Liverpool 3-1 Chelsea

Goals:
Ramires 4'
Coutinho 45+3' 74'
Benteke 83'

I think we can now say that this is a different Liverpool side.

Not necessarily tactically. Not even necessarily in performance; Liverpool played well, but had familiar issues with shot creation and in midfield, at least for the first 70 minutes or so.

The difference was in mentality. Liverpool hadn't won a league match after conceding first since a 3-1 win at Leicester in December 2014, hadn't won any match after conceding first since the FA Cup victory at Palace in February. Liverpool hadn't won any match after conceding in the first 10 minutes since a 6-3 win at Cardiff in March 2014. Since the beginning of last season, when Liverpool have conceded, Liverpool have often fallen apart, especially when needing to break down a deep defense after conceding early.

And a struggling Chelsea, at home, scored within four minutes: a breakdown against Azpilicueta and Hazard on Liverpool's right, neither Milner nor Clyne able to stop Azpilicueta getting in behind, then Moreno falling asleep on Ramires' run into the box, a free header bulleted past Mignolet.

It was exactly what didn't need to happen. Not only did it give Chelsea an unwanted lift, but Mourinho's teams are usually the absolute worst to play against with a lead: happy to defend as deep as humanely possible, but still capable of getting more on counters and set plays. And Liverpool have struggled to break down deep defenses for *checks watch* about 15 months now. And have been susceptible to counters and set plays for the same amount of time.

It's no coincidence Klopp said the following after last week's 1-1 draw against Southampton:

“There was still 10 minutes to go. We didn’t give up physically, it’s not that we stopped our game physically, but we didn’t believe anymore that we could turn the game around. That’s a problem, that’s why we’re not calm enough in the moments when we have the chances, the last pass and so on.

“I don’t understand this pressure at the moment, but the guys feel it. You can see that. They work so hard, they are full of concentration, full of readiness, full of passion, everything is there.

“And we conceded one goal and it felt like the end of the world – and it’s not the end of the world. It’s only a goal, you can always come back and that’s what we have to understand.”

And it actually happened.

All told, it was a very Premier League game. Liverpool continued with the few personnel changes and the high press, more a 4-2-3-1 than the 4-3-2-1 we've seen, but the same general pattern of play. The press – with Firmino up top – better than in the last two matches, the majority of players fresher after being rested midweek.

But it was more blood and thunder than individual flair, chances few and far between for more sides, excellent tackles and brutal fouls. Liverpool on top in possession – unsurprising, given Chelsea's early lead – and with more shots, but few of those shots threatening Begovic.

Then, just before halftime – 30 seconds past the added time, in fact – Philippe Coutinho's broken clock struck the correct time. Sustained Liverpool possession, Lucas spreading play wide to Milner after a failed Chelsea clearance, Firmino found in the box and a layoff to Coutinho, dancing around Ramires before a left-footed shot from the penalty arc found the far corner. I told you he should shoot more.

Honors even at the interval, and probably rightly so. Unsurprisingly, it lead to a more even second half, and an even more Premier League second half. Diego Costa could have been sent off for being Diego Costa, kicking Skrtel in the midsection as the two wrestled to the floor. Lucas could have been sent off for a second yellow, a clear foul on Ramires after he'd already been booked for persistent fouling. Tackles, tackles, and more tackles. Each side had spells of dominance, each side could have taken the lead – Milner and Lallana with decent opportunities off-target, Oscar nearly chipping Mignolet from 45 yards but the keeper just getting back – but real, honest-to-good chances remained few and far between.

Then, Coutinho again. Sakho's long cross-field pass to Benteke – on as a substitute for Milner in the 63rd – an aerial win knockdown helped on by Lallana, controlled, shifted onto his right foot just inside the box, a slight deflection off Terry taking it past Begovic. Regression to the mean. It seems Coutinho will keep shooting, no matter what. Every now and then, they'll go in: sometimes in bursts, sometimes after droughts. Today was a good day for them to go in.

And then Chelsea had to press. Liverpool shelled brilliantly, Liverpool nearly, then did, scored more on the counter. A huge save from Begovic on Moreno. Ibe's effort deflected narrowly wide. Then, Benteke, first winning Mignolet's long goal kick, then getting on Ibe's centered pass after Lallana's dummy, faking Terry and Cahill out of position before the finish. Goodnight, nurse. Goodnight, Jose.

Meanwhile, Chelsea's shots after going behind? Three swiftly blocked: from Kenedy, Oscar, and Oscar, and a Falcao header from a failed clearance that wasn't even close to the target. Three of those four shots came after Liverpool's game-sealing third.

Maybe we can add defensive resiliency to the aforementioned self-belief.

You want turning points? If Liverpool push on from here – and, admittedly, that remains a big if – this is about as turning point as you can get. A comeback win against the defending champions on their own ground, no matter their form. Three goals away from home for the first time in 10 months. The first win against Chelsea in the last nine meetings, beating a side that Liverpool's previous manager never won against.

I had forgotten what a fun football match felt like.

Liverpool at Chelsea 10.31.15

8:45am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (a) 05.10.15
0-1 (a; League Cup) 01.27.15
1-1 (h; League Cup) 11.08.14
1-2 (h) 04.27.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-1 Southampton (h); 1-1 Kazan (h)
Chelsea: 1-1 Stoke aet [4-5 pens] (a); 1-2 West Ham (a); 0-0 Dynamo Kiev (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke 3; Ings, Sturridge 2; Coutinho, Milner 1
Chelsea: Costa, Willian 2; Azpilicueta, Cahill, Falcao, Matic, Oscar, Pedro, Ramires, Zouma 1

Referee: Mark Clattenburg



Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Milner Lucas Can
Lallana Coutinho
Benteke

Benteke's available, so I'd be surprised if Liverpool deviated from what's become the "usual" XI. 4-3-2-1, the settled back four; Milner, Lucas, and Can in midfield; Coutinho and Lallana behind the lone striker.

I guess there are a couple other options. Maybe Benteke's available, but not fit enough to start. If that's the case, I suspect it'll be Firmino up front rather than Origi, even though the former played almost 90 minutes on Wednesday, his first start since an injury against Carlisle five weeks ago. He still provides more experience, more guile, and, most likely, a better chance of goals than the young Belgian, especially if Liverpool are forced to play on the counter.

Or maybe Liverpool stick with the 4-2-3-1-ish formation we saw against Bournemouth: Firmino (central) or Milner (on the right) in the line of three behind Benteke, with Lucas and Can as a deeper midfield pair, matching what'll almost certainly be Chelsea's starting formation.

Regardless of formation, we should see a more emphatic press than against Southampton or Bournemouth, with a strong XI that have had at least a bit of rest. Liverpool will be compact, but Liverpool – away from home against a team, regardless of record or form, that's still quite dangerous – will also look to counter more and will have less possession than we've seen in Klopp's previous matches.

Tottenham is probably the template. A quick, furious start away from home, fueled by the counter-press, but settling into a deeper routine as the match goes on, whether or not Liverpool take advantage of any prospective good start.

And a good start remains vital. Right now, Chelsea are a wounded animal. And you really don't want to give a wounded animal a respite.

Chelsea, to put it mildly, have not had the best of times lately. They've won just once in the last seven matches, a 2-0 home win over a dismal Aston Villa. They're 15th in the league. They've three points less than Liverpool, a Liverpool that fired its manager few weeks ago. Their top scorer – well, joint, both Costa and Willian – has just two goals. They've conceded 19 goals through 10 matches; only Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Norwich have let it more. It took 22 matches for Chelsea to concede 19 goals last season, not happening until mid-January.

They have been, to put it bluntly, a bad football side. Of course, that doesn't usually matter when facing Liverpool.

I will readily admit that I have thoroughly enjoyed all the karmic justice dished out to Mourinho et al since August. And I am fully expecting to pay for that gloating tomorrow.

Costa and Pedro will undergo late fitness tests, while Courtois and Ivanovic definitely out injured. Assuming both that are questionable start, Chelsea will be Begovic; Zouma, Cahill, Terry, Azpilicueta; Matic, Fabregas; Pedro, Willian, Hazard; Costa. If Pedro's out, Fabregas higher up the pitch with Ramires or Mikel in midfield, or Oscar in a central attacking role with Willian on the right, or Ramires on the right. If Costa's out, Remy or, less likely, Falcao in a straight swap. Maybe it'll be Azpilicueta at right-back with new signing Baba Rahman at left-back. Maybe, with Matic clearly off form, it'll be Fabregas and Mikel or Ramires and Mikel in midfield.

Chelsea, unsurprisingly, still have options. It's just that few of those options have worked out this season. As per usual, their biggest threats will come from set plays and counter-attacks.

Brendan Rodgers never beat Chelsea as Liverpool manager, with four draws and four losses in league and League Cup matches. Jürgen Klopp has a reasonable opportunity to do so in his first match. It seems to be an ideal time to face Chelsea. Or, as ideal a time as there is to face Chelsea.

Of course, it's much easier said than done.

Liverpool v Bournemouth 10.28.15

3:45pm ET, delayed coverage at 6pm ET on BeIN Sports USA (technically, it's available live at online-only BeIN Sports Connect, but that program works approximately never for me)

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.17.15
3-1 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 12.17.14
2-0 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 01.25.14
4-1 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.30.68

Last round(s):
Liverpool: 1-1 Carlisle aet [3-2 pens] (h)
Bournemouth: 2-2 Preston aet [3-2 pens] (a); 4-0 Hartlepool (a)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Southampton (h); 1-1 Kazan (h); 0-0 Tottenham (a)
Bournemouth: 1-5 Tottenham (h); 1-5 City (a); 1-1 Watford (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Benteke, Ings 3; Lallana, Sturridge 2; Can, Coutinho, Milner 1
Bournemouth: Wilson 5; Gosling, Murray, Pugh, Ritchie, Stanislas 2; Cook, Kermorgant, MacDonald 1

Referee: Mike Jones

Guess at a line-up:
Bogdan
Clyne Skrtel Toure Moreno
Allen Can
Brannagan Firmino Ibe
Benteke

You'd assume there'd be a plethora of changes: three matches in eight days prior, Chelsea to come three days after. But I still have no idea what to expect under this manager, and Liverpool's squad remains hamstrung by injuries, with the added bonus of Milner's suspension after his fifth yellow card.

There are a few under-21s in contention, I guess, although I'll readily admit I know little about them. Chirivella and Brannagan – who just signed a new long-term contract – both appeared at Bordeaux a month ago, Conor Randall's been on the bench in all three of Klopp's matches, Teixeira and Sinclair were on the bench in Klopp's first at Tottenham.

Coutinho, Lallana, and Lucas seemingly have to be rested. I'd suggest similar for at least three of Liverpool's four defenders, but Liverpool don't really have any other defenders. Even though Randall's made the bench in the last three matches, he's never played a first team minute. Jose Enrique? Still not a thing that exists. Is Lovren injured or just out of favor? So let's just say Toure for Sakho – as we'll forever remain worried about Sakho's ability to stay fit – and just hope the legs of other three don't fall off.

Allen will almost certainly come back into the side, one of the few players I'd guarantee to start. Were Rossiter available, he'd certainly start as well, but without, Liverpool's choices are Can again – the only player to feature in every match so far this season – or Chirivella.

Finally, the above also assumes starts for both Benteke and Firmino, ready from the beginning after substitute appearances against Kazan and Southampton. Maybe they're still not ready, maybe they'll be protected for Saturday. If not, well, Teixeira or Brannagan or (sigh) Coutinho or Lallana instead of Firmino; Origi or Sinclair instead of Benteke. Like Allen, Ibe's almost guaranteed to play, taking up one of the two or three attacking midfield berths, one of Liverpool's few second-choice options available and very much in need of game time.

We'll see a different Bournemouth side than Liverpool faced two months ago. Three starters – Callum Wilson, Tommy Elphick, and Max Gradel – are out injured, as is Mings and Arter, Bournemouth with as many injury problems as Liverpool have. At the same time, Eddie Howe rotated his side almost completely for both previous rounds.

If Howe sticks with the XI we've seen recently, it'll be something like Boruc; Francis, Cook, Distin, Daniels; Ritchie, Gosling, Surman, Pugh; Murray, King. If he rotates, Federici's an option in goal, Adam Smith at either fullback spot, O'Kane or MacDonald in midfield, Stanislas or Atsu on the flanks, Kermorgant or Rantie up front. Regardless, they'll line up as a 4-4-1-1/4-4-2, the formation seen in almost every fixture this season.

This is a Bournemouth side that's conceded ten goals in its last two matches: 5-1 losses at Manchester City and against Tottenham. It's tempting to say that it might finally be time for Liverpool to remember where the goal is, to score more than once for just the second time this season.

But we know better. Sure, it's a different Liverpool side and manager, but I can't help remembering the previous round, when Liverpool faced League Two opposition at home, a team which had conceded the most goals in all four English divisions, and proceeded to score just once from 50 or so shots, needing extra time and penalties to advance. And we'll continue to remember that, and all the other 1-1s, until shown different.

This fixture's become habit, the third consecutive season these sides have met in a cup match. Unfortunately for Liverpool, draws have also become habit, as we've loudly lamented over the last few weeks. Thankfully, Liverpool can't draw tomorrow, at least not at the end of the day, although we're still calling Carlisle one of the many 1-1s.

After Sunday, it feels like Liverpool need just one break for the dam to burst. Well, there's no time like the present.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Southampton

Previous Match Infographics: Rubin Kazan, Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



Shot accuracy? Shot location? Speed of Liverpool attacks? Yep, yep, yep. We've covered those before, in minute detail. They're still issues.

To sing a slightly different song, two of the above sections stood out: Liverpool's passing network and each side's tackles and interceptions.

The former clearly shows Liverpool's slow build-up and disconnect in attack. The latter shows how Southampton pressed more frequently and more effectively, and shut down Liverpool on the left – where Coutinho, Can, and Moreno attacked much more often than the players on the opposite flank.

Origi, his average position deeper than both Lallana and Coutinho, neither creating a chance nor taking a shot. Coutinho was on the pitch at the same time as Benteke and Firmino for 32 and 16 minutes respectively, but combined for just two passes with those two players: one to Benteke, one to Firmino, none in return. That's a terrifying lack of interplay from Liverpool's three best attackers. Also annoying: Coutinho once again led Liverpool in shots but created just one chance. Which was actually one of Liverpool's better chances: an excellent pass over the top to Lallana breaking into the Danger Zone, controlled but shot wide. Liverpool need more of that, and fewer speculative blasts from distance.

It was direct, it was quick, it was the type of pass that took multiple Southampton defenders out of the play. It was the type of pass that Liverpool didn't play nearly enough, far more comfortable poking and prodding and getting nowhere and then either losing possession or shooting from distance. Similarly, there was a lot of poking and prodding in the run-up to Liverpool's goal – a goal which also admittedly featured a fortunate poor touch from Mane to set up Milner – but it was Can's long cross-field pass to switch play, followed by a quick deep cross from Milner, which got Southampton's defense moving and created the space for Benteke to Benteke.

Yesterday's match actually saw Liverpool with more possession than in all but one fixture against Southampton since their promotion in 2012-13, with the 1-0 win over the Saints in December 2012 the only aberration, back in Rodgers' first season when Liverpool were still pretending at the "death by football" mantra.

After two difficult games this week, we saw an awful lot of Liverpool resting on the ball. We saw a distinct lack of counter-press, shown only by the away side, who had a full week between games. The only league matches where Liverpool had more possession than yesterday were the 3-2 win over Villa and 0-3 loss to West Ham, both at Anfield, and both against sides – West Ham's away form notwithstanding – worse than Southampton, at least at keeping the ball. Which allowed Southampton time to get settle and secure the defense, close down passing lanes in the final third, and block attempted shots.

Both Wanyama and Soares were outstanding defensively, combining for 12 tackles (all successful), the vast majority on Liverpool's left. 46% of Liverpool's attacks came down the left flank (21% central, 34% on the right), but Lallana and Milner – stationed on the opposite flank – created eight of Liverpool's 13 chances, including Milner's assist for Liverpool's lone goal.

Yet the following is arguably more important than any of the above statistics.

“What I saw after the draw (the equaliser), maybe this is the problem, when they made their goal, they were all so disappointed but it's football - you can receive goals, it's normal. But after this I think we had nine, ten, minutes to play so there is another chance, but there was no belief any more in the eyes and I told them – no contact between the players in this moment, nobody was able to push to say something positive in this moment.”
-- Jürgen Klopp

Which, I guess, is understandable after seven draws in the previous eight matches, six of those 1-1, five of those six finishing 1-1 after Liverpool scored first.

This, more than the impotence in attack, more than any errors or set play weaknesses in defense, is what needs fixing, is Klopp's biggest challenge. Both attack and defense will improve with more training time (the defense already has, to a certain extent, especially Sakho and Moreno), as the squad and manager become acclimatized to each other, as key players – Benteke, Firmino, Sturridge, Henderson – return to the side and to full fitness.

Liverpool needs to rediscover its self-belief. Good thing they now have a manager who specializes in that.

Liverpool 1-1 Southampton

Goals:
Benteke 77'
Mane 86'

For the eighth time in the last nine matches in all competitions, Liverpool have finished level. Seven ended 1-1. Six of those seven saw Liverpool score first and concede an equalizer within 16 minutes.

Sigh. The more things change...

There are all sorts of valid excuses as to why this happened and why it's not the end of the world. It's only Klopp's third match. Three matches in eight days limited Liverpool's ability to adapt to his system, especially the counter-press, while injuries limited Liverpool's ability to make changes to the XI.

And this was about as clear cut a case for post-Europa League rotation as you'll ever see.

There was little to mention from the first half. A match full of artisans, lacking in artists. Liverpool did well to control possession, to escape Southampton's intermittent high press, and to limit Southampton opportunities from open play. But Liverpool fatigue meant that there was little pressing from the home side, and Liverpool's lack of direct, pacey attackers meant Southampton had all the time in the world to get behind the ball when Liverpool entered their half.

Liverpool out-shot Southampton 9-4 in the first half, Liverpool had 60% possession. Only four of Liverpool's shots came inside the box: two off-target, two blocked. The lone shot on-target was a supremely tame left-footed effort from Lallana. Meanwhile, three of Southampton's four shots came inside the Danger Zone, including two on-target, and including a clear cut chance from a set play: Mignolet doing well to deny van Dijk after a defensive breakdown on a free kick. You may want to remember that moment.

Things got a little bit better in the second half, mainly because Benteke's introduction for Origi finally gave Liverpool a focal point, an actual, honest-to-goodness goal scoring threat. But for the most part, trends continued. Liverpool controlled tenor and tempo but Liverpool didn't do enough with it. Liverpool did well to limit Southampton's chances on the break, but Southampton did have a couple of chances to break. When Southampton took shots – again, just four in the half – they came from dangerous areas. Liverpool's build-up play was a little better, a bit more varied, but still too deliberate, and Liverpool continued to put the vast majority of its shots off target.

But then, Benteke. Milner's very deep cross, and Benteke absolutely trucking Jose Fonte, bursting to the perfectly placed ball and cannoning a 12-yard header past a hapless Steklenburg. It was more than reminiscent of Gestede's second goal for Villa last month – not the defender's fault, just basically unstoppable when the cross and finish are so good – and an excellent demonstration of why early crosses to Christian Benteke are so dangerous. Anfield erupted, Klopp charged down the sideline with a leaping fist punch. It was the first time Liverpool have scored a meaningful goal in the final 15 minutes of a match since Coutinho at Stoke on Opening Day. Finally, the turning point.

Ha. Hahahahahaha. Nope. We still can't have nice things.

We clearly saw the aforementioned fatigue, both physical and mental, in Southampton's equalizer. Liverpool's entire midfield gassed; Milner, Lucas, and Can struggling to keep up. None could be substituted, with Origi deservedly hauled off at halftime for Benteke and both Lallana and Coutinho even more exhausted, replaced by Firmino and Ibe.

And then Milner, not for the first time, was caught out by Mane's pace, forced to pull him down for a deserved yellow card (somehow, already his fifth of the season, now suspended for Wednesday's League Cup match). And then both Lucas (on Ramirez) and Milner (on Mane) were caught ball-watching as Southampton won multiple flick-ons from Ward-Prowse's free kick, experienced players who should both know better. And then Mane tapped in from less than a yard away, with just four minutes of normal time left, Liverpool and Anfield demonstrably drained.

Neither side even attempted a shot in the final seven minutes, highlighted only by Mane's sending off in the last minute of added time after picking up two yellows in 137 seconds. Somehow, it's even more fitting that when Liverpool conceded a late equalizer, the goal-scorer gets sent off soon after. It was too late to matter, only serving to waste precious seconds and only helping Southampton's next opponents.

It may well be lingering post-Klopp euphoria, but this still felt better than what we'd seen in the months before, in all those previous draws. Southampton are a better side than all but Tottenham, and unlike Liverpool, Southampton had eight days to prepare and an almost full squad to choose from. Benteke demonstrated the difference a real, experienced striker can make; Can remains remarkably busy and a vastly different player under this manager; Sakho and Moreno were quite good in defense. Liverpool's build-up remains too slow, Liverpool's squad remains too small thanks to injuries, Coutinho's form remains a concern. Liverpool (and Anfield) are still waiting for the other shoe to drop when something good actually happens. But these still seem remediable problems.

And unlike Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, Sion, Everton, and Kazan (sigh), 1-1 seems a fair result on the pattern of play. Liverpool had a bit more control of proceedings, Southampton had the better chances. So be it. Little by little, this team will get better, and maybe Liverpool might even win a game or two.

Liverpool v Southampton 10.25.15

12:15pm ET, live in the US on NBC (stupid UK Daylight Saving Time)

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 02.22.15
2-1 Liverpool (h) 08.17.14
3-0 Liverpool (a) 03.01.14
0-1 Southampton (h) 09.21.13

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Kazan (h); 0-0 Tottenham (a); 1-1 Everton (a)
Southampton: 2-2 Leicester (h); 3-1 Chelsea (a); 3-1 Swansea (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Ings, Sturridge 2; Coutinho, Milner 1
Southampton: Pelle 5; Tadic 3; Mane, van Dijk 2; S Davis, Fonte, Long 1

Referee: Andre Marriner

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Milner Lucas Can
Lallana Coutinho
Benteke

Is Benteke or Firmino fit enough to start up front, as Sturridge almost certainly isn't even fit enough to be in the squad? And will Liverpool make any other alterations to the XI we've seen in the last two matches?

Playing a pretty much unchanged team against Southampton a week after draining contests versus Tottenham and Kazan is admittedly asking for trouble. But Liverpool still don't have a lot of options. Chances are, we see the same XI which faced Tottenham but with Benteke in place of Origi, and a bit less full-throttle pressing.

With both Benteke and Firmino available, Klopp's "preferred" 4-2-3-1 seems more of an option. Two from Can, Milner, Lucas, and Allen in midfield; three from Coutinho, Lallana, Firmino, and Milner in attack; Benteke or Origi up front. Or maybe Klopp starts two up front: Benteke and Firmino or Benteke and Origi. The latter option seems far less likely; one of those players will be needed as break-glass-in-case-of-emergency on the bench and two of the three are just back from injury.

I suspect that, ideally, Liverpool will try to play this match similarly to the 2-0 win at Southampton last March. It'll be a different formation and a fairly different XI, but the ideas will be the same. Guns blazing from the opening whistle, look for an early goal to upset Southampton's plans, then shell shell shell. And Liverpool will very much have to shell – at times at best, for long stretches at worst – hoping that the defense continues to improve as it did against Tottenham and Kazan.

Last season, Southampton was built upon defense. Only Chelsea allowed fewer goals than Southampton's 33, which was 15 fewer than the Liverpool side which finished one place above them.

It's been a little bit different so far this season. Southampton have already conceded 12, two more than Liverpool. But they've been just a wee bit better up front.

In all competitions, Southampton have scored more goals in the last four matches (14) than Liverpool have scored all season (12). A 6-0 league cup win at MK Dons, 3-1 wins against Chelsea and Swansea, and a 2-2 draw against Leicester. I doubt I need remind that Liverpool have scored more than one goal in just one match this season. Southampton's top two scorers – Pelle and Tadic – have the same number of league goals as Liverpool in total. Only City, West Ham, Leicester, and Arsenal have scored more in the league than Southampton this season.

Stekelenburg and Jay Rodriguez are questionable – the former likely to return, the latter probably protected and on the bench due to his long-standing battle with injuries – while Long, Gardos, and Forster are definitely out. Which means a likely XI of Stekelenburg; Soares, Fonte, van Dijk, Bertrand; Wanyama, S Davis; Mane, Ward-Prowse, Tadic; Pelle. The same side, except for the returning Stekelenburg, which drew Leicester six days ago, with Southampton allowed a full recovery without a midweek match in the meantime.

Clasie and Romeu are options in midfield if Koeman wants a bit more solidity, with Davis capable of playing in the line of three or off the bench, while there's a reasonable chance we see Juanmi up front off the bench, but those seem the only other options.

Southampton have a settled side, a settled style, and a settled formation. Unlike their opponents, at least so far. And it'll look a lot like the style that Liverpool faced six days ago.

Immediately after promotion, Southampton became one of Liverpool's most difficult opponents, winning three consecutive meetings. Since then – since Liverpool began pillaging Southampton's squad – Liverpool have won three straight, by a 7-1 margin, the lone goal scored by now-Liverpool-player Nat Clyne.

But all of those matches have been closer than the score suggests, overmatched for long stretches both times at Southampton but resilient in defense and potent when given the chance. Those two traits have often eluded Liverpool over the last 16 months, and the inability to consistently demonstrate those traits eventually cost Brendan Rodgers his job.

Liverpool will assuredly need to be both of those things tomorrow.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Rubin Kazan

Previous Match Infographics: Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

What, you mean Klopp hasn't fixed all of Liverpool's problems in a week? JÜRGEN OUT, etc etc.

On the surface, that was a very Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool performance and there were an awful lot of uncomfortable familiarities.

• The result: Liverpool's sixth 1-1 draw in the last eight matches.

• Conceding a goal that Liverpool probably shouldn't have conceded, with the defense beaten by a long cross-field pass over the top and Devic in behind Clyne and Skrtel far too easily, although not many players will take a first touch as lovely as that.

• Liverpool's shooting: reasonably prolific – Carlisle aside, Liverpool's 35 shots were a high for both this season and last – but horribly inaccurate, with far too many efforts off-target or blocked, and far too many from outside the box. Just six shots on-target, with 19 off (including one off the woodwork) and 11 blocked.

• Liverpool scored just one goal from all those shots. Kazan scored one goal from just five. And four of those five shots came from inside the box, compared to just 14 of Liverpool's 35.

You have heard this song before. But there were a few important differences as well.

35 shots vastly outnumbered any total that Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool accumulated in Europe. The previous high under the previous manager was 23 shots against Ludogorets last season. That was the only time a Rodgers side took more than 20 shots in a European match. Liverpool averaged 13.8 shots per match in Rodgers' 18 European contests (not counting qualifiers against Hearts and Gomel, which I don't have stats for).

Unlike against Sion, only two of Liverpool's 35 shots were clear-cut chances: Can scoring once, Benteke missing the other in the 74th. Liverpool had six against Sion: the first scored by Lallana, the subsequent five either saved (4) or blocked (1). Liverpool weren't quite as wasteful as they were in the last 1-1 European home draw, their opponents were (necessarily) more focused on defense.

It's not easy to break down a 10-man side, especially one that has no need to come out. Liverpool at least did well to create chances and get into some decent positions against a team that, down a man, desired to do nothing but defend. They varied their build-up, attempting both crosses and playing through the middle, trying one-two one-touch passes and running at defenders, rather than the often staid stuff we saw earlier this season and last. Benteke and Firmino were clearly rusty, Origi's only 20, Coutinho's poor form continues (although he was at least creating chances in addition to taking speculative shots), almost every player showed the effects of tiredness after a difficult match at Tottenham four days earlier.

If Liverpool continue to create that volume of shots – especially when they out-shoot their opponents by 30 – I'm fairly confident Liverpool will usually score more than one goal and Liverpool will win more matches than they lose or draw.

And Liverpool had lost six of the last seven matches when conceding first, going back to the last time they won after conceding first: at Palace last February in the FA Cup. At United, against West Ham, at Hull, at Arsenal, against United, at Besiktas. The only exception was a draw at Chelsea last May – a Chelsea who'd already clinched the league – Gerrard's headed equalizer after Terry gave Chelsea the lead.

It is a good thing that Liverpool rarely conceded first, in just seven out of the previous 30 matches. It is a bad thing that Liverpool almost never got back into the game if they did concede first. At least that wasn't the case yesterday, keeping unrelenting pressure on Kazan's defense for the final hour.

Can, Lallana, and Sakho – players who were misused and/or underused under Rodgers – were all excellent, for the second successive match. That's no small matter either.

So, yes, there's still quite a bit of progress that needs to be made. And the majority of it is at the sharp end of the pitch. We knew (or should have known) that'd be the case. But, despite a disappointing draw, the second consecutive draw under Klopp, there are some good signs.

Liverpool v Rubin Kazan 10.22.15

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Tottenham (a); 1-1 Everton (a); 1-1 Sion (h)
Kazan: 3-1 Ufa (h); 1-2 Terek Grozny (a); 0-0 Bordeaux (h)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Kazan: 0-0 Bordeaux (h); 1-2 Sion (a); 1-0 Rabotnicki (h), 1-1 Rabotnicki (a); 1-1 Sturm Graz (h), 3-2 Sturm Graz (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2
Kazan: Kanunnikov, Karadeniz 2; Carlos Eduardo, Kuzmin, Portnyagin 1

Referee: Robert Schörgenhofer (AUT)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Allen Can
Milner Coutinho Ibe
Origi

An entirely different manager, an entirely new attempt to gauge how seriously that manager will take this competition. If Klopp puts out a full-strength XI – and that's a fairly big if – I can only see a couple of changes: Ibe for Lallana or Coutinho, and Allen for Lucas or Can.

Even if Klopp wanted to, there are few options for alterations. Ings, Gomez, and Flanagan are out for months; Henderson and Rossiter for a little while longer. Sturridge, Benteke, Lovren, and Firmino are back in training, but none will start – or probably even play – until Sunday at the earliest.

I remind: Liverpool's bench on Saturday was Bogdan, Toure, Allen, Ibe, Randall, Teixeira, and Sinclair. Other than Ibe, Allen, and possibly Toure, if there are changes, it'll be youth players getting a chance. There were the three on the bench on Saturday – a right back, attacking midfielder, and striker – but Chirivella, Brannagan, and Maguire are also remote possibilities. Maybe, under a new manager, Jose Enrique is once again a thing that exists, but I doubt it. (Whoops. Derped that. Neither Enrique nor Teixeira are registered for the EL. Thanks to wides in the comments).

So you balance who's actually available with the regular starters you're most concerned about. Lucas rarely played three matches in a week under Rodgers. Lallana rarely plays 80+ minutes, rarely starts multiple matches in a matter of days, and ran an awful lot on Saturday. We're always concerned about Sakho's number of matches and ability to stay fit. Emre Can has still featured in every match this season.

In addition, Sunday's clearly the more important, tougher fixture, but if Liverpool want to qualify for the knockout rounds, Liverpool probably need to win this match. Sion have four points, Bordeaux and Liverpool two, Kazan one. Liverpool will only have one more home match after this. Advancement isn't impossible with a draw or even a loss tomorrow, but it makes doing so infinitely harder.

At the same time, it's not as if Liverpool's opponents are in sparkling form. Kazan's home win against second-to-bottom Ufa last weekend was Kazan's first win in any competition since September 12. After 12 matches, they sit 12 in the 16-team Russian League, with three wins, a draw, and eight losses.

Midfielder Kislyak is suspended after two yellows against Bordeaux, with Georgiev the most likely replacement – although he's also questionable after missing the weekend match through injury – but otherwise, my best guess at an XI is the same which Kazan started in both their last league match. Ryzhikov; Kuzmin, Kverkvelia, Kambolov, Nabiullin; Ozdoev, Georgiev; Kanunnikov, Carlos Eduardo, Karadeniz; Portnyagin.

Maybe ex-Evertonian Diniyar Bilyaletdinov – who has received fewer opportunities since his father was fired in September, replaced by Valeri Chaly – comes into the side. Maybe Marko Devic, a former Ukrainian international, starts up front in place of the struggling Portnyagin or alongside him. Kanunnikov can start up front or on the flanks; Carlos Eduardo as the #10 or out wide. Rubin Kazan, unlike Liverpool, seemingly have options. It's just that I'm not entirely sure what those options entail or which will be preferred.

It'll be interesting to see how Liverpool under Klopp respond to the pressure of expectations. Everyone was on a high following Klopp's appointment at Tottenham – and, to be fair, still are – and considering each side's respective forms and venue, anything earned at White Hart Lane, any progress, even marginal, made would be a bonus.

That's not the case tomorrow. Liverpool are at home, for Klopp's Anfield debut. Liverpool are deservedly favored. Liverpool are the better side. Liverpool need to win. How will Liverpool react?