Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City aet [1-3 pens]

Previous Match Infographics: Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

All data from WhoScored.


Once again, give Liverpool the ball and wait them out. Manchester City definitely learned from the last meeting between these sides.



Liverpool had a shade under 58% possession against City yesterday (although it was 61.1% after 90 minutes), but the larger point still stands. If you sit deep, stay defensively organized, let Liverpool control possession, and congest space in your defensive half, chances are you'll succeed. If you attack Liverpool, giving them space to counter, giving them opportunities to press midfielders and defenders, Liverpool are more likely to score and much more likely to win.

Sitting deep against Liverpool denies space to the sometimes-tricky diminutive attacking midfielders, and doesn't allow strikers like Sturridge to run beyond the defenders. Liverpool's midfield – Can, Henderson, sometimes Lucas and Milner – aren't especially good at creating chances through the middle. Neither Lallana nor Coutinho make runs for throughballs, like that which Sturridge created for Milner in the 56th minute yesterday but Milner put wide.

And when the opposition can counter quickly, it exposes Liverpool's back-line and error-prone goalkeeper. City's goal was a good example: Sterling winning the aerial duel from Mignolet's goal kick, a quick cross-field pass to Agüero one-on-one with Lucas, Fernandinho on the overlap into space where Moreno wasn't, capped off by Mignolet failing to stop a very stoppable shot. But Agüero's chances in the 23rd and 48th minutes, Sterling's chances in the 60th and 80th minutes, and the non-penalty in the 63rd are even better examples.

Comparing where each sides' defensive actions took place in November and yesterday is telling. Liverpool's were much, much deeper than City's at the Etihad and compared to yesterday, and not just because Liverpool's fast start in the last meeting allowed them to sit deep. They denied space in midfield and defense from the opening whistle, and then more so once they took a one-goal lead, after which City quickly grew into the game before Liverpool's second and third.

So what's the solution? Excellent question; I wish I knew. Against different deep defenses, this side's tried pressing more fervently, tried using more crosses, tried using Benteke, tried overloading the middle with midfielders (both attacking and central), tried both higher and deeper defensive lines. Liverpool's switch to two strikers and a diamond midfield late on yesterday seems a definite possibility, but that improvement was also aided by an increasingly frantic end-of-game situation, where space arose because of tiring City legs as well as Liverpool's different formation and personnel. Firmino and Sturridge have pretty much played as two strikers in the three previous matches anyway, succeeding against an absolutely terrible Aston Villa but nowhere near as impressive in both legs against Augsburg.

I suspect it's mostly a matter of more training, more acclimatization to Klopp's tactics, more match time for returning players, and one or two new attackers in the summer. Now that this chance for success is gone, and Liverpool seem certain to finish somewhere between 6th and 8th in the league, it seems time for more experimentation: maybe more of the diamond midfield, more Flanagan and or Brad Smith at full-back, more Ibe, etc., at least in the league, with all of Liverpool's eggs now in the European basket.

But, as said yesterday, even despite these recurring issues in both attack and defense, Liverpool were a penalty lottery away from winning a trophy against the most expensively assembled side in England. Liverpool were a goalkeeper error away from somehow keeping a clean sheet with Lucas and Kolo Toure as center-backs – although mention must also be made of four outstanding goalkeeper saves to go along with said error, perfectly encapsulating Mignolet's peaks and valleys. Liverpool stayed close to a side that's more cohesive, more experienced, and more settled, featuring the most dangerous striker in the league and which both out-shot Liverpool and nearly doubled Liverpool's xG. This Liverpool side is still adjusting to Klopp's tactics (and the return of both Sturridge and Coutinho, who clearly make the side better but also remain rusty) and isn't yet close to being built in Klopp's image.

A trophy would have put some shine on what's been a fairly disappointing and dismal season, as it did in 2011-12. Nonetheless, Liverpool still seem in a much better possession than they were after that season and than they were a year ago.

Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City aet

Manchester City win 3-1 on penalties

Goals:
Fernandinho 49'
Coutinho 83'

It's a special talent of Liverpool's to frustrate and disappoint you, then give you hope, and then crush your soul into infinitesimal pieces.

That said, it's also a fair result. Manchester City were the better side, Manchester City had the better chances, Manchester City's defensive organization was superb. Manchester City should have wrapped it up long before Coutinho's late equalizer, except Sterling missed two excellent chances and somehow Moreno wasn't called for a penalty.

Of course, that doesn't make it any easier to stomach.

The late equalizer – and the difference that Lallana and Origi made off the bench – was impressive, but Liverpool were lucky to get it to extra time and penalties. And after beating Carlisle and Stoke on spot-kicks in this competition, Liverpool's luck ran out. Both Mignolet and Caballero guessed right on all but Emre Can's Panenka penalty, but Caballero got his hand to Liverpool's less-than-perfectly hit attempts from Lucas, Coutinho, and Lallana. Mignolet couldn't; Navas, Agüero, and Toure's efforts were just too good.

This is how far Liverpool still have to go. They're close, closer than their record or our usual criticism suggests, but nowhere near close enough.

For 48 minutes, cup final is cup final is cup final: closely fought with chances few and far between. Liverpool had the majority of possession, but only a couple of blocked shots and a mis-hit volley to show for it. I've never seen City get into a deep defensive position so quickly, completely abandoning any attempt at a high line. They clearly remembered November at the Etihad.

Meanwhile, City had the best chance, Agüero behind Liverpool's center-backs on a long ball from defense, amazingly saved onto the post by Mignolet, and a handful of set plays that Liverpool competently dealt with. That Sergio Agüero's shot was the only shot on-target in the first half. Cup finals.

But then, just after halftime, Fernandinho's goal happened, exploiting the space behind Moreno, his wide-box shot somehow under and through Liverpool's goalkeeper. From hero to villain, The Simon Mignolet Story.

From there, Liverpool had to come out. And, as sadly usual, struggled to do so. Liverpool's equalizer was Liverpool's first shot on-target. Before Lallana replaced Moreno and Origi replaced Firmino, in the 72nd and 80th minutes respectively, Liverpool had exactly one half-chance: a Sturridge throughball for Milner, mishit high and wide.

I've no idea how City failed to add a second, routinely exposing Liverpool on the counter-attack with Liverpool needing to chase the game. Sterling screwed two Danger Zone chances wide. Moreno stuck out a leg to trip Agüero in the box but somehow wasn't whistled by Michael Oliver. A smothered shot from distance, a free kick narrowly over.

But Liverpool somehow struck back. The substitutes replaced disappointing players and made an immediate impact. The switch to a 4-Diamond-2 gave Liverpool more control in midfield, with Milner adding better support from left-back. After a spell of possession, Coutinho, Origi, Henderson, and Clyne somehow forced the ball across the top of City's box, aided by a couple of fortunate bounces, eventually out to Sturridge wide on the right, his center finding Lallana at the far post. The substitute's shot hit the post, but ricocheted straight to Coutinho on the penalty spot, squeezing his between two defenders and past Caballero.

A little bit – well, more than a little bit – of luck and multiple players getting into dangerous positions. Getting into the penalty box. And something finally happens.

And then the world went mad. Two miraculous Mignolet saves in the final five minutes, denying both Fernandinho and Toure from close range. Then another, on Agüero, who somehow got in behind Lucas and Toure, in extra time. Origi could have won it with a point-blank header in the 110th minute, wonderfully denied by Caballero. Milner incredibly attempted a back-pass header straight to Agüero, who volleyed over. A UFC match nearly broke out between Lallana and Yaya Toure, after Lallana's bad foul, then Toure's horrific foul, then Toure attempting to piledrive an opponent half his size. Four City set plays in the final two minutes, the last with Fernandinho's almost-free header in the 121st minute directed wide rather than on-target.

Sports are baffling and hysterical and perpetually amazing.

And then penalties happened. Liverpool's 14 of 17 record on spot-kicks meant nothing, and Manchester City win their fourth trophy since Liverpool last won any.

Sports are also the worst.

So here we are. Another close but not close enough performance, another disappointment, in what was almost certainly Liverpool's best chance to avoid disappointment this season. Another match where Liverpool try hard but sputter and break down upon reaching the final third, another match where Liverpool concede because of a goalkeeper error.

But it's still impressive that Liverpool got here after all that's happened this season. The unbalanced squad, the injuries, the managerial change. That Liverpool got to penalties after the first 75 minutes of that match. That Liverpool got that close with Kolo Toure and Lucas as center-backs for 100 minutes of a cup final thanks to Sakho's early concussion – the latter arguably man of the match – with Sturridge clearly less than fit after his consecutive starts, with Firmino and Moreno massively disappointing. That Liverpool were the stronger and better side in extra time shows the strides Liverpool's fitness, at the very least, has made under the new manager.

It's both worse than it seems and better than it seems. And despite the massive disappointment, it still seems as if getting better rather than worse.

Liverpool v Manchester City 02.28.16

11:30am ET, live in the US on BeIN Sports

Last four head-to-head:
4-1 Liverpool (a) 11.21.15
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.01.15
1-3 City (a) 08.25.14
3-2 Liverpool (h) 04.13.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Augsburg (h); 0-0 Augsburg (a); 6-0 Villa (a)
City: 3-1 Dynamo Kiev (a); 1-5 Chelsea (a); 1-2 Tottenham (h)

Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 0-1 Stoke aet [6-5 pens], 1-0 Stoke (a); 6-1 Southampton (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-1 Carlisle aet [3-2 pens] (h)
City: 3-1 Everton (h), 1-2 Everton (a); 4-1 Hull (h); 5-1 Palace (h); 4-1 Sunderland (h)

Goalscorers (League Cup):
Liverpool: Origi 3; Ibe, Sturridge 2; Clyne, Ings 1
City: de Bruyne 5; Agüero, Bony, Iheanacho 2; Fernandinho, Garcia, Navas, Sterling, Toure 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can
Milner Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

We're pretty sure what Liverpool's XI is going to be: the same as the last few matches, with Kolo Toure (or Lovren or Skrtel, if fit) coming into defense in place of Lucas.

We're pretty sure what Liverpool need to do to succeed: actually convert its chances, as they did when facing City in November. Over the last few weeks, Liverpool have defended, pressed, possessed, and created chances. But except for the rout at all-but-already-relegated Aston Villa, Liverpool simply haven't scored.

Of course, scoring goals is easier said than done. Or Liverpool would have solved this problem ages ago.

Maybe the fit-again Lallana replaces Milner, maybe Lucas comes into midfield in the hopes of adding more defensive protection against City's firepower. But I doubt it. We've seen what Liverpool wants to do now that almost everyone's fit again. We've almost, but not quite, seen what Liverpool's capable of. Because we haven't seen Liverpool take advantage of the recent improvements in attack.

When Liverpool actually score goals, Liverpool are actually pretty good. But when they don't, look out – often either a frustrating Sisyphean struggle or a Yakety Sax hot mess.

Amazingly, Liverpool are up against a side that's almost as inconsistent as themselves.

Manchester City lost three straight before their comprehensive 3-1 win at Dynamo Kiev on Wednesday. It was the first time City have lost three consecutive matches since October-November 2010. There's a bit of fluke involved – ;a contentious penalty decision v Tottenham, a very different and very inexperienced XI in the FA Cup loss at Chelsea – but it also demonstrates Manchester City's capability to disappoint.

Sure, they've had injury issues this season. They've struggled to gel at times. In places, it's an aging and unbalanced squad. But you look at their roster, and you wonder how they're fourth, six points off the league leaders. You wonder how they're not running away with the league. You wonder how that attack hasn't already scored a billion goals.

I know their defense is wacky when Kompany's not involved, and he's missed a lot of time; it's probably not coincidence that Liverpool's 4-1 win at City came with Kompany absent. Agüero and de Bruyne, two crucial players in attack, have missed a lot of time as well. It's still confusing. They're still confusing. But Kompany's back for this, and Agüero's available for this, and City are coming off an impressive 3-1 away win in the Champions League to put them on course to make the quarterfinals for the first time ever. Because of course.

Throughout the season, Pellegrini's experimented with a 4-3-3 that looks more like a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2, with a central midfielder ostensibly on the flanks. Usually, it's been Fabian Delph. Usually, it's less than impressive. But at Kiev, Fernandinho filled that role, and filled it fairly well, adding protection when Toure or Fernando got forward but also linking up with other attackers.

We may see similar tomorrow. That XI, the same as at Kiev, would be Hart; Sagna, Kompany, Otamendi, Clichy; Toure, Fernando; Silva, Sterling, Fernandinho; Agüero. Or we may see a more orthodox 4-3-3 in an attempt to prevent Liverpool from overrunning central spaces. Or Navas returning to the side in place of Fernando or Fernandinho or even Sterling. City could make changes at both full-back positions, with Zabaleta and Kolarov coming into the side. Caballero's started every domestic cup match in the last two seasons, but I find it hard to believe Joe Hart won't start tomorrow.

City, despite their injury issues – Navas, Bony, and Mangala were back in training after the trip to Kiev, but Delph, de Bruyne, and Nasri remain absent – have options. It's what they do, or don't do, with those options. Just like Liverpool.

So, it's nearly impossible to predict what'll happen tomorrow, not that I've got any great record at predictions anyway. Maybe Liverpool actually score early and often, and we get that wonderful November trip to the Etihad again. Maybe Liverpool control proceedings but sputter in the final third, and we get a replica of 0-1 v Manchester United. Maybe City hit peak City and run riot, something they've done less than usual this season but still somehow always seem capable of doing. Maybe everybody disappoints and it's another damp squib at Wembley. Anything can happen, and to the victor goes the glory.

Just like a cup final should be.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Augsburg

Previous Match Infographics: Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.

(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Liverpool needs to finish its chances, Part XXXVIII.

We've seen this match multiple times, but it seemed most like Liverpool's first European match at Anfield. Except, thankfully, in the result.

Liverpool created six clear-cut chances against Sion, the most in any match this season, but only scored the first. Liverpool created good chances, rather than relying on speculative or forced shots from distance. Liverpool took the vast majority of its shots from inside the box, Liverpool put an above-average amount on target. Liverpool should have scored a lot more than they did. Liverpool should have won.

And that's almost exactly what happened yesterday. Five clear-cut chances; only that Sion match (6) and the 4-1 win at Manchester City (5, scoring two) saw as many. 17 of 24 shots from inside the box, 12 from the Danger Zone. A barely-mediocre 25% shooting accuracy, but more because Augsburg blocked ten Liverpool shots rather than Liverpool's all-too-usual errancy.

The difference? Sion scored from one of their few counter-attacks, Liverpool caught out by a long cross-field pass over a failed offside trap. Had Liverpool done similar yesterday, Liverpool would be out of the competition. And Liverpool almost did similar: Lucas errors released Caiuby in the 1st and 35th minutes, Stafylidis forced an excellent save from Mignolet in the 25th and barely missed with a free kick in the 89th, Mignolet charged off his line to deny an almost-through-on-goal Werner in the 70th, and Liverpool barely scrambled a loose ball clear from its six-yard box in the 87th.

It was far too close for comfort, and yet again, that's because Liverpool couldn't convert just one more of its multiple chances. But by hook, by crook, or by luck – by all of those things – Liverpool didn't concede.

It's not the first time similar has happened in the Europa League. Liverpool have now played eight European matches this season. Liverpool scored 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, and 1 in those eight games. Seven goals in eight games is not good. Seven goals in eight games almost perfectly summarizes Liverpool's season; you've just got to throw the word "hamstring" in there somewhere. However, in their eight games, Augsburg scored 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 0, and 0. Liverpool were the only side to hold Augsburg scoreless in this competition, and they did it twice.

It's still surprising to me, but Liverpool actually have a fairly competent defense. Usually. And yesterday, that was enough. As it was in 1-0 Bournemouth, 1-0 Kazan, 1-0 Swansea, 1-0 Leicester, 1-0 Sunderland, 1-0 Stoke, etc. But it makes for a very small margin of error: all those 1-1 draws earlier in the season, 0-2 Newcastle, 0-1 United, 0-1 Stoke, 0-2 Leicester, etc, etc.

We've seen what happens if this side finishes its chances: 4-1 City, 6-1 Southampton, 5-4 Norwich, 6-0 Villa. Better finishing or a bit more luck, and this could have easily fallen into that category. It helps when Coutinho and Firmino monopolize possession as they did, create as they did. Two Coutinho clear-cut chances for Sturridge, one Sturridge clear-cut chance for Coutinho. Seven chances created by Coutinho in the match, the most by a Liverpool player in league or European competition this season. Augsburg created eight chances in the entire match.

Two-legged xG map for Augsburg-Liverpool.

Help me out here. This actually happened? pic.twitter.com/CxTDsC40pM

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) February 26, 2016

If this side plays like this, but finishes just a bit better, it can be a very, very good Liverpool side, especially when everyone's fit. Having Sturridge and Coutinho fit unsurprisingly makes Liverpool actually decent. Other than the finishing, it's coming together: possession, creation, shot dominance, clean sheets. This is the first time since the first three matches of the season that Liverpool have kept three consecutive clean sheets.

Unfortunately, scoring goals is pretty much the most important part of the game. That can come, that should come, but Liverpool's frequent failings in regard, both with and without its best attackers, remains more than worrisome.

Let's just hope that Liverpool are saving their infrequently-seen ruthless finishing for Sunday's match, as well as the next round of this competition.

Liverpool v FC Augsburg 02.25.16

1pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Augsburg (a); 6-0 Villa (a); 1-2 West Ham aet (a)
Augsburg: 1-0 Hannover (a); 0-0 Liverpool (h); 1-3 Bayern (h)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Augsburg: 0-0 Liverpool (h); 3-1 Partizan (a); 2-3 Athletic Bilbao (h); 4-1 AZ (h); 0-1 AZ (a); 1-3 Partizan (h); 1-3 Athletic (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2, Benteke, Can, Ibe, Milner 1
Augsburg: Bobadilla 6; Trochowski 2; Altintop, Hong, Ji, Verhaegh 1

Referee: Clément Turpin (FRA)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can
Milner Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

It'll be the same team as a week ago. Lovren, Skrtel, Lallana, and Allen remain absent, along with the other long-term casualties. With Liverpool needing to attack (and attack consistently), and needing to score, I doubt Lucas comes into the side. There will be only three days in between this and the League Cup Final at Wembley, but Liverpool won't hold players back with an eye on that contest. A trophy is a trophy is a trophy, but progression in the Europa League (and a Champions League place for the eventual winner) is nearly as important, and Liverpool have had a week between matches to prepare players for playing in both fixtures.

JK: "If you think about the second step [cup final] before the first step [Augsburg] you will always fall down." #LFC

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 24, 2016

So as long as certain players (*glances warily at Sturridge, Henderson*) haven't suffered any setbacks in training, it'll be the XI we saw in Germany. Which remains, despite the failings in Germany, arguably the strongest XI that Liverpool can put out. As long as that XI performs to their capabilities. Which, as usual, remains a crapshoot.

Last week, Augsburg were without Daniel Bayer, Jeong-Ho Hong, Jan Moravek, Piotr Trochowski, and Jan-Ingwer Callen-Bracker due to injury, as well as Jeffrey Gouweleeuw because he's cup-tied. Raul Bobadilla strained his hamstring 15 minutes into the match. And midfielder Markus Feulner broke his cheekbone over the weekend. Eight players who'd at least have a chance to start will be absent, and it's not as if Augsburg have a large squad to begin with. Liverpool can empathize.

Icelandic striker Alfred Finnbogason started up front in place of Bobadilla at Hannover, with Caiuby on the left, Koo in the hole, and Esswein on the right. We could see that again, or ex-Sunderland striker Ji Dong-Won up front, or both Werner and Altintop returning to the side in the positions they played against Liverpool. And I have absolutely no idea who'll start in midfield in place of Feulner, especially since the usual replacements – Baier, Trochowski, even center-backs Hong or Gouweleeuw – are also out. Maybe Koo or Esswein drops deeper, maybe Augsburg change formation, maybe Augsburg use a defender or a youth player I've never heard of. No clue.

For formality's sake, let's guess the XI to be Hitz; Verhaegh, Janker, Klaven, Stafylidis; Koo, Kohr; Esswein, Altintop, Caiuby; Ji. But I'm fully prepared to be wrong in a few places. No matter who starts, Augsburg will mostly do what Augsburg did a week ago: soak up Liverpool pressure, deny chances, press when given the opportunity, look to force turnovers, and counter-attack at pace. With Liverpool at Anfield, there will probably be an even larger possession discrepancy, but that could just as easily leave Liverpool more exposed when Augsburg do get the chance to counter. A single away goal could easily decide tomorrow's match.

Meanwhile, Liverpool need to score, and could well need to score multiple times. Which basically makes this the same story we've told time and time again. If Liverpool do good things in attack – even just a couple of things – and don't do stupid things in defense, Liverpool will win. Liverpool need to take their chances, Liverpool need to not make errors at the back.

But Liverpool haven't done (or not done) those things with any sort of consistency. This would be a good week to start.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 Augsburg

Previous Match Infographics: Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.

(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

At least Liverpool are consistent?

For the third time this season, Liverpool have followed up a five-or-more-goals performance by failing to score. 6-0 at Southampton followed by 0-2 at Newcastle and 0-0 at Sion; 5-4 at Norwich followed by 0-1 v Stoke, 0-0 v West Ham, and 0-2 at Leicester; and, now, 6-0 at Aston Villa followed by 0-0 at Augsburg.

Stop using up all your goals in one match, Liverpool.

0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-1, 5-3, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0 - #lfc's last 16 away #EuropaLeague games #zzzzz

— Kop Magazine (@TheKopMagazine) February 18, 2016

That's a stretch going back four managers: Hodgson, Dalglish, Rodgers, and Klopp. Matches in Germany, Switzerland, Russia, France, Turkey, Italy, Scotland, Belarus, Portugal, Czech Republic, Romania, and the Netherlands. Liverpool failed to score in nine of those 16 games, with Liverpool scoring more than once in just one: an insane 5-3 win at BSC Young Boys in 2012-13.

Liverpool are Liverpool and European football is European football.

Liverpool are consistent. And consistently inconsistent.

As much as it was a very Liverpool-after-scoring-a-bunch-can't-score match, it was even more a very European away match.

Liverpool average 16.1 shots per match in the league, Augsburg allow 16.6 shots per match in the league. Liverpool took 16 yesterday: eight in the box, eight outside the box, six on-target. Liverpool average 1.5 goals per game in the league, Augsburg allow 1.5 goals per game in the league. Liverpool, as I suspect you remember, failed to score.

Liverpool's performance, at least in attack, was slightly worse than usual, but not much. The highs can be high, the lows can be low, and there's also some meh. Yesterday was quite meh. Liverpool had a handful of half-chances and one very good, clear-cut chance for Liverpool's best goalscorer, and that goalscorer missed. And that's football and that's life.

xG map for Augsburg-Liverpool. Ooof that Sturridge miss. pic.twitter.com/DKFfAC76ql

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) February 18, 2016

But it's not as if Liverpool completely held Augsburg at arms' length, did to them what they did to Villa, and did to Sunderland for the first 80 minutes. Liverpool were the better side and Liverpool had the best chance, the only clear-cut chance. Yet Augsburg took 12 shots, a total only eight sides have surpassed in Klopp's 32 Liverpool matches. At least three of those Augsburg chances could have easily resulted in a goal: Esswein in behind Toure on the break in the 45th minute, but shooting too close to Mignolet from close range; a 75th-minute back post cross that an open Stafylidis mis-hit; and an 86th-minute shot by Ji from Caiuby's knockdown off the outside of the woodwork.

That said, Liverpool are still the first side to hold Augsburg scoreless in a Europa League match this season. And despite Liverpool's repeated underwhelming performances in this competition, Augsburg are only the second side to hold Liverpool scoreless, following the 0-0 draw at Sion where neither side even tried to score.

0-0 certainly isn't the worst situation to be in going into the second leg at Anfield. Just win, by any margin, on your own ground, and you advance to the Round of 16 for the first time since 2010-11.

And Liverpool should win on its own ground, even though Liverpool is frequently better away from home and Augsburg is frequently better away from home. Augsburg also have a weekend game, while Liverpool don't, although we got 0-3 at Watford the last time Klopp's Liverpool had a week between games.

But just one mistake – a bad pass, a giveaway in the defensive half, a set play, a goalkeeper error – and Liverpool could be in trouble. One Liverpool mistake, even if only one, is certainly within the realm of possibility, if not even probable.

Away goals are crucial in this competition. An away goal would have given Liverpool breathing space, as well as the option of resting Henderson or Sturridge or whomever before the League Cup Final three days after the next leg. An away goal for Augsburg next week will require Liverpool to score two, something they've done just once in this competition.

Liverpool's next two matches have become Liverpool's two most important matches of the season. And they could well be the last two important matches Liverpool play this season.

Liverpool at FC Augsburg 02.18.16

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 2

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 6-0 Villa (a); 1-2 West Ham aet (a)2-2 Sunderland (h)
Augsburg: 1-3 Bayern (h); 1-2 Ingolstadt (a); 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (h)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Augsburg: 3-1 Partizan (a); 2-3 Athletic Bilbao (h); 4-1 AZ (h); 0-1 AZ (a); 1-3 Partizan (h); 1-3 Athletic (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2, Benteke, Can, Ibe, Milner 1
Augsburg: Bobadilla 6; Trochowski 2; Altintop, Hong, Ji, Verhaegh 1

Referee: David Fernández Borbalán (ESP)

Borbalán's actually done a Liverpool match before: the 0-1 loss at Anahi Makhachkala in this competition in 2012.

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can
Milner Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

Unless certain players aren't fit enough (looking at you, Daniel, Jordan, and Kolo), I can't see Liverpool's XI being much different than Sunday's.

There are perpetually concerns about players' fitness, especially the aforementioned certain players. But Liverpool have had four days since the win over Villa, and will have a full week before the home leg of this fixture. There haven't been any rumors of problems since Sunday, at least other than Kevin Stewart's ankle injury, and he's not in the Europa League squad anyway. Lucas will return to the squad, while Lallana, Lovren, Skrtel, and Allen are still absent.

Maybe Sturridge is protected and either Origi or Benteke start up front, although I'd argue that if Sturridge is going to play at all, he should do so from the start, where he's much more effective than as a substitute. Maybe Henderson's ongoing heel problem means that he needs a match off, and Lucas comes into midfield. Maybe Caulker, or even Lucas, replaces Toure. Maybe Ibe comes in for Milner, or maybe Firmino starts as the central striker in a 4-3-3.

All of those changes are possibilities, although I suspect they're less likely than the alternatives. But otherwise, same as before. It's clearly Liverpool's strongest XI at the moment, Liverpool's fixture list is finally easing, and this competition has become even more important than it seemed back in December thanks to continued failings in the league. There won't be any more XIs like those at Sion or at Bordeaux.

Liverpool need this competition.

Meanwhile, Augsburg are currently 14th in the 18-team Bundesliga, winless in their last four since returning from Germany's month-long winter break. They're one point outside the relegation playoffs and eight points from the top half of the table.

14th seems just about right after a quick look at their statistics. Only four sides have scored fewer league goals, only five sides have conceded more league goals. Augsburg allow the most shots per-game in the Bundesliga, although a large portion come from outside the box – and, incidentally, Liverpool really like shooting from outside the box. And at the other end of the pitch, only two Bundesliga sides take a higher percentage of their shots from outside the box: Ingolstadt (12th) and Hannover (18th).

Augsburg want to do what a lot of sides have done to Liverpool. And have succeeded by doing to Liverpool. Soak up Liverpool's pressure, close down quickly and congest space in midfield and in their defensive half, force sides to take their shots from less dangerous positions, and then counter-attack. Only Stuttgart have taken more shots from counter-attacking situations in the Bundesliga. At least Augsburg don't often score from set plays – only four league goals – but Liverpool can concede from set plays against anyone. Augsburg do, however, win penalties; only Bayern has scored more from the spot.

I probably shouldn't embarrass us both by attempting to predict Augsburg's XI, so let's just assume it'll be similar to the side which lost 1-3 to Bayern Munich on Sunday. A compact 4-2-3-1: Hitz; Verhaegh, Hong, Klavan, Max; Kohr, Koo; Esswein, Trochowski, Caiuby; Bobadilla. January signing Goiweleeuw, who started in midfield on Sunday, is cup-tied; center-back Jeong-Ho Hong is questionable after picking up a muscle injury in that match.

Special mention need be made of Raul Bobadilla, who is the joint-top scorer in the Europa League this season. He's got as many goals as Liverpool have in total. While Augsburg struggle to score in the league, they scored in every Europa League match, hitting four once and three once, averaging two goals per game. Liverpool scored two goals in just one of their six Europa League games. Bobadilla also previously faced Liverpool – albeit a much different Liverpool – in this competition in 2012-13, scoring at Anfield and setting up a goal in Switzerland. He's exactly the type of player who can punish a single defensive lapse, no matter the run of play. Liverpool remain far too fond of making defensive lapses.

Liverpool lost at this stage of the competition in each of their last two appearances: Zenit in 2012-13 and Besiktas in 2014-15. Augsburg is seemingly weaker than both of those opponents, with the added bonus that Liverpool's manager knows the side well, but that hasn't stopped Liverpool before.

That the first leg is away from home also appears to be a bonus. Liverpool have often been better away from home this season – Watford, Newcastle, etc. notwithstanding – and any result away in European competition is a good thing, especially considering the importance of away goals. While a 0-0 draw still hands Liverpool an advantage going into the second leg, an away goal would give Liverpool a massive edge at Anfield.

So go get them goals.

Visualized: Liverpool 6-0 Aston Villa

Previous Match Infographics: Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Matches like that are hard to analyze, because it's hard to know just how much of that was lucky, how much was a fluke. It was fairly close in the first half, but quickly got out of hand in the second. We saw the best of Liverpool – frequently mediocre, but surprisingly competent on their day and when key players are fit – and the absolute worst of Aston Villa, who aren't especially impressive on their few-and-far-between good days.

My suspicion, unfortunately, is quite a bit of that won't happen often.

Liverpool's shooting accuracy – 81.8%, nine on-target from 11 in total – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since I began tracking in 2012-13. The previous high was 75% in the 0-1 loss at Hull last season, where Liverpool put nine tame shots on-target and failed to score with any of them. The previous high where Liverpool actually scored was 69.2% in the 5-3 win at Stoke in 2013-14. Since 2012-13, Liverpool have shot better than 50% in just 12 league matches:



12 times in 140 matches.

Liverpool's goal conversion percentage – 60%, six goals from ten non-blocked shots – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since 2012-13. The previous high was 55.6% at Norwich last month, which is the only other match over 50% during these three-plus seasons. Incidentally, Liverpool's third-best goal conversion percentage this season is 27.27% at City, which is a bit of a drop from the other two. And Liverpool's season-long average is a horrific 13.21% – better than 2014-15's 12.21% but vastly worse than 2013-14's 19.35%.

The last time Liverpool scored three goals from outside the box in a league match was 5-2 at Norwich in September 2012, Luis Suarez with all three. Prior to yesterday's match, Liverpool had scored just five goals from outside the box in the league in total: Coutinho at Stoke, Milner v Villa, Coutinho at Chelsea, Origi v West Brom, and Firmino v Arsenal. Liverpool scored eight last season, 17 in 2013-14, and 12 in 2012-13. Unsurprisingly, Luis Suarez accounted for a good amount of them in both 2012-13 and 2013-14 (five and seven, respectively).

The last time Liverpool had six different goalscorers in a league match was September 1989, when eight different players scored in the 9-0 win over Crystal Palace. The last time it happened in any competition was November 2000, with six different goalscorers in an 8-0 league cup win at Stoke.

And Liverpool did all of this in attack with no player taking more than two shots. Nine different players took at least one. Seven hit the target, six scored. There will be days where one player's "on" (I'm looking at you, Daniel). There will be fewer where pretty much everyone's on.

At the other end of the pitch, Liverpool have allowed their opponents one or no shots on-target in just four other league matches this season: one v Manchester United (United scored), one at Newcastle (Newcastle scored), one at Stoke, and zero v Swansea.

Six opposition shots in total was joint-second lowest in a league match this season. The low was against West Brom, where West Brom took just four shots and scored twice. The three other matches where Liverpool allowed six were at Norwich (Liverpool conceded four), at Watford (Liverpool conceded three), and at Newcastle (Liverpool conceded two).

Even when Liverpool have allowed few shots, and/or the opposition attack has offered next to nothing, Liverpool have often found a way to screw it up.

There was a lot that was unusual about Liverpool yesterday, mostly in attack, but also in defense. And I'm afraid that Aston Villa's being really really really really bad at football had a lot to do with it.

Nonetheless, it still seems clear that Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi returning to the side will make Liverpool a much better football team. Both strikers scored, Coutinho created two assists, Firmino led the team in key passes. Having Sturridge, Coutinho, and Firmino on the pitch together will not only make Liverpool more potent, but also help to cover up some of the deficiencies in defense. I'm not comparing Liverpool's current side, or even Liverpool's potential, to 2013-14, but 2013-14 proved that a good attack can make up for defensive frailties and mistakes.

Liverpool are yet to lose when Daniel Sturridge starts this season (five matches, with three wins and two draws), and have lost just three of the 17 matches he's started over the last two seasons: at Manchester City, at Besiktas (in extra time), and v Manchester United last season. In total, Liverpool's record with him starting since 2014-15 is 11W-3D-3L. Six of those were cup ties, and I'm well aware you don't get points in cup ties, but that's an average of 2.12 points-per-game. That's an awful lot better than Liverpool's record without him.

As we're all well aware, Liverpool have found ways to fail against really really bad football teams before. Improvement is still improvement, and you can only beat what's in front of you. Liverpool haven't done that enough this season. And Liverpool certainly did yesterday.