10am ET, live in the US on USA Network
Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 01.10.15
0-0 (h) 12.06.14
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.26.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Leicester (a); 0-0 West Ham (h); 0-1 Stoke aet (h)
Sunderland: 0-1 City (h); 1-1 Bournemouth (h); 1-4 Tottenham (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 6; Coutinho, Firmino 5; Milner 3; Henderson, Ings, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Lallana, Origi, Skrtel 1
Sunderland: Defoe 9; Fletcher 4; van Aanholt 3; Borini, Lens, Watmore 2; Johnson, Jones, M’Vila 1
Referee: Robert Madley
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can Milner
Firmino Lallana
Benteke
To Benteke or not to Benteke? I guess that’s the question.
Liverpool have been held scoreless in the five hours since the five-goal outburst at Norwich. One of those matches – the FA Cup tie against West Ham – saw an almost entirely different XI, but those against both Stoke and Leicester were basically the same as at Norwich: Henderson, Lucas, Can in midfield; Firmino, Milner, and either Lallana or Ibe up front. And it’s been dire. Absolutely dire.
There’s really only one way Liverpool can change things, and that’s starting Liverpool’s only (and rightfully maligned) out-and-out striker. Otherwise, it’s half measures: Ibe or Ojo add pace, but little experience or guile in front of goal; Allen’s fitter than Henderson, Lucas, and maybe even Can, but that’s not a massive help up front; Brad Smith's seemingly in better form than Moreno, but it has been against weaker opposition; Teixiera might add more creativity, but who’s he creating for?
Christian Benteke wasn’t good against West Ham with the kids. Or Exeter, for that matter. He hasn’t been good as a substitute in the aforementioned painful scoreless draws or losses. But is he really worse than the "we tried hard, but that’s about it" that we’ve seen over the last few matches? Maybe. At this point, I’m almost happier with the devil we don’t know rather than the one we know all too well.
Coutinho, Origi, and Sturridge have all returned to training, but will return for the replay against West Ham at the soonest. They truly can make a difference. Until then, it remains a holding pattern.
This team needs goals. That’s the alpha, that’s the omega. Benteke’s certainly no guarantee of goals, but he has to be more likely, even if only slightly, than what we’ve seen lately.
Of course, Benteke started the last time these two sides met. And Benteke scored the winner. But, once again, it was an insipid attacking performance, a narrow 1-0 win. It certainly wasn’t a vote of confidence; after that, Benteke started the next league match, an abominable loss at West Ham, and has only started FA Cup matches since.
And that narrow, just-barely-good-enough performance came against a Sunderland side who’ve conceded the most goals in the division, one more than second-worst Norwich. Which might well be an argument for the same XI which faced Norwich. Sunderland have been especially porous away from home, conceding 34 of their 47 in total, six more than the second-worst side. They’ve allowed three goals away from home three times, four goals three times, and six goals once. They’ve kept just one away clean sheet: at Palace in November.
Of course, always assume Liverpool can buck that sort of trend.
Sunderland are currently 19th, four points and goal difference from safety. Given their position, it’s little surprise that they were one of the busiest in the January transfer window, adding Dame N’Doye and Wahbi Khazri in attack, and Lamine Kone and Jan Kirchhoff in defense. Both Kone and Kirchhoff – the latter as a defensive midfielder – started on Tuesday, both Khazri and N’Doye came off the bench.
Jeremiah Lens, Yann M’Vila, and Younes Kaboul are questionable; Seb Larsson’s still out injured.
Assuming it’ll be a similar line-up as against Manchester City – where Sunderland played well but lost 0-1 to an early Agüero goal, with City happy to just sit back and stifle after taking the lead – the XI should be Mannone; Jones, Kone, O’Shea, van Aanholt; Kirchhoff; Khazri, M’Vila, Cattermole, Borini; Defoe. We’ll assume Lens, who needed to be replaced at halftime on Tuesday, and Kaboul, out for the last six weeks, aren’t available, but M’Vila will be. If he’s not, Sunderland could play Rodwell, Adam Johnson, or Ola Toivonen in midfield, or switch formations: to either five at the back or 4-4-2.
With Liverpool held scoreless against both Stoke and West Ham, Anfield hasn’t seen a goal since the FA Cup replay against Exeter on January 20th, and hasn’t seen a league goal since Joe Allen’s 90th-minute equalizer against Arsenal on January 13th.
No offense to Sunderland (okay, only slight offense, and all towards Sam Allardyce), but tomorrow is all about what Liverpool do. It’s all about goals. Liverpool simply have to score more of them. Any of them.
05 February 2016
03 February 2016
Visualized: Liverpool 0-2 Leicester
Previous Match Infographics: Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
Liverpool are the better side. But Liverpool can’t score. Then Liverpool concede. Then Liverpool lose.
Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties ‘cause it's cold out there today. Yep, it was Groundhog Day. Again.
An inability to break through a deep, well-organized defense, poor chances created, poor shot location, poor shot accuracy. And then, a concession, a tremendously struck shot, the kind Liverpool rarely recreate, and then a defensive mix-up coupled with some unlucky caroms.
Just two of 14 Liverpool shots on-target, 14.3% accuracy: Lovren’s lofted and tame set play header in the 34th minute, and Can’s no-angle wide-box shot in the 69th. Nine of 14 shots from outside the box, with none on-target. Just two Danger Zone shots: the aforementioned Lovren header and Can’s deflected effort (from one of Liverpool’s best moves of the match) in the 48th. Zero clear-cut chances created, for the fourth time in Klopp’s 16 league matches.
It’s hard to score when your opportunities to score are that bad. Unless you’re Jamie Vardy, I guess. I also wouldn’t recommend Emre Can taking more than a third of your total shots, but hey, someone's got to do it.
It’s almost as if Liverpool are using up their goals in bursts. Score six at Southampton in the League Cup, then held scoreless in the next two matches. Score five at Norwich, held scoreless in the next three matches. Let’s try spacing them out a bit more judiciously, guys.
Liverpool haven’t scored a goal in the last five hours – five. hours. – of football. 120 minutes against Stoke, 90 against West Ham and Leicester.
Liverpool have now been held scoreless in nine of Klopp’s 27 matches – exactly one-third. It happened just twice in Rodgers’ 11 matches to start the campaign. Liverpool’s goals-per-game is higher under the new manager (1.44 v 1.0 in all competitions), but the variation is greater. It seemed as if Liverpool scored just once in every one of Rodgers’ matches; under Klopp, it’s more often two or three or four or five or six, or it’s zero. And zero is happening far too often.
Leicester also held Liverpool to its lowest xG since Klopp became manager: 0.5, tied for worst with the 1-0 win at Stoke on opening day. Liverpool took just eight shots that day, and scored from one of those one-in-a-hundred chances. You’ve got to work really hard at being really insipid to take 14 shots but only total 0.5 expected goals.
To be slightly fairer to Liverpool, Leicester haven't conceded a league goal at home since Chelsea on December 14. 0-0 Manchester City, 0-0 Bournemouth, 3-0 Stoke, and now 2-0 Liverpool. Leicester have conceded 13 in 12 home games this season – more than six other sides – but ten of those 13 came in the first four home matches of the campaign, including five in a 2-5 loss to Arsenal. Since then? Three goals in eight games: five clean sheets, and one each from Watford, United, and Chelsea.
Leicester are very, very good defensively, especially at home. They’re built off the deep defense, and then countering quickly and countering long to Mahrez and Vardy. Leicester know what Leicester does well, so that’s what Leicester does, and that’s all that Leicester does. And Leicester leads the league. We still don't know what Liverpool does well, and so Liverpool still sits firmly mid-table. Except disappointing us. They're quite good at that.
Unlike the last time these sides met, Liverpool’s 4-4-1-1 couldn’t match Leicester’s. Leicester – who have no injuries to key players, had 10 days since their last match, and played three fewer matches in January than Liverpool – out-worked, out-thought, and out-finished Liverpool. But that’s also the difference between a 4-4-1-1 with Origi/Benteke up front, Firmino in the hole, and Lallana and Coutinho on the flanks versus Firmino “up front,” Lallana in the hole, and Milner and Henderson “on the flanks.” The front six was four central midfielders, a #10 much better without the ball than with it, and an inconsistent false nine who’s still very much adapting to this league and style of play.
Incidentally, as in the last meeting, Liverpool weren’t terrible in defense. They were certainly better last time, but Leicester’s attack was very much worse last time. And unlike Liverpool's front six, Liverpool's back five was the same as in the last meeting. Consistency matters. Liverpool allowed just three shots inside the box. Liverpool kept Leicester at bay for an hour, although they had two very good saves from Mignolet to thank for that. Between the save on Mahrez’s dipping effort in the 35th and Vardy’s goal in the 60th, Leicester took just one shot: Okazaki from distance, well over the goal.
The last time Liverpool saved the first shot on-target – this time, the first four shots on-target – but still conceded was the 1-1 draw against Southampton on October 25. More than three months ago. Since, the 0-0 v West Ham in the FA Cup, 1-0 at Stoke in the League Cup, 3-0 v Exeter in the FA Cup, 1-0 v Sunderland, 1-0 v Leicester, and 1-0 v Bournemouth in the League Cup. Of course, in all the other matches, Liverpool either didn’t allow a single shot on-target (1-0 Swansea, 0-0 Sion, and 1-0 Kazan) or conceded from the opposition’s first shot on-target (the other 15!!! matches).
But then, Mahrez’s hopeful punt forward when Liverpool yet again lost possession in the final third, Vardy in behind Liverpool’s dozy high line, and a goal from absolutely nothing and nowhere, almost certainly the Premier League goal of the season.
It’s seemingly not fair. But that’s the difference an actual out-and-out in-form striker makes. So it was little surprise when, 11 minutes later, Liverpool’s defense reverted to Keystone Kops: Sakho misjudging and mis-hitting what should have been an easily cleared header, Okazaki’s shot taking a fortunate deflection off of Moreno, Lovren caught on the back-foot and wholly unaware, the deflection perfectly placed for a Vardy tap-in. Two Vardy shots, two Vardy goals.
So very Liverpool. So very Groundhog Day.
But with continuing injuries, an unbalanced squad, and woeful form from the few potential replacements (looking at you, Christian and Jordon and then Christian again), there’s seemingly little that the manager can do at the moment. The January transfer window could, and probably should, have helped, but I understand Klopp not wanting to overpay and also wanting to know exactly what he has and what he needs before the massive overhaul that has to be coming. I honestly still believe – but there's a good chance I'm wrong – that can be a much different, much better side with just one or two from Sturridge, Ings, Coutinho, and Origi available.
As painful as it is, it feels as if we’ve just got to grin and bear it for the next few months. And hope that Liverpool can replicate one of those few-and-far-between goal bursts in the now even more important cup matches.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
Liverpool are the better side. But Liverpool can’t score. Then Liverpool concede. Then Liverpool lose.
Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties ‘cause it's cold out there today. Yep, it was Groundhog Day. Again.
An inability to break through a deep, well-organized defense, poor chances created, poor shot location, poor shot accuracy. And then, a concession, a tremendously struck shot, the kind Liverpool rarely recreate, and then a defensive mix-up coupled with some unlucky caroms.
Just two of 14 Liverpool shots on-target, 14.3% accuracy: Lovren’s lofted and tame set play header in the 34th minute, and Can’s no-angle wide-box shot in the 69th. Nine of 14 shots from outside the box, with none on-target. Just two Danger Zone shots: the aforementioned Lovren header and Can’s deflected effort (from one of Liverpool’s best moves of the match) in the 48th. Zero clear-cut chances created, for the fourth time in Klopp’s 16 league matches.
It’s hard to score when your opportunities to score are that bad. Unless you’re Jamie Vardy, I guess. I also wouldn’t recommend Emre Can taking more than a third of your total shots, but hey, someone's got to do it.
It’s almost as if Liverpool are using up their goals in bursts. Score six at Southampton in the League Cup, then held scoreless in the next two matches. Score five at Norwich, held scoreless in the next three matches. Let’s try spacing them out a bit more judiciously, guys.
Liverpool haven’t scored a goal in the last five hours – five. hours. – of football. 120 minutes against Stoke, 90 against West Ham and Leicester.
Liverpool have now been held scoreless in nine of Klopp’s 27 matches – exactly one-third. It happened just twice in Rodgers’ 11 matches to start the campaign. Liverpool’s goals-per-game is higher under the new manager (1.44 v 1.0 in all competitions), but the variation is greater. It seemed as if Liverpool scored just once in every one of Rodgers’ matches; under Klopp, it’s more often two or three or four or five or six, or it’s zero. And zero is happening far too often.
xG map for Leicester - Liverpool. This was some seriously impressive Lestering by the Lesters. pic.twitter.com/hQgTUZaEKz— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) February 2, 2016
Leicester also held Liverpool to its lowest xG since Klopp became manager: 0.5, tied for worst with the 1-0 win at Stoke on opening day. Liverpool took just eight shots that day, and scored from one of those one-in-a-hundred chances. You’ve got to work really hard at being really insipid to take 14 shots but only total 0.5 expected goals.
To be slightly fairer to Liverpool, Leicester haven't conceded a league goal at home since Chelsea on December 14. 0-0 Manchester City, 0-0 Bournemouth, 3-0 Stoke, and now 2-0 Liverpool. Leicester have conceded 13 in 12 home games this season – more than six other sides – but ten of those 13 came in the first four home matches of the campaign, including five in a 2-5 loss to Arsenal. Since then? Three goals in eight games: five clean sheets, and one each from Watford, United, and Chelsea.
Leicester are very, very good defensively, especially at home. They’re built off the deep defense, and then countering quickly and countering long to Mahrez and Vardy. Leicester know what Leicester does well, so that’s what Leicester does, and that’s all that Leicester does. And Leicester leads the league. We still don't know what Liverpool does well, and so Liverpool still sits firmly mid-table. Except disappointing us. They're quite good at that.
Unlike the last time these sides met, Liverpool’s 4-4-1-1 couldn’t match Leicester’s. Leicester – who have no injuries to key players, had 10 days since their last match, and played three fewer matches in January than Liverpool – out-worked, out-thought, and out-finished Liverpool. But that’s also the difference between a 4-4-1-1 with Origi/Benteke up front, Firmino in the hole, and Lallana and Coutinho on the flanks versus Firmino “up front,” Lallana in the hole, and Milner and Henderson “on the flanks.” The front six was four central midfielders, a #10 much better without the ball than with it, and an inconsistent false nine who’s still very much adapting to this league and style of play.
Incidentally, as in the last meeting, Liverpool weren’t terrible in defense. They were certainly better last time, but Leicester’s attack was very much worse last time. And unlike Liverpool's front six, Liverpool's back five was the same as in the last meeting. Consistency matters. Liverpool allowed just three shots inside the box. Liverpool kept Leicester at bay for an hour, although they had two very good saves from Mignolet to thank for that. Between the save on Mahrez’s dipping effort in the 35th and Vardy’s goal in the 60th, Leicester took just one shot: Okazaki from distance, well over the goal.
The last time Liverpool saved the first shot on-target – this time, the first four shots on-target – but still conceded was the 1-1 draw against Southampton on October 25. More than three months ago. Since, the 0-0 v West Ham in the FA Cup, 1-0 at Stoke in the League Cup, 3-0 v Exeter in the FA Cup, 1-0 v Sunderland, 1-0 v Leicester, and 1-0 v Bournemouth in the League Cup. Of course, in all the other matches, Liverpool either didn’t allow a single shot on-target (1-0 Swansea, 0-0 Sion, and 1-0 Kazan) or conceded from the opposition’s first shot on-target (the other 15!!! matches).
But then, Mahrez’s hopeful punt forward when Liverpool yet again lost possession in the final third, Vardy in behind Liverpool’s dozy high line, and a goal from absolutely nothing and nowhere, almost certainly the Premier League goal of the season.
It’s seemingly not fair. But that’s the difference an actual out-and-out in-form striker makes. So it was little surprise when, 11 minutes later, Liverpool’s defense reverted to Keystone Kops: Sakho misjudging and mis-hitting what should have been an easily cleared header, Okazaki’s shot taking a fortunate deflection off of Moreno, Lovren caught on the back-foot and wholly unaware, the deflection perfectly placed for a Vardy tap-in. Two Vardy shots, two Vardy goals.
So very Liverpool. So very Groundhog Day.
But with continuing injuries, an unbalanced squad, and woeful form from the few potential replacements (looking at you, Christian and Jordon and then Christian again), there’s seemingly little that the manager can do at the moment. The January transfer window could, and probably should, have helped, but I understand Klopp not wanting to overpay and also wanting to know exactly what he has and what he needs before the massive overhaul that has to be coming. I honestly still believe – but there's a good chance I'm wrong – that can be a much different, much better side with just one or two from Sturridge, Ings, Coutinho, and Origi available.
As painful as it is, it feels as if we’ve just got to grin and bear it for the next few months. And hope that Liverpool can replicate one of those few-and-far-between goal bursts in the now even more important cup matches.
01 February 2016
Liverpool at Leicester 02.02.16
2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports
Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.26.15
2-2 (h) 01.01.15
3-1 Liverpool (a) 12.02.14
0-0 (a) 03.28.04
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 West Ham (h); 0-1 Stoke aet (h); 5-4 Norwich (a)
Leicester: 3-0 Stoke (h); 0-2 Tottenham (h); 1-1 Villa (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 6; Coutinho, Firmino 5; Milner 3; Henderson, Ings, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Lallana, Origi, Skrtel 1
Leicester: Vardy 16; Mahrez 13; Okazaki 4; Ulloa 2; Albrighton, Drinkwater, Dyer, Huth, Kante, Schlupp, Wasilewski 1
Referee: Andre Marriner
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Henderson Lucas Can
Milner Firmino Lallana
On Boxing Day, Liverpool almost wholly negated Leicester, and eventually eked out a 1-0 victory, mainly by matching Leicester’s formation 4-4-1-1 v 4-4-1-1 and matching Leicester’s notorious work-rate. But Liverpool are still missing two players crucial to that formation: Coutinho and Origi, even though Benteke replaced the latter after 37 minute due to – what else? – a hamstring injury.
Klopp says that Coutinho, Origi, Skrtel, and (even) Sturridge are close to returning, likely to join training by the end of the week, but none will be available tomorrow. Which makes it harder to repeat the tactics which led to all three points five weeks ago.
Liverpool can get close – Benteke up front, either Milner or Ibe on the flank – but the "usual" XI seems more likely, basically the same XI we saw against both Stoke and Norwich. Liverpool’s very, very different results in those two matches demonstrates the inconsistency in this side and in this squad, as well as the strength of their respective opponents. Of course, Leicester is even better, both in defense and attack, than either Stoke or Norwich.
Maybe Henderson’s out with his recurring foot injury; either Milner drops into midfield, Allen keeps his place, or Liverpool change to the above 4-4-1-1 formation. Maybe Lovren’s still not ready to start two matches in three days after recently returning, and Toure (or Caulker) start instead. Otherwise, Liverpool still don’t have a ton of options, but this is nothing new.
As usual, Liverpool will succeed by running a lot and not doing anything stupid in defense – as they did when these sides last met, as they’ve done against Stoke, Sunderland, and Swansea in recent weeks. Because matches like 5-4 at Norwich, or even 3-3 against Arsenal, have been much more the exception rather than the rule.
And as when these sides met on Boxing Day, Leicester are still the league leaders. They’re 13 points ahead of Liverpool, a gap that’s decreased by just a single point since these sides last season. They’ve scored 12 more goals than Liverpool, they’ve conceded six fewer.
Unlike when these sides last met, Leicester have had 10 days since their last match; I doubt I need remain that Liverpool have had just three. Unlike last time, both Vardy and Mahrez will be rested and fully fit. Vardy and Mahrez have the same amount of league goals scored as every Liverpool player combined, a solitary own goal at Manchester City the only difference between Liverpool’s 30 and Vardy and Mahrez’s 29.
Which is good news for Leicester, both in the short- and medium-term. Because the next three matches – against Liverpool, then at both City and Arsenal – will go a long way in determining their final place. Win all three, and Leicester have almost certainly secured a top four spot and will remain in pole position for the title. Drop points, in any or in all, and questions begin to arise.
As has become usual, and is a big reason for Leicester’s still-shocking form, they’ve no injuries to worry about. Schlepp’s probably still out, but also probably wouldn’t play anyway, and that’s it. Ranieri’s had a full-strength squad to choose from almost all season. So it’s likely that tomorrow’s XI will be quite familiar: Schmeichel; Simpson, Morgan, Ruth, Fuchs; Mahrez, Drinkwater, Kante, Albrighton; Okazaki, Vardy. It's the same XI that Liverpool faced little more than a month ago.
Leicester have added winger Demarai Grey and midfielder Daniel Amartey during the transfer window, and are still looking to add a striker (whether Remy or Ahmed Musa or Dwight Gayle), but the former will probably be limited to substitute appearances at most and the latter wouldn’t be signed in time to feature tomorrow.
Maybe Grey starts in place of Albrighton, maybe Ulloa in place of Okazaki, but that’s it. Leicester is Leicester, have been Leicester all season. They will work as hard as any side in the league, deny space in their half, and counter-attack at pace, with Vardy and Mahrez perpetually dangerous. They know what they do and they’re very good at what they do. And they’ve lost just twice in 23 league matches.
But one of those losses was against Liverpool. It was at Liverpool. Liverpool had a couple more players available, Leicester were more fatigued. It was one of Liverpool’s best defensive performances of the season, it was one of Leicester’s worst attacking performances of the season, both almost equally out of character. Tomorrow’s match will be even more difficult, for exactly those reasons.
Still, Liverpool have done it before, and Liverpool have the potential to do it again.
Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.26.15
2-2 (h) 01.01.15
3-1 Liverpool (a) 12.02.14
0-0 (a) 03.28.04
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 West Ham (h); 0-1 Stoke aet (h); 5-4 Norwich (a)
Leicester: 3-0 Stoke (h); 0-2 Tottenham (h); 1-1 Villa (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 6; Coutinho, Firmino 5; Milner 3; Henderson, Ings, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Lallana, Origi, Skrtel 1
Leicester: Vardy 16; Mahrez 13; Okazaki 4; Ulloa 2; Albrighton, Drinkwater, Dyer, Huth, Kante, Schlupp, Wasilewski 1
Referee: Andre Marriner
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Henderson Lucas Can
Milner Firmino Lallana
On Boxing Day, Liverpool almost wholly negated Leicester, and eventually eked out a 1-0 victory, mainly by matching Leicester’s formation 4-4-1-1 v 4-4-1-1 and matching Leicester’s notorious work-rate. But Liverpool are still missing two players crucial to that formation: Coutinho and Origi, even though Benteke replaced the latter after 37 minute due to – what else? – a hamstring injury.
Klopp says that Coutinho, Origi, Skrtel, and (even) Sturridge are close to returning, likely to join training by the end of the week, but none will be available tomorrow. Which makes it harder to repeat the tactics which led to all three points five weeks ago.
Liverpool can get close – Benteke up front, either Milner or Ibe on the flank – but the "usual" XI seems more likely, basically the same XI we saw against both Stoke and Norwich. Liverpool’s very, very different results in those two matches demonstrates the inconsistency in this side and in this squad, as well as the strength of their respective opponents. Of course, Leicester is even better, both in defense and attack, than either Stoke or Norwich.
Maybe Henderson’s out with his recurring foot injury; either Milner drops into midfield, Allen keeps his place, or Liverpool change to the above 4-4-1-1 formation. Maybe Lovren’s still not ready to start two matches in three days after recently returning, and Toure (or Caulker) start instead. Otherwise, Liverpool still don’t have a ton of options, but this is nothing new.
As usual, Liverpool will succeed by running a lot and not doing anything stupid in defense – as they did when these sides last met, as they’ve done against Stoke, Sunderland, and Swansea in recent weeks. Because matches like 5-4 at Norwich, or even 3-3 against Arsenal, have been much more the exception rather than the rule.
And as when these sides met on Boxing Day, Leicester are still the league leaders. They’re 13 points ahead of Liverpool, a gap that’s decreased by just a single point since these sides last season. They’ve scored 12 more goals than Liverpool, they’ve conceded six fewer.
Unlike when these sides last met, Leicester have had 10 days since their last match; I doubt I need remain that Liverpool have had just three. Unlike last time, both Vardy and Mahrez will be rested and fully fit. Vardy and Mahrez have the same amount of league goals scored as every Liverpool player combined, a solitary own goal at Manchester City the only difference between Liverpool’s 30 and Vardy and Mahrez’s 29.
Which is good news for Leicester, both in the short- and medium-term. Because the next three matches – against Liverpool, then at both City and Arsenal – will go a long way in determining their final place. Win all three, and Leicester have almost certainly secured a top four spot and will remain in pole position for the title. Drop points, in any or in all, and questions begin to arise.
As has become usual, and is a big reason for Leicester’s still-shocking form, they’ve no injuries to worry about. Schlepp’s probably still out, but also probably wouldn’t play anyway, and that’s it. Ranieri’s had a full-strength squad to choose from almost all season. So it’s likely that tomorrow’s XI will be quite familiar: Schmeichel; Simpson, Morgan, Ruth, Fuchs; Mahrez, Drinkwater, Kante, Albrighton; Okazaki, Vardy. It's the same XI that Liverpool faced little more than a month ago.
Leicester have added winger Demarai Grey and midfielder Daniel Amartey during the transfer window, and are still looking to add a striker (whether Remy or Ahmed Musa or Dwight Gayle), but the former will probably be limited to substitute appearances at most and the latter wouldn’t be signed in time to feature tomorrow.
Maybe Grey starts in place of Albrighton, maybe Ulloa in place of Okazaki, but that’s it. Leicester is Leicester, have been Leicester all season. They will work as hard as any side in the league, deny space in their half, and counter-attack at pace, with Vardy and Mahrez perpetually dangerous. They know what they do and they’re very good at what they do. And they’ve lost just twice in 23 league matches.
But one of those losses was against Liverpool. It was at Liverpool. Liverpool had a couple more players available, Leicester were more fatigued. It was one of Liverpool’s best defensive performances of the season, it was one of Leicester’s worst attacking performances of the season, both almost equally out of character. Tomorrow’s match will be even more difficult, for exactly those reasons.
Still, Liverpool have done it before, and Liverpool have the potential to do it again.
30 January 2016
Liverpool 0-0 West Ham
That could have been worse, that should have been better. But that’s Liverpool. At least Liverpool didn’t do anything stupid. At least Liverpool didn’t concede against the run of play. At least Liverpool didn’t concede from a set play. At least Liverpool didn't concede from the first, and only, shot on-target that Liverpool faced. Those things have happened all too often, lately and over the last 18 months, even when Liverpool have been “the better side.”
So it could have been worse.
And Liverpool were the better side today, despite basically the same side as against Exeter ten days ago. Three new faces in defense – Clyne and Lovren returned from injury, Caulker made his full debut – but otherwise, eight of the same XI that beat Exeter 3-0 at Anfield. West Ham started seven first-team regulars: Payet, Valencia, Song, Kouyate, Tomkins, Reid, and Cresswell; every player, even the back-up keeper, had made at least three Premier League starts this season.
Liverpool controlled the game, and Liverpool controlled the midfield, whether facing West Ham's 4-3-3 or West Ham's 4-4-2. Liverpool pressed quite well. Liverpool were – despite a couple of set play scares, because of course – reasonably secure at the back.
Liverpool rarely looked like scoring.
Okay, that’s not entirely fair. Liverpool had some good chances to score, and, unsurprisingly, a couple were either mis-hit or wildly off-target. But Liverpool also put six good shots on goal: Brannagan’s wonderful effort from distance, two wide-box near-post shots by Teixeira, and three in quick succession in the 75th: Benteke through on goal but saved, Allen’s rebound saved, Benteke’s rebound saved. All except Brannagan’s could have been better taken, but they weren’t badly taken either.
That said, Benteke disappointed again, failing to seize another chance to find form. Ibe disappointed, his throughball to Benteke in the 75th the only moment of note before Ojo replaced him in the 80th. Liverpool created enough to win, but Liverpool still need to create even more than that to win.
So it should have been better.
Meanwhile, West Ham’s chances were limited to a couple of shots from distance and a set play scramble in the 50th minute, where Caulker could have been penalized for handball and Reid’s point-blank shot was saved and smuggled away. And that’s about it.
When Liverpool save the first shot on-target, Liverpool keep a clean sheet: as against Exeter (h), Stoke (a), Sunderland, Leicester, etc. It’s when they don’t that Liverpool have problems.
It wasn’t as strong a West Ham side as those Liverpool lost to in the league, but it was an even weaker Liverpool side. And this was the best that Liverpool have played against West Ham this season, by some distance.
Liverpool have now played 270 minutes against West Ham this season. They’ve taken 54 shots. They’ve put just nine on-target – six of them today – for just 16.7% accuracy. They’ve yet to score.
That’s bad. And it’s not for the first time, with Liverpool failing to score in seven of the last 15 matches. At least we know where Liverpool most need to improve. Not that we didn’t already.
As said after the first match against Exeter, Liverpool really don’t need any more matches, the fixture list already far too full. We’ll do this one again on February 9th, sandwiched between league matches against Sunderland and at Aston Villa. Liverpool will have at least seven matches in February, eight if Liverpool win the replay. Either seven or eight in 28 days. Liverpool haven’t had a week between games since 2015, with six whole days between the December 20 loss at Watford and December 26 win over Leicester.
But if it’s this XI again, it’s not the worst thing in the world. Rested players often play better than tired ones, and you can see the progression these players have made: from the first match at Exeter, then at home against Exeter, and now against a reasonably strong West Ham. Brannagan, Teixeira, Smith, and Stewart were some of Liverpool’s best today, along with Clyne and Allen. This has been valuable experience for them, and another match – this time at Upton Park – should be as well.
Still, I’d rather a reasonably competent Liverpool side which had multiple chances to finish the job today had actually done so.
29 January 2016
Liverpool v West Ham 01.30.16
12:30pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 2
Last four head-to-head:
0-2 West Ham (a) 01.02.16
0-3 West Ham (h) 08.29.15
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.31.15
1-3 West Ham (a) 09.20.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Stoke aet (h); 5-4 Norwich (a); 3-0 Exeter (h)
West Ham: 2-2 City (h); 1-2 Newcastle (a); 3-1 Bournemouth (a)
Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Exeter (h), 2-2 Exeter (a)
West Ham: 1-0 Wolves (h)
Goalscorers (FA):
Liverpool: Allen, Ojo, Sinclair, Smith, Teixeira 1
West Ham: Jelavic 1
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Martin had a… let’s say “busy” match mid-week, in the semi-final between City and Everton. He’ll probably prefer to play less of a role in tomorrow’s contest.
Guess at a line-up:
Ward
Clyne Caulker Lovren Smith
Brannagan Allen
Ibe Teixeira Ojo
Benteke
West Ham is not Exeter. Not even close. West Ham currently sits two points ahead of Liverpool in the league, West Ham is a side that has beaten Liverpool – fairly handily – in three of the last four meetings.
I’d still play a team that looks a lot more like the XIs against Exeter than the XIs in the league or league cup.
I’d be hesitant to start any of the XI, except maybe Mignolet, tomorrow. Henderson, his foot problem still a problem, certainly won’t start, but none of the other nine outfield starters (all of whom played at least 85 minutes) will physically be 100%. In total, it was 120 draining, cup semi-final minutes – unsurprisingly, the most that Liverpool have run in a match this season. And Liverpool have an away match against the league leaders three days after this one.
The injury situation still isn’t great, but it’s eased a bit; at least Clyne and Lovren should return. Caulker and Ward are available to make their debuts. Brad Smith’s played well when called upon, Brannigan was one of Liverpool’s best players in the last round, and Allen’s in surprisingly good form. I’d also use both Ibe and Ojo for counter-attacking pace down both flanks, with Teixeira as the central playmaker, and – as against Exeter – Benteke up front, in the hopes that'll he turn into the player that Liverpool assumed they were buying.
It’s an understrength side, but it’s not a bad side. And given how Liverpool’s “full-strength” sides played in the last two matches against West Ham, I’m also not opposed to changes just for the sake of changing.
Unlike Liverpool, West Ham aren’t still in four competitions. West Ham didn’t play 120 minutes midweek. West Ham will make changes, but probably not many, and definitely not as many as Liverpool.
In the last round, a 1-0 win over Wolves, West Ham’s XI was Randolph; Jenkinson, Collins, Reid, Cresswell; Obiang, Song, Noble; Antonio, Jelavic, Zarate. That’s a decent starting point for guessing tomorrow’s XI. Jenkinson has returned to Arsenal after a serious knee injury last week. Zarate has been sold to Fiorentina. Noble’s doubtful through illness. Carroll, Lanzini, O’Brien, and Sakho are also injured.
With that in mind, and considering West Ham also have an important – if less difficult – league match on Tuesday, let’s guess Randolph; Byram, Collins, Reid, Cresswell; Kouyate, Song, Obiang; Antonio, Valencia, Moses. Starting both Valencia and Jelavic up front is a possibility (with Valencia ostensibly on the left), as are youngsters Cullen and Oxford (whose loan move to Charlton fell through) in midfield. Knowing how much he loves punishing Liverpool – a vital player in West Ham’s last three wins over Liverpool – Noble will probably make a miraculous recovery.
No matter who starts, Liverpool need to not do what they’ve done in three of the last four matches against West Ham. Actually play defense. Don’t concede stupid set plays, because you’ll probably concede a stupid goal from said set play. And don’t concede early; in the last three West Ham wins over Liverpool, West Ham scored in the 2nd, 7th, 3rd, and 10th minutes. From there, Liverpool have been unable to make amends, unable to break through an unsurprisingly deep defense after handing the opposition an early lead, a lead that opposition eventually extends on one or more counter-attacks.
The league is the league; Liverpool have disappointed, Liverpool are seventh, but Liverpool are only (“only”) eight points off fourth with 15 games to play. Fifth place is just three points ahead. Liverpool are in the League Cup final. Liverpool are still in Europe. Right or wrong (hint: right), this competition is Liverpool’s lowest priority.
Of course you want to win. Of course you want another cup run, remembering how trips to Wembley in both the League Cup and FA Cup in 2011-12 nearly saved Dalglish’s job. But it can’t, and it won’t, come at a cost to the squad, or at a cost to Liverpool’s other campaigns.
Again, West Ham is not Exeter, but the two legs against Exeter were fun (mostly…) because the kids were fun. Let’s have another opportunity to see if the kids are alright. They can’t do any worse than the senior players have against West Ham recently.
Last four head-to-head:
0-2 West Ham (a) 01.02.16
0-3 West Ham (h) 08.29.15
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.31.15
1-3 West Ham (a) 09.20.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Stoke aet (h); 5-4 Norwich (a); 3-0 Exeter (h)
West Ham: 2-2 City (h); 1-2 Newcastle (a); 3-1 Bournemouth (a)
Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Exeter (h), 2-2 Exeter (a)
West Ham: 1-0 Wolves (h)
Goalscorers (FA):
Liverpool: Allen, Ojo, Sinclair, Smith, Teixeira 1
West Ham: Jelavic 1
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Martin had a… let’s say “busy” match mid-week, in the semi-final between City and Everton. He’ll probably prefer to play less of a role in tomorrow’s contest.
Guess at a line-up:
Ward
Clyne Caulker Lovren Smith
Brannagan Allen
Ibe Teixeira Ojo
Benteke
West Ham is not Exeter. Not even close. West Ham currently sits two points ahead of Liverpool in the league, West Ham is a side that has beaten Liverpool – fairly handily – in three of the last four meetings.
I’d still play a team that looks a lot more like the XIs against Exeter than the XIs in the league or league cup.
I’d be hesitant to start any of the XI, except maybe Mignolet, tomorrow. Henderson, his foot problem still a problem, certainly won’t start, but none of the other nine outfield starters (all of whom played at least 85 minutes) will physically be 100%. In total, it was 120 draining, cup semi-final minutes – unsurprisingly, the most that Liverpool have run in a match this season. And Liverpool have an away match against the league leaders three days after this one.
The injury situation still isn’t great, but it’s eased a bit; at least Clyne and Lovren should return. Caulker and Ward are available to make their debuts. Brad Smith’s played well when called upon, Brannigan was one of Liverpool’s best players in the last round, and Allen’s in surprisingly good form. I’d also use both Ibe and Ojo for counter-attacking pace down both flanks, with Teixeira as the central playmaker, and – as against Exeter – Benteke up front, in the hopes that'll he turn into the player that Liverpool assumed they were buying.
It’s an understrength side, but it’s not a bad side. And given how Liverpool’s “full-strength” sides played in the last two matches against West Ham, I’m also not opposed to changes just for the sake of changing.
Unlike Liverpool, West Ham aren’t still in four competitions. West Ham didn’t play 120 minutes midweek. West Ham will make changes, but probably not many, and definitely not as many as Liverpool.
In the last round, a 1-0 win over Wolves, West Ham’s XI was Randolph; Jenkinson, Collins, Reid, Cresswell; Obiang, Song, Noble; Antonio, Jelavic, Zarate. That’s a decent starting point for guessing tomorrow’s XI. Jenkinson has returned to Arsenal after a serious knee injury last week. Zarate has been sold to Fiorentina. Noble’s doubtful through illness. Carroll, Lanzini, O’Brien, and Sakho are also injured.
With that in mind, and considering West Ham also have an important – if less difficult – league match on Tuesday, let’s guess Randolph; Byram, Collins, Reid, Cresswell; Kouyate, Song, Obiang; Antonio, Valencia, Moses. Starting both Valencia and Jelavic up front is a possibility (with Valencia ostensibly on the left), as are youngsters Cullen and Oxford (whose loan move to Charlton fell through) in midfield. Knowing how much he loves punishing Liverpool – a vital player in West Ham’s last three wins over Liverpool – Noble will probably make a miraculous recovery.
No matter who starts, Liverpool need to not do what they’ve done in three of the last four matches against West Ham. Actually play defense. Don’t concede stupid set plays, because you’ll probably concede a stupid goal from said set play. And don’t concede early; in the last three West Ham wins over Liverpool, West Ham scored in the 2nd, 7th, 3rd, and 10th minutes. From there, Liverpool have been unable to make amends, unable to break through an unsurprisingly deep defense after handing the opposition an early lead, a lead that opposition eventually extends on one or more counter-attacks.
The league is the league; Liverpool have disappointed, Liverpool are seventh, but Liverpool are only (“only”) eight points off fourth with 15 games to play. Fifth place is just three points ahead. Liverpool are in the League Cup final. Liverpool are still in Europe. Right or wrong (hint: right), this competition is Liverpool’s lowest priority.
Of course you want to win. Of course you want another cup run, remembering how trips to Wembley in both the League Cup and FA Cup in 2011-12 nearly saved Dalglish’s job. But it can’t, and it won’t, come at a cost to the squad, or at a cost to Liverpool’s other campaigns.
Again, West Ham is not Exeter, but the two legs against Exeter were fun (mostly…) because the kids were fun. Let’s have another opportunity to see if the kids are alright. They can’t do any worse than the senior players have against West Ham recently.
27 January 2016
Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Stoke aet [6-5 pens]
Previous Match Infographics: Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
Now that we're at the semi-final stage, WhoScored is finally collecting stats in this competition.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
Two sides that fully canceled each other out. Or, should have, had one of the linesman actually done his job. A match that was high in intensity and low on quality. A match that featured an absolutely garbage attacking performance from both sides, although some credit is due to the defenses, with Liverpool's attacking issues both familiar and frustrating.
Who cares? Liverpool are going to Wembley.
Liverpool were Liverpool, Stoke were Stoke (and more Tony Pulis' Stoke than Mark Hughes' Stoke), and a second leg semi-final was a second leg semi-final. Hard-fought and closely-matched, and not especially fun to watch, for either supporters or neutrals.
Almost the same side which scored five on Saturday probably wouldn't have scored in this match were it still going. Just 12 shots in 120 minutes. Just three inside the box. Just one in the Danger Zone. Just two on-target, both from Roberto Firmino. Just one marginally threatening: one of those Firmino shots, from Henderson's layoff on a set play, saved onto the post by Butland.
That's not good. That's really, really not good. Liverpool's attack hasn't been good in most matches under Klopp (or Rodgers, for that matter), but I'm still struggling to think of a less impressive performance. Maybe the 0-2 loss at Newcastle, where Liverpool took just 10 shots and put just one on-target – Lovren in the last minute – but even then, half of those shots came inside the box and Liverpool had a perfectly good (in fact, great) goal from Moreno wrongly ruled out.
It wasn't Liverpool's finishing which nearly cost the side, as is more often the case, but Liverpool's ability to create, Liverpool's decision-making, and Liverpool's shot selection. Stoke defended deep and defended well, but nine of 12 shots coming from outside the box – including all four before Stoke's goal – also demonstrates Liverpool's priority on defense. Or, at least, lack of prioritizing the attack. Take the speculative shot and maybe you'll get lucky, but more importantly, make sure you're in place to press then get back and defend.
Still, that wouldn't have mattered had the linesman done his job just before halftime. Sure, Liverpool still conceded from the first shot on-target – yes, again – but otherwise, it was a reasonably competent display in defense. Liverpool coped with Stoke's set plays, Liverpool coped with Stoke's crosses and long balls, Liverpool coped with Crouch's height.
Mark Hughes had obviously watched Liverpool's matches since the last meeting, starting Peter Crouch for just the fifth time this season – all in cup competition – to unsettle Liverpool's defense with height, crosses, set plays, and hoofs, with Jon Walters also coming into the side to muscle defenders and offer an option running in behind. But Liverpool's back line (which kept a surprisingly high line) did enough, winning the second ball if not the aerial duel enough, and blocking enough dangerous efforts (Sakho, most notably on Walters in the 55th minute, but also on Walters in the 62nd and Crouch in the 114th) when they didn't.
Stoke created just four shots from set plays: two very off-target headers from Bojan and Crouch, and two very off-target shots from distance by Johnson and Afellay.
And, again, that first Stoke shot on-target was very offside, and that was the one lovely attacking move of the match. For either side. Stoke had two other good chances: a hoof over the high back line to Walters in the first half, pushed wide of the far post, and van Ginkel's scramble through the middle in extra time off the woodwork – the second, after the "goal," of Stoke's two clear-cut chances. Liverpool, unsurprisingly, created none.
Then, Liverpool's rightfully criticized goalkeeper saved two Stoke penalties, while six of Liverpool's seven players kept their nerves (and Can's penalty didn't miss by much). Jack Butland, who has been one of the best keepers in the league this season, didn't get a hand to any of Liverpool's spot kicks, and went the wrong way on six of the seven; Mignolet saved two and nearly saved another, guessing the right way on five. Shoot-outs are weird.
But Liverpool have precedent here. Liverpool have now won 14 of the 17 shoot-outs they've been involved in, a record going back to 1974. And two of those losses have been in the last six years: against Northampton Town and Besiktas. That's remarkable. Unbelievable. And probably more than a little bit lucky. But winning begets winning.
If Liverpool play like that in most matches, Liverpool won't win most matches: slightly better than usual in defense, but very, very bad in attack. But this wasn't most matches. This was a knife-edge cup semifinal and Liverpool, despite losing on the day, still won.
And winning begets winning. And winning begets Wembley.
Now that we're at the semi-final stage, WhoScored is finally collecting stats in this competition.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
Two sides that fully canceled each other out. Or, should have, had one of the linesman actually done his job. A match that was high in intensity and low on quality. A match that featured an absolutely garbage attacking performance from both sides, although some credit is due to the defenses, with Liverpool's attacking issues both familiar and frustrating.
Who cares? Liverpool are going to Wembley.
Liverpool were Liverpool, Stoke were Stoke (and more Tony Pulis' Stoke than Mark Hughes' Stoke), and a second leg semi-final was a second leg semi-final. Hard-fought and closely-matched, and not especially fun to watch, for either supporters or neutrals.
Almost the same side which scored five on Saturday probably wouldn't have scored in this match were it still going. Just 12 shots in 120 minutes. Just three inside the box. Just one in the Danger Zone. Just two on-target, both from Roberto Firmino. Just one marginally threatening: one of those Firmino shots, from Henderson's layoff on a set play, saved onto the post by Butland.
That's not good. That's really, really not good. Liverpool's attack hasn't been good in most matches under Klopp (or Rodgers, for that matter), but I'm still struggling to think of a less impressive performance. Maybe the 0-2 loss at Newcastle, where Liverpool took just 10 shots and put just one on-target – Lovren in the last minute – but even then, half of those shots came inside the box and Liverpool had a perfectly good (in fact, great) goal from Moreno wrongly ruled out.
It wasn't Liverpool's finishing which nearly cost the side, as is more often the case, but Liverpool's ability to create, Liverpool's decision-making, and Liverpool's shot selection. Stoke defended deep and defended well, but nine of 12 shots coming from outside the box – including all four before Stoke's goal – also demonstrates Liverpool's priority on defense. Or, at least, lack of prioritizing the attack. Take the speculative shot and maybe you'll get lucky, but more importantly, make sure you're in place to press then get back and defend.
Still, that wouldn't have mattered had the linesman done his job just before halftime. Sure, Liverpool still conceded from the first shot on-target – yes, again – but otherwise, it was a reasonably competent display in defense. Liverpool coped with Stoke's set plays, Liverpool coped with Stoke's crosses and long balls, Liverpool coped with Crouch's height.
Mark Hughes had obviously watched Liverpool's matches since the last meeting, starting Peter Crouch for just the fifth time this season – all in cup competition – to unsettle Liverpool's defense with height, crosses, set plays, and hoofs, with Jon Walters also coming into the side to muscle defenders and offer an option running in behind. But Liverpool's back line (which kept a surprisingly high line) did enough, winning the second ball if not the aerial duel enough, and blocking enough dangerous efforts (Sakho, most notably on Walters in the 55th minute, but also on Walters in the 62nd and Crouch in the 114th) when they didn't.
Stoke created just four shots from set plays: two very off-target headers from Bojan and Crouch, and two very off-target shots from distance by Johnson and Afellay.
And, again, that first Stoke shot on-target was very offside, and that was the one lovely attacking move of the match. For either side. Stoke had two other good chances: a hoof over the high back line to Walters in the first half, pushed wide of the far post, and van Ginkel's scramble through the middle in extra time off the woodwork – the second, after the "goal," of Stoke's two clear-cut chances. Liverpool, unsurprisingly, created none.
Then, Liverpool's rightfully criticized goalkeeper saved two Stoke penalties, while six of Liverpool's seven players kept their nerves (and Can's penalty didn't miss by much). Jack Butland, who has been one of the best keepers in the league this season, didn't get a hand to any of Liverpool's spot kicks, and went the wrong way on six of the seven; Mignolet saved two and nearly saved another, guessing the right way on five. Shoot-outs are weird.
But Liverpool have precedent here. Liverpool have now won 14 of the 17 shoot-outs they've been involved in, a record going back to 1974. And two of those losses have been in the last six years: against Northampton Town and Besiktas. That's remarkable. Unbelievable. And probably more than a little bit lucky. But winning begets winning.
If Liverpool play like that in most matches, Liverpool won't win most matches: slightly better than usual in defense, but very, very bad in attack. But this wasn't most matches. This was a knife-edge cup semifinal and Liverpool, despite losing on the day, still won.
And winning begets winning. And winning begets Wembley.
25 January 2016
Liverpool v Stoke 01.25.16
2:45pm ET, live in the US on BeIN Sports
Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 01.05.16
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.09.15
1-6 Stoke (a) 05.24.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-4 Norwich (a); 3-0 Exeter (h); 0-1 United (a)
Stoke: 0-3 Leicester (a); 0-0 Arsenal (h); 3-1 Norwich (h)
Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 1-0 Stoke (a); 6-1 Southampton (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-1 Carlisle aet [3-2 pens] (h)
Stoke: 0-1 Liverpool (h); 2-0 Sheff Wed (h); 1-1 Chelsea aet [5-4 pens] (h); 1-0 Fulham (a); 1-1 Luton aet [8-7 pens] (a)
Goalscorers (League Cup):
Liverpool: Origi 3; Ibe, Sturridge 2; Clyne, Ings 1
Stoke: Walters 2; Affelay, Bardsley, Crouch 1
Referee: Jon Moss
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Flanagan Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Lucas Can
Milner Firmino Lallana
Once again, it'll be a familiar Liverpool, but once again, Jürgen Klopp has a few tough choices to make due to both recent and lingering injuries as well as fixture congestion.
You have to assume Lallana's replacing Ibe in the starting XI, Ibe noticeably unimpressive while Lallana changed the game, responsible for an assist to make it 3-3 and a 95th-minute goal to make it 5-4 on Saturday.
Lovren's available for the first time since his injury at Stoke, but does he return straight away or does Klopp stick with Toure and Sakho? Consistency in defense is usually a good thing, but might not be for a defense that conceded four goals to Norwich on Saturday, and eight goals in its last three matches.
Meanwhile, Nat Clyne's doubtful with a knee problem incurred against Norwich. Can he play through it, will Liverpool hand Jon Flanagan a first start since the last day of 2013-14, or will 20-year-old Connor Randall start in a cup semi-final, in what would be just his fifth-ever start for the club?
Can Lucas play another 90 minutes just three days, a third start in the last nine days? And if he can't, is he replaced by Allen – basically a straight swap – or Ibe or Benteke, switching Liverpool to more of a 4-2-3-1?
It's hard to draw many conclusions about Stoke's form from what they've done since the last meeting, because they've been consistently inconsistent. A narrow win with a much-changed side in the FA Cup. A straight-forward 3-1 home win over Norwich. A deserved but tepid 0-0 home draw with Arsenal, offering little in attack but excellent in defense. And finally, an absolute demolition by Leicester at Leicester, an emphatic 0-3 set-back, in a match where Stoke has to replace its captain and best defender in Shawcross due to injury, and where both Bojan and Arnautovic were protected due to minor injuries.
While nowhere near as bad Liverpool's casualty list, Stoke will be missing a couple of key players as well. Both Geoff Cameron and Shawcross will be absent. But after missing out against at Leicester, both Bojan and Arnautovic should be available.
Marc Wilson came on in place of Shawcross on Saturday, but Muniesa's also an option in central defense. In Cameron's absence, Affelay has played in central midfield with Whelan – as he did after Walters replaced Cameron at halftime in the previous meeting – with Bojan as the #10 and Joselu up front, but Hughes could play slightly more conservative tomorrow, with either van Ginkel or Adam partnering Whelan and Affelay further forward. And. lurking in the background, as seemingly always, is Jon Walters, a player who could start up front or in the attacking line of three, and a player who loves to face Liverpool.
Still, it's probably safe to assume that Butland; Johnson, Wilson, Wollscheid, Pieters; Whelan, Affelay; Shaqiri, Bojan, Arnautovic; Joselu will be the starting XI.
Can Liverpool do what they did in the last leg? There, Liverpool started the brighter side, took the game to Stoke, coped with injuries to Coutinho and Lovren, and made the breakthrough in the 37th minute. And for the next hour or so, Liverpool were pinned back, with Stoke dominating possession, attempting more shots (15) than all but one opponent that Liverpool faced since Klopp became manager. Stoke had more than 60% possession; Stoke completed more than twice as many passes as Liverpool.
But somehow Liverpool won, clinging on to its 1-0 lead, mostly smothering Stoke despite Stoke's overwhelming control, most of those 15 Stoke shots failing to threaten.
It was similar to how Liverpool beat both Leicester and Sunderland in the run-in to that match, even if Liverpool were the "better" side in both of those victories. it's certainly not how Liverpool have played since: conceding three against Arsenal, conceding one against United which was very much against the run of play, and conceding four – four! – against Norwich.
Can Liverpool be as diligent and secure, protecting their slender first-leg advantage, and maybe even extending that first-leg advantage? Will Liverpool sit back with seven or eight outfield players in their defensive half before counter-attack at pace with Firmino, Lallana, Ibe and/or Milner? Or will Liverpool look to take the game to Stoke, push the opposition back, searching for what would be a very helpful second goal before applying the breaks?
I've no idea. But it'll decide who travels to Wembley for a cup final: Stoke for the first time in this competition for 40-plus years, or Liverpool in Jürgen Klopp's first season. And both sides could desperately use the boost that a cup final brings.
Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 01.05.16
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.09.15
1-6 Stoke (a) 05.24.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-4 Norwich (a); 3-0 Exeter (h); 0-1 United (a)
Stoke: 0-3 Leicester (a); 0-0 Arsenal (h); 3-1 Norwich (h)
Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 1-0 Stoke (a); 6-1 Southampton (a); 1-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-1 Carlisle aet [3-2 pens] (h)
Stoke: 0-1 Liverpool (h); 2-0 Sheff Wed (h); 1-1 Chelsea aet [5-4 pens] (h); 1-0 Fulham (a); 1-1 Luton aet [8-7 pens] (a)
Goalscorers (League Cup):
Liverpool: Origi 3; Ibe, Sturridge 2; Clyne, Ings 1
Stoke: Walters 2; Affelay, Bardsley, Crouch 1
Referee: Jon Moss
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Flanagan Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Lucas Can
Milner Firmino Lallana
Once again, it'll be a familiar Liverpool, but once again, Jürgen Klopp has a few tough choices to make due to both recent and lingering injuries as well as fixture congestion.
You have to assume Lallana's replacing Ibe in the starting XI, Ibe noticeably unimpressive while Lallana changed the game, responsible for an assist to make it 3-3 and a 95th-minute goal to make it 5-4 on Saturday.
Lovren's available for the first time since his injury at Stoke, but does he return straight away or does Klopp stick with Toure and Sakho? Consistency in defense is usually a good thing, but might not be for a defense that conceded four goals to Norwich on Saturday, and eight goals in its last three matches.
Meanwhile, Nat Clyne's doubtful with a knee problem incurred against Norwich. Can he play through it, will Liverpool hand Jon Flanagan a first start since the last day of 2013-14, or will 20-year-old Connor Randall start in a cup semi-final, in what would be just his fifth-ever start for the club?
Can Lucas play another 90 minutes just three days, a third start in the last nine days? And if he can't, is he replaced by Allen – basically a straight swap – or Ibe or Benteke, switching Liverpool to more of a 4-2-3-1?
It's hard to draw many conclusions about Stoke's form from what they've done since the last meeting, because they've been consistently inconsistent. A narrow win with a much-changed side in the FA Cup. A straight-forward 3-1 home win over Norwich. A deserved but tepid 0-0 home draw with Arsenal, offering little in attack but excellent in defense. And finally, an absolute demolition by Leicester at Leicester, an emphatic 0-3 set-back, in a match where Stoke has to replace its captain and best defender in Shawcross due to injury, and where both Bojan and Arnautovic were protected due to minor injuries.
While nowhere near as bad Liverpool's casualty list, Stoke will be missing a couple of key players as well. Both Geoff Cameron and Shawcross will be absent. But after missing out against at Leicester, both Bojan and Arnautovic should be available.
Marc Wilson came on in place of Shawcross on Saturday, but Muniesa's also an option in central defense. In Cameron's absence, Affelay has played in central midfield with Whelan – as he did after Walters replaced Cameron at halftime in the previous meeting – with Bojan as the #10 and Joselu up front, but Hughes could play slightly more conservative tomorrow, with either van Ginkel or Adam partnering Whelan and Affelay further forward. And. lurking in the background, as seemingly always, is Jon Walters, a player who could start up front or in the attacking line of three, and a player who loves to face Liverpool.
Still, it's probably safe to assume that Butland; Johnson, Wilson, Wollscheid, Pieters; Whelan, Affelay; Shaqiri, Bojan, Arnautovic; Joselu will be the starting XI.
Can Liverpool do what they did in the last leg? There, Liverpool started the brighter side, took the game to Stoke, coped with injuries to Coutinho and Lovren, and made the breakthrough in the 37th minute. And for the next hour or so, Liverpool were pinned back, with Stoke dominating possession, attempting more shots (15) than all but one opponent that Liverpool faced since Klopp became manager. Stoke had more than 60% possession; Stoke completed more than twice as many passes as Liverpool.
But somehow Liverpool won, clinging on to its 1-0 lead, mostly smothering Stoke despite Stoke's overwhelming control, most of those 15 Stoke shots failing to threaten.
It was similar to how Liverpool beat both Leicester and Sunderland in the run-in to that match, even if Liverpool were the "better" side in both of those victories. it's certainly not how Liverpool have played since: conceding three against Arsenal, conceding one against United which was very much against the run of play, and conceding four – four! – against Norwich.
Can Liverpool be as diligent and secure, protecting their slender first-leg advantage, and maybe even extending that first-leg advantage? Will Liverpool sit back with seven or eight outfield players in their defensive half before counter-attack at pace with Firmino, Lallana, Ibe and/or Milner? Or will Liverpool look to take the game to Stoke, push the opposition back, searching for what would be a very helpful second goal before applying the breaks?
I've no idea. But it'll decide who travels to Wembley for a cup final: Stoke for the first time in this competition for 40-plus years, or Liverpool in Jürgen Klopp's first season. And both sides could desperately use the boost that a cup final brings.
Visualized: Liverpool 5-4 Norwich
Previous Match Infographics: Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
How do you summarize that? I guess we'll start with something that Liverpool did surprisingly well, for a pleasant change.
Liverpool actually finished their chances, for the first time in a long time. 13 shots is Liverpool's fewest since Watford (a), and the third-lowest since Klopp became manager. At the least, it's the first time in a long time without Daniel Sturridge – 6-1 at Southampton a mix of his prowess and opposition which seemingly gave up after conceding a third.
Seven of 13 shots on-target – 53.8% – is Liverpool's third-highest in the league this season behind 63.4% in 4-1 City (Liverpool at their absolute best) and 57.2% in 3-2 Villa (Sturridge).
Firmino's second, Henderson's, and Milner's goals were wonderfully taken, shots that each have struggled with this season. Firmino's first, which I initially thought was off-target, was probably going in anyway, and from a very acute angle. Only Lallana's winner seemed fortunate, hit into the ground, looping and unsaveable.
Saturday also saw the first time Liverpool have scored two clear-cut chances since that 4-1 win at Manchester City, only the second time it's happened in a league match this season.
Roberto Firmino finding form is, unsurprisingly, a massive part of these positives. Two braces in his last three starts, five goals and three assists (which should be four, if setting up an OG actually counted as an assist) in his six league starts as the lone striker: Norwich, United, Arsenal, Watford, City, and Chelsea. Three wins – where Firmino has three goals and three assists – two losses, and a draw.
But while Firmino has been crucial, Liverpool's improvement when it comes to both mid-game alterations and overcoming setbacks have been just as important, if not more so.
We've now seen eight goals from substitutes since Klopp became manager: six the league, one in each domestic cup. Those six substitute goals in the league have earned Liverpool seven points: a point against Southampton (a draw that should have been a win), a point against West Brom, two points against Leicester, a point against Arsenal, and two points at Norwich. Five substitute goals, five of the eight, with Liverpool either level or behind, all in the league.
The last time a Liverpool substitute scored under Brendan Rodgers? Mario Balotelli's penalty against Besiktas in the Europa League 11 months ago. In the league? Again, Balotelli, the winner against Spurs a week before Besiktas. Liverpool substitutes scored seven goals in total last season: four in the league, two in the League Cup, one in the Europa League: Balotelli 3; Coutinho, Lambert, Sturridge, Suso 1.
And then there's the fact that Liverpool actually came back to win despite going behind, something else that rarely happened under Rodgers. Last time it happened in the league? 3-1 at Leicester, December 2014. Under Klopp, Liverpool also did it at Chelsea in the league, against Bordeaux in the Europa League, and at Southampton in the League Cup.
The last time Liverpool came back from a two-goal deficit under Rodgers, in any competition? Never. Not even to draw, let alone win. If Liverpool went two goals down under the previous manager – which, to be fair, didn't happen all that often – that was it. Game over.
For all Liverpool's faults, for all the lingering issues that haven't improved under the new manager, self-belief and an ability to recover from misfortune have certainly gotten better. We've come a long way since Klopp mused about how alone he felt after Southampton's late equalizer at Anfield three months ago.
But there's also the argument that Saturday was irregular, out of the ordinary, and probably not often repeatable. Liverpool haven't won by this scoreline since May 2001, the UEFA Cup Final against Deportivo Alaves, needing extra time to achieve that result. That was the last time Liverpool let in four goals but still won the match; it hasn't happened in the league since April 1991, a 5-4 win at Leeds. Nearly 25 years ago. Before the Premier League was actually the Premier League.
Liverpool conceded three in the league three times yet still won in 2013-14 – 5-3 at Stoke, 4-3 v Swansea, 6-3 at Cardiff – but that was a nonsensical season in so many ways. Yet Liverpool never conceded four in a match that season, despite that defense's propensity for hilarity.
Since the beginning of 2005-06, in the last decade, Liverpool have conceded four in a league match just six times: Saturday; 1-6 at Stoke and 1-4 at Arsenal in 2014-15; 0-4 at Tottenham in 2011-12; 4-4 v Arsenal in 2008-09; 1-4 at Chelsea in 2005-06. It's not a common occurrence. It shouldn't be a common occurrence. And half of them have happened in the last calendar year.
So, yeah, there are still multiple problems at the other end of the pitch. Again. Conceding from a corner for the eighth time in the league. Conceding from the first shot on-target for the 13th time in the league. Conceding an equalizer just 11 minutes after taking a 1-0 lead; Liverpool have conceded within 20 minutes of taking the lead 10 times this season: Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, and Sion under Rodgers; Southampton, West Brom, Arsenal (twice) and Norwich (twice) under Klopp.
These are issues we've encountered before.
And every single goal that Liverpool conceded seemed preventable. Uncleared set plays for the first and fourth. Lucas and Can both fully aware where Naismith is before he starts his run for the second, both in position to track his run, neither bothering to actually track said run, with the added bonus of Naismith's no-angle shot sneaking in under Mignolet's wrist. An absolutely brain-dead Moreno penalty for the third, and another shot Mignolet could have saved – although, to be fair, any penalty save is an unexpected bonus.
Liverpool again allow few shots, but the ones they allow are good chances, even if Saturday's were less good than usual: needing a back heel, wide-box shot, out-box shot, and penalty. Still, six Norwich shots in total, four goals. One shot on-target saved from the last seven shots on-target faced. Liverpool's save percentage in the league is now below 60% for the first time this season, and still the second-worst in the league behind only Bournemouth.
Of course, I'm sure every single Norwich supporter feels the opposite about the goals. 'Ours were the good goals! Yours were either preventable or flukes! A back-heel! Naismith's excellent run! A deserved penalty! Bassong from long range! Rudd nearly saving Firmino's first, only for his touch to spin it into the net off the post; Henderson not tracked for the second, with another lucky touch from Firmino to set it up; the entire defense stupidly out of position for the third; an insane back pass for the fourth; two failed clearances and a mis-hit lucky finish for the fifth.'
But, yeah, that's football. And what Saturday reminded me, more than all the above statistics and opinion, is that football can be really, really fun. We haven't been reminded of that nearly often enough.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
How do you summarize that? I guess we'll start with something that Liverpool did surprisingly well, for a pleasant change.
Liverpool actually finished their chances, for the first time in a long time. 13 shots is Liverpool's fewest since Watford (a), and the third-lowest since Klopp became manager. At the least, it's the first time in a long time without Daniel Sturridge – 6-1 at Southampton a mix of his prowess and opposition which seemingly gave up after conceding a third.
Seven of 13 shots on-target – 53.8% – is Liverpool's third-highest in the league this season behind 63.4% in 4-1 City (Liverpool at their absolute best) and 57.2% in 3-2 Villa (Sturridge).
Firmino's second, Henderson's, and Milner's goals were wonderfully taken, shots that each have struggled with this season. Firmino's first, which I initially thought was off-target, was probably going in anyway, and from a very acute angle. Only Lallana's winner seemed fortunate, hit into the ground, looping and unsaveable.
Saturday also saw the first time Liverpool have scored two clear-cut chances since that 4-1 win at Manchester City, only the second time it's happened in a league match this season.
Roberto Firmino finding form is, unsurprisingly, a massive part of these positives. Two braces in his last three starts, five goals and three assists (which should be four, if setting up an OG actually counted as an assist) in his six league starts as the lone striker: Norwich, United, Arsenal, Watford, City, and Chelsea. Three wins – where Firmino has three goals and three assists – two losses, and a draw.
But while Firmino has been crucial, Liverpool's improvement when it comes to both mid-game alterations and overcoming setbacks have been just as important, if not more so.
We've now seen eight goals from substitutes since Klopp became manager: six the league, one in each domestic cup. Those six substitute goals in the league have earned Liverpool seven points: a point against Southampton (a draw that should have been a win), a point against West Brom, two points against Leicester, a point against Arsenal, and two points at Norwich. Five substitute goals, five of the eight, with Liverpool either level or behind, all in the league.
The last time a Liverpool substitute scored under Brendan Rodgers? Mario Balotelli's penalty against Besiktas in the Europa League 11 months ago. In the league? Again, Balotelli, the winner against Spurs a week before Besiktas. Liverpool substitutes scored seven goals in total last season: four in the league, two in the League Cup, one in the Europa League: Balotelli 3; Coutinho, Lambert, Sturridge, Suso 1.
And then there's the fact that Liverpool actually came back to win despite going behind, something else that rarely happened under Rodgers. Last time it happened in the league? 3-1 at Leicester, December 2014. Under Klopp, Liverpool also did it at Chelsea in the league, against Bordeaux in the Europa League, and at Southampton in the League Cup.
The last time Liverpool came back from a two-goal deficit under Rodgers, in any competition? Never. Not even to draw, let alone win. If Liverpool went two goals down under the previous manager – which, to be fair, didn't happen all that often – that was it. Game over.
For all Liverpool's faults, for all the lingering issues that haven't improved under the new manager, self-belief and an ability to recover from misfortune have certainly gotten better. We've come a long way since Klopp mused about how alone he felt after Southampton's late equalizer at Anfield three months ago.
But there's also the argument that Saturday was irregular, out of the ordinary, and probably not often repeatable. Liverpool haven't won by this scoreline since May 2001, the UEFA Cup Final against Deportivo Alaves, needing extra time to achieve that result. That was the last time Liverpool let in four goals but still won the match; it hasn't happened in the league since April 1991, a 5-4 win at Leeds. Nearly 25 years ago. Before the Premier League was actually the Premier League.
Liverpool conceded three in the league three times yet still won in 2013-14 – 5-3 at Stoke, 4-3 v Swansea, 6-3 at Cardiff – but that was a nonsensical season in so many ways. Yet Liverpool never conceded four in a match that season, despite that defense's propensity for hilarity.
Since the beginning of 2005-06, in the last decade, Liverpool have conceded four in a league match just six times: Saturday; 1-6 at Stoke and 1-4 at Arsenal in 2014-15; 0-4 at Tottenham in 2011-12; 4-4 v Arsenal in 2008-09; 1-4 at Chelsea in 2005-06. It's not a common occurrence. It shouldn't be a common occurrence. And half of them have happened in the last calendar year.
So, yeah, there are still multiple problems at the other end of the pitch. Again. Conceding from a corner for the eighth time in the league. Conceding from the first shot on-target for the 13th time in the league. Conceding an equalizer just 11 minutes after taking a 1-0 lead; Liverpool have conceded within 20 minutes of taking the lead 10 times this season: Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, and Sion under Rodgers; Southampton, West Brom, Arsenal (twice) and Norwich (twice) under Klopp.
These are issues we've encountered before.
And every single goal that Liverpool conceded seemed preventable. Uncleared set plays for the first and fourth. Lucas and Can both fully aware where Naismith is before he starts his run for the second, both in position to track his run, neither bothering to actually track said run, with the added bonus of Naismith's no-angle shot sneaking in under Mignolet's wrist. An absolutely brain-dead Moreno penalty for the third, and another shot Mignolet could have saved – although, to be fair, any penalty save is an unexpected bonus.
Liverpool again allow few shots, but the ones they allow are good chances, even if Saturday's were less good than usual: needing a back heel, wide-box shot, out-box shot, and penalty. Still, six Norwich shots in total, four goals. One shot on-target saved from the last seven shots on-target faced. Liverpool's save percentage in the league is now below 60% for the first time this season, and still the second-worst in the league behind only Bournemouth.
Of course, I'm sure every single Norwich supporter feels the opposite about the goals. 'Ours were the good goals! Yours were either preventable or flukes! A back-heel! Naismith's excellent run! A deserved penalty! Bassong from long range! Rudd nearly saving Firmino's first, only for his touch to spin it into the net off the post; Henderson not tracked for the second, with another lucky touch from Firmino to set it up; the entire defense stupidly out of position for the third; an insane back pass for the fourth; two failed clearances and a mis-hit lucky finish for the fifth.'
But, yeah, that's football. And what Saturday reminded me, more than all the above statistics and opinion, is that football can be really, really fun. We haven't been reminded of that nearly often enough.
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