 2017
Liverpool v Swansea 01.21.17
7:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports
Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 10.01.16
1-3 Swansea (a) 05.01.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 03.16.15
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Plymouth Argyle (a); 1-1 United (a); 0-1 Southampton (a)
Swansea: 0-4 Arsenal (h); 0-2 Hull (a); 2-1 Crystal Palace (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Lallana 7; Firmino, Milner 6; Coutinho 5; Origi 4; Can 3; Lovren, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Swansea: Fer, Llorente 6; Sigurðsson 5; Routledge 2; Baston, Maison, Rangel, van der Hoorn 1
Referee: Kevin Friend
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Klavan Milner
Can Henderson Wijnaldum
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
We're almost back to full-strength Liverpool. It's very much needed.
I'm annoyed to say, and it's probably reactionary given how and who Liverpool have played recently, but neither Sturridge nor Origi have done enough in recent weeks to get another start now that almost everyone's fit.
As of Klopp's press conference an hour ago, FIFA hadn't been in touch about Joël Matip. Which has caught everyone by surprise, I know. There's still a few hours before close of business but, knowing FIFA, chances are Liverpool are without him for no good reason again.
There's better news on Nat Clyne, back in full training for the first time since his rib injury. Which probably makes him 50-50 or so for tomorrow. Alexander-Arnold could deputize again, growing into the game after a tough start at United and one of Liverpool's better players (especially the best defender) once Plymouth needed to attack on Wednesday. But if Clyne's even close to fit enough, Clyne will play, as per usual.
Otherwise, everyone's available except Sadio Mané, at the African Cup of Nations and scoring for fun, having tallied in both of Senegal's matches so far. Most importantly, both Coutinho and Henderson are back, the former in line for his first league start since injury two months ago.
Liverpool have desperately missed both, especially Coutinho. Yes, they've already featured in a couple of games, but building up match fitness takes time, especially in the case of a player who missed two months. You're probably sick of me writing it, but Liverpool are still yet to score an open play goal in 2017, having tallied from three corners and the penalty spot in the five games so far. Liverpool's lone win in those five games came on Wednesday, that narrow 1-0 victory at League Two Plymouth Argyle, a match that would've gone to extra time had Jake Jervis' 75th-minute set play clear-cut chance gone inside rather than onto the post.
We need Liverpool to be a lot better than they've been since the start of the month.
Meanwhile, Swansea make no sense. They should not be this bad. They should not be in such disarray.
Gylfi Sigurðsson's great. Ki Sung-yueng and Jack Cork are competent midfielders; Routledge, Dyer, and Fer are competent attackers who've drifted around the league for years, valuable players in admittedly mediocre-to-bad teams. Both Amat and Fernandez have stifled Liverpool attackers in previous contests. Llorente's still scoring, at age 31 in his first Premiership season. Borja Baston is the club's record signing and he's started all of four league matches.
They're on their third manager of the season – this'll be Paul Clement's third match; they're yet to win or draw and yet to score – and the fourth if you count Alan Curtis' two games as caretaker.
They've conceded 49 goals in 21 league matches, which is near-record pace. They've conceded three goals in seven matches, four goals in three matches, and five goals in one. They've conceded 8.2% of all the Premier League goals scored this season.
They've lost six of their last seven matches, six in the league and one in the FA Cup, outscored 20-4 in those seven matches.
And yet, they're only two points from safety, and two rather than one solely because of goal difference, because Palace, Hull, and Sunderland have been nearly as bad.
And yet, they gave Liverpool an incredibly difficult time in the reverse fixture last October, unlucky to not get at least a point after honest-to-goodness dominating the first half and then missing a clear-cut chance to equalize in second-half injury time.
And yet, in Paul Clement's first league match as manager last weekend, they were actually good against Arsenal until they very much weren't, the better side until conceding against the run of play and then blown away 4-0. After the 37th-minute opener, they gave Arsenal two own goals and an Routledge error leading to the fourth.
Swansea make no sense.
And given that Swansea make no sense, I'm at a loss to guess the XI. Chances are it won't be what I'd pick without context, knowing most of the players but not especially aware of form or relation to teammates or manager.
Chances are, it'll look like the team that lost against Arsenal, but with one or two changes from a manager still getting to know his squad. Something like Fabianski; Naughton, Fernandez, Mawson, Olsson; Cork, Carroll; Sigurðsson, Fer, Routledge; Llorente. Both Carroll and Olsson are new signings, the former in hopes of fixing what's been a bafflingly bad midfield (Leon Britton doesn't even make the match day squad anymore), the latter adding pace to a stolid back-line and depth with perma-fixture Neil Taylor out for an extended spell. Barrow, Montero, and Narsingh join Taylor on the injury list.
There's seemingly two ways this goes. Ideally, a nearly full-strength Liverpool finds its form – specifically its goalscoring form – against not good opposition at Anfield, and we get something in the vein of 5-1 Hull or 6-1 Watford. Even with Liverpool struggling for goals and Swansea likely to be better than they have been, it's possible, considering Swansea's form and that it's at Anfield. But – and maybe it's my perpetual pessimism – just as likely is a Swansea revival, able to do what Sunderland, Plymouth, and others have done to Liverpool lately, as Liverpool most notably continue to stutter in front of goal, better at the back in recent weeks but still prone to calamity.
How it goes is up to Liverpool.
Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 10.01.16
1-3 Swansea (a) 05.01.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 03.16.15
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Plymouth Argyle (a); 1-1 United (a); 0-1 Southampton (a)
Swansea: 0-4 Arsenal (h); 0-2 Hull (a); 2-1 Crystal Palace (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Lallana 7; Firmino, Milner 6; Coutinho 5; Origi 4; Can 3; Lovren, Sturridge, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Matip 1
Swansea: Fer, Llorente 6; Sigurðsson 5; Routledge 2; Baston, Maison, Rangel, van der Hoorn 1
Referee: Kevin Friend
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Klavan Milner
Can Henderson Wijnaldum
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
We're almost back to full-strength Liverpool. It's very much needed.
I'm annoyed to say, and it's probably reactionary given how and who Liverpool have played recently, but neither Sturridge nor Origi have done enough in recent weeks to get another start now that almost everyone's fit.
As of Klopp's press conference an hour ago, FIFA hadn't been in touch about Joël Matip. Which has caught everyone by surprise, I know. There's still a few hours before close of business but, knowing FIFA, chances are Liverpool are without him for no good reason again.
There's better news on Nat Clyne, back in full training for the first time since his rib injury. Which probably makes him 50-50 or so for tomorrow. Alexander-Arnold could deputize again, growing into the game after a tough start at United and one of Liverpool's better players (especially the best defender) once Plymouth needed to attack on Wednesday. But if Clyne's even close to fit enough, Clyne will play, as per usual.
Otherwise, everyone's available except Sadio Mané, at the African Cup of Nations and scoring for fun, having tallied in both of Senegal's matches so far. Most importantly, both Coutinho and Henderson are back, the former in line for his first league start since injury two months ago.
Liverpool have desperately missed both, especially Coutinho. Yes, they've already featured in a couple of games, but building up match fitness takes time, especially in the case of a player who missed two months. You're probably sick of me writing it, but Liverpool are still yet to score an open play goal in 2017, having tallied from three corners and the penalty spot in the five games so far. Liverpool's lone win in those five games came on Wednesday, that narrow 1-0 victory at League Two Plymouth Argyle, a match that would've gone to extra time had Jake Jervis' 75th-minute set play clear-cut chance gone inside rather than onto the post.
We need Liverpool to be a lot better than they've been since the start of the month.
Meanwhile, Swansea make no sense. They should not be this bad. They should not be in such disarray.
Gylfi Sigurðsson's great. Ki Sung-yueng and Jack Cork are competent midfielders; Routledge, Dyer, and Fer are competent attackers who've drifted around the league for years, valuable players in admittedly mediocre-to-bad teams. Both Amat and Fernandez have stifled Liverpool attackers in previous contests. Llorente's still scoring, at age 31 in his first Premiership season. Borja Baston is the club's record signing and he's started all of four league matches.
They're on their third manager of the season – this'll be Paul Clement's third match; they're yet to win or draw and yet to score – and the fourth if you count Alan Curtis' two games as caretaker.
They've conceded 49 goals in 21 league matches, which is near-record pace. They've conceded three goals in seven matches, four goals in three matches, and five goals in one. They've conceded 8.2% of all the Premier League goals scored this season.
They've lost six of their last seven matches, six in the league and one in the FA Cup, outscored 20-4 in those seven matches.
And yet, they're only two points from safety, and two rather than one solely because of goal difference, because Palace, Hull, and Sunderland have been nearly as bad.
And yet, they gave Liverpool an incredibly difficult time in the reverse fixture last October, unlucky to not get at least a point after honest-to-goodness dominating the first half and then missing a clear-cut chance to equalize in second-half injury time.
And yet, in Paul Clement's first league match as manager last weekend, they were actually good against Arsenal until they very much weren't, the better side until conceding against the run of play and then blown away 4-0. After the 37th-minute opener, they gave Arsenal two own goals and an Routledge error leading to the fourth.
Swansea make no sense.
And given that Swansea make no sense, I'm at a loss to guess the XI. Chances are it won't be what I'd pick without context, knowing most of the players but not especially aware of form or relation to teammates or manager.
Chances are, it'll look like the team that lost against Arsenal, but with one or two changes from a manager still getting to know his squad. Something like Fabianski; Naughton, Fernandez, Mawson, Olsson; Cork, Carroll; Sigurðsson, Fer, Routledge; Llorente. Both Carroll and Olsson are new signings, the former in hopes of fixing what's been a bafflingly bad midfield (Leon Britton doesn't even make the match day squad anymore), the latter adding pace to a stolid back-line and depth with perma-fixture Neil Taylor out for an extended spell. Barrow, Montero, and Narsingh join Taylor on the injury list.
There's seemingly two ways this goes. Ideally, a nearly full-strength Liverpool finds its form – specifically its goalscoring form – against not good opposition at Anfield, and we get something in the vein of 5-1 Hull or 6-1 Watford. Even with Liverpool struggling for goals and Swansea likely to be better than they have been, it's possible, considering Swansea's form and that it's at Anfield. But – and maybe it's my perpetual pessimism – just as likely is a Swansea revival, able to do what Sunderland, Plymouth, and others have done to Liverpool lately, as Liverpool most notably continue to stutter in front of goal, better at the back in recent weeks but still prone to calamity.
How it goes is up to Liverpool.
17 January 2017
Liverpool at Plymouth Argyle 01.18.17
2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 01.08.17
3-2 Liverpool (a) 04.28.62
2-1 Liverpool (h) 12.09.61
1-1 (h) 03.24.61
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Manchester Utd (a); 0-1 Southampton (a); 0-0 Plymouth Argyle (h)
Plymouth: 4-2 Stevenage (h); 0-0 Liverpool (a); 0-1 Barnet (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 0-0 Plymouth Argyle (h)
Plymouth: 0-0 Liverpool (a); 1-0 Newport County aet (a), 0-0 Newport County (h); 2-1 Mansfield (a)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino, Lallana, Origi 7; Coutinho, Milner, Sturridge 6; Can 3; Lovren, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Klavan, Matip, Woodburn 1
Plymouth: Carey 10; Jervis 8; Slew 6; Tanner 5; Bradley, Bulvitis 3; Donaldson, Garita, Smith, Songo'o, Spencer, Threlkeld 2; Fox, Goodwillie 1
Referee: Graham Scott
Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Alexander-Arnold Lovren Gomez Moreno
Ejaria Stewart Wijnaldum
Ojo Sturridge Coutinho
Parsing press conference quotes is fun.
So, it'll be the "same case" but "different to the team" which started at Anfield. Okay. I'm taking that to mean a couple more senior players in the starting XI, but still a relatively young and inexperienced side. I may well be wrong.
Let's guess who anyway.
First, Sturridge. Because why not. Origi started on Sunday, Origi didn't do much, Sturridge remains Liverpool's best natural goalscorer. And let's go with Coutinho, who should be ready to start after two 30-minute substitute appearances.
We'll need at least one senior midfielder to go with Stewart and Ejaria. It was Emre Can last time, but Can's also started the last five matches in a row, since City on New Year's Eve, the only Liverpool player to do so. It could be Henderson, further forward than usual because of Stewart's inclusion, it could be Wijnaldum, it could be both. As Henderson's also not far removed from injury, let's go with Gini.
Finally, the center-back to partner Joe Gomez. Lucas is dealing with a knee bruise, but has a small chance to be available. There have been scattered reports/rumors that Liverpool are will to push FIFA and play Matip, daring the organization to do something about it. I reckon Liverpool would lose that game of chicken. Mamadou Sakho still does not exist, don't even think about it. So it might have to be Lovren.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it'll be almost all kids again. Maybe even more kids. Liverpool kept a lot of them out of yesterday's u23 game, including Harry Wilson, who's never made a senior squad. But I suspect Liverpool has a point to prove, and while there are still a lot of midweek games coming up, it's not quite "oh you played less than 48 hours ago? Too bad."
And maybe it's because I don't know different, and my only real experience with Plymouth Argyle remains last week's 0-0, but I suspect we'll see a similar side and style to the match at Anfield from them as well.
Argyle have played just one match since the draw ten days ago, and used almost exactly the same XI, the only exception Connor Smith for Miller, who was injured at Anfield. And, hosting Stevenage, Argyle scored four goals for the first time since October 1. Uh oh, Happy learned how to putt, etc etc.
Fine. Let's be slightly fairer, and try to do so without patronizing. Argyle will be more attacking, even if relatively speaking. They've scored four, two, three, and two in their last four home games, albeit against their League Two peers, compared to zero, zero, one (in extra time), and zero in their last four away. There are no more replays; if this finishes level, whether 0-0 or 2-2, we're going to extra time and possibly penalties. They have more incentive to try to score, and a better (if only marginally) chance to do so.
And while Plymouth were incredibly defensive in the last meeting, it's not as if they were under constant serious threat. Liverpool had the possession, nearly all of the possession, but Liverpool struggled to create real chances. This has been a recent trend even when Liverpool had used a more established XI against better and less defensive sides.
If it's the same Plymouth XI as against Stevenage, it'll be McCormick; Threlkeld, Songo'o, Bradley, Purrington; Smith, Fox; Jervis, Carey, Slew; Garita. If there are changes, my guess is they'll be in attack. Former Blackburn striker David Goodwillie's back from injury, scoring as a substitute last Saturday. Craig Tanner, also used as a substitute against Stevenage, looked more of a threat when coming on at Anfield than the player he replaced.
Liverpool actually have multiple points to prove. Not only the indignity of a replay against a League Two side but the fact they're still winless in 2017. The fact they've yet to score an open play goal in 2017. The need to put the difficult festive season behind them and regain the form that got them to second in the table less than a month earlier.
But make no mistake, Plymouth Argyle will ensure it won't be easy.
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 01.08.17
3-2 Liverpool (a) 04.28.62
2-1 Liverpool (h) 12.09.61
1-1 (h) 03.24.61
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Manchester Utd (a); 0-1 Southampton (a); 0-0 Plymouth Argyle (h)
Plymouth: 4-2 Stevenage (h); 0-0 Liverpool (a); 0-1 Barnet (a)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 0-0 Plymouth Argyle (h)
Plymouth: 0-0 Liverpool (a); 1-0 Newport County aet (a), 0-0 Newport County (h); 2-1 Mansfield (a)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Mané 9; Firmino, Lallana, Origi 7; Coutinho, Milner, Sturridge 6; Can 3; Lovren, Wijnaldum 2; Henderson, Klavan, Matip, Woodburn 1
Plymouth: Carey 10; Jervis 8; Slew 6; Tanner 5; Bradley, Bulvitis 3; Donaldson, Garita, Smith, Songo'o, Spencer, Threlkeld 2; Fox, Goodwillie 1
Referee: Graham Scott
Guess at a line-up:
Karius
Alexander-Arnold Lovren Gomez Moreno
Ejaria Stewart Wijnaldum
Ojo Sturridge Coutinho
"We have, in general, a very young team. I said before the last game we had a lot of good reasons to line up like we did and it will be same case for Wednesday, we will have good reasons for the line-up," [Klopp] explained.
"The first and best reason is we want to win the game and want to go to the next round of the FA Cup. We will see.
"Probably, it will be different to the team we had in the first game but that's not 100 per cent sure so we have to wait a little bit. It will be good." -- Jürgen Klopp
Parsing press conference quotes is fun.
So, it'll be the "same case" but "different to the team" which started at Anfield. Okay. I'm taking that to mean a couple more senior players in the starting XI, but still a relatively young and inexperienced side. I may well be wrong.
Let's guess who anyway.
First, Sturridge. Because why not. Origi started on Sunday, Origi didn't do much, Sturridge remains Liverpool's best natural goalscorer. And let's go with Coutinho, who should be ready to start after two 30-minute substitute appearances.
We'll need at least one senior midfielder to go with Stewart and Ejaria. It was Emre Can last time, but Can's also started the last five matches in a row, since City on New Year's Eve, the only Liverpool player to do so. It could be Henderson, further forward than usual because of Stewart's inclusion, it could be Wijnaldum, it could be both. As Henderson's also not far removed from injury, let's go with Gini.
Finally, the center-back to partner Joe Gomez. Lucas is dealing with a knee bruise, but has a small chance to be available. There have been scattered reports/rumors that Liverpool are will to push FIFA and play Matip, daring the organization to do something about it. I reckon Liverpool would lose that game of chicken. Mamadou Sakho still does not exist, don't even think about it. So it might have to be Lovren.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it'll be almost all kids again. Maybe even more kids. Liverpool kept a lot of them out of yesterday's u23 game, including Harry Wilson, who's never made a senior squad. But I suspect Liverpool has a point to prove, and while there are still a lot of midweek games coming up, it's not quite "oh you played less than 48 hours ago? Too bad."
And maybe it's because I don't know different, and my only real experience with Plymouth Argyle remains last week's 0-0, but I suspect we'll see a similar side and style to the match at Anfield from them as well.
Argyle have played just one match since the draw ten days ago, and used almost exactly the same XI, the only exception Connor Smith for Miller, who was injured at Anfield. And, hosting Stevenage, Argyle scored four goals for the first time since October 1. Uh oh, Happy learned how to putt, etc etc.
Fine. Let's be slightly fairer, and try to do so without patronizing. Argyle will be more attacking, even if relatively speaking. They've scored four, two, three, and two in their last four home games, albeit against their League Two peers, compared to zero, zero, one (in extra time), and zero in their last four away. There are no more replays; if this finishes level, whether 0-0 or 2-2, we're going to extra time and possibly penalties. They have more incentive to try to score, and a better (if only marginally) chance to do so.
And while Plymouth were incredibly defensive in the last meeting, it's not as if they were under constant serious threat. Liverpool had the possession, nearly all of the possession, but Liverpool struggled to create real chances. This has been a recent trend even when Liverpool had used a more established XI against better and less defensive sides.
If it's the same Plymouth XI as against Stevenage, it'll be McCormick; Threlkeld, Songo'o, Bradley, Purrington; Smith, Fox; Jervis, Carey, Slew; Garita. If there are changes, my guess is they'll be in attack. Former Blackburn striker David Goodwillie's back from injury, scoring as a substitute last Saturday. Craig Tanner, also used as a substitute against Stevenage, looked more of a threat when coming on at Anfield than the player he replaced.
Liverpool actually have multiple points to prove. Not only the indignity of a replay against a League Two side but the fact they're still winless in 2017. The fact they've yet to score an open play goal in 2017. The need to put the difficult festive season behind them and regain the form that got them to second in the table less than a month earlier.
But make no mistake, Plymouth Argyle will ensure it won't be easy.
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